Fantasy Football Trade Market: 5 Moves to Make Before Week 5 (Ep. 2242)

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Let's get up, got it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into fantasy prose. I'm Ryan Wormley joined by Tara Roberts. As I am every Monday here, we are looking ahead already to week five with five moves to make ahead of the week here. It can be buys, it can be sells, it can be shops, it can be ads. We've got a mix of everything for us here today. Tara, how are you doing? How are you feeling about the season? Four weeks in, we're a month into the season. Four weeks in, kind of scary, though. It's not that bad. It's just the injuries have been outrageous. The second you believe in something, like I got pumped up for Marcus Mariotta against the Indianapolis defense. And then that was, that was over real quick. So yes, it's just been like a wild year in terms of these injuries coming at us. But outside of that, everything's okay. Just don't talk about college football with me 'cause my tigers continue to wear us, but that's okay. At least I'm not betting on them, or anything. I'm a Maryland fan, okay? A week and a half ago, my team lost 54 to three, and they still haven't fired our coach. So I don't want to hear anything about college football. Yeah, you know, it's, it's funny like we were doing the tailgate today and I was kind of messaging the guys. I was like, you know, there's fewer injuries than we had the last couple of weeks. Still, the first three are Lamar, Jackson, Jamar, Chase, Safequam, Barkley. Just like three of the biggest names in fact, it's just like, you can't escape it. It's been like the absolute night of the season. Reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasyproz.com/rankings. You can also navigate to our rest of season rankings there as well. They get updated throughout the week. So I'll be looking at when I reference the rest of season ranking on the show today, just the ones that have been updated as of this morning. So it is up to date as we can have for you here. Let's dive right in. Tara looks like you're starting to stop with the buy. I am. We are a buy happy mood this week 'cause people, people need players, right? Nobody is saying, yeah, I want to sell off all my players. No, they're hoarding them. So we're buying, trying to snatch up ones that we can get at lower value. And Matthew Golden is one of those guys for me. I think the perception of the Packers is definitely still very low. Despite their little victory, barely just little victory over Tampa Bay, it's still low enough to wear. Golden is excellent value for the upside that he has. Was genuinely an underwhelming performance and week four from join the law. Although technically speaking, it was his most efficient ironically, but Golden continues to shine. And now after this week, he is now out targeting Christian Watson. He scored a minimum of 9.8 fantasy points in PPR in every game he's played in this season. And that specific performance of the 9.8 fantasy points was in week two against the Jets. That was the weather-affected game. The Packers upcoming schedule in general leans a little bit more pass-friendly and the games that aren't specifically pass-friendly. Are games where they play teams where they should be chasing points. That's the formula chasing points is the key because the Packers defense is truly struggling. They got more injuries and it just continues to pile up. It guarantees a certain level of volume meaning that the vast majority of during the loves games will have a minimum of 30 attempts. They no longer have, unfortunately, Jena Reed. The target funnel is just three deep specifically with Watson, Golden, and Tucker Kraft, who finally came on, thank God for that one. So even with the run-game struggles and the offensive line struggles, they're still locked in volume that is making Golden constantly in the picture at Widersiever 2. - One of the only downsides of Matthew Golden is that his second matchup against the Lions is in week 18. So we won't get that as part of the fantasy season, the Primo defensive matchup there. Yeah, Golden has so impressed me this season, just generally speaking. Obviously coming off his worst performance, at least in terms of yardage, he did have the touchdown. - Where should he be ranked restses season two? In the updated restses season rankings, he's Widersiever 26, he's sandwiched by guys like Michael Wilson and Jameson Williams. Does that feel right to you? Is that too high to low? What do you think? - I think it's just right, maybe a little bit conservative. How, as we continue to have these guys that are dealing with injuries like Lad McConkey, DJ Moore, who, you know, if all things were good and healthy and no issues, you know, he would be prioritizing them, but they have their own issues that they're working through. So yeah, I think it's a very appropriate level. I think he's a little bit undervalued, so I think that leans towards going out and making the buy. - If you had those guys like, let's say DJ Moore or Lad McConkey and you were one in three or oh and four after this week, you're like, I need to win now, I can't wait. I'll be figuring out this injury stuff. Would you trade them straight up for Golden 'cause they are ranked ahead of him in consensus, but not by much. - I would for Lad McConkey. I can't make that push right now for DJ Moore, just because at least he has the quarterback with zero issues in the right environment to have those boom games, so just a good, high ceiling makes it so, okay, I can hold and pause on that and see what we're working with in terms of this injury, but the game, the team situation for the chargers makes it, so yeah, I would make that flip on McConkey. - Speaking of the chargers, the next player you wanna talk about? - Yeah, we're gonna buy low on a Maurean Hand, and I know some people might feel a certain type of way about this, but I mean, let's talk it through, right? It's funny because we had a question on the Sunday morning show with me and Chris Walsh, and someone asked who is a by-law running back, and we kind of responded like I mean, there's not really a ton of options to by-law right now, just because the market is so destitute, and the majority of the by-law guys are in bad situations, like what are you gonna do by-law on, you know, speaking of the packers, are we gonna by-law on a Martian Lloyd or Caleb Johnson? No, you just don't wanna dip into that, but if you have to target one that is a by-law, it is a Maurean Hampton. As you know, right, and I do a ton of start-sit Q&A every single week on a wide variety of social channels for you guys, and so when I say that people are looking to sell certain players, I'm not pulling it out of thin air. There are, you know, certain names that just get repeated over and over and over again, that shows a really clear pattern in terms of how the general market of your typical leagues are operating, right? There are a lot of sharp legs where people would say, you know, this is not gonna happen, but there's a lot of leagues where you might be able to get him at a very, very reasonable price, and that's the key. We're going reasonable price here. We're buying extremely low because of the panic and the fear that everyone has with this clearly split backfield. And I'm not saying that it's going to change into all of a sudden, Maurean Hampton thriving and being the clear three down back and Keaton Mitchell just goes away and there's no commodity buy down, but there's a certain level of baked-in volume that Maurean Hampton gets to where you can feel comfortable ranking him on a weekly basis at a minimum of a low-end RB2 because he's getting volume. He is the lead back. Unfortunately, the whole check-down situation is a bus, but he still has the opportunity for touchdowns as well. He's not being completely sniped in the red zone. So yeah, it's not the greatest situation in the world, but he can still provide you a good solid double-digit fantasy points. The problem is is that it's workable volume, but where you drafted him at, it's not workable volume. You're just losing significantly on a weekly basis, and that fantasy manager just might not want to deal with it. His value is so low right now, and people won out, and they can't afford to drop him because you know that you can't just drop an RB1 no matter how destitute the situation is. So I think it's worth trying to buy low, and the biggest factor why it's worth it is again, a certain level of job security. Love Keaton Mitchell, the stealing touches, absolutely, but he physically can't steal Maurean Hampton's entire job. He's a higher-in version of Jonathan Brooks, and all the promise in the world, right? But none of the physical guarantee, unfortunately. He's never had over 60 attempts in a single season. Hopefully he can thrive this season and push forward, but he's never played a fully healthy season. And he's never had a game with more than 11 carries in a single game. So he's a great complement to Maurean Hampton, but not a guy that can fully take his job. So Hampton has a certain level of guarantee to his workload, where if you're really struggling, and the person in your league is just so frustrated with the Maurean Hampton and just wants to move on and upgrade in another position, maybe they've gotten to the point where they're starting someone else that they drafted as an RB3, and they just feel more comfortable going that direction and venturing Hampton. Maybe Hampton can serve a better purpose on your team and your starting lineup as a low end RB2. - Do you think we're going to see, at some point this season, the Chargers offense, to a lesson, not live up to the incredible hype that there was before the season, but look like a good offense at some point. Will they have that breakout game where it's like, oh boy, here we go, strap in. Or do you think, I mean, we're only four weeks in. It gets late early in the NFL, but it is still early. Do you think that this is still just figuring it out, or is it fundamentally like we are not going to see anything remotely close to that this year? You know, we were comparing him on the recap show to a Drake May where there's a certain level of promise like, okay, he's got the rushing upside. The coaching, we're not having, you know, this is not a new coaching staff, a new system or anything. He's just acclimating to a lot tougher games than he saw last season. And what we saw last week, he's finally got into, this past week and week four, we finally got into a pass-friendly matchup where he could drive his wide receiver one as of right now came through. So yeah, there was better horizons and you could logically say like, okay, at some point we were going to see a better situation for him, but with the schedule that the chargers have, you can try and pinpoint it and look through and it's like, man, I don't know. I mean, you're skipping ahead and saying, okay, well, somewhere on down the line, they're going to play the Jets, no offense to the Jets and Jets fans, love you, but that will eventually be the easiest matchup they'll be able to get to, it's just tough to imagine that it's going to significantly turn around. Now, they remain balanced, they remain committed to the run, they're not completely abandoning it, they're doing strange things in terms of this commitment to a three-man committee. But I would say that the run game and particularly a Marine Hampton, because he hasn't looked awful and that's another thing. It's not as if he's out there looking like complete trash. Perhaps if Justin Herbert can just get right mentally and the interceptions come down because all those were his fault last week. And maybe the wide receivers don't have as many drops, but even then, so it's just such a rough schedule. You've got another buy for a seer player we talked about last week, too. Yeah, it's a happier buy. It is Parker Washington. I wanted to run this one back because sometimes when you're looking at it as a fantasy manager, you say, no one's going to sell Parker Washington, they're holding on to him. He knows his value. Everybody doesn't. Again, that goes back to, as I'm going through and I'm getting a lot of trade questions from people, Parker Washington is an extremely common name that was coming up a lot heading into this week, this past week, week four. He's a very viable asset. A lot of fantasy managers were asking questions saying, hey, when are the points going to come down for Parker Washington? Is this all going to drop? They were looking at those first games as the ceiling games, the outlier games. Not as, okay, hey, there's better games on the horizon because these are difficult matchups. The tags, we know they had a very slated schedule to begin the season. Then we get into the back half of the season out of after they're buy week and things open up significantly and we get to those easier matchups where everyone in that offense is really going to benefit. But it's tough to get there if people were extremely concerned about the fact that at some point, the wool is going to be pulled over and the rug or the rug is going to be pulled in. We're going to be saying this dip in production from Parker Washington. That's what we got this week. This is actually the perfect time to get in there for those people who were a little bit concerned. Now, you've got this little opening opportunity to really seal the deal because they were ready to ship them off and thinking that they were selling high and now they're panicking, thinking they're going to have to sell low before it drops even further. He's a very viable asset right now. If someone is a Parker Washington truth or there's nothing you can do about that, but sentiment on guys that around people that are not really 100% truth or yeah, they're a little bit panicked here. Again, from Trevor Lawrence, we've seen him in not a very high volume situation, operating with lower volume, higher efficiency in these matchups that are a little bit more difficult. They were very balanced this week. They leaned aggressively on Britain Strange. It seems like maybe the Bengals might be on the friendlier end of the tight end fantasy points spectrum. Maybe Liam Cohen saw something that could be exploited and we sent those targets hyper-targeting to Britain Strange in order to succeed in this matchup. But prior to this week, Washington had a minimum of 13 fantasy points in PPR with Trevor Lawrence maxing out at 29 attempts in a game. The Jack's Face Philadelphia next week, then they got Houston, the by-way, so right now is literally the perfect time to get in there and people thinking like, "Hey, this is it. We need to get out right now." I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast, the True Crime Comedy Podcast, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris and Nicole Byers. Ooh, I scammed them. What? You're a generational yapper. Like me. And the Scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. 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Listen to whatever it takes with Carly Lloyd and Jenny Taft on the I Heart Radio app Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. I think it's a great call. Obviously, I really liked this call a week ago, maybe even more affordable to all your points here this week, you know, just eight targets the last two weeks, like that's something I'd highlight definitely if you're, you know, looking to maybe sort of knock him down a bit in trying to acquire him cheaper, like, oh, if there's some concern there, just four catches on eight targets, you know, in the last weeks, but there's no data in my mind that he's a really good player. There's no doubt in my mind that this is a really good offense. Those two pieces, it's together. That's kind of enough for me to be really interested in going and wide receiver is such a volatile position. There's like five years, a year that aren't up and down. It is okay for a receiver to have a volatile week and have a bad down week here and there, unless you're like JSN or, you know, 2021 Cooper Cup, like it is going to happen. So I definitely would recommend trying to take advantage of people over reacting to the natural roller coaster of a wide receiver season. Find out what your players are really worth with the new fantasy pros trade market values report compare player values from actual trades across thousands of fantasy leagues against fantasy pros expert consensus values quickly identify players to buy low sell high or target in your next deal with values for half PPR dynasty and your sync teams makes smarter trades using real market data at fantasy pros dot com slash markets. That's fantasy pros dot com slash markets also while I'm promoted things recommending people to go do stuff. Go follow us on Instagram and TikTok. You can find Tara doing a lot of live streams on there throughout the week as she mentioned earlier where she's answering all of those starts to trade waiver, et cetera types of questions for you. So she does that on a TikTok and Instagram for us Tara, you have a player. Yeah, shop is my friendly way of saying like we're just trying to feel it out. It's not like a must like, hey, like when I say go by Parker Washington, I'm saying go by Parker Washington. When I say to shop Bucky Irving, I'm not saying like, hey, panic. You need to just like get rid of him right now. Do what's right for your team because obviously like you don't have to do this if you're not good at running back. Yeah, let's say that you're in a 10 team league. Be drafted while it's running back and you can afford to move Bucky then move him. Move him an upgrade at another position. The Bucks have not been, it's probably under selling it. They have not been successful on offense this season. And the result has been just three red zone attempts for Bucky Irving with zero attempts inside the five. It has only rushing touchdown was back in week one. And that is definitely Tampa baseball and their offensive struggles have been, I will not put any of that blame on him, obviously even before Jalen Daniels with Baker Mayfield things were very shaky. So it's not as if prior to this week we were getting a bunch of red zone attempts from someone else. So this is, this is why I'm saying we jump on it now before we get into what could be a little bit of a pattern, right? Because they're in less a problem. The offense has been so bad that we really haven't gotten to see what they want to do at the goal line because the goal line hasn't existed. And unfortunately, this is not new for Bucky Irving being iced out and inside the five and greatly reduce inside the red zone. I was very concerned about Bucky Irving this off season during draft season because while he was definitely going to be the lead back and volume was going to get there, he was going to get the bulk of the carries. My concern with him was what happens if game will takes a little bit of the receiving work. Sean Tucker runs it back at the goal line because Bucky had zero carries inside the five last season, zero. And it wasn't related to his injury. It happened before the injury. It happened after the injury when he came back and he was on a normal workload. Sean Tucker was still getting those looks at the goal line. So then we cut to this week and the Tampa Bay staff actively says, yeah, we have got to get Sean Tucker more involved. Oops. That's a little bit of a red flag. And what happens? They kept their word. They ran Sean Tucker in the red zone. He got a touchdown, Kenneth Gainwell got a receiving touchdown. And you can say that this is over reacting and that this is not going to be how it is the entire season. But that's what it was last season, unfortunately. So we might see a lot more of these games where Bucky is the lead back clearly. He's getting 15 carries. The result is 60 yards, maybe more if there's a good matchup, but no touchdowns. So if you're OK or you maybe have another running back that you have your eye on that you maybe want to upgrade to or you want to switch and upgrade in another position, now might be a good time to go ahead and make that pass on with Bucky because most people still have a very good sentiment around him. He's not somebody that people were actively trying to shop around before this week. We'll have to see how the reactions are probably going to be a lot of blame, blame put on Jalen Daniels in particular, rather than Bucky Irving and the offense in general. So I think it's still a good time to maybe get out there, shop around and see if there is any interest in him. Are you thinking more along the lines of like trying to trade him for another running back that you like better or are you thinking more like maybe go for a receiver with him and try to go cross positional with this one? I think maybe go cross positional go for receiver, maybe you look for a package deal depending on how desperate someone is at running back because the person who is going to want to buy Bucky Irving is not someone who's necessarily looking to flip a player that you would specifically want your starting lineup. They're probably dealing with significant injuries. They lost a chance. They lost Breeze Hall. They're just they're struggling. They're trying to make it work. Maybe they thought that Jalen right was going to be the one. They put them in there. They're starting lineup. There's a thousand scenarios and a ton of people who are struggling significantly to the point where they're looking back up running backs and saying, I think I have to start K-Lon Black this week. I have to start Emmett Johnson this week, you know, can I, what do you think? What do you think in terms of who I can pivot to because they don't have an actual starting traditional RB2 that they can actually put into their starting lineup? You've got one more move to make here before week five. What is it? Yeah, it's technically two, but we are going to make a move in terms of adding or buying Tyree Kill or Jordan Tyson, just depends on how deep your league is, what the roster percentage is. Tyree Kill is just under 30% rostered in Yahoo leagues. I'm sure that will be rising. I'm sure now that we've got the the news of the fact that he is probably going to be signing. Maybe we'll be signing with someone by the time you guys are watching this video. And then Jordan Tyson is still just over 51% rostered. Tyree is a real quick and easy one, not a ton of justification on that in terms of, hey, yeah, he's coming off of a major injury, right? And will he come back to 100% of where he was pre injury, you know, that's hard to imagine. But even a slightly downgraded version of Tyree Kill, a 70% of Tyree Kill is still a viable fantasy option in the right situation. And you know, from what we hear, it could be the Chiefs, right? They've lost Rishi Rice to a hamstring injury. We'll have to see how serious that is. We know that those unfortunately can get you on IR. They're typically multi week injuries. They lost poor Taiwan Thornton for the entire season. So they have an immediate need and a long term need as well. So if it's that in particular, that is a very interesting fit to where I would like to hold him. Stash and just see what happens because it's one of those you never know. Are we messing around with these low end options? You know, we talk about waivers and there's a guy like, you know, Trey Harris, Lad Maconkey's down. Are we, you know, looking for a Trey Harris and adding him? What's the true upside? You want to roll with that all season in a bad offense? Or would you weather, chance it with the potential of Tyree Kill getting back in touch with Patrick Mahomes? I think that one is very interesting and that there's Jordan Tyson. The reason why Jordan Tyson is an interesting trade target right now is because again, he's 50, around 50% roster. People are able to stash him in IR. But the Saints have stated that he still weeks away. So they have a week eight by most logical return date would probably be week nine. It might feel like it's early, but the timing works because anyone that was rostering him was prepared to hold on. And the news of there being an additional month, maybe that's that's frustrating. With all of the injuries piling up, the bio weeks and whatnot, if they need those IR spots, they might be a little bit more willing and thinking like, hey, maybe maybe I just need to move on. Maybe I just need to give up. I don't know when he's going to come back. So if you can get Jordan Tyson on the cheap, I mean, at the end of the day, it is all about Tyler Schuck and the aggressive volume that he is pushing. Obviously, we filmed this before the Monday night games, so it's possible he underwhelms. But, you know, in the first three games of the season, he's had a minimum of 22 points in the first three games each season. He is absolutely pushing aggressive volume. We know that Kellin Moore loves to run aggressive pace of play. He's thrown for a minimum of 34 attempts in every single game. This is not unusual. It's not an anomaly. And they've been doing it in a wide variety of scenarios, you know, chasing points against Detroit, competitive matchup against Baltimore, solid defensive matchup against Vegas. So we've seen it in a lot of different scenarios. The volume is real. It's going to continue. And they're not even in the easy portion of their schedule where they start to face some of those, you know, in division layups. So this is a move that you can make. If you have a winning record right now, you've got the space to stash him. You could be looking to capitalize in the back half of the season on a rookie that will be tied to an extremely high volume quarterback. I'm sorry. If you said this already while you're going through those, I was distracted by Jesse Menter giving an update on the Mars ankle injury, which I was obviously very keen on. It wasn't really a real update. It was just saying that they don't think it's going to be a crazy long absence, but they're still getting information so they don't know update yet on chances for Sunday night. I was distracted by that. Did you say do you have a preference between these two between Jordan Tyson and Tyree kill? Because I think a lot of people might have the spot to try and pick up wine, but maybe not both. Yeah. If you have a winning record and you can afford to hold, I think the safer bet is for you to go with Jordan Tyson. If you're needing somebody over the next month, then I would take that chance on Tyree kill because technically speaking, we don't know to what degree he is going to come back game ready. It's a team that is in a destitute situation right now with receivers. Maybe the team, maybe like Kansas City, obviously, maybe they know specifically that he's a little bit closer to being ready than you would think and they're willing to do a ramp up. So maybe you approach it that way in terms of where you are in terms of if you need somebody for your starting lineup over the next couple of weeks. All right. Well, go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for checking out five moves to make before week five for Tara. I'm Ryan Waremley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros, Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcast at fantasyprose.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok @FantasyPros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/FantasyPros. [Music] This is Kylie Breikman, Angel Jaretana, and we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist on artist podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween some time. 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