ETE Projections Special Part 4: NFC East with Ben Gretch

[Music] Welcome to Establish the Edge. I'm your host Mike Bione. Here with Ben Grutch for part four of our off-season projection special, you can look at all of Ben's work at Ben Grutch. This episode is going to be on the NFC East projections, but before we dive into that, we do want to go over the John Smith trade since we just recorded the AFC podcast. At the end of last week, I sort of didn't think the John who traded was going to happen. And of course over the weekend, we jinxed it and it did happen. So we were already pretty excited about Miami. I think I sent you a note that I was in some ways annoyed that this might get people more onto Miami. And you had told me as we're talking for the podcast that you're pretty into Miami as one of the more important offices and fantasy now to target. Yeah, when we were talking, I mean, it was really exciting to hear how into Achan you were independent of my own research where I was really into him on that pod. And at the end of the show, we were talking about who would be like the thumbnail for the show. And we were like, oh, we're really both into Achan. That would be the thumbnail for that episode for the AFC East. A big part, one of the notes I had on him was I didn't think that his receiving stuff would necessarily be transferable to other running backs if he got hurt. And I actually thought that John knew was had this weird contingent value behind Achan because of the way they use the quick hit game. And so I think that part of their offense, people have talked a lot about it as gimmicky and that it's, you know, it was because their offensive line was bad and all that stuff. I think it's also because they don't want to get hurt and they can't use him in the run game at all with the concussions, particularly his scramble rate was a career low, his design run rate was a career low. He's the biggest non threat for rushing TDs at the quarterback position in the entire league. They will not do the touch push. They will not put him in in jeopardy. And that's why they did those quick hit passes to get the ball on the edge because you have to do different things to confuse defenses. And particularly when you get into the green zone inside the tent and the field gets shrunk and you don't have a deep, you know, a way to stress defenses vertically as an offense, you got to stress them horizontally. The mobile teams can use the threat of the quarterback like pulling them all on a read option around the edge to open up running lanes inside. The offense can't do that. So they use the quick hit passing passing game on the edge to help their inside run game as well. It's a threatens defense is pre snap horizontally, which is really important in the red zone, which is why when I went back to my projection, Leoni, the biggest thing that I had to replace other than the 17% target share and Miami had basically no tight end targets the two years prior 9.2% in 2023 and then went up to 25% last year. 12% in 2022. So first of all right now they haven't, you know, they may acquire another tight end, but they haven't and it looks like the tight end position is going to be back to where it was in 22 in 2023, which is sort of an afterthoughtness offense. But in addition to the 17% target share that I had to replace the biggest thing was what are the touchdowns go because Johnny had like a 7% receiving TD rate a lot of it was that quick passing game in the red zone. And that stuff developed over time for him throughout the season we talked about is splits and I think that's why people think all his production was just because the offense wasn't working, but H&N was getting that volume early yet seven catches week one. He had seven catches week two. That's a game to a left with the concussion and then he didn't have a lot of receiving when two was out. We talked about those big splits. We talked about why that gave a chance a really high receiving ceiling and went back to this and I was like you take Johnny out and I just think it has to be more quick game stuff to H&N. I mean, I think if any receiver running back catchers 100 balls this year, I would clearly bet on H&N, but the other part of it is because the touchdowns consolidate and the whole offense consolidates. But because the touchdowns consolidate and because they use that quick passing game in the red zone, H&N's the other guy who had like a 7% receiving TD rate both of his years of his career years so far. And I'm looking at like where do these past TVs go so that the team scores enough touchdowns they can't go to to a rushing. H&N's rushing TD rates have been really strong as well. If there's a running back in the league who scores 25 touchdowns this year, which is not something that happens a lot that's a that's a 20 year old number like that's what the Indian Tomahonson did in Sean Alexander did those guys scored 25 TDs. It doesn't happen as much anymore or at all anymore, but if there's a guy who could do that to meet still on H&N as well because of the way that this offense needs the TDs to go somewhere other than quarterback rushing. I bumped Tyree kills TDs I bumped waddles TDs even though I think he plays a different type of role the more vertical role in the offense. I bumped a lot of different guys TDs the name that I think is really interesting outside those main three is Malik Washington who in the final four game he had a quad injury missed weeks one and two came on slowly as rookie year. Final four games he had 20 targets caught 16 balls. He's actually the only wide receiver or tied end who had more than 20 targets all season. So this was still a concentrated passing game like it was in prior years it did incorporate H&N did incorporate John who but outside the two top receivers. The running back in the tight end Malik Washington had like 32 targets all season. He most had like 20 something 22 or something and no one else had more than 20 it still was hyper concentrated and that's why you heard the initial reactions that it's going to be hyper concentrated without John who it makes the projections really meaningful you mentioned it I told you. I'm like a several thousand words into writing an article this morning that'll go up at bangrash.subs.com that I want to tease but it's about why I think the dolphins are the most important offense for 2025 to get right because the ceiling here because of the way the touchdowns can can consolidate the volume can consolidate the ceiling here is so so clear. The H&N ceiling in particular I always talk about the high value touches receiving plus touchdown equity is running back ceiling this guy has the highest ceiling at both independently in my mind at the running back position he should be a top five pick he might be the one or one dude like it's it's crazy. Yeah I'm not quite as high an H&N but I do still we move up to our ranks is like early round two I'm pretty so long him at the one to turn like getting him in there it's tough because we talk about this being a back end of the first round that kind of extends to the middle of the second round there's a lot of really good names you're taking H&N you might not be taking Brian Thomas junior you know there's action jetty and awesome rookie running back. You know you've been got Derek Henry there and a half PPR least but I think I'm I'm making sure I get a chance that's probably going to be one of my bigger stances this year. And it's been saying you know maybe should be going top five if you take him at the end around one you're still going to have a very heavy overweight position on him. Other notes agree with that I'm like Washington I think he's really interesting and a drafts right now in basketball I think for stacking purposes Nick Westbrooky Kene is in there too. Malik Washington's the upside play but there's still more room for you know a Kene to be just a bit usable being on the field they did sign Darren Waller which is like a weird signing out of retirement had trouble getting through full seasons health wise when he did play he's 33 now. I kind of you that as a positive for all the positive things we're saying where it's like maybe it reduces the chances that they make a trade I've seen like mayor's name floated and whatnot and it just kind of indicates to me that tightens probably not going to be a huge priority so yeah and then that other notes. I'm sure no one under my radar they say Darren Waller out of retirement yeah it's an odd signing for sure he comes out of retirement goes to Miami then as far as the receivers because you hit on HN you know really well for Ty Riek when we recorded the podcast in the last week I mentioned the difficulty between like some of the vibes based stuff some the age stuff just some concerns there but then we knew the upside was really high. John getting traded doesn't alleviate those concerns but I was talking with Peter over said on his best ball breakfast it does shift the range of outcomes where the meeting outcomes now is much better the 80th percentile outcome now is much better just because this offense has to be concentrated even more so than it already was so I'm definitely you know back in on Ty Riek at his price I was already kind of getting there and I think he at the two three turn now is like. A risk worth taking I get the downside cases but risk worth taking yeah John who falls quite a bit for looking at this from the Pittsburgh angle it's just you know you're going to run first offense that kind of plays you're going to Arthur Smith rotates players a lot I do think John who in fire knew they're both going to play a lot. They are going to be the maybe the two in three targets on this team there might not be much there in terms of taking shots at wide receiver two and three but we have not gotten that division yet so we'll cover that one death yeah when we get to that division let's go in well let me throw a couple quick notes the Ty Riek thing I really agree with because they had a high he has a much stronger TV rate than waddle just kind of based on usage again he gets more that stuff near to the line of scrimmage which I think. Plays into why he gets the higher TV rate because of how they do things in the green zone and where they may throw the ball there. Waddle still has to kind of catch his TVs down the field whereas Ty Riek can get some of his on sort of manufactured touches I a lot of people were really high on Waddle on this I do think Waddle's value moves up I get a lot more interested in him I do still think the question was. with him as a reliability one more. So then anything. And I don't necessarily think that he's he feels like the last guy to get more manufacturer touches, which is John's stuff was all over low eight out, which is H and Tyree gets some of that and then even like them like washing stuff. And then as far as the wall or the guy just got to say for the listeners that I was I here getting a haircut. It just happened like an hour ago. We would just the wall and trade like this morning. We were recording right after that happened. So that's a fun one. That's a fun little piece of news you just broke for me. And zooming out. If this is a top 10 offense. All these guys are performing their 80 piece and better. I mean, if this top 10 offense were two stays healthy. All these guys are performing really well. And if it's a top five offense, you could have multiple league winners in the same offense. So you just don't get these situations every year, which is why I think Ben and I are so into this between the concentration and some of the historically efficiency stuff with McDaniel. For sure. Let's jump over to the NFC East. We'll start with Philly defending Super Bowl champions. Gratges at 65.3 plays per game. We're at 64.1. Historically, they've run a ton of plays. We're regressing them a decent bet. I think our models have a little bit of a tough time with how large their run rate is and how many plays they run. They were just so dominant as a team. So you can handle that regression in some different ways. And we do have them a little run heavier still than Gratgette. A 52% called pass rate compared to Gratges 54% called pass rate. You're probably thinking those are some very low called pass rates. I'm looking at it up last year in terms of dropback rate. It was 48.7% for Philadelphia. So there's just some natural game script stuff that we're assuming pulls back that leads to more pass attempts. But it is a team that projects to once again be one of the best in the NFL. Yeah, they were turned for their own line starters and then also added key depth in free agency and through the draft they are not at all getting complacent about their line. They're going to make sure they still have an elite unit there. The play volume has been high for years as you're talking about. It really is just a question of how low you want to go like I wrote the pass rate could get very low. But I baked in some general regression went with a four year average. There could be some injuries related stuff that could be them just sort of. I think last year first year with Barkley, they're really pushing how far they can go toward the run a little bit. He winds up because they play 20 games. They go to the Super Bowl. He winds up with like 480 touches. We're going to talk about this. That's a really tricky thing for me with sake one. I guess I think that going into this year, they're still going to obviously make sake one the focal point of their offense. But it's a totally different vibe where last year it was proving the thesis of sake one behind this Eagles line is great. They've already proven that. And now it's, you know, how many touches do we really want sake one to have to take when he had 480 touches last year? And we're thinking about repeating. We're thinking about January and those things. So do we intentionally try to lean a little bit more into the past one weekend? We still have great past catchers and all those things. So it really is just a question of how far down you want to go on the called past rate. This is the lowest call pass rate I've had so far. And it's still 2% higher than yours. So I mean, but it makes sense. Your guys' number makes sense a lot as well. It's the from a range of outcomes perspective. It's going to be tough to get to a lower call pass rate than we saw last year though. There's probably more room for it to be much higher than last year, you know, than it is to be lower. And Gretchen's kind of capturing maybe more of that range of outcomes and we're a little bit closer to the median outcome there in terms of that. Even though we're doing mean projections is kind of more reflective of the median in this case. That goes to Hertz who I've struggled with. You've got them at 393 fantasy points per game. We're at 346. You're slightly higher on efficiency, which is generally the case. You're just under 25 touchdown passes. We're just under 23 touchdown passes. In terms of yardage, again, you've got more plays and a higher pass rate with a little bit higher YPA who creates a bigger gap. 4100 yards for you, 3600 for us. We're both in the 600s on the ground with double digit touchdowns. He's done that year in and year out. Passing last year, you know, took a step back obviously on only 15 games for him, but didn't exceed 3000 yards passing. Has not exceeded 23 touchdown passes in his career. So I go back and forth. There's a lot with Hertz's profile that screams like just insane upside. If they do get caught in a season where they need to be more aggressive throwing the ball. The defense regresses takes a step back. So you see some people taking that angle arguing for him to be arguing him as a great value right now with him going behind Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, very clearly and even behind Jaden Daniels, and closer to Joe Burrow. Our projection still kind of spit out as him being valued just kind of like fine where he is maybe even slightly overvalued, which was interesting to me because historically we've run pretty, pretty on hurts. I finished my projection 5 TDs higher than where I needed to be. And for most of the teams with the really high expected TD rates, I come in a little light because I'm sort of probably being anchored too much to like the mean TD rates as I start to plug them in for different positions. And then you're like, oh, I'm closer to the mean, but I need to I need to push some of these touchdown rates a little higher and stuff. I just had that with Washington's for example, they project for a lot of scoring, but I had a lot of their guys probably too low in my first pass. And then you go and you look at the team number and you're okay, I'm a little below. And I have to actually push these. This is a good offense. The reason I came in so high with the Eagles is part of gets to part of the hurts passing upside, which is all three of his past main pass catchers, very concentrated passing game here as well are elite efficiency players. And AJ Brown's coming off a career high 2.99 yards per out run. It now can extend his streak to six straight seasons over 2.5 to starters career. I might say guys go over two yards per out run over multiple years. That's great. He's been over 2.5 every year of his career. This guy's a superstar. He's one of the very best wide receivers in the NFL. Like one of the three very best. He just doesn't run enough routes to like get that sort of fantasy value, but he is an elite elite player. Devonta Smith also had a career high yards per out run 2.1. One is first season over two. That gap does explain why AJ Brown still the clear number one, but Devonta Smith has also very, very good. Dallas got it. Had a second best yards per out run season continues to be very good per out has missed multiple games basically every year of his career. He played 10 last year. Devonta played 13. AJ Brown played 13. All of those guys are very, very good. They all missed four plus games. If they're all efficient, excuse me, all healthy with that type of a not even necessarily that type of efficiency, but a certain type of efficiency that's similar to that. All of a sudden hurts clearly has career high passing upside. And I don't think it's a surprise that they all had close to the best per out numbers of their career, not just because their sample was a little bit smaller, but because of the sake one impact, right? It goes both ways. I think what they're able to do in the passing game opened up the run, but what were they are doing running clearly opened up? You had to bring guys down on the box. And so it clearly opened up some of the passing down the field and it created some big plays and they use the passing game situationally. And that's going to improve efficiency. Maybe if the pass rates higher, the efficiency won't stick. I don't have the efficiency anywhere near this stuff, by the way. It's got to come down some. You regress it some, but it is tricky to project the hurts passing upside. I do think his three weapons should be healthier in the aggregate. And that's I think a pretty big thing. And I think throwing to them last year, all of them having these really high yards per out run seasons, throwing to them, he was pacing for what would have been a career high passing season. And this was the best version of the offense in the Jalen Hurts career. And so I think going into next year, the potential for a few more dropbacks and what the balance of having such a dynamic running game creates in terms of the favorable passing situations that it gives you. I do think Jalen Hurts is a pretty interesting QB4 in drafts. I think it's a little bizarre that he goes like solidly behind those other three. And I've heard him kind of talked about as if he's not a part of that on some side, depending on what site you're on and those things. But I think he's clearly a part of that. The rush TD rate for him, obviously been observed for three straight years. Very difficult to project. I'm coming a little higher than you. Part of that is fairly tight for the second most rush TVs in the NFL with 29 last year. Four teams were in single digits. So you're like, OK, 29 is really high. But I don't know how you regress. I'm not projecting much regression. I have them at 26.5. The previous three years, they had 22, 32, 25. So the last four years, they've been between 22 and 32 rushing TDs every season. Big part of this is the Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns. I'm projecting my 26.5. I mean, it's a higher rushing TD projection than most other teams because there's more years of consistent data. And so maybe my projection is closer to a ceiling than it would be at other teams where I'd feel more comfortable regressing it. It's just sort of like a little math point, I guess, about how this comes out for me. But I feel very confident this team's going to score a lot of touchdowns. They're going to score a lot of touchdowns on the ground. That gets to your point about the Hurts passing TD stuff. But then it's also question of like how, they're gonna score a lot of touchdowns too, you know, just overall. So it's a fascinating one to try to dial in. It is. And we're a little bit different. You have Hertz in with those top three quarterbacks. We definitely do have a material below. And like I said, historically, even a bit more prohertz and it's tough to decipher. If you look at Hertz's 2022 season, you know, that's what you're looking for for upside if you include them in that top four. And it was close to 250 yards passing per game. Russian, I don't think we're gonna see him rush as much as he did that year. He had seven 60 yards and 15 games. He's pretty solidly over 600, but I don't know if we're gonna get quite that per game pace. Again, I think part of it is just we just have the team so good that we're not giving out our probability to that really perfect scenario playing out where he's very efficient. Passing the ball, what they also need to pass the ball. The volume. That's a good point. I think my projections a lot closer. I was kind of talking through this a lot closer to his ceiling outcome then where Allen can get to where Daniels can get to where Lamar can get to his yardage probably doesn't have to push up. Like even if you agree with me that if yards can bump up, it's what I'm projecting is probably close to like a 75th percentile outcome for his yardage outcomes. And to your point, his rushing yardage is not on the level of the other elite rushing quarterbacks, particularly Lamar and Daniels. A lot of his rushing is the QB sneaks. It's plays that are not. He's a good scrambler too, but he doesn't scrambler as much as Lamar or Daniels. And so as yards per carry comes in meaningfully lower than those other elite rushing players. And then you're also talking about how the passing yardage probably not as high. So on both sides, his fantasy profile gets hit a little bit by not having quite as much yardage. Which gets to. They're going to be leading in the second half and they're going to run the ball. Even if it's will shiply taking over some of those carries from from say one. And as you know as strong as the touching touchdown upside is based on the efficiency, you know Lamar through 41 touchdowns last year. Allen's typically around 30 touchdowns has gotten into the high 30s multiple times. And they're both giving you the ground component that hurts his giving you plus that just little extra juice in the passing game. So I do think there's more of a distinct tier. I kind of on feel like the upside angle that you're taking, but I know just based off our projections and the ranks, we don't have him as like this like, oh, don't draft y'all shall. Because you can draft you and hurts later type of value, which I definitely understand the case for that. But right now we don't really have them. Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily. I wouldn't necessarily say that I'm playing it that way either, but I do think he's an interesting thing. And interesting, if you get to that point and you want to consider an elite QB, I don't know why I think people, I've heard people be like, well, I missed on the elite QBs. I'm going to pass now when hurts is the only one left. And I'm like, no, you can still take hurts. Yeah, I would agree with that. I guess it's mostly ends up being a neutral position for me, which I know is boring, but it's fun to talk through like kind of how you get to get either side of that argument. And really just sort of where it lands for me too, even though I come in optimistic, more optimistic on the projection. Yeah, it comes down a lot to like the odds that he can, I think we both agree that the, there's a season where he is QB one overall and basically puts up the 25 points per game that he did in 2022, which is what are the odds of that happening? Right. And then if it's not worth it, if it's not that the other part of the profile that's appealing is that it's high floor, like I it's very high floor really strong that he's going to give you a weekly advantage in your 12 team leagues. I don't feel strongly that he's going to help teams win the massive best ball tournaments, you know what I mean? Because there's going to be quarterbacks from the late rounds that can score as much as him that hit. We don't know who those are necessarily. And some other elite QB may have a much higher ceiling season. And so he might not actually look like the best QB pick, but it's also a very safe high floor pick for like a 12 team league. We only have to beat a lot of other teams. In a redraft setting, you were getting, I was talking to JG Zacharyson about this the other day too. And he was hitting on like some positions have more predictability than others. And with these hybrid, you know, quarterbacks that are providing fantasy value in multiple ways on very good teams, there's some of the most predictable assets in all of fantasy. Like we can argue odds depending on the upside. But and from a he's going to be, you know, a top six quarterback. It would be pretty weird if he wasn't a top six quarterback in play the whole season. Let's go to say quan. We went through B. John Robinson versus say quan a little bit on the NFC South podcast. We have some like absurd projections for say quan. I don't think we've projected someone for this many yards since we've been doing this. But we're at 287 carries for about just over 1400 yards rushing. You're at 303 carries for 1500 yards rushing. We're both in double digits as far as rushing touchdowns. We're very similar on receptions, which is about 35. And that's the number that's, you know, mediocre for someone who will be the top overall pick in lots of local redraft leagues in basketball leagues. He started to slip a little bit as people have pushed Jefferson ahead of him. And we are seeing on some sites some flippinine of say quan and B. John, which is surprised me not that I think it's wrong. I'm just kind of surprised the market has gotten there. I sort of suspect the little bit of say quan fatigue and come August. We see say quan back up there. But yeah, it's a generational prospect in probably the best situation possible. You mentioned the offense working both ways. You've got Devante Smith and AJ Brown on the outside. You can't just stack the box again, say quan. You're playing with leads quite frequently because your defense is so good. You've got a Russian quarterback, which we know helps the efficiency of a Russian running back. So every single contextual factor except for the past catching is really helpful for a back who's already elite from a talent perspective. So I think you can take him anywhere in the top five. I wouldn't really argue. I think there's a tier of probably four guys I would consider between Jefferson, Chase, say quan and B. John. Yeah, and late in the season, I was writing almost more for myself than than anyone else. Why I really like sick ones profile. How good that I. There was a game late in the year where he didn't break a long TD run. He didn't really catch any passes and he still had like 12 PPR points because of the way he was able to accumulate like 10 yard runs. The yards before contact stuff is so good in this offense behind this line. He's so good at the second level yards after contact, et cetera, that even when, you know, I think people that are fading him want to regress the long TDs, but even in a game where he didn't have the long TDs, he had a high floor that I would describe. Like I was at the high value touch stuff. The guys that give you some receiving floor and that kind of stuff to me. A big way to think of high value touch type running backs is that they tend to have a higher floor. The issue with sake one for me as the projections came out last year was he didn't catch enough passes with hurts and we still don't have him with a huge receiving role you and I both. But the way that he runs the way this offense works, how good their own line is, he's what I would call a trap back in the terms of that stands for trivial rush attempt percentage. It means that you're not getting as much receiving work and he's got that kind of profile where the percentage of his touches are just not in the passing game, which is better for fantasy. And yet because his efficiency can be so strong, it still provides a floor that most players with that type of profile, at least trap backs, quote unquote, this classification that I've developed don't typically have. It's a different scoring range than a trap back like that should have because of how efficient he can be even without the long runs. Now I wrote about all that at the end of the regular season and I was like, this is unique in this is fantastic and it's something that I really want to be on our next year. That was before he had a four game postseason run where he had 104 more touches over four games in the postseason. And he finished the regular season with 378 touches, which was the most in the NFL. He also was the player with the most postseason touches. It comes to a total of 482 touches. You know, we used to talk way back 20 years ago in the curse of 370 if you have 370 rush attempts that players tend to have a hard time the next year. I do think the sport sign stuff is way better and all of that. And I don't immediately want to fade him just because he had a lot of touches last year. I do think it's tricky. We just saw, and I use the comparison in the NBA, but we saw Jason Tatum and Tyree's Halbert and have unfortunate Achilles injuries in the playoffs in the NBA. I don't know what time about, again, sports science or even basketball, but just the long seasons that those guys play, the, you know, Tatum had a postseason run the year prior all the way to the play, all the way to the finals. Halbert and Halbert had a long postseason in the year final. You get a shorter off season and then you play another long season. That stuff worries me. It worries me at the running back position. Say Kwan didn't take a lot of huge hits because he was running away from everybody all the time, but you go 480 touches through February. And now you have to be ready in September to play again and to match these projections that we have. And it does concern me enough that I'm a little bit worried. The only other thing on the projection profile I want to talk about is a lot of talk about how it was off and tackle the one which he was. And the long TD runs were probably the rate of long touchdowns, probably a little unsustainable offsets it. He's still had an elite 4.1%. and TD rate. I don't see why his TD rate has to go up. You have to account for the long touchdowns, probably coming down a little because he was just doing it at such a ridiculous rate last year. Yeah. And like I said, I just really want to argue with any kind of ranking of that top four. I probably have Chase as the one. But then when you get into like Jefferson, Bejon and Sequon, it's just tough to argue. In half PPR, I'd probably, it was just a cop out, but side with Sequon and full PPR side with Bejon. Just use that as my tiebreaker. I know if you're just drafting like one or two leagues, it's tougher to do that. And you just want to draft a guy you're more confident in. I wish I could give you a super confident answer between those three, but I just, I don't have one. Behind Sequon though, I do think Will Shipley is pretty interesting. I'm curious your take here has been someone I've been drafting in rooms where I just want like the upside of like if Sequon gets hurt, you know, they don't have Kenneth Gainwell there anymore. So I'm assuming Shipley's going to already play more than he did last year, we barely played last year, mostly just garbage time stuff. But if he gets some of that two minute drill stuff, no huddle stuff, plus the garbage time stuff, there could be some usable weeks there in Best Ball, certainly nothing that you're starting and redraft. But then if Sequon gets hurt, I think this offense would look different. And like think of the hurts thing, I like if Sequon gets hurt, like that's where you see like for crazy hurt season. Really, even though the efficiency of the offense would struggle, there just be hurts would become like Allen and Lamar in terms of like the offense is running through him as opposed to now. He's kind of just a piece of it. That was a tangent all to say. I do like Shipley, I curious your thoughts on what the backfield would look like if Sequon were to get injured. I really like Shipley, really like the profile, good receiver. It all through college that doesn't play up in the Eagles offense as much, which has made it tougher, but good athletic profile, good production profile. AJ Dylan's the other competition here. He only got 167,000 guaranteed. He looked a lot worse in 2023. The last we saw him, he missed all of 2024. There's a bigger back that look like he lacked some explosiveness in 2023. And now he's quite a bit older. I just think the idea of AJ Dylan right now is probably more than what the player actually is. They added a kick returner, Avery Williams from Atlanta, who's another listed as a running back. They gave him 400,000 guaranteed to put into context the 167,000 they gave AJ Dylan. Avery Williams is going to be on the team. Shipley is going to be on the team. I'm very confident. Sequon Barkley, Dylan may not. He may not make the, it wouldn't be that big of a surprise at that number. And if he doesn't make the team, I think Shipley hasn't even cleared lock on the RB2, is basically the point. He's going to very clearly step into the Kenneth Gainwell work. Probably behind Barkley, some potential that because Barkley had so many touches, because the Eagles are a smart and analytics have the organization that they will limit Barkley in games that they're leading. It would be sort of my expectation. And that you get some games from Shipley. We're in the second half. He gets like 15 touches of a game like a game that they're controlling. He starts to get a lot of late rushes and maybe get to use some usable weeks. So there may actually be weirdly some standalone value here, not really playable in managed leagues, but in Bestball as well as the contingent upside. I like the play. I like the play. We're on the same page there. Let's go to receiver AJ Brown, long time favorite of Gretchen here. Devon Desmit, the clear top two targets. We've got 120 targets for AJ Brown, Gretchen's at 130, putting him at 1,250 yards. We're just over 1,100 Devon Desmit at a 111 targets for just over 1,000 yards receiving for Gretchen. We're at 102 targets and just under 900 yards receiving about six touchdowns for Smith, closer to 7.5 for AJ Brown. I know for us we're a slightly above market on AJ Brown. If you're just comparing to ADP, slightly below on Devon Desmit. I typically do really like these guys like Devon Desmit, though, where you know, I think the offense is good enough and he's good enough that he's going to be fine, kind of no matter how the season plays out, but there's some angles with injuries to say, Juan, kind of transforming how the offense operates or an injury to AJ Brown, just demanding more target share for Smith where he's got a nice ceiling case. So yeah, I do like that. With Brown, Gretchen, again, it comes back to this really deep kind of first 20 picks or so in the draft. And you're talking a range of like HN, you know, Gen T, Derek Henry, Brock Bowers, Lab Mcconkey, Drake London. We have him 18th right now on draft Kings, Best Bow Rankings, for example. His ADP is 19.1. Yeah, there's a lot of profiles in that range that I think have a really extreme upside. Just talk through it with HN. Brown is a lot like what we just got to with Hertz where it's a high floor play. If you're really confident in the skill level, I think he's going to be very efficient on the volume he does get, but it's probably not the same ceiling does make it a little bit trickier. This I think this passing game is fairly easy to project from the perspective that even though those guys all missed a lot of time as I talked through, the Ancillary guys didn't really step up at all. Jahan Dotson finished with an 8% targets per route on over 400 routes. You get down in the single digits targets per out. That's really bad, but he ran a ton of routes. Grant Calcuttairas, their blocking tight end that played a little bit more when Gauter was out, but still only had a 10% target per out for the year. I mean, Gauter was at 23% when he was on the field. Calcuttair ran more routes for the course of the season, but he's getting targeted less than half. When Gauter's out, the ball goes Ajay Brown and Devonta Smith. When Ajay Brown's out, the ball goes to Devonta Smith and Dallas Gauter. When Devonta Smith's out, it goes to Ajay Brown and Dallas Gauter. Johnny Wilson was their other young guy who ran over 100 routes. He got 156. 10% targets per out. There's no other receiver or tight end in this offense that had a meaningful even per route rate of volume. All three of these dudes were up over 20%. They were all even on limited usage and even though they missed time. Some of that overlap at times. You're talking about the other guys just consolidating when their teammate is out. Again, high floor. I think all three of these guys are clearly the focal point of the passing game on what's obviously a run heavy offense. As you talk through with the Hertz projection, has some limitations to how much yards and past TDs and how much volume there can actually be on the passing side. I like all three of them. Gauter to me, I like what you're saying about Brown. I like the Devonta Smith discussion. Gauter to me is probably a little underpriced. He has not yet played a full season basically any year of his career. He misses multiple games every year, but especially in managed. When he's on the field, he's very startable tight end and you're getting him at like tight end, I don't know, 14 or something like that. It is. I mean, look lately, but it's pretty late. He's very startable from a per route and like volume perspective. And I think there's contingent upside for the reasons I just talked about either of the receivers miss this time. In your manage leagues, you know that that's a week I can plug Dallas, Gauter into my line. Right. Like that's very helpful. It's also potentially helpful and best ball. But I think from managed particularly, it's easy to know when to start him. He's either healthy or he's even more of an appealing start when one of the receivers is missing some time. Whereas, you know, if he's missing time, then you can replace that production with a different start at the 10 end position. So yeah. Gauter is our clear stance on the Eagles. You know, we're pretty neutral on a lot of the Eagles players can see the the upside base cases, but market seems to be buying them. Gauter to one, we're most ahead of 80 Pion. We've got him at 75 targets for about 637 yards. You're at 92 targets, 742 yards. Even with our more conservative approach on him, have him easily a value where he's going. And I think the markets maybe overly factoring in the injury stuff. And also he's just he's not a high TD rate player for a tight end. But he's scored literally three, three and two touchdowns the last three seasons. That just seems completely baked into his cost though, where any sort of, you know, weird variation in TD rate is going to provide a decent profit for you. For sure. Let's go to Dallas. Gretch has Dallas at 64.3 plays per game, where at 63.9, we're at a 62.2 percent pass, right? He's at 61.5 percent. So we're really close. In terms of actual attempts per game, gets us both right around 36 pass attempts and 26 Russia attempts per game for Dallas. So we're very close on both. I like DAK. I think already efficiency maybe is a little too conservative. We're at 7.1 yards per attempt. Gretcher is at 7.6. We both have him with a pretty high TD rate going 28 passing touchdowns. So I'm pretty into DAK though. We've talked a lot about the pocket quarterbacks. People kind of chasing what happened the year before. It's sort of going to be a theme throughout these episodes because you get a lot of guys like golf where people are chasing and then you get guys like DAK where I think people are off a little bit. But I just thought the pickins acquisition for them was like one of the most perfect fits to get them. They've had no wide receiver to threat the last few seasons. Now you get a pretty elite downfield guy with a high TD rate that doesn't need to get CD-LAM level target shares. You kind of keep feeding CD. I think there's a pretty big ceiling here for DAK. Obviously it's going to have to come through the air forehand. but yeah, I'm pretty excited to see what happens in Dallas. I mean, perfectly said with the pickins thing as far as I think about it. He said, "Lam, one of Lam's best qualities is he's incredibly efficient like after the catch and I always talk about this depth adjusted racer stat that I use for my efficiency and my projections. Relative to his A-dot, Lam's depth adjusted racer is always very, very good." He's like, "He's putting up better yards per target, YPTs than you would expect at his A-dot." Pickins is another player like that. Different profile as you talked about, but you get another efficient player like that. So, my passing numbers are fed in from how I project the receivers. You couldn't project any other player because of their own individual profiles like Jalen Tolbert and stuff for real efficiency. You get pickins in here and you're like, "Oh, I mean, he fits really well with Lam as you talked about." And now I'm projecting both these guys for real efficiency because they've been very efficient. They're good players. George Pickins is a good football player and then that feeds back into Dax. That's why my Yards per Tenth on Dax is a half-yard higher. And you talked through it that you thought maybe you guys are a little low on, you know, for those same reasons. One thing about Dax, Rush attempt per game, created a 1.6 last year, 3.1 was the previous low. That's a very low number. There's a small sample only in games, but he played at least 60% of snaps in every game. And every game. But that's still a pretty big drop off in terms of what is rushing profile looks like. That said, did have a rushing TD, has at least one rushing TD in every year. I think there's probably still, you know, rushing touchdown equity there. And then as you said, the past ceiling for him, I think is probably really high. They went into 2024 with seemingly obvious holes that running back in Yards, either 2. And then I think those holes proved to be like pretty limiting. Pretty clearly limiting. It's one of those things where it's like, you know, F round and find out. Like they, they found out we talked about this on the projection show last year where like it seemed like they needed somebody, anybody to earn targets alongside LAM. They had no one. But they still played really fast. They played a tempo a lot in recent years. They were the fastest pace in the league last year, fourth and play ball. They've been top eight for six straight years in play volume. Shotinheimer's been on staff. He's been talking a lot about one to be able to run the football this off season. I don't think they're running backs are particularly talented. I mean, they're going to probably play fast. He has talked about tempo too. They may be a little slower with Shotinheimer actually taking over just because it's hard to maintain that high of a tempo. And, you know, there's basically only room to come down from, you know, near top of the league. But I think they're going to be above average in place again as well. So you have a lot of things that that work back favorably. Let's go to the running back room, which is a bit of a mess. Completely new backfield. We've got Javante Williams here, the rookie, Jaden Blue, and also Miles Sanders as the other vet here. Right now, we've got Javante as, you know, the kind of lead back here with 120 or 127 carries. Jaden Blue at 91, Miles Sanders at 97. Gretz has Javante, similar carry number one, 32, but much higher on Jaden Blue at 146 and then a bit lower on Miles Sanders at 81. And Gretz also has a higher target projection on Jaden Blue at 49. We're only at 32. So I'm guessing just based on the projections that you're in on blue this season. It obviously seems like the type of backfield pretty fun, but on the rookie, you've got kind of two dusty veterans. You've got pretty upside efficiency guy in Jaden Blue. I was reading J.G. Zachary since prospect profile on him and he's kind of like, you know, most backs that are as small as blue that haven't had very many college carries. Yeah, there's some concerns, but if he's an outlier, it could break really, really good sort of thing on blue. And so it is someone that I found myself drafting a decent bit in this range around like 130. I'm curious how you see him though. I'm talking best ball. I notice in the FFPC redraft ADP, he goes much earlier and we tend to see that where the valuable handcuffs, because you don't need these usable volume guys. The market kind of knows to take them much earlier, but he goes like 116. So you're talking like 10th round on FFPC as opposed to let's say on a underdog, he's going, you know, in the mid 140s. He's really tricky. The prospect profile does not have a ton of volume in it, particularly rushing the ball. And that would be a real concern, right? Like, you know, he can say that he played behind B. John Erlin's career, then he played behind Jonathan Brooks, but last year he really should have gotten a lot more rushing if he's able to handle that type of work and he really didn't. And I think there's a real question about how much he can actually handle at the same time. This is a team that literally last year gave 274 touches to a player that through 4 NFL seasons had 113. That's Rico Dattel. This guy was a special team, so for four straight years, basically, and then they decided that they're going to make him into a 270 touchback. I'm not saying they're going to do that with blue, but we would have said the same thing last year about Dattel. I don't know if he can actually manage 250 plus touches because he never really did it. Now he had size in a way that blue doesn't profile, etc. It's a different thing. But it's a tricky thing. I do really like the Jaden Blue profile. It's extremely explosive. Ran really fast 40 good targets, Proud Run stuff in college. They got in the ball with intent in the past in games six receiving TDs last year, a two touchdown game in one of their college football playoff games to receiving TD game in one of the college football playoff games for Texas. You had doubt all with a big receiving TD rate last year, and they were kind of using some like screen game in the red zone a little bit at times. I do like blue to catch some touchdowns. I have Javante playing a lot of pass downs. I've been talked that blues not going to be the past blocker he is, but it basically have him playing empty downs in the past game like he did in Denver last year, basically, not getting the ball out of the backfield of time. I have blue basically blowing him away and targets per route out of the backfield like he's the guy that we get the ball in his hands with intent from a scheme perspective. When he's on the field, he's more likely to get a touch because he's on the field. He's got the other running back. It's more likely to get a touch because blues on the field. That's the way that I'm looking at that. He's got good mistackle force numbers, pretty solid yards after contact numbers for a volume low, excuse me, for a lighter guy. They brought in the film Mafa in the seventh round, but he had a pretty poor profile. He doesn't really make guys miss. He's more just a big dude. He's got some decent yards after contact stuff. I'm a little curious whether he makes a team. They have that hunter-lep key guy that played like full-back slash running back. Probably only one of those two makes it as the fourth back. You have Javonte, Miles Sanders, and then I think blues pretty clearly going to make it as the fifth round guy. But Mafa's a totally different player than blue, sort of my point. I do want to make one note on the Round 5 draft capital. I think it's better than it gets credit for like a lot of running backs in this class. We've talked about it on other shows. Shady was talking and pre-draft about the running back depth in this draft. I think they had a plan all along that we can wait till day three and we'll get one of these backs that we like. I do think where they took them. They still took them over some other interesting guys. I do think they like him. Then he's competing against Javonte Williams, 3.7 yards per carry, 5 yards per target last year. Tells the story. If you want to go look at the advanced metrics, they're also bad. Miles Sanders, 3.7 yards per carry last year, terrible yards per target for years and a row now. Can't plan the passing game. These are guys that you could probably play on volume. I do think they're going to play, but I don't think they're going to be efficient enough to be real game breakers. I think the clear upside plan in the backfield has to be blue. Yeah. I think it's the upside play. I'm a little torn on where to put Javonte on. If he can have a rego-doddle type season where he's just out there and he's just like, you know, fine enough, which in a baseball setting, you know, does play pretty well. Do you view the gap? I guess how do you view the gap between Javonte and Miles Sanders as far as trying to gauge Javonte's value here? If blue, let's say, does end up just a change of pace guy. Yeah. I'm probably overrating. I'm probably overcorrecting on Javonte because I was pretty into him last year, but his negative 83 rush yards over expected ranked fourth worst in the NFL last year per NFL pro. He had, there were just five qualified rushers with fewer runs of 10 plus yards out of 44 players. There were just four of those 44 who hit 15 plus miles per hour on fewer rushes. And he got plenty of volume last year and just there was no explosiveness whatsoever in that knee. It was tough to watch for a guy who was rooting for Javonte each week hoping and looking for some evidence he was turning a corner. I don't think he has it. Miles Sanders has not played as much the last couple of years. Like I said, his numbers have been bad, but I guess I think that if one of them surprises me, it would probably be Miles Sanders actually from a talent perspective that we saw that earlier in Miles Sanders career. I don't know that there's any reason I think the Miles Sanders is a massively different athlete than he was early in his career. I really like Javonte early in his career as well. I think the injury has changed his athletic profile, basically. And so I don't know that the same thing has happened for Sanders. Especially at the much cheaper cost would be the bet that I would prefer. Let's go to receiver CDLAM. In most formats, I think he's like the number five pick somewhat clearly. It's the same story we've talked about on the projections podcast the last few years, which is credible targets per out run. Incredible route share for a team that's going to have an above average amount of past attempts and a pretty efficient quarterback and it makes him an extremely safe selection. Maybe just lacks a touch of the upside of the guys at the very top of the draft, but he's pretty firmly five for me in most formats. Anything to add there on CD. He battled some injuries last year. Wondup will just 526 routes, which is a dip from past years. I would expect those routes to come back up. I actually think the injury stuff from last year is a favorable note for me because he mostly played through them. This gets tough. So you said I talked about it when I talk about DAC. He's super efficient relative to his depth and all that earns a ton of volume. He's also incredibly tough guy was playing through injuries in a lost season. I like those kinds of guys in fans like a little small extra note like I know this dude's going to play through everything like that's cool, you know. Yep, and not only playing through everything, but he was able to be successful from a fantasy perspective with Cooper Rush at quarterback, which, you know, never hurts to see that. Number two wide receivers clearly going to be George Pickens as we noted, there just really wasn't much competition here. You've got Pickens at 126 targets for 1158 yards and 5.8 touchdowns were at 102 targets for 886 yards and 6 touchdowns. He was able to play through a little light target share, not totally sure how he's going to fit in from a pure volume standpoint. He did impress me last year in terms of the target share that he earned granted in the lower pass volume offense. He was close to burning me as someone that I very heavily fated last year, kind of just because I didn't think he was that type of target share earner. So I think he's a good sign for Pickens and you know, if I just think this could work really, really well. It just it does come down a little bit to how much base volume you think he can get if you're closer to Gretchen's number, I think he's a great buy. If you're closer to our number, he's kind of like neutral. You talked about lamb still being productive with Cooper Rush. I think something that can't go overstated here is the cover that Pickens actually provides from I think it provides a real cover from lamb because he's such a good downfield receiver. You got to roll safety's over. You can't just one on one George Pickens and that's going to actually make things a lot easier for lamb. Having two guys is just going to be so much more meaning flu positive for DAC than basically just having lamb and nobody. Jalen Tolbert ran 553 routes last year, 13% targets per out was not good. This is the side of that plan that I mentioned at the top of the Cowboys section didn't work. This is a side that clearly didn't work was not adding a wide receiver to ask you the doubtful stuff you can argue is at least high floor, but I think they made too many decisions last year that were high floor at best. And obviously, and they didn't have enough playmaking in the offense. Pickens provides playmaking. He's the other guy that provides it clearly. And then there's no other competition behind that like Tolbert's kind of probably still run a decent number of routes. The one dude that was kind of interesting was Kavante turpin, but he was like a totally limited route. Guy like manufactured touches sort of and so I have him. Getting some work as a guy who you know situationally had over two yards per out run last year, but it can't scale. But the fact that he did that is evidence of the fact that they needed something any kind of explosives any kind of playmaking he's probably the best kicker turn the league and they're using him out of the backfield to just get some explosiveness into their offense. Again, that's another argument for Jaden blues like a good pass catching explosive back out of the backfield they were doing this with a kicker turn last year. Jason was fine, but didn't step forward with his targets per out run last year, even with a low eight odd obviously the QBs an issue and that last year the QB play and that helped those yards per target decline, but I don't think he we talked about on the show last year. And I thought you made a really good case at Ferguson at some potential for a year or three breakout and it got me a little bit more into Ferguson. We just didn't see that. So now our year for we probably assume he's just a guy at tight end. The other receivers are nothing like Jonathan Mingo is not a target owner, not a producer. But I think that's what I think that's what I think about the fact that he's not a good player. And I think that's what I think about the fact that he's not a good player. bit ahead of Hertz who is QB4. The case for Daniels over Hertz, I think, is just the offense running through him a little bit more. We both got him high 20s in terms of passing touchdowns, the handful or higher passing touchdowns more than you're projecting for Hertz. In terms of just overall yardage too, you're pretty similar, I think, in overall yardage, but we've got Jaden Daniels at like 3,900 yards passing, which is about 300 yards higher than we have Jalen Hertz. Yeah, a big part of that probably again is the sort of high floor stuff on the Hertz side. I can see a lot more scenarios with Daniels really taking off this year and exceeding my projection. Yeah, definitely incredibly high on the Daniels skill set. I reread a piece that I wrote in January, which was based off of buddy asking me a question. How was Jaden Daniels so good after they upset the Lions? And I wrote this whole piece about like the way that he plays and the way the offense plays and how they mesh together. And this is a heavy RPO offense. They get the ball out to the edge. Terri McClaurne had a long touchdown in that Lions game that was a wide receiver quick screen. So they do the RPO stuff, but they also do read option runs in close. Like a lot of teams will do that to hold the defensive ends and help the interior running game. We know that mobile quarterbacks positively affect running back efficiency. And so they have that element near the line of scrimmage where you have the multiple element of the of the rush game. The quarterback can run Daniels had a ton of rushing attempts. And especially when you control for the fact that they are rib injury there for a stretch. And during that time, he ran a little bit less, including the Carolina game. He left early. He didn't go over eight rush attempts for six straight. He was under nine and just three other of his 13 games, not including week 18. That includes all the playoffs though. And so he typically was running double digit times a game. So you have that what it does in the box. And then they do the RPO stuff where they pull and they throw quick to the edge. And that gets the ball out there. And Daniels, I think immediately as a rookie was so elated diagnosing where the numbers advantage is at the line of scrimmage across the field. And he's so would lead at accuracy at pulling and throwing quickly and getting the ball out to the edge on the RPOs that it creates. You know, obviously Terry McClorn doing a catch and run on a quick hit is the guy who gets all of the credit and should get all the credit. But there's something to be said for getting the the pre snap diagnosed and getting the ball to McClorn quickly and accurately so we can catch and run. You know, that half second of accuracy is something that he did very well all year. He did it very well with a lot of days of kies and all these dudes that are like just total basically nobody is honestly if we're like other than McClorn. There's not a whole lot of guys running routes in this offense that were expected to be strong players, skill players and Daniels is just elevating the whole offense. The other big part of all that stuff around the line of scrimmage is that then teams have to bring guys up and then you get the opportunities in one-on-one down the field. And you have to hit those throws. And that's something that like Anthony Richardson has really struggled with when those opportunities present down the field. He misses them. Jane Daniels hit those throws every time. I mean, like in that Detroit game I wrote about it. He had the big one to Deami Brown. He got a one-on-one down field and fitted in even when Deami Brown only had like a step. And it was a sweet throw. He hit and that's a big reason why Terry McClorn was second in receiving TDs last year. So this offense, Daniels is so difficult to defend is the point that I'm trying to make. And I think this stuff is very relevant for fantasy. You want to think about guys who have real ceiling. It's very tough to defend him both in the box or laterally the line up. a scrimmage in this Cliff Kingsbury offense, which was never this good with Kylin Murray because Daniels diagnosis and elevates it. And then he's good when he gets the opportunities down the field. That's where the passing yardage ceiling can come in as he can throw the deep ball as well as anybody are. I mean, this guy is so, so good. And going to running back, I don't have a lot to say with Brian Robinson. We've got a 188 or 183 carries for 765 yards, just under seven touchdowns. You're at 205 carries, 163 yards, a little more optimistic on the touchdowns at eight and a half. We've got him pretty neutral. We do have a slightly favorable stance on Austin Eckler, who we've got at 79 carries and 41 targets. You're at 89 carries and 36 targets. Tough to be in on an aging back. They did do some kind of split stuff. Sometimes when Robinson wasn't in there, but they did, they really gave Eckler the goal line work. He had a few rushing touchdowns, there's two weeks that Brian Robinson was hurt. Had an eight catch game in there. I think there's a bunch of upside here, but for basketball, I feel like if you need some usable weeks late, Eckler is going off like RB48 or something. He was RB27 and half a year after our points per game last year. So I don't mind that selection even as an age 30 back in this backfield that they really didn't add to this offseason. Yeah, I don't really hate it. I've not, we knew that the mobility might impact running back receiving. They only got 78 targets last year at the running back position was down 30 from the year prior, quite, quite low overall. On Robinson, only had a 4.2 yards per carry. Everything I was just describing sets up a lot of what I feel about how to evaluate the skill players because Daniel was positively impacted. The efficiency of a lot of guys. Eckler was at 4.6 yards per carry. That was his highest number since 2020. Jeremy, Jeremy McNickels played a decent amount in this offense, 4.5 yards per carry. Chris Rodriguez got some run, 4.9 yards per carry. It's almost hard to be at 4.2. Brian Robinson, when you're a run first runner and you're not doing a whole lot in the passing game either. So that's tough for me. I think he's fine and I think you'll get volume and he has a good TV rate and so does Eckler. But I do think Eckler looked more explosive than Robinson and I guess I don't think Robinson is really that special of a running back talent. So I think he's a high floor guy but he's not going to catch enough passes. He'll have some good runs because the offense will help. I mean, the way that I was describing the way that they'll space the defenses horizontally pre-snap is going to open up running lanes. It did open up running lanes. We saw he's running back to get some big runs. Probably better runs than sort of their talent would dictate. More scheme developed big runs. But Eckler did look spry. I mean, coming back over to Washington after his final season with the chargers and I kind of like that take. I'm not really targeting the running backs. I think the ceiling and the offense again, it really flows through Daniels. I didn't comment on sorry on the tempo thing. I wanted to note that they ran 70 plus plays in five of their final seven J and Daniels games. The tempo kind of added forward and then yeah, the so the Daniels rushing stuff for me and the projection could be really high as well. Like if they run a lot of plays and I mentioned that he ran a little less when he was banged up like he could he's the ceiling in the rushing game, I guess in a weird way to me. So I'm not really playing the backs a ton, but they're interesting at least. Yeah, we have we each have Daniels for on 830 rushing yards. Just a little bit lower touchdown volume than you see with like Josh Allen or Jalen Hertz. If he was able to get that type of touchdown volume, you know, it's a really, really high ceiling from a fantasy perspective for Daniels, but we're at five to six rushing touchdowns. People are under jacory, crosskey merit. He's a 24 year old round seven guy who played just one game last year due to eligibility issues. He had a great shrine game. He won the MVP there. Probably worth keeping an eye on, but I mean, there's possibility he's like a practice squad guy. Going to wide receiver, Terry McClore and someone that early in this off season, I haven't been getting a lot of, I think the markets come back to us a decent bet. I'm part of that just due to other receivers like Rishi Wright starting to move up the board, which is naturally forces someone like McCorm, who was at that, you know, two, three turn to drop a bit. We're at 110 targets for 925 yards, seven touchdowns. Gretcher at 123 targets for 1150 yards, nine touchdowns. Issue for me, I'm a corn, just kind of a volume thing. It's not going to be like a super heavy pass rate offense and he's not a really high target share guy. I do love these guys that are like efficient tied to a really good quarterback, but I just think the cost is a little bit rich given the volume limitations here. Yep, I completely agree. He's 20.8% targets per out last year, 1.98 yards per out run. It's very good. It's not a leap. His career, high and yards per out runs just a bit higher than that, just a touch over to. He's always sort of been that guy. I think, yeah, his career has 205. I think people are saying, yeah, but he's with Jane, Jane Daniels now. My account arguments that would be Jane Daniels put it incredibly high rate last year. Terima Claw and was second in the league in receiving TDs last year. And he only had a thousand and 96 yards. He has never put up 1200 in his career. Even with the 13 TDs, he was wide receiver 16 points per game. He's going wide receiver 18. It feels a little bit like double counting the Jane Daniels thing is what's happening here. When Daniels was already playing at a high level last year and there was already weak target competition, it's probably stronger this year. This guy's 30 in September. You just saw what the Terima Claw and Profile looks like in a good season with Jane Daniels. Can you go a step above that? That's the question. You did have a touchdown in all three of their postseason games and some strong postseason production. I think he's overvalued. Yeah. I think especially when you start getting into the full PPR formats, half PPR, you can just argue more for the touchdown upside in the efficiency. You get to the full PPR formats. There could be an extremely wide gap in terms of just total number of targets between McClaur and let's say Jackson Smith and Jigba, who goes at a similar point. We haven't done Seattle's division yet. We will, but that's just a guy that we have higher in the full PPR formats that I agree with. Wide receiver two is pretty interesting here with the DBO Samuel acquisition. This was one that Jack highlighted to definitely make sure to ask you about, if you see if DBO still got some gas left in the tank or not really disappointing your last year. It's tough to know if the pneumonia stuff that he came back from. He's got a lot of things where if you're making the bull case for DBO, it's like, oh, he was sick and the pneumonia affected him and he's not dust. He was struggling from that when he came back. Sometimes you can get into yourself into trouble making too many excuses for guys. It is what it is. Overall, I came away slightly optimistic on DBO. We're at 20 rush attempt, 115 rush yards and a touchdown on the ground. You're slightly lower in rush volume, but higher in pass volume, you've got to met 101 targets, but 827 yards. We're at 88 targets for 716 yards. But it want to shock me to see the target share on DBO be close to McCorn with the efficiency favoring Terry with just more downfield stuff. Right. I think you said all the concerns really well. The pneumonia stuff, it's hard to know how much obviously that impacted things. Things like his mistackles force per touch last year cratered. They've always been really good. He does running in, receiving and he avoids tackles and is very efficient with the ball in his hand and that just absolutely created it was still pretty good. Sometimes it's just astronomical in the peak of his career, but it was quite a bit lower. Yards after contact, not as good. The ball and hand stuff being so low is, but that could be the pneumonia. It's tough. The depth adjusted racer metric I was talking about a minute ago was still strong for him. Yards for target was a little weaker, but his ADOT was a little bit lower last year. He does have some drops issues and stuff that I wonder how good of a receiver he really is. But if all the places he could have landed, I think I would have been out on him in most in wash. In part because you're losing the rushing. I don't think people realize how important that is. He had 42 attempts last year, 37th year prior, 42th year prior, 59th year prior. He's getting a lot of value out of the running game. Last year he only had 136 yards in a TD. The three years prior to that, at least 225, at least three rushing TDs, as many as eight. Those are providing a lot of value to his fantasy profile. I don't know that he's going to get a bunch of that work in Washington necessarily, but the reason he's such a good fit is all the stuff I was saying about the quick hitting game. A lot of days, Ikea's had a 20.7% target's per route, which for an ancillary guy like him, that's a really high number. Most of that was the quick hitting stuff off RPOs. He was kind of that guy in the offense last year. That's one of the reasons, I've talked about RPO offenses consolidating a number one receiver. That's one of the concerns I have from a colon is because he's like the TrueX receiver vertical guy. He doesn't get the stuff on the RPOs on the short area throws. They were doing it for a Lombard azekeus last year, right? Debo's going to get all that. It seems like, right? That's what he's going to do. I think he could have a really high catch rate, have a lot of catches, his yak per reception last year, even without the strong evasion. rate was still pretty good. Average over eight yards after catch per reception, which for him it's typically between eight and 10 plus in his peak years, but he's never been below eight and he wasn't below eight here. I mean, that's a lot. Eight yards after the catch per reception. And so he's a dude that from an efficiency standpoint, it really comes down to the efficiency standpoint, I guess. And there's still stuff there that looks okay and the pneumonia stuff that you mentioned. The other side of it is he is either approaching 30 or right at 30. He's either 29 or 30. And you're talking about maybe that's a little bit older in Debo years because of all the rush attempts. You know, like that's part of we start to think about running backs being a lot older at 29 and 30. Whereas for receivers, maybe it doesn't feel as old, but he's a little bit of a hybrid and maybe he's taken enough hits over the years and these things. I have a really hard time with it. He's a really good fit for the offense because they don't have a lot of competition. Again, another team that doesn't have a strong receiver depth chart in terms of who's going to earn volume. And McClauren's not a super target dominant number one like we were talking about. So if Debo is healthy and good, they're they're sealing. There could be a lot of volume and the type of volume that he would get in terms of the RPO stuff. Yeah, and it's just really hard to know if he's going to be healthy and good and it's kind of the the risk that you're taking. I don't know if it's possible to really figure that out ahead of time. I don't know if there's much talk about beyond him. We do have Noah Brown as like a pretty good stack candidate late in bestball. As you know, kind of the clear wide receiver three here. He survived an injury scare like earlier in the off season. I know we went a few days not really knowing what happened, but nothing was reported on it. I don't know if he's going to be a good line. Luke McCaffer didn't really do much as a rookie behind him. Any takes on, you know, I guess the solidity of Noah Brown's wide receiver three job? I think he's fine. He's more of going to be like a vertical receiver and it's an offense that a lot of the passes are near the line of scrimmage and he's always going to probably be the second vertical receiver behind McClauren. He's sort of in a weird way like a contingent plan McClauren. I guess if McClauren were to miss time, then no Brown might have to be the main vertical receiver, but he's probably not going to consolidate volume. The other only like McCaffer had a really rough rookie year then they drafted Jalen Lane. And Jalen Lane has some kick return stuff in his profile, some really good ball and hand stuff. I think he has some rushing production in college. He's the other guy that could do like the the the Dibo Alamedez IKEA stuff where if Dibo is not right, I kind of like Jalen, Jalen Lane to have a little bit of ceiling. He would be like a waiver wire watch. Now we get to Zach Irts who we've under projected for like five years running. It's 91 targets last season. Actually like pretty solid efficiency, 7.2 yards per target was his best number in that regard since 2018. Now entering his age 35 season, we've been pretty conservative here 65 targets. You're at 84 targets. I wonder if we're even a little bit too conservative just given that he continues to seem as long as he's playing to be like a guy that coaches trust and put out there and like do just well enough to stay out there. And you talk about Jalen Daniels making players better. You know, Irts finds the end zone what like seven times last year, very high catch rate for him, which is part of the reason why the yards per target were high. They did draft bend Senate. You know, Lee, your prior, I was his working season last year. We kind of thought at a season he might start to overtake. Irts did not happen whatsoever. We're projecting 26 targets for Senate. You're only at 14, which is the main reason why you're so much higher on urges targets overall. Yeah, and I think they kind of are doing different stuff and the team isn't really they resigned. John Bates is like a blocking tight end. They see centered as one of like an H back like move guy that is also like talked about as a fullback sometimes. And Bates might just play more than Senate just basically didn't play. I mean, he really didn't get any volume last year. And I don't know that he's like the direct handcuffed to Irts even based on the way that they view him. I want to believe that. Obviously, I don't want to. I've been on a project. He's a decade. You said five years. It's been a decade for me. I mean, it's crazy. This guy's like not fun, but I mean, he's probably a good value. And then we just want to move on to the Giants. Like, I mean, he went 11104 in the NFC championship. He had another good year, 17.2% targets per out 1.3 O yards per out run. They're not strong or anything. They're just good. But the fact that he had 11 catches in the NFC championship game the last time we saw these guys like, and you mentioned it, the efficiency actually rebound here in those late 30s. Like he hasn't had a good yards per target in a half decade and then suddenly has like 7+ because he's playing with Jane Daniels. Yeah, Zacharyts is probably evaluating drafts. I don't want to admit that. Yeah. We're also at a position to where it's not like you're flooded with upside late. So to take a guy who you know is 35 and doesn't have a ton of athletic upside is like a little more tolerable, you know, when you're talking like T18, T20 here. The opportunity cost is different versus, you know, you're taking a dusty handcuff running back versus someone who has legitimate upside. In terms of what those can do for your team, like very different. He's probably a really good guy to pair with like Colson, Lovelin or Tyler Warren and Bestball. If you've already taken some rookie upside and like spike potential, then go take Zacharyts late. Let's go to the Giants. We're expecting to see Russell Wilson day one. But I, you know, we kind of think Jackson Darts going to end up taking most of the starts for the Giants. I've also got James in the mix. So the QB distribution here is a bit tough. We're at 62.2 plays per game. Gretchen at 61.6. We're very close on pass rate, about 62%. So we're really close on how the team play calling shakes out. Don't take us being close as a sign that this is an easy projection for the team because there's a lot of variance here given who's at quarterback. Also Wilson's, you know, holds the ball quite long going to take some sacks. You know, you do get a high scramble right on Jackson Darts. If it ends up being James Winston, though, you do kind of end up with a bit more pass volume generally. So a lot of variance in the team level assumptions for the Giants. Yeah. I wrote in my notes that I don't have a strong read on how past tendencies were influenced by the quarterback. Obviously, you know, you have Tommy DeVito and Drew Locke playing a lot last year and how the situation could be different. And so then I wrote, I'm just going to give them below average pace and a slight negative PROE because of a bad win total. And we ended up like basically identical, but I'm like, I can be anywhere, you know. And we know, Dave, although like if he did have a good quarterback wants to be a little bit more aggressive. So if like Jackson Dart was really good as rookie season, you know, how to get great camp took over and was good right away. You could see stuff being more aggressive. It's just, it's still tough to see year one here. It's probably a team year two of Jackson Dart. You might see some more optimism. Have been taking Dart sometimes. He's the only quarterback I've drafted from the Giants. It's a two quarterback league or best ball only taking him late just because I think he's the guy that's most likely to be starting at the end of the season. And he does have, you know, some rushing upside here. So there is a little bit of a ceiling to taking Dart late, but it is, it's just tough taking quarterbacks in best ball or any format where the job uncertainty is so high. Yeah, I had Dart scrambled on 7.3% of career dropbacks meaningfully higher than say cam wards 5.7%. But then I also said for reference, you have a guy like Drake May was over 11%. Jayden Daniels was at 14% last year. Bonix was only at 5.5% through college and then had some meaningful rushing upside last year. So I mean, Dart's somewhere in, you know, some some scrambled potential as you as you talked about the somewhere in a range where you're going to get some rushing. The other thing he did is he gapped the class in deep passing production, both in volume. He actually threw downfield a lot and also in on target rate and some of the other rates that's like touchdown rate. Some of that gets chalked up to the offense being sort of designed for certain things. You know, I don't fully understand what Lane Kiffin's doing down there at all miss. But I know as it relates to like tray Harrison stuff that discussion is like he just ran like two routes down the field, but he had like a five yards per out run. It's very very obscene with what some of the statistics actually look like in this offense. But it's I think it's a real upside argument for Dart that you're looking at like the on target rate and that stuff down the field being favorable. And you know, he doesn't quite have like the Drake May scrambled ability, but it's a it's sort of like a Drake May light profile. You're like this guy can move a little bit and he can push the ball vertically and probably pretty well. And you're talking about the potential for spike passing yardage and the potential for some rushing production. I projected it as rust playing 50% in Dart playing 50%. But I'm with you like I at least I kind of hope that Dart plays more. Let's go to running back another kind of unsettled room here. We've got Tyrone Tracy who was a rookie last year converted from wide receiver. I was somewhat impressed with his rookie season just not having a whole lot of running back wraps on his resume averaging 4.4 yards per carry did show he could handle a decent workload, but they draft camps get a bow who I know one athletic rider. Dan Dugan suggested that he thinks Scatabo is going to be the past down back, you know, more due to the past blocking stuff. I know some people on their heads assume it will be Tracy because he was a former receiver, but that might not necessarily be the case. This is one of these situations where the markets changed quite a bit. I know early in the off season, we were quite ahead of market on Tyrone Tracy behind on Scatabo. It seems like that's flipped, which is interesting. I don't think we've made too many adjustments. I think that's just an ADP thing. We're higher than you on Tracy. You definitely seem like you have a heavier stance on Scatabo. We're 165 carries for Tracy, only 119 for Scatabo. You are at 142 for Tracy, 170 for Cam. So yeah, curious your thoughts on Cam's odds of just being the RB1 here. I think you said all that really well. Tracy wasn't necessarily great last year, but people talk about some of his advanced stuff being worse than I think it was like a really bad runner. He had a 4.4 yards per carry in an offense, whereas teammates were, you know, single carry was at 3.9, Eric Gray in a very small sample is at 2.2. I mean, he was actually above average in rushing yards per carry while no one else that got touches was. And you mentioned the receiving background. The issue is his receiving efficiency wasn't necessarily great last year. Scatabo was legitimately fantastic as a prospect. His receiving stuff is actually really good. He's really good in space. The big note on him is like he didn't run a great 40. He's a bigger back and people are like, oh, he's a platter. His evasion rate stuff and mistackles for stuff and space back stuff looks like a small back. It's better than. Yeah, you know, it's very good. It's in another category than even like the second best backs in the class. It's not an ash and genty category, but it's above like a Maureen Hampton in these guys. Like in terms of if you look at something like a mistackles force per touch profile over multiple years, he's like up over 0.3 per touch approaching, I think 0.35, which is really, really strong. Genty's like a 0.4 because he's just in another stratosphere on that stuff. But Scatabo looks like a guy who, as you said, can play in space on passing down. And then he says, big physical guy, the past blocking stuff. I like Tracy a lot. What I got to in the projection was I think he's hurt most by the red zone work because Scatabo was just so much clearly so so clearly more like of the red zone profile. He says physical back, right? These are in between the tackles guy. But then he's also I think hurt in the passing game. And then you go, man, although, Sivai touched stuff that I was talking about the running back upside stuff, receiving and touchdown equity, Tracy's probably at it, like drawn dead for a lot of that. I mean, he's kind of a between the 20s back. I gave him a higher yards per carry than Scatabo because I think he's going to have more big runs. Like he's going to have more breakaway runs. It's going to pull up his yards per carry. Whereas Scatabo is more of like a success rate runner. But even though I think he's good and I think he's going to be a more efficient runner from a per carry standpoint than Scatabo, I don't think he can score in fantasy as well because the stuff that really matters is tough for him to get that work. Yeah, it's sort of the, you talked a little bit about trap backs with Seikwon and why he breaks the mold. It sounds like you're saying Tracy is a trap back and this wouldn't be one obviously. Which is weird because he was a receiver in college. Like you're saying. But I just think he's Scatabo is a better fit for the high value touch stuff. The other aspect to this is if like is Devon Singletary completely dead? Like does he only play if an injury or something happens in front of him or does he get some base touches? We generally with our projections lean more conservative than Grat. And you see that here with us having 65 carries for Singletary. Grature only at 35. So just the combined volume that we can get to on Tracy and Scatabo as a result is lower. And that's something that we might tweak. I'll give you a split on that. It might push you that way. He had double digit carries in the first four games that didn't have more than eight in the game after that. So if you're looking at full season numbers versus what he missed a little bit of time. I think in Tracy took over in that Seattle game versus like once Tracy had established and Singletary was more of a backup. He was pretty quickly and after thought he'll be 28. I think they're. He may play as like a past blocker, but I think he's a big threat for touch. That's why I haven't so low. Yeah. And of course we do have ceiling cases on Tracy and Scatabo. So I want people to think like our ranks are totally messed up by giving Singletary some touches, but it is going to impact things a little bit. Let's go to wide receiver. Man, Malik neighbors, huge hit for us last year. The market sort of undervalued how good of a prospect. He was and he was able to hit even with some tough quarterback play. You've got him at 167 targets for 1444 yards. We're 147 targets for about 1100 yards, both of us at around seven touchdowns. I think you're a bit. You're definitely baking in a little bit more regression in terms of yards per catch with better quarterback play. That's something that we might be too low on. We're only on 11 and a half yards per catch, which is probably too low. We're at 13.5. It's tough because Dave will manufacture neighbors touches, which sometimes will result to a lower yards per completion on those touches. But quarterback play was so bad that even with the uncertainty this year, you're assuming better. I think profile wise, I mean, this guy that very easily next year could be a top five pick in redraft formats. Again, we just talk about the difficulty of like, you know, you've got Puka, Amman Ra, CMC, you know, it's tough first round. So I'm interested to hear where you placed him in that first round. Yeah. 29.7% targets per out is really a lead stuff, especially for a rookie, a young rookie. A three year early declare like young rookie, 0.73 weighted targets per out. But his eight out was actually low because again, he got a lot of drulac, he got a lot of Tommy to veto. They had to manufacture himself. Dale Jones doesn't push the ball down the field. His eight out was 9.7. His collegiate eight outs were 11.9, 11.8, 12.2. Very consistently in the 12.0 range, which the average first, he was about 11. He was about a full more than a full yard below average in this giant's offense last year. So the reason I'm projecting so much regression on the yards per catch is I bumped his eight out a lot because Jackson darts eight out is high. And Russell Wilson's is also high. So both of the quarterbacks in this offense are guys that actually pushed the ball vertically quite a bit. There will be manufactured plays, but neighbors, air yards per target at least, you know, the eight out part of it, right? They're, I was going to say his overall air yards are locked to rise. They probably are, although he had a 29.7% targets per out last year. So maybe he can't match the target rate. It's so high. But I do think he's going to get a lot more air yards, especially when you think about it, you know, per target as I was saying the eight out part of it, which correlates with yards per target correlates with the yards per catch. The more vertical the passing is when you do catch it, you're going to gain more yards. Obviously, another huge debt data point on neighbors. He dominated Brian Thomas in volume last year. It's part of the reason I was a little skeptical on Thomas. We talked about how you got me on him a little bit when we did the AFC Southpot already. We got information in 2024 that Brian Thomas is extremely good and probably would have been more target dominant at the college level if he wasn't playing with Malik neighbors. We got some evidence last year at the NFL level that the LSU data for neighbors was stronger than an evening. Then we may have known. So I think this is an extremely target dominant player, probably a true superstar. I think his rookie year was held back situation only. The questions whether that happens again in 2025. It could happen. At least you have the coaching staff back, which was the team that forced him the ball last year at the 30% targets per hour rate. They're going to give him some of the short stuff. I do think the TD rates are concerned. But like I said, I think the A-DOT is going to jump. I think that should help yards per target. I think he's a really good bet to be up there in receiving yardage. Flooding with the league leaders, that's what my projection shows here. I have him over 1400 receiving yards. I think only two players in the league last year hit 1300. So that was Jason Jefferson. He's going to be up there, I think, with those guys in yardage. The touchdown side of it is probably what keeps him more of a later first round pick, as you were saying. Yeah. And again, it's tough. I'm even just as you're talking messing around with upping that yard's per reception. Because I think we should get it to at least 12. But it's like such a tight group of players that, and I want people to understand this with projections that I don't think this is a bad thing. But you can change something really small and it'll change the rankings by a few spots. Just means guys are really close. So you can, that's why you don't want to be too much adhering to rankings as this super firm list. It's better to understand the tiers and the types of bets you're making. Where if you think neighbors is just like this extremely safe bet, one of the best talented receivers in the entire NFL, you can take them whether we have a ranked seventh or a five-and-a-half, because we move the yards per catch by half a yard is sort of trivial. It's more about the overall. What I'm hearing is you support my Devon HN as top five, Tick. I can get I can get there on vibes if the only thing I'm going to say on the 8chan one is when you get into top five you start to run into the rest of that Miami just isn't good. I guess it's yeah. Same thing with neighbors. Yeah. You could push neighbors to the top five too but then you have to tell yourself somebody has got to throw a lot of touchdowns for the giant suddenly. Yeah. All right behind him you've got two extremely different players. You've got Wondale Robinson very low a dot guy could rack up a lot of catches targets and then you've got Darius Sladen who is a down the field player who's going to be much higher a dot. We've got lower target projections on these two guys so just have the offense a little bit less concentrated overall. We've got 82 targets on Wondale leads to 55 for 460. You're much more optimistic to get 114 team with 78 for 745. Slating somewhat similar story we're at 53 targets. You're at 75. I'm guessing that's mostly coming down to just volume spread out over to the other guys. Our target share is just for reference our 16% 15 to 16% on Wondale on about 10% on Sladen. Yeah and they really just don't have a lot of other guys but it could very well be a situation where different dudes rotate through throughout the year how things play out over the course of 17 games. The Wondale question is really interesting because I think it's pretty much impossible to do what he did last year. He had a 1.21 yards per outrun which is very bad with a 22.1% targets per out. He did it at a 5.18 out and a 5.3 yards per target. He had a bunch of those games where you have like eight catches for 20 yards. I know there's a lot of people that look at the wider receiver stuff and say that a lot of what he did was gimmicky in this and that. I will note that his targets per out good early in his career before he got hurt and he was starting to kind of almost break out. Extremely good as a prospect and even at higher Adox. Is freshman year in college he was at like a 2.8 out. It was manufactured stuff. It rose each season of his three years and his final year was about 10 at 8 out which is like close to like a normal receiver. He's not going to be a high A dot player. I do think what he did last year is is pretty. People are looking at it like he can't be efficient enough to be worth drafting. This is a dude who the way that I would look at it is he had a 22.1% targets per out and he's going in like the what 16th round he had 140 targets last year and he's going in the 16th round and there's no new competition. It's serious slating Jalen high at the same tight ends. There's not anybody who and so I mean neighbors had a 29.7% targets per out last year and is going to do that again. May even go higher. I don't know but I guess my question is how confident are the people who think Wandaile can't be good enough that he won't be more efficient with better QB play and as I just talked about those QBs are going to have higher Adox. They're going to push the ball vertically more. I don't know if that I mean that might actually shift work away from A from Wandaile. It might actually lead to him catching a few more balls that are 10 to 15 yards down field. Maybe not true deep shots or anything but it may raise his A dot a little bit. His first two years as his yards per target were a 7.3 and 6.8 at similar Adox that that's not good. But again last year he was at 5.3 so meaningfully lower. If he's earning volume at this rate and there's not really a lot of competition for volume in the underneath areas other than neighbors himself. I mean you got to be really confident that he can't do anything after the catch or anything on like a yard's per target basis to not be taking him in the 16th round especially in full PPR. I think on underdog it's different because the TD rate's not going to be good and now you're just talking about trying to add up a ton of half point receptions right but in full PPR the reception I know people like to say PPR's game this and the other thing we're playing a game based on a game we're playing it the way it's it's dealt if you're playing in PPR he's going to have games where it catches a lot of balls and as a usable player it's probably a little bit more high floor low ceiling but 16th round man that's pretty well. Yeah and this is you know a best ball take where you're getting these really usable weeks might not get the upside that you're ever going to need to like really start them in redraft. I think Slade into even at his cost you know is the same sort of token and he could benefit if from the the higher eight-out stuff from Ross and Jackson Dark he's been a pretty successful down the field receiver. I'd note that we're ahead at ADP on both Wondale and Slade in with much more conservative target projections so makes me feel a little bit better about those positions knowing that we wouldn't even have to increase them to really have them as values. At tight end Theo Johnson is sometimes hanging around there you know rounds 18 to 20 depending on the site that you draft at a we're both similarly projecting him for around 55 targets just over 400 yards only about a couple touchdowns anything to add on Theo Johnson here. Well it hasn't been intriguing depth adjusted efficiency but so did Daniel Belinger and he earned just 11.7 percent targets per route bad prospect profile for our production standpoint for Theo. I think he's at the skill level where Daniel Belinger is actually like an annoyance sort of thing you know what I mean like he can't really just fully consolidate the tight end work because he's just probably not that good he's gonna do some interesting stuff on catch and run and everything but you really want a guy like this to consolidate the routes when it's not a very good passing game and there's good receiver I mean at least one star receiver it doesn't look like he's probably that kind of guy. All right that's gonna do it for us on this episode of the offseason projection special again check out Ben's work at bandgredgedoutsubstack.com including his upcoming piece on the Miami Dolphins being offense to target you can find all my contributions to our rankings over at established the run.com is always thank you to Jack Miller Mark Dink and Brain Sam Walsack who are helping a ton on the offseason projections front carrying that the heavy burden for me thanks to the listeners for tuning in and yeah we'll be back with another episode we're halfway through and we'll finish up the final four divisions here appreciate you all. you