ETE Projections Special Part 5: AFC West with Ben Gretch

[Music] Welcome to Establish.ai, John your host Mike Piony here with Ben Gretches. We continue on with our offseason projections special. Remember that you can find all Ben's work at bengretches.substact.com. You can find all the rankings derived from the Establish to run projections. Obranestablish to run.com, shout out to Jack Miller and Mark Dankenbring and the whole data team over there for help with those. We'll dive into the AFC West today starting with Denver, one of those teams where we are very close in play, calling. Have them about 62 and a half plays per game a little bit below average there and a 61% pass rate. In the end, Ben's a little higher on pass attempts per game. We're a little higher on rush attempts per game. I think that's just different scramble rate stuff. I know Nick's was a guy. Last year in DFS, we kind of struggled pinning down his scramble rate because it seemed, I think he was running a bit more at the end of the season, which is probably what we have factored in. But yeah, that puts Gretches about 34 pass attempts per game. We're around 33. We're in the upper 27s and rush attempts per game got you in the lower 27s. For Nick's that results in 4,100 yards or Gretches, about 3700 for us. Gretches on the touchdowns has them at 30.4, we're at 24.4. That's really the biggest difference that we have overall looking at Nick's stuff. As always, remember Ben's stuff tends to run a little more optimistic. Close to 65% of the outcome and our stuff more of a median mean outcome for the players. Yeah, and we've had this issue, I think, in a couple spots with the touchdowns. Part of it is I am projecting the league to score more TDs. The kickoff rule last year, I believe, elevated scoring. It didn't really elevate offense on a lot of the stuff that we'd seen come down in terms of yardage, yards per play and all that kind of thing. The touchbacks coming out to the 30, I think, is what it was because if you look at why scoring was back up last year, the percentage of drives that ended in scores and the percentage of drives that were able to end in touchdowns were up. The league high, so the in 2024, the Lions led the league with 68 offensive touchdowns. In 2023, it was the 9ers at 60. The league high was, I have it as 59 in 2022, 61 in 2021. So they were way higher. Two more had 62. There's like eight total teams that broke 50. In 2023, only three teams broke 50 touchdowns. So I think just broadly on my projections, I'm projecting more TDs for the teams that are expected to score more points. And then I've had to allocate that a certain way to hit where Denver comes in in team rank for look ahead points. And in this case, I wound up having to put a lot of that on next. What about a 5.3% passing TD rate as a rookie, which is really strong. I don't like how many that I haven't projected for 30 TDs. Like there's definitely, or sorry, it's 5.1% on him. But I think I'm projecting 5.3. I don't like that. I feel like it's almost going to be a maybe a little bit of a sophomore slump. Part of the reason we both have, I think it's interesting we're so close on pass rate because we both have the pass rate coming down a little, which is I think probably for you guys and for me, definitely the improvement in the running back position. And I, you know, Peyton's old offense is often would run for a lot of TDs. The mark in Grom, Alvin Camarri years, right? I do think there's going to be a meaningful shift toward rushing in the red zone. I just don't think they could do that very well last year. So anyway, I just that's where I was at with the next passing TD stuff. I do think I'm a little hot here. Yeah, Denver did score 2.7 touchdowns per game last season. Their average team total on the look ahead lines is a little bit less than last year. So I think we're factoring in a little bit of regression there. We have them at 2.3 touchdowns per game. So a decent fallback. And as you said, do have that split going a little bit more towards the rushing side of things that it's. Yeah. So I have them up at 2.7, which I think is because my scale is maybe just higher league wide. Yeah. That makes sense. Our average across the league is about 2.4 in terms of total touchdowns. I've met up higher than that. Yeah, we're like 2.47. So we have Denver. We are projecting Denver a little bit negatively relative to their line compared to some other teams too. So we have them slightly below average. I do have my average. I have them at 2.5. So my average is 2.5 and I have Denver slightly above. So there you go. So grouches numbers, probably a little bit closer what they did last year and somewhere in between what they did last year and their actual team total. We're kind of regressing them. I don't want to say double counting because we have our math kind of things. They ran a little bit hot on touchdowns last year in addition to their team total coming down a little bit. But that's the discrepancy there for Nix. With that said, we still have Nix ranked relatively well. We've got him, of course, now I'm losing it as we've got him. I guess we're a little bit behind ADP now. We've got him QB 12. He's QB 9 on underdog. So we do have him back a little bit and most of that's probably due to the TD stuff. But I didn't know we had a decent scramble rate on him. He was contributing a bit more on the ground at the tail end of last season and just putting the game log to that. You just saw the scramble rate be maybe a little bit higher middle of this season. He had some higher scramble games. If I'm trying to find the exact numbers. It's definitely an interesting thing to dial and people are probably wondering why we're spending so much time on it. But Nix has kind of been a weird ADP range where he's not a lead. Obviously, the elites can do some really elite stuff in terms of how they can score with the dual threat. We've talked through on some of the other shows some really interesting affordable QBs late. And Nix's price isn't that cheap. And so really dialing in what his ceiling outcomes look like in terms of this rushing stuff. And in terms of the past TD rate, because those are the big parts of the quarterback position. Obviously where you can get the spike ceilings, I think is huge. If you want to figure out whether or not you actually want to play Nix at a place that it actually does have some opportunity cost. Whether you're slightly behind or slightly ahead on him, I think you have to be able to tell yourself a story at his opportunity cost that he can finish top five that he can have a real ceiling. And I think the profile isn't terrible. One thing about him that's really exciting is he scrambled the decent amount as you're talking about, but also was almost never sacked. One of the big things we see with the quarterbacks at scramble a lot and we've talked about this with other guys, they also carry sac rates because they tend to just hold the ball and they're like playmaker types. And then you have guys like Michael Penix, we talked about with him a little doesn't scramble as much for how athletic he is. It's like surprisingly low, but it's also because he doesn't take any sacks. He gets the ball out. I always think of this in terms of like late career Tom Brady. If if Tom Brady, if they didn't have a protection in front of Tom Brady, he would just throw the ball away. He wouldn't take the sack, lived a plan other down, always got the ball out, didn't scramble at a high rate either. He just gets the ball out. It's a pocket passer, if you will. Nix, really an intriguing element of his rookie year was that he had both a good scramble rate and didn't take sacks, which is in part because our offensive line is basically a lead. And so that is helpful too, but it's a really good skill for him going forward. Yeah. And looking more at his rushing numbers by game, it was a little bit more use-shaped than I remember where he kind of was scrambling a lot out of the gate. And then it seemed like they were trusting him to drop back more. He was getting the ball out more, but then he closed this season with some higher rushing performances rush for at least 20 yards in each of the last five games that includes the playoff game where he was 4 for 43 there. So just noting that scramble rate was it was a little bit more up and down than I had remembered it. But yeah, I think we're overall just a little bit negative on him just kind of expecting, again a lot of that goes back to the touchdowns and then not having them overly heavy on pass volume makes it a little bit tougher for our ranks to get there on nicks. Let's go to running back because this is a huge one. RJ Harvey, rookie a lot of people are really in on. We are a little bit behind ADP on Harvey. I think I noted on the AFC East podcast that we prefer Henderson to Harvey. The edge that Harvey might have, I know and we see this in the projections where Gretchen has him for 57 targets, 43 catches, where at 43 targets, 32 catches. Sean Payton teams historically have thrown into the running back quite a bit and you could see where that could happen again if you even just break down their skill players, the wide receiver group for Denver's not very good, but they do bring over Evan Ingram who could suck up more volume. And that's sort of one of our discrepancies right now is we've got a little bit more of of that target buying going to tide it. and Evan Ingram and Gretch has it going to the running back position. Yeah, historically, as you said, a lot of targets to the running back position. I made the case last year that they could not only have the most running back targets, but run away from the other 31 teams. They did not. The way that I, when I wrote that up over at my newsletter, the way that I said it was, I would be shocked if they didn't finish top five in the league and running back targets. They did still finish fourth in the league and running back targets, despite what I would call basically a 10th or 20th percentile outcome for that from a position group standpoint, particularly because as we'll get to the receiver position late in the year, they started using Marvin Mims as their pass catching back, basically. They would line them up in the backfield, use them on swing passes a bunch. Because I think the reason I say it's 10th or 20th percentile outcome for what happened last year is I think that Sean Payton really did not like the running back city had last year. Javante Williams was not very good. Then Julio McLaughlin and Andrec Estima and these guys weren't displacing Javante Williams, which I think speaks negatively about what he thinks of those guys. I think the off season moves validate that point. They let Javante Williams walk the guy that they played far and away the most snaps all year last year, including the line share of the playoff game, despite, again, not really looking like he had a lot of burst. But because he could do the things that Payton wants, particularly is a really good pass protector. Then they bring in two new backs. They draft the day two back and this is going to be the rookie running back show because all four of the teams in the FC West have a prominent rookie running back. They add to their backfield, which is pretty cool. But you bring in Harvey, you draft him in the second round ahead of ADP for some relative to some rankings in those types of things. He comes in as the RB five in this class where everyone knew it was a deep class and everyone kind of knew who the top four backs were. They were probably going to be the first four off the board in the real draft. But it was going to be intriguing. Who else could slot into day two? There was a bunch of names that were rumored. Harvey comes in in round two on day two as the RB five and that's good draft capital for a team that's out there looking for a back. But I'm with you. I think he's you know the the price has been going down a little. I don't think he's corrected enough relative to the fact that after that, then JK Dobbins gets added as well. And Dobbins was good last year. When I did the running back projection here, one of the big things you'll see about Harvey and they talk about is he graded poorly in pass blocking and that's going to be important because they played Javonte Williams at Thomas Naps last year again because of his pass blocking. Dobbins I think is going to do he's going to be that guy for Peyton the veteran that does the things that I need you to do to stay on the field. So I think he could see early cracks at the Javonte role essentially. And he's going to be I think reliable. I think the big thing about Dobbins was he I think he was like a success right runner last year. We didn't see the long speed, but he's still making guys miss his mistackles. Four stuff was good and he was able to get positive yardage on a lot of runs. And that I think can be really useful in the red zone as well. So I was talking about those high value touches. The receiving plus goal line work as running back ceiling. I think Dobbins probably plays a lot of pass downs. I think he probably from a running style perspective is a is an element in the red zone. It's is factoring in there and we know Peyton has used multiple backs in the red zone before last year. He would use multiple backs. Sometimes every other down. I was a big Javonte guy last year. And it'd be a little annoying. Javonte would get a carry and then they pull him for Jalil McGolf in the very next snap because Javonte first stretch there wasn't scoring a lot of TDs. I'm like man just leave him in there. But that also tracks with Peyton's history where you know, Mark Ingram and Alvin Camarro those guys would split rushing touchdowns. So I think I think Harvie's really good. I want to point that out. The comp I would use for his receiving would be buck yearving last year where bucky didn't grade well as a pass blocker either and Rashad White was a very good pass blocker and that kept Rashad White on the field and obvious pass downs. But bucky still had a strong number of targets because when he was on the field he would be out on a route and more likely to get the pass like one of those swing passes to Marvin Mims I was talking about kind of designed space touches in Sean Peyton's offense. Do you think those will go to RJ Harvie after they invested so much draft capital in him and they want to use him. I think he's going to play a ton. I think he's got plenty of upside. He's sort of the anti fragile play in this backfield etc. I do like the Dobbins profile though when you dig into it. I like them both. I think they're both really intriguing and Dobbins obviously had a much cheaper price point. Yeah. One of the reasons we're a little bit lower on Harvey. Again, I referenced JJ's Act recent prospect profiles a lot. Really enjoy what he does with his prospect guide over at latrown.com. But he puts a score from like zero to 100 on these guys that this model that he's worked on over years that takes into account the draft capital and different metrics from college for the production for all the players. He's got Trevian Henderson with a Zapp score of 94.1 and then he's got RJ Harvie more like 84.2. He was drafted much earlier than expected. He's definitely an older back. I think JJ said it's the first back at 24 years old like ever to get drafted in the top 100 since he's been doing stuff with his model and just kind of has the actual receiving production in colleges as fine but not as much of a plus as maybe the market sees it and especially in conjunction with the Sean Payton stuff. So I'm with you where I see the upside but again, kind of broken record doing this with the rookie receivers again with the rookie running back kind of just going like the better prospect and draft capital when the market in terms of fantasy is sort of really maybe overly leaning to the landing spot. You did know he's starting to get cheaper though. So and again in redraft 2, I might be a little bit more in on swing for the upside in this profile. So he starts to drop. Yeah just like this ticks around. Just to add another note there like the main thing I was focused on I was talking about that was like the valuable usage for fantasy and I think JJ's model if I remember looks at some statistical markers and age and those types of things which don't really speak well for Harvey. If you dig into like some of the peripheral stuff that I like to talk about the mistackle force the yards after contact stuff that stuff all looks really really strong for Harvey for like three years in a row. He looks like a guy who's a legitimately really good running back like good at evading tackles good at yards after contact good at creating and so I do think he's going to have like good efficiency right it's the question is just like is he a little bit too like between the 20s kind of a thing and I don't think you know JJ's model would say any different and I don't think you were saying any different it's just that he's very he's priced very aggressively right but the upside definitely there and I think you know JJ's model even points to kind of like the big playability and the upside being there the question mark is is he really going to earn as much pass volume as we think are we overly doing that because the Sean paid and stuff and just in general like more volatility just as and how good the player is overall versus you know some other back but price is getting more favorable so it's a tougher decision when he was going like I mean for while there he was going like almost like end of four he was really getting boosted up there now he's more like the five six turn it's definitely more palatable probably not as much of an adjustment after the dobbin signing as I would have expected like before dobbins was there I like his I mean this price was aggressive but I I felt like he was going to dust these other guys on the depth chart that Peyton didn't seem to want to use last year dobbins is a legit good veteran for what Peyton likes which is like do the right things he's like Javonte but with some juice you know like and Peyton was playing Javonte a ton last year so it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out but two good backs yeah and we might end up coming up a little bit on both of them if we do shift some target share to the running back position we're a touch low overall probably won't get quite toward grutches who grutch you've also got dobbins at 57 targets so both dobbins and harbiet 57 targets were lighter there at 38 in terms of carriers were like that on we're at 170 for harbiet grutches at 162 for dobbins were at 123 grutches at 125 if you do boost up even the targets somewhere in between were grutch and I have them he's probably a target right now in the double digit rounds let's go to sorry go as we go to the other positions there's an interesting part of Peyton's positional target shares over time so last year the running back only had about 20.5 percent by my numbers of the targets the year prior they had 26.8 percent I'm projecting 24 percent so kind of in between not 26.8 percent in 2023 was with Russell Wilson who typically hadn't thrown to the backs a lot this was a part of why I was so optimistic going into last year because bonics did throw the backs a lot in college and then you mentioned the tight end rate so they were at 12.5 percent last year 11.1 the year prior I've got them up to 17.5 this year because of the addition to ingram who's basically just gonna play wide receiver right like he's not even like a traditional tight end necessarily probably gonna play a lot of slot receiver I do think it shifts toward the tight ends here but the big note from last year running back and tight end was down was that wide receiver target shares were at like 63 percent what I have and the Peyton numbers back with the Saints they were always in the 50s in the low 50s or the high 40s potentially other than you know the Michael Thomas dominant years but even then the secondary receivers wouldn't catch a lot of passes. He throws to the running backs and the tight ends more I think than a lot of code or his play, his offensive system designs, you know, plays that create those types of opportunities is what I should say. But that's the way that I'm, the reason I'm shifting back again is I think some of those Marvin Mims targets, especially, we're basically running back targets that went under the White receiver category. So I'm kind of shifting it back that way on a team level. Yeah, I'm definitely curious, you're take, you know, with all that in mind on Courtland Sutton, we have him a little bit earlier than ADP with about a 20% target share. He was at 25% last year and really closed the season with some really high target share games was a little bit up and down. I think there's one week in there where he actually didn't play very much. We actually, we have 0% for one week and still have him, you know, kind of averaging out to like almost a 25% target share. So I feel like our inputs conservative. He's not necessarily a player that we love in terms of like he could see some touchdown regression. He's older than you think he is like he's entering his age 30 season, but man, there's not a lot of competition behind him. You've got the rookie pap, right? You've got Marvin Mims who they were reluctant to give a lot of routes to, even though he was successful on a per route basis. So ultimately that puts us at 110 targets for sudden. Like I said, I think our projection though does lean a little conservative in part because the market's treating him so conservatively, grattches out 126 targets, translates to 220 PPR points for gratt 196 for us. Yeah, Sutton's tough. The thing that jumps out with Peyton's whole lot, I was just talking about Peyton has a unique offense and I think it's important and this is a big part of the projection for me is just trying to dial in what he does. The thing that jumps out when you dig into last year's numbers is the routes like raw routes. So Cortland Sutton ran 587 routes, which is a lot. Getting up near 600 is a lot. He's basically an every down player in one of the receiver roles. Beyond him, you had four receivers that all played at least 13 games and none of them ran more than 315 routes. So that's like almost half. You basically have four guys. Devon Valle was second on a team and that includes Titans and running backs as well. Second on a team with 315 routes. You had both a little Jordan Humphrey and Troy Franklin between 250 and 300. Mims who had all these explosive plays you were talking about. He's only 196 for the whole year. He basically just never got a chance to play wide receiver. He got a lot of swing passes. He got a lot of quick hits like wide receiver screens. Then he got some deep shots. And he wound up having three receptions of 50 plus yards. One not even running 200 routes. I mean, it's kind of frustrating if you're a fan of Marvin Mims talent. And then this whole off season, Peyton's talked about how he likes size at receiver and these things. And so I don't have Mims projected very aggressively this year because I do think Peyton likes to do things rotationally. Basically outside that one sort of X receiver, which he used to be Michael Thomas, it was basically Jimmy Graham back even before Thomas. It was Marcus Colston prior to that. And then beyond that, if you think back to those Saints teams that have like Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meacham. And it was always rotational guys. You'd never get enough volume to be meaningfully fantasy relevant. We saw that at a high rate last year. And then they've added to that. So they draft Pat Bryant in round three on day two. Good draft capital for a guy that that that Sean Peyton immediately started talking about as a Michael Thomas clone, basically, which I don't think that's fair. If you go back to the college profiles, even and Michael Thomas famously was much better in the pros than his college profile sort of indicated. But if you go back to the college numbers, even on a per out basis, Thomas had really strong targets, brown run numbers was able to draw volume. And you could see that in the numbers. Brian's are good, but they're not great. His his volume earning. But Peyton immediately started talking about the size, the hands, the explosiveness off the line as being comparable to Michael Thomas. I do think he's going to be in this big receiver role that last year you have basically Devon Valle and Lil Jordan Humphrey sharing. So the four games that Valle missed Lil Jordan Humphrey runs 60 plus percent of the routes in the other games where Valle was in. He seemed to be the primary big wide receiver. But Lil Jordan Humphrey still ran routes of those four guys I was referencing the other two being Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin. They went over 70% routes in a game like any of them twice all season. Valle did it once and Lil Jordan Humphrey did it once in a game where Valle missed. Mims and Franklin Franklin got to 61 percent one time Mims when he started playing a little bit more late in the year. It was like 40% routes or 45%. So it just was frustrating to see from a fantasy perspective because you really do need to consolidate routes to get the real ceiling. And I think when you add Brian in there him and Valle are going to be kind of the Valle and Lil Jordan Humphrey from last year where they're both going to play in that bigger wide receiver role for that secondary role. And then I think you have Mims and Franklin sort of both playing in a third role that can accommodate smaller stature because both of them are smaller receivers. But then I mentioned with Ingram they also add him to the mix and I think he's going to play in the wide receiver slots a decent amount as well and some of the quote-unquote three or be two tight ends set. But it's sort of a three receiver set where Ingram factors in as well. And I just think the routes are going to be really really split in this offense. You'll see that when we get to the tight ends. I'm a lot lower on Ingram. But Sutton is the one dude. It's a meaningful thing to me that he was able to run 587 routes last year and no one else ran more than 315. I mean he's the one guy in this offense that I feel confident can actually hit a real route number, a famously viable routes number. Yeah, that's kind of how we see it. We're a little hot on Mims right now but hearing you talk through it is possible. We spread that out a little bit more. It's a tough conversation though because if they were to give Mims more routes, obviously the targets per out run would come down because he's getting a lot of gimmicky stuff. But there's still a 28% targets per out run, 2.55 yards per out run. The yards per target was good at 9.1. You mentioned it's like that fun mix of some give me screen stuff and then some big playability which is kind of what you want from a fantasy perspective. So I go back and forth on that where I'm like, "Oh, I'm uncomfortable that we have this pro Mims position when I don't know if they're going to trust him with more routes." The flip side is the efficiency was just so strong and he did still hit 55 targets last year so you don't need to do a whole lot of projection work. It was at least the best ball to kind of say like, "Hey, this dude maybe is like okay if you can even get him to 70 targets." For reference on the actual projections, we have Mims at 59 right now, Gretches at 54. We have Pat Bryan at 46, Gretches at 57, we have Troy Franklin at 38, Gretches at 57, we have Belay at 38, Gretches at 32. So you've got it definitely a little bit more spread out from wide receivers 2 through 4. You guys do too and I think rightfully, we're both between 30 and 60 targets for four guys between wide receiver 2 and wide receiver 5 which is weird. None of our other projections look like that and that's because last year behind Sutton, you had Javante Williams did have 70 targets as a second on the team. Those other four guys I mentioned that were between 196 and 315 routes. They all were between 45 and 55 targets. They were all tightly clustered and again it wasn't purely because of mis time. There was a little bit of Belay missing some time and Lil' Jordan Humphrey seeing his plane time tick up as a result. But other than that, all these guys played at least 13 games. I mean it was just a rotational element. The games where they were all in together, they all ran at least 20% of the routes going down to the fifth guy, which just doesn't usually, I mean 20% doesn't sound like a lot, but for your fifth receiver to be out there one in five pass plays and also all the other receivers, right? Because you also run two tight information, some and those types of things. It really is unconsentreated. Let's go to Tide-N where we do have a bigger discrepancy and it's tough because it's a player switching teams and that's Evan Ingram where we've got 97 targets, Grutch is at 78. Grutch is usually a little hotter than us, so that's a pretty stark gap. The last two seasons with Jacksonville Ingram has had about 23, 24% target share where we've got him at right now is a ceiling target share of 22% and a base target share closer to like 17 to 18% for Ingram. So we have kind of a tight range there. Grutch mentioned last year the target share of Redembre in our, like we run on this team tendencies that we call where it's kind of tries to predict like the true target share allocation for a team. It's not purely descriptive, it's a little bit predictive and Denver finished the lowest in the league at Tide-N at 16.2%. So it's hard to know what to do between that number being such an outlier on the low end, but then you bring in kind of this high volume, kind of lower 8-A Tide-N into the mix and you don't have a lot of target competition for him given all the stuff we've mentioned at why receivers 2 through 5. Yeah, he's a really tricky one. I want, you talked about the target share stuff. I wound up at 13.5%. But that was like above the fray. For me, like I've sat in 23%. to and then I have Bryant, Mims, Franklin, and both RJ Harvey and Dobbins. Because again, I have more targets to the backs. All of those guys between nine and 10%, which is like 50% of the targets, you know, being split to those five players. Um, Ingram, I have it 13.5. So, you know, I'm basically like four percentage points higher than than the average of the rest of the offense. The big question I think is how much you think Ingram is this Joker, which has been talked about a lot this off season, both Peyton and the GM pattern have talked about the Joker role all off season after the Ingram signing because they had been talking about it. They're searched for the for the Joker role Peyton was asked if Ingram was that and this is these are notes I went back to that are compiled by the coach beat index. And so shout out to Greg who does also work there. Peyton was asked about Ingram being the Joker and he said he'd put him in that category that family I think he has those skill sets. That's the bullish quote right after the signing guy. And it's basically like, oh, yeah, if you're asking like he's not he's not going out of his way to be like, we found our Joker. They were like, is he the Joker and Peyton was like, yeah, I mean, he's in that family. And I just think I mean, previously Peyton had talked about how hard it is to find a Joker at the number 20 overall pick on the draft because they were asking them what they're going to do it number 20. And he was like, man, you can't really find a Joker at number 20 overall. The GM had said it's it's day gone hard to find the Joker. But he also said like, I've played again Sean Peyton teams when this Joker is crushing you. They referenced Michael Thomas and and Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush, but like really good talent, right? The idea of a Joker, I think Sean Peyton's idea of a Joker is like a true superstar focal point of an offense. And they've been like, we're trying to find that guy that we can just give the ball all the time. And you know, that's what I think is the bowl case for RJ Harvey. Like, maybe they view him as that because they've referenced running backs as a Joker as well. But to me, like, I think people in the fantasy community have talked a lot about how Evan Ingram's going to be Peyton's Joker. I don't see that in any of the comments. I think that's like they acquired a guy and they're not going to be like, yeah, we don't intend to use him. They talked about him favorably, but I don't see in the comments that they're like, we're going to do everything we can to get Evan Ingram the ball every single snap. And also Evan Ingram skill set is not better than what you can get at number 20 overall in a draft. You know what I mean? Like this idea that the Joker is really hard to find. And he's like a legit star. Evan Ingram's a low eight out player. He's athletic, but he's not actually had good yak. He's not been able to use that athleticism a ton in the NFL level. He's not been able to use it as a vertical receiver necessarily. I mean, there's a possibility. It's a lot of like low area targets. It's kind of like what Michael Thomas did when he was called Slantboy, right? But I just, I don't know. I'm not personally drawing the line between Evan Ingram and this Joker role, which then for me puts him in the group with a lot of rotational stuff behind the Sutton route. So we talked about. Yeah. And I know that with our projection being much more aggressive than Ben's, we're still across the board about around behind ADP on Evan Ingram. So if you have extra concern beyond our projection, he's definitely not that strong of a pick. The efficiency concerns that you hit on the uncertainty with the volume. And I just think it's a good year to avoid maybe that range when you've got guys like in Joe, who Andrews around later, you've got the rookies, you know, a few rounds later. Concave Ferguson, Goddard, we kind of hit on those guys on previous podcasts. Just not my favorite, you know, Ingram's a little bit in No Man's Land for me right now. And I'd probably avoid him at cost. Let's go to KC. We're both at about 64 plays per game a little bit higher than average around a 64% called pass rate. KC routinely one of the easier teams project from a team level because they are consistently so high PROE and they're consistently one of the stronger teams. I do think they ran, you know, a little bit hot last season in terms of just how games kind of broke their way. And to me, this is a good year to buy low on the homes. The cost has dropped so much from previous seasons, but I still a throw first team. And Ben, you're at 4500 yards where 4,300, you're at 35 touchdowns where 29 touchdowns. Again, Ben's stuff is always running a little hotter touchdowns, but they theoretically get Rishi Rice back and healthy. They get year two of Xavier worthy. I think, you know, they get Hollywood Brown not dealing with injury. He did the start of last season as wide receiver three, even if KC's declining some, I think those receiver games gains more than offset things. So, you know, you can play this obviously differently based on format, but in best ball, when I'm getting a KC wide receiver early to get my homes in the 80s is pretty, you know, easy thing to do. And I think a good idea. There's definitely some meat on the bone here. Yeah. And I mean, they obviously, they went what like 15 and one or whatever, 16 to one 15 and two last year played from ahead a lot last year. They're still strongly positive in PROE. We talked last year. They had been number one by your numbers, which I'm always, you know, citing Leonies numbers. He shoots me over some PROE data that's super helpful for my process. They were number one for like four or five straight years. And I think they were number two last year. They weren't quite number one. They did come back a little. I mean, obviously, their expected pass rate comes down when they're playing from ahead. But I also think a big part of it for them was they went into last year thinking they were going to have Rishi Rice and Hollywood Brown in addition to this first round rookie white receivers, Xavier Worthy. And they lose Hollywood Brown and week one and Rishi Rice in like week three or four or whatever it was. And Travis Kelsey certainly looked as age. We're going to talk about all those guys. But you're down to basically just your 21 year old first round pick Xavier Worthy and nobody else. I mean, they've had, that's the same issue they've had in the in the prior couple of years where they've had their secondary receivers who are just like replacement level players for the most part. I do think there's a thing that the pass rate could rebound this year because they're actually getting to do what they wanted to do last year. Where they they're able to get three, four guys out and routes that are better than replacement level players basically. And then the other big part of it is that I think when we get to the charges, I think the charges are very improved. I think Denver's going to be very good. I think that the Raiders might even be improved. This is a really good division. It's going to be tough. The chiefs always have a tough schedule because they're playing a first place schedule. They're going to have their annual matchup with the bills in the regular season. I think they get the Ravens again, right? Like they have to play all the tough teams. Their division has gotten tougher. I think they're going to be in some shootouts this year. They're going to be pushed a little bit more. So that's, I mean, could potentially be really favorable from a home. So I'm with you. I think he's undervalued. Yeah. And one no teams with the implied team total. If you average out the look ahead lines of 25 or greater, Washington, Philly, KC, Detroit, Baltimore, Buffalo, all those teams with the exception of KC, that average, you know, that team total is representing like a three to four point regression from what they did for KC. It's, it's assuming a two point plus improvement for them. So we talk about the pocket passers quite often being viewed in the market based on what they did last year. And that happens to my homes to an extent the last two years being disappointing. I think the market's finally like, okay, treating them more like an average pocket passer. And like we're saying that's that's not totally accurate. That's a great point. The regression for them may be positive. I have their touchdowns on a 17 game pace. I don't know if these are the exact numbers because I can't remember when the schedule went to 17, but they scored 53 and 59 in 2021 and 2022 offensive touchdowns. And then 37 in 2023. And that's why I think in 2024 they went through the offseason like we got to get back to scoring 50 plus offensive touchdowns. 37's not going to cut it. And then they only scored 41 last year because I had a bunch of injuries. And now there's two years in a row where they've been at 3741. But to your point, like the market's still pricing them to come back up because they were. If they can get closer, obviously defensive started playing this this team differently. It's been a little trickier. My homes is eight odd has come down, but they're trying to address that by adding Xavier worthy and by trying to throw deep. They've talked about how that's what they're going to do. This whole office he said this really worked with my homes. Matt Neggie said that my homes kind of has one focal point every offseason. And he said this offseason. It's the deep passing because he missed a lot of throws last year, frankly. They're really focused on improving that part of it and hitting on some deep balls. And in best ball. If you hit on the homes and you play the correlation angle, you can build out some pretty deep stacks with him with the cost of the specific players. And then you get one thing right. Casey throws more and scores 50 plus touchdowns. You're going to pay off a lot of your roster in that specific format. Let's go to running back though because running back is tricky. Pichako comes back late in the year from injury clearly wasn't himself. They end up trusting cream hunt a little bit more who didn't really offer any sort of upside for them. Just sort of that reliability and the goal line role. And they just trusted him out there. They bring in Elijah Mitchell. Kind of a player that was a higher efficiency player for San Francisco. And they also get the rookie brashard Smith. I haven't found myself. taking a lot of KC running back. I feel like in years past I'm usually more into that. We have Pichacco projected pretty similarly. We're slightly more optimistic at 177 Russia Tamps, 44 targets. You had 168 Russia Tamps, 37 targets puts you at 164 PPR points us at 172, but even with our slightly more optimistic numbers, we're kind of just like at break even with ADP on Pichacco right now. I think there's a little bit of over I think with Pichacco after, there's a lot of people are just discounting that Pichacco was playing heart last year and those things. I think I mean the mistackle four stuff, the yards after contact stuff cratered last year and they were never elite numbers or anything for him. He was often benefiting from the ways the defenses were playing, the chief slider boxes, deeper safeties, those things. And you can say that it may be the case that he was injured and playing, you know, coming back from that injury wasn't himself. I think that's the case as well, but I think the market is saying that that's definitely what happened. This is a former seventh rounder. There's a pretty substantial possibility that his best football is now behind him that it happened in those first couple of years with non elite running backs. It often is the case that their peak is just maybe their first couple of years and then they're just never really the same guy necessarily. I don't think that's definitely true. I have in my notes that the splits going to make the projections look worse than the upside. If it's actually consolidated and that's very possible for Pacheco, I do have Pacheco to lead this backfield and like him to lead this backfield. But a large mental still a young enough back that he could have a meaningful role. You mentioned that they trusted Hunt last year. I was surprised that Hunt's contract was expired and they gave him 800,000 fully guaranteed to come back after nobody signed him last off season and you know, they signed him in season and he wasn't very good, right? I mean, he was okay, but like for what they were looking for, he was reliable, but his his advanced numbers were not good at all. They were very bad and then they paid him early in the off season a good chunk of money to come back. They paid Elijah Mitchell early in the off season a good chunk of money to come in and compete on early downs. So I do think there's this possibility that Pacheco is just not the lead. I am projecting it that he is. I'm just saying that I think when you think probabilistically, probably a bigger percent of the time than the market is factoring in. Pacheco's best days are sort of behind him. The thing for the backs that I got into and you may notice is I have a pretty big receiving role for Bershard Smith because when I got into this, Hunt, not a good receiver. Elijah Mitchell has never been a receiver. Pacheco does get targets and I haven't projected for targets to, but never really that efficient in the receiving game. Bershard Smith has a good receiving profile. My podcast co-host over at Staling-Bedannis-Shon Segal has been very into Bershard Smith and he's a cheese fan and he's been telling me that he's going to have a real role in the passing game. I think this gets back to what we were talking about with my home's potentially passing more and they've been talking about it. Again, the coach big index stuff has been helpful for me on this, but they've been talking about Smith potentially having a role. I think he might be that Jeric McKinney, the vaunted Jeric McKinney role. We've been trying to find for the last couple years. You go back to 2022. McKinney had 71 targets. He had 32 and 12 games in 2023. 13 TDs over those two years. He was a little bit, and 2022 was the last good my home's passing year. The 71 targets, nine touchdowns receiving that year was pretty impactful. Having that receiving threat out of the backfield was pretty impactful for my home's. Smith is another one of these converted wide receivers like Tyrone Tracy and Antonio Gibson before him. These guys that played a little receiver in college and switched over. One of the things that Seagull was saying to me when we were talking about Jada and Blue is part of the reason he was a little down on blue. He's like, when the Cowboys took Blue in the fifth round, if they wanted that profile that could have taken just a far superior player on Bershart Smith. That's his take on the situation and that's kind of stuck with me because Smith ends up going two rounds later. He's a seventh round pick. I don't think people are super into him. The chiefs have though said that they he was the top running back on their board multiple rounds earlier. That's again, Pershart, but that's something that he referenced to me as well. It seems like they really like Smith and they potentially have a vision for him in the passing game. When I went through the projection, I started to see that vision from what my buddy had been telling me that the other backs don't really fit that. I do think Smith could have a real meaningful role. Yeah, it's one I'm keeping my eye on. We're a little bit more conservative right now and what Grutch is talking about on those numbers is a 44 target projection for him on Bershart Smith. We're only at 18 targets, similar rush volume though. Just to be concerned with like when you get into like these seventh rounders, these real late picks, as Rosie as they talk about them, the risk that the really just isn't a role here. I do think if you like Smith, now it's tough because I think now is like a decent time to gamble. Just normally I would say not to gamble until we get more information. The one thing we've seen with KC and past off seasons, it's going to happen again as Pershart Smith's going to get his chances and you're going to see some beat rider tweet out Pershart Smith's getting first team reps. They do it every year with their backup running backs and people lose their minds. Who is it? Darwin Thompson and then last year was Dinarik Rains. I just I remember last year so specifically because it happened with Dinarik Smith or Dinarik Prince and everyone's like talking about always getting these first team reps and if you literally Twitter search the year prior first team reps for running back, it was just some other rando for it. Although it was Pacheco and that's what people have been chasing. Pacheco was a seventh rounder and it was him first and then he was good. So I'm just torn on on the Bershart Smith. I like it end of round for redraft for sure because if he turns into a drop, he turns into a drop. It doesn't matter. A little shake here in the 18 round basketball where those picks like are a little bit more valuable. He is the former wide receiver running back who does have some explosiveness. He's exciting. So I don't know. It's definitely a back feeling to keep an eye on but probably my biggest takeaway right now is I'm like not super into Pacheco at this point. Just a little bit worried and just kind of monitoring what's going to happen behind him. I agree with that. I think he's a really fragile profile this year. Let's go to Rishi Rice and I'll note right off the bat that we're a little conservative on Rishi Rice just due to the injury last year. He had a PCL injury. There's some confusion looking up the injury because he underwent surgery to repair his LCL but it was kind of a weird injury. Something about a corner, a lateral corner or something. I didn't know there was corners in these but yeah. It's weird. Yeah. Not something I've heard of before. The thing Jack sent me is you know it says it is certainly possible and likely that the LCL was injured as a result of the mechanism of this injury. The complexity of a PLC injury necessitates that this is not the only structure involved however. Long story short, it's not a very common injury. If quick luck makes it seem like just like an LCL repair but it's a little bit more complicated than that. Early signs I've seen like they're fine and that he's good but we're just being a little conservative. We've had some of these injury guys where they come back they look good especially these weird injuries with like you know Pollard Andrews some of these other guys. So we're just being a little conservative but that puts us at 114 targets grutches at 137. Xavier worthy grutches at 124 we're at 102. The rice one's really interesting because if you guaranteed no suspension which it does not look like it's going to happen the date of his civil court case I believe got moved after this season. I see Grouches doing me a favor changing Hollywood Brown's name the Marquis Brown in my projections because we have a name mismatch you can put it back to Hollywood I'll change it. I changed it on my side so thank you. So for Hollywood grutches 75 targets we're at 73. We've got both Hollywood and worthy at targets at cost especially for basketball. Were these one of the players I've drafted a lot of early on. Rice was someone that I thought was a really good gamble for a while and even still and full PPR I mean if this guy's fully healthy he's close to a one two turn pick. I think that the first 15 16 picks in this draft are so strong in the fantasy draft are so strong this year that I'm probably not pushing him ahead of the middle of the second round right now but in full PPR I think he's fine and a two even with our slightly conservative projection I know on draft Kings is ADP 21.8 our rank is 21. I'm trying to check FFPC so I'm assuming that his rank or his ADP that was going to be more aggressive I have not drafted those but no I'm right it's 26.2 right now on FFPC so you can still get him and a two more times. than not, but yeah, thoughts on Rishi. - Well, I think the Rishi versus worthy sort of debate, they were going closer and learning the offseason, there's been a little bit of a gap widening, rice has risen, and I do think that's right, but I think it's, I guess somewhat silly. I've seen the notes in the fantasy community, and people have sort of taken sides, and then they're attacking the other one. I think there's strong cases for both, and I don't see the reason that you have to be down on the other one, 'cause I don't think their roles really overlap. People like to talk about manufactured touches, negatively for worthy, and then I've also seen it referenced with rice. I don't think, I mean, rice gets a decent number of quick hits, not a crazy number, and then he has a very low A dot, because he runs routes into the short intermediate range. He's a zone beater, he's sitting down, and then he's really good after the catch. So like, I've referenced this depth adjusted to the racer number I use for my efficiency. It adjusts for A dot, and rice is very low. His depth adjusted racer is very, very high, because his yak numbers are very high. He's very good at like the first step after a reception, making sure he's getting up fueled, and getting a lot of yards. Because of the way that defenses have taken away the deep stuff, especially from my homes, I think a lot of the cover two shell stuff was almost targeted at my homes in Josh Allen, and some of these guys that were crushing down the field, it was like we can't just let Tyree Kill continue to beat us in that stuff several years ago. Because of that, I mean, I think it was sort of the Kelsey role that was the short intermediate range, and then you're looking at Kelsey as sort of aging, and you're like, okay, well, she writes, can maybe take that over last year. And he was off to a huge targets per out run, building off the very strong end of the 2023, before the injury, he had an interesting stretch, where he averaged 6.6 receptions per game, for eight games through the post season at the end of his rookie year. He first ran 70% routes, late in that regular season, and then from that point forward, and through the playoffs, he had this big stretch, 6.6 receptions per game. Worthy had a similar progression last year. So people are hammering, worthy, he's a gadget player, he can't, he's too small. Worthy didn't catch five balls in a game until about, it was week 12 or week 13, and then he caught five plus passes in every single game, he played the rest of the way, it was like three or four regular season games, and all four post season games. So he had about an eight game stretch as well, where he went, suddenly he's a five plus catch guy, every single game, and a lot of that was manufactured, as people have pointed out, but it's good to have manufactured touches. It's good that your team wants to get the ball in your hands. He's a 21 year old rookie, who came on late in the year, turned 22 in April. He's a, I mean, even a young 21 year, a lot of the 21 year olds we talk about are turning 22 in season, or right after the year, and this guy was very, very young. I do think the size is a bit of an issue. He also was the fastest guy in combined history. So the tradeoff with the sizes, you have incredible speed. People have talked about how in the Super Bowl, the two long touchdowns where after the game was decided, the Eagles had their backup defense for the last one. I don't think those things are false. They also were playing deep coverage. They did not want to allow quick strikes, even though the game was mostly in hand, and Worthy still got behind the defense, those plays still happened. And if you watch the season, Worthy missed on several of those plays with my homes throughout the year. There's a little concern in his profile at Texas, where his after the target efficiency, he earned a lot of volume, but as yards per target stuff, not as dominant as you would like to see. And we saw a little bit of that in the rookie year, but I'm willing to bet on it because Patrick Mahomes is a yards per target elevator at quarterback. It's also the reason I agree with you that Marquis Brown is interesting, because his yards per target has declined steadily from the early part of his career. And he's not actually been very good in after the target efficiency for several years. Now, he barely played last year, but with him back this year, that's the other way, that's the other thing you're doing, if you're betting on him, is you're betting on Mahomes being an after the target efficiency elevator for these down field guys. I think they're gonna be, some manufactured touches around the line of scrimmage for Worthy especially and vertical stuff. And if he hits on some of those splash plays, he's, I mean, if you would have caught two or three of those deep balls last year, people would have a much different perception of him. The fact that he didn't, people are down on him and they want to discount what did happen in the Super Bowl. He did have a decent down field catch in the AFC championship game where he was the focal point of the offense in a win. He's been their guy late in the year. And I think going into year two, you have to expect that he's gonna continue to be a focal point. I do like Rice Moore because if Worthy is a hit, I think Rice gets brought along is my take. I think, I think Rice is a hit him himself. But if Worthy is able to get down field and make plays down field, it just opens up the underneath stuff I was talking about for Rice that much more. And I think you have both Worthy and Rice working symbiotically and doing very, very well together in those situations. I also think if Worthy's struggles that Rice can succeed sort of without Worthy. And so I'm pretty into Rice. I do think the high-togious proud run stuff, the things he's able to do. Now the health stuff that you mentioned is obviously the big, big caveat. I may be under valuing that in my projection a little and blowing past that a little bit. But really like those guys. And then Kelsey fits into this. I just wanna mention him too real quick. Obviously we'll get to the tie-downs. But the reason I'm a little bit down on him, he was over 12 yards per section every year until 2023. When he was at 10.6, then he was all the way down to 8.5 yards per section in 2024. His mistackle force per touch rate, typically in the teens in 2023, he got down to 0.159. Last year it was 0.045, basically a quarter of the mistackles force that he had had the year prior. Basically just catching the ball and going down now. His yak perception is really cratered. He caught 97 balls last year. He's still gonna earn targets, but he's a very different player, especially going into 2025 now than he was. And I think with Worthy, Rice, healthy, I'm expecting them to do to lean on Kelsey a little less. And I think that takeover was starting to happen early last year and that it didn't really fully happen. But if Rice is healthy, that's what I would expect in 2025. - Yeah, I think we're mostly aligned here. I was glad to hear what you said about where the 100% agree if you had just caught a couple more of those long touchdowns. He was really close on last year. You wouldn't be able to say like, "Oh, he's just a gimmick guy." His cost I think would be much more elevated. So really just in on, I think it's such a great time to buy KC 'cause not only are you buying low, but I think the roles are more defined than they've been in the past. Where there's been other years where people have been in on KC and they don't know who to draft or who to take. And we're a pretty clear indicator here. As far as Kelsey goes, the market really is building in the age stuff for Kelsey. Can't say someone I like super wanted to go out in my way to draft, but I don't think like he's undrafted. I mean, you might have caught eight, 97 balls last year. There just aren't a lot of tight ends that do that. Even with both of us having a lower expectation, we've got 99 targets on him, you've got 100. So we're both in low 70s in terms of balls caught. But even that's like a pretty solid number for a tight end. Not to make this a pro Kelsey thing or anything. I don't think he's like this buy that you're like going out of your way to get. I just don't think if he's slipped in a draft, you can view-- - He's not a draft ball. - That he's on draft, that he's like this falling knife that you don't want to catch. Like you can catch it. You can win in a lot of leagues just having that decent week-over-week volume at a tight end. - It feels like at a certain cost, he would have been the sort of small hit big misprofile I talk about, but the cost bakes it in enough that he can be sort of moderate hit. And it's hard to be a big mis as cheap as he can be in some such situations. When he falls particularly, there's still some opportunity cost in some of the spots he goes. And I think that's the big question with him. I do think he probably beats like value on his draft slot in a lot of scenarios. - Yeah, definitely prefer him to Evan Anger at their respective costs right now. You can definitely wait. It's also a different cost on draft Kings. Kelsey's going much earlier than underdog. Part of that makes sense because it's a volume dependent play, but it might be a little bit overdone in my opinion. - The other small note on him, we talked about how the TDs were down in this offense. And his TD rate was way down to 2.6% last year, which doesn't happen for Travis Kelsey. He's been over 5%. Basically, I remember the year of his career, like double what his TD rate was last year. I would expect even with the stuff I noted about him, not breaking tackles and being old. I would expect his touchdowns to rebound. - Yeah, absolutely. Let's go on to the chargers. Here, we've got them below average in play calling. In terms of plays per game at 62, matches at 61.5. We're a little bit higher on call pass rate at 61.2% versus Grouch at 58.5% that results in a little over one full pass attempt per game more that we're projecting in about one more than one full rush attempt per game that we're projecting. I know going into last year, just really thought this chargers team was going to be extremely run heavy. They end up in PROE, negative 1.4%. But most of the league kind of shifted that way. They were actually in the top half of the league in terms of PROE. I'm trying to look at the breakdown by week, but I believe it was a situation where they did lean on. They definitely leaned on Herbert a lot more the second half of the season. They were very run heavy team. we expected out of the gate. and then lead on him a little bit more. That's part of the reason that we're heavier on the pass right. I can see I'm guessing you're coming from the angle of like hey, they signed Nausea Harris and they drafted him Mario and Hampton, they want to get back a little bit more to the ground game. So thoughts on the play calling. - Yeah, there's this great writer at this site called "establish the Rundin" might have heard of, named Jack Miller, who wrote about contextualizing 2024 play call, League. He was breaking it down sort of, I think, more that way as I looked through it where he was thinking the really heavy run lean early before, you know, Jacob Dobbins has some injuries and some of that stuff could potentially, he closed that section and pulling up right here saying, it's worth being cognizant of how run heavy they started last year as well as how they became even more perhaps artificially pass heavy in the games that Dobbins missed. I don't think he was necessarily saying that they're gonna be run heavy, but they have talked about running the ball more this off season, they brought him a guy back in a run blocking guard to strengthen their offensive line even further. I think there's possibly improved game scripts, game script here 'cause I think this is really, one of the things, when I went through the projection and started looking at their depth chart, I love the team building here. I think they've addressed depth and redundancy at a bunch of key spots. Like a good example is you have Lad McHonkey, he's a key player for your team, you wanna build around him, but you wanna have a vertical threat that is stressing defenses, you know, downfield the create space for Lad McHonkey, you already had, Quentin Johnston, but probably wasn't good enough. So you go out and you get Mike Williams in free agency, then you also draft Trey Harris, and then you also draft Key Andre Lambert Smith at the end of the draft is another vertical receiver. They got like four options to provide good vertical route running to open things up for Lad McHonkey who has to hit for you, right? They go and get Najee Harris, they also go get Amarie and Hampton. They add to a good offensive line, they have two great tackles, they add a good guard. They're like, "We're gonna have a good offensive line regardless." They had a good tight end in Will Dizzley, had a good year last year, but missed some time. You gotta have redundancy 'cause guys missed time, they go get Tyler Conklin, who's like a freaking redundant piece for Will, like I didn't know how to allocate the tight end target shares, and I looked at your guys as I'm just gonna say, full disclosure, I changed my targets after I saw you guys where a little higher on Dizzley, I was a little higher on Conklin, but it's like, I don't even know, either of those guys have cases for, you know, some decent target earning, and they drafted Aronde Gadsden, who I think is a really nice day three upside tight end swing. So this is just a, I think they did similar things on defense. This is just a team where, you know, last year, the holes they thought they had, the last year they had Quentin Johnson, they had Darius Davis, they had Kick or Turner, they had Jalen Rager, they were just okay as those vertical elements. So they go out and they add all these guys that can now stress defenses. And they even did it, like they have both Taylor Heinecke and Train Lances back up QB options. Like they're really trying to be redundant in a lot of different ways, where most NFL teams basically just find one guy and hope that he works at all the different things that they need to fill. The charges, I don't know, I really like the way they're built. And I think they're gonna be good because of it. 'Cause I think that helps you in a lot of different scenarios when you start to run into injuries and stuff. And that I think helps GameScript. And I think that leads to potentially a few more run situations throughout the year as well. But the McKay-Bakton one is the big one, that guard, he's a big run blocking guard that will help them run. And then obviously the improvement at running back. Yeah, and I think we'll probably end up bringing our pass, right? Maybe more like 60% as we talk through it. To make them a touch, run heavier. Let's go to running back though. I don't think there's too much to talk about in terms of Herbert. They draft Omarian Hampton early. Of course they did sign Najee Harris. So you've got kind of the veteran who's been a workhorse back in the past, but it hasn't really flashed any sort of playmaking upside in Omarian Hampton. We've got Hampton at 203 carries. You've got 190. We're both around 40-ish targets. It puts us right around 195 full PPR points, 180 or so, half PPR points. Najee were very similar in terms of the projection. We're touch lower on carries, but a touch higher on targets leading to 140-ish full PPR points for both of us. Right now, I think you can make the argument that both of them are honestly fine buys at cost, especially if you're bullish on the team overall kind of like Gretchen's talking about. Yeah, I guess minor worry is just 59 running back targets last year, really low 11.6% running back target rate. And I guess I don't know that that's going to, Omarian Hampton as a prospect looks really good. And in one of the things that's really exciting or was really exciting about him is he can kind of do everything. He's got size, he can catch the ball, he can run, he can do all the things you need to do. But he goes to this system, Greg Roman system, that's pretty run, you know, gym, harboss system, that's pretty run based. And we were just talking through the run pass rate. I'm a little bit worried that it's going to be run based and then play action, you know, shot place. A lot of these vertical receivers I was talking about and not as much passing to the backs, which is a little bit of a problem. Now the flip side of that is the touchdowns. There's big rush TV rates for both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards last year. The team was 2317 in terms of past rush touchdowns, which is a pretty meaningful rush lean, frankly. So I think there's rush TV upside for these guys. Hampton's the rookie in this range that I have a little bit of a harder time with, I guess, even though I want to be really into him. It's because of Naji too, they got him on a one year deal, gave him a good, you know, strong guarantee on a one year deal. I do expect plenty of Naji work early. And we expect things to shift to Hampton over time. So you get that late season upside and he's certainly the late season play. But I mean, Naji, they're talking really favorably about him. He can make guys miss his Miss Tackle's force numbers are fine. He just doesn't really create big plays off that. I think they've talked about these guys as being like mirror images of each other. I think the big difference is Omar and Hampton once he makes guys miss has the explosiveness to then go hit for big plays. But they're otherwise pretty similar. They're both big backs. They're going to make guys miss in space and those things that I think it's going to be tough for Hampton to really wrestle away a ton of work. And so I do think late in the year that can happen. But for most of the year, I think as touches maybe a little bit less appealing than that I would want them to be for a rookie back. Yeah. And then the receiving may not be as high as you'd like to see for a real ceiling. And so that's the tricky part for me with Hampton. Yeah. There's definitely acknowledged those concerns over this ceiling relative to the target chair for Hampton to think he's just a really great prospect. And historically, I mean, look at the last five or so years. It was first round running backs. Just I mean, the correlation in those very early running backpicks on the draft capital to the production the first couple of years, you're generally getting one or two really good seasons out of these backs. I know that's a little bit simplistic. But if you go back, it's pretty much every year. These guys end up getting to work in some capacity. And you get the 22nd overall pick going to Hampton on a team that just churned out an extremely efficient season for JK Dobbins. So I'm still I think in on him. You just sold me. I'm saying you're talking about how good I think they're going to be. What if Najee misses time? I mean, now you have to lead back in an offense that I think is going to be really good. And I just made a case is going to be fairly run heavy as well. You're never so right-by. You're not worried about Najee anyways. I mean, Najee, I think, is more of the best ball play where it's like you don't have the lot of the upside. But if the team's good and they put the carries, he's going to have a lot of those usable weeks for you, which is where he comes in as good value, that you might not value that much in a redraft setting. But yeah, so I don't know. I'm not like crazy in on Hampton. I'm definitely not out at cost. I think he goes about where he should be. I think in PPR leagues, counterintuitively, just looking at the ADP, the pass catching ceilings may be over-accounted for by the market. And then that puts you in a spot where you're drafting him at the four or five turn or so. And there's just not a lot of first round running backs, especially ones that we agree with the NFL in terms of the talent, in terms of being deserving of being the first round running back where they're not going to pay off a four or five turn tag regardless of the scoring system. Let's go to the wide receiver position. Lad Mcconkey was a huge part of the team. Again, they threw more of the second half of the season. He's a huge beneficiary. You've got him at 139 targets. We're at 119. The difficult question in the lab is like the market's on the lab. There's no year to sneak in a breakout here, given how strong the rookie season was. I think for him, it was particularly strong because his yards per out run numbers in college were so seemingly good that he answered a lot of the question marks specifically for him that almost made his yards per out run in his total volume season, like maybe even better than it might have been for someone else just highlighting his strengths and overcoming kind of the perceived weaknesses for Lad. The big issue though is just the cost. He is a middle of round two pick right now. We talk about Rishi Rice. He's going ahead of Rishi Rice right now. I think in full and in draft Kings basketball, he's going even ahead of AJ Brown. So I'm curious where you place Lad among those wide receivers. I like him, McOff, frankly. And I do think it's a lofty cost, but I think you said everything very well. He answered a lot of those questions. He was able to hold up throughout the year. I made the case with Worthy that like he was, we know with rookies, they come on a little bit slower in their rookie season. I don't even know if you can call it slow, but their production often is better in the second half of the year. And I made that case with Xavier Worthy just a moment ago. It happened with LAD. He never had more than eight targets before week 11. He was good. And he was a very good person early in the year. Week 11 he has eight targets for the first time. Closes with eight plus targets and five of the final eight, including the playoffs. Wasn't below six in any of those eight either. So suddenly he's an eight plus target guy more often than not and he's not getting fewer than six ever. So you get this stretch where he's an immediate target earner even from the early part of the year, but especially late, you get the efficiency 10.4 yards per target. So it was the regular season number. Then he adds the huge playoff game because he had the long TD. So it's the yards per target, including the playoffs have to be half yard higher probably. Do you mention the yards per hour on 2.38 and the regular season? But because he kind of came on later, he only ran 482 routes, which was both a positive because as you talked about his per out profile in college was very good. But the big knock was he never really ran huge routes. He got banged up a lot is, you know, can he hold up? This was sort of the same knock with Pukinakua. He comes in and he gets 482 routes in your one and say, okay, that's a good number. It also is the kind of number that if you want to invest in around two, you can tell yourself, this guy get there's room for him to run 100 more routes. Even if this is a run based team, because he's going to start from from week one as the clear number one in this past game that is basically designed for every other receiver on the field at least to be vertical and create room for Ladmakonky. I mean, it's basically designed around him as that number one. He's I think very integral to what they want to do in their passing game and the way that they've structured their roster. I think he's going to be really, really good. I think his target share could get really high off the play action game. The first read stuff should be there for him. He loves to run those, you know, deep over routes. And then the efficiency looked so good last year. I think it's going to fit with Herbert was there present from from the very beginning. I think his ceiling is higher than what it was in year one. Yeah, I don't have much to add there. I agree with Gretchen like I'm at cost hard to get him much earlier than cost in my opinion, just because the crop of players is so strong. But yeah, in basketball, certainly someone I want as part of my portfolio and in redraft fine if he falls to it's just it's hard for me to get overweight just because it's someone that I would rarely take a head of 80 p.m. the strength of the players in front of him right now. Let's look behind him. You've got Quentin Johnston who's had the awful rookie season, had a slight bounce back last year, but hard to know how much of that was kind of just out of necessity. Better coaching staff could QB play as opposed to him. You mentioned they bring him Mike Williams. They draft Trey Harris who is an older prospect, not an early breakout, but had just in kind of insane efficiency season last year. This is from JJ's late round prospect guy that I mentioned, but Harris's yards put out run right last year was even crazier. According to PFF, it was over five yards. Not only was that by far the best figure in this year's class, but it was the highest PFF is ever recorded from a power five wide out with 100 and more routes run that dates back to 2014. The previous step that he was mentioning was a pro-rated receiving yards per team path attempt of 3.86, which is a remarkable number, especially given the strength of opponent factoring in there, but only eight games, 60 catch, 1,030 yard season, you still kind of want to keep the total raw numbers in mind there that they weren't as impressive as the huge efficiency numbers. So he only ran 201 routes. He has a 5.12 yards per route. I talk about targets per route and how you get up to like 25 plus, that's good. He was at 37.8 percent, 12 ADOT, which is above average, vertical ADOT. And so his weighted targets per out number is over one. I've talked to the about that before. If you get to like 0.6, 0.7, those are really strong weighted targets per out. He was at 1.01, which is just targets per out, including an area of element. And then his yards per target is 13.6, which is, I mean, anything over 10 is really, really strong there. So you're talking about, that's how you get to a 5.12 yards per out because targets per out and yards per target, you know, pull into yards per out. But it's just, these numbers look wrong, right? They're insane. But the point I would say is the year prior 311 routes in 2023, he has a 3.17 yards per out run. And then from 2020, 21 and 22 is first three years. There's different routes numbers in here. But he was over 2.0 yards per out all those seasons as well. So one of the things about his five yards per out that people have said is it's a little bit gimmicky. He didn't run a ton of different routes. It's this stuff with the lane, Kiff and offense down there and Ole Miss. They're doing things a certain type of way. He's got Jackson Dart who's a great quarterback prospect and had really good accuracy numbers into the vertical route. And if you watch his tape, frankly, some of these concerns are immediately evident. You watch his big plays. It looks like he's just running like a deep, like in breaking route and there's just no one there for some reason and he's just wide open. So I do understand why there's some concern. But this guy's been really, really efficient every year. And so it's not just like, it's how much do you want to discount the five yards per out. Obviously, he's not going to turn in a five yards per out season at the NFL level. But the fact that he had the three yards per out the year prior, multiple earlier seasons at two yards per out or higher, different quarterbacks throughout some of that time, you're talking about a guy who looks like he can get open deep. He can catch balls that are thrown deep and he can catch and run. I mean, he's a fascinating prospect. Somebody that I'm definitely into a little bit. Yeah, it's definitely a fun best ball stack if you're investing in Herbert. And maybe you're worried about the volume upside for Harris in redraft situations, but you can really take advantage of the efficiency stuff in best ball. And that doesn't mean to discount him in redraft because sometimes these guys, if they are just end up being better than we think, you know, things can happen that we're, we don't want to have too narrow of view of exactly how things are going to play out. Right. I want to discount, quit Johnson either because he scored a bunch of touchdowns and I did give him a big TD rate. I cut his targets a little because PFF gave him the very lowest contested catch rate of 56 qualifying players. I think these new additions step on him. The fact that they went out to address vertical receiving weapons, including even just the Mike Williams ad, but he learned to learn about Smith as a like a seventh rounder. They took two rookies, not just Trey Harris. And then they've talked about it, the quotes from the organization, they've specifically acknowledged how their additions allow them to attack down field. It's weird that Quint Johnson for such a big body struggled with contested catches so much. Like that's the thing that he should be able to do very well. He had a massive 14 target 13 catch game in week 18. Interestingly, only two of those 13 catches were contested. Then he goes in the playoffs and next week he gets five targets has multiple drops on contested plays really struggled in their playoff loss. And I don't want to be completely out because he scored a lot of touchdowns last year, etc. But when they've talked about him, they're talking about how he took a step forward last year and he's taking another step forward this off season. And I guess I read that and I'm like that kind of also in place. He had a log, implies he had a long way to go when they took over last year. Yeah, I think I'm out on QJ and redraft. I'm just not sure I see the ceiling with the talent he's displayed in what you mentioned. In basketball now, you get a guy like him that's like probably going to still play like the second or third most well receiver routes on the team. And he goes very cheap. If you're investing in the charge was off and so I still think he's fine. There's not like an egregious misprice and I just like that's where his value is is the guy that's going to be out there on the team that could be good. Not that as a guy that I think the ceiling cases have just they don't exist anymore for Quentin Johnson. Let's go to the tight end position. This is a position where it's really hard to get the targets right and you can see in our projections are very different. We've got Dysly at 54 targets, Tyler Conchlet at 27. Dysly at 41, Tyler Conchlet at 60. We're both around 20 targets for the rookie Gadsden. Very tough to project. What we're leaning into a little bit here is just the targets per out run stuff for Dysly is really what's driving that for us. Last year he was out of 24% target per out run. Just didn't run a ton of routes. He was decently efficient 1.73 yards per out run. But you could see where it's the same story this year and he just gets out snapped a bunch by Conchlet which could result in sort of grudges projection. I'm a little surprised that collectively you've got as many targets as you do at the position. I think you're at 100 for those top two guys. We're more at 81. Yeah, I'm maybe coming in a little hot there. I guess it was the concern about the running back targets. I think we're addressing that a little because they were strong despite not having a great TD target. They were at 22.6% tight end target share in our team tied in season, only 15% running back target share. We've dropped them this season. I think down to 20% total is what we're projecting for the tight end position. I guess what I would say is if I'm hot at tight end, the running back is certainly more target set in projecting. It also makes me think that there's even more upside to LADS target number. I could have went higher on my targets for LADS when I was going through it and I'm 20 targets higher than you guys. As far as who's going to get the, or how to play the tight ends here, it's tough because I think Gadson's an interesting third piece as well and they've talked favorably about him. He's a receiver first. He was a receiver convert to tight end. They've talked about how he'll get better at blocking, but I think they'll have some specific plays sort of designed for him in the passing game or a few routes of game or as the season develops. He'll have some opportunities to make some plays. I do think you're talking about Conklin and Dysly. Dysly's target sprout run stuff, well taken the reason that I projected so much more for Conklin as they did sign him this off season after they had Dysly last year, gave him 2.8 million guaranteed. Not great, but he's Tyler Conklin. 72 targets last year, exactly 87, all three of the prior years. He's caught 50 plus balls, four straight years across dating back to Minnesota and across his three years with the Jets. Dysly last year caught, I believe exactly 50 or 51. It was his first 50 catch of his career. He's always missed a little time. I do think when he's healthy, he's a good play. You mentioned the per hour on stuff. His stuff in the past few years has been more routes based. He's run a lot of routes. It probably is that Dysly's the better talent at earning volume. The way that I play it or would play it is in managed. I'm just keeping an eye out for how the routes look early. If one of them misses some time, who can consolidate some routes or those kinds of things, I think it's a waiver, wire, play. I don't think they even know. You mentioned it's hard to tell how to split the targets. I don't think they even know how they're going to split the targets or the routes. I think this is a redundancy based. We're going to have competition and we also acknowledge there's a trition in football. We want to bring in multiple good football players and let them play out the season. We don't expect them to both be healthy all season. This conversation is for all the people out there who have drafted Justin Herbert and need to know who they're right. 18/3rd tight-end should be. That's the scope of this, the usefulness of this conversation. I don't think you have to force that stack. I've done Dysly so far. If I'm really good at tight-end but I still want a third, maybe take a shot on the rookie Gadsden but I think it's a little bit of an uphill climb in just in this situation to have two pretty legit bets in front of them and generally takes tight-ends a bit longer. Let's go to Las Vegas. We're at 63.1 plays per game. Gretchen is a bit lower at 61.2 where at 61% called pass rate, Gretchen at 59.5%. I know this is one that we talked about a lot, especially on the call pass rate side of things. Internally, feeling like we're a little bit high on pass rate but then just consistently looking at the division and the projected margin of defeat and just having a tough time getting them to a below average pass rate is where we're at there. We definitely fought the instincts to not match what you have there and not that we're that far off. I was doing the same thing. How low can they really be when they're going to be trailing a lot? I think there's a lot of people, not a lot of people, but I've heard some negative comments on Brock Bowers that because they're going to be run heavy, they have Pete Carroll, they have Ash and Gentie, there's not going to be enough targets. I think we'll talk about that. There's a little bit of regression due there because they threw a lot last year. I couldn't get that low with the pass rate and I'm like two full percent, you know, 1.6% lower than you guys. I think that's really interesting as far as what the pass volume will look like for the team. You guys are way higher on plays, two full plays. I guess that was also the thing for me where I'm like, they're not going to be very good. I saw some notes on Chip Kelly that he used less tempo. He said to kind of evolve as the NFL or I mean the sport of football has sort of evolved a little bit and you can't really play with tempo as much. He referenced that he did more huddling last year at Ohio State or somebody did somewhere when I was digging into this. But I'm assuming your guys as plays is pulling in that Kelly's typically always been pretty aggressive offensive coordinator. Yeah. So that's something we might look into in lower a little bit. We're basically getting them around league average kind of bouncing them out, not being very good, being a touch run heavy relative to GameScript and the Chip Kelly stuff. For Gina, I think he's a very capable pocket passer. I don't think there's a lot to add from him from fantasy perspective. I mean, he's fine as a QB3 in basketball. If you get him stacked up, otherwise I don't think there's a lot to add there. We're both kind of like a league average, if yards per attempt when you kind of adjust for the biases in our projection around 7.2, if you average our two projections in terms of your YPA for Gina. We'll go to Ashen Gentie and this is a tough one out of the gate. I think in previous years this wouldn't be tough. I keep referencing how stacked this like first round to me is and I really think it is first round in fantasy football, not this past NFL draft. fantasy, you've got with a monster workload, 290 carries, 58 targets. We've got it, 257 carries and 50 targets. Now some of the rush attempts to describe and see comes down to the play calling stuff previously mentioned in terms of half PPR points that puts you at 250 for Gentie. We're at 226. I think in a previous year like Gentie would be knocking on the door for like a top 5 to 8 pick. His ADP is starting to fall closer to the 1 to turn. I think he's fine there. I think he's very high floor. A lot of times people think of the rookies as like these high risk, high reward. These running backs that get the draft capital that Gentie got are very high floor. So the question comes down to what's the ceiling comparable, at least in my opinion, to the other players that you potentially draft around him. I was a little concerned about Gentie, like in my mental model before I did this projection. I figured you'd get a lot of work, but I don't necessarily think they're going to be very good and we talked about some of this stuff. Like they're not going to be able to necessarily run in some situations. I did the projection and I got a lot higher on him. I came back around and Tweet's rushing share even higher. I think it's the highest I've projected, at least to this point. Raheem Oster is their backup, basically. They brought him in. He's 33 years old and was bad last year. He's never healthy. They still have sincere McCormick. They have Zimir White. They have Dylan and Lauby. That's the rest of the running back room. If you're, I mean, I do think that stuff really matters. There's situations where I'm like, okay, the other guy's behind him, probably in Fringe a little. Let's talk about that with Maureen Hampton just a minute ago. Like Najaharis is a meaningful piece alongside of him, even though I really like Hampton's capital and profile and all that stuff. He does not have any concern about that. I don't think most dirt is a real threat to ever take a meaningful share. Basically, every carry that he gets, you're just hoping that he doesn't break. I mean, it's just not. And then look at the profile. Let's talk about the evasion rate stuff, the Miss Tackles Force stuff. If you get to point three Miss Tackles Force per touch in any year, that's really elite by PFF's numbers or that's really good. I'm always pumped when I see that. If you get a little bit above point three, that's awesome. Like Maureen Hampton's career high was point 295. Genties was over point four the last two years and his rookie year he was at point three, two, two. So I mean, just ridiculous. If you look at the yards after contact per attempt numbers, if you get over four yards after contact, that's really, really strong. And like Hampton did have two years doing that. Genties was over 4.5 in 2023. Then he went to 5.25 last year. That's just after contact. Yards after contact, 5.25 is like a good yards per carry range, right? But that's that's just how many yards he was getting after after first contact. He had almost like a yell you about opponents. Yeah, people will say that. But I mean, he had almost 2000 yards after contact in the season last year. That's just rushing yards after contact. 2000 rushing yards, period is ridiculous. Right? Like so that the profile is incredibly strong. Because receiving wasn't as great last year, but you go back to the 2023 season. And yeah, like a three plus yards per out run, you had a 500 receiving yard season. That seemed like last year because they ended up giving him 375 carries. They basically We're not going to throw to him when he's out in a route. We're not going to rely on that part of it. His targets per route were way down. They were even lower than his freshman year. They were less than half of his sophomore year into his junior year last year, which is really what drove his yards per out run, looking pretty poor last year. But again, he was rushing for 2,500 yards in that season. So we see this in college sometimes. That if we can just hand the ball to him and he's going to be amazing, we don't need to worry about throwing it to him. But that doesn't mean that he can't catch. And particularly the fact that he has that sophomore year, we had 500 plus receiving yards, I think, shows that he can catch. And he will be good in the passing game as well. He's just really, really good in space. He's going to make guys miss. Andy's going to be physical and break tackles and get yards after contact and all of those things. It's the best profile from these metrics since I've been looking at them. I mean, I haven't been looking at them for a ton of years. But it's such a good-- you can talk about the competition level, but I think these numbers are so astronomical that I feel really, really good that he's going to be incredibly good. The issue is just how much does the team hold them back? How high can you press his touchdown rate? Because as you mentioned, the look ahead lines and the win totals don't suggest a very good team. It's a tough division. And so that makes it a tough schedule, basically. I think there's a lot of games where they're not going to score a ton of points necessarily. It does help to have Gino, though, as you said. The other part of the projection that I got excited about Gention is their offensive lines not terrible for a team that you think of is not very good. And they also took two tackles at 98 and 99 overall in the draft back to back right inside the top 100. But they had some injuries last year, but they had some highly graded players by like PFF grades on the line. So I do think there's some potential for pretty good offensive line and going to a passing game with Gino Smith that this team is just better overall. And Gentie-- yeah, I mean, as you said, they're typically high floor players. They get this capital. I think he can be really, really good. Yeah, it's very challenging. And I know we have a decent size carry gap, but a lot of that's-- we're a little bit more conservative overall, because in terms of projected design carry share, we have Gentie with the highest in the entire NFL right out of the game. So I think we might up his target share a little bit. I still have a tough time getting him into the top 10. But now, like I said, he's starting to go at the one two turn a little bit more, which is obviously a very different price tag. I know when we first started our ranks, we were like, we're never going to get Gentie, where we have him ranked. And now he's starting to go-- he's dropped on both Draft Kings Best Ball and Underdog, the 11s. And I'm just so torn, because I could see the situation where we're looking back on this. We're like, oh, he should have been off the board after Bijon and Sequan. But at the same time-- It's time-- You know, at the first time, some really good profiles. So that's what we're up for. You should mirror Gibbs. You've got the second year receivers in Mollie neighbors with Brian Thomas. You've got Puka and Amman Rock. We're about as safe as you get. And that's where it's like-- and I don't want to come off of-- I think any of those guys can be guys that we look back on and go, how are they going that late? It's a lot of really good profiles this year that goes 14, 15, 17 players deep. And so that's tough. Yeah. And I know people-- they want the takes. But it's kind of like-- I mean, who do you like in that range? Like, feel free to use your own intuition, your own gut, because just a lot of really good profiles there. Behind him, I'm not really drafting anybody late. I guess it would be most-- if you had to pick someone late, are you taking anyone as a bench stash behind Gentile? I'm not. I thought Samir White was bad enough last year, and it's a new regime that I-- I didn't even project him. Basically, I felt like they needed to have a passing down back, because I had kind of like a Mirab duel or whatever. So I have Lauby making the team as the fourth back. And since Sierra McCormick-- we both have since Sierra McCormick as the third. So I guess I see it as most sort of McCormick as kind of the backups for the Russian work. And that they would want like a special team slash receiving back to round out that room. And so I had Lauby making-- I mean, my point is just-- I don't know that Samir White's really anything at this point. And so if it's not most sort, I guess it would be McCormick. But it's tough. It's probably just a Gen D, right? It's a lot of Gen D work. Yeah. Let's go to White Receiver, Jikoim Myers, the pretty clear number one target among the White receivers. We'll get to Bowers after the White receivers. We've got him at 104 targets. You're at 127. After that, we've got Jack Basha at 63. Trade Tucker at 48. Dante Thornton at 48. You're at 51 for Basha. 39 for Tucker. 39 for Thornton. So we've got a very similar split on these guys. You just have a touch more concentrated up top with Jikoim. And again, a lot of that just goes back to the systemic projection differences when we're outlining these things. Yeah. Basha never earned more than 21.5% targets per out in college. He did have a very good final season. High A dot, good yards per target in the final season, over 1,000 yards. But it was year five. He did have some injuries prior. He had a transfer away from LSU. I've seen people mention that in his freshman year, he led LSU in receptions on a team that had neighbors and a lot of those guys. That's technically true. But he averaged like 3.3 catches per game, ran the most routes. I believe it was K-Shem Boute at that time that was their best player who missed a bunch of time. And so they're number one for mostly a missed time. And then neighbors and Brian Thomas were also true freshmen. It just seemed like they had a role for Basha that wasn't there for the other guys as true freshmen. The point is, I've seen that note, and it's kind of one of those misleading things. It's like, yeah, it's technically true. But also three receptions per game is not. And then he also wasn't tops in yards. It was just tops in receptions. And so it's just very specific point that he-- and his yards per route and his receptions per route and those things weren't even as high as neighbors and Thomas didn't get to run as many routes. So that whole thing was there. It was the last year of Ed Orgeron. The next year, Brian Kelly comes in. And they immediately basically didn't have a role for Basha. And he transfers away the year after that. And so he got deprioritized immediately the next year, as arguably the coaching got better. He ends up at TCU and has a good final season. But that lack of production until your fifth year is a concern for me. And he's the one that got the draft capital in the second round. They also get Dante Thornton. They also get Tommy Milott. So take three rookie receivers. None of these guys had production track records. Milott was a quarterback at Montana State. Doesn't even really have wide receiver stats. And so you're looking at-- this is-- some teams have different philosophies. They're addressing archetype and athletic stuff with their picks, I think, and they're looking for certain skill sets. I tend to lean more on the-- can you use whatever skills you have to actually produce at the college level? I want to see that. And that tends to be pretty strong. And it's predictiveness going forward. And so I don't see this as a very strong secondary receiving room, which gets back to Jacoby Myers. He had a 21.6% target's per out in line with his career numbers, 1.76 yards per out run. Good, not great. Very good complimentary piece. I think he's fine. He's probably not a massive ceiling. I do think he's clearly better than what they'll get out of the rookies for the reasons I just described. I'll note that Trey Tucker last year. They had a lot of routes last year. Trey Tucker led the team with 640. It was fifth most in the NFL. So that's likely to go down on the team level. That's going to affect Bauer's as well as we talk about him. Tucker probably losing some of those routes to these young guys as well. He's not really a meaningful player. He's more just that vertical guy that runs off safety is a lot and opens up the underneath stuff. But yeah, that's just a team trend. Yeah. And on the Myers, no, we're ahead of ADP on him. I think the market is correct relatively speaking in terms of Myers not having as high of a ceiling as maybe some other players. But even in a weekly ceiling, once you start getting the ability to earn double digit targets, even if you're not this huge efficiency guy, like you have a ceiling. And he had six games, six games last year, where he earned 10 plus targets. There's not a lot of watermelons. Watermelons, graves. Watermelons. Watermelons. Watermelons. Watermelons. So I just-- I wouldn't overplay the lack of a ceiling angle that I see the market do sometimes. Directionally, that's an accurate kind of valid criticism of Jacobi, but I think it can be overweighted at time. I like him a lot more in Bestball. He's a nice stable piece in a Bestball build. I guess, and managed. I want the guys that can just break out stars in really high ceiling when you have to pick who you're putting your line up. But he's not out of the managed equation either. And we are a little high on pass rate. But given that, we do have Thornton and Bash's, like some of the more nicely priced rookies available, especially late in the draft. Sometimes the rookies will really get thrown up there. You can get Thornton very late right now and uncertain room behind Jacobi Myers. I like that note, because there's routes available. I could be wrong on all the things that I just-- said and somebody's gonna run their outs. There's not like there's a deep receiver room here. Yeah and another I think it's a little more best baller where you're not necessarily you know playing for the big breakout and the rock consolidation as it is this guy's out there and he's gonna have some spike weeks. Brock Bowers the big target though you've got him at 143 targets what 135 targets in terms of tight and premium points just because we like to shot out big numbers. Gratges at 314 fantasy points we're at 286. I'm not even running that much hotter than you guys. I do know you know I think people if you're listening or thinking like these are the guys that love Kyle pits after a good rookie year want to point out some like big differences pits obviously did get over that a thousand yards receiving number but he had kind of this very high yards per catch at 15.1 in terms of actual targets he had 68 catches on 110 targets. Brock Bowers last year 112 catches on 153 targets just some nutty volume no reason for that to go away and way better love Bowers and the cost on him is really dropped. We thought early in the off season in the underdog market was maybe overplaying the elite tight end angle and the need to get one and he was too rich at the very beginning of that second round. He's fallen now to the 19.2 which is back half of the second round so we're actually had a 80p now without changing anything on Bowers's inputs on underdog. We were always meaningful you had on the full PPR and tight and premium sites because that's where that volume gap really separates him you know from his his peers at the tight end position. Half PPR you know you get an 8 for 100 outing someone who goes 3.30 and 1 kind of competes with you. When you start getting into if you're playing a draft Kings with 100 yard bonus full PPR you're playing an FFPC 1 and a half points per catch. The 8 you know for 100 that volume really just starts to matter a lot more on a weekly basis. Also just the FFPC know in general our ranks consistently over the years have sort of seen the elite tight ends on FFPC specifically be a little bit undervalued and then that second tier of tight ends you know start to get pushed up when the the tight end premium scoring ends up not mattering as much because the volume's not there for those guys like it is for the very top guys so we've got Bowers actually too overall in our FFPC rankings I don't know if I you know have it in me to pull the trigger there but I really don't think it's is off the table. Well to me he's a year to break out receiver I don't I think the way to contextualize him is not as the top tight end but rather in terms of Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas and the other year two guys and then go back to oh but I can fill my tight end spot with him because you mentioned like the Kyle pits comparisons I want to go back to the prospect profile with Bowers because pits was a three-year early to clear out a really great third year especially per game because he missed some time in that year there aren't huge like tight end production numbers typically at the college level but when you get the one really good season like that that was really exciting and he's an early declare and he gets draft capital and all that I'm going to talk about Bowers having some rushing production Tyler Warren had some rushing production that was really exciting and so people might point to that hey this is a guy who has really good ball and hand skills warned and doing anything for four years and then as a fifth-year player had a hunter catch season and the rushing production in his fifth year and is an incredible year 1400 yards last year but this is a fifth-year guy Sam Laporta is another name that I would see compared to this probably because he had a great freshman year or rookie year in at the NFL level and then he has a sophomore slump last year and I could see that being a concern for Bowers he had a really strong profile but nothing like Bowers who comes in as a freshman at Georgia and leads a national championship team with 800 receiving yards more than doubles Lad Maconkey ad and I Mitchell Germaine Burton multiple NFL players has 13 touchdowns that year it's 59 receiving yards per game he goes up to 63 receiving yards per game the next year on another national championship winning team and then goes to 71 yards per game the next year he only plays 10 games that final season but it continues to get better and better across his college production has over two or just under 200 rushing yards on 19 carries five rushing TVs over 10 yards per carry on just like a minor addition to his profile that's why in part why I think the touchdowns last year which were a big part of his concern that were low is not going to be predicted by his future this guy scored 26 touchdowns receiving and five more rushing in college clearly good with the ball in his hands you get him a good quarterback in Geno Smith and we talked about Jacobi Myers being a good complimentary receiver that's going to command a little attention I think Bowers touchdowns are going to spike this year immediately and then be high the rest of his career because that's like the player that he is he when I talk about him in the context of neighbors and Thomas he shouldn't be evaluated I don't think against pits or LaPorta or other tight ends because he's not that he's so much more dynamic he was so much more clearly elite at the college level for such a good like the best college team with great NFL talent around him and he was better than all those guys he's the three year early declared completely dominant all three years type of profile that you want to see and then we saw it in your one you just you just talked about all the stuff that he did last year and you know over two yards per out run and you know as a low a dot but he gets a massive number of targets the one concern is the routes or just a minor con contextual note he let all tight ends with 592 routes last year that's 56 more than all other tight ends not named Kelsey who was second and somewhat closer to Bowers but he was about 10 percent higher than than third place in in tight end routes I do think that's gonna come down even though he's gonna run routes on because the team drop backs are gonna come down like he's gonna run routes on on all the dropbacks but the team dropbacks I think is gonna fall enough to bring that number down a little bit which can hurt overall volume a little bit but I do think there's room in year two because like other good your two receivers might loosen routes to I mean I think there's room in your two for his skills to increase and I think that's what's being missed a little bit we talk about year two breakouts guys coming off great rookie years I think people think what Brock Bowers did is a rookie is like somehow the ceiling or they talk about it like that and there's room for him there's room for Brock Bowers right now without hyperbole to go on and be the greatest high end of all time like that's what his profile looks like he's probably on like a Hall of Fame trajectory already like it's just it's bizarre to say but you you do you don't want to understate the possibility that he can get better what he did is a rookie after a three year early to Claire as a young rookie is just positive for what he can become in the future how many more touchdowns he could potentially score this could be the reincarnation of Rob Gronkowski etc like he's very exciting in a Gronkowski himself called him better than him before last season and then he went on and had that tight end one overall season so I mean I just I want to caution the Bowers skeptics that he doesn't have to regress like Sam Laporte did after his rookie year the fact that he has a tight end next to his name is not a major concern there's a lack of competition in this passing game he gets a quarterback upgrade the running game is gonna command some attention from defense is Ash and Gentie is another really meaningful piece the teams are gonna have to game plan for Bowers could have an explosive second season I mean it could it could just get better all right there you have it make sure you check all Ben's work out over at BenGrads.substac.com and make sure you check out Establish Run appreciate everybody for tuning in three more episodes for us to go in the offseason projection special you