Fantasy Football Week 1: Key Questions for Every Matchup | Rankings, Breakouts & Concerns (Ep. 2187)

This is an I Heart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. - Hey, I'm Mike Am. - And I'm Trevor Sikima. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. - Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? - Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. - Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, would you be the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count? - Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. - Hello, everybody. Welcome into the fantasy-prose football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley-Joyne, as I will be every Friday morning. I am so excited we are here in season. My path fits Morris and Derek Brown. You guys, we did sort of our season long key questions episodes. You get us ready to go for this episode. We're gonna do every weekend season. But this is really the fun stuff I love talking through all the games with you guys every single week. We have two fewer games, so I guess one fewer games than usual, 'cause we usually do have a Thursday game, because we have gotten a couple of games already this week, a Wednesday and a Thursday game to kick things off. Fits, we're gonna dive right in just 'cause we have a lot of games to get to and not that much time to get through them. But for those games we have seen, do you have any sort of early takeaways? It can be from the injury riddled game one. I guess it was injuries in game two, but really only one team has shown up for fantasy managers so far. How are you feeling after those first two games? - Yeah, I guess not totally shocked, the defenses are ahead of the offenses at this early stage in week ones, with a three week preseason, while at least defenses ahead of the offenses, in three out of four cases, the 49ers look pretty sharp for the most part. Yeah, and just usage was a little wonky in week one, in some cases, especially in the Australia game. I don't think people CMC investors should be panicking that Kaelin Black had more carries than Christian McCaffrey. Like Christian McCaffrey was dealing with some lower body tightness in the preseason. And I just don't think even though Kyle Shanahan is usually happy to give CMC 25 touches, I don't think he wanted to do that in Australia with the unusual circumstances of that game. - Yeah, D-Bro, can you really take anything away from this game? I mean, even negative or positive. To me, it feels like it's just we're going to look back on this regardless of what happens the rest of the season and say, hey, just chalk it up to like travel, weirdness. But having said that, I do think there is a chance that the Niners are just like the team that hey, we were all over looking this summer because everybody likes Seattle and Los Angeles so much. And they actually are. This was an announcement that they are really good. What do you think is more likely that we're taking nothing away from this game or that the Niners are actually going to be pretty good aren't good this season? - I think the biggest takeaway that we had all off season is still the biggest takeaway for the 49ers. Their health is going to determine their season. Can they stay healthy? If they could stay healthy, there's still one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. And for everybody's off season shade, boys, Mike Evans doesn't look washed at all. And now he's with it off it's a play collar that's going to move him around the frickin' formation and not asking to just win versus on the perimeter. That was fantastic to see, but to Fitsy's point also about Christian McCaffrey, I mean, guys like, yeah, like he didn't play to the 90% plus snaps. Dude, still got freaking eight targets. 15 opportunities. And unless people were watching a different game than I was watching, he looked really explosive in that game. So a lot of really good takeaways for Christian McCaffrey and I'll also give a shout out to Devo Samuel, looking slim, trim and explosive back with the 49ers jersey on his back, man. Looking good. - I was going to say he had almost an identical stat line to Mike Evans, Evan's six for 49 and a touchdown. Devo, six for 48 and a touchdown. So a couple of L.D.- - And a 12-year carry. - Yes, and the carry as well. Just very quickly, like 20 seconds on Drake May, what is your guys' concern level from that game? Just for fantasy purposes, I'm not saying he's like a bad quarterback or whatever, but if AJ Brown missing at least a month, him throwing three interceptions, it was against a really, really good defense, Debro at any concern level, what's all? - No, I'm not concerned. It felt like very much where most of the game he was taken with the defense, was giving him, he went yolo mode at the very end of it, felt like he had to try to win it by himself. Same thing he was doing in the Super Bowl. If they put Romeo dobs into the Stefan Diggs light role, I think the Patriots can keep this ship afloat until AJ Brown is back. - Fits any just quick reaction to Drake May's down game. - Seattle's got a great defense and a great defensive mastermind in Mike McDonald's. And Drake May didn't play well, but he will have better games. - Yep. - All right, let's dive into the rest of our Friday show. We're gonna go through game by game here, sort of in schedule order. And we're gonna talk about one key question from every matchup. So we won't hit every single team, but it will hit every single matchup. And a lot of the questions will hit both teams. We'll get through as much as we can here on the show every week, reminder for everybody, all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers throughout every week in terms of your start. And since it's decisions can be found at fantasyproze.com/rankings. Game number one, guys, bears at Panthers. Key question here. I know we have question marks about the Carolina offense, but is Teteromic Millen a bit under ranked by week one consensus at Y-D receiver 17 when he has a matchup against what we expect to be one of the worst defenses in football fits. You have talked a lot about this bear's defense on shows this summer. So I'll start with you. Is Teteromic Millen a little bit under ranked at Y-D receiver 17 by consensus? Yeah, the bear's defense is going to be really bad. And I think even bears fans here in Chicago, I'm of course not among them, I'm a Packers fans, but bears bears fans have no illusions about their defense. Like it's going to be open season on the Chicago bears. They're going to play in a ton of shootouts because their offense is really good. Their defense is really bad. And one of their bright spots on defense is Jalen Johnson, really good cornerback. Hello, you know, he hasn't been fully healthy recently when he's been less than healthy. He hasn't always been a tip top cornerback. But I think he's going to get some FaceTime with Teteromic Millen in this game, but still it's really hard for any cornerback to hold up in coverage and for zone coverages to keep their shape when the pass rush can't get home. And lack of pass rush is just this glaring problem for the bears. So I think this is a really favorable matchup for McMillan who I think has a chance to like ascend into the, you know, if not the top tier with the Jamar Chase Pukin Akua category, at least like the CD-Lam George Pickens category of wide receivers. I mean, the guy had 1,000 yards as a rookie catching passes from a below average quarterback. And he did it as an early declare rookie. So yeah, I'm, I'm protet and I've got him, I think cubic or wide receiver 12 this week. - I was going to say that the consensus has updated since I put together the sheet. He has moved up only by one spot. So he's no longer wide receiver 17. He's wide receiver 16. Still feels a little low, especially compared to Fizz's ranking, but I wanted to mention for transparency there that he is, he has moved up a little bit already just earlier this week. Debrot, where are you at on Teteromic Mill? And again, really good player, questionable environment, but a great matchup to have going up against his defense. So with all those factors combined, where is he ranked for you? - I think he's a fantastic player. My problem with Ted has not been a Ted problem. It's been the question of a quarterback play. Is the matchup fantastic? Yes, the problem is I still have questions about what is the passing volume going to be. Now, now maybe the Chicago Bears force the Carolina Panthers and they get out to an early lead to force Bryce Jung to chuck it. It's a fantastic matchup, as we've all kind of alluded to here for Teteromic Millen. Also on a coverage perspective because, but week 17 on Chicago leaned in the single high 58% of their snaps on the defensive side. Ted versus single high, 26 target per run rate, 2.06 yards per run last year against single high. So that's awesome. I just don't know what the target ceiling looks like for Ted and week one. So if the game script goes favorable for Carolina to throw the ball more than maybe I'm expecting, can he be a wide receiver one this week? Yeah, it's definitely possible. I do have Ted right now, I'm with consensus. I've got him at wide receiver 17. So I think the rankings appropriate based off the target volume, I'm expecting but can he outplay it? Absolutely, but I also to the positive Ted side, this is also a fantastic matchup for Jalen Coker. I don't want that to get lost either because Kyla Gordon's not playing in this game. He's facing the same garbage, secondary and week one. And if you look at when both these guys were healthy and weeks 13 through 19, including the playoffs, target shares weren't that different boys. So I think that both these guys can eat. Where's Coker ranked for you, Deepa? Oh, Coker, Coker, Coker, where are you at? I will have him comfortably probably inside my top like 40 wide receivers. I'm still looking for him in my ranks right now. I've got my wide receiver 42, but honestly, I've still got to go through ranks and stuff like that. He's going to be like a back in low in wide receiver three, high in four for me, probably wide receiver, high third, like low 30s. It fits wide receiver 45 for Coker and consensus to high two low, just right? I've got 49. No major, she's with that ranking, I'm kind of in line. I just, I don't think we're going to see anything like Teteroma, McMillan and Jalen Coker are not going to have anything close to the same target volume this year though. That I would push back on that in a big way. Last year. No, they did late last year, but like that's not, that's a small sample size. We are not going to see that over the long haul. But they're just not in the same class of player, D-Brow. Okay, all right. We'll see how it works out Fancy by the way 10 Roman millen plus 1100 plus 1200 Depending when you look for a first touchdown score if you like him to have a big game And if I kind of think Carolina might come out and say like hey, he didn't get enough touchdowns last year Let's really prioritize this early this year. I think it might be worth a sprinkle Let's go to the next game here Bucks at Bengals this game has the highest total on the week's slate the only game over 50 With high scoring expectations give me one player each that you are actually lower than consensus on We think this is going to be a high scoring game. Let's see who we're maybe fading a little bit in this one D. Bro I'll start with you If DJ Turner plays in this game. I am lower on a mecca Buka and right now It is up in the air if he plays or not. He popped up with a hamstring injury in the middle of the week Still managed a limited practice. We got to see what the practice reports look like for the rest of the week and what his game designation is But if DJ Turner is active in this game. I am extremely worried about a mecca Buka Because if you look at DJ Turner and he was one of the best shadow corners of the entire freaking NFL last year He's shadow DK Metcalf twice Justin Jefferson once Romeo Dobbs a Flowers twice Yeah, you could throw Gabe Davis in there He followed each one of those guys on 60% of their routes in those matchups only allowed one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson Sir past 70 receiving arts in his coverage Even if you zoom out from a hundred foot view This is not a good coverage match up for a mecca at Buka when he was at the height of his powers last year weeks one through five And this goes back to again single high coverage since and how to use this at 57% of the defensive snaps last year Weeks one through five and mecca Buka while he was crushing Opposing defenses versus single high in that stretch 1.36 yards per route run So if Turner is active since he rolls back the single high of last year I am very worried about a mecca Buka and I will be very consistent and being a tad below consensus walking into this game this week But if to the flip side of this if Turner is out I will be at least at consensus with that Buka despite the coverage matchup Okay, deep right. I just want to ask because we got a lot of questions on the live stream We did yesterday about Christian Watson and Parker Washington those three guys like Buka Washington and Watson are all within four spots of each other in consensus Do you like a Buka better than those guys are worse or is it just entirely dependent on DJ Turner? What Watson and Washington over them over a Buka even if Turner is out. Okay fits what is a player in this matchup that you are fading who is a guy that you're looking at that you maybe are a little lower than consensus on Chris Godwin. I'm two spots below ECR on him. I've got him at wide receiver 34. It's not so much about the matchup Because like DJ Turner does factor into this. I'm kind of propping up Godwin because I think if Turner plays That could funnel a few extra targets Godwin's way. I just worried Godwin isn't the same player he was before that grew some ankle injury midway through the 2024 season Um, last year they had to shut down Godwin early in the year because of lingering issues averaged a career low 7.1 yards per target last season But um, you know, it is a good scoring environment in this game with a the high Vegas total as you mentioned warm um and maybe if Turner isn't playing like I'm probably going to drop Godwin another spot or two just because that would kind of elevate Ebuca I feel the same way that deep wrote us about Turner. I mean he is one of the unheralded stars of the NFL. Yeah, he's gonna get paid So fits then are if you're lower on Godwin, are you higher on Ebuca then deep row is because the, you know, with the gun we think it's gonna be a high score game The passes are gonna have to go somewhere or wide receiver 22 Okay, so just one spot ahead of consensus. I think I'm out. I think I'm a little ahead of consensus on Jalen McMillan for whatever that's worth sure I don't think many people in week one with fully healthy starting lineups are starting Jalen McMillan, but you never know He's like a wide receiver five or something like that. He's about to see over 64 in consensus Debro are sort of this reverse question. Are you higher on Godwin since you're lower on Ebuca? I am higher on Godwin. I have my wide receiver 29 Uh, I think it's a good coverage matchup for him. I do share if it's his concerns about like What has he got left in the tank? I'm a little bit higher on him only because if you look at Just weeks 13 through 18 when he came back last year Uh, only a 16% target share, but he was producing 1.88 yards per wrap run 0.107 first downs per wrap run Those are really solid numbers. So I I we got to see it though. I have concerns about which version of Chris Godwin we see this year, but I do really like him Like I've already bet is over receiving artich market or excuse me as prop for a week one Um, and I will be above consensus on him because of Turner plays. I'm very worried about Ebuca Next game saints at lions. This game has the second highest total on the slate It's just under 50 at 49 and a half on betting pros consensus odds. That's betting pros calm Unlike the last question. Let's lean into the fun of the high number Give me a player ranked highly in this matchup who you expect to have an even better game than his high ranking would suggest Debro I'll start with you Chris Alave. I don't care that he's a top 10 wide receiver already like he could be a top three wide receiver this week Like for going against this secondary if Towershuck is is slinging the ball There's so many different paths for Chris Alave to crush. I mean if you look at last year weeks 12 through 18 Detroit lions give it the fourth most fantasy points per target perimeter wide receivers 10th most yards per target They were terrible against guarding against the deep ball give it the second most deep passing arts per game in that stretch as well They have both their starting safeties out. I'm not worried about any of their starting corners that they're going to run out there Tyrion Arnold's not on this roster anymore. We know that the total is high We know there's going to be points. We know Tyler Schuck is going to have to freaking throw the ball This is also more of a pass funnel than I don't think the saints are going to have a lot of success running the ball in this matchup against the the lion's defensive line so all Signs for this game point me back to Chris Alave The consensus odds six and a half receptions 76 and a half receiving yards. Those aren't small numbers But they feel really attainable in this matchup. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean he could go for a hundred and and like a hundred receiving yards and two touchdowns in this game He's about to see for seven and consensus You mentioned that you like you could see him being water see for three you can't really rank him that high Just given some of the names and obviously guys like Jayson and Puka have already played and we're ranked hot more highly So the ranking isn't going to reflect that but obviously just somebody that you are very very high on for this week Fits who stands out to you a player that's ranked highly that you are even higher on that consensus I'm thinking along the same lines deep row is like without Brian branch and Kirby Joseph those lion safeties Detroit is a past defense We're going to want to attack early in the year um because branch and Joseph are both like star caliber guys And when they played full seasons in 2023 We know that safeties are largely responsible for tight end coverage um They played full seasons in 2023 the lines a lot of the second few as fantasy points to tight ends And then last year branch missed five games Joseph missed 11 games and the lines were middle of the pack against tight ends 15th Fewest fantasy points allowed with both guys out. I mean, I think the tight ends are gonna hammer Detroit until those guys are back So I want to lean into that with juan johnson. I've got him tight and eight this this week Hi, this is Kylie breakman angel jaretana jermick olhane pasch McDonald and we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists on artists podcast The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft join us for a panel of wellness influencers What I try to do is Phone journal. I don't know if you guys are to phone journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading you so you're so We don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's peloton class? No, I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm I'm seeing A reading of Sadako in the thousand paper cranes by Auderman Donald at the Wonderland bookstore That's crazy. 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Then we go over to France. Li-un. Li-ga. Li-an. Li-ga. You know what's more, he's better than me. What do you think is harder? Scoring a penalty kick or scoring a field goal? He's an NFL and I'm like, just a big fat guy. I do it. That's crazy. Join us each week for a quick chat with your soccer-loving bros about the best sport in the world. Soccer. Just don't tell my coaches I said that. Listen to big kick energy on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Debra IS fits this already on the Thursday show. So I want to ask you, because I think a lot of us are really excited about Toronto Johnson this week. There was a very consensus top eight tight ends in draft season, one of those was Bowers. So set him aside for now that leaves a consensus top seven from draft season that are ranked as the top seven in consensus for week one. McBride, Loveland, Warren, Pitzle, Porto, Kraft, fan, and don't worry about the order of those of the seven. Do you think Joanne Johnson deserves to be ranked eighth right behind them, or even within that top seven ahead of those guys who were going well ahead in draft season given the matchup and the opportunity here? Or do you still have them outside of that range? Why does Kyle Pitz why should it be ranked above Joanne Johnson? I just I just realized I have Johnson ahead of Pitz. So he's actually tight on seven. Okay, I've got Johnson, I guess seven right ahead of Pitz. He blogs ahead of one of those guys. The Pitz is tied at four, by the way, in consensus. That's does everybody realize Cooper Rush could be starting that game. Right. I mean, just saying, well, I say I wouldn't a week ago. I was feeling pretty good that my two tight ends in the dynasty league that we're all in were Bowers and Pitz. And now I'm like, not so much. Why not? I was like, Debra, you were talking of Kate Otton on the stream yesterday. Should I start him over over Pitz and I mean, still the quarterback. I don't know that I can actually do that, but I don't know if I can actually do that. But I mean, dude, like, Kyle, whatever way, you know, we'll get to you know, we'll get to that. But yeah, I'm with you guys do have inside your top seven. Okay. So like very, very much a guy you're trying to look at, would you consider starting him in the flex? I mean, it's not really likely that you guys would need to this early in the season. Again, people are still pretty full rosters. But if you like the matchup that much, would either of you. I didn't bring you into that spot, tight and premium regular scoring and no, I mean, I just don't think there's enough injuries and there's not enough like by, there's no by weeks and stuff like that. So I don't think you have to go there. Okay. Yeah. All right. If you want to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams jersey, then this is your shot. All you have to do is subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any video. And that is it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So be sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. All right. Bills at Texans key question here across the last two seasons, two of Josh Allen's three lowest quarterback ratings in any individual games have come in his two matchups against the Texans defense. And he's finished as QB 22 and QB 19 in those two games now the Texans look better on defense than ever. What are your expectations for the bills offense in this one fits? Yeah. The challenge is not like the city of Houston, does he last year, 253 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions in a bills loss in 2024. Allen was nine of 30 for 131 yards in a road loss to the Texans. Much earlier in his career, rookie year through for 84 yards and no touchdowns. And one of his starts and then Josh Allen's first ever playoff game, a loss in overtime to Houston, 22 19 after he completed 52.2% of his throws and didn't have any touchdowns. I've got Alan rank QB five. This week, I can never completely fade a guy who runs the way he does and could give you two rushing touchdowns in any game. Even against what might be the toughest defense in the NFL. But man, it does kind of stink for the people who've spent an early round draft pick on Josh Allen to get this match up right out of the gate. Because one of those things where it's like, I can't in good conscious as somebody who does is professionally tell somebody to not start the consensus to be one. And I also don't like, I think typically fantasy managers overreact to tough matchups. This is to me as tough as a match up can get because again, I do think this is a defense that has already given him fits and B is going to be even better this season. I think this really will be like the 2000 Ravens, you know, O2 box 2013 Seattle, like I think this year's Texas team can be if they say healthy in that category, like they are that good. But like, if you draft a Josh Allen, who else did you draft that you're going to start instead? Right? Like that becomes where it starts really actionable for the rest of the offense, D bro. Like even if we say, okay, even if we don't like it, we're starting Josh Allen. Are you fading? DJ Moore? I mean, again, James Cook is another guy that you like pretty much have to be starting. Like, what are you doing with the rest of the guys in this offense? You're starting James Cook. You're not playing DJ Moore unless you have to, depending on your options. You're not playing, obviously, Khalil Shakir and deeper leagues. I do think that don't concave, depending on your tight end options, because Houston, yes, they added reblanca chip in the off season. But last year, weeks 12 through 18, this is mostly, I mean, pretty much the exact same freaking defense that rolling back. Donkey Kade is the X factor in this game, because during those weeks, 12 through 18 last year, Houston gave the seventh most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. 11th most fantasy points per opportunity. So can Kade is the only bills option outside of Josh Allen and James Cook? I'm probably willing to start in this game. The bills or the tax and defense is kind of a tight end funnel. Like, I don't know, I don't feel great about being funneled into reblanca chip and Jalen Petri and those guys, like really good personnel, man. If you guys had to pick, who do you think will be the better defense this year's Seattle or Houston? To me, those are like the two that are even ahead of the team like Denver, who I think is really good. Like those two, I think stand apart for me. Do you guys think, like do you have a sense of when you like better? That's really tough. But I think Houston is number one right now. I think if you've never seen number one three of them, like McDonald defense, so I'm like really curious what that's going to look like in Seattle, but man, Houston's good. I think if you look in there, they're just, they're very different defenses based off of like, because Seattle, you get all the coverage disguises, you get the safety rotations and stuff. Houston, they're just like straight up like that. They don't do a lot of the same kind of bells and whistles in McDonald. Like Domingo Ryan's like our dudes are better than your dudes trying to beat us. Good luck. It's a deal. Good luck for sure. But with Houston, it's got to feel like, you know, being chased by the zombies in 28 days later, who are just like fast and unrelenting. Yes. I have seen that movie, by the way, I knew you were going to ask Steve. All right. Let's go to a second question, actually, in this one, because I do think this is sort of the biggest game of the day. And I think it's worth looking at the other side of the ball in the matchup, too. If the bill's offense versus Texans defense is strengthened on strength, the other side of the ball is closer to weakness on weakness. So, you know, we'll see what this Houston offense looks like. And we'll see what the bills defense looks like under Jim Leonard, but it looks like more of the weakness on weakness here. So who wins the day between that new Buffalo defense under Jim Leonard versus CJ Stroud in his first game since his disastrous postseason performance fits. Well, being a fan of the University of Wisconsin football team, where Jim Leonard used to be the defensive coordinator, I know a little bit about him. He's a sharp cat. I'll say the bills hold the Texans under 20 points this way. Yeah. Debra, you feel the same? Yeah. I don't look at the bills defense as being weak. I do can definitely say that about the Houston offense. Like, I think it's going to be a lot of running the ball, a lot leaning on David Montgomery. I mean, bills because even like we could talk about, like, if they weren't like a top tier defense, they were really freaking good down the stretch last year. Like weeks 12 through 18, give the fewest charts per attempt. Six lowest pass rating. They're good against defending against the deep ball. Question Benford might shadow, Niko Collins, he did that a few times last year. So they take him away. What is Houston going to do? I, I think this is going to be a rock fight type of game. I don't really want to invest again, like going back to this. Like, I'm worried about Niko Collins in this matchup. CJ Stroud, no, thank you. Dalton Schultz versus a defense that's been elite versus tight ends over the last few years. Yeah. The only guy like I really want to start from the Houston offense is probably David Montgomery and that's about it. Benford's good, but you think he's taking Niko away, like under 50 yards. Benford is, is that dude? He's really freaking good, man. Fitz, do you like to under in this one, 44 and a half? I do. Yeah. I do too. All right. Next game Ravens at Colts. Let's look at the stars in this one with two guys ranked inside the top five at their respective positions who will have a higher positional finish in week one. Marjaxson in his first game with the new play collar or Jonathan Taylor against a defensive play collar who has historically been weaker against the run. Fitz, I'll start with you here. Well, I guess it's Lamar since I've earned QB one this week and it's not necessarily an easy matchup for him. The Colts have an excellent quarterback duo in Sawis Gardner and Shervarious Ward. Ward isn't always healthy, but he's healthy right now, but the Colts might not have much of a pass rush, which could be a problem. I know. Yeah. I just, I know the Baltimore run defense was shockingly soft last season. Worm as you remember, but things should be better with non-demeta week A back from his neck injury. Although it's not. totally clear whether he's going to play this week. Like he's been getting eliminated in practice. I think there were more circling week two, but we want to still not look out as sort of my interpretation. All right. Plus the, the cults running game fell off last season after Daniel. Jones got hurt. Jones is back, but I, I don't know if the cults running game immediately goes back to what it was before the injury when Jonathan Taylor was scoring touchdowns like Lenin and Tomlinson. I just, I don't know about that. I think Lamar is a slightly better bet to finish at the top of his position this week. For what it's worth, Jonathan Taylor in a matchup against Jesse Mentor's Chargers defense a year ago, 16 carries 94 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers scored 38 points in that game against him. It is definitely different, but I just wanted to throw it out because he has faced a Jesse Mentor defense relatively recently. Debra, where are you out on this one? Do you like Lamar better amongst QBs or Jonathan Taylor better amongst running backs? Lamar better. And it's not close to me. I think you're not giving your Ravens run defense enough credit. Worm, to be honest, man. Like return if Metabucay plays, then they get a bump there. But your Ravens were really freaking good against the run down the stretch last year. Like again, weeks 12 through 18, fourth lowest explosive run rate, ninth lowest rushing success rate, fourth highest stuff rate. I don't think you're giving Ravens enough credit. Here Worm. I'm actually kind of worried about Taylor in this game. Interesting. Well, do you guys have any concerns about Lamar? I know he's been really good in like first games with new play collars in the past. But this is like a brand new play collar who's never done it before. He's very young. Like to me, I'm not even saying that like I'm nervous about losing the game. I mean, of course it could happen. The Colts aren't terrible. But like it's more just like I wonder how Lamar will actually look and the offense in general will actually look in game one with a very detailed oriented Declan Doyle offense who like maybe it takes some time. You know, Lamar is a lot more established than Caleb Williams. But it did take a little bit last year for this offense to start clicking like under Ben Johnson and Declan Doyle. Now it's just Declan Doyle. It doesn't have Ben Johnson there to help. And you know, again, Lamar is more of a veteran there. But you know, the offensive line isn't perfect. Right. Big question marks at center. Pass catching group isn't perfect. There's question marks beyond Zay flowers. Like I wonder if this end up will end up being an undergame again, which we're picking a lot of and B if Lamar maybe the problem here as I see it, Debro is like there's not really an obvious QB1 on the week with Josh Allen facing Houston. If you are nervous about Lamar in his first game with the new play collar, it's like Joe burrow usually starts off slow. Jalen herds has a new play collar as well. Right. Like there's not like, you know, Justin Herbert well excited. But again, a new play collar. So there's not like an obvious QB1 to slot in there as far as I can tell. But yeah, this is some of some of my nervousness, Debro. Yeah. I mean, I think you could poke holes in all the top quarterbacks this week. I mean, I think like we could see like, Dak Prescott, BQB1 or Jared golf BQB1 this week. I mean, again, like you go down the laundry list of guys, Joe burrow Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, new play collars where they typically start slow. Justin Herbert has a smash matchup. But then Amari and Hampton's going to go for like three touchdowns. Herbert tosses none. And then we're all like oh, Justin Herbert had a really efficient game. Didn't lead to any fantasy points, but getting back to Lamar Jackson. Yeah, I've got some concerns, man. Like a new a brand new offense. It's going to ask new things out of Lamar Jackson to play on play on time, play in structure and things like that. But the reason why I do have I'm with it's like or you got to make QB1. I do it my QB2 is just the rushing. So I think this will be an undergame. But I think that the cults are kind of bringing the the total down. I think that this total is only so high because of last year's cults with Daniel Jones and a lot of that carrying this total. Like I think this total should be more of like the 45 and a half type of variety than 48. I know that that obviously is very different than the betting markets. But I like the under in this game. I think Lamar could still get it done with his legs. I love Mark Andrews matchup. We've talked about that on previous shows. I think Zay Flowers can get it done versus House Gardner. We'll see each other various for plays in this game. But I'm worried about Lamar. But I think the rushing will definitely can raise the ceiling and floor like it always does for Lamar. I think this is sneaky one of the most fascinating games of the entire slate. Just like what does Lamar look like with Declan Doyle? What does the Jesse Mentor defense look like with him now? Just his first game as head coach. What does Daniel Jones look like coming off of the injury? I mean, some of the talking camps are pretty positive. Luan Arumo has been pretty good against Lamar in the past when he was a cincy like as a defensive play car. Like this is just a really fascinating chess match to me. So I'm even aside from being a Ravens fan. What does Alan here look like? And his first game. What's his ration marks in this one? So I'm really, really intrigued by that game. Next one here. A little less intrigued by this one. Browns at Jaguars. I don't really want to spend too much time on this one. So I'll just give this very simple. Parker Washington was every fantasy analyst favorite draft darling this season predict his week one stat line, Debra. I will give you seven catches for 80 and a touchdown and it could be more than that. I think that James Gladstone is trying to get this Parker Washington contract done before week one for very good reason because I think Parker Washington could eat a week one. So I'm going more of a median and not like the true high end high end projection for Parker Washington. Miles Harden, the slot corner for Cleveland was got off the last year, gave up a 71.9% catch rate 119 pass rating as coverage amongst 34 qualifying slot corners last year. That was the fifth highest pass rating and coverage ninth most fantasy points for target. And the ninth highest rate of step or separation last year. And I think if you look at just you zoom out and you look at just the sample of Windens award and Tyson Campbell were healthy last year. This Browns defense was an elite unit versus perimeter wide receivers. They gave up in those eight games. The third lowest marks and fantasy points per target in yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. I think you look at this matchup. It funnels targets to Parker Washington. I think Britain strange can have low key a really good game quieter games for Brian Thomas Jr. and Jacobi Myers on the outside of Parker Washington. I think he's going to justify the big contract that I think is coming for him fits. Give me Parker Washington stat line. Nine targets six catches 81 yards. Just want to give you something commensurate with my wide receiver 26 rating. Nice. I got him top 24 and already bet the over four and a half receptions right now. You can get it plus money out there in the market. Enjoy people. But by the way, if it's just very quickly because Debron I got this question a billion times in the stream. I referenced it earlier. I want to see what it says. What do you like between question lots in in Parker Washington this week. We got this question. I'm not kidding. Probably three dozen times on the stream yesterday. It over 20 over 25. I've got Watson ranked a little higher. I just think he's a little more integral to his team's offense than Washington is to his. But I mean, I really like both guys. That's a that's a tough one for me. Debron's answer was consistently start him both if you can. Yeah. Start it. That was like it. Start both. Start both. Yeah. But I've got Watson at water see for 18. I've got Parker Washington and a water see for 21. Okay. Yeah. Folks football is back and it's time to level up your approach to the NFL and college football this season because polymarket is here. 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I originally asked this question when I made this sheet about to a tongue of my Loha. It pretty much still applies if that ends up being Cooper Rush or Jack Strand or whoever. How far down the ranks are you dropping Falcons skill players with insert whoever the quarterback is here playing at quarterback, especially against the defense with such a strong front 70, bro. I'm not dropping Bajon Robinson. I think regardless, he's going to get checked down. He's going to get rushing volume. Not worried about him at all, but Drake London. I've adjusted down to wide receiver 12 and I could go, I mean, I'm probably going to nudge him a little bit lower depending on who's going to be under center. And we are to kind of cover Kyle Pits. I've bumped him down to tight in eight. I'm going to update both those guys in the primer by Friday night and stuff. And regardless of whoever the quarterback is, I'm worried about them. So yeah, I mean, we're bumping down Kyle Pits a lot. It's already sound like compared to consensus when we talked about him earlier. I think Fitz Drake London should definitely get bumped down like a pretty significantly to me. Yeah. Right now, I've got him a wide receiver 11 and that is with the, I'm, I've still got the, the two or ranks. And this is a guy who, if it were Michael Pennick's junior, even against the Steelers, I would have London inside the top 10. But yes, if it's going to be Cooper Rush and maybe even if it's going to be a compromise to, I do have to look at moving the London down a little bit. I've got B. John running back three. I had him behind McCaffrey this week and I've got Pits as we talked about it at tight end eight. I mean, it's sad. I'm not trying to be snarky here genuinely like there's no such thing as an uncompromised to anymore like every game he plays you're watching him it's he's not the quarterback he was coming out of college and when he said Alabama and it's like like even if it was to and this like latest tweak to as oblique didn't happen this week I would still be terrified of starting London in this matchup at Pittsburgh I I we've been talking about this a lot I really think the Steelers are just going to put the clamps on this offense like regardless of the court panics is the only quarterback that I would be you know more excited about for Atlanta the any other option I really think it's going to put really ugly just gonna forward I'll go ahead fizzy go I was just going to point out the spreads only what three and a half which right now it's not a wild yeah every but every time you think the Steelers are going to smash someone they lay an egg that's every time you think the Steelers are overmatched they somehow win the game but we talked about it but is that for my time on that right right yeah or we did we're dealing with a different Mike and Pittsburgh now I don't know all right but I'm with I was going to be shot and like right you can't drop them because he's he's be shot Robinson but like everybody else even though I think they're really good players like Jake London particularly I just I can't deep row before we move on quick PSA I've said it before it I'll say it again this team should be starting Jack strand I don't care about pinnix I don't care about I don't come on dude pinnix is not good 2026 max brozmer he don't do there's hope different they're they're not even comparable Michael pinnix he runs you many games to get through to have a brozmer versus strand let's go to the matchup that is the brozmer versus strand of matchups this week Jen Titans the total on this game consensus of betting pros 39 and a half the lowest of the week by a wide margin if I force you to pick one player in this matchup to be significantly above consensus on sort of the opposite of those high totals questions we were asking who would it be fits is there anybody that you are above consensus on in this poor matchup yeah both the backup running backs and especially Taijay spears I have spears at running back 39 and I think even that might be too low I just think the Titans backfield is going to be more of a time share than most people realize and in the preseason when cam ward was on the field spears and Tony Pollard's split snaps pretty evenly think spears might have even had like one or two more snaps in on cam ward snaps in the preseason and Pollard dead so I think that's going be a tighter division of labor than people realize also braille and Allen I just breeze hall coming off this groin injury I don't think the jets want to beat him into the ground we've they've talked pretty openly about like wanting to use a multi pronged backfield so I think braille and Allen's going to get a little more work than maybe people realize so both ready backs here for fits is called zero who are you above consensus on I'd make the case for carnal tape and I know how bad cam ward looked in the preseason I'm very worried about cam ward but playing the other side of the coin here the jet secondary is not good man like Brandon Stevens is not good last year give of one 26.4 pass rating nation right is not anybody that I I'm worried about in coverage if cam ward can just run the Daniel Jones version of this freaking offense from Brian day of all cam I mean carnal take and have a really good game here so you know it bucking all the the preseason worries and not coming out with a catch and stuff which really wasn't a can carnal tape thing that was a car cam ward problem if cam ward can can put it together in this game carnal take and have a really good one you neither you guys picked the player that I was sort of circling in my head which is one Dale Robinson just you know familiarity with Brian day ball of course obviously they paid him to bring him in this off season and he's he's down at water super 42 I think in any sort of league we're getting you know points even a half point PPR but any sort of league we're getting anything for catching passes I think you might catch a lot of passes in this game and it won't be like a superstar performance but it'll be like you look up and in PPR oh he had like 14 points of PPR because he caught so many balls I think that's on the table for one so I like him above consensus to I'm starting him in a league this week I'm a full of consensus on him so I'm with you man a lot of names to be above consensus on apparently in this one so I don't I don't feel great about that but if you're not sure who to start get fast free starter sit advice with the fantasy pros who should I start tool compare your players and get instant recommendations powered by more than 150 fantasy experts set your best line up today at fantasy pros dot com slash start we're through the early slate guys let's go to the late afternoon slate cardinals at chargers Marvin Harrison junior and Quentin Johnston are just two spots apart in week one ECR at the wide receiver position who do you guys like to have a better stat line in this game between the two Debra I'll start with you Quentin Johnston I think that he was the wider seaver one for the chargers when he was healthy last year I think he's been the wider seaver one for the chargers this year I think he's going to have a big game in this one I mean again going to a secondary that I'm not worried about at all cardinal secondary give the ninth most yards per target to perimeter wide receivers last year so I think you Jake and have a big game whereas I mean the chargers secondary is still kind of underrated I know they lost Jesse mentor in the offseason Marvin Harrison junior still has to catch passes from Jacobi percent so we'll see how that goes by the way I said there were two spots apart it has updated since I put together show sheet there now one spot apart they are literally neck and neck in ECR it is wide receiver 33 for Marvin Harrison junior wide receiver 34 Quentin Johnston that's in half a PR rankings fits who do you like better I've got Harrison wide receiver 30 so I guess I'm a little ahead of consensus on him and I've got QJ wide receiver 36 so just behind consensus I think it's more about game flow for me and I don't like to make sweeping assumptions about game scripts and how things are going to go but look the the chargers are favored by what 10 points like they're the biggest favorites on the slate I don't expect the Cardinals to lead the NFL and pass attempts again this season but I do expect them to skew somewhat pass heavy in week one as big underdogs with Jeremiah love probably not ready to handle 20 carries coming off the high ankle sprains I think they're going to be pass heavy and I don't know a lot of people think this is going to be kind of a close split between Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison junior but last year when Marvin Harrison junior was on the field Michael Wilson was invisible you know he did all his damage when Marvin Harrison junior was hurt so I've got MHJ ranks, you know top 30. I I kind of agree with you fits just in the sense of like the game script this isn't 9 1/2 as a spread by the way is the consensus on Benning Pro's dot com and I I like I know we spent all off season saying like listen they're not going to pass as much as they did last year but in this one I think they might have to try to keep up and this might be what where even if it's garbage time like I do think he will get some catches I also like and we talked a lot about this in the dynasty show fits I need another year before I'm willing to totally put the nail in the coffin on Marvin Harrison junior's career I'm not think he's going to be the superstar that was that we thought was promised you know when he came in but I'm I'm not ready to rule out like a legitimate step forward this year if Mike if Michael for can do something more with this offense even with the quarterback question mark so you hit it on the head the new play collar and I just think we have to lower expectations that he's probably not going to achieve the superstar level we thought he was capable of coming into the league but I think he could still be a really good receiver yeah and I definitely think that he's higher in the pecking more than Michael Wilson I agree with both y'all because this just splits with Wilson just kind of tell the tale and everybody's going to the contract and stuff and I'm like that's just that's just the the franchise saying look you're really good number two wide receiver in our offense we're dropping a quarter back in this we don't want to lose you that's all that is for the record I probably have both these guys ahead of consensus not and not just Martin Harrison junior than I like him slightly better I like both of these guys relatives and Michael Wilson no, no, no Marvin Harrison junior quite in Johnston Oh, okay, I was like man, you're really high on Jacobi percent no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Martin Harrison Jr. Ed and Johnston, all right let's go to the next game here at Dolphins at Raiders just a couple of days ago we found out that Brock Bower has had a procedure done on his knee shaving off some of that meniscus and he is expected to miss one to two games or more those last I saw I don't know if there's been an update on the timetable there where you guys ranking Michael mayor against the dolphins in Bowers is absent, Steve, bro, I've got mayor a tight in 13 I think high and tied in two is kind of like the range now you know we could quibble on like tight in 13 versus tight in 17 or 18 I think there's a long like laundry list of guys like whether we want to talk about King Cade Ferguson strange ought and dulcich all these different guys that were, you know, whoever scores a freaking touchdown this week like we can quibble upon like where we have them ranked, but I think Michael mayor is going to get a lot of targets in this game. Is he going to be Brock Bower's eskin this game? No, they're different players, but the matchups really good Miami gave up the ninth most charts per target and fantasy points for opportunity to tight ends this defense did not improve in the offseason. So yeah, I mean, I'm not like crazy high on Michael mayor, but like if you got Bowers and now you're like, okay, who the heck do I play? You should have picked up Michael mayor and you're probably starting him. So just looking at this matchup, I think it's pretty good. But I the other thing I'll add here, I think the Raiders are being extremely positive about the time possible missed for Brock Bowers. I think it's going to be longer than two games. I hope I'm wrong, but that feels like very positive. By the way, I should have mentioned Titan 15 in consensus right now from Michael mayor. That's obviously got up. in the last couple of days. The three names ahead of him, Jake Ferguson, Dalton, Kincaid, Mark Andrews. Like, I know we like to match up for Andrews. Kincaid, we talked about a little during that Buffalo Houston preview. We haven't gotten to Dallas yet, but some interesting, like, I almost think Mayor's more interesting if you waited on Titan and then picked him up now, as opposed to like, if you had Bowers, you just pick him up and start him and that's kind of an easy call. If you didn't draft Bowers and you had one of these, like, guys who was ranked in this 11 to 15/16 range, that to me fits is where it gets a little more interesting about if you're gonna start mayor or not. Where's he ranked for you? - Titan 11. - Nice. - So last year when the Raiders shut down Bowers for three games early in the year, after he sprained his PCL in week one, wasn't himself the next couple of games. So they shut him down. Michael Mayor missed the first of those three games that Bowers missed, but then Mayor came back. And the second of those games had five catches for 50 yards in a touchdown on seven targets. Then in the third game that Bowers missed, Mayor only one catch for 10 yards, but that was a game where the Raiders got demolished by the Chiefs 31 and nothing and ran fewer than 40 offensive plays. That was just a complete washout offensively for them. The Raiders have a real coaching staff this year. They've improved their offensive line. Kirk Cousins historically has been a very tight and friendly quarterback. And perhaps most important of all, if you're looking for reasons to play Michael Mayor this week, the Miami defensive backfield could be the worst in the league, like really young and inexperienced. Chris Johnson, their late first round rookie, probably the best guy in their defensive backfield hasn't played NFL snap yet. And at safety, again, safety is very responsible for tight end coverage. They've got two fifth round draft picks, one rookie, one a second year guy. I think Dante Trader and Michael Taff are the guys. Like I think Mayor could have a good week. I've got him, yeah, inside tight end one range. Yeah, I could seem being top 12. Our colleague Mike Mayer, we're expecting to have a big game this week, but just in case people don't know, we have a friend and coworker whose name is Michael Mayer. I'm not saying we work with the Raiders tight end. Next game. Who, by the way, I don't know if he wears Michael Mayer jerseys 24/7. I think that might be a thing. I think he doesn't love to have Michael Mayer in every league for the reason his last name, which I respect. He definitely embraces the bit. Packers at Vikings. I could have gone with more of a narrative question here. Like a Kyler Murray's first game. I feel like we talked about that a lot all summer long. Like just what this offense is going to look like under Kyler. And I kind of want to see it rather than try to guess what exactly it'll look like. So I want to do kind of a strict rankings question here. There are two running backs in this game who are very close in ECR. Marshawn Lloyd for the Packers, Jordan Mason for the Vikings. When I put this together, they were five spots apart. I'll double check to see how close they are now, because obviously a couple of times earlier today that has changed, they are still five spots apart. Okay, I'm sorry, they're four spots apart. Marshawn Lloyd is RB28. Jordan Mason is RB32. Fitz, who do you prefer for week one? So I also have Marshawn Lloyd RB28. But I've got Jordan Mason RB26. And I think people are maybe sleeping on the likelihood that Mason is the lead back for the Vikings. And they have a redesign run scheme that apparently is a great fit for him. I don't know, just like, I've heard beat riders, smart people observing the Vikings in training camps say they think like Mason is the guy. This year in the Aaron Jones, it's going to be more of a change of pace guy. So Packers did have a lot of trouble defending the run late last year, although they had some injuries, Michael Parsons, Devante, Wyatt. Still, I think a pretty favorable matchup for Mason. And with Lloyd, I just, I don't think they're giving him that many carries this week. Like they're not giving him 20 carries with his injury history. I think Chris Brooks is going to get a good number of running back snaps for the Packers. And yeah, I'm not seeing a Derek Henry Ask workload for Marshawn Lloyd this week. So Mason, just a smidge higher. So Debro Fitz is exactly in line with consensus on Lloyd. He's just well ahead of consensus on Jordan Mason. Where are you at on these two guys? I have got Jordan Mason at RB 30. And I've got Lloyd right outside the top 24. I think Lloyd's going to get more of the backfield than Chris Brooks because of the past game utility. I'm not saying he's going to get 20 carries, but I think like 15 to 17 opportunities, like with also like three or four catches in this game, I think it can definitely be had. And 50, like I got more respect on the Packers run defense, man. Like I know they struggled a little bit down the back half of the last year, but in totality, they give it the sixth lowest explosive run rate. The fifth fewest yards are to contact for attempt last year. Like I think Kyler struggles in this game. And I think it's going to have a downward effect on Jordan Mason. I think he is, I'm totally with you on that. He is going to be the lead back this year. And I'm very excited to see what Minnesota can do on the ground with him. But I'm also excited to see like what Lloyd can do against this Minnesota run defense. Like they've got new parts and pieces. Caitlin Banks is brand new, big citrus is brand new. Does this Vikings run defense look much improved from last year because they were a middle of the road unit last year. They were 16th and explosive run rate, 15th and yards are to contact for attempt. They give the sixth highest rushing success rate. So I'm pro Lloyd on this one by the way, very quickly. Don't even give me an explanation. Just give me a name who is ranked higher after two quarterbacks for you guys in this game. Kyler or Jordan love this week fits. Yeah, debatable whether it's a really good matchup for Jordan Mason in the running game, less debatable. I think that Kyler is a great matchup. He's actually 11 for me this week. Oh, okay. Packers, I don't know what the past rush is going to look like without Mike Parsons and their cornerbacks are not good. Like I think their best cornerback is their second round rookie brand in CSA. It's good analysis, but it makes me laugh that I was like, just give me a name, no deep dive. And if it's going on, it's okay. Deva, who's ranked higher for you of those two? Jordan love, easy, Jordan love. He's been awesome versus the Blitz. And we know Brian Flores is going to blitz him. How many touched on passes did the Vikings give up over the second half of last season? It was like one in their last seven or eight games. I was going to say it's interesting because Jordan love has had really big games against Brian Flores. Vikings defenses before, but his last two have not been good all. So it's like he has it on his resume, but not recently. So I'm curious. I know we're supposed to go short with this with the flip side of the Kyler coin. If there is any coach in the entire freaking NFL that knows both Kyler's strengths and his obvious weaknesses, you have to believe it's Jonathan Ganon. That's a good point. And Kyler is not good versus too high and not to push back against Fitz here. The Parsons thing is an issue, but here's the other side of that coin. I don't really care about the past rush. If you're forcing Kyler to play from the pocket, he can't see over the offensive line. He doesn't throw to the middle of the field. He's playing against too high coverage. This all seems like a kind of a letdown spot for Kyler for me. But deeper off the packers are in too high all day. Doesn't that mean light boxes and that Jordan Mason should smash against that defense? Oh, it depends. We'll see if your Packers run defense comes to play if it's he. All right. That was a much longer detour than I meant us to take apologies there. No apologies. I will not apologize for it. Let's go to commanders at Eagles. Another game where I'm really surprised by the the spread here. We'll get to that in a second. Two new young offensive coordinators in this one, David Blouge, Sean Manion. We talked about this actually in our season preview key questions episode, which offense is going to hit the ground running in week one with a new play collar or will it be neither or both? Debro. I think the Eagles had a better chance to do that. I don't know if either one of them do that out the gate, but I think the Eagles had the better chance to do that. Do what I got to see in this game is the commander's offensive line functional enough to allow the commanders and David Blouge to do the things that he wants to do because I'm really worried about this offensive line, especially attacking the Eagles in week one. Given how that tweet went around, you might ask if it's going to be operable, the offensive line, because the word keyword was inoperable during a training camp, fits what do you think? Who is going to hit the ground running? I'll make up for lost time with the short answer here, Sean Manion. The Eagles defense is nasty. I think it's almost in the Texans sea hawks category and we know about the Washington offensive line problems. Yeah, if those teams are tier one defense, I think Eagles Denver, those are like the tier two defenses. I'm looking at that. They're still really, really good. I have a second question on this game, which is kind of along those lines. Every Eagle is actually ranked higher in their week one ECR than the area they were drafted. This summer, and every commander is ranked lower in week one ECR than where they were drafted this summer. So based on these fantasy rankings, we seem to very much think that the Eagles are heavy favorites in this one. I would agree with that ranking sentiment personally, and yet the line on polymarket is just four and a half points. So might this game end up being closer than expected, fits, or do you think this, we talk about what Falcon Steelers is just an example of like this line might be smaller than you would expect for a reason? Well, I bet the Eagles side tend to think not and that the line is too tight. I agree. I think the line is, I think the simple answer here is the line is wrong. Okay. Let's go to Sunday night football Cowboys at Giants sticking in the same division. Of course, with both guys healthy, predict the respective stat lines for CD Lamb and George Pickens in week one, including number of targets. I'm curious what you guys think. The target share is going to look like fits. I'll start with you. I'm going to make it a very close split of the workload. I'm going to say 11 targets for CD. lamb seven catches for 93 yards in a touchdown. 10 targets for George Pickens six catches 90 yards and a touchdown. Do you think most games this season fits your expecting these stat lengths look very similar or do you think one of these guys will be ranked higher? It's going to be all over the place all season. Yeah. Okay. At the end of the year, do you think it'll be like very close to each other? They'll be close in the rankings or do you think any guy will have separated? I think if they're healthy, though, they probably finish within four spots of each other in fantasy points. It's going. Okay. Debra. I went really nerdy with this. So on fantasy pros, we have a Dak Prescott projected for 35 passing attempts. If you look at the 12 games with CD and Pickens versus two high coverage, which the giants have Denard Wilson calling plays now Tennessee, where he was previously over the last two years, ninth highest and two high rate. When CD and Pickens were on the field together last year, lamb had a 23% target share versus two high. Pickens was at 19% moving this over back to Dak Prescott's 35 passing attempts. I think lamb has eight targets, pickens seven, put them both in the range of 80 to 90 receiving yards and maybe both them get in the end zone here. When you said you were going to go nerdy, I was expecting to get like, all right. So I think CD's yards per out run is going to be I mean, I could give you yards per out run against too high. I could give you free shares, but for time, I was not going to. But I can. No, no, you're good. I do. Just quickly like on this receiving room, like, does any part of you think that like CD might become the clear number one again now that he's not dealing with the ankle injury stuff that he had last year? Or do you like, like, do you think the fact that this is looks like it might be close is because he was limited last year and he might elevate into a clear number one. Number two, or do you think it'll be a true one A one B this season when both are healthy, Debro? I think that much to what Fitz was talking about now that the pickens previous years had massive DK mech calf level splits versus single high and too high. Those splits closed the gap massively last year with the way Dallas used him. And again, back to the two high coverage to this point CD lamb 2.2 yards per out running those 12 games versus two high George Pickens 1.9. I think that they are going to be very coverage specific single high matchups. You're going to see more pickens downfield shots to high. You're going to see more of CD lamb eating. So it's going to be very back and forth depending on the week. Every Sunday night football matchup we're going to talk about our favorite bets from the prop bet cheat sheet of betting pros dot com fits what's your favorite three or four star bet from the cheat sheet. It's a four star betteds David Montgomery over 54 and a half rushing yards. I just think Monty is going to be a big part of the Texans offensive game plan in what should be kind of a low scoring rock fight. And the bills give up the six most most rushing yards to running backs last season they give up five yards per carry to running backs. Texans have upgraded their offensive line. I think Monty clears this bar. Debra, what's your favorite prop bet this week? I'm going to go with Isaiah likely. I'm going to stay in the Sunday night game on the prop bet cheat sheet. We're projecting the over for Isaiah likely is receiving yards. The line is 35 and a half. I'm taking the over there. I know that Dallas improved their defense a lot out neighbors. Is he 100% out the gate? You look at this matchup and I know they had a Caleb Downs and they had a lot over other plays pieces and parts on this defense. Isaiah likely could be the clear number two in this passing attack and just if any of this crosses over this year, the Dallas Cowboys and weeks 12 through 18 last year give the fourth most yards per target to opposing tight ends. Those were our top prop bets for Sunday night football and for the rest of the week courtesy of the betting pros, prop bet cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with a betting pros, prop bet cheat sheet, quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value, make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at betting pros.com/props. One last game here guys Broncos at Chiefs Monday night football. This is an obvious question to ask. Debro, how is Patrick Mahomes going to look in his first game back from injury up against a strong defense like Denver's? Dink and Dunk very like just short area throws like he's looked for the last few years. Again, I think the ball is going to get out of his hands very, very quickly a lot of underneath stuff, a lot of drag routes like usual for Hershey Rice. I think we're to see some screens for Kenneth Walker. Really the impetus is going to be get the ball out of his hands and I don't think we're going to see a ton of rushing from homes in this game. Where's Mahomes ranked for you, Debra? He's QB 20 in consensus. QB 20. Yeah, I've got to be to yeah. Okay. Fits, what do you think we're going to see out of Mahomes here in week one? I'm not wildly optimistic. I think he threw for what like 245 yards in his one game against Denver last week, but needed like 45 pass attempts to do it. One touchdown. Yeah, average like 6.1 yards per attempt. I just think it's kind of more of the same with fewer passing attempts. They're not going to let him drop back 45 times coming off that injury. So I've got him rank QB 22. Fits, are you down on like all the chiefs players? Walker is, you know, I think I'll be 12. I want to say, you know, Hershey Rice is why does she be 18? I'm a little below. I think I'm pretty consistently below consensus on every. Not way below consensus, but like basically one or two on just about every guy. I got Hershey Rice at White receiver 22. I've got Walker at RB 12. Where's Kelsey at tied in to 11. So, yeah. Chiefs are favored by two and a half. And this one, it is at Arrowhead. I kind of like the Broncos plus the points. Yeah, that's a favor. Yeah. Broncos. Yeah, I mean, I know it's the home's back in there at home. But like I kind of like that. It's given way too much favor to the chiefs in this game. Last question. The episode consensus total here is 43 and a half. I like the under. Do you guys agree or do you guys prefer the over? I like the under. I mean, I just, I'm going to go, you know, underson with a lot of this. I'm channeling my best injury. It's a week one. It's a good defense. It's my home's back from injury. Like, yeah, I mean, both lines go to injury too. A different type of injury, right? So yeah, I like the under your fits. Also under. I mean, you can most seasons, few just bet 16 unders in week one. You're going to come out making a profit. I've already got two under my belt so far. Erickson, I talked a lot about they don't call it the land down over. They call it the land down under. So we're off to a hot start there. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. I know we kind of spread it through the end that we had a hard out today. Normally, we'll give a little more time to breathe in those later games. So hopefully everybody enjoys the show and as a good week one, best of luck in all your leagues here. And we are finally just a couple of days away from a full NFL Sunday. I absolutely can't wait for fits and Debra. I'm Ryan Warhamley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasyproze.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok @FantasyPros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/FantasyPros. Hey, I'm Mike M. And I'm Trevor Sikama. Are you ready to dominate your fantasy league this season? Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, would you be the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count? 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