Exposing the Naza claims with the IDF officer who dismantled the 2009 UN charges | The Rosshandler Report

0:00 Exposing False Claims: The IDF's Civilian Protection Protocols Our combatants, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad combatants who systematically use their own population as human Shields, right. So if we take that number 25 to 30, perhaps 35,000 combatants out of 70,000, what we get is a civilian to combatant ratio that does not exceed 3 to one. 0:20 It's not more than three civilians for every combatant killed in Gaza. Now this is in the world's most dense a populated, complex urban warfare arena where every neighborhood, every hospital, every mosque turned into a Hamas military site used to attack Israeli civilians. 0:39 Hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, some think it's more than 600 kilometers, crisscrossed the entire Gaza Strip under these areas and all designed to limit the idea of stability to fire back. Now, when we take all of that into consideration, the idea of this being a war crime and genocide is completely ludicrous, is it not? 0:59 Speaker 2 First of all, yes, but listen, I'm listening to the old elaborated and correct response that you gave just now regarding what has happened. By the way, this is I think and one major from the US who is an expert in organic warfare says, said it. 1:20 This is the war with the most with the less civilian casualties ratio among all wars that has been done in the in the past, including those of Britain, US and everything. So he said that and he's an expert. 1:36 So your explanation must be correct. You know what the problem is? People don't don't want to listen. 1:48 Speaker 1 Welcome to the Ross Handler Report. I'm extremely pleased to have with me this morning Lieutenant Colonel in the reserves, Amitia Ghoul. He's a former senior IDF officer in the planning branch. We're going to be talking about a lot of things, the major arenas that we're tracking, but we're going to start with the blood libel known as the NASA film. 2:11 NASA is the Hebrew acronym for collateral damage. Neziga Gavi, neither of us have seen the film, but we've both been monitoring the media reports and interviews by the makers of this film. We're going to get straight into it. But first of all, Amit, let me welcome you back to the podcast. 2:27 It's great to have you. How have you been during this New Year period? 2:32 Speaker 2 It's great to be here again. Yeah, New year, an old wall. There are a lot of developments and we have a lot to talk about. 2:43 Speaker 1 100% So let's start with the NASA movie. As I've said, disclaimer, neither of us have seen it, but we've already seen excerpts, interviews by the makers, Yuval Evaham and his Co Co director. 3:00 We know that they are claiming that the IDF essentially deliberately killed on a large scale civilians in the Gaza Strip. They've taken what they claim to be 24 unidentified military intelligence soldiers. 3:16 Not a single name has been corroborated. We have no idea who these people are, what their actual tasks were, what they did in the unit during the war, what their access to the information is. None of that is known. It's more of a sort of trust me, bro kind of kind of approach by people who have been engaged in far left anti Israel activism long before this movie and who have made really insane comments on meat about the need to equalize the military balance of power between Israel and murderous jihadist, genocidal organizations like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. 3:53 So we know where they're coming from. We know that they're looking for the applause and the hug of the anti Israel Network abroad, which is extremely powerful. Let me ask you, based on what we do know, this film has claimed that the IDF was willing to kill 500 civilians in a single strike. 4:11 That collateral damage is not actually collateral damage. This is what they're claiming. They're claiming that the IDF, which we both know has gone to more lengths than any military, including any western military, to reduce collateral damage, to reduce harm to non combatants. 4:29 It's now being vilified and demonized in the in the worst possible way. What's your initial reaction to what we know about this movie? 4:39 Speaker 2 Let's start with the several facts that we need to stay up in advance. First of all, it's all right to criticize. Criticism is good. It's, you know, it's going to sharpen edges inside the IDF as well. 4:59 And criticism is good, but the difference between criticism to a story full of lies is very thin. And you need to be very constructive in your criticism in order to achieve something out of it. 5:20 Unless you're a political, you know, a political person who wants to achieve political goes, but if you want to criticize in order to improve something, in order to point out on it and to improve it, it's all right and you can do it. 5:37 I'm afraid even before watching this film, that this is not the case of criticism. It's the other way around. The second thing is, as you stated, Yuval of Rahm and the and the other Rana Rana show Ocho and who is involved in this movie are known as the leftist. 6:06 You know, activists inside the Judea and Samaria yesterday. We can we all have seen, I believe a YouTube movie that is running from you to there that shows their faces, show a lot of hate in the conversation with the IDF soldiers in the on the field. 6:28 And this is their point of view, point of approach to the whole system. And this movie, I'm afraid, as I as I see it, is another part of the puzzle in this old approach. 6:44 It doesn't stand alone, right? This is the second fact as I see the third one. I in the past, I was involved in the writing the answer to the Goldstone Report. 7:04 I don't know if you remember, of course, after authorities occurred during 2009, we got the Goldstone Report, Judge Goldstone Report, who blamed Israel mainly more of the same accusations. 7:24 And I was involved in writing the answer, the specific answer with the legal stuff and other stuff and diplomatic stuff to the Goldstone Report. Investigating each and every incident the Judge Goldstone pointed out on, we found out that most of the accusations were wrong. 7:50 Most, more than 95% were wrong, were false accusations without knowing the details. And we send our report. Unfortunately, Judge Goldstone didn't withdraw from his report in regard to our answers. 8:10 But several years later, four to five years later, the judge himself interviewed to one of the channels and said I was wrong, I acknowledge that my report wasn't accurate and so on. 8:25 So this is another fact. 8:27 Speaker 1 This is 2000 and eight 2009. 8:31 Speaker 2 The operation of 32 car was during 2009. 8:34 Speaker 1 Operation Cast Lead. So you say that you, you dealt with similar allegations and, and essentially fabrications. This just tells us how long this has been going on for, you know, this sort of conglomerate of the UN and NGOs and and hostile governments as well. 8:53 Speaker 2 I'm going to think about it in a in a little while where, where does it come from? But once I was involved in the investigations in to write the answer to the ghost and report, I was involved in all the procedures that the IDF has taken in order not to harm a civilian people, in order to have specific legal, you know, constrictions regarding the all operation and of course the involvement of legal stuff inside the operational activity of the IDF, right. 9:30 So I saw it, I saw how much effort was implemented into the IDF maneuvers during that time in order not to harm civilians. So I know from first hand what is the IDF notion, what is perception and what is the implementation in regarding to to it during all all years. 10:00 Speaker 1 So can we talk about that for a second? What? What is the the perception and the implementation the? 10:04 Speaker 2 Perception is that once civilian casualties can be affected, can be occurred in a in a as a result of an IDF attack, the attack is aborted cancel. 10:24 No one is going to take an attack. And I've seen in my eyes several and several attacks that were planned on the way to and was cancelled on the last minute because they thought there is a child there, a civilian, a woman, someone who's not involved and you can't improve it. 10:45 By the way, there is a lot of perception that was developed during the years how to not hurt civilian population with, you know, the Akesh Badele or Akesh Bhagal. 10:59 Speaker 1 Knock on the knock on the roof, Yeah. 11:02 Speaker 2 Yeah, knock on the roof was a warning attack. You, you attack with something that doesn't blow up. You know, something like that. That once the population inside the ear, the noise, they will fled and after a few minutes you can do whatever you do, whatever you do. 11:19 If they don't fled, you don't attack. But again, this shows us what is the notion that the IDF is coming from while implementing a military attack in a civilian, what civilians are in the neighborhood, let's say Iran. 11:40 So this is the third fact that I know of the 4th one that we can drive into it. Look who is standing behind the film. Behind the film there is the documentary wing of the Guardian, the Guardian, The Guardian. 12:01 The British Guardian is supposed to be a journalistic objective point of view who's covering the events and doesn't take a stand. Unfortunately, while doing this kind of a film improves us that the Guardian is getting away from its objective coverage of the war of Israel, of Palestinians, Israel, Palestinian relations and so on, and taking a stand. 12:37 This makes him a political wing of something not journalistic objective coverage we need to say. 12:46 Speaker 1 They've been doing that for a long time, by the way, for at least 20 years. 12:49 Speaker 2 They do it for a long time and I'm connected to it. A new fact that was published last week regarding its fellow member The New York Times. There is a survey, a comprehensive survey that was done by a professor, a distinguished professor from Yale University University that studied the New York Times coverage of the war from 7th of October 2023 till October 2024. 13:25 And the map out the number of publications. And inside that, how many times Israel was mentioned, how many times Hamas was mentioned, how many times did the coverage even addressed the Israeli population, even addressed the context of the 7th of October. 13:47 And we find out that it wasn't an objective coverage, not at all. It was in favor of the Palestinian stand of Hamas stand, let's say in Gaza. And he said it loud and clear. 14:03 And I see a strong line that connects between what I've said about the New York Times to the Guardian right now. And this is the perception of the media, of the Western media, by the way. Someone can take it and say it's deliberated because they are they are anti-Semitic and they want to Israel not to be gone. 14:27 OK, let's say this is 1 perception. The other perception can say they're not doing it against Israel, but they doing it against Israel in the notion of they are always in favor of the weak one. 14:42 Israel is percepted as the strong one and even when the 7th of October occurred, where the strong one has suffered many, many casualties and in such brutality, it doesn't fit to their perception of this colonial, strong, powerful nation that concurs the other. 15:09 And so they try to diminish it to find some, you know, obstacles and some kind of information that contradict what has happened on the 7th of October. NASA is one of them to see that. OK, this occurred, but let's see on the other side what has happened that this one is looking genocide and so this kind of stuff, which is of course not true, right? 15:36 So this is the perception of those journalistic journalists, Western one, Guardian, New York Times and others. And this implementation of it is the NASA movie. 15:51 Speaker 1 Yep. 15:52 Countering Narratives: Fauda's Success and Strategic Communication So why do you take what we have seen right now, and I put it from the tactical level to the more, let's say, geopolitical, geostrategic level? We said it here in the last podcast that we've done together. 16:12 Large part of the war of the 7th of October war, which is still continuing, large part of it is the war of influence, of perception, of what the crowd thinks. 16:31 And I think in some cases in the Western arena, let's say in the European nations, in the US, this war is even more important than the military war that we cover. 16:47 And we have to be there and we have to be there. By the way, another fact that we can state about the NASA on the on the one hand, there is the NASA film. On the other hand, there was a lot of publications during last days that the founder serious. 17:09 Yes, on Netflix, the Israeli serious that is last chapters covered the 7th of October. And what has happened alongside with it has gained a lot of viewers in the Arab countries, in Lebanon, in even in Jordan and other countries and in European countries, which means, of course, it it connects straight to a large debate that started in the social media regarding that, that say that people said over there, Hey, we didn't you. 17:52 This is really what happened. Oh, it's awful and so on. So this kind of stuff, So on the one end, you can put the Nazafil on the other end, you can put the father serious. You can see that this method of answer to the to the quad over there is even better then try to explain and to show facts and so on. 18:17 Fact is important, but I'm not saying delete it. I'm saying address to it and put it so it it would be written. But if you want to go into people's mind, you have to go through the art, right? And you have to go through the art. That's what founder serious is doing and he's very successful. 18:37 And we need more founder like this as an an answer from the Israeli side to the whole world actually. And I believe it would be very successful if it if it someone will take care of it and start produce things like it. 18:57 Speaker 1 Yeah, I totally agree. Storytelling and you know, Fowdow's number one in Lebanon, I think it's in the top five in Italy. And people who don't actually watch the news, who get their so-called news from TikTok, I think this is the audience that will turn on Netflix and watch Fowdow. 19:14 So this is basically reaching the people who cannot be reached through normal, I would say means or and not to mention the mainstream media which cannot be trusted to provide the information on the war crime that occurred to the Israeli people on October 7th. 19:31 I couldn't agree with you more that found out is is doing something which you know in many ways the Israeli government has failed to do which to set up a proper information warfare command and directorate with resources etcetera, etcetera. 19:45 Speaker 2 By the way, yeah, you're talking about where let's say influence warfare command. I think we should have chief of staff of influence as a parallel position to our chief of staff, the military one. 20:01 Speaker 1 Right. 20:02 Speaker 2 And it's, it has to be called chief of staff. And this chief of staff has to be, let's say, a producer, someone that deals with this stuff in every day and he has to go over and get, of course, the budget and to produce such serious like this and movies and something that people do, doesn't watch the news, always watch social media. 20:28 They sit in the evening and what's to to, you know, to watch a series, Netflix, they open it and this is what they gain, not at the commentary thing. Something to tell a story that you can be affected by it, you know, in your feelings. 20:44 Yes, like every serious and I think this is the best answer that we can do. 20:49 Speaker 1 Yeah, very interesting idea. Let's go back to two things regarding NASA 2 follow up questions. First of all, you know, it's interesting to me how you know, when they cite these numbers of 7073 thousand casualties in Gaza. These are numbers provided by the Hamas run Health Ministry of Gaza. 21:09 But let's let's use them because we don't have other numbers right now. According to the Israeli estimates, between 25 to 30, and it's probably at this stage more than that, it's probably going to be 35,000 of these are combatants, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad combatants who systematically use their own population as human Shields, right? 21:34 So if we take that number 25 to 30, perhaps 35,000 combatants out of 70,000, what we get is a civilian to combatant ratio that does not exceed 3 to one. It's not more than three civilians for every combatant killed in Gaza. 21:50 Now, this is in the world's most dense, populated, complex urban warfare arena where every neighborhood, every hospital, every mosque turned into a Hamas military site used to attack Israeli civilians. 22:06 Hundreds of kilometers of tunnels, some think it's more than 600 kilometers, crisscrossed the entire Gaza Strip under these areas, and all designed to limit the idea of stability to fire back. Now, when we take all of that into consideration, the idea of this being a war crime and genocide is completely ludicrous, is it not? 22:30 Speaker 2 First of all, yes, but listen, I'm listening to the old elaborated and correct response that you gave just now regarding what has happened. By the way, this is I think and one major from the US who is an expert in organic warfare says, said it. 22:53 This is the war with the most with the less civilian casualties ratio among all walls that has been done in the in the past, including those of Britain, US and everything. So he said that and he's an expert. 23:11 So your explanation must be correct. You know what the problem is? People don't don't want to listen. They don't want to listen. OK, you said. 23:21 Hamas's Human Shields and Disinformation Tactics Exposed OK, you said and you stayed alive. So they don't want to listen. You know what we have to do in order to explain what what you have did you you have given we have to make a serious or a movie with the the story of a village, OK, with some characters inside it, the father, the son, the teacher at the school, the health ministry and so on. 23:48 And you have to see the coverage and over there for the serious to explain that the teacher is not a teacher is going in the evenings to training, that the journalist is not a journalist and the Ministry of Health is anything but connected to health. 24:08 So he's not. And he doesn't have any sources to tell him what is the correct number and what is The Who is wounded and who is a casualty and what is the difference who is a military man and so on. And you have in this serious, you can see that underneath the bed of the little daughter, you hide some missiles and so on. 24:31 And this is supposed to be an epic story through Netflix to tell the story what you you've just said, not in the way you said it, but in the way that it would reach people. Not as you know, the commentary explanation, formal one that no one have to listen, but through the characters and people who will see the characters and and the story of that they hear the story and they would understand what you are telling, right. 25:05 This is the way to to address it. Everything is correct, by the way, about the journalist. I heard that Yuval, one of the producers of the of the movie said was standing on the while standing and then getting the the prize over there in the Venetian festival. 25:27 He said that I'm thanking the Palestinian journalists who gave me the information and so on. We were the those journalists, most of them, most of them were Hamas activists. We've seen Hamas already admitted in that most of them were a military activist. 25:50 So you send a journalist with his vest and so on, it's written press. But in the night he's going to military training or during his mission as a journalist, he reports backwards to the Hamas headquarters what he what he sees in the field. 26:09 So this is the way Hamas admitted. So this is your the story, the the sources you are based on when producing this film? I don't know. 26:21 Speaker 1 Right. And I also think, by the way, that, you know, for our own audience and our own, first of all, Jewish brothers and sisters in the Diaspora as well as here in Israel, they also need to be equipped with the facts. So I think it's very important to break it down as we're doing right here and right now, because they have to know the the facts quickly. 26:43 They have to be able to draw on them quickly. They cannot wait for the world to be exposed to another Netflix series. I think that it's very, very important to also break things down as they are. And even NASA is presenting itself as a documentary, not as a fiction movie. 27:03 So that brings me to my last question about. 27:05 Speaker 2 This, but I, I, I agree with you. OK, we need of course the, the details, of course they have to be written somewhere and to be delivered somehow. But I didn't see until now any infographic chart, something that would give it a quick response to, to the NASA film, something, you know, something that would stay in the people's memory as an infographic, something like that. 27:39 The people ratio that that the, you know, numbers outlined in red color and so on. Something for people to to remember. Yeah. So it's not just what you said. We, you, I don't know whom says on TV and on podcasts and so on. 27:59 It's how you deliver it in order for people to remember it. 28:03 Speaker 1 Yeah, 100%. And I think that's a failure actually of our spokespeople in their slowness to do that. It should be ready. Those those facts figures should be ready exactly for these kinds of situations. And the way that you have operational readiness, you don't know how every attack is going to show up, but you have a set of tools that you can draw on immediately and this is lacking. 28:25 This is seriously lacking, correct, Including, unfortunately, the idea of spokespersons unit, which didn't provide an initial response, which actually had some interesting information, but it was not written clearly. I had to, I found myself rewriting it on social media to highlight what they were actually saying because it was written in a way that's it was very hard to follow through to the end. 28:46 So. 28:46 Speaker 2 That's that's what, that's what happens. That's what happens. That the side was in charge of the data is not an expert of delivering mass media to people is not correct. 29:03 It's not the old ways. Today the world of the 21st century is is is another world. So you need to walk fast. You need to walk on on other vibes. And I believe that our in our industry, producers and so on, we can find someone as I stated before, who can be the Chief of staff of the influence Army, let's say that can deliver it in a better way that the idea of the. 29:30 Speaker 1 You know, the chief of staff idea is very interesting and like in the same way as operationally you have multi domain combat, you know, air, sea, land, cyber. I think that a chief of staff of an information array should be multi domain and they should be able to deal both online through as you say, a fictionalized series. 29:49 It should be multi domain because this is coming at us in every way in every direction. So I think that we have to think really big and strategically about this. Let me ask you a final question about this movie. And by the way, just to be clear, this podcast is part of my and your effort to get the truth out to people. 30:09 So this is part of of the effort to deal with the endless libels and lies. This is why we're talking about this right now. And then that's why the facts that we have discussed, I think it's critical, especially, I mean, when they come from somebody like you who was involved in the planning directorate and you who wrote responses to the Goldstone report, which Goldstone himself later disowned. 30:31 So so, you know, I think it's critical and we shouldn't undermine the importance of getting the facts out in this form as well. Now, the biggest problem I think with the NASA movie is that he they're claiming that they've got 24 military intelligence soldiers. 30:48 I very much doubt that they are all who they say they are. But at the end of the day, this is the the biggest problem that we have, I think, is this claim. They're going to say, hey, it's not us, it's people serving in military intelligence. 31:04 How would you, as a former senior IDF officer, deal with that? Who do you think these people are? Do you think that they've been tricked? Do you think that they don't know what they're talking about? What do you think we need to get out to the world regarding this specific claim? Because this is the difference between NASA and Goldstone. 31:21 NASA and previous Guardian and New York Times reports most of them didn't rely on these kinds of sources. Now they've got this sort of claim that I think we need to deal with. How would you how would you deal with that? 31:35 Speaker 2 I'll say first of all that if they are has said intelligence officers, so they must have checked who are the producers and want their initial point of view. So they knew very much to what media tool they are interviewing, OK, if it exists as as they said, so they knew, they must have knew. 32:02 And if they knew, so there is a political side to it, a political, I mean, with or without the current perception of Israel. I believe they had their disagreement. 32:19 And I believe that's wishful thinking once you are into it. So you try to, let's say, convince the facts to be appropriate for your perception. And I think that this is the, the process that has been done. 32:37 Still one word has to be said. I, I didn't watch the movie yet. I don't, I don't know if any of, of, of us watched it. So we have to watch it in order to be more precise. But as a whole, it's very difficult for me to hear that there are officers that said such such things on the IDF, especially for me as one who knows how the the IDF operates and what is the legal department involvement in each and every attack that is being done. 33:17 Of course, mistakes can happen, but for mistakes to call it a perception, A doctrine and to afterward to move over to genocide and so on. For me to there the there is a huge distance, a very huge distance and it doesn't come out come out food effects that I know. 33:41 Speaker 1 Right. And, and, and just lastly on this issue, can you break down sort of briefly for the viewers what the principles of distinction and proportionality actually mean? Because I think these are the two of the most misunderstood principles in international law and military targeting. 33:59 You know, we've got proportionality, which talks about what the risk to to collateral damage is in in proportion to the value of the military target. This is a hugely misunderstood concept and also distinction. 34:16 Can you briefly just break those down for the viewers? 34:21 Speaker 2 Yeah, we first of all, proportionality is very important because you consider first of all the collateral damage that can be done if you attack someone who is around civilian population. 34:42 Even I can say that as far as I know, in the past, several attacks were aborted because there wasn't no opportunity for the person with important as as as it can be was was around the civilians and the collateral damage was expected to be very high. 35:03 And the idea for bolted operations like it so. But once you have, let's say, a very important target and around it, there are only two civilians, OK, 2 as a, as a number, I believe small, very small number of civilians. 35:24 So you try to find what the civilians, if they are children, of course not. But if there are the civilians are people around it that you don't know exact what. So I believe there is a decision to be made and this is a regarding to the IDF. 35:43 Speaker 1 Because if the strike is not conducted, right, if the strike is not conducted, that means that Israeli civilians will be at risk, right? That's the dilemma here. 35:51 Speaker 2 Just a minute. And yeah, the the other way around is the IDF can improve the opportunity, try to, to try to drive this person out of the civilian environment that is inside and to have the opportunity to attack him. 36:12 Then we have to understand the Hamas is not, let's say, a peaceful, loving organization. The Hamas attacks each and every day before the 7th of October. 36:28 Civilian population. the Rockets fired at Israeli cities are aimed to affect and to hurt civilian population. the Rockets fired at the settlements around Gaza are implemented to kill civilians. 36:44 And what has happened on the 7th of October was aimed towards civilians. Towards military bases, of course, but towards civilians. The most of the Nochba, the Hamas activists over there went to civilian settlements and took people out of their beds while doing massacre and so on. 37:08 So it no, wasn't military against military, it was something else. And as we see Hamas, by the way, as well as Hezbollah, as well as Iran, all of these states are hiding inside civilian population. 37:27 Why is that? In order to make the IDF not to attack, this is the first thing, and once attacked he can present it as a massacre and as a genocide and so on, as he did during this war. Right? So we are not speaking about an innocent peace loving organization. 37:49 This is the most worst of our enemies as we saw on the 7th of October. 37:54 Speaker 1 Yeah. And so that you know that it's a very interesting that you say that because that leads me to the conclusion that films like NASA and all of those who basically validate the human shielding tactics of Hamas are serving Hamas's goal. This is warfare through other means. 38:10 It's designed to paralyze us, delegitimize us, isolate us and prevent us from defending ourselves. This is. 38:18 Speaker 2 By the way, by the way, if you, if you examine the Hamas war against Israel, you will see that most of the activity of Hamas during the last war wasn't the military one. They hide, they hide in the tunnels, they hide among civilians once and for all. 38:37 They they went out and tried to kill someone and go back to the tunnels. But most of the war was warfare on the trying to influence the crowd in the Western states, in Europe, in the US. 38:55 And for some, for some time they succeeded, yes, during 2024. And then we, we, we, let's say we had some winnings in this arena. 39:13 But right now they're trying to, you know, that they don't have other means in their, in their basket, especially not military means in order to operate. So they're trying to have the warfare again. And they had the warfare of, let's say, of people starving to death in Gaza, which was proven not to be right. 39:36 And now they have this one of genocide. They're coming back to it every few months. They're coming back to it. And right now, this film serves them. 39:45 Speaker 1 100% I think that's a great way to frame frame that that topic. 39:50 Geopolitical Shifts: Iran's Crisis and Saudi Arabia's Choice So in the time that we have left to meet, let's jump to some of the major arenas because I'd love to get your updated take on what's going on. Let's start with the head of the snake, which is Iran. It seems to be that Iran is pretty desperate right now because it's under a chokehold. 40:06 The Americans, the CENTCOM, the blockade seems very effective. They're not through the sea, exporting any oil, any gas, maybe a little bit through the land, through Pakistan, but it seems to be pretty minor. The economic situation in the Islamic Republic looks catastrophic. 40:22 They just doubled fuel prices for heavy users, heavy fuel consumers. You know, the real is off the charts. It's worth over $2,000,000. Inflation is anywhere between 80 to 300%. This is a regime that looks like it's in very serious trouble. 40:39 They're lashing out and they're getting American sort of tit for tat responses at the same time. But unfortunately regionally, it seems that their their bet on the the Houthi proxies seems to have paid off because here we see the Houthis taking over the Yemeni coastline Bab El Mandeb which is the Red Sea. 41:01 And we saw Iraqi militias strike the Saudi East West pipeline which feeds into the Red Sea, which was supposed to bypass both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El Mandeb Strait. If people want to look on a map, you you'll be able to see that actually this this ability of Saudi Arabia to get oil and gas through this pipeline is land pipeline to the middle of the Red Sea and then exported through the Suez Canal. 41:32 That was their big bet about about bypassing the Iranian chokehold. So we see that they're making somewhat of a comeback, but they still seem to be in very, very serious trouble. And Israel has been left out of the fighting. The Iranians are are attacking, you know, left, right and center in the region, not touching Israel. 41:50 And Israel is telling basically everybody, but especially the Iranian leadership, if they fire a single missile or drone at us, all bets are off. The targets that Israel's going to hit are not the targets that we've seen before, national infrastructure targets, strategic targets. 42:05 The goal will be to topple the regime. So with that situation pretty much in place, how do you view the current situation vis A vis Iran? 42:17 Speaker 2 I was surprised, Bill, and I will tell you it from another angle to look at it. I think what is happening right now with Bab Al Mandab is good for Israel, not bad. And I'll explain, first of all, what has happened, what is happening with Iran, The inside arena in Iran, I don't know if you remember, but we spoke about it two or three podcasts ago. 42:46 Well, no one else talked about it. People were concentrated only on the military aspects of the war. And I said that the economic aspect is more important. And this is what will affect the Iranian regime more, more than any military attack. 43:07 Yep. Right now President Trump is speaking about it and the old world is speaking about the inside arena in Iran. And I'm, I'm glad about it. I think this is the way to end the Iranian regime, by the way, the Hamas regime as well, and Hizbullah in Lebanon as well on the same method. 43:25 This is the way the military is good. It has to be done, but it has a specific limit, Yeah, you cannot go through and only affecting the civilian population will get us. 43:41 Some would call it the victory. I don't call it the victory. I call it, you know, an achievement, a huge achievement of of this war. So this is so this is the first, the first thing what is happening today in Iran is I, I would say I think that was we didn't see before and I compare it to the end of the Shah regime during 79 and there wasn't any economic problem over there. 44:16 There was some economic problems that bizarre merchants and so on. But again, the depression of the regime and so on is very similar to what is happening today. And every day we hear about a new commitment to death in the Iranian prison of the one who protests during the beginning of the year. 44:39 We hear about properties that the Iranian regime takes from the families of these detectives. Yep. We hear about lack of water, lack of electricity and so on. 44:54 And in my eyes, what is important that they started already speaking about the coming winter, you know, like a Lord of the Rings, winter is coming, OK, Winter is coming. 45:09 And they they would not have any gas to heat the houses. And the Ministry of Energy of the Iranian ministry already said it. Yep. So the, the problems inside Iran are deepening and I think the regime knows it and he's very afraid of it. 45:28 The answer for it can be deriving the effort outwards during military to military escalation and so on in order to, you know, to, to get the attention out of what is happening in the military arena to, to outside. 45:46 It can be done. Now what Iran is doing right now, the main Stingray of the of the Iranian, the main sting of the Iranian strategy was almost, Yep, they said OK. On the military side, we are lacking abilities and capabilities in comparison to the US. 46:09 What we can do is take the hormone straight and affect the world economy in order to have a pressure on the US to stop the war. That's what the that was the Iranian vision. 46:25 Right now the the US has succeeded in opening the Ormus Trey. And while I said opening, it's not that the Iranian don't have any more missiles or fast boats and so on. 46:41 What the US has done that during the last four months, they worked very hard in order to open or to clean out of mind the line that is very close to the Omanian coastline. 46:57 And they try and they succeed in getting out of this, in this line some, let's say a large number of ships during the day and in on the parlor and on the other side, they tried and managed to hurt the Iranian capabilities to see what is happening in the Persian Gulf. 47:23 So the Iranian don't see right now what is happening. Once they have an Intel regarding a ship, they fire like we see, but they don't see all, especially 80% of the ships they don't see. 47:38 So the ships are going from the inside of the Persian Gulf to the to the outside. They are shutting off the AIS, the G, the GPS transmitters so no one can see where where they are. 47:59 And on the Armanian coast outside of Ormus, they delivered the oil to large scale ships which are going to the Eastern Asia. This is the procedure and the Americans are quite this is working well, not 100%, but 90 between 80 to 90%. 48:22 OK, now they're trying to with the help of the hoodies, of course, to close down the bubble Manda 2 remarks regarding that. First of all, Bubble Manda is isn't Hormuz. 48:37 Regarding the world economy in Bubble Manda, before the war they were let's say between 55 to 7680 ships during a day from the beginning of the war, when the Houthis got inside joined the war, the number of ships going over the bubble Manda straight during a day has diminished to 20 ships. 49:06 That's it. Wow. So one can understand that the Babel Mandab is not so important to the world economy. The shipping companies has managed to get around the Cape of Gudo and to do everything in the route that around Africa and not use the Red Sea. 49:30 Of course it has a huge implement. Let's say it affects mainly Egypt and the Suez Canal. 49:40 Speaker 1 Right. 49:41 Speaker 2 So this is the state. So Babel Manda is not like Hormuz, not at all. The second thing that has to be said the Houthis said it themselves that one of the first phone calls that they pick up after getting the coastline of Babel Mandalba straight was to call as as the reported to the US and said, hey, we are letting everyone to go through the Babel Mandalb straits with no Commission. 50:16 What was will continue and accept one kind of ships Saudi ships right, that's it. So one wants to go through can, can do it, not any threat, allegedly, you know, Yeah, what is what the bubble Manda effects mainly is Saudi Arabia, right? 50:41 And Saudi Arabia for the first time is facing a large scale attack from Iran. It was first from Iran and now it's with the help of the Houthis, of course, which is an Iranian proxy. 50:59 Yep, a direct attack even from Iraq. The world attack of Iranian militias towards Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia is in some kind of a siege right now and a siege which was enhanced during two days ago while attacking the pipeline that goes from the eastern Saudi Arabia to the western Saudi Arabia to Yanbuapo to the Red Sea. 51:27 And from there they tried to export the Saudi oil to Eastern Asia. And right now they have a problem. They cannot do it. 51:36 Speaker 1 Right. 51:37 Speaker 2 So it mainly effects Saudi Arabia. Now the question is what Saudi Arabia will do. What we see today is that Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi ruler is going to visit Egypt and to try to, you know, to maybe to come together to some kind of solution of two states who are mainly affected from from Babel, Manda, allegedly close closure by the Houthis. 52:10 I don't believe that any solution, you know, actual solution will come out of there. And now Saudi Arabia has to get off the fence which set on it. And Saudi Arabia has a lot of time a problem regarding normalization with Israel. 52:31 You know what leave normalization with Israeli side regarding the iMac, the the iMac corridor with Saudi Arabia is a very important member inside it. And they said to the President Trump a few times, no, we don't want right. 52:46 And Trump is furious on on that, by the way, in contradiction to other reports in Israel and the Western media, which is the Saudi Arabian ruler is my body, my friend, all false. 53:02 It's not true. And Trump is furious on them. He's so furious that right now he answered the report said that the Saudi ruler called twice to the US asking for her. And the answer of Trump was basically, hey, go to your Turkish and Pakistanian friends which you signed of them on Mecca agreement. 53:30 Have a good luck with your efforts, right? So now, now Saudi Arabia is some in some kind of a siege. It cannot stand it for a long time and it has to choose if it want to open the siege. It has to come to Israel and to the US and say, OK, in Hebrew it says Otani, I want OK, I'm ready. 53:58 Once they said it, I believe everything will change. And this is the beginning of a new order in the Middle East. So as I see it, the siege for right now, OK, it affects mainly Saudi Arabia, unfortunately, by the way, we didn't want to we don't want it to come to the to this area. 54:17 Saudi Arabia can can chose, can make it can choose before you know, Yeah, and said and and I believe much of this war was full all all the way to the end right now. 54:35 But because of Saudi Arabia, we had several delays and right now it has to choose again. So we have to feel what what is going to happen so. 54:45 Speaker 1 Essentially, the Iranians and their and their access have pushed or pushing the Saudis into our arms. What do you think that we should demand, that Israel should demand back from Saudi Arabia in exchange for help? 55:01 And what kind of help do you envisage that Israel can give them without getting entangled with the Houthis ourselves? 55:09 Speaker 2 Look, it's more, it's more than a help. The Saudi Arabia has a, as I say, a failure in the perception. They thought that Pakistan would help them, the Turkey with Ardo and the great Sultan will help them. 55:25 They thought that Now they're thinking maybe Egypt and they thought that the Palestinian, once they waved the Palestinian flag all over around, it would gain them points. And everyone would love to see Saudi Arabia And what they're finding out right now that they have no friends. 55:43 There is no friends in a real politic. Once you come to, you know, to, to, to the world. Now you have to decide who, who will come to help you. And if you want to help, apparently you can rely on the US and Israel, which are the only counterparts of you right now. 56:08 But there is a price you have to pay. So this is this is the perception now what Israel can gain for it. Look, I don't know what Saudi Arabia wants. I always try to look at Saudi Arabia, not only on the political level as a normal state. 56:29 There is a large theological perception of the Saudi Arabians who is against the Jews, not only Israel. OK, it's saying about the Mohammad and koriation and Medina and Mecca. 56:45 It's not, you know, it's not an incident, an innocent incident that the agreement with the Turkey and Pakistan called Mecca, why doesn't it called Riyadh agreement like Islamabad? 57:02 Speaker 1 Holy City, the holiest city in Islam. 57:04 Speaker 2 Yeah. So the Mecca is a statement, and this is the statement. This is the Saudi Arabia's perception, which is a theological. So I don't think once they came, come and say I want OK, I, I accept, accept all your conditions and so on, that suddenly there will be a change from black to white and so on. 57:27 It doesn't occur. 57:28 Speaker 1 Not normalization tomorrow, yeah. 57:31 Speaker 2 Yeah, it has to be a process and the theological manner, at least for me, is a threat right now and we have to see how to address it. Why? Why is what is? Well as to to say, first of all, ask the Saudi ruler to have Netflix back at home and screen fodder. 57:56 That's the first thing. 57:57 Speaker 1 I like how you're tying everything together. 57:59 Speaker 2 Yeah, the second thing is to speak about the Saudi Arabia education system. The first thing it has to be shown, the Saudi ruler has to come to here, has to come to Israel to visit. 58:15 It's a statement and other things that can show that it's going to be that there is a change and we have to get Saudi Arabia from the double voice that it used all throughout the years saying somewhat something else above the table and beneath the table, all is well and so on. 58:38 No, this has to be stopped in the Middle East. This is something that is connected to the old order. And right now we are working on a new order. One of the new order basics is not to speak in a double voice anymore. 58:55 So this is what Israel has to has to say. And Israel has to offer Saudi Arabia a lot of things from intelligence on the military manner to technology, agriculture, water and and everything. 59:12 OK. So Saudi Arabia has to want and has to diminish its theological aspect to the minimum level as as they need. 59:24 Speaker 1 Very, very interesting analysis there. I've got two final questions for this, for this episode of Meat. 1 is a grand strategic question, and the other one is about the Gaza Strip. So let me start with the grand strategic 1. You said that Saudi Arabia is going to have to understand that it can only count on Israel and the United States. 59:44 Now, I agree with you about Israel. I have questions myself about the United States, not because of the past year or two years, when when actually the Trump administration assisted and took part in in major, major strikes against Iran, the head of the snake. 1:00:03 But I'm thinking long term, right? We don't know where the American elections are going, the midterms, the presidential elections in 2 1/2 years. And there are quite a few people here in Israel and in the region and I'm sure in Riyadh as well and Saudi Arabia who are saying, well, what happens if the isolationists or the ultra progressives rise to power in the US? 1:00:23 Doesn't that change? Everything. Do you think that we're ready for that kind of scenario? I'll start with that and then we'll get to Gaza for the conclusion. 1:00:32 Speaker 2 First of all, what you are saying that we have to, to hurry to hurry up, OK, We have to, to do everything fast, although Trump did some things very fast, but we need to press on the on the gas and to do, to do a more speedy way of, of achievements. 1:00:57 And I believe we are close to it regarding Iran. And once Iran is the regime is going to fall, I believe something else will be seen here from the other end. You have to see Saudi Arabia doesn't have any choice, right? 1:01:13 One of the big achievements of Kissinger, the foreign minister of of the US during the 70s wasn't the Israeli, Egyptian agreements and so on. This wasn't David what what he achieved most and based the Pax Americana, the American dominance in the world was the oil agreements that he comes out to sign with Saudi Arabia, the AIPAC, which stated that the currency that will conquer the world is the American dollar. 1:01:50 And once Saudi Arabia is all invested in the American dollar and it doesn't have any way to get out of it. So this is the US, this is its benchmark. This is the you know, this is its back. It cannot change to Russia right in a minute, even if she won't. 1:02:12 So I think that the both both of the things are tied together. We should be more speedy in our demands from the Saudi Arabia and I think we are coming to it. Saudi Arabia has to come out from come down from the fence and to decide and if it decides correctly, I think a lot of benefits would come out out of it. 1:02:38 I just the one thing to state neon the future city project of Saudi Arabia was cancelled lately. This is a large statement. This says that Saudi Arabia doesn't have enough money not in the currencies, the reserves they don't have here in the bank, you know, in the everyday life enough money to implement this project. 1:03:06 And I mentioned to everyone, this is Saudi Arabia, the great money wasn't anyone any problem for them for the years. And right now Qatar and Saudi Arabia are suffering from lack of say regular money, not the one that is in currencies. 1:03:28 And this is another thing that enhance the siege that they are into it right now. 1:03:35 Speaker 1 Right. And in Qatar's case, I think that can only be good news. 1:03:38 Decisive Victory: Separating Gazans from Hamas Rule Let me bring you up to Gaza for our concluding analysis. Tell me what you think is going on there. Because look, at the tactical level. There's not a day that goes by that the IDF is not eliminating Hamas battalion commanders. A brigade commander was eliminated in recent days, the head of Hamas's internal security, through a very daring Shin Bet raid, which started to remind me a little bit of Area A of Judea and Samaria of the West Bank, localized special force operation rather than big divisions. 1:04:10 But still, we're kind of stuck. There's a static affront. Hamas is not going to disarm. I think that's pretty obvious to those of us who know it's doctrine. But they're trying to buy time. And you said that we need to hurry up because we we are operating according to a timeline, at least, you know, from from the Washington perspective that we want to have backing for our for what remains of, of the war. 1:04:34 So what do you think is going on there? And do you think that there's any way to get this arena unstuck? 1:04:43 Speaker 2 First of all, I don't think we are stuck. 1:04:46 Speaker 1 OK. 1:04:47 Speaker 2 I think that the stock is in the eyes of one who wants to see an agreement, wants to see a withdrawal, want to see Hamas out of the of the Gaza Strip and so on, which means black or white. 1:05:05 We are now in the in the Gray zone, the Gray zone said. And what you stated about the every day we hear about the IDF managed to kill this and that and so on from Hamas leaders, Of course, this is the war going on still. 1:05:24 We are not in some kind of an MOU right now that say Israel is conducting an everyday war against Hamas leaders, right? It's very, very important. Those leaders are in charge of the rehabilitation, yes, building Gaza again and they cannot do it. 1:05:43 Those leaders are in charge of new planning to go to the Otef Gaza, to settlements around Gaza and so on. And they are not right now. They're afraid of their life and those youth successes. 1:05:59 I, I, I just remind you in the past, one success like it one day, one success like it, we have, you know, headlines in the newspapers and Israel succeeded to do that, this and that. 1:06:16 And what will Hamas do in a response? And now it's like every day, you know? 1:06:23 Speaker 1 How quickly we've gotten used to the new improved reality. 100%, yeah. 1:06:28 Speaker 2 So this is the new reality. So we are not stuck. The war is still going on in other way, right. It's not thanks against thanks. It's US against the main leaders of Hamas. 1:06:43 And eventually he will stay with the medium level slash children or you know, just the youth getting a bit on. It's not the generation that has a lot of experience from the past and we see the change of the face of the organization right now. 1:07:09 What we have to do in order to achieve the greater goal is to take the population out of Hamas rule. That's it. And I'm saying it from the the very first day of the war for the population, Hamas is getting richer because of the taxes, because of the population. 1:07:36 He has the perception around the world that is still governing Gaza because of the population. He can get new personnel to recruit new personal youth, children and so on to his forces and to fill out the lines. 1:07:57 So this is the main problem and if you can drive Hamas out of there because there is population and so on. So take the population and take it out. According to last surveys, as stated before Palestinian surveys, they want to get out. 1:08:14 They want. So there is one to get out to Raffia area, to build over there, the tents city, the green city, which is called by the peace government, the peace council to build over the a lot of tents and so on, and to take the people out of there, giving humanitarian aid and so on. 1:08:37 And everything is good. The other way or in parliament is to open the gates from Gaza to the world full of full Canon Shalom and to take populate whoever wants and has the money and their abilities and succeed in getting a visa. 1:08:54 You can go out. It's OK. So this is what my idea about how to succeed in the war against Hamas. We have a lot of success right now. I believe it's a process. But if you want, we want to do it in a most speedy way. 1:09:13 As we stated, we have to do it right now and to take the population out of Hamas rule. I think this is the most decisive act that can be done against Hamas. The population will go, will go out because they don't want to see Hamas as the ruler. 1:09:31 They want to see Hamas as their defence, holding arms against Israel. That's the theological part. But regarding every day-to-day life, they don't want to see Hamas as a ruler and they would like to get out of there. 1:09:47 And finally, we can get to the state that if the population has gone out from Hamas hands, then Hamas will be, let's say. 1:09:58 Speaker 1 Marginal. 1:09:59 Speaker 2 Unmeaningful. 1:10:00 Speaker 1 Yes. 1:10:01 Speaker 2 Less important and soon to be getting out of Gaza to other ways, even without a single shot file. 1:10:11 Speaker 1 Right. And and just briefly, you know, you mentioned the new Rafah and building there, but we're looking at, you know, 2 million Gazans, right? So what I mean, there was an idea before the war was actually championed by my, my friend Benjamin Anthony. 1:10:26 He called it the new state solution. And he essentially said that Israel should call on Egypt even if Egypt says no. But as a diplomatic push to basically lease out land in northern Sinai, to extend Gaza South and then to bring in like a port in the Sinai and massive investment from the Gulf and all over the world. 1:10:49 And that would give Gazans sort of new space. And actually now that I'm thinking about it, you know, from a post war perspective, move them away from northern Gaza where if they were turned with Hamas, that would pose a huge threat to his Delotte and Nakhalos and the Gaza border communities. 1:11:07 But to actually extend the Gaza as a as a territorial entity S into northern Sinai. Now, of course, Egypt's not going to agree to this. We know what the atmosphere in Egypt is. But as a sort of diplomatic posture which would put Egypt on the defensive and at least give Israel some sort of diplomatic initiative. 1:11:27 Do you think there is any logic in promoting this idea or is it a total non starter? Just briefly interested in your take on this. 1:11:36 Speaker 2 First of all, let's say right now Egypt is in a problem. We spoke about the Red Sea. Yep. 1:11:41 Speaker 1 Exactly. 1:11:42 Speaker 2 Egypt wants help from the US, from Israel. OK, there is a price to pay. Open Rafael. That's the first thing. The second thing regarding the idea. The idea is good, but one to the one who knows the Egyptians how they think must realize that although geographically and economically it sounds great and this is an island and everything is good, you have to understand how the Egyptian regime thinks. 1:12:16 He sees in the Muslim Brotherhood, which is mainly most of the people in Gaza who are in touch with Hamas are Muslim Brotherhood. And the Egyptians see the Muslim Brotherhood as an as a huge threat to their national security and they cannot do it or not on the theological part, not on the military part, not on the defence part, not on the economical part. 1:12:44 Egypt has not enough money to pay and to feed the mouse inside Egypt itself along the night. So Egypt won't do it. What Egypt can be, can can deliver, it can deliver. 1:13:03 It can be the bridge between Gaza to other places in the world, in Africa, Europe, whatever. I don't know. I, I very much believe and hope that people are working on solutions to that. 1:13:20 But it can be done. I don't see it as you know, as something out of the normal Gaza was not along the is a sacred place with the monuments from the past and so on. And it's not, it's a piece of land that people set over there and came over there and the Bedouin mainly it's not. 1:13:42 So I believe on the first stage we can drive people to Rafah area, which is inside Gaza, and the main goal is to take people out of Hamas regime. The next step, one, whoever wants can get out. 1:14:00 That's OK. You want to have rights in Gaza written by your name, that's OK too. You have rights here, you get the document and so on and you can go out. 1:14:12 Speaker 1 When you say right, you mean that would give them the ability to come back if they want to come back? 1:14:16 Speaker 2 They can have the ability to come back. That's what by the way, the US said in the, you know, in the Kushner project, it was tended. But you know, once who sees the outside world and enjoy the beauty of other cities and other places. 1:14:35 I don't know if they want to come back to to the tents of Gaza soon. By the way, on the objective manner, Gaza is not worthy for for life right now. 1:14:50 There there is a a huge construction site that I believe it will take between 5 to 10 years to build, to build it over again if they want and between 5 to 10 years. 1:15:06 People cannot stay over there objectively, meaning they can live intense. I believe they would go out if they want, but the main idea is not getting them out. The main idea is getting them out of the Hamas regime and this is the, this is the, I believe the key to decisive, have a decisive victory in this, in this front in Hamas area. 1:15:36 Speaker 1 We're going to have to cap it at this stage. I could keep going with you, Amit. I have so many other issues that I wanted to bring up, but we're going to wait till next time. So thank you so much for your insights as always, interesting, different and in depth. And I think you offer a very, very unique worldview which is very valuable and important. 1:15:56 So thank you so much for sharing that with me and the viewers, and I look forward to our next episode. 1:16:02 Speaker 2 Thank you, me too.