Evan Silva and Adam Levitan Round-by-Round Favorite Picks (Episode 1014)

(upbeat music) Hello and welcome to episode 1,014 of the official. EstablishTheRun.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan. I am one of the co-founders here at ETR, as always joined by fellow co-founder Evan Silva. And we are embarking on arguably the biggest drafting weekend of the entire year. It is time for final exams. Evan has gone today. We are also embarking on one of our most actionable, useful podcasts that we do leading up to drafts, leading up to drafts every season. I think that last year we had some huge, huge hits on this very show that help people win their leagues. So hopefully we can bring that back again. More importantly, for anyone on Twitter, the king himself, Evan Silva, half returned to the Twitter streets as promised. Yes, be sure you're following him at Evan Silva. Some of you younger people, I don't think you guys really understand how much Silva dominated fantasy Twitter from, I don't know, 2009 or eight until whenever he retired from Twitter because the laundry grows put him into retirement. We're not gonna let the laundry bros get him down. This year, fantasy people are welcome to reply to Evan's tweets. Lundery bros are not welcome to reply to Evan's tweets. So again, he is tweeting. Be sure you're following him at Evan Silva. On today's show, we will go round by round through the first eight rounds, discussing our favorite pick in each. This is aimed at half PPR, redraft formats. Obviously we won't get all the player rounds exactly right. We are doing our best to mimic where we think guys are likeliest to go in your league. Speaking of which, if I had a draft coming up, here's what I would do. First, I wouldn't drink for at least 72 hours before my draft. I wouldn't smoke for at least 48 hours before my draft. I would buy the ETR draft kit for just $54.99. I would consume as many articles as I could. If I had a live draft, I would print out the ranks like a man and scratch the tiered names off with a pen. In fact, an online draft, I'd use the ETR extension to get our ranks into the applets. Then during the season, I'd use Storm and Zranks, Dagle's waiver wire, and then I'd come back in January at the full 3.9 inches to collect my winnings. Very easy game. Again, that is the draft kit on EstablishTheRun.com. By the way, in all seriousness, I actually can't believe that Silva begged for subscribes on our free YouTube page a couple of weeks ago what he meant to do and allowed me to correct him here. What he meant to do is beg for subscribes on our NFL draft kit and bundle. So there you go. All right. Let's get into it here, Evan, with our perfect draft. Round by round, perfect draft. I'll let you start here, Evan, in round one, who is your perfect pick. - Well, I am all in on the lion's offense this year. So I actually have two, I wanted to have a contingent one because you have to get the first overall pick to get Jameer Gibbs. I think he's in a tear onto his own. I think that this can be a historic season. The offensive line is looking better in Detroit than it was last year. The offensive line was a big problem. And the defense is looking worse. And I also really like the addition of Drew Petsing, who it sounds like he's leaving the offense up to Jared Goff, which by all means, leave it up to Jared Goff. Don't hand over the offense like they did in the first half of the season to John Morton. That wound up being a disaster. I like the hands that the offense are in Detroit. Obviously, we got all the games in the dome, the defense in the climb. And the improvement on the offensive line, Jameer Gibbs. Obviously, no Dave and Montgomery. I mean, the ceiling is just massive, massive, massive. My second favorite first round pick is Amon Ross St. Brown. Obviously, on the same team, again, all in on the Lions. Super solid every single year with, I think, underrated ceiling because he's a slot receiver who isn't maybe quite as flashy as Jamar Chase. Maybe not quite as flashy as Pukinakua, but he can score right with those guys. Massive floor, massive upside, love Amon Ross St. Brown. I actually think that this could be Amon Ross St. Brown's best season because of the offensive environment, which I think is actually improving certainly on last year. Yeah, so we haven't talked about Amon Ross that much in this lead up to this season. Very, very safe. I think, as Evan said, the knock on him is people think his ceiling is not as big. One thing that I wanted to note about the Amon Ross stuff, they have not had a wider receiver three emerge as a target earner. The Isaac Tesla stuff does not look great. And the other point that I wanted to make on Amon Ross Outlook this year, when Jameer Gibbs is your starting running back, you should be more likely to drop back at a higher rate. When Dave Montgomery is back there, you could have more base stuff, you could have more runs up the middle. You should be throwing more if Jameer Gibbs is out there more, period. And there was no offensive coordinator in the NFL that was more willing to drop his quarterback back to pass than was Drew Petsing in Arizona, which Jacobi Berset last year. Now he's got Jared Goff, the pen ultimate prototypical pocket passer. I mean, we're gonna see a ton of pass attempts. And that's good for both Jameer Gibbs and Amon Ross St Brown. - All right, I like those. So my perfect pick for round one was the same as Silva. I think Jameer Gibbs is going to go absolutely nuclear this season. I legit cannot believe people were taking Bijan Robinson over Gibbs for a while. Just to hone in on Silva's point about Dave Montgomery being gone, Dave Montgomery had the eighth most carries from inside the five-yard line last year. And the fifth most carries from inside the five-yard line in 2024. I expect a large portion of those to go to Gibbs now. And it's not like he wasn't a touchdown score already, even with Montgomery at the goal line, Gibbs scored 18 touchdowns in 2025 and 20 in 2024. You also get the lines with a softest schedule in the NFL, only the Rams and the Bills are implied for more points. So yeah, when you say where do you want to pick, obviously you have to pick ones to get Gibbs. I could talk about structural stuff. Yes, it is easier to get those strong RB, RB heavy starts from the back of Round 1. But at the end of the day, the way we win in fantasy is by having the player or players who score an outrageous amount of points. And to me, that's clearly, clearly Gibbs. My back up for my favorite pick in Round 1 was Pukka Nikua, averaging. I repeat, averaging 7.1 catches per game through his first three NFL seasons. The billiard earned targets is just wild. And you could argue he has less competition this year. I mean, they're playing tight ends as their wide receiver three. The data is so clear, more tight ends on the field, better it is for the wide receivers that are on the field. You also have Devonta Adams, another year older, no viable wide receiver three. Pukka is 25 years old. You have him, Stafford, still the Kingmaker. So I think there's like minor risk of maybe a one game suspension at some point for Pukka. But I don't even think that's really a big risk and I'm not worried about it at all. So I would be very happy to get Pukka there at three or four overall in my draft. - If Pukka Nikua were to retire today, he would finish his career having averaged 95.3 receiving yards per game. That's the most in NFL history. As time has moved on and no suspension has come down, I think that lessens the risk of Pukka Nikua facing any suspension. And I recently moved him back up to my number three overall player in my wide receiver one overall. I mean, from a straight statistical perspective, from a projection perspective, when we first did this, we could have made a case based on just a few tweaks that Pukka should be the number one player in fantasy. Like his underlying stats, his projection for this year is so, so outrageous. In the projections, we have an idiot tax on him. Part of that idiot tax is frankly him acting like an idiot, either getting hurt or doing all field stuff. You know, so we have him at four overall. But yeah, I think Pukka easily would finish the number one fantasy player if Gibbs doesn't. All right, Silva. Let's go to round two. I fear, and by the way, Silva and I did not talk about this beforehand. We wanted to be surprised by each other's picks. So I fear we might have the same one here, Silva, but I'll let you go first. - Well, you're gonna want Kenneth Walker, right? - That was my preferred, yes, but you can take him if you want. - No, I'm not gonna take him. Why don't you go ahead on Kenneth Walker? - Okay, so my perfect pick in round two is Kenneth Walker. I actually think the Seahawks wanted to retain Kenneth Walker in free agency, but he did not want to return because he did not like that they refused to go full workhorse with him, AKA played Zack Sharbinay way too much. So based on that, I could only presume that the chiefs did promise Kenneth Walker that full workload. And the camp reports have backed that up. Walker reportedly been everywhere at camp, screen game, base work, everything in between. People are gonna knock that he's been banged up in his career at times. He's been a boom bust runner. I don't dispute that he's been banged up. Any workhorse is gonna get banged up. What I do dispute is that boom bust is bad for fantasy. Like, I think it's good. That freak athleticism that yields big plays and creates outlier games, like that's what I want. But even better for this setup, I think, for Walker the whole cover to deep thing that defenses have been doing against my homes. If Kenneth Walker gets all these light boxes, he's just going to absolutely turbo smash. So really, really excited about both the workload ability and kind of match up stuff for Kenneth Walker, my favorite pick in round two. Yeah, just some runners historically who have been considered boomer bust runners, Sichuan Barclay, Chris Johnson, freaking Barry Sanders. So definitely not always a bad thing to be a boomer bust runner. And to your point that the Seahawks wanted to resign Kenneth Walker, I think there's no doubt about it. If you remember at the Super Bowl celebration, the Super Bowl parade, John Schneider talked about it during his speech and then Cameron zoomed to Kenneth Walker, or John Schneider was talking, oh yeah, now we get a negotiate Kenneth Walker's next contract and Kenneth Walker was like, I'm hitting a free agency, you know? But yeah, I think the Seahawks wanted him back and the chiefs are going to love to have him. All right, let's hear your round two perfect picks of them. So Kenneth Walker is at the top of the round. And he was obviously my preferred pick as well in the second round. I think he belongs in the first round. So I went with a guy in Brock Bowers who will go in the middle to late later part of the second round. And I think that this is a truly generational talent, only generational talents win the Mackie Award twice. And he did it twice as an underclassman. He didn't even win as a senior because he wasn't in college as a senior. Only generational talents finished third in the NFL in receptions with 112 as a rookie. That's the most by any rookie regardless of position. Only generational talents despite suffering PCL injuries in week one, which happened to Brock Bowers last season still finish despite that injury as a top four fantasy tied in in points per game. Brock Bowers by all accounts is 100% healthy now in an offense run by Clint Kubiak who we saw, you know, and there's not a whole lot of other talent in the Raider Skill Position Corps other than, say, Ashton Genti. But that was not a problem for Clint Kubiak's offense last year because he really only had JSN in that premier pass catcher role. There was really nobody competing with JSN for targets. And Clint Kubiak still found ways to get the ball to JSN relentlessly. I think that something similar could happen with Brock Bowers this year. I think that the all bets are off as to Brock Bowers soon, like 1500 yards. If he stays healthy, over 100 catches easily. I'm so, so excited about Brock Bowers. And the quarterback upgrade, just the offensive environment upgrade. I feel good about Kirk Cousins and then the eventual transition to Fernando Mendoza. Yeah. Totally agree. Love Bowers. You know, legit chance to break tight end records at the NFL. You know, Dylan College's Silva said broke records as a rookie in the NFL. Laster was destroyed by the PCL injury. But man, if Laster didn't get destroyed by the PCL, we could see Bowers have going in round one here this year. The point that I wanted to make on Bowers is structurally. Like, I think Bowers is going roughly right. His redraft ADP is around 22 overall. There are other tight ends in redraft ADP that are not going where I think they should go. And that, to me, is like a strategy point on Bowers and Lovelin specifically. You can read more about that in my draft strategy article or in the exploiting the default rankings articles for sleeper, ESPN and Yahoo. Those are all up right now. But yeah, the tight end position, be sure you're very aware of ADP going into your draft. I think that's important there on the Bowers point. All right. So let's go to rounds three. I give you the floor for your perfect pick in round three. Well, I have three options here. And two of them are very similar to me. I think that Chris O'Lava and Nico Collins are very, very similar. And I love both of those guys. Nico Collins ADP is actually higher than Chris O'Lava right now. And I'm not sure that I agree with that. I mean, according to my rankings, I definitely don't agree with that. But either of those guys, I feel great about as round three picks at wide receiver. But the guy that I'm going to tab here is Javante Williams, who is often available closer to that third slash fourth round turn. I think that he is the beneficiary. A lot of people are talking about, oh, Jayden Blue is faded. Maybe Malik Davis could be the Cowboys number two back. Oh, Phil Mafa is still there. The beneficiary from this is Javante Williams, who I think is going to have one of the highest usage rates of any running back in the NFL this year. Brandon Thorn has the Cowboys with a top eight offensive line. So much stability coming from Dak Prescott, who has, you know, he was more of a running quarterback earlier in this career. He's a true pocket passer, a field general at this stage of his career. Even though Javante Williams is not efficient as a receiver, I think you still has a chance to catch 50 passes and score 12 plus touchdowns. Javante Williams to me, you know, as far as safe as running backs can be, you know, without the, without including the risk of injury, I think that he's got a really high floor and a really high ceiling because of his touchdown equity. Yeah. People are going to say that Javante is not talented enough to sustain the past catching role all season. I don't think Jayden Blue and Malik Davis and Phil Mafa are really going to push him, you know, and so it's hard to really poke holes in that. Like Evan said, he might not be the most efficient, but he might be the guy that's out there. And so in these drafts, if you want to start to running backs in your first three picks, there are options in round three. Evan mentioned, uh, Javante Williams as his, I had as one of my options, Breeze Hall there, um, as well as around three pick. If you don't start RB, RB, however, if you do start RB, RB, I'm going to go back to one that Silva mentioned for my perfect pick in round three. And that's Chris Alave, simply one of the best wide receivers in the NFL on a per round basis. We talked about him last year, a ton. We got a huge discount on him last year because of the concussions. We're paying closer to full price here this year in round three. I think, but I do think the upside is here. I mean, remember, the Saints started last season with Spencer Ratler at quarterback. And Alave was just kind of mad. Then Tyler Schuck gets in there. And Alave goes berserk. Now that was against a very soft schedule. But the setup this year is so clean. You know, offensive line is going to be much better. David Edwards, they got Eric McCoy's back from injury. Kevin Moore's a lot to play fast. The schedule is very good. They get 10 dome games speaking of shootouts like pass rush, corner play, a shaky. So, and then you add of the Jordan Tyson injury also, which, you know, I don't want to say it helps. Alave, but it might, you know, he might get 30, 35 percent of the targets in a single game. So Alave is probably my most exciting pick in round three. If I was going to go running back, it would probably be breeze over Javante for me, but I have no problem with either anymore thoughts on breeze. Evan Breeze versus Javante for you. I have Javante slightly ahead. I think I have Javante at RB 11 and Breeze Hall at RB 13. And that's just almost entirely. I actually think that Breeze Hall is more talented straight up, certainly better in the passing game, much more efficient in the passing game, just the offensive environment, you know, banking on that with Javante Williams and Dallas versus Frank Reich, you know, overseeing the offense with the jet. Yeah, there was a quote from Frank Reich today that kind of is making the rounds where he said, we're going to have a lot of guys contribute. Basically, I'm paraphrasing. We're going to have a lot of guys contribute, but Breeze Hall and Garrett Wilson are our bell cows. And I believe him on that, you know, I think the offense is going to run through those two guys in a huge way. Can the offense be efficient with Geno? Obviously, I hope that we're not sitting here in week six and being like, well, Geno torpedoed another offense, you know, I hope that's not the case. I don't think it will be, but I hope it's not. Let's go to round four here, Evan. Go ahead. So I have a wide receiver in a running back selected here. I think I know who you might go with. So I'm going to go with the guy I think that you will not go with. Well, I don't have a backup here. So let me, let me, all right, go ahead. I'll say mine. And if it's not, you can go. The one I have down for my perfect pick and round four is Lad Maconkey. Is that who you had? Oh my god. That's one of the guys that I have, but it's not the guy that I thought you were going to pick. So go ahead on Lad Maconkey. Okay. Perfect pick and round four for me is Lad Maconkey. There are, I don't want to get like two bogged down on Lad Maconkey. The big point that I want to make is the wider receivers in this range. I could have gone with Egg Buka or Waddle or T Higgins or Zay flowers or Devontas Smith. I'm really happy with any of them. The one that I'm highlighting is Maconkey because I do not want to overthink this too hard. Two big things on Lad. First, we go from this like Boomerish Harbaugh Roman scheme to the borderline nuts with Mike McDaniel. I know people like to make fun of my brother Mike McDaniel. You know, oh, he looks and talks like Levitan. He's not a football guy. You know, he's overrated. Come on. Even with what's left of Tua, he had H-chan and Tyreek and Waddle cooking. The EPA per play stuff. If you separate it out by play cars extremely strong, the McDaniel scheme is about getting your fast guys the ball in a place where they can do things after the catch. I think that fits Maconkey really nicely. So I want wide receiver here in this round four ranges. My big point. Second point on Lad specifically though. Keen Allen is gone. And yeah, Yeah. It scares me a little bit that McConkey wasn't great on his targets last season, but he also just didn't get enough targets and didn't get enough targets in the right spots because Keenan was soaking up so much volume as he seemingly always does. So with Keenan gone, slight roll open more, expecting more tight ends on the field, which is good for lad. And I just don't think that Quentin Johnston's that good. So lad for me there in round four. I think it's an easy one. You know, lad McConkey is a really, really easy one. It's almost too easy. It's just going to come down to health, which has been an issue for lad McConkey. It was an issue for him last year. He played the entire season banged up and it was an issue for him in college. That's really the only red flag that I could come up with on lad McConkey. I think it's easy. So you took him. My other guy was a running back Travis ETN. And I know that you're really high on him as well. And the Alvin Camera injury, I think, is overlooked as having a really positive impact on Travis ETN because Alvin Camera, the two, you don't want to give him the ball a lot. You certainly don't want to give him the ball between the tackles. But you might have been able to justify giving him the ball in passing situations and you're the goal line. And those are, I don't want to say weaknesses of Travis ETN, but he did lose his goal line role to Basel Tutten last year and I know film watchers have always had something against Travis ETN in the passing game. But he's going to get all that now. And he's going to play on the fast track. He's going to play in this offense that we have really, really high hopes for. By the way, Tyler Schuck started out training camp not performing particularly well actually at one point Nick Underhill was mentioning that maybe Spencer Rattler was outperforming him. That all has changed. Tyler Schuck has been cooking. That's good news for Travis ETN as is the quote unquote loss of Alvin Camera. I mean, the Saints are not going to be incentivized to give the ball to any of their remaining running backs with Alvin Camera out for the picture, out of the picture, indefinitely. Another high floor, high upside selection, Travis ETN in the fourth round. Yeah. I mean, one of the early moves in free agency was Travis ETN four years, 47 million. That's a lot of money for a running back. And to have him's point about Camera, I think they wanted to Camera gone. I really do. And they just like kind of mercifully brought him back. Another sign they might want to go full workhorse. They've also had a ton of other injuries in their backfield, not just Camera, they're down to Kendrick Miller right now as their only healthy backup behind Travis ETN. All right. Round five. I'm going to go first here because I again fear that we have the same guy and I need to take this guy. I need to take him. Round five. Perfect pick for me would be Luther Burton. I know all the arguments you can make against Burton. Adam, you're extrapolating a small sample from last year. He can't sustain it. He has a growing injury now. He might not play every snap. All that stuff is just noise. I don't often or really ever, well, I don't often cite the eye test when I'm talking about players. It is impossible to watch Luther Burton and not think that he's different. And it like the bear is just keep saying it. I mean, Ben Johnson can't stop. He said he's buying Luther Burton stock right now. He compared Luther Burton to Monroe St. Brown. He's talked up his root expansion as well. So Ben Johnson inherited DJ Moore and Roma Dunesay. He drafted coast and loveland and Luther Burton. DJ Moore is gone. The ones that I want to bet on are Luther Burton and coast and loveland. And the last point is just, you know, I know Evans talked about this. The bear's defense. I mean, definitely past them being a bottom five defense in the league, leading to a bunch of shootout spots. And then at the same time, if Ben Johnson saying he wants to break the record for the most points in a NFL season, you don't break the record. For most points in a NFL season, by taking your foot off the gas in the past game at any point. So I know these running back heavy starts that lead me into things like lad and Luther and a lot of age just feel so good. I'm really excited about Luther Burton this year. Evan, I know he was probably on your list here as well in round five. So I was not ignoring you there. And also I was not eating. The YouTube commenters continually accuse me of eating during shows. I'm a true focus gum. Okay, it's to keep my focus because I'm often accused of ignoring Adam. I was not ignoring you. But did you mention there that Luther Burton returned to practice today? Yes. We are recording this on Wednesday, August 26. I did not actually mention. Okay. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss it, if you said it back in practice today doing some individual stuff was Luther Burton. You know, we never really put a dock on him and it sounds like he'll be good for week one. Yeah. I never put a dock on him either. It's gum, it works. And that was going to be my pick as well as you well know. So I will go with my backup then. And that is Terry McClaren. Now there are some red flags on Terry McClaren. You know, he's 30 years old. I hate the loss of Laramie Tunsell for the Washington offense. But man, but you know, Jayden Daniels didn't have Laramie Tunsell in his 2024 rookie year when he finishes the quarterback five overall and when Terry McClaren had the best season of his career. And I love banking on that connection to be revitalized. This season Terry McClaren has always been a really, really good player. There's a reason that he goes in the fifth round. It's because of those red flags that I mentioned at the top, but he's a great value in the fifth round, playing in an offense that I think will be certainly coordinated better under David Blau than it was under Cliff Kingsbury with the return of Jayden Daniels. I mean, locked in number one receiver, I think that this is another easy one, probably not the ceiling of Lad McConkey, but for safety and plenty of ceiling in his own right, Terry McClaren in the fifth round. Yeah. So people are going to have concerns. I think I have an A on the Tunsell thing, B on McClaren age, C on Stefan Diggs ability to earn targets. Here his ADP has gone from kind of early 40s to kind of mid fifties. Now on McClaren since the dig signing and the Tunsell injury. So McClaren is, I like him, he's, I don't think I like him as much as Evan does through here. Like Christian Watson's not on my list, but I assume you prefer McClaren to someone like Christian Watson. Yeah, for safety. Yeah. I am huge on Christian Watson though. Yeah. Actually, Christian Watson is my sixth round. Okay. Okay. Okay. That's called a teaser. Okay. Perfect. Okay. So that we covered round five, round six, I'll go first year round six, Christian Watson is not mine. So I want to be clear here. This is very price specific, but for round six I did have Jaden Daniels and I could have gone with Jalen Hertz, I could have gone with Drake May also. I want to make the point though, that is an, it is an extremely deep quarterback group in fantasy this year, extremely deep. And it's a really good year for late round quarterback. But if any of that trio Daniels Hertz or May are available in this like late round six range, it's a really tough pass for me on Daniels specifically ran for eight hundred ninety one yards and six touchdowns as a rookie while completing 69% of his passes and didn't really have that much talent around him. Maybe he ran hot that year. Maybe that's the best we'll ever see of Jaden Daniels, but I want to find out because he had Steph Diggs, he had to get Conquo, he has Terry McClure and actually moving around the formation now, you know, to Evan's point Kingsbury had McClure and sitting in just one spot. He's going to move all over the formation now. Justin was so banged up last year, you know, if you watch that quarterback show, it was really bad. I mean, multiple left elbow injuries, a knee sprain, a hamstring strain, the whole season was just a mess. If Jaden Daniels had been able to sustain health last year, where would he be going like around Lamar? So I think a pretty good discount here. I just again want to be clear, I'm not forcing quarterback here. If these guys aren't coming to me, there's just so many cordbacks later that I like that I'll touch on, but yeah, it's just a really late for these dual threat quarterbacks like Jaden and May and Hertz in my opinion. The position specific stuff would be the only pushback that I would have against Jaden Daniels in the sixth round because Christian Watson goes in the sixth round because Mike Evans goes in the sixth round because often times Jameson Williams will last until the sixth round. And those were all guys that I have on my sixth round target. I actually wound up not even putting any quarterbacks in any of these rounds, but Jaden Daniels, absolutely. To your point, like if he had stayed healthy, yes, he could be being drafted ahead of Lamar Jackson. I mean, he's considerably younger if Jaden Daniels had stayed healthy last year, going ahead of Lamar Jackson, that would be certainly in play. All right. Let's hear it on your sixth round pick, which I believe is Christian Watson. Yeah. I mean, I got three guys here. Christian Watson, Mike Evans and Jameson Williams, Jameson Williams, we already talked about in just investing in the Lions offense this year, Jameson Williams, a huge part of that. We saw what he did in the second half of last season when we had some competence at play collar. The Lions are going to be throwing the cover off the ball. You know, don't worry about any kind of volume concerns for Jameson Williams. There's going to be plenty of volume. He's got, I think the arrow was still pointing up on his trajectory in his career. The arrow, the packers are certainly banking on the trajectory of Christian Watson's career. Because they gave him a lot of money and he's never even come close to even so much as having a thousand yards in a season. But we saw what he what he was able to do coming off a horrific injury last season jumps right in the lineup They start using him as a true number one receiver. I mean it was visible watching Packers games How they were moving Christian Watson around not just isolating him out at X receiver like he was playing all over the formation They paid him to be a number one receiver. He's going to be that this year in an offense And I think we all kind of agree is going to be more focused around the past and around Christian Watson No more five-man weaves at wide receiver. We're gonna get three receivers out there consistently Jaden Reed Christian Watson Matthew Golden all that is going to work to his benefit and then Mike Evans who's ADP is absolutely plummeted over the course of training camp I actually had to move them down in my rankings last night Just to react to the market. I mean I can't have a guy Essentially valued, you know at the end of the 30s when he's creeping toward the 60s in his ADP I mean, it's just it becomes a little irresponsible at some point So I moved down Mike Evans to I'm still comfortably ahead of his ADP and I want Mike Evans Because I mean this is he's gonna get really good quarterback play in a great offensive environment under Kyle Shanahan You know Kyle Shanahan every single year of his career as a coach Whether be as an assistant back in Washington. He's made the most of the players that he has had And I think that this can be a big year for Mike Evans if he stays healthy I understand why his ADP has gone down Because he hasn't stayed healthy throughout training camp the longest training camp in league history Yeah, it's hard for me to tell whether Mike Evans is actually hurt during this camp or if he's just like I'm 33 years old I'm one of the best wide receivers ever. I'm just gonna rest, you know, and I'm not gonna I'm gonna pull myself out of practice. Honestly with his price. You're gonna say I'm crazy I think people are scared of the substation. I think they hear about all the injuries Mike Evans has had and they believe the substation stuff which I'm not even saying is right or wrong But like they don't want to click Mike Evans and his ADP like Evan said has been plummeting and get him in the 60s now are pretty comfortably Pretty regularly there on Mike Evans All right Let's go to round seven I Think this one is might surprise Evan. I'm not sure but my perfect pick in round seven is Parker Washington the important note for me on Parker Washington is that he is playing the slot in three wide receiver sets And he's staying on the field in two wide receiver sets that role has been extremely productive in Liam Cohen schemes Historically the other big note for me that happened this camp is that we found out Travis Hunter is Exclusively practicing at the X spot if slash when Travis Hunter comes on the field I expect it to be at the cost of Brian Thomas Jr Not Parker Washington, so I can make a case that Parker Washington is the clear wide receiver one for a passing offense Which closed last season on a tear and is now going into their second year with Cohen on the sticks It's just late, you know, it's late to be able to get a player in this role with this quarterback play Even if you think last season was a bit fluky relative to Parker Washington's talent and also shout out Penn State So yeah, you know, I think Parker Washington is gonna go all over the place in redraft leagues I could see people taking him in round five I could see people being like this guy sucks. He's not a great prospect He's not doesn't go until round eight or nine So I think if you can get him in round seven I think that's a really good deal on Parker Washington. I think he's a button smash in the seventh round All right, absolutely. He's a guy that I started off Kind of being like I don't know how to rank him. There's four receivers here There's two tight ends that they could play You know, and his training camp is forgot I wound up just kind of taking a stand on Parker Washington having him inside my top 30 Receivers separating him from Brian Thomas and I started getting him in my own drafts And I feel really good about that and I also agree that he could go anywhere in the fifth round and if he creeps into the seven button smash. Yeah So my seventh round options here were JK Dobbins and Chris Godwin both kind of gross But that's why they go in the seventh round I'm gonna focus on JK Dobbins here. I think that one thing that that kind of people lose sight of is that JK Dobbins Because you know the injury history and RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman JK Dobbins is really really freaking good 5.2 yards per carry average in his career He was at 5.1 last year he can pass block so he's gonna play a ton of snaps because the Broncos trust him I don't think that he has a ton of ceiling if you got 40 catches It would be a huge huge win and obviously the injury history But the Broncos have the best offensive line in football. They have a top three to top five defense What that combination gives you is like great field position and I mean because teams are not going to move the ball on them consistently and they're gonna be able to impose their will offensively with JK Dobbins as their clear cut lead back before he went down last year JK Dobbins was averaging 16.2 Touches per game. I think the RJ Harvey is pretty clearly a niche back a change up type I really like Jonah Coleman As a later round pick. I'm doing a sleepers article right now and Jonah Coleman is very near the top of the list in terms of my sleepers But JK Dobbins is the clear lead back when all these dudes are healthy and I think for as long as he lasts He's going to be a guy that you can start every week in redraft So the pushback on Dobbins is going to be the past game stuff You know and beyond the injury stuff. JK Dobbins only caught 11 passes in the 10 games that he played last season With Bo Nick so it's hard to find I think like the huge ceilings on JK Dobbins But to Evan's point he has been a Incredible rush of the football and I think they want him to be in that role the other question that I think people are gonna have is Yes, JK Dobbins has been incredible at what point did injuries catch up? He has had so many severe injuries. Will he continue to be as efficient as he's been historically off yet another Series injury. I mean, it's crazy. This guy is like the bionic man But at some point it's just gonna run out for him But yeah, I think it's a little high for me on JK Dobbins, but I don't dislike him, you know I should say Chris Godwin right now is the most stable of the Bucks pass catchers Yeah, K. Dodd and we know he's gonna be on the field a lot really really low targets per route throughout his career Imeca Agbuca has the toe injury Jalen McMillan has been banged up and getting pushed by Ted Hearst Chris Godwin is not a Super sexy click at this stage of his career Unfortunately, but this is the healthiest he's been in a long time and his role is very very stable So for a non-sexy pick in the seventh round Chris Godwin I like yeah if Chris Godwin is himself. He's gonna smash You know he is set up so well if he's himself. I fear he's no longer the player that he once was But that's why he's available this late obviously. All right Let's go to round eight I am gonna go with Jaden Reed as my perfect pick in round eight Evan are mentioned Christian Watson Jaden Reed is entering his fourth NFL season. This is the cleanest setup of Jaden Reed's career The Packers are extremely thin a tight end like all that Jaden Jaden Reed needs to be on the field He has not been on the field enough this year though the Packers are extremely thin a tight end They pay Jaden Reed a $50 million contract in April in other words I'm expecting them to have the highest three wider severs set rate In recent memory the Packers and then we also add in dobs has gone wicks has gone the Packers can't won't I don't think they want to rotate their wider severs as much So he's gonna be on the field a ton and then we know Jaden Reed is a baller career 2.09 yards per round run Over 129 Passive rating when thrown at just really strong in every advanced stats So again like the players that I like through this range like for me Jaden Reed versus JK Dobbins I would take Jaden Reed and so like that's why I'm more running back heavy early is because I want to be taking wide receivers here later Like Christian Watson who I really like like Jaden Reed and like to all the other wide receivers that I've mentioned So yeah, I know you're on this seven because you're on Christian Watson But any more thoughts on read they can go with your perfect pick in round eight. I like all the Packers receivers this year I mean, I like the offense as a whole and that it's Gritting my teeth a little bit because I'm a little bit worried about the offensive line But I also trust in MATLA floor MATLA floor will be very very Cognizant of the fact that he's dealing with an offensive line that isn't as good as Packers offensive lines have been in years past But yeah Jordan love Jaden Reed Christian Watson Matthew Gold and Tucker craft I mean, I think that they're all pretty good values in fantasy as well So I've wound up with a ton of them and Jaden Reed is very very near the top of the list in the eighth round for me I had three guys. We talked a lot about Josh Downs I mean everybody's talked about diswan struggling. I'm gonna go with Dalton King Cade And in a lot of drafts, you might not have to draft them in the eighth round. You might be able to get them in the ninth or 10th But he's a player that I'm willing to reach for in the eighth round if I don't have a tight end if tight end if there's been a run on tight ends Dalton King Cade is my breakout pick at the position this season His yards per route run is elite elite Over the course of his career really it's just been his playing time And I don't even think that he needs to be that don't can kick needs to be a a full, a true full-time tight end to realize his potential and to lead the bills in receiving. I think he just needs a little bit of a bump and his efficiency will turn into more volume and he'll be a player that we can lean on week to week. And I knock on wood. There have been no talk. There's been no talk of any injuries for Dalton King Cade throughout training camp. I like DJ Moore okay. But I don't think at this stage of his career, he's a player that is capable of jumping in and dominating targets. I think Dalton King Cade could be that guy this year. So he's become one of my favorite tight ends to draft in the true middle rounds of fantasy leagues. - Yeah, I like King Cade a lot. I thought maybe we could get him a little bit later than this round eight, but I'm not sure. On that really depends on your league. And when you start to see the tier of La Porta, craft, fan and pits go, if all those guys start going early, that's when you know that you might have to get on King Cade there a little bit earlier if you want him. I don't think King Cade's gonna suddenly get up to like 90 or 95% of the snaps. But if you can just play 70% run 75% of the routes. - Give me 65. - And I think we're cooking. - I mean, and based on what it's been like this whole off season, I'm talking about going back to OTA's mini camps and now training camp. He has been extremely, extremely healthy. So that is for round eight, I had Jaden Reed. Silver had Dawn King Cade. Bubble guy for me here, I just wanted to mention was Stribbling. The price could be all over the place on Stribbling. Like I could see him going in round six, around seven. I would not do that. I could see Stribbling going in round 10, 11, 12, two. Somewhere in between there, I want to take a swing on Stribbling in this Jawan Jennings plus role. He's just so much of a better prospect and player and athlete than Jawan Jennings was. And then the real ceiling case for Stribbling comes in if Christian McCaffrey or Mike Evans where Kittle goes down. So yeah, Stribbling was like a borderline one for me. And then just for quarterbacks, I just wanted to mention Jared Goff, we've talked enough about the lion stuff, but I think the lions set up this year from a scheduled opponent perspective. Guilds, a lot of outcomes where Jared Goff goes over 4,000 yards, maybe pushes for 5,000 yards and pushes for 40 touchdowns. So yeah, and like Gibbs is his running back now. I mean, even the screen passes are going to go for more than they did with Montgomery. And it's just such a great get up set up for Goff. I like platooning with him. So like Goff and Kyler or Goff and Baker or Goff and Malik Willis or Jordan Love or Nix or Purdy or whatever you want. That entire tier of quarterback is flat and strong. And like if you don't do what I said about the Jaden Daniels, Drake May, Jalen Hertz type stuff, two of these guys I think makes a lot of sense there at the quarterback position. All right, that's going to do it for our annual round by round favorite picks show. Appreciate everyone who has been tuning in all summer. It feels like we're reaching the end here of camp. But alas, we are not. The season still has another two weeks. So be sure you are subscribed. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, the preseason still has another two weeks. So be sure to subscribe to here. On YouTube, it is totally free. And if you have a draft coming up, check out draft kit or the bundle on establishtherun.com. There's so much in there. I'm not going to sit here and take the time to go through everything that is in draft kit. And in season, go to the site. Check out the content schedules. Check out the content lists. I guarantee something will catch your eye. Four, Evan, it's pretty serrient. Bruce Reluk, I'm Adam. Good luck, everybody. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)