Fantasy Football Week 4 RB Rankings: Biggest Risers, Falls & Start/Sit Decisions (Ep. 2230)

This is an I Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, what's up? I'm Tony Gonzalez. And I'm October Gonzalez. But you can call me Toby. We want you to join us on our new podcast No Safe Words with October and Tony Gonzalez. We get real about marriage, parenthood, sex, divorce, and all the nitty gritty stuff we all think about, but just don't say out loud. You're probably just going to be some rich guy and he's going to whisk you away. Listen to No Safe Words with October and Tony Gonzalez on the I Heart radio app. Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Welcome into fantasy pros. The fantasy football podcast. This is the running backs. Rink episode. Terror Roberts here filling in for my dear friend, Chris Welsh. On the rankings shows this week and I've got Pat Fitzmorris in Andrew Ericksen here with me as well. And I know that people are in dire need of the sage advice here from Fitz and Ericksen because we took a triple whammy at running back this week with the loss of Devon agent for the season. Breeze Hall down with the quad injury and Travis ETN down with a hamstring injury and a wide variety of other running backs that have just been wildly disappointing. So before we dive into all of that, I did want to give a shout out to our top accuracy rancors this week. Congratulations to our number one rancor Chris Dell with the fantasy edge. And then at number two, we had John Hesterman, dynasty league football, and then Sean corner with the action network. And then special shout out special fantasy pros shout out to Kelly Kirby who came in at six from fantasy pros. And you can find all the expert rankings at fantasy pros dot com slash rankings. Now Fitz and Ericksen, long time no see. I feel like I have not seen you guys in forever. I see Welsh every single week, but I haven't seen you guys since draft season. But Fitz, how's the house that early season treating you? Well, we were commiserating about our green day packers before the show, Tara. So that's not going well and rankings didn't go well either. So hopefully you're going to change the mojo for us because Ericksen and I both tanked last week. And we are looking for a rebound. Good luck. This is where we all bounce back. And then Ericksen, how about you? You don't have our packers, woes, but you do have your own woes, right? My own patriot woes, if you guys listen to the tailgate show, talk about how bad Drake May has been. The eye test also does not pass for Drake May, but I would say in regards to the one positive side about all these running back injuries. There's no concern about which H and you're starting this week or which H and you're talking about because neither guy's playing, especially with though on H and out for the season. So there's no question marks about which H and are you talking about? So that's the one silver lining in another week, just devastated by more injuries. I mean, if you basically, my entire our entire team that we drafted fits on their auction league is on IR dude, there's no one left. We had H and we had Puka. I mean, all these guys just devastated by injuries and yeah, we are staring at 0 and 3 and. I mean, last week, who do we, I picked up Kobe Young thinking that he might be able to help out the squad, he immediately gets hurt. So again, that team is not looking like it's going to be strong finisher. Yeah, it's nasty one. I've turned to in our in our fantasy pros league. I turned to keen and Alan. Hopefully again, again, make that work on that end because it is thinning out lost breeze hall lost on Devon agent. It's just been a complete mess in general, but we are here to get back on track and talk about the guys that are healthy and active and they're going to give us fantasy points and make everything wonderful, wonderful for us. Let's start off here talking about the top 12 in rankings starts off at the top, obviously with our boy, Jamir Gibbs and a great matchup against Carolina. Then we've got B. John Robinson at New Orleans, Kenneth Walker, Derek Henry, good matchup as well. We got nice strong good matchups, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor at six. Then there's James Cook, Ashton Gentie going strong Jeremiah love coming up in the rankings there as well. We'll talk about him here in a second, Kyron Williams, Chase Brown, and then Jalen Warren creeping up in the top 12 after the big week on a short week here at Cleveland, perhaps a little low scoring game, but with no Rico doubtful anticipated. Yeah, we are looking at another hefty volume week for Jalen Warren, so I totally get it. But let's talk about one player specifically from this grouping and mention that it is the Jeremiah love that we didn't want to talk about coming in here at ECR ranking number eight. And we had our skepticism's this preseason with the injury and then the workload immediately the split early with Tyler Algier getting worried, but he is coming in strong. So Erickson, you are on par here with ECR at RB nine fits. You've got him a little bit lower, but still strong still topped a 12 at RB 12. Erickson, talk to us about Jeremiah love. He just completely took over the Arizona Cardinals backfield last week, going for 21 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown caught all five his targets for 19 yards, 64% snap share. And when you include plays eliminated by penalties, he actually total 23 carries for 94 yards. So on the day, 29 total touches when you're including plays negated by penalty. He had 21 of 23 Arizona rushing attempts where Algier was completely neutralized in terms of what his role in his backfield, but so he did play a lot of snaps, but that was because of third down pass protection. Love has come to check off all the boxes in terms of he's getting short yardage opportunities. He converted to 31 convert third and four. So he has not been necessarily been taking out at the goal line at certain times. The Algier can still kind of be an annoyance there, but I still think that love has the three down scale set. So regardless, however, this game goes against the New York Giants on the road, whether they're trailing, whether they're winning, Jeremiah love is going to be out there and he's going to be the more efficient back compared to Tyler's year. Algier's role has shrunk in two straight games. You're seeing his carries go down week by week, whereas loves is going up by week. You just looked at ruching success rate. Love is at 44%. 3.9 yards per carry. Tyler's year is at 29% at 2.9 yards per carry. And I know they asked the question. This is from the coach speak index. They asked the floor if they expect love to kind of continue on this increased workload. He said, we'll do what we think is necessary each week. So he did kind of leave the door open to like, well, maybe we could go back to Tyler's year, but it's like, maybe you don't because like your rookies really, really good, and he's way better than the veteran. So why don't you continue to feed him, especially in a good match up here against the New York Giants. So that's why I have in my army nine top 10 running back. Yeah. And in general, you know, the Cardinals, we knew this was tough sledding coming in because of the schedule, but overall, you know, just from, you know, visually and statistically as well, they've been competing and they look good. So perhaps they've got it in their mind that, you know, hey, this doesn't need to be a tank season. We have options and maybe we want to push forward get morale going. And it's been against difficult matchups. Again, we had the L.A. Chargers in Seattle, San Francisco. So to see this ramp up over a pretty tough defensive stretch. And now we get into an easier little time period here. After this, we get the lion. So yeah, this is really positive. How are you feeling in terms of confidence level fits about Jeremiah love? Pretty good. Like I have no real beef with this ranking love is terrific. And it did feel like week three was a full unveiling of him after he played 42.7% and 40% of the Cardinals offensive snaps the first two games probably because he was still recovering from that high ankle sprain. He's sustaining Arizona's first preseason game. But yeah, even in those first two games with the limited work, the Cardinals were pretty eager to get the ball in his hands. So in those first two games, he got a carry or a target on 52 point just 52% of his snaps. And then last week with the bigger snap share 21 carries 90 yards, five catches. We love seeing the five catches. So yeah, I don't think the giants are quite as juicy a match up in the running game as they were last year. They've held two of their first three opponents to 81 or fewer rushing yards. But in the other game, they did get trampled by the Rams, mostly because their offense couldn't pick up a first down. But I mean, love could absolutely smash this week like he is the real deal very talented. And now he's got the role befitting his talents. That's true. And great point about the match up as well. They they are suffering some defensive injuries over there. Unfortunately for the Giants, so perhaps it'll help let up a little bit moving forward here. Before we dive into the next grouping of running backs, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called polymarket. It is a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20% you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $50 on your first trade when you deposit just $10. So download the polymarket app today and use FF F P O D when you sign up that's F P P O D to get $50 free after you trade just 10. All right, let's dive into our next grouping. We're going to do running backs 13 through 14 leading off at 13. We've got Sequan Barkley against the LA Rams, Chuba Hubbard against Detroit, Deandre Swift in the will will see was case key. I'm going to keep his job this week after the pretty spectacular Monday night performance here. And we have the Jets coming up this week. Then Javonte Williams, difficult matchup at Houston, Aaron Jones, Miami, Facial Tutan, and Cincinnati defense came apart last week. Cam, Skataboo versus Arizona, lucky Irving. Yeah. and versus the sad Green Bay Packers that Pat and I are just in shambles about, that we got David Montgomery coming in at 21. Braille and Allen creeping up here in the rankings, going to be taking over, hopefully a hefty workload, not the most ideal matchup in the world against Chicago, but they have been vulnerable against the run. So this could be a very interesting spot. So I'd like to see him in the top 24, right off the bat from Rinkers, that Amari and Hampton at 23 and Quincheon Judkins holding on strong here at 24, getting that priority as a lead back again, that Thursday night football game against Pittsburgh. All right, let's pull out several names. Let's start off right here at the top of this grouping, talking about Sequan Berkeley. ECR RB 13, Erickson, a little bit higher, nice with RB 10 and then FITS, RB 13. FITS, you're right on par with ECR. So talk to us about Sequan Berkeley. - Yeah, I actually moved him back a spot to RB 14. I moved Aaron Jones ahead of him today. Like the Eagles offense just, it hasn't really looked that much better under new offensive coordinator, Sean Manian, than the Eagles offense that struggled so badly with Kevin Petillo as the OC last year. Eagles are 17th in offensive, DVOA 14th in yards per play, and they've played the commanders, Titans and Bears, not exactly a murder's row of defenses. So although in fairness, the commanders' run defense has been really good. But Sequan doesn't have a touch down this season, although he did miss the sizable portion of the Titans game with a stinger. He hasn't been very involved in the passing game. One catch in each of his first three games, his three receptions have netted him six yards. And the Eagles offense of line, just not the top drawer unit that it was only a couple of years ago. The Rams, not an easy matchup. They've allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs. I mean, this is a gentle fade for me. Being one spot behind ECR, you're still starting to stay with Sequan if you have him, but it's been not that great if you've been a Sequan investor so far. - Yeah, it's funny. You get the worry from people saying, okay, is this the point at which Sequan is cooked? And quite frankly, he's been over five yards per carry in both of his two full games. So from his perspective, it's not as if he's underperforming, but as you mentioned, this Eagles offense, it's just up and down and underwhelming. They've been, prior to that Monday night game, they were winning like just by a threat against subpar competition, so not shocked that they could not come through against Chicago. Very interesting to see how they can try to progress in the offense moving forward. Erickson, you're a little bit higher this week, more optimism in this matchup. - Yeah, 'cause I think and fits alluded to this and so did you that it's really more like the environmental factors that are kind of hurting Sequan. He himself like hasn't looked bad. Like obviously he missed a lot of week two, so you kind of have to throw that out. But in his last game against the Bears, like that's when he ripped off the most explosive runs, 15 carries for 82 yards on the day, and then he got a game scripted out, right? We're in the second half. They really couldn't lean on Sequan, but he gets the full workload, 72% snap share. They don't try, I mean, tank pigs, but every single time it touches the ball, he just makes a mistake. It seems like some of you fumbled his one target and catch, played 4% of the snaps, well, Shipley played 26%. So there's no outstanding effects from the Stinger Ranger that he suffered in a week two, because it seemed like they were going right back to him. So the Pass Game usage obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but this was something that was interesting from next Gen stat. So Barca is recorded in average speed of 11 miles per hour on cross in the line, is scrimmaged to the season. That's the second fastest mark among 36 running backs with at least 25 carries, trailing only Jacksonville Jaguar is running back, Bay shell two. And so clearly the juice is still a little bit there with Sequan Barca. It's just a matter of the offensive line, not necessarily creating enough holes for him. And if you look at the RAM specifically, six lowest stuff rate so far this season, and they've been doing when have, when Sequan Barca has ripped off these explosive runs, it's mostly been on outside zone concepts according to next Gen stats. And I think that's an opportunity where they can potentially take advantage of the RAM's defense. The RAM's defense has contact and opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage on just 32% of the carries. That's the seventh lowest rate in the NFL. So if there is an opportunity for the offensive line to create some more opportunities for Sequan, he is showing that he can still hit the hole really fast and rip off some big plays. And I just think when you look at this Ego's offense as a whole, he's like the one thing, the one kind of bright spot that is kind of working somewhat. And it's the rest of the team that's kind of letting him down. So that's why I have him as a low end fantasy RB1 just because he's gonna get a lot of touches. And if the Ego's can at least keep this game close with the Los Angeles Rams, then he's gonna be heavily involved. And eventually he's gonna find the end zone, right? He is too talented, too involved in the Ego's offense, overall, to go without scoring for so many, so many weeks. - Let's talk about someone who also has potentially another matchup issue, Devonte Williams, ECR, RB16. Erickson, you've got him at RB16 and Fitzgerald, RB18. Matchup against the Houston Texans, a defense who has traditionally been strong against the run. And they've had their ups and downs, but one thing that has not been up and down is the strength that they've had against the running backs. Running back groups against the Houston Texas have not unfortunately exceeded 100 yards total yet. They're still first in fantasy points, least fantasy points allowed to running backs. So they're holding strong, despite the offense, hanging them out to dry, unfortunately there. So Fitz, when we look at Devonte Williams, is there a little bit of reason to be skeptical about him this week or worried? - I think there is, Tara, and you mentioned it. It's matchup first of all. Texans are giving up 10.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. Second fewest in the league, only behind the commanders. They're giving up 3.6 yards per carry to running backs. And Devonte hasn't been terribly efficient to begin with. He's averaging 3.9 yards per carry. He's slightly underwater and expected points added per carry, negative number there. I mean, we can just lean into the volume. Devonte's had 17, 15, and 21 touches in his first three games. And he's 12th in PPR fantasy points per game. Ninth in expected fantasy points per game. I just don't expect him to be real efficient in this matchup, which is why I see him as more of a mid-range running back to then sort of a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2. - Yeah, safe floor, probably not the best ceiling in the world this week, Erickson. What are your thoughts around Devonte Williams? - Yeah, I was lower on Devonte last week for concerns about his lack of rushing efficiency through the first two weeks of the season. And then, of course, the Ravens have Matt and Bouquet back. They have their starting linebacker back. And then, of course, Devonte Williams basically has 100 yard rushing yards for the first time ever. So, go figure. The healthiest Ravens defense doesn't stop. Juggernaut, Javonte, William. So, agreed the matchup is tough on paper against the Houston Texans. Fifth, the fewest rushing yards a lot per game this season. Fourth, the fewest yards per carry. And we just look at him matchup against these other running backs in this tier that you listed out. A lot of them are just much better spots. Right, guys that are projected to be bell cows and just against softer defenses. So, I think by default, you just move those guys slightly ahead of Javonte. But if Javonte scores two touchdowns because the Dallas Cowboys move the ball against the Texans defense, that is really good. But has not been the same unit that it was last year where it was suffocating and winning games on its own. Well, then you're finding an opportunity where Javonte can still deliver potentially a fantasy RB1 if he finds the end zone twice. 'Cause he's so clearly their red zone running back. He had a lot of opportunities even last week. He got stuff at the one yard and still end up scoring a different touchdown. So, he has multi touchdown upside regardless of whatever matchup he is in. And just, no one else is really threatening his workload. Like last week Deemercrow didn't even play. They bet Tyler Goodson was like, who's this guy? Who's Goodson? Like I'm watching the Brazil game. Like, who is that? Is that Tyler Goodson? So, they're still trying to figure out like who the RB2 is even behind Javonte because he's so clearly the workhorse in this backfield 76% snap share 19 carries last week. So, and it's all so ironic too, if it's how we were talking about Javonte last week. He's like, hey man, well, the receiving has been like a lot better this year. And then he goes out, has his best Russian game and then has negative five receiving yards. - That is hilarious. I mean, I think you nailed it really with the fact that Javonte is, he's still in, it's a terrible matchup but he's still in that range of, this is an unquestioned workhorse running back. And then after that, you know, you get into the guys who have questionable team situations with shaky quarterbacks like a cam scatabo despite a great matchup. You know, what's the split there with a basal tuton? How much are we trusting this next guy that we're going to talk about here, Braylon Allen, who is presumably stepping into a pretty hefty workload there in New York. And it's an interesting matchup. We've got against Chicago. We mentioned that, you know, say Juan Barclay against them was not really dreadful just think of the touchdown. So, I think there's opportunity here. So, I was happy to see that we're not being too apprehensive because the people, the people want to know how comfortable should we be starting Braylon Allen this week. ECR has him at RB22, fits your RB21. Ericsson, you're at RB23. So, we're splitting the difference on that one. Ericsson, I mean, we're right around it. So, there's obviously no massive concerns here but how much are you trusting Braylon Allen this week? Modern, moderately optimistic, I say, with Braylon Allen, I think that we're probably going to get more Isaiah Davis than anybody would care to admit. But that may not matter because I think that what Braylon Allen has done through the first three weeks of the season, he is showcased to the Jets coaching staff that he could handle a three-down workload because if you look at in week one, he had an explosive run for a touchdown that was called back due to a penalty. But still, he showcased, hey, I can create big plays even as a big bruising running back. I can still be. explosive in the run game, especially when it's a favorite matchup, like you have here against the Chicago Bears. Then in week two, it was goal line usage. So they're also trusting him in the red zone, even when Breeze Hall has been active in the lineup. Brandon Allen is still a player that they lean on a lot in the red zone at times. And then in week three, I think that he was actually kind of under the radar impressive as a receiver, right? He's still getting targets. So when you include plays and negated by penalties, he actually had four targets last week. So through three weeks, we've seen explosiveness. We've seen red zone usage and we've seen receiving. You throw in that. He's also a 22nd in rushing success rate on the season. Like we're packaging up together like a really strong RB2 play when you consider the fact that it's also the possible matchup against Chicago Bears. So the thing is the only question mark to have is just how more involved is a Davis is going to be. He hasn't played an offensive snap so far this season. So that definitely bodes well for railing out. And the fact that Allen has been splitting time with a stud like Breeze Hall, again, under a new offensive coaching staff is also positive for his outlook into that or excuse me in week four. So yeah, I think that if you picked him up this week, I think that he is a solid start. And I tell you, if coach speak would meant anything, I mean, we had the entire offseason in multiple years of Aaron Glenn telling us, you know, yeah, Braille and Allen, Braille and Allen. So now it is time for Braille and Allen to step up and put up Pat. How comfortable are you with Braille and Allen this week? Pretty comfortable. And I think Erickson hit it. The real question is the extent to which the Jets makes an Isaiah Davis. And we'd even heard some speculation over the summer that possibly Isaiah Davis could pass Braille and Allen on the depth chart to become the number two. There was talk from Aaron Glenn about how this might be a three headed backfield. But through three games, no offensive snaps or Isaiah Davis, just a special teamer. That's going to change this week. He's going to play some sort of role in support, but presumably Allen is going to be the lead guy. And it could be lead guy by a wide margin. So matchup looks pretty good. Bears haven't been quite the defensive pushover. People expected them to be the hell the Eagles to seven points on Monday night. But, you know, people here in Chicago are talking about them like they are the Mike Singletary Dan Hampton Bears of the mid 1980s. Not really. I mean, this is still not a good defense. There's ranked 28th in DVOA against the run that are giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs. This is a really nice match up for Braille and Allen. Hey, what's up? I'm Tony Gonzalez. We get real about marriage, parenthood, sex, divorce, and all the nitty gritty stuff we all think about. But just don't say out loud. I hate that job. You're probably just going to meet some rich guy and he's going to whisk you away and I'll never see you again. Oh, this is awesome. Would you say a deal is actor? D? I don't even know. There's this thing is D. No, no, no. I mean, like, I didn't even get on the scene list. Like, I'm not even average. I'm not even passing. I'm failing. Listen to No Safe Words with October and Tony Gonzalez, part of Michael Tour podcast network. Available on the iHeart Radio app. There are thousands of podcasts that can tell you how to better yourself. Get worse with Kyle Pru is not one of those podcasts. So if you're interested in getting thinner, going to therapy, starting peptide, setting boundaries, taking supplements, making your better, getting closer, then I would humbly recommend other podcasts. But if you're interested in blackmail, love, bombing, cloning yourself, or getting revenge, then we've got a little something, something for a dastardly individual like you. Take a listen to some of the incredible advice we've given so far. Take a back injury, get the spray tan, up your alcohol consumption. Only women should be allowed to have guns. Kill them. Kill them. Kill them with a gun. Listen, it's already over. I'm all about lying if it's something that really happened. The next time a bear is running at you, you just calmly stop what you're doing. You look the bear in the eye, and you say this isn't you. Do not preserve relationships. You don't need them. You only need one thing, and that's the get worse podcast. Listen to get worse with Kyle Pru on the IHR radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A decade ago, the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil. So, we met with a lot of larger farmers, went from Bahia to Tokyo teens to Montagro so. He brought a team of executives. They were going to help the country get in on a gold rush. Carbon and esterivatives are going to be really the next great commodity that the globe's going to trade. But back home in Iowa, trouble was brewing. If you live in Iowa, your land, your water, and your voice could all be at risk thanks to a man named Bruce Rastetter. Now people are questioning if his climate solutions have anything to do with climate at all. On this season of drilled, carbon cowboys, the story of how the ethanol kingpin of Iowa became the king of corn in Brazil and what it tells us about the limits of technology and markets to solve the climate crisis. Listen on the IHR radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's jump back to RB17 and ECR and talk about Aaron Jones. There's a little separation between you two in rankings fits. You're a little more in this week on Aaron Jones, our former packer there at RB14 and then Ericsson, you've got him in RB18. It's interesting because it's this is yet again is someone who has a massive workload. We did get the addition of a new running back, but probably not someone that is going to make a big impact. So this is Aaron Jones backfield for the time being. And so we're getting hefty volume and hefty usage fits what is making you lean a little bit more into and Aaron Jones this week. Yeah, and I can't wait to hear why Ericsson hates him because I actually moved Aaron Jones up to RB13 this morning. There we go. I'm not too worried about the arrival of former J. Hawk, Devon Neal because in the two games that Jordan Mason has missed while on IR with a fractured thumb, Aaron Jones has averaged 20 carries, 81 and a half rushing yards, didn't have a catch in the first two of those games, but last week against the box five catches for 34 yards, that was encouraging. I don't know if Jones can continue to survive this kind of workload in his 30s. He's been an obvious pain a couple of times, but he's played about 80% of the offensive snaps each of the last two weeks and just getting this huge share of the rushing load. I guess what I like here most era is that the Vikings are 11 and a half point home favorites against the lowly dolphins. Miami is giving up a league high 30.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. They've given up seven TDs to running backs in three games, including four TD catches. It's just such a good setup for Jones. I mean, maybe he gets a well-deserved rest late in the game if the Vikings are up big, but if the Vikings are big, you would imagine that Aaron Jones probably would have shared in these spoils of the big lead. Yeah. I think that makes complete sense. If we get into the scenario where there is a blowout, we see the other backs, they're finally forced to put them on the field to actually have carries and not just alleviate and give a little bit of rest there because Aaron Jones has been playing 80% or more of snaps, and you mentioned the increase in check downs, you know, perhaps the transition to Kyler Murray. Perhaps Kyler Murray is a benefit for Aaron Jones. The check downs there makes sense for him in what we have typically seen from him. So yeah, I can get on board with moving him up in this great match up. Now, Erickson, you got to talk to us. You're not believing in Aaron Jones. I get it. The hefty workload. He is aged and he was coming off a season last year where efficiency and every single metric was down, down, down. Yeah. I think that fits hit on this, too, where how long can he survive with this type of workload? So that is something that I am trying to keep in the back of my mind because entering last week, we didn't even know if Aaron Jones was going to be 100% to play because he suffered a knee injury in his first game with a massive workload. But then comes back, has another massive workload and then we see the uptick in the receiving usage, which was non-existent in Carson Wentz last start against the Chicago Bears. So I have nothing to push back against that. I think that it is very possible that you do see his overall touches and snaps reduce just because they don't want to necessarily destroy Aaron Jones and what he has left for the offense for the rest of the season. But if that's the case, then I'm definitely going to be too low on Aaron Jones, specifically in this match up where he could definitely make his bacon, make his hay with just touchdowns because that's what the dolphins have really given up because of their defense just being bad overall. I will point out that they're giving up the same yards per carry as a Houston Texans defense, which we all view as a really tough match up for opposing running backs. So they are specifically so much worse through the air than against the ground game. And I think Kevin O'Connell is going to know that because they're 32nd and past EPA, 11th and Rush EPA allowed this season. So they're top 12 defense in terms of stopping actual running attempts because teams look at big dude, Rossi Rice had so much separation last week. There was nobody around like guys are just running absolutely wild against his Miami Dolphins secondary. And I think if I'm Kevin O'Connell, how do you build the confidence of Kyle and Murray? It's like, dude, just let this guy have a really productive game against a terrible secondary. And this way you don't need to overload Aaron Jones because we can just beat him with Kyle his arm. We don't even need Justin Jefferson, potentially, to just beat this Miami Dolphins defense specifically in the secondary. So again, this is not painting a picture of Aaron Jones, the terrible start this week. I'm just looking at it from a different angle in terms of how do the Minnesota Vikings attack the specific defense. Maybe it doesn't come in the form of a massive Aaron Jones game. Again, St. Mark's parquet allowed his Houston Texans. Jacob R. Rodriguez, dude, dude, the stud, man, that linebacker, dude, he is so fond to watch. And he's like, I mean, the Miami Dolphins again, Chris Bell, Jacob Rodriguez, they got a couple of steals in this draft. So future outlook for that. I'm not obviously this year, not great, but 2027 beyond optimistic for Alfred Brown and all their dolphins fans out there. Third highest stuff right in the NFL, dolphins defense, third lowest rushing arts allowed before contact in the NFL. So that's my only pushback with Aaron Jones still a very strong RB two star in my opinion, but I'm not sure I'm going to get there with RB one unless he does score multiple touchdown. I mean, he's breaking out the Simbrero, then excellent argument, though, bringing out the rushing defense of stats there because it's easy to look at Miami and think layup, but there are parts that they are certainly better at and weaker against. You mentioned the Rashee rise separation when they're when he's separating that as an indication of just how bad the secondary might be. Let's go to another running back that you guys are on opposite ends, but I'm ready to hear the argument on this one because it's a Murray in Hampton as I was doing my rankings and I was just moving him back, back, back. I was wondering like just how far is too far where's the over reaction line from us because it has been destitute for the chargers and get in scary in terms of snap count usage for a Murray in Hampton. So we do have to react, but just how much and looking at ECR, the vast majority of us are reacting. He is RB 23. Eric, then you're reacting a little bit more. I like being a little bit more proactive on this. You've got him in RB 26, fit you're just right above ECR at RB 23. So, you know, Eric's in talk to us about the concerns about a Murray in Hampton. This might be the worst matchup that Omar in Hampton could draw in week four, among all starting running backs. If he is even viewed as a starting running back anymore on his team, the coaching staff and the chargers has talked a lot about changing things up because it's been so bad through the first three weeks of the season. And I think we saw a little bit of that in week three when we saw the most of Keaton Mitchell that we've seen all season. And when you look at the Seattle Seahawks defense, they lead the league this year with a 30 percent rushing success rate allowed, which is the best mark in the season since 2017, including the playoffs. No running back is hit 60 rushing yards or scored a rushing touchdown against Seattle in their last eight games. If Omar in Hampton does not score touchdown, he's going to be a bust in your lineup because the guy has zero pass game usage whatsoever. And that is one of the only ways you can actually attack the Seahawks defense is the running backs in the passing game. Like Ingold, the full back for the chargers has more targets than Omar in Hampton does this season. It is so glaring how they're not using Hampton at all as a pass catcher when he was used heavily in that fashion at the college level. And last year as a rookie, like he was top 10 in terms of receptions and targets per game among running backs, which is why we were excited about Omar in Hampton in this Michael Daniel offense that always feature running backs in the past game, but that has not been the case nearly whatsoever. So he's getting carries got double digit carries, I think all three games 15 cares 56 yards last week. But again, one target, one catch, season low snap share at 42%. He is my opinion is like a desperation flex play. And you're just hoping that he scores a touchdown. But based on what Seattle's defense has done, especially I cannot imagine being the offense as to face Seattle after they just lost to the Washington commanders like on the road dude. This is a terrible terrible spot for Hampton and honestly, like I'm an RV 26. So he's out time I top 24 when people ask me like, Armand Hampton or X player, it's got to probably be X player like he's a desperation flex for me. Yeah, it's tough to make the argument unless we see a miraculous and dramatic turn around for this offense because you can't argue, you can make the argument with the inner yarn Jones. Okay. That's great. We've got a great matchup. We've got volume, but you just can't make any of those arguments. Unfortunately for a Marine Hampton fits. You're just one ahead of ECR, but obviously we've just moved him further back to talk to us about a Marine Hampton. I guess your hope is that he has 50 carries and is currently tied for 11th and rushing attempts and has scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks, but like Erickson said, it probably has touchdown or bossed just the usage or non usage in the passing game has been so disappointing. Like what two carries and three targets so far and this is a guy who had 32 catches in only nine games as a rookie and he was a good pass catcher at the University of North Carolina. It's just it's disappointing that Hampton has been so one dimensional thus far because when Mike McDaniel was in Miami, he really unleashed Devon H and as a pass catching weapon. Certainly Hampton is not the same type of running back. It doesn't have the sort of speed that H and brings to the table, but and like you would think he would have some utility as a pass catcher and that would give him multiple outs and fantasy so far. He's just a one trick pony. I would maybe be less concerned if it was just Keaton Mitchell and we've got this two way split, but it feels like because they're struggling offensively, they're trying to throw anything at the wall and seeing if it's going to stick the fact that we had come on invite out by life. No insult to him, but we thought of that more is the okay, that's the direct handcuff. He's the one that'll come in and be the more of the continuation of the bruising and short yardage and early down and we'll have Keaton Mitchell doing the change of pace work still, but the fact that they were working in commande vitile on third downs as well is just very peculiar in terms of we can't 100% predict where they are trying to go because it feels like they're trying to do anything to figure out just how can we make this work. But he is still in that somewhat startable range or in the flex territory. We're going to move on to the sketchier territory of RB 25 through 36, the scary zone. Starting that off, we have Jacori Croskey-Marit and a somewhat friendly matchup against an Indian apolis defense that has been struggling. We're expecting points in this match up back and forth, Marcus Berriota, holding things down, getting the big win against Seattle. Then we've got Ramanjari Stevenson and the dreadful split followed up by Travion Henderson back to back at 26 and 27 at Buffalo. Then we've got Tony Pollard, J.K. Dobbins at San Francisco, Jadarian Price, RJ Harvey, Kyle Manungai. You start to get into this range of the one, two punch, the two guys, so we got Kyle Manungai at 32, then Blake Korum, Woody Marks, Oligorda and Creepin in here and Alvin Camera, of course. You guys already know who we're going to talk about. Spoiler alert, Oligorda will be in here, but before we get to that, let's start off a little bit higher in this range and we're going to touch on the dreaded New England backfield with Travion Henderson, who I thought we were turning a corner. We got the Ramanjari Stevenson fumble. We saw Travion Henderson break off the big run and I thought, "Here we go, we can trust it." I felt positive, heading into week three and low and behold, we just got more of the continuation of everything. He is sitting at RB27 Fitch, you're on par with ECR at RB27 in Ericsson. We got him a little bit lower at RB31 Fitch, talk to us about Travion Henderson. We will get a million start set questions involving Patriot running backs this week and people will say, "Should I start Travion Henderson or Ramanjari Stevenson?" What can we do but throw up our hands in the air because we don't know how the splits going to work out? Henderson played 60% of the Patriot's offensive snaps against the Steelers in week two, quite possibly because Ramanjari Stevenson lost a fumble on New England's first drive. Henderson played quite a bit after that. In week three, Henderson played 36.5% of the offensive snaps against the Jaguars. It was more of a Ramanjari Stevenson day. The bill is not really a problematic matchup. You can run on the bills as has been the case for the last couple of years, but with Ramanjari Stevenson around it, it's just a matter of whether you get a big player to from Travion Henderson. You're probably going to be happy with the result and if he doesn't pop a long one, you probably will not be. Yeah. Erickson, how about you? You're a little bit further back here because it's so risky what you're actually going to get out of this Patriot's backfield. Henderson feels like a player that you kind of have to just start every single week because if you're trying to pinpoint, "Oh, he's going to have a big game this week or rip off a big play this week and then not do it the next week." You're just going to be pulling your hair out trying to figure out you've got to take a lump in a similar like Jameson Williams type of fashion where this guy's Boomer bust. We don't know the usage, which is why I have him ranked a little bit lower just because I'm just a little bit less optimistic about the Patriot's offense. Just going on the road here against Buffalo. But if you're trying to spin the optimistic side for Henderson, well, what if Ramanjari does fumble again? Then sick. Like Henderson is locked and loaded like ready to go. And the Patriots need a spark, man, like offensively. And Henderson is that guy. So eight carries for 23 yards last week. He did have one target in the passing game for six yards, no touchdowns. But you know that he can score from anywhere on the field. And if the Patriots need to get Jack May, some solid completions, maybe you just involve more of your running backs in the passing game. So I'm talking about Henderson right now, being the lowest on him, first ECR and fits. But I'm almost talking myself into, just got to plug your nose, just put them in your flex spot. I mean, him versus Mary and Hampton, like who actually, like what's more like he is like scoring touchdowns this week or Henderson ripping off a big play because the Patriots are down by 21 points and have to throw throw throw and Henderson's out there. So that's kind of how I'm looking at Henderson. It's a boomer bus play. He didn't basically do anything in the second half of that Patriots game. All of his touches essentially were in the first half. So even though he was out snapped, a lot of that had to do with Stevenson in pass protection in the second half of the game. And it is worth noting the last time he faced the Buffalo Bills monster game for Trayman Henderson. I don't remember exactly if Stevenson played in that game or not, but still there's a proof of concept from this offensive staff, although it is a different defense for the Buffalo Bills under Jim Leonard versus Sean McDermott. They have it on film like when we fed Henderson against the Bill's defense, good things happened. So maybe that is a lean of, okay, how do we get a spark going here? So man, I don't like this guy's that I'm convincing myself that Henderson might be like a decent flex but I just like fingers crossed and he rips off a big one. - All right, well, convince me 'cause I have a dynasty team that starts three running backs which is disgusting, right? And I have to make the choice between Travion Henderson and Dodari and Price. And I currently have Travion Henderson in there. And I think I'm sticking with it on the same concept that you were talking about of like, hey, which one of these guys could pop off and have a boom game and maybe there's a Ramanjari Stevens in Fumble and I'm in bliss. Should I stick with Travion Henderson? - Yeah, I think I would do Travion Henderson than then Jadarian Price who, I mean, the guy's fumbling every what, every 60 pages. Or something like, pretty, pretty lit. I think Ramanjari's fumble rate is bad. But Jadarian Price is like, hold my beer dude. Like, I'm gonna put the ball in the ground even more often. And to another point, too, just as I'm thinking about this, right, we couldn't be so confident last week in Jeremiah Love because of the splits up to that point. - Yep. - And then what happened? They just decided, hey, you know, we're just gonna use more Love More this week and then he had a monster performance and he was a ceiling play. And I was kicking myself because someone was asking me a question about which of these has the highest ceiling between flex players. And he listed off a bunch of players. Love was one of the options that I was considering. But ultimately, I went away from it because I was like, well, he's still like in a committee without a year. So I didn't think he had the highest ceiling but what if Henderson does get the work this week? Okay, you could see where he does have a path to absolutely smashing. So man, I gotta move him up. I don't know. This is bad. - Yeah, there we go. (laughing) We're making changes and rinking life. Perfect. Maybe there'll be some changes on this one because you guys are very far apart on this. And this is a player that I think is oddly enough for as strange as it is. I mean, it's the Denver team, right? And they are polarizing when it comes to rankings because of the factor of who is going to do what on a weekly basis. So of course, we are talking about JK Dobbins. You know, what type of upside does he really have? So at ECR, he has ranked RB 19, Ericsson. You were on the positive end at RB 25 fits. You were on the skeptical side at RB 32 fits. Talk us out of JK Dobbins. Do we mistake that we don't want to make? - Yeah, I mean, normally the case with JK Dobbins is good one healthy. He's healthy, has not been good so far. 3.5 yards per carry, has 121 rushing yards and minus 22.6 rushing yards over expected. Dobbins played four fewer snaps than RJ Harvey last week and Tyler Badez in the mix too. And as usual, Dobbins has been a complete zero on the passing game, had his first reception of the season last week and went for four yards. - Yeah, there's not a ton of upside there in terms of you're just looking and hoping, can we get the touchdown and thus far, unfortunately, we're not getting the touchdowns. Maybe a slightly, you know, typically a difficult matchup against San Francisco, but, you know, they're dealing with the injuries. So maybe there's some leeway there. Ericsson, why are you a little bit higher on Dobbins than this week? - Four downer's defensive line is buns. It's been completely decimated by injuries and it was, played a big part. I think in why we saw this Jeremiah love explosion against San Francisco for eight downers because they just don't have any more bodies left on their defensive line. Like they've put so many guys on injured reserve. Like couldn't even put Nick Bosa on injured reserve because they'd have enough space to put another player. So still, they still have Fred Warner though so like you can only like downgrade their run defense so much because Fred Warner is such, I mean, he's arguably the best linebacker in all the football. So I don't think the 49ers are ever viewed as a, oh, this is like a smash spot for a imposing running back. And yeah, Dobbins has nothing good. If you look at his rushing success rate, he is third worst among qualified rushers. Really bad at the red zone too. He has five goal line carries in the last two weeks, but zero touchdowns. I guess I'm just betting a little bit on some touchdown regression happening where he does actually finding the end zone because that's ultimately what you need to get out of JK Dobbins. So as we talked about Henderson as a boomer bus type of pick, Dobbins also feels pretty boomer bus with not as much excitement about his potential ceiling because he hasn't good as a rusher. He doesn't get involved in the passing game. And if the Broncos fall behind, I think that's probably the biggest concern here against a really high powered 49ers death star offense where you know, Dobbins is totally neutralized from the game script at that point 'cause he doesn't catch any passes. So still 17 carries last four or nine yards. That's why Fringe or B2 play. He's really in a tier where I start to feel uncomfortable with some of these running backs, but just betting on, okay, I think maybe you can find the end zone this week. - Yeah, at least volume and you mentioned it, the injuries that they're dealing with. Unfortunately, the substation remains undefeated. So hopefully we do not get any more 49ers injuries this week, cross our fingers on that one. We do not need it, people. All right, we will give one more running back in this range. Now we talked about Braille and Alan earlier. So we're doing Ollie Gordon because obviously, the people want to know they added these guys on waiver wires. This blown a little bit more fath than they wanted to, but they got it. So what are we actually doing here with Ollie Gordon? ECR RB35 fits here. A little higher at RB29 and then Ericsson. RB33 fits. What is making you feel a little bit more positive about Ollie Gordon this week? - The prospect of volume. - Yeah. - Alien, yeah. - We don't know if Jalen Wright's gonna play this week. He missed week two with a stinger and a foot injury. And if Wright doesn't play, Gordon could get a lot of work this week. All be it against a tough Minnesota run date that's a lot of the sixth-fewest rushing yards to running backs has not given up a touchdown to a running back this season. And the dolphins are 11 1/2 point underdogs in a road game. So it's a tough spot for Gordon, but if he is getting a huge snap share, huge carry share, maybe that is enough to move him into viable flex territory for you this week. - Yeah, I think that's what it is with me as well. I'm a little bit higher than consensus for the exact same reasons. If we get Jalen Wright, I'll probably will move him back, but for right now, we're talking a pure volume perspective. That's the direction that I'm heading towards. A little bit more trust, especially because like, same with Braylon Allen, I think sometimes we underestimate how much of these bigger guys can actually be somewhat productive in the past game as well. Ollie Gordon, yeah, we think of him as, hey, he's the bigger guy, he's the bruiser, he catches, passes, is he going to do what Devon H and does with him? Absolutely not, but he can do a little bit of something and handle check downs. So there is just a smidgen of hope, just a smidgen of hope. There are Eric's and a little less hopeful, but you are still above ECR on this one. - Yeah, same as Fitz when it comes to volume, right? That's how you find ceiling when it comes to Randy surrounding backs. If he's gonna see 25 or potentially even 30 touches, like you got to find a way to kind of get him into your lineup regardless of how bad the matchup is against the Minnesota Vikings. Vikings, fourth, Fuehish Rushing Arts per game, lowest EPA allowed per rush. I mean, the fact that Brian Flores is going up against the Miami Dolphins at all, is just one of these things where, dude, he's gonna load everything that he has in his back pocket for defensive schemes against. I feel bad for Blake Lewis. I feel like this guy has no more servers to throw to. Just lost the best offensive player on his team and has to face the brute of just Brian Flores defense that just throws everything and more at an opposing quarterback. So Ollie Gordon saddle up. I mean, this could be one of these games where we look back and be like, dude, Ollie Gordon had 25 carries for 25 yards. Like, just like something like, absolutely ridiculous. And when you look back on that, you might think man, I was so dumb, but it's like, if he's gonna get 25 carries, like you got to play that guy. Like regardless of whoever they could be played at 85 Bears defense, like it doesn't matter. Like the volume always trumps volume his king and fantasy football, especially at running back. So I think too, like that's how you have to evaluate him. Like there's a floor with him that you may not get with a lot of other receivers or other running backs because you're not really sure, right? It's like, Ollie Gordon versus like the Patriots running backs, right? It's like, you have no idea where the touches will be distributed. Maybe one of the patch running backs has a higher ceiling, but Gordon, he's gonna have a lot more to floor. And I was encouraged at least last week that he did get involved in the passing game a little bit too. So I actually had one nice catch. I thought was pretty impressive. So three down skill set. They've talked about him having a three down skill set in the off season. Any obviously there's proof of concept. So I think the Jalen right thing will probably be the only reason I don't have him as high as fits right now. But if we get Jalen right, like limited throughout the week, he's coming up foot and sting your injury. If he's not ready to go, then I just think they're gonna roll with all the Gordon and Jarkas Hunter probably as the number two running back. - Yeah, that's a good summary. We love the volume that he can be getting there. We hate the matchup, Brian Flores, Revenge game. He's probably gonna take the Remember the Titans approach if we blitz all night. Good Lord. It could get nasty. Let's talk some deeper plays though. When Aaron drew, we kind of already touched on this one a little bit there. But let's talk about the positive aspect of it out of that Chargers backfield. Erickson talked to us about Keaton Mitchell. RB 34 in ECR and you have him at RB 36. - You've attacked this Seattle CX defense through running backs in the passing game. Keaton Mitchell outscored Omaren Hampton last week despite less touches and less snaps. It might be two weeks in a row that we see Keaton Mitchell outproduce Omaren Hampton even on fewer volume. Eight carries last week for 52 yards, caught all three of his targets for an underwhelming negative five yards. But did catch a receiving touchdown, season high in snaps at 38%. The target volume for Keaton Mitchell is rising week over week, one in week two, three this past week. So, I think that when you look at how you attack the CFS defense, I think it's screening more as hey, we need to feature Mitchell. Mitchell was really one of the bright spots at that Chargers offense last week against the Buffalo Bills. He forced eight missed tackles on his 11 touches. So we'd heard the rumors. I keep Mitchell was going to have a certain role in packages throughout the off season that did not come to fruition to the first two weeks of the season. But in week three, he had a legitimate role in this offense. And I think that continues based on how he performed played 40% of the third downstaffs alongside Kamani Vadael. And just really bring up the point like, this is how you tack Seattle is running backs in the passing game. So I honestly would not surprise me. Mitchell outscores hand them again. Yeah, I love the inclusion of this one. Everyone's struggling there at running back. So Keaton Mitchell is a great one that you could potentially turn to for some pop and usage. Get another one from you Pat. This one is interesting because you know, as people were, you know, turn to their nose up and say, why would you want to add Ollie Gordon or Jalen Wright for the Miami dolphins? You know, it's a bad team. And I've reminded everyone like, Hey, there are people out there that are having to start back up running backs, asking like, Hey, is it okay to start Emmett Johnson? So you tell the people. He said, ECR RB 39. You've got him an ECR 37. Is it okay to start Emmett Johnson? Yeah, maybe he might be the anti Ollie Gordon. You're not guaranteed any more than about four or five touches, but you're getting them in a fantastic offense in a what should be a pretty positive matchup against the the Raiders with the chief solid road favorites. It's just one of those things where you're probably hoping for a lopsided chief's victory. Um, but like Emmett Johnson has given us two way value as a runner and as a pass catcher. He's looked really good. Um, and the chiefs are maybe incentivized to spare Kenneth Walker who has been so dominant that you do not want him to run out of gas before we hit the midpoint of the season. So, um, maybe that means 10 touches this week for Emmett Johnson. If he gives you 10 touches, he's probably going to give you flex value. Completely agree on that one. But that wraps things up for this show before we head out. Make sure that you like the video. If you're watching on YouTube and make sure that you're also subscribed to the fantasy pros YouTube channel and the podcast as well. So that you do not miss out on any of the fantasy football content or tools that we've got as well. We appreciate you joining in for Pat Fitzmorris and Andrew Erickson. I'm Tara Roberts. Thanks for tuning in and we will see you next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasy pros.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok @fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/fantasypros. And I'm October Gonzales, but you can call me Toby. We get real about marriage, parenthood, sex, divorce and all the nitty gritty stuff we all think about but just don't say out loud. Guaranteed Human.