ETE Projections Special Part 2: AFC South with Ben Gretch

[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to another edition of the established Cedge podcast. I'm Mark Duncan-Ring and will be your host today alongside our two NFL projections mavens on this series, Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. This will continue to be the team by team. Projections preview crew this off season with Jack and I standing in for Mike Leone. This summer episode one of the series covered the NFC South and we opened up that episode with a little overview of some league wide trends that are influencing our projections process this season as well. So be sure to go back and check that out if this is your first time tuning in with us this summer. That being said, Gretch, it is your birthday today, how you feeling as we enter the AFC South projections pod? Feel good, probably old is the right decision 39 today. But yeah, no, and then we get to talk about the AFC South. So not exactly a thrilling start to a birthday, but we have some interesting trends here. It's not the most exciting division, but some interesting trends. Absolutely. Jack, your close personal friend Keaton Wogler was just drafted, fit overall, NBA draft, how you feeling today? A big shout out Illinois. Happy for Keaton. I was going to guess 27 for Gretch, so looking nice and young and spry. But I was happy with how the first episode one, so I'm excited to be back for episode two with the AFC South. Yeah, it should be a fun one here today, a little bit more continuity in this division than we had in the NFC South, only one new coaching staff here to discuss. And I think all four quarterbacks are returning here for their respective teams. So a little more continuity there helps us out in the projection streets a little bit, but certainly a lot to get into. I think the Jaguars, who will hit on in this episode are one of the toughest teams to project this whole off season. I've gotten that question throughout the summer. Hey, what's the toughest team to project right now in the Jaguar? Certainly of teams that we expect to be fantasy relevant, I think are kind of the toughest to distribute touches. So we're going to start with the Texans here. Head coach, Domingo Ryan's once again for Houston. Nick Kaley will be the offensive coordinator and play collar. Again, this season for the Texans. Kind of an interesting, you know, end to the 2025 season for Houston and in CJ Shroud as as I struggled mightily in the playoffs and will return, you know, one of the best defenses in the league this season. We have for a play team level play calling here at ETR. We are at 61.9 plays. Gretches at 62.2. We are a bit higher on the pass rate here at 60.1 percent Gretch at 57.5%. So I want to toss it to Gretch here first since since he is a little bit lower on the team pass rate. And I'm kind of curious to just on the Texans. Again, you know, we saw Strahd's playoff collapse there a little bit and we have a defensive-minded head coach in Domingo Ryan's. Do we think like the Texans are going to kind of pack it in this year? Is that why you're a little bit lower on pass rate Gretch there or any other thoughts kind of on a team level here for the Texans? Yeah, I think about them as kind of a throwback to like 20 years ago to like the the the odds decade where you had good defenses run heavy teams. I think Domingo Ryan's likes to coach that way. They're obviously a very good defensive team. One of the probably top three defenses in the league. One of the things about them that I don't really know what to make of them, the projections I'm excited again to the position stuff is I feel like they don't allocate skill position usage well. I don't think they allocated the wide receiver routes well last year. I felt like they made weird running back decisions. Although I think and a big reason why I'm lower on the pass right here, I think they were anticipating Joe Mexton being a part of the team last year. And obviously you have the health stuff. They weren't really planning to go into the season with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb as their guys. They were I think in my notes that they're a pass heavier than you'd think. But I think that that's because I didn't have the running back that they wanted. They go out. They get David Montgomery. That's where I have it shifting is it's like they have been nothing but gushing over like the most boring veteran running back you could bring in this off season. That's like that's a foregone conclusion for me. That's what that's what Domingo Ryan's wants. That's what these guys want. That's the the OOs the Oats like version of this team in terms of how I think through them. This is from the moment that trade was made. These guys are going to want to pound the rock. They're telegraphing it. That's that's what I'm seeing. It's going to be an interesting conversation, Jack, just because I think last year too, we got a little bit of mixed signals from the play calling as well. CJ Stroud was healthy to start the season. The Texans had a positive pass rate over expectation in five of their first seven games with CJ Stroud. Then he suffers a concussion. Mrs. Three games in the back half of the season. They were negative and pass rate over expectation every every single week until their last game against the Patriots. Last year they were at 61 point or excuse me 60.3 percent pass rate. We are at 60.1 percent this season. They finished a level and overall and pass rate over expectation. How are you kind of viewing this Texans team level approach this off season as they did bring in David Montgomery as Gretchen alluded to there? Yeah, I think we're aligned with Gretchen and that we're expecting more of a run heavy tilt this year. We have the pass rate currently, Dr. 1 percent from where our algo has it. Like you mentioned, they got more run heavy over the back half of the year in week 17 and 19, which were their two highest leverage games of the year. They didn't really have anything to play for in week 18. They had a negative 8 percent and a negative 5 percent pass rate over expectation and we saw how Stroud was basically turned into a pumpkin in the playoffs. I think that that kind of supports getting a more run heavy offense this year. I will kind of add on the mix and stuff. I think that they did have a little bit of prep time before the season last year. We kind of heard whispers in July that the mix and stuff was a lot worse than publicly known and we ended up being quite long him throughout the off season. I think the Texans had at least a couple of months before the season where they knew Mixen probably wasn't going to be a part of their plans and they didn't really do a whole lot to amend the situation. With that being said, I think between going out and prioritizing David Montgomery this off season and with how they turn more run heavy throughout the season and Stroud becoming so incompetent really in the highest level of games of the year last year. I do think that it's possible that we didn't adjust from our algorithm enough and that we could lower the pass rate even more and maybe get closer to where it gratches now. It's interesting. I know you guys have here. I trust your algorithm more than anything that I'm doing. I just use a linear model against Vegas win total to do expected pass rate and that has me because they're at like 9.5 wins juice to the over like they have a good D they're expected to lead in games. That has me at about 59.4% as an expected rate and so I'm saying they're going to be a negative 2% PROE team lean toward the run. They've been a little more neutral the last couple of years. It's interesting that your number comes in higher than what my win total expected rate is and maybe that's me like needing to recalibrate that model a little bit. Well, we haven't expected drop-back rate as well which is at 59.7% for Houston and so even though our algo ends up a little bit higher on the final drop-back rate, it sounds like we are pretty similar at least in that that single metric there. All right, let's get into CJ Strauss fantasy value this year. You know, he's had a couple rough seasons after that amazing rookie year finished as the QB9 in his rookie season and then QB27 in 2024 QB21 last year. He scrambled a bit more to start the season last year. 20 of his 28 scramble came within the first eight games. So about two and a half per game again. Then he had that concussion. He only scrambled eight times total in the next eight games. So for me, a big question of this offseason again is just kind of how the Texans approached this overall with Strauss. Are they going to let him scramble a little bit more? Are they going to remain to be pass heavy? Or are they going to kind of lean into this defensive identity and Dave Montgomery and Woody Marx in the backfield? So our projections on CJ Strauss are actually nearly identical despite the gap and pass rate both ETR and Gretchen have 542 pass attempts for CJ Strauss, similar yardage production and touchdown production as well. So we have CJ Strauss right now in the QB20s in fantasy. So probably not the best single QB fantasy target for this upcoming season, but probably some some appeal and super flex leagues. We'll talk about Cam Ward later. Cam Ward is currently going above CJ Strauss on underrogate ADP, which seems a little backwards to me. So Jack, how did you talk about any or our inputs into CJ Strauss and any thoughts on his fantasy outlook this season? Yeah, like you said, we're really aligned with Gretchen. And I agree that he's not super interesting given how his last season ended and how Gretchen and us are both expecting more runs this year. The big difference we have with Gretchen is on the yards per attempt. We're at 7.2. Gretchen is at 7.55. Strauss yards per attempt has really been all over the place. He was all the way up at 8.2 as a rookie down to 7 in year 2 and back up to 7.2 last year. So we're kind of more in the range of the last two years and gretches about at his career. for a year's per attempt of 7.5. I do think with Christian Kirk gone, you could see maybe a little bump in efficiency Kirk was horrifically inefficient last year. I think it was at 4.6 yards per target, so I don't know if that's where Gratges expecting the change to be with more of those targets going to Higgins, Dail and Null, or Tankdale. But that's really the only spot that we have any sort of discrepancy on the strut projection. Yeah, and I think that just gets back to something I think we mentioned on the first episode. I think that's going to be a theme, the yards per attempt for BB a little bit hotter, because I'm projecting more targets for Nico, more for Higgins, more for all those guys, as well you guys have more for the secondary players and more spread out. I'm projecting more health. And we always talk about my projections on the series in the past, I've always talked about with Leoni, or like a 60th percentile outcome, or maybe even a little higher sometimes. I'm projecting more volume to the more efficient players, which gets back to your point about Kirk being gone, and how the receiver efficiency and projections feedback to the quarterback stuff. So this is a little bit more of a better than median outcome for strad from an efficiency standpoint. My big notes on strad where that like his completion percentage fell for a second straight year, yards per attempt, A dot, two, his interception rate climbed. They're all getting worse like year over year at the same time, especially as you talk about with the concussion, his sac rate cratered. So sac rate went from 9% in year two to 5.2% in year three. In some ways, I think you can call it improvement, that those per attempt numbers weren't much worse while you're cutting the sac rate like almost in half. Like you're getting the ball out and you're not getting crushed on the per attempt efficiency. So I think we're seeing maybe probably incremental improvement there from strad, although he has not approached the rookie year efficiency. Since that rookie year, I do think the efficiency stuff you talked about as we get into the position player stuff. I mean, the Christian Kirk thing disaster. Xavier Hutchinson ran 401 routes last year at a 1.07 yards per out run. Just absolutely wild. I don't know what they're doing. He had a sub one yards per out run over the first two years over about 400 total routes, about 200 each year. And they're like, hey, let's double his per, you know, per season routes. Let's make this guy more of a focal point. Let's take the rookies that we, you know, drafted high and really like and bring them along, you know, pretty slowly, I think. And as we get into that stuff, I mean, I'm skipping ahead. But the Jaden Higgins thing, he played full snaps when Nico missed in like whatever it was week seven. He played full snaps when Nico was out later in the year. It didn't seem like they had any concern about getting Higgins into a full every down role. It just seemed like they didn't have a plan for playing him alongside Nico Collins. They had him, which is why you took him at the very top of round two. Like what is he's a handcuff? I mean, I'm that that was the hardest thing for the projection for me when we get ahead to the wide receivers was what to do with Higgins. I projected him like they're going to have a better plan for your two than they did in your one because it's the only thing that makes sense. If they're going to play these guys together, that they're going to play less as a of your Hutchinson. But I mean, there's nothing in the data last year that suggests that they have that figured out or even have an interest in that. Yeah, we can honestly get into that right now and then just hop back to the running back room afterwards because I do think the wide receiver room is interesting here. You also have Tankdale likely returning from an injury that cost him to miss all of last season. Yeah, Jaden Higgins, I have in my notes here, you know, essentially a Nico clone in terms of his deployment last season. Like they're their alignment percentages from out wide in the slot. They're eight out are essentially the exact same. And then we did see Jaden Higgins, you know, kind of get some decent target looks when Nico Collins was out in the three games without Nico. He had a 20 and a half percent target share 16% and then 21% target there. Share for the routes. And the routes. The routes, I'll, I'll let Jack jump in here, but I just want to, I want to grab the routes numbers because they never went his routes never went over 68% by PFF's numbers in any game that Nico played in the first game Nico missed in week eight. He jumped to 76% and then Nico didn't play week 18. He was at 94% we go Nico also didn't play their final game in the post season. Have it as week 20. He was at and Jaden Higgins was at 94% that time as well in between there. He was at 43% in the first playoff game when Nico was back. So he goes 94% in 18 43% 94% he's like this 50 to 60% route guy whenever Nico's in and then he's 75% plus in all three games that Nico's out starting in week seven. It's not like they needed to let this rookie develop. This was a clearly like an on off thing in terms of usage and it doesn't make any sense to be sorry. No, it's and I mean it comes back to the Xavier Hutchinson point a little bit too. I think teams like I kind of like a can him to Mac Hollins, you know, a little bit like team just seem to like love having the dude out on the field even though he's, he's not very productive. But yeah, Jack any any thoughts kind of on how this wider receiver core Shaka shook out last year. Yeah, I have the same notes on Higgins is Gretz that he never really eclipsed. He was mostly in the 50 to 60% snap range when Nico was healthy. He did have six touchdowns on I think it was 68 targets as a rookie. So I mean given his size and make some studies a red zone target. So it was at least good to see that we're kind of projecting. We're not projecting quite like a clear wider receiver to full time role, but we are projecting a larger role than he was last year. So we're kind of middling it at the moment to be honest. And part of that is because they have two other wide receivers who are at least interesting and should buy for snaps and Jalen more and tank Dell. The tank stuff is obviously pretty dependent on how his injury recovery goes. It sounds pretty positive on an OTA. He was doing non contact drills. And we'll see what he does in training camp in the preseason. Everything in his knee ACL, LCO, Meniscus dislocated his knee, missed all of last year. So that's obviously a pretty unprecedented type of injury recovery we're looking at. So we're kind of in wait and see him out there. But the Jalen most stuff I thought was probably even weirder than the Higgins stuff. Because Christian Kirk was so bad on a perturget basis last year. Obviously he had that one game in the playoffs. But Kirk was at 4.6 yards per target in the regular season. And they still decided to absolutely crush Jalen Ola in the high leverage games. He played 9% and 8% of snaps in their two playoffs games without Christian Kirk's role grew. Ola was their second most efficient wide receiver on a yards critical basis. The reporting on him has been positive this offseason. He's been called a standout of their offseason program. So we're kind of expecting more competency and role to be that slot receiver that Kirk was last year. But it is a little bit of a projection or guesswork I guess you'd say after how much they crushed him in the high leverage spots down the stretch last year. No doubt. Go ahead. Yeah, go ahead, Grach. Oh, I was just going to say the people that are really into wide receiver roles. I should note that I don't get that into wide receiver roles. My theory on it is you got to get the talent out there. And a lot of these receivers can play different roles. They can move around. There are some guys that are like so there's probably people that are screaming at their podcast or their screen. If they're watching this on their headphones or their screen. That the reason for the Higgins trends that I was saying is that they're both classic ex receivers. You can play these guys together. There are ways to do it. There are, I mean, I understand that there are some limitations. But to Jack's point, no one's playing a completely different position. He's a slot and Christian Kirk was horrible. This is gets back to the deployment thing that is so hard for me on a team level to understand like what they were doing across the board. And Jack's point earlier about the mixing thing where they did have a little bit of an advanced knowledge and they were like. I mean, they were excited about marks, but marks did not have much of a rushing profile that the when you draft that player you're thinking pass downs and he had a insane receiving profile like reception volume throughout college. Across multiple teams, but he really didn't have many reasons to believe that he could be a between the tackles grinder as a runner and he wasn't throughout his whole career. He had a horrible stuff in terms of like evasion breakaway, right yards after contact, which was all in the prospect profile and you had an old Nick Chubb and that's so anyway that the deployment stuff and what they're trying to do, it just doesn't make a ton of sense. And then even getting back to the Higgin saying, if your issue is that he's an ex receiver and you can't make him work with Nico Collins, then why did you draft him at the beginning of the second round when you have other needs like make, you know, make other decisions. So this is one of these teams we have to talk about the 12 and 13 personnel stuff as well when we move into the tight ends. I wanted to get your thoughts on on Dell because I'm projecting Dell and I'm bouncing around but I'm projecting Dell a little bit pessimistically because of all those quotes you mentioned like he's working off to the side even a full year back. His whole knee has to had to be reconstructed as Jack talked about. So I have no is kind of the clear number three, although I don't have a massive role for no and I have kind of no and Dell. Working off each other a little but I don't know that that really makes sense. I think I could get a little more optimistic and I like that take from Jack from Jack for the receivers. But I do think we're going to get a lot of 12 and 13 personnel, which then I think in some of those formation gets gets you back to like two classic outside wide receivers and I think you can probably play Nico and Higgins as he's like to you know outside wide receivers in some of those formations. I think they're going to roster a lot of tight ends they already had Kate Stover and Breven Jordan behind Dalton Sholtz they drafted around to pick in Marlin Klein they also added foster Marrow both of those guys. are like blocking tight ends. This is a team that looks like they're going to go into that. That's another reason I move the run rate. I think this is a team that's going to be one of the biggest to copy the trends of last year, the 12 and 13 stuff, and try to make it more of their base and really run as much as they possibly can. Because I think Tameco Ryan wants to have his offense operate that way. They don't have a good offensive line. They can protect Stroud better that way by using him more off play action and getting more blocking tight ends onto the field. Again, they acquire two one in free agency, one of the most revered blocking veteran blocking multi-tied ends set guys in the league in Foster Merot, and then drafting another in round two in Marlon Klein. They're basically like even if we have injuries, we're going to have a lot of depth at tight end. And so that's part of why I'm not as high on Noal. When I'm talking about on the offseason, they're still talking about the special team stuff with him. And so I kind of feel like Dell and Jalen Noal are plays that I don't really want to make in this past game because I kind of feel like we're going to get a lot of the two wide receiver stuff. As part of why I wind up back optimistic about Higgins, because if they do go that direction, we know that the trends are positive for the wide receivers that are on the field in the multi-wide receiver sets. So if it's Nico and Higgins mostly on the field and two receiver sets, then I think you're probably talking about Higgins being pretty interesting going into year two even though, again, I'm projecting a lot in terms of the roll change. Yeah, I think Dell's an interesting spot. And maybe one where, I mean, the term projection even makes it sound more quantitative than it really is. I mean, with a guy who has in play football in like almost two years, it's almost just a guess on where he's going to be and trying to read between the T-Leaves on the reporting. We are a little bit hotter, tank than you, which does feel a little bit scary coming off so much mistime. So maybe that's one we could relook at. But I think your point about the 12 and 13 personnel or mostly the 12 personnel looking at their numbers from last year is well taken because Stover missed some time with injuries, but I'm looking at their last six games then here. I think the Texans in total were second or third in terms of 11 personnel right last year, but their last six games once Stover got healthy. They ran 12 on 38%, 15%, 27%, 19%, 33%, and 24% of snaps. Those were six of their top seven highest rates of 12 personnel. Their only other was in week 12. So basically right before that stretch. So they really did start to do multi-tied on stuff once Stover got back and then they drafted my line in a second round. So I think that's a pretty good point honestly. And we could be collectively too high on the Wider Seepher 3s as a group if they do run more to Wider Seepher stuff with Collins and Higgins. And I mean in turn that could mean if we're projecting Higgins to be in more of a full time role than he was last year. We could also be too low Jaden Higgins right now if it's going to be him and Nico on the field with presumably Charlton Stover. I think Klein is maybe more of a developmental guy. I'm just given you know how long he's been playing football. The one thing I want to note I have about 20 more targets on Higgins and you guys you have about 20 more for Xavier Hutchinson which is probably right but I just don't want to admit it. Yeah they do consistently keep coming back to Hutchinson. It's kind of unbelievable given his his per-round per target numbers. They've been brutal. They have been improving although in the first two years there really was nowhere to go but up he was just so horrific. But yeah they do insist on playing him and they continued with that last year. Yeah and you guys mentioned just how much Christian Kirk struggled last year too and they kept playing him ahead of some of the younger guys there too. So Hutchinson is a guy too and like the Coach Peak indexed like they they'll continue to pump him up and be like oh Hutch is such an important player and for our team he you know continues to get better year-to-year. So it's one of those spots where you know we as fancy players we want to see them just just our Jaden Higgins and Tankdale and Jalen Noel and and all these you know youthful talents out there but Hutchinson could could be a potential sticking point in playing time there. Doing a hit on Nico Collins we've talked about this wider C-Record and barely hit on Nico at all just just an absolute grown S-man out there is Nico Collins. I think the clear alpha in this offense. So you know we're going to be one of the main wide receivers outside and then I think you know you have Higgins and Dell and Hutchinson kind of you know fighting for that second spot outside. Nico Collins is a player for us he's kind of like an outlier efficiency guy that that our ETR models have kind of always struggled to get high enough on. At this point in his career is at 9.6 yards per target and we're at 8.8 so even some potential room to come up there but even with that you know we have Nico Collins as as like a strong strong target in the second round so certainly think he is a viable option in all fantasy formats there in the second rounds to target. Let's get back to the running back room because they did add Dave Montgomery here in the off season. Gretchen alluded to kind of the you know unusual role or not unusual but you know surprising role that Woody Marx was was thrust into last year Woody Marx 196 carries in the regular season and not very much involvement in the past game there so quite a bit different than we were expecting from Woody as he came into the season. They signed Dave Montgomery to a two year 16 million dollar contract 10 million dollars guaranteed so you know the biggest question to me is kind of how legit of an RB1 will Dave Montgomery be right now. We are at 204 carries on D-Mont Gretchen's at 262 quite a bit higher on on the rush TD department as well he has 10.7 we're at 7.2 we are a little bit higher on the yards per carry which I think is interesting just because when Montgomery was in Chicago he averaged 3.9 and you know more of a full-time role and then in Detroit he was at 4 and a half yards per carry so we saw his his efficiency get a little bit higher and a lesser role and just a more efficient offense in Detroit there and then you know with us being lower on D-Mont we're also a little bit higher on Woody Marx rush attempts at 115 Gretchen's at 82 there so Jack curious your thoughts on on kind of our split with with D-Mont and Woody Marx this is a spot you feel confident in and then we can kick it over to Gretchen's thoughts on how this backfield split plays out. Yeah I think the Texans want it to be how Gretchen has it I mean the their running backs coach recently said on Woody this is a quote he said his role is going to pick up some third down some special teams kickoff return guy but more importantly probably in the past game that doesn't really sound like a guy that they have big hopes for as a runner and that aligned with what they what people thought about him coming out of college he was mostly touted as a a pastown guy and he was probably frankly pretty unfairly thrust into a much larger rushing role than he could handle and he didn't do very well with it unsurprisingly. I think the main question is just how many carries can you really project for a 29 year old David Montgomery? I think that's really the question I think that to begin the year Houston once Montgomery to be their workhorse especially on early downs but 262 carries for a 29 year old journeyman at this point running back seems like a little bit too hot to me but I think if we're talking like season long versus week one projections if we're projecting a week one I think we'd have Montgomery basically as a workhorse rushing wise I also had the same note on the yards per carry he's been at 4.5 and 4.2 yards per carry the last two years which isn't anything special and now he goes from Detroit to Houston which is a big downgrade in both offensive line and offensive environment on the whole and on the last note I had here was CJ Stroud running back targets by year 13% 17% 13% that's Houston's as a whole not just Stroud to be clear but those 13% numbers are both basically near the bottom of the league so it's going to be probably in average offense at best they don't throw to running backs all that much so you really do need the wrestling volume with with demon to get there. Yeah the one thing when I see our comparison here my projection in in targets is is almost certainly too high or feels feels too high that was weird about what he marks his usage last year a lot of my projection here is looking back at 2024 the same it's not the same coordinator but it's the same head coaching staff they bring in a 28 year old Joe mixin he got 52 targets that year and 245 carries in 14 games um and I kind of think we're we're that's what we're headed for and one of the things on mixin is his peripherals were never great a lot like Montgomery's Montgomery's are good but not great he came to Houston he ran for over a thousand yards 12 total TVs in 14 games because the average just over 20 touches per game they made him an absolute workhorse immediately I don't the this is a dead zone back question we talked on the last pod about multiple different dead zone backs we talked about a guy like Buck yearving where he's younger and we like the talent but we were concerned about the valuable touches we talked about a guy like Chubahubber where he lost some of the work last year he's got a young productive running back behind him where you can't even really feel great about the projection you might get taken or overtaken throughout the season we talked about some of the team level concerns about like how they score their touchdowns for some of these teams even like a Travis ETN who goes a little bit higher do the same score enough touchdown some of those concerns there and and so there's different things that can happen with dead zone backs that are not probably like elite running back sometimes you just don't trust a projection overall sometimes you trust the talent behind them to potentially be better sometimes like a day for Montgomery situation you're like he's a 29 year old back I don't love the player all that much he's not going to have a big season the floor for an aging workhorse is always low, but the culture and team fit stuff is so perfect here. Their defense is incredible. They want to run the ball in my opinion. I think we agree on that. Even though you guys have a little bit of a higher pass rate. And I think the workhorse stuff with Mixin is just and then I'm very down on what he marks as a rusher. I think he was not just replacement level. I think he's a non NFL prospect as a rusher going into last year. And I think he supported that his you. I mean, I'm not trying to be mean to the guy, but like 3.6 yards per carry. The evasion yards after contact breakaway. It's all very poor in college as well as last year as a rookie. And then I mean, Joard Jordan was actually taking a little bit of rushing late in the year. And I actually have him for a little bit more rushing than you guys. I have what he playing a passing down role. And I think he's going to be the secondary back for sure. But I think that's it. I think he's going to spell Montgomery. I don't think they're ever going to be like we want to give him the work. And then Montgomery's always been a really good goal line guy. And I just I mean, mixing got a ton of work in close to years ago. Scored a bunch of touchdowns. I don't like taking dead zone backs. This is a situation where all the stuff like they're I think they're going to lead late in games and low scoring games and they're going to they're going to keep running in low scoring games. This all the stuff points to like, I don't want to take him, but I have to be open to, you know, there's certain dead zone backs that I'm more open to it. I have to be open to the idea that he's going to just get so much work. Even though like I haven't you guys haven't projected right around 4.3 yards per carry. I have him at 4.2. Like I don't think he's going to be a highly efficient player as Jack was talking about is going from a good rushing attack and Detroit over to Houston. I just think that Demiko Ryan's is basically one of these two out like mid 2000's coach who's going to give us running back 300 touches like he like and Montgomery may get hurt, but I project thinking, you know, more about like health. And that's one of the probably big discrepancies in the workload here too is you guys are are baking in injury stuff with players and with a guy like Montgomery, you should be baking it in a lot. I'm baking it and I'm projecting. If he's healthy, more like the week one thing that Jack was talking about. The parallel there between Dave Montgomery that you mentioned and Joe Mix and kind of when they're acquired, you know, age wise and obviously Mixen was in more of a featured role with the bangles before he was acquired, but you know, you kind of talking through that. Yeah, that parallel and the comparison between the two and and what the Texans are are looking for because even if they had some some heads up last year on the Mixen, you know, foot injury and where that would lead for the rest of the season, it clearly seems like a spot they wanted to address in the off season. So yeah, if the amount was was just the rest, you know, right into the immediate workhorse role, I don't think that would be that surprising. So maybe a spot that we should probably come maybe come down more on what he marks rushing output necessarily than then bumped demons, but yeah, I think, you know, certainly a big role in coming for for Montgomery. If he can maintain that health at least in the running game. All right, let's have to tight ends. Yeah, go ahead. Yeah, sorry. I, yeah, I thought you were going to head to the to the next squad, but I was going to say we didn't we didn't necessarily talk shults yet, but we are we're trying to do a quicker show this time and we are 30 minutes in on the Texas. Don't shults, baby. What is dead may never die have in the notes here. Don't shults is a guy that I feel like we in the fantasy community are kind of writing off every, you know, coming into every season. Is this team really going to give Dalton shults another 85 targets last year? He set a career high though with 106 targets and 82 receptions, but that 82 receptions only turned into the tight end 17 and points per game because the only scored three touchdowns. He also had the lowest eight out of his career last year at 6.2 yards. So it was more of a of a safety blanket for CJ Stroud than then necessarily I think like a premier target in the passing game necessarily there. And then, you know, since joining the Texans, Dalton shults has a 3.6% TD rate for a tight end, which is extremely low, you know, most tight ends live in the in the five to six percent range and kind of the elite ones are up closer to seven, eight percent. So shults, you know, more of a volume may have been, but we've kind of hit on that they added a lot of tight end competition. Cade Stover is healthy coming into this season. They draft more on climb, bring in foster more again. So this this this, this tight end room is a bit deeper, but I think Dalton shults, you know, just continues to show himself as a as a productive NFL tight ends and fits a role in this offense. So Jack curious your thoughts on shults fancy Alec this season. And if if these tight end room threats are are big enough, you know, detractor to make him more on the undraftable range. Yeah. So we are only at we're at 70.7 targets on shults and we come in slightly ahead of ADP on both underdog and draft Kings. And he said 85 or more targets in six straight years, which is honestly one of the more insane stats. I think you'll find if you're doing projections, he's not particularly efficient with his targets. He doesn't scroll a lot of touchdowns, but every single year he keeps getting these targets. And so yeah, we're well below that 85 mark. We're 15 targets below that. We're still a spotter to ahead of ADP kind of across the board. So I don't think there's a whole lot to say on shults beyond the fact that he just somehow keeps keeps getting volume. I had the same notes as dank. So I won't repeat them all, but that is role last year with the low a dot was the beneficiary of like check down stuff. My note was that a 2025 production was fragile. It's not the type of thing that the offense is trying to do or that they would build on, but then also what Jack said, I have him at eight. I don't think you mentioned I have a mid 86 targets, which is still down. Thank you said he caught like 80 balls last year. Like I don't think we realized. Yeah, 82. So it's how far do you want to regress in we had one of the tight ends yesterday we were talking about it. I think you want Johnson. It's like how far you were aggressing last year's numbers. You guys have them all the way down to 71 targets. I have them at 86. And my note is it was fragile production last year. I'm bringing it way down. So but I come in as the hot guy. I mean, we agree that he's probably a small win in the in the late round and in best ball and stuff. Somebody can definitely tack on because like Jack was saying, you guys still come in a little bit above 80 P, but not an exciting tight end by 80. Absolutely. All right. Let's let's move on here to the Colts coming off a very interesting year last year where you know, Dana, Jones announced the starting quarterback. They come out of the gates. Absolutely scorching hot as as one of the top offenses in the league. And then you know, it kind of goes south a little bit culminating with Dana Jones tearing his Achilles and then the Colts bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement to try and save their season. They ultimately end up losing their final. I believe six games to miss the playoffs there did the Colts. So kind of a, you know, lackluster finish to a very, very exciting start for the Colts last season. But let's get into this season. Shane Sikin remains their head coach and play collar here in terms of team level projections. We at ETR at 60.9 plays, Gretches at 61.7 ETR at 59.6% pass rate, Gretch at 59%. So pretty similar, you know, across the board here on the Colts. Shane Sikin, you know, it's interesting because he started with the Colts as such a high paced, you know, play collar in their first season with the Colts. He was, or they were fifth in pace, under Sikin ninth in a second season and then 27th last year in neutral pace. I thought was, was pretty interesting. So Gretch curious to thoughts on how Sikin approaches this upcoming season with, with Dana Jones, you know, coming off in Achilles back at the helm and then kind of like the reduced pace we saw, which, which didn't really change much between Jones and Rivers, I will say, it was pretty consistent throughout the season. So curious how you're projecting it to go in this 2026 outlook. There's a, there was a lot on them. The narratives that I saw was like they played a really easy schedule early. They're going to play a tough late schedule and then it really, it really did fall off. But I think that's like a way to convenient description of their season last year. They, this team led the NFL in offensive yards through any teams first 10 games going into their buy, but, you know, setting by, by the side by saying first 10 games for every team. You don't just do that through schedule and, and they actually played the Broncos in week two. The Broncos went on to be one of the very top teams in the league in yards allowed. And they had the best, they were the only team to go over 400 total yards against the Broncos in regulation. The commanders ended up going over it in an overtime game where the commanders had a 65 yard overtime drive that put them over. And they were at like 475. They were the only team that went over like so the cult, the one really like elite defense they played in that early part. They were very dominant against or very productive. I do think one of the things with the play volume, I mean, the, the pace thing is really interesting. But I do think their play volume was hurt by their own efficiency. We talk, it was mainly on the side by this a ton over the years. This JT had a bunch of long TDs early. Daniel Jones passed efficiency. Absolutely spiked as we get into that stuff. If you're regressing that stuff out because you are in a projection to a certain degree, especially the Jones passing efficiency, I think really hard to imagine. It can be as good as he was because as we'll get into his numbers were fantastic last year. And I think people are like, Dylan Jones was a little better. I mean, his yards per attempt was over eight and he had never been over seven in a season. We're talking about a full yard plus comp, completion percentage at a career high. Past TD was at a rate was at a six year high. And now you're talking about can he push the ball down the field coming, you know, off in Achilles. He's got that right Achilles issue. I'm really pretty concerned about the fact that it is the push off leg. We saw like cousin struggle pushing the ball down the field coming off of that air and Rogers has been knocked for not pushing the ball down the field coming off in Achilles. I do think that's a real thing. But again, if you regress out the efficiency on some of this stuff, I do think you're probably expecting them to just run more plates as they're driving. take longer. You're not getting as many long touchdowns. You're probably not projecting Jonathan Taylor for 5.7 yards per carry, which is where he was at when Daniel Jones got hurt. I mean, this guy was everyone was saying he's the this year's sake one from the year prior. So there was all these things that I think were a lot better about the cults than I think people remember because of those final six or seven games coming out. And then one of the things I always hear as well about this was like they were already starting to fall off after they came out of the buy. They got two games with Daniel Jones out of the buy. They lost to the chiefs in overtime and they lost by four to a Texans team that has one of the best defenses in the league. They were the first two games that the cults offense didn't hit 300 total yards. They had hit 300 total yards at each of their first 10 games, but they missed it by against Texans by like 20 yards. And you have games like that. They came out against the jigs. They had a 60 something yard touchdown drive in the first quarter and then Jones blows his Achilles in like in the first quarter of that game. I don't think you can be like, Oh, they were definitely due to regress. They had a 10 game stretch, but this was the best offense in football. I think that's really interesting. Yeah, the the day and her Jones outlook is certainly interesting in fantasy this year as well, just because he's going QB 25 right now on underdog before his injury. He was at the QB 12 in points per game. And that was without rushing very much last year. He had a career low in rush yards per game, 12.6 rush yards per game. And in New York, he had average 31 rushing yards per game. So almost like cut and third there was his rushing output. He was still scrambling a little bit, but did not have the design runs understake and got to assume those those are not going to return this year coming off the Achilles. So you are kind of relying on it on a pocket pass air with with times and a bit of a scrambler. But you know, the the the efficiency outlook. I don't I don't know. Yeah, go ahead, Gretchen. Well, I was going to say the same thing, but the rushing the way I'm looking at it is if you want to be optimistic about him coming back from the Achilles, we saw this off. We saw the best version of Daniel Jones. As you said, in a situation where he wasn't running nearly as much already, that's pretty optimistic, right? This would be the situation you'd hope for. Projection wise. So you mentioned that he was over eight yards per attempt last year, 8.1. And then, you know, he had never been above the low sevens in his career. We we have kind of regressed it back to his career average. We're at 7.3 yards per attempt. Gretchen's at 7.6. We are a little bit lower in the rushing output, but neither of us are very high. We have we have Daniel Jones projected for 179 rushing yards. Gretchen more like 226, but pretty similar rush T.D.s there and an overall fantasy output. Gretchen a little bit higher in the passing department, just with that higher yards per attempt. Also has a bit higher completion percentage there 65.9 percent for Gretchen. We're at 63.4 percent. And that was also another another department where where Daniel Jones jumped up quite a bit last year at 68 percent completion rate. So curious, Jack, your thoughts after kind of seeing this this comparison. If we should adjust anything here on Dimes, maybe completion rate or thoughts on kind of his outlier efficient season and how he's going to I was going to perform this year coming off the Achilles. Yeah, well, I wanted to talk about the pass rate even though we are almost in agreement. We're at 59.6 and Gretchen's at 59 percent. But their pass rate over expectations and the five games leading up to Daniel Jones's injury, there were plus 11 plus 13 plus 9 minus 7 and plus 15 on the whole day at a 60.2 percent pass rate. In Daniel Jones starts, despite being 8 and 3 in those games. I was looking at that yesterday, just prepping for this pod and wondering if we could be too low. And I'm not really surprised that we're both in this like 59 to 60 percent range because philosophically, it doesn't really feel very good being all that high on this cold steam with Jonathan Taylor running back with a quarterback coming back from an Achilles injury under center. But if you look at the numbers last year, once Stike can develop some trust, I assume in Daniel Jones ability to lead a hyper efficient offense like Gretchen was saying, they did become pretty pass heavy. So I wasn't sure if maybe we could be even low pass rate. But I mean, the two years before 2025, with vastly different quarterback situations, they didn't, then he retreats and start 11 game in 2024 and they were below 56 percent year before they were a little below 59 percent. So I was a little bit uncertain on this pass rate, despite the fact that Gretchen I, Gretchen also basically in agreement. I had the same, I noticed the same thing in terms of how pass heavy they had gotten right before Jones got hurt. The main reason I had this a little bit on the lower side is just that he's returning from an injury. Right. But that's, I mean, like I don't know how, again, I'm concerned about him pushing off and like how healthy he's going to be able to throw. It is a right Achilles. Like that's your drive leg as a right handed throwing quarterback. So that would be my answer to that. But like I'm, I was right there with you. I was like, that's really bullish. They were starting to throw a ton. Yeah. And just anecdotally, the Colts did jump out to a bunch of early leads like in those in those games, I think. And so the, you know, the expected pass rate in those situations is going to be lower. So the fact that Shane Stuykin was still tiling up the past plays in the first half, I think is probably why the like the PR re numbers look so positive. And then I know to just like dating back to that our NFL props stuff, we had a, we were showing a lot of of pass attempts over on Daniel Jones because of those pass rate over expectation numbers. And like he would, you know, it'd be like 29 and a half. He'd have like 26 at half time. And then, you know, only throw like five times in the second half. It was, it was insane. Like there, we had some insane sweats where through through two quarters, it looks like, oh man, he's going to like double, double this line. And then they'd absolutely park it in the second half. So I think the game script element there of just how successful they were early on in the season kind of can skew those, you know, pass rate of expectation metrics, so a little bit. But, you know, Stuykin, I do think is in the ball, no, or sense of like, let's, let's pass to get the lead and then run to win the game kind of thing, especially with, with how dynamic Jonathan Taylor is closing out games there. And to that point, that's a big reason why I want to be optimistic on the offense. And I'm emphasizing the offense. So like Shane Stuykin is probably one of the better coaches in the league. I think he doesn't get enough credit for that. Struggled with Anthony Richardson, I would put more of that on Anthony Richardson, gets Daniel Jones and makes Daniel Jones look like one of the better, like way better than he ever was with the Giants. So like, I defended Brian Dable at times because he got some decent efficiency out of Daniel Jones early in his career. And now I'm like, maybe Brian Dable's just a bad coach. Well, we'll get to him in a minute. He's a new coordinator for the Titans. But like, you get this much more out of Daniel Jones as soon as you get him under your wing, Shane Stuykin, I think that speaks really favorably about about Stuykin. I'm really interested with you guys about the receivers here, how you guys are doing their receivers because only six guys in the offense had a hundred routes last year. So that's another big thing that he did was he concentrated things. They used to rotate the Titans a lot with the Colts all these years. They didn't now that they have Tyler Warren. The, the sixth, the guy was Moelle Cox. He only had 117 routes. So you can say, it's five guys who had more than 120 by PFF's numbers, which is again, we talked about this on some other teams with the concentration. It's the three key receivers. So running back and it's the main tight end. It's the 11 personnel grouping. And then one of those guys, the guy who ran the most routes is no longer on the team, Michael Pittman, right? And so I think there's a real, real opportunity in fantasy to getting this past game right. If they're concentrated again with the vacated role. And then these players probably being really concentrated on Taylor. I want to know this 412 routes this year. First season over 300 third most among all running backs last year. He set career highs and targets receptions and receiving yards, even though he wasn't really great on a per route basis. I wondered if that was a little bit. I couldn't really remember if that was a little bit because Phil Rivers was there. Layton's just checking down. He's always been a guy of food. He was running backs back in his prime as a quarterback. It was not Taylor had more receptions per game with the anal Jones than he did after Daniel Jones was injured. So I have to and then last year, I'm here. Abdullah was there are be two and targets was 17, not like some big role, but Abdullah's always been a pass down back wherever he's played. He's not with the team anymore. This year, the backups are young guys. They don't really have a clear Abdullah. I really like the receiving role for Jonathan Taylor to stick again to this concentration point. This is one of the things I'm most optimistic about when I went through the projections was was getting into Taylor being a three down guy and getting a lot of receiving again. Last year, that was a big boost to his profile. And I think they're going to trust him as the as the protection guy in in in downs again. Well, that's probably a spot that that were low. I think on JT, we're only at 41 targets. Grechri at 58 and I I kind of had the same epiphany. You just one looking back at last season. And it was really a consistent output from Jonathan Taylor. He had at least two receptions and every every single game except for one last year, which is, which is, you know, a big departure from what we had seen from JT, which is the game. Jones got hurt in and Riley Leonard took over and you're trying to run an offense with Riley Leonard for three corners. That's the only game you didn't have multiple catches and that on top of just his outrageous, you know, rushing workload is it's pretty wild. We have JT for 275 rush attempts, which is, you know, the highest projection we have in the NFL still a little bit below Grechri at 290 one there and and just again, looking back at this Colts touch distribution. Jonathan Taylor going into weight week 18, which, you know, the Colts ended up like a running running DJ getting out there at the end. Jonathan Taylor at 88.5% of the of the running back rush attempts going into week 18. So, you know, essentially 90% there for JT is just getting all the touches. And I don't think there's too much necessarily to discuss there other than like, You know, can you keep this up? He's had 300 plus carries and back to back seasons. 190 touches over the last two and then extremely efficient as well. Gretz, you're at 4.9 yards per carry. We're at 4.5 right now and I know that was something Jack was looking at yesterday too and it may be even bumped up JT's yards per carry. So Jack, just curious your thoughts on kind of that. Gretz per carry metric for someone getting this massive workload and then any other thoughts on if there will be increased competition in the backfield this year. Yeah, so we, I did bump it yesterday from 4.4 which is where our allego is up to 4.5. Our allego just kind of regresses pretty hard I think on this stuff because yards per carry such a volatile stat year to year. But JT at this point has proven to be such an outlier that I thought I made sense to bump and I mean we're at 4.5 if you look at his true numbers we could still even be low there. On this backfield I do want to bring up that given JT's pretty insane workload, this is a pretty important RB2 battle to watch. It looks like it's going to go into training camp with Gens and McGowan. We have Gens slightly ahead right now. I don't know if they're done adding. I don't know if this could be a situation where someone else gets cut from another team and they bring in like a James Conner through trade events and type because neither Gens nor stuff McGowan have shown anything at the NFL level. Gens was a healthy scratch for most of his rookie year. McGowan with the day three pick. I was reading Dane Brugler's The Beast on McGowan yesterday while prepping for this as well. The con section on his profile was pretty brutal. It turns out like everything you want from an NFL running back he doesn't have. Lack's explosiveness, fumble issues, drop issues, not much of a receiver. Played for five college teams in six years and he's 24. So I would probably bet on Gens winning of the two backups that they have right now. But we'll see if they had someone. He is a little bit bigger and he tested okay at the combine. But yeah, he has a really long college story. He started at Oklahoma. I think he was like a decent prospect out of college. He actually got some real work at Oklahoma as a true freshman. But they got dismissed and had to play at like other schools and then he winds his way back to like New Mexico state four years later than Kentucky. The one thing I noticed in looking through it, which is going to be a little bit more numbers based than what then some of the things you just said is that if you look at his evasions and his evasion numbers, his yards after contact per attempt, some of that stuff. It really fell off in the SEC last year. So there's also this thing where like he actually looked somewhat intriguing like in a small sample in Oklahoma in 2020. And then the more recent stuff after this long journey, he doesn't look as intriguing at all. Like it's the lot of the numbers are not as good. And so yeah, I'm with you. I think like Gidens had the more straightforward. He actually had a really fun collegiate profile. Although it's just tough because it's like they didn't use him a lot last year. And so it seems like maybe my gallon as the new guy has a chance. But yeah, I'm with you. We actually have really similar splits, which is like very close, but giving Gidens a little bit more of their receiving really close on the rushing, giving Gidens a little more of their receiving. But I'm with you like I when I wrote it up, I was thinking whoever wins this could be pretty important. They both have like somewhat intriguing like McGowan. Like you said, there's a lot of concern with the age and stuff. But if he's the clear number two here, I would want to draft him probably in late rounds. I do think I'd give the edge to Gidens at this point. Gretchen, you mentioned like in his prospect, Pofra, I believe, Pack Rane of legendary upside was also pretty intrigued by Gidens coming in to last season. He was also a fifth round pick last year and a much stronger running back draft. Whereas McGowan was a seventh round pick this year and much weaker class. And then just again, Gidens going into a second year. You mentioned how they used Amira Bula and in those kind of veteran past blocking snaps last year. Like I think Gidens going to have a massive leg up in terms of just, you know, past protections and understanding that going into a second season. So I was kind of taking some shots on Gidens late in drafts. Just, you know, he was a complete zero last year. But I do think he is he's he's probably the favorite for the RB2 role right now. Especially just like in complement of Jonathan Taylor. If JT were to go down, you know, it's probably a spot where they'd end up splitting the work a little bit more. I wouldn't necessarily assume like Gidens takes, you know, 90% of the running back touches and in that scenario. But certainly in the last rounds of bestball, I've been I've been taking some Gidens. I couldn't piece that together. I really liked that point about Gidens re the Amira Bula thing and past protections. And we talked about how like, you know, defensive fronts are tougher. And maybe in year two, everything you just said, Jack, about what Dane said about McGowan, suggested he's not going to be ready and is rookie year to handle that stuff. All right, let's head to the wide receiver room here. I completely agree with you, Gretchen, on this like potentially the consolidation of targets here. I think it's really exciting from a fantasy perspective because you have Alec Pearson and Josh Downes, you know, pretty cemented as as two wide receivers we like. But Downs has been restricted to the slot throughout his career. 81% of his past maps have come from the slot. And then, you know, when when we're talking about the second wide receiver or outside wide receiver battle here, it's mostly between Ash and Duel and Nick Westbrook, Akine, who are kind of surprisingly similar in terms of their entering their seven season. They're both age 29. Nick Westbrook, Akine has had more involvement in his NFL career. He has 139 career receptions, whereas Ash and Duel and only has 40. Duel and as technically the incumbent here, he's been with the Colts his whole career. And they signed Westbrook, Akine and the off season. But in terms of like target competition, they are extremely weak. Duel in a 15% career target per out run. Nick Westbrook, Akine even worse at 12%. So if you get these guys out there and even in three wide receiver sets and then you have, you know, Alec Pierce, Josh Downes and Intoler Warnas as the other three receivers, I think that the targets could get extremely consolidated here. And I do want to start honestly with Alec Pierce just because this is a very interesting, I think, efficiency question that we have we have struggled with all off season. You know, Alec Pierce coming in off back to back seasons of leading the NFL in yards per reception at 22.3 and 21.3. Last year that came on 84 targets as well. And he's been at 11.9 yards per target the last two seasons, which is just exceptional. And then he signs this big contract in the off season. Should theoretically be in a higher volume role. But then it's like, okay, if he's in a higher volume role, where does the efficiency land on this guy who's been such a lid lifter previously and funny enough, we come in pretty much the exact same on on yards per target for Alec Pierce. We're at 9.7, Gretches at 9.6. Gretches target volume is quite a bit higher though at 108. We're at 85. Which I'm surprised by because we were talking a little bit before there's I was curious where you guys were going to come in on Pierce. I feel like Pierce is one of the, I think he's a fine playing basketball. I think he's one of the hardest plays in redraft this year. I'm a pretty firm stance that this is a guy you want to be fading. And so the fact that you guys are coming and significantly lower than me on targets is really interesting. I want to hear your take on that first. Well, we were well higher and honestly, like around and a half above the basketball market and then, you know, with with more information coming out about about his ankle surgery and kind of like the four to six month timeline and like training camp is still in doubt. We're like, oh man, it doesn't feel great to be to be this hot on a guy that might not be healthy in training camp. So we did dial it back a little bit, but we also have a lot of unlisted wide receiver target share here close to close to like 10% for the cold. So we're still kind of like just playing things conservatively. But Jack, yeah, any more insight on on the Pierce projection because it is it is certainly a tough one, I think, especially with the ankle surgery being a being a pretty big factor. Yeah. So we previously like Mark said had no doc on Alec Pierce for the ankle stuff because the initial reporting suggested it was going to be like a three month recovery timeline. He got the surgery in March. So we weren't really worried at all if the three month thing was to be healthy right about now. But the more recent stuff suggests closer to four to six months, which I mean week one from when he got the surgery was only around five and a half months. And so we baked in the ankle stuff pretty hard. And we're now a spot below ADP on underdog the market really didn't respond. I don't know if they just had a better read on that whole situation than us or or what the disconnect is there. But we were well ahead, reacted hard. Now we're slightly below the market was low fairly reacted to the ankle stuff and is now ahead of us. But we have Alec Pierce's the most official wide receiver on a perturget basis in the league, which doesn't sound great just because we know that that status so prone to regression. But someone has to be the most official wide receiver in the league. And we have it as the guy who has averaged 11.9 yards per target two years in a row. The big thing with Pierce is that the volume with Daniel Jones last year was actually pretty solid. He was at a 17% target share with 0.2 targets per hour run with Daniel Jones healthy last year. Obviously that fell off with Philip Rivers and his noodle alarm coming in. But a 17% target share isn't monstrous. But when your average target is coming 18.9 yards down the field, that's a really valuable workload. And they gave them four years, $114 million. They let Michael Pittman walk. We have his yards per target regress 2.2 yards down from where it's been in each of the last two years. So I think we're doing an okay job of projecting where the efficiency should be and we're basically in line with Gretch on the efficiency. So I would honestly like Pierce if the ankle stuff didn't exist. But with the timeline with week one being in the 46 month timeline, that is a little bit scary to me. The other thing is there's been some recent whispers about the cold-telling interest in Keenan Allen. He was very inefficient per target but still averaged 0.27 targets per hour run. So we're talking about a concentrated target distribution right now. Kenan Allen would throw a huge wrench into that. But if Pierce was healthy and if they don't sign Kenan Allen, which is too big ifs, I would really like Pierce at his ADP. But as things stand now, there is more uncertainty than we thought even a month ago. So I would say if you was healthy, the caveats Jack just said, I still would not like him at his ADP. So by PFF's numbers, his ADOTs have been over 20, both of the last two years. His yards per out run, the first two years were not that great. At more pedestrian ADOTs. And then the last two years, they've really exploded. They have, as Jack talked about, they've exploded more because I like to break up yards per out run between yards per target, targets per out run. More because of the yards per target side has been super efficient. He's this really, really good deep ball player down the field. And that's in elites like trade in the modern NFL. I think part of why the market is so high on him, as you were talking about, is they paid him a ton of money and they let Pittman leave. And I think people are just like, he's going to get more targets. I don't think people realize Alec Pierce had, what is it, 47 catches last year? I mean, this is not, he, even with all of this efficiency, he got to a thousand and three yards last year. Barely hit the quadruple digit number. Now he's the high paid focal point that's been really efficient the last two years. That's what defenses are trying to take away. Is the vertical efficiency? You guys talked about the efficiency being really tough. One of the biggest things as deep ball efficiency is not very sticky year over year. And it influences these big expulsive plays influence yard per target in yards per carry so much. That's why we were grass those numbers because they aren't sticky. One of the reasons I'm so a hot on Jonathan Taylor's efficiency is I just think he's probably one of the best big play running backs in the league. It's hard to be like he's not going to do that. And again, with the Jones at QB, he was like 5.7 yards per carry. He was doing it a lot when they had a competent passing game. He had like a 3.2 yards per carry. Once the passing game got to fill a rivers level and you had no threat to throw the ball. Pierce I do think is still going to make big plays when they talk about on this offseason. They emphasize the explosive plays and the downfield ability and winning contested catches, which is all very important. But I think for him to be a really meaningful pick and fantasy outside of maybe best ball with a spike week stuff matters. You need his A dot to come down and get more in the intermediate range. As far as those really high A dots to put them in context, I went back. One of my spreadsheets goes back to 2014. Those were the only two seasons I have among any player in the NFL. His last two years with eight dots over 20 at a volume of even 50 plus targets. Pierce had 83 last year and 66 in 2024. It's hard to get real volume and keep an A dot that high, which is not also like Jack talked about it as how that's a positive thing. It's not also a bad thing. But even if you expand that cut off down to like 17 or higher by pffs numbers. Pierce is a thousand and three yards last year the second most behind only a Sammy walk in season that had a thousand and 47. It's really hard to have an 1112 on a 13 hundred yard season. If you're not getting shortened intermediate targets at all. And then the question is does Pierce have that in a skill set. And I don't know that we should assume that he does just because he got paid. I think the Colts paid for something that's better in real life football as we often talk about with these deep guys. Then in fantasy football, even if they only paid for him to stay in the same role. I think they did it right because that's the thing that the tie their whole scheme together. They have guys that can do the underneath stuff. What Pierce is able to do and be efficient on deep vertical stuff is one of the most important skill sets in the London NFL. It's why I think Christian Watson got paid this year. It's why I think carnal tape went on the top five this year. These these skill set drives offensive schemes. And my big question for Pierce if you do think he's going to get a bunch more targets without Michael Pittman there is. Then who's going to run the deep routes if he starts running a bunch of intermediate routes. Do you think Ash and Dylan's going to do that they drafted that D. on Perks guy who's really fast. He was like three picks away from Mr. irrelevant. He's one of the very last picks of the entire draft. It would make no sense to turn Alex Pearson to something else when that's that's why you paid it because he's elite at that. That exact skill. It's very valuable to everything else that they're trying to build in a scheme to be able to stretch these safeties and what the defenses are trying to stop. Is these big plays. But to his efficiency, which I'm also still projecting really high as you said. The deep efficiency is really hard year over year. He's not going to creep up on any defenses now, especially with Pittman not in the offense. He's going to get more double coverage. They just paid him a huge contract and he's been super efficient on deep plays now two years in a row. This is why it's hard to sustain over multiple years. You get a reputation. Defenses game plan for you. And three is Dangle Jones has a right Achilles injury. Is he going to be able to drive the ball down the field like Cousins has had issues with an air and Roger's has had issues with. I have real, real concerns about the stuff that Pierce has actually done to win. Being sustainable. I think you need to do a whole bunch of other things that I don't know that he can necessarily do. And then on top of that, as Jack said, you have the rehab of the ankle injury. I'm adding the ankle injury on top of all of these other concerns. Yeah, I think the volume with Dangle Jones last year was a little bit underrated. He part of this was that the cult were in three in Dangle Jones game. So Josh Downs wasn't on the field as much because he was purely a slot receiver at least as of last year. But Alec Pierce had a higher target share than Josh Downs with Dangle Jones last year. He averaged more targets per game. The route discrepancy is really driving that Downs was far more efficient at earning targets on a per route basis. But Pierce was just out there so much more than Downs that I think that people probably don't realize that he had a 17% target share with Dangle Jones last year when we were projecting stuff on a weekly basis. It felt a little bit uncomfortable projecting Alec Pierce for the targets we were projecting him for. Because he hadn't really done it in his NFL career before that I think in 2023 he was at like an 11% target share. 2024 I think 14% then last year with Dangle Jones 17%. And then he was just completely completely dead once Philip Rivers was under pressure because I love this point. That's probably what I'm missing was he in terms of like because I was maybe looking at the full season numbers too much when I say that he only had a thousand in three yards. Was he productive enough to justify the 80 P because part of what I'm seeing is like his 80 P's pretty high now for a guy that was like a thousand like right at a thousand yards and didn't catch 50 balls, especially start talking about PPR leagues. I feel like I don't want to pay that I don't feel like there's like a real ceiling to this profile, but was he much more productive than the cost. So with Daniel Jones last year he was on he only was on pace for 55 catches but 11 50 yard pace. And his targets per route run with Jones last year was 0.2 with Philip Rivers which was only 97 plays. It was 0.1 1 which I think kind of aligns with what I mean when you if you watch the first quarter of Philip Rivers first game you could have it was very obvious that Alec Pierce was just not at all a match for for what they're going to do. Yeah, so there were monster splits with and without Jones last year, but I think the point you have about potentially Jones being able to not drive the ball down the field would be something that maybe we haven't considered as much an ifty Achilles does impact his ability to push the ball down field that would be pretty catastrophic for Pierce. I think the big question here is just does does Alec Pierce, Routerie and profile change at all it sounds like Gretches is not a believer that it will again just kind of he got that contract to bring the value that he has been bringing as as probably you know one of the best deep threats in the league at this point in time I think the market is probably assuming that just since he got 114 million 84 million guaranteed that that's probably because the Colts want to make him a more featured target and you know it's just hard to know if that's going to be the case and I really think this is one of the most like unique and unique. And I think that's the most like unique interesting profiles to discuss this awesome and because not only is he going pretty high and fancy drafts Nate Tyson and Greg Rosenthal drafted like the top 32 water seevers they want this upcoming season and they had Alec Pierce at 29 and they're kind of arguing like over who would be able to draft them at that point they both love him so like you know ball knows like Tyson and Rosenthal are in on this guy and I think Greg Rosenthal is like you know however, however good you think Alec Pierce is like he's better than that kind of thing so man if it would be a lot of a lot of the time that he's going to be able to do that. And if it if it weren't for the ankle surgery, I think I would be way more in on Alec Pierce just with the kind of the runway of of targets clearing out and just the hope that the contract would lead some more intermediate targets on top of the deep field treaching stuff but it is a it is a pretty convoluted profile. So guys I think are again looking at it from a real NFL perspective of he opens he unlocks everything you can find guys like Josh Downs in a lot of offenses you can't find guys this is what defenses want to take away they want to roll safety's over the top they want to take so as far as the intermediate stuff again the question becomes if he's getting more than who's running the deep stuff that opens up that space I don't know I mean I do think Pierce is eight I'm going to come down by Pittman's vacated role 8.48 out last year 9.1 yard three year average. Pierce is over 20 or up around 20 on your guys as numbers to me it's it's a. I don't I don't know how the scheme even works if you're deciding that Al Pierce is now Michael Pittman that's that's not what like that's not what you paying for us not how real football works and I don't think that's what Nate Tyson or Greg Rosenthal are saying I think they're saying he's great at what he does. And that's where the key in Allen and his 0.27 targets per hour on last year that's where that kind of gets scary because it would make sense for them to sign a player like that and keep Pierce in the same role even if they want to get a couple more targets per game. With the money they just paid him it still does make sense for them to sign someone to be like the underneath target hog like Pittman was. Yeah, all right. I think we just did 10 minutes on on Alec Pierce, which is just He's one of the most I've been writing this stuff up and I wrote way more words on him than anyone else. He's one of the most interesting players this year for sure. It's just it's just wow shout out shout out to us for that. But we do have to move along here too. Let's talk through Josh Downs and Tyler Warren here. You know, Josh Downs, I feel like it's just constant buzz on is he going to play in two wider sewers sets again? I don't I don't think it's necessarily like the huge determining factor for him. Obviously, we want him on the field as much as possible. But if that third wider seer is Ashen Dullin or Nick Westberg or Keena, the target per out run for Josh Downs could be could be pretty elite this season. And then with Tyler Warren, he he did have some pretty demonstrative splits with Daniel Jones and with Philip Rivers last year as well. Once once Daniel Jones went down Tyler Warren only caught 16 of 28 targets 57% catch right there for 118 yard zero touchdowns on those in the first 12 games. He caught 74% of his targets for 684 yards and four touchdowns. So I'm not sure if that was you know, defensively scheming up to take away more Tyler Warren if they kind of caught the league by surprise a little bit with how they deployed him early on or just you know kind of kind of aligned with the the whole collapse of the Colts offense in general. But I do think Josh Downs and Tyler Warren assuming, you know, Keen Allen or another free agent wider seer is in sign have have a very clear runway here for volume. So Gretchen it's also your way on on these two downs and and Warren and for for projection clarification here we are at 101 targets on Josh Downs Gretches at 127 on Tyler Warren we're at 106 Gretches at 119. So you know pretty similar gap there again Gretchen typically runs a little bit hotter there. He's you know kind of hotter across the board here for the Colts so Gretchen thoughts on on Josh Downs and Tyler Warren's outlook the subcompancy. Yeah I mean everything I said about Pierce you can probably assume that these are two guys and I'm going to be really overweight on I really really like both of what's in front of these guys if they sign Keen and Allen I'm going to cry in the shower because that's going to be really bad for Josh Downs and Tyler Warren but right now I'm going to talk about right now Josh Downs had a hamstring thing last year and his ball and hand stuff cratered but his per out after the target stuff was all way better in 2024. I see him as a small win at cost even if he doesn't get the two wide receiver sets opportunity. I think he's way too cheap right now. His A dot literally is identical to Pitman's last year at that 8.4 number it overlaps with the way that I think about receiving concepts is all about depth of target and spacing the field. It's they don't play the same role but he's going to run routes into the the depths that are vacated by the Pierce routes. It's exactly what Pitman ran a lot of last year. I know that he runs a lot of he does a lot of like man beating stuff. I know there's a lot of like split stuff in this offense. There's a lot of split stuff with Warren as well. I kind of want to zoom out and just be like long view on these guys. Downs had a really good prospect profile had a really great 2024 27.9% targets per out run that year on limited route volume last year. Felt the 22.2%. But again, had a little hamstring thing in the preseason really high on downs where I think even without the two wide receiver sets he's got to be a big volume earner and then if he does get those two wide receiver sets which we're talking about Ashen Dool and Nick Westbrook and Kenny and those things. I think Shane Stakeens is some smart coach. I've been wrong on the two wide receiver sets stuff before but Michael Pitman leaving is a clear thing and there may be a market edge here where people are like this slot guy cannot play in two wide receiver sets and this is the spot where it actually hits because Michael Pitman leaving is a spot where Josh Downs could start to get like almond Ross State Brown is a slot guy who plays in two receivers sets. There are guys that do what that are smaller dudes. It's not impossible. This may be the spot where it actually hits. So I'm really into downs and then on Warren you said it great production early when the offense was at its best intent from Shane Stakeens to feature him early when he had Daniel Jones and everything going right and then it didn't work out late and people are like fate like they're like I think the gap between Loveland and him is weird. I do I would have Loveland higher but this guy was third tight end in targets last year as a rookie tied for six and receptions fifth in yardage. You're talking about a rookie tight end with first round draft capital we wasn't long ago we talked about rookie tight ends as not being able to produce in year one. This guy had top six across the board volume and production other than touchdowns and then I want to zoom out and say he's had a good profile and he's a he's a rookie tight end excuse me he's a he's a first round pick as a rookie tight end last year then I just want to bet on him trending upward toward year two as they put as they get this offense ready for a new season without Michael Pitman he's going to be a huge part of it. The down stuff on the two wide receiver sets little more concerning Warren is the clearest beneficiary to everything that I said with the if if you're right about Pierce you want exposure to Tyler Warren he's got to be the answer as as a big part of what you do in the short and intermediate range. Yeah and right now in ADP we are a little bit behind both downs and Tyler Warren about three spots on on underdog and it is a little bit more pronounced on like FFPC type site especially on Tyler Warren for for tight and premium scoring there so Jack you know I mentioned kind of at the top we do have a decent amount of unlisted target share for the Colts again we're you know towards the end of June so we we try to kind of siphon that off slowly as as the season you know comes closer here but downs and Warren are a spot I do think we could potentially bump up just given their their target sprout run with with Daniel Jones last year was you know second and third on the or downs was first and then and Tyler Warren was second earth excuse me third behind behind Michael Pitman there. So curious your thoughts on I'm potentially adding some more volume there to downs and it warned for us. Yeah it really does just come down to what percent probability we assign to them signing another White receiver. I think if it gets to the end of August and I think that most of that unlisted would go to downs and Warren pending the Pierce ankle recovery stuff. I don't think honestly that I'm enough of like a ball-nower to know how down to fair on the outside so I'm just kind of reading the news there and like trying to to react rather than predict. It sounds like it's it sounds like they're going to try him on the outside but there's been some stuff recently from OTAs and stuff that Ash and Doolan might be the favorite for that job. Right now there is a big difference in size between downs and someone like Aminara St Brown downs is 5.9. 171 or at least he was at the combine. Aminara was 5.1197. So I do think that there's some risk that they can find him in the slap of light grits said with Pitman gone he should just get a ton of targets. The target per hour on should be massive if we're talking a three-biter-sever set and Ash and Doolan and Alec Pierce are on the outside. On Warren I think that it's really the same thing he should get as much volume as he can handle. The targets aren't all that valuable especially if you're not in a full PPR league because his 8L last year was only 5.4. The other thing I had on Warren that I just thought was worth mentioning is that he does have some push equity so you could get rushing touchdowns and stuff but in general I kind of agree with everything that's said. Like five rushing TDs last year and is coming off in a kill. So I gave him a huge rushing TD right to have him for like 0.6 rushing TDs on like six carries but I'm with you. I think that's a real thing for Warren too. I want to say that I didn't know about the Keenan Allen thing until we started reporting this. I'm a little bit out of the loop. I had a big note that there's intent for both downs and Warren in the decision to let Pitman go. If they go and sign Keenan Allen then I have to reconsider that intent point. Also on Doolan he's never he's been with the team his entire career never run more than 120 targets in a season. So I'm skeptical that he's going to be the answer. Yeah so I don't think it's like super far along if Keenan is going to join the Colts but the Athletics James Boyd basically said they could consider signing Keenan Allen. I think there was an ESPN article that alluded to the same thing. I don't know how much of it is news versus speculation. The Roto World Blurb says that Allen played under Stecken when Stecken was calling plays but the Chargers so there's a little bit of familiarity there. But yeah it's just something I wanted to bring up because it would there are a decent size rounds. I don't know how much I might be overstating the credibility of those rumors. All right let's head to the Jaguars here. This is the team I thought we were going to spend the most time on. So if that's the case it'll be a nice nice long episode here for you all but the Jags again I think just one of the man one of the toughest teams to distribute touches to both in the backfield and in the wide receiver room as well. And then you have the tight end aspect where they draft Nate Borkacher in the second round you know who has 38 career college receptions and then you know just yesterday they signed Breton Strange to a three year $48 million contract. So there's a ton of questions I think on how the Jags kind of want to approach this season offensively just a little higher overview obviously Liam Cohen back here as the head coach and play caller in terms of team level projections for the Jags ETR we are at 62.1 plays. Gretches at 63.5 we have a 59.9% pass rate and Gretches at 61% there. So a little bit higher on the plays and pass rate is going to lend to you know a decent bit higher projection on Trevor Lawrence and kind of this passing attack as a whole last year they ranked third in the NFL in 11 personal usage at 71% again Travis H&E TN gone here Chris Rodriguez is in and then one note I thought was interesting they were the second slowest and neutral pace last season but still finished 10th overall in plays they were also seventh in motion rate so that that's something we hit on in the first episode as well as like teams with a higher motion rate are likely just going to suffer a little bit in pace due to you know the the seconds between plays there and and getting that motion going and then they also finish fifth and pass rate over our expectation last season. So Gretz curious your thoughts You know you're close to a play and a half higher here and then About 1% higher and pass rate here is your outlook for the Jags and their second season under Liam Cohen You said 10th in play rate. I assume it's a difference in like meals and spikes and stuff because you guys look at the stuff That's actually relevant and I look at the the official numbers, but I think they were fourth in official plays It looks like everyone from like third to 10th was within like 10 plays last year So that's probably the Screpancy there But definitely we're high in play volume even though they I have the notes that they you know weren't as fast in pace But above average PROE and I think they're gonna be an efficient enough offense and an offense that moves the ball That I that's why I haven't run in a lot of plays But as you said, I mean the big story here is just the hardest team to project my big like top line thing on these guys is There's teams I think when we do projections we think about I was talking about the moving target element We think about like what the team's gonna be or like we know there could be a Trishon and things like that I think there's teams as we move further along in the history of the NFL We have the 17 game seasons and we have health related stuff that are thinking about it as a moving target as they go into a season They have a lot of depth they have a lot of stuff if you look at Jags season last year very clearly one of these teams It was had different stages throughout the throughout the weeks In the preseason when we did when meaning only to the show I talked about Maybe Travis Hunter could be as big of a number one Or as because of his prospect profile could be a number one that would threaten Brian Thomas It was a one-two turn receiver and it was just all about those two guys. That's what we had going in The idea that Thomas maybe wasn't this clear number one actually that side of it was maybe a little bit Accurate the hunter side maybe not so much But midseason they trade for Jacobi Myers late season obviously Parker Washington's a huge part of this passing game It's a completely different thing throughout the year and now you have all four of those guys. I'm projecting it Looks like you guys are projecting to get the same way This is hilarious you guys have the same number of targets for the top three guys when we get into the receivers I have them all within 14 targets Projecting at the same way, which is like I don't know who's gonna be the number one week one let alone week six week 12 and week 17 Like I believe that that could be different throughout the stages depending on who's healthy They have the most unique player in the league in Travis Hunter how much offense he's playing And so all of that is very fast Yeah, the the wide receiver splits if you look just you know If you break up the last season there, you know through different weeks It's just a painstaking completely different picture, you know regardless of who you're looking at So it is a really tough one to try and pin down exactly how they once a deploy this especially when you do have Travis Hunter returning from injury and then and then they you know give Jacobi Myers a Contractor extension so let's table that for a second though talk through Trevor Lawrence Projection here again. Gretches a little bit higher on plays and pass rates So naturally comes out a little bit hotter on on Trevor Lawrence as well projected for about 40 more pass attempts Then us a little bit higher on completion rate. He's at 65% where x64.2% we do have a near identical touchdown projections We're at 27 passing TDs Gretches at 26 and a half But one thing I do want to hit on here too is is kind of the bump in rushing touchdowns that Trevor Lawrence had last year Career high nine rushing touchdowns Gretches projects four and a half for the succumbence season were at 3.3 so You know and and while it was a big spike for for T-Law He has had I believe three and every single season so that might be a spot that we want to come up on Trevor Lawrence There we also saw I'm not sure if this is if this is really like a correlation or just a causal thing But in Liam Cohen's you know year with the box Baker may feel it also scrambled at a at a career high rate He kind of I think encouraged that a little bit and then we saw Trevor Lawrence kind of break out a little bit in the rushing department to last season So maybe maybe a better outlook for him this upcoming year Trevor Lawrence six and a half percent scramble rate last season in 2024 is 4.1 percent so I think that was probably kind of a nudge from Cohen to use his legs a little bit more And then one one thing on Lawrence to and this kind of goes with like team splits throughout the season and the first six games of the year the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence had a seven and a half yard 8 out on all of his past attempts in the last 12 games. It was 9.3 yards so almost a two yard jump and an average step the target that's been something that's been commented on the offseason as well Like the Jags really want to continue to push the ball down field and hunt explosive plays that 9.3 yard 8 out would have been second in the NFL The Rams were the were the league high at 9.5 and the Patriots were second at 9.3 there so you know It'd be interesting just to see kind of how this how this Jags offense flows into year two But Jack any thoughts on Trevor Lawrence fantasy outlook and how we're projecting him going into this season Yeah, I'm looking at the pass rate again with with Gritch being higher than us We do have a bump from where our alko has it so we are a little bit higher but Seeing regret just projection is makes me think maybe we could go even higher. They had the fifth highest pass rate over expectation last year And when they got really really hot at the end of the season They really leaned into the past they had five straight games with a positive pair I'll eat in the year 8% 7% 3% 12% and 2% So I'm wondering if maybe we could go even harder into the past tilt especially given the fact that they lost ETN and Ella have just to an in Chris Rodriguez at running back I'm thinking maybe we could get closer to to gratcha 61% number instead of the 59.9 right now All right, let's head to the running back room here a very interesting backfield to discuss as well again Travis H&N off to the Saints they bring in Chris Rodriguez from the commanders who is a college running back with Liam Cohen at Kentucky So they have they have that tie as well Chris Rodriguez did undergo offseason foot surgery is fully expected to be back by training camp But that has that news has since his ADP down quite a bit We are a little bit above market on on Chris Rodriguez and mostly in line with Baytial Tutan in terms of our projections We have Baytial Tutan at 169 rush attempts Gretch is at 179 We are at 150 on Chris Rodriguez Gretch is at 160 so relatively even split there Gretch You know 10 10 attempts higher on Tutan and 11 higher on on Chris Rodriguez So essentially the same and then we have the targets distributed relatively equally as well We are at 39 on Baytial Tutan Gretch at 44 and then we are at 16 on Chris Rodriguez Gretch at 17 So Gretch curious your thoughts on we ended up pretty close on on a backfield split that I think is is pretty tricky to nail down So curious how you see this duo playing out in in 2026 I have the same thought when I saw the the stuff in our spreadsheet being the split like obviously I'm running a little hotter but the splits being very similar in terms of both rushing to receiving for both backs and then how we're splitting the rushes and how we're splitting the targets being very similar as well I do think Chris Rodriguez is going to have a real role. Cullen has the familiarity going back to Kentucky He's referenced Rush yards over expectation a couple of times this offseason which is kind of interesting I feel like like he's doing the same stuff we're doing like he's referenced a few different things That have made me think that he's like on NFL pro and like looking at some of these stats or or whatever I mean he's got guys in the organization he's talked about yards after contact and all the stuff that things at fantasy people talk about I kind of love it But C. Rod was really good at that stuff and Tutan frankly wasn't so when he's referencing that stuff like he's referencing what Chris Rodriguez brings and the interior rushing yards had brought up Then brought up and he's gonna have a you know a short yardage role although they referenced the Tutans good and short yardage as well throughout the offseason and he did have a bit of a short yardage role last year Um so anyway, I think C. Rod's gonna be a big part of it and I think he brings a specific skill set and he's the easier side of this to project the Tutan thing There's a lot of people that are like There's um There's too much optimism with Tutan and I guess the way that I would think about it is one of my like broad takes on We've talked about how the defenses have gotten a lot better you know in the first show and as we were talking through things It's not about the defense of fronts and in blitz packages and things I think that maybe influence like making the road a little tougher for rookies right now and I think you saw that at a lot of different positions I think you saw it with Several of the receivers were talking about with Jayden Higgins a little bit ago. Maybe that's part of what happened with Jayden Higgins Uh this year But I think that's definitely something that you have to consider with Bayeshell Tutan here when you also consider that the offseason stuff was obviously really bullish for what they've seen from him internally They're clearing space for him to play a bigger role pretty clearly. They're letting you TN go. They're moving through the different things They bring in Roderie guys and I do think Roderie guys is gonna have a real role But Bayeshell Tutan's a guy that they really liked James Gladstone the GM famously in his interview to get the job Highlighted Tutan as a day three guy they may look at um as a type of player that analytically focused you know Organizations might be interested in and then they went and drafted him on like the second pick of day three We joked about it last year on this show. I think mainly only where it's like You know he's our day three guy we're gonna look at okay. We waited long enough. We have the second pick of day three. We're gonna take him Um, they they seem to really like him his is evasion stuff is explosion stuff all very good in college Um, he had some fun ball issues last year. Cohen is seems really clearly beyond that He's been talking about how they're trying to get him to not run with two hands on the ball in space because he's too worried about the He's like we've already fixed that like now. I need you to run with one hand and and and create more Um, and so I do think some of this is just they they are really optimistic about Tutan Evolving one thing I want to notice people will talk about look when Alan as a as a passing down's back He had a 0.37 yards per out run last year really poor. They brought in a mere abdula. They have DJ Dallas I do think they're going to use some type of a passing down back when you think about you know bringing in abdulla um But I also think that that's like basically only the long down and distant stuff. And so I didn't know how high to go on Tutans receiving because last year he didn't have much at all. You guys are going high on it as well or up around 40 targets like I did. It feels high compared to last year. I'm basically seeing Tutan in the ETN rule doing a little bit of both in Rodriguez in last year's Tutan rule as the secondary sort of rush only change of pace back. I don't know if that's right, but that's kind of how I'm projecting it. - Yeah, and I think the third down rule maybe in question for Tutan, but ETN still got 52 targets last year just playing that early down rule. They did on the Quint Allen a lot on third downs. The issue, I want to get excited about these guys in fantasy. I do kind of think it's going to be a three headed running back by committee though with the Quint Allen, the Quint Allen actually played more snaps than Vatual Tutan last year, which I think people would be shocked to know. Obviously the touches did not follow, but they certainly liked him out there in past protection. And the short yardage role is something that I am curious on as well because you mentioned it, Gretz, they used Baytual Tutan in that role last year. He had some more success scored four touchdowns on six carries inside the five. Well, Travis H. Ann only had two touchdowns on 11 carries inside the five last year, but meanwhile, Chris Rodriguez is kind of that yards after contact specialist. So is that role going to go to him? Is it going to be more interchangeable? I think it's probably just going to be kind of whoever's out on the field. It might not necessarily be a specialist role there, but yeah, Jack, pretty interesting backfield here to discuss any thoughts on this trio and I guess, Seerad and Tune specifically. Yeah, I think Tune's a pretty interesting evaluation because if you just look at PFF, he averaged 3.2 yards after contact per attempt. He forced 19 missed tackles on 83 attempts. If you conveniently set the minimum rush attempts threshold to 80 because he had 83 attempts, both of those numbers rank pretty good for running backs, but at the same time, he ranked 54th out of 55 qualifying running backs in PFF rushing grade. So despite forcing missed tackles, despite getting yards after contact, he still didn't grade out very well. And if you go back and look at his prospect profile, there was some concern about like a lack of vision and an inability to read blocks. I don't know if that's what was kind of coming into play as a rookie for him. And it's interesting that Cohen brings up like the yards after contact stuff because Chris Rodriguez was very good at that. Tune was still pretty good. It's just that he still wasn't all that productive despite getting yards after contact. And maybe Cohen is new school enough that all he cares about is yards after contact. And the reading the block stuff is something that he either doesn't care about or thinks that repetitions will help Tune get better at that. But I think we've seen that from a lot of coaches, that's something that doesn't really fly. So I'm interested to see if like the consistency of a Chris Rodriguez and the dependability ends up winning him some more carries than fantasy managers would like. Or if it really is just like the yards after contact stuff, which Tune was not as good as Chris Rodriguez as but still pretty solid at as a rookie. - To that point about vision, Bill Bardwell had this tweet. I just looked it up October 7th of last year. It lives a run free in my head. 'Cause I was big on Tune last year. Liam, Liam Cohen, I've dialed up a great call with throwing a swing screen into a blitzer. Blockers are gonna do their job. All you need to do is beat one man in space, facial Tune, one space. And the video is swing bass, where there's two blockers engaged in Tune ran right into one of the defenders who was engaged with the blocker. He like, he had room to run and he somehow ran into an engaged defender. The man in space that Barnwell's alluding to in the video is downfield. It's a very, very funny tweet. You guys gotta look it up if you haven't seen it. But that's a concern for Tune. I'm hoping in your two, it's a little bit better. - I do wanna add on the yards after contact stuff. Depending on where you look, it is quite a bit different. I was looking at Prof. Paul reference. Last night, they have Chris Rodriguez as leading the NFL among qualified rushers with 3.0 yards after contact, per attempt and basal Tune is at 2.0 there. So I'm not exactly sure how it gets charted at Prof. Paul reference compared to PFF, but certainly a decent amount of noise. I think in those stats, so just something to keep in mind. It seems like both backs are probably pretty good in that space, but I think that certainly C-Rod's specialty. And then in terms of just like expecting more targets to go to Tune's way, Chris Rodriguez has seven career targets, which is just pretty outrageous for a guy that's seen the field as much as him. So he is essentially, we have him essentially projected for one target per game, both Duke Rechen and we at ETR. So it's pretty much going to be all groundwork, presumably for Chris Rodriguez there. All right, let's get into the wide receiver room here. I would say the best part about projecting this at least is there's only pretty much four to choose from. You have Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jacobi Myers, and Travis Hunter after that. It's really no one I think the public would acknowledge. You have Josh Cameron, Austin, Tramel, Tim Jones. So at least we got four guys to worry about here, but it is really tough to distribute those targets, especially with just having a pretty big unknown on how much offense Travis Hunter is going to play here. So Jack, we are extremely low on Travis Hunter right now in the fantasy market. We only have him, I believe for, let's see here. We only have him for 30, or excuse me, 47 targets on the season. He pretty much met that number in the limited games he played last year. So certainly coming in low on the market just curious your personal thoughts on kind of the Travis Hunter usage and why we're so below market there. Yeah, so the reports this off season are that he's going to play in more cornerback and kind of be a part time wide receiver. And I think if you go back to when he was a prospect, the prevailing thought that was that he was a better cornerback than wide receiver, obviously he won number two because he had the combination of both of them. And if he was just a corner or just a receiver, he wouldn't have really been sniffed like top two draft capital. But I think between that and the fact that they actually have like three really competent wide receivers, they don't need a huge role from him on offense. They also kept him like pretty limited as a wide receiver last year. He played mostly in the slot. He had a 7.8 A dot. He had a 6.6 yards per target. He did flustered a little bit in his last game before the season ending injury at 101 yards on 14 targets to be fair. So the per target efficiency still wasn't anything particularly special. So I think he does have like three prongs contingent upside where if any of BTJ Parker Washington or Jacobi Myers goes down, he would be in a bigger role. And like you said, he has no competition for being the weak one wide receiver four. But they did draft two tight ends in the draft, including one in the second round who's a blocking tight end. I don't know if they want to play more 12 this year. And if they're missing a wide receiver, they could potentially go more in that direction rather than sticking with the 11. They were top three in 11 last year. So that could be something that they change if one of their top three goes down. And then the other thing is if he is the wide receiver three, even if they stick with 11, all three of those wide receivers have shown an ability to command really high level target shares. Jacobi did, has over multiple years commanded like a 20 plus percent target share. Brian Thomas did as a rookie. Peabotch had monster target shares down last year. So those guys could grow a role as well. And it's not just Travis Hunter just kind of walking into a 16 or 18 percent target share. We could see targets condensed more around the other two receivers with Hunter playing more of like an ancillary role. So that's why I'm a little bit lower on Travis Hunter. But I, Gretch is quite a bit higher than us here. So I'm curious to hear his take. Yeah. So probably the two, because I think you said everything really well, the two things in sort of the interest of not doing a whole podcast on Travis Hunter, which we could easily do are that I do think he was a really good wide receiver prospect separate from the fact that he was better at corner. And then my read on all this stuff about where he's going to play more is that Travis Hunter himself wants to play on offense. And I think he's been very clear about that internally. That's, that's been sort of my bias that I've read all the quotes from since the beginning of last year. And everything that I hear reinforces that or his confirmation bias to me. So that's just where I approach it from. But like even this off season when they talked about and playing more corner early in the off season, there was a quote. I'm pulling it up because it's in coach begin to shout out to him for doing such great work. It was James Gladstone being on the rich eyes and show. And they asked about that. They asked about playing both ways. If they're done with it is the way that the question was posed. And they said absolutely not, obviously, he said to play on both sides of the ball. But he says the piece that I think we can expect to see is actually an uptick in corner usage. Last year it was higher volume, higher percentage of wider receiver usage than it was corner. I think we can expect to see that corner percentile and count and go up as move forward. That's not to say anything impacts his availability and usage on offense. It just means that we that the corner back usage will increase. Now again, you can't do all of that stuff, but he actually added a minute later. It's not to say that it won't increase on offensive either. But it was lower on the defensive side this past season. We also have a different defensive corner back room, etc. But he's emphasizing that even the offense could increase from last year at that point, which to me is like there was some discussion internally after the early off season because it was really early in the off season when Gladstone like pretty bluntly was like, look at our depth chart. He's going to have to play more corner next year. And it was like, yeah, I mean, that makes sense. And then it's like, now they're like, well, let's back up a little bit. We're not going to take away the offensive responsibility from him too much, which to me, it just feels like the player is behind the scenes is like, hey, what, you know, what the heck? Like this is where I thought we were. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but that's my read on it, which means I'm projecting this is not like a top three in a wide receiver for. I'm projecting it like this is going to be rotational, right? And that's, and I'm still way more concentrated than I should be. But like you said, all the other players are really good. For a while, I had Myers really, really low. I ended up adding more to him. They traded for him. They gave him a big contract. He's been really consistent over the years. He does seem like the least sexy of all of these names to me. But I've always been a guy that's like, oh, my, ours is better than people think. But the, the staff that stuck out to me, Parker Washington had the third best yards per out run in the NFL from the point of the jar, Jacobi Myers trade on. It's not that Jacobi Myers changed the, or maybe he changed the offense, but Parker Washington behind only Jackson Smith and Jigba and Pukin, a cool was the third best freaking wide receiver by yards per out run in a full time role, running a lot of routes. I mean, this is not a manufactured thing where like a guy's running limited routes or anything. And so then you sometimes see they per out stuff spike. He's playing a ton and he's just a star from the moment Jacobi Myers is acquired. And we know that Trevor Lawrence has liked those types of receivers in the past. Even go back into the like, I always talk about Jamal Agnew, like a kick returner having relevant relevance in fantasy as a slot guy for a brief stretch that one year, because he's always like to seem to throw these routes to the slot guys and some of the tight ends and over the middle and the outs from the interior alignments. He doesn't seem to like to throw the outside stuff. If you read the quotes on Brian Thomas, for example, there's a ton about Brian Thomas' attitude is good. And we got to get better with the connection between Lawrence and Thomas. And they're working so hard at it and all these things. And it's really optimistic. And it makes you want to go heavy on Brian Thomas, but it just reinforces if you remember last year that that's not Trevor Lawrence's strength. And that again, Brian Thomas' breakout in his rookie year was with Mac Jones at quarterback. It was not with Trevor Lawrence. That's not a natural fit. They're trying really hard to get that back. And I think Thomas is going to be a focal point this year for stretches and for a variety of reasons. They want to get him engaged. She was hurt a lot last year as well. I think they'll do more quick game with him. They talked about more screen game and he was really good at that with Jones late in the year. It was part of the breakout as well. And he has good ball and hand stuff going back to college. So I'm intrigued by Thomas. I don't think he's the one that fits everything as cleanly. The other three guys have the lower eight on and move around more. Hunter was doing some slot stuff as well. One of the ways that as we're sitting here talking about this, I'm hearing you guys and I'm looking at the numbers. To play this is Trevor Lawrence. You guys are lower on pass rate, but I was noticing as you went through with the yards per attempt is actually really close here. We've been emphasizing that I tend to be higher because I'm playing and I'm sending a lot of targets to the to the better receivers. You guys have it pretty concentrated here on good receivers and suddenly your yards per target or attempt is up by mine. And in my notes, I have his efficiency as being higher than previous at the yards per attempt that I was at that I have him high in some ways relative to his old stuff, but I wrote that he showed real improvement last year under Cohen and has good weapons going forward. Some of the best he's ever had. I mean, if you guys are wrong on the pass rate, if their pass rate is up around me, you guys might wind up really high on Trevor Lawrence at the efficiency that you have as well. So maybe the way to capture the uncertainty, but the depth in talent at receiver is through Lawrence. The main thought for me with this is it could be different who's winning at different points throughout the year. I don't really know how I want to play it. I like all these guys in different ways. I do think Hunter is the trickiest one for a variety of reasons. I want to bumping his targets as I was reading some of those coach be index quotes, but I do think he's the guy that's the one that's clear that could just lose, uh, lose routes, right? And so I understand why you guys are significantly lower than me on his targets. That makes a lot of sense. But what I think is that probably collectively the 80 piece for Thomas Washington and Myers are probably too high. And yet where they go, one of them is probably likely to be a pretty big winner. And so you do want, I think want to make your bets. I'm probably making a more on Washington, which feels weird because he's, I always talk about the long view. He's the worst of the long view guys. He's last just really the breakout for him. He had an interesting prospect profile, but Brian Thomas better long view back to college. Jacobi Myers longer NFL track record of competency. Travis Hunter. Really strong long view. If you talk about the collegiate receiving profile being really good, not bad. I mean, not bad just because he was better as a corner. But Washington to me fits Lawrence so much better and everything that he's the one that's the easiest for me to see. And then Thomas, I think, will be featured more. And he's the other bet that I like. Myers is the one that I end up saying it's a little bit like small hit ish and not big hit ish. And like, I don't know if he can really win in a massive way. And then Hunter later, I think you can take those swings too. It's probably more of a best ball play or, I mean, I guess it's a redraft play where you're hoping that like Jack said, if there's injuries like in routes open up, then you have that element of it. It's a really tricky room to play, but it's going to be a good offense. Liam comes a good coach. The last thing I'll say is I projected a ton of wider receiver targets and I have the running back targets down, which is weird for common offenses. They were down last year too, though. It's not weird for Lawrence. But back in Tampa, they baker through a ton to the backs under Cohen. And I actually thought the backs rates would go up this year in Jacksonville or excuse me, last year in 2025 under Cohen. They didn't really. And now they lose ETN and Tutton didn't get a lot of play in the past game. And so I don't really know that they're going to need to throw the backs a ton. They have all these short target guys. They might do more wide receiver screens. They may use the tight ends in the short game. It's all very tricky. Yeah. So, so where we have it right now, like you said earlier, was we just have all three wide receivers with the same number of targets. And we come in on underdog close to Parker Washington's ADP, low on Brian Thomas and high on Jacobi Myers. And so it seems like the market is thinking probably BTJ and P Washer the first two. And then if you have them for similar targets, Brian Thomas is going to be more efficient on a perturget basis. And they're a little bit lower on Jacobi. Once Jacobi got acquired and if you ignore his first game where he was in a part time role, Parker Washington had a 0.27 targets per hour on Jacobi was 0.22. Brian Thomas was down at 0.16, but there is the qualitative stuff from this offseason with Brian. I mean, Brian Thomas said it doesn't hurt the round anymore. That's pretty much as clear as you can be that he was pretty significantly hampered by injury last year. And the offseason stuff on BTJ has been really positive. John Shipley, who's their best B-writer, said that he's the front runner to be the MVP of the offseason program off of the Jags this year, which I thought was just a figure of speed. But then I looked into it and it's like a real MVP that they give out. And last year was Parker Washington. So I don't know if that has any predictive ability, but it sounds like Brian Thomas Jr. is having an awesome offseason so far, which makes me want to be higher on him. But the numbers from when they're all on the same team and training the field last year were just so anti BTJ, which you could talk yourself into being invulated. But that's why it's so tricky. And I don't know if maybe we're underrating that part and we're too high Jacobi as a result. And he's going to fall down to clear Wider Seeber 3 if BTJ is fully healthy. But I'm with you Parker Washington. What are you doing for two Wider Seeber sets? Because as we talk about the tight ends next, they bring in Bore Kirscher. Drafton in the second round. He's one of the biggest like the clearest blocking tight ends. He never had 200 receiving yards in college. They also get this Tanner cozy old guy late that I mean, I don't know if we have time, but this is my most like the late round rookie that I'm maybe most excited about. This guy had a 94 catch season in 12 games of ball state. Then 74 and 13 the next year at Houston. You have like nine plus catches in seven of his 12 games that ball state year. And then like six plus and eight of 13 games at Houston across two offenses the last two years. Four plus catches in all, but two of those games. Basically every single week a massive part of the past game when you think about projecting college stuff to the pros and he's like six six. They're talking about him in the red zone. He had great job numbers. He had a good three code yet a good 40 time for a tight end. It's like super athletic. He's probably one of the three best tight ends in the entire league already, but no, I'm just kidding. I'm like, I'm like way more interested in him than the second round tight end, but they add those guys to Brent and Strange. They're going to run more to tight ends sets now. BTJ probably going to stay on the field there in the two receiver stuff. Do you guys have it as would it be Parker Washington is the other guy that probably stays? I think it's a little bit unclear. Parker Washington did play quite a bit outside last year. I think it could be like it's not the same two I received is on the field and every two I received a sudden it is like they have three competent guys. They rotate them. But yeah, I don't totally have that. I don't know the exact percentages. They're going to be rolling out there assuming they do more two tight ends stuff. I think ultimately more heavy personnel sets would be like the biggest detriment to Travis Hunter in his playing time. I do think all of BTJ Washington and Jacobi Myers are pretty interchangeable in terms of their roles and Hunter could be as well. But just if that's another like roadblock to playing time over those through ride receivers, you know, again, I think that's kind of why we ended up coming in the lowest on Hunter is just kind of the roadblocks. And if they do end up going heavier personnel because again, they were third in the NFL and in 11 personnel last year. So if that gets out back, it's just going to be obviously fewer wide receivers. I will say I have a quote here from Cohen from again, coach, begin to X hero. I believe that there's going to be an uptick probably in the NFL next year and heavier personnel groupings. I'm not sure we're going to over rotate. to a point where we want to get slower or less explosive. We still have some pretty damn good whiteouts that I like to use, which obviously is referencing Tain or Cosiel. No, I do think they're probably going to stay in a decent amount of the three. That gets, like I wanted to share that quote because it's everything we talked about at the beginning of last episode. And it's why we're going so long on some of these offices. This is the evolution of it. But Cohen, one of the sharpest young coaches in the league is saying, we're going to get our best players on the field. We're not going to get slower or less explosive just because of personnel grouping stuff. At the same time, they did draft a blocking only tight end of the second round. Like they're going to do some of that. One aspect I do want to jump back to BTJ a little bit too, just because it is a, you know, just with his rookie season and how it collapsed last year. I think it's, it is another really interesting spot. And, and, you know, Jack mentioned kind of like down the stretch that he had, he had the lowest target per outrun of kind of the main guys once he came back from injury and after the Jacobi Myers situation. And I'm a little bit concerned that they're only viewing Bryant Thomas as a, as a deep threat, you know, his A dot jumped three yards last year from, from his rookie season. He had over 400 more yack yards in his rookie season than a sophomore season. So, Grash, that kind of leads to, you know, what you mentioned too, down the stretch, like the Mac Jones, like they are feeding them screens and, and letting him cook with the ball in his hands. And if he's kind of only featured as a deep threat, which is, you know, if like that connection isn't quite there with Trevor Lawrence, I'm just a little worried that that the target volume won't be, won't be, you know, super consistent or efficient there for, for BTJ. So in his career too, he has a 21% target per outrun on 706 routes with Trevor Lawrence. That's, it's a 31% target per outrun in his 2602 routes with Mac Jones. So, I'm, I was going into last year. I was not like a believer that Mac Jones created BTJ, but given kind of how he, how his profile shifted to more, more of a deep threat, you know, they tried to use him in the intermediate part of the field last year. And he, he really struggled like going over the middle. He had a lot of drops as well in that span, you know, he gets hurt. So, hand, it's a, it's, it's a, it's a pretty convoluted kind of like profile and role when you look at it from that lens as well. And especially too, you know, I mentioned that A dot for Trevor Lawrence changing a lot from the beginning of the season to the end of the season, even though he had a 9.3 yard A dot in the last 12 games, that's like when BTJ had his, had his worst stretch of the season. So, I'm just, I'm just trying to, you know, figure out mentally how this is all going to work together to, to have these guys be productive fantasy assets. Where are you guys on? Strange because I mean, I already talked about their best tight end, but then they also have this other guy's strange. Yeah, and they, and they just signed him to a three year deal up to 48 million dollar contract. And he was very good last year. I mean, he was, he was 10th among tight ends in yards per route run. He was, he was tied with rock hours for that metric. And in ahead of, of John Johnson and Harold Fanon just didn't have like the pure routes numbers to really get that, that yardage and production out there. But I certainly think there are angles to his playing time coming down. There was consistent comments in the Coach Vick index as well shout out shout out Greg, you know, we're up and seeing him a lot, but it was basically like, you know, we like brand strange as a blocker, but we don't want it to be the point of attack blocker against defensive ends and, and, you know, stronger linebackers. And that's like why they drafted Borkerture. And, and so it's, I think there are some threats to his playing time, but he was certainly productive. When he was out there, I just don't think there's going to be a whole lot of volume going his way. Like I kind of, I kind of see it a little bit as, you know, like a, like a K-Dot in Tampa, where it's like, man, he's really going to need to be out there. If, if some of the wider receivers go down more, more targets could funnel his way. But for the most part, I expect the targets to, to mostly go through the wide receivers here. That's how I'm thinking of it too. It's tricky. Because I mean, he's been good. Like you said, but it's really hard when you have this many good receivers, even if they're a receiver injuries, you don't become the second, you know, target guy on the totem pole fairly sure and require multiple. Yeah. So we are, you know, we're a little bit ahead of ADP. We're like six spots ahead on, on underdog. But we are at 68 targets on strange scratches at 80. So again, just, you know, typical, typical gap there, I think, for, for our stuff. But yeah, go ahead, Jack. Yeah, I was just going to say if you just look at week 11 on, strange was ahead of Brian Thomas in both targets per hour on and target share. So if, if you're buying into the narrative that Thomas is going to be all the way back and healthy, that could be one where, where maybe strange is a guy we need to come down on. I don't think our projection is like overly aggressive or anything at the moment. But maybe if we, maybe we are expecting a little bit too much involvement, if we expect so much of this offense, the flow through the three receivers. I think it was mentioned that we have, we have the top three Jags, wider receivers all online at 91 targets right now and just to, to clarify, Gretch has Parker Washington in the lead at 104, Brian Thomas second at 102 and then Jacobi Mars at 90, Travis Hunter at 80 there. So we, we have kind of capitulated throwing our hands up a little bit and said, well, we don't, we don't fully fully know gradually, he's taking a little bit stand there and has, has Parker Washington up, up ahead, which I think is, is super interesting again, just kind of given the profiles of these guys. Yeah, he just feels like the one that's got the highest floor, I guess, because of where they were at the end of last year. And then on Hunter, I'm too high almost certainly, but I feel like they're going to throw him a bone, basically. They're going to get him on the field and throw him wide receiver screens and stuff. They were doing some ball on hand stuff short last year. I don't think there's like a lot of, I wouldn't describe my 80 target projection as there being a lot of ceiling above that necessarily unless there's a lot of injuries to other receivers. It feels like it's more like me saying, he's running a really high targets per route, but the routes are limited, basically, but it's probably still high. All right, one more team left here. That is the Tennessee Titans and the team that has the most turnover in this division with with Robert Salah coming in his head coach, they bring in Brian Debal over as the offensive coordinator and play collar here for the Titans to hopefully lead to a more productive season for Cam Ward here. On terms of a team level breakdown for the Titans at ETR, we are at 61.1 plays. Gretches at 60.2. Then we are at 61.8% pass rate. Gretches at an even 60% there. A little bit higher on play volume and pass rate for us on the Titans, which looking at the Titans, they ended up finishing fourth last season and pass rate at 64.9% our 61.8% this year is ranked Woodrank ninth in the NFL, but obviously of Brian Debal coming over who the giants were 26 in pass rate over expectation last year, 23rd and 24 19th and 2023. Obviously the Titans were so bad that they throwing was a necessity for them last year trying to come back into game. Again, it's always balancing that thing with these struggling teams. How much can we predict that they'll pass based on trailing gamescripts and everything there? The Titans' interesting spot here, Jack, how about you talk through our insight on the team level stuff here for the Titans and Brian Debal? I think despite the change in staff, this might be the least interesting team level stuff for your table teams were above average in pace in New York below average pass rate over expectation, although they obviously had quarterback struggles. We're just at Alago on the dropback rate, which is taking into account how bad they're expected to be. We have a little bit of a dock on plays. I do still come in a little bit ahead of Grinch, but I think the big thing really for this offense and the ceiling is how much improvement Debal can get out of cam ward. Like we talked about a little bit with the Colts, Debal got credited a little bit for making Daniel Jones semi-usable in New York, got some credit for Josh Allen's turn around in Buffalo. He'll need some of that magic because Ward was just brutal last year, 5.9 yards per attempt, 9.2 percent accurate. The Titans were 30th in EPA per play. We're obviously expecting some improvement as is everybody else, but I think the big question here is does Ward go from 5.9 yards per attempt, the 6.9 or the 6.5? Do they go from 30th to 25th in EPA per player? Do they get a little bit better than that? Look ahead lines there, 26th and average implied team total per game. We're kind of in that vicinity. The market is a little more bullish than us. We are below best bull market on cam ward right now, but I really think that that's just what it comes down to is how much improvement do you expect out of ward in this offense? Cam ward was arguably or maybe in arguably the worst fantasy quarterback. All of last season with 10 plus starts, he finished dead last at 11.4 points per game. I think a big contributor to that. He only had a 3.9 percent scramble rate, which I feel like almost needs to come up. There's a lot of times he's dancing around back there looking for options and just doesn't end up pulling sugar on a scramble. I think, man, if you could tell me he scrambled more like 5-6 percent of the time, I could maybe get excited about cam ward and fantasy. Otherwise, I just don't think the pocket production is going to be there necessarily. I think too with cam ward, a lot of tape guys swear that cam ward's way better than the box score output. He's going QB22 right now in underdog. So, Gretchen, I'm curious if through your all your ceiling signals analysis, what your opinion is on cam ward, essentially. Do you think he could potentially take a year or two leap now that they add, chronil tape and Wandao Robinson? Are you a believer in that at all or or what you read here on on ward entry in his sophomore season? Yeah, the whole thing comes back to ward, right? Robert Salah opened his tenure in February with a quote that they plan to take him back to his rookie year back to square one, just a tacit. criticism of the entire last regime. Brian Callahan probably the worst coach in the league last year gets three six games gets fired right away Mike McCoy takes over for those who don't remember Mike McCoy He was one of the most predictable and maligned coaches of the 2010s He had a short stint with the chargers that a four-year stint with the chargers during the early 30s of Philip Rivers career That was not like necessarily horrible and he gets fired after two. Well, I don't know I thought it was pretty bad some people might defend it I don't know it wasn't like clearly horrible yet two nine win seasons, but the next two years are bad He gets fired he goes to the Broncos gets fired as a offensive coordinator gets fired mid season goes to the Cardinals the next year gets fired mid season I was already right in Staling Staling Staling Staling's that time That's the year when they started using David Johnson as a early down platter and stopped splitting him out Why even though his last healthy season he was the most dynamic tool threat like running back in the league He was running tight en routes like splitting out Mike McCoy just didn't bother to use him the way that Bruce Ariens had laid out a Blueprint that was like made him the most interesting player in the league he made him the least interesting Anyway, the Mike McCoy spends three years out of coaching then three years as a QB coach at Jacksonville underdog Peterson and then lands with the Titans He's not only one of these coaches that didn't have like a recent like Success story in the we talked about how the league is evolved and they're in their liking younger coaches He wasn't even good in the 2020 2010s He was the head coach for two of the two thirds of the season last year For this Titans team for cam ward It's very similar to Caleb Williams rookie with Matt Uberfluss and Shane Waldron and the guys that are designing everything getting fired in season And we have McCoy taking over the in game or the weekly game planning and all that I think it's really tough for a rookie quarterback to be successful when you have all of that You have an offensive line that was one of the very worst in the league the three top receivers and routes run are two day three rookies and the always inefficient van Jefferson It was a worse situation. I think I would record backs ever been it like genuinely. I don't think you like I guess I wouldn't know Pretty like 1990 but this is a horrible spot He was dead last among qualifying passers in EPA per dropback and people will point out that you know He had some issues. I did review some of my stealing signal stuff late in the season and I thought he was improving a little bit But he was not getting help In some of those games If you look at his adjusted yards per attempt he was under six in each of the first six games during the Calahann period Then in four of the next five he was over six and then late in the season he had his best stretch He had three games over seven all three of his top games of the year He closed the season in like his final four or five games I don't know that the split right in front of me, but his adjusted yards per attempt had gotten much better He threw two plus touchdowns in Yeah, his adjust yards per attempt in total was 7.3 from week 14 on which is just the last several game like four or five games But like I said he was below six point 0 in each of his first six career starts And so he had you know improved quite a bit down the stretch even statistically through two plus touchdowns in each of his last either four or five starts Where he played the full game he played like five snaps in week 18 But those are the only multi TD games he threw all season. So there was some stuff that was like Improving his sack right also came down had been a problem for most of the year But it came down during that period at the end of the year as well some stuff that I think is is a positive there But I do think you have to be really concerned about How quickly he can evolve from that even Caleb Williams was I think dead last people pointed out in completion percentage over expected Expectation last year and there's people are like yeah Caleb Williams is improved, but he's still not perfect It's hard to fix everything in one year We've seen this at a lot of different positions when guys have really tough rookie years even if they progress and they become good pros It's kind of a multi year progression and I do think that the the new coaching staff like saying we're gonna start over from square one is Reasonable I do have Some optimists and that Kim Ward can still be at least the mid-level Quarterback in this league. Maybe he's not like the the full ceiling, you know elite talent But he was never really expected to be necessarily one of the things with Caleb Williams turning it around as you did have Ben Johnson And you did have a better prospect profile as well for Caleb Williams. I'm a little bit More concerned about wards like full like long-term talent level and The coaching that is taking over here in table. I talked about the the Daniel Jones element. He also gets a lot of Credit for for Josh Allen's development early on, but like Josh Allen has gone on to probably prove that it wasn't Brian Dable Like he's been even statistically better after Brian Dable as well like he's gotten has had his best seasons and won his MVP post-Brian Dable so I do wonder I used to defend Brian Dable. I really like him. I do wonder about that But he should have much better weapons as you said Yeah, and our our projections are almost and locks up here on on cam Ward in terms of you know attempts yardage Touchdown output as well. So we are a little bit behind market on it I think we're probably going to stay that way all off season You mentioned even if he does take kind of a leap this season It was so catastrophically bad last year. It's it's probably just more of an incremental leap than like jumping you know one yard bump in in yards per attempt kind of thing and so Not probably not too much single QB has value for cam ward list season Let's head to the backfield though. This is a spot We are quite a bit above market on Tony Pollard especially and I want to leave this off with with a quote from from Robert Solomon asked about Nicholas Singleton the the back they drafted this season He said but to be clear Tony and Taijay are the bell cows of the swip all team and next got to compete his way and to find his way to that group Again, not a super surprising quote from from a head coach You know when he has to and comment backs and and draft a late round running back But you know we are we are well above market on Tony Pollard last year with Taijay Spears He had 174 carries and then the 14 games at that Spears play that was good for 71% of the running back Rush attempts, you know, he said a 1000 yards in four straight seasons has handled 500 carries in the last two years for the Titans so Jack we are well above market on Tony Pollard But I don't I feel pretty decent about it just given the workload Expectation any thoughts here on the split between him and Taijay and then if we you know if we're maybe wrongly discounting Singleton as as a real threat in this backfield Yeah, there was some early reporting Maybe quote and quote reporting from the sports illustrated suggesting that Pollard was the clear RB one and that Taijay would have to fend off Singleton for the RB two role. I think that at this point looks like it was just sports illustrated guys just kind of writing stuff with the recent Salah quote and we can expect more of a split a kind of what we're used to over the past couple of years the both Salah and the Titans running backcoats have been very positive when talking about Pollard all off season Pollard also averaged 4.5 yards per carry Over a thousand yards despite a horrific offense last year was a 0.5 Rush yards over expected per carry so he was pretty good. He's been pretty good I think it I think it makes sense to expect him To remain the clear RB one here with Taijay kind of more in the pass down role that we're used to And if you look at some of Singleton stuff it's it's almost similar to what we were talking about earlier with Tudon where there was some concern about his ability to find The right running lane and read his blacks right But he is good in space. We'll see if he can kind of make a mark in camp But as of now I think that it makes sense to have him as the clear RB three with Pollard is the the clear Clear RB one on early downs and spears maybe factoring in a little bit on rush downs for pass down sorry I have it the exact same way spears was far worse in traditional yards per carry last year despite averaging Like more than double the number of mistakles force per touch and that's been a thing with him where he's like really evasive But he's not actually turning it into a lot of yards um He He ran out of the uh had a a lot higher rate of carries out the shotgun and ran again stacked boxes quite a bit less frequently than then Pollard He was like 9% and Pollard was like over 20% Um, and so his expected yards per carry we mentioned that rush hours over expected stat Spears was 4.8 and Pollard was 4.0 and Pollard still had the way better Yard's per carry because he was plus five or plus 0.5 yard rush yards over expected per attempt Which Jack just said spears was minus point eight The spears is probably not a good rushing back But they have talked about these two guys as being good complementary skill sets I'm with you guys I think they're going to use them the same way they've been using them Pollard's become a good runner He's 29 but he's been a thousand yard rusher four years and row now Notable that he's only hit He's never hit 1100 yards on the ground. He's like gets 1000 and and and that's it I do think you're you're dealing with some of the high value touch upside There's a different regime But he ran over 50% of the dropbacks in each of the first five games right up until the game that spears returned After those first five games he never hit 50% of the routes again Taij spears is running routes and it's just it's just um Stealing from pony Pollards Overall role so if you're not catching passes and you're playing on an offense that has this You know second year redoing the rookie Season quarterback probably not going to be a very good offense And by the way the offensive line is pretty much the same as last year that wasn't very good It's expected in some of the offensive line stuff I've seen it's expected to be one of the bottom three Units in the league again. I do think Tony Pollard is a better than Gets credit for kind of runner like you guys are talking about him But I also think he's like a low upside play it's it's more of a best ball play I think it's a great like value best ball play where like just having all those touches is really nice But um yeah, I'm seeing it the same way singleton to me not he's a fifth round rookie Had some you know intriguing receiving stuff, but he had an injury to the senior ball We didn't get any testing numbers. I think there's like some potential to his profile But to me I was saying it for redraf. It's like a waiver wire play at best like like he's not, I saw that same quote you mentioned. It's a, it's a, it's a good one for us to, to feel comfortable about Pollard and Spears. Yeah. And for Pollard, we're at about 200 attempts, even Gretz is at 230 rush attempts. We are at 37 and a half targets on Piler Gretz set 31 there. And then that's kind of where the discrepancy comes in on TaiJ Spears as well. Gretz has 50 targets. We're at 35 looking back at, at the split between the two last year, Tony Pollard had 2.3 targets per game in the games with TaiJ and TaiJ was up at, 3.6. So I do think that it might be a spot we want to tilt a little bit more to TaiJ just in terms of, of the target share. And that's probably somewhere where we'll ding Singleton, just not necessarily believing that, that he'll be too much of a factor in the past game. It, to me, it almost seems like a spot where we continue to kind of lean a little bit heavier into Pollard on, on the ground, you know, portion of the work and then into Spears on, on the past game portion. And unfortunately that does even to Pollard's, you know, kind of fantasy, feeling a little bit assuming TaiJ continues to take that, that clear past downwork. All right, let's head to the wide receivers here, headline by the fourth overall pick and carnal tape getting drafted to the Titans. I think a pretty, pretty big surprise on draft night, you know, not even the consensus like wide receiver one prospects here. Some, some people had that as Jordan Tyson. So a take going fourth overall was, was a little bit of a shock. But certainly the Titans needed some weapons for Kim were they also bring in Wondale Robinson from the giants who signed a four year, 78 million dollar contract with the team as well. You know, he comes over with Brian Dayball. And you have Calvin really as wide receiver three in and Grisha, you know, kind of alluded to the lack of weaponry that that Kim Ward had last year, you know, you have Alec Ayomanar and Chimera D.K. as as like the depth here who, you know, it's a new regime in Tennessee. So kind of a lot of bodies here to discuss, but let's start with with carnal tape up top again, just since he is the fourth overall pick here. Our inputs are 102 targets on carnal tape. We are projecting 7.8 yards per target. Grisha is at 101 targets and 7.9 yards per target. So nearly identical projections there, but Grisha is a bit higher on Wondale Robinson. He's at 121 targets. We're at 97. So curious, Grisha, thoughts on how these two break down tape, you know, go ahead on any prospect takes on him and then how you think like Wondale will kind of transition to a new team here in his role. Yeah, Wondale comes over with Dayball. Last two years, 140 targets on the nose, 90 plus catches both years. We were talking about the Dalton Shultz stuff. You guys are projecting him for 97 targets. I'm projecting for 121. I was like, I mean, he's going to get more than that. It's just like Wondale Robinson gets so many targets in the short area of the field. The the carnal tape thing is one where I'm probably going to be wrong. I'm definitely misaligned with some of the other people that look at prospect stuff similarly where I'm probably a little too down on him. But I do have a kind of a strong opinion on him. He did not have a lot in the ball and hand data. He did not he had very high A dots. He did not have a lengthy production record. His first two years were good, but sub two yards per out run year three was really strong and it's not even really driven by the targets per out run. It's driven by the yards per target, which again, it's not ball in hand. It's almost all area. It's just really high A dots. He's really good at playing the ball down the field. And if you listen to them talk about him since I drafted him, they keep emphasizing his ability to get down field. When on contested catches, it comes up a lot and it's valid. It's clearly a strength of his. We talked about it out of peers. This is something that teams are prioritizing now because defenses are trying to take away the explosives. That's why they took him in the top five because it adds something that you can't get everywhere else. The problem is that is a skill that is better for real life offensive schemes than it is for fantasy football in like in my opinion. I want to know if that's it with car and L. Tate. People are like, yeah, I play with Jeremiah Smith. So he's got to like, you got to assume that he would do a lot more without Jeremiah Smith. My question is why didn't he because the players that played with we were all really obsessed with this teammate stuff right now in prospecting because of the transfer portal and how good some of these college teams are getting the players that smash at the NFL level both smashed at the college level. Justin Jefferson and Jamar chase both had over 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns. Terrace Marshall was overdrafted because he played alongside those guys and everyone said he would have been better if he wasn't playing with Justin Jefferson and Jamar chase. You got to you got to do it is sort of my thing. I'm not saying that carl take didn't he had a three plus yards per out run last year, but his profile was very specific to the the deep production. It was a really high yards per target figure and the target rate wasn't that amazing and the ball and hand stuff wasn't that amazing. And as far I still think I could be wrong by by suggesting that he's maybe not amazing long term again top five pick on the draft. He's going to get a lot of work. But as far as the immediate transition to the NFL, that's the stuff that I would be most concerned about. We talked about deep efficiency being tough year over year and in particular that that's something I think Jeremiah Smith being on the field helps you with. You're going to get more one on one side of the field. You're going to you're going to win down field. Now you're the number one on a on a worse offensive, you know, team relative to the skill level of the you know, the NFL level relative to what Ohio State had as a strength over their opponents. And you have to go win vertically against, you know, safe, better safeties, better DB's that are going to roll over the top more. I think you're going to see as deep efficiency probably not be amazing early in his career. Look at Marvin Harrison similar profile, what happened there. And that guy had a way better production profile at Ohio State with some good teammates as well. I've seen people talk about like Chris LaVeza guy. I was a little two down on. He played with JSN and Garrett Wilson. But a LaVe had like three years of strong targets per route. Tates best year. One year over 20% targets per route wasn't as good as LaVe's third best. I think if I have that right, LaVe had two 12 TD say seasons. Tate had 14 total touchdowns across three collegiate seasons. There's a lot that's good there. But I am a little bit concerned about the transition in year one, especially. I think he's going to be a good NFL player. I think he's going to be a good vertical player. I think the fact that he had a three plus yards per out run basically only on a yard does speak to his ability to win vertically and win at the catchpoint and contested catches and all of those things. I think he's going to be good. I want to be clear. But I think people are really pretty optimistic about his ability to be the immediate number one on an NFL team with this profile. I don't think there's enough. I'm not going to assume the short and immediate stuff. And then that's what one of Robinson is. That's how he fits into your scheme. So I'm projecting Wondale to actually lead this team in targets. And then Calvin Ridley's another one where his yards per out run. I don't want to be in on him. He's turning 32 in December. I don't like the old guys. He had he only played seven games last year. The final two. He played six naps and then missed several weeks and he came back and played one snap. So he really played five games. They were all with Kim Ward early in the year. He had a hundred yard game at the end of that. He had six plus targets in four of five. He still had a really good yards per out run profile last year. Like 1.85. It was good the year prior. He was a thousand yard receiver in both 2020, three in 2024 before the injury. Shorten 2025. Davos talked about how he coach Ridley back at Alabama. They have a relationship as well. Again, I don't want to be in heavily on Calvin Ridley, but people are completely out on this guy. There's a lot of money on his contract and it's like a legit NFL number one or has been thought of for most of his career. He's going to turn 32 now. A lot of risk there. But there's not a lot of drop off in the per out profile there either. So if you have Ridley as this like traditional number one ish while he's out there. Wondale as your slot receiver. That's a high volume slot receiver. Now is Tate just the vertical like I mean, it's hard for me. I do think I think Tate's going to be better than I'm letting on. But I even as somebody who's really into rookies, I have a hard time with it on A.O. Manor and DK real quick before I sent it to Jack. I try to be early moving on from guys where the incentive was there from the team to develop them and the player just wasn't very good. Both of those guys ran a lot of routes. They weren't good. They had matching 1.02 yards per out run. I don't think they're going to play a lot. I think it's going to be the other three as the main part of the passing game assuming Ridley's healthy. If Ridley's out, I think DK was a little more interesting and that he maybe is the vertical guy and that maybe opens up stuff for Tate. But I want to see Tate win in those ways. I know that some of the film guys, Matt Harmon, I heard was interested in some of his intermediate route running. Maybe there's more there. Maybe that's the part that I'm missing. But I'm a little concerned about how he immediately steps in and is dominant. This is not the same profile as some of the dominant rookies, like a Jamar chase. Just because he went top five like Jamar chase, it is not the profile Jamar chase. It is not the profile of even like Malik neighbors. The ball in hand, the depth of the volume at all debts. Those guys had it in college. If you looked at their profile, Tate has a very specific production record. Hasn't shown a lot else and people are filling that in because he played with Jeremiah Smith. I just want to point out that that's a tricky path. Yeah. And the fantasy market isn't extremely high on on Tate. I mean, he's going in the early six round right now, which, you know, as the fourth overall pick, like I think is is a decent discount. But I'm not a huge prospect, you know, analysts and in my own right. But just in terms of like him being touted out is contested catch ability is like his premier skill set. I don't necessarily love that transitioning. It's the NFL, especially with a quarterback like Kim Ward, who's who's not all that accurate. Jack, I do want to toss it to you. But first, I want to mention, you know, Gretches has 74 targets on Calvin really. We're at 59 and we've been like multiple rounds ahead of Calvin really and the best ball market. And it's a constant name thrown thrown out to me of, you know, why are we so why are we so high on Calvin really? And it's it's really we don't have much volume for him at all. We have we have 59 targets on him. And you know, he is about to be 32 coming off a broken leg. So I understand the concern, but just kind of given the competition he's dealing with at YDRC. We're three. You know, I feel okay about that position. But yeah, Jack thoughts on this on this tightness. I feel like we could get a quote on Ridley in August that moves his price 10 rounds up. Well, I didn't even not 10, but several rounds up. It's his 80 p's weird to me. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah, I was I was hoping to be the one to break the news. The Grinch that he better get ready to learn Calvin really. Because we we are the reason we have so many targets for IOMENOR and DK is largely because we are uncomfortably high on Ridley. But I do think that he's likely dismissed price right now and I think Gretches points on tape Are well taken we had if I'm remembering correctly. We had Jomar around a 22% target jersey rookie neighbors I think at 21 were at 19% on tape. So despite the top five draft capital I think that we do have a decent gap there and that's reflected in the best bull market as well. But with that being said, I do think everything that Gretches said makes a lot of sense and I do think it's pretty possible that Wondale or maybe even favor the Wondale could out target Tate as a rookie. So maybe that's a split that we could Could revisit on the ETR so an MC if we should bump Wondale ahead. Yeah, that's certainly a spot. I think we could get higher one question I do want to ask you guys for a move to tie it into here on on Wondale is his his profile You know did change a little bit last year in terms of target depth and and yards per reception He set career highs within eight and a half yard average at the target in 11.0 yards per reception You know, we always just think of him as this slot slot merchant, you know target volume merchant But the profile did meaningfully change last year and then that led to you know over a thousand yard season and Some more fantasy relevance and non-PPR league so But a pretty big departure from his first three years in the league So these are tough like efficiency spots to project. Okay, this this player, you know Showed us something for three years in a row and then in the fourth year kind of had a different leap to a you know New profile in some regard and he is following the same coach to to Tennessee So I'm a little you know curious if this is sticky Gretches Do you have any opinion on on kind of this one Dale if if he's just going to kind of return to me in that slot Low eight out merchant or or if this down the field profile He exhibited at least a little bit last year could potentially be sticky. Well going into last year I was too high or whatever I guess it didn't turn out to be too high, but I was high on Wondale From an efficiency standpoint that like it was way too low It was like too low to be sustainable prior to that and people were Not willing to to to draft him because they're like, yeah, he's gonna have all these targets But it's gonna be eight catches for 35 yards because that was all of his lines the year prior And I was like one of the things I wrote about in Cilling St. Louis He's gonna get a yard this year like he was wanting him Wanting them he was talking about them and it just didn't really make a lot of sense There was some situational stuff that kind of led to it the year prior with their quarterbacks And they had like Tommy DeFito playing and like there was some bad stuff that year two years ago I think last year it kind of over corrected he had that game. I think it was week two against the Cowboys OT game he he caught two bombs from Russell Wilson He had a like a long touchdown another one down like inside the 10 like suddenly he wasn't running a ton of deep routes But his area. It's did did spike and suddenly his deep efficiency was like super high like both of those I think were like slot vertical routes where like the Cowboys just didn't guard him and so like he he probably had more explosives than You'd expect to go forward. We're actually really similar in yards per target which is splitting the difference I brought him down and you and a lot from last year But also up from the prior couple of years I don't think he's just gonna be that kind of slot merchant But to be clear on Wanda like the targets per out of been really strong this whole career And if you go back to Kentucky, they were extremely strong and he he his eight odds developed to a higher level at Kentucky I don't think people realize that but he had an eight out of like over 10 one year in his final year and like a 30 plus percent targets Per out run like it was a legit wide receiver profile Which is part of why last offseason he was like yeah, I want to run real wide receiver routes And he finally got the opportunity to do some of that and then yeah, table brings him over They pay him they bring him in he knows the system They're trying to get a young quarterback in line like this veteran who gets open in a phone booth against anyone And you know at least in the short and intermediate range, but it's gonna make the The young quarterbacks life easier with some easy throws to get the ball out That knows the system that the coach is comfortable with him just seems really obvious to me that he's gonna get a lot of work Compared to a rookie who carnal take could develop into what people want him to be in year one I that's that's the thing I'm trying to emphasize is we haven't seen him do a lot in the short and intermediate I think they're gonna give him a lot of volume. He's a top five overall pick. He's gonna run routes. They're gonna give him opportunities I do think that's gonna be more of a work in progress over multiple years is the way I would look at his career On the target tree here. We have 75 combined targets on IOManner and DK and Gretch has 36 there So more than double on like kind of these secondary wide receivers I do think that's a spot we could potentially condense a little bit more on on one day I'll specifically and then the Calvin really question I think we'll probably persist until training camp maybe we get some more decisive mess there on who the favorite to be the wide receiver Three is but I do want to hit on tight end here as well They have gunner helm, you know presumably stepping into the tight end one role and he had pretty strong Per route metrics last year, you know, it was a little bit buried behind Chica Conco So never really got a high route share there for the Titans But had a 0.24 target per out run last season only got over 50% of the routes twice last year So not a great athlete, you know, 484 40 for helm but had a productive senior season at Texas and then good per route metrics last year We also have the instance where day ball brings over Daniel Belinger from the Giants But that kind of looking into the Belinger stuff he only average 26% routes last year with Theo Johnson healthy So I'm I'm like slowly getting more optimistic that he's gonna let gunner helm cook But you do have this kind of like you know him bringing over his boy and Daniel Belinger is that a big threat to Helm's playing time So Jack I'm curious how you view this this tight end room because helm, you know, theoretically there's there's a decent You know target boy that he could feel especially if his per route metrics carry over at all to his sophomore season How you seeing this this tight end room play out this year? Yeah, I think the big question is how high the stabs can get on helm Like you said the per route numbers were good 0.24 targets per out run 1.55 yards per out run As a rookie in that offense, those are both pretty good numbers He did out snap jig in three of the last four games they played together But that kind of coincided oddly with Chiggs target share spiking Over the last four games chick had a 20% target share Helm was down at 9% But I think the big question is how much does Helm play relative to Belinger? Salah recently called Helm a legit dude Obviously, that's not anything anything massive in terms of coach peak, but it does at least display some belief But they all does have the familiarity with Belinger Belinger is an inadequate blocker So I think that yeah, I think the big question is is how many snaps does Helm get up to does it get up to like 75 or is it going to be kept at 60? Yeah, Helm is a late round tight end this year going around 25 Tighten 25 on an underdog. We're mostly in line there But again, I could see reason to be more optimistic there Gretz you are a little bit higher on his targets. You're at 75 while we're at 62 on Gunner Helm We're pretty similar yards per target But any any reason to be you know excited about Gunner Helm is as a late round tight end pick do you think? You think you guys both just got everything that I would say I liked your note that Belinger when Theo Johnson was out there Belinger didn't run that many routes because I had seen it as I was looking at raw routes And I was like well Belinger actually did kind of cut into Theo Johnson and I was laughing when Jack said Almost exactly what my note is worry would be how high the routes get and I think he said almost the exact same thing or maybe you said snaps instead of routes but He made some nice catches is a rookie. I thought he played the ball really well. He's got of a fun profile 22% target sprout was strong in a limited routes role We don't always see that project forward to more routes at tight end especially oh conk was a great example He had like a 26% targets per out as a rookie and then he started running more routes and then we you know There's fewer targets per out. So Helm was in that like Specialized role now if he's running a lot more routes You're gonna see the targets per out probably come down a little But for the same reasons that I was talking about they're being target availability from Wandao Robinson and carnal tape Maybe is gonna be a work in progress in the short to intermediate range. I do think Tate's gonna get plenty of targets as well But and then I'm way too high on Calvin Ridley That's you guys are talking about I need to get ready to learn Calvin Ridley For those same reasons you could be you could be optimistic about Helm It's an often it's like Sometimes he's tight ends in these bad offenses that don't have good secondary receiving weapons can bump up to It's like don't show us career. We were just talking about don't show it's like this guy You know the situation can wind up being a hundred target situation for a tight end which is a pretty good thing But again, it's does he consolidate all the routes with Daniel Belinger there. They also brought in Kylin Granson another veteran ad and they have Did they draft Another yeah, Jared Jared can't again the seventh round. He's like a converted linebacker They've talked about playing on special teams, but they drafted a tight end in the seventh round and signed two free agent tight ends to support Helm I'm hopeful that Helm could potentially be an interesting dude though, but again the the ceiling of offense isn't great either so it's like Yeah, you know, he's probably just a fine late-round option I think the biggest note there is it's just the the upgrade and target competition this year I mean towards towards the end of the season last year, you know really had been hurt for a while Yeah, they're tossing out IO menorah dk van jafferson guy guys that are really really not strong target earners or producers So maybe that kind of lent to to Gunnar Helms higher target per out run as well. So, you know, maybe maybe the bullcase, not as strong considering they bring in Robinson and draft date, fourth overall as well as kind of like the Belinger edition there. Okay, fellas, that is going to wrap up the AFC South, not a single word, wasted in this two and a half hours here talking through one of the most exciting divisions in the league, of course. But great content, guys, so great chatting with you guys. Gratj, thanks for taking some time out of your birthday to talk with us here. Absolute pleasure. We will have two episodes coming out next week potentially as well, furthering this series. I really appreciate all you guys tuning in with us, sticking it out in the long haul here. Next divisions are to be determined as well. So we'll announce those later today, but really appreciate all the support the feedback we got after the first episode was really encouraging and appreciate all you guys. Tune in with us today, but that will do it for the AFC South and episode two of this eight-part series. Appreciate all you guys tuning in. Peace out.