ETE Projections Special Part 1: NFC South with Ben Gretch

[MUSIC] Hello and welcome to a very special edition of the Establish the Edge podcast. I'm Mark Duncan-Ring and will be your host today along side two NFL projections, Maven's Jack Miller and Ben Gretch. This will be the team-by-team projections preview, crew this offseason with Jack and I standing in for Mike Leoni on the show this summer. I know how much I've enjoyed this series as a listener over the years, so feel very honored to take over as one of the contributors and the host this year, as we continue on the tradition that Leoni and Gretch have set before us here on the Establish the Edge podcast. So thrilled to be here and take over this series. Want to bring in Jack and Gretch here. Jack, how you feeling? How's it going this summer as we head into the depths of the NFL offseason? Feeling good. I'm excited to be here. Me and you, we've got big shoes to fill with Leoni out of it this year, but I'm excited and honored to be here next to you and Gretch and filling in for Leoni. So I'm stoked. I'm excited to get this going. Absolutely big shoes to fill again, as a listener over the years, just really love the insight that Leoni and Gretch have provided here. I know it's a highly anticipated and sought after series here between Leoni and Gretch. So I think we'll find our footing here to provide some similar insight there. But Leoni, obviously, one of the best in the business. So we'll certainly miss his voice here, but hopefully you can fill that in. His previous counterpart. Now our counterpart, Ben Gretch, who's working be found at bangratch.substac.com. He's also on the Stealing Banana's podcast with Sean Seagull, which is a great listen. So Gretch, you've got some new partners on hand. How you feeling as we embark on another season of projections here? I'm feeling great. I told you guys earlier that big shoes to fill line, you both use it. I told you guys that one earlier because we all obviously have a ton of respect for Leoni. He's one of the absolute goats in the industry. And I know people have always loved this series. It's the thing that I get the most questions about. In the last, I would say it started a month ago. In the last month, and I'm like, man, we're not even close to when we usually do it. I've gotten, I would say a dozen DMs or questions. I'm like, this is, you guys are really looking forward to this thing. That's great. But you guys already said you had big shoes to fill. And we all know that we love Leoni. So I'll just go the other way. We don't need Leoni. We don't care about Leoni. You guys are phenomenal. You're doing it. We all know that you guys were the real thing that's been powering the projections behind the scenes for years. Anyway, Leoni's just the face and the figurehead. Obviously, we got the real goats on now. And the series will be much better for it. The truth comes out naturally with Leoni kicked to the curb here and the young bucks coming in to take his place. So yeah, appreciate that, Gretchen. It will be a fun eight part series here. We're going to break things down, division by division as we have done here previously over the years. We're going to start with the NFC South division today. But before we get team by team level here through the NFC South, we don't want to talk through just the macro lens of our projections process a little bit and kind of what goes in to the making of the projections. We'll be talking through throughout this whole series. So since this is episode one, wanted to do a little bit of intro there, not only on our projections process itself and how it's evolved over the years, but some of the kind of the meta macro trends that we've come to see from the NFL and how that is influencing our process as well. So one of the things I think is clear that we need to hit off on the top is that plays per game in the NFL last year, hit a 33 year low in 2025. There's only 61.3 plays per game last season. Again, that was the lowest number since the mid 90s. So pretty, pretty drastic change that changed there for the NFL. Scoring slightly increased however the highest since 2020 in terms of points per game. So it's an interesting, interesting dichotomy there that, you know, the place per game hit a low and scoring also kind of rebounded a little bit per team there. The yards per drive also did not change much last year, mostly just the overall plays per drive. Again, play, play volume generally down last year. We kind of talked about this beforehand, thinking a lot of that has come from the average field position changing via the kickoff rules the last couple seasons. I know as well on the most recent me and a Kimes pod Nate Tyson mentioned that it was the longest time between plays in NFL history last year. So between snaps, you know, the play clock was was dwindling and ticking more than ever before again, another kind of drag on play volume there. So that's something that will hit on consistently as we go team by team here again last year 61.3 plays per game. And for the established around projections this year, we are projecting 61.4 plays per game. And I remember Leoni was always about 63. You guys were always about 63 is the baseline or a little bit above that just like as of like two years ago, right? Absolutely. And looking back at the historical plays per game trends, you know, last in 2024, 62.2 plays per game was the only time it was below 63 since 2018. So this is a pretty new trend and something that we are leaning into quite a bit this year. Again, only projecting, you know, slightly more plays than they had last year. So don't have it rebounding too much. So very, very interesting. Gretches we go through each division and each team here kind of how that plays out alongside where you end up on a on an average play for game scenario there. And one of the big I tried to figure this out and I've done some writing on it this off season. One of the big numbers and we were sharing a little bit of notes and we're both looking at this profile reference season by season page. This the scoring percent column, which is the percent of drives that end in a score is way up the last two years. 35.5% of drives just back in 2023 when you were talking about the number of plays last was over 63 plays per game. It got all the way up from 35.5 to 38.8 in 2024. Then 39.5 this year, the number of drives coming way down, but there's more scoring per drive and that that's to me the effect of the kickoff rules that you mentioned. We're seeing a higher starting average fuel position and we're seeing longer fuel goals. The kickers being able to bang from like 60 yards out, you have like more scoring per drive. I also will get into this more as we talk about one of the teams today. Karen line and like I think they're a great example of this, but I think we have teams that when they get blown out because of the longer seasons and like player health stuff are more willing to just throw on the towel like Caroline last year. We didn't get garbage time points out of them. So that's an interesting thing. We'll talk about with them, but you get these long this higher rate of scoring percent per drive and then potentially a bigger blow out earlier in the game and then teams kind of packing it in versus 10, 20 years ago when we started, we get more garbage time or fun, the NSE production, even if a team was down by multiple scores. Yeah, and another thing that Mark, you mentioned with the pace being down. I just want to throw out a couple more numbers. Just comparing the 2025 season to 2023. If you look at motion rate, which obviously would slow down pace, motion rate in 2023, league, why was 51 percent this past year? The average motion rate was 59 percent. That coincided with the seconds per play being up from 27.4 to 28.6. We'll kind of get into this as we go on a micro level team by team, but we discussed pre-show some of the new younger OCs and the impact that they have on the league. I think you're seeing that the increased motion rates is kind of leading to a slower pace as well there. No doubt. It may sound a little bit elementary to kind of talk through like decimal point changes in place per game, but ultimately when you are projecting out a full season, the number one thing is, okay, how many plays per game are we expecting for this team? Then from there, you get into the pass rate, rush rate, all the things that stem off that. That is a key number for us to get dialed in and certainly kind of given the trends of the NFL. Try and have a great grasp on not only what happened last season, but trying to read the two leaves and where we can project and anticipate this going into future seasons. That takes me to our, I think, second biggest macro point that has been talked about ad nauseam since the middle of last season with the Rams adopting this heavier personnel multiple tight ends sets approach on offense. We saw this continue throughout the NFL draft with a lot of blocking first tight ends, drafted in the second and the third round team seemingly altering their offense of personnel strategy to a heavier personnel base. This ultimately comes down to offenses trying to take back the power and kind of dictate to the defense. What scheme and what personnel the defense has on the field so the offense can better draw up anticipatory offensive plays from that take advantage of what the defense is throwing out there. Typically we've seen heavier personnel, groupings from offense lead to defenses reacting with more base personnel, so more linebackers on the field, less defensive backs. The Rams specifically threw a lot out of their 13 personnel sets and kind of had some advantages with their tight ends athletic tight ends against slower linebackers rather than defensive backs. That is something that we have considered for a vast majority of the teams in the league is okay, does their draft decisions lead us in a certain direction in terms of what personnel they're going to be playing, how does that trickle down target share wise, pass rate wise in terms of what the offensive coordinator what we expect them to do out there on the field. And again, this is this is being discussed throughout all all circles of the NFL. not just not just finished football, but also, you know, the standard NFL content. You'll get out there as well. So, you know, again, we think offensively having the personnel groupings out there is to dictate the defense. But there's also that that aspect and we hit on this a little bit in a in a pre show called too of like, okay, sure, the offense can condictate personal groupings and and hope that the defense responds accordingly. But what happens if the defense doesn't exactly respond the way the offense is anticipated. And how does that impact the kind of the deployment of these personnel groupings? So, Gretchen want to toss it your way a little bit to see if you have any any kind of further comments on this heavy personnel trend and meta analysis as as we've gotten into or as you've gotten into, you know, projecting these individual teams so far. I said, well, you know, you know, I have some additional comments because we talk for you show and I was like, man, how are we going to talk about this quickly at the beginning of the show, but or we were discussing that and I had a ton. I've written about this a bunch of people who want more on it, check out my my sub sack as far as thinking about projecting it forward and how it impacts the projections and all of that. The big thing that I have wanted to emphasize as I've talked about it this off season is I think a lot of people are seeing the way the offense is moving and they're seeing all these additional tight ends and they're saying, oh, teams are going to run a lot more multiple tight ends sets and those things. That is the the focus of the league's offense is this off season. I think that's very clear. If you look at the draft and some of those things you mentioned, the league's defenses are also spending time this off season trying to cope with better answers for for offenses that want to throw out a heavy tight end formations. This is the league's evolutionary cycle. Everyone always wants to talk about the offensive counter punch these days. That's not really how the or the only way that it works. The defense is also evolving even though they're ahead right now and they've continued to do some better things over the last several years. Some stuff in the front seven different like pass rush stunts and things. I've been hearing from better ball knowers than me about how it's really complicated protections over the last year or so. Like that was one of the big stories of 2025 right through to the Super Bowl. So the sea ox doing it a bunch and getting a ton of pressures. But my my main thought as far as the projections and going forward is we're sort of always chasing that last evolutionary shift and it's not the way to think about evolution. That's what this sport is constantly evolving. We're not at an end point people I see that mistake so much people want to think about evolution as if we are right now at the end like oh we got here. The answer is multi tight end sets. We're not we're at a point on a timeline and things are going to continue to evolve. One of the things I was saying to you guys pre show that kind of doesn't concern me but as I think is a possibility and the wide range of things that could happen next is defenses find good answers for passing out of heavy tight end formations right away early on in the season and that becomes like a clear league wide meta thing just like the cover to shell was a league wide meta thing in 2021 2022 and change things. And if defenses find those answers early we might see offenses just decide right away. Well I mean if we don't get the advantage of the getting them into base defenses and all of this stuff and then we get the positive pass advantage we might as well just get our wide receivers back on the field because they're the better receivers anyway and we may see the heavy tight end formations kind of go out of like mid season in the regular season this year that quickly and that's it. There have been little mini trends like that that have been found out quickly over the evolution of the sport something that I've done a lot of writing about the macro stuff over the years and think is really fascinating for fantasy football and probably one of the edges out there that doesn't get discussed as much but we are going to be looking at a lot of teams that are going to move toward an offensive focus of more heavy tight end stuff because there are offensive personnel things and we're going to discuss that and as you project them it's less concentration in the targets it's all I mean all that stuff's going to be very very vital as we talk about we want the teams that are going to be concentrated that are going to give all the volume to certain guys that's what we look for the bottom line you know at the end of the day the bottom line fantasy football is a volume base game and so that that is a very important thing to keep in mind if these teams are doing the rotational stuff that you know we've seen from a lot of offenses over the last several years Sean Peyton is a great example has always done this the Broncos always rotating routes in a way that's like not fantasy friendly we might have more offenses like that certainly absolutely and you see a top offensive mind like Sean McVey kind of leading leading this trend last season it does feel like other teams are are going to try and copycat that but who knows how successful they are going to be in emulating McVey's process both in terms of scheme and in the players and kind of you know coaching and instruction that goes alongside with implementing these new strategies offensively so great breakdown there Gratch super super excited to see how that plays out throughout this season and how ultimately correct we are in trying to anticipate these changes and in our season long projections and and handling those with that all being said let's get into the projections here a little bit once again you know we're going to be going team by team here Leoni has mentioned in previous years and I do want to reiterate once again that ultimately like when we're going through kind of these raw target numbers carry projection numbers we tend to be ultimately a little bit lower than Gratch in terms of kind of like the raw volume that we give to players we are baking in some unlisted target shares 14s especially you know we're recording this episode towards the end of June here we're trying to let the off season play out a little bit so we have some unlisted target shares rushing shares baked in on teams we're also baking in you know probably some injury risk for these players not necessarily projecting a full 17 game season whereas as Gratch tends tends to be a little bit more optimistic on on that lens as well a good point from the from the perspective of what are you trying to do with the projection I think you guys are going to be way more accurate obviously what I'm trying to do is with my projections is basically figure out what I think it more like a week one projection looks like over the course of the year but we know it's a moving target with player health and those things and so it's more like what is the team trying to do what's a baseline in a perfect world for them but a lot of teams are going to have to adjust the things that are not going to go perfectly that's the way that the season goes. Yeah and that was going to be my next point there as well is just wanting to distinguish a little bit between projections and how those equate directly to fantasy rankings you know at ETR we have a base projection for players and then pair them each with the ceiling outcomes that kind of help build in bull cases from you know young rising players rookies who may have more end of season upside and more of an untapped ceiling you know and vice versa for veterans who may have a stronger base volume case but not as strong of a ceiling outcome at this point of their careers and again you know as Gretchen alluded to he probably baked more so bakes his upside case into the base numbers directly so those reflect when we're when we're going through those raw numbers here and I've always thought it was great you know kind of going through player by player if there's ever a player we're higher on volume wise then Gretchen that's always an interesting signal if we may be that much more bullish on a player again just just given that Gretchen's numbers typically trend a little bit hotter than ours. All right let's get started here in the NFC South and we are going to start out with the Tampa Bay Bucket Neers not only one of the most exciting teams to talk through in the NFC South but I honestly think across the NFL here as the bucks are on their third different offensive coordinator and play collar in three years here as Zach Robinson comes over from Atlanta we also have the Mike Evans departure to San Francisco first time you know pretty much in my lifetime certainly projecting the NFL that Mike Evans will not be a Tampa Bay Bucket Neers so I think that's a pretty massive shift to talk through here as well for Tampa Bay on the team level projections here for the bucks we had ETR at 61.7 plays and a 60.1 percent pass rate here for the bucks Gretchen's a little bit higher on place for game at 63.2 and a little bit lower on the pass rate at 59 percent so coming in I think with you know a relatively sizable gap there in plays per game at 1.5 added to Gretchen's play volume there so you know Gretchen how about you talk about Zach Robinson coming over from Atlanta and maybe why you think you're a little bit more optimistic on the play volume here for the bucks and his first season yeah and I think you said third year in a row with a different play collar I believe it's the fifth year in a row because even before we have been because we had canalists for a year before that and I think it was I can't remember Byron left wish before that Robins Zach Robinson who they brought over was with Liam Cohen on the 2022 Ram staff and that's where Cohen got hired over to the bucks and then Robinson got hired to the Falcons but now has landed with the bucks that Cohen was the coordinator here obviously before taking the Jigs job and that was the really successful bucks season in 2024 last year everything kind of went the wrong direction I think pretty clearly the decision to bring back to bring in Zach Robinson is to trend back more towards that Liam Cohen 2024 season Robins and Atlanta teams they've been pretty run heavy the past couple of years but I think maybe by necessity a little bit and just kind of personnel and those things like we were talking a lot of these trends are going to be dictated by who you have you have B. John Robinson you're going to run the ball a little bit more probably I'm not really reading too much into the bucks last year lower play volume and run rate which is mostly because of personnel issues this is a team that got injured more than like any team in the league the O line stuff get 11 different guys log snaps and only two played more than 12 games worse was injured a bunch their other tackle I don't forget how to say that Luke got a got a key get a key whatever he was out a bunch and they had to play that rotational line meant tackle heck is it man I don't know the line yeah Charlie heck Charlie heck who was like had a horrible pf grade and I remember people in season talking about like you can't go from worst down to heck you can't go farther from, you know, how good they are at tackle to how bad they became they this year. And then and then Cody mock their he was a sixth best guard and pass blocking who play among 38 who played a thousand snaps in 2024. He played just two games hundred and thirty eight snaps in 2025. So they lose a really high level guard as well. Like they're offensive line. ton of ton of turn over ton of injuries. They're not sorry, not turnover, ton of injuries and attrition last year. And then you think about the skill position players. Evans played eight games. Godwin played nine games. Try to return week four week five had to sit out another six weeks. Bucky played 10 games. And those are your three key guys going into the year. They all miss like half the season. And so they had so much on the offensive line and in the skill position room that wasn't there that as far as like the team level trends. And then they still ran 62.8 plays I have in my numbers. So they still were a little bit above average. I do think some of that's a Baker may feel thing. He tends to be a little bit erratic. We talked about teams playing slower last year. But Baker will be like in late game situations. This is a team that will play aggressively for the most part. Or at least I think they will. This is something Leoni and I have talked about a ton over the years. Whether it's the OC, whether it's the quarterback. I remember like you and I always feel like the Cowboys stuff was more daq driven. I think Baker is who he is. And you're going to get a certain type of aggression. And so that's that's where I came in with the above average plays per game. They have a decent Vegas win total like basically roughly a 500 team. I do have them as a slight pass or sorry, slight negative PR OE slight run lean in the in the pass rate thing relative to I use the Vegas win told to do like an expected pass rate. So I have them about minus 1.5% relative to that expected. The teams in Atlanta last couple years on a Robinson have tended to be even more than that. So that's more towards neutral. I could definitely see your guys as pass right being more accurate. But I do think the tempo thing I'm curious I want to hear like why why you guys wound up. I mean, I guess this is probably close to your league average at 61.7 but like closer to league average. Yeah. So we're actually just at algorithm at our algorithm on bucks plays on which should take into account, you know, Baker's history and we're kind of leaning into more of last year. I guess you'd say with Zach Robinson because pace wise, they were a little bit faster in 2024 and then closer to average last year. And so between all the OC changes, we're basically just leaning into what our algorithm has which breaks into account. The bucks history with Baker as well as as well as their win total there. Yeah, certainly could be a spot we could potentially come up a little bit. I know there's definitely excitement around the box offense this year and kind of a little bit of a bounce back for Baker Mayfield. So let's go into the Baker Mayfield conversation here currently entering a contract year is Baker. Albert Breer said just a few days ago he'd expect some sort of deal to get done. This offseason likely during training camp Baker career highs across the board two seasons ago in 2024 under Liam Cohen produced overall QB three numbers and fantasy at 22 and a half points per game. Pretty massive season there for Baker, but that came back to earth last year dipped back down to QB 19 and points per game at 16 and a half. Essentially so a six point drop in fantasy point production from Baker year over year there despite his rushing holding from 2024 to 2025. We've seen essentially half of Baker's career rushing yardage come in the last two seasons. This will be his ninth season. So two out of the his eight seasons, you know, he's he's pretty much had half of his rushing production. So I do think that has elevated his floor and I don't necessarily see that changing this year. Jack curious your thoughts on Baker Mayfield if he's viable much in, you know, kind of single QB read Jeff Leagues or more of just a best fall stackable target coming into a season once again with a new offensive coordinator. Yeah, we have a more than the QB to range. Just kind of we have him I think QB 19 on underdog and just kind of looking at our projection verse. Gretch once by where we are a little bit off is on the yards per time for it 7.1. Gretch is at 7.3 Baker's yards per time during his three years in time. I have kind of been all over the place. He was 7.1 under canal. S in 23 up to 7.9 under Cohen in 2024 down to 6.8 last year and I think he was 6.5 yards per attempt after the buy. He was also dealing with I think a non throwing shoulder and a knee injury over the second half of the year. So I want I'm curious if that's where like Gretch is thinking with the higher yards per attempt because we're kind of well our quarterback efficiency flows through our past catcher efficiency. So Evans prior to last year had always been a pretty efficient guy last year. He was kind of I think like 6 yards per target on so that between the loss of Evans and the decreased efficiency last year were a little bit lower than Gretch there. But I wonder if Gretch is expecting like a resurgence under Robinson. I kind of what they had under Cohen maybe we're a little bit too low there if he's going to get that per attempt efficiency back up. Honestly I think this is probably just the effect of me assuming more health at the receiver positions more targets for Ibuka for Godwin for McMillan. If you kind of look down the list like the better players I'm like so my my my efficiency is going to flow through the receivers as well. I wonder if we'll see this a lot like a little bit of a gap for me with the with the quarterback efficiency slightly higher from the perspective that the players that we project to be more efficient I'm projecting more targets for. So it's just going to immediately push up his is YPA and a little bit higher on that side. The rushing thing you mentioned dank is a is a pretty interesting one. This is a weird one because Baker had never run for more than 200 yards at any point in his career until 2024. Then it was like oh career highs across the board and like you say he backs it up and I mean we usually see the opposite as guys reach 30 QB they're running less I mean he's a he just turned 30 last year he just turned 31 here in April. But he's suddenly like adding like doubling his previous career high in rushing yardage more than doubling each of the last two years the previous career high just randomly I'm going to run for twice as many rushing yards and just be like a way higher scramble rate guy. But one of the other things with with Baker you mentioned not having Evans and I think that's a big one when I went through this as we as we move into the position players when I went to the receivers I basically without Evans really high receiving TD rate I had a lot of I was way low on the team touchdowns so I use a look ahead lines and have like a little expected touchdowns formula and I was like multiple touchdowns low in my initial run and I realized it was because Baker's TD rate was lower than like any of his previous three years which is basically because I didn't have Mike Evans who like it's always like how higher you get a project Mike Evans touchdown rate is it going to be like 8%. You take that out and suddenly Baker comes in way low which to me on the receivers made an interesting thing where I was like okay well I got a project somebody to catch touchdowns for this team score touchdowns for this team so they're running backs have had really big receiving TD rates over the years I wound up putting some of them toward the backs but obviously that's going to be huge for a booga it's going to be huge for for God when Macmillan anyone else in this past game but one last time on Baker I again I just think having a healthier align this I have a looking at a few different sources I'm waiting for for Brandon Thorn's great piece I was talking to you guys before and that'll be coming in July but I'm checking some other sources on the online stuff I'm not an online guru but most sources think that a healthy box a line will be top 10 so that's the other thing about Baker I think just having a healthier align could be pretty huge for his efficiency as well. If the Baker rushing does step back you know it is a bit of an anomaly the last two years maybe if he does get a contract extension this off season maybe that could change his behavior a little bit in terms of his willingness to scramble then you have the Mike Evans you know departure potentially bringing down the TD rate so we also kind of map our touchdowns to future team total so certainly kind of in line with you Gretz there right now you know we have Baker projected to throw 26 and a half touchdowns you're about 28 and a half so a little bit higher than us on on the TD rate there for Baker but also a little bit higher and attempts just overall to with your play volume gap on him but you know maybe maybe the floor could drop out a little bit from Baker if the rushing does kind of come back to his previous career levels and then and then the touchdowns don't get replaced by other players you know outside of Mike Evans you know maybe just an overall step back there so kind of an interesting profile here for Baker as he enters his age 31 season let's head to the running back room here though a lot to discuss as well yet Bucky Irving entering his third season the buck signed Kenneth Gainwell this off season to a two year fourteen million dollar deal and then Sean Tucker returns on a one year three and a half million dollar deal so very quickly Bucky Irving is is the third highest paid running back in this room yet expected to be the starter once again kind of an interesting profile here for Bucky because in the middle of last season or Sean Tucker had nine carries from inside the the five yard line Rashad white only at eight Bucky had zero carries inside the five yard line last year and then he brings in Kenneth Gainwell or the Bucks bringing Kenneth Gainwell who you know just set had 85 targets last year with the Steelers clearly profiles as their pass down back so Jack and curious how you're viewing this kind of three headed committee here for the Bucks with Bucky you know if he doesn't have the goal line role or pass pass game role where where we exactly seen his fantasy outlook fall into place here. Yeah and it's kind of in a way. weird offseason for Bucky where Todd Bulls set a couple of weeks ago that he would return from the shoulder injury sometime in the summer fall and then like two weeks later he's doing on field work at OTA so it seems like that was a little bit of maybe a conservative projection out of Bulls but I think the big thing with Bucky is where do the high value touches come from like you said Sean Tucker out carried him inside the five year line nine to zero last year they routing Kenneth Gainwell to fill the overshot white pass catching roll and so we have a hundred and eighty eight carries for Bucky we have five point four touchdowns he only had one touchdown on a hundred and seventy three carries last year Gretches actually higher on his carries but lower on his touchdowns he has two hundred eighteen carries and five point two touchdowns we do have Bucky's touchdown stuff like pretty doc relative to where your average running back around his volume would be but Gretches projection combined with the Tucker verse Bucky goal line gap last year is almost making me think we could go further and then you know if Kenneth Gainwell takes over on a lot of the pass downs I do think that the path to a high value touch role is pretty tenuous for Bucky with that being said the market is also quite aware of that and as of now we're higher than market very slightly on underdog on Bucky Irving we have him fifty of overall the market is three spots lower I think part of that is the market reacted to the the bulls-quad and the shoulder kind of fun whereas we have the ability to you know adjust that stuff right away the market takes a little bit of time so we have Bucky in the fifth round the market is even more conservative than us but I do think that the market is is correct in assuming there is a pretty scary path to a to low high value touches for Bucky in twenty twenty six which you get into the the dead zone stuff which we can obviously talk a ton about both you and I but I had the exact same read and so you you mentioned how I have the lower thing in my notes so the high value touches obviously the receptions the the touchdown equity I've had this term trap back like I'm written about the high value touches the past our buddy Pat Carane actually came up with that one but it stands for trivial rush attempt percentage it's basically means like what percentage of your touches are going to be like between the twenty's carries as opposed to the receptions and the like the the goal the red zone green zone type stuff that are going to be way more valuable for touchdown production we know running back ceiling comes from the catches in the touchdown production I have my notes some real trap concerns for Bucky I mean he's been a really good receiving back I had some some notes on him I don't have right in front of me but his miss tackles force per reception I mean he's that really good evasion stuff all the way back to college the long view stuff on him is great in terms of his ability to like make guys miss in a space but particularly in his first two years his his miss tackles force per reception have been like I think it's over point four per catch that gets it's a massive amount he's his eight odd has been like minus two both years and he's still like a seven plus yards per target back which the average is like six and he's you know he's catching the ball on average lower than the most most backs are going to be closer to zero or negative one he's catching it you know deeper in the back field and he's still generating more basically his yuck after the catch really really strong he's good in the past game they've talked about that a lot but you bring in kind of gain well he's really good in the past game too and that's he's kind of this back that can do everything for you and so I agree with Jack there's some real concerns on the past side but especially on the the goal line side there was a comment in the coach speak index discord from may Zach Robinson was talking about Sean Tucker as a short yardage guy very specifically and then his next mention was kind of gain well as good in short yardage and then he throws in Bucky third and he go with the note that he says he can throw his face in there too and it's just like he's they've been talking about Bucky like as the starter like Todd bowls has been clearly he's the one a kind of gain well as the one B like we Bucky's our guy Bucky's our guy and then you get into the the goal line stuff and you're like yeah Bucky's the afterthought and I mean it just it stuck out to me and Tucker's had you know the if they're talking about him as a short yardage guy and he's had that role as you mentioned he said way more carries in close I mean I I'm projecting Tucker to basically have that role and then they were talking about gain well being effective at that last year for the Steelers which he was and so now to me like as you know Bucky's concerning I've taken him in in a couple of the I haven't done a ton of drafting as we'll get you know probably discuss at some point but I've taken him in a couple of drafts because his price does seem so palatable like you were talking about but I still I kind of wonder if he is just a trap and then relative to that gain well they've been nothing but a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game. So I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game. So I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game and I think it's a lot of the stuff that's in the game. So I agree. I think it's a very tough decision. I think the thing I'll say about the past game involvement is that on early downs we'll probably see Baker target him a little bit Sean Tucker is essentially a zero in the past game. He comes into this year with I believe 25 career targets over three seasons. So it should at least all be Bucky and Gainwell in the past game. I'm more concerned over the goal line, but it is a very tough valuation there for Bucky. So I agree kind of small hit big mispotential there for Bucky in the fifth round. I just want to echo what Gretchen mentioned briefly about the off field stuff like it was a really weird situation with Bucky last year where the original reporting on the injury was that it was week to week and then as time went on. He missed like two months. And at one point there was like some implication that there was like some mental stuff going on with him. It's a weird social post at least one year. It was like a whole saga. So if that gets figured out which I mean given that he's not at 100% it seems like it hasn't totally been figured out maybe to this point. But I do I do think that that's worth contextualizing how much his performance dropped off at least on a per carry basis from his rookie or the last year that maybe there was some some other stuff like going on that we aren't totally keen to. Yeah, he's definitely good. Yeah, that's a good point. All right. At wide receiver here again Mike Evans departure kind of headlines the box wide receiver core here they also drafted Ted Hurst in the third round and mecha Buka comes back for his second season a pretty interesting rookie season split for a Buka as he came out of the GHS absolutely on fire with Chris Godwin sidelines. Mike Evans also hurt a little bit during that span as well. So a Buka crush and then towards the end of the season faded a little bit there wasn't a mid season hamstring issue there for a Buka that has kind of landed to a you know a lack of explosiveness there. He says he's 100% heading into his his sophomore season and then Chris Godwin as well coming into his age 30 year last year was was a bit rocky. Ended up missing the first few weeks came back and then only played a gamer to left with a lower fibula injury which is what he suffered to end his amazing season two years ago that that lower leg fracture and ankle dislocation so Chris Godwin coming into his age 30 season tons of volume available here if you look at any like a target per out run splits with Mike Evans off the field over the last two years Chris Godwin has a 29% target per out run over the last two years without Mike Evans at Buka was 28% with Evans off the field last year so these two kind of feel like the alpha target earners in this offense jack how would you hit on a Buka and how reviewing things with him on the bucks this season and then Chris Godwin and you know just just kind of the your feelings on on Godwin's health and the potential upside here as you know as a lot of void targets are gone with with Mike Evans out of the picture. Yeah because I got we bumped throughout this off season on Zach Robinson has been pretty complimentary of him he compared him to Cooper Cop which who obviously he coached on to that historic season in Los Angeles that is of course high praise and not something not any standard we should hold any receiver to but you pointed out it was a weird season the average didn't have targets through the first 14 weeks and and then basically got relegated into a part time role with Mike Evans and Jaylen McMillan back. Agbuka himself said that he had tired legs. At the end of his rookie season, he said that playing the National Championship season at Ohio State and then going right into the draft stuff into the NFL season. He thought that he was worn down by the end of the year and is better equipped into year two. Going into year two is the White receiver one. The big thing with Godwin is that he should be playing in the slot more. This year he was about 50/50 between the slot and outside. Last year, he's historically been much better in the slot throughout his career. But he has played just 16 games over the last two seasons. He's been under eight yards per target and three of the last four seasons, including a career low, 7.1 yards per target last year. There's been some buzz on Godwin recently. I know that internally in our ETR Slack, we discussed bringing him up within the past couple of days and opted not to just because the room was kind of split. I am a little bit worried between the age, the injuries and the decreased efficiency. It looks like Gretch is a little bit higher and has a tighter target gap between Eikbuoka and Godwin than we do there. Yeah, it's a tricky one with the Godwin Evan stuff. And I mean, just the way that he did seem to be featured late last year, I guess maybe I'm underplaying the hamstring thing. I was going to ask you guys for a little bit more on that. You guys are probably a lot more organized on things like that. I don't really remember as much about the Eikbuoka hamstring last year, but his season, like you guys said, very weird. Very weird for a productive rookie to go the opposite way. We know that rookies receivers tend to gain usage and production in the latter half of the year. He went out an average 89 yards per game over his first five games. Then he went over 65 yards one time the rest of the year from week six on. And that was like week, I don't know, nine or something. It was the final eight games he didn't go over 65 yards or scored TD half a season. It was like basically a very average. But if you flip those things, I'm sitting here telling you that this is exactly what you want to see from a rookie. It was pretty good early on. And then he progressed and he was great late. And now I want to be all over this guy. It's really weird to see him go from 85% plus routes early to not clearing 70% in any of the final four games while they're in a playoff push. That's, I should note, I have PFF's routes numbers there. I know there's obviously a lot of different routes sources. I took note of the exact same thing you did with the Cooper Cup comment. And also the 48% catch percentage, like for us, that's just crazy. That's not something we're going to expect to carry over. That's way, way too low. To me, it feels like I wrote in my notes, it feels like the back kind of has to be a boogie. Even if you're like a little bit concerned, I was a little bit more concerned last year doing the show about what he is, was as a prospect and what he is as a long-term player. But Godwin, you have, as you mentioned, 30 coming off career worse per out stuff. The health stuff with him is basically the whole thing. How healthy was he? Last year, probably not. How healthy is he this year? Can he be healthier and get back to what he was pre-injury? Obviously, 2024, he was on his way to a great year. Mick Millen is the other one who missed a ton of time last year, only 83 routes had a good year, but health for him, again, is going to be key. Then you have Ted Hirst, the rookie who played at Valdosta State and then Georgia State. He was productive at Georgia State for a small school guy, High A dot plus a high targets per route. So you get a lot of like, air yards. He was over 1,500 air yards, both of the two years at Georgia State. He's 6'3, 206 tall, but thin, 4'4, 2'40 time. Really good jump, strong, rass athletic player. They're talking about him as like a true ex. They're obviously not expecting him to be Mike Evans, but they're talking about him in the ex-roll that Mike Evans vacates. I don't think he's going to be like a stud right away by any means if you look at the small school stuff and a lot of the other stuff. I do think he's really interesting if he's out there for the reasons Jack said that Godwin can be playing on the slot a lot more. Mick Millen, a lot of people have said, would be better in the slot. So if Hirst isn't out there and they're moving stuff around, how does that work relative to if Hirst is able to play? And even if he's just like what Deonte Thornton was for the Raiders last year, which is basically just a wind sprinter in his rookie year, it's really good for Godwin and Ibuka, I think. And one of the big notes on this team, Zach Robinson, in Atlanta last year was very concentrated. We'll talk about this as we get to Atlanta too, but I think it was the sixth highest target earner on Atlanta last year, had 16 targets, which is something you don't see. When you go through and do projections, and you kind of look at last year's numbers and stuff. And when I say sixth highest, I'm talking about three receivers, one tight end and one running back. Basically, you're standard 11 personnel. You had pits, London, Bichon Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and then David Sills was the other guy. Behind them, sixth on the entire team was Tyler Algier with 16 targets, very concentrated, a lot of like 11 personnel, or if they went out of 11 personnel, they're not using the secondary tight ends or them as like real passing options. And you do have that in the tight end room here as well, with K-Dot and being a guy who's mostly a routes based play at tight end. He's never really earned big targets per route. I do think he's gonna run a ton of routes again. I do think he's gonna get plenty of targets. He's a viable late round tight end. They don't have a lot of competition for him. They have like paying Durham as a blocking tight end. They drafted Bauer Sharp. He's super athletic, but he had a low A-Dot in college. And they're talking about like if he could be vertical and he's not really in the production. I'm kind of a slave to the production profile. Like did he actually do it in college or are we projecting him to do something at the next level that he didn't even do and he didn't do it. He's athletic, but he wasn't a vertical tight end in college. He wasn't very productive at all as a receiving tight end. He's just a very good athlete that maybe is more of a developmental is a sixth rounder. So they don't really have, they've dev and colp who you guys have projected for a few targets here. But they don't really have a secondary tight end. That's a real threat. I do think we're gonna see plenty of three receiver sets here. Even though Zach Robinson's talked about some of the multi-titan stuff, he had a quote about trying to get the defenses to be in base defense. And they're probably gonna try some of that. Ultimately, I do think the targets are gonna be pretty concentrated here, which is obviously favorable. We talked about that at the top. And then the last thing is just the touchdown element, which again, if you wanna go back to the running backs, that was when something was something I wanted to mention. But if you wanna be on a bucky, maybe you're playing the receiving touchdowns a little bit or gain well because Bakers, like Rashad White had really high receiving TDCs and think a couple years ago, he's thrown, when he asked, sort of Tucker, talkers out of decent receiving TD rate and then Bucky had one, I think a couple years ago as well, a decent receiving TD rate. But was assuming the backs are only gonna catch maybe like six or seven of them. There's a lot, oh man, my kids would kill me for that. There's a lot of, there's a lot of receiver touchdown production to go around. I don't think Aughton's a huge threat there either. So I came out of this projection, feeling like Ebuca was the clear play and then probably more optimistic as you noted on Godwin than I kind of went in 'cause I'm like, if Hurst is the third receiver, if they're in a lot of 11, Aughton's not a huge target or not tied in. There's probably a lot on Godwin shoulders. If it's not him, then maybe it's McMillan, but there's gotta be somebody else. - 100% and Godwin is someone I kinda think is a big hit, small mistype of player, again, assuming health. I really think the volume should be there for Godwin, certainly the age getting up there, above 30 isn't necessarily something we love to see, but as Jack alluded to, we should see him more in the slot this year, Jalen McMillan, only four games last year, but was 80% out wide. Ameca Buka, more of like a kind of two thirds out wide, one third in the slot. So I think those three are the pretty heavy favorites that's to be the three wide receiver set there. And again, just on the Zach Robinson personnel usage point. In 2024 with the Falcons, he led the league with 11 personnel usage at 87% coming from 11 personnel. That was the year where Ray Ray McLeod was the Falcons third wide receiver. And it was like all three of Ray Ray McLeod, Drake London and Darnal Mooney were in the top 20 in the NFL, just amazing volume upside, if it ultimately does condense on those wide receivers. I do think Ted Hurs is probably the wide receiver for there could fill in a little bit on the outside, but for the most part, the top three wide receivers for the Bucks, I've been aggressively targeting and best ball drafts. Do you think McMillen will play outside mostly? I do. Again, just mostly given how he was deployed last year, 80% out wide. And then if you kind of put Goblin back in the slot, then I think that is certainly the most likely outcome that McMillen gets mostly out wide. How much was the out wide, his rookie year? 70 McMillen, 72%'s rookie year. Yeah, so it's going to be okay. Because he only ran 83 routes last year. So the 80% to me, obviously, like a little bit. But that's, so he was out wide a lot as a rookie too. I remember the book on him coming out of college was that he was better in the slot. Like a lot of the film people had that on him. But if they like him out wide, then that's great. He's been really efficient as well. Eight touchdowns in his rookie year. And then last year, again, only four games, but caught 12-15 targets. So supposedly has that rapport built in with Baker. He's going pretty late in drafts. I, again, I do like him as a wide receiver three target there, especially if we are, if we miss out on Godwin, or just a little bit more hesitant on Godwin's health outlook for this season. And then Kadehaten, since the start of the 2024 season, has 834 routes with Baker at quarterback. That's more than 200 more than the next coach's player who is Sterling Shepherd for the Buccaneers, believe it or not. Just kind of goes to show how banged up this wide receiver core has been the last couple of years. And we have kind of seen some spike games out of Kadehaten, Bye. Completely agree. He's more of just a routes base play and if there are some injury or attrition in the wide receiver group That's that's mostly where Kate oughtn shines on us So I think he is is a big target and and read draft leagues or anything more so a best ball stacking candidate there All right, let's have to I like that. I'm a villain though. Who else is it gonna be? I mean test Johnson Box 65 so can what like we Right and they they face out test pretty pretty big time last year when McMillan came back They really yeah McMillan easily took that lead right away even though Tez had like a pretty solid season all things since they're up to that point Yeah, I mean the thing on her is if you look at like basically any of the more film-based Analysis on hers that everyone seems to think he's like a super rod of elemental prospect and he's gonna have a tough time going from Georgia state to the NFL So I think kind of like if he is playing the X I know Zach Robinson said he's like a natural X I think it would be more of like a sacrificial type of role on where he's just spacing spacing the field Um in McMillan's day I who could like actually maybe carve out a role and get targets It seems like it has to be one of a boot good godwinner McMillan or two of right and then like Like even if Godwin goes down then then it gets hurts on the field I still agree with you I think he's still sacrificial and then it just makes McMillan That much more interesting alongside of Buka no doubt all right Let's head to our second team of the division here again Bucks were a very interesting team to talk through both both in the backfield and and the wider receiver core So nice nice in depth long breakdown there. Let's head to the Saints where Tyler Schuck enters his sophomore season under Kellen Moore here You know one of the fastest teams in the NFL actually the fastest team in the league in terms of pace last season both overall and in neutral Pace that is you know average seconds left on the play clock when the ball is snapped there for the Saints That led to just the ninth most plays for the or the 11th most plays for them last year They also finish eighth and pass rate this year coming into the season The ETR projections have the Saints at 62 plays per game and a 61 and a half percent Pass rate Gretches also higher here at 63 and a half plays has that same 59 percent pass rate as he had for the bucks here So once again a play and a half a little bit head of us here on the Saints and the Saints are I think a clear team where the play volume could spike a Little bit You know again early here just on the first couple teams that might be inclined to maybe bump the Saints a little bit Just just given all the signs we've seen from Kellen Moore also have invested in the offensive line Now you ideally have you know a little bit of a step forward from Tyler Schuck in a second season They add Travis H& to the backfield here and then spend the eighth overall pick on Jordan Tyson So you know the Saints I think are are Not quietly becoming you know like the the the the public's favorite sleeper team at to target and fantasy drafts This offseason I can certainly see why here so Jack any thoughts here on way me why me may be a little bit lower Place per game why I just given like kind of the pace we saw from Kellen Moore and how we're expecting that to translate to a second season Yeah, I don't think there's any questions on the pace I think the real question is just the competency of the offense if you Mean like you said they were easily the fastest team in the league last year Kellen Moore is just like a well-known pace merchant So they're gonna play fast Once Schuck became the starter They were 24th in the league in UPAPer play over the last month of the season They were 16th but they played the Panthers Jets Titans and Falcons in the last month So they were 11th in real place per game last year I think if they can become like in above average offense They do have a real chance to lead the league in place per game It's just whether they can be in above average offense that would require shut shut taking a step forward They you know they did their anything drafting Jordan Tyson if they want to help the offense and moving that direction This year I will also add that we don't have like a monster range on place per game I'm curious to see as we get like more into this if That ends up being something that we see us something like a tighter range on place per game and grids having a wider range Plays are just kind of difficult to project predict although maybe more on a weekly basis than a seasonal basis so we have I think we have the highest team the league around 63 point something plays per game And I can pull it up. Yeah 63.6 in the lowest round Right near 59 on so we just don't have a huge range on place per game We do have the Saints as as an above average team in terms of play volume though Yeah, I'm probably too too Wide on that stuff. I've done some back testing on on my projections in the past and found that I've been really far off on a lot of that stuff It's it's tough to project the the the pace like really far off on I was trying to figure out how many teams I actually like had dialed in when I when I whatever my projection was and The two times that I've done this in my in my career. I it was like I think exactly like 16 out of the 32 teams that I miss by at least like 50 or 100 either passes rushes or plays and often it's because of like a major injury or something that shifts you know a lot of the assumptions but At other times I'm getting like a bunch of spam calls from Google At other at other times You're just wrong. You're just wrong on some of your assumptions and things. It's not easy to do they were at 63.2 plays per game last year I part of why I'm at 63.5 and even higher is I New they were gonna be fast paced last year I was looking at my my numbers from last year and I still under sold them because I thought I wrote in my notes like how fast can you actually be based on the competency of the quarterback play right and so you have a second Your quarterback and rattler or you have a rookie in Shaku's not like a high profile rookies a second rounder and they still came in Meaningfully above average despite having two different quarterbacks play and the you know the first starts of Shucks career Then note you made about the the opponents so my my big question for you guys was gonna be explained to me all the type of Shuck hype because I got yelled at by Saints fans get really mad at you on social if you try to claim that he's not like the clear franchise Savior quarterback going forward This team scored 28 touchdowns last year for the entire season like I don't I don't understand I got the other projection and I was like way lower than What their look ahead line suggest which by the way that look ahead lines are not even that optimistic They have the second easiest schedule by look ahead data and they still only have a 7.5 Vegas win total like the market Doesn't agree with you the Tyler Shuck is some second coming of Brett Farve or whatever you think he is like you are drew breeze or the Saints fans need to get a grip. I'm sorry. We're only on team two, but I'm I'm a little bit But this is this is a fantastic Offense for fantasy as you said it was extremely concentrated last year as well in the beginning of the year Shaheed played nine games before getting traded Brandon cooks played 10 Through week nine before they got rid of those two guys a lave juan Johnson Camera and those two Again, basically your standard 11 personnel three receivers a tight end and a running back where the only guys on the team Who had more than 10 targets at that point of the season Devon Vela was six on the team had 10 targets at that point I love I had 87 she he'd had 66 juan 56 and then you you know work down like they're again And silvery guys not getting anything on this offense It's our our second team But the second one where we do need to talk about this concentration element and so important we talk about extreme concentration plus up tempo pace I almost don't care who your quarterback is But I am a little bit concerned about the the team strength So that's interesting to see that that's where jack started because I feel like I honestly felt like I was gonna come in below Because I'm hearing a lot that's like more optimistic about this offense I went a little higher on the play volume because we are going into year two you get a whole off season with shock Are you gonna be able this calmer going to be able to really push this lever harder this year? But again when I got down with my projection I was lower on the touchdowns than what my formula said and I had like bumped some of Shucks like past TD raid and some of that stuff I got I had to come back through and Basically had to project shock for more touchdowns and I wanted to I ended up bumping his rush TD rate as well I had regressed it quite a bit. It was very high last year and ultimately I'm like well Yeah, I mean if they're gonna score a bunch of touchdowns more than I'm guessing then probably he gets a few more rushing touchdowns So I get why he's an interesting Fantasy quarterback. He's mobile. He's got a big arm. He can get to all the areas of the field You know one of the things that saints fans get really mad about is when you say he's 26 They will in unison tell you that doesn't matter anymore the point about that is we have a lot of data in a lot of different ways across a lot of positions Maybe not as effective at quarterback But I'd still think it's important that the younger the prospect the more likely they are to develop and hit a higher ceiling as they progress The fact that he's 26 is relevant to me that I Don't think of like I was comparing him to Jackson Dart and people are getting really mad at me They said that he's clearly better than Jackson Dart well Jackson Dart was 21 last year as a rookie that suggests more room to develop to a higher ceiling as he progresses if he hits in a meaningful way I think shock can be a high floor type of player at quarterback I'm not trying to say he sucks or anything. I do think you have to factor in the advanced age element in terms of a potential cap Sealing at what he is and then recognize that even though we had some good rate stats. He wasn't incredible last year The offense wasn't incredible Except for that late stretch Jack talked about when they played complete walkovers for the last four or five games Absolutely, and you know, we are a little bit behind the market on on Tyler Shuck. He's going at quarterback 20 right now on both underdog and FFPC were at more like quarterback 22. So just a little bit behind there are our raw projections for Tyler Schuck between Gretchen, ETR are nearly identical. We're within 10 pass attempts of each other. Gretchen a little bit higher on the completion rate, 1.3% higher, which leads to about a 200 yard higher projection than we do. But ultimately, near one decimal point on the touchdown projection, we have 23.8, Gretchen 23.7. And then the rushing output as well, nearly identical. Gretchen mentioned he had bumped his rushing TD output. He is half a touchdown higher there than we are. So but nearly identical about as probably as close as you'll see at a quarterback projection here between the two of us. So I think the public sees the quarterback six and fantasy stretch over the last six weeks of the season. They add Travis H. Ann and Jordan Tyson in the draft. So the helium there is I think going to continue with Tyler Schuck. Like I was joking with Pat Thorman. Tyler Schuck is just going to headline every quarterback fantasy sleeper article this off season, just given how the end of the season turned out. And then the weapons they added this off season. I thought we were all going to just agree to keep calling him Travis ETN. Well, gosh. I don't even say the same thing. This is my first podcast in a while. In my head, I've been doing ETN all off season. I still write ETN. I still write ETN in the notes all the time. And just those three letters, just to call them that. I've been bullied by I think it's the athletic pod that that's been calling them. HN. So I mean, I feel a little bit bullied into it, especially with me. My last name is Duncan Bring. I come on to over Zets. Streams. He's called me Duncan Berg. I have to correct them. I got to nip the names. I'm sensitive to correct name pronunciation here. So I'm going to lean into it here for our boy HN. There's already an HN starting running back in the NFL. Like pick another pronunciation. I understand that's what his name is. That's an absurd claim by me. And then you have Trevor ETN for the Panthers. Is he HN now? I don't think so. It's tough out there for us, fantasy analysts. All right. It's tough. Let's head to that backfield, though, because this is-- I was really eager to see how Gretch had to split up because this is a conversation we've had now for months, given the signing, a pretty massive contract here for Travis HN, four a year, $48 million contract, $28 million guaranteed. He is now the 10th highest paid running back in the league on average annual value. Funny enough, Alvin Camara is ninth, as he kind of clings to that hefty contract there. And then Alvin Camara largely rumored to potentially retire when he come back to the Saints. Whereas that all going to stand. And so Gretch here, we have Travis HN at 222 carries. You're at 253. We have Camara at 86 carries. You're at 64. So quite a bit lower there. You also have Devin Neal with 64 carries. So the same carrier projection there for Devin Neal as Alvin Camara curious. Just your take there. Is that more kind of baking in the chance that Alvin Camara does not play on the Saints this year? Do you think his role as RB2 is just up for grabs? Kind of given the Saints lack of commitments to him. Where do you stand on the Camara saga? Has it stands on June 22nd here? Well, is it a Camara? I'm pretty sure it's Camara. I believe on those two Camara has said that he and his mom pronounce them differently. So I think it's up to your interpretation. I don't want to say that one. All right. Man, I'm learning a lot of pronunciations that I'm terrible at pronunciations as we'll learn. I'm going to probably say Camara and ETN, because that's just the way that I've always said it in my head. But the way that I'm projecting this with Camara is-- well, number one, as I bring the T-Leaves throughout the offseason, I don't think they want him back. But I think they're in a really tough spot where he is such an important player to their whole franchise and their city and their community that he wants to be back. And they'd have to basically cut him and eat a bunch of dead money. It's so hard to justify. So they kind of don't have an out. You can't just treat a franchise icon that way. But they've talked up all the way down to like, Audric Estimay. I think they would really like-- especially if Kendra and Miller's healthy, they would really like to have Neil Kendra and Estimay as sort of their three-- you can't carry five back. So they're going to have to cut someone that they don't really want to cut. I think they like Estimay as more of a bruiser and then Neil and Kendra and Miller as more of you do everything back up. Now that you brought in E.T. Henni, you're kind of in a tough spot. The Camara thing, the evasion stuff had really cratered. Yards after contact stuff had really cratered. It was bad again last year. His Yards per carry all the way down to 3.6, which is obviously not the best at, but the peripherals support that. But then last year, also the receiving stuff, which had still been good through 2024, it craters. He has a 0.78 yards per round. First career season below 1.5. So basically half as many yards per round as his previous worst season. Even as a pass catcher, I see his best days behind him. I think he's a really, really tough decision from the perspective of what I was saying about some of the commentary about the other backs throughout the year. I think he's going to be on the team. And I think they're going to use him if he's on the team because they kind of have to. But I kind of feel like it's going to be, give him touches when games are at a hand or in not very important spots because they kind of just have to get him some work. Keep him happy. I think it's going to be kind of a tough storyline, honestly. And I don't think the skill level is probably there. He's definitely, I think, on the downslope at the end of his career. So that's why I'm projecting him to have a little bit of a smaller role. I'm projecting a pretty decent sized role for Devon Neal. But I have those two guys at the same number of Russia attempts and have Camara getting double the targets. And then some-- And so definitely, I think Camara will get some work in the past game, which is frustrating for ETN's profile as well. And I have a big note here in all red that if there is no Camara, I think you immediately bump ETN's target share, like probably at least a percentage point, if not one and a half. But because I do think that's-- if you're going to keep Camara on the roster, that's where you're going to have to plan some. And some obvious passing situations that throw them away at the backfield a little. I'm probably too hot on ETN's Russia attempt share in this backfield. Didn't really know coming off a big season last year and then a big contract as well. You're going to probably see him get a lot of work. But this is the hardest thing for me in projections. We'll talk about this on every team. How much of a percentage of the running back touches do I give to the number one when I know he's a clear number one? Because it's like-- It really comes down to does he miss a game? Does he miss a few games? How much do they rotate? I don't know. That stuff can change year over year, even if the backups are the same, depending on how the team is approaching different things. So he's a new signing and they're big new player. I do feel like they would play him quite a bit. But again, another one that feels to me a little bit tricky. I had a hard time with the projection, especially if Camara's taken some of the receiving. And you have a 7.5 win total. And you don't have a ton of touchdown equity probably. And you're talking about a guy who a year ago, most people didn't want to be in on because he was coming off a pretty tough 2024. And when you look at the peripherals on ETSN, you see he bounced back from the tough 2024. But you don't have a rebound to the levels of his 2022 and 2023 1400 yard seasons. He got about to 1400 yards again. Like Miss Tackle's Force Portouches, first two years, 0.228, 0.271, comfortably over 0.2, the 1-year approach in 0.3. It goes all the way down to 0.143 in 2024. Last year, it rebounded to 0.19. So you're back up from the low 2024. You're not back to the mid 0.25, the mid between 0.2 and 0.3. The mid 0.3, the mid 0.3. Same thing with yards after a contact per attempt that rebounded. It was closer to his early career numbers. But I don't think that he had as much of a rebound year, I guess, as it looks. And so now I actually think he's maybe a little bit overpriced at that point. We've been a little bit behind market on ETSN, HN, however you want to say it. Just with the signs pointing to maybe Camara more likely to return than not, I think this almost just plays out two ways. If Camara does return, that is, in terms of ETSN takes the massive lower load right up front. And we end up low. And the critics can say, man, how did you not expect ETSN to have the RB1 workload here when Camara is absolutely washed. They gave ETSN 28 million guarantee this four year contracts. How could you expect Camara to eat into his workload? And then on the flip side of that, it's an-- and this is a St. legend. He's coming back for a fair well tour. How would they not include him in the past game? Sherry's fallen off a little bit efficiency-wise. But maybe if you dial back the volume, he can regain some of that burst potentially, and regain some form. So I think it's a fine line between how aggressive to be on ETSN. And I would say I would be pretty surprised if the running back depth here got as many touches as your projecting Gretz just given what we've seen with Kellen more historically leaning more into an RB1 and then a secondary back and not necessarily mixing in three or more, unless he really has to. So I kind of think if Camara returns, it'll be condensed on those two. It's more of a question of, OK, what percentage can HAN really carve out here in this offense? But we are pretty aligned in terms of his target projection. You have HAN 31. carries clear of where we are. And again, we are just kind of higher across the board there on Cameras. So certainly not a projection, I think, is finalized. You know, this could, this could go a number of different ways here with Cameras status in the Saints. But I think as of right now, you know, we're both seemingly a little bit behind on H&N compared to the market excitement around 10. It sounds like. Yeah, that makes sense. Let's head to this wide receiver room. Again, Jordan Tyson drafted with the eighth overall pick here for the Saints, Chris Olave coming off of a massive bounce back season for him. I thought Olave was one of the easiest clicks in fantasy drafts last season as he was going. And like the 70s and 80s pretty consistently. And it was like, okay, if Olave can, can stay on the field, he's going to get a massive target share. And that's exactly what happened. Chris Olave, 156 targets last year. That was the fifth most among wide receivers last season behind only a Jamar chase. I'm on our same brown Pukin, Nekua, in Jackson Smith, in Jigba. So, you know, clear alpha target share there for Chris Olave last two seasons. He's had a clean bill of health. It's led to massive volume and solid efficiency here. So he is dealing with some blood clots that caused him to miss the last game of the 2025 season. He is reportedly on blood thinners. This the summer as well supposed to be off those by the end of June. And no questions necessarily at this time around his his status for training camps. So hopefully it should be good there. But, you know, I think the runway is still pretty clear here for a high volume season. In terms of the target numbers at at wide receiver for the Saints, we are at 132 on Chris Olave, Gretches at 140. And then for Jordan Tyson, we are at 103 and Gretches at 99. So this is the first player that we've run into where we are higher on the raw volume than Gretches and and Jordan Tyson. So Jack talk about our Jordan Tyson stance. Why we're I think probably a little bit optimistic on him maybe first Gretches here as he gets logged into this Saints passing tree. Yeah, I mean Tyson was just a really strong prospect from a production profile standpoint. He broke out as a 17 year old freshman at Colorado on a truly terrible team and then had two more productive seasons at Arizona State. Obviously his college career was very marred by injury and the Saints are managing his reps this off season. He's as of as of this month, he's not even fully participating in every practice. But I don't think as of now there's any reason to be really concerned about his regular season availability. So between that, the draft capital of being a top 10 pick and kind of the condensed target distribution we're expecting here, they've got, you know, Devon Vela as wide receiver three who they kind of inexplicably traded a fourth and a seventh round pick for last year. So they clearly like him. But he's more of like a almost like a blocking type wide receiver who probably doesn't project for that many targets. And then they've got after Vela, they've got Bryce Lance who's kind of like Tedhurst Light in that he's a big super athlete who has a lot long way to go as an actual wide receiver and then Barry and Brown who's mostly just a kick returner. So I think that's kind of where we come in on Tyson. And he's a guy I've actually been trying to to draft quite a bit of. I kind of think between the prospect stuff and the draft capital. I mean, this is the type of guy who really could just be an awesome player. And I mean, I think there's a world in which he's like challenging Olave by the end of the season. And the other thing with Tyson is Olave has a concussion history. And he's on the record saying like he was one concussion away from considering retirement. And that might be a little bit of hyperbally, you know, what the money he's about to get this off season. But I do think there's some like contingent upside with with these guys. Where if Olave or Joanne or someone misses time, the targets really could be pretty incredible for the remaining guys. And a lot of the target discrepancy here, it doesn't necessarily fall from the wide receivers. It looks like we can, you know, do a little cross positional analysis here and bring in Joanne Johnson who is who has a wide receiver in college. So you know, a little bit of crossover there who had a breakout season in his first year with Tyler Schuck last year. Grat you're at 84 targets on Joanne Johnson. We are only at 63. So that is that's the biggest target discrepancy we have on the stands. I'm curious if that kind of kind of leads to your a little bit lower stance on Tyson. Do you see those two kind of directly correlated? How are you seeing? I'm waiting to jump in and make a really firm statement that I'm not intending to be lower on Jordan Tyson. This is very much like some of the ones that we've had with Leonie over the years. I always call him the guy who likes the olds and then I always worry about projecting the rookies too high. So I was 100% doing the projection pushing down Tyson's targets, thinking like I'm too high out of him, too high out of him, too. I have too much of a too narrow of a gap between Olave and Tyson. Olave had 156 targets last year, as you said. This doesn't reflect, I got to talk to the interns. This doesn't reflect where I actually stand on this. I grew with everything Jack said. His profile is extremely interesting. And I gave the very similar take on I think it was on a recent stealing bananas where I think Tyson could really threaten Olave this year. And I don't think people really realize. So Olave is not a ton of volume. Both targets in area are across a variety of quarterbacks and offensive systems. He's clearly just very talented and especially at creating separation vertically down the field. He does have some efficiency issues. He had some efficiency issues in 2025. He's a little bit of struggles a little bit with the yak. He's not actually like very physical after the catch. And sometimes has some drops issues. He's not necessarily very physical at the catch point sometimes. And yet, sorry, that's basically the film breakdown of Jordan Tyson. Everyone says that his yak is terrible. If you go look at the yak numbers in this class, he's very low on that. And also some concerns. Yeah, just concerns generally after earning the volume, but not about the volume earning. Like Jack was saying, when he was a rookie, he had 800 air yards on 167 routes as a true freshman, huge 28.7 percent targets per out on a 17.08. That's massive depth adjusted volume for a true freshman. And then he has over, he only ran 13 rounds in next year. Then he has over, I don't have the number down, but huge air yards total says final two years as well. 31 plus percent targets per out. The eight outs had come back down, but we're still above average for a wide receiver. But the yards per target, especially the final year, not great and kind of pulled down the yards per out run a little bit on that side of it. I always split up yards per out run and the targets per out run and yards per target. You get this same profile of years of guy who creates separation clearly earns volume clearly earns a ton of air yards clearly. And yet struggles a little bit on the efficiency side of it at the other end of it. To me, when I got done evaluating this and looking at it, I was like, the receiver in the NFL that I would compare to Jordan Tyson, too, is Chris Helave. Like they are very similar. You have the concussion concerns that you brought up. You have the blood clots, which seem like they're going to be cleared up. But a lava has had some different things. I had almost rather, I mean, Tyson's got his issues as well with the hamstring, but I'd almost rather bet on the rookie coming in with a top 10 draft capital that they're going to obviously feature. Now, is he going to be a star week one and immediately earn as much volume as a lava? Probably not. But I do think as the season progresses, you may see these guys sort of interchangeably. We had a little bit of that with a lava and she heed at points in the last couple of years. And I was with you. I was very in on a lava's price last year. I think he's overpriced this year or he's not a guy I like to target very heavily in the range that he's in. And I do think that Tyson is a really intriguing play here. Now, as far as John Johnson is concerned, he had career highs across the board last year and routes, targets per route, yards per target, and thus yards per out run. He probably can't do all that again, but it's also not a bad thing that Kevin Moore utilized him that way in his first season. He heard his knee at Buffalo and like, week two or three played through it. He was on the injury report the next two weeks. Those were the only three games all year. He was below 30 yards. I was writing about that a lot and still in signals throughout the year. It made him available on a lot of waiver wires. I picked him up across the board when I got to my fantasy playoffs. There's nobody I had in more managed leagues than John Johnson. I had them in all my FFPC teams because people, I don't think we're tracking that little knee injury early. He was third in the NFL last year in receiving yards at the tight end position. He was one of like I think four or five with a hundred targets. His receptions were down, but because he's more of a vertical guy, he hit on some plays in this offense vertically. Now, they bring in multiple tight ends. This is a team we do expect to go to some more multi-tied end sets. They bring in Noah Fant, they draft Oscar Delp. They've talked in the off season about Delps blocking it. Georgia, I don't get the impression that he's coming for the starting receiving job in year one by any means really. Noah Fant has really never been that dude. He's continued to be this like secondary tight end throughout most of his career. I think the name value of Noah Fant and the draft capital on Oscar Delp has people missing. The John Johnson is like a screaming value. He's going like tight end 23 and again was third in receiving yards last year. You have to regress him an awful lot. I understand Jordan Tyson's there. I understand they added more tight ends, but they don't go into the season this year saying we're not going to use the guy that we used a ton last year just because we added secondary guys. Chuck had success with this dude. I don't think they're going to not use a Lava either to be clear. There's room for a Lava and ju-one. Now, having said that, I do have a bold note here with Tyson there as well as the other rookie receivers, the tight end depth. It's hard for me to see how a Lava and Johnson's target share doesn't take a hit. Interestingly, the hit that I gave, John Johnson's target share, clearly not as much as you guys. I still wind up 20 plus targets ahead of you, but I don't knocked him down a ton from last year. So it's just a matter of how much are we bringing him down. I think he's a value. Yeah, and we're a little bit ahead of the underdog market on Joanne Johnson. Certainly after this conversation, I'm a little eager to potentially bump him up. I agree that the Noah Fanton Oscar Delp additions probably seem a little bit worse on paper than they're likely to be in reality, especially for his receiving projection. And when we talk about like condensed offenses, this was another one that was insanely condensed last year, a lave 156 targets Joanne Johnson 102. The next closest where Alvin Camara and Devon Bailey at 39 each. And the depth still really isn't there. Bailey did have a few good games down the stretch, one she hid and cooks. We're out of the picture, but I certainly think this is one, you know, kind of even going back to the top of man. If the play volume can spike a little bit here with kind of the pace the Saints play with. And then you have the convincing of targets on a lave Tyson and Joanne Johnson. I think they all kind of profile as fantasy targets at this point in time. Yeah, definitely. All right, let's listen to Johnson at the cheaper prices for me. I mean, maybe a lave too. I think the price on a lave is a little tricky with some of the injury stuff, but yeah. Yeah. And that's fair. And we are, you know, a little bit above market on a lave. He's going in the early third round right now, but kind of maybe with that that eighth overall draft capital attributed to Jordan Tyson, kind of your overlap in the profiles of the two and the volume role, maybe not quite being there and kind of the efficiency concerns that you hit on with a lave. You know, I wouldn't necessarily hate maybe dialing that back. So we're a little bit more in in line with market, just kind of given our stance on him as more of an end of two round pick, more so than and probably like the early to mid third round where, you know, it's probably a a little bit better place to target him. Though more we talk about this, I'm just changing Jordan Tyson and Chris a lave's target. I'm going to have him for the same amount of targets by the end of this conversation. Well, and and silver two is also really high on Jordan Tyson has him 51st overall. We we right now have him 58 and half PPR ranks and then silver is also high on Chris a lave the 19th overall. So generally, I think, you know, the ETR Stances is relatively bullish on on these top guys for the Saints. I was planning to save my my Jordan Tyson could challenge a lave for wider seaver one for the overset like take that that no one else believes or whatever. Yeah, yeah, the truth is when when Tyson got drafted, the first thing I put in our slack was could Tyson beat out a lave for wider seaver one and I got like six nose within like three minutes of sending that. But yeah, I kind of like that take rich that by the end of the season it could be pretty close. See, listen to that. Leonie's gone here and the young bucks are taken over. We're going to make Jordan Tyson wider seaver one here. It's great. I mean, I've only done like, I've only done like 12 of my projections so far. So now as we work through this project, I the wheels are off. I can start projecting the workies as high as I want. I don't got Leonie around here anymore. All right. Let's head to the Carolina Panthers here. Third team of the division for us to talk through play caller Brad Idzick. Obviously Dave can Alice the head coach here. This is the one team in the division. I believe that that does not have a change at play caller this season. So certainly interesting to talk through here for Carolina for ETR. We have the Panthers projected at 60.1 plays Gretches at 60.4. We are quite a bit higher on the pass right here 62.1% projected pass rate for us on the Panthers. Gretches at 58.5%. So we finally converge on on the plays projection here, but have a pretty, pretty wide gap in the pass rate here for the Panthers. So that leads us to have Bryce Young projected for higher pass attempt. Mark for then Gretch, but quite a bit lower on the efficiency here. We have Bryce Young at 6.7 yards per attempt. He's been 6.3 over the last two seasons there. Gretches you are up at 7.1 yards per attempt. So I know you kind of said the wider sewers funnel to your quarterback efficiency. But given Bryce Young is at 6.7 0.3 yards per attempt. The last couple seasons, I'm curious on your take here of the 7.1. Where of the 7.1 is that a confidence stance for you? Is that just kind of something that you'll continue to dial in on what's what you're taking on Bryce Young as he enters his fourth NFL season? I believe the true serum take for Jack Miller last year was that Bryce Young's terrible. And I'm on board with that as well. I don't think that Bryce Young is particularly good. I have a note on young that his career high pass yards per game last year was 188. I'm actually projecting a big yards per attempt bump to get to 3,750 yards. And then my note is that it's the best water seevers he's had though. You have McMillan going into year 2. You have the potential for actually a healthy Jalen cocker. And then I think Brazil, if that's one I don't know how to say his name, is an intriguing number three that gets Lee Getoff the field who's one of the least efficient receivers in the entire league. So that I think is going to help your yards per attempt just by you know, addition by subtraction sort of. The pass rate thing is really interesting. I want to circle back to that. I know we're going a little long already. But this is a team that I find very fascinating. My big question for them is like so the way that I have my read on them is that they were run heavy to win low scoring games. And then when they would lose they would basically just give up. This is one of these teams that like as I mentioned in the intro, there's a team that we're going to talk about. They got absolutely destroyed in a lot of the games that they lost. They they had 17 or fewer points 10 times. They were 26 or worst in points yards. Yards per play passing yards and percent of drives at entering a score. There's a playoff team. Seven of their eight wins were by one score. Six were exactly by a field goal. Six of their eight wins by three points. They lost by double digits six times in their nine losses. They went eight nine with a negative 69 point differential. It suggests a far unfair team and a lot of regression and all of that. What's fascinating is they go into the playoffs. They have this eruption. They tie their season high and points with 31. They have their second highest PROE of the year. Second highest total area yards. They still operated a slow pace and we have them. We agree that they're going to be a slow pace team. But now they also have a tough schedule because they have a first place schedule. They have the 30th in look ahead schedule. So my like my big question is like, do they as they regressed as their style of trying to win those scoring or give up? Does that change if they're just bad and not trying to cling to a 500 record? I think part of why they were doing that just giving up and going on in the next season as they were still in contention. But if things look a lot more schedule wise and a point differential suggests they're going to be way worse. Do they do they just throw a lot when they're actually losing which you would expect them to do? They went negative 8% PROE or lower eight times. Like half of their season is like these extreme negative run games including losses where they're expected. Well, I guess they're expected past or it would be higher in losses. But in both cases they were tended to be more run heavy when they were in competitive in games and more run heavy when they were getting their their ran off the field. They were six lowest in PROE for the season. And so I like last year I projected 31st in place per game and they came in under my number. So like I'm going even lower this year you guys are lower than me. I only went with a negative 3% PROE but they were like a lot lower than that. A lot of the season. Another note I have on them and this is a Bryce Young note weeks one and two were two of their three highest ariards totals all regular season. They came out throwing a little bit based on this idea that he closed the season well last year. Jack was correctly pointed out I think in the truth. The other thing that that was mostly smoking mirrors they came out throwing a little bit. I think Dave can also ring did it quickly and hard until you know they did push a little bit in that playoff loss. Like his overall numbers got better but his year two included some really bad numbers early in the year they got him benched in year two before that late season stuff. So like if his full season numbers didn't get better in year three like you'd be really concerned and even that was just like his comp percent was up a bit like his saccharate declined again which was good but again career high pass yards per game last year at one 88 now he didn't have good receiving weapons he had one good rookie receiver and a lot of like injuries and other issues. I think this is a bad team I think it's a bad coat a bad quarterback. I think it's a reasonably good coach. I think the approach that canals took was probably right because I think it's sort of a tacit admission that they have an issue a quarterback but like all of that it's like I want to get to the young players. I want to be in on Jonathan Brooks. I want to be in on Teteromic Millen and I'm trying to figure out if this team is going to run any plays at all and I kind of am concerned that I don't want to be in on anybody in this offense. Yeah I'm I'm totally with you on the offense. What you mentioned about the Saints and their fans kind of being bullish on their offense maybe misguidedly I kind of think that about the Panthers just because they ended up making the playoffs. They actually ranked lower in EPA per play last year than they did two years ago. We have them for the second fewest real plays per game which excludes spikes and yield ends but it's pretty much the same thing as just plays per game on the difference in pass rate. I think we're just at our algorithm there and I think what that might be taking into account is the increased pass till near the end of the year. From weeks one to ten last year they had one game with a positive pass rate over expectation in four games with a double digit negative PR-ROE. They closed the year with four straight games with a positive PR-ROE and they're two highest games all year where they're final two games. So I think that's where our algorithm is that combined with their win total being seven and a half juiced under so this is supposed to be a bad team. But with that being said, I was looking at the pass rate right before we hopped on here just because I noticed the big difference. And I think there's a chance that our pass rate is is a little high based on just how past tilted they were right at the end of the season and kind of ignoring where they were before that. So that's something that maybe we could lower. I mean, maybe the right answer is somewhere in the middle. But I'm way through unlike the Caroline and the Bryce Taken general. Yeah, we do have them 31st overall projected plays and then fourth and projected pass rates. So probably probably need to to bring down that pass rate. A little bit one thing Leoni has constantly mentioned in off seasons previously is yes sure you expect these teams to run a lap. But then when you're also projecting the pass rate for teams that are expected to struggle as well and be playing from behind. There's there's only kind of so far you can you can go on the rushing side to get that that pass rate down far enough just given with like the projected spreads. And and wind total there for these teams. So I think that's probably why out of this is also a little bit higher. And in last year was like man, are they really going to give Rico Dattle 30 30 more carries this game and like you know, sure enough they kind of did. And so it's hard to kind of separate I think like those those many in season trends from okay, how are we going to separate that from from what we expect this upcoming season. And how the Panthers you know, whole offensive environment is is going to change again, we I think we all kind of expect them to to probably struggle a little bit more than last year and expect the pass rate to come up where we probably still are just a little bit high in that regard. But you know, certainly just kind of leaning to algo. I think I do think that on top of maybe the end of year pass rate being high for them is probably why that comes in a little bit elevated for us. Yeah, makes sense. All right. I don't think we need to talk too much more about Bryce young and his fantasy outlook. We are pretty similar projections there between between Gretchen ETR and terms of despite the the play gap volume or the you guys see me like ceiling outcomes for him. I probably won't draft them all year. I don't see like. I mean, unless I'm really wrong on on the pass rate stuff and when they trail, they actually do throw a lot more this year like I have a hard time again like I had to bump his yards for attempt to get him to 3750. There's not a lot of play volume. There's not a lot of you know, a fish and the quarterbacks profile for sure. And I don't think there's there's much upside there. He has started to scramble more of the last couple of seasons. So like you get that a little bit. But he ran super hot on rushing touchdowns two years ago and that that you know correctly kind of regressed last season. And I think obviously Teteroma McMillan, you know, strong wide receiver one there. Jalen Coke. I've always liked and and bit a little ahead of market on. But kind of when you look at the rest of of the target tree. I don't think there's a whole lot you can you can hold your hat on in terms of you know, you mentioned Zabie LeGeth and been one of the worst wide receivers in the league since he's entered Chris Brazill or Brazil, you know comes from this from this Tennessee tree that hasn't produced very many effective NFL wide receivers recently. And then a tight end. It's it's it's pretty much nothing. You know, we've we've maybe wanted to do the sanders to break out a little bit. But he and Tommy tremble are pretty interchangeable there. I don't think there's a whole lot of of upside dreaming there. So I don't have a whole lot of optimism around Bryce Young and his fantasy. I look, I really think if if you want to attack the Panthers and fantasy this year, it's likely going to come from the backfield and then Teteroma McMillan, I think are are, you know, probably the spots that you're going to want to be looking more so than than Bryce himself. Yeah. All right. Let's let's talk through this backfield. I know Jack and I beforehand. This is another spot where like we're we're eager to see where Gretchen lands on on the Chuba Hubbard and Jonathan Brooks split because Jonathan Brooks, you know, famously coming off to torn ACLs only a handful of carries in the NFL seemingly healthy. This offseason after missing all of last year. We are at 132 carries on Jonathan Brooks. Gretchen's at 190. We are at 185 carries on Chuba Hubbard. Gretchen's at 165. So we have that fully flipped. Gretchen also ahead and targets for Jonathan Brooks at 37. We're at 34 on Chuba Hubbard. This is a discussion. We continue to have and in the ETR slack. Just, you know, how much do we believe that Jonathan Brooks could be the RB one here? I think I think ultimately if Jonathan Brooks is healthy for the full season, like I think we would probably have Jonathan Brooks projected ahead of Chuba Hubbard. Jack, I don't know if you're making a face that you may not agree with that curious. Curious your take there and in what how we have the split here, just kind of between Chuba and Jonathan Brooks and maybe break down kind of the health health concerns around Brooks as well. Yeah, it's not really a disagreement with that. It's more just like I'm super uncertain on what to expect from Brooks coming off the back to back ACLs. And the reporting this offseason has been super positive, but it's just really hard to know in my opinion. And so that's why I was curious to see where Gretchen came in and obviously he came in like pretty vastly different from us. I'm definitely not opposed to Brooks out carrying Chuba. I just really, really have no idea how to project this back to him from a carry standpoint. I feel pretty confident it's going to be Chuba getting the past down stuff. So the the health stuff I completely agree is really hard. I've seen some stuff from the Twitter docs and, you know, your mileage may vary. I never keep track of them all enough to give credit towards students. So I apologize, but I know one of them did a little thread where he talked about the the the the the the conventional wisdom on it seems to be the first ACL repair was not done particularly well, but also when they went into the second ACL repair, they're able to use the same like drill holes in the bone, which they took to be a very positive thing and reattach and they did a different slightly different procedure and it was a different surgeon who did it and there's a lot of optimism there. So there's like the actual technical stuff on what they had to do that it was like basically they messed it up and then they redid it. And then the bigger part of that for me, the reason I'm optimistic is they just made a decision to sit him out of 2025. So this was an injury from 18 months ago. We like we've given this guy a long time now to rehab is in terms of like how to do the split when I first went into was like Chuba is going to be the early season lead back. Like no question in my mind pretty much I actually got done and then shifted more work to Brooks after an OTA B report that that Brooks could be like straight up the number one back, which I had a kind of already been thinking but it feels like it could happen like earlier than I thought like through the season. Obviously, we saw doubt will take work from Chuba last year. I do still think Chuba's likely to lead early and I don't think they're likely to like give Brooks so much work that they run him into the ground right like doesn't make any sense. So Chuba's the guy that's going to get work sort of regardless. I don't think the way I have it projected is like a pretty good median. It's more like I was trying to really thread an exact needle what I think might happen. But it's probably the low end for Chuba in terms of like how the split could work. I do think Brooks taking over the lead job by like week five at this point seems very on the table because I think he's probably way better. And I do think they this is a team that drafted this guy in the second round coming off in ACL. They knew they were going to have to wait on him and they they loved the profile. They love the talent and then they didn't get anything out of him and they made a decision to sit him all last year and then they let Rico down a walk. This is still a second round guy even though he tours ACL again right away. They already were expecting to miss a whole one year and still thought he was worth a day to pick and they were investing in him longer term. They missed two years out of that but they've gotten nothing out of this pick. You still have the element of we have the intent of like the draft capital element of it. We have an investment here and we want to like teams dole out work based on draft capital because they're the ones making these decisions and they also are like incentive is the word I'm trying to think of. They have the incentive now to get those guys out there on Brooks's college data is really good per touch not a ton of volume. His evasion breakaway rate yards after contact receiving efficiency was all great yet significantly less volume than Jeremiah love but he was the number one running back in his class. Jeremiah loves yards after contact port temp 4.35 Brooks was 4.13. This is for a career. 0.335 missed tackles force per touch that was Jeremiah love Brooks higher 0.365. Jeremiah loves breakaway percentage percentage of runs that were 15 plus yards 10.2% Brooks was at 9.2%. A full percentage point lower but still in the realm and Jeremiah loves yards per out run 1.60 Brooks is were 1.50. It's like a half tier worst statistical profile in the peripherals that I like to look at now the key thing is 495 touches for Jeremiah love 266 for Brooks significantly less volume being a workhorse is a skill. Jeremiah loves a superstar. I'm not saying Brooks is him. I am saying Brooks's profile is really really strong. If you look at those peripherals and those things. Meanwhile Chuba Hubbard's advanced metrics last year completely created crater zero runs over 15 yards. He literally had a 0% breakaway run rate. yards after contact port temp drops more than the yard missed tackles force per touch down to a career low. He is now 27 that's not too old but the full body of work right now is actually not that great. He had the 1100 yard season a couple years ago. I think it was was this career high prior to that had been kind of struggled the first couple years kind of like a breakout one season. If you go look at his like four or five years he's not like a superstar back or anything he's been a stable veteran over multiple years. Brooks is the year to excuse me the day to draft capital guy that had this really interesting collegiate profile now again the hell stuff is the whole question. But I do think if you're doing projections like I do it and you're assuming health and then you're looking at advanced metrics and stuff and saying who's going to win out. By their play throughout the season Brooks looks like these far superior running back at this point from just a metric standpoint if he's healthy. Yeah, I think that's totally fair, especially when you look at like kind of the redraft first, best ball lens. I feel like Jonathan Brooks in redraft is clearly the much more exciting draft tick where you know, in best ball, again, we feel a little bit better about kind of like the basework to start the season for Chuba Hubbard. And if there are any injury concerns Chuba would probably run away with those with those touch counts. So I do think a league specific format can kind of change your approach. And the ADP on these two has been converging quite a bit. So that leaves us a little bit ahead of market on Chuba Hubbard right now and quite a bit far behind on Jonathan Brooks. But I do think this is a spot where the training camp goes well depending on reports around Brooks's health. And if it could kind of come by week one, hey man, this might be closer to a 50/50 split right off the bat with Jonathan Brooks and Chuba. I certainly think our volume projection could converge closer to where Gretch has it with Jonathan Brooks ahead. But again, right now we are kind of flipped on these two value spots. All right, let's get into the wider series. One thing I will throw in when asked about ETN Trevor, ETN in June, Dave Canales, who really quickly referenced the return game and the work that he's excited to see the work that he'll get in the preseason, which was about as clear of your depth piece. Quote as you can get from a call. I do think it's one of these two guys. This is the conversation. ETN seems like the three or they have AJ Dylan. But it does seem like we're going to get a lot of these two, which is nice, right? It's going to be one or the other. Probably some value there. Agreed. Yeah, we are. They have any work on on Chubri, TN 30 carries projected for the full season there. So agreed it will probably be pretty condensed on on those top two guys. All right. Let's get into the wide receivers here, Teteromic, Millen headlines, the Panthers outlook. We are quite a bit behind Gretchen terms of raw target numbers on on T-Mac, which I don't love off off the bat here. We're at 115 targets. Gretchen at 137 also hasn't projected for 17 more receptions. Despite just 22 more targets there. So a little bit higher on the catch rate and the efficiency a little bit for T-Macs. And not only are we are we trailing there in volume, but also efficiency. I think that probably comes back a little bit to kind of the elevated Bryce Young efficiency metric that Gretchen has there as well. And then Jalen Coker here as wide receiver two signed a new extension here with the Panthers. Big contract signing for Jalen Coker who is an undrafted free agent three year, $35 million extension there with the Panthers. Again, they really get in Chris Brasile, kind of wide receiver three and four here, but do not think they are necessarily a fantasy relevant other than late stack partners in best ball. Jack, we are a little bit behind the best ball market on on Teterome, Mcmillan. I think that probably again stems back to maybe being just a little bit light on the Bryce Young expectations. But when the target shares with when Jalen Coker came back last year from week eight on Teterome Mcmillan was 24% Jalen Coker was 18% and LeGet was 13%. We are a little bit below all all three of those metrics or especially on T-Mac and Coker kind of in our season long projections. So maybe some room to come up, I curious your thoughts there on T-Mac specifically as he enters his second season. Yeah, I think it comes down to the target ceiling for me, given that it seems like we are in agreement on the offense not being particularly special. So I am not expecting game-breaking efficiency out of T-Mac. With that, I kind of kind of come down to how many targets can you earn and can you really have a Gara Wilson type 30% target share on a terrible offense that makes him high and fantasy wide receiver or is he going to be in the 23.5% range that he was last year. That was a seasonal target share as a rookie. We're right now at 22%. We do project guys conservatively just to account for injury risk and any other kind of inseason risk. So that typically translates to like a 25 or 26% target share from a weekly standpoint. So we are expecting a bump in his target share from where he was as a rookie but not ascending to that fully true best in the league target hog. That basically leads us coming in slightly below market on T-Mac. Yeah, Gretz curious where you stand on T-Mac again. We are a little bit behind market on him and the best one in ReJaff DADP currently. Yeah, so one pass volume is a major concern. One weird spot I'm going to start as a positive is the Titans just look bad. Tommy Trembl has five straight years under a 1.0 yards per out run with between 240 and 280 routes. He's going to be out there running routes and doing nothing with them. And he led the Titans in routes last year. Dave and Sanders banged up. Rookie Mitchell Evans actually probably looked the most interesting from a per route perspective but they neither of them looked great either. And so like to me, when I see the projections and I just added Jimmy Horn as a sixth receiver here. I'm looking further down where you guys have some volume for like Mechee and Horn as the five and the six behind Lee Gretz as the four, some decent volume there. That's probably like I always do end up projecting more health and concentrating stuff more right. But that's probably where I think I feel pretty comfortable in and off. One of the things we see in the lower volume offence is there tends to be a little bit more target concentration sometimes. You don't need as much shoving when you're taking 90 seconds between plays which I think is illegal, but that's they still manage it. And like running the ball of time. Teteromic Billion top 10 pick played, ran 551 routes as a rookie had over a thousand yards. 21.8% targets per route is not like a leader anything 8.5 yards per target not elite 1.84 yards per out run not a leader anything but all very good, very, very good rookie season across the board. And he was a rookie a young rookie a three year early to clear hyper productive. Top 10 pick very strong rookie season going into year two. Bad tight ends he's going to be running targets against I do like cocker. I do think Brazil has the ability to elevate over le get. I think he's going to run around on almost every single drop back in a low volume offence and potentially a near to really concentrate the volume, not just like what he had last year, but really step that forward. I think he's a really, really good player and and one of the big things in his prospect profile was there wasn't a lot of like screens and a lot of that stuff. If you look to like Matt Harman's reception perception, all the like 10 yard intermediate routes, he won on all of them and he ran a lot of them. The in breakers, the outbreakers, the comebacks, the posts, everything. People were concerned about his vertical profile, like where you need to win at the NFL level and go earn targets in the intermediate range. He won a ton in college and racked up volume on intermediate stuff in the way that compiles a big target numbers and then he did that right away as a rookie about as well as you can expect for a rookie in an offense like this. I think we're talking about a player trajectory that's just straight up and this guy's going to be a stud. I would liken him to like if you're looking for this year's JSN, the guy that's going in the round three, round four range, that's just a great long view, great prospect profile, draft capital, maybe not as great early seasons, early years of his career, but you're looking for that breakout season. The problem is, I don't think in this offense, he can do what JSN did last year and obviously what JSN did is not, you're not going to replicate that anyway. It was just to absurd how concentrated he was, but JSN really concentrated the receiving volume in a low volume pass offense and there's a degree of that here where it's like McMillan Tameek could be so far above all of his teammates. It could be a really big concentration of the volume. Now, the one other name that I think it's really interesting is Jaylen Cochari. He missed the first six games. He started slowly on his return, just seven catches in the first four games back. Some of us per route numbers end up not looking great in year two. I do think it's relevant that he was not healthy in those first four games back, barely doing anything. Big up, Port trajectory late, postseason loss, season highs across the board, 12 targets, nine catches, 134 in a TD when they almost upset the Rams. His depth adjusted racer is a number that I use in my projections. They're elite both years, really high catch rate. What that depth adjusted racer is looking at is at his ADOT, how well does he convert areas into actual receiving yards. His targets per route have not been great either of the first two years, but he came out as a UDFA who had to earn a role in year one. You don't just get handed volume. One of the points I made on this show last year was Leigh Gett had like 10 targets in week three because he was the round one rookie that year. And Coker had to develop into a role late in the season. He could get some volume. He kind of had that again this year because he's hurt and then he's coming back and starting slowly, but he clearly becomes the number two by the end of the year and is their star in the postseason game. I do think the target per route is going to tick up eventually for him. And to me, it's really valuable that the other side of that yards per out run equation of like how efficient a player is the yards per target. Once he's earned the volume, the after the target efficiency I like to say, that's why his racer so good that catch rate the ball and hand stuff. He looks great. He's a very good athlete for a small school guy. He looks great as a secondary receiver. And somebody that actually I think could draw some attention off of McMillan and again, an efficient per target is part of why you go back to Bryce Young. You say, well, if Coker could run a full season of routes for the first time in year three, that's going to probably be positive for Bryce Young as well, but not enough for me to care about Bryce Young. But enough for me to think that the combination of McMillan and Coker could be interesting. For Zell is a sub four four guy actual size really at 198. He's not one of these like 170 pound four four guys. The production was an amazing in college, but the eight outs were always super high. A lot of air yards. I think there's another guy that could be like I was talking about what was it on Tampa Hills. Yeah, like that. That's not official X. Sacrificial X a better a better third receiver for the offense than League at League at will probably play some two, but it feels like a problem. The bust at this point was down to a yards per outrun under one in year two on pretty solid route volume. And then again, I mentioned the tight ends are not appealing to me. So it's kind of like like mail in cocker and maybe you just get the size speed rookie running long routes. But I do expect this to be a pretty concentrated receiving core. Yeah. As we as we talk through this, I I do think we could maybe condense things a little bit more on McMillan and cocker on our end and kind of skim off off the tertiary and secondary wide receivers there for the panthers. Maybe that's something we just build in with a ceiling case more so because McMillan is is the type of profile I want to bet on at wide receiver and certainly, you know, I think the quarterback play and the overall offensive environment just in terms of raw number of plays and past temps they can get off is probably his biggest hindrance right now. But yeah, sending it into a second season, just given what he showed last year and the draft capital associated with him. I think that's something where we could probably bump up his ceiling outcomes just just because the volume could really condense if he continues to ascend. So that's probably something I would like to end up coming up on after after this conversation here. All right, we are almost two hours in and still have full team left. So given given the lack of excitement around the tight ends, let's just go ahead and skip to the Falcons here. Our last team of the division Falcons bring over Kevin Stefansky as a head coach from the Cleveland Browns or playcar call or will be Tommy Reese, although Stefansky has done a little bit of a yo-yo with with Reese in previous seasons where where like Stefansky has started the year calling plays and I'll hit Hill, handed over to Tommy Reese and and and vice versa that has gone back and forth a little bit there in terms of a team level that we have for the Falcons here. Also close on the play volume here, we are at 61.2 projected plays at ETR Gretches at 61.3 and then our pass rate nearly identical here as well. We are at 58.8 percent. Gretches at 58.5 percent. So kind of love to see that agreement there, especially given the new coaching staff here. Gretches any comments area here on Kevin Stefansky as he takes over in Atlanta? Not really. I did have a note that it's just sort of hard to judge them based on the past couple years in Cleveland based on the different QBs that they've had a lot of different QBs that have influenced their trends differently like from Joe Flacco to the rookies last year. Right. And then also the QB play general is not that high, which influences how you can actually run your offense. The stuff that I think is relevant that I factored in is they have played with some tempo generally and they've also like to do the heavier tight end formations. We talked about how concentrated Zach Robinson was in Atlanta last year. He's the one going over to Tampa to take over the coordinator job there. I don't have like Atlanta as being like massively spread out because their personnel is going to dictate this to a degree and they are a depth threat that looks concentrated. But I think it's relevant that you have Stefansky coming in and that the baseline last year was heavily concentrated. You do have to kind of think through how that's going to manifest. I think obviously Al Jir had a big RB2 role. I don't think it's going to affect B John too much. But if you look at all of the other running backs on the roster after their top two running backs, they combine for nine rush attempts. Single digit rushes for your RB3 and beyond is absurd. And I talked about earlier, there wasn't like a fourth receiver or a second tight end who had more than 16 targets or whatever. I mean, hyper, hyper concentrated as a floor. If you're just looking at last year's numbers, you do have to factor that in. Although again, I do think it's going to be concentrated team again. Yeah, it's also tough to parse as well because we're uncertain on the quarterback situation here in Atlanta as well. And it's not as big of a difference between two to a talk of I low on and Michael Pennix here, who could be competing for the starting job. Like last year we had the Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson quarterback battle, which was like, man, we have to completely overhaul the entire Indianapolis Colts team and player level projections depending on who is quarterback here. I think at least we have a little bit of an easier case in that and that the offense should, you know, for the most part, operate similarly, whether it's to or Michael Pennix at starting quarterback here. So, you know, that that's certainly a conversation that's going to continue through the offseason. Michael Pennix is recovering from ACL surgery, his third overall ACL tear and recovery that he's gone through as a player pretty, pretty wild for him. And then, you know, right now we just have the the past volume split 50 50 at ETR between two and Michael Pennix. It looks like Gretch pretty much has as the exact same split right now 50 50 between the two. So tough to separate. I don't know. It's just between those guys. The look up the look up formulas in our sheet or my my look up formulas are wrong. I need Leoni. I need Leoni. Just to fix my spreadsheets. As these as these are getting populated live and in real time looks like Pennix is is has the more or the higher attempt projection here for Gretch again, you know, the the Falcons have made a massive investment into Michael Pennix, obviously trading the first round pick selecting him as a surprise after they gave that contract to Kirk cousins a couple years ago. And listening to Albert Brewer, he expects Michael Pennix to get the first crack of it, assuming, you know, he and Tua are are kind of, you know, 50 50 or even in terms of training camp how they're performing to assign to one year $1.2 million dollar contract. That's the 70th average annual value among quarterbacks. So clearly, not a not a big investment from the Falcons into to a talk of I low S. So all things considered there. I do think if Pennix shows that he is capable of playing week one, you know, it might tilt his way, but man, I don't feel confident that whatever quarterback starts week one is is going to play the rest of the season. So Gretch any any leans here on on Pennix and just overall this this Falcons QB room. Yeah. So what I wrote is I finally keep you battle fascinating, but I'm not sure it matters much for fantasy because I do think they're both guys that elevate the skill players and then they both kind of don't matter in their own right a ton. Yeah. The big difference is the Adot. Tua is going to have a much lower Adot higher completion percentage. He gets the ball out quickly. Pennix is going to be more vertical. And so their Adots have been pretty wide wide gap the last few years. If you look at things like completion percentage, Tua is is a lot higher and his completion percentage over expected even higher. One of the things about Pennix, he gets a little bit of a bad rap for a really low completion percentage. People miss that as sacrate is incredibly low. It was a big part of his prospect profile at UW as well, which you know, shout out my my home. The back here. I wasn't that super high on him translating his skill set to the pros. I do think he gets a bad rap that people like we're expecting the wrong stuff from him because some of the things that he hasn't done well, I expected him to not do well. And some of the things he has done well, like he's been able to keep the sacrate very, very low at the NFL level. He throws the ball away. You would prefer that. So if you go look at like EPA based numbers, he's more middle of the pack since the beginning of last year from a sample of quarterbacks. If you look at like completion percentage over expected, he's like third from the bottom. That's because he's throwing balls away instead of taking sacs. That's better for the EPA stats. It's worse for the completion percentage stuff. You're going to find like little things like that that are interesting with him. At the same time, he's not perfect. He does miss throws. But he's got a really big arm. He's able to hit a lot of different areas. Last year on this show, I thought him and Drake London would be really good fits in the intermediate range, the deep intermediate range that we were just talking about with like Tadaroa Mcmillan, for example. And that's show. That was a clear hit in my opinion where London was when he got hurt. He had a really started to come on five 100 yard games in six weeks. And then both him and Penninx got hurt in the same game. London missed a bunch of additional time. London had another great year on a per out basis and all that stuff. I'm very high on him. I would compare him to a Lava minute ago. They have similar ADPs. To me, the concern for Lava at his cost right now is I don't see him really being able with the lack of efficiency and so on that stuff. He can earn a lot of volume. But he feels like a small hit big mistype where I don't see him being able to get with the first round receivers in a ceiling sense. And I could see him being pulled back by Tyson. I see the complete opposite for Drake London. I see London potentially being able to produce like a first round receiver, both from a volume like concentration in some of the efficiency stuff standpoint. And I don't see the additional receivers on this offense being able to really cut into Drake London the way that we talked about could be an issue for a Lava. And so anyway, that to me though, obviously we can get to the receivers in a second. But the two of Penninx thing you were talking about, I think they're both good for the the receiving weapons. I think Penninx is better. And I think it's a really interesting conversation because because of the way that Penninx pushes the ball and is able to attack other areas of the field, I think is so vital from a skiing perspective to creating space. To me, the whole offense, MacDango built around him was like built to his strengths and to hide his weaknesses. I'm concerned outside of that, whether he's going to be like a pumpkin. But again, I think both having both these guys raises the floor of the offense. I think probably we're leaning toward to a starting week one. I did it 60 40 to Penninx because I think Penninx probably takes over and is probably the better play for like the actual success of the team. Not that I think he's a superstar or anything. I really don't. But I think he's, uh, is the arm strength and ability to attack the different areas is opens up space. Bijon's always run really effectively when when Penninx has been in. They've had a pretty competent offense when he's been in there other than when he's made some mistakes, which he does make is a young QB guy only has 12 starts though. The the the the rap on Michael Pennix to me, a little bit unfair, like I said. But I think having both raises the floor, if two of gets hurt, if two is not playing well it doesn't bottom out the offense. you have panics and vice versa. If I'm wrong on panics, if he's bad, you have two, uh, and if they have to switch to the other quarterback, which presumably they would in those scenarios, that other quarterback is also good for the receiving weapons. They're guys that get the ball out. I've talked about the percentage of dropbacks have become pass attempts. When I do these projections and when we do these shows in the past, I've talked about it. Two is the big one. He doesn't take sacks either, just like panics doesn't. He doesn't scramble at all. I really high percentage of called passes when two is at quarterback are going to turn into actual pass attempts. Targets catches production for the receivers. That's good. It's also good with panics that he's willing to get the ball out. These are quarterbacks that are good for the receiving weapons. Yeah. And despite us being having Atlanta 21st and total play volume and 25th and projected pass rate, we do have we are ahead of Drake London against the market right now, which, which I like, Bijon, you know, he's a top two draft to player right now. So hard to be, you know, too high or too low on him, just given his current draft position and then Kyle pits as well. We are above market on. So despite kind of the lackluster, I think overall team outlook of the Falcon, certainly the top end fantasy performers. I think the floor ceiling combo is pretty buoyed by this quarterback room and just given the offends of success to fans. He has posted sometimes in Cleveland despite not much weaponry there. I do do think that is, you know, a relatively decent setup. All things considered. Let's head to the backfield though. We'll start with this is the B Robinson backfield going to be tough tough for us in the spreadsheets this season. Bijon Robinson obviously the headliner here and then the Falcons did bring in Brian Robinson, most most recently with the 49ers Tyler Tyler out year is now with the Arizona Cardinals. So we have this B Robinson backfield here and and Bijon, you know, excel to a RB three finish last year in fantasy, but wasn't necessarily a huge huge volume back a two to one split and carries over Tyler out year really separated in the past game department did did Bijon. So that's kind of where the bread is buttered there over 100 targets for Bijon last year. And I do think if two or two ever, you know, be the starting quarterback for a long stint, we saw his his broclivity to throw to Devon H and obviously Bijon Robinson, you know, one of the most talented receiving backs as well that that could help out his case here a little bit. So Jack, I think probably the biggest question outside of Bijon is what kind of role do we expect Brian Robinson to take in comparison to Tyler out year? Do we think it's going to be more of a continue to be like a two to one split and carries you think Bijon can potentially separate more this year in terms of raw rush attempt volume. I think it makes sense to keep Bijon in a similar role from a raw carry standpoint and that's kind of what we're projecting. We I think it's kind of a a good replacement for LG to get another power back like Brian Robinson and like Rich said, we know there's not going to be much volume out of the RB3 plus they have Nathan Carter and Tyler Goodson. So not expecting really anything out of those guys. I think the question that I have in this backfield is what the goal line stuff looks like last year LG or match Bijon with seven carries inside the five yard line. Now you've got a different player and Brian Robinson who we know could be he has the size to have that goal line role at least. But we've also got a new staff who might just view Bijon differently and we don't know if they view you know Bijon as our record course. We also want to make the goal line or if they have the same inclination as the previous staff that we could get a power back down in the game near the goal line. So I'm curious what that looks like inside the five yard line. We have Gibbs is the pretty clear 101 over Bijon across all four match right now. I think part of that is because with David Montgomery gone into Troy and replaced by Pacheco you can feel really good about Gibbs getting the goal line carries along with the offense and Detroit being better. But they're certainly upside for Bijon to get a higher percentage of the carries inside the five than last year with the new staff and with with the new competition with Robinson instead of LG. But it is uncertain and I think that that keeps Bijon from being like in the same tier as Gibbs along with the offense obviously. In terms of raw projection here for Bijon we're at 250 carries, Gratjat 262, we're at 82 targets, Gratj 88. So we're relatively close there again you know typically with Gratj being a little bit hotter than us on the volume. Brian Robinson we are at 125 carries and 11 targets, Gratj is at 101 carries and 14 targets. He does have some more work for Tyler Goodson and Nathan Carter. Then we do I think that's probably Gratj. You just looking at last year and saying man this the RB three is can't be as little involved as they were the last season whereas we have kind of lots all that volume onto the B Robinson crew there. So you know certainly a strong outlook for Bijon once again this season. Let's head into that Widersiever room though which is headlined by Dray Clenden and man you look after that and we have Zachariah Branch with with the second highest projected target share here and then followed by Olamade Zikias and Jahan Dodson Zikias and Dodson kind of kind of journeyman now Dodson you know I still think of as a young player but going into his fifth season and and the volume just was non-existent and Philly the last couple of years Olamade Zikias kind of one of those guys that you know hope he's probably a better real life football than fantasy player in terms of his value for the commanders and the Bears over the last couple seasons he got you know pretty quickly phased out last year for the Bears once Luther Burton started to emerge and then you have Zachariah Branch here who was you know a third round pick 79th overall 510 180 pound build you know it is build as strong and muscular so maybe he has more of a chance to avoid being like a slot only player in the NFL but I think that's kind of how he's profiled now so so it's a clear runway for Drake London to be just the absolute alpha here in the target tree. In terms of projections there for us we have Drake London at 137 targets Gretchen at 150 we both expect him to clear 1100 yards Gretchen a little bit higher at 1262 yards and then we have seven touchdowns projected Gretchen at eight so certainly a bullish case here on Drake London Gretchen I'm more curious honestly if if you have any interest in the secondary Falcons wider series we can probably loop Kyle pits into that as well if you'd want but it is there really any fantasy interests in kind of the rest of this wider seabour room and then yeah you can you can hit a little bit more on your Drake London optimism as well just given the runway how clear it is for him this season. I was saying yeah I kind of out of gave the whole case on London that I have but I do think you know a little bit banged up last year the Per Out stuff really really strong for the second straight year looks like I don't think he's like in the same tier as the very best wide receivers in the league but I think there's kind of a tear break at wide receiver in the second to third round and I think he's ahead of that in a part of the the really you know elite receivers he's at the back end of that certainly but you mentioned Zachariah branch athletic he's a smaller guy high level of vision and yak very low eight odds never even a 500 a yard season in college he's probably more of a secondary guy as a as a rookie in my mind some manufacturer touches but you're kind of talking through that that's exactly what you would think of as you know johan dot's in in a lumbar a zikias is role you you know are probably not getting too hyped up for the secondary tight ends in this offense and so yeah I mean the question for me is does Kyle pits stand above those guys and I'm I'm actually probably a little bit concerned about pits I mean I think you've got to look at the year from last year and say look he's still 25 years old and we finally got some real production out of him and there's some potential the problem is his 7.5 a dot last year was a career low he broke out late with Kirk cousins like check down artists hitting him underneath his first three years as eight odds were 11.2 13.7 and 12.0 like that was the promise of Kyle pits they're wide receiver eight odds above average for a wide receiver even vertical he was an underneath receiving weapon I see him as probably not as clearly like with London as the top two as much as I have him projected from pretty good volume ahead of the other receivers but I see him as kind of an a pit with those other receivers as sort of the secondary weapons and then really probably I see bjohn as the other like focal point with with London I just want to give a couple quick notes on on bjohn but last year like one of the big optimistic things on him was that all of his advanced metrics were way better last year and then touchdowns you guys mentioned the the goal on stuff you only had seven rush TVs out here at eight last year he has a 2300 yard season and only has 11 TVs he had 15 the year prior so and so it's like is a vision rate is yards after contact break away rate all that stuff really really strong his yards per out run last year though is one little minor note that I'm concerned about 1.88 last year it was only 1.16 and 1.1 one the first two years I don't know if you can really keep that massive spike but they used him vertically in the past game he had 69 areas last year which doesn't sound like a ton but for a running back they usually have an eight out that's negative he had negative 20 combined over the first two years he was actually running routes down field apparently is watching Cooper cop highlights this off season they've talked about and he thinks he's going to be a slot receiver everyone in the building talks about him like he's the best player in the NFL they also returned four or five starters on the offensive line and out of Bill Callahan as the coach there so some of the offensive line stuff that I've seen are optimistic about a top 10 unit I mean I I'm with you guys I have Jermir Gibbs ahead of B. John but that like there's some minor concerns with some of the like receiving stuff but also like if he continues to run vertical routes maybe he's like I don't know like he he maybe the heir apparent to like Christian McCaffrey as the best dual threat like a total yardage guy and then like one of the things I noticed on our our projections as you guys have Brian Robinson's touchdowns closer to to him that I do. And again, that makes sense with the Algiers split last year. But I kind of feel like whole new coaching staff and everything. I just want to assume that they're going to give the better player the touchdowns. And anyway, I wind up intrigued by B. John's specific stuff as it rearranges for the next year. I do like Gibbs a little bit more. I do think some of the stuff can't be exactly as good like the receiving. And yet there's a lot of optimism that that I mean, he's clearly a top two pick in all formats for me as well. Yeah, I think if the goal line role returns, it could be that, you know, B. John emerges as as like the clear clear, you know, top back you want in fantasy, just assuming that that receiving role continues to to be elites, regardless of the coaching staff change here. I do want to say on on the Cal Pits front, you know, the split pros will just love to tell you that that Cal Pits only only crushed when Drake London was out last season. And that is largely true, but I kind of take it as more of like a good sign that pits was able to prove that he could be an alpha in the offense. If if London was down, you know, again, just kind of how top heavy this this concentration is. And then we have so fancy coming over who has has long featured tight ends in his offense, you know, Cal Pits still still just 25 years old. The target competition is is not there. And I do think that again, just kind of like the the ceiling that he did show is is what we've wanted. And so for him to get that opportunity and come through with it consistently when Drake London was out, I almost see it more as a benefit more than a detractor that I think people are saying, Oh, if Drake London's in there, he's he's not going to be able to do that. I don't I don't necessarily fully agree with that. So we are a little bit above market on Cal Pits. I do think, you know, he he certainly been someone I've been attacking in best ball drafts a little bit after, you know, 180 P there on pits were we're about 10 spots five to 10 spots ahead of him right now. So, you know, with with with Leoni gone, of course, we have to we have to talk up Kyle Pits in his stead. It just would not be an an established the Ed's projection show without, you know, some a little a little Kyle Pits hype two hours and 12 minutes in here is just, you know, I think the way we have to shut this one down. So any any final comments here guys before we close this one up. I mean, I'm impressed. I think this came in maybe under knowing we had to hit on some of the macro stuff. We had to get used to, you know, thank I've never podcasted you Jack. Maybe once or twice back in the day, but we had to get used to each other a little bit. Three man weave as well. Two, two, 12, not bad. We'll we'll tighten it up. We'll tighten it up listeners. I genuinely think the people are absolutely going to love it only only the truth that goes listen to this. Anyway, so the fact that we're over two minutes, two hours of, I think awesome analysis, you know, not too many wasted words out here. So really appreciate everyone tuning in with us today. Again, this is part one of an eight part series here. We are aiming to to record probably about two episodes per week. We are, you know, in the summer months of vacation and in some other commitments as well. So I think throughout this series, there may be some episodes without me as I gone summer vacation with family and and we'll deal with that. But for the most part, expect, you know, one of two episodes per week over the next month to six weeks as we close out this eight part series truly just an absolute blast sitting down here and talking ball for over two hours with Jack and Brett super, super fun to be here and fill in this role. So thanks again, everyone for listening. We will have episode two, which I believe the AFC South is going to be up next. We're going to tackle that division. So expect that later this week on your pod and YouTube feeds. But once again, thanks everyone for listening. We'll catch you next time. [Music]