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Speaker 2Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.
Speaker 3Welcome in. Monday, August 10th. Welcome into the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Jason Moore, Mike, the Fantasy Hitman. I'm Andy Holloway. And we are back. The season approaches. The injuries are piling up. That is the official sound effect. Of injuries.
Speaker 1I feel personally targeted with these, with this current round of injuries.
Speaker 3Yeah, I agree. I mean, Luther Burden and... Flowers. Say flowers. Yeah, it's... What's this all about? Oh, and then, you know, even, I guess it's more than just injuries, I feel like, are attacking you in the moment. What's that? Because I feel like the news is bending on a couple situations, like against you. Like the Bashawl Tootin.
Speaker 1Oh, no, that, yes.
Speaker 3I mean, there's a few things that feel... I feel like Mike is finally... We're turning the corner on the year of Mike, you know? Yeah, the year of Mike is, you know... No, no. Was back there. No?
Speaker 1The chips are still in on Tootin, guys. Oh, okay. Well, please bring that ADP down.
Speaker 3Is that what it is?
Speaker 1That's my hope. It's a win-win for you? Yeah.
Speaker 3If the news is bad, then the ADP's down. We got a great show. We got wide receivers today. The top 10 countdown. We've got injuries to catch you up on. That's not so fun, but we'll do it. And it should be good. We have more and more camp, more and more highlights. I mean, Carson Beck, there's no looking at across the field. Oh, my goodness. That was pretty ballsy. Yeah. But if you're a Cardinal, you just do what you want because... Because why? What's the worst that can happen? It doesn't matter.
Speaker 4Nothing matters. Also, you get to throw against that defense, which is... You don't even have to look.
Speaker 3That's what that proves about the defense for the Cardinals. I don't know why they paid Jacoby Bursette, though. That's the part that's just...
Speaker 4Because we are an unserious franchise.
Speaker 3That's why. Yeah. Somebody was trying to break it down, and I go, yes, but you're applying logic to the situation. That's not part of the Arizona Cardinals. Correct. YouTube.com slash the Fantasy Footballers. Make sure you subscribe. Click the bell over there. Make sure you are up to date on all the new videos because Sunday Live is coming soon. Mike is with you an hour before kickoff. Last-minute changes and adjustments. I mean, we can get the rankings. Our rankings get updated all Sunday morning right up to kickoff, but there's still news and things that are, you know, decisions that you're making. We'd all love to be able to lock our lineup in on, you know, Wednesday afternoon and have it be a done deal. That's just not how fantasy works anymore.
Speaker 1Well, and everything is, you know it. There's nuance to everything in fantasy football. So, you know, we talk through rankings of, like, sometimes a player is slightly ranked ahead, but look at the actual situation. Don't just go blindly off of this list. What does your team need? And also, just the tips, it is our short-form, content that we've been putting out in August. New episode just hit on Saturday. What's that about? It's exclusively about this week was sleepers, 10 late-round sleepers talking through, you know, like my process of how we identify those situations and then not just giving you situations, but also some names that, like, I'm going after.
Speaker 3Is Dontavian Wicks one of the 10?
Speaker 1He's not in this one. Oh, he could be, though. He's, the drumbeat is getting louder. Yeah, and that is exclusively on YouTube.
Speaker 3Yes. Yep, youtube.com slash the fantasy. Footballers can watch it over there. What else is going on? You can follow us on X at the FF ballers, the ultimate draft kit available now with the new mock draft tool, ultimate draft kit.com to learn more about that, become an ultimate member and get access to everything. Let's talk some news.
Speaker 2News and notes from around the league.
Speaker 3All right. Luther burden is going to miss the entire preseason. They believe he'll be back for the regular season opener. It is not great news. It's a groin injury. Thank you. That was the authentic sound clip from the practice field. And we piped it in. And me.
Speaker 4Groin's been getting wrecked the last week.
Speaker 3Groin's have been getting wrecked. Yeah.
Speaker 1In more ways than one. And this one was a full disturbance. Yeah. In the force. Like, I didn't even have to check Twitter. I just, all the hair on my body just started standing up. It was like.
Speaker 3Your actual groin started hurting a little bit. Yes, it did. In sympathy. And I was just like, Luther. Grade two injury, Matthew Betts is talking about. You just don't like to hear that at all. Of course not.
Speaker 4You don't want to hear it, especially with the hype that everyone's so excited about Luther burden, what he's been doing at camp. I will say that the normal timeline for a grade two groin strain should put him totally 100% fine to start the season. No dip. In, uh, you know, a lot of times we talk about when you're coming off of certain injuries, it takes a couple of weeks to ramp up to pre-injury production. The data doesn't say that on this one. So he should be good to go from week one. However, there, there does come now a higher re-injury risk. And that would be the fear.
Speaker 3I mean, it talked to me for a second of how you're thinking about, like, we got news that Alec Pierce is about two weeks away from returning to practice. Ironically, on the last episode of the show, I said, I was saying if it's within three weeks and then we kind of agreed, all right. Within two weeks, it comes back to practice. I'm feeling okay. Which situation are you less comfortable with? Pierce is coming back maybe in two weeks. Got the contract. That gives him like three weeks for the season. A little less than that. Or missing the rest of practice with a re-injury risk.
Speaker 4I like, I'm definitely more personally, I'm more concerned about Alec Pierce than I am about Luther Burden. Luther Burden has spent this entire off season, the entire time using himself in the new role. Um, he's established himself. And now. Yeah. Yeah. He's unfortunately got to take some time off to rest. Alec Pierce, one of the arguments I know you've made, um, I I've been more that Josh Downs is going to be the largest beneficiary. Hold on.
Speaker 3Let me, let me do the Josh Downs effect.
Speaker 4Ah, yeah. He's also got a groin injury now. Um, but you know, the, the, who's going to be the biggest beneficiary of losing the Michael, uh, Pittman targets. The issue is Alec Pierce. If he's going to go into that different type of a role and be more of a possession guy, he, he just didn't get to. He didn't get to practice it, you know, but if he comes back and just plays the role that he's played for this offense for the last couple of years, then there's no worry. Like if I'm a coach, I'm going to be like, dude, he, he knows his role. He knows this office. He not, not that he can't move into other things, but obviously that is a big deal when you miss, if you want to like really go into a different role, but you miss the entirety of the off season training camp, preseason, all of the reps, Jay, my argument with Pierce
Speaker 3has just been that, um, that he already. Has done a lot of that stuff. So, um, we'll see what happens with the injury. At least the team has come out and said, Hey, he's going to get a ton of more targets. I mean, we have an injured right now. We have an injured downs and an injured Pierce, a recovering from injury, Daniel Jones, a newly minted Jonathan Taylor, and, uh, ready to go. Tyler Warren. That's your, that's your situation. Dog. We, we, I almost forgot. We have so many shows. It's funny because people text us and message us things that we've said on the show, but we do hundreds and hundreds of shows and I'm old or than someone that could remember everything we've ever said. So they were just reminding me that if you go back far enough, man, this was like, I forgot about Katzton dogland situation. I forgot how much you dogged on the cat.
Speaker 4Well, in college he was like yet to break a tackle. He, he was not the, he is the discount. This guy, are you doubling down on it? Oh, I'm just saying it was true. It was like, that's not, that's objective. He didn't like this guy. No, he didn't not. He didn't really break tackles in college. He, he ran away from guys, uh, but he was not a huge tackle breaker in college.
Speaker 3Um, Devante Smith, McKay lemon remained sidelined on Saturday, not practicing. There was a report this morning about like McKay lemon. It's been a re-injury situation. He is somebody I'd be worried about the reps on. I got a snake, man.
Speaker 4Oh, yeah. Oh, that's because of the press conference. Yeah.
Speaker 3Cause of the serpentine slither. Um, I'll be honest. I was a little scared there. Uh, but the report this morning, all the news on Dontavian Wicks has been very, very positive. You got to remember, this is not a high, like this was one of the lowest passing offenses in football. And so I love Dallas Goddard and this does not hurt my love of Dallas Goddard. I think he's a great guy. He's a sneaky near my guy level, like endorsement from me. I think Dallas Goddard is a machine. this year because eli stowers no news mckay lemon constantly hurt a.j brown gone don tavian wicks you can give him a bunch of press he's had it before gotta catch the football he does but and
Speaker 1even it's a low passing but that's the thing like there's not a lot to go around there's the three
Speaker 3there yeah for the three and that's really maybe four i mean if if wicks smith and goddard are getting more targets than mckay lemon yeah i'm just saying that worries me because you're not
Speaker 1getting 5 000 passing yards out of jalen hurts i i agree and the thing for goddard is it he has to run hot with with touchdowns which he was at 11 last year after being two three three four you know the targets it was 82 targets so i mean it's not bad it's not no it's not bad that wasn't 15 games but i was going to mention of yeah the volume is lower but there's always been enough for a.j brown and davante smith for for them to both be like top 24 guys so wicks is undrafted if wicks truly becomes the number two like he he has the playmaking ability i agree to to really make some noise and fantasy the drops and everything players that players drop the ball it does it it does happen it seemed like it happened more for wicks and then it just it becomes this self-fulfilling prophecy of you're like we see it you're like oh there he's gonna drop it again there are some guys traded for him and they gave him like a little bit of boost in money and he's probably starting on the outside drops are
Speaker 4not always a sticky thing you know you you see some superstars jamar chase or cd lamb or whatever that they go evans a little yeah they go through a little stretch but there are a few guys and i could think of three wicks quentin johnson quentin johnson and marvin harrison where it's like it's become such a thing for them that it can't not be in their head every pass yeah the league
Speaker 3leader in drops every year is always a superstar but you cd lamb or almonra saint brown it's somebody that gets 150 targets so you're going to have more of those but um i just think it's one of those obviously sneaky situations where you can have an undrafted guy wicks should go at the end of every draft you could put them on your team and have like you have two injured guys like davante smith is a he does get hurt we talk about when aj brown or him miss a game goddard benefits we know that because the data is there because they miss time i mean wicks was like there were
Speaker 1you know if you were if you were around for fantasy football in the offseason when wicks got traded at least i'll just speak for me personally it was a oh this is actually sort of interesting because you already had it combined with the locked in you know promise that aj brown was going to be traded and it got completely derailed because my kai lemon was drafted in the first round which that totally makes sense but if my kai lemon is not a factor maybe have some more excitement for wicks have you guys heard one word about hollywood brown
Speaker 4no he's there no i i just remembered like i was like who else is there oh yeah isn't isn't hollywood brown there but i like i if he if you told me he retired early this offseason i would
Speaker 3believe you i'd be like oh i missed that news josh jacobs did not practice thursday or friday or sunday with a groin injury the groin is going around uh jayden reed did not practice on sunday ankle injury matthew golden toe injury so the packers taking some time off there a couple of bigger pieces of news we got news this morning that the the new center for the lions is going to miss eight to ten weeks or longer a mid-season return that sucks that was an upgrade point for them they went out they spent the money and then they're going to miss it laramie tunzel will miss the majority of the season torn triceps that would be the commander's left tackle and um that's that's a big deal it's a downgrade for that offensive line which means jayden which means bill bill and then hunter henry agreed to a two-year contract extension for 14.5 million i mean he's the definition of a dalton schultz-esque solid tight end that could if you start those guys on any given week they could be fine absolutely hunter henry's a good player especially to
Speaker 4start the year he always gets off to like the first two weeks of every season does feel like he owns the first week he waited till weeks three and four this was it somewhere early in the season
Speaker 3he goes off every year is there any news that i i mean sprained mcl for isaiah pacheco i missed that um they think he'll be ready in week one that's all i know of right now yeah malik neighbors trending towards being ready for week one that was the other news coming out from espn's jordan uh renan how do you feel about that
Speaker 4oh yeah and the quad contusion for zay flowers yeah uh it seems as far as malik neighbors every video that you watch you go okay he seems ready whether he is fully cleared for you know every week or two he's going to be ready for week one he's going to be ready for week two he's going to a bit of contact in every route but i've also heard over the last couple weeks you know from boots on the ground that he's looking better like every week that goes on he's looking more and more like himself so i think come week one he will be on the field uh i i think come week six he'll be back to his normal you know pre-injury self also one other piece of news i do believe that the quad issue with mike evans is in the past now he was back out there okay uh did you move
Speaker 3luther burden in your rankings because i have i've not adjusted yet okay i mean are you going to uh
Speaker 1right now i don't plan to i was already here let me go i can double check again but like because of his adp we've just been lower on him than the adp because it took off like a rocket
Speaker 4ship yeah it's ironic because we have not been drafting much luther burden even though we love the talent and the and the the situation because of his adp but now with the injury he's probably going to drop quite a bit as people are worried about it and then maybe we end up with some burden i i did up his risk rating in the i did as well yeah and i may i maybe moved him
Speaker 3just a touch um because there i mean there's a risk now i mean he could miss week one that that actually is in the realm of possibility all right we'll take a break and jump into the top 10 wide receivers all righty we did a wide receiver episode on friday counting down the number 20 through number 11 in our consensus rankings we're looking at the top 10 today this should be fun discussions to be had what makes a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy since 2015 someone finishing in the top 10 for fantasy 67 percent of them averages nine or more targets per game so you're talking cream of the crop 73 percent had eight or more receiving touchdowns so we should discuss these players in the context of can they reach that mark the average numbers for top 10 wide receivers 99 receptions on 148 targets 1300 plus yards and 9.5 touchdowns so you're
Speaker 1talking big time year yeah i mean yeah top end is pulling that average yeah and and maybe if we have
Speaker 3time at the end i'd love to know a name i mean maybe it was discussed on the last show maybe it's outside of the top 20 but somebody that you think can get up into that tier that isn't in that tier we'll go ahead and uh we'll start it off here number 10 nico collins comes in at number 10 we finally found a guy yes there it is that i am the highest on yeah it turns out that mike is the highest on nico collins he's been the wide receiver 9 20 and 8 the last three years he has not played i think that's something that might be not talked about much about nico 14 games 10 games 15 12 15 so you know when you look at what he did last year points per game it was a little bit down 12.7 versus he's been at 14.7 he's a machine he's a great player three straight thousand yard seasons um second in yards per outrun over the last three seasons we love that number seventh in ppr points per game over the last three seasons we love that number seventh in ppr points per game over the last three seasons so he if you just look at points per game puka jamar aman ross cd tyreek and malik neighbors and then nico collins ahead of jefferson ahead of aj brown ahead of davante adams we know he's the number one we might not like cj stroud a lot but this is the team that's going to be a very good threatening for the division where are you with the you know i'm looking their favorite in uh six of their first seven weeks the buffalo matchup in week one should be fun why doesn't he necessarily feel like drafting jamar chase or jefferson is it all related to stroud i don't
Speaker 4think it's all related to stroud a lot of it is also related to volume he is you know the the deep threat gets you know those bomb touchdowns that's great wins you a week but he's not a guy that's going to be up you know we just talked about pretty much the average top 10 wide receiver is usually about 150 targets he's not going to get 150 targets i don't think i mean that's just not how he's been utilized this last year he had 120 targets
Speaker 1he averaged eight targets a game and we said the threshold was nine so yeah so he's just
Speaker 4in the 130 range probably yeah i mean last year finished as the wide receiver eight which is like oh that's great but it's ironic because we've talked a lot about how zay flowers finished as the wide receiver seven but it was like fake because this year with injuries to other guys and the points per game like he had his lowest points per game this past season nico collins did um in the last couple of years so what we saw last most recently was not really exciting really inspiring as like we went into last year believing he could be a top three wide receiver and then regressed on a points per game basis now you get um a couple other guys the the news around jayden higgins has been phenomenal recently i don't know if people are plugged into that but higgins has been talked up like crazy not just by beat reporters but also i mean cj stroud himself
Speaker 3by nico collins yeah that boy a dog got all the tools in the world gonna be the face of the
Speaker 4franchise one year yeah so i mean pretty good and then you get tank dell back um so i mean maybe this just helps open things up for nico but to me when i look at nico versus the other guys around him my biggest hardship is just target volume and um i will say he's usually overcome it so it's not a big scare i don't i don't look at him like a like a bust pick he's just not my favorite archetype
Speaker 3personally i wonder what kyle kyle if you want to look up what cj stroud's yardage line is set at this year that's a concern for me 217 yards a game last year for cj stroud a defense a defense that is going to be built to minimize stroud's mistakes allow david montgomery and woody marks to run the football and then you'd think that nico collins would have been a player that has gotten to double digit touchdowns with that frame he's never done it uh eight seven six the last three years oh oh no these trends continue yeah i mean based on how numbers work but i i think those are all i think you guys brought up the main points there and i think he's a very solid you know top 12 type of guy and i think he's a very solid guy and i think he's a very solid guy and not going to be somebody that's going to can finish at number one i don't think that's possible
Speaker 4it's really funny because there's two like types of options you want in the receiving game you want a team that is just you know the bangles the cowboys teams that are going to be putting up 30 points seen as a top five nfl offense or you want a team that's like they're going to be down all game they've got to throw like crazy and this is neither of those this isn't going to be a top 10 offense at least it's not currently projected that way because this is such a good defense but this is a really good team they're going to be hopefully running the ball in the fourth quarter versus throwing the ball so it's like this double whammy against uh the passing game for the texans and it's at no fault of their own it's it's a good strategy to win ball games for
Speaker 1the texans when you have stroud they're going to win and well nico is the jayden higgins stuff i think it's interesting higgins is a is a uh he's a fun player as like we're going into year two
Speaker 3uh day two i wasn't impressed on film last year by higgins i wasn't i watched it i watched the film and i felt like he left a lot on the table and i was surprised maybe it's stroud that you know brings it down not enough opportunities not enough good situations the stroud yardage line is 35.99 yeah so he's sitting right at 3600 it's the same
Speaker 1number as baker mayfield stroud or uh sorry nico's the number one that's like that's easy that's the the argument for for nico collins is he's very good he's like the last three years has been this past year was was more down than the other two and stroud for all of his weaknesses or you know perceived uh he's just he can't get over the hump he's not gonna be able to do it 3600 yards that's enough where you know i've talked about you know tetero mcmillan and bryce young it's like the reason that mcmillan kind of freaks me out is the true number one on the team is bryce young yards like that's a good season for bryce stroud stroud hit 4000 as a rookie was 3700 in a full year his sophomore season even if it didn't work out for us for fantasy football that's 3700 passing yards that he can easily return to and nico's the number one and is a
Speaker 4good player his line is set at 3600 yards right now and usually if if you don't if you're unaware lines are set a little lower than what a full healthy game is right you gotta you gotta bake
Speaker 3risk number nine george pickens comes in at number nine i've got him at eight mike is of course the lowest of course jason of course so we're right across that i mean i i really really i believe dallas could be a very good team this year i agree there it's not too dissimilar to cincinnati we've said it a million times but they're very similar teams two all-star all pro wideouts um running games that'll be okay defenses that through caleb downs and dexter lawrence have both improved to the point where i think competitive you know being competitive and winning games with that kind of an offense should be there um you know the story with george pickens number five overall last year he was awesome um five weeks of 20 plus points only puka had more week winning performances than george pickens you just have to have two guys on the same team finishes wide receiver ones here we've seen it before we've averaged one year one pair per year since 2015 um you know if i had to
Speaker 4pick which team does it this year which obviously i think everyone would be like bangles or cowboys
Speaker 1it would be the cowboys yeah the rankings and the adp are pretty confident for the cowboys what
Speaker 3other teams are in contention there would it be like rams did it last year yeah rams um maybe
Speaker 1i mean because just jameson maybe jameson's finished as a top 10 before yeah they'd be in there maybe i mean they that was 2025 was almond raw and jameson yeah dark horse saints yeah now
Speaker 3we're talking now we're talking yeah target competition with cd when cd was in in the game um pickens was at 21 target share so we don't like that number for a top 10 finish yeah 21 on
Speaker 1his routes 26 when cd was out the i think it's just the looking at last year is it's very noisy of in terms of i don't think you can cleanly gather out of just doing like the box scores a you know cd is for sure just by far the number one because you had early on in the season it was george it's his first games with the dallas cowboys and cd lamb was dominating then he gets hurt and george completely takes over not only the cowboys but he takes over fantasy football and then the end of the season they're both doing well and there's a couple low games here and there i i think george pickens is truly a a an elite uh budding superstar for for the nfl you know i have him at 12 because i'm just it's a it's a little bit hedged his 80ps at 11 but i have no problem with with him going at 11 i have no problem with you and you got him at eight i think that's perfectly acceptable for what george could do with cd on the field
Speaker 4if you take out the the first two games the argument you're making is like okay that was that was right the the first time george played with cd in real games you know cd dominated those targets take some time then he got injured george went off yeah once cd came back so week seven on the 17 game target pace when both those guys were on the field taking out those first two games would have been 143 to 137 targets so it was not that wide of a of a gap however tough end of the
Speaker 3season yes really tough end of the season for the last five weeks for pickens and you and you might you know last week i think they sat down started yeah that's what i say the final three weeks
Speaker 1was tough just for the cowboys cd lamb was 8.1 7.1 and then doesn't really play the game
Speaker 3number eight all right aj brown comes in as our number eight wide receiver that's where his adp is right now um there have been moments this offseason where i've wanted to be like super all in on aj brown like like it should work that's it should it almost makes too much it almost makes i mean it's too quiet i mean he's he's been a dominator last year the much bemoaned offense he still got it done still finished at number 10 with two games he missed it should be a very good at least one more year i think for aj brown in new england now there's going to be acclimation to this offense to some degree building that rapport with drake may does that happen instantly we know aj brown is a particular kind of guy when it comes to the squeaky wheel baby squeaky wheel and and it should be you know you're moving from one of the worst passing offenses in football statistically in terms of pass rate and total passing offensive statistics to one of the best in football in the world and i think that's going to be a very good football new england was unbelievable last year you can say what you want about the schedule but production is production and drake may went out there and like i mean they were they were just
Speaker 4really really good and they passed the ball a ton the case with aj brown is does he still have it like that's the entirety for me because there's some people last year old man river now that looked at the film and said he he looks like he lost a step and he's going to turn 30 this year he's not the same dude and he's lost a step and so you will be maybe disappointed with where you're drafting him and he's not and he's not that guy if that's your argument fine but if he's still good and keep in mind last year he was the wide receiver 10 missing two games on a low volume offense how can he not almost project to be a top five wide receiver this is a a dominator for fantasy for many many years who is going from a low volume to a high volume to a team that just lost stefan diggs who had a thousand yards and was basically their their primary receiving option The volume of opportunity for him should be 25% more than it was last year.
Speaker 3I've got two things I want to discuss and get your thought on, Jay. One is you may see between building the report of Drake May and the schedule, I don't know if you can have a tougher first four weeks in the NFL. You go to Seattle. That's really tough. Then you play Pittsburgh at home, okay. Then you go to Jacksonville, you go to Buffalo. You are underdogs in three of the first three weeks. You're on the road in three of the first three weeks, and you're trying to build a rapport with the quarterback against defenses that are going to be pretty good. It could be a slower start is all I'm saying. It concerns me.
Speaker 4Week one concerns me, that first game out there and then playing against a world-class defense in the Seahawks. The Jags are a good team, and you might be the underdog. The Bills are a great team, and you're probably the underdog. But those are also good offenses. Yeah. Where you're going to have to pass. So I don't mind that personally. I think that those two games, the Jags and the Bills, those games will be like I want those environments.
Speaker 3Those will be huge tests, though, for a team that had the schedule they had last year. I mean, Drake May, we saw him in the playoffs. He wasn't the same guy against these top-tier teams. One other thing. What were you going to say?
Speaker 4I was just going to say I'm in on A.J. Brown. I don't think that he's lost a step. No, I don't either. And if he hasn't, this should be. This should be a pretty easy and obvious successful pick.
Speaker 3There have been a handful of guys, seven in fact, that since 2017 that are wide receivers that just changed teams. And how did they perform? So like Brandon Cooks was the wide receiver nine, became the wide receiver 12 when he switched teams, also went to New England. Amari Cooper went from wide receiver 13 to 18. Beckham went from seven to 26. Antonio Brown never played again. No. I don't know why they're in the sample. What is it? Oh, he just, he got.
Speaker 1That was the year he peaced out, man. Yeah. And if I remember right. Hopkins made the same.
Speaker 3Tyreek got better.
Speaker 4Like it was going well for Antonio Brown. Oh, he was very good. And then just took his shirt off and left football. He played, it was a game. Is that what?
Speaker 1Yeah, one game. Oh my gosh.
Speaker 3We'll move on.
Speaker 2Number seven.
Speaker 3Justin Jefferson comes in at number seven. I've got him at six. Mike at six. Jason is at seven. Seven. Justin Jefferson is 27 now, guys. Yeah. Not forever young. It happens. But still very young. This is the number one all time through the first six years of the NFL in receptions and receiving yards. We know the player. We just want to know that he has a stable situation offensively. And we now know, like we didn't know, how bad it can get. It can get pretty bad. I mean. Sub 10 points a game. We've had all time. This is a really, really good thing to look at. We've had all time players have down years. This has happened for Larry Fitzgerald before. But, you know, A.J. Green, Hopkins, Devontae Adams, they've all had years where they slipped outside that top 20. But you know, their Hall of Fame type talents. When A.J. Green finished at 24, the next year he was the wide receiver seven. When Hopkins finished at 30, the next year he was the wide receiver one. Same team. When Devontae Adams finished at 24, he was the wide receiver one. The next year. The best players end up coming back to form. Everything about Jefferson and camp has been amazing. It's just the J.J. Kyler mess. And maybe. And it's still a mess. Maybe that's affordability, though, for a player that could be number one again.
Speaker 4It's not really in the sense that most people are in on Justin Jefferson. I guess if you're taking him as, you know, the wide receiver, you know, six off the board and he finishes at one, then you did get, you know, a discount. But he could slip into the second round for a lot of leagues for a guy that finished. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He finished as wide receiver 22 last year, playing all every single game. I mean, it was atrociously bad. And now the all is forgiven. No one is no one is off of Justin Jefferson. But the quarterback competition right now this year has not looked great. You know, the most recent reports goes back and forth. The most recent reports I've seen are that J.J. has had more just not Justin Jefferson, nine McCarthy has had more better practices than Kyler Murray. So it's, you know, it's it's not it's not impossible that Justin Jefferson comes out this next year and is the wide receiver 15 because if he gets if he scores five touchdowns because these quarterbacks can't throw touchdowns, that's the issue.
Speaker 3He had 10 games with McCarthy last year, five with Carson Wentz, two with Max Brosmer. I do think that that's borderline impossible for him to do in this offense. I think it's going to be better. I mean, a second year, J.J. McCarthy is better than a first year McCarthy and Kyler Murray could be the starter. And that would be a much, much better. I think I think that's too low for me. But you think he could be that would be full on. That would be one of the biggest Boston fantasy again.
Speaker 4That would be it. I mean, I get it. The quarterback situation should should be better this year. I mean, I've got him as my wide receiver seven. I'm not projecting him to be there. But to say it's impossible, I mean, he literally just played every single game and was the wide receiver. He was the wide receiver 22 because of quarterback play. The quarterbacks are not guaranteed to have been solved. And I really do probably wish they had Geno Smith. I wish it came down to touchdowns. And, you know, that's whether or not around the red zone bypassing.
Speaker 1So like ADP wise, what I'm seeing right now is after Jefferson is Drake London and A.J. Brown.
Speaker 4Yeah. I mean, every time that I've had that decision, I've gone A.J. Brown over over Justin Jefferson. Because how far does it go? Nico, I would not take Nico over him, George, George. So I'm looking at my rankings and I literally was like, I think I would rather have George. That's crazy. It feels crazy.
Speaker 3In which case, you know, it just to me, it just like, again, a down year versus a downward trend, I think, are different things. So you're not confident in Kevin O'Connell to get it fixed, because if you I mean, to me, it's a discount on. Justin Jefferson, if you have any confidence in Kevin O'Connell as a head coach. Yeah. I mean, I can't let that happen two years in a row. And there were again, you had three quarterbacks to start.
Speaker 1And that's why they went and got Kyler, because the hope was, OK, we can if it doesn't work out for McCarthy, then we just that we have this veteran who was at least not the worst. Kyler's not great. He's not. He won't be the worst.
Speaker 3Strategically.
Speaker 1Strategically.
Speaker 3Isn't the smarter thing for them to do to start J.J.?
Speaker 1If if the camp battles are actually as close as they can be, then it's going to be a close as we are hearing.
Speaker 3I'm just thinking of the transition. It's a lot easier to pull J.J. for Kyler to me.
Speaker 1I just like team wise. If it's close, you should be putting McCarthy out there as because he could be. He's still young. He can still get better where it's like Kyler Murray's not getting better. No. At football. He is. He is dressed a lot, actually. Yeah. If anything, he's only getting worse from this this point moving forward. But it's it's a mess, man. Like they. McCarthy has his supporters online. It seems like the media. Prefers Kyler. Look, dunking on J.J. McCarthy is pretty easy. And based off of what he did last year with the memes, everything is pretty fun. So I don't I'm I think I'm more on Jason's side of just like. Jefferson's ranked high because I'm respecting the player, what he can do. But the risks are. It's very high right now. You need to know what you're getting yourself into. Don't just it's not blind. Everything is totally fixed. Things could be status quo from last year.
Speaker 4Yeah. Right now he's going right next to C.D. Lamb. Like they're there. Oh, give me C.D. Lamb. Yeah, I would take C.D. Lamb there and Ashton Gentry. Like those are the two players on on each side. Or if you prefer Hampton or H.A.N.
Speaker 3It's more about cost is what you're saying, because the risk is still there. You don't see it removed. I am comforted by the fact that the comparisons that we had. With other legendary wide receivers, you are going to have odd years. But to go from 30 to one, to go from 24 to seven, you know, Adam, same situation. It's comforting to me. I think the talent is too good and the target share is too large. But yeah, there's risk because we don't have. I think people wanted to see. This guy won the job today. Like if I if you if you knew today that one of these guys had dominated and was named the starter, would you feel? Different about Jefferson?
Speaker 4Yes. Yes, entirely. This is not a Justin Jefferson problem. Justin Jefferson is. I mean, he's probably the best wide receiver. Like if I was drafting, I mean, Chase is younger. So if I was drafting as a GM, but whatever. But as a prototypical wide receiver, I think Justin Jefferson's the best in football. That's not an anti Justin Jefferson take. And so if you give the best wide receiver one hundred and sixty targets, he should be OK. But it is just number six.
Speaker 3I'm sorry. I thought you said I got to really just you got to throw your hand up or something when you're done.
Speaker 1It's just a quarterback worry.
Speaker 3OK, number six is a quarterback.
Speaker 1I'm going to go move him down. I'm freaked out.
Speaker 3Well, talk. It's a perfect next player to talk about. Drake London. Drake London is our. I have Jefferson ahead of London. As does Mike. Jason, you have him flip flopped. This is where it's like. I get a little bit. confused about that storyline because You don't have a quarterback situation here in Atlanta that you should feel confident about. Some combination of Tua and Penix is not the most exciting situation in the world. And so does London have a pass because he's thrived in bad situations once versus Jefferson, who doesn't get a pass because we saw him struggle in a tough situation once? I guess that's kind of my question. Is it about target consolidation? Why is London higher here?
Speaker 4I think it is just target consolidation in the sense that you've got Jordan Addison and Hawkinson versus Kyle Pitts and Zachariah Branch or John Dodson.
Speaker 3It doesn't sound too different to me. Pitts is much better than Hawkinson in the target pecking order.
Speaker 1Addison's would be way better than those two.
Speaker 4I get what you're saying. I think it's a very fair... And that's why Jefferson's usually going above London in drafts. They both have a quarterback issue. And you've got a better player in Justin Jefferson. I would have to take a strong look in the mirror to actually select Drake London over Jefferson. This is where, when I'm really in that spot, feel more confident in some of the running backs there as far as what... They cost versus when it comes back around to the next round, the wide receivers that are there versus the running backs.
Speaker 3We've only ever had one, according to the data that Kyle's pulled here, because it's very rare to have a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy with a quarterback outside the top 30, like a late round quarterback. The only one to do it, I mean, 2024 Devontae Adams, it looks like. Drake London with Michael Pinnock, it's just difficult to pull off. Yes, we don't... And maybe Tua plays every week and we're happy with the offense.
Speaker 1That's the question, is we don't 100% know what's going on with the quarterback situation. The tea leaves, at least for Atlanta, seem to be stronger for me of it's going to be Tua, at least to start the year. And I know Tua collapsed last year. And this is not a saying Tua is a... Tua is a fantastic quarterback. But he's, you know, Kyler, I guess, has given us some fantasy hopes in the past, but it's like Tua's more recent of, he's been able to get it done.
Speaker 4Kyler is a better fantasy option than Tua. So when we talk, you know, in the fantasy circles, it's like Kyler, greater sign Tua. But in reality, Tua has led the league, the NFL, in passing yardage before. So, you know, Kyler is not a guy...
Speaker 1How much is Tua and how much is Mike McDaniel is the question.
Speaker 4Absolutely. I would say, you know, 70% McDaniel, 30% Tua. But passing volume, that's never been Kyler's strength. Kyler is a good passer with legs that can get out of the pocket and be a dual threat guy.
Speaker 3Tua's played, he played 14 games last year. He was on pace for 3,200 passing games.
Speaker 1Oh, yeah, yeah. I said last year was a collapse.
Speaker 3He threw 18 picks. So I find myself in a position where I trust the talent of Jefferson a little bit more than Drake. And I don't think Drake London has ever brought up in any context to be a bust like Jefferson was last year. But to me, the quarterback situation says it's at least in the realm of possibility.
Speaker 1No, I think it's very, very fair.
Speaker 3Let's take a break and we'll talk the top five. All right, we're going to get into the top five. And by the way, this is our top 10 wide receiver episode. So we are trying... There's a built-in compliment when you announce each player already because they're ranked in our top 10. So we're trying to find pathways to differentiate between range of... Find a range of outcome for these players so that you have perspective. Number five. CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee Lamb's coming off of a down year.
Speaker 1We'll say once you get in the top five, things get a lot easier.
Speaker 3Well, is it easier with Lamb? I mean... It is for me. 11.7 fancy points per game last year. That was a huge deal. I mean, when he was number one overall, it was 19.7, then it was 14.2, now it's 11.7. Some people think, maybe Mike is one of them, that Pickens is the better actual wide receiver.
Speaker 4The per-game numbers are wonky. You had his injury game where he played 9% of the snaps, scored zero points, and then week 18 where you didn't play the starters really and he scored 0.9 points. So the per-game is not really that low. That's just the easy-to-grab number.
Speaker 3If you pull those out, I'm seeing around 13.
Speaker 4Yeah, so, I mean, he also had, he dealt with drops, which was weird, and I don't think that we're going to say he's, I was frustrated, man. I had CD last year. I was like, oh my gosh, he left so many fancy points on the field with those drops. I don't think that's going to happen all the time. And he also, you know, maybe it was, maybe it was George that was really siphoning the touchdowns away. I mean, I loved the George-Dak match made in heaven. That's why he was a my guy last year, is because he was perfect for that team. But the touchdowns really seemed like they were going George's way. I very much believe that CD Lamb is the alpha for this team, but I think both these guys are going to be wide receiver ones, and whoever is the better, which I definitely think is CD, personally, will be dominant for fantasy.
Speaker 3Mike, do you have thoughts on CD? Or do you want me to move on?
Speaker 1No, I think he's very easy of a top five type of player. Jason was right about you got to navigate his box score because it was, you know, the last three weeks was an absolute disaster. But it's like in real, in real football games, his low was five for 66. Like, you know, he was over 100 yards, what, seven times? I'm trying to count real fast. CD Lamb was still a dominant player. It was just, it was one of those years where the injuries and drops and things just, it got in the way. But he's still in the top five. He's still in AIM consistency. How old is he? He is 27. All these guys are 27.
Speaker 4Nico's 27, Jefferson's 27, CD's 27.
Speaker 3All right. Disrespectfully coming in at number four. Of course. I mean, there's nothing better than a receiver that has been the wide receiver three, three, and three.
Speaker 1We're doing y'all a favor. Coming in at four. I mean, isn't that just the biggest slap in the face? It is. No, no. Amin Ra lives for doubt. He is fueled by. By hate and negative comments. So we're just, that's all we're, that's all we're doing.
Speaker 3Here's a wild stat about Amin Ra. He has, he had 11 touchdowns last year. And what was he, was he dragged down inside the five, the most of anybody? Yeah. So like Ian Hart had sent this out, led the league in most receptions where he was tackled inside the five. He had eight times and he still scored 11 touchdowns. Yeah. That's how good this offense was. So Amin Ra, is he the safest pick?
Speaker 4I don't, I mean, safest, I would still say Jamar, but you've got. He's pretty close. Yeah.
Speaker 3I mean, he's. Jamar's point in safety. I mean, Burrow has been hurt a lot.
Speaker 4Yeah. Well, and Jamar. I mean, that's, that is one of the things that you have to love about Amin Ra.
Speaker 1He was supposed to miss a game. Isaac Dissela was supposed to have his moment in the sun and Amin Ra was like, no.
Speaker 4In his career. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In his career. 17. What dog I'm going to play. 17 games played. 16, 16, 17, 17. And he plays through injury. And the thing is, is he plays well through injury. Some guys hobble through injury and they hurt themselves and they should take time to rest. He is tough. He is used around the red zone so much. The thing is, is he years ago, it was like, well, I don't know that he's going to be a touchdown guy because, you know, he's, he's a slot player. They move them everywhere. They have him as a first read target. This is one of those offenses that you. You want to target the most. And if you compare, like when I think of the tip top offenses, which I, you can put the Rams there, um, for sure they, they scored, you know, we, we will, they, they were there personally. I, I have the three of the bangles, the Cowboys and the, um, and the lions, but the wide receiver two option for those teams in T Higgins and CD lamb and Jamison Williams, I feel like the, the, the target. Share is so much more towards the one for almond raw. They just, he is the possession receiver. Kind of like, um, a real version of Rashi rice. Like Rashi rice is like, like a real boy. Yeah. Rashi rice is just the Pinocchio, the system using him right. And getting him the ball all the time. And it's kind of annoying because he's not good enough to deserve that. But then almond raw is, and they still do it.
Speaker 3I, yeah, it's, it's just been a crazy run. He, he stays healthy. He plays 17, 15 and 15 plus points per game. That's just automatic. And they're favored in Fort member. They're favored in 14 of 17 games. I think the only games they're not favored in is a road game against Chicago. I think a road game against Buffalo and those are going to be fun games anyways. I mean, they're just, they're set up for, I believe like the best, just one of the best schedules we've seen in a long time.
Speaker 1Yeah. I mean, we've seen, we've seen, we've seen, I mean, we've seen, we've seen, we've seen 30%, 27%, 31%. This is what we're saying of he is extremely safe. He's unbelievable.
Speaker 4And that is, yeah. He's been over 100, not targets, receptions in four straight years, over 1,000 yards in all of them, but up by 1,500 yards. Double-digit touchdowns in three years in a row. Like, it feels, we are disrespectful to him.
Speaker 3I do, and I think it's a good discussion with this guy.
Speaker 2Number three.
Speaker 3So, Jackson Smith and Jigba was unbelievable last year. 17.7 fantasy points per game. Insane. Super Bowl champ. 1,793 receiving yards. Led the league. 35% target share. That's insane. But we have talked at length, like, everything went right for JSN last year. He was not the same level of total volume as the other top-tier type of guys. He was just exceptionally, exceptionally efficient with his work. I guess the question being is, you know, everybody, I mean, CeeDee had a 17-plus-point year, right? And it was a special year. Amon Ra had one, right, two years ago. He somehow finished at third still because, of course, but he was at 17. So, you do have special years. Double-digit touchdowns for JSN, 1,700 yards, 15 a catch. That was way higher than we'd seen before. Catch rate is 73%. I think it's a very fair discussion, the JSN versus Amon Ra question.
Speaker 4I do, too. And I wouldn't have any issue with taking Amon Ra over JSN. I think the hope is that because JSN is so young, he's 24 years old, he's still getting better. There's no one else, really, to throw the ball for this team. However, this is a team that wants to play great defense, and they can. They want to run the ball, spend a first-round pick on a running back. And, you know, so it's like, how does this team win? Does this team put up 30 points as often as the Lions? No. So, I mean, we're splitting hairs, but I think that we've seen enough years in a row of 110 receptions, you know, and double-digit touchdowns from Amon Ra. JSN, we've got one, and it was better. But, yeah, it's an interesting debate there.
Speaker 3They're both, they're the same as the Lions. They're favored to win, or they're favored in 14 of 17 weeks. Look at the red zone for JSN. And target-wise, he didn't dominate his, you know, Patriots on the offense. He had 15 targets in the red zone. Barner, 13. Cooper Cup, 12. Now Rasheed Shahid gets an offseason to establish in this offense. You get back Torrey Horton. You didn't have him before. I wouldn't be just surprised to see JSN's target share come down a little bit.
Speaker 1Yeah. Arguing against JSN feels... Yeah, I mean, I don't want to. No, I know. Just draft him and be happy. That's, I think that's where I'm at, but there's just, there's two other guys I would take him for. 56%. Yeah, that's a...
Speaker 3Taking the over or the under on that one?
Speaker 1I will go under.
Speaker 4Yeah, you got to take the under there.
Speaker 356% of the wide receiver targets on that offense. But he's great. Draft him. He's awesome. Number two. Jamar Chase comes in at two. Really? But Jason and Mike both have him at one. So, figure that out.
Speaker 4This is a points versus ranking situation where you... The difference in points. Yes. The point total. Of the three of us combined has Puka higher because you have Puka higher than Jamar in a greater gap than Mike and I do.
Speaker 3Yeah, I do. And we can talk about both of them. I'll hit the button. Number one. We'll talk about Jamar and Puka in the same conversation because both are awesome. I mean, statistically, last year, both guys missed a game. Puka was at 19.4 fancy points a game and Chase was at 15.7. Chase's season before was at 20. Both of these guys are going to be pushing. Those numbers every single year. I just like Puka more because I think I like the volume more. But how... I mean, to me, Puka is going to be... Like we were talking about breaking fantasy with Jameer Gibbs. It looks like Gibbs is just set up to have an incredible year. That is Puka for me. I just think that I trust McVay to get him the ball a ton. I don't... I think Higgins is probably greater signing. Adams right now in the career. But splitting hairs. You guys both have Jamar Chase ahead. I don't care.
Speaker 4Yeah, I mean, I don't... We don't care either. Both guys are awesome. We're not doing the debate show very good. Puka...
Speaker 1You guys like him? Okay, that's cool. I don't care. I mean, I don't understand.
Speaker 4If I was on the clock and I had to choose, the reason I would choose Chase over Puka is simply because of the offensive and defensive environments. I think that the... The ceiling case for the Bengals and Burrow when he is healthy is higher than the ceiling case for the Rams, especially assuming Aaron Donald is added to this team. And their defense is one of the best in the league. And maybe they can win at the end of games where they don't need to throw the ball that much. But...
Speaker 3And I mean, you could argue maybe Puka does something dumb legally. Yeah. If you want to lose the risk. I mean, these guys are literally capable. They're capable of pushing 200 targets. I think this year. Yeah. They're capable of pushing 200 targets. You have the MVP of football at quarterback for the Rams. And you have a quarter... They were a good defense last year. And so my counterpoint to that is McVay just doesn't let up on other opposing teams. They like burning people to the ground.
Speaker 1No, I'm with that. I think I am in agreement of Jason's case of the more likely ceiling outcome and projection for me is Jamar. You want to take Puka? I would take both of them if you get the chance. Yeah. We're... I can't even argue this.
Speaker 3No, I mean, they're both machines. I can't make anything up. I mean, all these guys are. I think if you end up with Puka, Jamar, Jason, or Gibbs, or sorry, or Amon Raw, I think that is... I think that's the actual tear break to me. And no disrespect to CeeDee Lamb. That's fair. I think CeeDee Lamb's awesome. But I think because CeeDee Lamb's awesome. CeeDee Lamb has been... I mean, he's been eight and 18 for whatever you're missing games. I know, I know, I know. But those other guys have been at 15 plus fantasy points in the last three years. And those guys... You know, the other guys haven't. Jefferson, London, those guys. So it's fun. I mean, I think we all have a few names in the wide receiver category that I think are really sneaky. Maybe outside the top 20. I know you and I were talking Carnell Tate this morning.
Speaker 4Yeah, that was the name I was going to bring up. Is if you want a guy that's going to surprise and come from much lower to be a top 10 wide receiver, you're talking about a rookie superstar. And that's, you know, what they drafted him to be. We'll see on the field if Cam Ward can support that.
Speaker 3It's been a good camp, according to reports.
Speaker 4Yeah. I mean, the connection there, he's been the clear number one. And I think he's mispriced. Christian Watson.
Speaker 3Yeah, I think Watson, Ladd McConkie. Tabuka. And who else am I thinking about jumping up into that? A burden. I think those are special players that are outside the top 10 that could get up in there for sure. Let's you up for a little mailbag, Mike?
Speaker 2Sure. Mailbag.
Speaker 3If you have a question, go to the website, the fantasy footballers dot com. Click to submit a question button or dial our voicemail hotline. Three zero two four six four TFFB. We love helping you out. Mark, we'll answer a couple before we shut down today. Mac in Nashville has a good one here. My question is simple. How come there's not enough hype around Darian Price? First round draft pick Super Bowl winners. They won starter going low in redrafts. Why is there such a difference between ADP of love and price?
Speaker 4It's a great question. I think that the biggest reason is the worry of passing role. He had no production profile on college of work in the receiving game. If he doesn't have that in the NFL, it would be very difficult. It's difficult to be great for fantasy, but everything you laid out is great. You're a first round talent or at least a first round draft pick on a team that lost both of their starting running backs from last year with a good offensive line and good offense.
Speaker 1They he's on his way up ADP wise. So if you're drafting right now, enjoy your sixth round running back. Pick as once preseason games are going on. I week, let's say preseason game week two. If Darian Price goes out and takes the first snap, he'll, he'll jump at least to the fifth, probably the back of the floor.
Speaker 3I love the fact that, oh, I mean, almost every highlight I see is receiving work. Every, I mean, his head coach came out and said he's like a wide receiver and that nobody can cover him and the highlights are downfield catches for Darian Price.
Speaker 4He is, um, he is someone that could get on the Abdullah express this preseason. If he has one highlight reel, one runaway touchdown, one run, and he's going to skyrocket two rounds.
Speaker 1If you like Darian Price, you, I would hope he does nothing in this.
Speaker 4Yeah. Yeah. If you're a believer, yeah. Hope, hope he stays low.
Speaker 3Bella says a dynasty win now team. Would you rather have Rashi rice or Garrett Wilson and Tyson? Garrett Wilson and Tyson. Like, I mean, if you said Rashi rice or Garrett Wilson in a dynasty,
Speaker 4if you said Rashi rice or Jordan Tyson in a dynasty, I would take win now.
Speaker 3Yeah, no, I, I would like, I'd rather win. now with Garrett Wilson I'd rather win now with because it's
Speaker 4it's close enough in a dynasty to where it's not only it's never only win now it's it's i'm i'm trying to win now you can still win now with those other guys man if you could if you could
Speaker 1pull that that seems wild to be able to bail out of of rice for those two guys all right that is
Speaker 3going to wrap it up for today's episode of the show the giveaway still going on footclanggiveaway.com if you want a bijon robinson signed jersey head over there and of course the draft kit ultimate draft kit.com we will be back we've got more rankings episodes running backs another mock draft this week 10 tips and tricks to win your league also catch you later goodbye
Speaker 2thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on twitter at the ff ballers
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