Every Player You MUST START In Week 3 Fantasy Football (Part 2)

This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online makes sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up require compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. Before this. [SCREAMING] There's this. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots. The people grow in the grass. They've in the lots, weld in the goalposts, inspecting every football. The hardworking people to make every Sunday possible. Carhartt is proud to outfit the crews behind the game. Visit carhard.com/jointhetrades to learn more. This episode is brought to you by TXU Energy. For the first time ever, Texans have an energy plan that combines free nights all year with daytime summer savings. It's called Free Nights in Cool Summer. You get free nights every night all year long. Plus a 25% bonus toward your daytime use all summer. It's a first of its kind plan, created for how Texans actually use energy. Discover how much more you could save with Free Nights in Cool Summer. TXU Energy, energy for everything. Visit TXU.com for more information, rep #1004. - So I got your care package, by the way. - I didn't send you a care package, did I? - Yeah, you did, bro. - Oh yeah, what was it? - Some flowers, some perfume. (beep) - So like in chess, like the AI is gonna beat Magnus Carlson, like 99 times at a 100, if not 100 times. - By the way, Magnus Carlson has never lost the AI, just so you're aware. It's 53-0, 53-0. - Really? - Yeah. - How many times do you lose to the guy with the butt plug? (beep) - All right, should we get moving? - Yep. - You ready? (clears throat) - Here we go. You know what I need from you, Scott? Moving forward. It's like when I do first read, Joe always gives me a primer. (beep) - Magnus Carlson cannot beat stockfish in an even standard game of chess, ELO different stockfish is rated over 4,000, which is roughly 800 points higher than Carlson's peak human rating of around 2882. - He's 53-0, I'm telling you. - AI says you're wrong, but then again, maybe AI is just going to bat for its buddies. - Yeah, I mean, I watch Magnus Carlson. - AI is better than humans. (beep) - Who was the chess player with a butt plug? - Allegedly. - Yeah, it was Hans Neiman. - It was Hans Neiman. (beep) (upbeat music) - Week three, start here on Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. This is the second part of our two parts series. We're going game by game. We're starting with the 4 p.m. slate today. Before we dive in though, Scott, do you ever just wake up and just counter blessing? Just be like, dude, I get to talk about football for a living. - Oh, is that awesome? - Yeah, it's the best job, is it not? - Yeah, it's so sick. - It's so cool. - I get to do this show with you, my pal, my business partner, but also my real life friend, like this is just awesome. Like life, who's got a better than us, you know? - I had some amazing. - Yeah, it's the best, so. - I don't even have anything sarcastic to say, it's just, it's so much fun. - Yeah, good, good, I didn't want you to. Hey, listen, if you're a returning subscriber, you already know what makes this the best Fantasy Football Channel on the planet. Make sure you hit the like button. Yes, the best, we're the best, you say this every show. It's the best, we're helping you win Fantasy Leagues every single day. Click the like button, reply. Tell us your favorite moment of the show. Tell us things you think we're gonna prove on. We do like the feedback. That's how we landed on this Game by Game Start Sit breakdown was your feedback. We are men of the people. So make sure you're doing that. If you're new here, what, you're something-- - And listen, listen, we're doing something special for you. Your toughest start, sit decision of the week. I want you to be in the YouTube comments, not the Spotify comments, the YouTube comments. Leave us with your toughest start, sit, match up question of the week. We will answer it. You'll get blessed by the Fantasy Points Fairy himself, Matt Donnelly, who'll use our projections, which were the most accurate projections in the industry last year. And of course they were. They come from Fantasy Points data, the best, most accurate data, totally exclusive to us in the NFL business. And then yeah, we use those projections to return a 60 plus percent win rate on props to-- we've had a different subscriber win a million dollars on draft kings playing DFS in three straight years. And so yeah, we're going to use those projections to either give you the most confidence when making your decisions this week, or will be your scapegoat in case we got it wrong. You can blame us, you can get mad at us. So leave us a reply or a comment on the YouTube. And we'll bless you with a response. Awesome. Let's dive in. So we're start with the 4 p.m. slate here. Arizona at San Francisco. We got a spread of eight and a half. It looks like you deleted my over-unders in the show sheet, Scott. So thank you for that. Oh, but no worries. You can see on the screen, we got our start sets. But from a schematic standpoint, I want to just hit the San Francisco offense first. Scott, Arizona is one of the craziest defensive matchups I've seen. They basically live in too high. They're playing too high at the second highest rate in the league. But they also play a ton of base coverage. And in that base, they're going to have a linebacker on the field who absolutely cannot cover. And on top of that, they're two best corners this week. Will Johnson. Sorry, they're three best corners. Will Johnson, Max Melton and Garrett Williams all ruled out for this game. Will Johnson actually went on to the IR yesterday. And so this is a situation where I just don't see this defense being able to hang with San Francisco at all. I think schematically like Debo Samuel probably is the best one for one matchup. But they're all starts as you can see on the screen. If Mike Evans checks out healthy, I know he was a DNP yesterday at practice. But if he does practice and he plays in this game, he's also a start to me. I don't see a world where Arizona can contend with the San Francisco passing attack. So this is like a heavenly matchup. No corners. They're going to play a ton of base. They live in too high. Debo and George Kiddell underneath should just eat all day long. Yeah, so you mentioned the base defense. So since the start of last season, Josh Allen averages 0.58 fantasy points per dropback. Brock Perty against base defense is at 0.87. Major advantage for Brock Perty. And then you said the too high coverage. So downstream from that, that's a significant boost to Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. McCaffrey, Debo and Kiddell to me, but-- Well, of course, yeah. But against too high, CMC's target per route run goes from 0.21 to a team high, 0.31 target share jumps from 16% to 26%. Debo Samuel also historically better against too high coverage. George Kiddell actually, not true. He struggles against too high coverage. His target per route run drops by 25%. He did go off last week. He had 80 yards in a touchdown on just 12 routes. But the route share, controlling for the blowout, so you remove the fourth quarter. You had just a 57% route share. So they're really kind of taking their time, easing him back to full responsibilities, full workload. But still, you see here, this 49er's offense looks like an absolute wagon. Brock Perty's a top three quarterback for us. And if that sounds kind of crazy for you, consider this stat. Or consider how much more pleasant my life would be right now, Brett, if I had made Brock Perty who-- I might be Brock Perty's biggest fan. And since he came out, Brock Perty's biggest fan. Instead, I made Malik Willis the exodia quarterback. Life would have been so much easier. Brock Perty, since the start of last season, ranks behind only Josh Allen in fantasy points per game. Leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback. So not only is he a really underrated real life NFL quarterback, he's a great fantasy quarterback as well. Christian McCaffrey, obviously, I think the concerns about the Kalen Black split week one were overblown. He had cramping in that game. It was in Australia. But he ranked top five in XFP last week, despite only playing one snap in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Kalen Black has had zero of the backfield opportunities inside the 10 yard line. Christian McCaffrey has had five of five. So yeah, he is an easy RB one. George Kiddell, even with the limited route participation, still a low end tight end one. If he was back to his full usage, he would probably be mid-range, high end tight end one, but tight end at eight, I feel good about that. And then you have Debo Samuel, Mike Evans, both as fringe wide receiver twos. What's going on here with Evans is he's dealing with this hip injury. It seems like he's okay, but they did yank him from that game early, because the game was over relatively quickly. And so I think we see him, it's tough, because no dejonce tripling, no de Marcus Robinson, they might not really have the luxury of playing anyone else all that much, but still the concern that he sees fewer routes than a debo, same like I think is warranted. So have them both as fringe wide receiver twos this week. Make sure you pay attention Sunday mornings, you know, what is Jay Glazer saying before kick off? What is Adam Schaefter, Ian Rappaport saying before kick off, but right now on a Friday, fringe wide receiver two on both. The nerd in me wants you to rewind a little bit to the George Kiddeltalk. You said he hasn't performed well against too high. How long is that sample you're citing? So it's not that he didn't perform well. It's that he saw a decrease in targets per route run. I'd have to check my notes, it's either since the start of last season or the year before that. Okay. That's really interesting because schematically like any time we catch a team that's in too high, we want the tight end on the opposing offense. It's just that's where you get those mismatches. You're getting your tight end against the linebacker. You're getting your tight end in space, you know, for these catch and run opportunities. That's what Kiddelt's amazing at. Shocking to hear that. Honestly. Could it be more chip blocking something to do with his past. It's possible. It's possible. It's that it could just be a tendency thing where like Purdy likes Debo in the situations or likes McCaffrey in the situations or, you know, rewind the last year, whoever they had planned. It's possible just that also Kiddelt missed a good chunk of last year, right? With the Achilles. And he also played some with Mac Jones who wasn't sure getting him as frequently. True. Yeah. Could just be a random tendency thing that you picked up on, but it's since the start of last season. Yeah. So I can, I can look at a win all done, hold on. No, it's over the last three seasons. Okay. It's a fairly robust sample. That's definitely sticky, then. Yeah. Yeah. So I would expect Debo to eat. I like Debo, even if Evans is healthy, I think I like Debo more than, more than Evans and this one. Whoa. Yeah. Just because of the schematics. Yeah. Plus, you know what's concerning though, the hip, the hip with Evans, it, hips and hamstrings go hand in hand, right? Because when you have a hamstring, you, you change your gait, you end up blowing out your hip. I literally just did this this summer playing soccer, had a light hamstring issue, turned into a hip issue. It, it, it is what it is, but I, I just think, I mean, you, you're the one who has been gasped in a Debo. You changed my mind on him. He's a, a bi-low candidate, he's a waver, priority waver, waver, waver add. Yeah. I mean, like, I, I'm all in now and he's got the literal nuts schematic matchup for, to go off in this game. So, Arizona, let's talk then. I think this is actually a good bounce back spot for Arizona's offense. They've been rough, you know, the 49ers have played two absolute cupcakes on defense and I know that defense looks really good on paper right now. I'm telling you, they're not, there's some, there's some other metrics. I look at, like, I, I really value pressure rate and pass rush win rate. Win rate, why is that such a tongue twister? They're, they're bottom of the, you just did it. You just did it. You slurred it. The R, the rush win combo, it creates like a little slur. It's weird. But pass rush win rate and pressure rate. It would be like for rush win rate. Yeah. That, that, that's really low. Zero. Did he go like 6 and 0 one year as a cowboy starter or something like that? I do, he's soft, he's just flicky, you know, just kind of a wagon. Parsons in his prime, CD lamb in his prime kind of thing. Uh, anyways, I, so I like Arizona's offense. I'm not saying starch, it could be brisket, but I do think he has a nice bounce back. And I really think this is a get right spot for Michael Wilson, like big time. What's that you, I know we're not, we're, we're projecting in wide receiver 39. So I'm deferring from the script a little bit, but I have to say my take. So, um, yeah, I think I, I, Jacobi presets pretty low here, um, for a guy who I think has finished as a top 12 fantasy quarterback and something like 12 of his 15 starts with the Cardinals, something like that. And we have him barely a QB two. Um, yeah, I don't know. The 49ers defense looks amazing with, with Fred Warner back, um, making some insane plays. But like you said, it was the, the Rams like rolled off the, the plane and right to the stadium, like super jet lagged. And then you get the Miami dolphins. Uh, so, you know, maybe, maybe this isn't the world's best defense, which honestly would be awesome for the 49ers skill position players. Uh, Jeremiah love. He's in a gross 50, 50 committee with Tyler Algier, um, he has 20 carries to Algiers, 22. He has three more targets. Um, I, I think it, it's only a matter of time until Jeremiah loves seizes the backfield, whether that's 60% or 70% remains to be seen. But right now week three, I, I feel good about this fringe, RB two ranking trademark bride. Bro is freaking incredible. Um, people want to know why he wasn't like a priority target for me and drafts. And it's really, you know, maybe this is a mistake. Maybe my, my time preference is too low and it should be a bit higher. But because you can sell high on these guys, but my concern with trademark bride was really like, okay, the Cardinals are one in six. Now it's the Carson back show. And Joe, Jacobi Berset historically targets tight ends at the highest rate in the league. Every single year he's been in the league. And then in college, it was the highest rate in the FPS, like he is a major tight end cheat code. And you see it over his last 14 games, all games with Jacobi Berset or just about, uh, he ever just 21.1 fantasy points per game. That's behind only Puka and JSN, that's like a full point more than Jamar chase. That's 1.5 more than I'm on Ross St Brown and the consistency Brett is what's most impressive. He is more games over 27 fantasy points than games under 16 and a half fantasy points. So like, yeah, why isn't this guy being talked about in the same range as Puka and JSN? And then you factor in that fantasy points go a farther distance at the tight end position. Uh, yeah, this is really one of the most valuable players in fantasy, at least up until it's Carson back, then it's time to worry. And then Marvin Harris and junior, it's over. It couldn't be any more over than it is. He has a 5% target share. He has a 3% separation win rate, a 0.0 ass. Well, he doesn't care. He just doesn't care. None of those metrics matter because he's literally not even running routes. He's literally just jogging. Oh, it's like Devonte Adams when he wanted to trade out a Las Vegas. Yes. I did want to stop you after the McBride rank because I just wanted to say breaking news, Tremac bride is good. Thank you for telling all of our listeners to start Tremac bride. They needed that information for sure. I know no one cares, but no one was higher on him when he was coming out than you and you. Bye. Oh, yeah, we love them. I remember I did a, this is before I was doing a lot of, I actually I was doing no media at the time. I got asked to do a show and I'm going to drop some names and hopefully they get tickled by it. But Ragey Q, Derek Brown, and a couple other industry guys. We did a like a live senior bowl Q and A. And somebody asked the question, is there anybody here that's going to get into the first round of dynasty drafts and they were all like, yeah, I don't think this class is that good. I immediately spoke and said, yeah, Tremac bride. They're like, no way. Like I got clowned hard for this take. Guess where Tremac bride ended up going and, and Ricky drafts that year, the one 12, baby. Wow. Look at this. So. And now he's the best tight end football. That's, that's a key lesson for fantasy players out there. All of the best takes I've ever had were the ones I got laughed at where I got to destroy it. I got clowned on, you know, coming out on like Christian McCaffrey's a future Hall of Famer. I get clowned on Lamar Jackson is going to win MVP is so I get clanned. And it's just like, that was one of the first lessons I ever learned. The first ever fantasy draft I ever did when I fell in love with fantasy football. I was like 12 years old. It was my stepdad's league. And I remember the guy drafted Tiki Barber and he got laughed at. He was like, oh, he's old. He doesn't score touchdowns. He fumbled 12 times last year. And that was the best pick you could have made. He took him in like round six and you won the league with him. So yeah, that's where the value is is the contrarian angles. But anyway, we digress a little bit. I wanted to circle back to Michael Wilson. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article you've had opened for weeks. Ready to make anything online make sense? Check responses set up require compatibility and availability. Very 16 plus. Before this, there's this. The people grow in the grass, they've in the lot, weld in the gold posts, inspecting every football. Car heart is proud to outfit the crews behind the game. You get free nights every night all year long plus a 25% bonus toward your daytime use all summer. That's a first of its kind plan, created for how Texans actually use energy. Discover how much more you could save with free nights and cool days. cool summer, TXU energy, energy for everything. Visit TXU.com for more information, rep number 100004. So Marvin Harrison, Jr. It's over. Does that mean we should be bullish on Michael Wilson? And I think so, you know, he has a 20% target share this year. And we were talking about the schematic matchups with San Francisco or for the San Francisco offense. But for Arizona's offense up against a San Francisco defense that plays a lot of cover three, cover three to top three rate over 50% of the time. Michael Wilson's target per out run increases by 22%. And it actually jumps up above Trey McBride when facing cover three. So this is a nice little schematic matchup for him. So I like this ranking here. I like this projection. This is a really strong what the heck flags play. Yeah. I said to start this conversation, I like him way above Y2C for 39. I think it's a Seattle Seattle is a house of horrors. That's right. It's like I know we're we're feeling crappy about Michael Wilson because of last week. I'm telling you that's that's the hardest matchup that dude has the rest of the season. Is Mike McDonald the Ben Johnson Kyle Shanahan of defensive coordinators? Yes. Yeah. He might even be a better head coach on those guys because he's a better leader of men. You know, phenomenal coach. Yeah, I love Michael Wilson this week. Take it to the bank. All right. Let's move on. We got Minnesota traveling to Tampa Bay in what might set the NFL record for blitzes in a game here between the two blitz happiest teams in the league. That's right. The over unders 42 and a half Minnesota slightly favored on the road. I think this is crazy work by Vegas to have this line favoring the Vikings. I know Baker Mayfield has played like absolute dog water to start the season. Baker still has a long track record of success that I think we could bank on beyond those first two games. It is a home game for Tampa. I say that and they just got beat at home, right? By a crappy crappy Cleveland Brown team in Dishon, Watson. So maybe this is a bad take by me, but I do expect Tampa to come, come ready to fight in this game. If Baker can just mitigate some of those turnovers, schematically this is a really good matchup for him where he has a really good route runner in Mecca, Agbuca, Minnesota is going to throw the kitchen sink at him in terms of blitzes and it just takes a couple throws for Baker to get hot where we know he's a big roller coaster. He just got to start feeling it a little bit. There's going to be open windows to throw the ball into a lot of replacement windows as those second level players come up in blitz. Baker should be able to find the soft spot. I feel really good about this, but I like the Tampa Bayside, I like Agbuca a little bit. I actually have a kind of a hot take for you about Agbuca. His separation numbers are really good. This is going to scare you a little bit. I see a little bit of Traylon Berks in his game. Oh, no. A little bit of like just out of control coming out of his braids like he won the route, but it's like he's stumbling and it's just not. It's not clean at the catch point because he's not in control and his bodies all over the place. It's just a little bit, not quite to the extreme we saw with Traylon, but it's like, I just see a little bit of that kind of like wild coming out of his brake stuff where it's like, yeah, he's crushing corners, but it doesn't matter if he doesn't have the body control to stay on his feet. Yeah, for those who don't know, everyone had a round one grade on Traylon Berks, except for Brett who had a day three grade on Traylon, and I'm like, you're crazy. Let's watch the film. We watch the film together. It's like, yeah, this is like an awful athlete. He could run in a straight line fast, but like a really uncoordinated, like he's constantly like falling on the ground and like. Runs like he has vertigo. Brett's comp for Traylon was Janu, so he kept calling him Traylonu. So yeah, that's that's concerning. Let me start at the top with the quarterback. So Baker is actually historically one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the Blitz. I don't know, but I wonder if that's because, you know, he faces against the Todd Bull's defense and practice all the time. So he has a lot of experience against it. That being said, this is maybe the best defense in the league. Baker has four turnovers, seven sacks and two games. He's bottom three in EPA per dropback. I'm not all that bullish. Bucky Irving, this is one that we kind of disagreed on, but just like looking at the usage and volume, you have a guy who's what seventh and snap share, fifth and target share, and he had an all time great rookie season by fantasy points per snap. It's just like the math is telling me that this is a fringe RB one and it's encouraging to say to see Chris agree with that, even in this tough matchup, the wide receivers, I was going to say we need to pull these guys apart. They're a little too pinched together. You were saying Chris Godwin looks washed and the ass would confirm that completely washed his separation score ranks 60 second of 76 wide receivers. He has fewer first three targets than Ted Hearst right now. So I would, I'll tell Chris, that's when we have our projections called, but I would push Godwin down, I would put a book up, he's going to get a lot of too high coverage, which the Vikings play at the leagues highest rate, nearly 69% of the time. A book is yards per route run jumps 50% against too high coverage. So that's really good for him. Some concerns. The target tree has been really flat this year. He's at just 18% Kodnet, 18% Ted Hearst, it's 16%. And just like last year, he leads the league in unketchable air yardage rate. What does that mean? It means like he's seeing a lot of high quality targets with a lot of air yards behind them, just almost none of them are catchable. And so we last year were like, oh, Baker must be playing herd. He's been on the injury report 11 different times with 10 different injuries. And now it's looking like, oh, well, maybe he just, maybe Liam Cohen's just a genius and he like turned back into a pumpkin. He's never been a pumpkin, though. That's the thing. What we're seeing from Baker is in the script of his entire career, even going back to Oklahoma. He has these massive swings and it's the emotional edge he plays with, I'm telling you. But back on it, Buka, we're projecting in YBC for 38. I think he's a YBC for three at least, like looking at our projections. I like him better than BTJ straight up. I like him better than Romeo Dub straight up. You could convince me over James and Williams when I'm sure you'd love to hear that take. Yeah. Maybe even over Xavier Worthy, because even though I like Xavier Worthy's role in the offense, it hasn't manifested into any type of meaningful production. You're right. Yeah. So it's like, we're too low on him for sure. He's made a range wide receiver three at worst. We'll get this projection. We don't want to be overreacting the week's one and two, right? So like Baker, he was horrible, he, I expect him to go a little bit closer to his career average career norms. Despite the tough matchup and a, it's interesting. It's not a tough matchup, I think, for Baker. No. I don't think Minnesota's defense is about, it's schematically difficult to sort through, but as you laid out, Baker's already great against the Blitz. And it really take, like if you look historically through the Flores defense stuff, it takes one team to pop them. And then once that happens, like the floodgates open for the rest of the season. Yeah. If you look over the past few years, they give up explosives in the past game at one of the highest rates. Yeah. They're one of the worst defenses at defending the deep ball. They give up a ton of yards after catch. It's just like that's the way they play defense. Is they create a ton of havoc, a lot of confusion, the force, a lot of turnovers, get a lot of sacks. It's really interesting. But there's literal oceans to run into. If you can sidestep all that, there's literal oceans to play in and that's favorable to the offense. Right. So many other teams are going to Vic Fangio, Ben, but don't break, you know, sell out to stop the deep ball and it's interesting to see a defense go the opposite way. But let's talk about the Vikings here. Yeah. Let's. Is Aaron Jones healthy? Is he going to play? Yeah. That's the question. We don't really know right now. But this, this was before even the hint of the, this injury. So like a fully healthy Aaron Jones would be RB 14, why? Because he was the highest end bell cow. He saw really just about all of the work. He 80.4% of the snaps, 72% of the backfield XFP, Mason's on IR for at least three more games. We're going to have to put an injury dock on Aaron Jones. So that that that's going to go down a little bit, could go down a lot. It could be the DJ Dallas show where like DJ Dallas who stinks is going to get a 90% snap share and be a mid-range RB 2 because of it. But we'll have to, we'll have to hold our breath on that one. Why do you think we're projecting Justin Jefferson to high? Because he's just in Jefferson, he's wildly believed to be one of the best wide receivers in the game and he just had this ridiculous target share with Carson Wentz. I'm with you. I think this is kind of high. I'm kind of pessimistic about Kyler Murray and his ability to support a fantasy wide receiver one. Well, if you're reacting to early season information, like Tampa's actually been pretty good against receivers. They shut down Jamar Chase and T Higgins. Denzel Boston had a nice stat line last week, but it all came on one play. You know, he had the five catches for 95 in a tuddy, but like 60 in a tuddy of that was one play, right? The catch and run where he broke a few tackles, not necessarily something you can hang your hat on. So it's like, I kind of think Tampa's defense might be okay. I don't know. I get they're not going to shut down Justin Jefferson. That's not what I'm saying. By the way, he's obviously a star. We don't have to tell you to start Justin Jefferson. But I was just a little surprised to see him that high. Yeah. So I'm and then you're sitting everyone else comfortably, comfortably. Yeah. Yeah. I feel the exact same way. Let's move on to maybe the most fun game of the week. That's Baltimore. It's not actually at Dallas. It is a Dallas home game. But the game is taking place in Brazil Rio de Janeiro. The over under in this game is 52 and a half. That's a pretty high implied point total. Baltimore, the slight favor. I wonder if they'd be the favorite if it was neutral, if it was a home game for Dallas, actually. But it's neutral field. So I think they're getting the nod minus three and a half is the spread. This is a startup. If you got him game, the the point total says everything you really need to know. Let's start on the Baltimore side. Scott, you can't obviously you're starting Lamar Jackson, you're starting Henry, you're starting Zay. If he plays, what's it looking like with Zay? Do you know? I kind of don't know. There was a report this morning. I think it's like 40 60 he plays like he should be good next week for sure. And I think this one's a little bit more iffy. So yeah, you see a lot of green here and why do you see a lot of green? It's because the Cowboys are the worst defense and football since the start of last season. That's true by points per drive allowed EPA per play allow the all the money stats, you know, fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks to wide receivers to tight ends. And so yeah, a lot of green was a flowers. I mean, like, this is this probably has a Chris Wecht injury doc, a big one on him. And he's still wide receiver 22. Cause last time we saw him play football, he had five catches 150 yards in a touchdown on 11 routes. He was also one yard shy of another touchdown. Also interesting to see Baltimore top 10 and p row after ranking 31st and 26th the last two years. I really love what Declan Doyle is doing and how he's calling plays Zay flowers, you're starting him. And then a Zay flowers out, you're starting with shot, David, we haven't as a sip, but that's what Zay flowers in again, we talked about it on one of our previous episodes this week, the 13 personnel role, the the featured one role, it's awesome. It's awesome. So Rashad Bateman jumps to probably high end wide receiver three low end wide receiver two, if flowers is out, but if flowers is in your sitting Rashad Bateman and the Mark Andrews sneaky, sneaky good utilization thus far, he's fifth in target share. So mid range to low end tight and one, I could certainly get behind that and then just Derek Henry, the dog, you know, he's just awesome. Derek Henry, the dog, schematically is just funny because Dallas's defense is just bad in general, but they're really bad against 12 personnel looks. I don't know if you check this out. They're like, they're giving up 0.51 EPA per play against 12 personnel, which is like, that's like heinously bad. And obviously Baltimore is one of the heavier personnel teams in the league. I'm actually looking for, do you know how Dallas's defense is performed against tight ends recently? This year, uh, yeah, so they gave up Durham smith. Yeah, but the point I was going to make is they gave up eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns who Isaiah likely. Um, you just talked about Mark Andrews usage so far this season. This is a really good soft matchup for him. Dallas has gotten beat up by tight ends a little bit and they're terrible against 12 personnel. So I definitely like this matchup for Andrews. I probably, honestly, Scott, I might like him better than tight end seven. Bro, this is crazy. So the, the Cowboys have given up the seventh most fantasy points to tight ends, but just the 20th most targets 11 targets 11 catches 107 yards and two touchdowns. And again, they're the since the start of last season. They're all right, well, they're not too bad. But so very, very winnable matchup here for Mark Andrews. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Check responses set up required compatibility and availability very 16 plus. As you celebrate the game, take a deeper look at its roots, the people grow in the grass, they've in the lots, weld in the goalposts, inspecting every football, the hardworking people to make every Sunday possible. You get free nights every night all year long, plus a 25% bonus toward your daytime use all summer. It's a first of its kind plan created for how Texans actually use energy, discover how much more you could save with free nights and cool summer. Visit TXU.com for more information, rep number 1-0-0-0-4. On the Dallas side, it's, yeah, it's high powered off and starting if you got them. Javante Williams, I want to hit on, I don't know that schematically, I like this matchup. Baltimore's run defense has been good to start. They have their big, you know, hogmollies in the middle healthy, just a meta-bweek gay Travis Jones who missed, you know, most of last year. So I, I really, like Javante struggled to start the season. Dallas's offensive line is in not a great spot with Tyler Smith missing, you know, every game so far. And I don't know, I don't know when he's supposed to come back, but I know it's not this week. So I think the, the woes and the run side of the ball will will still, you know, persist this week, especially against this defense. It's going to have to come down to Daxe, CD Lama, George Pickens to me. Yeah. And I think that's why it seems like we might be a little low on Javante Williams at RB 16. I'd be lower than that to be fair. But so I don't know that I would be as, as volume and utilization has been really good. He's top 10 in XFP for team play, top 5 in Snapshare. His target share has come up from last year. So maybe he's not quite as game script sensitive, but still in a game that the Cowboys are three and a half point dogs. I can't, I can't put him too much higher than this. Dak Prescott, mid-range QB one, Cowboys probably lead the league and passing yards this year, CD Lama, unbelievable usage thus far, 34% first re target share. Let's talk about your boy, George Pickens though, because we have him wide receiver 19. So mid-range wide receiver two, he really looks like the clear number two. So he's at 12.2 XFP per game, CD Lama at 23.4. And it's a bad schematic matchup. Also, because Baltimore plays too high on 63% of the time. George Pickens target per out run drops 39%. He's behind CD Lama. He's behind Terrence for Ajay Ferguson. He's behind Javante Williams. So he could be the number four in this brutal schematic matchup. Do you agree or disagree, Brett? I disagree. And they made that clear last week with what Pickens got eight targets. Washington was doing the same exact thing. They were playing too too high over top of them. They in Dak Prescott is a cool. We'll just throw shorter intermediate routes. They didn't hit any for a big game, but that's not that's not something that's going to stick every week. So I'm pretty comfortable with this matchup, to be honest with you. Alright, well, I just pulled it up right now. The over under on George Pickens is 60. I would take the under Brett would take the over. So we're going to have to make that an official fantasy football daily bet. If Brett's right, I'll give him $20. If I'm right, Brett has to wear women's clothing wedding dress on stick with the $20. I'm not doing yeah, I'm not. You have to wear clown makeup and a wedding dress and yeah, deal. It'd be nice for someone other than you to wear clown makeup on the show. Oh, sorry, that's not make up you're wearing my bed. Alright, let's let's move on. Actually, you know, before before we're going to get to the Raiders and the Saints, but before we do, we got a quick word from Scott Barrett. Alright, Raiders at Saints, a low point total here, 43 and a half. Saints are favored by three at home, kind of gross. I have no idea what to make of the Raiders. They're two and a half. The defense is played shockingly good. Max Crosby does not look like a guy who failed the physical and shut a trade down to Baltimore. He looks like Max Crosby. They We got a rookie corner has a Kaya Masseys that just lives. looks awesome for. It's like a fifth round picker's on I think. Anyways. Raiders have been a surprise team for sure. The Saints have been in these absolute dog fights each of the first two weeks where they've come out of nowhere in the fourth quarter to put a bunch of points on the board. So kind of a fun little match up. But the over under is scary here, Scott. I think that implies we were probably not expecting a lot of scoring, maybe temperate some expectations on some of the Saints, but our projections are disagreeing with that. Yeah. I think I think this is. So the Raiders are interesting to me. I keep talking about these power law play callers, right? And like there are Kyle Shanahan who you give him like the worst starting quarterback in the league is going to have like a really successful offense that supports multiple fantasy relevant players. And I think I think Kubiak is up there with those names. And like the antithesis is there's also some awful play callers like Nick Kayley, Bobby, Slowick, where it's just it's just painful. And so I'm kind of bullish on the Raiders, but I don't know how you start Kirk Cousins. Ash and Jenty, he he had over 30 XFP last week, but he also had 2.2 yards per carry and three drops still just the utilization and usage and volume is like too incredible for him to be anything less than a mid-range RB one at worst. I think I think trade Tucker is kind of interesting, especially if the Raiders get behind here. He currently ranked 7th in yards per route run. New Orleans plays single high at the league second highest rate. And Tucker sees about a 30% increase against single high, which makes sense as a as a guy with elite wheels. And he kind of reminds me of Kirk Cousins new Darnell Mooney. And maybe that doesn't sound all that inspiring to you, but like I remember like Darnell Mooney was like just as productive as Drake London and it's like that should never happen because Drake London is just so much more talented. Why would that happen? It's like well gunslinger Kirk loves throwing it down feeling he's actually really good at it. So like it seems like a good stylistic fit, but Chris Wack disagrees. He doesn't think this is trade Tucker is anywhere close to making it into your flex position. And then Brock Bowers with a heavy heavy injury doc is still technically a start for us as a low end tight end one. And again, that's another player you want to be a tune to Jake laser reports in rap report report C C how you know is Bowers just a decoy this week is he a little bit better than that. So but right now with the heavy injury doc still a tight end one. I do I absolutely love your trade Tucker shout especially when you consider the fact that New Orleans like lives in single high 67% of their snaps are going to be single high, which is like top five in the league point being there's going to be opportunities down field for him for him to catch a big one. So that's a fun little shout there on the same side of the story. But I mean this could also be a you want to play the afternoon slate and DFS. We could help you with that or if you want to do some prop bets. Yeah. Well, yeah, and it's a start sit show we're projecting wide receiver 52. I think you and I might be a little higher than that. And some people are in some really bad situations because of injuries. You know, what if you have AJ Brown and Nico Collins on your team? What if you have Nico Collins and Malik neighbors? Actually, a listener of the show does in fact have Nico Collins and Malik neighbors. You might be desperate to find just a startable player and one of those flex spots trade Tucker is something I wouldn't turn your nose up at this week. As I'm saying, bro fantasy football is such a war of attrition. Like there are seasons and leagues and teams of mine where it's like it felt like I was Joe and God was just smiting my fantasy team were like my round one, round two, round three, all. And then I still like find a way to win the championship. It's like you really just got a scratch and claw, win weeks. And then at a certain point these guys get healthy and and come back and and push you over the top. We do a theological breakdown of what it means for Job in the Old Testament here. How do we find Christ and Job story? Is that is that what you're trying to do right now? You tell me you're the you're the biblical scholar. Save that for a different podcast. How about that? Okay. All right. Bible study with Brett and Scott. We'll do that after our dog breeding episodes. You'd have to clean up the language for that to work, but you know, that's all right. Saints side of the ball here. I didn't say it was. But many of the partakers of that show would probably not appreciate some of the language said as all I'm saying. Today's today's episode is is brought to you by our sponsor Jesus Christ who died for your sins. Hope no one thinks we're making fun of your religion bread and I are both Christians. No, yeah. Not making fun of it all. It's just it actually. Can I can I say this? It is funny because I think at one point this summer, you did call me and say that we should start a podcast just talking about the Bible. Well, I learned so much from you. I'm you're you're really are well while studied so. Thank you. All right. Should we move to the next game or do you have anything to say about these saints? I have a lot to say about the saints. I'm sure if I could just pull up my notes here. So the cover boy of the everything report this week was Tyler Schuck, Ryan Heath. You know, you heard it a couple days ago. He's the 2015 Blake Bordles, but with a much better play collar. Over his last 10 starts, he averages 19.9 fantasy points per game. It's like QB seven ish 42 dropbacks per game. It's QB three ish. He's the team's goal line back seven of 13 of the teams team rushing attempts inside the five. He leads all quarterbacks and hero throw rate, which really kind of plays into that poor man's Josh Allen comparison made by the Ravens defense of coordinator. The saints lead the league and pace of play. Ryan Heath Graham barfield Bo saying this is like a top 10 quarterback moving forward. To me, his rich man's bow next to you know, has a guy who hasn't been playing quarterback all that well, but just on play volume and an opportunity as has been like a low end QB one really solidly. And Chris is even more bullish. He hasn't as a top five quarterback this week. So Tyler Schuck, you know, another, another guy who's, he's running laps around the Xodia quarterback. He to see it. And then downstream from that is like, not only has he been a great fantasy quarterback, but he's been able to support multiple pass catchers. It's not just Chris Olave, who over his nine games since the Rashid Shahid trade last year averages 21.3 fantasy points per game, 20.4 xfp per game, 3.6 yards per route run. Those are all top five numbers over this span. And then Devon Veely, sort of the same thing. He leaves all players and routes run. So again, it ties back to play volume. But over his last five games and keep in mind, he left one of those games at, at half time, he averages 14.7 fantasy points per game, 67 yards per game. Those are all top 15, fringe top 15 to be fair numbers. So you know, Chris might be even a little too low on on Devon Veely. That's yet another start for you. And then Joanne Johnson is, is a, you know, on the fence, tight on 12. He, you know, he hasn't been killing it, but he's, he's technically top eight and fantasy points per game, top eight and xfp per game, top three and routes run, just really one of the most important stats for tight ends. Yeah. And can we talk about the Raiders? Like they, they've played two Ponzi schemes so far this year. So I think the defense is looking crispy. But you've played, you know, Mike Daniel, you've played Bobby Slowick. I think there's, there's room to grow here in this. I don't think this defense is going to hold up quite like this for the whole season. So yeah. Well, that's the, keep in mind, like strength of schedule is always massive and it's especially massive with only a two game sample size. But these were two really interesting stats I had on this overall matchup, Brett, the same defense ranks dead last in success rate. They're the worst defense in the league by success rate. That blew my mind. And then on the opposite side of the ball, the Raiders defense very quietly ranks best in EPA per play allowed. Best in EPA per run. Second, best in quick pressure rate. That's a next Crosby stat. You know, they face the chargers, they face the dolphins, but still pretty impressive. That is impressive. I, I really liked Johan Johnson. So I wanted to ask you this. This is what I want where I wanted to get. We're projecting him tight and 12. So as you see on the fence because he's not a clear tied on one. But who do you like him? Who do you like more? Isaiah likely or Johan Johnson? Like for this week. You look likely more by far. Really? Yeah. Dude, Malik neighbors is a decoy out there. They have nowhere else for the ball to go. He's looked awesome. Like you said, and you were a hater. James Winston, typically just yellow ball airs it out. Lots of catchable air yards, lots of I say likely doesn't run routes down the field, brother. Hey, I mean, well, he's, then he's still the check down. It's just you. And they're down Andrew Thomas at left tackle. He's not a blocking tight end, though. Yeah. You realize losing a star left tackle though is generally bad. Like the Offensive production goes down. Jim is Winston averages like 50 pass at times per game throughout his career. I know it's I know it's our bond. It's a different coach, but I just like just projecting out volume. Juwan or Brock Bowers. Brock Bowers. Okay, I like to want better than both of us. We're going to play on DFS this week. Okay, I will. Various 18 plus. Before this. There's this. The people grow in the grass, they've in the lots, well, in the goalposts, inspecting every football, the hardworking people to make every Sunday possible. Visit carhartt.com/jointhetrades to learn more. It's a first of its kind plan created for how Texans actually use energy, discover how much more you could save with free nights in cool summer. All right, let's move on to the Sunday night game. We've got the Los Angeles Rams, traveling to Denver, Milhye Stadium. The Rams are favored on the road against, you know, a team that was a couple plays away from the Super Bowl last year. The over under is 44 and a half. So not a huge point total in this game. I guess a big question for me is, is Puka going to be back? How are you feeling about that? And then let's get into the schematics of it. It doesn't sound like Puka's going to be back. You know, I made this show sheet yesterday. I wonder if the updated projections actually have Puka out. In which case, like Devante Adams is going to jump from wide receiver 21 to like what wide receiver two wide receiver one. Is he really? I mean, I'm guessing I could pull up the projections, see if we have it updated. Man, that's, that's wild. Do you disagree? Look at how valuable that role was. He just had nearly a career high in receiving yards for a Hall of Famer. Yes, but we would reject that. I have a Sean McVey wide receiver one is like. Bro, you have, bro, you have I'm unroversed the jets. You have JSN versus the commanders. You have CD versus bolt. The thing, I don't know, Denver still has. Patrick Sartane, man, I don't know. I, I think they're well equipped to limit this, this Ram's passing attack. If there's no Puka Nikua, you know, Patrick Sartane is a fair point. I will say Devanti Adams historically has been one of the most. The least shadow sensitive cornerbacks wide receivers in the game. He's, he's, I know Sartane is on a different level, but he, he's always gotten the better of almost every cornerback he's faced. And the Rams can do some interesting things to kind of move him to the slot or, you know, get mismatches, right, right? They can. They'll probably just live in 12 and 13 though and have him go ISO up. All right. So then maybe it's a huge game for Terrence Ferguson again, because he had what nine targets last week, he did really well. If, if it's no Puka and we're, we're projecting the Sartane shadow on Adams. Yeah, I think Ferguson's definitely a play. We, we at least probably get him to what tight end 13, 14, something like that. Probably higher than that. Honestly, probably tight end nine. Okay. Nine targets, six catches, 54 yards in a touchdown. He was the clear number two receiver by a lot. Like I, he had nine. I don't know that anyone else had more than like two. Okay. So in this hypothetical, that actually looks like it's true. I doesn't seem like Puka's going to play. It does seem like Adams will catch a, a Sartane shadow. Would you like Ferguson more than I say, likely? I don't know. What about Tyler Warren? Colts are broken, dude. I don't know, sorry. Yeah, probably what about Johan Johnson? What's going on with with Tyler Warren? Jeff Mueller was tweeting about it. He wonders if there's an injury. I don't think that's the case, but. Well, Daniel Jones looks awful, Daniel Jones looks awful. Yeah, I mean, I think he's coming back from a serious injury. Yeah, I know. He doesn't look like he's ready to play. He can't move in the pocket. Last one, Johan Johnson or Ferguson in this hypothetical Ferguson. Okay, so she's a tight on one for you, then clearly. Yeah, that's what I say. All right, cool. I like that. Look at Kyron Williams there. He's now on the fence, which just like speaks to us saying he's a sell high. It's, it's just like as awesome as the Rams offense is. It's just like so tough when you're in a 55, 45 split back field. And you're going to get matchups like this. Tough matchups against the Broncos where it's, yeah, fringe RV to it best. It's, it's, you know, it's tough for me though. Dude, they got annihilated. It's funny because you always say I'm well studied or well read. But then you call me a literate. It's like, well, well, audio booked. You're going to listen to the folks at home. We don't know is like Brett is like a film savant. It's like, it's like Ray Charles being, being blind and like, but, but hearing like so acutely Brett can't read, but he's excellent. With film study. I hate you. Anakin Skywalker voice. I hate you. Oh, you don't like Star Wars. I can't use that reference. Anyways, here's. So I got shit on for making fun of you for being a Star Wars nerd. When I built my whole plan, exactly, but like, here's the thing is like, you're, you're in your 30s. Like, there is no excuse for a 30 year old to be a Star Wars nerd because the only good Star Wars media to ever come out was from like the 1970s. So like, you're left with like the new Anakin Star Wars, which were awful. And then like the woke Disney Star Wars, which I never watched, but we're supposedly awful. So it's like, first of all, first of all, the, the prequel trilogy with Anakin Skywalker. It's fantastic. Big Jar Jar Binks fan over here. Dang, that's a bird. Let's hear your Jar Jar Binks impression. I'm 100% sure that at least you keep promising it. Yeah, whatever. I think Jar Jar Binks is the Jamaican Trump. Anyways, by, I have two older brothers. Okay, one 16 and 12 years older than me. Return of the Jedi was released in 1983, homie. I was born in 1987. My brothers, you know, they brainwashed me early to be a Star Wars guy because they grew up with it. And so that's, that's why I'm a Star Wars fan. So that's, yeah. Anyways, the point I've been wanting to make about the Rams running backs, Kyron Williams and Blake Quorum, the Denver Broncos defense has been awful against the run. I mean, Kenneth Walker annihilated them in a week one. And last week, the game script got away from Jackson, but they were running the ball effectively. I think Basel Tutten had 65 yards like early into the third quarter. And then just couldn't run the ball anymore because the game script. That was the question I was going to ask you. Like, is Denver's run defense really bad? Because we know their past defense is going to be amazing. Yes, because they have Patrick certain. So no matter what it's an amazing past defense, but the if the run defense is even just below average, that makes it awful because teams are just going to avoid the past, hit the run. And so for, for two weeks, we had Basel Tutten hit five point zero yards per carry. We had Kenneth Walker, seven point five yards per carry with like 20 Miss Tackles for us. One of the most in fantasy points data history is Denver's run defense bad. Because yes, OK, then then Kyron should be much higher because the Rams and probably the past catchers lower because the Rams running game is amazing. Last year, Blake Korn and Kyron Williams, both ranked top three in success rate. This year, Blake Korn and Kyron Williams, both ranked top three in success rate. So this could be a game where both guys get easily over a dozen carries each. Yeah, totally agree with you. That's why I wanted to bring it up. I'm higher on both these guys. So and I think Denver, and if we're getting the certain Devonte, Adam Smith, or a shadow, they're going to rely on the run game. We've seen the Rams do this, but they can be very run aggressive at times. So all right, let's hit Denver real quick. I'm, we have waddles of start. You have to start them, I think, just because last week was so good. But I feel great about Waddle. Do you, Trent McDuffy doesn't scare you? I don't know, man. It's, I think the only thing that could stop him is, is what we saw on week one, which was what brackets and cloud coverage, intentionally designed to, to stop him. Shula's got that in his bag, brother. Is that right? Yeah. I mean, I'm not necessarily saying that's what will happen, but like he's definitely got that in his back. I think they leave Trent McDuffy on him. And then I trust Sean Peyton and company to scheme him up. Okay. I'm looking through. - Bro, he had a 33% target share, 55% of the air yards. Eight catches, 138 yards last week. - Yeah, I mean, that's what, bottles of must start, no doubt. I'm just like, I'm kind of tempering expectations a little bit. - Yeah. - Suddenly actually might have a better matchup. - Bro, yeah, well that's the thing is, he definitely does have the better matchup, but he's still barely, he's a fringe wide receiver three, but his role has been awful. Like I thought it would be even better than it's been and 15% of the target, 17% of the air yards, if he doesn't get it done this week, he's droppable, certainly in 10 team leagues, he's probably droppable today. And then the running back, ironically, JK Dobbins is the healthy guy. We were talking about Jonah Coleman as an S tier waiver ad, and now the most injury prone running back ever. - Oh, actually he's okay, but Jonah Coleman has an ankle sprain. - Yeah, that's tragic. Coral and Sutton, by the way. He's only got nine targets on the air for a total of 36 yards so far, not great. Yeah. So you like Waddle, we're middish on Sutton, but you're sitting JK Dobbins, just the run defense too good on the rampside. - Yeah, I'll be honest, that might be an outdated projection that might have had Jonah Coleman. So I'll tell you what we have right now. - No, while you're looking that up, I'll talk about Bonix for a second. Bonix is playing like trash. And so it's really frustrating because so much of their offense is built on design stuff, but even like, something I've always harped on him for is his ball location just isn't good. Even like what we call a catchable throw, it's like if it requires an adjustment from the receiver that slows down the process, it slows down the transition from catch to run, which limits yards after catch, it's a little frustrating to watch sometimes. Okay, do you have a question? - I mean, he wasn't good last year either. - No, or as a rookie. - Yeah. - I thought he was pretty good as a rookie. - He ranked like bottom third of the NFL in catchable throw rate, accurate throw rate. And then when you actually go even on more granular level and look at those ball location stuff, like unless he's on the move, he's not a very accurate quarterback. Did you pull the projection for JK? - Yeah, we have a three way committee here. We have Harvey Dobbin's Coleman all in. I don't know what the injury docs look like. I'll find out when we do our projections meeting, but yeah, they're all sits. They're all low end RB3s at best. We actually have Harvey a little bit higher, which I think ties into the game script here projecting Broncos to trail in this game. Nice. Final game of the week, Monday night football, the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Chicago, the windy city, in a game where the Eagles are favored by five. And that's obviously because of the quarterback situation of Chicago, Chicago. How sad is it that we have a Ben Johnson game with an over under a 41 and a half? - Yeah. - That's painful, dude. That is so painful. On the Eagles side, I think you feel great about Barclay, Chicago's run defense is heinous. It's bad. It was terrible last year. It started this year really, really bad as well. We just saw Uncle Aaron Jones just shred them in a rainy game on Sunday, like a rainy day game, which typically the rain makes everything messy. So Aaron Jones is shred of the Chicago defense, though. I think Barclay is more than competent enough to get this going here for an Eagles team that's desperate to get the run game going. And then Devanta Smith just looks unbelievable, truly unbelievable. I'm shocked that we don't have Don Tavi and Wix on this, though. What's up with that? - Yeah, what is up with that? Scott. - Scott, Scott. Where, actually, you tell me what you think about Barclay. I'm gonna look up Wix's projection. - Actually, I just pulled it up. He's wide receiver 44, which is probably still a little too low, but that certainly puts him in play as what the heck flecks start. I'm surprised Jalen Hertz is this low. Can we start there? - Yeah, yeah, start there. - Chris is someone I've accused as a Giants fan. Him as an Eagles fan is being a little heavy handed with the Eagles projections every now and then. And so it really is jarring to me that he has Hertz, QB 11. When I usually think he's too high on Hertz, 'cause maybe he's concerned that there's not enough pushback here from Case Kingdom, but that never really worries me too much with Jalen Hertz. If they have good starting field position, that means more red zone drives, which means more push push touchdowns, rushing touchdowns. So even if this is a blowout, this could be a Jalen Hertz gets one or two rushing touchdowns game in the first half. He has one or two passing touchdowns. So I actually like Jalen Hertz a little bit more than the Chris does for the first time ever. Saquem Berkley working his way back from the injury. We kind of criticized the Eagles running game and I think rightfully so. It just, it looks like they built their offense around the past with their heavy 11 personnel. And so I don't know that the efficiency is gonna be as good as it was certainly two years ago. And then also even the usage, there was a lot of talk about Saquem being more involved as a pass catcher this year. You're really not seeing it. His route share is even worse. And it's actually really bad. So Saquem with a potential injury doc as well is just a mid-range RB2 despite this elite matchup. - This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. It can help you with practically anything on the web. Like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50 page restoration block or finally break down that long article that you've had open for weeks. Check responses set up required compatibility and availability varies 18 plus. - Before this. (screaming) There's this. They've in the lots, weld in the gold posts, inspecting every football. - This episode is brought to you by TXU Energy. It's a first of its kind plan. Created for how Texans actually use energy, discover how much more you could save with free nights in cool summer. TXU Energy for everything. Visit TXU.com for more information, rep #100004. - Devonta Smith, no Dallas Goddard. Yeah, he's gonna smash. After Goddard left last week, he had a 38% target share. He had a 50% yardage share. You've seen this before whenever Goddard and AJ Brown were both out or in Goddard's in sense when Devonta and AJ Brown were both out. It really all just kind of went through one guy and then Devonta, Don Taving and Wix isn't on the screen, but he's a fringe, what the heck flex play. - Yeah, Chicago's corners are awful too. - Yeah, well, there's two starters are both out, right? - Are they? - Yeah. - What starters are you referring to? You talking Kyler Gordon? No, Jalen Johnson's playing. They've rookie Malik Muhammad in the nickel. They've got Kim, sorry, Kyrie Stevenson, who's questionable. But Jalen Johnson's playing. I think you're thinking Kyler Gordon. He's not been good anyways. - Oh, yeah. - I was thinking Kyler Gordon. I was thinking someone else too. Kobe Bryant, they're safety? - Safety, he is out for the season, got hurt in the preseason. Yeah, I mean, they're beat up. I mean, you saw Jalen Kocher absolutely go nuclear against them in week one, and then Jefferson would have had a much better game week two, but the rain was involved, and Carson Wentz was involved, so. - Bro, I feel like this is a Chris Flexing on us, because he was so low on Luther Burton, Colston Loveland, and Roma Dunesay, when ADP fantasy drafters, baseball bros couldn't get enough of the bears. And he was just like, even if you think the bear's offense is incredible, there's no way for all these guys to hit. Honestly, all three of these guys are probably overvalued, and now you have Luther Burton disgusting sit, Roma Dunesay dead, Colston Loveland dead. Deandre Swift, I actually think he's a little too low on, just 'cause I trust Ben Johnson, just even with Case Keen in that corner back, quarterback to scheme, brilliant game planning, whatever, but it's also Kyle Menon guy's banged up, so I could see Deandre Swift getting a little bit even more of the work, and he's also heavily involved in the passing game. And then I think there's a world where, like even if it is Case Keen him, Luther Burton could be nice. Like all it takes is just, you know, some screens, scheme him up, you know, he's the first read, and so you don't have to pay the billions he has been. - No, he hasn't been. Do we have to do this for the third time this week? - He's 13th in first read target share. - Yeah, and because he's being massively inflated by a two-minute drill drive to end there. a game. Yeah, so we have a two-minute sample size of a quarterback not being Caleb Williams doing the smart thing and throwing it to their best player. Maybe Case Keenam. He's been in the league a long time. Seems like a smart guy does the same thing. What are you going to do if Khalif Raymond has a big game again? I'm going to jump off a bridge, Brett. What do you think I'm going to do? What if Ben Johnson's just doing the install this week is just like Case. Listen, I know you're a vet, but we want to keep this simple. Just throw it to the guy who knows the offense. That's Khalif Raymond. I don't want to live in this reality, Brett. This dystopian hellscape for Khalif Raymond is out of curiosity. Where are we projecting Khalif Raymond? I got a wide receiver, 72. Chris has no love. Chris has no love. But yeah, this is what happens of Colson Loveland has like two catches again this week. Actually, that'd be an improvement. He hasn't had two. We're in dangerous territory with these bears, man. It's pretty wild. Schematically, the Eagles have been run on a little bit. It's susceptible to some zone runs. Ben's going to mix it up with zone and gap stuff. I think Swift could have a decent day. Other than that, though, I think we're pretty straight up at this game. You good? Yep. All right. You want to get out of here? Sure. Cool. That's week three start set. We've gone through all 16 games. If you missed the other 10 games that we didn't cover today, it's because they're on yesterday's video. Silly, go back and watch them. If you're not currently subscribed to the YouTube, make sure you subscribe. Turn notifications on. Scott and I are doing this every single day. Winning you, famously, leagues. I wanted to pick your brain on something. I was just listening to Kevin Clark's podcast. Kevin Clark, by the way, like really special talent. Every time I've ever listened to something from him, I've always come away learning like five new things. I'm just thinking he's really smart and knowledgeable. But he was talking about, you know, one of the things that makes Tom Brady great and Kyle Shanahan great is Tom Brady. He would notice, let's say, a brutal mismatch. It's Rob Grunkowski against this really slow linebacker. You think he would just target the crap out of Grunkowski and just rack up touchdowns early. He wouldn't do that. Save it for the big moment. Save it for the fourth quarter. He would just have that in the back of his pocket, the entire game. He would just only pull it out when he really needed it. And then Kyle Shanahan, he was saying what he does is he will intentionally call plays that don't work just to figure out how the defense would react and respond to it and see if he can catch them off guard or if it reveal a key tendency. Although all that was really interesting, but he was talking about the Oregon quarterback, how he had a tell that apparently like different teams around the league knew about for like two years where defense is just new exactly whether it was going to be a runner or a pass just based on how his feet were positioned. He would kind of cheat into the run. Obviously that's really hard to win games when your defense knows what they're doing. Look at your biggest miss, right? JJ McCarthy. He looks like an elite processor and it's like maybe just, you know, he was talking about this. And I was thinking about it too, but it's like, we're now living in the day and age of AI where it's like, you know, you feed all of your opponents tape into an AI. Can your AI just like perfectly pick out, you know, a player who might be giving away the play call like because like that's what AI is, right? It's better at pattern matching than like any human could be. It can synthesize all this data at once. And so it's that. It's also like, or you just have like AI processing from, you know, the booth that the play callers are in. And it's like, okay, 97% certainty. This is going to be a run. You don't really know why, but 97% certainty. So I wonder if like in the day and age of AI now, it's, or like even just pick off like mismatches that maybe the coaches I haven't picked up on it. It's like, it's like, oh, no, this guy for, you don't, the coaches don't know. But you like the AI knows it is like, hey, he's, he's been struggling to go to his right because he picked up an eye injury and he actually can't, yeah, he's, he's bad vision out of that eye. So like you target him there. And it's like, yeah, so in the day and age of AI, like, I wonder if upsets are going to be a little bit more prevalent, like major, like lopsided blowouts are going to be more significant. I don't know, I just something, you know, I was thinking about it. I don't know if you have a take here, but the tendency stuff too. You talked about it with Kyle. One thing like Ben Johnson always gets accused of is purposely breaking, like he won't allow the defense to pick up on a tendency. So whole like, he'll weave no matter what, even if something's working, he'll purposely do something that's potentially bad, just so a defense can't pick up on it, which is. Yeah. The roundabout path. It's very daoist. I was listening to something else on the best best scrabble player in the world who, you know, what separates him from everyone else is like he would make moves that like, so like in chess, like the AI is going to beat Magnus Carlson, like 99 times at a 100, if not 100 times, but in scrabble, this guy is actually better than the best AI. And so like, instead of making what's viewed as like the optimal move that scores the most points, he will take fewer points to just like really screw over his opponent. And so yeah, that's it. It's kind of along that path. We will be back with our week three reactions Sunday night. We record that. It's out Monday morning. Thanks for sticking with us. We are out. Tammy regularly hauled stuff to her kids at college. 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