ETE Projections Special Part 7: AFC East with Ben Gretch

[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to another episode of the established Cedge podcast. I'm your host, Mark Dengbring and we'll be joined today by the projections crew you know and love, Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. Jack and I are part of the NFL projections team here at established a run entering our fourth year together doing this full time. Meanwhile, Gretch is our honor guest throughout this series. You can listen to his podcast, Selen Bananas, Wishan Siegel, as well as find his work at BenGretch.substac.com. Gretch also just announced today this week that he is launching a new podcast with Jacob Sanderson called The Long View. Episode one there is up on YouTube already and can be listened to wherever you find your podcast now. But today we'll continue to go division by division through the NFL breaking down our season long projections for each team across the league. We are into episode seven of this series and we'll feature the NFC East today where we have two strong teams and well to to not so strong teams I would say. But Gretch fresh off of family vacation. How you feeling today? I'm feeling good. I'm feeling good as you guys know I had a drive back this morning about an eight hour drive. Cruised you know it was a good stress-free drive. We weren't actually going to record tonight but I was like, hey you guys mind if we do it tonight I got some stuff later this week. Trying to you know I complained about a sickness last week we called it the flu game now I'm going to complain about driving fatigue anything I can do to downgrade my own performance or or set expectations low you know. Expectations are lowered no doubt Jack first episode and a new apartment as a feel how's it going? It's going well. Gretch had an eight hour drive this is my first episode recording without a commute because I moved into my new apartment three weeks ago and I finally have Wi-Fi as of Saturday so nice to be able to you know get up off the couch and walk ten steps over to the desk to record this at 8 pm and night instead of having to take an hour to win train ride. But excited to talk about the bills and the pets not so much the other two teams but we're going to do it anyway. No doubt I was good to get settled feel settled in after a move so congrats on that eager to get into today's episode. We are going to start with with a couple of the more intriguing teams and right off the bat let's go to the Buffalo bills. Sean McDermott out his head coach here we have former offensive coordinator Joe Brady now upgraded and promoted to head coach here for the bills he enters his I guess you know almost fourth season with with Josh Allen he kind of took over two and a half seasons ago so this will be his his third full season but overall you know fourth year alongside Josh Allen here the bills bring in DJ Moore on a on a deal and then you know don't lose too much in the wider seabird core mostly just just adding DJ Moore though so interesting team to talk through here with a couple you know key moving pieces with a head coach and play caller and then new theoretical wider seabird one here on a team level at ETR we're at 62.7 plays Gretches at 63.3 for pass rate we're at 57.2% Gretches at 55 and a half percent so 62.7 plays for us is the second most in the NFL but meanwhile our pass rate at 57.2% is 28th in the NFL so typically you don't see that big of a gap in terms of you know projected plays per game and then pass rate I feel like typically it's more aligned with you know higher pass rate teams tend to get off more place so jack i'm curious your thoughts on on that here for the bills on on a team level and if there could maybe be some downside here in the place we're game with with Joe Brady taking over as head coach and play caller yeah we did see a jump in place per game from 2024 to 2025 but i think that with how good this offenses and how much they can control games with the run game it it makes sense to expect above average play volume we have a dock from our alego pass rate our alego pass rate is at 58% we're projecting 57.2% right now Gretches even lower at 55.5% and i don't really mind where he is given that the bills have been at 55.9% and 56.1% pass rates in the last two seasons with Joe Brady calling the shots not expecting a huge change and how this offense operates with Brady getting the call up to the big job so i think that maybe that's a spot where we could potentially go even lower i think part of what our alego is baking in is that it's it's difficult to have that low over run rate for an extended period of time so it's kind of just natural regression but i certainly think that they want to run the ball because it's been so effective for them as much as that isn't as much fun for some of the pass catching options here yeah and i'm kind of going the other way with it when i see your guys is pass rate wondering if i went too low i always do it off of that expected pass rate off their Vegas win total which is high and so i have them at about negative 3% which is what their PROE was the last couple years their actual pass rate came in i think a bit uh a bit higher as you were as you were given the pass rates there came in well i think i have the regular season pass rates because i think mine are a little lower and maybe they're a little more pass heavy in the post season which would be natural right a little more competitive um they do have a tendency in the regular season to like play to their opponent they've talked about jock like running josh allen more in games where they felt like they needed him one of the things they were they the league slows pace and seconds personat by my numbers but they were better in neutral situations rank wise it's it's so it really leans that way in the situations where they're winning right then they slow way down and they go run heavy like it's kind of funny you're talking about there's two fun teams to division two bad ones this is a team is going to score a bunch of points and they're super fun but i'm glad i'm not doing the show with leonie because i kind of want to just bash on this is one of the least fun like good offence is in the entire in the entire league absolutely and um you know thorman had a note in his pace column that he had the bills ranked 28th and neutral pace last year so again towards towards the bottom of the league so when i was kind of looking at our place for game i was like oh man maybe that is a little bit fragile just just given the run heavy nature of this squad they also lose David Andrews to the sancest this offseason you know they've had a pretty strong offensive line over the last few years lose a key guard there we have not had Brandon thorns offensive line rankings get released but i am curious where where he comes in on on the bills this year with with a little bit of movement because i think last year like they're bringing back all five starters from from 2024 and there's a ton of continuity there so there it little is a little bit of a change but in terms of Josh Allen and you know his his his fantasy value it's been it's been pretty pretty rock solid since 2020 hasn't finished below the qb3 has been either the qb1 or qb2 and and five in the last six seasons in fantasy and and it a lot of it comes down to his rushing profile there graches as you alluded to and that's that's even been exacerbated over the last few seasons here over the last three years he's had 41 rushing touchdowns on the ground and has been used around the goal line a ton last year at 13 rush attempts inside the five yard line he scored nine touchdowns on on those 13 rush attempts so is is really weaponized around the goal line that that you know you could you could say it takes away from from James Koch a little bit but James Koch had had about an equal you know rush attempt number inside the five yard line last year but the past volume has really dipped for Josh Allen over the past couple of seasons he's average just 475 past attempts over the last two seasons and the four years prior is up closer to like 590 so it's it's dipped quite a bit just in in raw volume and that's kind of what we you know attributed to Joe Brady a little bit once he's so over the reins is as offensive coordinator they won a little bit run heavier so you know I'm curious Jack your thoughts on on Josh Allen here if if you know he is going very well ahead of kind of the rest of of the quarterback especially in the best fall market he's going in like round three whereas you know QB2 Lamar Jackson isn't going till round five so is Josh Allen someone you're willing to pay a premium on going into this upcoming season? he is I did an article a few weeks ago on the rising cost of the QB2s they're up really significantly in cost over the past couple of years I believe it's two or three rounds I don't have the numbers offhand in terms of what the let's say QB15 is going is going drafts compared to where they were going a few years ago in Josh Allen and the top end QBs their ADPs have not changed part of that is because the scoring has gotten a little bit tighter between the true upper assulon of quarterbacks and more mid-tier guys but I don't think that it fully justifies the difference or the the rising cost between the two and Allen's been unbelievably consistent he's average 23 points per game or more in six consecutive seasons we did discuss on the AFC North podcast that maybe he doesn't have like a 28 plus point per game ceiling like the Lamar Jackson does but he has 1512 14 wrestling touchdowns over the past three seasons he had a career high eight yards per attempt last year despite having Khalil Shakira as his wide receiver won this is a spot where his sac rate did jump up this is something we've discussed a couple times on this show his sac rate was up last year and he threw the ball away only 2.6 percent of the time last year that was down from 5 percent in 2024 so kind of the opposite of what we talked about with Caleb Williams where he's throwing the ball away up on two of 8x Allen was actually taking more sex last year and that artificially propped up his yards per attempt but from a fantasy standpoint you know you're gunning he's arguably the best quarterback in the league the rushing volume has has been there and will continue to be there the rushing volume inside the five is just so valuable and he's coming off a career best yards for its empties and with a likely upgraded White receiver core which will get to in a few minutes here. Yeah, I'll just agree with that a little bit, I guess. I'm a little bit concerned about the Josh Allen. If you part of it is I think the for best ball. Obviously the ceiling is really there. But part of it is the schedule as well. In week 16 there at Denver week 17 there at Miami. We're gonna talk about Miami, but that could be one of the games where the bills just slow. Way down and so for the price you have to pay for Allen. Obviously you need those you know week 16 17 kind of spiked games. I'm a little concerned about whether his ADP is just I mean I'm not really disagreeing with anything Jack said because Jack's stats were all on point. He's he's a stud and he should be going among the top QBs just in terms of whether it's worth the price. I think you're paying for the consistency of it all that you were saying Mark in terms of the the QB1 QB2 finishes over the last several years last year. I have the FFPC scoring in front of me 24.3 points per game. He was the QB1. The year prior Lamar was at 28.2 almost four full points per game better. QB scoring was down last year, which is part of why he was better. But we've talked about the late round quarterbacks being a deep group and really interesting. Jack's research into how that QB2 tier has risen very meaningful. I do think an individual drafts you can sometimes find good prices, but you can get boxed out of QBs as well in certain drafts. It's a challenging thing, but especially like in one QB redraft. I think paying up for Josh Allen is a pretty big mistake probably this year from a strategic standpoint. Because I do think you're going to get prices in that QB2 tier that are lower. I think what Jack was saying was pretty specific to best ball. But I do want to give that other side of that where I think Josh Allen from a consistency standpoint has really driven where his ADP is. I don't know that the ceilings is high. One of the notes on him, one of the reasons he was able to differentiate last year, he had the highest rushing yards in the league for a quarterback at 5.79. That was the lowest number for a league leading QB Russia since David Gerard in 2009. That's a stat that's been improving over the years. In 2024, the year prior, both Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels were right around 900 rushing yards. Allen didn't hit 600. So you're talking about 50% more. Both of those guys get hurt in 2024. The fact that you get a little bit of a discount on those guys when they can add so much rushing yardage. No, I agree with you guys on the rushing TDs. And Josh Allen's profile is, I mean, it's really, really good. I'm not trying to deny that. But this offense has gotten a lot slower that has gotten a lot more run-heavy as we talked about. And so if the rushing TDs do, I mean, I think he's going to have plenty. But if they do try to weigh from him a little bit as he gets older, I think that could be a concern. Last couple of years, they had 30 rush TVs and 29 past TVs. They had 32 and 30 the year prior. 30 rushing touchdowns is a ton. Like the fact that they've had those last couple of years is a massive amount. I mean, this would be a James, like a positive James cook point. But Joe Brady loves to run the ball in basically. That has been a massive shift from what they were doing prior to Joe Brady. That it was a lot more pass heavy and Josh Allen's past TD rate has come way down as a result. Maybe he does throw a few more TVs if the rush TVs come down. But if the rush, some of the rush TVs shift away back toward the running backs or sometimes of like wider seaver, you know, end-or-round or whatever different things that they may try to do. I mean, I do think Allen's profile at the price you have to pay, it can get a little bit concerning at his age and those types of things. But I mean, I certainly get the upside-case and all the numbers are really, really strong for him. I will say that my take was mostly from a best ball standpoint. I just pulled up the numbers. The QB24 is up from an ADP of no higher than 170 over the previous five seasons prior to 2024. And this year he's going as the ADP 142.5. So you're basically paying a multi-round premium over the earliest that the QB, the worst QB2 went over the five seasons prior. And I think that in the article, like, it's hard to get into it all at once now. But I think that part of that is that the QB2 tier should be expected to score more fantasy points. And part of it is for some variance-based reasons, some of which have been games played. If you look at kind of the data breaking down, the high-end quarterbacks versus the QB13 to 24 quarterbacks over all of underdog's best ballmania history, you can kind of see over the past couple of years there's been a really unsustainable string of health from the QB2s, which I think is partially what's driving that increased ADP. Even though I don't really think there's any reason to expect that to continue. And so if you compare the increased cost of QB2 to Josh Allen, whose ADP has stayed the same or this applies to Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels as well, any of these high-end quarterbacks, I think that in comparison, they look like a pretty solid investment. In Reader After I do agree it makes less sense for you only need one quarterback and you can kind of wait. I mean, it doesn't really matter if you wait until QB18 because all of the mid-tier QB2s are pretty similar. So Reader After I agree, but in best ball, I think your research is great. I guess I would just probably be more optimistic on the ceiling on Lamar and Daniels, the sort of the way that I would put that. That's because another thing on Allen is going. Yeah, the rushing yardage is certainly superior with those two. The other thing with Allen is under Brady the last two years, his past yards per game, 219.5, 215.8. The four years prior to 50 plus, I mean, that stretches back to like 2020. But even in 2020, he was at 284. Like, yeah, that was a different landscape. But he was at 259, 268, 253, and then the last two years, 219, 215. I mean, you're talking the past ceiling has been meaningfully lower for him, not just on the touchdown side as we hit on. But yeah, no, I think your research is great in terms of especially in best ball and the higher QBVs. I guess I'm just saying relative to like Lamar Jackson going two rounds further behind in a, you know, you've got to go win weeks 15, 16, 17, best ball landscape. I kind of like the ceiling for those guys a little more. Just looking at the rushing TD totals from from last year as well. Josh Allen was third in the NFL with 14 and James Cook was sixth with 12. So two, two players in the top six and in rushing touchdowns. Naturally, you would expect that to regress a little bit and that can kind of go in tandem with James Cook's profile, which we can go to that running back room now in terms of inputs on James Cook. We're at 264. Russian Tim Scratch is at 281. We're at 37 targets. Scratch is at 43 there. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are, you know, RB2 and three here a little bit Ty Johnson a little bit more of a pass down oriented. RB2 and then Ray Davis is probably like the handcuff you would you would want, but his his kind of base work was really cut down last year after a pretty promising rookie season. But I do want to talk through James Cook here because he is elevated up to a, you know, first end of the first early second round pick and in best ball this year and and you know, maybe some concerns it can over over kind of how he how he's been around the goal line and just as a as a volume rush or we did see things really condense on James Cook last year though excluding the week 18 game where you know, cook had a couple carries but Ty Johnson and Ray Davis handled the vast majority James Cook at 80 and a half percent of the running back carries last year in this backfield. So again, really really can solid and I think that was the question that that held people back from drafting him last year. You know, who's going more like the third round and now is up to a one to turn after showing that consolidation so Gretchen curious your thoughts here I feel like James Cook is his receiving profile isn't super strong but again the Russian has consolidated you know in one of the best offenses in the NFL we project the bills for the second most touchdowns in the league this season. So curious if you think James Cook is is worthy of a of and around one selection. He's tricky because like I'm always into the high value touches and there's a lot of people talk about the peak car Michael coming over from you know coaching under Sean Payton and they love the third of the backs and all that I mean James Cook the last few years has run for your routes and his two backups combined for I mean they both play a little bit Ty Johnson plays a little in the past game. I don't love to see like the secondary running backs running more routes combined than your stud number one I mean he got 309 carries last year he's a war course he's an absolute you know monster as a rusher but this idea that his like receiving is going to absolutely spike I was looking at that at your guys's projections right when we came in I was one and five was light and you guys are I mean basically in the same ranges we always are like six targets lower than me where it's like we're basically projecting the same kind of thing right on 40 targets. I'm just about 40 just below it. But you're seeing the same thing I am which is Thai Johnson and Ray Davis are going to probably be involved in the in the targets and running the routes and those things and they use those guys interchangeably in the past game. This is one of the teams that has done some of the air yard stuff and use the running backs deep and James Cook had a few last year but the year prior Thai Johnson and Ray Davis both did and James Cook didn't and so it's kind of gone back back and forth like who's on the field when they want to run like a running back into a vertical route. And then the like targets per out run have been pretty similar in the offense and that like it looks like they just kind of rotate or don't like get the ball to James Cook in the past game with intent the way that some of the other star like a Devon HN will talk about later his targets and be so high although who knows how it'll be in this offense going forward but anyway I am concerned about James Cook's receiving I think the rush TD while like rate while it's been massive the last couple years and it was very low prior it feels like it's due for aggression. I think that's more stable than it seems just because the team rush touchdown trends we're talking about they've been like 30 rushing TD I'm talking about Josh Allen's maybe coming back a little bit but like Maybe that's a big reason why his TDs are there, but I think Josh Allen's Rush TDs are already priced in. Basically, I kind of think Cux may be as well to a degree. I think he's a high floor play. I have a hard time with him again. And the first round, this is an offense to me that feels like the idea that when they get out ahead and they win, they want to slow things down. Like it feels like the pie is not quite big enough with this, you know, playing slow. And especially as we get to the past game, they've been unconcentrated with their targets. These two are the most interesting, Alan and Cux. They're the ones where they can concentrate a lot of touchdowns on the ground. I struggle with Cux price too, man. I really do. - Yeah, and to the note with him splitting past your routes with Ty Johnson last year going into EG 18, Cux had a 37% route rate. Ty Johnson was at 34%. So almost even just even between those two backs before you factor in Ray Davis. Jack, any thoughts on this Buffalo backfield? 'Cause it hasn't been a massive fantasy, you know, producer over the last couple of years. And curious your thoughts as well as we did see Ty Johnson kind of flip Ray Davis a little bit last year for like the favorite for RB2, you know, snaps and touches there is their handcuff that you prefer in this backfield. - Yeah, I think Ray Davis is the handcuff. I think as we saw last year, Ty Johnson is likely in a neutral game script. It has a pretty good chance to out carry Ray Davis in any giving game. But in we gave Team Last Year, we saw Ray Davis out carry Ty Johnson 21, 13 and 2024 in the one game that James Cook missed. Ray Davis had 20 carries for 97 yards and I think three catches on top of that. So I think Ty Johnson, they trust him a lot on pass downs. But I think if James Cook were to go down, it would likely be Davis inheriting the bulk of the rushing. I'm sure Ty Johnson would see an increased role as well. But I think Davis would get the majority of carries. I echo Gretches sentiments on the pass down role. But it is something that keep harping on. It seems like every year they, and even mid season, they always talk about we need to get James Cook more involved in the past game. We always need to get James Cook more involved in the past game. They hire Pete Carmichael. So maybe at some point they will actually do it. But to this point, they haven't here. Just a 7.6% target share last year. That's really not good. Certainly for someone with his receiving abilities. The last thing that I think is probably worth bringing up with Cook. But I'm curious how you guys feel about this. Is that James Cook had 309 carries last year in the regular season. He weighed in at 199 pounds at the NFL Combine and had 230 carries throughout his entire college career in four years. There's a part of me that wonders if there is increased risk of-- I don't know if it's injury or decreased the factiveness given that he doesn't have the history of a workhorse or if last season can pretty much alleviate any and all of those concerns. I have fewer concerns about that when we know that the guy has the workhorse background and the workhorse credentials. We talk about workhorse being a skill. I don't think-- I guess relative to that, then it is more concern. I don't feel confident in Cook. But the fact that he just did it last year is helpful. One of the things about the passing stuff is they love him on the ground so much. And I do think that's kind of how they balance his workload is by using the backups in the past game. It's not what we love for fantasy. I think sometimes we get so obsessed with fantasy, not us on the show, but just the market where it's, oh, we want him to use him in all the ways that are most valuable for fantasy. The bills want to use him in the way that they think he's most valuable, which is an explosive runner. And then they just don't care as much. I mean, they talk about wanting to use him in the past game to Jack's point, but they never really end up doing it. Because that's how they balance his workload, it seems. It's more like 20 years ago when teams used to do that with their workhorse runners, like a Shawnau exander or something, or Adrian Pearson every year. We're going to throw to Adrian Pearson more in the past game. But it's like, you're already running him on first and second down every single time. So maybe on third down, we have to let him have a breather. Like, you got to take him off the field sometimes. I mean, to that point, if they're going to use him a ton more in the passing game, I don't know if-- I would be with Jack. I think it's a great take. I would not want to bet on that sustaining, because it's not something that we've seen a ton of. I think I'm with Jack. I've never really been into Ray Davis, because I do think Ty Johnson plays a good amount. And he's going to split number two duties in those things. I kind of think Davis could be a pretty big handcuff this year because of the team rushing trends. How stable the really high rushing TDs have been and all that. Like, Davis would presumably get all the carries and all the goal line rushes and have a high rushing TD rate if Cook was out. And that's where-- I mean, I think Davis becomes a pretty fun handcuff. He's going pretty cheap too. So yeah, I mean, I think the Cook workload concern-- when I'm taking a first round running back, I want him to have a big receiving role in part, because I don't want him taking 300 carries between the tackles. It's a little bit tricky. Yeah, agree. I've been taking Ray Davis a lot towards the end of drafts, because he is so cheap. And the backfield has not changed at all since last year. And he's going 60, 70 picks later. Then he was last year. And in my mind, again, the roles did flip a little bit towards Ty Johnson, that's the RB2 in base. But I do think Ray Davis is the higher upside handcuff that you'd want there. Let's go to the wider receiver room there, again, headlined by DJ Moore, who's an offseason acquisition was traded with a fifth round pick to the bills for an exchange for their 60th overall pick in this previous draft. And then DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, and after that, it's a pretty muddled wider receiver room. So let's talk through those top two guys here first on DJ Moore. We're at 96 targets, Gretches at 112. On Khalil Shakir, we're at 81 targets, Gretches at 102. So again, typically Gretcher runs hotter than us. But I would say this gap is probably on the upper end of some that we've seen at for the wider receiver room. And coming, I feel like I've been a bit of a DJ Moore apologist and have seen him a little bit more favorably than Jack. So I was interested to see where Gretches came along in here. But then as I was prepping for the show and diving in even deeper, I'm like, man, yeah, there might not be a whole lot of past volume in this offense. And I'm curious, Gretcher, thoughts first just on, what you think like the route share is sealing for DJ Moore is last year, Khalil Shakir led the team with like a 71% route share. And obviously, our wider receiver wants to be up a bit higher than that into the 80% and 90%, which is where DJ Moore was last year. He's still held in 80% route share. Do you think that given acquisition and what they're paying more do you think he is going to be kind of like the bona fide wider receiver one and get that 80% route share that we'd like to see here? I do have a lot of optimism about that part of the more discussion, the fact that they traded a two forum, the fact that the conversation at the end of last season was about the lack of wider receivers and getting Josh Hound. One of the things that after they traded for him, they guaranteed some 2028 money like three years down the road that they reportedly like didn't need to do. It was like, it wasn't really an extension. They're basically just like, we want you to know that we think you're going to be good through your age 31 season so that I don't know you'll try harder. It was kind of a weird like team building move to just like guarantee him a third season. But I think they're from a fantasy football perspective, I think it signals real intent and signals a commitment to the player over multiple seasons. They really want to make that work. I think he's going to play a lot. When I wrote up this team, I do like little signal and noise in my little off season, see those signals thing. I said as yards per out run, the past two seasons were noise, 1.44, 1.22, had the weird season and Caleb's rookie year, was Shane Waldron and all that. Last year, he's kind of deprioritized as some of the rookies and other guys are. And obviously the Bears decided to move on and trade him. I don't think those things are going to carry over the low yards per out run, especially because they were driven by cratering targets per out run. The target earning, he was at 14.3% last year. I think his target spread run is going to be high in Buffalo. Like they're going to feature him. They're going to make him the number one. I think all that's going to work. I am a little bit concerned about whether we're going to get peak more. And then whether it's still going to be unconcentrated to some degree. It's interesting how much more concentrated I am than you guys. I guess I mean, I didn't really know how to land it. Obviously, I do kind of project from a more optimistic standpoint for the offense. I think the best case for these guys is DJ Moore and Cleo Schoer's top two guys and then Dalton, Kincaid kind of working in. But I do think the secondary players are important. They've talked about Keon Coleman a ton. I think Josh, I mean, you guys are higher than me on Josh Palm right now. I mean, I only have 31 targets for him. But I do think he's like relevant. And I thought I was maybe on a limb on that. But he had a high ankle sprain in week six last year. He was averaging like 39 yards per game. It's not great. But that's like he didn't really ever recover from that. And that's like a, you know, a potential role that will work in. Skyler Bell had 101 catches at Yukon last year as a 9.8 race, elite metrics and all the athletic categories. Like he looks really interesting if he wasn't stuck in a, you know, rotational offense. You guys have a lot more targets for him. I'm kind of liking what you guys have on some of those spots. I don't, I'm not really into Keon Coleman. There's like, like I said, a lot of talk about how they're going to make him work. He was the big one, obviously, when they fired McDermott. And you have the whole thing. Pagula sitting up there. And it was it was McDermott who liked him and not Brady beat. I don't know. It was the pointing fingers about Keon Coleman and making him the whole discussion point. And then Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, winds up being like, yeah, I was really into him. And then he gets the job. Regardless, Shakira also last year had a high ankle thing in the preseason. And he ultimately got an ankle procedure this off season. I think he kind of played through it all year. That's part of why I probably am a little higher than you guys on him. I do really like the Shakira profile for what he is. He's been really good in that high volume catch and run role. We probably need more air yards from to be super fantasy viable. I like I'd A dot and everything I have is a dot very low. I don't have them as super efficient. I do think some of the ball and hand stuff Should be better this year than last year where he was kind of playing hurt all year with the leg injury It's not a great injury for that type of a player and that's stuff that DJ Moore does well too So I think Shakira's kind of an issue for more. I have Shakira only 10 targets behind more I have him well ahead of you guys you guys have a gap of about 15 targets between the two I'm ahead of you on both of them as I was talking about I have it even more concentrated than you guys even though in my notes. I have it like this is the most unconcentrated offense ever So I kind of I kind of like your guys this splits a little bit better there But I do think Shakira is meaningful and I came into this this projection really wanting to be high on DJ Moore He's a guy who's talent. I've always been really high on I've really liked I felt like I'd have an opportunity to get back on him after I've seen traded a lot for him and it's probably set to make him the number one. I do think it's a tricky Offense for that and how that they how they do everything and the different packages and all that It is tricky and like you said the you know I with about DJ Moore and just like kind of betting on the talent and the investment I I wanted to be there as well and and that's a spot where we maybe could get more condensed but Jack I do want to toss it to you with with your thoughts there because yeah We saw DJ Moore and in 2023 at a 25% target per hour on that dip to 22% in 2024 and and last year down to 17% That that includes the playoffs as well for that 17% number there for for DJ Moore But I'm I am a little like I see I see the downside here as well just with a limited pass volume Offense so curious your thoughts on the top here on DJ Moore and Clio Shakira since we are a little bit lighter there than Grinch Yeah, yeah, it sounds like Grinch Has a little bit I was a little bit more concerned on the target earning last year I thought I just kind of thought it was bad that he didn't have a single game higher than a 20.6% target share last year When Rome went down last year at a 9% 18% and then that 20.6% target share last year and that's with burden never exceeding a 66% route rate they're playing guys like a lot of days at Kies and today Walker for significant snaps over burden and still DJ Moore Wasn't really earning fantasy relevant volume. I know they gave up a lot for him But I view that that down tick and target earning is a pretty significant negative He was at 8.7 years for target over his first four seasons 8.1 over his last four 8.1 is nothing bad But it is decreased efficiency and it's not like he had awesome quarterback play to start his career in Carolina either But it was largely just the decreased target earning and yours per hour numbers that had me a little bit concerned on More Despite the bills giving up a lot for him and seemingly liking him along with a little bit of the lack of concentration in this offense that you guys mentioned but More I just had some concerns about more heading into his age 29 season after the year he just had in Chicago I'm probably overstating the kind of narrative-based stuff that the bills are gonna really want to get a lot out of him because I I think you made some great points there Especially if you go look back at the efficiency in his career the evasion stuff was a lot better though Like you mentioned the first four years versus the next four years first four years This dude was a ball in hand demon evasion rates were really good. Yeah, I've seen a good you would get some rushing work And he was really good at that as well as yards per carry where I was super high. It's been lower over Across the board is he's still gotten some rushing work as yards per carry have been worse each of the last four years than any of the first four years It's very small sample But the evasion stuff has gotten a lot worse last year was his worst mistakels force per touch of his career And quite a bit down from for most of the other years I guess I'm kind of taking that as a little bit of like effort and fit in the offense and that maybe you'll be a little bit Rejuvenated he is only 29. I think Jack makes great points there too. I just wanted to know No doubt and it I think it is fair to question his Motivation slash just like commitment and excitement to play for the Bears last year There's several several like moments and in key games where he's like walking off the field mid-play You know kind of quits on on some blocking down field certain things where it was just hard to tell if DJ Moore was was all Internet and I think I think his relationship with the Bears just just sourd a little bit kind of on that note and with the Assendance of some younger talent around him as well Clio Shakira. I think is Is an interesting one just because if we do expect DJ Moore to be you know like the clear wide receiver one and routes You know Clio Shakira is is a 70 over a 70% slot player in his career and then you have you know DJ Moore primary and outside Josh Palmer and Ken Coleman projected to play Premier League outside as well and the bills are kind of like middle of the pack and in terms of 11 personnel usage I'm a little bit worried if DJ Moore does come in and demand more targets that like Shakira's target Proud Run will dip quite a bit if you go back to 2023 he only had a 16% target Proud Run playing next to Steph digs You know and and Steph digs and that was though still I would call it his his prime You know is probably a better target owner than then DJ Moore But I do think there is is some concern there again just given his super low eight-hot role and the routes not necessarily being As strong as honestly I thought I thought Shakira would be would be higher than like 70% routes Rouse last year, but it's it's not not amazing for him. I don't think that point about inside outside One of the things about more that just reminded me like Brady when he was talking about because Brady famously coached him back in And Carolina for a year he's talking about like I know what DJ Moore is I know he can play outside he can get vertical on all this stuff and I was like I mean he One of my favorite parts about DJ Moore when I was like I was a really big DJ Moore guy younger in his career Was that he could do everything I like the receivers that can win short deep that a great ball in hand But you get you efficiency a ton of different ways he can do all of that But it's not really what like the ball in hand and a lot of that stuff is more the DJ Moore You know thesis I don't think of them as like a deep like threat and if that's the fact that they're like Emphasizing that he's this outside receiver they can get vertical at age 29 is not really why I think you would pay to acquire The fit that was anyway, I did this projection a while ago, so I'm like a little rusty on my notes But as you said that as well and what Jack was saying I was just like yeah I mean that was another note I remember seeing that I was a little Concerned about where it was like I mean they're excited to have him But they're they're trying to get certain stuff out of him that maybe isn't the right stuff at this stage of his career Yeah, and I don't think the secondary wider receivers are super fantasy relevant here But they want to mention on Keon Coleman that that the Joe Brady quotes on him have have been pretty pretty interesting He is first quote from January 30th like right after he was promoted to head coach He said I told Keon Coleman that the best thing that's ever gonna happen to Keon Coleman is that I got named head coach The same guy that stood on the table and wanted Keon Coleman is the same guy that's gonna be doing Everything he can to continue to get Keon Coleman to reach the level that we know he can So I don't know I thought I thought that was a little interesting and just a vote of vote of confidence because it does seem like the McDermott Keon Coleman thing and you mentioned that pressure last year Grash like it the vibes were just off between those two and maybe Joe Brady will Will kind of lean lean into Keon Coleman a little bit, but again I don't think there's a whole lot of a fantasy relevance there on on a lower volume, you know Pass passing team where where he's gonna be like the wider see where three at best, I think Yeah, I mean that's the the big argument I think for more is that If you want to look at it from like the long view perspective like he is this dude that Has been better throughout his career than then I mean Josh Palmer Keon Coleman some of these other names like who's who's the ceiling talent here Like like what they actually are in their NFL career Clio Shakir maybe but like like we're talking about very very specific role If it's not DJ more hitting It's gonna be a not very fun passing game again probably absolutely. Yeah, there's one more name to talk through and that's Dalton Concade and in the tight end room in terms of projections there. We're at 71 targets Gratges at 78 We're at 8.1 yards per target and Gratges at 8.4 I bring that up only because Dalton Concade's efficiency metrics last year. We're just out of control He was at 11.4 yards per target that includes the playoffs He was up above a 3.0 yards per out run But he only had a 45% route share last year So it was really limited in terms of one he was on the field But hyper efficient when he was out there. That was a dip. Those 45% routes was a dip from 2024 We as at 59% and as rookie season he was at 69% So you know two of the last three years he's been sub 60% routes Which is just not great as a reliable fantasy asset there jacks on I'm curious if if you're a belief You know believer in and Dalton concade and and kind of if you think he's a worthwhile bet in fantasy on just hoping that like the health improves and he can stay out there and and and run more routes Because on a per route basis he's he's been pretty strong and is you know a young form of first round draft pick So curious your thoughts on Unconcade and this upcoming season Yeah, it's purely just a routes question He had a torn pcl all of last year Dawson nox said and that was later confirmed to be true And there's already been some some illusion To having to manage concade a little bit Roto world reported that both Joe Brady and Brandon being um so that they'll have to manage concade's practice time in 2026 Brady said after the season that there's a lot of things he's pushing through that you guys might not see He didn't get surgery for the torn pcl that he was playing with all of last year So I think that there is like a real route ceiling here I don't think that he's going to ever be like the 80% route guy and I think that that kind of limits his fantasy upside On a per route basis very good player In a very good offense. So I think he's I think he's fine And I think that the market is aware of both his per route dominance last year as well as the route limitations um But yeah, the ceiling from a playing time perspective I think Remains and in pretty big question with the injury stuff ongoing As efficient as he was if you look at like ppr points per game he was tight in 15 last year I think in the list that I'm looking at the yards pro run was and the last couple years, but massive for a tight end up around 25% and then his yards per target really spike last year and it really shoots his yards per out run. I mean, that's the PFF routes, right? So a little bit different scale as we always talk about. Despite a yards per out run of nearly three, he went over 50 actual receiving yards three times in the regular season. Like it doesn't matter how big your yards per out run is if you're not running routes to Jack's point. I mean, if you read through the coach speak index, breakdown, all off season, it's what Jack said. But you know, his knee was flaring up. They had to limit him because of it. Then he didn't get surgery. Their plan is to rehab and strengthen the knee and then also be able to plan more off of that. And I just I'm out on that plan probably, right? And first of all, when you have that efficient of a season on a limited route share, you want the out of more volume if the efficiency regresses. I don't always want to regress out efficiency, but that is such elite yards per out run like per route efficiency that you probably do have to understand that the only way down, you know, the only direction to go is down from that. And so you want the ability to add routes. I'm concerned about that extrapolating already, even if you do add routes. But then we have this flipside issue of like, how does this strong per out profile expand? It's not he's not going to add routes. It just just genuinely doesn't seem like it's even possible from a from a health perspective. And so and especially because like he's, he didn't get the surgery. He didn't you know, didn't do these things. He's just trying to rehab it and strengthen and and I don't know, maybe I'm maybe I'm missing the boat there, but I have a hard time with the guy that's going that, you know, where he's going as efficient as he was last year. It's based off of that, but he can't really grow the role. And so it's just I mean, I'm not trying to like, sorry Leonie, if you're listening to this, I'm not trying to be out on every single bill's player, but like I have a hard time with the prices of their good players. For sure. And I do think it's hard to see kind of like the path to super elevated routes here because they did sign Dawson Knox to a three year, $20 million extension. They have Jackson Haws who like, you know, if you listen to some other real more real life football focus pods. I'll talk about how a lead of a blocker Jackson Haws is and he kind of like started like this. You know, it was one of the impetus players for like the, the, you know, getting getting a blocking tie then to really elevates your your run game and just kind of like what you can do and have your personnel. He's not going anywhere and then Dawson can Kate has played over 75% of his past apps are in the slaughter out wide in his career. So it's just kind of hard. You know, he's he's not your traditional inline tied end that that's going to be out on the field. It's on and and so I do think it's hard hard to see the paths to more than like 60 65% of routes being the ceiling there for concateness. All right, let's move along to the New England Patriots quite a bit of continuity here on on the coaching staff that they do bring in two big wider receivers, one of those being AJ Brown, obviously with the with the big tray this off season, then they signed Romeo Dobbs to a four year deal as well 68 million dollar contract for Dobbs 39 million guaranteed there. Steph digs out of the picture here. Josh McDaniel's returns as the play caller for the Patriots on a team level. We're at 61.3 plays for the past scratches at 62.2 right of 59.1% pass rate scratches at an even 60% there. So relatively similar not as close as we've been on some other teams there, but Jack the the Patriots were I would say kind of like the breakout offense of of 2025 and and the prices have come up quite a bit on on them this off season. They do get AJ Brown here, but here's your thoughts on on a team level here for the paths. And they I should mention too. They had like a very historically easy schedule last year, which will get much tougher this year and probably change up how how the offense plays a little bit. Yeah, we're just that our LGO on both plays and pass rate. They were fourth in football last year with a plus 1.9% pass rate over expectation that includes the playoffs, which means it includes the snow game in the AFC championship game. So if you throw that out, the pass rate over expectation would be even higher because that was a really high run rate game. They were slow last year at 29.3 seconds per play. Thormin kind of alluded to in his pace preview that in them with them facing a more competitive schedule that the pace could come up a little bit. So that could be a spot that maybe we could look at with Gretchen being higher on the play volume than us. Josh McDaniel is in the past to set some some faster offenses from a play volume standpoint. And it stands to reason that if they're more competitive games, they're draining the clock less. They could run more plays. Thormin also noted that there have been reports of them practicing no huddle more. Thormin being the Patriots fan has some years on the ground there. So that's maybe even particularly valuable. But yeah, I mean, I expect them to prefer it to pass again this year, given how good May was last year and maybe a little bit of room for the play volume to increase. But yeah, I think that this offense is clearly ascending under May and make sense to expect good output again. Yeah, I like all those notes. I was having a hard time with the pace in the in the past right and kind of just middle bit a little bit on both like reading Thormin stuff for his like I could be optimistic wasn't sure. I mean, I agree. I think he's usually really pretty dialed into the the paths as well. Like some people are fans of teams and then they're like a little bit of homers, but Thormin Thormin, I was nails the paths. So I was maybe running a little hot on play volume, but I was taking some of his notes as some decent optimism there. They had a positive pass rate of expected last year against a low expected pass rate. They did add some run pieces. They also added AJ Brown. Obviously, they still have an above average schedule as well. It's like they had a really easy one last year, but it's 12th best again this year. One of the things I think is really interesting with this team like from a top down perspective is it's kind of similar to what we're talking about with the bills. They used a lot of different guys last year. The targets rotated throughout the year, but they were like pretty balanced by the end. If you look at the so they have the really easy regular season schedule, then they had four really hard postseason games. So that's you know, as we get into Mays can be really interesting to talk about because like his EPA per play best in the league during the regular season, then you go look at the postseason. He's substantially in the negative. He's 11th of 14 main starting QBs in EPA per play and he won three games like a lot of these QBs just went O and one in their post seasons. How did he how did he finish 11th out of 14 in EPA per play going three and one in the postseason. It's crazy against these harder defenses. But in that postseason run six Patriots between 10 and 20 targets. No one over 20 very balanced across the four games. Their team leader digs was at 20 his targets per out. A lot of people have made a big deal about digs as per out profile. You go look at what he did in the postseason. One of the stuff got a lot more difficult. He was really pretty poor. Everything came crashing down. That's four games. I mean, that's a quarter of a regular season. A lot of people have talked about their regular season. I don't think they're talking enough about the offense in the postseason. And it was an important sample because it was the toughest defenses they really faced all year. And the offense did really struggle. So I think a similar thing happened. Running back we see different things flip over time. We'll get there. But I was going into this off season thinking they definitely had to address the weapons. They've done that with AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs. I think the offense is going to look a little bit different. And then the other thing was Drake May. I'm talking about how he struggled against a tough defense is. Remember this is a guy who when he was drafted, it was the youngest quarterback in the class. They're talking about they couldn't start him right away because he needed time to develop. He was an age 21 rookie. Last year he's age 22. It's going into his third season right now. Still super young. The coaches are talking this off season, not really like a breaking way. Just sort of I think casually. But again, the coach's begin to quote have been clear about how like the game just makes sense to him. And he's very advanced in the way that he's progressing this off season. It would help understand why he had such good product or explain why he had such good production at young ages in college. It has been so good in his first couple of years in the NFL. I don't want the age thing to get missed on Drake May. There are some concerns specific to 2025 in the easy schedule. But this dude has been way ahead of the curve for his age. The Drake May metrics last year were pretty insane. He had the second highest eight out in the NFL at nine and a half yards. Yet he led the NFL with a 72% completion rate. He he was like three percentage points clear of any other quarterback in completion rate. And and I was just looking at some other quarterbacks with similar eight dots. As him again, Drake May had a nine and a half yard eight out 72% completion rate. Lamar was 9.7 64% completion rate. Trevor Lawrence 9 and a half even with with Drake May 61% completion rate. So 11% percentage points lower. And then Matthew Stafford was also 9 and a half at 65% completion. So I was interested to see where where Gretchen came in here. He's projecting Drake May for a 67.3% completion rate. We're down a bit at 64 and a half percent. So that might be a spot we want to come up again, just given Drake May's what he showcased last year. And again, kind of like the steady, steady drum beat of how he's taken things and stride this upcoming year. You're also at AJ Brown. This offense can't hurt that too much either. In terms of efficiency, we're both we're at 7.8 yards per time. Gretchen is a little bit higher closer to 7.9. But across the board, outside of just like the yardage total that comes from the completion rate elevation. We're pretty much in line there on total touchdowns and then rushing production. One thing I wanted to mention on May that I think is like a you know potential not necessarily like floor bottoming out. But all of his rushing production has come from scramble. They only used him with 13 designed rush attempts all of last season. And he's been you know a 10% scramble rate in his career. He hasn't really been used around the goal line. He only had two carries inside the five yard line last year, zero touchdowns. So that's one where like I'm pretty be interested. to see where they go with Drake May's career. And in this rushing, if they do, use him in the design fashion at all, or if they decide to use him around the goal line, I think that's really where like an overall QB1 ceiling fantasy season could come from. Because he is 6'4" or 225 pounds. Meanwhile, Josh Allen, 6'5", 2'37". So a little bit bigger. But we know Drake May is that athlete and has the size to potentially be used around the goal line. So I am interested just to monitor if they decide to use him and then design run game at all. Because it is a little tougher just to rely on pure scrambling for the rushing output. And his rush attempt for game did rise last year, but his yards per attempt per carry 7.8 is a rookie. And then down to 4.4 last year. As a rookie, I was like, maybe this guy's just a really exceptional runner. There had been like Josh Allen rushing upside comparisons. I think year 2 takes us off of that track personally. And so I was curious where you guys wound up on him. When I was talking about his age, I called his rookie years age 21 year. I just want to correct that. He was age 22. He turns 24 in August. He'll be going into his age 24 season this year in year 3. I got through the projection. And I project pretty optimistically for everyone, obviously. Some of the teams where the offenses have more touchdowns, I wound up with a lot higher ceiling. One of the concerns here is they were second and points last year against that release schedule. They projected pretty middle of the pack this year. So it really hurts Maze TD projection the most. I ended up having to kind of nuke his past TD and his rush TD rates down a little bit as well as the running back rush TD rates down a little bit to hit sort of that market touchdown expectation. Drake made it not come out as high. And even though I'm really optimistic on the player. And I was trying to talk about how I think this offense is really interesting going into the next year and could take another step forward. He didn't come out as high to me. And he said, I have similar concerns with him as I did with Allen in terms of the really high ADPs. Jack, I see not as that how you're feeling as well. Yeah, I was going to say that basically how you felt about Josh Allen is kind of how I feel about Drake May. Obviously the prices are significantly different. I think on underdog Drake May goes like 30 spots later than Josh Allen. So it's a different question entirely. But May had almost nine yards per attempt, 8.9 yards per attempt last year, over 100 carries. Any average 21.5 points per game. That was good enough for QB3 on a per game basis. And that's a very good season, but it's not like this game breaking world changing fantasy season that we've kind of alluded to being the goal when you grab the quarterback early. And until he gets maybe the red zone role that Mark alluded to being a possibility, I am not super optimistic that he's going to reach that level. Like Mark said, he only had two carries inside the five bear line last year. That's really not even close to what he needs to reach an overall QB1 ceiling. Right now he's going ahead of Jaden Daniels on underdog barely. I think that that is probably wrong just because I think that the ceilings on both of them giving given the rushing difference, even if May runs a lot, it is all scrambles. And it's not a lot of runs inside the five-year line. So I think that Daniels has a significantly higher ceiling. And I'd be much more willing to pay for him rather than May. Agreed there. I thought Drake May was one of the easiest clicks on the board last year where he was going this year. I've had a tougher time getting to him. I do love AJ Brown and we'll get to that wider seabird room. But let's go to the running backs here first because this is a split that man. It's been it was talked about going into last season throughout all of last season into the post season and then has followed up again into this off season. It's a really interesting one and really tricky depending on kind of like how you break down the splits between Ramandra Stevenson and Travian Henderson. So it was very curious where we came in projection wise against Gretchen and are actually a little bit different here. We have Ramandra Stevenson projected as the RB1 and carries at 181, Gretches at 162. And then Gretches is ahead on Travian Henderson in terms of his carries to Ramandra. He's at 190, we're at 165. So again, kind of like the inverse here on the Carrier projection, in terms of target projection, we're at 38 on Travian Henderson, Gretches at 42, we're at 36 on Ramandra and Gretches at 37. So more even there, it's more kind of just the base carrier projection that is a bit different. And I mentioned like the different segments of the season last year, pre-Injury for Ramandra, he had 83 carries and Travian had 53 carries in eight games, post-Injury, which is like when Ramandra came back to the end of the regular season, which was six games, Ramandra had 47 carries, Travian 80 carries, then of course in the playoffs, Ramandra ran away a little bit with 58 carries in Travian 30 carries. So man, this is really tough. I honestly like don't have a super strong lean. I think you could probably sell yourself either way. So Gretches, your thoughts here are just having Travian ahead and base carries and the way you're expecting it to play out this season. And this is one of the hardest back fields to figure out. I one of the things is there doesn't really seem to be a real number three presence here. So we can start there. The round seven guy, Jan Miller from PAMA is fast, but he seems really limited. They self-like twirled Jennings and who I mean, I don't know who else is going to matter here. My perception on last year is there were a couple flips that it wasn't just that Ramandra Stevenson was better. I think we kind of forget that through week 13, this dude had a 3.2 yards per carry with a fumbling issue. And then the final four weeks of the regular season, yet in 9.6, that's a real number 3.2 yards per carry. He had a, and then he had a 9.6 yards per carry in the final four games, six total touchdowns. Some of that came on because of when Henderson got his concussion. I think it was week 16. And then they wrote that hot hand into the post season. Naturally, because Stevenson was absolutely smashing. He had a good playoff on his receiver. He really struggled as a runner late in the conversation and then the Super Bowl. I'm not saying Stevenson's a bad player. I'm talking to him off that. I think he's up one of these backs. It does everything. I do think his profile gets romanticized a bit when people focus their eye on Henderson's flaws, which were apparent as a rookie. Henderson's issues were clear. But I do think Stevenson's like mostly a, a jagged like, you know, just a guy that may be enough if Henderson's not better. But I do think Anderson does clearly still have the, the bigger profile ceiling. But his ADP is really steep. Like I, I think I could make the case that you could pay for a cheaper antifragil bet there where like he is, he had a really great profile college. It's really breakout player. He was the only running back in the NFL with 450 plus yard runs last year. There's some really good peripherals. He had a really high Miss tackles forced per catch. So Ramondra Stevenson, one of the fascinating things about his profile is he had an awesome receiving profile last year. He ends up second in the NFL in air yards behind only Christian McCaffrey, which is, I mean, not something I would have ever guessed in a million years would have been what Ramondra Stevenson would have done last year. I think that role was actually designed for Travegan Henderson. They talked about him in the past game all off season. There was actually a quote from McDaniel. Like in the post season about how Stevenson's past blocking allowed him to make up like an impact in the past game. And Henderson notoriously was horrible in the past blocking game. There were other rookies that were bad too. So I mean, there's a whole thing about how the defensive fronts did a lot of really interesting stuff. We've talked about it a couple times. And I think some of the rookies had a harder time in past protection as a result that they were seeing very different things and they were seeing in college. And so maybe that can actually develop for Henderson. That he was supposed to be a good past protector coming out of college, a willing past protector. So anyway, it's interesting to me that Travegan Henderson got 10.6 attempts per game to 9.3 for Ramondra last year. I mean, you talked about how it changed over the year, but he also played more games. He had 50 more carries as a rookie, 180 to 130. I don't think a people, a lot of people would think that they would think that was flipped that Ramondra Stevenson had 50 more carries. Henderson got talked about a lot for only having four snaps in the conference championship. And he did. But he also had 25 plus snaps in each of the other three playoff games, including the Super Bowl. They went right back to playing him a meaningful amount in the Super Bowl. He wasn't good in the playoffs necessarily. And there are real issues with this profile going forward. He did have a higher target's pro run during the season as well. I think there was early intent to get him the ball in the past game. But again, he struggled in past pro. And then you had that quote from Adaniel's, it was during the post season, actually found the quote here, ability in past pro allowed him to play a role as a past catcher was the correct way he said that. And then Ramondra was greatest receiver because he got all his air yards. He caught a couple long ones. He has a massive 9.3 yards per target, which is like an absurd number for Ramondra Stevenson to have in a veteran season. It's not going to be sustainable. I mean, I didn't project that as you know, as what Ramondra Stevenson's going to do as a past catcher this year. But also when you're making those plays vertically, like we've talked about how teams were using the running backs and like vertically a little bit more last year, Stevenson's one of the best examples of it. And when you're making those plays, you're going to get those opportunities more. I think he earned it. I think the biggest thing that happened late in the year, well, along with Henderson having issues, but for a stretch there, I think when Henderson was hitting the long runs, they were willing to deal with the issues just to get him as like the higher, like they thought his explosiveness was worth getting on the field. And then I think when Stevenson flipped his efficiency, his ball and hand efficiency flipped again, through week 13, 3.2 yards per carry. He had still done some stuff in the past game, but he was struggling as a runner. And then when soon as he flipped it, then you don't have to deal with the mistakes from Henderson in past protection and that stuff. You just ride Stevenson in terms of going forward. I don't know how predictive that is of 2026. This is where I was talking about how I think this is a team both in their past catchers, how it was balanced. And there was some rotational stuff throughout the year. This is one of those teams. I think what the 18 game season is like, we're going to take it as it comes. We see depth and we see rotational stuff and we're going to take it as it comes. I think that things changed throughout the year in their backfield. Steve, Stevenson ended the season clearly dominant. A lot of the numbers I'm giving about the full season, like Travind having 50 more Russia attempts, is me just trying to emphasize that that wasn't the whole season, right? Like it came in EBS in flows, and I think that's how 2026 projects as well. And so then you have to kind of talk about profile bets. Like is Stevenson's profile the one you wanna bet on because you don't think Henderson can correct the mistakes? Or if Henderson corrects the mistakes, does he have enough efficiency upside to then be the guy who sticks on the field? You know, at that point. - It's definitely fair, fair questions. And right now in Onerog, we only have a four-spot gap and ranking between Travion and Ramonjai. We do have Travion ahead, but in terms of ADP, they're going 24 spots apart. So obviously we are suggesting a draft, Ramonjai with that rank and kind of fade Travion. And I am a little bit concerned because I was like looking through this stuff and I was like, man, did Ramonjai just go on like a playoff heater kind of thing? And it's hard not to extrapolate the playoff stuff because those are the highest leverage games and you want to say, okay, they're playing Ramonjai way more than Travion. He's getting way more touches in the playoff. So it doesn't that mean they trust some more willing on him more in the next season. But I agree. And I was also a little bit surprised that Ramonjai is 28 years old. I honestly thought he was a little bit younger than that. So Jack, I'm a little bit concerned because I have been taking a lot of Ramonjai and the Travion profile is very explosive and he's much younger, bet 23 years old there. He was, you know, showed to be an explosive NFL player last year. So it's a tough position here, but I'm honestly a little bit swayed. I'm curious your thoughts on this split here. - Yeah, I think Grosband made a lot of really good points. And I'm not opposed to tidying the gap after hearing what he had to say. I think that contextualizing that conference championship game and maybe weighing it less than the other three games, makes sense. As he said, I was kind of looking at the fact that Ramonjai carried Henderson 58 to 30 in the four-platform games. But if you throw out that snow game, which is obviously just the super unique environment, it was only 33 to 27 in favor of Ramonjai. And I think that keeping the long view, I felt all offseason that Henderson's kind of a scary fade, but I think that the fact that they went so hard toward Ramonjai in the high leverage situations has made me feel okay about it. But it certainly is a scary fade. I do think that regardless of how this backfield shakes out, I don't think there's a world in which Ramonjai goes away. And I mean, even last year through the Fumble issues, they kind of stuck with them. I mean, he had seven Fumbles in 2024. He had three in a three-week stretch, including two in a single game. Early last season and they kept going back to him. He led the team in carries. The week after he had two Fumbles, he had 13 carries. The week after he fumbled again in week five. It wasn't like he was dominating carries, but the coach leaked throughout that stretch was positive despite an ongoing Fumble issue. And then we saw him take over the backfield again in the playoffs after Travion had been dominating carries in weeks 13 through 18, including week 17 and 18 post concussion for Travion. So I don't really think that there's a world in which Ramonjai goes away. And I mean, maybe it kind of goes the way of like a Kenneth Walker and Ramonjai Stevenson situation. Although I do think that given the profile Henderson had coming out of Ohio State, he probably has more past-catching upside than Walker, just keeping the long B because that was kind of his calling card coming out of college. It's certainly interesting to think through and after hearing Gretz talk, I would be open to moving it a little bit closer. But I certainly don't think Ramonjai is going away. But whether we should have only being the teaming carries is a different question. Although I will say we do have the ceiling case tilted pretty hard and Henderson's favor, despite having fewer carries on base right now, which maybe we'll change after the show. We do have Henderson with quite a bit higher of a ceiling, which I think is pretty indisputable. I will, I'll cop by the way to my split, be heavily ADP based. Like it's just like, I didn't really know how to space it. But I was like, yeah, I mean, Trigger is going to hire and I don't want my projections to be like way too low on Trigger and Henderson. So I'm just gonna like, and it's a little bit more of the, some of the ceiling stuff you just said is like, I think if things go well, you're seeing Henderson make year two improvements and you're seeing him potentially take more work later in the year. - I think probably in the redraft too. I think probably in redraft too, there's a much stronger case for Travy on being like an obvious weekly start every single week, whereas Remondre, it might be a little bit tougher to get there, whereas again, in Bestball that line is a little bit blurried. I do think like Jack said though, it's not like Remondre is going away. And I do think the pass protection role is gonna continue to lean into Remondre. It was just so heavily in his favor last year. He had 112 pass blocking snaps. I mean, while Travy on the head, 48, and in terms of like just like total snaps play, it was very similar across the board. So they very clearly favored Remondre in that category. And I don't necessarily, I don't know, I'm a little skeptical of that flipping, Travy on's favor in year two, even though he was profiled as an above average pass protector coming out of college. Okay, let's go to the wider receiver room, AJ Brown brought in this off season in his age 29 season after much behind last year in Philadelphia. And some funny parallels to his last season in Tennessee and then getting shipped to the Eagles last year at a pretty noticeable dip in yards per target down to 8.3. That was his lowest in his career also, which aligns perfectly with his last year in Tennessee, which was also 8.3 yards per target. And then he went up to 10.3 the following year in Philly in his first season, which was the best season of his career. And then just kind of throwing out, just like number, it's just like vibes based on AJ Brown. And he feels like a vindictive enough wider receiver one to kind of have the mentality to change teams and really want to stick it to his former team. So I'm loving the AJ Brown profile this year and he's going in kind of mid round two, which I think is a great pick in terms of projections that were even quite a bit behind where Gretches, he read 118 targets, Gretches at 142. So heavily leaning into Alpha AJ Brown season, which again, I love to see this past catching group last year was honestly pretty confusing because the Steph Diggs per round number is really strong, but he just never really consolidates routes in a meaningful enough way to have a super consistent weekend and week out role. And then it was just really muddled behind them with Matt Collins, Keshaw and Booty, Tamara O'Dougas and Kyle Williams. And now they bring in AJ Brown and Dobs and only lose Steph Digg. So I think it's a lot of bodies after AJ Brown and I guess maybe you could pencil in Romeo Dobs as a wide receiver to there. But I do think all signs point to Alpha AJ Brown season and Gretches, you come in 24 targets ahead of us, which is a very meaningful gap. How are you viewing this move for AJ Brown in New England? - I was curious that we were coming in here. I guess I'm more concerned about how much higher I am than you guys on Romeo Dobs, 'cause that was one where I was like, am I pushing this button too far? I think AJ Brown is way better than everyone else in this passing game. I think there are not a lot of true superstars. AJ Brown had a 2.06 yards per out run in a clear down year last year. When we did the Vikings, that's about how Justin Jefferson at 1.88 was the first time he was below 2.5 to start his after five straight years to start his career. Brown was running a six straight, 2.5 plus yards per out run streak. He had been at 2.99 just in 2024 before his down year, which was still over 2, which is some guys career season, by the way. And he left plays on the field with drops. He didn't care. He was like, visibly, this is like a very much a film take, but as somebody watches the game and writes about him every week, he visibly was not trying for a long time, and then about halfway through the year, he was like, well, I mean, I still want stats, and so now I'm gonna start trying, and then he's like, started producing. To me, this is still a player that is a consistent problem to defend down after down at all depths, before and after the catch point, the yak stuff is still really good. This idea of what I've talked about a little bit with some of the receivers, making tough stuff look easy, has been like the strength of AJ Brown's throughout his career. I think it gets missed by most casual observers, but it's why he's so good at the deep all he has, late hands every time, so like the cornerback can't swipe on him and stuff. And that's caused some of the drops, and they see the drop and they're like, oh, he's bad. It's like, yeah, because that's 'cause he flashes hands so late, and then he's not like really concentrating enough. I'm not saying he's not trying, but it's like, it's a lack of concentration. I think there's gonna be another level from AJ Brown, he's still only 29. The stuff about the knee was a real concern for the Rams who dropped out of trying to acquire him, but they seemed to be more concerned about less about 2026 than like two to three years, and the Pat still gave up a ton to get him, significantly more than the bills give to get DJ Moore, for example. These are both guys that I've always really liked. Moore's a little harder for me to get to. AJ Brown is one, the price the Pat's paid, they're clearly not concerned about it. I'll also say once upon a time, we talked about the number one wider saver in Josh Muganiel's office is as a gold mine. You go back to when he was the Rams head coach a long, long time ago, huge brand of martial season followed by huge brand and Lloyd season. Or sorry, that was, yeah, I was sorry, the Broncos, that's why I said. - The Broncos, yeah. - Devon say Adams recently just had two massive seasons for the Raiders under Muganiel's, 180 than 175 targets. Diggs last year went on the field, he had it as routes limited, but we talked about how the Per Out Run was awesome. Chikoby Myers really consolidated in 2020. 2021, Edelman, Groanck, some of those guys have had some big years for him in New England as well. Again, I just think this is a player that's incredible. You talked about how his yard's perturget was down. His yak perception was a career low still, okay? One of the things he's always been able to give you is a high A dot plus yak, which those are typically inversely correlated. That's part of why as yard's perturget was down, the yak was not there. Again, A.4 yards perturget or A.3 or whatever the number you gave, that's not terrible for other guys. That Romeo Dobbs has been improving his yard's perturget the last couple years and his two good years, the last two years are right in that range. His two years prior were like seven, right? That's when Romeo Dobbs's yard's perturget couldn't be what AJ Brown is in a bad year. Another note I want to mention is the routes. We're just talking about this with a concade thing. This first two years in failure, he was over 575 routes per PFS numbers. Last year 487 as they went so run heavy, that third year in between there, he missed some time was also, you know, sub 500. So over the last couple years, that's going to impact his final palis as far as the receptions, the yardage, all of that. I think he's in line to run 550 plus routes again. I think he's in line to have that per route run rate rise again as we talk about the other secondary receivers here. I'll explain a little bit more about why I don't think any of those guys are really going to contend with Brown. I think this is like a clear alpha. I think it's the kind of guy Josh McDaniel builds offences around. I think he's a perfect fit for Drake May. He's a really good vertical wide receiver and Drake May through those balls so well last year that you're talking about like K-Shampoody and tomorrow Douglas despite really low targets per route. When the ball got out to him, their yards per target was like elite. They had these long catches. I mean, AJ Brown is going to step in here and just be unless he's not there health wise, I think he's going to be the clear alpha. Yeah, he's been one of my favorite targets in the second round of draft so far this season. I really do love the upside case for AJ Brown. Agreed. It's kind of best quarter back play of his career coming over here with Drake May. I do want to get to the secondary receivers though. Romeo Dobbs, we do project as wide receiver two here at 72 targets, but Gretches is a little bit higher there at 92. I see this as more of like a lateral move for Romeo Dobbs last year. K-Shampoody led the Patriots with a 71% route share. You know, I've hit on digs a couple times. He was only at 68%. Dobbs for the Packers was mostly in like the low 70s over the last few seasons. So I don't necessarily think like the role is going to be expanded a lot here and then you play with more of like an alpha target earner and AJ Brown and I do kind of like wonder a little bit about the upside for four Dobbs. Again, it just seems more like a lateral move, but we are a little bit behind market on him, both in best ball and now kind of behind Gretches target numbers. So curious your thoughts on Dobbs's change here over to the Pats. Yeah, I think Dobbs is a solid player. They gave him four years for $68 million. They seemed to like him. His yards per target has increased in every season of his career. My real question with Dobbs is just what the routes numbers are going to be like. Like you said, because they were so rotation heavy last year to the point where it's the fun digs never even played more than 68.7% of snaps. And now they have AJ Brown who I think we all agree is going to be in an every down role or they are they just suddenly going to abandon this relatively deep wider super room that they seem to like using last year in favor of getting Romeo Dobbs on the field in every down role. I'm not super convinced. I mean Matt Collins is a really good blocker. I think that's a good question. I don't have a clear answer. That's definitely the way I projected it. Is it going to go that way? I think where we disagree maybe or the way that I'm seeing it is I don't know that those guys were great last year. I think that was actually maybe a limitation for the offense. One of the notes I had is Matt Collins was 32 last year. He turned 32 in September. He's going to turn 33 going into this year and play a ton. Then after he was injured, he stepped back into a role in two postseason games where he immediately earned 10 targets. I talked about how basically five targets of game was leading the team in the postseason. The fact that Matt Collins returning right off injury is into a key postseason role speaks to some broader concerns. I think Keishan Boudie was efficient. The second on team and Wattersy were out. He was 12.3% targets per route. I think he's a good player of the ball, but I don't think he created this separation that they needed. I think they were out Douglas very limited routes 222 strong yards per out run on those limited routes, but I think they felt like they needed to use him situationally for one reason or another. I do think those two guys are decent role players. I think they'll be likely in the rotation this year. Boudie and Douglas. I think Collins is the one at age 33 that maybe gets phased out a little. I do agree that seems to really like him for blocking and some of that stuff. But Kyle Williams, they wanted to get a lot out of him. Five year college player. He's only 178 routes. Supposed to be more experienced at that point and still had an 11.8% targets per out, even with like rotational usage, where sometimes that can spike day to capital in a week receiving room. Not a good long term look there. They've been talking to the whole off season about how he needs to get stronger. He's lifting all this stuff. It's like two dudes like already 24 like I'm not loving that they're like he's not strong enough. Like we need him to be we need him to lift weights. That's not ideal. I honestly I don't know what's up with digs he was coming off an ACL. I mean, that's part of the reason that routes were a little bit potentially more rotational. I don't know why he wasn't used a little bit more, but I do think part of it was. They were concerned about him. When I wrote up my like postseason recap that I call field tippers, I had a quote in my writing that I just reviewed recently that said they had such weak options. The top target and maybe the second target might not even be on the roster for next year. Maybe I'm overindexing to my own like prediction that they went out and acquired these guys. But when I went through the projections that I read that I was like, yeah, they were kind of crappy last year. And then they went out and acquired these two guys. I think they're I mean, even dogs who I don't think is incredible is to me. He's solid. He's good at what he does. He's an adequate number two is target sprouting on always the number two range about 20% or just below the after the target efficiency is improved from the poor first couple of years. As you noted after the target efficiency like yards per target those things, it's gotten better each year. I think that's a credit to him that I do think he's gotten better. He used to have some odd plays where he just left stuff out on the field. I think he's cleaned some of that up. I think they went and got him because he's more stable. Even as a number two and then they go get AJ Brown who's, you know, I think going to be the pretty clear number one. Obviously I just shared that. But I thought there was a lot of room for those two to consolidate when I started my projection and went through it. I don't love that I'm basically cutting the target right from last year for everyone else because they still have all the guys are on the team last year, basically, right? And I'm just moving them all down the list. But that's kind of the way it looks to me. Yeah. Yeah. That's certainly fair and again, something I am a little bit worried about just kind of leaning too much into the splits from last year. But you know, they end up making the Super Bowl and we're a very successful offensive at the season. So it's like a little bit of a if it ain't broke. Don't fix it. But you know, they do bring into two new pieces to the wider see room as well. So a little bit of like I think conflicting information there. But yeah, we are, you know, essentially just higher on the Mac Collins, Kishon booty, tomorrow Douglas target shares by quite a bit compared to AJ Brown and Robya, dogs compared to Grach. So I'd be a spot we want to look at and convince a little bit on those top two and AJ Brown, especially as someone I want to want to remain as as him being a target for us in draft the season. Okay, let's go to the Titans here led by Hunter Henry in this Titan room. They lose Austin Hooper to the Falcons this off season. They did sign Julian Hill, but he has suffered an injury that is going to cause him to miss this whole upcoming season. So a bit of a ding there already to the Titan room and then they draft Eli Raridan out of Notre Dame in the third round this season, 95th overall. But Hunter Henry pretty solid last year, Titan 12 on the season currently going as as the Titan 19 on underdog. We have him as a little bit of a value here at a Titan 16 in terms of inputs. We're at 62 and a half targets on Hunter Henry. Grash is at 79 there. On terms of yards, we're target. We're at closer to 7.9. Grash at that 7 and a half there. So we're a little bit lighter on the volume, but a little bit hotter on the efficiency and also a little bit hotter on his top. touchdowns despite being like 16 targets behind there. So I think, you know, Hunter Henry not like the sexiest Titan target this year, but probably gonna have some value in this offense. Jack any thoughts on this Patriots Titan room? - Yeah, he keeps getting targets on our Henry's, but at least the 19% target per hour on three straight seasons. I think that with the improved wide receiver room that we've been talking about, we're expecting that to take a hit and him to take a little bit of a back seat, but even with that expectation, we're still ahead of his underdog ADP. We're basically at his draftings ADP, but yeah, I think that they drafted Raridon largely for the future. Hunter Henry is an unrestricted free agent after this year. I know that Raridon has a lot of fans as a prospect, and I think long term that that makes sense. I do think that this year it's still likely Hunter Henry's job, and he's proven over the past few years that he's just a consistent dependable target earner. - Led the team in targets in May's rookie year in 2024 was second last year behind only digs in 2025. Low end tight end won both years. Turns 32 in December. It's not necessarily too old at tight end. It's a decent bet to accumulate. Like I'm pushing him down because I think they have way better number one and number two receivers. Like what you guys are talking about, but it's very solid 1.67 yards prior to run last year. And then one little note on him, I do think he has a solid connection with Drake May, just with all that target. I think there's something real there. Like with all that target volume over the first two years like Jack was talking about. So yeah, I think he's like palatable tight end 1980 P for a guy that's probably gonna be out there quite a bit. He's probably not a huge ceiling play, but I mean, it's fine. - Yeah, pretty much my thoughts there, exactly. All right, let's head to some, man, one of the most interesting teams in the league to project this year, and that's the Miami Dolphins. Almost a complete overall here coaching staff comes in, we have Jeff Hathley here coming from the Packers over to be the head coach Bobby Slowick is going to be the offensive coordinator and play caller here. Bobby Slowick was on the Dolphins coaching staff last year though he was the past game coordinator, which I honestly did not realize before researching this. So I guess a little bit of continuity there. You have Bobby Slowick staying in the building, but in terms of team level projections here, we are at 59.2 plays for game Gretches at 59.6. We're at 55.6% pass rate Gretches at 55% there. So pretty much in alignment for the most part on the team level stuff. And the Dolphins we have projected for the least plays per game or the fewest plays per game in the NFL this season as well as the second lowest pass rate at 55.5%. So not the best fantasy environment here overall. But yeah, I mean, just meant tons of overall here, Malik Willis to starting quarterback, the wide receiver room, unlike anything we've ever seen here. Just a lot of interesting stuff going on. I do want to mention their defensive coordinator, Sean Duggan was hired. And I saw him play high school football. He's a couple years older than me and was on a defensive back slash linebacker when I was in high school. So shout out Sean Duggan excited to see what he can do in the league here. But man, I don't know, this is this is a wild team set up here. Jack here, what are your thoughts here on the Dolphins? And this is this is team. It's like kind of throw your hands up and man, I don't really know how it's going to go, but Bobby slow gets another shot here as offensive coordinator. What are your what are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I kind of have an idea of how it's going to go. I think it's going to go pretty, pretty poorly. I mean, it's just, but Malik Willis was fun last year, but it's just not a very interesting team starting with the coaching staff. Really, I mean, Bobby slow was basically chased out of town in Houston. The Texans actually were worse in EPA per play rank last year than they were under slow in 2023 or 2024, although they did play three Davis Mills games last year that lowered the EPA per play. But it's not like they were completely disastrous, but I think that given how strong Stradz crews started off, it was disappointing and makes sense that he was chased out. Jeff Halfley, the head coach, the was the defensive coordinator for the packers, the packers defense completely fell apart once Michael Parsons went down and before that, before Halfley was the packers DC, he went 500 is Boston College, Boston College's head coach. I think you can expect this team to be really run heavy simply because of the quarterback and likely also pretty slow, which also goes back to how bad they are as well as the quarterback. The packers were really, really slow under Willis, and they had really high motion rates in those games as well. I think the floor maybe was really trying to lock in whenever he had Malik Willis at quarterback because the motion rates were like above 80% anytime. Willis was the quarterback and the pace was really, really slow as a result. Except for that Ravens game where they got blown out and had to be a negative game script. I don't, I think that this is basically a question of how low can you go on the pass rate for a team that is not going to win more than maybe five games? Willis has double digits, scramble and sac rates in his career. He's got 12% or higher on both scramble and sac rates. He's going to have a lot of designed runs. So it's just going to be really ugly, I think, from a play volume standpoint and a pass rate standpoint. I echo all that. Some fun little numbers on it. Malik Willis has only made six starts this in his career. He has thrown no more than 23 passes in a game and in those six starts, which for people who don't immediately know how well that is. If he averaged 23 per game, the dolphins would come in under 400 pass attempts to be a record breaking low number. He's only thrown 20 plus passes twice, like being in the low 20s on an average basis is extremely low pass volume. Now this was with some good offenses and some good teams were like when Green Bay tried to win with him, they would do a really run heavy offense as Jack just detailed. They're going to have to throw more because a game script at times, although Jeff Halfley came right out and said, when teams know we're going to run the ball, we're still going to run it well. Like he wants their core to be running the ball. He went into liking the Shanahan tree offenses and wanted to be under center and running and then play pass off of that time. They're under the pass game. I do want to shout out Halfley for this quote, which was again, I love when they save the things that we've talked about. We talked about how defenses want to take away explosives. This offseason, he said, and as a defensive guy, I want an offensive coordinator. This kind of hunt explosives because everything I do in every single situation on defense is to eliminate explosives. Just a good note from like that's the way the defenses are thinking right now. That's the way Jeff Halfley is thinking about his new team. He wants to eliminate explosives from the other side, which is, I mean, not really, really relevant to this projection. But this is, yeah, everything Jack said about it's going to be a very slow pace. They're going to do a lot of motion. They're going to all the Shanahan offenses are like that. And Halfley's wanted to run that way. His offense that way and brought in slow to do that. Malik Willis is going to have an incredibly high scramble rate scramble rate for his career. 13.4%. It was 19.1% last year. There's just 47 dropbacks. He has just 209 for his career. We have a very small sample. But if you go back to college, his scramble rate was 14.6% very high. His sac rate last year was a career about 6.4% in a good offense with our running effectively and throwing off of that. It's 12% for his career. And college, it was a really high 8.9% for like a collegiate for a future NFL player, especially because he was at liberty to take sacks on 9% of dropbacks. So this guy who takes a lot of sacks. So you have this other issue as well. When they do dropback, he's going to scramble a lot and can take a lot of sacks. We talked about this with Justin Fields a lot last year. The percentage of dropped called passes dropbacks that turn into pass attempts. Fields was like, I remember on these pods with Leonie emphasizing fields is in another planet, like almost 30% of his dropbacks end up not being pass attempts. And like even any other mobile quarterbacks aren't in those ranges. Malik Willis is in that range. He's like the only other dude that's in that range. If you take his career scramble rate and career sack rate, you're like over you're over 25% of his dropbacks are not becoming pass attempts. And they're going to call passes at an incredibly low rate. And they're going to lose. So they're not going to get the ball enough. And they're going to play slow. They're going to run incredibly low number of place. I projected them for the fewest called passes. And then they're going to convert the fewest called passes into actual pass attempts. It's not fun for fantasy in this offense. It gets very, very grim fast. I didn't know how I was going to look. I'm amazed at how close our projections look. But I love that as you guys put in the receiver names in the comparison tool, you just added a bunch of other names. And they have so many random names. That's great. It's a, it's, it's really like an unprecedented team, I think to project because, because you have this, this dynamic with us at quarterback and you, and you do kind of have to extrapolate the small sample that we've seen of him as a starter to, okay, how is this going to look over a old, can he, can he scramble almost 14% of the time? I, I don't know. We've, we've kind of doubted him back closer to like 10%, which is just kind of like the highest we've given to, to a quarterback scramble rate for, for a full season at this point similar with like Jane Danes and Andre Cnae who, you know, Jane Danes, 12. Yeah. For which is, which, which could be fair and honestly like we could, we could end up being light, Malik Willis rushing output. That, that is the spot we are a little bit behind you. Grat, we're at 126 rush attempts here at 139. We are pretty even in terms of the yardage and actually even a little bit ahead of, of you on, on rush CDs. But in terms of like the rush volume, like I think this is probably the most muted we could get. You know, like I could, I could see us coming up on, on the scramble rate, even we, and then we haven't designed, or project, and for about three designed rush attempts per game. And his three starts with the Packers over the last couple of years. He's had exactly three designed Russian Thompson in every game, which I found interesting. But I mean, yeah, he's just been a prolific runner too. You know, had 170 for rushing yards and the three starts with the Packers over the few years. So it's not even that he's just scrambling and running a lot by like he is an absolutely elite runner and has displayed that at the NFL level. So man, it could get pretty nutty here for fantasy, but the lack of like passing, you know, passing SaaS contribution is I think really going to be the kicker here. Because we average out for like 440 pass attempts between the two of us, which in around 3,000 yards, which is just an insanely low number for full season projection for a quarterback. When I was trying to jump or about to jump in there, I was going to share a note I had that I wrote. The rushing projection could get, could really be pretty nutty if I was in the line of the presidency. I did that, you had to use that exact term. I didn't push the efficiency necessarily, but I think if you really wanted to push it, so it gets to this, that's what I was struggling with is like you were just talking about. He's been really efficient as a rusher. But I'm like, how much of that is the Packers offense and the design and the players around him and all of those things? How much of that is just purely his athleticism and what have you? I mean, I think he's a good football player and he's a good ball and hand player. In addition to being able to throw and his per drop back passing has been really efficient. I think that gets back to the green Bay offense when we did the green Bay show. I talked about how Jordan loves efficiency, really, really good. And I don't think I gave Jordan love enough credit on that. So I was, you know, kind of coming at his supporters. I do want to note, he's good at throwing the deep stuff and Willis has shown that too. Backed getting back to half these quote, teams are trying to take away that stuff. And in that green Bay offense, both love and Willis, yes, they were running a lot to set up shot plays, but they both threw the shot plays effectively. Like to go hunt deep plays and make those passes is impressive. If Willis can bring that over, yeah, that's, I mean, obviously great. If they're run heavy and they're able to then have the explosive pass plays off of that. Maybe that is a skill that he has. We have such a small sample on Malik Willis that it is really, really difficult to know. Even the little things like the rush efficiency that you described, how much we really want to push that. I will know very similar to the Cardinals. Cardinals we talked about having being a really bad team at the hardest schedule in the NFL. This team's second hardest schedule in the NFL by look ahead lines. One more reason to be like, yeah, this is not going to go well. There might be some optimism in some of the things. And maybe Willis looks a lot better than, you know, there's ways you can certainly see him playing a good season this year. But that's probably also part of why they're going the direction they are. Is they knew that their schedule was going to be difficult this year. They know the divisions are going to play and where they're at. And it's just a full rebuild for them and the Cardinals. It's kind of a weird thing because usually you get, you know, the last place teams playing a little bit of an easier schedule. We have two teams this year that are like in clear rebuilds and play the two hardest schedules. I mean, I think last year like the Chiefs had the hardest schedule because they're playing a first place schedule. These teams are bad and they're leaning into it and they're going to play a bunch of teams better than them. And they might just be, well, maybe not the Cardinals. But the Dolphins might just not be relevant for fantasy football. Yeah, I'll add that on the limited sample, it was only around 140 plays over the past two years. With the Packers, Willis is by far number one among all quarterbacks in EPA per play. If you lower the sample size enough in terms of snaps. And then on top of that, it's interesting that before Fraigency, there was some talk that he could get $30 plus million that teams were really buying. And he only ended up getting around $22.5 million for three years. I don't know if a pre-existing relationship with the Dolphins GM and Jeff Hathley played into that at all. But it didn't seem like the NFL ended up buying into the limited sample size with Willis as much as we were maybe let the belief entering Fraigency, which I think is interesting to think about as it pertains to projecting Willis' actual talent level as a passer given that we have such a limited sample that the league didn't seem to totally buy it. Great point. Yeah, and I think Millie Willis just, you know, on like a macro scale, he does kind of limit what your offense can do. Or at least, I guess, perceive to limit how your offense can function just given the rushing nature that has been designed for him in the Packers the last couple of years, because it was an absolute, you turn from where the Packers were at certain points. They're like, oh, Millie, well, score back well. We're going to run it 40, 50 times a game and really didn't lean into the past stuff at all. But let's go-- or I guess we should talk about the fantasy value ultimately here. Because we talked about the rushing and floor that he'll provide. He's going as the QB21 right now in Under Rock. We're at QB20. So a little bit about eight spots ahead of ADP on him. And I think the floor here is extremely strong. And if the passing can come along at all, I think be a bottom end, QB1. I don't really think the upside is there necessarily just with this pass catcher core. But it's even a target for you guys and I guess best ball and re-drop to this point. I have not been intrigued. Then when I got through the projection, I got a little bit more-- I could see it a little bit more because the rushing could drive it so much. The tricky part is the touchdowns, like overall in the offense. And I talked about this with the Pats out there. They projected a lot lower. I mean, you guys have more rushing TDs for him. I ended up with a little bit more on the Devon H&N rushing TD side and trying to figure out how to hit those rates. It may be the case that Willis will wind up with more rushing TDs than H&N. And I think that would be very positive. And then if his rushing yards per carry is more in the range of where you guys are at, I mean, he goes late enough that there's like legitimate rushing potential here. It's just with rushing QBs, I always think you do need a floor of passing. I had a hard time with fields last year, even though I loved his rushing potential, because I thought that that Jets offense was going to have a hard time with the passing. There's just no weapons. He at least had Garrett Wilson. Malik Willis has nobody. When you go through a projection, you're like, who am I projecting anything for? The rookies might develop. Like as the season goes on, this is another one of those teams that's going to be different throughout the 18 weeks, as we've talked about. Some of these teams looking at it from a different perspective. I think they're going to have some veterans playing early in some rookies playing late, and a lot of different things happening, but I don't know that he has a lot of playmakers on the other side of these throws to have the passing efficiency that he had in Green Bay. I mean, he had Christian Watson and Jane Reed and these dudes making plays for him. It's tricky for the passing to even be like a floor for him to be a low end QB1. It just really pushes the limit of that, you know, Konami code quarterback. 100% all right, let's go to the running back room, Devon H&N remains in this backfield. He has going through this. He did undergo offseason shoulder surgery, so he was not a part of mini camp, which I thought was interesting. He missed the last game of the season last year and then had, you know, quote unquote, like cleanup procedure, essentially expected to be fine for training camp, but offseason surgery always like peaks my interest there. A little bit. And then he's really thrived over the last couple seasons obviously in the pass catching department. When you bring in a quarterback like Malik Willis that theoretically saps that a bit. And so Gretz's target projection on Devon H&N was one I was really curious about. And we're almost identical there. We're at 64.3 targets on H&N Gretz's at 65, in terms of rush attempts, we're at 211 and Gretz's at 222 there. So honestly, H&N has been one of the tougher guys for us to nail down just because it is such a big flip in terms of like the offensive scheme and the quarterback play here. And so the fact that that we're pretty aligned makes me feel a little bit better on the surface level here. But Jack, this backfield led by H&N S. Jalen Wright and Ali Gordon here rounding out the room, what are your thoughts on the Dolphins backfield handed to the 2026 season? Yeah, I'll start with the last relevant players because I think it's funny that both Gretz and us both projected Jalen Wright and Ali Gordon for the exact same number of carries as each other and targets as each other basically just throwing arms up and saying, we don't know. Who the RB2 is. But in fact, they both had 70 carries in nine targets last year. They had the same number of carries and targets. Although Wright only played 10 games in Gordon played 17. But yeah, we're doing the same thing for this year. It's 20. I do lean right a little bit there because he missed the first six games. And then it's Ali Gordon had a ton of five coming out of training camp and then it kind of seemed like he fumbled his opportunity. I think he averaged 2.8 yards for Terry Wright was significantly more efficient than that. So I lean right if picking a backup there and maybe that's one where we could spend, where we could move a little bit of work. Slowic also said that Wright has quote, some speed, which is always nice to hear. But on H&N, who's far more relevant, super impressive last year to average 5.7 yards for carry in post 1,350 rushing yards in that offense. He also had an 18.8% target share. I think the big question is, with a running quarterback, like Willis, how much does that decline? Because you think through it if a quarterback has the ability to scramble instead of dumping it down to a running back, he's going to scramble. And we saw that play out in practice when Willis was in Green Bay. And the two games will play the majority of last year. The Packers running backs had a 12.2% target share. And weeks 2 and 3 last year Packers, weeks 2 and 3 of 2024. Packers running max at a 12.5% target. So we've seen that fly out and practice a little bit. The issue and why I don't think it's a perfect one to one comparison here is that H&N is just so clearly the best pass catcher in this offense that it makes sense for them to prioritize getting him the ball as much as possible. We'll get to this legacy room in a minute, but it's easily the worst I think I've ever seen. So it just makes sense that they want to get H&N the ball out of the back field as much as they can. Despite Willis kind of deflating the attempts he gets in the natural flow of the game if he's scrambling so much. But I have real systemic concerns just about how good of a fantasy season are running back and have in an offense that I think is going to be this bad. I mean, if they're as bad as people think, there's also some possibility that we get the week 17 and they're deciding to dial back H&N's workload or something like that just because they're so out of contention and it doesn't make sense to risk their franchise running back with a big workload at that point. So I think that there's real concerns about how high the target share can be with a quarterback of Willis' playstyle. I think that there's concerns about how many touchdowns H&N will have on an offense this bad. I don't think there's much concern that he's going to dominate the back field opportunities as long as he stays healthy, but I think that how valuable those opportunities are actually going to be is in big question and kind of makes me not have a ton of interest in him at his current ADP. I would rubber stamp 100% of what Jack just said. I think that was perfect analysis. The right part of it over Gordon, I really like his well, that you noted the more efficient thing. He had more than 100 more yards than Gordon, even though they had the exact same workload. I had the exact same notes on H&N. I'll just throw out that with slow it in the back. As the past game coordinator last year, his targets and receptions fell just a little, but he added about three Russian temps per game last year. So in 2025 versus the 2024. And especially later in 2025, they were kind of not featuring him in the past game quite as much as they did in 2024. He had a massive receiving roll over 85 targets. But you have two. I mean, you have a guy who turns every drop back into a past attempt, gets the ball out, doesn't take sacks, doesn't scramble. Now you have to what Jack said. The playmaking style of quarterback that tends to hold the ball long time and then scramble a lot and sack a lot. They don't get down to their progression down to the running back. That's where it comes. He has a high eight out in his passes. He pushes it vertically. He holds the ball trying to find something vertically until he runs or gets sacked. He doesn't find the check down. Now H&N will run some routes down field as well. He had some may yards and they did some of that. At least Mike McDaniel did some of that, but it's nice to know that you know, slow was on on staff and to Jack's point. The other great note is he's probably their best pass get your even as a running back. And so they'll probably continue to do that. But like Bruce Hall's receiving created with fields last year. Same style of quarterback. It's not very conducive to this. I honestly thought I'd go lower with the targets as I started. And then to Jack's point, him being better than all the other guys, you're like, I'm not going to give all these other guys way more. Like the teams are going to use their players that are good. They're going to find a way to throw to him a little bit. But Malik Willis's style is going to take him from the polar opposite of to a style to this is it's really rough for H&N's receiving. People are excited about his rushing efficiency because of the mobility of Willis. And I think that's fair. The Green Bay backs were very efficient when Willis is in there. We know mobile quarterbacks helped that. But again, offense is not going to be good as Jack laid out. And Willis is rushing probably hurts H&N's rush to these. There was already concern about him at the goal line. And Malik Gordon stole like four rushing TDs last year. Jalen Wright had to tie to Kale famously in the preseason. And was talking about the or maybe early in the regular season. They shouldn't use H&N at the goal line. And like openly in the media sessions. Now your quarterback is maybe a threat to your rushing touchdowns in a very meaningful way. I think there's a lot more TDs in you guys. And I don't like that. I'm all the way up to Jack's conclusion. I don't want to be in on H&N. His projection can be OK. I don't see a lot of ceiling. It's a very small hit big miss if the efficiency craters because the offense craters. Because I think Mike McDaniel is a lot to do with getting him into space and things as well. Even though Devon H&N's incredibly good. I'm not trying to take that away from him. It's just really tough to do what he did last year, 5.7 yards per carry in an offense like this. To me, it feels very big miss if the efficiency craters as well. Yeah, I think Mike McDaniel is just lauded as one of the best run game quarters coordinators in the NFL. So I think losing that aspect is a big question mark on like, OK, how can H&N's efficiency sustain even when paired in a backfield with Malik Willis? I think losing McDaniel in that creativity and the way he's able to design a run game is probably a pretty brutal blow to H&N, again, despite his talents. One thing I am interested to see is how his alignment changes or I guess stays the same. This is coming near, but 38% of his past snaps have come in the slaughter out wide each of the last three seasons, which is a massive number for running back. It's like the classic joke every offseason we hear. We hear running backs are going to get split out wide and are in the slot and run real wide receiver routes. And like H&N actually has and has been featured that way. So I'm curious if that holds with a new coaching staff. But it's a pretty high mark to hit. Like 38% is a lot and I'm not convinced that that will hold. Two things. Even if they try to do it, I don't think you can execute it just because you put them out there. Like you can try to put them out there. And Bobby Slough is not Mike McDaniel. And then two, two of gets the ball out quickly and accurately in the short area. And I don't think people care enough about accuracy on like quick hitters. But like if they try to run that with Malik Willis, he's going to miss some of those throes in a way that two of does it. It's going to be worse even if they try to do it again. We have this cool tool on the back end of ETR where we can like put in the quarterback over the last couple of years and look at the target per out run and route rate with all their pass sketches. And the dolphins have had a lot of quarterbacks. They've had five quarterbacks over the last two years. But just looking at the H&N specific stuff, when two has been the quarterback, the Von H&N has a 28% target per out run. He had 148 targets on 537 routes with the other four quarterbacks. He had an 18% target per out run, 24 targets on 135 routes. So 400 fewer routes in the sample, but a 10% dip in target per out run. And then you bring in Malik Willis. And again, just a lot of the concerns that we're highlighting here, I think are pretty real and a pretty big detriment to his-- When they did that as well, just some more real NFLs, as I'm listening to you talk about, I'm thinking about it. They did a lot of shotgun to it. They've talked about wanting this offense to be under center. And the other note, when McDaniel went to the chargers, when we did the chargers, we talked about how he's had some comments about how he's been working with Justin Herbert's footwork because of the quick passing game. Again, it gets back to some of the finer details and the coaching points and things that he probably worked with, to on over multiple years that they've been able to get that stuff down. You can't just cut and paste Malik Willis into this role that led to Devon H&N splitting out why I did having those. Because they're going to do the under center runs and then play action off of that. Where does that fit into that offense? It's not going to. I think I want to move as targets further down again. All right, let's go to the wider server room. We've held this offer about an hour and 45 minutes here. But it is officially time to talk through the dolphins, pass catchers. Here we have Malik Washington and Caleb Douglas tied forward the team lead at 43 targets, a piece at ETR. Gretchen has Malik Washington leading the team here at 52. Target's just insane that a team leader would be projected for 52 targets in the year 2026. And then 2-2 out well here is another veteran receiver. We have him at 26 targets. Gretchen's a little bit higher at 47. We have Jalen Tolbert, veteran wider receiver coming over from Dallas. We're at 26 targets. Gretchen at 39. And then Chris Bell. We have at 39 targets. Gretchen at 26. This is, for lack of a better phrase, we're throwing up our hands and saying that. We don't fully expect or know how this is going to go. And I think training camp will help us a lot in this regard. This is also another team we have a decent amount of unlisted target share. Again, just kind of-- we don't really know who's going to be on the field here. Because the bets they bring in Jalen Tolbert and 2-2 out well, we're both signed to 1 year, 1.4 million dollar deals, very low in the market. And then Malik Washington, who's like the incumbent wider receiver, has a career 0.86 yards per route run through 2 seasons. So I think it's pretty hard to get excited about anyone here. I almost just kind of want to open up the floor. And Jack, if you want to talk about anyone specifically in this wide receiver room, feel free. There's no one getting drafted at this point outside of Malik Washington, who were well behind ADP. But the rest of these guys are free. So you could take a stab if you felt confident in 1 over the other. Do you have any read or confidence in anyone in this wider receiver room? I don't really. And with Camp starting this week, it'll be interesting to see how it shakes out. Like you said, Malik Washington has been on the team the longest. He also has a 5.1 career 8 out at 5.8 and 195 pounds. He averaged 5 yards per target last year at 19% targets per route run. Caleb Douglas went in round 3, but he was widely expected to be a day 3 pick. I think it was a surprise to see him go that high. he wasn't an awesome college producer. We did run a 439 at 6309. The South Florida Sun Sentinels David Faronis per Roto world believed that Jalen Tollberg appeared to be one of Malik Willis's top targets in OTA's in Minicamp. Jalen Tollberg was also at least temporarily sideline and made a healthy and active in favor of Jonathan Mingo last year with the Cowboys. Chris Bell, I think, is clearly the most interesting as an actual pass catching option. But he's coming off in November. ACL Terry is going to miss the entire offseason program as a rookie. He's likely going to be sideline until mid season. He was a potential first or second round pick, I believe, before getting hurt. But given that late timeline for a rookie, I don't think that he's going to contribute much. As a rookie, Kevin Coleman Jr. is 179 pounds. He was a big time recruit coming out of high school. But 179 pounds slot receiver that got picked in the fifth round, 2-2 at well, was the Rams pass catching wide receiver 3 to start the year last year. With Jordan Wittington as the blocking wide receiver, he might have the most actual pedigree as a pass catcher in this room. But he also lost that pass catching wide receiver role to Xavier Smith down the stretch last year and really got faced out of the Rams offense. I mean, we have this not very concentrated, not even because we expect some insane rotational, although it could shake out that way. But largely, it's because we have no idea what to expect here. And it's pretty much, I guess, as opposed to a projection at this point in terms of who's really going to emerge. It's really wild. And Chris Bell is someone I've been taking shots on it, like the very last rounds of best ball just thinking he was the best prospect coming or incoming into this wide receiver room and lost some draft capital just based on the ACL injury. He suffered last year. I'm hoping that maybe he's healthy and playing down the stretch. But Gretchen and he leans our insights to help us out to parse through this wide receiver room here. Yeah, I mean, even that is annoying. Bell's probably the better prospect, but he's coming off in ACL. They're talking about kind of a slow rookie year for him. He was posting a really good final season. That was his best year. But it did take him till like his fourth year to really earn targets. He's not like a great prospect or anything. So I don't know that I want to like deal with a guy coming off in ACL in his rookie year when it's not a good pass environment. Jack went through a lot of the other ones. I'll say two to out well. To me, he's definitely too small to run enough routes as far as I'm concerned, but he does have his efficiency moments and has 10 at two. And he had a really good prospect pro, like a production profile out of college way back in the day. And he kind of always was able to like on a per out basis to make some plays. And there's going to be a play action shot offense. So that's part of why I ended up projecting him a little bit more is I mean, Jaylen Tolbert's bad. He had a chance to be the number two for Dallas before Pickens came to town. I'm not saying he should have been with Pickens as, but he did nothing. Nothing even close. Had a ton of route volume that year and was just poor. And yet his 1.10 yards per out run that year, which is really bad. It was actually a career high. All of his other like small route samples have been worse than that year. Malik Washington last year, perfect situation. Tyra Kill gets hurt and he's like the perfect fit for that. And he had weak efficiency. Didn't earn any downfield volume. Didn't rise to the great opportunity. He's got some good ball in hand, but like the offense is not worse for him. It's a downfield shot play offense. It's not it's similar to the stuff I was just concerned about with the quick passing game stuff for H and I don't think it works really well for Malik Washington. I mean, I have a 52 targets here to talk about like, yeah, I'm high. Like I didn't know I was going to wide a pie on him by project to come for 52 targets. I'll probably move it down. I think he'll get some carries like I had him for some carries. I don't really know. I think this is going to be a team that early in the year, you're going to see Malik Washington. You're going to see Jaylen Tolbert. You're going to see some two two. And then as the season progresses, you're going to see more Caleb Douglas, some more Kevin Coleman maybe. And then certainly later in the year when Chris Bell's healthy enough, he'll see more Chris Bell as well. And he's probably the best bet. But like again, like I don't even know if the rookies, especially because you have all three of them different profiles. They didn't get a nice mix of profiles here. Like Douglas being a little bit taller and a little bit more of a vertical player. Coleman being a little bit more of a ball in hand guy like Jack was talking about. But I just don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze on them, given the past volume and the uncertainty. And how I expect the total target total and pole to just kind of evolve over the course of the year. It's just not. I mean, whatever I'm putting in for a projection just seems like an absolute joke. It's going to be malleable. Play these guys off the waiver wire and redraft if you want to or don't, probably don't. Save yourself the headache. I think it's a great point that the utilization here among just which wider receivers are out there, I think is going to change a lot throughout the course of the season, probably a little bit more veteran laid in early on. And then as the season progresses, they probably lean a little bit more into the younger, you know, kind of unproven guys. Maybe you could get a couple spike weeks from two to out. Well, like throughout throughout the year, if they can hit on some deep shots, he certainly has kind of like the best, I guess, pedigree or profile of the vets as, you know, he's only 26 years old. He was a second round pick. He's got almost 180 career targets. So has it at least been like better than Jaylen Tolger and Emily Washington in that front, but hard to see him earning too much volume in this past game. And yeah, I kind of think this, this wider receiver room is just going to be like best known as a name, name those guys. And in a couple of years here, we're going to be like, remember when, remember when two to out well in Jaylen Tolger, we're, you know, starting for the Miami Dolphins. Right. And we won a 2026. I think it's just going to turn into that. And if you look down the rest of the roster, they have a bunch of other names here that feel we see at S Gridge, Taj Washington, they also have Terris Marshall and Jaylen Rager. I mean, anytime Terris Marshall and Jaylen Rager are getting shots on teams, you know, you know, they're desperate. So I think it's all I can hold on a nothing here for, for fantasy purposes. The one note is probably that if Caleb Douglas or Kevin Coleman is like a really good player in a way that's not shown up in their profile necessarily, or if Chris Bell can get healthy enough and shows that he is as well, there's nothing stopping them from, from wind up being like the, the second half clear number one. Like the past volume's still going to be a concern, but they could be the pretty clear number one in their rookie year. If you want to, I mean, that's probably like as I hear you talking about it again and heard everything jack saying like these veterans are bad, man. Like, yeah. And they're signed on the deal. So certain. Right. And the deals I signed are nothing. Like they'll get moved aside if like you said, if the, if these young rookie wide receivers show a pulse really. So I think that's fine. And they may be even like something like dynasty where they're probably just free because everyone's out on like the dolphins passing the IP just an interesting stash or something just to see if they can, they can show anything very, very limited opportunity cost for sure at this point in time. But everyone's going to be shouting at us, man, you guys are, you know, bearing the lead here Greg Dolchitch is, is the guy you want. And as a pass catcher in this offense, he's pretty much the only pass catcher within with a realistic ADP right now. He's going that around pick 178 on underdog. He's caught quite a bit of steam over the offseason as, as people, I think are looking at this wide receiver room and don't have a favorite target. And so they're like, well, we might as well just go to tie down here with Greg Dolchitch and he did have a pretty solid end of the, end of the season last year. And on a per-route basis, he had a 26% target per out run and 2.64 yards per out run according to SIS last year, 10.2 yards per target there. He was a third round pick in 2022. Never been, you know, like a good blocker, just primarily a pass catcher. You had a reasonable rookie season for the Broncos. He finished as the Titan 18 and half VP R points per game there in 2022. And he's going as the Titan 25 now. So obviously the pass volume is a concern in this offense, but Dolchitch theoretically should should be out there quite a bit. And, you know, we just went through the whole wide receiver room, how lackluster it is. So, so, you know, things could consolidate maybe on him. Jack, do you have much interest in Greg Joel Dolchitch's profile this year? I think that he could have a decent target share. We've been behind on Dolchitch allops season. And I think it's mostly a function of the offense as a whole in the, the, the depressed pass volume, rather than not expecting him to have a big role in the offense because I think given the state of the wide receiver room and given how much they've talked them up a lot of season. I think that he is going to have a pretty big role off the bat for them. It's just that in this offense, you have to really consolidate targets to be all that interesting. And I think that he can get us a solid target share given that he has never had more than 55 career targets in a season. He's only on a one year, $3.3 million deal. So, you mentioned that he had really strong numbers to close last year, 26% target per hour run and three games without Waller at the end of the year. He had 20% 90% and 16% target shares. So, he did earn targets last year without Waller, but despite that, he didn't draw a whole bunch of interest in free agency. So, we have him second on the team and targets behind H&N. I think that given what we've heard all off season to make sense to have him ahead of all of the wide receivers. But to be that relevant in this offense, you really have to have a high target share. And maybe I'm not giving him enough credit given the shares he did post to close the year, but given the what we've seen through him throughout his career, I'm not banging the table for him. I don't think he's terrible. We're very slightly below ADP. I think that's fair. But I, I, I question the ceiling unless he suddenly becomes this like monster target you got that we haven't seen from him yet. Yeah, I think the key would be that both you guys and me are projecting him to lead. I guess not lead the team because we both have a channel higher, but lead all the wide receivers and tight ends and targets and yet still only being like, I'm looking at my projection still be in a range of, like, like some of the highest tight and twos are close in my projections in terms of peer targets. Despite so I think people are like, yeah, he could be the wide receiver one. It's like, yeah, but you got to understand how low the pass volume is in this, in this offense. Dolseuch 2.31 yards per out run on 145 routes last year is great to see. I do think the offense probably elevated that. It's similar to everything else we're saying with the other guys and the way that two of plays and those things. Two is a quick accurate pastor in the short area. Dolseuch was doing a low eight out catching run stuff. I don't expect that to translate per out on way more routes. On April 1st, the GM John Eric Sullivan was asked which player he was excited for taking the leap between 26. He named Greg Dolseuch as his answer to that. That's great. The round two tight and they drafted will Kack Merak Kaz Merak whatever. He's a why tight end. He's a blocker. They called him a difference maker in the run game. He's not a guy that can't help you in the passing game. I just think his superpower is in line blocking is another quote from the team. They're basically telling you he's just a blocker. They drafted around five really athletic tight end as well. Not necessarily a great profile, but he may play more down the stretch as the receiving tight end though. If Dolseuch is not, I mean, Dolseuch is an intriguing profile. You know, once upon a time was a pretty good prospect, but he's had a long career now. I think it's tough to just assume he's going to play all season. There is a little bit of a veteran and young guy dynamic at tight end as well where he could get surpassed throughout the year. But even if you do project him for all the targets, it's not that exciting of a projection. It just to Jack's point, the ceiling. I mean, I don't know where the ceiling comes from. I mean, you have to you have to have a lot of efficient place. The play action shop plays got to hit long TVs. And even still you're like, I mean, what do we talk about Donkin K like running a three yards per out run on decent route volume and was like tight and 15, you know, I mean, I just I think that's like more or less the ceiling for Dolseuch in this offense. Health has also been a pretty big concern for for Dolseuch. He only played 10 games his rookie year and then was largely just like not really on, you know, or didn't have a consistent role in 2023 and in 2024. And then, you know, kind of has that little bit of resurgence down the stretch for for the dolphins last year. But I do think that's that's fair to question. Like if you can even withstand a full season, you know, I'm a little I remember being like rug pulled going going into a sophomore season thinking, oh man, just just get this guy healthy and then kind of like the past catching chops. He he showed as as a rookie. I thought we're exciting at the time. But I'm a little bit just more bearish on, you know, he's only only managed to play like 25 games in his NFL career at this through through four seasons. So it's I think a little bit tough for me to get there just given this team environment. All right, let's go to the good, the bad, the New York Jets here as our last team. Aaron Glenn remains the head coach here, but they did clear out a lot of the coaching staff eight assistant coaches have been fired since the start of 2025 here for the Jets, including both the defensive and offensive coordinator. So new offensive coordinator here is Frank Reich. He will also be the play caller of this offense his first time in the NFL since he was the head coach of the Panthers in 2023 where he was fired after 11 games when they started off one in 10. He has not been just an offensive coordinator since 2017, you know, he has been a head coach in the NFL during that stint. So almost a decade here between offensive coordinator stints for Frank Reich, very interesting hire for Aaron Glenn and the Jets. In terms of a team level projection, we're at 60.2 plays, Gretches at 60.6, we're at a 61.3% pass rate Gretch at 60.5%. So relatively similar there once again here on the Jets, which is nice to see, but Jack here's your thoughts on on the Jets here as a team level entering 2026. Yeah, I'm not super excited about the Reich hire. I honestly don't hold the last couple of years against them too much. I know we went fornate at Stanford. I know someone who bets college football very seriously and he's at the Stanford roster last year was like the words he'd ever seen in his entire life. So I think they win over their win total at, so get four wins and then in 2023 with Bryce Young having one of the worst rookie quarterback seasons we've ever seen. I don't hold 2024 and 2023 against Reich too much. What I do hold against them is the fact that he's coming back to the pro game that has changed very much in recent years and he's now 64 years old. I think we've kind of discussed throughout this series that the how much the NFL game and NFL offenses on the whole have changed and that the league is really trending toward younger head coaches and a lot of these guys who have been doing it one way for a while might not be at the same level that they're used to just because things have changed so much and now Reich is coming back after your off at 64 years old. We are pretty much in line on both play volume and pass rate but overall I think a lot of this offense is ceiling comes down to Gino Smith and how much he can get back to where he was with Seattle compared to where he was last year because the skill positions actually have a decent amount of talent. It just comes down to the coaching and the quarterback play. That was my takeaway as well is that I think they've addressed the depth at the skill positions pretty pretty well because last year there was none and I think it was funny after week one Jets offense like awesome people were victory lapping like Tanner angstrand and it was like a lot of optimism. I mean the team ended up being really bad but I do think it was a bit reaction because they waited like three weeks to fire him. I don't know I I had some questions about Aaron Glenn as well I guess last year he was talking about Justin Fields. He's talking about he brings us to mention the game that a lot of people are trying to create around the league that we can take advantage of referencing the dual threat nature of fields and then the trends kind of moved away from QB mobility being this huge additional cheat code for offenses and and towards the like dropback passer and the under center and a little bit a little bit more last year and processing and some of these things which I don't think athletic quarterbacks inherently can't process but I do think they get away with their athleticism at the lower levels more and so they don't to make the NFL as a non athletic quarterback you have to develop processing capability at every level in a way that I think just is going to on the whole make them a you know better and then and then the ways that the defenses are doing so much to disguise things anyway I thought Glenn was I thought it was an interesting quote last year and I was into it it turned out that he was sort of kind of the copycat we were talking about this as a copycat league and you you need to be influenced by other offenses that are doing things that are working but also innovative I'm bringing all this up because they drafted Sadeek this year in the first round and he had an outright quote where he said with Sadeek we're going to be able to dictate are you going to be in base are you going to be a nickel we've talked about the tight end stuff a time we've all stopped about how defenses are going to be trying to evolve to stop that I think I mean Sadeek was a good pick where they took him but they had just taken Mason Taylor last year as this mobile you know two-way tight end and they have a lot of needs and I think it's it's really interesting to look at some of these quotes and then I bring that up in the in reference to you you move on from angstrand on a on a first year OC what I just don't think it was his fault last year that the offense was what it was and you go bring in Frank Reich and that just looks very reactionary to me as well in terms of what you're doing and the decisions you're making and even the things you're talking about I think you're identifying what's happening in the league but I think you are the copycat instead or you're reacting and you're more reactionary these types of coaches tend to it's not said that the Glenn's like not a sharp coach because I think he is probably but I just think he's not probably innovating enough for or at the forefront of of and then that's not great in addition to the Frank Reich elements that Jack was talking about what he actually brings to an offense so I'm I'm concerned but they do have a lot a lot more talent. Yeah they're the juicer we have for the third lowest total TD projection in the league this season so certainly not expecting them to be you know a prolific offense by by any means just kind of like looking at the roster I do think their offensive line and skill group as you guys have alluded to it is pretty talented arm on bamboo was a huge hit for them as a first round tackle pick last year he had a great rookie season and we're still waiting on Brandon Thorns offensive line rankings that come out the jets are are one I'm curious to see where he's at because there has has been a decent amount of hype for them and some like the offseason content I've consumed up to this point in time but it's getting to Gino Smith brought in to play quarterback here for the jets he assigned to a one year three point three million dollar deal so not not a super meaningful deal there for a starting quarterback by any means and in the low three million dollar range there we have Gino Smith for only 90% of the team pass attempts just kind of baking in the risk that at some point throughout the season they go to either Kate Club Nick or Bailey Zappie I saw was the was the QB2 and training camp else I was Brady Cuck who got some run last year so we don't have a full again passing chair projection on Gino Smith so we're going to come in a bit below Gretchen in terms of raw numbers on Gino Smith but in terms of the yards per attempt we're also quite a bit lower we're at 6.6 on Gino and you know we kind of have him like undraftable in best ball just again given not not giving him the full full alignment of the passing chair it's you know very fair to say that that Gino season last year in in Vegas was was quite rough you know is that 6.8 yards per attempt he had an 11% sac rate and over and led the league in interceptions last year Gino Smith has run 52 interceptions over the last four seasons And so, you know, enters his age 36 year. I think it's tough to have like, you know, too much of a, of a Rosie outlook for Geno, but he did have a, you know, close to a seven and a half yards per cent in Seattle. And like, we're not too far removed from that. So maybe there is a little bit of a bounce back candidate, you know, upside here with, with Geno, but, um, Gresh Kieres, your thoughts on, on Geno Smith. We, again, we have them kind of undraftable. Is he, is he someone you would tack on? And best ball draft, you think you can help kind of elevate the floor of this Jets offense to again, I think we feel decent about the skill players just can, can the QB play be there to, to help them in fantasy? I think you broke down while I think the, the club nickname thing is, is tough. I ended up opting to just project Geno, but I had a note that, you know, because, because club nickname had kind of a tough last year in college. And, and they kind of talked about him having upside, feels more developmental, but maybe he's a late 2026 guy. Uh, but yeah, Geno was really bad last year. Efficiency fell while a Sacrate rose. Didn't even get off ariards in some games. He talked about what the Raiders, when we did that projection, they had a bunch of games where they didn't even have like a hundred ariards, because like Geno couldn't even, I mean, but their offensive line was really bad. This is a team that, there's optimism for this offensive line. They've added, um, to it, they've taken young first round picks for, for, um, both tackle spots over, uh, not the last two years. In 2024 and 2025, um, Foshanu and, and Membu and, um, they returned four starters. They added a free agent guard who played a ton for Vegas last year. I think like most of the ranks I saw had him like mid pack. Um, like if they're offensive lines better, if Geno is able to get some protection, because like, uh, better than what the Raiders were last year for Geno after some injuries there. Um, you know, one thing I do like about Geno is he doesn't lack confidence. Like he seems like a guy that will come in and think that he's going to be the best quarterback in the league and I'm like, I'm all about it. Like, let's, let's go try it out. I, he's also more of like a one reading, get the ball out kind of guy. And I do think that part of it is potentially the best thing that Garrett Wilson's had in his entire career. So I mean, I think it's a, a reasonable fit for, for Garrett. Let's go to the backfield first before we hit the wider severs. I do think Brie saw, you know, again, if this offensive line does, does kind of play up to expectations. Could have an interesting season here. He was also signed to a three year, 43 and a half million dollar deal. This offseason with, with 29 million guaranteed. Pretty big guarantee for, uh, the running back space and, and this, in this NFL market at this point in time. Um, in terms of inputs on Breast Hall, we're at 228 carries. Gratges at 240. We're at 55 targets. Gratges at 63 there. When looking at the backups, we have Braille and Allen. Well ahead in terms of opportunities. As those Gratges were at 73 carries there. Gratges at 68. We're at 31 carries on Isaiah Davis. Gratges at 59. So actually, uh, he has a little bit tighter on, on Braille and Allen. And Isaiah Davis, in terms of targets, we have 15 and a half on both Braille and Allen. And Isaiah Davis, Gratges Isaiah Davis ahead at 20 targets. And Braille and Allen at 12 there. So Jack, uh, Breast Hall is, you know, not, not cheap, not cheap at all of this season going at RB 14 right now. Currently 28 overall ADP on underdog. Any, any feel on Breast's outlook for this year and this Jets backfield. Yeah, I think Breast has proven himself to be a really, really good NFL running back. And I think that the judge rewarded him with the contract that gave him. I also think it's a little bit uncertain. Exactly how much he consolidates the work in this backfield. Aaron Glenn, this off season has referred to it as a, a three headed monster. He also said that that was the plan last year before the Braille, Braille and Allen injury. And we kind of saw that play out to start last year. And weeks one through four, he had under, uh, 64% design carry share. In each game, uh, the entire rest of the season, he only had under a 64% design carry share four times. Um, so same number of sub 64% design carry shares and weeks one through four versus the entire rest of the season. Um, I think Breast is a superior runner to Allen. Um, he's, they have similar yards after contact numbers, but Breast gets a lot more yards before contact. So I think that there's some possibility that Breast just completely, um, sends Allen to the, the shadow realm, uh, given the contract that he just got. But given the coach speak, it doesn't seem like that's. It doesn't seem like they are locked in on Breast getting 300 carries or anything. All of a sudden, I do think that if Breast were to go down, it would be kind of a muddy back to deal with Braille and likely getting the early down stuff. And Isaiah Davis on pass downs. Um, Davis has been really efficient rushing on very limited work throughout his career. I think part of that is that he gets a decent amount of his carries probably on third and long. Um, and Braille and Allen was out carrying, uh, Isaiah Davis 18 to five before he got hurt last year. So I think Allen is, is the early down backup and Davis is the past down backup, which kind of makes it not a great situation on not a great offense of Breast were to go down. We've been below ADP on Breast most of the offseason. I think part of that is that we still have like non zero work for both Braille and Allen and Isaiah Davis. I think that if off a contract extension Breast kind of makes either or both of them irrelevant, we are likely low on his volume and low on his projection, um, as a result, but that's kind of where we come in on the Jets backfield. Yeah, I'm concerned about it too. I think they like both the guys. Um, one of the things on the backups, I thought I'd be in on Braille and Allen a little bit more. He was really young as a rookie. Both these guys are a Gornini year three from not mistaken, but Isaiah Davis was, uh, is a little bit older. He turns, he's 24. He turns 25 in February. Braille is 22 until January. So there's like two full years younger, you know, they're the same age and a failure's because Braille and Allen played as like a 20 year old rookie. Um, and there's a lot of talk to Braille and I was put on a bunch of weight this offseason. I typically shy away from that, but when the guy's 22 years old, he's still, I mean, like if the guys were put on a bunch of weight before the combine, we would be pumped about it. And I mean, that's essentially where Braille and Allen should be if you look at it from the perspective of his age. Um, so anyway, I, I think Braille and Allen still growing into his body and adding weight in those things is maybe actually a little bit more defensible at his age. And yet the last couple of years, like Isaiah Davis is a vision, yards after contact per attempt breakaway rate, they've all been better than Braille and Allen's both years and solidly. Um, I think Isaiah Davis is like a pretty good backup running back as well. Braille and Allen gets a little bit more pub. Um, I, it's tough to, to figure out, but that's part of why I had a little bit more for Davis and I have the split a little closer. I have Allen for a few more rushes. I have Davis for a few more targets. He played a little more in the past game. If I'm not mistaken. Um, but no, I'm pretty into briefs. Breasts is targets per out run by season 27.5% 26.8% and then 19.5% the Nullivan out of 15.6 last year. The first couple of years showed some real clear intent in the past game. You're three. The routes were a career high. And so he still had, uh, that was a solid targets proud at 19.5% when he was approaching 400 total routes. Last year, the Jets basically didn't use him as a receiving weapon in the same way. I do think they want to move back that way. And Geno through to Ashen Gentie a lot last year, Rik's offenses, um, in the past have thrown to running backs. Some certainly so I'm, I don't know. I'm kind of back in on on breeze a little bit, uh, this year. But I do see some concern with the overall split with having some legit backup depth. I'm torn on breeze and I'm kind of surprised at how expensive he's gotten again. He's up towards like, you know, the front of the third round in terms of ADP, uh, this off season. And meanwhile, like Braille and Allen and Isaiah Davis are both cheap where his last year, Reese's, I think at the four, five turn, we were well at them, market on him last year and then Braille and Allen catching a ton of steam. I think Braille and Allen got up to like the 130s and an underdog ADP last year and, and, you know, kind of flamed out due to mostly due to injury. Uh, and then it's just, you know, essentially free this year. So I think it's an interesting dichotomy that people are, are all the way back in on breeze. I know there were contract and like trade concerns going into last year, which I think muted people's excitement as well as playing next to Justin Fields and maybe, you know, those concerns are alleviated. But I don't necessarily think it's like the cleanest run out here again for running back on the offense. We, we project the score, the third fewest, TDs in the league. It's not, I don't think the cleanest. I do think you, you definitely need like the past game role to come back big time for a recent and you can certainly see the pathway there with, which, you know, Smith and Grish, like you alluded to Frank, Frank, Frank, Frank, kind of featuring running backs throughout his career. But it hasn't, you know, it has been a guy, I think we've struggled to stay in line with ADP on so far this off season. Let's go to the wider receiver room headline by Garrett Wilson here. But they also have Adonai Mitchell and then draft Omar Cooper in the first round and then also draft another first round pass catcher and Kenyan said, "Deeke, he is, you know, let's say at tight end here, but we can kind of loop him in this conversation a little bit in terms of targets on Garrett Wilson. We're at 133 Grish is at 144 on AD Mitchell. We're at 73 Grish is at 82 and Omar Cooper. We're at 73 and Grish is at 82." So we're, we're both even on, on AD Mitchell and Cooper in terms of raw target numbers there and then have Garrett Wilson as, as the prohibitive wider receiver one here. And Jack, we've, we've been well ahead of market on Garrett Wilson. All off season has been, you know, a pretty heavily drafted player for me, heavily target player through his first four years of his career. And then, you know, does get Geno Swift back quarterback, which is probably the best quarterback he's played with, which is, you know, again, just still wild and say, entering, entering Wilson's fifth year. So what's your reason? on this Jet's wide-sever room. - Yeah, the Garrett projection, we have been high all off season. It feels a little bit uncomfortable. I think part of it, as we kind of talked about with the Browns in the AFC North podcast, is that the market does tend to double count some of these really bad offenses and how bad they're gonna be. I know that we just kind of said we're out on all the dolphins because of how bad they're gonna be. But that's largely a pass volume thing, not a, and partially a strength of the offense thing. But in a more normal looking offense that's expected to be bad, I think that the market sometimes tends to double count that. The target earning, I think, is interesting on where exactly to put Garrett. And I like seeing that Gretches kind of has the same gap of targets as we have on most of these high-end wide-sever ones because Garrelson has had really monster target shares. He had a 33% target share last year, 28% in 2023. He said, "Up above 0.26 targets per hour, "run into the last three years, "the year in which he didn't have that was in 2024 "when Rogers decided he wanted to throw to Devanta. "Adams all the time. "But this is more target competition "than we're used to seeing with Garrelson. "80 Mitchell has quietly also been a really strong target earner. "Often times in a partial role to be fair. "He had a 29% target per hour run in 2024, "26% with zero target competition "on the debts last year. "He hasn't been efficient. "Some of that is his own fault. "Some of that is his quarterbacks. "But he has earned targets with both the Colts "and the Jets and the reporting all-off season. "He's been that he's ahead of Omar Cooper. "Omar Cooper is still the first round pick "who you figure will be involved. "Similar production to Elijah Surat, "who we talked about in the FC North podcast "but the Ravens and who went a few rounds "a later than Cooper. "But Cooper has drawn some Deba Samuel Comps. "I think they like what he can do with the ball "in his hands and then they're after Kenyan Siddiq "as well, another first round tight end. "So this is all to say that Garrelson "is significantly more target competition "than we're used to seeing. "But with that being said, "he's just been a really consistent target earner "throughout his career. "And so we're kind of leaning into that instead of "giving a ton of credits to some of these first round picks "who in Cooper's case doesn't have the best statistical profile "from a production standpoint Siddiq. "We've seen first round tight ends come along "a little bit slowly and Siddiq is also coming off "and off season hernia procedure. "So he hasn't been available for much of the off season "and in an 80-mitchal we haven't really seen "the relevant for an entire season "despite the target earning and a limited sample. "So I have some concerns on Wilson "from a target share standpoint. "It's not like we're projecting them for the same target shares "that he's had in the past years "because we're aware that he has increased target competition. "But I do think the extent to which Sid target competition "impact sim is up for debate is he going to fall down "to a 25% target share or a 27% target share "because that makes a really big difference "on where you could take him in drafts. "And so it is reassuring to see Grouch kind of "in the same vicinity as us target wise. "I thought he worked out that down really well. "It does get back to his target earning ability. "His target's probably run strong again last year, "24% eight plus targets in all six of his healthy games last year. "He only ran two and 25 routes due to injury. "He ran at least 595 in his first three seasons. "He's basically been the clear number one at all points "other than that half season after they acquired "Davonte Adams and had Aaron Rogers. "He kind of took a back seat for a bit. "But he's pretty much out-earned and out-produced. Every other receiver that's been in this passing game now. Jack did a great job of break down. "How they have some much more interesting profiles. "On Adonai Mitchell, I guess they have some real concerns "with the efficiency. "It's not just like for me, it's. "The Colts last off season we're talking about "is down to down consistency, is blocking all those things. "Lot of people really in on the really high targets "parerat run on his rookie season "and saying like this is gonna expand into year two. "We wanna be in on efficient rookies going into year two. "And the Colts are basically telling you like, "Yeah, I mean, we wanted to throw him the ball "when everyone's out there, a great separation. "That's what he does. "But like, he can't catch the ball. "He can't block anyone. "He runs the wrong routes. "He does everything wrong." And they traded him mid-season. Like, they, they, he was a day-to-pick. They liked, like, and yet, and then we're using him and throwing to him a lot. Trade him mid-season. He got a bunch of volume with a Jets team that had nobody. As Jack mentioned, I do think the Jets see more interested in putting up with those inconsistencies than the Colts were and they were, they were running him a lot more routes. But like, to me, there's a bit of Deontay Johnson here where it's like, he runs a lot of routes. He earns a lot, oh, sorry, not necessarily running a lot of routes. He earns a lot of volume per route, but can't be efficient on it and seems to make everyone mad around it. Like, nobody seems to really actually like you to think else that he's doing other than the fact that he creates separation. And the fact that he's gotten good reports, like, he always gets good reports in paddlest practices. This guy creates separation. We know that about Adon, I'm Mitchell. We also know that he does literally nothing else. I mean, that's like, unfortunately, like, might be the reality about him. I, I did project him for 80 targets this year. Like, I think he's going to be, you know, pretty involved number two. But Omar Cooper looks like the upside play there as the secondary receivers to me. You mentioned the Debo comp, the good yak, 442 speed at 199. Good vertical, strong hands, they like his blocking. There's all this like ball in hand and like, he can be out there, he can block, he can do all these things. He's supposed to be the rookie, but like, they're gonna, they seem like they want to trust him for some of the other stuff right away that maybe Adon and Mitchell can grow into in year three, but the colds especially didn't like in his two years and eventually traded him, but he said, now, I mean, that was part of a deal to acquire. It's a source gardener, right? I have to be, you know, fair, you know, with the way that I'm breaking that down. But I do think Omar Cooper looks like a pretty intriguing player from an athleticism and style, fit, perspective, although not a huge prospect profile, as Jack said, I mean, Serat was not just comparable last year, but a meaningfully better producer than him the year prior. To me, Serat in some ways looks like the better player, just not as athletic and then maybe the NFL wasn't looking at the think, like the production side of the receiving profiles, we know that they tend to overdraft sometimes the athleticism side, although I'm not trying to say that Cooper's a bad prospect, I think he's good as well, but there, I think there's some real concerns with Cooper as far as like being an alpha when he was essentially outproduced over the last two years on his own team by a guy who wound up going in whatever it was around four. But Garrett Wilson, yeah, I mean, very clear alpha target owner to me seems to be a guy that I think will be strong. I Cooper did earn volume in college as well, I should say, but Sedique not so much didn't play a thund. Sedique's just like, I mean, Sedique said another world, but we can, what are your thoughts on the receivers mark? Well, yeah, just just a couple of notes on 80 Mitchel's specifically, I mean, he has a 43% catch rate in his career to this point. That's just not, that's just not going to get you very far. And, you know, the Colts, the Colts gave him that last shot with in that Rams game. Remember, we had that unbelievable catch and run, and then he dropped the ball right before the end zone. And I think I think it ended up for a touchbacker that ran, you know, anyway, it turned from a from a Colts like super long, unbelievable touchdown by 80 Mitchell to a turnover. And then in that game, he played, he played 89% of the snaps, the following week, he played 9% and then 8%. Like after that mistake, you know, the Colts were done with them. And then they traded and like you mentioned, like he, he just continues to make boneheaded decisions slash slash mistakes. I think the year prior to he had like a holding call and opposite the field that really hampered one of their big plays. Like it kind of like you mentioned, Gretz, he just struggles to get out of his own way a little bit despite the target earning and separation skills being there. You know, maybe the opportunity could could continue to present itself in in New York, but given that the fact that they spent two first round picks on on past catchers in Omar Cooper and Ken Yanzidee, like I don't think it's like the longest runway you've ever seen there. And then Cooper is, it's just I think like the cheapest, you know, round one wide receiver right now going that pick 144 on underdog wide receiver 59. I think it is a pretty, pretty exciting price just to take a stab on a guy who had a very prolific, you know, final season in college. And he did move to the slot. He was 80% slot last year in his in the year prior. He was playing more outside and I think that's where the production, you know, suffered a little bit. So he probably be I think mostly slot only to start just with 80 Mitchell and Garibaults and more so outside. But they're at least, you know, some of the like the analysts I was reading lands your line and Matt Harman were saying, you know, they do think that Omar Cooper could could play outside in the NFL. It's not like he's going to be a, you know, slot reliant player only. So yeah, let's talk about Sadik though. He is he is coming off her in surgery. So he missed many camp. He should be good to go by training camp, but you know, made waves at the combine by running a 439 40 yard dash fastest ever by a tie dance. So curious. Yeah, Gretchen. If if you feel feel decent about him as a prospect, he's been someone that I'm surprised like how cheap he is and in best ball drafts just given the, you know, mid first round draft capital and then the, you know, very exciting athletic profile is going as a Titan 21 right now. We're a little bit ahead of 80 p at Titan 19. Gretchen, what are your thoughts on on Sadik here? Yeah, I mean, I'd probably just start by saying I want to emphasize how good of an athlete this guy is. I mean, he ran a 439 40. He's under size for a tight end. He's 63241 like that's football size. Even though let's undersize for a tight end. He's six foot three inches, 241 pounds, and we're in a 439. He jumped 43.5 vertical over 11 feet broad. He's a freak athlete. Like this is one of the greatest athletes in the league from day one. Like immediately, he's super young. He's age 21 until next March. He didn't have a huge production profile in college, although he played only at young ages and then it wasn't early to Claire. He only ran 519 routes total in college. The bulk of that came in the final season. The yards per out run that last year, just OK. For college 1.62, I mean, it's not bad or anything for a tight end in college. Like tight ends don't tend to be super productive in college. 19.4% targets per out, 8.4 yards per target. It's good. It's maybe not great. He's more of a projection as a very young rookie who won't turn 22 until next March. They also have emphasized his blocking along with his past catching. They're giving you all this, like everything you want to hear about him, which you would expect with the size speed and the athleticism. That's one of the things with some of these blocking tight ends when talking about that CAC Mirac guy from Miami. He's a good athlete. Even the blocking tight ends need to be good athletes to be able to block the ends and stuff. Well, this dude's a great athlete. Ken Yen-Sidig's a great athlete. His great athlete in the past game is a great athlete as a blocker. He's going to be on the field. I'm a little concerned that Freakwright's teams always use multiple tight ends to kind of split routes with the Colts for years. And he did that with the Panthers as well. I'm also concerned that Mason Taylor looked like he had a decent rookie year and pre-draft. They were hyped on him. They were talking about him taking a step forward. He actually led the team in targets and receptions last year with Wilson getting hurt and Mitchell only playing half the year. They both went up in the high fifties for targets. But Taylor had 65 targets in 13 games last year to lead this team. Decent 17.6% targets per out for a tight end. Had a low yards per target, which pushed his yards per out run down. But him also running 353 routes is a rookie was probably pretty decent signal I thought in my pre-draft field tippers piece. I thought he's like he's young enough year to improvement with something to look for. And then they go and draft Sadik who I just think Sadik is just the far superior profile and upside bet. But the fact that Taylor is still an interesting year to tight end and Sadik's a very young tight end might make it difficult for Sadik to do everything you'd want right away in your one at the same time. Like he's going so late and he's way more intriguing from an athleticism standpoint than his ADP. Like I definitely like taking some shots on Ken and Sadik. He's fun. Yeah. You could say that the offseason surgery in Missy Manning Campus is also like a little bit of red flag just in terms of getting on the field. When you do a Mason Taylor ahead of him. But I think the long term prospects here are pretty strong. Jack and I guess I neglected to mention our inputs here on Kenyan City Gret 68 targets Gretches at 61 on Mason Taylor. We're at 42 and Gretches at 36. So I think we're just a little bit higher on the tight end. Tarket share here overall. Jack, but any thoughts on this tight end room? Yeah, I'll just add a couple of things on Sadik. His production was muted early in his career. But he was behind Terrence Ferguson. So I think that you can excuse that a little bit. And he also had two kickoff returns in college, which you don't really see out of a tight end position. So that's certainly a unique profile. And just something that kind of came to my mind hearing Gretches talk about the Mason Taylor stuff. And along with what he said about the Jets potentially being the copycat in a copycat league is that the Jets were fifth in 11 personnel rate last year near the bottom of the league in both 12 and then they ran 0 13 personnel last year. So that's the big trend and talking point of the offseason. So if we think the Jets are the copycat instead of the innovator, which they certainly seem to be, we could see this Sadik being kind of a response to what we saw last year in the Jets wanting to play more multi-tight end stuff because they saw that work last year. And so the Sadik investment could signal that they want to get both Sadik and Mason Taylor on the field. There are different types of tight end with Taylor probably being more of like the do it all tight end. His thing coming out of college was more of like a jack of all trades master of none type of flair than Sadik is the athletic freak with the pass catching upside who can block a little bit, but certainly more of a pass catcher. So that just kind of got me thinking, given the copycat stuff we talked about when we were discussing the team level stuff. But yeah, I think Sadik is an interesting upside play simply because of the capital invested and the athletic growth. Love it. All right, that will do it for episode seven of this divisional projection series only one more to go fellas. Thanks again to Jack and Gretz for all the great insight. Be sure to find them on Twitter at Jack Miller 0-2 and at Yards for Gretz. I'm on there at Mark Dank. Appreciate everyone tuning in with us. We'll be back next for our final episode breaking down the NSE East. Have a great day, everybody. And peace out. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING]