Establish The Million: Week 16

Welcome to Establish the Million Week 16 edition. Some very special honored guests. Some would use very honored here, and we've got Andrew Wiggins fresh off six-figure score in the DK live final. We've got Gary Hartman. Thanks so much for joining, fellas. My GPB bro now, if you've finished top 15 in the DK final, you get your GPB bro card. I think you get a GPB bro card if you finish top 15 while taking a zero with your lowest own player. I think that gets you the card. Wiggins, I don't know if you've got the right mic on, you sounded a little muffled there. All right. We'll fix. Well, you fixed that. I was going to say, Wiggins. My intro is going to be welcome to the GPB bro club, because it's been your year in that front. And Mazeltov, as my people would say, on a big run for sure, man. Good stuff. Thank you. Thank you. You're going in the chat discord, the GPB's are a lot more fun and playing cash, so I've seen the life. Beautiful. Beautiful. Dink is grind in the NBA street, so we gave him a week off. We couldn't even leave him Christmas for NBA this year. NFL had to steal Christmas on that front. There is a two game slate today that we have ownership projections for, and the fantasy point projections for the Monday slate, we will have Sims on the solver for that. I think Levitan said he was going to do a Q&A in discord at some point on that. He said, yeah, the morning of Christmas will be in discord. So make sure to hit him up with your questions for the three game Monday slate. We're going to focus entirely on the Sunday main slate, though. We do get a nine game slate, and yeah, getting right into it. If you want any review stuff from last week, just recommend checking out the GPB recap show with myself and Levitan. We went over that critique Wiggins's live final lineup with a fine tooth comb and just went over some of the things with the running back chalk smashing, some of the late wide receiver values and how to deal with that stuff. But for this week, let's go to the GPB game scores to start. And we have a weird game up top in Seattle, Tennessee. I talked with Adam Rausch, who does the game scores for us about this one. And I think it just comes down to like, Geno is a pretty good value on both sites. And then nobody's really getting on the Seattle wide receivers in a big way in terms of ownership. So it's pretty stackable. It's pretty cheap stack to make. You get cheap bringbacks on the Tennessee side and either a conquel or Traylon Burke's who's emerged a little bit. We have a decent projection on Deandra Hopkins. I'm not as into this game as the game scores, but I suspect a lot of people won't be and it'll keep it somewhat low on. So I carry any thoughts on Seattle, Tennessee. Yeah, I mean, for a nine game slate and in the pace and pace article, you could really kind of also see this. There's a lot of good environments and a lot of higher over unders than we've had for really a lot of the year for the majority of the slate. So I'm with you where I don't necessarily agree with game scores here. I think Geno stacks will be interesting. I will sprinkle it into my build, but it is not going to be my top priority. I am fine with attacking this game as one off plays for value, whether that's Burke's or Cheg or maybe like a JSN. I'm going with that or Kenneth Walker, I think, is an interesting piece we'll talk about when we get to running back. But this isn't from a game stack perspective, one that I'm going to be attacking. I think there's a ton of great game environments and solid pace spots in on this slate that I want to I'd be more interested in. Yeah, we're getting any thoughts. I just think that you can feel very confident that the ownership will not get away from you in this game. And I suspect it will sim well because you can get highly projected correlated teams with ownership and check. So I think it makes sense. I understand it's not the sexiest game in the world, but when you can go into it knowing that the ownership is going to be reasonable and it's going to project well, it's hard to completely overlook that. I think I'm maybe a little more interested than you guys, but I get it. It's nothing to write home about, getting super excited about. Yeah, I'm not a full pass. The Tennessee pass defense is much worse than the rush defense and that's good for the Geno stuff. If Geno can stay healthy for the duration of this game and a lot of times we see this when you get three pass catchers and they're all like kind of similar values is like nobody plays them and it's tough to pick, but there's definitely a reward there. I'd worry a little bit at JSN's ownership starts to come up as I was looking through the slate, but we'll talk more about that. Yeah, part of that will come down to if Jane Reed is ruled out because Wix will be a black hole ownership at that price tag, you know, he's four three versus JSN at four five. My question for you Leonie would be if you did play Geno, would you double in? I think I would double them if I'm playing them. I don't think you'd like absolutely have to, but I think I probably would take JSN and Metcalf would be like my lean, which, but I think JSN I would definitely have in there for the cap relief if I'm doubling them and then just pick one of Metcalf or lock it. Yeah, I would not double them with Metcalf and lock it. I would do one of Metcalf and lock it with either JSN or Walker potentially. I like it. Yeah, we'll talk more about Walker running back. I think Gary and I both like him, but let's go to the fun total games, highest total game, Dallas at Miami, it's a late game, so there's some swap equity here. There's not a ton of salary late, but you also get Arizona at Chicago late, which I think will be the Chicago side of things is going to be somewhat chalky. The difficulty is like there's only so many things to swap to in the Tampa Bay, Jacksonville game. But there is some equity and being able to swap to ETN, Mike Evans, Godwin, those types of players, if you set things up to give yourself that out. But as far as Miami, Dallas specifically, as I mentioned, like super high total in this game, some of the highest ceiling players at each position are in this game. You know, Dax, one of the highest ceiling quarterbacks we have, Tyreek and CD, highest ceiling wide receivers you get HN at running back, Ferguson at Tyda. So, Tyda's ceiling here, I'm worried, I shouldn't say worried, but I think Miami is going to run a decent bit, we saw Buffalo exposed Dallas through the ground last week, Dallas already had one of the most negative pass rate over expectations against, but that doesn't mean the game can't go off just because how efficient Miami can be on the ground. Yeah, if ownership holds here, at least on draft games, I'm going to be very interested in this game. You know, it's not getting away, and maybe it's because it's everyone's too fully priced and efficiently priced, but you're not seeing double digit ownership on anyone on the dolphins. And on Dallas on draft games, I think it's just CD that barely cracks it and Tony Pollard right around that range, you know, that's very interesting to me for what is the highest total game of the week, probably still has the best chance to be a full-on shootout of any game. And I know there are a bunch of good game environments. I'd still say this is the one that has that, you know, going back to that Seahawks Cowboys game from a couple weeks ago, like that's kind of a blueprint that you'd be hoping for here. And I could see it happening, right? Last week was weird with the Dallas game, with the rain there in Buffalo, and obviously, you know, with your team, Mike just kind of establishing it hard. I'd imagine Miami tries to replicate that. I don't know how much success they will will have. So I think attacking the past games here is definitely an intriguing way to go this week. Here's what you guys think of the quarterbacks. My initial instinct was, kind of the same as Gary's. I think the skill player ownership is way too low, but I was sort of thinking of getting in maybe some cheaper stacks from other games so that I could afford two, three expensive high ceiling guys in this game, not necessarily go to the quarterbacks and back into a, because they're not great values individually. But we've seen, including last week, with Dallas, like the Sims really liked that stuff last week, because he was so low, and it was like a lot of correlated high upside stuff with seeding Miami and the game environment could see similar thing this week where, yeah, Dak's price isn't great, but does have a solid ceiling. So we can, how are you pushing the quarterbacks in this one? Well, what I was going to ask you guys is what you're saying makes sense in theory. But how are you executing this? Are you playing, are you playing Dak and CD and then trying to get Tyreeke to come back? I mean, you can't really afford that. So I don't know. Once you start, like I get it, I think this game could shoot out, but once you start trying to build it, you know, like Wattles price is up, Tyreeke is injured, CD is probably the most reasonable piece to play from this game. You know, maybe it's a CD, H&N mini, I don't know, but I just said, when I start clicking buttons here, I don't know what to do. So how would you actually incorporate these guys into lineups? Yeah, like I kind of hinted at, you know, we talk about the Geno stack. If you do the Geno JSN with like a Berks or a Conqueror bring back, then all of a sudden you can play, you know, not the quarterback and Dallas Miami, but you can play CD and H&N and Ferguson or something like that. Some combination of three players there. There's also, we'll talk about the Indiana game, there's like cheap Heinecke stacks. I think there's some ways that you can make it work outside of using the quarterback. It is tough to completely bypass like the Dax CD one in particular, because that correlation is really strong, but how are you, Dax, and I get it. Yeah, I mean, I would intentionally get over the field on one of the two quarterbacks, just because I think it's a really interesting leverage spot. But your point is very sound, Wiggins, where, you know, if you really try to. to get the full game stack here, especially DAX CD, Tyreek, if that's what you're trying to do. You're full on creating an ultra, ultra stars and scrubs lineup that will not project very well, but we're GPB bros. So I would take some shots at that, meaning two, five K or below running backs, a punt tight end, a punt defense, and one of the three K receivers we've been talking about. And I would have a handful of shares of those type of lineups, just in case this is the spot that goes nuke. Right? If you get a 35 point attack game, like we've seen many times this year, and 40 point games that are both Tyreek and CD, you probably need that or come close to needing that. So, you know, and there's enough value on this slate where you can like squeeze it in. Again, it's not going to project very well. I don't think it's going to send very well. But if DAX is going to be like 3.5 percent on, and he's the guy that I think I have a little bit more interest in than Tua, I would, you know, get to five, six percent, I think in my bill. Hey, Leonie, can you talk about the Tyreek projection? Is there any docket in there? And just how do you feel overall about his health here? Yeah, I mean, we pretty much have Tyreek as a full go here. You know, we have a pretty huge ceiling projection on him. We've got him with, you know, almost a 30 percent target share. We might be leaning in a little bit into, you know, a waddle performing well last week and expecting that target share to be pretty solid. We have him at like 22 percent. So two and a half more targets for Tyreek than for bottle. But really don't have much in the way of DAX for him. We are expecting, you know, a little higher run rate than you would normally based on the game total and, you know, spread in this one just because of the way people attack Dallas. So if there's some upside in the Miami passing game, it's that, you know, they have a plus PROE game plan and we're sort of expecting them to be a little bit negative PROE. Not that we're expecting them to like fall on establish it, just relative to the normal expectations for a game with a 50 total. Yeah, I do think there's a reason for concern with Tyreek's health, but this is the highest total game on the slate. And Tyree's going to be sub 10 percent on both sites. So you're only getting it because he's coming off injury, right? Like, this is the classic get out ahead of it, you know, no one's, you know, he's, you're getting the ownership discount because it's the coming off injury week. Usually I feel like we talk about that with running backs more than receivers, but if there's anyone that's going to pop off for a huge ceiling, it's Tyree. So yeah, I'm a fan this week, even though it's a little bit scary. He's, he's got a ton of coverage to in terms of like Justin Jefferson's very cheap on draft kings. Fan dual maybe has a little less coverage, but on DK, Justin Jefferson's cheaper. I think both sites seating lambs cheaper. So even people who go to this game, again, if it's hard to play both those guys together, I think people are going to choose CD over Tyree. Four times than not with the salary discount and the injury stuff you guys are referring to. The, let's go to the Detroit Minnesota game. That's the second highest total game, another dome game. This one's interesting. I think you're going to see some chalk on Nick Mullins on both sites, particularly on draft kings. I think, as I mentioned, Justin Jefferson's pretty cheap on draft king. So we have him as the highest on wide receiver right now. I don't think it's an egregious ownership for his price tag and his talent, but you do start to, I know I get a little weary of going Mullins to Jefferson at the combined ownership that those guys are. And then Detroit's always somewhat difficult to get a handle on because a lot of high ceiling plays on the team, but there's four of them, right? And their salaries are all somewhat adjusted. It keeps ownership off of them, but you do take a lot of salary risk on any one of those players unless Detroit really pops off. I would say five, Leonie. Well, one's cheap, which we'll talk about. I know you're probably, everyone wants to wish cast GMO each week. I think he's going to get steamed really bad here. I'll just throw that out there. This game in general, I'm worried about the whole thing getting steamed, actually. Gary, what do you think about the ownership in here? It seems like it could get away from us on a few of these plays. Yeah, I agree. And if you like this game, which I do, I think a way to kind of create some unique blocks of players is to attack the golf side. It's a little scary to me because for two reasons, one, Mullins is just so much cheaper, improved last week that he could be capable and you're going to need that salary. And two or three, I guess golf on the road, not at the same at home. And three, most important, it's just this no man's land of price for golf at $6.9. How do I not find the money to get the fields even in tournaments there is kind of my thought. Then again, golf is on a long week and coming off a 30 point game. So maybe Momentum's coming back in his favor. So I think that's an interesting way to attack it. If you do want to get into this game, I'd say this. I definitely want a piece of this game in most lineups and that could also include the defenses, but I think that there's both between the type of value on this slate, Jefferson's price on draft games, type of Chandler's price, just generally this dome potential pace up game, I probably want a piece of this game in most of my lineups. Yeah. And we've talked about two. You can build a chalkier stack and just get different elsewhere. If you do attack with the Mullins side, I know Gary's talking in large field, the golf side, you get more unique. I know on Fandall, Laporta really stuck out to me as an option, where it's a little less risky of a play than it is on draft games, but you get a lot of reward there. So I like to Laporta play. Jamison stuff, Wiggins mentioned he might get steamed. He had a season high in route share, I believe, last week cracking the 70% marker and he actually had a few targets to follow this time. I think he's a fine tournament play, but every week people are asking me about Jamison Williams and he's fine. He might break out. You do want to get ahead of it, but if you want to get ahead of it like six weeks in a row at a certain point, it might just not be working. I'm going to throw in a quick cash game question because this is something we were talking about last night. Tell us that we should not play Jamo over Jonathan Mingo, because this is a projection where we have Mingo for two points more, but nobody wants to play Mingo. This does apply to tournaments too, because I think Jamison's going to be higher on the Mingo with people wish casting, but the numbers wouldn't back it up. So just give a number based argument here for Mingo, I think. Yeah, I mean, I think it just comes down to volume here for Mingo. Looking at our projections, we've got Mingo at, you know, a 22% target share of six and a half targets. So he's been like, the volume's there, just is he doing anything with it, you know? Yeah. He sucks. And it's one of those things like the projections are always going to normalize the efficiency a little bit more than they are, you know, the volume. The volume's a bit stickier. And there are some guys that maybe he's just that bad and I'll double check the efficiency stuff. But we don't, I mean, we have him at 6.6 yards per target, which is like, it's very low. Given that Bryce Young's yards per attempt can't even crack six, maybe it is high. But the, you know, Jamison we have for over four targets was like, like that's high for him. You know, like you can look at the game logs, you're really counting on the route share for Jamison's sticking. And I think we've built that like we're assuming he runs the same routes he did last week. There's almost no chance it goes up and there's definitely a chance it comes down. So, you know, do you want to leave 2.3 targets on the table for some efficiency upside? That's the question that you got to ask. There's a lot of, you know, all these cheap guys are pretty volatile. I get it, I get it on feel. I get the Jamison over mega thing on feel and I'll double check the projection, but that's what it comes down to numbers wise, 2.3 extra targets. Yeah. So, I think Jamison, if you look at the guys sub 4k, to me, he feels like the guy is going to be the most known, maybe Traylon Berks, because he's so cheap. I just be careful with Jamison in terms of, I do like him here, but if he pushes 20%, I don't think that's a play you really want to be making. Yeah, and we'll probably make some sort of ownership adjustment there from the numbers that you're going to see, because we do have Mingo kind of as, you know, the chalk guy ahead of Jamison right now, because that's sort of how it projects everywhere, but as we can set on feel, nobody really quite wants to do that. Looking at other games here, the other dome game we get, Colts at Atlanta 45 total. As Gary said, we get more like of these somewhat appealing team game totals than we've had in past weeks. This one, I alluded to a little bit in the Dallas Miami stuff. I have some affinity for high-nicky stacks here as a way to get into the expensive Dallas Miami game. The Atlanta stuff is very frustrating to figure out on a week to week basis. They are largely very negative PROE, but they get into certain game environments, they'll throw, and they are somewhat efficient throwing the ball just given the talent. What they have. I do have some affinity for, again, high-nicky to London, high-nicky to pits, not quite sure if I double it. We also get in this game really interesting running back plays where B-John's coming off a tough week. People aren't really sure what to do. Jonathan Taylor's back, Zach Moss is out. That's probably going to be somewhat chalky just because running back is not super strong this week, so Gary, how are you going to win this game? Yeah, I think Hyniki just got it. my player pool. And I think there's enough other 5k-ish quarterbacks that I'm a little bit more interested in. Even at some of the worst game environments, like I think flakos and in consideration, obviously we've spoke about Mullins and some others that we'll get to as we go along here. But, you know, Ritter has been optimal twice, almost three times if you go back like three weeks ago. I think that was maybe the Josh Allen week. And it was almost him again. So, as you said, like when Atlanta gets into the environments where they do need to be throwing a little bit, there's some efficiency there. Now, Hainaki didn't look great and his one start earlier in the season. I don't know what kind of rust is there. At the same time, like, I don't think there's much of a talent difference between these two players. If this offense has proven that it can support DFS upside, that it has already the season, I think it's worth attacking. I think this was in the uppace in the Thormin's article. And it's an interesting enough spot. Now, I am probably more looking at this in secondary stacks and mini correlations, but I do think that you can definitely consider it from the Hainaki side in game stacks. I'm probably not getting into Minshu this week. And I had a bunch of previous weeks, but I think Atlanta past defense and this just overall environment I'd prefer to attack the Atlanta past game. Wiggins, what are you doing on this game? Probably not playing much of it. I like Bijan. I think his ownership is going to stay in check just because there's so many running back options. And people are just a little remiss to play him for good reason. They were splitting the touch of three way last week. And just I think everyone at some point in the season has been burned by playing Robinson, but it's such a good spot that I just want to lean into the matchup. But as far as game stacking it, I don't know. I mean, you could maybe look at coming from the Minshu to Pitman side and then having Robinson come back, but I just think that's probably enough off the board for the games I play. I'm probably not going to go there, but I get it. I just can't do the London and Pit stuff. I would toss out there. I think Johnny is kind of an interesting sub 3K tight end play on draft Kings, but I'd probably only do it in a game stack. I think I don't think I'd play Minshu one off. Well, it's great Arizona Chicago game. And I do think this field stuff is going to be pretty popular this week. It seems like DJ Morris always higher owned than we're projecting the industries projecting. And this week we do have him as one of the highest owned wide receivers. We have fields. So it's not an amazing quarterback slate. And we have fields sort of give a clear top value at quarterback. He also has the top raw ceiling projection at quarterback for us this week. And he's been a bit more stackable because he's taken a little bit less sacks since he came back. He's scrambling a little bit less. Their play volume has been better than it was last year. Like all these little things add up and become really important when you're stacking and you need like the requisite pass catching volume. So you know him to DJ Morris going to be some obvious. I think Kamat's going to carry some ownership. I think Mooney is somewhat interesting when I was looking at cheap wide receivers. He had his two highest route shares the last two weeks. His targets for outrun was a little bit higher the last two weeks too. So I'm somewhat interested in taking stabs on Mooney if I play fields just to differentiate a little bit in this stack. Not that you have to, but that stuck out to me. The Arizona side is difficult. You get tray. Grunkowski is Adam calls him just perpetually underpriced on draft King. So pretty good play there. He's he's fine on fan duel, but just the catch volume really favors the DK scoring. We have to keep our eyes on Dorch who's questionable. We have Hollywood Brown out already. Even with him out, we don't have like super obvious values in the Arizona passing game. You can go to Michael Wilson. You could go to Dorch if you please, but if Dorch is out, then you like we get some cap relief options. Yeah. What does it look like if Dorch is out? Is that Michael Wilson popping then or somehow Michael Wilson's person? I think you'd get some rundown more back in our lives. How could you forget about rundown more? You kind of have to, you know, just looking at it. Maybe some, you know, Zach Pascale's target share would come up. I don't know if I'd want to play him. Wilson and rundown would be the two that I'd be interested in. There's another dude Elijah Higgins that was floating around too. Yeah, he popped up a couple times last week. I know Michael Wilson goo-sags for you. Andrew, but man, he was optimal in week four at 26.6 draft King's points. Like show me that ceiling once as a rookie here at 3,700 with, you know, same exact price as Jamo, right? I'd be, I'm interested in Michael Wilson already on a bringbacks and on bringbacks and stuff like that here. And now if Dorch is out, I'd be extra interested, especially in line of said I don't have McBride. I think he's a really interesting pivot because I will get the good truck bad truck in a second, but I don't look at field tour McBride on draft King's as bad chalk here. So if I'm looking for ways to kind of get unique combinations with correlation, Michael Wilson certainly stands out. I think with this stack, you're probably the most popular stack you'll see on the site will be fields DJ Moore, Trent McBride, don't you think? So I would be very careful about the ownership if you are going that route. I really like the mooney call. He's cheap. He's had seven targets, I think, in back to back weeks. And he's a type of player that you're just hoping he hits on a big play. Yeah, I would probably be trying to mix in him or Michael Wilson or just some pieces in there that you feel confident are going to be lower owned and then maybe need to get weird with the rest of line up because there's just going to be so much ownership on fields and more and McBride here. Yeah, I mean, you can go double tight end in that came too and throw commit in your flex and like even though all those guys are owned at least that combination probably won't be as as owned. But yeah, finding ways to get unique within that stack is will probably be pretty, pretty important, I would say. So Gary, you mentioned there's some other 5K quarterback stacks. You like, I think you threw Flacco in there. I think Flacco is interesting and, you know, it just kind of depends how the game goes. But like if they get behind, he's going to chuck for sure. They've had a positive password of expectation three straight weeks. I'm a little bit worried. They just dominate Houston in this one. But, you know, it's only a three point spread. I know Wiggins was saying before he was somewhat surprised that the team total for Houston being as high as it is. If you get Cleveland behind, that stack's been money and it looks like it could be again. If you want to talk a little bit about the Flacco stack, if there's any other ones for the cheap quarterbacks that you're looking at. Yeah, I mean, it's hilarious that we're a week away from 2024 and we're talking about a Joe Flacco case kingdom game. We're considering it for DFS, but here I am. I'm not considering the kingdom side. Really, I think printbacks are viable there. But yeah, I mean, Flacco, and I think you said it last night, too, against like the 44 and 45 past stamps or whatever it's been the last two weeks, like I can't ignore that. He also looks as good as he has and a lot of that's the product of the team and the office line and et cetera. But looks as good as he has in years that you have guys to stack him with. He's got a real report with in Joker right now. Mario looks pretty good right at the moment. It's just a side. And the Texans, like we, I mean, sure, a lot of it was with Stroud, but they've gotten beat through the air consistently and they found themselves in back and forth environments like the majority of this season in case kingdom at the very least, they'll sling it. So like I think from a pushing perspective, you know, I think it can stay there. So I think Flacco is really, really interesting. So curious you guys thoughts there. And then the last thing I'll just say is I will talk about the Trevor Lauren stuff and we'll see there. But I think if he's out, Bethard probably makes my pool too, just from match up alone. So that's the other guy I had in mind for from a cheap play perspective. Yeah, I know the last week, the sims really liked Flacco doubles. I think it was one of the highest, it might even been a Flacco triple that you guys are reviewing on from the finals, one of the highest sim teams. The nice thing about this game is that you can stack it and not spend a whole lot of Saturdays. So this is, this is another spot where you could stack the game and then you get your pieces from the Dallas Miami game. There's a few different ways to do that. And I think that's been my biggest takeaway from the show this morning is that that seems like a really good way to approach us like get get a cheap stack in and then get some exposure to the Dallas Miami game. I think my preferred way if I was going to this would probably be something like a Flacco, Nijoku throwing another pass catcher and then have single Terry on the other side. Yeah. Yeah. And Gary touch on Jack's full Tampa Bay a little bit. I do think the Baker doubles are going to sim well. He seems to sim well each week. The correlation just seems really high. He's sitting in, you know, we get the breakout game from Godwin and he's still not going to be owned a lot. I don't think Evans is perpetually under owned for his ceiling. I'm a little bit worried we get some Calvin Ridley steam if Lawrence is in. It sounds like people really want to take advantage of, you know, the Tampa Bay pass narrative, which is real, you know, teams throw more frequently against Tampa Bay than they normally, you know, would first a neutral opponent. So all right, let's go to good chalk bad chalk and we'll start at quarterback. Gary, I'll throw it to you because I know you mentioned already that you feel just good chalk. Yeah, but if you've heard me on this show, the couple of times I filled in over the years, if there's one position, I don't worry about chalk at almost ever its quarterback, I'm really just concerned with getting the right play more than anything else. And of course, you could take into account some of ownership with cumulative ownership and product ownership of quarterback. But ultimately, I'm trying to hit on the right stack of the week and I look at this field spot. and have a hard time poking too many holes in it. You know, 7-1, on draft Kings, I think is underpriced, even on Fandall A3. And you know, when he was optimal for those two weeks in the middle of the season, it was through the air, right? It was like 400 yards and 300 yards and four touchdowns, right? And now the last four weeks, he's come back from injury. It's been like, I think he's averaging 12.25 rushes per game over the last four weeks. You know, all you need is one week where he combines these two things together and doesn't even have to be to the extent that we've seen. Each of these things, we can get 80 yards of a touchdown on the ground and 250 and 3 in the air. And we're feeling really, really good about just some fields here in a really good matchup. So yeah, I have a hard time looking at this as bad chalk. In my 150 set, for example, I probably will have, I'll probably be over the field in all honesty. And that's with me liking a ton of these other quarterbacks. I just think it's a good spot. - Yeah, right now, I think I'm with Gary. We've seen two, just a quarterback position. People are getting used to playing these cheap quarterbacks. We're talking about it a lot as a way to play Dallas Miami. So I'm gonna do it some, but there's definitely outcomes on the weak where fields just outscores any of the top three owned quarterbacks by like, you know, 15 to 20 points raw. And you're really gonna have a tough time competing with that. Mullins, chalk, Wiggins. That one, I'm a little less keen on playing into it, even not caring as much about QB chalk. The one thing I'll say is I think the offense and the coaching and like the talent around him does insulate him a little bit. And we know like from a yards per temp standpoint, he's been pretty solid, he's gonna chalk. He's gonna throw some egregious intersections, but he's gonna put up some numbers. So I'm a bit more torn on Mullins. But I feel like right now, I'd rather get different with my cheap quarterbacks. How about you? - I think there's enough comparable quarterbacks in that range that you know are gonna be at last ownership. I did wanna ask you a question about the projections. When a game goes to overtime and you have a pretty small sample size of data on a guy like Mullins, how does that, is that inflating his projection this week haven't gone to overtime last week or how does that work within the projection system? - It's not inflating 'cause we're not like taking Mullins as like total pass yards per game as the way we're projecting things. We're projecting how many plays we expect to be in this game. You know, his passive efficiency we're gonna use from overtime and how that affects things. But the raw numbers aren't going to just swing it. - Okay. Yeah, I just think let's see. We have him as the second most owned quarterback, which I think checks out. And it would not surprise you at all if he fails. And then like, you know, on the Detroit side, which you really need is that game to be a back and forth. And I'm a little concerned, golf splits against the blitz are not good. And the Vikings are gonna be up in, you know, his growl big times. So I just worry about the bottom falling out on Detroit. We've seen it happen plenty of times. I know it's in a dome, but playing that game in the chalk, I just think there's enough other games that you can hit and you know that the ownership's not gonna be there. So it's one of those spots where if you flip it and mullens is like 25% and Jeff Jefferson's like 35% or 40% and small field stuff, that's not something that I want to be doing on this site. - Yeah, and I think those numbers are possible in some of the small field high-stake stuff. I do think people will end up on fields in cash, but like, you know, there's some mullens, Jefferson stuff that's like pretty close to optimal. That's gonna, you know, flood a lot of the cashy type of lineups for a small field. - Yeah, and I think fields, you know, I agree the fields is good chalk, but as I already mentioned, just be very careful if you play him with DJ Moore and McBride because that's what everyone's going to do. - Let's go to running back and I feel like he's not a great running back slate. As a result, we do get some spread out ownership. It's also not a huge slate. Like, it's nine game slate because even though there's no buy-wigs, we have two game Saturday slate, we have the three game Monday slate. - Yeah, small slate of the year. - Funnily enough, after post buys, yeah. - Is it really the smallest it wow? So, I believe so, I believe so. I think 10 has been the smallest up to this point. - So running back is really interesting to me. I'm excited to talk about a few guys when we get to the GPP section, but as far as identifying the chalk and the chalk I'm staying away from, like, most of the guys that are chalky definitely are in somewhat shaky environments according to like our ownership projections right now, at least I'm a little bit worried about Ty Chandler coming off the big performance. I think the volume's definitely gonna be there for him, but it just feels, I'm not, I'm worried we're a little bit hot on the base projection. And I just think there's enough guys in the mid-6K range to get off of him that I don't wanna play him into really big chalk, but I don't do you guys think he gets as chalky as we have him on decan. Fand will it's a bit more muted because of his price, but on DK, we do have him kind of in a tier of his own. - Yeah, I mean, yeah, go ahead, wait. - Yeah, I think he's pretty easily the most down-running back on the site. Assuming Madison is out, which we have Madison projected out at the moment, but it sounded like there was some chatter that maybe he could go, we'll keep an eye on that. But as it stands now, yeah, I mean, we've got him up at 33%, next guy Brissault 24, I am with you that I would be a little remiss to play him into heavy chalk when I think that there's a lot of comparable plays. You're not gonna give up that much projection and you can gain a lot on ownership, just playing in the same price range even. - Yeah, same boat for me. I don't think it's the worst chalk I've ever seen in if Madison's out. I do think that there's a strong chance there's a floor score here that doesn't necessarily kill you, but for the largest field stuff, I would probably be trying to get some leverage here. And I think there's enough guys, whether it's in his exact year or like getting up five, six, 700 bucks to kind of pivot off, even in like Fort, like Hubbard, for example, like we got half the ownership or more on Shuba. Like I think that's an interesting way to attack this in the exact same price here for half the ownership or even more than that. So I'm probably leaning just slightly bad chalk, but I don't think if Madison's out, it's the worst I've ever seen. - Yeah, we should know. - Let me just throw another thing while the time was sitting on, he was saying that even if Madison played, that he still really likes Chandler here, and I do think that if Madison were in, you'd see Chandler's ownership come way down, and then I think he becomes a pretty interesting GPP player at muted ownership. - Well, that's the key. What would it become? 'Cause I don't mean we saw last week, him really take over to that backfield. There's been the coach speak all week that this is his backfield now or largely his backfield. So I'm curious how squeeze would he get or how much would it decrease? Because I'm skeptical that it would too much. But if it does, I agree with you, Andrew. I think it's a great deal. - Yeah, I don't know what you think, Leoni. What would his projection look like both from an ownership and an output standpoint? - Yeah, I think the fantasy point projection would come down to, I think he'd still be projecting ahead of Hubbard, you know, just keeping that comparison going. I think he'd still be, mine's thinking he'd be projecting like around like 15 points or the low 15s, rather than the low 16s. So I'll be losing about a point of projection, which still keeps him as, you know, one of the top two values on the slay under F Kings. It's mostly the rush share that I'd be a little bit worried about because we have him at nearly an 80% share of the team's designed carries. And that's, yeah, that's just a really big number for anybody. And I think that might come down with Madison, maybe more towards like 70%. I'm already worried we're a little bit high at 78% itself. I think it's probably the right number more times than not. It just, there's very little upside to that number and a lot of downside depending on how things go. But as far as the other options, you can see we've got one, two, three, four, five, six guys with small field projected ownership above 20%. Bijan, JT, Singletary, Rashad White, Breeze Hall, the ones besides Chandler. And I really don't know how people are gonna approach this. I could see Singletary getting squeezed. We don't have a great projection on them. It's not a great matchup. You know, it's very clearly a bad matchup and everybody can see that. So I don't really have interest in playing him even if there's a risk of him being chalky, but I could see him getting squeezed. Curious what you guys think people do between like Rashad White, JT and Bijan, because you can make pro and con arguments, I think for all three of those guys, so we can, you know, what do you think the ownership? And you think those guys end up split or do you feel good about one of those guys getting squeezed or steamed? - I think you're spot on with Singletary. I don't think people wanna play him in this matchup, but as we already noted, I mean, the Houston team total is almost 19, which is pretty healthy, all things considered. Singletary had like 25 carries last week, five targets. I think the big difference with Case Keenum in there is that he's gonna get a lot more check now and CJ Stroud wasn't throwing a lot of check down. So Singletary is a play that makes sense on paper and it would not shock me if he comes in closer to 10% than 20% ownership. So he kind of stands out as probably the safest play from an ownership standpoint. The rest of the guys, I don't know, man. You know, it's like talking in Discord, people don't wanna play Brees Hall, they don't wanna play Bijan, but I think they'll just lean into the matchups and play them. But I don't think anyone outside a chain there gets gets away from us, you know, I think you're looking at like, you know, 15 to 25% on the remaining guys. Yeah, Fandole, it's a little bit different. You get Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones in that range. Breeze Hall drops off a little bit there, just due to price. And JT is really expensive on Fandole, so he drops off a little bit. But it's a similar dynamic where you've got like six to seven guys at above 20%. That it seems people are going to focus on. We should know we think AJ Dylan's going to play our projection now does reflect that for Aaron Jones. The market, I don't think is like fully updated. So it's possible his ownership comes down a little bit more than we're projecting there, even though he should, you know, it's a great, great matchup. And he should be, you know, the clear lead in carries even with Dylan back there any thoughts on our beast team or squeeze. Yeah, I love Aaron Jones this week. And honestly, if Dylan's in and it brings him into single digits, I love him even more. So I think Aaron Jones is a really great play. Obviously some inherent downside there is had a relief low for this year. They've been stingy with how they use them to say the least. I think that they empty the clip this week and kind of put the ball in their best players hands, especially if Reed is out. You know, with just kind of like their other catalyst and an offense or as you come back these days. I'd imagine they have to use him matchup is good, right? You can run on Carolina. You can't pass on them. This is a really solid spot for Aaron Jones. Yeah, I think kind of from a macro view of the way I'm approaching running back this week is there's almost no way I'm playing two seven K guys in tournaments. I don't think I want white and Taylor or one of those two guys with the dolphins guy. I just don't think that's the case. Now I think the Miami guys are very interesting contrarian pays plays which we'll talk about in a little bit here, but from there like I don't think white and Taylor and necessarily good chalk. Taylor, I don't think he's good. I mean, he's been on the shelf, not a great matchup. 72 is expensive for running back this week. I want to get my salary elsewhere. White, a little bit different, one of the most secure roles in the league. I know Evan was talking about last night how he thinks there's like easily six catches form in this game. I would agree with that. I think the floor is awesome. The ceiling though, you know, and 74 is not super expensive, but he's the most expensive running back on this slate. The ceiling, I still question if we have like a 30 in there, like I think he's capped out in the high 20s. And, you know, I think there's enough five and six K guys that can get you that this week. So my, my, my inkling is to kind of go from like the, I don't know, be Jean breeze hall tier and below and kind of that be the majority of my pool with the exception of some contrarian stuff with the Miami side of things. Let's go to receiver, we'll go a little quicker receiver. I think it's a little clear what's going to happen. DK, Justin Jefferson, up top, going to be the most owned wide receiver. One of, I think the two or three most owned wide receivers, Garrett Wilson and DJ more in the mid tier. Could see more separating from Wilson a little bit more. Just because, you know, fields is going to be chalky and people always seem to be a little weary of the New York jet stuff as far as cheap guys go. Mingo is going to carry some ownership. We've already talked about James and Williams, probably getting steamed up a little bit closer to where mingo is at. And if Jaden read is out, Dantevian wicks is going to be very chalky. I think he already could get steamed a little bit either way, quite frankly. For me personally, I'd be fading wicks if read is in. If he gets steamed, I just think it's a setup where we might not get enough pass volume for Green Bay to make this, you know, all worthwhile. And there's some meaningful downside, but he's been fantastic in terms of earning targets on a route basis and his yards per target so far this season. Wiggins thoughts on the wider super chalk on DK. Yeah, I don't have, I don't have any really strong leans on any of these plays. I think for me, the way I'm attacking the slate is just, I'll be hitting game stacks and then kind of building receivers around that. Like I don't have any strongly not any individual receiver. I was just kind of clicked it around with Cleveland stacks. You know, one guy that's in that lower range, so I don't think it's going to get played who projects OK is Elijah Moore. And we have a story, Amari on the road situation, so that's always going to be a bump for everyone else given that he can't play on the road. I know you love that way, only, but you know, so it's like you can mix in guys like that who project fine and aren't going to get played. So I just be careful like wicks, man, I like him, but he's going to be what 40, 50% and small field stuff if read is out. I just think there's very high. Yeah, there's some perfectly fine pivots in that range. It's a better place. Yeah, I agree with you guys on wicks. I actually think we're light his ownership now, even with read projected in. I think he ends up 15 plus percent easy. There's, you know, four threes a nice price and there's a lot of hype there. And I would call it bad shock with you guys in large or small field, really. I mean, it's not a great matchup with the Carolina pass game. I rather attack the air and join side of it and kind of think that OK, if they have success through the air, it's going to be with him as well. So I think that's a way to do or you can do a craft in there as like a punta, you know, what I don't even know how expensive he is. But you know, I would look to the pivots in that spot. And then, you know, these other guys, I think we can say you hit the nail on the head. Like I think I think attacking this three game stacks is the way to do it and just kind of let chalk fall, fall where it may. Yeah, you know, Mingo, I don't think great chalk, London, a little bit questionable. Everyone else here, I can, I can really make a case for I think Jefferson's way too cheap on draft games. I have a hard time calling that bad chalk, DJ more to cheap and in the best game stack of the week. And then Garrett Wilson far too cheap great matchup like they're all good spots. What I will say is if you want to attack like Calvin really heavy, for example, I would just make sure you cover your spot. I always talk about covering your spots. If I'm playing a lot of Calvin really and you're like a mass entry player, make sure you have Parker Washington, make sure you have Jamal Agnew. It's a concentrated offense this week. Make sure you have Evan Ingram. Like I would just be doing it that way rather than worrying too much about the chalk of receiver this week. I think you can decide some of the cheap guys, it's hard to poke holes here and a lot of these. Yeah, I do think Ridley and JSN are two guys. I was also worried would carry a little bit more ownership than we're currently projecting DJ more for me. Like you guys had probably not going to play him outside of field stacks. But you know, if I'm playing fields, I'm probably playing DJ more even if I'm playing some mooney stuff. On Fandool, Ridley's really going to get played cheap price there. And I think CD is going to be the most owned of the expensive wide receivers where you get Justin Jefferson only a little bit cheaper than him. You get Tyree Kale, I think in the 10 Ks yet 10 K there. So probably going to be CD over on Fandool. Let's go to tight end. Yeah, just quick note on CD, he's not in the cash consideration on DK, but he is on Fandool. So I think his ownership will be meaningfully higher on Fandool than draft Kings. Yeah, definitely. Graph Kings, you know, Tremick Bride just pretty under price there. So I think he's going to be kind of the highest owned of the tight ends. And then you get Camette and in joke through a sort of like the mid tier tight ends and Uncle is the cheap tight end that, you know, those are the guys we have his highest projected own, I think that's probably right on DK. McBride's just murdered me all year long. I think if it wasn't for McBride, I think I would have won the Thunderdome three times. And here I am looking at stuff and I'm kind of like, I think maybe not playing McBride's the way to go this like just for a roster construction standpoint, not against anything against McBride individually. But that's my initial inkling on DK is to maybe try and hope McBride just, you know, has has a low teens game and it is. There is a decent amount of risk for, you know, a tight end in the high five case, but we've seen with him the target volumes been so sure that, you know, he's not like a normal tight end value type of guy. I do think that there's a possibility that Arizona just can't move the ball. The Chicago defense has been playing really well. The game is in Chicago. I think it's kind of a neutral match up from McBride individually. But I mean, it's just wouldn't surprise me at all if the Bears defense shows up in Arizona just doesn't, doesn't do it a whole lot here. So, you know, and the price is getting up to, he's still underpriced, but he's getting a lot closer to being fairly priced. So, I think he's an okay feed. Yeah, because you just made the argument for a no bring back in a field stack, which I think is really viable this week as a way to get different because I think everyone's instinct is going to be bring back McBride as you mentioned before. So, I think if you really, if you feel that way and Chicago's defense has been playing really well, just kind of more of a macro take, I think the no bring back on the Chicago stuff is interesting. That said, just to touch on the McBride piece, it's hard to call them bad shock with, you know, with what that role is right now. I really is. I mean, I don't know if I think I'm with you, you know, I think I think I'd end up under the field and just kind of hope play into the like let me get a little uniqueness with the no bring back stuff and let me play into some of these other guys. So, like all the plays, besides maybe Laporta and like Ferguson, this week have ownership at tight ends. So, it's like I'm not getting so much leverage trying to get to some of these other solid projected plays either. Yeah, I got I don't think there's guys where I'm like, I'm going to play this guy over McBride because this guy's, you know, better play. It's like I'm going to go cheap at tight end and maybe getting some ceiling guys elsewhere. Fan dual is a little bit more mix. I mean, you know, McBride's up to 7k and the volume stuff doesn't matter quite as much. You get more of a mix on Fandall, you get Hawkinson in that mix. I have an Ingram in that mix. So, just just pointing that out there. >> Everyone have an Ingram. court touchdowns. Yes, until he could last three weeks now. Yeah, he couldn't until he could. Yeah, that works. Let's go to okay, GPP pivots. On the Giants, you can never score touchdowns for what it's worth. There was just no four years worth of not scoring touchdowns on the Giants. Yeah, the I think we like we hit on most of the stuff with stacks for quarterbacks. One guy I'm like vaguely interested in. We didn't talk about his Kyler. Just see a little bit of a ceiling there. And if you did want to play McBride, you could play it with Kyler. You might also get a second really cheap guy. He can get there on some rushing stuff. Other than that, I think we talked about all the guys that, you know, I'd be considered anybody else for you guys. Yeah, Kyler makes my player pool, but I think it's risky for all the reasons Waines was just talking about with the Bears defense and it's hard to not want to have the field side there. But I do think from a straight pivot standpoint, it's worth considering for sure. No, I mean, I don't think I'll touch on the Baker stuff. Again, obviously exploded for the 30 point game last week. What I will say, I don't think there's any kind of real, you know, a trend here. But these games seem to come in waves over the last couple of years when these low end quarterbacks hit. They seem to hit multiple weeks in a row or at least be viable multiple weeks in a row. And he has another great match up here. So like Ritter comes about early this season, he was optimal two weeks in a row. Bakers being right in the 20s for a lot of this year just to kind of explode for that 30 point game. I'm a little skeptical, but it is a good matchup. So I feel like I should probably consider him more than I already am right now. And you know where you're stacking him too. So I have a question for you, Leonie. What about Tanael? We haven't mentioned him. You could stack him double stack with Berks and Hopkins have a pretty highly projected team. No one's going to play him. I probably won't either, but any interest on your own. Not really. I just don't think the upsides there. I just have a hard time seeing this ceiling. I don't know, maybe we're not being imaginative enough. I'd almost rather play like drivers in the end. Honestly, that been Ryan Tanael just with the pass rate for the Jets, like even with these bad quarterbacks has been like kind of decent. And you get Garrett Wilson there. So I'd almost rather do that if I was going super gross. I'm probably not going to play either of those guys. Yeah. Honestly, I think that's right. Like I first of all, it's a great matchup for what for Goods Washington. If I, I might do 1% Simion this week. I mean, I know that seems like it'll be a little like I might just sprinkle it in. It's a weird week where I think you can go up and down the board at quarterback. So if I'm going below 5K, I don't think I'm going to Tanael. Tanael hasn't really shown a ceiling since AJ Brown left. And I think he's he's on the other side of that hill at this point. But if I go below 5K, it's probably Simion Irhainiki, which is freaking hilarious that those of the two names I'm we're talking about here. And then again, we'll see what happens with the Jacksonville stuff. You know, because I think if Trevor Lawrence plays, I think he's a good play. If not, I don't know. I really don't know what kind of silly CG bathroom has if there's any at all. But I love attacking that Tampa Bay matchup. I've been doing it all year and it's been successful. So yeah. Yeah. What a season. Some of the names we're talking about. Rashad White, you know, most expensive running back and one of the chalkiest. That's right. I started my super flex league last week. I started Mitch Trebuski and Joe Flacco. And then go live, baby. Go live. Let's go to running back. I enjoy if you running back plays this week. Gary sound like you weren't super into the mid tier. But I kind of there's three guys that stick out to me a decent bit. And I actually, I think you're on a couple of them, but Pollard, H&N and Kenneth Walker were sort of like the three that that stuck out to me as like on a slate where we've got like six to seven guys. It's pretty spread out ownership. Those guys aren't going to be among those guys. I don't think there's any amazing plays. And I think all these guys have like good cases for for pretty high ceiling. That was surprised. In some cases, our projections on those guys were, you know, even further behind, you know, some of the options that are going to be a bit chalkier. So those were the three that I was, you know, really iron up when I was scanning through stuff. Yeah, I guess just clarify. I think the mid tier is fine. Sorry, sorry. I think the mid tier is fine to good. I think it's the high end of really white and tailored that I'm mostly going to be avoiding. And if it comes back to higher, it comes back to haunt me. I think the, I think everything below seven K is pretty good. And even HN, like we'll talk about him here in a second. I think he's strong. I mean, Gibbs not coming through the ownership too. So like, these are, these are strong tournament pivots for sure. Yeah, you mentioned Gibbs. You get the Detroit guys. My gummeries, I think in play on Fandall. The other guy didn't mention who I really think it could get squeezed by ETN to, you know, so there's three that I really like. But like, there's like five to six. I could see myself, you know, the Sims might talk me off. But I could see myself being quite contrained at running back. And the other thing too is like, I'm playing the smaller field stuff. So sometimes these like small gaps in ownership get like outsize. And I just feel like if I play two or three of those guys, you know, one of them might come in super low and be really important. I did that the one week I played Henry and Bijan and Henry ended up getting steamed. But Bijan came in at like three percent. So sometimes when there's groups of players where I'm like, I don't know which one gets squeezed. But I like this whole group. I'll try and get a few players from that group in my lineup at the same time and just, you know, roll the dice on the ownership side of things. But yeah, Wiggins, um, thoughts at a contrarian running back place. Yeah. I think you're not giving up that much projection. And there's a handful of guys that you can feel really good that their ownership is going to be low. The ones that stand out to me on draft Kings or Kenneth Walker, Achan who's probably my favorite and Gibbs. And then I kind of include Singletarian that conversation. He's definitely going to be a cut above ownership wise and the other three guys I just mentioned. But I feel fairly confident. Singletarian's going to come in lower than the main group. And I think any of those other guys that you see up here in green would not surprise me if they hit 25 percent, 30 percent. So you're just kind of rolling the dice a little bit on how the ownership shakes out. But if you get into that tier, I was just mentioning they're all going to be sub 10 percent. But Achan to me is probably the best. We just know what he's capable of. I think if you, you know, as I've been messing with Team throughout the show, like if you are going to get guys from that Miami game, like the mini, I think I like the most is CD lamb and Achan. And yeah, you just hope Achan breaks a couple long run speeds up the game and you'll probably get them at 5 percent ownership. Yeah, I think I'm a little bit worried he comes up a touching ownership. I don't think it would be a ton. I think and on Fandall, he could be in the double digits. But even there, like his price tag is so good. And he's got a huge gap between, you know, his ceiling projection and his base projection. Like you can kind of see it on Fandall here. Like him and Breeze, we have it like the same base projection, basically a little bit more ownership on Breeze. But then Achan really like starts to get ahead when you look at the ceiling projection. So I like the Achan a call, call a lot. Most are seems like he's fine, but he did mispractice a couple of times this week. So there's just a few things that could go right for Achan. We already know he's a nightmare to project from an efficiency standpoint. Just given how much of an outlier he is. One cheaper guy wanted to ask you guys about usage was really disappointing last week. This was, you know, I was tilting the thunder dome I played Antonio Gibson instead of Tramick bride, which cost me the W. But at 5200 and like no ownership, you know, the massacres to me is somewhat tempted to go back. Yeah, me too. And you know, if you're able to do anything on the jets, it's that there's been success again on the ground this year. I think in the largest field, a lot of stuff you can look at Chris Rodriguez as well, who led the, who led the way in in Russia is for them last week. He's 4,500, I think on draft gangs. I don't know if he's any good. I don't know if there's any ceiling in there. I'm just looking for ways to full on save money, attack a matchup, you know, you know, kind of what is a little bit of a wonky week. I can see that happening. It's, you know, I think it's probably very thin, but that's so it's a large field only thing. But yeah, I think one of Gibson or Rodriguez is going to be in play for me in in Laos. Rodriguez was very clearly getting the goal line work. Yeah. Didn't have much success with it, but very clearly getting it over Gibson. It was, it was a weird game though in general, but yeah, we might be a little hot on Gibson and a little light on Rodriguez. It's, it's tough to tell. Yeah, I think I had 10 carries last week. I just don't think this coaching staff. I mean, as long as Rivera has been around, he just doesn't like Antonio Gibson. So it's like, you know, to what extent, you know, when do we just kind of buy that? And it's not like where, you know, Gibson's role is in the past game. Like, it's not a great match up for the past game here against it as I know that Miami had had success there last week. But you know, I just, I'm a little worried about Gibson. I'm not totally rolling it off, but I think it's, I think it's something to, to consider on the Rodriguez front. The last thing I want to mention before, you know, to get off totally off of the HN train, are we not considering most are dead all here? I mean, he's no injury designation. All he does is score touchdowns. No one's going to play him at all. I think it's, it's worth talking about tournaments here. Yeah, I think in large field, especially in this small field stuff, I think I'm just going to go HN like the past game role has been a little bit better for him lately too. And it just, you know, I think, you know, but it's, you're right. You know, most are it's been scoring touchdowns at an absolutely incredible rate. So it has to be somewhat considered. [BLANK_AUDIO] I should say we did move a little bit of work from most to HN on the mispractices. So if you think that that's a mistake and most of it's completely fine, you could probably tack on a point to his projection and take a point off HN's. But regardless, like the ceiling projection on both, these guys is quite strong. - Yeah, I also think HN better, by the way, I was just, I wanted to throw the name out there. I think it's, you shouldn't be completely ruling it out based on what we've seen this season. - So I'm gonna ask about Jerome Ford. I kinda feel like I'm done with Jerome Ford. Like, we haven't seen a ceiling yet, which doesn't mean it's not there. I know that means, you know, it could still be there, but there's too many other places that I like this weekend. It seems like people always talk themselves into Ford, so it's never like super low owned anyways. Let's go to wide receiver. And I think all of us are going to let our stacks determine our wide receivers to a good extent if you've been listening to what we're saying. The Miami Dallas game on Draft Kings. Like, you just, there's just so much ceiling you can get in at like not a ton of ownership 'cause it's hard to fit between CD, Tyreec, Waddle. So I'm gonna try and make some of those guys work. You guys have any preferences at wide receiver, but there's someone that fits with a stack you like or a one off. Yeah, I mean Tyreec, I think is awesome on Draft Kings at sub 10%, I think he's excellent. Assuming he's out there, I think they go right back to what their offense has been all year, which has been Tyreec as the first, second, and third option. I think he's still hoping to set this record and I know Adam was saying on a podcast earlier in the week, I think he needs like to have it at 152 yards or whatever over the last three games to do it. If anyone could do that, it's Tyreec Hill, right? Like I don't even think, like he mentioned that number. I'm like, oh, that's not crazy. That's not crazy at all. So, you know, nine six, it's expensive for maybe a less than 100% Tyreec, but I'm just gonna go off both if he's out there. I'm gonna assume he's right. And you know, I've been light on Tyreec a lot of this year just 'cause there's always every week, great ceiling rider severs and he's coming in at 25% every week at, you know, in this type of same price range. And if I could finally get him a single digit ownership, I have to attack that. So maybe it'll come back to bite me, but I'll be heavy Tyreec this week. Yeah, I like the call. And like Miami really needs to win. He's like, they have a very tough closing schedule. Like they can't afford to mess around at all. You know, I like, you know, as far as stack stuff goes, you know, Omari with Flaco, like the Tampa Bay guys. I think if you do do DAC, you could make an argument for Brandon Cooks in there with a little bit of Cap relief. We've hit on JSN with Gina one guy who's maybe not a stack dude, but Jordan Addison, we've seen some really high ceiling games from him. And there's some leverage component there, off of Justin Jefferson, off of Ty Chandler. He does not project great. I'm not positive if I go there, but he does check a few of the GP boxes. We can see our interest in Addison or anyone else at all here. I don't think so. One guy we didn't mention, whose receiver's project pretty well is Trevor Lawrence. Assuming he goes, are you guys considering playing him at all in like a double stack situation? Or do you think you're just playing into too much ownership with your receivers and a banged up quarterback? - Nope, I play him. If he's out there, I'm gonna play him a little bit. Now, it's been a little bit of a rough season for T-Law, where we've only had a couple of usable weeks, right? But second half of the season's been much better. And this was the same thing it saw last year, where he really came on in the second half of the season. I would be a little bit worried about the concussion slash ankle tags, you know, that's never great, but this is a really good matchup. And I like that the receivers, and I like the prices on the receivers. So I'd be considering all of Ridley, Parker Washington, Jamal Agnew, also, who's been optimal like three times over the last three years, and had 15 points last week. And then Ingram, of course. So I wouldn't play Washington and Agnew together, but any kind of doubles combination of those other four guys, I think is very much in play. So yeah, Lawrence is on my radar. - Yeah, I'm interested to see what the routes are between Agnew and Washington. Washington's routes stayed pretty decent, which is why he's got a little bit better projection. But Agnew, as you've mentioned, he's just made a ton of big plays over the years. So if his routes actually did come up, he'd be really, really interesting. Some of the, I mentioned like, I really like Mooney as a cheap guy, Gary mentioned Michael Wilson too. Like, I think these guys are in play. You know, I was dogging the Jameson thing a little bit. I'm mostly having fun. I'm like, people ask me about him every week, but I do think like, even if he got to like low double digits ownership, that like, that's fine for a ceiling that's potentially, you know, there. And at least we have the route share up to 70% or so last week. But yeah, I don't have as many wide receiver plays. I feel like that I really like as I do running back, it's gonna be very stacked ribbon or Dallas Miami stuff. - I think one guy that we haven't brought up at all and just kind of this team as a whole is Aamonra. I think the lion's ownership in general here is really low this week, especially coming off a week where all these guys were awesome in a week 15 on that Saturday game. You know, we talked about Gibbs and Montgomery already, but Aamonra 14%, I think that's probably right. I don't think it's gonna get steamed up too much. I don't think it'll get squeezed too much. But eight two in this matchup where again, we've been able to, you know, Vikings have gotten themselves in real back and forth environments all year. I like him quite a bit in this spot, even if it's like a mini with Jefferson and just if I find my contrarian pieces elsewhere, I think that's a totally reasonable play. So he kind of just sticks out as like a very efficiently owned maybe a little light for what I'd want to grab. All those guys too, I won't talk about Titans too, but the lion's in general just seemed under owned to me this week. - Yeah, I agree, it's just, it's so hard to pick one, you know, it's like they're all kind of expensive for their positions and it can be difficult especially if they want to establish it, you know, but there's some swing on the pass rate. Like if you get the pass rate, you get the game environment going the correct way, it's awesome, they get ahead and it turns into a slog, you know, the floor's not great. So it's definitely an interesting dynamic. - Yeah, we need a bank on Mullins pushing again and you know, that's who knows if he's gonna do that two weeks in a row, but I think, I think I would say game environment will go that direction again, I would lean, but yeah. - Let's go to Titan and again, it's like a small slate as we've alluded to. So it's hard to find like a great play who's not owned a lot. So I went off the Detroit stuff though. I think I'm a fan duel that LaPorta is really strong. Like if we saw unceiling, we have him with the second highest ceiling. I'd argue on feel that, you know, maybe the ceiling's even better than McBride's with the fan duel scoring. And I think he's gonna be meaningfully less owned. So I do like LaPorta quite a bit on fan duel where the combination of the price and the scoring system, I think suits him. It's harder for me to get there on draft Kings where like you really need the touchdowns and he's like 700 more than McBride. So I'm a little bit less into him on draft Kings than I am on fan duel. - Yeah, funny situation this week where all best ball players or so many best ball players have before to on their team. And DFS is not gonna have them at all. And you know, I think people that think about their bankroll in that way, if you're still alive in some high stake stuff, you know, I'll be like, well, I got my love for the exposure as well. I know I'm one of those people this week. So yeah, it's a tough, it's tough to get there on draft Kings but I kind of put them in that same tier of everything I was just mentioning on the lines. Like I think they're all kind of under owned. And he's interesting on draft Kings because I mentioned like all these tight ends, all the top six, seven guys that are projecting well are coming through a double digit ownership, right? Whether it's a salary relief guy like Chig or the guys that have put up big games like in Joker, Ingram, McBride. Like you're not getting any kind of leverage on these guys. So if you're looking for some punts, you know, it doesn't just have to be from a salary relief. It could be from a leverage play, you know, ownership relief too. And the Porto's that guy this weekend, Ferguson's the other guy that was on my radar from like a single digit own guy in a solid game environment that I'd be willing to get to. And I get that it's not a natural click at price. - Well, you can do some cheap guys. You hit on Jonu and that, you know, the more I'm looking at it, that's a little bit appealing to me just because, you know, I've had a few weeks this year where I've wanted to get expensive when everyone's going cheap and I've been burned by it. Like Kittle and Kelsey, I feel like the opposite this week where, you know, I don't love a direct line pivot off of McBride, at least on draft Kings. And, you know, one way to just switch up the roster construction is go cheap. And you get Jonu, Odin, Conklin, and Tucker Kraft is like, those four guys you can see at the bottom of the screen, if you're watching now, as decent values. Kraft's projection is difficult 'cause he's really played well. But if you look at the actual opportunity, it's not amazing and we definitely have Green Bay establishing it a bit here given the matchup. But I do think the touchdown equity for him is pretty strong this week. - Yeah, I do think Kraft, you know, if Reed ends up getting ruled out, Kraft will probably end up being pretty chalky, don't you think? - If Reed is out, I do think that he'd be, probably like the 15%-ish range, would be curious to see if that takes any off of McBride if people just construct differently or like how that break down. down would occur is definitely interesting because if you did get McBride like falling into the teens and all the sudden, you know, I'm a little bit more apt to want to play him more actively. Yeah. I don't have a whole lot else to add to Titan though. I think, you know, as I normally do, it just kind of build, you know, Titan or on the game stack. And I think this week is no exception. Yeah. Yeah. I think that makes sense. You know, Conklin, Odin, I think are like fine. I don't have a strong cake. I don't know if you've been a strong cake on any of the cheap Titans. Yeah. Odin's a guy that I find myself click a little bit. And I wish it was more of a true punt, right? Like a difference between the John who priced an Odin price is going to would come back, right? That $400 difference is important here. But Odin, I think, is intriguing. Conklin's not bad either. I just don't know how much I want to lean into the Simeon stuff. Like, I think if I'm playing Jetstuff, I'd rather keep it to the Garret Wilson Breeze Hall of it all. Like, I think they're both solid-shock. We didn't really talk too much about that. But I think they're both fine. So I don't think I want to get into Conklin too much. We're Odin. You know, I've already talked about like in the past games on both those sides of that game. So at least I get exposure to a game where I like the passing environments on both sides. I don't mind the John who call. I was more into John who earlier in the season. I think, you know, he's come back a little bit down to life here. But I don't mind it at $2,900 again. You know, this is certainly a week, especially if you want to jam in. If you really want to jam in like your Dallas Miami game stacks, like we talked about in a large field, you probably need to pun off this position. Elijah Higgins, by the way, you mentioned he was four for 44. He's listed as a tight end on on draft kings. If if Dorch is out as well and with all the ownership on McBride, like, go for it. Why not punt it off? I don't care. So yeah, I think it's I think it's totally fine. Okay. Let's, um, we'll look at defense real quick. We do get a super chalk defense on draft kings and the jets. I don't know if it'll be quiet that high, but we have them at like 40% small field right now. Sam Hall has just been, you know, a disaster in a lot of different regards in Washington has shown that they're just going to throw. Um, and that's that's what you want is a team that will throw no matter what, even if they're quarterback is struggling. So we have them as really highly owned on draft kings. And then on final, I think it's actually the opposite. I think we have the Washington defense. Um, we have Seattle tops just because they're so cheap, but Washington up there. Uh, and he thoughts on the jets defense and where you might pivot on DK Gary. Yeah. I'm still coming to grips this. I know it's been all season. Now we've had Sims here at the summer itself, but I'm still coming to grips with the chalky defense stuff, sometimes not being bad. Uh, you know, I've been, I've been trying to explore all that and actually little plug for myself coming out probably in about an hour is my leverage comp for this week where I dive deep on, on this topic of, of defense and kind of where we've seen some correlation stuff, uh, over the last handful of years. So no, I, you know, I don't think the jets are as bad as I maybe have in previous years, uh, with the chalk defense of it all. It's a really good matchup. That said, my, my GP P brain, uh, is, is certainly leads me away from trying to get into that 30%. Um, you know, I think I've ramp up variance on defense. I take, I take shots on, on all different defenses here. I mean, other ones that stand out are the dolphins and cabboys. I think attacking that game from the defense of perspective, especially because it's expensive to get into it. Any spots that you don't have your skill position players or at least don't have pass catchers, I think it's intriguing to get into those, those, uh, defenses at low ownership, um, and you don't have, and you know, it's not too expensive on, like, on the dolphin side to, to do so. Uh, so I think that is in play. And then I think there's so many of these quarterbacks that we can't believe are starting this week with Kingdom and Flacco and Heinecke and, and all these guys, like, I think attacking the other side of any of those dudes is, is reasonable here. Yeah, I, I can't get away from the Browns defense. I just want to play them a week. Um, yeah. I, I feel like they're going to be higher owned than we have on, but maybe there's enough coverage from the Jets, not sure. Uh, we can, any DST takes? Uh, not really. I, I, I think I like the bears a decent amount, especially knowing that, um, fields is going to be the chalkiest quarterbacks. So I just kind of hope that they dominate. Um, that, that's probably going to be my name pivot off the Jets. That's a good call. That's a great one. It's a great one. All right, let's go to flag plants. Uh, we will start with, you know, Wiggins are Gary, you know, if anyone's got a hot take, no, Wiggins, Wiggins, uh, Wiggins deserves the honors, uh, with the run he's been on. Go ahead. All right. I'll take it. I'm going Devon H and, um, just think you can feel really good about his ownership. He projects close enough to the top tier running backs, and we know the big playability he has. And it's a game we like. So he kind of checks all the boxes for a really good pivot at running backs. Yeah. That's a good one. Um, for sure. I'll, uh, I'll stay on the running back side for, for my first one, if you will. Uh, I'm going to go Aaron Jones. Um, I don't see a world where I get steamed up. I know it's been a rough year, uh, for, for Jones here, but man, big game for, for Green Bay, uh, even if Dylan plays. I mean, at this point, we know what AJ Dylan is. Uh, and I think they just need to get Jones involved. I think Reed is, is less likely to go than more likely. I think he'll end up, and in that case, I think he's ends up being a pivot off of Wix, a little bit off of craft, possibly. And I just don't, especially if Dylan's in. I don't think he's getting, um, too much steam. So, uh, yeah, I like Aaron Jones quite a bit here. Okay. I, you know, I'll keep the trend going. We'll go running back here for the first round all the way through. Um, between a couple guys, I think I'm going to go Kenneth Walker here against Tennessee. The, you know, the Tennessee run defense is strong. And like the past defense is much worse, but I think sometimes that gets like double triple count. And especially when it's easier to click on to some other guys. So I'll go walk. I know he's on the injury report this week, but they said he's going to play, uh, I think the upside for him, you know, just given his big playability and the goal line role. And he's been catching, you know, a few passes in the base work, even though Charbonne is taking the obvious pass down work. So Kenneth Walker, the third for me, uh, like all of ours. So, yeah, I'm running back. You could really get, I think there's ways to get unique, which is kind of, you know, why I talked about fading that top tier of white and tailor on draftings, I think is a, is a, is a solid way to do it in tournaments this week. Cool. Should we do a second round? Are we good with one round? Usually we do two each, but we also usually have two people on the show. I got one more. I got another one. Yeah. All right. Let's go around. Uh, you know, I, I have two. So if you take mine by all means, all right. I'd like, uh, Elijah Mort, uh, we're projecting him for basically the same as JSN and Wix right now. And he'll be unplayed. So it's, it's not like, I think he's going to smash training. It's just, it makes sense in that price range. You'll hope that Flackle throws it 45 times again. I know Elijah Mort hasn't really done it, uh, almost ever, but maybe, maybe this is the week. He's made cheap white receiver volume. I think every single week, uh, pretty much this season, what I wrote it. I finally bumped him back down to the honorable mentions here this week with kind of how Flackles, uh, used in Joku over the last couple of weeks, but I do think he's in play, um, just because volume's still there. I think stealing can pop off at any point. All right. I'm between two guys, but I, I feel like I have to go with the guy that I've kind of pounded the table on where you're like, you never get this guy at single digits. I don't care that he's the most expensive receiver on the slate. Uh, let me just buy into the ownership here and give me Tyrick Hill. It's going to be not often that you get to kind of use him as a flag plant, uh, in a show like this. So, uh, I'll let you guys know who the other guy was cooking up if, if Leonie doesn't take him. But yeah, I like Tyrick quite a bit. I don't think I'm going to take him, uh, I'm going to go with the Darnell Mooney call, uh, cheap, obviously very risky, but, uh, you know, 15 targets over the last two weeks. The yards per target has been atrocious, but as we can say, he's got to hit on one deep ball. He's getting the opportunity. I like that the route share has come up to kind of back up the increase in targets and, you know, all the good stuff we mentioned about field. So I think you can play him with, you know, DJ Moore and Fields. I probably wouldn't triple fields with like, Comet Mooney and DJ Moore. I think that might be a little bit much, but absolutely fine doubling with one of those guys being Mooney this week. Yeah, I'd have a hard time getting to a triple with fields just because like ultimately, the ceiling case involves the legs a little bit. Um, so I think a triple is tough, but, uh, I agree with that. So last guy, we didn't really talk about. I just wanted to mention, I'm not going to put him as my official flag plant at all. I think Mike Evans is great this week. You know, the field, I all wants to go to this Godwin, uh, once again, after, after last week, and you get a little bit of a discount off Evans Peak of like seven eight seven ninety seven six on draft things this week, we have them at 9.7% right now. It's a great matchup. Uh, I really like, I like attacking Evans, uh, this week. Yeah, there's also again, like on the swap stuff. Maybe it's not super clean, but like fields DJ Moore, we know he's going to be chalky. You can flip that. I think it's pretty close to Baker and Evans. Yeah, if you feel DJ Moore to Baker, Evans. So like get that information early and you can adjust accordingly. Well, yeah, thanks so much guys for filling in. You guys crushed it. Absolutely appreciate it. And thanks everybody for tuning in. Best of luck in your contests this week. And make sure you check out all the content tomorrow morning. Slate's always evolving and we'll do our best to keep you up to speed. [BLANK_AUDIO]