ETE Projections Special Part 6: AFC North with Ben Gretch

[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to another edition of the Savage Cedge podcast. I'm your host Mark Dankering. We'll be joined today by the projections crew. You know and love Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. Jack and I are part of the projections team here at Savage Run entering our fourth year together. While Gretches are honored guests throughout this series, you can listen to his podcast. He and Ben Annas will Sean Seagull as well as find his work at banggretch.substac.com. We'll continue to go division by division through the NFL breaking down our season long projections for each team across the league today. And today is episode six featuring the AFC North Gretch. How's it going today? Good. Yeah. We were pretty stoked at the beginning of the NFC North Pod. Really fun division. It's kind of an imbalanced year for the different divisions. Like there's some divisions that are super fun. And this one has the Steelers and the Brands. Lots of lots of turnover in this division as well. Three new head coaches, meanwhile bangles running it back. But Jack, you excited breakdown AFC North? Not as excited as I was yesterday. Echoing with Gretch, the Whiplash going from NFC North to AFC North is is pretty fierce. But you know, we're here and I'm excited to break it down with you guys. Yeah, always always some valuable stuff to to on earth here. And we are going to start in Pittsburgh where the Steelers bring in Mike McCarthy to be the head coach. He reunites with Aaron Rogers. Pretty pretty interesting stuff. We got Mike McCarthy and Todd Monkin as new head coaches in this division. And then Jesse Menter, you know, is kind of like a young up and comeer as well. So to tune, I guess, you know, new but old head coaches here. One being in Pittsburgh with Mike McCarthy. Obviously, you know, I had some time in Green Bay with Aaron Rogers. And we're starting with the Steelers because at ETR, we've been well above market on a lot of Steelers players this off season. So honestly, I wanted to jump right in and kind of discuss our viewpoints and compare with Gretch. And just see kind of, you know, if we feel confident in that coming, coming out of this show as well. It's a spot we spent a lot of time on already this postseason. On a team level standpoint here for the Steelers, we're at 60.2 plays. Gretch is at 60.5 and then we're at a 61.1% pass rate. Gretch is at 61%. So essentially in lockstep there on the team level inputs. That 60.2 plays for game right now ranks 30th in the NFL. For us last year, they finished 27th. And then our pass rate 61.1% is the 12th highest projection we have across the league. So Jack, you know, I mentioned we've spent a lot of time kind of on the Steelers so far. This off season, what you read on Mike McCarthy at the helm here reuniting with Aaron Rogers. Yeah, so like you said, we've been high on the Steelers all off season, but I don't think it's because we're particularly aggressive on the actual Steelers and puts I think it's just the market is really negative on them. We have them for the second fewest real-place per game that excludes bikes and yield downs. Last year they had the fifth fewest. We have them 12th and dropback rate. Last year they were 12th and dropback rate. And we have them with the seventh fewest offensive touchdowns per game, which is in line with their expectation in the betting markets right now. So I think that our Steelers' inputs are pretty reasonable and it's good to see Gretz. I mean, we are pretty much right in line. I mean, we're 0.3 plays per game off. 0.1% pass rate off. I assume that's basically as close as we're going to be on any team from a team-level standpoint throughout this whole series. But yeah, I want to echo that our pro-Steeler stance and our rankings I think is more reflection of where the market is and how negatively the market is doing them as opposed to us being actually bullish on the Steelers' offense. Yeah, I think it probably comes back to Aaron Rogers. You know, Ennery and his age 43 season here. So hard to have. I think too much confidence on an age 43 quarterback here, Gretz. What's your what's your overarching view on on the Steelers in Mike McArthian's town here? Yeah, I mean, it's a concerning offense from like a macro perspective. When you work through the projections and you know, I'm sort of looking at it from a bigger like health perspective or like a bit like this is I think things are going to go well for this offense. I think it's easy to see how things could go poorly if Rogers is injured or is not, you know, playing particularly well. We've got a lot of young quarterbacks behind him. Things could go a little bit tricky. But in terms of just like, I think a lot of a lot was made about last year. Rogers getting the ball out really quickly and underneath and not throwing down field. There was like a narrative over multiple weeks about how long it had been since they had completed a 20 yard pass for like a decent stretch of the season like six weeks or something like that. That I was just reminded of when I was going through some of my signals writing, but they they did eventually complete a 20 yard pass. But at the same time like against defenses that are trying to drop back into cover two shells and all these things. There were some, I mean, I don't know. I've heard some takes on that that are basically like Rogers is so bad that the offense is like, you know, non-functional. I don't really believe that or agree with that. I guess the running backs were the big winners in the passing game last year. They both had really good yards per out runs. They both were actually really efficient as receiving weapons. Metcalf had a career low a dot as well, but some of the catch and run stuff they started doing with him worked okay. Some of the like Rogers will give you a look and you'll run a quick slant and I'll throw it to you. They seem to have some of that and Metcalf had some of those kinds of plays. Now they bring in Michael Pittman. They get rid of Arthur Smith, who's offence is, you know, always going to be a little bit weird basically. Thormund did a great breakdown in the in his pace column for the season and noted that Smith, Arthur Smith actually kind of likes tempo a little bit, but it didn't really matter for play volume because of Rogers. And so if you're thinking, you know, McCarthy might be good because he's had some tempo in Dallas. Thormund's also always pointed out that deck press got really the one that drives the tempo and Dallas. And so you're going to get Rogers slowing things down. You're going to get a low a dot. You're going to get some boring stuff. I don't think they're going to be good or anything. I also think like the way he played quarterback last year, like it wasn't great, but it probably was like, I mean, it can be worse. We saw some situations where it was worse around the NFL. Maybe only like five, but there's a fear that it could be worse. Well, that's a spot I'm interested to talk through because last year, you know, the Pittsburgh and Roger specifically, he targeted running back to the second highest rate in the NFL. And with the year prior with the Jets, you know, it wasn't quite that high. Like he had more targets to the wider sievers. And now you inject a little bit more wider siever talent into this team. You bring you trade and then sign extension with Michael Pittman, you draft Jeremy Bernard in the second round. You also lose John who Smith from that tight end room and not that John who Smith was a was a huge volume receiver last year. But you know, you are kind of replacing some some tight end targets with some natural wider siever targets there. And then you bring in Rico Dada who's receiving profile is decent, but you know, not quite like the Kenneth Gainwell level who who as I think shown or last year that he is one of the, you know, better receiving backs in the NFL. And Jalen Warren will continue that. But I think things will kind of even out a little bit in terms of like the target distribution among positions this year. Yeah, I mean, certainly potentially. I'm projecting a decent running back target rate again. The Rogers running backs throughout his career have always been strong. I do I look at the team high value touches as one stat, which is receptions plus carries inside the 10-yard line, which that side of it is not as relevant here. But they were second in team high value touches last year. There were six running backs over 85 targets last year that and then genty had 73 and then no one else over 60. So it's kind of like the top tier of running back receiving volume. The top five and genty all have really strong 80 pieces here. The other guy that was at 85 plus was was gain well. And obviously he's not with the raw with the team anymore. But this is the one spot where the running back targets from last year are not priced in at all. I mean, because behind him, Jalen Warren saw out 45 more targets. Like when we did the Rams, I'll say about how they don't throw the the backs a lot. Kyron gets like all of their receiving. He's their lead guy. He had like, I think 51 last year. So like that's that's the RB1 and one passing game getting most of their targets in this passing game. That's the guy getting half as much as as his teammate, right? I mean, that you had 130 something targets to the running backs in this passing game. It's a it's a huge vacated running back receiving role that I think is not priced in for PPR with gain well leaving either Warren's got to go up or Dattles going to get a bunch. She's got the the mic McCarthy tie in there. I'm actually projecting kind of a lot of targets still to the running backs this year. For sure. I think we should go to the running backs right away here. You know, Rogers last year was was QBA 28 and fantasy points per game. So not not really a single QB league target by any means. You know, maybe the back end of super flex leagues and best ball. You can obviously use them as a stacking partner. But I do think it's just, you know, more more interesting to talk about his his past catchers and in the skill group here. And and they do bring in Rico Dattles. Signed him to a two year 12.25 million dollar contract. He's got five million guaranteed. And then I was comparing that contract to Jalen Warren. They're essentially the same. Jalen Warren is also on a two year 12 million dollar deal. He's got seven mil guaranteed. So a couple more million guaranteed. But you do have the aspect that, you know, McCarthy had Rico Dattles as his his starting running back in 2024 and Dallas. And then, you know, his first year in Pittsburgh does sign him and it's a good thing. And Jalen Warren, I think the knock on him prior to last season was he had never really handled much of a rushing workload. And so I was very interested to see where we came in on on inputs here. And we actually kind of have it pretty flipped in terms of rush attempts on Jalen Warren. We're at 145, Gretches at 184. And then on Rico Dattle, we're at 181 and Gretches at 147. So essentially the inverse there. Gretches did mention a lot more running back targets here. And he does have that. We're at 54 on Jalen Warren. Gretches at 62. He's also at 62 on Rico Dattle. And we're only at 38 targets on Rico Dattle. So pretty interesting split there, Jack. I think this is kind of a tough one to diagnose again because Jalen Warren had only topped out at 150 carries in his career prior to last season. And then again, kind of gain well, it was just such an elite pass catcher. That was his role. And I kind of think this year it could end up being flipped a little bit. So we have more carries for Dattle and then more targets for Warren. I'm curious how you see this duo breaking down. Yeah, I think you've got two running backs here who can do things in both facets. I think the decision to bring in Rico Dattle and why we have Dattle ahead of Warren and carries. I think the decision to bring in Rico shows that they want him in that role because of the familiarity with McCarthy. They signed him on the very first day. The free agency was open. He has 235 carries and essentially 1,075 yards in back to back seasons. He was good in Carolina. It was a it was a weird year last year for Dattle where he had that monster stretch in the middle of the season. His full season numbers are good. 4.6 yards per carry plus 0.63 restaurants over expectation for a temp. But in the playoff game, they did go back to Chuba Hubbard a little bit more. I think that in signing Dattle and clearly prioritizing him because they signed him right away in free agency, I think that to me signals they want him as their lead ball carrier. That's not to say Warren won't get carries. I think that it's going to be a committee as both a runner and a receiver and they're both going to get chances to do both. But we've seen Warren before in that complimentary pass down role. He did that for years with Najee Harris and I think that in signing Dattle, they kind of signal they want to go back to Warren in that pass down role. So that's kind of why we have Dattle ahead at the moment, but I think both are capable black. If there's an injury to the other one, I think both of them would slide pretty seamlessly into a pretty legit three down role. That's pretty interesting takeaway. I definitely don't just like reject that. I didn't really know how to approach this. The fact that they brought in Dattle so quickly, definitely notable to me. One of the things that we'll play in, especially as we go to wider see for is I do think Rogers dictates a little bit of the skill position usage from the teams that he's quarterbacked the last few years and obviously has the relationship with McCarthy and McCarthy would have known that coming in. And I think they hired McCarthy in part because I didn't want to get Rogers back this year and all those things kind of tied together. And Rogers has kind of been clear like he's going to only play for teams or he has some say and some power. I don't think, I mean, I don't know anything about what he would might think about Dattle, but I do think he seemed to enjoy playing with Jaylen Warren last year to a degree. And so the fact that Warren has the familiarity there was part of why I was thinking a little bit of the leg and was the lead rusher last year and an effective rusher. But Dattle has been an efficient rusher the last few years as well. But one of the things with the like McCarthy Dattle thing that I mean, maybe I'm not seeing as strongly as you guys. Like he definitely likes Dattle. He's talked about like they, you know, he's been a part of Dattle story. McCarthy was a head coach in Dallas from 2020 to 2024. Dattle was on that roster from 2020 to 2023 and got nothing. And then finally had the 2024 season. I mean, so he was his player for five years and McCarthy finally used him the fifth year. I mean, famously, Dattle has been really good the last two years after being a special teams guy for several years. It's a very abnormal progression. But I don't think like, I mean, I think he knows the system and all of that stuff, but I don't think it holds a ton of water to be like, Mike McCarthy loves this guy because I mean, he basically took forever to use him in any kind of a real way. So definitely get knows the system brings him in. I think Dattle is going to play a ton. I think a Jalen Warren is one of the more talented runners in the league. His evasion rates have always been really strong. He's like Miss tackles force per toucher, like half of Jalen Warren's over the last couple of years. Or last year, especially. But Dattle still has relatively similar like yards per carry figures. Like he gets downhill and he still, you know, still gets stuff done, even though he's not necessarily like a vading a bunch of tackles. Warren is maybe a little more of like a scape back as a vading tackles, but not necessarily doing it. Although, I mean, Warren's not a small back, but he's not necessarily doing as much as you would love with all that evasion. Well, I don't know. It's just kind of weird because different backs get their different ways. But he has some, like you go back a couple years with Warren. He had like a massive evasion rates back in like 2023. And he did have a 5.2 yards per carry that year. It's been lower the last couple of years, 4.2, 4.5. But he's always been an efficient rusher. But Dattle has been at 4.6 the last two years, which is also a good, efficient, you know, rushing number. When McCarthy's talked about him, he said, I love the Dattle and Warren's play styles emulate each other. He's talked about him as interchangeable three down guys. I, yeah, I kind of lean toward like, Dattle has been good in the past protection stuff. And that's sort of where he started getting the role with McCarthy. And Warren wasn't doing as much because again, well, last year, I don't know. I think it's a very interesting take to you guys have that, um, it'll kind of flip this year. Uh, but I guess I was looking at it more from the perspective of like how Warren was used alongside Rogers last year. Then maybe Dattle would do a little more in the receiving side. So I haven't for the same amount of targets, but I have Warren for more rushes and sort of them more valuable overall role. You guys have them pretty much dead even in terms of like fantasy points, but we do have the lead rusher for sure. And that's what I was going to say is I think we like both both of these backs and and fantasy as targets, you know, in terms of just how we have it distributed right now. We slightly lean Warren and PPR formats and then Rico and half PPR formats. Again, just kind of how we have the touches distributed there. But I'm not necessarily like married to that to that split. You know, I do think there could be reports or just more enlightenment on how how McCarthy and Rogers plan to use these backs throughout the season. But I do think both are are pretty solid targets, both on, you know, they should get they should get work on the ground. And they've they've both shown to be like prolific or you know, at least above average pass catchers as well. So they're and they're great prices. I think that's a great way of putting it. I mean, I think it seems pretty likely to me as long as Rogers is like it hurt right away early in the year that one or both of these guys are going to be pretty good values at these ADPs were I mean, especially in PPR like full PPR. And I'm not trying to downplay the McCarthy Rico thing either like get a 1300 yard season, you know, with them just a couple of years ago. Like there's familiarity there for sure. And I like the way you put it. It really doesn't matter how this splits. I think we like both guys and we think there's a lot of value here. For sure. And and market is a little bit flipped on us. Jaylen Warren at least on underdog is going around a head around ahead of Rico. Dotto meanwhile, we have Rico. Dotto ranked about five spots ahead of Jaylen Warren and that half PPR were met on underdog. But then you know, looking at like FFPC redraft rankings. Jaylen Warren, we have six spots ahead and we're still, you know, above above ADP on both guys there. So again, I think both are pretty pretty solid targets. You don't necessarily have to have to, you know, pull our hair out over the exact split between the two. I think they're both probably solid targets at this point in time. And the Steelers offensive line is supposed to be, you know, a solid unit this year as well. I am pretty eager to see where we're Brandon Thorn ends up ranking them. But I always say on past down specifically. And part of the reason we have worn a good amount ahead in targets is last year in Carolina, it was mostly always two. But however, getting the past downs and then I'm pretty sure two years ago in Dallas, Rico still had a decent target. I'm not sure yet an 8.2% target share, but I remember Hunter Leppke the full back getting a good amount of the actual like clear third and long situations there. And that's something we've seen. Warren get in the past when Najee Harris was on the team. So I was kind of thinking, I mean, like you guys have said, in the end, it won't matter all that much because Roger says they're running backs a bunch. They're both going to play a bunch. But I was thinking more that Warren would likely get the actual like third and long two minute drill stuff. That's interesting. I do think it's worth mentioning Caleb Johnson is still a part of this backfield. He was a third round pick last year and it might not be, but people are probably out there thinking that we're in the weeds here. But he hardly played it all last year. It was one of like fantasy's biggest busts. I think he was going to like the seventh eighth round. Most of draft season last year and hardly played at all. It seemingly didn't touch the ball. But it is a new coaching staff. I think maybe something to keep an eye on, but considering they signed Rico and Warren is a good back. I don't think it's really his worth factoring in. Drafted Eli Hayden-Rike or however you say it from Navy, right? The does a little bit of do everything, plays some running back, plays some receiver. For me with Caleb, it's like you barely played last year. Now you have some frankly probably a little bit of competition for RB through you. You're not locked into that role. Here's the potential that he grows into something. Draft capital, like type of prospect profile. At least that's a Russia. But I go back to the Rogers thing. I don't I mean, he had some drops last year. He made some special teams he has in the Seattle game. They got back into a game and he just didn't feel the kickoff. and Seattle fell on it. They were, I think they were down three and Seattle got, uh, had scored and taken the lead and then got a touchdown on the kickoff and went up 10. And that was just it for that game. And it was like a key point in their season. It was like week six or seven or something. Um, for sure. And Mike Tomlin pretty, pretty much like, uh, shadow bands, uh, uh, and I think Rogers is not going to like, not, I mean, Rogers, you don't ever get out of Rogers's doghouse. Like Caleb Johnson. Good luck. Dude, next year when Rogers is finally retired. All right, let's go to the wide receiver room here. DK Maccalf, uh, still the wide receiver one, you know, in name, I think, but Michael Pittman is, is traded for a six and seven thrombick. And then again, signing extension here with the sealers. They do draft Jeremy Bernard in the, in the second rounds in Jeremy Bernard and, and DK Maccalf have been like the two. We've been highest above market at, at this point of the summer. So I was interested to see where we came in on this kind of trio of wide receivers on DK Maccalf, we're at 102 targets, Gretches at 109, Michael Pittman, we're at 100 targets, Gretches at 114. And on Jeremy Bernard, we're at 62 targets, Gretches at 43. So quite a bit behind us in that department, which I have to say, I don't, don't love off the cuff here because that's certainly been one of our bigger stands, uh, towards the end of best ball address specifically is being high on, on Jeremy Bernard. And I, I think this comes back a little bit to the personnel discussion in, in Pittsburgh last year on the sealers were 25th in terms of 11 personnel usage when McCarthy was in Dallas, at least, uh, his last three seasons in Dallas, they finish a let, they finished 10th, 22nd and 19th and 11 personnel usage. So a little bit better, you know, one, one year up at 10th, but mostly kind of like middle of the road there. So I do think 11 personnel usage will take up a little bit here, mentioned John who Smith out of the picture as well. And then just kind of investing more in the wider receivers. So, you know, but we still, we still maybe high there, um, a little bit. And then one discussion we've also had Jack is, is who to project for more target DK Mac F or Michael Pittman and, and Gretch actually comes in a little bit higher on Pittman. So curious, Jack, your thoughts initially on, on kind of this wide receiver room before we kick it over to Gretch. Yeah, the, the DK versus Pittman one is not one that I have a super strong kick on from a target standpoint. We have them 0.5% target share ahead. We've been high on DK all off season. He had a 21.1% target share last year, we're at 19%. We have Pim in at 18.5% right now. I think if we, I'm not super opposed to flipping that 0.5% from Mac F, from, from Mac F to Pim in and putting Pim in ahead. I know Silva thinks Pim in will also lead the team in targets. And regardless, we're going to come out high on Mac F. I think the Jeremy one is more interesting because a lot of our target share projections for rookies is based on draft capital. So we just, and then, you know, some, some level of adjustment for the level of prospect for the type of target competition on the team. We do have Pat Friar, Muth and Darnel Washington here. They just extended Darnel Washington. So I think despite McCarthy coming in, you're still going to see a lot of 12 personnel here. But 5 or 2 of being a second-round pick, we have Jeremy as the very clear wide receiver three here over guys like Roman Wilson. And so we have him for a decent target share. We have his ceiling muted relative to other second-round rookies because of the team situation that he falls in. But I am curious to hear Kretz's Jeremy Bernard take because he's, you know, a little more in the weeds on the prospect stuff than us. And we are quite high on Jeremy at the moment. Well, I mean, I actually, I think he's an interesting guy. I mean, really good ball and hand guy, yak, evasion stuff is all really nice. I mean, the overall production profile is probably just okay. Some of this to me is again, like Aaron Rogers, like I'm probably overstating it, but he just doesn't seem to like rookies, like at all. There's a like, Ben along. I'm thinking back to I guess like, I mean, maybe I'm Ari Rogers just sucked, but like I'm Ari Rogers in Green Bay and then there has been other dudes. I don't know, they're not all coming to mind, but it's been a long-term trend for Rogers. I think Bernard's interesting, but you hit on it as well. It's the 11 person or 12 person thing probably for me. I have a couple more targets for the tight ends, decently more on Friar Mooth and then also a couple more on Darnel Washington. Even though they lost John, I think Washington's basically like a starter for them. McCarthy loves them, has talked them up all off. He's called them a complete Y-Tight End, but I'm also like pretty high on Pat Friar Mooth. I don't mean to just jump over the tight ends, but he just had consistently huge catch rates, consistently huge depth adjusted racers, which I use for my efficiency stuff, but like his yards per target have been good as a result. Really good touchdown rates. Decent Yac even. I mean, there's like a legitimately good tight end. It's just a little bit more around to pick, was good in college at Penn State. It just has been in some weird situations. Arthur Smith does so much weird stuff the last few years has been weird. The dealers have not always had great passing games and then you have Darnel Washington there. But to me, it feels a lot like Friar Mooth, Washington, Pittman, Metcalf is the type of four man, you know, Y-T-Severan tight end build that you'd really like. And so I'm seeing Friar Mooth as sort of the Y-T-Sever three in some respects with Washington. You mentioned the O-Line. There's mixed opinions on the O-Line. I mean, I'm optimistic as well, but I think keeping Darnel Washington on the field is like, MacArthur's talked about it as like a sixth alignment. Like you don't have that type of tight end anymore. And then, you know, Friar Mooth can also block. He's a legit every down like tight end that could do everything that's always been the scouting report on him, but obviously a very good receiver. And so anyway, I'm seeing a lot of 12. They also talked about a fullback being on the roster and whoever they drafted, Riley Noah Kowski. So I'm seeing like those as, you know, potentially not three wide receiver formations whenever they get a second running back on, maybe do some two tight end, maybe do some 22 personnel, two tight ends, two running backs. So I, for me with Bernard, it's just a question of, okay, he's a rookie. How quickly is Roger's going to be okay with him? How much are they going to actually get into three wide receiver sets and get this rookie on the field? I do think he's an intriguing dude. The ball and hand stuff is intriguing. I actually like mine a note. I have him for 12 rush attempts. You guys have him for 3.9. Like I think they're going to do some gadget stuff with him and give him, you know, some carries. That's obviously not a big gap, but I think they'll find ways to get up the scheme. They'll all do his hand, but I basically don't think they're going to use enough of the 11 personnel in the format. And he's just not going to get on at 12. Like it's going to be mech half and pitman. You have two veterans. Yeah. That's totally fair. And you're also higher on the running back targets as well, just, you know, and overall. So I think it's just a spot where we're probably just a little bit higher on the wide receiver three and that could, you know, as flowed to Bernard specifically. But I wouldn't mind, you know, after talking through it, probably, probably docking him a little bit. I will say like in terms of the, the Roger's not loving rookies. Like on Bernarda, I felt like his prospect or, you know, the stuff I listened to was like, Oh, he was one of them more mature, you know, like college prospects and, and like, could make that transfer to the NFL a little bit more seamlessly. So maybe that's in my head a little bit too much. But certainly hear you on that. And then in terms of the, the Metcalfan and pitman, you know, kind of target distribution. I do think like even if, even if Metcalf ends up getting fewer targets than Michael Pitman, he's still who I would want. And fantasy, Michael Pitman, you know, his has a 7.4 yards per target in his career. Meanwhile, Metcalf is at 8.7 that held last year, even though he had his lowest 8 out of his career. That was DK Metcalf. He has, has lowest a of his career by about two yards, but he also had his highest yards after catch per reception. So Grach, kind of how you alluded to on more like those short slants that allowed him some field to run afterwards. You know, I do feel like they utilized him pretty well there. So, I'm not sure. That was a good, interesting new wrinkle for him. It was a lot more yards after catch per reception than typical for him. And you would think that like would not only continue, but it like it makes sense for a guy with Metcalf's athleticism right to do some of that catch and run. And I think that stuff was like they were on the same page with it. Some of that was just the glance routes and stuff that Rogers likes to do. And I think they were very much on the same page. I think it seems legitimately positive for Metcalf. I started with these guys at the same target share. The only reason I went pitman ahead is that pitman is a lower 8 out player, even at Metcalf's reduced 8 out. He was like basically wide receiver average. Pitman's always been a below average guy. He operates more in the lower area. You're going to get more targets when your routes are breaking in shorter areas. Rogers getting the ball out earlier. I do think pitman's going to impact some of the lower 8 out stuff. And that's pitman's like profile. He's been a lower 8 out target hog. But I do have his yards for target meaningfully lower his TD rate meaningfully lower than Metcalf as you're alluding to. Metcalf had a good year last year. Man, 21.3 targets per out run was a three year high for him. And he talks about the efficiency sticking solid 1.83 yards per out run for a guy that I mean, I felt like it might be kind of a tough situation for him. The routes weren't really there. But if they throw a little more like I think there's room for Metcalf to have a pretty solid year. Yeah. And pitman just doesn't have much juice after the catch either. So I think he's probably fine in PPR leagues. But I'm not necessarily like super eager and drafting Michael pitman and half PPR, especially just with a 43 year old at at quarterback and some overarching concerns at at a, you know, on this offense as a whole. But, you know, I'm Pat Frymouth last year. He only had 51% route share in 2024 without John Smith. That was up at 71% Darna Washington was on the team in 2024 as well. Obviously a bit more season now. But I do think we could see Frymouth kind of get back up into that 60. 65 to 70% route share, which makes them a very viable, you know, end of draft, tight end target. And, and, and, and, Gratio, you'll love to hear that we, we are full two rounds ahead of underdog ADP on, on farmers. You're gonna absolutely love drafted him over there. - Sorry. - He is, he's, he's pretty much free. He's going as the tight end 29 right now. So, you know, very, very discounted and drafts for sure. - Love that. He's, I think he's one of the best late round tight ends. Is you're looking at routes at a certain point. And I think people see Washington and they get concerned. I, I think it's, this is a great example of the different tight end roles and the loss of John who, like you said, is actually really big for Friar Mooth. Washington is gonna do some stuff for sure in the past game. But he's also like a sixth alignment. I mean, that's sort of, in some ways he frees Friar Mooth up and, you know, you get into the two tight end stuff. And then, yeah, I mean, how big of a, I think Friar Mooth's biggest concern would be how big of a role Bernard has. So, if you're really into the 11% L stuff, you think Bernard's gonna have a big role. It may be that the tight ends do split a little bit. I think they're both gonna be on the field with decent amount together. And Friar Mooth's gonna run kind of a lot of routes, which is pretty big. - I think the Washington stuff is pretty interesting. Last year, Mark pointed this out when we were doing weekly projections, but Mike Tomlin had some quotes about, I believe it was when the opposing defense ran up four or three, that that was when they wanted Darnal Washington on the field more. And if they were playing at three or four, they didn't want Darnal Washington on the field more. And as the season went on, that trend kind of went away. I don't know if it's because the defenses were disguising more and it was getting more difficult to predict pre-snap exactly when he'd be needed or not. But early in the season, there were some really stark splits for Darnal Washington in terms of when he'd play a lot of snaps and when he wouldn't. So, I'm sure there's like some sort of ball-knowing angle. I think that as we've talked about, the defenses are getting better at disguising a lot of stuff, which probably renders it a little bit less useful. But he's an interesting player because he pretty much is a sixth offensive lineman. He was on the St. Brown Brothers podcast and said he's 320 pounds. He's 673 20. So he is quite literally an offensive lineman out there. And I do think that the dichotomy of him versus Jeremy Bernard snaps are interesting to think through and likely match up dependent and try and move as pretty interesting as the actual tight end one type role that we're used to seeing. Right, and that note you just made about Washington's weight. I mean, think about that in the context of Fryemouth where I think people again are concerned about Fryemouth's usage because there's these two guys that have a tight end label next to their name and it's like they're going to use this other guy, but it's 320 pounds. Like they're going to use them some, but he's not going to run 600 routes. That's just not practical for Darnal Washington. It may cut into Fryemouth's a little bit. Fryemouth's a very traditional tight end size. If anything, he's a, I think a little bit undersized, but like a very solid receiving tight end profile as well. Like I said, like if you go look at his actual like per target stuff, very good. I mean, his catch rate's been over 70% three straight years. Last two years, 83% and 77% and it's not one of these like really low eight odds that some tight ends have. It's a little bit below average, but not bad. But like he's got mits. They talked about this coming out. He was going to be a red zone threat coming out when he was a day to pick and he said three years with a 7.5% receiving TD rate or higher to that were low. But he's definitely capable of stacking some touchdowns that depth adjusted racer number. I talked about he's been well above average each of the last three years. He's like, I think he's just like a legit good tight end. Yeah, shout out Penn State. I think, I think Lovatana one point, you know, has has dubbed Pat Fryemouth put on this earth to score touchdown. So hopefully, hopefully we get a few more of those this season. All right, let's transition over to the Cleveland Browns who did bring in Todd Monkin as their head coach. And he will be the play collar here in Cleveland's. You know, it's a tough team to talk about because in mid July, we pretty much have no idea who the starting quarterback is going to be reading through the TV. It sounds like it's going to be a battle throughout training camp between the Sean Watson and Shadur Sanders. Most likely, they also have Dylan Gabriel in the room. But he was absolutely horrendous last year. I don't think he really has a shot. Then they also draft a tailing green this year, who's more of an athletic freak, you know, seems like more of a pretty raw quarterback in the sense, but could eventually get there. And it's like an interesting dynasty stash, I think, at this point. But in terms of a team level, you know, it's pretty difficult to talk about without knowing who the quarterback is going to be. And then they also are likely to start five new offensive linemen. They drafted two wide receivers, you know, in the first 40 picks. So there's a lot, a lot of new and interesting things going on in Cleveland, but it is pretty tough to dissect on a team level for the Browns. We're at 60.4 plays, Gretches at 60.3. We're at a 62% pass rate and Gretches at 61%. So relatively in line there, in terms of the quarterback split, we have the Sean Watson kind of as the, as the favored quarterback at this point in time, in terms of a passion share. We're at, you know, 50% on, to Sean Watson, 40% on Shadur. And then we sprinkle a little bit on, on tailing green and, and Dylan Gabriel in the back end there. But I don't know if, if, if you guys even want to talk about this, this quarterback room at this point in time, I mean, the last time we saw Dishon, it was, you know, a historically bad quarterback season. He was at 5.3 yards per attempt in 2024. He's since torn his Achilles twice. And, you know, so I don't really know if he has any NFL career left and then Shadur Sanders, you know, had a tough season last year, but, you know, at least, at least more of like a, of a runway in front of him, I guess. So I don't know, Jack, any thoughts on this quarterback room or Gretches, if you guys want to hop in here, I'll just kind of open the floor to talk through this, this Browns quarterback situation. Yeah, I mean, it's brutal either way. Watson was at 5.3 yards per attempt in 2024. 6.0 throughout his Browns career. And he tore his right Achilles twice since the last time he's taken an NFL snap. Shadur 6.6 yards per attempt. Seven touchdowns, 10 picks. I'm nearly a 10% sacri last year. I, it sounds like Watson has been good in practice this off season. I'm obviously very hesitant to buy that. And I think it makes more sense for them to start Shadur. It's simply because he's younger and they're not going to compete this year. But I guess we'll see what they actually end up doing. But they're implied for the third fewest points per game. Todd Monkin has had very different offenses. Mostly based on personnel, they were pass happy. In Tampa Bay, they were very run heavy, obviously, with Lamar Jackson. We have them for very low in play volume. And then I assume they want to run the ball a lot. But with teams this bad, it's always a question of how much will they actually be able to do that giving GameScript? I love that we, like I didn't, I went into this thinking I would, well, I guess I didn't really think about too much. But I'd probably projectioner Sanders to play more. And I went through the quotes and some of the stuff in the off season that you guys were alluding to. And I wound up projecting Watson to get 60% of the drop-backs in Sanders 40. And then I don't have a system where I could project a third quarterback and I didn't care to. But I love that you guys have it similarly, like Watson leaning a little bit. Because I was like, I wonder what they're going to do. And I assumed I had it wrong. But we're actually pretty similar in terms of the split. But yeah, that's the way that I'm kind of reading it as well. One of the things with Monkin is he's always kind of liked athletic QBs. He comes over from being in Baltimore most recently. And he's been talking-- one of the specific quotes he's been talking about saying that Watson's athleticism shows up. Just interesting coming off the Achilles. But Watson has always been a really good athlete. Like if you go look at his rushing, even though he's been a horrible passer in Cleveland, he's always had good yards per carry. When he does scramble, he finds space. Like he has always been good with the ball in his hands. I think people probably assume a little bit that Shader Sanders is because he's the son of Deon Sanders, who famously ran a 4-2 in Timberlands. Like there's all these stories about Deon Sanders, who was one of the greatest athletes in the history of the sport. But Shader Sanders is actually kind of not a great athlete, necessarily not a huge scramble. It didn't do a lot of that. And it wasn't a lot there in his prospect profile. He actually had a decent yards per carry last year. But he also did it with like a 10% sack rate, as Jack was talking about, like Watson is a little bit better in that regard. He's taken some sacks for sure. But kind of that combination of like when you're holding the ball, are you evading some sacks? Are you turning it into positive scramble? At least from when I'm going to-- The last five starts for Shader. Yeah, average 30 rushing yards per game. He didn't run at all on like the first two. And then yeah, kind of started to scramble a little bit more. I think that was mostly just he realized the passing game weapons were horrendous. You didn't really have anyone to throw it to. And their offensive line was absolutely crumbling at that point in time. So I don't know. After analyzing this, we have Watts in the head. I personally am like rooting for Shader to start just to see more of the unknown. And I think it was a really difficult situation last year. Who knows if he'll end up playing any better this year. But man, I do not want to see the Sean Watson play quarterback in the NFL at all anymore. So I don't need their-- I don't think they're ready for Shader. Yeah, I thought he'd be done. The big thing I would say is they're passing efficiency. Like Watson's was really bad. But like Shader's was pretty poor as well. The passing efficiency was similar. Watson has not had really high interception rates either. Shader had some pretty huge interception rates as well in addition to having-- Watts in has really bad secrets, too. But anyway, yeah, I'm going through the projection. I'm very curious how it works out. Frankly, I'd just like to see Taylor and Green. This guy's 6'6" to 27 elite jumps. I mean, you should have a 4'3"7. Like this is Anthony Richardson. Yeah, well, it's funny because at the UTR retreat this year, I always ask Sean Newsham, PSU fans, and Alex Harden, who are our college football. analyst, you know, I asked for like the rookie scouting reports and I'm asking about some of the browns guys and in Sean just goes just Trafftaling green on every team and I was like you mean you mean dynasty team right he's like no every team like the one if this guy You know if this guy plays he's he's gonna destroy fantasy So I do think he is is probably pretty interesting dynasty stash Crazy how good of an athlete this guy is yeah, yeah, and like the questions about him this off season I've been like are you gonna convert him to tie to end or wide receiver and they're like no We're gonna keep him at at quarterback. So I do think that is you know one one at least interesting quarterback nugget We can we can toss out for the browns here Let's go to the running back room though headline by Quinch on judge juckins who had you know an interesting rookie year Certainly tons of volume the efficiency was not there But also had the lowest yards before contact in the NFL last year among qualified running back So again just a pretty rough offensive environment and offensive line Therefore the browns and then he dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula on December 21st of last season Recovery seems to be going while he's already Was practicing and and you know the spring mini camp and seemingly looked good there So in terms of projections we're at 236 rush attempts on judge kins grachas at 259 We're at 36 targets and grach is at 39 on him and then on Dylan Samson we're at 84 Rush attempts grachas at 77 we're at 36 targets on Samson grachas at 53 so we have we have the targets even on judge kins and Samson Grach a little bit ahead there and obviously we have the lion's share of rushing work on judge kins here So Jack it's it's a pretty tough situation once again for judge kins But he does you know set up to see a ton of rushing work this year What's your read on judge kins in this backfield? Yeah, judge kins only average three points a chance for carry But I think if you try to isolate what he did it was actually pretty good He was at 0.3 restaurants over expectation for attempt 14.48 qualifying running backs in Yards after contact per attempt. So I think judge kins himself was pretty good He didn't play a lot of the past downs, but he still had a 7.7 percent season old target share Which isn't absolutely terrible the problem for judge kins is that he's likely to be a two down back on one of the worst offences in the league And an offense that is going to be facing Negative game scripts a lot. I believe we have judge kins tied for the highest Share of design carries in the league. So we have them dominating carries Within his own offense as much as anybody in the league and we still come in below 80 p on him simply because those carries are not super likely to be valuable in this offense Samson's a little bit interesting too. He was really inefficient as a runner, but he did get targets He had a 29 percent targets per hour on six point eight yards per target, which is actually pretty good For running back and and if he factor in the strength of the offense, that's really impressive That the 6.8 yards per target as a running back on the Browns offense last year the pass down role is vacated to own forward is gone So I think Samson is interesting from a Target share perspective if judge kins were to go down I think rocket sanders could factor in a little bit. We saw that near the end of the year last year And then going back to judge kins the the big question he has been practicing since maybe we've seen the fibula injuries Impact players the following year before it sounds like everything is all good on the judge's front, but it's worth keeping in mind for sure Yeah, and on efficiency standpoint We're at 3.9 yards for carry on judge kins gratch a little bit higher at 4.1, but but for the most part in lockstep there I do think you know judge kins Had a couple games without Dylan Samson last season one one of those games was played in full the second game without Samson just as when judge kins got injured But in that one full game that that judge kins had without Dylan Samson he ran 55% of the routes And he had six targets in that game before he got hurt and and prior to that game he had a 27% route share on the season So it did double without Dylan Samson I do think those roles will be pretty distinct and then you had Todd mocking coming over from Baltimore who had You know kind of justice hill and in that past game role So I do think like he can slot pretty nicely in there and Samson was a you know a pretty solid prospect coming into last year and did have Good target numbers. So I think he's an interesting kind of end of draft flyer and and ppr leagues not a whole lot of interest and half ppr But um gratchy have do you have much interest in and judge kins or this backfield for fantasy this year Yeah, no, I would just echo what you guys said I agree on on samson ryan heath of fan sequence had a great stat that a different running back has led The offense and russia tems per game and targets per game in each pod munk and seven years as an NFL offensive coordinator dating all with a 2016 with the box um I was clicking through some of his time at Georgia and it was true there too They had like zimmy or white as the lead back and then they were like throwing to james cook a little bit out of the backfield more and Kenny Mac and Tosh um Up until I think like the final season it was it was the same back had the Had the lead in the run and and the pass down stuff But he kind of sees those running back roles as a little bit distinct He was what the browns in 2019 when chub was a lead russia and kreme hunt was the pretty clear Pastown guy so we've seen this from him in a in a variety of different offensive you mentioned obviously Derek Henry justice held the last few years In Baltimore. So that's where I come out with um I mean, I'm even light on you guys on the russia tems for samson But come out with significantly more targets for samson relative to to a judgekins because of that And then also just because of the receiving efficiency uh that the jack mentioned 1.86 yards per outrun very good as a rookie He mentioned that the targets per out yards per target. I have the you know different source different slightly different numbers But same same general vibe very strong for a running back Juddkins was that like at about half of that at 1.05 yards per outrun Um, which isn't I mean even like terrible or anything but samson was really really solid and so Uh, I do think we're kind of going that direction and then and then what jack said as well I just had you know how to note that I thought juckens is probably better than the 3.6 yards per carry he had Um, he did have like you mentioned some of the yards after contact some of the russia's over expected was was good He did a pretty poor evasion numbers it was kind of um Disappointed to see that I guess when I was digging into some the advanced stuff I mean there's a lot of times when he was contacted in the backfield like when you were watching those games and then eventually he would kind of hit for one um, I don't know like Enough about you know rushing efficiency to know like what was really the different stuff, but it seemed like Um, when it was well blocked he would get it, but sometimes he wasn't you know creating Anything necessarily on his own. Although you it's hard to to parse that from The offensive line being really bad, but the offensive line is expected to be pretty poor again That was looking at a few different sources. They I mean some of them haven't dead last some of them have them in the bottom five They have uh four out of five new expected starters that were not with the team last year three veteran ads two from free agency one in a trade And then a 2026 first round pick at tackle Um, and so caught nudie becomes a thing at an offensive line and so that's also I mean not great when you have two quarterbacks it takes sacks and and and then some of the issues with Judkins this this offense Not a lot of reason for optimism. They do have the fourth easiest schedule. So we got that going for us For sure and just insane youth across the board here for the Brown especially a shooter starts at quarterback like almost every one of their skill Players are gonna be 22 or 23 and under outside of jerry judy who's who's only 27 But you know you have kc conceptions dens alboston quenchide junkins and then herald fan who are all really young So it's gonna be there's gonna be some bumps and bruises along the way And I just find it a little ironic that Todd Monkin gets his first head coaching job at age 60 and is like you know Just thrust into a an offense full of of guys that are 22 years old. It's a pretty interesting there But let's let's go on to that wide receiver room because they did Invest a decent amount of capital at that position this season draft a kc conception in the first round And then dens alboston high in the second round Jerry judy returns to this team as well and then obviously have herald fan and who was you know rookie tight end breakout last year drafted in the third round and then was a young tight end at only 21 years old So pretty interesting pass catchers to talk through here in terms of target distribution We have kc conception leading this wide receiver room at 86 targets gretches at 79 where at 71 targets on dens alboston gretches at 50 there And then on jerry judy we're at 69 targets in gretches at 100 targets So massive discrepancy there that that is also a spot we've gotten kind of like bullied down a little bit Open this open the offseason lot a lot higher on on jerry judy and You know there are some questions on on what his role will be again Just kind of given the draft capital invested into the other two guys here, but I don't know it's already I still have fewer receiving touchdowns for jerry judy than you guys even with like 30 more targets That is pretty wild that that has been like his his biggest issue and in his career only a 2.8% TD uh rate throughout his career, but he has he has 17 touchdowns on 607 targets this dude yeah, not crazy I was kb's have always sucked, but like whoo crazy for sure and and yeah over 600 targets in 60s and he's average over 100 targets a year And and people just do not want this dude at all on face football He's going as the wider seaver 73 right now on underdog So you know essentially essentially free back there, but Denzel Boston is like the prototype well extra seaver and then last year with the browns jerry judy ran 80% of his of his routes out wide He's been 64 he was 64% out wide and Cleveland the prior season but was like a 60% slack guy in Denver So I do think there is some potential change that could come there and then case he concepts you know and has drawn some zay flower comps You know and especially I think with top-momkin coming over here that that has like proliferated a little bit And zay flowers has been two thirds out wide one third in the slot So I think we see Denzel Boston out wide for sure here and then conception and judy could potentially be interchangeable, outweighed and in the slap. But I've been pretty into Concepcion. I think just given, he was one of the more talented Widers you were prospect. So, Grash, I'll toss that to your way a little bit. And fantasy drafts, he's going 45 spots behind my Kai Lemon at this point in time. And I think has a little bit clear path to targets. Obviously, a much, much worse offense, but only drafted four spots behind my Kai Lemon. I'm curious if you're excited about Casey Concepcion and his profile at all or a little bit disappointed in the landing spot and looking more towards a dynasty pick more so than a redraft pick for this year. Well, he has a lot going for him. I mean, he's an early declare. Turns 22 in September. So super young. Really good evasion rates, ball and hand stuff. He wants to two different colleges. They both used him on rushes, a good amount. They had him out there on punt returns last year, which we've seen over the years. There's some signal in teams just trying to get the ball in guys hands in different ways. He didn't test, but I think we can pretty good, get a pretty good feel that he's got the quickness and the ability with some of the numbers, the ball and hand stuff, the evasion rates. As targets proud run, all three years of college were really high, at least 24.6% 88 plus targets all three years, two years over 100. I mean, it seems like a really good ball and hand guy. He's under 200 pounds, but he's going to be athletic and shifty and all those things. One of the really interesting things about his fit as it relates to back to Schittler Sanders and what this offense looked like last year. And one of the reasons I don't want to be in on Jerry Judy again. I had a lot of him last year when I wrote my field tippers article earlier this off season. I mean, I outright was like this stat I'm about to tell you makes you want to kind of get back into Judy. And I was like, typically that would be due to to QB play. And then I'd have to make a case that Judy's longer track record probably makes him the one that you should consider a rebound from, which is not a case I'm going to make. So let's just say they all suck and move on from it. Like that's the way I ended that article. And it's were months later. This is I did a little bit of a positive Calvin Ridley thing on the an AFC South think. I've really 32 Jerry Judy's 27 years old. Has a ton of money on his contract for two more years. Every time they've asked about Jerry Judy this off season, the team has told you that they still think of him as a starting wide receiver. They asked after the draft how the wide receiver selections affect Jerry Judy zero impact on Jerry Jerry. He's our bell cow. He had they've had a bunch of positive stuff about him and the pre draft in the early off season about how the offense let him down. The stat that I was alluding to within this offense last year, the running backs had really high target rates. The tight ends at low eight dots had high target rates. And then all of the wide receivers were suppressed. The cornerbacks couldn't get the ball down the field. Judy led the wide receivers and targets per run at 17.4%, which was for him a career low. But it was higher than every other wide receiver on this roster. He had a terrible year. He had a horrible drops issues. He had a lot of effort issues. Again, he's owed a ton of money through 2027, probably on the team. Unless they do look at post July one cut next year and eat like still some money to do that. And again, still just 27 years old. It's not the same thing as the redly thing where he's like 32. And I'm probably out of my mind. And they have Karnel Tate and he's a top five guy. This is a late first round pick in Concepts Yone who plays a different role in my mind. He's a ball in hand underneath guy. Even though you said that they're going to move these guys around. Judy is eight odd has been more legitimately vertical. I always kind of think about it in terms of depths. The concern for me would be more about Boston. I really like Boston. I'm a UW alum. He's a bigger dude, praise for his physicality, the catch point. Some people don't like how the pen and he is on fantastic catches. I think he's good. I think he's going to be probably solid. I do think it's probably a tougher role to succeed with poor QB play right away. He had kind of a high eight odd over 1,100 yards. Both the past two years. I have a hard time seeing him objectively, but he was a later producer in college as well. We like to see early production. A hard time seeing him, I'm a jackly again because I saw him. I watch all their games. I'm a, you know, I went to school there. So I thought he was great. And I think he's probably going to be good, but I've been wrong on a lot of UW players or ever good in the NFL in case you guys are unaware. But Judy still ran a ton of routes last year as well. I want to mention, he was like deemed like a route merchant in 2024. He ran 591 routes again last year. The TD rates really, really bad. But if you look at him statistically over the course of his career again, 27 year old, last year, huge outlier year. His 17.4% target sprout. And his 5.8 yards per target, both career lows by a lot. You have the drops in effort issues. You have all that. His previous career yards per out run, 1.65. He was all we down to 1.02 last year. His catch rate was way lower than career low. His depth adjusted racers stuff that I look at tends to actually be positive. If he tends to be efficient relative to his depth, it was very negative last year. Maybe he's just done at 27, but it looks like he was just like out on the season. And they've been saying all off season, he's there, dude. So I didn't want to project him to lead the team in targets. They got two rookies. I think they're going to play those rookies a lot. I'm still projecting those guys to combine for 130 targets. I think it's Sepp Siones going to have the clearer early role as the first round pick. He's another one that I gave solid rush attempt volume two as well. I think Boston is going to probably play a good amount, but I have a decent, I have a bigger role for Tillman than you guys and I probably don't like that. I probably just want to give that over to Boston. I just didn't, you know, I had some Tillman, some Isaiah Bond. You guys have more for Bond. Just think they're going to do some rotational stuff for whatever, but to me, Judy, again, as like this veteran, I don't think you just throw, especially when Sanders is out there, a quarterback, you throw all the rookies out there, the second you're tied in the two rookie receivers and say, hey, you know, second your quarterback, all you guys go figure it out, second you're running back. Judy, that's why they called them the bell cow. He's their veteran, their pain in a bunch of money. Again, ranked 600 routes, even when he wasn't even trying last year, they kept running him out there. Different coaching staff, same GM. I don't think he's going to run a lot of routes, dude. For sure. And basketball, he's, Judy is almost a guy I'd be willing to push like all my chips in on if just at his price. If I felt a little bit better about the quarterback play and then you do have like the TD rate kind of dragging him down a little bit in that regard, but man, yeah, I mean, you just, you just take the profile as a 27 year old former first round pick, who's average 100 targets throughout his career. I think it's kind of hard to be any lower than we are. Like I think we're as low as we can go and we're still above market there. And the case I made last year on this show was every quarterback he'd ever played with was terrible. You go back, like you put rip in a bunch and like Russell Wilson in Denver when he was like bad was like one of the better quarterbacks he ever played with. Judy's never played with anyone decent. Not that he was looking like he was going to going into last year, but I was making the case last year that maybe because it was like Joe Flaka was going to start. Maybe that's going to be the best QB he's played with for fantasy production. And obviously Judy has a horrible year last year, but my point is the longer track record that I'm saying that last year was an outlier from was with bad quarterback play every year of his career. He's been able to still be a 1.6 or better yards per run guy. I mean, honestly, he was awful last year, probably the worst individual football player of the entire season. I watch all the games for every team. It was like one of the worst individual seasons you'll see at any position. So I don't want to draft him and I have not like clicked his name at all, but I do think objectively, it's probably a good click. Jack, we're above a market on on all three wider receivers and fan in here. And again, that's a little uneasy just kind of given the quarterback play outlook. But we have the we have the QBs here pretty, pretty muted. I think we're at like six and a half yards per attempt on both guys. So quite, quite low. But curious your thoughts on this wider receiver room if there's any guys that you're eager to take in fantasy the season. Yeah, I mean, I think for us being high on everyone versus market, I think it's a spot where the market kind of just decides not to have certain players on these teams, but when you actually project it out, I mean, you can't project the rounds for like one touchdown per game. We can project them for among the lowest touchdowns per game. And but even when you do that, we kind of end up higher. Whereas some people just decide, oh, they're on the brounds. I'm not going to drop them. We're higher on Garrett Wilson too. We'll get to that eventually. But for this receiver room specifically, I'll say that Boston has been getting really good reviews from Brown's practices all off season. I think that his lack of production early in the career is somewhat defensible because he was behind Rome, Jalen McMillan, Polk, and Jeremy Bernard as well. So I think that that kind of explains part of why he didn't produce first-use and then when he did get on the field, he was productive at the same time. He didn't produce when he was playing behind Jalen Polk. So I mean, take that for what it's worth. But I think that they're talking up getting conceptually on the ball in a bunch of ways. I believe the phrase, they used this a bevy of ways. So I think that he's going to get a bunch of design touches. He won the Paul Hornagoward for the most versatile player in college football. Last year, I graduated to his kick and fine return abilities. I think they're going to try to get the ball in his hands a lot and let him make plays. And that's certainly a better fit for the quarterback room than done so Boston trying to win down the field. So I kind of agree with what you guys have said. Maybe a little higher Boston just on the off season reviews that he's gotten so far. Isaiah Bond has also been talked about really glowingly. That's why we're a little higher. And it sounds like Tillman probably makes the roster, but it's not a lock. So that's why we have Bond ahead. But I mostly think it's going to be these top three. I mean, Bond was at 0.13 targets per hour on last year. So I think targets could consolidate around these top three receivers and fan it quite a bit. I'll have you guys know that. Why? Jack was talking. I just took half a percentage point of of target share off of Jerry Judy and said, you're going to move to to Denzel Boston because I mean, it's just embarrassing. What a world. Real life, real life reactions to how great this this Browns YG room. But honestly, like when I was looking at this, this, this team last night, I was like, man, okay, can set to be on a Boston. I feel like decent prospects. I like those guys. Judy, I feel like is just kicked to the curb. But he's, you know, he's a solid NFL YG. And then you have Harold Fanon like, man, if we get some quarterback play with with Todd MF and Monkin at the home here, like I think this could be somewhat of an exciting team potentially. But obviously, I'm looking through Rose color glasses and it's likely to be another, another tough season for the Browns. But and all rephrase I said targets could consolidate. I meant snaps could consolidate within the wide receiver room. I don't think this is going to be a super concentrated offense. But I think because of how bad Bond was at earning targets last year, it sounds like Toman is completely irrelevant. I think you could see. Slide receiver snaps really condense around the top three to the point of their really just playing through guys. Let's go to the tight end room. Harold Fanon, you know, mentioned he had a strong rookie tight end season volume wise. He had 72 catches 731 yards and six touchdowns. He also had seven carries for 13 yards and a touchdown. So clear they were trying to get the ball into Harold Fanon's hands. Last year, he finished eighth among NFL tight ends in receiving yards and he had at least a 19% target share in every game from week six to 16. So he was eased and routes wise a little bit with David and Joker there. But you know, it really took over down the stretch and just given how brutal this offense was all around it. I think the fan in season was was pretty impressive. They also drafted Joe Royer out of Cincinnati. He also went to elder high school, which I have a few good friends who went there. So shout out Joe Royer and Eleanor here. But Fanon is, you know, is the the bell of the ball here? Gratch had a had a strong rookie season and you know, is now being drafted as as the tight end seven and has much more target competition this year. So I'm curious if you think there's much of a leap from Fanon this year. We actually haven't projected for the most targets on the team. We're at 102. You're at 110. So it looks like you're in the same boat there. What do you expectations for Harold Fanon going into his sophomore season? I mean, I think he's a stud. We talked about it last year on the show, but 117 catches his final year at bowling green. Didn't lead a conference or all tight ends. It led all of FBS at any position. So to the 1555 receiving yards, people who pointed out that that was at bowling green were missing that they played Penn State on the road. And I think it was A&M on the road. And in back to back weeks, I believe it was lost by like six and seven. And so they're like in these games and Harold Fanon was their whole offense in both games. It's like the other team should be trying to stop this guy. He's the one that's like carrying a bowling green team to almost upset teams like Penn State in Happy Valley. And then it comes in last year. He's an age 21 rookie. Everyone's worried about it. He's got duck feet and all this stuff. Production is production man. He led the team and targets receptions yards and touchdowns in a bad situation. His 23.9% targets per route run by PFS numbers. It led all tight ends who ran at least 250 routes. He was ahead of McBride and George Kittle. I mean, with Bride ran a ton of routes. We talked about that fan and ran fewer. But another notice in Joku in this offense had been over 23% two years in a row. People a couple of years back talked about how he was a flacco merchant and flacco's back and Joku was going to catch all these passes. His targets per route when Fanon steps in as a 21 year old rookie goes from over 23% to years in a row to 16.6% last year with Fanon on the roster. Fanon's depth adjusted yardage was was very strong at a low a dot. His yards were target not amazing. But if you adjust for that low a dot solid 1.68 yards per out run, not amazing. But again, for a tight end in a terrible situation, leading the whole team in volume, leading the position and targets per route to still put up decent efficiency on the back end is ball and hand stuff. Look good. Made guys miss had some mistackles force. This guy's a stud. They asked Todd Monkin. If you reminder him of any tight ends in his past, Todd Monkin was at Georgia. I just mentioned a few minutes ago and Brock Bowers was there and Todd Monkin didn't hesitate to draw that comparison and say, he's just reminds me of Brock Bowers. Just just like that, dude. Yeah, I mean, Harold Fanon's a legit stud. He's going in his age 22 season. The fact that he just did what he did at age 21 in the offense that he was in and what he had done at Bow and Green that I'm referencing. I mean, I can't get overstated. I don't love the situation again this year. But I mean, I don't pass on guys that I think are this good. I try to try to get exposure to them. Yeah, and if Shadur does end up at quarterback Fanon's numbers were even stronger with him. He had a 28% target per outrun and a 24% target share with Shadur at quarterback. So maybe that connection could be become fruitful once again this year. And we kind of talk about all the potential outcomes of the wide receiver room. I certainly feel the most confident and fan and kind of repeating his success from his rookie year given all you laid out there. All right, let's go onto Baltimore. A fun fantasy offense finally here in an hour. Number two of the show they bring in Jesse Minter as the head coach and then Declan Doyle is over as the offensive coordinator and play collar. He was in Chicago last year under Ben Johnson previously was in Denver under Sean Peyton and then was with the Saints under Sean Peyton as well. So so a Sean Peyton and Ben Johnson product here in in Declan Doyle heads to Baltimore in terms of play level or a team level play calling. Here we have we have the Ravens at 61.4 plays. Greshes at 61.9. We're at a 55 and a half percent pass rate. Greshes at 54 percent. So a little bit lower on the pass rate. But our our 55 and a half percent pass rate projection is the lowest we have in the NFL. So we're certainly not expecting the Ravens to throw the ball much at all this season. It is the first season for the Mar Jackson without John Harbald. So it'll be interesting to see kind of kind of how that plays out this season. Jack curious your thoughts on Declan Doyle coming over and and this is you know kind of we haven't seen him call plays before he was the OC last year in Chicago but Ben Johnson called plays so so rookie play collar here in Baltimore with with Lamar Jackson at quarterback or he expecting out of Declan Doyle in this Ravens offense. Yeah we haven't seen a ton from Declan Doyle like you said hasn't called plays yet but I think learning from Sean Peyton and Ben Johnson is one of the better come-ups you can have he's only 30 years old so he's a part of this young exciting group of coaches that are kind of ascending into the head coach spot now but in terms of how that actually affects the Ravens team level projection we're kind of just assuming they're going to be what they have been in recent years from a play volume and and pass rate standpoint I mean we've seen this offense be hyper successful running the ball a bunch who makes sense they have Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry at their disposal so from a team level projection standpoint we're kind of just expecting Doyle to maybe add some add some new tricks but projection wise more of the same. Yeah and last year they were faltered quite a bit in plays per game we have them at 29th last season with about 56 real plays per game this year we're up at 61.4 which is 18th in the league and my my first thought was Doyle you know coming from Ben Johnson the the bears and lions have run a ton of plays under under Ben Johnson and then similar with Sean Peyton and Denver so I was you know a little bit optimistic about the tempo upside Thormin also mentioned that kind of in his in his pace article as well that that could potentially be unearthed a little bit but yeah in terms of like raw pass attempts you know last year the Ravens finished 30 second in the year prior they were 31st and then 30th and 28th so you know certainly not expecting like a big pass attempt leap here anything but Gretchen any overarching thoughts on on technical Doyle here. Yeah no I mean I think it's I think he's a he's a tricky one like I've seen a lot of people reference the Ben Johnson stuff as if he's going to run a Ben Johnson offense he's I believe the youngest OC in the league he's like six months older than Lamar Jackson he's just turned 30 years turning 30 this year his I was looking at him into his background and I mean like he started as a student assistant in college and then immediately out of college and his dad was like a strength and conditioning coach but he was hired by Sean Payton Saints back when like they saw like Michael Thomas having his career and stuff so he's been he's had a lot of time at the NFL level but he spent a lot of time with Peyton he was with the Saints for several years and then moved on to the Broncos before the one year under Ben Johnson I do think both of those teams used a lot of motion a lot of different personnel a lot of multiplicity I'm thinking it's still going to be a pretty run heavy offense with play action off of that and these different things that you guys are kind of talking through I was reading Thorman's pace notes as well and he was kind of saying you know there's some potential for some pace but also like don't get too excited because it's kind of the way that things have been with Lamar so I mean I'm I'm not expecting you know we both have relatively low in playball but I'm a ton in playball they do have the sixth easiest strength to schedule the Vegas win total quite high I think based on what people are expecting it's I mean these days you know there's a lot of juice either way I think it's set at 11.5 a lot of under juice and then you can you know pay a lot of juice on the over at 10.5 it's basically like 11 if you want to split the difference um but yeah I mean I think I think it's a fascinating year because you also have a really young first time head coach as the DC in Jesse Mint Mentor there's been some parallels John between him and Mike McDonald they were position coaches together for four years and Baltimore from I think it was 2017 to 2020 they they had different um position groups linebackers and safety or whatever it was when they were both very young dudes and uh, mentor moved on and then I was back as they had coach for the Ravens. I bring up McDonald. I think he, you know, you go through his first OC, uh, I'm name slipping me. The, the U. Dub guy Ryan, uh, Ryan Grubb Grubb. And he has like a half decent first year as a coordinator, but he fires him right away and once installed a different type of offense, or at least this is the way I've read it that McDonald had a little bit more of a hand. And like, this is the offense. I think you need to have you need to have the Shanahan tree offense. They go to Clint Kubeak. They've obviously now lost Clint Kubeak, but stayed with that type of tree with their new OC higher. My point being that I think there's some possibility that mentor has a little bit of a, a say in based on this higher as well in where the direction of the offense is going to go and what he was looking for. Um, and to me looking at McDonald, that it did lean again toward that run based play action based sort of sort of offense. It's a tough one for me to figure out what we're going to see out of this offense. Cause I think Lamar Jackson skill set dictates a lot. And again, with the really young coaches, a lot of optimism from the, from the market. It'll, it'll be, and then I mean, heck, let's talk about Derek Henry. I mean, turn 32 in January, like just because we've been wrong guessing at an age cliff for years doesn't mean that's not potentially there. But if he's on the field, yeah, it's going to be run based. If he's not on the field, there's justice hill going to be a power back. His Adam Randall, this rookie who just transitioned from wide receiver to running back in his last college year, going to be a power back as Roshina Lee. I think that changes the look of the offense massively, whether Derek Henry gets through 17 games or not in his age 32 season. And really he'll be 33 in January of this year. I mean, like the end of the regular season, this is a guy that is as durable and great as he's been is getting up there for sure in running back years. Yeah. And the pass catcher core is pretty top every here was a flowers and, but you know, Mark Andrews had a pretty big or pretty brutal fall off last year. So it's like, you know, questions around his if he's hit an age cliff at all. And then they draft two rookies on Jacobi Lane and Elijah Sarat this year. So there I do think there are some some decent questions about this ball. It's more offense. It is, I honestly hadn't looked at the win total. The fact that they're priced around 11. I do think does, does, you know, present a lot of optimism here because, you know, there are some and things some decent holes to poke in the approaches here. But let's start with the Lamar of it all in terms of inputs. We're at 475 pass times. Gretchen at 482. Pretty similar in terms of completion percentage. We're close to 65% Gretchen's at 66%. But what I really want to hone in and talk about is Lamar's rushing output. Because last year that that's really what took a dip. He was QB 16 and fantasy points per game. Last year had never been, you know, below QB seven since 2021. And it mostly came from the rushing side of things. Last year, only average 27 rushing yards per game coming into last season. Lamar had average 60 rushing yards per game in his career. Just just absolutely insane. I honestly didn't realize it was it was that high. That's that's absolutely out of control. Average in 60 rushing yards per game for Lamar. And honestly, it came a lot from the designed rush attempts. Last year, he had 27 design rushes according to our SIS data. And only in 13 games. In the previous season, he had 98 and 17 games. And the year before that, 2023 had 84 design rush attempts in 16 games. So last year, he had like two design rush attempts for a game. And in the previous two years, it was at like five and a half. So it was almost cut in third, just some massive gap there. So in terms of our rush attempt projection, we're at 122 on Lamar. Gretchen's at 115. And so Jack, this is a spot, you know, I think is is pretty impactful and important to get right in terms of projecting Lamar action as a fantasy asset this season. We're currently a little bit above market on him and basketball. I have him as the QB to this year. So what's your read on this Lamar rushing outputs? Do you think the design attempts will come back this year? You know, he is only 29 years old. So I don't think the age is a huge concern. But what's your level of confidence in Lamar kind of returning to his rushing ways? Yeah, like you said, it was mostly from a design run standpoint. His scramble rate was still 8.2%. He didn't have any scrambles in his final two appearances of the season on limited drop acts. But when he came back from the injury, he was still scrambling a decent amount. He had five combined scrambles as first two weeks back from the hamstring injury. So it was mostly the design stuff. And it was pretty stark splits before and after the hamstring injury. He had the hamstring in week four. His first four design run rates to start the year were 18%, 6%, 25% and 15%. That's very much in line with where he's been over the previous few seasons. Once he came back from the hamstring injury, his average single game share, the rest of the season was only 6%. So I think coming off an offseason to get healthy, I think we should see those design carries jump back up a little bit. I will say that I think that 29 years old for someone who's as dependent on running as him and who has done as much running as him coming off hamstring injury. There's at least reason to be non-zero concerned, but it's not like 29 is super old by any means. And it's not like he's getting a true running back workload. And he has been pretty good throughout his career to voting contact. So I'm mostly expecting the design runs to come back and the scrambling was still there at least in terms of scrambling volume. So I feel okay, investing in Lamar again this year personally. Yeah, and we, I, I, I don't know how you split out your like quarterback rushing projections. If you do a design and a scramble aspect to it, but this year, yeah, this year we're projecting 3.4 designed carries per game. I mentioned last year that was down at like 2 per game in the previous years. It was more like 5.5. So we're, you know, we're in the middle a little bit, but kind of leaning a slightly more into last year, just, you know, cut to, to honestly be honest, a little conservative there. So what are you projecting for his designed rushing times for game this year? So I do it as a ratio of dropbacks. I have it at, I'm just converting it right now. I have that just over 4.04 design carries per game. What did you say you guys have it at? Like 3.4. Okay. So I do have it coming back. So and, and this is a huge thing. So in the projection, he came out lower than for me, than I expected him to. I often have him come out high, but there's also the element of his passing efficiency, which like his even last year and a tough year has passed a year. It was 7%. He had an 8.7% that year a prior back in 2019 when he was a KB one, he had an 8.0%. He said several other years lower 5%, 6%. But even those are high for most guys. And a big part of that gets back to the scramble rate. Sometimes high, sack rate where when Lamar's actually putting an attempt up, it's usually a potentially high efficiency throw that Baltimore's offense is so fascinating to me because there's been times where under Lamar, they've looked completely unstoppable on offense and people have set the expectations so high that then they talk about them as like chokers or they failed to meet expectations. And there's other times where they don't look great necessarily. I've long felt that at their peak, people sort of under or overstate how dominant they are because they can just look so, they can just lean on you so hard and win games in a way that makes you think that they're unstoppable. But it can be different in a few breaks go. You're in a negative game script, a few breaks go the different way. It's different. And I think that's what last year was. It's fascinating. I'm with Jack with the age stuff and like being a little concerned about the rushing at the same time. 2024 was the best season of his career from a variety of standpoints. His sack rate plummeted that year. What I was, I was really high on him last year when Leonie and I did this stream because he got the sack rate way down and the passing efficiency up across the board. Yards per attempt, past TDs up. We talked with like the Caleb William stuff about how we got the sack rate down by throwing the ball away and taking hits on passing efficiency. Well, Lamar Jackson did in 2024 to get the sack rate down. The scramble rate came down, but not by a massive amount. It was still a lot, not as much as the sack rate came down. And he's getting the ball out efficiently when he is getting it out. Everything he was doing in the pocket, so much better in 2024 than even it had been prior in his career, which has been great at other times. 2025 all that went backwards, right? But he's played hurt for a bunch of it as Jack noted. He gets hurt like in week three or four or whatever it was. Sacrate way back up. Actually a career high at the same time the scramble rate is down. So he's trying to extend plays, but he's not getting into space, right? The pass efficiency comes down pretty much across the board, completion percentage. Yards per attempt, still pretty solid. Past TD rate, still pretty solid at the end of the day. But not all of it, I mean all of it pretty much did come down quite a bit. And so I'm doing this like long view thing. I'm zooming out again. I mean his fantasy points per game in FFPC scoring in 2024 as the QB1 was 28.2. Josh Allen as the QB1 last year was 24.3. I think that's part of why last year was a late round QB year where Drake May and Matthew Stafford and stuff were so close to Allen because there was nobody that was separating these elite duel threat guys. But Lamar did in 2024 would have smashed from a high QB ADP in 2025. And he had even higher points per game back in that 2019 season the other time he was the QB1. He said some other years that have been lower. My point is we know this profile can really hit when he's doing the things that whatever it is, he's in magician, whatever it is that causes him to both scramble and throw efficiently at a really high rate. The playmaker vibe when he's holding the ball. If he can get back to that in a new offense. It almost doesn't matter what the pass volume is as well because it's been really low pass volume but again that's he gets the per attempt efficiency to such elite numbers. The touchdowns are so elite. It's a really tricky with Lamar, like I said, the projection came out low for me, and then I went back and was like, I'm dumb in the scale. I'm adding rushing attempts to this. Like, I mean, I looked at it again, and I was like, this is probably low. The design run rate last year was so much lower than all the prior years, as you guys talked about. So I started adding some more design runs back, a little bit, also just thinking about the Derek Henry fragility and like what they have at running back, they kind of lean on his athleticism. I think he's so good with the ball on his hands, and he's not like old at all. I just, I don't know what you can do from an offensive structure standpoint to like not use Lamar Jackson's athleticism. So I do think that's still gonna be there. He's a very fascinating one. The main point just to drive it all home is like that I do think the ceiling is there, like Jack was saying, to justify a higher ADP. And it's actually a little lower this year than some other years, 'cause he's coming off a down season. - For sure, he is, that's a great point too, and that he is still going as the QB2, but his ADP right now in under August 55, so going in the middle of the fifth round, whereas previous years you had to take him in the third or fourth round for sure, if you wanted Lamar. So you are getting that discount, even though positionally he is going as the QB2. And I think just betting on Lamar to be a sick football player, sick fantasy quarterback long-term is kind of where I wanna be. So I'm trying not to get too hung up on what last year turned into and kind of looking at the pass catcher core, but let's go to Derek Henry, 'cause that is another massive fantasy point to talk through on this team. Gretchen mentioned he is now 32 years old, but he's been the RB7 and RB3 and half PPR points per game since joining the Ravens, Savage 5, 0.6 yards per carry in his Ravens career. And I was kinda looking at the yards before contact numbers. And he's at 3.0 yards per contact before per attempt in his Baltimore career. And it was 2.1 in Tennessee. So he's basically added like a free yard per carry. Just I think that's probably the low Lamar effect and Henry hasn't necessarily lost a step either. So when you're getting over 300 carries and getting actually yard before contact per attempt, that's a pretty solid boost there. He also led the NFL and carries inside the 10 and 5 yard line. Last season he was second inside the five carries in 2024. So it's been a pretty bulletproof profile for Henry in a Baltimore uniform thus far. But I do think it really is age concern. So I don't know if there's a ton to diagnose here necessarily, but Jack, we are above market on Henry this year, which has not been the case in previous seasons. We have a rank 13th overall and half PPR on underdog. He's going at ADP around 18. And I think it's mostly like we haven't really changed any inputs on their canaries. Just the market has sourd on him a little bit. He's been a one two turn pretty much, if not higher, the last several seasons and then for whatever reason he's down at ADP 18. So I don't know, Jack, any thoughts on Derek Henry entering his age 32 season? Yeah, I will say that compared to his first season in Baltimore, his efficiency stuff did drop a little bit. According to pro football references, yard's after contact per attempt was down 0.4. His attempts per broken tackle is how they do it. That was down quite a bit. I think part of the efficiency stuff, though, in general, is reliant on Lamar. So having either not having Lamar or having an injured Lamar kind of affects that on the whole. But I also went back and looked at our 2025 season long projections. And from a target and carry serious standpoint, we are almost identical in terms of how we're projecting Derek Henry. I think there's an argument to be made that maybe we should take him down a little bit just because he's another year older. But we were also-- he was also 32 years older whatever he was last year at this time. So we were all-- we were baking in the age stuff last year as well. And he just shoved it in our faces. So I think that kind of juxtaposing the fact that we already had age-related risks built in last year combined with the fact that he had another monster season kind of offsets it. And it makes sense that where we are, projecting him similarly to where we are last year. But you said that the market has soured on him this year. I think his ADP is seven spots lower than it was last year despite a relatively similar situation beyond being another year older. Imputes wise, we're at 269 carries on Henry Gretz's at 263. And then we're pretty much in lockstep on the target and receptions. We're at 18 and 1/2 targets, Gretz's at 19. We also have the same efficiency at 4.7 yards per carry. So nearly identical across the board on Derek, Henry. Gretz, what's your interest level? And in a mid-second round ADP on Henry this season? Well, I probably won't draft Henry all year, but that's just because of my own biases. But-- and he's stuff me in lockers for years. But because I think it's sort of the small hit, big, miss mentality, I guess. I don't know that he actually can get to the RB1 overall ceiling. He's probably going to be productive. Having said that, when I go through the projection, I had a hard time not giving him a massive number of touchdowns, first of all. I mean, this is a team that actually projects for a ton of points because of the easy schedule and the high wind total. And like, who's taking-- is Adam Randall taking touchdowns? And that's the other thing. I had a hard time not projecting him for a massive number of rush attempts. I think Adam Randall's really interesting. Apparently, he was picked by the owner, Steve Biscotti, or whatever they were talking about, like the GM and the coach that are all just like, yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens with him. He's versatile. I said, this is a make-of-feel great. This is not make-of-feel great. That was immediately dubbed as-- yeah, this is the owner selection on that level. Wide receiver background. They've talked about Lovin as versatility, but they've also talked about special teams a lot. It's the tire on Tracy. He is very athletic. His race was very strong. He's 232, but he's also tall for running back at like 6-2. But he benched 26 times, which is quite a bit. When I was watching some film on him, when he runs, he runs like a bigger dude. Which is funny, because Henry does, too. Henry's obviously thick, too, but Henry's a taller back. Most backs are six footer smaller. Henry's like 6-3 and huge. But Randall's another tall big back, but there's some stuff in his film, for sure, where he seems like he should get knocked down. He runs through some tackles, or he's able to fight near the goal line. So there's some stuff there, like being 232 and being a guy who benched really good. And then he had great jumps, only a 4.540. But I think he's a bigger runner than the other guys than Justice Hill, who by the way is also 29 in November. Then Rashina Lee, who's closer to like 200 pounds, Justice Hill, I think last clocked it, like just under 200 pounds. So those guys are a lot smaller. And then Randall, again, has the Whiteers, who were background, so could come for some of Hill's receiving work as well. I think Adam Randall's kind of an interesting dude. And I do think if Henry went down, he's probably the guy that would get the bulk of the rushing. But I don't think with Henry being healthy, there's really any scenario where this converted White receiver literally converted in his final season. Last year was his first year as a full running back. I think he converted for the bowl game the year prior. And then they're like, yeah, well, you're going to be on running back the rest of the off season. And then he had a good, good final year, but not like great or anything, especially the peripherals were kind of not off the charts or anything. But you kind of expect that for a guy who's converting to the position. But yeah, I think that's more of a long term thing. With Henry, the other thing I would notice the fumbles last year, and some like there was some of the inefficiency stuff. He had some fumbles issues early on. They actually lost some games because of some key Derek Henry fumbles, which has always been something he's been really reliable about. I'm not saying that's predictive at all. I don't think it is. But I mean, I guess it's just sort of a reminder that like, dude's age is a thing. Like dudes, guys do eventually age. Do guys do eventually not be in their peak anymore. I don't think Derek Henry is peak, like basically, ever fumbled. This guy would just like run over you and then laugh at you. So I don't know. It's really, I think it's a tricky running back room for sure. But as far as the projection goes, yeah, I threw a ton on Derek Henry. If you're inclined to be OK with the age and just trust the outlier nature of Henry and what he's always been, then I think you're totally fine to do that. Yeah, I think Randall's a really unique case. Because he's-- well, he was hand picked by the owner. And it sounds like he was exclusively by the owner. It wasn't like a situation where they asked the owner for input. It sounds like the owner scoured this guy himself, like talked to Davos, Sweeney himself, called him himself, and like did everything by himself, which I mean, doesn't sound great. I mean, it's a nice gesture that the owner can do it every once at any time. But I don't think that's going to be influencing Declan Doyle's like process on game day. And he's actually even taller than 6'2. He's almost 6'4, which is really tall for a running back. He was a good wide receiver recruit. He was almost the top 100 guy nationwide out of high school. Dane Brugler says that he has inconsistent vision in tempo at the line of screments, which kind of makes sense, given that he's still adjusting to the position. I mean, we talked about like Nick Singleton having bad vision. That's kind of a concern when you've been playing running back for a while. Adam Randall has one year of playing running back in his life. So it makes sense that he has inconsistent vision. He can probably get better at that as he adjusts more to the position. But he does have the size, I guess, from a weight standpoint. To be second in line for carries. I do kind of think that if Henry went down, I think-- I mean, it's a new step. But I think that Justice Hill has earned so much trust within the organization that he would probably see a boost in carries as well. And it would kind of be like maybe a 50/50 split where justice is also getting the pass down work, because they like his past protection so much. is such a big part of getting, you know, running back, passing down snaps, even though Randall has the actual wide receiver background. Um, but Randall is broadens so many veterans, like they'll probably go sign like Melvin Gordon or Devon the freeman again or maybe they'll call up. That's the Elliott or something. James. Yeah. Yeah. James. Yeah. That's going to mention. Yeah. That's going to be another cardinals running back landing. Laney's back because I don't know if the upside is really there for for justice Hill. You know, I think I'll be involved in the past game for sure. And yeah, I don't, I don't have a ton to add on Randall. So it is a spot where the fragility of Henry's age and his workload that if he did go down, man, it's, it's really tough to know kind of like where to go from a, from a fantasy lens because we know this is an extremely valuable, you know, rain back position to have in fantasy playing next to Lamar Jackson. So, um, I don't know if I, you know, if anyone here is necessarily draftable behind him, but, um, you know, certainly a spot to, to monitor as, as the off season progresses. Let's go to the wide receivers here again, headlined by Zay flowers. They also bring back Rashad Bateman, who had a pretty tough 2025 season. They draft Jacobi Lane and Elijah Sarat in, in the third and fourth round. And then Devonta's Walker also back here. So kind of a lot of names to, to throw out in this wide receiver room, you know, certainly start with with Zay flowers, 25% target per out run and 2.6 yards per out run last year, according to our SIS data, you know, pretty in line with his 2024 metrics, just ticked up a little bit there in the yards per out run. Um, last year he was ninth in yards after catch per reception, also seventh and missed tackles for. So he had a, you know, the same eight out as, as the previous year, but it's catch rate jumped up almost like 10 percentage points. So really efficient year for Zay flowers. Last season, in terms of projections, they were at 108 targets on Zay. Gretches at 118 on, on Bateman, we're at 50 and a half targets. Gretches at 70 targets there. Sarat were at 37. Gretches at 34 in Jacobi Lane. We're at 32 targets. Gretches is at 34. So I'm not sure how much fantasy value there is to be had in this wide receiver room behind. Zay flowers. Gretches, you're at 70 targets on Bateman. We're at 50 and a half, which is a pretty sizable gap there. And it was a rough, you know, 2025 for Bateman down to a 13% target per out run and 0.75 yards per on. He only had two games above 25 receiving yards. So he's young, you know, only 26 years old was a first round pick, but I'm a little bit concerned that like all the all the nagging injuries throughout Bateman's career have caught up to him is Bateman. Someone that, you know, it's just kind of like, you think he's going to be out on the field the most and and therefore gave him the most targets or do you think a bounce back is in store for for a shot, Bateman. He's a fascinating one. I think going into last year or, you know, during the season, the year prior when Lamar was having that great 2024 season, people were noting that the Ravens past catchers all had these great like separation scores and all these things. And I even remember there are some like implication that Lamar was being saved by the fact that he had all these great receivers or he was, you know, he was the beneficiary of that. So maybe that's Lamar Jackson, something he's doing that's affecting the way that you guys are charting this. In 2025 with things not going well on a team level, you see several players efficiency go the wrong direction all at once from Mark Andrews to Bateman to Isaiah likely like significantly the wrong direction. The one guy doesn't go the wrong way for is a flowers. I get to beat Jack on the fun note here that he had on Tucker craft that I'm sure he's ready to to note that flowers has improved his. His targets proud run and his yards per target every year in his yards yards, he yards brought run has gone up. This guy is getting better on more volume as he goes is in a bad situation last year where everyone else got worse. He got better. His depth adjusted racer that's that I keep giving is been great all three years. The ball and hand stuff is great. The catch rates are great. Zayf Flowers low key star like just absolute stud feels like it has to be a big Zayf Flowers year, honestly for me and that's that was my big takeaway in the notes. I a little surprise. I'm higher than you guys on Bateman, but it's it's more just a like I'm looking at multiple years and trying to figure it out. And when you look at him over multiple years, it's just it's really hard. It's all over the place. One of the ways in that field tippers article I described it as he is a higher a dot guy. So probably at the whims of deep efficiency urine, you know, and you're out a little bit. You go back to 20. So here's his yards per target by year. Go back to his rookie year 2021, even 7.6 10.2 6.6 10.7 5.9. These are massive shifts in terms of going from well below average to well above averages has touched down rate 0.0 like 1.5% then 7.1% then 1.6% then 13.9% in 2024. Everyone to draft him last year. He was at 5.3% last year, which is like, you know, at least splitting the difference somewhat and reasonable. But the volume was way down as you said targets per game 5.7 4.7 3.6 4.4 then it was down to 2.9 last year, just in terms of raw targets. The catch rate all over the place was 50% last year. It was 65 the year prior at a higher a dot 15.28 in 2024. The adot was actually down a little bit last year. I don't know what to make of Rashad Bateman. Like it's it is really all over the place year over year. I do think the stuff I was saying about Lamar's numbers across the board getting a little bit worse and I mean, so maybe that's some of that's on Bateman. Maybe the fact that he was able to bateman's getting open and he was able to find Bateman early at the year prior was what was helping the Sakurai being down in the per attempt efficiency being up. Certainly Bateman's stuff spiked a ton in 2024 and then it was it was putured last year. It was way down at the other end of the spectrum. So in terms of what he actually is, I don't I don't know. I'll say on the rookies like I think they're both interesting. I do think it's a little bit. I actually tend to like Elijah Sirot a little bit more. The lane goes in the third round. Sirot goes in the fourth. It's interesting because he is going a little higher in underdog. So that seems to be the popular opinion with Lane. They've been talking a lot about. It's all about catch radius. He has six four great jumps far better athlete than Sirot, but Sirot had more than double the like collegiate yardage. I like to look at the production stuff. This guy gets open significantly at 15 TDs at Indiana last year, one of the national championship. Production was close to Omar Cooper last year and then he was actually quite a bit better than Omar Cooper in 2024 Cooper. The first round pick for the Jets. Sirot goes in round four. He's not seen as good of an athlete and some of the stuff that Cooper brings in addition to that. Cooper's got some good ball and hand and stuff. But Sirot, yeah, bigger body dude didn't test Super athletic, but I think that's less important for a wide receiver. He seems to have kind of the skill set to just get open and draw volume. Lane is this guy that, you know, again, it's all about catch radius and it's this sort of skill set that I think is probably not great for fantasy. Contest of catches are tough to live on. It's kind of the red zone discussion and it's really what they use the Andre Hopkins for I think in the offense last year. Lamar, they've talked a little bit about like liking Lamar likes a big catch radius guy and throwing into these one on ones and stuff. But I tend to like Sirot a little more, but I guess I think Bateman is probably, yeah, clear number two running routes. And then I projected both Sirot and Lane for the same number of targets and you guys are, you know, right in the same range basically. Yeah, and the volume is probably pretty unlikely to be there for anyone past the wide receiver two, even if even if that wide receiver two does command much volume, you know, it's going to be much lower than several or, you know, the rest of the league for the most part, just given the lack of pass time spots and more consistently has year-to-year. And I, you know, I think my concern with Bateman coming off the really poor years is they do draft Lane and Sirot who are, you know, predominantly outside players in college, especially and that's where Bateman's been. You know, he's been 87% out wide in his career. And then the Vance has Walker who is a field stretcher kind of like sacrificial X last year was 82% out wide. So I'm a little bit worried that the routes squeeze for Bateman on top of the inefficient year. But I do want to round up here, Jack, on Zay flowers because he has been ascending the last few years and in his set up to smash. You know, I think the target really could condense around him again, just kind of the lackluster other options in this wide receiver room. But he is, you know, going as the wide receiver 14, which is, which is where he finished last year. Or he was the, actually, the wide receiver 13 and a half PPR points per game last year. So I'm curious if you think there's much more meat on the bone for Zay flowers if you're interested in drafting them just outside of, you know, the wide receiver one range. Yeah, I did have the same notice, Gritch. On the yards for target and targets for around per SIS targets for our own actually dropped 0.01 last year. But the yards per hour on has exploded 1.81 as a rookie 2.4 in year 2, 2.6 last year. He's gotten really, really good in the fact that he averaged more than 10 yards for target last year despite Lamar missing time playing with backup portabags and the Lamar coming back hampered is is really, really impressive. The only thing with Zay is which we kind of talked about with Lamar is that the run heaviness of the offense enables everyone here, including Lamar, including Zay to be so efficient. And so despite getting really, really good, he's still topped out at 118 targets in 17 games last year. So I don't know what the raw target ceiling looks like just in this offense that we know is going to run the football a bunch. But I think that the potential for him to separate as a target earner is certainly there this year. And I think it could be a spot where we could even come up on his target share. And then I'll add on Bateman. He had in 2024 nine touchdowns on 72 targets on his other 190 career targets. He has six total touchdowns. So I think some of the euphoria last year was just fueled by touchdown barriers. in 2024. His target shares before the high ankle strain last year actually weren't totally terrible. He had some really low games. He had two games of six percent or below but every other game was 14 percent or higher which in the Ravens offense is an awesome but it's not a laughable target share but during that stretch the only average 22 receiving arts per game which kind of goes back to the whole thing that you really need to separate as a target owner like Zay has to be fantasy relevant in this offense given the past volume or you need to catch a bunch of touchdowns like Bavond did in 2024. I just took two percentage points off Bateman and put one on Lane and Sarat each when Dank made the point that they drafted two outside wide receivers you're making and I think I'd be to put more after what Jack said but I think you guys are right about Bateman I think I was too high on Bateman for sure I hadn't really thought through that point but I did want to jump in on the the flowers note about the the target cap I think it's a really good stack situation because of the Derek Henry thing if Derek Henry does go down the past right could actually be significantly higher and again like the whole bout with the Lamar thing as I was going through all that to me he's like the CMC of quarterbacks he's like the Pukin Akua of quarterback those are two guys that when I go through the projections it's like I have to mute some of the stuff or else they can just project so much higher than everyone else Lamar's projection can wind up being like sort of silly if you like if you look at some I mean not last year's rates but if he's hitting at a ceiling Lamar and they're actually throwing a little bit more because maybe Derek Henry's injured then I think say flowers targets could go pretty nuts as well I mean like I really like the the past volume correlation for those two directionally yeah I think that's a really good point with this past game on the whole because from like a player level standpoint we're projecting player level ceilings like we have ceiling rest shares on justice hill and Adam Randall if Derek Henry goes down but we're not projecting anything from a team level standpoint ceiling wise so I think for I think this is probably the best example but we glide like any other examples where our running back injury like maybe Jonathan Taylor going down could impact the cults past rate I think that those are probably situations where maybe the way our projections are set up at least where we don't have team level ceiling projections so the way that that set up maybe we are missing a little bit of the upset with the past catchers there yeah that's just one of the natural limitations of of season long projections as well there's only kind of so many so many corners you can you can cover and and you know we are projecting Lamar to start all season and Derek Henry to be healthy all season for the most part there and in terms of stacking partners I do think Mark Andrews is a really interesting talking point as well again just just you know they lose Isaiah likely to the giants this off season they do draft a couple tight ends but a fourth round pick and in Matthew Hibner and a fifth round pick and in Josh Quavos and then they bring over Durham's Smythe who follows Declan Doyle from Chicago and Durham Smythe said 23 targets and 34 games the last two seasons so shouldn't really factor in to the past game but like you know if you if you told me last year that Mark Andrews was going into a season without Isaiah likely as a counterpart and it is going to be you know drafted as as the tight end 11 out I would be taking him pretty much every single time but last year was was a really rough rough season for Andrews he had career lows and an A dot and yards after catch per reception which is you know something like we talked about DK Meckoff on the last team that that was kind of inverse you know he had a low A dot but a higher yards after catch per reception for Andrews last year it was career lows on both which is obviously not a good recipe for production he still did though have a 22% target per out run according to SIS and also out of 7% touchdown rate last year his 8% career touchdown rate is is really a leech you know one of the best among tight ends and it's been consistent throughout his seasons or throughout his career so it's a guy I'd really love to get back in on he is he will turn 31 on on September 6 so as you know above that that dreaded age age 30 season but we mentioned throughout this series that tight ends can continue to be productive into their 30s so I'm having a hard time not kind of getting all the way back in on on Mark Andrews I really think the opportunity is there and it could be a pretty monster season for him if we can just throw out last year but you know in terms of projections here we're at 69 targets on Andrews and and Gretches at 78 in terms of yards per target we're about the same we're at 7.7 Gretches at 7.8 so man this is I again I would love to get back in on on Mark Andrews here I think think things are really open for him to have a big season so curious Gretches you're read on if last year was the start of like a big drop off for Andrews or or if this year is kind of correctable and he can he can you know be back to being one of the better fantasy tight ends yeah I think you put it all really well I had in my notes the yak perception being more you know more than a full yard lower than any other year of his career at 2.1 yards after catch perception he's always been at least at three or four yards per catch after the catch per-ception kind of guy not great the you know the evasion rate the mistakles force perception down from the the bulk of his career target's brought run fell for the third straight year not looking good that going the wrong direction because of the ball and hand stuff the yards per target the pf numbers I have are have them at 6.5 I mean he's typically a 9.0 or higher guy like the two years prior to 9.0 or higher 2022 is at 7.7 his previous career low but still you know more than a full yard better than what he had done in 2025 so a lot it's a little bit like the Jerry Judy thing that I was talking about like this none of this is in line with previous seasons of his career previous career low yards per outrun by the pf numbers 1.88 in 2024 it has been declining a little since the early season stuff early career stuff when he was like over two every year but still 1.88 great for a tie down you'll take that the only issue with him has always been routes volume and it's like he's very efficient per out they went all in at a 1.23 from that career low of 1.88 both on the targets per outside and the yards per target side is the inverse of Z we're losing volume and we're losing efficiency and when he's always been a guy who hasn't got enough routes but has been efficient per route and then we lose the efficiency and then the difference with the Judy thing I'm talking about him being 27 Andrews being 31 in September as you mentioned I am concerned that we're at the back that's why I go back to like it feels like I have to be a big Z flowers here but I do acknowledge what you're saying about it the opportunities available for him I think you guys are right about the Bateman stuff and then you have a lot of young guys otherwise you have two rookie receivers two rookie tight ends those tight ends are kind of interesting the fact that they went and drafted those guys is probably not speaking very well about their long term view of Andrews either right they're trying to try to do some things I I think both those guys look somewhat interesting they seem to really like him there they talk I have talked a lot about his athleticism they mentioned his his jumps and how he tested multiple times because they keep talking about like his numbers are great but like his receiving numbers were not necessarily amazing I mean he had some decent years at SMU but he was at Michigan for three years and did nothing and then basically had to transfer to a smaller school and catch a few passes and Kwevas sort of the opposite he was at you dub and then he went to Alabama and did some stuff at at Bama but anyway both of them have limited receiving production but some you know hebner looks like a pretty athletic dude though and they seem to talk favorably about him and I don't I kind of think that both those guys might be a little bit more of an issue for Andrews and it feels like when we're doing projections are looking at week one like by the time the season progresses but I it's tough to say I mean I think you're right if he's bounces back and he's back to who he is like the opportunity is definitely there yeah and I you know I think it's probably or I don't know I be curious your guys thoughts on if it's like a better bet and re-draft or or best box it's almost like in re-draft you know if you if you have Andrews on your team and like he he bounces back and you're like oh boy you know I have a top five tight end at a tie down 12 or later price tag you know that's pretty awesome whereas in best ball you can't cut him if if like the season starts and he looks washed again so that might be more more my angle but it's certainly again if it's if you just kind of take the long view of what Andrews has meant to this offense and an opportunity and then if Lamar does have a bounce back year it's it's something I think has a lot of upside just at his his current price tag but I am I am battling quite a bit on on if he's on if he's done so or not all right let's go on to the last team of the division here that is a Cincinnati Bengals we saved the team with with the most continuity for last year as they are bringing back their head coach and play collar and Zach Taylor Joe burrow returns here and really no no I guess like big additions they did draft Colby Young in the fourth round at wide receiver but otherwise a pretty pretty status quo offensive environment here for the Bengals in terms of team level inputs here we're at 62.4 plays Gretches at 62.8 right at 64.1% pass rate Gretches at 63 and a half percent pass rate so as this division has been going we are mostly in lockstep on on the team level stuff the 64.1% pass rate projection for us is the highest in the NFL for the Bengals they finished second in each of the last three seasons in terms of raw pass rate did the Bengals and that's been you know with Joe burrow injured for much of two of those three seasons so I feel like we can feel very confidence in you know this passing game or this offense going through the passing game and Joe burrow there also were some some positive notes from from Thormin and his pace column about just how like that pass rate you know leads to such a high floor and ceiling for Bengals you know games and they're all play environment year every year. They ranked top 10 in combined plays in three of the last four seasons. So, you know, a pretty high floor and ceiling here just kind of all around. And then they did bring back Joe Flacco as a backup quarterback, which, you know, I think as a decent, uh, decent sign for fantasy, just just given how much they continue to throw a Flacco under center last year, you know, led to some monster, Jamar chase game. So I think this is a pretty awesome fantasy environment here, Jack, what you read on the Bengals running it back this season. Yeah, I think we mostly know what to expect. Um, with burrow healthy last year, they had at least the 5% pass rate over its like expectation in five of the seven games. They ran a bunch of plays as Thormin has alluded to with burrow last year 64.7 real plays per game. Um, I think we know that this is going to be a voluminous offense from a play volume standpoint and that they want to throw the ball a bunch. They have made some efforts to improve the defense. This offseason, they lost Ray Hendrixson, obviously, but they added, um, Duxcher Llorins, they added Boyet Maffe. I think they drafted, uh, an eddresser in the second round. Um, so I think they're trying to be better, uh, defensively, obviously, but it remains to be seen rather than they can actually escape from the disastrous year that they were in last year. Um, but I think mostly from an offensive standpoint, we know what to expect with the bangles, especially as long as burrow is healthy. Yeah, let's get into burrow then, right off the bat here, just, um, you know, in terms of our inputs, we're pretty similar to Gretz across the board. We have a 55.7% completion rate. Gretz that 66.4%. Um, you know, we're a little bit lower on on the TD rate and efficiency side. We're at 7.3 yards per attempt and only at 33 touchdowns, whereas Gretz is up closer to 37. That is a spot. I do think we could potentially bump burrow has been a 6% TD rate guy since his rookie season. We project five and a half percent. So that might be a spot where we're a little light there on burrow. Um, one thing I want to note on, on him was that he had a career low 5.1 rush yards per game last season. He's never been much, much of a rusher, but he's kind of, you know, hovered more in like the 11 to 15 range throughout his career, which, you know, adds, adds a fantasy point per game. And so that kind of evaporated last year. Obviously he did it suffer that turf toe injury and required surgery. So I think probably that saps his mobility and just interest in running. Maybe that bounces back a little bit. We've kind of seen a wide range on burrow outcomes over the last handful of seasons. Last year's the QB 15 and points per game was the QB 3 in 2024, QB 23 and 2023. And then the QB 4 once again and in 2022. So I think for a guy that gets drafted as high as he does in fantasy leagues, you know, he's going as the QB 5 right now. And underdog he doesn't necessarily have kind of like the rushing floor component that that keeps his, you know, outlook very consistent. There's a, you know, pretty wide range there in his QB finishes. So Gretz Curious your thoughts on on Joe burrow. Obviously, he stays healthy. You know, he should smash with Jamar chase and into Higgins at the helm here. Is he someone you you'd be actively targeting this year in fantasy leagues? Probably not. Just because we've talked about the the number of later on KBs that are strong. And if you're going to take a really high in KB, I think you need the ceiling to be just so enormous. But I do think it makes sense whereas 80 PS because you talked about the past TD rate has been so strong. The completion percentage show strong. It doesn't have the rushing, but he does have hyper efficient receivers that, you know, always carry the passing efficiency. I mean, that works both ways, obviously, but Jamar chase is going to add a ton of yak and it's going to add a bunch of stuff to what you're doing. And then in burrow is a very efficient passer and gets the ball to these guys so that there's run after the catches running backs have always had really good run after the catch. Like no matter who he's throwing to, they seem to always have good receiving efficiency throughout his career. Higgins obviously is a very efficient player. I mean, burrows an incredibly good quarterback. And then as far as the past TD rates can start 30s, the 30s, the strength of schedule here, strong Vegas win total. This, I mean, we probably could have mentioned it earlier, but this division lines up to play the entire NFC South and the entire AFC South this year as they're like divisions on each side that they get a play. So all these teams end up with really strong strength of schedule ratings. It's a pretty favorable division from that perspective. And so you're going to have a high touchdown projection and they don't like run a lot in near the goal line. Like Chase Brown's going to have a decent, you know, touchdown season. Probably he actually tends to run a really hot receiving TD rate because the running backs do have good efficiency. But I mean, some magic p-runs you're back up. Maybe Taj Brooks. I mean, we'll get into the back but they're going to skew the tend to skew when burrows healthy toward the past TDs. And so you get a pretty good projection that way as well. It's not, it's not hard to get burrow into a strong projection. I just don't know that like paying top dollar from an ADP standpoint, the other positions drop off so much like quicker. That's the whole idea. But behind late round QB, you can take elite players at other positions or you know, second tier players or what have you where burrow goes, but you really need to take your swings at running back and what are you in tight end when you can in those rounds. You can probably get a guy who can spike a past TD rate like we talk about like Matthew Stafford. It's a Matthew Stafford. I mean, he's not going to have the same pass rate as bro, but is he going to look that different if he spikes a past TD rate again this year? I'm a little skeptical. So as far as the actual strategy of it, probably out on burrow, but yeah, the projection looks great. Yeah. All right, let's go to the back field. Chase Brown is going as a mid second round, pick this year in terms of our inputs. We're at 212 carries on chase brown. Gretches at 232. We're at 58 targets. Gretches at 71 there. So a little bit higher in in both facets on smudge. We're at 73 carries. Gretches at 47. We're at 20 targets. Gretches 17 there. And then he has Taj brox for a lot more carries than we do. He's at 79. Gretches and we're at 37 on Taj brox. So we kind of have like the RB2 rushing workload flipped between p-rine and Taj brox. And that has been a spot that we've been well ahead of the best fall market on p-rine kind of as a last round pick. And I'm curious to or interested to talk through that just because p-rine's role, I think coming into last year, you know, resigning with the bangles after being with the chiefs most recently. And like p-rine had always been a pass down specialist. So we kind of thought, okay, Chase Brown will get vast majority of the rushing work. And then p-rine will supplement on pass downs and won't get much involvement on the ground. But it was honestly a little bit the opposite. Whereas p-rine, eight and more carry wise, especially in the middle of the season didn't get a whole lot of run in the past game. P-rine was only at 28% routes on the season, whereas brown is at 53%. And then p-rine in terms of carries, you know, in the games that they played together after or starting a week, three chase brown had 65% of the carries over p-rine and p-rine had the other 35% there. So only only 12 carries per game for chase brown in that stretch. So, you know, just I only bring that up just because I again, it was a different split than I think we're anticipating coming in to last year. And so we kind of expect that to roll over to this year, but maybe Taj Brooks in a second year does take more of kind of that RB2 rushing work. So let's get back to chase brown though, just see as the premier fantasy target here again going in the middle of the second round. Jack, here's your thoughts on chase brown's outlook for the upcoming season. Yeah, the receiving roll last year was amazing. 13.8% target share was very strong for running back 24% target per hour run is good. He had a positive ADOT, according to our numbers. He had 88 targets in total, just a very strong receiving roll for chase brown. I think the rushing split was very interesting as you alluded to because starting in week three, p-rine did start getting legitimate carries and then he missed a couple of weeks. I think it was weeks 11 and 12 that p-rine missed. And brown had a good couple of games over 5.5 guards per carry in both games. Then he came back and the split was actually tighter than it was before he got hurt. Over the final six games of the season, it was 87 chase brown carries and 52. Samaj and p-rine maybe a part of that was like the wanting to preserve chase brown a little bit. But I think that we're kind of projecting a more chase brown than it was last year, but still expecting p-rine to have a roll. It looks like Gretch is a little lower on p-rine and higher on rucks than us. So I'm curious how he sees that split, but in terms of chase brown specifically, I think it makes sense to expect clear rb1 again should get a bunch of targets. The rushing split I think is a little uncertain after how it went down last year, but still he's going to get the line share of carries. Yeah, brown, I mentioned the stat a little bit ago when we were talking about the Steelers six backs over 85 targets last year and then there was just one more between 60 and 85. But brown was one of those six backs above 85 targets. I mentioned all those guys have high 80 pieces here. I think he's the lowest of all of them that are other than gain well, which we talked about with the Steelers. But that are top backs. It's a great receiving roll. And I mentioned the catch rates always really high. He had 16-9 receptions on the 88 targets. Now Joe Flacco played a bunch and he throws to the back so you can say that's sort of a Joe Flacco stat two degree. But 54 catches and 16 games the year prior brown did. And burrow again, always been really good for receiving brown. The fourth most routes of any running back, they love him as a pass protector. Talk about him as a three-known back on past downs and what he's grown into. Somalj P Ryan supposed to be a receiving back really. Had a 0.48 yards per out run was below any of his recent seasons. Turns 31 in September. It's not an affordable contract. He signed a two-year contract last off season when they brought him back. So he's like, he's definitely going to be on the team. But I'm a little skeptical. he did total a decent yards per carry at 4.5 yards per carry. It was actually a solidly negative EPA per attempt and he only carried from under center 9.5% of the time. It's mostly shotgun rush attempts and with a negative EPA even despite the 4.5 yards per carry. It kind of suggests like give up carries on third and longs to a certain degree with him. And with the yards per out run really cratering his yak perception was weighed down his yards per target 4.4 way down. He's still at a decent evasion rate but again at this age it suggests that even when he creates some space the explosive is not there because the yak and the yards per target on the past game just not really all that impressive as far as like I'm not like super clear that it's going to be Taj Brooks. I'm not really sure who it would be. I do think thinking of Pyrrhyne as the number two at this age after what he did last year because he was the number two last year means is potentially wrong. This potentially like the wrong way to think through how this year will go. I didn't like Taj. You mean the two in terms of like a handcuffs already cut you out. Do you mean like RB two in terms of like handcuffs. So yeah, if chase broncos gets injured then like Taj is probably more likely to handle the more touches and that's the idea. I think Pyrrhyne may still have a past protector role or be a you know a receiving back but yeah I mean I'm kind of on a limb here like when I say that that's wrong. So I'm kind of saying it delicately but like the fact that they like chase brown on three downs as well as kind of interesting like and the brown around the fourth most routes and all these things like I agree with Jack said Brown's going to play a ton and then it's like what you know what role does Pyrrhyne have does he have just like long down in distance and kind of like a very select role. The Brooks thing again is a round six pick. I don't know that it's going to be him. I did kind of like the profile is a little bit of a bigger back and could do some of the different things. Part of the reason I'm like reading that is he leaves on him is chase brown himself went from 58 touches as a rookie to nearly 300 as a lead back in year two and a bunch of people and I like to the brown profile back then it was in on brown and he was a day three back. A bunch of people were like he's not going to do it. I mean he only barely touched the ball at all. I remember that discussion a couple years ago. They kind of brought him along slowly into going into year two. I think it's possible that Taj Brooks is that year to bet this year that kind of the fact that they didn't really add anyone. They added some rookie UDFA's Jamal Haynes and Kentro Bullock but their profiles don't really pop to me. I'm kind of like want to keep an eye on Camp news here. But I feel like Taj Brooks might be like a low key solid late round handcuff. Yeah. I think it's a good point that he is probably the stronger upside handcuff that you would want. I would be pretty surprised if Pyrrhyne wasn't involved. It just has like the RB two in terms of the normal offensive flow next year. He was solid for them but again as we've all alluded to it was kind of an odd deployment for Pyrrhyne last year more involved on the ground and much less so in the passing game and his metrics in the passing game did dip. So there certainly is a decent amount of risk there. I don't necessarily love being like way ahead of ADP on him in best box. I don't really know what upside there is but he did they did turn to him around the goal line a little bit. He had four carries inside the five whereas Brown only had seven. You know they both had two TDs in that in that sample. So you know he was he was used a little bit and Brown did not miss a game. So that was that was kind of playing alongside Brown there but I don't know anyway let's go to the wide. The key the keys you have a really good offense that are like potentially in plus scripts really good Vegas win total and there's like no depth behind the lead back that the market doesn't even like draft as high as his work like they don't think he's a superstar or anything is basically my point. I mean it's a good backup situation at target. Maybe I'm wrong on P Ryan but like it does seem like the secondary running back situation since in Adi is something to think about. Why does he room always always want to talk through as well just given how condensed the targets have been over the years here with Jamar chase and and T Higgins leading the way Jamar chase you know one of the one of the best baseball bats over the last handful of seasons has finished as the wide receiver three wide receiver one wide receiver 12 wide receiver six and wide receiver five and half PPR points per game over the last five seasons. You know really just I think kind of quarterback agnostic we saw we saw him blow up with which you'll flakko last year and just one of yeah one of the best one of best players in the NFL as well as as fantasy assets in terms of projections here were at 156 targets on chase Gretches at 172 on T Higgins were at 104 targets Gretch at 117 there and then Yoshevass Andre Yoshevass is is the wide receiver three here were at 46 targets on him Gretch at 40 so Yoshe or Yoshevass I don't think necessarily you know fantasy relevant so let's just stick to the top two guys here you know Jamar chase you know you know I'm speaking to buy anyone going in round one but again kind of mentioned at the top just given the the pass rate that the Bengals have shown over the last few years I think in Chase's ability it's just one of the one of the most you know sure sure bets and fantasy you can make so Jack here's your thoughts on on Jamar chase this season and then feel free to add on to Higgins there as well who's been a great per game producer but has struggled to stay healthy a little bit over the last few years yeah we have it like Razor's edge margin between the top between picks two through five which is Bijan, Puka, JSN and Chase we have Chase fourth right now in that group on underdog I mean he's led the league in targets and back to back years we literally have those four within one point of each other total we after the NFC West podcast we try to get Puka up to three and to get Puka up to three we had to bump his catch rate by 0.05 percent so it's just like incredibly incredibly tight between those four I think you know exactly what you're getting with Jamar chase if you wanted to take him second I wouldn't really argue if you want to take him fifth I wouldn't really argue with you either T Higgins his target per hour run fell off pretty dramatically last year to 24 percent target share and basically match chase and targets per hour run in 2024 according to our numbers last year only at a 15 percent target share with Burrow the red zone role is still incredibly strong he had a career high 11 touchdowns last year despite Burrow's injuries and he remains the clear wide receiver two and one of the best passing offenses in the league so I think that the role is is pretty entrenched there but I did think that the drop off in target earning efficiency was notable but yeah I think that these two we've seen a year over year with these guys they spend some fluctuation on the T side from a target share standpoint but on the whole you kind of know you're getting with both of these guys we have a pretty pretty standard gap here between chase and Higgins we're about 15 targets behind Grash on on chase and 13 on T so you know I don't think massive there but it is interesting if you do look at the seasonal splits back to 2024 like Jack mentioned that T was much closer to two Jamar in terms of you know like the per-row data so Grash I don't know if you have any any lean there in terms of kind of like the seasonal splits or if you think T like couldn't crouch much more in terms of like the target earning potential this upcoming season my take on chase is he always as an absolute superstar I always had a weird targets per out run that had never been above 25 percent on pff which like the elites are I mean Pukinaku is like 32 like they're up around 30 at least like Justin Jefferson all of his prime when chasing Jefferson with a one two for a couple of years it's like well Jefferson's at 28 29 percent targets per out and Chase is at 24 we're really banking on efficiency here but he also has a low eight out because they throw them close on the screen which kind of weird um last year he got that up to 28.8 percent for the first time also had a career low 7.8 yards per target and I think those things go hand in hand to some degree from the perspective the chase zone efficiency in prior years probably took some targets away from himself he's just housing stuff and it's like all right well we're gonna throw anymore um what I loved about that is even as the inefficiency was a minor issue the volume just cut flooding in and you love to see that for a first run receiver that there's basically not situations where Chase is ever going to get like forgotten powder is anything other than elite Joe burrows out the offense is different he still leads the NFL and targets a different way uh the other thing about the chase and T Higgins thing as I look at it you're talking about the the per route change weekend make excuses for Higgins from a health perspective 523 routes last year jimart chase over 600 in the same offense 632 career high for Higgins 537 Chase has been over 600 in this offense each of the last three years he was at 579 as a rookie in 2021 was about a hundred higher than Higgins that year he's blown Higgins out of the water in total routes four of the five years they've played together and then they were like close one year uh Chase's second year and Higgins uh third year in 2022 they were close in routes Higgins had a few more but at this point I mean with with Higgins I I mean I don't I tend to fade some of the health stuff but when this guy's losing a hundred routes every year relative to his team's pass rate I do have some real issues about that and in terms of like how much he's gonna cut into chase or any of those kinds of things I mean I guess I'm not that concerned about it from jimart chase's perspective this dude answers the bell every week he's out there he's gonna run 600 plus routes and regardless of whether he's hyper efficient on the targets he gets or there's Joe Flacco in there and there's some incompletions he'll just keep earning volume he's gonna get his targets he's gonna be super productive I think after what he did with Flacco last year he's an even better pick than he was last year when he was the 101 even though his 80p's gonna naturally come down a bit and jimart Here Kips is frankly just a better pick than anyone was last year. And so I agree with Jack, like he's right in there in that two to five range. But I think what we saw last year, the his ability to produce without burrow in a different way, just makes him look even that much better going, you know, going to more chase is a superstar. Like just an insane player at the same time. Like, yeah, he does have T against there. There are these like thin razor edges. I tend to agree. I probably am going to like Puka ahead of chase when I do my own rankings. Like, um, but yeah, I mean, he, he belongs in the top five. For sure. For sure. And in bottom line, it's another really strong like top or first round in top half of the first round. Specifically, I know Leoni was on that last year. Uh, I think in terms of like the action, gente fade, you know, we're a little bit lower than marketing. He's like, honestly, I think it's just because the first round is extremely strong. And I think we have a similar case this year, especially like the top five or six picks. I think you can feel pretty awesome loading up with with any of those guys on on your team. Yeah, just just a note on Yoshi while we're on the bangle was receiving room, seeing the Gretch is lower than us. And we are right now three picks ahead of market. I do think that that's a spot where maybe we could lower his target share, um, largely because there were some games last year without T Higgins, where he was out targeted by Mitchell Tinsley, despite out routing Tinsley. So Yoshi was the White receiver to as expected from a Routes standpoint, but still didn't know the targets despite T Higgins missing time. I mean, that's a really bad sign. We know he's the White receiver three, but what is the hit actually look like? Um, and even when that's the missed time last year, we didn't really see exactly what I had in my notes on him. He had his targets, Proud Run the last couple of years, right around 10%. His career, I yards, Proud Run 0.84. And then I wrote that he could definitely see some threats to his number three role. Exactly the way Jack just put it. I see him as a number three, but Tinsley made some great plays. He was inefficient overall, but he had some like really like some, they were like thrown in like hero shots. He was making some sweet catches on some plays. He's like the Isaac Tesla of the AFC. Um, and then they got the, uh, the rookie, right? Colby Young. Uh, yeah. And he's, he's, he's a Ken size wise to Yoshevass as well. Like Yoshe is 6 3 210 and Colby Young, who they drafted in the fourth round is 6 4 2 15. So that, I think that's kind of been like, you know, the saving grace of Yoshe is that he's a big body and has trust with, with Joe Burrow. So he's had some, some pretty solid red zone and touchdown production. But I think that that profile is pretty fragile. So I, I agree. I totally be fine docking his targets a little bit because he's, he's not someone I think really has much, much upside and fancy at all at this point. You know, he's kind of, has kind of loved the, the opportunity to show that he can be a target on her one. Any of the top guys are out. Yeah. The young, the young note I wanted to just throw out there. He only ran 246 routes over the past few years for Georgia combined. He was decent for Miami earlier, uh, big and athletic. But I don't think of him as like a 2026 play because he didn't play a lot. The last couple years. I think they're probably trying to develop him a little bit. But, um, to your point. Yeah. I mean, he could be a direct threat to, to Yoshevass by like the end of the year. Yeah. And we'll, we'll get into the tight end room. But Micah Sikki is, is, is one of those tight ends. That's essentially a wide receiver and, and you know, practicality. Like he's, he's listed at tight end and, and fantasy leagues. But, uh, since joining the Bengals, he's had, last year, he had 97% of his past snaps came in the slot or out. Why do his 91% in the prior season? So he's not getting any inline snaps. He is essentially a wide receiver for this Bengals team. And we've seen his production really take up when T Higgins is off the field specifically, you know, Jamar Chase has stayed mostly healthy. So I, I think that could, that could be a contingency play as well. If either of these guys go down, but, uh, since the start of 2024, Gisikki has an 11% target share and 16% target per out run with both Chase and T on the field. If you take T off, that goes to a 15% target share and a 24% target per out run. So, you know, he's mostly a contingency play. I think fine and best ball, not necessarily, you know, a redraf guy by any means, unless they do lose some one of the top two guys in this passing game. But this tight end room continues to be a little bit muddled. They also have, uh, uh, uh, third, I guess now a third year player, Eric, all coming back. He, he tore his ACL and his rookie season and then missed all 2025. So he, he projects to be back in this tight end room. Uh, Gisikki, you know, leading the charge target wise for us. We're at 49 targets on Gisikki. Gretsch is at 61. On Eric all, we're at 26 targets. Gretsch is at 12 there. Uh, Drew Sample is, is in here as well. We have 17 targets. Gretsch at 18 and then Tanner Hudson, uh, team preseason MVP, Tanner Hudson. We're at 17 targets. Gretsch is at 28 there. So it's, you know, it's, it's really spread out a lot. I think Gisikki is, is really the only one to talk through. But I did want to mention Eric all a little bit just because he is more of an inline option. 61% of his pass naps in 2024 came in line. And he caught at least, uh, he caught multiple balls in seven of his final eight games that season before tearing his ACL. So he's kind of like a hidden, you know, I, again, I don't really think there's much fantasy upside, but I do think worth noting that Eric all can, can kind of take that inline role, probably over from Drew Sample, who's, you know, essentially a blocker and uses like an H back a lot for this Bengals team. I think Eric all is, is someone that just keep an eye on if, if that role could develop this year. I like that note. I don't have very many targets on him just from a health perspective, but I did see some positive. I did this projection for the Bengals, but pretty early in my process. And I've seen some positive stuff on him since then. So I was just tweaking that a little bit. But the one note I have on the Bengals tight ends always is, I mean, to your point, Gisikki plays a little bit of a different role. But they've had multiple, like the whole heavy tight and formations thing that we're seeing. The Bengals have been doing this for like three, four years. I think I talked about it on the, on the last couple of years of this podcast. But they had Gisikki had 83 targets in 2024 because T Higgins missed a little bit more time. But they still had three other tight ends over 20 targets that year. Last year, Gisikki had 42. Fant was right behind him with 41, but they had Drew Sample at 20 targets and Tanner Hudson at 24. So they've had four tight ends at 20 plus targets two years in a row, which is weird when you, when you actually, like most people are like, I can't contextualize that at all, which I wouldn't blame you. But it's just a thing that they do. Like the routes don't condense massively on any one guy, typically other than Gisikki when Higgins was out was seeming to basically take over Higgins role in 2024. And like you said, he kind of plays wide receiver. So he's the one that I ended up projecting for a little bit more. But like all Sample Tanner Hudson, I mean, we both have him all projected for at least 15. I guess I'm a little lower on all, but you know, some some volume to each of those dudes that tighten three, two, three, four, like that makes it tough for fantasy for anybody. Yeah, I'll add on Gisikki. He didn't have a whole lot of routes without two Higgins last year. We have only 72 routes with Higgins off the field last year. His target per hour run was only 13%, which is drastically different than it was in 2024. That is a very small sample. So take that for what it's worth. And then just contextualizing Eric all a little bit more. He did have four double digit target tiers and nine games as a rookie and a 23% target per hour run. But the injury was pretty nasty. So I think it's something we're going to have to continue to watch. He retore the same ACL that he tore in college. And then they had to do multiple procedures on it because the first ACL repair that he got after the college injury, basically they acknowledged that it was done improperly. And it didn't really go very well. He missed all of last year because of multiple ACL procedures that he had to undergo. So I definitely think he can really factor in if healthy, but it's one that will have to watch their camp in light. So I mean, these guys have such segmented roles. I mean, I'm sure I don't think even if all plays a good amount that they're going to completely phrase out your sample. I think they like his blocking so much. So it's not the most interesting tight end room for fantasy unless Tihiggins misses time. And then maybe you've got Gisikki. They also drafted Jack entries, Andries, Entrez in the seventh round. And he's a really good athlete as well. And somebody that I know has his fans. He was a cow for two years in transfer to Texas last year. And I mean, he could factor in as a rookie to some degree. Yeah. All right. On the mention of Jack entries, that is going to wrap up our AFC North pod today. We appreciate all you guys tune in with us. Thanks again to Jack and Gretch for all the great insight. Be sure to find them on Twitter at Jack Miller 0-2 and at Yards Per Gretch. I'm on their at Mark Dank. We'll be back next week breaking down the AFC and NFC East division. So have a great day. Everyone, appreciate you all tuning in. Peace out.