ETE Projections Special Part 8: NFC East with Ben Gretch

[Music] Hello and welcome to another episode of the Establish Siege podcast. I'm your host Mark Dengbring and we'll be joined today by the projections crew you know and love. Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. Jack and I are part of the NFL projections team here at Establish the Run entering our fourth year together. Doing this full-time meanwhile Gretch is our honor guests throughout this series. Out here grinding through these episodes despite being on two other podcasts you can now listen to. She's the Ellen bananas with Sean Segal and the Longview with Jacob Sanderson. You can also find his written work at bengretch.substac.com. Today marks our last episode of this projection series. We'll be going through the NFC East all four teams out there but just off the top here just wanted to express some gratitude you know on being able to do this series this year. Truly can't express how awesome it was to do this big shout out and thanks to Gretch for for taking the leap with us you know and we are kind of introduced to him by Leoni to potentially take over this summer. Neither Jack or I had ever necessarily talked with Gretch or worked with him specifically. So Gretch huge shout out to you really learned so much throughout the process and extremely grateful for the opportunity and then Jack you crushed it as well. It's been awesome to work with you and see you grow over the last few seasons really thought your insight came through in a meaningful way throughout this series and was invaluable. So pump for another NFL season with you Jack but Gretch it's our last show here. Should we should we go three hours to commemorate how you feel? Yeah. This last episode. I mean that that would be my big takeaway from this year over some of the last years was it did it. The shows were longer right? The the amount of time we had like scheduling's harder when you have three people. It's like little things like that you don't think about with Leoni. I mean we're both sad dads. We would just like fine time on like a Sunday night like hammer out to back to back or whatever. Little bit trickier. I think we did most of our recording over like three weeks spans in the past and I think ours with you guys this time was maybe more like four or five weeks span and again longer shows. So it's been a little bit of a labor of love but I've really enjoyed working with you guys. It's had a different feel but like I I mean I think it's been great and I always say this every year with Leoni. I mean it with you guys I think you guys at ETR have the best projections in the industry so it's such an honor for me to get the opportunity to like test the stuff that I'm looking at against what you guys have. Here your guys is feedback. So it's just an incredible opportunity for me. Thank you for having me on again. Of course man yeah certainly invaluable appreciate appreciate the respect and shout out there obviously we have we have a full team at ETR helping us out with with data science and then obviously Jack and I and Leoni on the player input so truly impressive to see you you do it all on your own there. Gretch but Jack we made it to this last episode without getting booted by ETR corporate how you feeling today entering episode eight here. I'm feeling good we're coming up on I think this will put us over 20 total hours of recorded podcasts so shout out to the listeners for putting up with 20 plus hours of us talking about I mean going through the Widers Zero 5s on every NFL team you guys are real sickos shout out the mark for filling in the host chair that's not an easy role to fill I think he's done a very good job at it but I'm excited to talk about the final division the NFC East today. Yes sir let's get into it and we are going to start in Dallas with the Cowboys a decent bit of continuity here for our first team Brian Shottenheimer returns as head coach and play collar they bring back George Pickens on the franchise tag as well you know no massive news to talk about in terms of kind of players departing or coming in they do lose Jalen Tolbert as the why as they're you know wide receiver three here so runway a little clear for Ryan Florenoid but let's talk through the team level inputs here for the Cowboys at ETR we're at 63.6 plays Gretches at 64.4 we're both at an even 61% pass rate here so just kind of looking at at the Cowboys over the years you know they've been second in place for game in 2025 fourth and 2024 and second in 2023 has been consistently sustainably high for Dak Prescott in this offense over the season so again a lot of continuity here Jack what are your decisions is this the top for you guys it's a top for me in terms of plays for game yeah right yeah they are they are first for us and projected plays for game I I think a lot due to that consistency over the years with with Dak at at the helm here yeah but yeah so Jack take us through our your team level thoughts here for Shottenheimer and the Cowboys entering year two under his his reign yeah I think we mostly know how to expect here Pat Thorman pointed out in his pace preview that the Cowboys have been top 8 and overtime adjusted plays for game every year since 2019 that's across a variety of play colors I think Dak Prescott really keeps this a fast offense regardless of who's calling plays and then with Shottenheimer they've been between 11th and 18th and pass rate over expectations three straight years didn't really see a big departure last year with him taking the head coaching job so I think that this from a team level standpoint is one of the easier teams to project they're going to be fast you know what to expect from from a PRO East standpoint and I'm not really surprised to see us and Gretz both within a play and then we actually have the exact same called pass rate at 61% here yeah the team level stuff we we really got dialed over the second half of of this series so some of the early ones I think I mentioned this on another show it was like are we not going to be as dialed this year but got a lot more down it helps when you get Thorman's pace and snaps article it started influence my read on a lot of this stuff he's obviously the go to that but as you guys said I mean it goes back I think even further top eight or I may be mentioned this but top eight in plays for seven straight years I mean spend a Dak thing for a really long time they had a slight negative PR real last year but we K teen was a run heaviest game with the starters out and they also had lamb missing a little bit of time and they also the 29th toughest schedule this year but like a solid win total I'm expecting a pretty you know the them to be in competitive games some shootouts this looks like a team you want to have exposure to the football for sure on on a macro level we have Dallas projected for the six most touchdowns on the season for us and then in terms of personnel usage last year the Cowboys were six in the NFL with a 68% 11 personnel usage and and shot and Heimer was asked if you wanted to get into more 13 personnel usage this season his his response was no I think we're always going to try to play our best players we think there's a lot to getting our weapons and speed on the field so this is something we kind of hit on earlier in in this series is you know not not every team is is is going to leave into the heavier personnel and in shotty kind of rebutting that that potential for the Cowboys this year obviously with with CDLAM and in that era and George Pickens leading the wider receiver room and then again for no way you know probably stepping into that wider receiver three-row this season but let's go into the DAC projections again since we're similar on a team level here we're also similar on DAC and have a good sample size on him you know the probably the biggest difference we're at 7.6 yards per attempt Gretches at 7.8 we consistently come in a little bit lower again on just kind of the quarterback efficiency here but we both have DAC completing 66 and a half percent of his passes or or even a little bit higher Gretches about 300 yards clear of us and in the total passing yards department that has 32 touchdown passes we're at 30 there so I think Jack you know for for DAC press got here my big note was since he fractured his ankle in 2020 the the rushing contributions have really fallen off from a fantasy standpoint he's only average 160 rush yards over the last five seasons meanwhile in his first four seasons in the in the NFL he was averaging over 300 rush yards per season also had 21 rush touchdowns in his first four years he's only at seven rushing touchdowns in his last five so we are expecting all almost all of his fantasy production to come through the air how are you viewing this outlook for DAC press got in 2026 yeah I think you know you're getting from DAC he doesn't get designed around to scramble he was done to 3.3 percent last year so like you said you're not getting a lot of rushing contribution but the Cowboys are projected for the sixth most or they're implied I should say for the six most points per game we know they're going to score a lot of points we know they're going to play really fast we know that because really good weapons especially a wide receiver and he's been efficient as well so I think that DAC is a fine fantasy quarterback he might not have he might not have like the true elite elite ceiling given the lack of rushing but the passing efficiency here does have the potential to be really good and we know that they're going to run a run a lot of plays and throw a lot of passes so I think that DAC is kind of like the team level more of a straightforward projection in terms of quarterback points per game DAC has finished as high as as could be four in in 2023 and as low as could be 20 in 2024 so a bit of a gap they're grouched you have much concern over over DAC entering this season no I I'm actually really optimistic I think he continues to put like this is more of like a film thing from you know writing signals every week and everything but I think he continues to put together really great years to the middle of his career right now that I I think he's always a bit underappreciated honestly I do think he's just getting better over time like some of these pocket passers do you mention less running last year his sacrate also fell a little bit as his dropbacks were really high and one of the things that I think it's the emphasis here is similar to some of the other guys that we talk about with the efficiency on volume at quarterback the putting everything on his shoulders and throwing into difficult pass coverages it's not easy to be as efficient on the volume he's doing it at he was wonderful. The two passers over 600 attempts last year. He led the league in completions. He was one of only three passers over 4,500 yards and four guys over 30 past TDs. Comp percentage was up slightly past TD rate was solid and reception rate was a career low. Yards per attempt strong. This guy continues to just get better and better. Obviously the George Pickens breakout helps that along a little bit. Lamb missed a little bit of time. We'll get into him and I would expect that hopefully, you know, you'd get a healthier season at a lamb. You talked about Flor Noia as the new wide receiver three. I think this is the best trio of receivers that they've had in a really long time. Basically since I'm already Cooper left and you had young CD lamb and Michael Gallup. But I mean, there's an argument Flor Noia is like better than Gallup. Prime CD lamb's gonna be better than young CD lamb. I think Pickens is probably better than Cooper was at that time. I mean, this might be the best trio of wide receivers. It was part of why the efficiencies high you mentioned on the Yards per attempt. I'm seeing this as like, I always project the, you know, the more optimistic stuff. If these guys are healthy, I have more of the volume going to the wide receivers as a whole, taking away a little bit from like a Jake Ferguson, which is, I mean, Ferguson's fine, but it's gonna be a lower Yards per attempt on those types of throws. And so I'm actually like pretty optimistic about how good of a passing season deck at that even with the lack of rushing. And to Jack's point, you know what you're getting. But I do think there's like incremental improvement and it may even be that much better. Yeah, I like it for sure. Let's go to the back field here. Javante Williams was one of fantasies. I think bigger, bigger breakouts last year, certainly, you know, helped, helped people win a lot of leagues as he was going in the double digit rounds and then came out as the Cowboys, you know, day one starter and held that roll throughout the season. So inputs wise on Javante for this season at ETR, we're at 214 rush attempt scratches at 220. We're at 36 and a half targets. Crutch is at 45 here. In terms of the backup role, we have it split between Jane and Blue and Phil Maffa, Malik Davis, those three. We actually tilted it a little bit towards Jane and Blue recently as, you know, he's the youngest of this back field as well as has kind of gotten more of the offseason coach peak here has has blue and does profile to, you know, potentially take some pass catching work away. That's kind of where I want to start with Javante Williams because he had a horrible receiving output last year, only a 0.44 yards per out run and 2.7 yards per target according to our SIS data, just absolutely brutal, you know, production there and JJ Zachary has done some research on lower, you know, yards per out run metrics for running backs, leading to decreased target volume in the following season. So with Jane and Blue kind of getting some hype, I'm a little bit worried that the receiving role for Javante will be reduced this season. But in terms of the goal line role, I don't think there's, you know, any question there necessarily. So Jack Harvey viewing Javante Williams again, going, going much higher in drafts this year, kind of the end of the third round, but we've been head of ADP on him so far this year. How you doing Javante going into his second season as the Cowboys starting back? - Yeah, I think he should be the clear workhorse from a rushing perspective at least. Through the first 14 weeks of the year, he had only two games under a 69% design carry share. That's really good. He had a neck injury in week 15 and then he only outcarried Malik Davis 37 to 36 from weeks 15 to 17. The Jerry Jones called it a top priority to resign Javante and they did that before for agency started. I do think that the receiving workboat is a little bit in question with how much the Cowboys have been talking of blue all off season, blue had 42 catches in his final season of college. The Cowboys in general haven't been throwing to running back so that much over the past couple of years. The last two years, 13.5% running back cargature and 13.9% running back cargature. And now Likred said this is potentially the best fighter super trio. That press got as I ever had, which could push even more targets toward the vice receivers and away from running backs. And given Javante's receiving inefficiency last year, 2.7 years per target according to our numbers that could go away if they trust blue. It'll be interesting. They've been talking up blue all off season. John Heimer said that blue brought a great work ethic to OTAs and will be a huge part of what we want to do. All the reporting seems to be that they want him to be the complimentary back to Javante Williams. And it's kind of up to him to actually seize that opportunity. It doesn't-- last year didn't really seem like they ever trusted him. Maybe some maturity type issues for Jaden Blurse are going into year two. Ideally, that's fixed, I think, in the Cowboys eyes. I think it is a little bit interesting to think through what happens if Javante goes down. Blue only had 134 carries in his final season at Texas. He weighed in at 196 pounds at the NFL Combine. They do have Phil Mauffa, who they drafted in the seventh round last year. He missed most of last year with an injury, but he did have 561 career carries. It clumps him. The thing is the last year in regained team blew out carried Mauffa 16 to five. So you did see them leaning into blue with their rushing workload without Javante. So I think that that's a good sign in Blue's favor. But I still think-- I still think it's at least worth thinking through what the split looks like if Javante misses time between Blue and Mauffin. They still have Malik Davis. Maybe he figures in. But I think that they want Blue to take a step forward, particularly in the receiving games since Javante struggled so much there last year. And I think that as we get into camp, which starts next week for Cowboys veterans, we'll kind of see whether that's going to materialize and whether the concerns the play them as a rookie have kind of gone away as the Cowboys hope they will. There's a lot of great stuff there that I want to hit on. As far as Blue, I've had a hard time with them. I was really into them last year. I've had a hard time with him from a couple perspectives. But I do completely agree that they seem to really want him to take that role and go with it. And it's kind of how they do things. They did that with Rico doubt all a few years ago. They kind of just decide who they want to take these roles. And then they make them available. Did it with Jaylen Tolbert a couple of years ago. And he was just not good enough for number two wide receiver. Blue, one of the issues with the breakout profile for him is Hunter Leppke, who they definitely still like. There were some early offseason quotes that were, I mean, just weird. There's just like, we want to find Brian Schottheim in early off season was like, we want to find more ways to use Hunter Leppke, which I don't believe, but also doesn't suggest that they see the stuff that they are doing with him and stuff that they want to get rid of. And I think there was something about their exit interviews. He came in and he was talking about, that he could help the team more. And Brian Schottheimer in the media was like, and I agree with him. I'm like, why do you agree with him? What is that? But they used him a lot in a third down and long down in distance role. If he's getting that segment of the target volume, Javonte is still going to get some as the lead back. Then how does Blues receiving role actually materialize into enough volume is sort of the way that I'm concerned about that. And then you talk about the handcuff element of it, which is like does he get enough with the rushing, which Jack laid out. And so there's this question for blue, for me on both sides of it. And then there's also question of like, is he just good? Like is he good enough? Because he struggled last year. It does sound like that was all maturity stuff. And they're saying all the right stuff there. But when you have the Leppke thing and then you have the contingent value concerns, they do have Malik Davis in Film Offa as well. I don't really know how that's going to shake out. It feels like it's got to be two of those three because they're going to have Leppke active as well. And so it's not really clear to me who has the lead. You guys have a lot more from Offa than me. I've kind of been thinking that Moffa would be left out because with Malik Davis, I mean, he actually was getting work later in the year. Javonte had whatever his health thing was. - He had like a neck and shoulder issue that showed that caused him to, yeah, to miss some time. In the last, like, I think it was two of the last three games. See, he left early and Malik Davis stepped into that RB2 role. - So 15, 16, 17, he heard himself in 15. He played through it for a few weeks. Davis actually out snapped him in that three game span and he got 20 carries in week 17 and posted the team's first 100 yard rushing day since Javonte in week seven. That's Malik Davis. Week 18, you mentioned that they had both blue and Moffa active. I mean, I think they did this because they wanted to get the young guys work. But they made Davis inactive along with Javonte. It was sort of like, Davis is part of our first team. We're going to deactivate him and play the rookies and give Jaden Blue room to make a lot of, 'cause it's almost like if we have Davis active, we have to use him ahead of Jaden Blue is like one of the ways to parse that. I mean, again, very tough to parse. Malik Davis is not like anything special, but he looked solid for a stretch. He had a nice run, I believe, on Thanksgiving, as well, like a long touchdown run. And so down the stretch, he was starting to actually earn some real work. I think the convenient thing is to be like, Malik Davis is not going to be involved and it's going to be Javonte, Jaden Blue, film off. The maybe inconvenient truth would be that Malik Davis might actually be the number two, right? For rushing work. And if Javonte Williams is out, he may be the guy that ends up getting the volume. He's not a huge backer or anything, though. So I don't, I mean, Moffa does have size. I never really liked them off of profiles. They're big, dude, but also doesn't seem to have a ton of explosion. It's more just three yards in a cloud of dust to me from what I'm seeing in the numbers. Doesn't even have like a ton of yards after contact. One of the things I mentioned last year was that Blue actually had more yards after contact per attempt as this small scat back than Moffa did. As this big physical back, it's kind of not what you'd expect out of a bigger back like Moffa, but he didn't test real well. He's not particularly explosive. He reminds me of just like big backs that like AJ Dillon kind of turned into this. He had a better athletic profile coming out, but he kind of turned into this, I'm just big and I just get you three yards. Anyway, I'm concerned about the blue thing. I wanna be in on it for two speed. Like you have a very exciting profile in a great offense. And that gets back to the Javonte thing for me as well. As part of the reason I wanna be in on blue is I agree with you guys. I wanna be out on Javonte. I had the same note about the yards per out run and the great work that JJ did. I think starting last year, one of the specific things about that work was for dead zone type running backs. And it's not just necessarily to get less receiving. I don't think I think it's that they're just bad picks. Like in fantasy, like their actual production ends up being worse the next year. When you see that poor of receiving efficiency with Javonte, that is a pretty big concern for me. Another low key concerning number is he had a 13.4% targets per out. That was a career low by more than six percentage points. He always had a really great three down profile in Denver and got volume in that Sean Payton offense on a per out basis. There was pretty clearly like not intent, like he's out there a lot and he's running routes but not intent to throw to him in the past game. And then when they did, he was terrible. So you kind of understand that side of it. Like the yards per target was really, really poor, as you mentioned. And then as far as the rushing, he was good last year. Clear bounce back. And I should say before I'd say all this in Javonte, I was really in on him in his last year in Denver when he was terrible and I was out on him last year. So I know nothing about Javonte Williams. But in terms of his rebound, mistackles force per touch pre injury. 2021 is a rookie.289. 2022 up until that injury was at 0.333. That was the year two breakout season that I was hoping for. That's what was in the profile out of North Carolina was this guy's an evasive monster. Post injury starting in 2023, 2024. It's like half of that 0.148 and 0.155. That's part of why I was out. I was like even two years removed from the injury. He's still at 0.155. He's nowhere near where he was in the evasion rate. All of this is getting back to how much did he improve in 2025 0.213. He came back up from that 0.15 range to the 0.21 to the low 0.2s. But he was not up around like 0.3. Like he was pre injury as a rookie and what he was as a prospect 'cause he had greater vision down in college. As far as like the long view stuff, did he come all the way back? Is he completely removed from the knee injury? I don't know that he is. They did give him the new contract. I completely agree with Jack. They're gonna make him the workhorse. He's gonna get a ton of volume. My projection on him is a lot of work. I do think he's like a clear dead zone back this year. Like he's a very fragile profile from the, I mean, he's gonna get a lot of work and he's gonna get the goal line working. You're gonna probably get that small hit. It depends on how you, I guess, discuss the dead zone. Jack, you've written about the dead zone over the US more in Bestball. The small hit volume can work in Bestball a little bit more. When I think about it from redraft, this is, that's when I say clear dead zone. Like I want to avoid this type of profile 'cause I want the running back to have this huge ceiling and that's kind of the way that I approach it. The dead zone research and, anyway, I think he's like a small hit and maybe a big miss with that, a big red flag on the receiving side. Although I don't know that there's a backup that would like take the work if he's healthy. It seems like he would have to be more injury related. It's a very complicated, Javante is the clear one, how the backups settle. And then what Javante's profile actually is, again, I just wanted to emphasize. I think it's really interesting. I'm projecting him for solid rushing efficiency for sure this year 'cause he looked good and he did, he played well. He did have some long runs early in the year and it did kind of fade a little bit as things went. So he's just one that I'm a little bit wary of. I don't know that he was back to what the promise of young Javante Williams was. - Brandon Thorn did come in at number nine overall in the Cowboys offensive line rankings, which I thought was a good sign for Javante as well, again, since we expect most of his work to be done on the ground last season. He was at 4.8 yards per carry. He's at 4.2 in his career. We're projecting 4.3, Gretchen a little bit higher at 4.4 there, but certainly, you know, Gretchen a little bit regression in the yards per carry department. And I think a little bit pessimistic on the target volume. Just in terms of Jain Blue potentially earning the RB2 role over Malik Davis. You know, Jain Blue is 24 years old, Malik Davis is 28. You know, don't win in that silly, just like simplify it down to that analysis. But I do think the Cowboys, obviously, if you Jain Blue, more as like the long-term option as the RB2, even if you know, Javante went down like Malik Davis, I do think probably Wood Mixon for carries as well as Moffa has a shot there as well. And yeah, the Hunter Luki point is important to note, just given that they do trust him a lot in pass protection and did use him a lot on third down in that role, which I do think is another roadblock to Jain Blue getting more of those pass-down snaps, just hasn't proven it at the NFL level that he can pass protecting. And we know that the Cowboys trust Luki in that role. Okay, let's go to this pass-catching room. We mentioned that this is one of the most exciting Y receiver rooms to talk about in the NFL CD Lamb up top George Pickens as Y receiver two. And then Ryan Flaunoy, who really capitalized on the time when Lamb was out last season. He figures a slot into the Y receiver three role. They also have Kamate Turpin and Marquez Valda Scantlin remains alive here in this Y receiver room. So in terms of inputs here on CD Lamb, we're at 140 targets, Gretches at 152. On George Pickens, we're at 118 targets, Gretches at 129. And then on Flaunoy, we're at 50 and a half targets, Gretches a little bit higher than us at 64. So pretty much identical gap between Lamb and Pickens, we're about 11 targets behind Gretches there, but we are 13 and a half targets behind on Flaunoy. So Jack, wanna toss it your way first, Chris, you're vibe on this Dallas wide receiver room. Do you think CD Lamb is going at the end of the first? Do you think he deserves that with the George Pickens break out? And then George Pickens going at the two, three turns. So we have two pass catchers here, going in like the first two rounds for a team. How do you see it breaking down for the Cowboys this year? - I think CD is a fine pick. He was still clearly ahead of Pickens from a target's career out run perspective. He was at 27% last year Pickens was at 23% that number dropped to 22% for Pickens. When CD was on the field, there was a little bit of a decrease from CD's peak. In terms of target per hour run, he was at 30% target per hour run in both 2023 and 2024. We saw that drop to 27% last year. He was still at 9.2 yards per target. That was very, very efficient. Despite having some really bad drops, they cost him a lot of yards, they cost the Cowboys in some high leverage moments. Still at 2.4, 4 yards per hour run. I think that he's still clearly the White receiver won here. I don't have much problem with him at the end of the first round. Pickens, 23% target per hour run, more efficient than lamb per target at 10.4 yards per target. They actually have the same yards per hour run per hour numbers with Pickens getting fewer targets per hour, but more yards per target. And then we saw the ceiling for Pickens if lamb ever misses time in three games without lamb. He had 28%, 14% and 32% target shares in those three games. He had four touchdowns in those three games and 359 total receiving yards. He had one quack game during that stretch, but two just completely monster games where he was like 150-ish yards or so. And then for him, though, I was really interesting last year. Mark U-Tweeted yesterday. He only had a 30% route rate with both CD and Pickens on the field last year, and they still have Comante Turpin, who ran 38% of routes for them last year. It did drop to 21% over the last four games. Maybe as the Cowboys started to see what they had a little more. In Flernoy, I think that the routes question is fair. I don't think Turpin is going to suddenly drop to like, not playing, and it's going to be Flernoy all the time. But I think Flernoy is probably pretty good, and he has two pronged upside. With if either CD or Pickens missed time, he's going to step into a pretty full time role. He had a 22% target per hour run for the season 8.5 yards per target, 1.83 yards per hour run. Those are all really good numbers. He was a day three pick coming out of a small school, so it kind of makes sense that it took him a little while to get going, and he spent a lot of time in school, which I think maybe is a little more defensible considering he did come from a small school and took some time to get discovered. But I think Flernoy is really interesting as a contingent upside play. I know that we talk about that a lot more at running back, and a lot of the times it's not really up-likable at wide receiver. But I think that this is probably an example where it is. Flernoy had two 100-yard games. Last year we've seen what he can do in a bigger role. It's just that with Lamb and Pickens kind of blocking his path to a full time role, the normal role with him as the wide receiver three likely isn't that interesting. But if one of those guys goes down, I think that he could be a legit fantasy starter. - Yeah, I think he'd have to legit flip Jake Ferguson kind of in the target packing order, which could potentially happen. I mean, Ferguson's targets have been quite inefficient over the years. But I do think it was not really that with CD-LAM off the field, last season, Flernoy had a 30% target per out run, and Pickens was only at 26% Pickens was out on the field. You know, quite a bit more, but Flernoy really did dominate those opportunities. But with Pickens and Lamb on the field, it was only a 13% target per out run. So you definitely need that to come up if he's gonna have any base value as a wide receiver. And, and, and, Gresh, before I let you chime in here, on the Lamb and Pickens thing, I would say my only concern over CD-LAM is if the touchdown upside is going to be there. We saw that dip last year. He had only three touchdowns, which was easily a career low. The yardage and targets, you know, across the season were really strong, but he was third on the team in terms of red zone targets with Pickens and Jake Ferguson ahead of him. So, you know, when we're talking about, talking about first round wide receivers. Obviously we want the profile to be pretty impeccable. And I'm a little bit worried just giving pickins and Ferguson's renewal here in offense that CDLAM might be third in terms of touchdown pecking order. Gretchen, I'm curious if you have any insight there. In terms of our projections, your point six touchdowns ahead of us on both LAM and pickins. So we're like in lockstep on the TD rate for those two. But I would say that's probably my biggest concern on LAM. Not necessarily the target earning by any means. LAM is the, LAM's TDs are the one thing that I, like in my note, I wrote that I'm not really buying LAM's low TD rates the past two years, unless there's a good reason for it. I'm missing and I was going to actually ask you guys about it. I had it as like a question. I don't, I don't have like a lot of insight on it. I'm basically just saying I'm not buying it because he had higher TD rates earlier in his career. The big thing about the last two years of LAM is he's played hurt a ton over the last two seasons. And he's one of these guys when you look through his per game log as well. If you look at his numbers on a per game basis, you're going to miss some stuff because he only played seven snaps in week three last year. He only played about half of week 14 due to a concussion. He wound up being one of his best games of the year. He was on his way to a 200 yard game against the Lions, got a concussion and he only played half a week 18 as well. So you get this other which wasn't even health related. Obviously injuries are a problem. But one of the things I did really like about LAM's 2025 is he played hurt. He played through a lot of that stuff. I like the dudes that play through stuff and they aren't meaningfully worse. Like LAM was still able to put up good enough numbers that were like, I mean, is he declining? Like no, he was hurt the whole year and still producing like 80% of what he is. I think CDLAM is elite. Like I think he's still at the very, very top of all of it. I think he's better than George Pickens. I think he was better than George Pickens as a prospect. He's only ever backed that up. He's always been very good in terms of yards per target. He's always been very good in terms of targets per out run and both sides of the yards per out run profile. It's gotten better and better. The last couple years been a little bit worse and we finally see a peak pick in seasons and Pickens had intriguing stuff in his prospect profile and in his early career in Pittsburgh. He was one of my biggest stands last year. I was very in on him. It was awesome to see what he did last year. But now he's going to the two three turn and I do think you have to think like, for example, in the three games LAMs missed Pickens PPR scoring per game rose to 26. 0.3 from a still solid but very more normal 15.2 in the other 14 games. You don't want to necessarily overweight the specifics of any splits like he still had production. He was new in the offense and had to progress his way a little bit in the first six or seven weeks and then clearly established and was very good the rest of the way. I do think Pickens 2025 is like, this guy's incredibly good. It's also like a reminder that like how splash games can elevate a profile which he tended to have when LAM was out more. He finished Wider C5 and points per game among all Wider Cvers who played at least 10 games. But he was also still a back end top 10 Wider Cever even if we just look at the games when LAM did play. So it's not like he was bad when LAM was on the field. He was just even better in that three game sample when LAM was out and that ability to raise your game and dominate avoid created by a star being out is very, very positive. So I'm pretty into Pickens still. I do think the price rising is pretty meaningful. And then again as it relates to LAM I do think like I've seen people talk about Pickens is being better than LAM and I think that's a little bit based on last year and my thing is like this longer view. I think Lam's body of work is better and you all the way back to the prospect profile. You go to a lot of the other stuff. Although like Pickens is a demon like he's got he's super good at the ball in his hand too just like LAM has always been he's always been very efficient because he's a high eight out player. But yeah I mean broadly I also think it's kind of not the right way to look at Wider Cever's when they play alongside each other. I mean there is that competition and there is like Pickens production with LAM off the field going nuclear is a positive but if Pickens was off the field I would expect LAM's targets per hour and jump right back up around 30%. So it works both directions and again I think as I was saying LAM being banged up the last couple of years is sort of hiding how good he was that game he left due to a concussion he played 46% of the snaps it was his highest yards game of the year I mentioned 120 point yards was well on his way to a 200 yard day like I said he was down from his peak with a 2.37 yards per out run but that still eclipsed Pickens career high 2.35 in his breakout year last year. I mean you're talking about you know some important contextual stuff when you really focus on this stuff the touchdowns as you noted is a key part of it and then as far as the flow no way thing I just wanted to say impressive per out profile I really liked your notes about when he was getting targets with those guys on and off I love your guys is on off data that you have I had in my thing that his targets per out running was good at 19.4% again pfs data for not being a primary read on a lot of concepts and as you talked about he's going to be the primary read more when those guys are off the field and that's when he did have a lot more so that's that's really nice to hear strong yards per target efficiency I will note on him is 27 October a bit older for a year or three guys still probably in his prime the college career was legitimately intriguing across some smaller schools people who listen to this religiously will remember I mentioned Florida pretty favorably it is a rookie year as this guy that could maybe compete in that wide receiver to rule because I liked the pro profile coming out but I've always been a big fan of this guy reminds me a little bit of Jalen cocker and Caroline as like a like a UDFA that needed to work their way in but always efficient gaining more work getting there and then you know as you guys were talking about kind of as a handcuffed play if either those guys missed time I mean I think it opens up Jack was saying you could be a legit player I think he could be a legit player but I kind of feel like in in redraft is more of like a waiver wire playing season should that opportunity arise otherwise he's kind of just like a handcuffed on your bench for sure I'm curious if floor know I would get drafted much and and you know traditional like home home read athletes I think he is clearly like if if if if pickens or lamb went down like you know spend a lot of fab on on flonoi I'm a little skeptical that he's just going to completely overtake Cavante turpin they've they've always had a had a role for turpin in this offense and he's he's been solid he has a 1.7 or yards per out run in his career so has always been effective when utilized that's that's turpin once again there so let's go to Jake Ferguson and the tight end room here on Ferguson where 81.4 targets scratches at 91 we both have quite low yards per targets here at 6.3 on furg and that's where I wanted to start with him is he just has not been efficient at all and really kind of relied on touchdowns to get there last year but he's out of 5.9 and 5.7 yards per target the last two seasons his eight out is 4.4 over the last two years so kind of just an underneath like release valve essentially for for Dak press got in this offense and so again kind of carried on touchdowns last year I'm a little bit skeptical of his profile with flonoi merging more as you know why receiver read that potentially earn more targets and then again we just haven't seen much explosiveness from Ferguson at all so if those if those end zone targets dry up I think it could be a pretty empty season here for furg so Jack any any interest on on Jake Ferguson we also have Luke Schumaker and Breven span Ford in this tight end room who are you know mostly mostly blockers Schumaker more of kind of like the the receiving handcuff if Ferguson were to miss any time yeah Ferguson does just keep getting volume but the lack of efficiency is a little scary especially now that they have two away wide receivers and flonoi potentially ascending 5.9 and 5.7 yards per target the last two years he was still at a 17% target share last year sorry 16% target share last year the targets per hour run jump from 19% to 22% with CD off the field but he was still at in the 1617% target share range even with CD on you mentioned the red zone and the touchdown scoring it's kind of difficult to know what to make of that he had three targets inside the 10 year line in 2024 that jumped at 13 last year that was I think fourth in the entire NFL so so much of his profile comes down to is he getting those targets inside the 10 I don't know why they would prioritize him so much inside the 10 year line when they have lamb and pickings so I think it kind of makes sense for that number to go back down which would be a little scary for his profile given a potential flonoi ascension and the lack of efficiency and kind of the volume reliance that he has but I mean he does just keep getting solid target numbers so I think he's fine yeah I went from zero touchdowns and in 2024 to eight touchdowns and 2025 so grachakirish your your read on on for this season yeah I mean it was a lot of TDs early in the year and and there were you know some for victory laps out there I'm not a bit of a big Ferguson fan he's basically a routes dependent floor play to me at tight end the touchdowns that started early in the year really just faded at that point his target spread run was down from 2024 his yards per hour run was a career low kind of started with that bang but really took a backseat as pickings came on and as I mentioned pickings was kind of finding his footing early pickings kind of really found his footing in the offense when lamb got hurt at the first time and it was like okay and from that point forward is like Ferguson is he's just a guy and he's kind of always been just a guy my thing on on the tight ends here and goes back to Dalton Shultz is that DAC really likes throwing to the tight ends when they go up tempo in the two minute and that stuff these guys will catch like four balls in a row on a drive and like in ppr it's great you know you'll get a bunch of work when they're even in in just a two minute drill the first half late in the game when they get into these shootouts up tempo stuff you got the receivers pressing down field and if he can't hit them he doesn't throw down to the running backs as much he gets down to his tight end it's just the way the DAC's always done it and it's bent. It was the profile for Schultz and Ferguson stepped like running the same profile routes dependent floor play. But there are routes. He ran 498 routes. It was the eighth most of the position. I would guess he keeps the routes. But that's like what his profile is. And he's sort of better. Keep them because there's nothing really else there. Well, he was on Ferguson, um, potentially excusing some inefficiency. He did suffer a MCL spring and a bone bruise in week one. I think when it happened, it was expected to cost him more than one game, but it did end up only costing one game. So maybe he was playing a little bit hurt too. He missed week two. Um, so just giving him that is a potentially an excuse, but generally, I'm, I'm mostly with you. His, his metrics were quite strong with pickins and lamb on the field. Though last season, I, I will say with, with both of those on the field, he was the clear third target at a 16% target share. And like, no, and else on the Cowboys was above a 10% share. So that's kind of where the vulnerability comes in for me. If, if Floor Noi is able to kind of flip him as, as that third target in the packing order, but, but as, as Gretchen alluded to, like, Dak is always, as always, like throwing the tight ends that the volume should be there. I don't think there's, you know, much threat to his role in terms of like routes. Like I don't think Luke, Luke Schummick here is, is coming for that. And it is Ferguson's, you know, fifth, fifth NFL season, he's 27 years old. So in, in his prime, in that regard. So I don't think she'd be written off right away. Um, you know, there are some green flags there. Even as a Ferguson hater, I don't think Floor Noi flipping him is something I'm concerned about just because of the way the offense functions, where he runs his routes and what I was saying about kind of the underneath throws. When you have pickings running vertical routes and lamb runs his fair share as well, Ferguson's just operating in that short intermediate range where, I mean, I, I just, I get Floor Noi is not going to run those routes. Even if he's out there in a three receiver set, I mean, he'll, he'll, he'll maybe run some. He's caught some underneath passes. But like, that's where Ferguson's always going to be. And that's why he's like, he does do well when those guys are on the field because they're running off coverage. He's not good, but he's getting wide open because of that. I mean, he ran the eighth most routes and, I mean, it's not, it's a Floor play at tight end that you can make. I just, I don't, I think it lacks upside. Yep. All right. Let's go to Philadelphia where the Eagles are, are always in the headlines and, and, you know, an interesting fantasy team for us to target offensive coordinator has been like a turn style for, for Philly, the last few seasons. And yet again, they have a new OC and play color this year that's going to be Sean Manion. He comes over from Green Bay after being, you know, kind of a backup NFL quarterback for, for close to a decade. In terms of team level inputs on Philly, we're at 61.5 plays. Gretches at 61.8. We're at a six six, excuse me, a 56.7% pass rate. Gretches at 55% there. So both projecting, you know, pretty, pretty modest play volume or 61.5 plays is 17th in the league. So kind of middle of the pack. The last three years, last year, the Eagles were 20th in, in plays per game, fifth in 2024 and then fourth in 2023 that, that shows evaluating the real play's per game, which, which strips out, uh, kneel downs and, and, um, kneel downs and, and, uh, I'm not sure what else, but, uh, probably spikes, I think. Yeah. So, um, the real play's per game there. And then, and then past rate, we have at 56.7%, which is, which is 30th in the league. They've been 26, 30 second in 22nd in the last three seasons has Philly. So, you know, this is a team we talked about, or this is similar to me with like the bills we had, you know, way up higher in, in plays per game, despite an elevated runway. We're more middle of the pack here for the Eagles, but we did see them dominate in 2024 and 2023 at, at fifth and, and fourth in real plays per game. So I think that is, is on the table this season, but Jack, how do you see the Eagles offense operating under Sean Manion in his first season here? Yeah. The play's per game is a little interesting because like you said, they were so high in 2023 and 2024, despite running so much. And with Manion coming in and potentially installing a more competent offense, maybe we, I guess you could tell yourself they're going to get back to that. I think that I'm not expecting that because of Manion coming over from Green Bay and emphasis this off season has been playing a lot under center, getting a lot of motion going, really getting right to the run game. I think that we've seen Green Bay be pretty slow over the years under the floor. I think that getting a similar system means that we're probably not likely to see like monster play volume games from this Eagles offense. There's also unsurprisingly been a big emphasis on getting the ground game back going and I obviously took a monster step back last year from where they were in 2024. They're installing wide zone offense. Their pass rate over expectation actually, John Flasier too, they were at negative 9% in 2024. That was up to 18th in the league at negative 3.1% last year. So I think we get back to a run heavy offense here. Gretches even lower than us on the run rate or the pass rate, which we've kind of talked about throughout the series, being a trend given Gretch projecting perfect health and us, not projecting perfect health and maybe if Saquon goes down the pass rate changes. But I think that we're going to see kind of a grinding offense both in terms of pace and in terms of how often they're going to drop back. One note that I thought Jack made on a previous episode that I think is prudent here to the Eagles is that for our player projections, we have a base case and a ceiling case for for every player. But we don't we can't necessarily do that on the team level where I think like the Eagles do have a pretty high ceiling that maybe can't be captured the best in terms of like a base level team projection. Like I do think there is upside here for their plays for game to elevate back up to the top five like we saw in 2024 and in 2023 if that ground game can be as efficient as we saw in the first year of Saquon. And then we know the or we expect the Eagles to have a strong defense once again. So Gretch, I'm curious kind of how you view the Eagles as a team again with you know a new play collar at the helm scheme wise, how do you think Sean Manion is going to change things up here from Kevin Petula last season. Yeah, I agree with that about the upside. I think so I guess I'll start by last year like you might stealing signals weekly right upside was mostly bashing the offense even after the four and I'll start when a lot of people kind of were but there was obviously then a lot of people pushing back and there was like there was media asking them and Ciarani was basically like what do you want I mean what do you expect we're for now like we're great and everything. And I was I mean they were so extreme run heavy some weeks and then they went really extreme pass heavy because they were getting you know kind of some some push back on that and everything go as well and they're bouncing back and forth in weird ways they were very predictable like run run pass and those things. And I think they they always take pride in still winning games in certain ways like they talked about that in 2024 they were a run based team that were going to win after their first loss or maybe it was their second I wrote what happens when but we're for no starts to fall off what if they fall the four and four at what point do the questions become valid because I mean even when they were winning games you know I was questioning a lot of that stuff in in the article and then I was getting you know push back and I'm saying all that to say not that I was right but they they still finished 11 and six and made the playoffs like I don't think I was but eventually their respected veteran lineman Lane Johnson who the year they went to the Super Bowl I loved the quote that he had on media row where he was talking about how they self scout and were aware of what defenses are going to try to do against them and constantly trying to find new things to implement before they needed to solve a problem but it was like proactively iterating the same way we've talked about with guys like Sean McVag and some of these other teams around the league I love teams that do that stuff Lane Johnson had an awesome quote about that from the media media row from the Super Bowl season after one of their losses even when they had a winning record he called them quote predictable which like felt like vindication for me and it's it was also coming from inside the building right Jeff Statlin their offensive line coach ended up leaving which was arguing was reportedly because of disagreement with Nick Cereoni so there's been like some things that are changing there but I also I'm saying that to say that their season last year went really bad frankly even though they went 11 and 6 I think and I think that speaks to how high the floor is this is the gold standard for team building how he rose men is the gold standard they have so much talent they are so good at acquiring talent when we go talk about their young pass catchers I'm going to gosh about the guys that they got I think the kind of lemon is the best receiver in this class like I just I think they're so good at evaluating talent I think they're I think Nick Cereonis maybe a donkey but whatever we won't go there as far as what Sean Manion's going to bring you supposed to bring this under center shanahan style they're the seventh easiest schedule I had in my notes like good team should run plays obviously a big run lean part of the reason I'm so low is that expected pass rate based on the win total that I keep referencing for them it's it's really pretty low because their biggest one total is 10.5 with a slight you know lean to the under from from betters but it's a 0.589 expected pass rate when I have them a 0.55 I got them just below a negative 4% PROE that's sort of what I expect that they will be and especially if they start to add plays I think it's because they're running more basically I don't think it necessarily adds to the dropbacks the way that I view it overall I would say is I view it like even a run heavier version of Seattle's offense last year that went and won the Super Bowl that blueprint that run and play actions solidly negative PROE and then jaylen hurt sort of as the same darn throwing on non obvious past downs when possible off play action obviously they'll use his mobility and he'll do some different things in same darnal does but I think Seattle did a really good job of putting darnal in good passing situations when he did dropback I think that'll be the goal with jaylen hurts as well so that's sort of the way I view it they do they do still return off five starters in the line one of the things they do incredibly well in the offensive line is they continue to draft and acquire a new line in every year it's like an organizational philosophy even when they're good coming off the the Super Bowl. They use three day three picks to add depth in 2020. They used a third and a sixth round pick on it again this year, and they also added like a free agent last year and maybe another one this year They're not ever getting complacent with this part of their roster, but they did get late Lane Johnson and Lan and Dickerson back They were both contemplating retirement. They do leave Statlin as the O-line coach, which maybe is an underrated, you know, element I haven't had a chance to read Thorne's notes on them yet, but I saw that Thorne just posted But it seems like the O-line is still a very very strong team Yeah, and you know with the Statlin departure I was very curious where Thorne would come in on the Eagles and he's at number two on Philly right now and he was taking questions for He's about to do a show with with Silva and Levitan, you know talking through his his full rankings But I had a question for him, you know, just on like how much losing Statlin the factored into his decision He responded on on Twitter. It's many said since their best three players are well established top-tier guys in the expected system being run first play action centered Quieted a lot of concern for me in this specific situation, although not totally slash long-term So I think still for the 2026 season we can feel confident in this Eagles line with the continuity with Lane Johnson and Jordan Mylata as you know two elite tackles book ending this line and then yeah, hopefully you get a healthier season just kind of from this group But I certainly think that's gonna be a question that that's asked a lot But but Thorne has kind of quelled some some concerns I had and that specific regard All right, let's go to Jalen Hertz You know once again returns as a starter here for Philly in the last five seasons He's been the QB seven QB six QB two QB one and QB six in points per game and he's currently getting drafted as the QB seven this season so it is potentially some decent upside Four Jalen Hertz where he's where he's going on underdog here in terms of inputs We're at 491 pass attempts. Gretches at 499 in terms of rush attempts We're at 118 graches at 127 and then rushing touchdowns were at nine graches at 9.2 and that's kind of one the point I wanted to hit on with Jalen Hertz is that last year the rushing really did dip a lot He only had 105 rush attempts for 421 rushing yards in the previous four seasons with the Eagles He had averaged 153 rush attempts and 695 rushing yards so quite quite a big big dip there It's something we talked about with with Lamar Jackson earlier in the Baltimore Series, you know a lot of that came from the designed rush attempts per game He did have a little bit fewer QB sneaks then then the previous seasons but not like a massive drop off there But in terms of designed rush attempts you only had 25 and in 2025 that was 51 and 2024 58 and 2023 and 68 in 2022 so pretty massive drop off there So I think that's the big question to me is as will Sean Manion kind of return to the design rushing game here for Jalen Hertz, but Jackie's he's been one of fantasies, you know most valuable quarterbacks over last handful of years How are you expecting this year to go for mr. Hertz? Yeah, the rushing is the big question because like you said the design stuff is way down 12 12.1% 2024 13.9% 2023 that dropped to 7.1% last year Gemmy Kemski one of the better Eagles Be a reporter said that Hertz doesn't like getting a lot of design runs So I think that that probably played into it a little bit. I think it's also Clear that the Eagles offense is more dangerous when Hertz is running the ball It probably sets up the rest of the ground game with sake one a little bit better So I think that that's a big question is how much they get back to that he also did a career low Scrabble rate last year down to 7% There's been times just kind of watching him where he doesn't look all that fast. I don't know I know a lot of the time he's been like fighting through injuries. I know that I think it was 2024 when he was fighting through an injury over the back half of the season which likely impacted his Rushing game, but I think that that's a big question Another question he had a career low 7.1 yards per attempt last year And now he loses a J brand who average 9.7 yards per target throughout his Eagles 10 year He does get a big upgrade in my opinion and offensive coordinator going from Kevin Petulo to Sean Manion and and what you guys were talking about with more play action and kind of throwing on throwing when it's unexpected and and potentially that increasing as if it's Efficiency from a passing standpoint. I think that makes sense The rushing from a sneaks perspective I think is still going to be there you mentioned it was down last year that potentially could be attributed partially to Just an overall Downpick in how good the offense was potentially generating less of those opportunities near the goal line and less of those sneak opportunities for hurts I think the rushing touchdowns are still going to be there. I think that the question which I don't have a great answer to is how much the designed stuff Rebounds um, I think that they'd be smart to bump it back up But it sounds like it's something that hurts himself isn't a huge fan of Gratitude so it's a tricky projection in that regard because we haven't seen Sean Manion Nestle with well, I guess I guess he did have some starts with Millique Willis and and utilized um, you know the design rush game But I think that's more so like LaFour than than Sean Manion in that regard. Do you have any any take on on hurts as designed rushing coming back or is that not too much of a concern for you? No, it's definitely a concern um, I wasn't sure how to parse the sneak element of it because I know they struggled with the sneaks last year which they've talked about and I think they do want to get back to that So I thought part of why it was down was just they they sneaked less but I was just kind of listening to you guys talk through it I mean as far as like the actual just rush attempts per game. I mean I do the design and the scramble Split out like you guys do but also kind of just look at the You know zoomed out stuff sometimes He was at at least 8.8 rush attempts per game each of the previous four seasons as a starter and was way down at 6.6 this past year I'm projecting at 7.5 basically to just split that difference Because I don't really know what I want to do But when you look at like the actual fantasy output on the ground you guys are mentioning how important it is The last four years as a starter um because 2020 he started a little bit at the end But you know obviously wasn't a full-time guy in that rookie season the other four years of his career 600 plus rushing yards every year double digit rush TDs every year He had 10 in that first season but then 13 plus the next three years 2022 2023 2024 and then 2025 he's done to eight rushing TVs and he's done to 421 rushing yards basically 200 yards below his you know his previous career low It's a significant significant drop off. It's a big reason when we did the AFC East I mentioned Josh Allen ended up leading the league and rush yards and there was no quarterback who had or in quarterback Russia. There's no quarterback who had 600 yards Jaylen Hertz would give you 600 yards every every year like clockwork But for whatever reason last year well the design runs as you guys are talking about that's the reason um last year he's way below it and it is a significant change to his profile now When I go and project him this year he comes out really really hot and my note was um And part because I pushed him back to 7.5 russian times per game And I think if you're thinking through that part of it you're like yeah I mean he has always been a meaningfully more of a runner than he was last year But the other part of it my note was the rushing how the rushing TD shake out is key And if you look at it from the team level They only had 17 last year they had 29 the year prior when they won the Super Bowl But even working backward on Hertz first few years as the QB pre-barclay 22 32 25 we talked about with the bills they had back-to-back 30 rush TD seasons I mean this is a team that you would think would be right up there and rush to these every year and they are But that's I mean multiple years over 25 is great one year over 30 the previous low was 22 Uh in a jaylen Hertz offense last year 17 team rushing TD It's not just that his rushing TDs are down to eight barkles were down to seven as well You wouldn't really expect that coming off of his 2024 Um, and so then the question is like what are you projecting for the team level 17 feels light I think they're gonna they're gonna come back up in rushing TDs on the team level But then how that works out it was my big note like I ended up projecting more for him Than sake one But I I felt like I wanted to push more back to sake one as well And so there's this Question and a projection of and I only got them to 20.6 like shy of 21 rushing TDs Um when prior to last year it was 22 plus in all these jaylen Hertz iterations of the offense So that side of it is tricky the I got them to about 21 rush TDs Because I only have about 24 past TDs and I have them above my you know market-based projected touchdown number Slightly above and so anyway, uh, I'm not like sure where those touchdowns would come from But if this offense hits that ceiling that we were talking about that it could you would expect it to be right there Rushing touchdowns and a higher number there and for jaylen Hertz to potentially get back to double digits and potentially For barkley as well and that's really the the thing for me that was the key was the the rush touchdowns in addition But also on the passing I do want to know how to really bad year last year right this wasn't a very functional offense But uh when his scrambles and sacks were both down last year his completion percent was down his yards per attempt was a career low um And then yeah, I just in the design runs note. I just had that the push push success leg than that was my thought on that But um he is a guy who isn't gonna throw to the running backs of time He's gonna push it vertically more often and I think as part of them getting under center and doing The stuff that all the teams getting under center are trying to do which is marry the run in the past and do more play action off of that As he goes into that version of this offense It'll be interesting to see if his pass efficiency comes back up a little bit I have it rebounding a little the arts per attempt bouncing back a little um, but yeah, like I said he's an interesting evaluation because this is a guy who has always had some real Floor with the quarterback projection and now he's going QB7 on underdog and he came out as my QB4. I'm Coming out of that thinking I mean, maybe in my two hot on the past efficiency, this is one where there's a little bit of a gap. Maybe in my two hot on the rushing TVs. I'm very similar to you guys on the rushing TVs ultimately. I have about a hundred more rush yards, but I have them at just 5.19. As I mentioned, 600 plus every other year before last season, they got a lot to prove this year. They got that easier schedule. I think Jaylen Hertz might actually win at being a pretty solid target at QB7. Yeah, and we're at QB5 on him, so, you know, not too far behind you there. Looking into the rushing last night, I was like, "Man, we are pretty low on the rush yardage again just last year." You know, it was about 4 and 21 yards. Easily a career low, and we're at 4.24 projection wise right now. So I think we might be low there. I don't see it be willing to come up a little further on that, but to me, it comes down to kind of the design rush attempts come back. And then in terms of a team level touchdown projection split, we have 22.3 rushing touchdowns projected between Hertz and then the three running back. So we have Hertz projected to throw 23.3 touchdowns. So only a one touchdown gap there, so a little bit tighter than it sounds like you have Gretchen. Interesting. That's good feedback. I'm glad to hear that. All right. Let's go to the running back room, Sequan Barkley headlines. This room once again, this upcoming season, tank Bigs B is in line to be the running back to. And then we'll shiply remains the RB3 and kind of past catching return specialist here for the Eagles. Just, you know, in terms of Sequan, Barkley inputs were at 260 rush attempts. Gretchen's at 263. We're at 47.5 targets. Gretchen's at 47 on tank Bigs B were at 101 rush attempts and seven targets. Gretchen's at 95 rush attempts and six targets. So almost almost in lockstep in this backfield, even trickling down to will shiply there. But on Sequan, you know, if you include the playoffs, he's had over 825 touches the last two seasons, which I think is probably the biggest knock here for Barkley entering the upcoming season. And then when I was looking at his, you know, like touchdown scoring last year. Last year inside the five, he had nine carries and negative three yards on those carries. He only scored one touchdown inside the five last season and looking back to 2024. He only had four touchdowns inside the five on 13 carries. So again, most of those, most of those touchdowns came from far out in 2024. So I'm, you know, we're quite a bit ahead in terms of rushing TV on Sequan. We're at 9.5 and Gretchen's at 7.9 there. So I'm semi concerned on that as well again, just kind of given her its his success on the Tush push around the goal line that the Sequan touchdowns really came from far out. And he has not been successful close into the goal line. Again, maybe that, you know, goes back to the lane Johnson, like, hey, we're too predictable on on what we're calling and they kept getting stuff to the goal line. And maybe that will flip this year with some better scheme. But Jack Sequan has been, you know, the leagues, I would say probably biggest workhorse over the last two seasons. How are you viewing this 2026 outlook for him? Yeah, the touchdowns is an interesting place to start because we are significantly higher than Gretchen on his rushing touchdowns. And the way we do our rushing touchdowns is a little bit unintuitive. We have like a multiplier on our design carry share basically. And we're just at Algo on both Sequan and Hertz. And we're going to deliver for us to pull if we want to get Hertz up from a rushing touchdown perspective and Sequan down would be changing the number of Eagles touchdowns that we project to be sneaks for it 12.4% of Eagles touchdowns a sneaks right now. Our Algo has 7.4% but our Algos just like completely unequipped to handle a team like the Eagles that just push pushes when they get within when you are. I think that that's one that maybe we could look at. We were higher on looking at our 2025 final projections. I think we were around 16%. So we're kind of middleing our Alago where we were at the end of 2025. So potentially we could come up on the Eagles sneak touchdowns. But with Sequan specifically, I definitely think that the age and the workload is a concern is 29 years old. As a significant workload history as you mentioned, it should be a better team environment. I think with Sean Manning coming over the efficiency was way down last year 5.8 yards per target yards per carry, which was obviously ridiculous in 2024 to 4.1 last year. The yards after contact per attempt was down a little bit from 2.0 to 1.6 according to profile far reference. But the yards before contact was the bigger culprit 3.8 yards before contact per attempt two years ago to 2.5 last year. The missed echoes forced per attempt per PFF was in line. So we were still evading tackles at the same rate via PFF. But the actual yards before contact was a big problem there. I think if the offense gets back to closer to where it was in 2024 with Manning coming over, I think that that'll be good for Sequan. But you certainly can't dismiss a 29 year old running back with his workload history. So it does make me a little bit nervous from that perspective especially because we're only three carries behind Gretchen Sequan usually with these top end guys giving the injury risk we come in a little bit lower. That was good. Sorry. I know I'm about done but I was just thinking between that and the touchdown stuff maybe we could look back into Sequan. I do generally think though it makes sense to bet on a resurgence with the offense likely getting better. I think that if we get the Sequan we're used to seeing because I don't think last year was really on him all that much. So I think that if we get the same caliber Sequan we're used to seeing in a better offense I do like him at his ADP but the age concerns and potentially us being low on the team touchdowns that our sneaks could maybe mean our rank is a little high at the moment. It feels like a completely agree it feels like a big if right like it feels like a little bit of a concern it feels like another one of these small hit big misprofiles to me. I completely agree that thing you said and then I was just started to cut you off there but I was going to chime in those exactly what stood out to me too was that I actually am probably light on you guys even though I have slightly more in our Russia attempts because when I went through it I had all the same concerns that Jack just laid out. One of the main things was his breakaway rate was way lower in 2025 than 2024. And so like I wrote a piece last year about how yards after contact is really correlated to break away rate. I think people think about yards after contact like the film off a profile that I was just talking about where it's just powering through but like usually that's a couple of yards after contact and then one of the things that actually happens with yards after contact and especially when you start looking at a per attempt like a lot of the actual yards after contact come on the breakaway place like it's tough to get a untouched long touchdown run. Trayvon Henderson comes to mind where he was had really bad yards after contact numbers until his first long touchdown run last year and he basically just got a hand of the thigh as he was running through the through the whole and he got like 60 yards after contact and didn't get touched again and it was like this is just a speed start sprinting he's not powering through anything this is not what yards after contact is in our mind but that's what happens with a lot of it. Anyway his yards after contact fell but I think a lot for Barclay was just comes down to his percent of rates his rate of runs that were 15 plus yards 7.3% in 2024 which is elite 4.6% in 2025 he's had other years in his career go back to his rookie was even higher than 7.3% of 7.7% 6.7% in 2022. And it's bounced around because it's a breakaway run rate there's other there's been years even lower than 2025 in his career as well and so you have this you know question of how many explosive runs can I predict for sake one Barclay I don't know he's a really old dude with a I mean not really old but he's a he's an older dude with all the really is the with a lot of wear and tear on his tires last two years as you guys mentioned there's been a lot a lot of a lot of work for him. And then the part of that that is interesting is that tank big speed was a was the clear number to after you came over last year and ran very well Jack mentioned that sake ones yards per carry fell from the high five down to 4.1. I hate seeing that bigs being the same offense had 5.7 with strong evasion strong yards after contact and breakaway rate I think tank bigs be a high end handcuff. Will shiply has become the kind of a core special teams are and bigs b has not doesn't really play on special teams shiply I think is a good player a had a really good prospect profile I think he might be a bit of the kind of game well like offensive under use thing because of the the also the receiving profile which hurts doesn't like to throw the back so whole lot because he's a more mobile and ball in hand you know playmaking type quarterback where he's going to take sacks is going to scramble those things. So anyway I shiply skills I doesn't really fit in that way and then because of the special teams I don't think he's getting as many carries bigs be I think is the clear number to I'm very excited about him even though he doesn't have much of a receiving profile at all. On bark Lee I'm thinking about him similar basically bark Lee in year one had a decent receiving profile really the the area of stuff I talk about he had a real a dot it completely vanished in 2025 we lost what little we had in the profile in terms of some explosive plays that came out of the receiving game but in terms of just yardage he I think is under 300 receiving yards both the last two years in this offense his targets per out way down then the rest of his career he's a great receiving back they don't throw to the backs a lot of this offense. So that's another part of it that I'm a little bit concerned about I think it's an expensive bet to for rebound on rush efficiency and especially when you think about the potential for jail and hurts to rebound like I wind up with her to slightly more rushing tds you guys do have bark Lee for slightly more but by half a touchdown like bark Lee's not going to when you want the rush efficiency bet like the dare can read that you want 18 touchdowns in the in the range of outcomes. Barkley, you guys have for 9.5 rushing TDs, 1.2 receiving. I have him for a little bit less than that even. Maybe I'm low, but I don't love seeing that we're, neither of us are projecting him for 15 touchdowns or anything like that on a pretty big workload as well. So this is a tough one. And just to wrap up the receiving thing too, in a more shenanigans style offense, the under center stuff, the running backs don't always get a lot of targets unless the team makes it a priority that they do with Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco now. And Mike McDaniel has done with his iterations of these offense, but like Sean McFase offenses, typically don't throw the backs a ton. Clint Cubiacs and Seattle didn't throw the backs a ton. Because again, a lot of the passing is off play action. It's off the running back, faking a run. He's not necessarily like in a shotgun and like flaring out and some of those things. And less like I said, Mike McDaniel's out here scheming stuff up for Devon H.Anne and making it a priority or Kyle Shanahan scheming stuff up for Christian McCaffrey or what have you. I don't believe that what we saw, especially from year one to year two with Barclay that the Eagles really want to or need to because I do really like their new receiving weapons actually. I think they're deeper in the receiving game than they were even with AJ Brown last year. Use Barclay in that way with intent. And I don't think the targets per out run the last couple of years show a lot of intent in that side of things. So I do think you're betting on an older back where it's a pretty run heavy profile. And I don't even know that we have huge touchdown potential so that I always talk about the high value touches the stuff in the goal line plus the receiving. To me, Barclay is the guy that I was called trap backs. Their trivial rush attempt percentage or buddy Pat Karein came up with a few years back. It means that a lot of his work is carries that are not necessarily goal line carries that are not necessarily receptions that add more fantasy scoring. Obviously it's tough to fade sake one Barclay anytime. But his price is pretty high for a profile even in an offense that we talked about. I see a lot of ceiling and I like Jack's last note there that he could clearly hit that ceiling. It just feels thin. It feels thin to me at his cost. And then as a result, if I'm not playing a lot of Barclay, I do just want to emphasize again, I love playing tank big speed. His ADP is underrated. Yeah, I'll add on big speed. He's someone I think we all like at ETR internally, but it's hard for us to get to his ADP because so much of the Eagles design carries go to sake one and heard. So it's just, even if we have Shipply for basically nothing, it's just difficult for us to actually get to Big Speed. We have him with a big ceiling. What we don't have him for is a lot of receiving work. I think that even if sake one goes down, he's not likely to get that. And so that kind of hurts him from a great base projection standpoint as well. I think if sake one goes down, it's going to be shipply handling the pass downs. But I do think especially in redraft leagues. Actually, I shouldn't even say that. I kind of think across formats, he's a fine pick despite our rank because I think that he would dominate carries of sake one went down in one of the better environments for a run only running back to actually be fantasy viable. I think that a lot of the times, if a guy goes down and a guy is only playing on two downs, it's not the most intriguing fantasy profile. I think given how much the Eagles run the ball, I think given how efficient we expect this run, giving it a B, this would be one of the few spots where a two down back would be very viable. Bigs be outcarried. Shipply 16 to 1 in week 18 last year. He's reportedly had an awesome offseason. I think I've seen a couple of Eagles writers say that he's had the best offseason of any of their players on the entire team. So I think Bigs be clear I be too. It's going to continue to be hard for us to actually get to his ADP because it's all contingent upside because I think that sake one's going to dominate carries. I think Hertz is still going to get design carries. So there's just not enough carries in our base projection for us to get to tank. And then when you throw in the fact that he's probably not going to contribute anything really, even if sake one goes down from a passing standpoint, it's hard to get there. But I do like the actual that just kind of zooming out. Totally agree. And to your point about this is being one of the main offenses where you can actually get a two down contingent profile with real upside. Another thing I wanted to say about Barclay that you've talked about Tank reminded me is that offseason stuff and how much more efficient he was last year. Do I really think Tank Bigs is going to cut into Barclay? No. It's part of why I think he's a small hit big miss. You guys talking about how much work he's had over the last two years. He's older. This is a team with designs on long postseason runs. I don't think they're trying to get Barclay another 2,000 rushing yard season. I think they're trying to keep him healthy to win a Super Bowl. I think it's possible that Tank Bigs actually does cut into that significant running back rush share that Barclays had. That was something else when I was working through the projections. I was like, why wouldn't you give him a little bit of a breather when you have a backup that's been this good and this interchangeable? That would be devastating for Barclays fantasy value. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see because last year, Tank Bigs B did not have more than four carries before the fourth quarter in any game that that's taken on Barclay played in. You know, the two games were big blowouts in week eight and week 15 that he was able to get 24th quarter carries combined in those two games. Then week 18 obviously he had he had the RB1 workload there. But you know, and but again, we are projecting him to eat in quite a bit more. You know, we have 101 rest of times for Tank this season just on as a base case. All right, let's go to the wider receiver room. Obviously AJ Brown massive departure here for the Eagles. They do draft McIelement in the first round. They also draft Eli Stowers in the second round. But to want to Smith profiles to be the clear wider receiver one in terms of routes and targets here for Phil Hadelefie's had massive on and off splits with with AJ Brown off the field. The last couple seasons Devont A Smith has a 39% target per out run and in three games without AJ Brown. The last season he's had nine targets for a 45% share and then 10 targets for a 33% and 26% share. So we love the Vont A Smith. This upcoming season, but you know, he's you're paying up for him in drafts. He's going to eight wider receiver 12 ADP of 26. On underdog right now. So in terms of our inputs, we are at 114 targets on Devont A Smith. Gretches at 112 on McIelement were at 88 targets. Gretches is at 95 then on the on the on TV and Wix who came over from the Packers. He is at 50 TAR, or excuse me, at ETR we're at 50 targets. Gretches at 47. So a little bit a little bit higher on on Wix than Gretches. But in terms of like the split between Smith and lemon were eight targets behind on Smith and seven targets behind on lemon, which I was very eager to see because McIelement, it has been the player and at least on underdog we've been I think like furthest behind ADP on that has I think legitimate upside and he's a guy that that I like want to get higher on, but I struggled to see the path for us a little bit unless the place where game really jumps up and we we just get an overall, you know, higher play volume from this team because I don't think the pass rate for the Eagles has much of of a ceiling as currently, you know, constructed in this offense. So Jack Devonte Smith, you know, amazing supposed to that AJ Brown over the career, but they do draft, you know, a first round wide receiver and inbring and Wix and and Hollywood Brown. So what's your Alec for for Devonte and the rest of the Eagles wide receiver room? Yeah, they've been talking a lot of season like he's going to be the clear wide receiver one. I think that that should be the expectation. Devonte has a 39% targets per round without AJ Brown on the field over the last two seasons. The target area actually is only 23%, but I think a lot of that is because he hasn't been on the field either. I think a lot of those snaps are probably like low out snaps for neither AJ Brown or Devonte are on the field. And like you said, the target shares in specific games without AJ Brown massive 26% 33%, 45%. He's reportedly put on weight, expecting wide receiver one workload. We do come in a little bit low on Devonte versus Mark Gowitch, I think, is more of a team environment type of thing. But I do think that he's the clear wide receiver one. I think lemon is kind of a more interesting conversation though because like you said, we've been so low versus market all off season, which I don't think any of us feel good about because I think we all like lemon. I'm curious to hear where Gretchen comes in given that earlier he said, "Lemon was his favorite wide receiver in the entire graph class." But right now we're at an 18.5% target share projection. That is 1.5% ahead of Casey Concepcion, who is drafted in a similar range 0.5% less than Carnal Tate, who is obviously drafted significantly higher. Lemon played most of his college snaps on the Sloppet actually at a higher yards per out run on the outside. So I'm not too worried about him getting confined in a slot only role. Maybe that's something we see in like week one with better indeference given the acquired Don Tavian Wix. But I think that it's probably eventually and pretty quickly going to be McIe Lemon as the clear wide receiver two here. But we're giving him that target share, which I think is pretty sizeable and looks to be in line with Greg Wretsch's. And we just come in way low. I just kind of on our back end messed around with his ceiling projection a little bit. We have him with an outside ceiling compared to your average player. Kind of in line with where we have your average first-round wide receiver. We kind of naturally give those guys higher ceilings. But I just found his ceiling up, his ceiling target share up 2%, which would kind of give him like the widest gap between base and ceiling projection of anyone. So basically testing what would happen if we gave him like the highest ceiling in the league. And we still come in 10 spots below his underdog ADP if we give him like the highest ceiling relative to his base projection in the league. So it's not really a knock on him as a player. It's just that given the fact that we have Devante Smith as the clear wide receiver one and even with a fairly optimistic lemon projection, which I think is completely deserving given the caliber of player that he is, we still come in just way low. So I'm not totally sure how to handle it and kind of want to hear Gretz's takes since he sounds really high on him as a player. Well, I know I've talked about this in past years. I haven't talked about it as much this year. It's a projection show. But I mean, I think the tank begs be a Namakai lemon thing really drives at home that I just I guess I don't think you have to rank players exactly where the projections come out. I think this is a clear asymmetrical profile the other direction. It's a small miss big hit profile. And I know like the way that you're doing the ceiling, you're really hammering it, but it's different than I just the way that I think about the way the asymmetrical stuff works with a small miss big hit, a small hit big miss and those things. I mean, it just it's hard to capture not everyone is a normal distribution curve. And it's really hard to capture everyone the same way in terms of what a base looks like, what a ceiling looks like. And so I mean, I'm not even that much higher than you guys. I'm a guy 11 to that point. I mean, the one thing I'm seeing is yards per target. You guys are just over eight between eight point 0 and 8.1 and just below 8.05. Basically, I'm at 8.5. I'll get into why I'm high on the ball and hand stuff and the ability to turn. I mean, he was over 10 all three years of his college career in yards per target. And there's reasons for that. He's one of these guys that does everything really really well. That's why it's my favorite receiving the class to just jump to that part of it. As he does, like you're talking about how he's better on the outside, he does everything you need to do. He wins short, he wins deep, he wins with the ball on his hand. He's very good at catch right standpoint. He's undersized at 192 when you ran a 45340 and there were some off like field stuff or like the some of the interviews or whatever. I think during the draft process or whatever it was, people weren't thrilled about. But this is they even though he's like not super athletic on paper, they used him as a kicker turner. They used him as a runner. The ball, the explosiveness of the ball and hand is there. If you watch him play, he's one of these guys that gets downhill and like turns corner backs around and is just eating up yards. Like I love guys to just get vertical like that's that's why it shows up in his stats. He doesn't dance around. He's not trying to make guys miss. He's running at you when he catches the ball. And that's what they that's what they use him as a kicker turner. It's very clear. If you again, if you just turn on a little bit of his state, how he rosemond lemon said there's a lot to like plays in the slot outside beats man, separation, physical player good with ball in the hands, good hands, good again, sound good instincts. I mean, I'm paraphrasing all that. That's everything that you need as a wide receiver just to sum that up. He mentioned everything. All the alignment, all of the ways you can play physical good with the ball in the hands. Like I said, the production profile is elite three or early to clear three plus yards per out one final two years. He was very limited in the first year. Huge targets per out each year. Huge yards per target each year. The evasion is awesome. The yak perception is awesome. That's why you get yards per target over 10 all three years because you're doing it before the catch point and after the catch point, even as a small sample freshman, yards per target was over 10 targets per out run over 26.5% both of the final two years. He got up to 29.3% in the final year. Profile was always good from the small sample rookie year. It improved over time, which you want to see. It sounds absurd, but I don't understand how there was even a debate whether he was the best water receiver in this class. I really do like Carl Tate. I have my shoes. I really do like Jordan Tyson, but both of those guys have some ball and hand issues. They have some red flags. This is a profile that looks so can't miss in all the ways that you want it to look. And then the Eagles are the team that said, like, yeah, he went lower and draft capital, but the Eagles are the best drafting team of the last decade. And they said, this is an awesome value. We're going to take Mokai lemon. Anyway, it is absurd, but I'm wrong often with the prospect stuff, but as far as the stuff that I looked at, he's not just better than the two guys that went ahead of him and the other first round rookie receivers that went behind him. He's sort of in a different tier as the one profile that doesn't have any red flags and feels so versatile, so high floor, plus high ceiling. I mean, I just really think this is what you look for in a wide receiver prospect. And so as far as the projection that you were talking about and you're one of those things, the big question. So I still end up projecting to want to Smith as a step forward because the wants to miss a good football player, man, consistent per out profile above average yards per target. He's not been great. And that's due to like limited ball in hand, but it's not horrible for how small he is. His catch rates are always strong. This is a good football player. He turns his opportunities into good yardage, but not elite yards per target, necessarily because of the ball and hand stuff, not being necessarily great. But again, he's going to catch a way higher percentage of passes than a guy his size has any right to. That's why the guy won the Heisman. Again, this is an example of a guy whose production was great in college and then has been good at the NFL level. These are the things that I look at his depth adjusted. Racer has always been really solid that goes back to the really high catch rate. He turns air yards into yards. His targets per out run though have never been above 22%. My when I wrote field tippers in the early off season, my expectation was this would be the year it would happen. AJ, because I was already predicting age browns going to get traded at that time. I was seeing a career year here. This is a guy who's really good after the catch. Yards per target. I mean, after the target is earned in terms of yards per target and all that stuff, but has not had the massive target per out yet. And if AJ Browns gone and he's to clear number one, then there's finally volume here and he'll probably maintain some degree of the efficiency because of the way that he has always done that. I think the kind of lemon complicates that a little bit. So I sort of split the difference. I thought I was going to wind up a lot higher on Devonthus miss target rate before doing the projection. Before, you know, they landed McCoy lemon and understanding that second receiving profile. I will say on wicks, they say this operation stand stood out for him. It's there in the targets per out numbers. The efficiency's always been the concern. They only sent a fifth and a sixth for him. He got nine million and fully guaranteed money tacked on to his deal, but his deal is previously a very small deal. They actually did that and added void years at the back. If flat ends is cap hit the next couple of years, they get it down to 2.3 mill this year, 3.6 mill next year. To me, this like the trade, the trade compensation and like the way that they did the money doesn't read like big think he's got some huge player. I'm hearing some stuff that like he might be ahead of lemon. This is like to me, what was at BC Johnson and Justin Jefferson as rookies that year. It's like, this is the BC Johnson of the situation. I was excited to see that you guys are as low as I am sub 50 targets on wicks because I was like because number three is in the Philly offense have often been very, very low based on how they do run run heavy stuff and they do the play action off of it and they throw and kind of hurts this kind of a one or two read guy and then he's either going to run or maybe he ends up taking a sack. They can throw, they can really concentrate on it's typically a J Brown or Devonta Smith or Dallas Goddard. And then famously whenever one of those guys is out, the other guys just still get all the work and like, Johan Dotson was in number three. He never did anything. I almost want to take even more off of wicks to give to lemon and Devonta Smith. Now that I see that you guys are in the realm of where I was because I was like, I feel like I have a huge gap between lemon and wicks, but you guys are pretty pretty similar there. But to me, wicks is, I mean, he's an interesting player with the targets per out run stuff and the separation Philly's in offense were number three receivers go to die is kind of the way that I think about that. And again, I want to be so high on lemon and I also think Devonta Smith is a really good player. I'm trying to figure out the gap between those two in terms of targets. I looked at my Saints projection and I had a similar gap to a Lava in Tyson, which is I think Smith's probably a little bit better than a Lava on like a per like route or target basis, like efficiency. What I mean, however, you wanted to find that a lot of is a volume hog is part of it. And then I think lemon may be a little bit better than Tyson. So I was trying to figure that out. It's tricky. I do think these two receivers are probably going to dominate volume by the end of the year. And then for lemon, it also may be one of these things were early in the year. He's not at the peak of what he's going to become, but it progresses forward and we get the backweight of their production, which we often do with rookies. I mean, if he went on a almond Ross St. Brown back half of his rookie season run like almond rod did late that rookie year, I don't think that should surprise anybody. This guy's got a really interesting profile. And against it has been tough for us because we do all love the talent. It's just the opportunity has been has been tougher for us to tickling onto here and and you know, McCyell lemon was a predominantly slot only player is his last season of closer to like 70% in the slot, you know, 28% out wide. So with with a team that projects to be pretty middleing and 11 personnel usage and and then you know, doesn't expect to have have a lot of pass attempts as a whole. I do think you need lemon to be very efficient in terms of of a yard's per target standpoint. That is a spot you mentioned. Grash that we're we're behind you were at a point. You're at 8.5. So maybe that's the spot we could come up. You also have eight rush attempts for lemon. We don't have any for lemon, which is probably an oversight on our part. We should probably get him some some looks in the rushing department just because he is a great ball and hand guy and you mentioned how he roseman alluded to that as well there. But you know, the wicks, the wicks deal being 9 million guaranteed this year. I thought was no worthy and then the Marquis Hollywood Brown was one year five five million fully guaranteed as well. So I you know, it's not I don't think at the end of the day those guys are are going to be big roadblocks to lemon, especially if he does you know, continue to show that talent throughout the course of the season. But it's not the worst competition or contract situation there for for lemons to overcome. Good good point there. I will know I strongly doubt the expected no kai lemon to be available to them when they drafted him. Yeah. And they have those free agent decisions earlier in the offseason. Obviously. For sure. And it was that draft a scenario where like the Steelers had called lemon telling them they were going to take him with the next pick and then the Eagles jumped up ahead of him. So I do think it was kind of that. Oh, hey man. You know, this guy's still here. We can we can get him for a decent draft capital like let's do it. And I think the the career trajectory for lemon is is extremely strong. Does that come to fruition in his rookie year? I think we are just a little bit more skeptical on that then. and then the rest of the market is at this point in time. All right, let's go to the Titan Room with Dallas Goddard and then Eli Stowers added here on terms of inputs. We're at 78 targets on Goddard, Gretches at 71. We're at 33 targets on Eli Stowers, Gretches at 50. So quite a big difference there between the two. We are certainly expecting Goddard to kind of hold down more of that Titan one inline role, whereas Eli Stowers projects as just kind of, more of like a jumbo slot receiver than an inline Titan at this point of his career. He was a converted quarterback to play Titan. So he's only had three seasons at Titan, but very athletic, 23 years old out of Vanderbilt here. But Goddard is a guy who saw his touchdown spike massively last year. He had 11 touchdowns, which was more than his previous three seasons combined. Historically, he's been a pretty modest touchdown-rate guy. So we have docked Goddard's, you know, Algo projection on the TD rate thinking last year was a bit of an outlier production season. But Goddard has been very consistent in terms of per game output at the Titan position last year was Titan five and 2024, Titan 11, then Titan 13, Titan five, Titan 10, the last five years. But I would say the biggest knock on Goddard, he hasn't played more than 15 games since 2018. So constantly, Nick Dopp hasn't put together necessarily a full season here. But Jack, we are, do you have a pretty massive gap on Goddard and Stowers compared to Gretches, Gretches 17 targets ahead on on Stowers and 7 behind us on Goddard any read on this Titan room? - Yeah, Stowers is another guy we've been low on all off season. I like the receiving profile a lot. I mean, it's hard not to, but this is one that I feel better about being low than someone like Lemon, who I agree with Gretches, just a really strong talent. The Eagles resigned Goddard to a one year deal. So I think that they're kind of showing that their plans are for Goddard to have their role this year. And Stowers next year, like you said, Goddard's been really consistent over the past three years. 18% target share in 2023, 19% each of the last two years. He does have a big targets per hour on without a J-Brown, but that's partially inflated by him playing some games without Brown and Smith with the Montaix Smith on the field and Brown off that drops to a 23% target per hour on 18% target share, which is more in line with his seasonal numbers. On Stowers, I just think it's kind of going to be a developmental year. He won the Mackie Award winner. He's an unbelievable pass catcher. I think that maybe, especially in this offense that wants to run the ball so much, I think that it makes sense to develop him a little bit. Jimmy Kemsky kind of made it sound like it's going to be that way. He said that Goddard and Johnny Mon are both clearly ahead of him on the death chariot. He said there's, as a rookie, there's no way that Eagles can line Stowers at tight end asking the block professional edge defenders at this stage of his development. He reportedly hasn't had a very buzzy offseason per Kemsky was pretty quiet in the early parts of the offseason. It's nothing on him as a pass catcher. I just think that with the way this offense functions and how heavy, how run heavy they want to be, I think being purely a pass catcher is a tight end to isn't an ideal fit. I think if Goddard goes down, he'd be clearly the most interesting of the back of tight ends, despite Kemsky saying, Mon is ahead at this point. But I think that the Eagles are kind of telegraphing how they want their tight end room to go over the next few years with Goddard being on a one-year deal. And Stowers being signed as a more development the long-term piece, but Gretches significantly higher than us. So I'm curious to hear what he has to say as like a counter argument there. No, I think you're right. I think you're right on this one. I got a little carried away with the-- a little bit of Stowers hype, but the Goddard profile. I'll give you some negative notes on Goddard as the reason for this. I tend to project health, but I have to cop to thumbing the scale here and wanting to come in low on Goddard. This guy was not played every one of his team's games until his senses Rookie Season in 2018. So the target stuff is really strong. His targets per game, I write it every year in my projections, I've been the same number like his whole career. It's like between like 5.1 and 5.5. Like every single game this guy's played as entire career, it's absurd. And every year on this show, and when I do my projections, I say if he plays every game, he's going to have a career year. Because he's going to finally run 450 routes, which he's never done. And he's going to turn that really consistent target per game number and target share number. However, he want to break it down to the same stats. He earns targets at a meaningful level. Although I will say his target's per out run fell more than 4.5 percentage points last year from the year prior, his yards per target fell. His yards run dropped drastically from the 2024, which was a 2.2 O yards per out run, but on a small route sample. And in 2023 and 2025, he's had bigger route samples. And he's been much worse in yards per out run. Those are his two career lows in the past three years and they're the bigger samples. And so there is a concern there. I was surprised when I went into this to learn that he turns 32 in January. I mean, Dallas got it to me is still the like backup to Zach Hertz that just came up. I don't know. I don't know how he's still-- he's this old. He played 15 games last year. It was tied for the most. He's played in several years. The year prior, he played 10, 14, 12, 15, 11, 15. It's been seven straight years where he's missed multiple games or at least one. I think one of those 15 games way back in the day was when they only had 16 game seasons, right? But he's been missing time. His missed tackles, force per touch has been down both the past couple of years, relative to his prime efficiency years. And he did used to be a guy who would rip off huge yards per target over 10. And we're down at like 7.2 this year. And then two years prior, the other big route sample, 7.1. In between there, he had a 9.5. So I mean, he did bounce back. But again, it was a small route sample about half. He only played the 10 games that year. And so there's this concern about age, but I agree with what Jack said about the kind of the multi-year plan there and stowers being a little bit more developmental. I just kind of wanted to thumb this guy to be a little bit lower on Goddard. I'll cop to it. One of the things I'll note on the touchdowns very much was some manufactured stuff when they were struggling with the sneaks. They did a bunch of shovel passes and stuff. Starting from the goal line, these are his closest ones. He had 11 TDs. I'm going to read off the shortest eight. One yard, two yards, two yards, three yards, four yards, four yards, five yards, and six yards. He had eight from six and closer. And he had six from four and closer. I mean, they were all within the five yard line, primarily. Which the year prior, he only had two touchdowns there. Both 14 plus yards of depth. The last time he had a TD reception inside the five yard line before last year was way back in 2022. We only had one that year. It's not like this is-- he's always caught a bunch of balls from the two and the three yard line. This is actually something that's never happened. Because they keep you sneak every time they get inside the five. And then suddenly he got all of it there. It's tough to bet on. Yeah, he had one. He had two touchdowns in the postseason game, a one yard rushing touchdown as well in the postseason game. So anyway, in terms of what he is going forward, you have to be aware of the mistime limitations. You can bet on that. I think in Manage Leagues, where you're like, whenever he's on the field, he's a pretty good per game guy, you can make that bet. I do think you have to be a little bit concerned about age. Some of the efficiency drop off that I was talking about. And there is just a little bit of a downward trend here. And then if the tight end stuff that was very manufactured isn't there this year, I think the fantasy scoring could actually be quite low. As far as stowers, I do-- well, they also sign month and stone smart. So they're like, they're getting deep in tight end room for sure here. We may see the multiple tight end stuff. And if we do see that, Eli's stowers may be able to split out a little bit more than the blocking concerns, maybe not there. We talked about Sadeek on the last show. And how Sadeek is like the best athlete at tight end ever. He ran the fastest 40 time and all that. He had these elite jumps and everything. Sadeek broke the 40 time record for tight ends of the combine. Stowers and his jumps at RAS are like 9.9. Stowers jumped two inches higher on the vert. And he's actually an inch taller as well. Stowers broke the vert record. He also broke the broad jump record for tight ends at the combine. So both these guys are athletic freaks, the top two tight ends in this class. He had a 451 40. Sadeek was at 439. I mean, it's not that much far behind. It's 0.12 behind. His 10 yard and 20 yard split were actually 0.05. 500's half of a 10th of a second behind. Eli's stowers is an elite elite athlete as well, similar to some of the Sadeek stuff. But what we have with him is, well, is a leap-per-out production, which we didn't really have with Sadeek. And he's a lot older, I'll note, because as Jack noted, he was a quarterback early in his career in college. He transferred twice. But when he got to tight end, quickly earned volume, real volume. Over 25% targets per out all three years, multiple strong yards per out run years. I just think this guy's good at the game. There's talk from the GM from Roseman about his QB instincts helping his feel on the field. As a runner, we've seen that with like Julian Edelman and stuff. I do like Jack's notes from Kemsky and some of the beats that like, there's a little bit more developmental needed here, especially on the blocking side. There's a lot of room to improve here, still, as they're talking about. The fact that he went to tight end and immediately was that dominant from a target perspective and a production perspective speaks to a real high ceiling for this player. And again, gets back to the Eagles. A lot of people had him as a first round pick. He goes in the second round. Eagles will always take the like very talented prospect the rest of the league is letting slide. And I think they did it again here. I think he could be an interesting late round guy if they do utilize him a little bit more in year one, even despite some of Jack's concerns, especially if Goddard's age and injury stuff really become a problem. But I do think everything Jack said is better than my projection. And I'm literally changing targets over back over to Goddard as Jack was talking. And this is a little off topic, but I think Starras could be a decent dynasty by far away through the season because of the stuff Kemsky mentioned. When we were talking about that in our Slack silver brought up that he thinks Starras might not be active in week one, which is obviously going to be, would be a bad look for a sucker on rookie, but I think that it would kind of fit the Eagles long-term plan and would not be something you want to overreact to. So just kind of a note on keeping the long view with Starras, if it starts out pretty ugly. - In pre-agency, it kind of seemed like the Eagles were going to move on from Dallas Goddard and then ended up not signing any other tight ends they were leading to David and Jokou for a little bit passed on that and then kind of signed Goddard a little bit late to that one year deal. So I think it's mostly, so you guys have alluded to, like, hey, let's run it back with this crew and while we have kind of this super bowl window and keep a veteran in the tight end room in Goddard, but certainly expect him to miss some games and then down the line expect Starras to emerge as the primary pass catcher there. All right, let's go to the Washington commanders, our third team of this division, Dan Quinn remains the head coach here, but we have a new offensive coordinator and play collar in David Blau, a youngster, if I will. One year younger than me, poor one out for us. Old guys as offensive coordinators are officially younger than me in the NFL this year, but Cliff King's very gone in this system. Obviously, Jane Daniels, a bit of a sophomore slump season, mostly due to injury, but also kind of had his metrics down across the board in terms of passing efficiency. So hoping for a year, three bounce back as Jane Daniels is one of our players were highest on the market on it at this point of the off season, but on a team level, standpoint, we're at 61.4 plays on Washington. Gretches at 63.1, we're at a 59.4% pass rate, Gretches at 59 and a half percent. So pretty much identical pass rates, but Gretches a little bit more optimistic on the play calling. I do think that is probably the biggest thing to talk about here because Cliff King's very has consistently run such fast offenses that typically produce decent play volume. In 2024, the commanders were second in real plays per game. That dipped all the way to 28 last season. Again, I think a lot of that due to the Jane Daniels in an out of the lineup and just the lackluster quarterback play. But certainly, I think the high end outcome is on the table here if Blau kind of runs it in the same mold as Cliff. So Jack, curious your thoughts on the team level inputs here for the commanders? Yeah, I think the pace is going to be down a little bit. Thormin seemed like he agreed. He noted that all four seasons is the Cardinals' head coach in both seasons in Washington, Cliff King's various teams were leading the league in no huddle rate. Now you've got David Blau coming over who worked under King's Burry, but also is likely-- or I should say, potentially influenced by his client career. He last played under Ben Johnson for the Lions in 2023. He had some exposure to Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota as well. He's kind of talking about a lot of the stuff that the sharper, younger Ben Johnson type guys are doing with more pre-stamp motion, more under-center play action. The commanders were relatively low in motion rate last year. I think that if we see more motion, that kind of eats into the seconds for snap stuff. So we're projecting a lower pace this year for Washington, which I feel OK about with Cliff Gone. And that's just kind of where we come in. So I read Thoreman's a little bit different. I read the-- everything he said about King's Burry, that they're going to be slower. But he noted that they will likely be somewhat slower this year, but there will still be plenty of real estate between where they were under Cliff and a league average pace. And then he talks about Blau having some exposure to some different stuff. And he finishes saying that Dan Quinn said, we'll see Daniel's huddle more often. But if a potentially faster Ben Johnson offense is on the table, it might just be something we're interested in. So I thought that was a little bit more optimistic in my read. And then Quinn had some quotes as well. And when asked about what Blau would do, when I was reading through the Coach Speak Index stuff, there's my mandated Coach Speak Index shout out for each show. And he just made a comment about how Jane Deans can play in all offenses. And so the way that I'm reading this is-- I originally thought the King's Burry firing was tough given how good Daniels was in 2024. He was very successful. And then he gets hurt a lot last year. And it had some weird games where he didn't even play very much like that at a game against Minnesota where Minnesota had some really long drives. They had like a 90 something yard drive in the first half. And then Washington had some long drives, but turned it over like deep in Minnesota territory twice. And then like Jane Deans hurt his elbow. And they're like, we're just pulling you out of the game. And we're going to just like quit playing for the rest of this game. It was like one of those games where team just packed it in. Because Minnesota had really kind of blown them out early in the game. And both teams had like no possessions. I remember writing about it and saying signals because I was high on the game environment, I think that week or something for DFS or whatever it was. And then I remember watching it and being like, they didn't even play a game. What happened? Because they ended up like, Jane Deans only ran like two possessions before half time. And then he was out of it and then that was it. There was nothing. Anyway, they had some of that stuff because they were kind of trying to protect him. They were kind of doing some weird stuff. The season wasn't going great. I still think Jane Deans is legit great. I think he was legit great. Is a rookie like part of the reason I'm high on this offense is I think they're going to bounce back this year because Jane Deans is him. Like that's where I'm at. So that's definitely part of it. Obviously I understand that there's huge concerns with this ability to stay healthy. That was in the prospect profile coming out. He got banged up in his rookie season. He got banged up last year. I don't believe there's a cap on his ceiling when he's on the field. I do think he's a superstar when healthy. I think that long view to the college data suggested that as well. It's just a question of health, but I'm mostly presuming health. And when I presume health, I'm looking at this. And so to get back to the blouse thing, he was on staff the last two years. I didn't really realize this when they first made the hire. But he was on staff the last two years as an assistant quarterback's coach. They hired from within. He's supposed to bring more under center stuff and play action. But the way that I looked at it was like it was a move to iterate off of what Kingsbury's already done, not changed drastically. My initial concern, like I said, was why would you change this whole offense with the RPOs and the things that Daniels does so well? Because he's like as good as Tua at diagnosing pre snap, pulling, throwing to the perimeter. They had such good catch and run efficiency in 2024. In addition to the running backs, getting really great rushing efficiency. Because of everything they were doing with this spread offense that again, we talked about like teams are moving more toward the under center, but not every team is going to do that constantly. When they're in the two minute drill, I think this team's still going to play up tempo out of the shotgun, you know, and that kind of stuff. It's something that Daniels does incredibly well. I think he manages that pre snap process as well as any quarterback in the league from his rookie season he had had done that and is able to understand where the defense is shaded and where there's numbers advantages, whether the ball needs to get to the perimeter, whether he hands off to the running back, whatever. So anyway, I do think it's going to slow down from Kingsbury because of the more under center stuff, more play action. I am predicting a slight run lean here. I have the actual pass rate right at the 2024 levels. It's up from the 2025 with the injuries and stuff. But I think if I miss this, I would lean toward them passing even more and being a little bit more fast paced in that direction. So that's where I was reading the blouse stuff, but you know, it is what it is. Oh, I also want to know Thorn. A lot of the other stuff that I had been looking at for O-Lines before Thorn came out, had them below average. Thorn had them at 12, which got me pretty excited as well, because I trust him more than anybody. Yeah, I thought that was a big, big rank as well. And Sam Cosme, he mentions, you know, as being like one of the elite players on this line. He was injured coming into last season, started the year on PUP and well, theoretically, have a fully healthy off season and Larry Mee-Thunsell at left tackle. Thorn thinks is one of the premier tackles in the league. I'll add in that Gretcht has had a very unique circumstance in which he complimentary, complimentarily said as good as Tua. That's the one thing, too. It does incredibly well. It's the short, quick accuracy is Tua's whole game. That's all he has. On Jayden though, you mentioned it at the top of this team that he's been a player. We've kind of, you know, he's, we've been substantially ahead of a market on him this off season. I've been drafting a ton of him and he's, he's even one where like when we did our first round of projections this spring, we came in almost like a full round higher in terms of in terms of our projection, we're and we're like, man, we kind of have to dial this back. Otherwise, we're going to be like 22 spots ahead of ADP hunt on Jane Daniels. Right now we're 10 spots ahead on on underdog, but the rushing profile is, is pretty nutty here for Jane Daniels. He's had close to a 13% scramble rate in his first two NFL seasons while maintaining, you know, efficient scrambling numbers there at 7.3 yards per per carry on those scrambles. And we're only projecting a 10% scramble rate again. We kind of just like, dial that back or expecting a little bit of regression because you don't see too many full time starting, starting quarterback scramble at at that rate. So it is interesting. You know, I think like probably the biggest knock on Jane's fantasy outlook is the pass catcher core here. You have Terry McClure and they drafted Antonio Williams, but beyond that, there's, there's not a whole lot to get excited about. I think this is a spot we are expecting a free agent signing to occur. Obviously the brand and I you steam was was ongoing for a while. but it seems like that has fizzled quite a bit, but there are several veterans out on the free agent market that could sign here, which I think would help solidify James passing outlook here. But in terms of projections, we're at 63.3% completion rate on Jane Daniels, scratches at 67%, so quite a bit higher. In terms of rush attempts, we're at 124 for 600 yards, scratches at 134 for 670 yards. We are a little bit higher on the rushing touchdown. It's a permanent, but again, I felt like we had to dial this back in order to not be even further ahead of market. So really, really love Jane Daniels in drafts this year, Jack, anything to add on the Daniels profile? Yeah, I love Jane Daniels in drafts. I think we've talked about, especially last episode with the NFC East, kind of what quarterbacks have this true game breaking ceiling we talked about Drake may potentially, despite being a very good rougher, not having quite that ceiling to break fantasy football as the overall QB1. I think Jane Daniels clearly has that upside. This is a guy who averaged six yards per carry on a 148 regular season carries as a rookie, and he was playing through injury for part of that. He had an 18% design run rate in week one before getting hurt in week two, and then when he came back, despite playing a little bit injured, he had three straight 13% games after that, and the couple of games he played after that, they basically stopped running him, but you mentioned the scramble rate. It was actually up last year from 11.8% in 2024 to 15.6%. Last year, that 15.6% is nowhere near sustainable, but the point remains that he is one of the highest volume scrambleers in the league. I think that there's some optimism that the Blau offense can provide more passing efficiency, Gretches significantly higher than us from a yards per attempt standpoint, which I don't really mind. We're kind of closer to his career numbers, but I think if they're doing more play action and more motion and more creative stuff, I think that you could see the passing efficiency come up despite the White receiver core, which I agree, is a concern, but they still have time to sign as the fond digs, or someone like that. So yeah, I think the Daniels is one of maybe three quarterbacks if you throw in Josh Allen and Lamar with the true high, high, high outcome as they're ceiling. And so we have him as the QB3. I think that he's going slightly behind May on Underdog, but we're almost around ahead of his Underdog EP, and I feel pretty good about it. The risk is there with the injuries and all that stuff. I agree that the floor is maybe not the same as a Drake May or a Joe Burrell or those guys, but I think when we're playing for ceiling, I think Daniels is in a different atmosphere than those guys. - I'm equally stoked. I love that you guys have more rushing TDs for him, and I'm tweaking my projections so I can just give him a Russian TDs site on scene because you guys are almost two ahead of me. - The rushing volume is the really interesting one, especially in a league where I just talked about how hurts was down like two plus Russia temps per game from his previous career low. We talked about on the AFC North show that Lamar Jackson was way down from his previous career low. He was played hurt last year. He had been 8.4 Russia temps per game every other year of his career was down to 5.2 last year. I'm projecting both Hertz and Jackson about 7.5. I'm projecting Daniels at 7.9. And so to lead the league in Russia's per game from a quarterback, he was at 8.3 Russia temps per game last year after 9.2 as a rookie. Still young we see guys as they age 10 to run a little bit less. Sometimes we don't have as much of a track record on aging mobile QBs 'cause that really just exploded. And then we're just starting to see those guys get older. But that was the case for some of the like, previous generation of somewhat mobile quarterbacks. But like Lamar has still typically ran until last year. Anyway, even though Daniels played hurt a little bit last year, he was still at 8.3 per game. I got him at 7.9. I got him below both of the last two years. For Lamar and Hertz, I'm projecting them to rebound from 2025. But still be below Daniels. That's just trying to drive home that if you wanna talk about range of outcomes type stuff, there are scenarios I think where Daniels is running a lot more than any other quarterback. I don't know that they want that because of the health stuff, right? So that's the important thing. But just in terms of looking at the numbers, guys play how they play. Jack talked about the really high scramble rate. One of the reasons I was really high on him is a rookie is I went through a scramble rate all the way back to Arizona State and college. They were always high. That year it was him versus Anthony Richardson who was going a lot higher. And Anthony Richardson didn't have high scramble rates in college. But everyone was like, look at how athletic he is. He's obviously a good rushing quarterback. That's not how it really works. You're talking about within the context of a play and reading it out and finding space. It's not just how fast you can run. You have to be a ball handler as well. And Jay Daniels has had that all throughout his college career and now both years of Zennepheil career, even when he's playing hard even when, you know, keeping him healthy seems like a key point. He has still run a ton. As far as the passing efficiency that I'm higher on, he played a little bit hurt last year. As I mentioned, had kind of the weird year. He also had term of chloron out for most of the year. And this is like his only good receiver. His completion percentage really fell, which I think is basically the entire reason that his yards per attempt and TD rate came down because you're talking about per attempt. His yards per completion was actually up a touch in year two from year one. So when he actually got the connection. And like, guys like Jaylin Lane, I was excited about Jaylin Lane. Jaylin Lane had a ton of drops last year. Like, Jay Daniels was having some issues. I don't know if those came from Mario or Daniels, but he was having some issues at the receiving side of things. Now, Washington is trying to let this extremely exciting player go. His whole career without ever giving him any players. Like the Patriots went out and got AJ Brown and all that stuff. He's like, they keep rent. They ran out the corpses of Debo Samuel and Zach Hertz last year as the number two and number three. And then we obviously see Terry McCormick get hurt. And it's like, great, what does he have? And this year, they've made very minor improvements, frankly. I'm pretty annoyed. Once again, at Washington, from not thinking that this guy has anything or needs any help, but then he'll also have to do more under center, which changes things a bit. But I believe in the skill set, I believe in his ability to throw short and deep. That was the big thing in the rookie season. The deep efficiency in addition to the quick, short area accuracy. Like I said, that's all two of has. And you know, Mike McDaniel was able to leverage that enough that they were able to win some games early into his career. People thought two was a much better quarterback than he ever was, frankly, just because of that one skill set. It adds a lot when you get that, get the ball out in the short area on time. The catch and run is there. Daniels has had that on the other end with, like, basically, every receiver that he's thrown to over the couple years as well. And he's had the short completions. There's been some catch and run on the other side of that. So I'm really, really high on the skill set on the passing side. That's why that I come out so high. And then the rushing side, I mean, again, he could wind up leading the league and rushing errands by a lot if Lamar is not pushing that. I think those are the two guys who, when you look at their career, the rush attempts and the rush efficiency on the yarded side get really, really high. It really hurts on the touchdown side. But yeah, we'll see how that all plays out. Let's get into the skill groups here because both the running back and wider receiver room are some of the most muddled in the league. Like, there's just a lot of bodies to sit through here, projection wise. I think so let's start in the running back room. They bring in Rashad White on a one year deal, $2 million contract with $1.7 million guaranteed. They have Ducorrii Croskey Merit as kind of like the incumbent RB1 here was a seven for on pick for them in 2025. They draft K-Tron Allen in the sixth round of the season. Then they also signed Jerome Ford to a one year, $1.4 million contract, only like, $440K guaranteed. And that deal though, but they also bring back Jeremy McNichols, who is on the team last year. He's on a one year, $1.5 million contract with $560K guaranteed. So in my view, you have K-Tron Allen and Ducorrii Croskey Merit as the most likely early down, rushing backs, whereas Rashad White, Jerome Ford and McNichols all por 5 more as pass catchers. But Rashad White has handled a lot of Russian work in his career as well. So I don't want to completely write him off there for like the base down Russian work. But in terms of inputs here, we're at 103 Russia attempts on Rashad White, Gretches at 131, we're at 41 and a half targets on white, Gretches at 54. On Ducorrii Croskey Merit, we're at 152 carries, Gretches at 173, we're all pretty low on the targets there though. We're at about 15 targets for JCM and Gretches at 18. And then on K-Tron Allen, just want to note this because we are a bit higher on him across the board. We're at 62 Russia attempts in 15 targets while Gretches at 28 Russia attempts and 5 targets there on K-Tron. So again, it's a lot of bodies to sip through, tough to find, or tough to completely nail down the roles. I'm eager to get some training camp news on this commander's backfield here soon. But Jack, take us through your thoughts on this Washington backfield. Yeah, Rashad White has been the subject of some hype this off season. I'm not really buying it from a rushing perspective career, 3.9 yards per carry. It seems like he's had opportunities to separate as an early down runner and never really take an advantage of it last year. Take advantage of it so far. Last year when Bucky Irving went down, he started as the clear everyone, but by the time Bucky got back, Sean Tucker had made serious inroads and actually outcarried Rashad White, 39 to 27 over the final three games before Bucky came back. I do think Rashad White is a good pass catcher. 1.44 yards per out run in 2024. As we're saving numbers, we're down a little bit last year, but it seems like everywhere he goes, teams kind of rave about his pass catching and pass blocking abilities. So I think that he's going to be the third down back here. I'm not totally buying the fact, the idea that he can be a three downward course. I think we've just tried that before and it hasn't really come to fruition. It's a Koby-Krowski merit. I just. a very interesting offseason last year and an interesting season as well. 4.6 yards per carry, 3.5 yards after contact for its aunt. I think that's a very impressive rookie year given that he was a late round NFL draft pick. But it was a weird season. The commanders went back to Chris Rodriguez. At the end of the year, Chris Rodriguez was kind of dinged up over the back half of the season, but he outcarried JCM in the final five games that he played and JCM was also a total zero as a pass catcher last year. 13% targets per out run. 0.65 yards per out run. I think that the decision to bring in Rashad White kind of ends a lot of the hope that the JCM can emerge as a three down back. I know there's been some talk this offseason that they want him to do that, but they really did not seem to trust him in that regard last year and then they bring in Rashad White. K-Tron Allen, they added 511-216-769 career college carries. I think that if JCM falters, potentially, we start to see him get involved. They don't think that he's going to be very involved early, but at this point, it seems like a pretty ambiguous backfield, so I'm not rolling out. Allen becoming a factor later in the season. Dane Brugler did note that he doesn't project how much of a special team's role. So with the amount of running back bodies they have here, that could leave him inactive in week one. Jerome Ford, McNichols, I'm kind of just treating as depth guys. I know McNichols had a couple, at least one long run last year, but it kind of seems like they've settled on JCM as their early season, early down. Are we one at least brought in Rashad White for pass downs? I'm not really expecting much from him. This year's Jerome Ford, very cheap contract. It seems like Rashad White is probably better at the the pass catching role that they could have used Jerome Ford for. So I'm thinking it'll be white on pass downs. JCM on early downs, K-Tron Allen likely not having much of a role early, but potentially figuring in late if they're not happy with what they're getting on early downs. Yeah, that's good. I'll just just going to say today and Bigos Backfield point, like we we've been behind on both Rashad White and JCM to this point a little bit ahead on K-Tron Allen, which I don't love, especially seen that Gretches has the touches more condensed on white and Crosky Merit. So I am eager to hear your thoughts on just kind of the role distribution and how you see breaking down. I think K-Tron Allen's profile is a little bit intriguing, pretty decent little rushing profile. Poor receiving efficiency. Decent size didn't test. His calling card is as Jack said, had a lot of work. 900 plus yards from Scrimmage Force Trade Years of College. I mean, you can obviously do things. I like production. Like I always talk about that, even at running back. I mean, but I do think it's a little bit of a Jack of all trades master of none type of profile. It's maybe part of I didn't see if he didn't test because of an injury or none. I wanted to look into that. I forgot to, but I got the impression it was maybe similar to like Jonah Coleman, who's like that who basically was like, I don't even know how slow I am. And I was watching K-Tron Allen and on film and I was like, has guys not like super explosive. So that's probably the other reason that I felt that way. And then around six pick. And then to Jack's point, you have McNickles, you have Ford. Those guys are more they're going to do more on special teams potentially and different things. McNickles has been there for a long time. Ford got the small contract. I only projected four running backs because I only have like so many flex spots. And I had to use one of my flex spots for wider receivers, which we'll get to. They have a lot of players that you should project. I don't have enough in my spreadsheet to handle it. So I didn't you guys have five projected here running backs. I only have four. But to Jack's point, K-Tron Allen may be an active. If they think Ford and McNickles are guys in one active at the three and the four. If they get four guys active, I think it's going to be pretty consolidated on white and JCM. Optimism on white. And I've always been a white hater like legit. I was not that I like the profile coming out. I don't like watching him. Like from a film perspective, I think he's stuck in concrete when he gets the ball on any hand off. He's so slow back to the line. And I was a big buck year of in guy from pre rookie season. As listeners of the show will remember. And so, you know, you naturally have to hate Rashad white. If that's the case, the fact that he's so slow and the yards before contact are so bad so slow back to the line of scrimmage. As his biggest weakness, I actually weirdly think is a reason to like him more because every Washington running back in this offense seems to get explosive runs. Chris Rodriguez got him. You mentioned Jerry Mimic. Nichols got him JCM immediately. Got him last year. Austin Echler bounce back efficiency wise after leaving the chargers and was getting him. I'm forgetting someone but like every dude that's played Brian Robinson was getting explosive plays in 2024 and then they got rid of him. They're like this guy's not even good. But I think some of those were in the past game, but like these guys find space again gets back to Jane Daniels when you have the QB mobility. It adds to the rushing efficiency and the way that they pull and throw to the perimeter on the RPOs and the quick hits. I think it creates I think it spreads defenses horizontally at the line. I think this is the thing that Cliff King's worries offense has done really well. And then that creates running lanes in the middle. Well for shot white is horrible at getting up to speed, but he's actually good in the open field. He's a big back that does have pretty good straight line speed. This is a perfect offense for him. If they can get him some some holes to run into that he can take three hours to get to, he's going to actually be able to create some big plays once he gets there. And he's had those big plays in the passing game. Where shot white has always been able in the flat to catch my favorite skill set for him has always been that he catches and moves forward with the ball. There's a lot of running backs as receivers that just catch the ball and like they're stopped and they have to turn and see the field. Where shot white will catch the ball and be moving down field. And if you go look at his receiving efficiency and like his yards per catch and yards after the catch, they've always been really strong. Go back to college. They were good. And I think a big reason for that is despite his slow feet as a runner as a receiver, he actually gets a head start. He starts moving his feet as he's catching the ball and gets into space quickly. And then is able to create big plays off of that because he actually can he's a big back. He actually can be pretty good in space. And so as a guy that I, you know, again, don't even necessarily really like. I really like the fit for him. And I'm actually pretty in. I also know he had a 1500 yard season with Jane Daniels at ASU as is he was the clear best skill position guy there. The brand I you tie and always comes back. But Jane Daniels trying to get the whole ASU band back together. That's where a shot white tie in comes in as well. And they've been talking all off. He's about really liking his past catching. They also really like to court crosskey merit. I think people be surprised. I just saw in raw numbers, to court crosskey merit who people talked about as like a bust because he had all this optimism. He ran for 800 yards and eight touchdowns last year as around seven rookie. That's really good. They've had a low running back target right here. I will note that Austin Eccler had 48 and 14 games over the past two years for about 3.4 per game. So a guy who has a reason to try to get him the ball in the past game. They got him the ball in the past game. So that's part of why I'm bumping. Reshaud white targets up. But I'm pretty low on the rest of the running back targets. White was always at 3.7 targets per game or higher up until last year. He was down to 2.6. Ecclers I mentioned was 3.4 per game in his 14 games with Washington over the last two years. When Jane Daniels was on the team, I've got white around that range. I don't know exactly where I had him, but it's very similar to that. I think it was the low threes. But yeah, Bill was only at a 7.9% targets per route. Extremely low. No intent to game them on the passing game. He was solid as a runner. My concern on him is that it's maybe a trap profile again. So we're similar to the sake one thing. It's like, are you going to get the rushing TDs? I do have them for a high rate there. I don't feel like he's going to get anything receiving because beyond white, Ford and McNichols also have receiving a pass down chops in background. I did want to interject there on kind of like the high value touch discussion because that that's a me is where I'm a little bit more afraid of being behind market on on Reshaud white. Just given that I think he is going to be the primary pass catcher in this offense. And then I do think you probably profile us as like the early week goal line back as well. You know, he's six foot two 15, whereas JCM is 5 11 to 8. But last year, they really leans on Chris Rodriguez inside the five yard line. He outcarried JCM 13 to 8 in that regard. And JCM only had two touchdowns out of those eight touchdowns on the season for him inside the five yard line. So a lot of those came from further out. And so and I also just don't think the path to, you know, reasonable pass catching upside is there either when you have white there, you also have Ford and McNichols who, you know, McNichols, they went to and in the routes department down the stretch over over JCM. Last year. I had the same thought. I had the same thought about the goal line work. But I that my concern about Reshaud white's yards before contact. That was all like relative to size. That was always the reason I was one of them to use Bucky Moore and Tampa. And I think it's why Sean Tucker ultimately got like Chris Rodriguez is a straight line downhill runner. No, no, you know, doesn't waste energy. Lot like Sean Tucker for sure. They may, they may start white that way, but they may decide by like week two that this dude takes way too long to get back to the line. Yeah. Yeah. That and, you know, I do think if Kachron Allen emerges, it could be as as more of a goal line threat. You know, he's he's a good 10 to 15 pounds heavier than JCM. Also, again, we haven't seen that at the NFL level. But I just see it see like multiple roadblocks to JCM in terms of the goal line role and and the pass catching role, which, which makes me not love him despite how how efficient he was as as a as a as a rusher and in his rookie season. And then we get the, you know, commanders, 12th and in thorns offensive line rankings. You have Jane Daniels, you know, projected to play a full season like this is a valuable backfield that I want, you know, some pieces of and and I've I haven't loved that we've been like behind market on on white and JCM. So I do think that's a spot I kind of want to consolidate a little bit more after this. Again, I would personally lean probably, you know, whites, um, a little bit more in that conversation. But, You know, again, it. It's one two, I hope in training camp we get, we get some clarity on this room. All right, let's go to the wide receiver core. Tons of bodies to sift through here as well. Terrama Cloren leads it off here. He had a thousand yards for five straight seasons prior to last year. Had not missed a game in four years before picking up some injuries last year. One thing that did sneak up on me a little bit with Terrama Cloren, he does turn 31 in September this year. So kind of getting to that point in the wide receiver age cliff that we could see sun decline. But in terms of efficiency on a yards per target basis, McClellan has been outstanding. The past couple of seasons had that breakout year in J. Daniels rookie season as well. So don't have too many concerns, but it is something in the back of my mind there on Terrama Cloren in terms of our inputs for this wide receiver room. We're at 102 targets on McClellan. Gretches all the way at 132. So pretty massive gap there. Antonio Williams for 54 targets. Gretches at 75 and then on trail on Berks were at 49 targets. Gretches is at 21. So massive discrepancies here in the wide receiver room, which honestly, I'm not too surprised by just giving our lack of confidence and kind of how this is going to shake out trail on Berks to get the routes towards the end of the season, but was not productive in them has really struggled to stay healthy since being drafted in the first round by the Titans a few years ago. And this is also a spot we are holding some targets back expecting them to sign a free agent wide receiver. So we haven't like distributed all the targets in this wide receiver room yet. So I think that adds to the discrepancies as well. But just to round out this, this wide receiver core, they did bring back Deami Brown, who you know, one year kind of hiatus there in Jacksonville. They have J. Daniel Lane coming into his second season. They have Luke McCaffrey in this room as well. And then Ban Jefferson, everyone's favorite route runner and non producer gets in this room as well. So tons of bodies to sit through Jack. But I think we should hit on, you know, probably Terry McCoron and Antonio Williams since those are the two fantasy viable wide receivers at this point in time. Yeah. So Terry is interesting because despite the as you actually had a three year high in targets per hour on last year, 24%. But the thing with him is he's been at 21% 22% and 20% targetures over the last three seasons. At least I was targeted dating back through 2022 right now. But I don't think he's ever had a target share above 24%. He's always he's very, very consistently been in like the 20 to 24% target. I think quite literally every year of his career. And so I'm a little I don't know if he has like true alpha wide receiver one ceiling just because we haven't seen it to this point. And now he's 31. Like what are the odds that he actually reaches this upper 20% target for the first time in his career at a more advanced age. I think that he's very dependable. Obviously he hadn't missed the game over the previous four seasons before playing 10 last year. So I think you know you're getting out of Terry. There weren't really signs of slowing down last year. So I'm not too worried about that. The touchdowns did drop off a lot last year. Proud of that is the strength of the offense. But he had 13 touchdowns in 2024. I don't really have any targets inside the 10 which didn't rank all that high league wide. So a lot of that was long touchdowns. So I think that it's unreasonable to expect 13 touchdowns moving forward. And I think that Terry is a solid fantasy wider secret too. But I question whether he has like a true top six ceiling. Antonio Williams 78% of career snaps inside at Clemson. He was a big time recruit. From what I've read he's dependable. He gets open. They use them a bit in the rushing game as well. So I think that he's probably the favorite for slot duties. At least this thing stand right now and given that the other names they have are trailing Berks, Dale and Landy on the brown. I think that he has a reasonable path to being Jindanniel's Biter Seever 2 as a rookie if they don't add someone. But I think that they probably will add someone. They've just been rumored to be in maybe not discussions. But it just seems like a reasonable spot for a free agent wider Seever. Obviously I you kept the relationship with Jindanniel's that he has since burned that bridge. But Stefan digs from Maryland still waiting. And I think it's been training in the area. So I think that that would be a reasonable landing spot for him. So I think a lot of Williams value comes down to what they do or don't do at wider Seever. The rest of the off season. Anchoreth is quite a bit higher than us on Williams, which might just be the difference in we have some unlisted wider Seever target share right now that Gritch might not have. But I think Terry is the big one here to nail down. And I think that the base work is pretty dependable. But the ceiling I do question given that he hasn't shown the ceiling yet. Yep. Love that note on Terry. That's been my take on him for years when I've been writing about him is that I don't know that there's a real ceiling. And I think after his rookie year, I argued that probably on this show that people were double counting the J and Daniels effect because he already hit the like ceiling when J and Daniels is a rookie and that everyone's like, yeah, he's got the best quarterback of his career. One of the ways that I broke that down was that even with the huge touchdown, right, the 13 TVs or whatever it was his fantasy finish and his ADP were basically the same numbers. Like why does he were 14 finish and why does he were 14? He's never had more than like 1100 yards in a season. So the question is, why am I suddenly projecting it now? Because I am meaningfully higher than you guys. Part of that is I am projecting this as if there was no new addition at wider receiver two. I think we all expect that at the same time it does not happen yet. We're recording this on July 22nd. And this team seems to think that they don't need skill position players. So who really, I mean, who knows if they think they're actually going to do it. I wrote there's enough of an opening at my notes that a wider see for two that a new addition, maybe wouldn't impact my McCorme projection that much. I think it would probably project our impact in Tony Williams as well as potentially Chig of Conquo who I have an aggressive projection on as well. Those are the two that I felt like and then it would really push more. It would concentrate things. I said it would, it would steal from the wider see for two to wider see for six in my projections. The way I handled it, not having that was pushing a lot of volume down the total pull. I have several guys for 20 plus targets. I think even more than this, I have Luke McCaffrey in mind as well. And then what we have in our comparison sheet here. But as far as McCorme, he had the really high astronomically high TD rate in 2024. And there was real TD rate regression last year and he's coming off his first real injury. The same time, even though he's turning 31, if I'm in about 31 year old receiver, I want to be somebody who's coming off career highs in targets for out in yards per run. We actually did see last year a little bit of something that I was saying going into last year. I didn't think you know, Terry McCorme was actually because I thought it was all touchdowns in Jane Daniels rookie year. Last year he actually jumped to 22.5% targets per route and 2.22 yards per route. Obviously he got hurt and he missed some time. You noted the target share elements of that or that they didn't jump quite as much. But those were career highs for him in the per route stuff at least. I think he's an efficient player tied to a good quarterback where the ceiling's often been in question like that, that whole thing, whether he's great, whether he's just very good, but I am a little bit about it and also a little bit about the excitement around them potentially moving them around more for the first time in his career. He's always been like stuck on one side on the outside is by understanding. And then this new offense being a little more under center, probably going to a little bit more of heavy tight end stuff. They brought in a conque while they still have sonat and baits. They're still talking about hurts like he may play for them this year, even though he's rehabbing it in a CL and it seems like he's not on the roster as far as I can understand that they talk. Yeah. Sorry to cut you out that injury also happened in the Minnesota game, which was like week 14 and it was it was a pretty gruesome injury. I would not expect her to back you know with any meaningful really role this season. But then they also have Colson Yanke off who they talk about favorably. Lawrence Cajure they actually talked about. He's their fifth tight end. They also brought in Anthony Furxer as a free agent tie in and got a UDFA quentin more. They are like trying to get some tight end depth. I feel like they added two free agents and they already had a bunch of other dudes on the roster. I think with the under center stuff and the shift toward Shanahan and Yadiada we may see more multiple tight end sets this year, which would then naturally consolidate volume onto the main wide receivers. So I think there is a possibility to Jack's point. And he was saying I don't really know why at age 31 we would suddenly expect him to take this next step. And I've never seen that interior McClaurne's profile. I do actually think there's the possibility that it could happen based on the fact that he had in his injury play season last year a little bit more of a step forward in the per out stuff and then also kind of the way the offense would evolve. Maybe moving him around and some of that stuff. I do think losing Zacharyts is like an underrated development for the commanders and and J and Daniels when you look at like our target per out run tool with with J and Daniels at quarterback over the last two seasons. Erts had a pretty pretty similar target per out run to Teram McClaurne. He was at like 20% whereas as McClaurne was at at 21%. The last two seasons was called 11 touchdowns. His accords over his last two years with the commanders. So I know he was a bit of a punching bag there, but that was a safety blanket and kind of like Daniels very consistent number two target in the offense. So I do think that is a pretty big boy to fill in and it makes sense why they I think through a lot of resources at the tight end position. You mentioned Chega Conqua which which I was eager to talk about with you guys because he did sign a three year 27. $10 million contract, close to $17 million guaranteed. You know, he's one of these tight ends that a lot of times we take, we see, you know, it takes a second contract for them to break out. He's entering year five here, turns 27 in September. So kind of like in this profile, I do think there is upside on Chig in terms of our inputs there. We're at 71 targets, Gretches at 83. So a typical gap that we see, you know, just between our projections. So it's not like Gretches super high there, but that is a spot that we have consistently like picked up Chigs target share as the off season has gone along. He's also, I think if they did not sign another, you know, wide receiver would be a bigger beneficiary, probably bump him up like one to 2% in base target share. If they don't add competition again, we've kind of been just holding back targets here with the fear that that they signed someone we end up having to dock everyone as the off season goes along. So, you know, I do think it is kind of between Chig and Antonio Williams for the second target in this passing game. Gretches has 75 targets on Antonio Williams and 83 on Chig. So Gretches you see Chig as probably like the, you know, the number two target in this passing game. And like I said, we've kind of been bumping him up, trying to get closer to market. We're currently around behind ADP on Underdog. He's going to pick 140 overall as the Titan 16. We have him ranked 153rd at Titan 21. So a little bit behind market. And when you look at Chig's profile, he has not been a touchdown score to this point in his career, only 2.9% career, TD rate, which is, you know, pretty atrocious for the Titan position, but he's also playing for a Titans team that, you know, is one of the lowest scoring touchdown offenses in the league throughout his career. So I don't know whether to like knock him for that as a skill set or if that's just more like a team level vibe there for the Titans, but Gretches, how do you view this landing spot for Chig and do you think that this could be a potential breakout season for him? - Well, I think it's a great landing spot for Chig. You have a great quarterback and you have no tight, you know, number two competition as it stands. And that's the way, as I mentioned, I had to make a decision. I decided to project it. I feel like if they were going to bring in Diggs, they may have already done that by this point. I don't, I mean, I thought IUQ was going to land there for sure if I had done this projection two months ago, I probably would have put IUQ into my projection, but I had to kind of make a decision as I went into it. And I was like, you know what? I'm just going to project it as I have it standing because we're in late July and they have not brought anyone else in. And from that perspective, O'Conquo does look like he could be the second best guy. He's been a little bit lackluster on the Per Out stuff in Tennessee, but like not bad, consistently decent. His target's Per Out run is Yars Per Tuggett have all been like in a, and I think even his routes run, have all been in a very tight band for like three straight years. I think there's room for that to open up in Washington with the new contract. He has good ball and hand skills, which is something I really like with him as far as Williams who I kind of skipped over because I have a big projection on him too. But again, it's because I'm not really projecting a number two. He's got an interesting player, maybe limited. He's small, but very fast, had a good vert. He's explosive. As ball and hand is just okay for his speed, but it's not terrible. They did use him as a runner and a returner. Like in college, they're trying to get the ball in this guy's hand. It's weird 'cause he had early production too. 600 receiving yards is a true freshman, but then never really hit a ceiling production wise. And so I'm, he had a really high target's Per Out run, but the A Dot wasn't super high. He's a versatile player. They had him throw a bomb on the first play in one of their games at Clemson. He threw a dime for a long touchdown. He's done a ton of different stuff. I think they'll find ways to give him the ball. I've been 13 carries as well. They may use him in the return game. I gave him 75 targets on the assumption that there is no number two in the offense. So it's a lot of McClaur and then I have 83 for O'Conquo. So it's a lot of McClaur and up over 130 and then O'Conquo and then Williams and then a lot going to a lot of different places after that. I came in thinking I would be higher on trailing Birx. He got a lot of work last year and I thought it was impressive because he probably wasn't in their plans and he managed to get a lot of work. But then I was reading the offseason quotes. All they could talk about is Van Jefferson. Every team that brings in Van Jefferson loves the way Van Jefferson practices. None of them will ever learn Van Jefferson, the bait of my existence. I didn't project Van Jefferson, but I ended up pulling down Birx a little bit because they were all talking about Deami Brown who had a good 2024 with Jane Daniels. They brought him back. They got Jalen Lane. Jalen lost work as the season went along, but they were talking about him maybe being a year two guy. They got Luke McCaffrey who was actually the most efficient of these random guys last year. And Luke McCaffrey had a fun little profile last year. So I ended up projecting him as the wide receiver, whatever, six. But I didn't project Van Jefferson. It seems like Van Jefferson is actually going to make the team and run a lot of routes, which is good for anyone else running routes because Van Jefferson is terrible. Yeah, so many bodies to step through here. So I do think it is focusing on McClaur and Antonio Williams and Chig as the fantasy liable ones. But Jack, in terms of this tight end room, I think the knock on Chig as well as that he had a tough time consolidating snaps and Tennessee. He never had a season over 66% snap share and then down the stretch, it was losing routes last year to Gunner Helm. So despite signing the big contract, like we mentioned a lot of bodies in this tight end room. They also signed John Bates who had three year, $21 million contract with 11.5 million guaranteed. So he's going to be in their plans even though he's more of a blocker. I'm just a little bit worried about the overall playing time at in route rate for Chig. So curious your thoughts here on a conqo. Yeah, I think the routes are the big question. He's consistently been, in my opinion, a pretty good pass catcher in Tennessee, 21% target per out run. Last year, 20% year before, 21% in 2023, the yards per target has not been great. 7.4 career yards per target. But I think a lot of that doesn't look as bad when you contextualize it with the fact that he played in one of the worst offenses in the league for his entire playing career. But despite that, despite being a solid receiver who I've always liked, he's been at 58% routes for the entire season for each of the last three years. He split with Josh Wiley in 2024 and then Gunner Helm last year. There have been stretches where they played him for a lot more snaps and had him run a lot more routes than that. I think at the end of 2024, he was posting some really big route rates and some really big territories to go along with them, which I think got everyone excited and it got me excited. But they've always kind of dialed it back and never really trusted him in a three-down role. He's listed at 6-3-238, which is small for an NFL tight end. So I think having John Bates there as potentially a blocking tight end could eat into his snaps. They've been talking about Chig really positively all off season blouse, said that blouse has been impressed by Chig's versatility reportedly. John Kime has reported multiple times that tight ends are expected to be more involved in this offense. And you mentioned Zachary, it's just targets per hour run. So there is history of tight ends being involved in kind of saying they might be even more involved, which makes sense, given the more under center and the more play action. So I think the upside case is there on a per route basis with Chig. And I like him on a per route basis. My only question would be how many routes is he going to round the Titans, never really trusted him in a true three-down role. He's small for a three-down tight end. If you would tell me that he's going to run 75% plus percent or outs, I think I'd be a lot more in on Chig. I don't hate him where he goes as of now to spite our rank because he has been, in my opinion, a solid pass catcher in the runways clear for him to be essentially the White or Silver 2 here, if they don't sign someone. But I do think it's notable that the Titans, despite trying him in a three-down role, have always kind of gone back to playing him in a very part time role. And they do still have bases up blocker there. All right. Let's go to the New York Giants last team of the division for us to cover in a lot of turnover here to discuss as well. John Harball in as the head coach. And then Matt Nagy becomes the offensive coordinator and play caller here for the New York Giants. I mean, man, just Matt Nagy getting another crack here at the offensive coordinator as Kansas City pretty much just let's him walk out the door there, had no interest in retaining him. But on team level here for the Giants, we're at 61. Place grutches at 61.3. We're at a 58.4% pass rate. Grutch at a 59% pass rate. So we're pretty low on Place per game and pass rate here. We have the Giants 23rd and Place per game in 26. And pass rate, we're kind of looking more towards just how like the Ravens have operated over the years. Not only is Matt Nagy there, but Greg Roman is also an offensive assistant here for the Giants. So Harball kind of, you know, running back with his favorite boys here with the Giants. So I think it's fair to expect a slower pace and higher rushing rate here for the Giants offense. They have the 17th ranked offensive line, according to Brandon Thorn. And then, you know, just wanted to note as well on a team level that Baltimore has been deadlast and 11 personnel usage by a lot, each of the last two seasons. And you have Isaiah likely come over here to the Giants sign a decent contract. And they also bring back Theo Johnson in the tight end room. So I think we're heading to, you know, another offense with slow pace, you know, higher rush rate and then multiple tight end sets, which kind of saps some fantasy value here from the secondary players. But Jack were overruching thoughts on the Giants outlook this season. Yeah, I mean, they don't have Lamar Jackson or Derek Henry. So I don't think they're going to be quite as run heavy as those Ravens offenses. But Jack's in Dart is on their record saying, it sounds like we're not going to be throwing the ball out. We're going to keep giving it the Camp Skettaboo until they can stop it. So I certainly think that they want to run the ball. Pat Dorman sounded pretty pessimistic on the Giants pace and his pace preview. The Giants average single game No Huddle Ray with Jack's in Dart healthy last year was 25% Dorman tweeted out some really good stats on Dart from No Huddle, versus the No Huddle. From No Huddle, you have it 7.9. per attempt completed 68% of his passes for touchdowns, no picks. When the Giants huddled last year he average 6.4 yards per attempt 63% completion, 11 touchdowns, five picks. So I think that it's an interesting mesh where you'd expect a slower off-entier but there was substantially more efficient last year. When he didn't huddle they didn't huddle at all miss. Or they did a lot of no huddle at all miss I should say. But I think that given the coaching change we should expect a slower pace than what we saw with our last year and certainly a lower a more run first offense given what DARK has said as well as what this offensive staff has done at previous stops. The offseason coach speak on on Cam's got to have been pretty high consistently from from John Hobba and obviously Darden and a scatiboo not on the same level as Lamar and and they're kind of like you alluded to there Jack but I think especially with kind of the concern over Malik neighbors knee injury and him potentially starting the season on on PUP again hoping we get some more clarity on that as training camp approaches but I do think this is likely going to be a rush first offense Gresh do you see see things any any differently here? No seems like that's what Harbal wants to do is put together a great staff huge fan of Matt Negi and Greg Roman this is super exciting in 2026 NFL it does make me feel better about what we have in so many of the other offenses and part of the reason that some of these shows have gone so long as you know we're talking about these new coordinators and the fun ones in this division this is this is the you know 20 years ago NFL but they do have a better defense or an expected better defense they have done some work on the offensive line and took a guard tent overall the expectations aren't like super high but Thorn had him a little higher than some of the other people they have Andrew Thomas as the key left tackle right he could be a star but the health is always a thing with him I didn't go like crazy on the low PROE relative to the expected pass rate because they have obviously a lower wind total and so their expected pass rates a little bit higher and that's why I came in a little higher than you guys here but like here you guys talk about it I'm like I'm probably too high I just want them to be even lower as a run team I mean I do think they're gonna try to play that style the defense and run style that you guys are talking about all right let's go to Jackson Darts fantasy outlook in terms of inputs they were at 496 pass attempts Gretchen 513 pretty even on the completion percentage and yards per attempt were both at like 7.25 roughly on Dart we do have Jackson rushing a little bit more than Gretchen does we have 108 rush times for 468 yards Gretchen's 98 attempts for 512 yards so quite a bit higher on the efficiency we are a little bit higher on on rushing touchdowns for Dart as well at 5.5 Gretchen 5.1 and that that was that's what really stuck out to me are not Darts profile as she is he ended up with with nine rushing touchdowns on in just 12 starts for him so you know pretty monster output there for for Dart on the grounds had seven rush touchdowns in his first seven games as a starter not only two in the final five he also dealt with you know some some concussion and injury issues on you know but harbond kind of offseason comments and we alluded this with Jane Daniels like Jackson Darts gonna play the way he plays you know he was a little bit reckless and thrown around his body sometimes like Lauren the shoulder and and had trying to get the extra yards maybe he can you know kind of learn to slider avoid contact a little bit better but I do think the rushing output is gonna consistently be strong for Jackson Dart throughout this season in his career if if he wants to you know remain a positive you know EPA per play quarterback in in the NFL for his career so Jack what are your thoughts on on Dart Henry and his sophomore season yeah the rushing stuff is interesting considering the injuries he dealt with last year he averaged 8.5 rushing fantasy points per game last year that's via John Degle that is an incredible number seven carries inside the five he had a 10% seasonal design run rate but he had a at least a 15% design run rate in four of his first seven starts and then it kind of slowed down after the injuries I think that the injuries and kind of preserving his health should be a top priority for the Giants just given that they want him to be their franchise quarterback but with that being said it's such a big part of his game and John Harbaugh has said we can run our B.O.s we can run quarterback driven run so it sounds like they plan to keep the design runs in his game which is big for his fantasy value he did 9.2% scramble rate last year which is really really high so I think a lot of his actual value comes down to how much he keeps running it sounds like I agree with you that it's kind of a big part of his game it's gonna be tough for them they're like face it out and it sounds like they don't really fan to face it out and yeah I still have questions about him as an actual passer 6.7 yards per attempt he took a sack on 9.4% of his dropbacks his receiving score is a big question I think with neighbors potentially on the man going into the season they don't have a whole lot behind him they lost one dollar Robinson obviously the soft season as well so a lot of his value just comes down to how much he can provide as a runner. Any at 34 designed rest attempts in those 12 games last year we're only projecting 31 design carriers that that does not include sneaks or scramble there for dark so that was almost a spot where I thought we could come up you know kind of looking at this but again we are projecting more rush attempts than Gretchen I'm curious your thoughts on on the rushing input specifically here for dark that's where I took it from I I don't have the exact number of design runs I do it I think I mentioned this I do it as like a ratio of dropbacks just because everything in my quarterback stuff is based on the per dropback rate even though that doesn't make a lot of sense because it's a design draw relative to dropbacks or different different things but I did I did make a note that I reduced design run rate specifically because of health is such a hot topic and how they want to run the offense and those things I thought he played really well time see came in with really good metrics on deep passing that was the big note on him in last year's class was that he had the best deep passing efficiency some people thought that was more gimmicky coming out of the link if an offense I thought he showed that at times last year through some great balls I was reading some of my stealing signals right up from in season and I had some notes in there that he wasn't always picked up by the receivers like particularly Darius Slighten who as we get to receivers I see you guys have projected as the number two and that's part of the reason why I pushed him down a little more is I mean I think they like Darius Slighten he gets open and he draws volume and he's been efficient but man he had some drops issues last year he had a big offensive pass interference that cost him a potential long touchdown that would have helped Jackson's darts efficiency as well I mean you can argue that he only got the long touchdown because of the offense pass interference I believe a lot of people thought it wasn't a penalty anyway I was reading back through some of that stuff and remembering that dart did throw some good deep balls that didn't that that didn't show up in the actual official stats I think he's a good a good young quarterback he was and young in an operative word because he was a very young rookie last year going into your two here but for all the reasons you guys said I mean there's not Jack just mentioned there's not the the same depth at receiver behind neighbors and then you also have the neighbors injury but with no one-down Robinson and those things and they sign a bunch of random free agents that are washed juju and Odo Beckham and all these dudes so yeah I'm not finding myself wanting to get in on a quarterback that I do think probably has legitimate injury concerns because even though it seems obvious that he should protect himself better I mean him and Kim Skatibu are apparently best buds and they like headbutt on the sideline so I don't know how he's gonna stop himself from concussions when he's giving him to himself before he even gets on the field and again I do think he's a good passer but I don't think the situation's like great for for huge upside there so I wind up thinking he's not really worth the risk this year and the profile is not that elite it's not that great of an offense are gonna be slow and there are a lot of other quarterbacks that I do really like but I don't dislike Jackson dark the quarterback for sure yeah and he was QB seven and his 12 starts last year at 20 and a half points per game but again so much of that came from the rushing department and I think he I think he kind of you know exceeded expectations in terms of the of the rushing touchdown production there again he had nine and in those 12 games last year we were projecting them for five and a half gratches at like five for you know full season so I think I think it's very to expect that to get to outback up it there for Jackson Darden where we've been mostly in line you know we and with ADP we haven't met QB 12 he's going as the QB 13 right now so I think certainly fine but in best of all it is kind of hard to find some stacking partners to get super excited about but before we hit the wide receiver room here let's go to the running back rooms camp scataboo we have 494 carriers gratches at 214 we're at 45 and a half targets gratch is at 49 there and Tyron Tracy we're at 133 rush attempts gratch at 111 we're at 31 targets on Tracy gratch is at 36 there so we're 20 carries behind on scataboo and 22 carries ahead on Tyron Tracy like when I was prepping for this and just throughout the offseason it's like man if scataboo didn't have such a major injury you know suffered a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula and weak eight I would be very very willing to to kind of glam on more volume to him and maybe that's the wrong way to approach this is to to be too concerned about his injury all reports are that his the recovery has gone great you know you've seen him in public appearances like doing black back flips and and while he may not be not landing them like what do we do he may not be the smartest coconut in the bunch but you know certainly he's he's he's gonna get the ball I think and he quickly overtook Tyron Tracy last year as a rookie it was it was like by you know by week three he had he had the commanding RB1 role here and he was really as a receiving back, which I think. has been a little bit underrated. He was at six and a half yards per target. Last season, 27% target for outrun in 1.75 yards per outrun according to our SIS numbers. So very strong output there. And then, you know, we don't expect it to be very efficient. We're both projecting 4.2 yards per carry, but do expect him to have have the goal line role in this running back room. And then he has, you know, the past catching chops as well that he displayed his rookie season. So the high value touches are there. So this is a spot I like kind of want to kind of bump scat of you, but the injury concerns coming off the major injury are there for sure. But Jack, what you read on this giant's backfield? Yeah, the past catching stands out to me as well. You mentioned 1.7 yards per outrun. 27% targets per outrun. That's really, really good for a running back. I think that assuming healthy should have that role once again. The rushing was it was fine. He got the volume and he had a 53% design carry sure better in the four games going into his injury. He outcarried Tracy 35 to 13 in the two games leading up to his injury. Tracy missed the previous two games with an injury, but he was clearly ahead of Tracy before the injury. He only averaged 4.1 yards per carry. Tracy was actually at 4.2 and skataboo was only slightly above average in yards after contact. For some, according to PFF, I think given his playstyle, you would the kind of what we talked about earlier, where these guys who see contact, but don't have the long speed, maybe known perform as well in yards after contact for attempt as we'd expect. But he should have the goal line role. He should have the past catching role. So the high value touches should be there. But coming off the injury, I think there's real concern about that. We've seen guys Tony Pollard comes to mind with with the fibula and intubia stuff kind of struggling in the year after that. He does seem to be at 100% or at least he says he is a fireblock all of them atop to your back. So I think that he's going to get the work. I think that the rushing efficiency is a little bit in question for me. If skataboo goes down, I think we'd see a similar split to what we saw last year. They still have Devon Singletary and it was 141 to 93 Tracy over Singletary post skataboo injury. So it's not like Tracy was a complete workhorse. Tracy did get the targets. So I don't think that Tracy's like massively interesting as a hand cuff. But I do think that there is some I have a little bit of concern about skataboo. And we've been a little bit below 80 p all off season. And is mostly a volume play in the middle of the fourth round for for someone like skataboo. So yeah, Gretchen, what's your what's your read here? That's that's the way I see it. But it is a three down high value touch profile. Or at least last year he was. He was a high value touch stud in an unlimited sample. I don't think you really need rushing yardage efficiency as much as, you know, you need the receiving stuff and you need the touchdowns. And that's what matters so much. He was at 4.1 yards per carry. Like I can get there as long as he's getting enough of the goal line work and the receiving work, which he was into your to Jack's point. And you guys point the receiving efficiency was really strong. I don't know if you've even mentioned, but 8.6 yards after the catch per reception as well. Really strong. But yeah, good yards per out run. Good yards per target target per out. His targets per out were at 22.4% by PFF's numbers. Tracy and Singletary both around 16% clear intent to get him the ball in the passing game as well in my opinion there. So a lot of stuff there in the in the rookie season that, you know, it's a different coaching staff, but was positive. Jack mentioned the rush shares. He had three games over 70% of the running back rushes before getting injured. Tracy later had one game over 7% several over 60%. I had those notes because I was like, I don't know how to split this because once Skataboo was out, Tracy was getting a lot of work and was doing well. But before Skataboo was out, he was dominating Tracy. And so I wound up a little bit higher on Skataboo over Tracy than you guys as you're reading through those rush attempts. I don't think that I have it right or you or whatever. Like I don't know that I'll necessarily change it, but I think yours could totally be way more directionally accurate. It's a tough split because of how Skataboo quickly took over so much of the work and then got hurt right away. And it's, you know, where are we at with his health as well. I do want to know if Skataboo were a bit better than Tracy's breakaway rate was again solid. And that's what drove his yards per carry being better. Skataboo had like better vision. We tested that way. He tested with really good agility and jumps and stuff, but like bad straight line speed. This is a guy who's actually like somewhat athletic at making guys miss in space. But to Jack's point, he's not going to actually like turn it into a huge play. So it becomes the volume plays you guys are talking about. But I do like that he can play three downs and he gets a lot of the receiving stuff and he's a willing blocker and they love him at the goal line. It's a really good fantasy profile when he's healthy. And he was on his way to a huge win like a big hit for a rookie running back last year. A lot of people talk about how the rookie run backs didn't hit last year. This is the one that was going to be the the breakout rookie running back star. If he just stays healthy, it was the role was there with the high value touches in everything. Also want to throw in. They gave Patrick record a nice deal. I think he's going to be involved 3.5 million fully guaranteed for a 32 year old fullback John Harball loves his guys brings in. You know, they're going to do the they bring in obviously I say likely to they're going to do the multi tie ahead stuff. Some they're going to run the ball time as we've been talking about. I think they want like that identity. And so even though Tracy had the better yards per carry as I noted, he's not like necessarily breaking his main tackles or evading tackles scatter boosts sort of this like identity back as a term I've used in the past that like you mentioned even the dark quote where he's like we're going to give the ball to scatter boost a bunch. He's not like we're going to give it to the running backs. He's like I have a running back. I want to give it to that sets the tone. So I do think that's going to you know all that stuff works in scatter boosts favor is kind of hard not to it for as much as we joke about him not being the whatever you said the brightest coconut in the bunch. He is the one that will bring him his head into people and they like that. I mean football teams like that it energizes people gets the people fired up. No, no doubt. I think I want to move some base based work off Tracy to scatter. You know the further we talk through this. And now that was my inkling coming into this show as well. And you know we've been a little bit above market on Tracy and behind on on scatter and and jacks point on like not necessarily loving Tracy as as the super high upside handcuffs play it was a different coaching staff last year. But in terms of carries inside the five yard line Devon Singletary had nine entire entracing only had one last season. Now that was the spot consistently where they would take Tracy out and put Kevin Singletary in around the goal line. So you know you don't don't love that especially when you're looking for upside as as a handcuff that he might not even have the goal line role if if if Scottiboo were to go down again. So I think it's kind of a thin profile for Tracy to really have much meaningful fantasy upside this year despite you know he's he's been solid in his first two seasons. I don't want to discount that too much he has been a solid NFL running back. So you know he is 175 carries in 35 receptions and his in his first two seasons. That's nothing nothing to sneeze at. But I do think the the base case for first cataboo here is quite a bit stronger. Okay, let's go to the wide receiver room headline by Malik neighbors suffered a torn ACL and meniscus and week four of last season. So we'll be nearly 11 months to week one of the 2026 season. But he did have an off season surgery to clean up that knee and relieve some snips some stiffness. And then again the reporting like back in I think I guess it was like April leading up to the draft. You know all the off season injury reporting is is almost you know a few civly positive on like all these players. And even at that point of the off season people were saying, oh the neighbor stuff hasn't hasn't gone like as smoothly as as we would like it to. And then you have the the surgery followed up. And now kind of the rumblings are he could potentially start on pup might not even be ready. If like to practice day one of training camp. So certainly a lot of concern over that we've we've kind of continued to tick down neighbors throughout the off season have been well below market on him. We've had him as like a fourth round pick the whole time. And he was he was going in the second round to start best ball draft. He has now dip to you know 80 p of 38 on underdog. We're still behind there at at 44th overall. But in terms of inputs on neighbors, we're at 113 targets. Gretches at 128s. On various latent. We're at 48. Gretches at 26. So again, pretty decent gap on that spot on Darnel. Mooney. We're at 38 targets. Gretches at 49. And then on Malachi fields were at 38 targets. Gretch is at 44. So I think those are probably the top four to talk about here. Gretches did mention, you know, they did sign OBJ and and jujus missusar to contracts. But there are no guarantees in those. They also signed Calvin Austin this off season. But he only has four and 50k guaranteed. So I think it's mostly you know neighbors wide receiver one whenever he's healthy then Slate and in Mooney and Malachi fields kind of fighting those three for for the other two, you know, wide receiver two and wide receiver three spots here. So Jack take it away on on this giant wide receiver room on who you liked to hunt first. Yeah. So with neighbors, it's purely just a question of health. There's no questioning the talent 32% target per outrun as a rookie 27% last year in limited playing time obviously. And now he doesn't have to compete for targets with Wondale Robinson. So I think if neighbors was fully healthy be a clear first round pick. The question is just health. Neighbors himself said after the season that he's going to prioritize getting back to 100% over getting onto the field as soon as possible. It doesn't sound like the injury recovery has gone as smoothly as he or the giants have hoped to until the last week or so. All of the reporting about his injury has had almost been like comically negative to the point where we were thinking like I was thinking he would very likely start on pup and maybe more likely to miss week five than play week one. Although Hayden Winks tweeted out right before we started this podcast. So I haven't had a chance to listen to the clip yet that neighbors might be on the latest reporters that neighbors might be on the Andrew Thomas return timeline which would be week three and that he's probably closer to a week one return than starting on Pup. That was very recent within the last few hours so I haven't had a chance to actually listen to the clip yet but I think a lot of the neighbors questions are yet to be answered and we'll kind of figure out exactly where he should go throughout training camp. We have been lower on him all off season because the injury reporting has been so negative and I don't mind that stance although it's one that we're gonna have to change quickly if it seems like he has a real chance to play week one. There's also a difference between when is he gonna get on the field and when is he actually gonna be Malik neighbors again. I know he said that he wants to get back to 100 percent before he actually plays which is good but it sounds like this injury recovery just has not gone very well so I do think that there's probably a difference between the first week he's active in the first week he's back to the like 30 percent target share player where he used to seeing. Beyond him it's definitely not great. Slayton is still on a solid concrete but he only had a 15 percent target per hour. Run last year he was efficient 8.5 guards per target and he did have a 21 percent target share over the Giants last four games and four games over a 20 percent target share. In total he also had a hamstring last year that he got her in week six and re-agitated it a few weeks later. Mooney had a really rough year last year although he also had some I guess injury excuses. He broke his collarbone on the first day of training camp last year but it was just really rough for him. 17 percent target per hour run. 6.2 yards per target. 1.02 yards per hour run. Drake London missed some time and Mooney did not have over a 15.6 percent single game target share in any of the games without Drake London. He had some drop issues as well. He got a one year deal worth up to 10 million but only a $3 million base. So I think that the door is open for Malachi Fields to potentially see some work here whether he can actually do that is another thing altogether. He's on the slower side 4 6 1 40 but he is does have good size at 6 4 2 18. Dame Brewer comped him to Michael Pitman. He had a decent three-tone time despite being slow in the 40 and Brewer also said he's a solid blocker. So we'll kind of see where the Malachi Fields stuff goes. We have slainness the wider see where to here because he did have some solid target share games last year without neighbors and he still is on the contract. He has some familiarity with the team although obviously it's a whole new staff but yeah I'm not super excited about any of the guys with besides a potentially healthy neighbors. I think that we'll get to this in a moment but I think that they're gonna have a lot of tight end involvement here which potentially mutes the wider see where even if neighbors is out. Yeah I think that was a good breakdown of a lot of the guys that don't really matter. I don't want anything to do with Darnal Mooney or any of them. I have Mooney for the second most targets because they brought him in and gave him 3 million the new regime and Slayton was kind of the incumbent although I have Slayton for like it looks like about 0.5 better yards per target just looking at our sheet here because Slayton has been the more efficient player and Jack just talked through some of the issues with Mooney in Atlanta sub one yards brought run in two of the past three years. They brought in like Calvin Austin here in some volume in Pittsburgh but was inefficient. Slayton's a deep my issue with Slayton is like he's a deep threat but without much volume he doesn't earn enough volume. He's and Jack just said this. His yards per out runs bad despite being efficient you know the the yards per target is solid and that's what I was kind of alluded to I have his yards per target projected okay but you think that's a fit for Jackson that skillset too and it might be and you might have some big plays if he gets 50 targets like you guys say but he tends to not earn a really high rate of targets per out you have juju you have OBJ they added five free agent wide receivers I mean it's just the land of misfits here as far as mylokai fields I ended up getting pretty excited about him as I went through the projection he's a tall big receiver great vert slower 40 time as Jack said I didn't see that shuttle note though but that that's exciting too that he was efficient in it was agile in that way Harbock claimed that he's consistently running over 21 miles per hour in games which is like really fast I don't understand how that tracks because he didn't he ran the slower 40 time and like we were talking about like the key to Mitchell stuff like he hit 20 plus miles per hour like seven times like if mylokai fields is actually running 21 miles per hour in games that's a pretty interesting note Jackson bylok over he's like I don't I don't believe John Harbock at all but the production production was reasonable he had a higher a dot he earned good volume for his higher a dot and his yards per targets were solid so he's a guy that I think is like vaguely interesting because of all of the other profiles in this passing game being guys that I don't really want anything to do with yeah just speak on fields the profile as well you know the at ETR we do the offseason prospect pause with Mike renner and and Sylvan love to enter on those and and Sylvan renner both big note or Dame guys were were fields when he was you know predominant extra seaver there but I think both of them were pretty optimistic that his role could could switch a little bit in the NFL to not just be stuck stuck out wide and he does have you know central like big slot capabilities but so that that's something to keep in mind that you know he he does profile is like a primary extra seaver was was close to 90% out wide at at Notre Dame but I do think there is some potential for him to kind of change that profile in the NFL just based on based on what the Notre Dame stands have said nice yeah that's good to hear as far as neighbors though like obviously as Jack said it's all health it's all the number one stuff I will say like back to back to plus yards per hour seasons to start a career is good especially because his yards per target had not necessarily been as good as you would think what the skill set like he does he's one of these guys it does everything he catches the ball short he earns a volume deep and he's a good winner of the ball deep yet a really sweet catch in the in zone from like a Russell Wilson moon ball in that Dallas Cowboys game early last year where like you had a breakout game and then he got hurt right after it which was super fun because I had so much neighbors I think he was going to be an absolute star with Jackson Dart last year obviously the question now is what do we have with the the injury going forward but what I will notice he got there with the two plus yards per hour and seasons and the second one obviously obviously being routes limited he got there in two different ways as a rookie he had a subpar yards per target at an eight out of 9.7 but at a 29.7 percent targets per route it was a lot of short stuff the quarterback play was really bad he actually led the NFL in targets if I'm not mistaken in 2024 as a rookie then last year as eight that was 18.2 it was almost double the 9.7 that's my point he could be a deep threat he can be an underneath guy and ball and hand guy that was mostly because all Russ can do is throw deep balls which Russ is now admitted because he's gonna be I don't know on a broadcast but some more this year he only had a 22.4 percent targets per out last year way down from the 29.7 as a rookie but as yards per target was almost two yards higher again this is only 134 routes I think it would have rounded out that profile especially if you could have played with dart a little bit that's one of the like bigger frustrations I think last year it's like we only got him with Russell Wilson we didn't even get him with the the young interesting quarterback to see what would happen there the knee injuries is a real concern but again I think is a guy who earns volume at all different depths I just want to Jackie said that Hayden just tweeted something out I was trying to look at it he's tweeted a bunch of stuff what was the note like I just want to know that just repeat it is it is it finally optimistic because I remember like Davis mad at tweeting out the the gate like a little while ago and I was like to discuss rehabbing a knee injury leave him alone like he's he's not yeah he doesn't look great but I think he's potentially fine but we got a positive note yeah the update was that well positive relative to my expectations at least the was that he's close to the Andrew Thomas return timeline last year which was week three and closer to a week one return then starting on pop which would be pretty contrary to my my expectations as of four hours ago which was that he was almost a new lock to start on pop nice yeah that's good to hear I mean I don't really know what to do with him from a projection standpoint what I would just reiterate is I think he's in the absolute upper echelon at wide receiver went healthy or pre injury you never know what like how efficient guys are gonna be when they come back from this type of injury I honest to God thought he was in the tier with like Justin Jefferson and Jamar chase at the time of his injury last year when we saw those deep plays and we we saw the catch and run as a rookie everything that he has in the bag it's a bomber that he got hurt we don't really know what to expect the price is so cheap that it definitely tantalizes me I mean it definitely makes me think like I mean if this guy's healthy somehow he's gonna be a absolute smash at this ADP but at the same time yeah you know he's not healthy right that well yeah and it's gone to the point he's he's now in like the the early part of the fourth round which which I think is as fair to take stabs on them especially and in contest was such backweighted you know production and and like payouts as as in bestball when when everything comes in week 17 like theoretically you know Malik neighbors could be close to 100% there and and really you know posting some monster scores if if the if the target numbers return yeah one other thing I want to know they definitely have deep threats like one of the things I was talking about with different profiles I would like neighbors eight out to be a little lower like that rookie you're we have like a 30% targets brown they're getting in the ball on his hands a lot that's like what you're more chase has been and Pukin Kua has a lower eight dot not not super low but they're low enough that you're getting a lot of target volume which we want volume you don't want them to be at an 18 eight out like I had that concern with alch Pierce they have a bunch of deep threats don't know mooney is a deep receiver dairy slightens a deep receiver malkai feels had I eight dots the rookie OBJ has had time spend able to get vertical and been used as a vertical receiver. So a lot of the guys behind neighbors, I mean, there's a lot of targets available somewhere in this offense, but it could create an opportunity for neighbors. If he's not, if he's more of an underneath receiver, it might actually, I don't know if that's going to be better for his knee or not. I have no idea. I'm not a doctor, but like I, I'm telling myself that's the case because I want to believe. All right. Let's go to the Titan room. Again, they do sign Isaiah likely to a big three year, $40 million dollar contract, $26 million dollars guaranteed there for likely who is 26 years old comes over with 194 career targets, obviously played under John Habral there and Baltimore. So some familiarity with this scheme and coaching staff, Theo Johnson, also returns here. And it was funny. I was looking, you know, Theo Johnson had a decent like cumulative stat line last year, 45 catches, 528 yards and five touchdowns. That would have been the best season of Isaiah likely's career, which I just found interesting. I likely had never posted that many catches yards or he had surpassed those touchdowns once. But, you know, this, this is a pretty valuable Titan role, I think in this offense and will continue to be in, in Jackaloo to like, we have a decent amount of, of targets going to this Titan room as a whole. So I'm likely we're at 65 targets. Gretches at 62, we're at 33 and a half on Theo Johnson Gretch is at 46. So, you know, we're expecting likely to come in and be the clear Titan one, but I don't want to just, you know, fully knock aside Theo Johnson, because I do think there is some, some promise and an upside to his, his profile as well. But Jack, take us through your thoughts on, on the site and room. Yeah, let's start by saying that we're actually low versus market on Isaiah likely. And we come in higher than Gretchen and seeing that I don't really mind our current stance. But the buzz on likely all off season has been really positive. He obviously follows parabots. So there's familiarity there and Harbock clearly wanted him as one of the weapons in this past game. Then Dougan said he's going to be featured in this past game. Harbock said he's certain that likely is going to be putting up the stats that presumably the reporters asking him about likely were asking about. It wasn't a great season for likely last year. 16% target per out rundown from 22% in 2024. And in the one stretch we've seen of likely without Andrews, he only had a 15% average single game target share without Andrews in 2023. That's those are fine target numbers, but it's nothing crazy. And you mentioned Theo Johnson, his targets for around from 13% in 2024 to 18% last year. He led the giant without neighbors, excluding Wandel Robinson with a 16% target during 20% targets per hour. And those are both pretty good numbers. And he was respectively efficient given the state of the offense as well. We're projecting likely well ahead, just given the familiarity with Harbock, the decision to sign into a pretty sizable contract immediately after getting hired. So we're expecting likely as the clear tight end one. But like I said, we're still below, where eight spots below is underdog, ADP, which I feel pretty good about after seeing Gretches projection. Yeah, I think likely is good and deserves a bigger outsterold than he's ever gotten in Baltimore. I guess I don't buy that it's going to happen under the coach that I always used him that way. Like in a limited way, like the fact that Harbock brought him over, people saw this a really big positive. I was like, yeah, I mean Harbock wants to bring some of his guys over the dough system that know his culture and all of these things. But he's part of the limitation that's always been there for Isaiah. Like Lee, why is this the guy that you think is going to unlock something? Whatever they think he can't do, Harbock might be part of the reason they think they can't do that. Right. And then as far as Theo Johnson, you were talking about like he was actually really good last year. I got the impression that Jackson Darden, him had like a pretty good connection as a rookie Theo Johnson, 11.7% targets per out run. I was out on him last year, probably on the show and in my research last year. He jumped that from 11.7 to 16.9% in year two. That's not great. It's way more in the realm of playable at tight end. Still only on 1.24 yards per out run. But you're seeing this like a sentient and it's growing. And we do know the teams want to run multi tight end stuff. They also have Chris Manherts as that, you know, blocking tight end at number three guy. I think likely it's really good. Again, I think it's a great receiver. He had a really good prospect profile in that regard too. Great catch rates every year. Great depth adjusted racer that efficiency stat I like to use in my projections. But I don't know why Johnson would just go away. And I do think they're going to be running back targets here. There are a lot of running, you know, wide receivers running around. I have the tight end share rising, but not massively. Maybe like as I'm listening to it, like maybe I should push the tight end share higher. I've had a really hard time with likely this price the whole season too. As I heard Jack talk through that. It's like, that's the way I've been on it. I don't really know why this idea that he's like ready to take off and have this new role in everything is so clear. There is even a quote on the offseason where they're asking Harbaugh about likely and he's saying all the positive things. And he says, and don't forget Theo Johnson. We like both these guys a lot. And it's like, yeah, you have the familiarity with likely Theo Johnson's the guy that's on the new roster you took over. But obviously when Harbaugh took over this team, he did his research on the players and he seems to think Theo Johnson's a good player as well. So I just I don't get it. I have Theo Johnson well ahead of you guys in targets. I know the market's completely out on him. I think he like if you're in a super deep tight and premium league or something is probably going to have a real role. There's targets to go around as we talked about. But he would be vaguely interesting because he was efficient and seemed to have a little bit of a connection with Dart who ultimately, you know, it's going to be the one pulling the trigger on these throws. But yeah, I have likely for 62 targets Theo for 46. Maybe that's not a big enough gap. But I just I don't see where likely is like a hundred target guy because that would mean Theo's basically doing nothing and it just doesn't make a lot of sense. I do think it's fair to expect both both to play a reasonable amount. You know, kind of mentioned that at the team macro level. I think this this team will probably be in more 12 personnel than 11 personnel honestly by by the end of the season. You mentioned Patrick card, you know, assigned to a deal like they're going to run some some 21, you know, in 22 personnel here, I think as well. And so I was a little bit surprised honestly by like likely as profile looking back. I kind of thought, oh man, it's just a route limitation. And like he's been really strong per route. But like that honestly wasn't necessarily the case over the last three years like he is his 2024 was was is generally good at 22% target per hour on and 1.95 yards per hour on according to our SIS data, but much lower at 16% 15% target per hour on and in the surrounding years. And so, you know, I I agree with with you guys came out a little bit more skeptical of of the likely upside in this offense is he just topped out at 309 routes in his career. Meanwhile, Theo Johnson ran 405 last year according to our SIS data. So, you know, it's it's I think an ultimate glum, Zanta man. Can he really consolidate the routes? And it sounds like none of us are super confident that that will happen for as a likely. Yeah, the big part of it too is like we're talking about how efficient he is. And if we're wrong, it's it must be it would my guess would be it's because they just think likely is way better tied end and he is way more efficient and all that. But with that extreme efficiency that he's had it sort of emphasizes that some of the production has been almost maxed out in these limited routes rules. Like we've seen a fantasy viable role in Baltimore but like we know that Lamar Jackson at times has had really strong per attempt efficiency. And so, like likely spiked the TD rates and some of these things that aren't likely to happen in this offense. Either he really does need to add the routes to your point. The targets per route have bounced around and sometimes been low. They haven't been great. It's all about for him. It's all about the yards per target. It's all about the depth adjusted racer. I was talking about the ball and hand stuff is good. He is good. And the catch rates I said anything after the target. He's good as a as a playmaker. But you're in a tough offense. You're not going to have the Lamar Jackson past TD rate. You know, you really do need to add a ton of routes to justify this cost. And I don't know. It's not the way that we see it either of us. All right. That will wrap up the final episode of this divisional projections series. We tease maybe going three hours at the top of the show and share enough. We we surpass that mark. So shout out to anyone still listening with us here on on. Yeah, we surpass 20 hours of content. Three hours on this episode. But wouldn't want to close it out any other way. I mean, I figured I needed to go really long. I mean, what are you guys going to do? Fire me? I don't even work for ETR. Like this is a blast to do this with you guys. This is what you get to. We've we've had some like night recordings and and that you know, this is a morning recording for us. I know me and me and Gretcher are nice and caffeinated. So I think you know, a little a little bit longer, longer, winded here today. But sincerely appreciate again, just all everyone tuned in with us in the feedwack we've gotten on the show has been has been really awesome. So once again, just super grateful to to be in the spot and enroll for this series. So shout out to all the listeners. You guys you guys make a valuable for us and you know, are there are the reason why we do this? So appreciate all you guys tune in with us. If if you want to follow Jack and Gretcher on Twitter, they're at Jack Miller 0 2 and at yards per Gretcher. I'm on their at mark tank. But once again, huge, huge thank you to tune in with us throughout this series. And for all the great feedback. But now we'll do it for this ET 2026 projection series. Have a great day everyone and peace out.