Fantasy Football Trade Targets: The Best WR & TE Buys and Sells for Week 3 (Ep. 2211)
49m 20s
The Fantasy Pros Football Podcast features a detailed analysis of players to buy and sell in Week 3, focusing on wide receivers and tight ends. Josh Downs is highlighted as a top-tier buy due to a larger role in the Colts' offense after injuries to Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen, with strong production and volume increases in Week 2. Garrett Wilson is also recommended as a high-ceiling buy on the Jets, leveraging a favorable schedule and improved quarterback play. Chicago Bears pass catchers like Colson Loveland, Roman Dunzay, and Luther Burden are seen as undervalued buys due to poor early performance. George Pickens is advised for sale, as market sentiment remains high despite underwhelming stats, with better alternatives like Davante Smith and Parker Washington offering stronger upside. Jake Ferguson is marked as a low-value tight end to sell due to minimal targets and dependence on touchdowns. Terry McLaurin is held as a potential buy, while Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden are considered holds due to injury risks and inconsistent production. The analysis underscores the importance of reading matchups, quarterback health, and schedule dynamics to identify value. A recurring theme is the use of market inefficiencies to make smarter trades, even when players have talent but lack recent production. The episode concludes with a reminder that trades are highly contextual and should be evaluated based on individual team dynamics and roster needs.
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Hello, everybody.
Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast.
I'm Ryan Wormley, joined by Andrew Erickson
on this Tuesday morning.
We are talking players to buy and sell for week three.
If you missed it, we already did the running backs
and quarterbacks episode.
That should already be available.
YouTube, Spotify, anywhere else to get your podcast.
This is our wide receivers and tight ends version
of the episode.
We are splitting the episode into two moving forward.
So be on the lookout for both smaller episodes
week to week here on The Trade Show.
Erickson, we can go ahead and dive right in.
Wide receivers to buy is where we're gonna start.
You've got a couple, I've got one.
Let's start with one of yours.
Josh Downs.
The time is now for Josh Downs to be the prince
that was promised, step up in a full-time role finally
for the Indianapolis Colts and to be a big part
of this team's passing game moving forward.
Last week in week two against Kansas City Chiefs,
Downs led the Colts.
The Colts with a 27.3 target share,
which more than doubled his volume from week one.
He had seven catches for 72 yards on an 83% snap rate
and was the team leader in routes run
for the second straight week.
So 2026 has been pretty good for Josh Downs
in terms of his run out.
His role has changed in the offense
where he's not just being pigeonholed into,
okay, you're in the slot.
You're only playing at 11 personnel.
Like he is a full-time wide receiver on this team
and that has not changed with the addition of Keenan Allen.
We know that Alec Pierce is gonna miss significant time
after.
You're injuring his heel.
We know he had ankle surgery this off season.
So there's a re-aggravation there.
We don't know if we're gonna see him again.
So Downs, I think has a golden opportunity now
to step up and become the focal point of this passing game
alongside Tyler Warren because Keenan Allen, man,
I don't know if you were watching it super closely
on Sunday night, but that guy could not get open.
He looked all of 33 years old, 34 years old
because those Kansas City Chiefs defensive backs
were all over Allen.
And maybe he has just kind of,
hit father time where he just doesn't have the juice anymore
to create separation.
We know that those guys,
especially with these older receivers, man,
doesn't all come crashing down at once.
We're like, yep, no, he's, he's cooked at this point.
So I'm not afraid of Keenan Allen as a threat to Josh Downs
who this team has been super excited about.
He's been historically one of the most efficient receivers
the last couple of years in terms of creating separation
in terms of commanding targets at a high rate
whenever he runs routes.
And that was clearly apparent in week two.
So Josh Downs,
for me, he's still a player that I think is still kind of
in that wide receiver three range would not surprise me
whatsoever.
He's a top 24 wide receiver rest of season,
especially if we don't get out Pierce back at any point.
So he's a buy for me.
I have always liked Josh Downs, the player.
I've been a believer in him from watching him.
I've been a believer in him from the guys in the industry
that I really trust to evaluate, right?
Wide receiver is quite liking him.
I've just, I've always really liked the player
have never quite liked the usage.
And I was, I will admit it terrified
of the Keenan Allen edition
because we have seen what he has done
to young receivers that we like at other stops,
both in LA and Chicago,
where he has really nuked the value of guys
that we thought were ready to take a step forward.
So the fact that he has not looked good
and hasn't done this to Josh Downs so far
is incredibly encouraging to me
as somebody who has always, again,
liked the player, Josh Downs,
who it's hard to describe,
but I can't believe he's still only 25 years old.
Like, I feel like we've been talking about Downs for a while.
So I like this a lot.
And what I also like about it, Erickson,
is he has in half PPR scoring,
he has scored this season, not in any given week,
this season, 15 and a half points.
Like this is not a player who has come out of the gates
so hot that he is, you know, lighting up box scores.
He doesn't have a touchdown yet.
You know, he had nine targets,
seven catches, 72 yards in this last game.
So people are going to be a little bit more excited,
but like he had a down week,
one, he's got Houston this week.
So it's, oh, you know, tough defense coming up
in the next few weeks at Pittsburgh,
at Minnesota, at Jacksonville.
So, you know, if the Josh Downs manager
is looking like that, they might be saying,
hey, maybe this is an opportunity to sell
on an offensive, in a passing game
that I don't want to be involved in.
I think it's a smart bet to take,
especially in any league that rewards you for,
you know, a catch, right?
Whether it's half PPR or full PPR.
I like this a lot because I think he's affordable.
Wide receiver 61, wide receiver 23 the last two,
two weeks to start the season.
Again, a player I like Pierce going out for a while.
Allen looking cooked.
Like I know Tyler Warren is obviously still there
and, and Daniel Jones needs to be better
for him to be truly like taking a major step forward.
But I'm hopeful that Jones will continue to look better
throughout the course of the season
as it gets further and further removed from the injury.
And, and again, at the end of the day,
like I just think Downs is a good player, man.
So I like this one.
Yeah, I think it's simplest form.
Josh Downs is,
a good player.
You want to buy good players,
especially at wide receiver,
because I think that is where the talent matters the most
because you don't always get the favorable usage.
Well, now we're going to get the favorable usage
for Josh Downs in terms of volume,
in terms of opportunity,
in terms of him running enough routes.
I think it's worth mentioning that the Colts signed
Darius Slayton to their roster
to fill that field stretcher type role of the offense.
So that will help hopefully take things
and create things more underneath.
Obviously his impact is not the same as a player
like Alec Pierce,
but that's,
that being said,
Josh Downs could also be used more vertically
because of the lack of Alec Pierce.
So again,
buying into the good player and dude,
we've seen this Colts defense play for two straight weeks.
It's not good,
not a good defense.
So if they're playing in more high scoring games,
they play in a dome.
That's where Josh Downs can really thrive.
So you were asking me about his rest of season ranking.
Yeah, I was going to,
so it's,
it's a wide receiver 34.
I want to throw out some rapid fire names
that are in that same range.
In the consensus rest of season rankings
to see who you prefer.
And you don't need to give a full explanation.
He's just very quickly shooting from the hip.
Who do you like better?
Josh Downs or Jalen Coker?
I think I'm going to take Coker at 30.
Josh Downs.
Yeah, I would agree on Coker by the way.
He's a couple spots ahead.
Josh Downs or Stefan Diggs?
I would take Downs over Diggs.
Josh Downs or Carnell Tate,
who I talked about as a sell last week,
feeling pretty good about that one.
Yes.
Victory lap.
Take it.
Take your victory lap.
I would take Josh Downs over Tate.
Josh Downs or Chris Godwin?
Downs.
Josh Downs or Denzel Boston?
Have them ranked back to back,
but I will take Downs.
Last one here,
and they are ranked back to back in consensus.
Josh Downs or Matthew Golden?
I knew you were going to ask.
So yeah, I mean,
my rankings have been updated.
They're not always updated.
I was saving him as the last one.
But I will,
I will go with Matthew Golden.
Okay.
Yes, obviously a real opportunity.
But yeah, no,
I think that like,
I have a Coker,
Golden, Downs.
That's how I have those three in that order.
I feel good about that order,
but it is tight.
It's just a matter of Downs
following in the production
because Coker's produced,
Golden has produced so far two games.
We're just hoping now,
okay,
everything's pointing to Downs
is going to be producing.
So,
but those veteran guys,
right?
Diggs maybe should have been a player
we talked about as a sell high,
where he's got a lot of touchdowns
over the first couple weeks of the season.
You know,
have a brand new quarterback coming in.
Terry's going to get his eventually,
right?
Someone that bet the anytime touchdown
for Terry McLaurin.
You can't imagine how frustrating
watching week two was,
where he has like three opportunities
for touchdowns
and he doesn't score any of them.
It just ends with another dud game.
So,
Diggs,
I would definitely trade
and flip for Josh Downs.
And I think that's something
you could probably do.
I think,
I think you're right.
I think you could do that.
DK Metcalf,
by the way,
is in this range too.
I didn't even ask
because I know your answer is on that one.
But I mean,
he could be a sell low,
honestly.
Dude,
he's so,
he's so frustrating.
Yeah.
Agreed.
Let me give you a wide receiver to buy here
before we get to your next one.
Garrett Wilson.
And I talked a little bit about this
in the running back show.
So I would,
again,
encourage people to check that out
if they missed it.
They're going to hear me say
some of the same things
because this is another jet,
but the schedule is incredible.
This is a player that,
and again,
I also mentioned this in the other show,
we talked about with Tara
on a moves to make episode
earlier this week.
She's very interested
in buying Garrett Wilson.
And,
almost everything I said
about Brees Hall
in the running backs episode,
you could copy paste
for Garrett Wilson.
I think he's somebody
that you are,
have seen the floor so far
and there's a lot more ceiling available.
I think he's somebody
who is attainable
because he's currently ranked
as wide receiver 18
in the consensus
rest of season rankings.
Brees Hall was RB 17
in that running backs conversation.
So again,
very similar between the two.
He's ranked as a wide receiver two
and that's what he's been
the first two weeks of the season.
I think you're going to get
wide receiver one
or close to that.
Just a wide receiver one
production moving forward
because again,
it's a very good player.
I mean,
even better than like
we're talking about with Josh Downs,
just a good player.
This is just a great player, right?
He hasn't always been able
to show it in his production
because of the quarterback situation,
but this is a great wide receiver
who is getting
functional quarterback play.
He's getting competent
quarterback play,
serviceable.
These are amazing words to hear
as a longtime dynasty manager
of Garrett Wilson
because we have often seen
nothing close to that.
And Erickson again,
just in case folks,
missed the running backs episode at Detroit.
at Chicago over the next two weeks.
That's amazing.
Coursillo to the NFL and Chicago defense.
Home against Cleveland, whose defense you always like to talk about
doesn't travel as well.
At New England, if he's getting Christian Gonzalez, that might be tough.
But then home for Miami, home for Las Vegas.
Buffalo's in there.
Another Miami game is in there.
At the Chargers is in there.
I mean, it just looks really good pretty much until you get to that
bye week in Week 13.
Everything between now and then looks incredible, Erickson.
So I really think Garrett Wilson is going to be the type of player that
because it's the Jets and because he has burned managers before,
there's not going to be that much enthusiasm about the upside.
I think a lot of people are going to continue to look at Garrett Wilson
as a floor play, but I think you are actually making a ceiling play
if you are trading for him given the schedule, given the functionality
of the Jets offense and the fact that, you know, it's not like
Omar Cooper's taking targets away, right?
Like there's injuries in this receiving room.
There's ineffective other pass catchers in this receiving room.
Garrett Wilson is the clear number one in an offense that's moving the ball okay.
And I think he's going to score a lot of points in the next two,
two and a half months.
So I think it's a ceiling play disguised as a floor play.
Your goal this week.
No, no, no.
Your mission this week is to get Jets players on your fantasy football.
Team in 2026 feels weird to say, but it's right, dude.
We had all the reasons for guys like Garrett Wilson during the running back show.
You're talking about Brees Hall.
This offense is set to smash based on all these matchups.
And we know these are good players, right?
It's one thing to really buy into the matchup when it's a fringe guy
that you're not really sure about.
But we know Brees Hall is a stud.
We know Garrett Wilson is a stud.
A.D. Mitchell, he's fun, too.
He could probably have a monster game against the Patriots
if Gonzalez is covering Garrett Wilson.
He out-targeted Garrett Wilson last week.
So I think the Jets are doing the right thing offensively.
Frank Greinke has shown a little bit more than I think we were giving him credit for
as the offensive play caller.
So, yeah, man, all aboard.
What could go wrong?
Yeah, famous last words.
This feels we are, I will admit,
if I'm taking a step back and evaluating the situation,
we are maybe too enthusiastic about recommendations.
Many Jets players.
That has burned many people in the past.
So I am aware of that.
Can you trade Rashi Rice for Garrett Wilson?
Asking for a friend who may or may not have Rashi Rice on their roster
that they're trying to trade.
I think you can.
I don't think it's like, oh, every manager out there would accept that.
I think there are some who would.
So that's why I say, like, it's not like a guarantee,
but I think it is possible depending on the right.
Again, I say this so much on this show because trades are the most contextual,
thing in fantasy, but context, you know, dependent.
I think you can with the right manager.
Because Rice, Rice, I think is interesting in terms of just like,
I think there is a real case for Rice as a buy low,
even though he has not looked very good to start the season.
You know, we, last year,
this was a team that was really invested in using him in the red zone.
And I like at some point,
Kenneth Walker will have to get, start getting fewer touches.
Like he, he will not hold up with the workload he's getting this season.
As fun as it's been to watch and Mahomes looks pretty darn back.
So like all of that to me says that Rice is a good buy low.
So I think you talked to the right person.
I would prefer Garrett Wilson between the two, just, but that is a,
I prefer Garrett Wilson because of Garrett Wilson, not because of Rasheed Rice.
I think Rice is a good buy low.
Yeah.
Rice is interesting because they play the dolphins this week, the rate, but it's,
it's kind of a risk reward, right?
Because what if he doesn't do any, like, what if his role isn't changing and this
offense.
This is totally running back centric and it's not Rasheed Rice that sees an
increased workload when they taper back Ken Walker.
It's, oh, we're just going to feature Emmett Johnson.
We're just going to give the guys that we know are really good on our team.
And Rice, we kind of know has always been kind of uplifted by his role in the
offense as the, how the kids say PPR scam merchant underneath for Rasheed Rice,
getting a ton of red zone opportunities.
But where's he in rest season rankings?
Cause he's someone that I look at a lot.
He's wide receiver 24 and consensus rest of season ranking.
That feels too low to me.
So, yeah, I have, I mean, I'm, I'm definitely the one that's probably bringing him down
then because I just, I don't know.
Like I looked at him up versus a lot of other guys and I felt like, I felt like I liked
a lot of these other players more.
So some of the names ahead of him, DJ Moore, Ladd McConkie, Devante Adams, Zemecki Buka,
Tedaroa McMillan.
Those are the five or however many names I've read out names directly ahead of him in
consensus.
Yeah.
I just, I mean, the volume has not been there.
And I'm not saying he should be like 10 spots higher.
I'm just saying, I look at that and I think about the player he is again, he was rehabbing
an injury too.
So you think maybe he kind of gets more back into shape, right?
Coming into the season.
We're, I mean, he was in jail this off season, right?
Like it was a very kind of weird off season for him.
And, and I just think he will get more of a role as the season goes on.
And again, Mahomes looking really good again, really moves the needle for me in terms of,
I didn't, I don't have a lot of rice this season.
Like I wasn't that interested in him.
And I think that was, I don't know.
It was a mistake and it hasn't looked like a mistake yet, but I'm projecting it to be
a mistake later on this season.
All right.
You have another, you know, I would say wide receiver to buy really it's kind of multiple
pass catchers to buy here.
It's just a more of an overarching approach to week three and trades.
And I just think this is a good opportunity to buy low on bears pass catchers because
all the bears pass catchers we care about are doing nothing through the first two weeks
of the NFL season.
Colson Loveland in particular has been the guy that has stood out.
For all the wrong reasons this year.
I mean, when Greg Dulcich is out producing you, you know, that there's a big issue here
with Colson Loveland.
So I don't need to dive into the box scores that are basically non-existent for Colson
Loveland.
It is worth noting that his role did reduce a little bit last week compared to week one,
where basically he was the leader and routes run for the Chicago bears this past week.
It was still a high number, 26 routes run, or excuse me, 28 routes run 86% snaps there,
72% route participation.
Colson Loveland is still a buy low for me.
Roman Dunzay, Luther Burden, Burden I wasn't particularly high on entering draft season,
but now we're in a situation where Caleb Williams is going to miss some time.
We don't know how long Tyson Baygent is going to come in to be the starting quarter of the
Chicago bears.
They're playing the Philadelphia Eagles at home this week.
It's a tough matchup for this entire offense.
And the fact that this Ben Johnson offense just looks so amazing in week one and they
scored 59 points week two, they score a few points.
It's a real goal in rainy conditions against a Brian Flores defense.
I just don't want to take anything away from any time a team plays Brian Flores because
when a team is blitzing you at 80% of your dropbacks, that is going to have a completely
different offensive output than any other team you face in the NFL.
So yes, the next time the bears play the Vikings, we can readjust and expect less from the offense.
But moving forward, I still think that this bears team based on how bad their defense
is going to still play in a ton.
Of shootouts.
Eagles is obviously tough at home, but then you have the jets, the Packers, the Falcons,
right?
There's going to be plenty of opportunities.
Again, they haven't even played the lines yet.
What, what are those totals?
Are those going to be game worm when it's going to be the bears versus the lions?
Those games are going to be absolutely ludicrous in terms of the point scored.
So I think right now with the bear stock kind of at an all time low, anyone that drafted
bears, a dunes, a burden, love, like you're all, you're annoyed.
You're pissed because these guys haven't done anything.
For me.
So I think that with, especially with Beijing coming in as the quarterback, who some people
have written, talked about how agent may operate the system better than Caleb Williams, just
in terms of like a more traditional drop back passer where Caleb Williams tries to create
a little bit more off structure.
If Ben Johnson wants his Jared Goff of the offense, maybe it is Beijing a little bit
more than Caleb Williams.
So I don't think that this office is going to like fall off a cliff.
And anytime we talk about when quarterbacks go down and you can buy the talent.
The pass catchers.
I still believe in Loveland is elite.
I know it has not been there, but I still think he's an elite talent.
A dunes a and burden.
I'm not as sold on as, as talent and profiles, but still, man, I just think the upside is
so high and they're, they're so cheap because people are just so sick of them.
So those are going to be my buys buying the bears pass catchers.
Do you know when they play the lions?
Was it week 16 week 18?
It the second it's one of his week 12.
The other one is week 17 fantasy championship week.
You're getting.
You're getting.
Bears lions.
Is that the one in the dome?
No, that at Detroit is week 12.
So it's in Chicago.
So that's destined to be 35 mile per hour gusts.
It's so yeah.
Torrential downpour and the lions can't play outside apparently.
Yeah.
No.
Yeah.
I think this is smart.
I don't know how much I want to be paying up for any of the bears.
I mean, you shouldn't hopefully have to, which is kind of the point of this.
I'm interested in getting them onto my team though.
I do agree with you in that sense.
And you know, like I don't want to take anything away from a very weather
affected game against a Brian Flores defense like that to like, like I'm not
going to react to week two and your quarterback went down later in the game.
Like, like I just, I'm not going to react to anything in terms of the bears
pass catchers from week two.
Now, Caleb was out like for the season or something like that.
Maybe I would feel a little differently, but the fact that he's not, I, to me,
that's just.
I think it would be very overreact
to say like oh luther burton three for 32 and week two he's getting worse like you know or
colson loveland like his his breakout this season so far is one catch for three yard like you know
this is not who cares it's brian flores in the rain like that's i'm not that interested in in
reacting to that and it's a it's a much more enjoyable schedule in the back half of the season
too by the way just because you quickly mentioned philly i was going to say i actually think uh
davante smith is also guys considering his throwing out as a buy high i'm just a very big
believer in the opportunity here and i was just thinking about it when he said philly so i want
to throw out that i considered him although it is funny his weeks his fantasy playoffs is seattle
houston at san francisco so uh maybe looking ahead to that tougher on those those matchups but i just
wanted to mention him because we hadn't really talked about him today he's coming off a great
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have a couple of these i made a mistake and put in the show sheets together this week erickson so
we only have one wide receiver to sell it'll be a little bit more even
future episodes that's a my bad i have brought the wide receiver to sell that we're talking about
this week and it's george pickens and this is an interesting one he's still ranked quite
aggressively in rest of season consensus rankings he's wide receiver eight dallas of course you know
has cd labs so that means there are two receivers inside the top eight and the rest of season
rankings there um i actually forget where did pickens adp end up it wasn't as high as eight
right it was like it was more like that 10 ish range or was it yeah that's i meant to look that
up and i forgot at any rate
he's wide receiver eight rest of season here in the consensus rankings and i don't think he is
going to live up to that i was very hesitant to invest too heavily in george pickens this off
season because i felt like cd lamb with the high ankle sprain last year was not in a position to
be his usual dominant clear stud self and pickens is a very talented player who was more than
capable of taking advantage of that opportunity but if lamb was back healthy i really felt like
he was going to be the wide receiver one again and he has been awesome it's only two weeks i'm not
saying that every single game this season will be the cd lamb game and there will be no george
pickens games i think there will be some in there and part of me didn't want to pick pickens here
because part of me wanted to take sort of the approach you usually do erickson and say let's
wait for that big blow-up game and then try to sell off that but i think it's early enough in
the season and based on this ranking clearly you know folks are still very interested in the
interested in pickens that the draft capital you spent in august and just the hype around pickens
is still in the back of people's minds and i think you can take advantage of that this early in the
season if you wait two more weeks and he has two more weeks where he's you know way vastly
outperformed by cd lamb then i think you might start to see that the price that you can get for
him go down right now i still think you can get people to buy into the talent i mean he only had
one fewer target than cd lamb this week like you can you can say oh well like the opportunities
still there and the talent's still really good i think this will be a cd lamb season not a george
pickens season and obviously cd is not going to have 150 yards of two touchdowns every week but
you get my point and uh and i would try to sell while i still think there is still some of that
value held to pickens i don't think it's a sell at any cost right this isn't a like fire sale oh
no disastrous decision that you drafted him but i think you can get more for him than the value
he's going to give you rest of the season as the number two receiver in this offense and
if this defense does end up start playing better it hasn't yet but if this defense does get better
with some of these young additions and caleb downs and everything throughout the course of the season
then maybe you see even fewer shootouts for this team and there's even just less to go around
smaller piece of the pie the last thing i'll say here a lot of tough defenses you know on this
slate like we don't know quite yet about baltimore in week three at houston in week four at philly
and then home for philly obviously two games against them still to come san francisco's looked
good at seattle's in week three and then home for philly obviously two games against them still to come
week 13 a late buy was week 14 which i don't love having if i need to try and sneak into the
playoffs at the rams in week 15 that defense might look a lot better by them jackson a week 16 so my
point is there's a lot of tough defenses there's some easier games too it's kind of an up and down
schedule in terms of difficulty but that's also in the back of my mind erickson yeah i think that
what's hurting pickens at least so far this year has been the touchdown variance not working in
his favor right it's going to players like lamb who was a last year he was the guy that was left
out of the touchdown party right he didn't score a lot of touchdowns in 2025 obviously missed time
with the injury jake ferguson has a role in the red zone that's really what he is a touchdown or
bus type of tight end as i will get to as well when i'm talking about dallas cowboys to potentially
sell but you're not happy with pickens if after two weeks against the giants and commanders
wide receiver 66 wide receiver 41 like that's definitely not what you drafted george pickens
at the end of round two to get when he has really good mashups and even upcoming like ravens
and texans like those are two tougher matchups uh defensively that the dallas cowboys are going
to have to take on so i agree with you and i think too you're looking at from a market perspective
where george pickens wide receiver eight like that's why i am trying to sell this player
because i think you can get a lot for his return i would say that he is a particularly tough player
to rank in this range because all the guys around him have are like injured or like not injured or
small ones pickens flowers like those are some guys that are right around him at least in my
rankings and it's a matter of okay it can i justify trading pickens for flowers when i don't know when
flowers is coming back even though a healthy flowers i like more than pickens like i would
a scenario okay yeah so yes and i was somebody who was low on flowers this summer but i i would
i saw enough in that first half that once he's back healthy i i he was so impressive i would
just talked about is wide receiver 12 in rest of season rankings i would trade pickens for smith
straight up i think in a heartbeat right now and i think that's doable yeah i think that's probably
the move to make honestly is to trade pickens for i'm going to update my rankings now because
especially with the dallas goddard injury where he's going to be out for a month i mean zach
hurts is out there davante smith is good yeah i mean maybe maybe maybe davante smith screwed but
i don't think i think davante smith is going to continue to be a wide receiver one he always
steps up when he's given opportunities and that was so apparent while he was out there
what was the difference between week one and week two dallas god basically didn't play in week two
because he was injured and davante smith had a monster game because he's good so i i think that's
a really sharp move so you pointed out the injured guys right after pickens zay flowers
malik neighbors nico collins the next three guys in consensus rankings are davante smith
drake london parker washington i think i would trade pickens for all of those like london like
we know we're getting michael penix back this week so i think that that ranking is going to
look low now again he's terrible without penix but i think he's going to look very good
with penix back parker washington we've talked about has just been awesome and you have ranked
as like wide receiver eight rest of season you basically flip him in pickens or something like
that and davante smith we just mentioned so like i would i would take any of those three over pickens
rest of season and you're right it's not that i want to bury pickens it's that this market i think
is just way too he was wide receiver 10 in real time uh adp at the end of draft season i just
looked it up and um you know some of the guys who have dropped and the reason he's moved up is like
stuff he's not anymore, Jake London's dropped down.
So stuff like that, obviously.
Um, but yeah, I just look at this and I go, he was wide receiver 10.
Now he's wide receiver eight.
He's done nothing to prove that that is the smart decision so far this year, at least
even though he was great last year.
And yeah, there's just names behind him I'd rather have.
So I think he's a good sell, um, for all the reasons that I listed.
I'm, I actually wasn't sure how you were going to feel about it.
So I'm glad to hear that you are in agreement with me because I thought you might say, well,
listen, this guy's way too good to be selling and you know, the bounce backs coming and
their touchdown regression is coming.
I think we have pickings in the league, the tailgate league with you and me and D bro
as well.
So we need a bit of a bounce back there.
So I was, I was expecting you to not be on board with this.
I'm glad you are.
Well, I think that the way that you approach it was really smart where you're not necessarily
bearing pickings the player, but you're looking at a potential market inefficiency with pickings.
And if he's valued at this and I can get all of these other guys that I just like a little
bit more than pickings because they're clear cut number one, wide receivers on their team,
a little bit less of a target ambiguity pickings.
Obviously we know has a super high ceiling, right?
If CDLM goes out.
And stubs his toe.
Well, that's going to look really bad because pickings is going to go nuclear if CDLM misses
time.
But if that's not the case and it's still more of a bit of a muddled receiver room and
pickings is not necessarily capitalizing on all those 50, 50 balls like it was last year.
Yeah.
There's a scenario where some of these other guys outproduce him.
So I think that that's a good call because it's about the strong return.
And remember with a lot of these trades too, it's impossible to get a player where, okay,
I'm going to trade a player at his very peak.
And then once I get rid of him, he's going to do absolutely nothing for the rest of
the season.
Like that is just really, really hard to do.
Like pickings is going to have games.
Like he's going to have some blow up games, going to go for a hundred yards, going to
score touchdowns, but is it going to be as consistent as maybe some of these other guys
or as frequent?
Maybe not.
And that's the bet that you're willing to make.
So I, yeah, I think it's a good, smart move.
I can't quite get to enough conviction to say I would trade him straight up for Garrett
Wilson, despite Garrett Wilson being a buy.
But I wonder if you could do something like pickings for Garrett Wilson, plus like Kyle
or something like that as just like a, get another piece with it.
And.
Take a couple of swings.
So that's another thing I would look into with him as well.
Never wonder if you are winning a trade.
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settings and league showing both the short and long-term impact.
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All right, Eric said, you've got a tight end to sell for us this week.
It's going to be sticking with the dollar.
Dallas Cowboys, uh, Jake Ferguson tight end for the Dallas Cowboys.
Like we kind of alluded to talking about George Pickens.
He's going to have some bounce back weeks at some point.
He's still going to be a big part of this passing game.
And what does that mean for Jake Ferguson is not a lot of volume.
So last week, Jake Ferguson really made his hay because he scored two touchdowns, but
he was still buried in terms of the target share in this offense, four targets, four
catches for four to three yards.
He ran a route on just 64%.
Of the Dallas Cowboys drop backs.
This is an immediate sell for me through two games.
Jake Ferguson ranks 18th and route participation 20th snap rate and 27th in target share among
all tight ends.
He is a 9.2% target share.
I think that he is very touchdown dependent, which look, when you play in the Cowboys offense,
there's always a chance that you could score a touchdown.
But if the touchdown variance does go back in favor of George Pickens, Jake Ferguson,
if he doesn't catch these touchdowns four for 43, you're like, oh, I'm going to have to
do it again.
Like this is the Mark Andrews stat line.
Like, what are we doing here?
So I don't like Jake Ferguson as a Titan that you can bet on long-term for the rest of the
season, especially because it's not just pickings and lamb that are factoring into his offense.
Also Ryan and floor.
And I like, he has a bigger role in this offense standalone, even alongside a healthy Piggins
and CD lamb for, and I had six targets more than Jake Ferguson did last week, five cats
for 23 yards.
So I think that Ferguson scares me and I would be willing to sell high just based on the
touchdowns.
If you just look historically, and this is a prop bet that I bet every single time is
Jake Ferguson under his receptions prop.
He averages under three and a half catches when lamb Pickens and floor and I are all
in the lineup at the same time and healthy.
So for me, he is a easy sell, especially with upcoming matchups against Baltimore Ravens.
He's drawn coverage from Kyle Hamilton.
No, thanks.
Get out of here.
So going to trade, uh, want to sell high and Jake Ferguson.
The literal definition of a sell high tight end.
Like, like.
That does not be a more obvious guy.
He has six catches a season.
A third of them have gone for touchdowns to do it as under 50 yards total through two
games.
Um, it's actually kind of hilarious.
So if you look at the game logs on the player cards on fantasy pros.com for any player,
if a player has, um, a really down performance in any given category, it's sort of highlighted
red.
And if it's, they have a really good performance in a category, it's highlighted green and
you don't often see them sort of flipped.
But.
Yeah.
I think that's a good thing.
That's a good thing.
Yeah.
Yeah.
game, Bo Nix, I think they kind of look a little shaky for the most part, but he would be my sell
just because I don't want to get rid of Parker Washington and Drake London. You can definitely
get on the cheap. So I will. I think Waddle is actually a kind of a smart sell because I think
there's going to be a lot of big games and a lot of duds. Like we've seen this with Sean Payton
before. Like, like I, I think the truth is going to be somewhere in the middle of his week one and
his week two, but I think like kind of the easy sell of these three, I actually, I'm going to,
I'm going to switch the other two from what you said. I would rather, I almost wish I had drafted
Drake London and was holding and can now like just enjoy what's to come, but maybe not buy him
because Penix has this really long injury history. So I'm a little more nervous about what if he
gets hurt again and it falls off. I'm very willing to buy high, the highest on Parker Washington.
Like, like obvious, I have him a lot of places. So like, I, you know, like you, it would be more
of a hold in terms of my real leagues, but like, I will, I will pay through the moon to go get
him.
I just could not be more of a full believer. And again, that, that wide receiver 14 ranking is too
low for his rest of season ranking. It might be, and he should be in wide receiver one unequivocally.
So I would be willing to buy high at him. I have him wide receiver eight. I mentioned it on the
last show. So the guys I have ahead of him is Chase St. Brown, JSN, Puka, Jefferson, Lamb, Olave.
I was going to, I was waiting for Olave. That was the one where I was going to say,
I think I'd rather have Olave than him. I don't know if you were going to have him ahead or not.
To be fully transparent, I have him one spot ahead of London. So if I had London and I could
flip him for Parker Washington, I would do that.
Do that to the points that you made about just the long-term risk of Michael Penix Jr. being
healthy for the rest of the season. And if, dare I say, we have to go back to the, to a Cooper Rush,
gross, gross, grossness of the Falcons.
Yeah. Another wide receiver trio here, Jalen Coker, Matthew Golden, Terry McLaurin. We talked
about some of these guys earlier on the episode as well, but buy, sell, or hold Jalen Coker,
Matthew Golden, Terry McLaurin. I think I would probably sell Jalen
Coker after two really strong games. I think that the Panthers offense might struggle a little bit
more on the road against Cleveland, two stronger perimeter cornerbacks. And he's obviously been
the most hyped up guy, Matthew Golden. I want to hold because there is no Jaden Reed
and he and Christian Gonzalez, excuse me, Christian Watson have really been
just gobbling up a lot of the targets in the Packers passing attack. Terry is tougher. I think
it's probably just a hold because they're playing the Seahawks this week and his stock is just going
to go down. So I don't want to buy him now, but I do recognize that he is going to probably finish
much higher than what he has done the first two weeks of the season. So I'm pretty sure I just
listed off two holds worm. If, uh, if my memory serves me correct, do you have any reservations
with Golden with Tucker craft coming back and getting healthier every single week?
That's something that I was just thinking about as I was going through these names here and
maybe flip-flopping Golden and Coker. I definitely just want to hold McLaurin just because he's his
stock is, I don't know. This one's tough for him. Help me out here. Throw me a bone.
Uh, you know, the question on Golden is interesting. I think maybe I would be more
worried about craft if, you know, not for the Jaden Reed injury. Like there's only so many
players that they're going to be throwing to in this offense going forward. And I still really
like Jordan Love. Like,
the quarterback obviously. And Golden, you know, has the first round draft capital that if he does
kind of put it together this season, um, he was just so bad last year that I think people
totally wrote him off. It used to be that receivers didn't break out to like year three.
I'm not saying he's going to have this huge, massive breakout season in year two or anything
like that, but just because he was a total non-factor in year one, doesn't mean he can't
take a step forward and show that first round, you know, pedigree here in, in, uh, year,
two. So I'm not that worried about craft again, because I think it's craft Watson and Golden.
And that's like the three, if there was a fourth name in there or more like the Packers have had
in other years, then I'd be more nervous about it. So I, I am interested in Golden. Um, I,
I agree. This is a tough, I mean, that's why I picked these names is because I kind of struggle
with, with these three. So I'm, I'm glad to hear that you're struggling with them as well. I think,
I think if it were,
if it were me, I would probably rather, I think I would hold Coker. Actually. I think I would hold
Coker. It's hard, dude. I think I would sell Terry, but it's not that I want to sell him. It's
that he's ranked highest of these three in the consensus. And he's done the least, but he has
the name brand. And so maybe you can still get,
the most for him, but then the quarterback stuff, I mean, uh, uh, Ian Rappaport, by the way,
while we were taping, this was saying on the Pat McAfee show that, you know, they're hoping
Jaden can avoid the IR, like he'll miss time, but maybe even avoid missing that much time.
So maybe that actually means that Terry should be the buy. Um, I don't know. It's really tough.
I actually struggled to kind of sort through, through this one. I don't want to sell Jalen
Coker cause I believe in him as a player. Um, I don't really want to sell any of these guys.
I also don't, the true answer is I want to
hold all three. I don't really want to buy or sell any of them. I want to be holding all three
of these guys. I guess I'm like thinking about who I want on my team for the rest of the season. No,
no other questions asks, right? Well, like I said, this isn't a ranking, but, but how would
you rank them? Cause maybe that'll help kind of sort through it. I have ranked Terry Coker down
or downs. That's what I want. I just want Josh to just add him to this conversation. It's
interesting though, because if you had replaced McLaurin with digs, I would have been like easy
sell digs. Sure.
That would have been really easy. Why do I want to make it easy on you? Yeah. Well, that's,
that's why you're putting the show sheet together. Cause you make it tough on the analysts here.
So I haven't ranked McLaurin Coker golden. But when I say that, when I look at how closely
ranked they are, I'm kind of actually surprised how down McLaurin is even when I'm trying
to capture the fact that he actually has better splits with Marcus Mariota. It's not like
he falls off a cliff, but that's also the context of him having no target competition
last year.
I mean, I don't know if he's the top 24 guy when it's all said and done, but if you're
chasing like upside ceiling, I mean, Coker and team Mac are just dominating all the targets
in the Panthers offense. Like it is like not even close of one a one B it meets one a one
a essentially between I think Coker.
I think it's important to remember too, with Carolina that they've gotten the bears and
then the Falcons who they always play really well against to start the season. So this,
this offense could be coming down a bit. I think the correct, I might even say, I agree
with the correct answer here is to sell Coker to buy Terry and to hold golden. I think if
we're trying to be most objective, that's like, it's probably smart to sell a guy like
Coker who has had two really good games, but it gets very easy opponents and is probably
long-term the number two in the offense.
I think it's smart to be looking to buy a guy like Terry McLaurin. If, Hey, maybe Jane's
not out that long, big body of work. We know he's a good player at the very least. And
he's probably smart to hold a guy like golden rather than go buy him, you know, given what
he looked like last year and the Tucker craft of it all, or to sell him given that he has
the pedigree going up.
So I think the correct answer is sell Coker by Terry holds Matthew golden, but I don't
know if emotionally, like I don't want to be selling Coker. So that kind of makes it
hard to do all the others.
I think I'm pivoting and maybe I'm just gonna sell Terry and just be like, you know what?
Not dealing with this. Older receiver.
Hasn't been his number one, the last two games, his quarterback is hurt. And the fact that
I lay all that out and his value is higher than those two other players. Maybe you're
just getting ahead of the curve here. We're skating where the puck is going to be. And
that's Terry behind these two guys at the end of the season. And what we're talking
about, it's like, man, I wish I had just kept Coker and not traded him to get term. Cause
again, like this means like, so you're gonna trade Coker to get TMC like McLaurin. Do you
wanna do that? Not really.
I, I don't know. So yeah, I think I gotta make some adjustments here, especially with
Terry facing Seattle this week. I mean, he's not going up after this week. So I, I think
I'd rather have Coker. I'd rather have golden. So I think Terry by default, especially based
on his market value, you can get these types of guys for him. So, um, that's the approach
I'm gonna do.
Yeah. We've got one more trio here. Uh, tight ends, Isaiah, likely Travis, Kelsey, Juwan,
Johnson.
Um, I'm gonna hold on to Juwan Johnson. It's just solid, solid producer has good chemistry
with Tyler shock and the saints office is going to continue to open up, especially with
an easier schedule upcoming. So I'll keep Juwan likely spotting. My buy still was the
target leader. Despite the fact that Jackson dart went down on Monday night football, I
expect him to still be involved heavily.
We'll see how things kind of shake out with the quarterback play. But I think that just
creates a buying opportunity for a tight end. And then Kelsey would probably be my
sell high just because he's looked so good.
Maybe I'm just capitulating because I didn't draft any of Travis Kelsey and he looks like
a guy that I think they said this on the athletic podcast, but he looks like a guy that was
getting ready for a wedding.
That's exactly what he looks like now, getting ready for his wedding.
He's in his wedding shape, which is why he looks so good out there.
So I just think you can probably get the most for Kelsey, unless you can get more for likely,
which I also wouldn't necessarily disagree with.
But based on the quarterback injury, I would assume that people are not trying to get likely.
I'd be interested in buying likely based on the quarterback injury and just believing
in the talent and what we saw in week one.
And I'm probably holding Johnson and selling Kelsey.
Okay, so lockstep.
So that one was easy.
Yeah, sorry I made it so easy on you.
We'll go ahead and wrap things up there.
Thanks everybody for checking out our wide receiver and tight ends version of the players
to buy and sell.
Again, if you missed it, running backs and quarterbacks episode.
Should.
Already be released for you.
For Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley.
Thanks for tuning in.
We'll see you again next time.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Josh Downs is a top-tier wide receiver prospect with increased volume and opportunity in the Indianapolis Colts' offense due to injuries to Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen.
Garrett Wilson is a high-ceiling wide receiver on the Jets, set to thrive in key matchups with a strong, functional offense and favorable schedule, making him a smart buy despite being labeled a floor player.
Chicago Bears pass catchers Colson Loveland, Roman Dunzay, and Luther Burden are identified as buy-low opportunities due to poor early-season production and a lack of quarterback consistency.
George Pickens is recommended for sale due to market overvaluation and inconsistent performance, with stronger alternatives like Davante Smith and Parker Washington offering better upside and stability.
Jake Ferguson is an easy sell as a tight end due to low target share, touchdown dependence, and poor performance in the Cowboys' offense, especially with increased competition from Pickens and CD Lamb.
Terry McLaurin is held as a potential buy with upside, while Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden are viewed as holds due to inconsistent production and quarterback injury risks.
The analysis emphasizes trading on market inefficiencies, not just player performance, to capture value in fantasy football.
The episode highlights dynamic scheduling, player injuries, and quarterback changes as key factors affecting fantasy value across multiple teams.
Summary:
The Fantasy Pros Football Podcast features a detailed analysis of players to buy and sell in Week 3, focusing on wide receivers and tight ends. Josh Downs is highlighted as a top-tier buy due to a larger role in the Colts' offense after injuries to Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen, with strong production and volume increases in Week 2. Garrett Wilson is also recommended as a high-ceiling buy on the Jets, leveraging a favorable schedule and improved quarterback play.
Chicago Bears pass catchers like Colson Loveland, Roman Dunzay, and Luther Burden are seen as undervalued buys due to poor early performance. George Pickens is advised for sale, as market sentiment remains high despite underwhelming stats, with better alternatives like Davante Smith and Parker Washington offering stronger upside. Jake Ferguson is marked as a low-value tight end to sell due to minimal targets and dependence on touchdowns.
Terry McLaurin is held as a potential buy, while Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden are considered holds due to injury risks and inconsistent production. The analysis underscores the importance of reading matchups, quarterback health, and schedule dynamics to identify value. A recurring theme is the use of market inefficiencies to make smarter trades, even when players have talent but lack recent production.
The episode concludes with a reminder that trades are highly contextual and should be evaluated based on individual team dynamics and roster needs.
FAQs
Josh Downs is now in a full-time role with the Indianapolis Colts after Alec Pierce's injury and Keenan Allen's poor performance. He's had high target volume and route participation, showing consistent production. With a weak defense and a favorable schedule, he's a top-tier buy, especially in half-PPR leagues.
Garrett Wilson is a high-upside buy despite being priced as a floor player. The Jets have a strong schedule, including matchups against tough defenses, and Wilson is the clear number one receiver with a reliable quarterback and improved offensive chemistry. He's a ceiling play disguised as a floor play.
Yes, consider selling George Pickens early due to market inefficiency. While he has talent, he hasn't lived up to his ranking and is overshadowed by CD Lamb and other high-impact receivers. With upcoming tough matchups and a clear market shift, he can be traded for better, more consistent players like Davante Smith or Parker Washington.
No, Jake Ferguson is not a long-term value tight end. He has minimal targets and is heavily dependent on touchdowns, which are inconsistent. With George Pickens and other receivers in the lineup, he's a poor long-term bet and should be sold high to avoid future disappointment.
Consider selling Jalen Coker after two strong games. The Panthers' offense may struggle on the road, and Coker is currently overvalued. With better matchups and emerging opportunities, it's often better to sell high and reposition for more consistent, high-impact players.
Terry McLaurin is a solid hold, not a buy. He's currently ranked low in the rest of season rankings despite having good splits. While he may improve over time, his lack of target volume and current performance make him a risky buy. Better to hold or trade for a more consistent player.
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