Epstein Files Reveal Depraved Global Network

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You know, it's Friday afternoon, and I'm, since I always forget, I feel like I should take my Zbiotics right now. - Just in case. I literally will not have a drink without taking a Zbiotics. I feel like I'm starting a religion when I talk about it, because I just want people to follow me, fight my flock, because I know it will make you better and happier. Actually, I'm starting to see Zbiotics on menus, and the restaurants on T.C., and stuff like. It really works. It works like a miracle for me. If you don't believe me, I understand. There's a lot of snake oil in the space, but here's what you do. You try it once. Go to zbiotics.com/pstw. You'll get 15% off your first order. When you use PSTW, check out plus, it's backed by a 100%. Money-back guarantees, so there's literally no risk. Subscriptions are also available for maximum consistency. Remember, head to zbiotics.com/pstw and use the code PSTW, check out for 15% off. - U.S. voters abroad. Have you got your ballot yet? All states are now sending ballots to overseas voters. So if you want to vote this year, you should request your ballot right away. Go to votefromabroad.org and click Request My Ballot. Ask to receive it by email. Questions? Ask our support team directly. Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. (upbeat music) - Welcome back to PotsAid of the World. I'm Tommy Vittor. - I'm Ben Rhodes. - Recording a little early today 'cause Ben and I are gonna go see a Melania doc, Madenay. There's the $12 tub of popcorn. Have you seen that? - Yes, yes, the Melania. I was saying, yeah, I saw a Melania billboard driving in on La Brea, and I didn't see it to face yet. Nothing I incurred, Vandals. - No. - But I'm surprised it has-- - Is something about the black and white color scheme that's a little triggering too? - It's very spy versus spy. - Yeah. - Sorry, they spent $35 million on the marketing. - Typical. - I mean, to be fair, budgets for documentary. - Low budget. - Heard. - Usually like that. - Yeah, usually it's $120 million. - The funniest thing about it is that they insisted in an international release. 'Cause I could see it. - And they won't release those numbers. - They won't release those numbers, right? Because I get it, the Magadayards will turn out for any fucking piece of junk that glorifies their leader. But the idea that anybody was gonna see that in Europe, it just feels like a troll. - You see South Africa actually, like part of it from its theaters. (laughing) - Yeah, I noticed it had a better than expected. What is it, what do you call it? Open revenue total in the US was like $8 million. Which again, it means Amazon's gonna recoup, I think $3.5 million, they'll get like half of whatever back or $4 million and they just wouldn't release the international tolls because they know. - Good job, international. - Good job, Jeff. - Jeff, you know, we're gonna talk today about some great, like hard-hitting investigative reporting. A lot of it is coming from Murdoch papers. And Jeff Bezos is just buying off Trump family members with documentaries. - That would pay for the Washington Post Farm Bureau for-- - Yeah, it would. - It's 10 years. - It's the millennia release. - Yeah, so infuriating. Well, we have a corruption theme today. - We have a corruption theme today. - So stick around. - Yeah, today's focus is gonna be a great deal on international corruption and the rot we are seeing, not just in the Trump administration, but amongst elites all over the world. That starts with this jaw-dropping report in the Wall Street Journal about the UAE secretly purchasing 49% of the Trump family's crypto company before he was inaugurated. And then the advanced AI chips they got in return. We're gonna try to unravel like the truly global scope of this Epstein files scandal. It's just metastasizing daily. We're gonna try to figure out what the hell's going on with Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence. She's popping up all over the place in very weird and troubling ways. We're checking on the latest in Ukraine. We'll explain some dire warnings about the war in Sudan and how the proxy war there is expanded. And then we'll talk about why Trump officials are meeting with separatist groups in Canada and why that could be pose an existential threat to Canada's economic future. And then we have finally a story about France. I think we'll delight all the history buffs out there. And then, you did our interview today. What are folks gonna hear? - Yeah, I talked to a friend of the show, Alivize, who's the International Crisis Groups Iran expert. And just one of the smarter, more nuanced thinkers about what's going on inside of Iran. So we talked about the dizzying run of events over the last couple of weeks, where things stand, what the negotiations are about between the United States and Iran with some of these other countries involved. What the interest of those countries, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, are in trying to avoid this war. And I think very importantly, if there is some kind of regime change in Iran, which we still don't know will happen, who might come next. And that's something you don't hear a lot about, but Ali really breaks down a few different scenarios for how that could go. - Did you guys talk before or after the U.S. reportedly shot down this Iranian drone? - We talked kind of a concurrent to that. But, you know, I mean, Ali sums it up well. I mean, we could be here in a week, and I wouldn't be surprised if the United States is bombed Iran and removed its leadership. And I wouldn't be surprised if they are announcing that they have some framework for the deal. We just don't know. - That's the maddhan theory, Ben. That's the maddhan theory. - Oh, it's genius. It's really genius what he's doing. See what he did? Oh, wow, so ingenious. - I know. There is some genius to framing wing in it as genius, but yeah, here we are. Okay, that's a great interview, and I could not agree more that Ali is one of the smartest people in all of the analyst space on this topic and one that doesn't, you know, he's not just a regime change, only like one trick pony. Like you see from some of these think tanks, FDB, cough, FDB. After the interview, our subscribers are going to hear a Q&A Ben will do with some of our members of the Pods Aval World Discord. If you want to hear that, please consider becoming a friend of the Pods subscriber. Go to crooked.com/friends. You also get ad-free episodes of the show. You have lots of fun bonus stuff. But also it's like the most helpful thing you could do for crooked media as a company. If you want to support independent progressive journalism consider becoming a friend of the pod. Or just subscribe to the show, either on RSS or on YouTube. It really does help us. It helps people find the show when you subscribe. If you're watching on YouTube and you're not subscribed, please do us a solid, it's free. - Yeah, I mean, speaking of free, by the way, Tommy, thank you to the thousands of people that sign up for my sub-deck. - Sub-deck. - I've been cranking them out. I've got a piece in Iran, I had a piece of nice, working on something in an Epstein. So again, it's free. I just want to share more writing so you can check me out there. - Check out Ben's sub-deck, it's called. - Notes on the stories we tell. - Very literary title. - You get kind of a pose for me there. - Yeah, I did, I did, I did, I did, I did, I did a kind of literary pose. - It did sort of, I'm trying to give a vibe. If people have different title ideas too, let me know. - No, I like this title. - I kind of like it though. All right, let's start with some great reporting Ben. So this is Bob Shell Scoop from the Wall Street Journal about Trump and the UAE, the United Arab Emirates. The journal reported that days before the inauguration last year, an investment fund overseeing by a member of the UAE's Royal Family, secretly purchased 49% of the Trump family's crypto business, World Liberty Financial. This was for a cool $500 million. When this deal happened, World Liberty had no products to sell. And the way this deal was structured, it actually didn't give the new investors any access to what the time was their only source of revenue. So they paid $500 million for like nothing. Totally on the up and up here. The Trump family got an upfront payment of $187 million. The Whitcoff family got $31 million. That's Trump's golf buddy turns chief diplomat, Steve Whitcoff. His son is the CEO of World Liberty. And the Wall Street Journal report really does make it seem like the deal was negotiated by Steve Whitcoff and Eric Trump during a trip to the UAE shortly after Steve was named to this kind of roving on-boy role. But remember, Ben, this is actually the second shockingly brazen corruption scandal regarding the UAE or UAE backed investment firm in the Trump family. So last year, this Emirati state backed investment fund called MGX announced they were making a $2 billion investment into the crypto company Binance. But they made the investment with the Trump family's new stablecoin, which is called USD1, USD1, stablecoin sort of type of crypto that's pegged to the US dollar. That deal instantly made USD1 one of the biggest stablecoins in the world in terms of market cap and circulation. And it could earn the Trump family about $80 billion a year in passive interests. So must be nice. On the Emirati side, the World Liberty Investment was led by a guy named Shake to Noon Benzai at Al Nayan. He's the UAE's national security adviser. He's the brother of the president. He's a big shot. It manages, I think, a $1.3 trillion portfolio of businesses. That's nice. It must be nice, man. Not long after all these crypto investments in meetings with the Trump administration and to noon, the Trump administration agreed to let the UAE purchase 500,000 of the most advanced AI chips in the world produced by Nvidia. About a fifth of those chips went to an Emirati backed firm called G42, which is chaired by Shake to Noon. The Biden administration had blocked the export of those chips to the UAE because the UAE the Emirates do a lot of business with the Chinese, including like state-backed entities like Huawei and there was concern that those chips could make their way to the Chinese military, but I guess Trump just backdoor doesn't care Trump was asked about this quid pro quo on Monday. Here's his response Ben Well, I don't know about it. I know that crypto is a big thing and they like it My sons are handling that my family is handling it and I guess they get investments from different people, but I'm not I have all I can handle right now with Iran and with Russia and Ukraine and with all the things with so I don't know I don't know So funny other than you know, I'm a big crypto person. I'm the one that probably Helped crypto more than anybody because I believe in it and the reason I believe in it is because if we don't do it Scott, I think we can say then China is gonna do it. Who cares? We don't do crypto than China's gonna do it. Oh, no China does the fake money coin in the shitter now too. Yeah, it's tanking today. I mean, I just this like the most staggeringly corrupt thing I've ever heard of in his responses are I don't know. Yeah, I like The corruption is very obvious. We don't have to spend too much time on it But you you made the point Biden had strict export controls on these chips going to the UAE Yeah, that doesn't mean there shouldn't be any transition of technology, but usually what you do is you just kind of You open the spigot a little bit, you know What they did is they just completely dismantled the entire export regime gave them the number of the best of the best they went from zero to a hundred Yeah, they know like step-up process like the blackwell series monitoring and verification regime The only two other things I want to say about this I think it's really important that people understand that this is an entirely different kind of scale of corruption And it's not even just because of the money involved. That's a piece of it. It's because you know, we're used to kind of I know Bob Hernandez with the gold bars, you know, remember the guy with like that blocks a cash in their freezer and stuff like that Oh, yeah, what what Trump is doing is was in New Orleans, right? Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know I think I just named two Democrats by the way I'm not I'm not just part of them, but what Trump is doing is William Jefferson. Yeah, you know The great scandal 90 grand and cash hit in the freezer. I mean, I love you know, there was some good stuff in the Hoyser whenever the hell that was God good pull then, but what Trump is doing is he's monetizing kind of the most valuable Assets of of the United States, right? I mean like it is is national security stuff You know because that's the most valuable stuff, right? And so the reason it's different scale is not just the money involved It's that it's like national interests being traded away And there's no payment like to the United States. It's just a Eric Trump and you know, the Wittgaugh family, right? So you're not seeing any benefit from this like you know, it's just going right to the kitty and the other thing I think that you know, Trump did the reason this is so much worse in the second term, right first term You had like, I don't know, Saudi's paying top dollar to state Trump hotels and stuff that is I think what Trump did is He studied and so far as he's a student But he paid attention how does Putin operate? How does Erdogan operate like how to how do other corrupt Regimes operate and he's like when I get back in there, I'm just gonna do that, you know And and so I think what we're seeing is the United States operating like, you know Malaysia has a times or like, you know, Turkey has a times or certainly how Russia has But I think what's different again is just a scale because what what those countries don't have is like thousands of the best chips in the world You know, so he can you know, it's a bigger scale even than those countries because of what he has to trade away Yeah, and then the first term he pretended to care about the emoluments clause and perceived conflicts of interest and now when he's pressed on this He'll just say look. I got no credit for it tonight. I don't care anymore So now I'm just gonna be as corrupt as I want and also, you know He completely flipped flopped on cryptocurrency generally like he was opposed to it He thought it was you know, he initially viewed it from like a nationalist Perspective as like a competitor to the dollar that might hurt our primacy as a country But then someone clearly told him that he could make a buck by selling shitcoins and then they got deeper and deeper down the crypto path And they realized this was the best possible way to funnel Ungodly amounts of money to you and to your family and to sell, you know The crown jewels of the US technology business and here we are Yeah, and I you know the golf is a piece of this right because Essentially we're in a world without like a ton of liquidity, right? Some of these people who are also very rich on like screens You know, they they don't have billions and billions of dollars to just throw it stuff They do in the Gulf right because of our addiction to fossil fuels because of the global economy that we built right so I'm not blaming them for having that money like Countries like Saudi Arabia the UE cut to our others like they just have a lot of cash to throw at things and one of those sad things And we'll kind of get to the Epstein at all in a second here is just Americans We're like maws to a flame right? I mean that this is a connective tissue between like the Saudi Wheel state investment conference with like you know special guests Hillary Clinton or whomever and this at different scale I don't want to you know like Hillary taking a speaking fees not the same as trading-weight chips survive But the common thread essentially is that like This with the golf has figured out and I actually don't blame them for this I mean I blame them for other things Emirates what they're doing in Sudan, which we'll get to but Of course if if you have that much money and their people are just willing to line in for a way like you're gonna do it And so this this calls for Real structural reform of corruption in the U.S. government. Yeah, if the Democrats can ever claw back power that has to be part of the agenda absolutely Potty of the world is brought to you by Ridge I think we've all had that That that era in our lives when your wallet is like six inches thick You're like Kastanza terrible. 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That's better H-E-L-P dot com slash crooked world All right, so let's talk about Epstein by now I'm sure the audience has heard about this massive trove of files related to Jeffrey Epstein that came out of DOJ last week This was in response to a law passed by Congress There's a million to millions of records. They showed his vast web of connections to rich and powerful people all over the US including Donald Trump and others We're going to try to focus on the international angle Because this scandal is now truly global so a couple examples been so starting in the UK We have covered the Downfall of a creep formerly known as Prince Andrew Who is stripped of his royal titles and asked to move from you know one royal estate to a slightly less large royal estate But this latest launch of files includes even more photos of Prince Andrew In Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now calling on him to testify before the US Congress about Epstein So that's kind of a remarkable step for for Starmer to make Then there's a guy named some other Americans. I'd like to see testify before I come too Yeah, I was like yeah, I was like let's get some There's a weird theme here, which is like there's a lot of accountability in the British system and none in ours Then there's a guy named Peter Mendelssohn last September Peter Mendelssohn lost his job as Britain's ambassador to the US Because of a previous trunch of Epstein files that showed their relationship with like being far deeper and Going on longer than it should have But the fallout from this latest trunch is massive for Mendelssohn So he's resigned from the labor party. He's resigned from the House of Lords on Tuesday the times of law London reported that Mandelsund will face a full criminal inquiry or a full criminal investigation for forwarding along very highly confidential British government information including seeming to tip Epstein off about the EU's response to the debt crisis I believe in 2010 I think that's what that email was like he basically told a guy a financier with Wall Street connections that the EU was about to do like a 500 billion euro bailout. Yeah pretty bad yeah I think starting with the British piece of this you know this has been interesting I I ended up spending a lot more time morbidly scrolling through this content than I thought for a couple of reasons right one is just the absolute depravity and that's where Prince Andrew comes in right just people men behaving like the absolute worst versions of human beings as it relates to the mistreatment trafficking abuse of girls I think the other thing that jumps out though Tommy is beyond just the conduct of the global elite there were real stakes involved right so you take the Mandelsund thing that is not a small fucking matter that's right that is again senior government official trading the most sensitive inside market based information you and I were in meetings about the same bailouts I remember being in meetings about ECB bailouts and I mean I'm not saying I'm pure you know like I'm a hero I just you know it was unthinkable but you would like leak that information it's like hey I know and put it the brazenest the impunity email put it in an email it shows you yeah fording this from Gordon Brown hey I just heard like Tim Geithner talking about this you know I mean which by the way all this shit is happening right now because Trump administration officials are using this kind of insider information to bet on events on Calche Polymarket Polymarket right they're fucking accounts are getting set up being like Will Maduro be deposed 100 grand into the into the table that's going to happen by the end of today oh wow I won my bet how did that happen yeah so no I I think it's a theme here that there was actual real stakes power intelligence agencies market moving information that was circulating in this web that Epstein had built I also think the Mandelsund thing is a big deal because again our British listeners know this but Peter Manelson is a gigantic figure in much politics this guy inner inner circle of Tony Blair new labor comes in he was kind of at the center you know Britain is a pretty clubby place London is in more clubby place Westminster the most clubby place he was the guy the guy that was constantly with you talking to journalists talking to political operatives like it was like a master communication I met him he's a charming guy like he's a good communicator right and by the way he's gay so he was not like part of the sex crimes it was just one of you know I mean maybe it's not strange it is just odd that he was sort of like so close with this guy but also seemingly Epstein funneled a bunch of money to his partner which he like seemed to pretend he didn't know about but now there's records of it and he kind of got off on just being in the center of the action and I think that the lesson you know we all have to look a little harder at our elites after this Epstein stuff and in the in the UK case it said you know how did this guy come back like how did he get the job as ambassador the British intelligence those questions now the UK has very good intelligence services yeah I would be absolutely flabbergasted if MI6 didn't know the debts of Peter Manelson's connections Epstein yeah so how did these guys sign off on him becoming ambassador to the United States it's a pretty important job after this yeah I must align his vetting or something yeah a few more examples then so the the royal family in Norway has gotten swept into this so the latest bunch of files has revealed that the crown princess her name is Metamarrit she's the woman in line to be queen was extremely chummy with Jeffrey Epstein in a bunch of email correspondence between 2011 and 2013 which is well after his plea deal in Florida she was chastised by the prime minister Norway for showing bad judgment and this is happening for at a very challenging time for her because her son from a previous marriage is on trial for 38 charges including four counts of rape so this is yeah very scary time for her I mean the tolerable all that she's awful um but she's not even the only Norwegian VIP to get caught up in this like the former prime minister uh in the chair of the Nobel Peace Prize selection committee was vacationing on Epstein island not a good that few months of the Nobel Peace Prize the former a former former foreign minister had dinner with him a couple times there's two diplomats who helped negotiate the Oslo Accords have financial ties to Epstein so that's bad uh we've talked about the former Israeli prime minister Ahood Barak before he's been named in these files but now there's even more correspondence between Ahood Barak and Jeffrey Epstein there's audio files of their conversations it's clear that Epstein's kind of like helping him set up his post prime minister life financially telling him he's describing to him what Palantir is for the first time in one of these audio recordings yeah did make you wonder about Ahood Barak's keeping up with the time what the hell I know yeah there also there's a conversation defensive Israel they have a conversation about Obama that I said that the ice guy I love that offensive Jeffrey Epstein like has like an interesting and like very accurate I think read on Obama and Ahood Barak's like red political playbook once and seven and he's close to Valerie Jarrett as like where's the the massage give you that brief in the UAE there's like a top executive at Dubai based logistics company that's like sending porn links around the Slovakian national security advisor resigned after messages between him and Epstein came out where they were like talking about women and that also I think discussing a forthcoming meeting with the Russian foreign minister so Ben I just we'll pause there but it's just it's staggering like how this guy was able to get his tentacles into so many different people and just like I don't convince them that he was interesting or important or could connect them or was a financial genius I don't think maybe there was some some abilities there that we don't know about but my god look he definitely operated um like an intelligent service himself right like almost unto himself in the sense that he built a network he got compromising information on people who were also his friends he found weak spots like these rural families are weak spots in high society these are people who have like a lot of money and a lot of time on their hands and no real jobs and they go to places like the Virgin Islands right right and so he kind of burrows in I mean that's why I take away from these worlds like this is a way to kind of burrow into the elites and you kind of probably follow that pathway to other people I thought the Barak thing a Barak thing was really interesting because it shows you how this works we've said a few times particularly when we talk about like Jared Krishna that the payoff for government service right comes on the back end i.e. like you do something to scratch the back of rich people and then or or say the gulf and then when you leave in Jared's case you get a two billion dollar you know investment in your fund the aid brock thing he's literally coaching him he's like I can get you on this board I can get you on this board he's literally setting the guy up you know and I think it is a good window for people into how this kind of revolving door elite works where even people who seem like they're very powerful in some ways are subordinate to wealthy people because those wealthy people are the people that are going to make you money when you leave government right and so that all becomes one self-looking ice cream cone of corruption I also think like we should just pause on this intelligence question because you know there's weird links that why can this guy set up meetings with Russians right he clearly was doing a lot of stuff that benefit the Israeli government the Russian Russian Israel have two of the most aggressive intelligence services in the world and there's one email from Epstein where it goes to like a I think a former deputy economic minister a Russian guy where he's like hey there's a woman in town from Moscow that is blackmailing a businessman that she slept with it's bad for everyone here's her address yeah yeah real fucking real information very stuff on this stuff right it was sorry no no and that's right I mean I'm curious what do you think Tommy because I know you but these questions you know I don't claim to know the answer but the idea that you know based on what we're seeing that like the I mean at a minimum the massage the FSB and you know who knows about the CIA right like must have been paying pretty close attention to showing up at that island because they know those people are compromised you know at a maximum this guy favorite trades you know he didn't necessarily have to be on the payroll of an intelligence service to work with them and to say hey Russia I send me some women and I'll send you some information or something right or whatever the thing is you know so I do think that some people are right to suggest like why are we not seeing more investigation into this guy's links and I'm not just pointing at Israel I'm pointing at Russia and I'm curious about this links to the US today like what would this guy to your point like had just a revolving door of some of the most powerful richest famous people in the world come into his island flying on his plane sending him emails unclassified emails about sensitive shit like I have to think there's an intelligence piece is somewhere I would think so and like Trump wants this to be the end of the story I think it's just the beginning of the next chapter he's now there are so many documents so many reporters and investigators can pull on these threads and try to figure out more and there's all this stuff that was redacted or withheld for various reasons and like we should just be honest like the 30-day timeline to get all these documents out was probably not remotely feasible yeah um and I don't like I'm not trying to criticize the authors of the legislation but like are you standing up for Todd Blanche the the I mean I'm just standing up for the fact that like to this day I was talking to a journalist today going through the archives who was like man there are still names naked photos in these archives that have not been redacted you know and it's like just horrible that they put the victims through this and you know there's collateral damage and people but um I think that like there's a lot a lot we need to know here. And like Donald Trump, he's mentioned like 38,000 times so far according to the New York Times, but this guy didn't use email, doesn't use email. So like, we don't really know. It's like the tip of the iceberg for me. - And to your point about Mandelson being potentially prosecuted, there's so many crimes in these documents. I also had a real concern. It's so daunting to see the pictures of these girls with like black boxes and are they okay? Like what happened to some of those girls? Like are they, 'cause it seemed like they were literally being treated like chattel. - Boy, and there's like occasionally some emails from Epc into like, could they one of the victims where he is like a sociopath? - Yeah, just awful. Well, I think we'll be talking about this again. - We know, yeah. - So one person who could be on the case here, but is not, is Tulsi Gabbard. - Good transition. - You know, but there's like, there's been a critical mass which is like truly fucking bizarre reporting both Halsey Gabbard, who is the director of national intelligence, we wanna check in on her. So remember, Tulsi was a Democrat. She served in the Iraq war. Her sort of top political driving issue was, seemed to be a sincere opposition to foreign wars, especially regime change wars, put a pin in that one. She was a touch quirky bench. She famously visited Syria in 2017, met with Bashar al-Assad, which was, you know, surprising thing to do given the scale of the massacre of his own people at that point in time, but she also seemed to kind of try to hide the trip when she got back. But despite all of that, Trump put Tulsi in charge of America's intelligence community, and it has been a bumpy ride for her sense. So again, despite the opposition to regime change wars, remember last year, she testified for Congress and said, "Aronis not decided to develop a nuclear weapon." Once later, when Trump was about to bomb, he was asked about those comments, and he said, "I don't care what she thinks," and then she adjusted the intelligence picture to match his opinion. She also fired intelligence officials for producing intelligence assessment that did not repeat the administration's line that now deposed Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro was linked to the gang, Trende Aragua. Remember so she could fire those guys. But despite all of that, she still seems to be on the outs with Trump because on January 1st, Tulsi was posting photos of herself doing yoga on the beach while the inner circle of the Trump administration was finalizing the Venezuela raid to take out Maduro, which she was just not readin' on at all. So fast forward to these last couple of weeks, Ben. First, Tulsi is spotted on the ground in Georgia at the side of this FBI raid of the election office in Fulton County, which to be clear is nuts. She is not supposed to have any part of a domestic law enforcement operation period. Gabbard says Trump specifically directed her to be there, and according to The New York Times, Tulsi even called Trump on his cell phone, put him on speakerphone so that he could talk with the FBI agents conducting the raid. I just want you to imagine in your head for one second, if Avril Haynes was at the site of Mar-a-Lago when they did the classified documents raid and she put Joe Biden on a call with the FBI agent, just marinate on that one while I do a little more narration here. Someone who spoke with the Times said the call was like, compared it to a pep rally, but this was my favorite line in that story, Ben. It said, quote, Ms. Gabbard used her cell phone to call Mr. Trump, who did not initially pick up. (laughing) She was Senator voicemail. Also at the raid was that like, second deputy director of the FBI that got Andrew Bailey, who was called into layer Minecraft head blockhead, Bungino, who was on the record saying the left stole the election in 2020, so that gives me confidence. Here is Senator Mark Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, talking about Tulsi's presence in Georgia for this FBI operation at a press conference on Tuesday. The director of national intelligence does not conduct criminal investigations. She has no role in executing search warrants, and she does not belong on the scene of a domestic FBI search, particularly one tied to the president's personal grievances, carried out under the pretense of normal law enforcement. Now director Gabbard argues that her presence was justified by quote broad statutory authority. The broad authority to analyze intelligence is not a license to participate in a sham investigation. And it certainly does not justify facilitating direct contact between the frontline FBI agents doing this investigation directly to the president of the United States. - So the operation was not authorized by the Atlanta's local U.S. attorney, but it was insetting authorized by the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri, who Bondi has tasked with looking into election interference. It's also notable Ben that the agent in charge of the FBI's Atlanta Field Office resigned the week before, feels connected. On Tuesday, the Guardian reported that Tulsi's running her own separate review of the 2020 election, somehow independent of whatever the DOJ and FBI are doing. So let's just pause there. What the fuck do you think she was doing there? What is happening? - So first of all, just to Mark Warner comment, who I worked for back in 2006, but he does sometimes sound like a guy, and I say this is the affection, who was frozen in 2006, and then is like dropped into 2026, and is like, what the fuck is going on here? You got the drink, you know, like it's-- - Quite the old ad norms. - Yeah, norms. Here's like, it's conspiracy theory day, because you know why? 'Cause we have no idea what the fuck is going on. Right? - There's a lot of conspiracy. - There's no information. So when there's no information, all you can do is have a theory. Here's what worries me about this, right? Yes, she has no operational authority in an FBI operation. Like, the only thread that she could cling to is that not only the DNI's ahead of the intelligence community, but that is not meant to be supervising law enforcement operations by the FBI. That's meant to the domestic intelligence gathering part of the FBI kind of goes into a pool of information that the DNI draws from. I worry about this. The way these things could connect is the craziest theories about the 2020 election involves foreign interference, right? - Ding, ding, ding. - Like Venezuela, or whoever they fight Iran, or other countries. - I'll reach you a true social post in a minute when you're done to give you some more specifics. - Why would this matter? And why would this be connected to Georgia? Because if she wants to spin some web of conspiracy theory that there's this kind of ongoing foreign threat to the integrity of our elections, ironic the Republicans now care about that, given how they've dealt with Russia, that could be a potential pretense to federalize the conduct of elections in this country. So elections are held by states. They're the ones who put on the voting. They're the ones who count the votes. Trump hates that. - You see Trump called for federalizing 15 states worth on blockade, on Geno's podcast, Monday? - I didn't realize I'm blockade, on Geno's podcast. - He's back. - If they're looking for a pretext to cross the final third rail, they've already crossed so many others, of trying to nationalize elections. So states can actually carry out the elections, but a bunch of Trump flunkies can. Tulsi could deliver that to Trump by saying, "Oh, we're finding all this evidence "of the Venezuelan conspiracy." So that looks kind of keystone cops, but that's the truly scary possibility. Is it this is like part of that play? - They have 4D rail, the Democratic party. - Yeah. - So her authority is only authorized assessing foreign interference in elections, right? - Yes. - And investigating Joe Biden or whatever. - Yeah. - Last week, Trump won on a crazy late night posting spree on truth social bend. So that included sharing a message that said the following. So it said that the quote, stolen 2020 election was connected to Obama via the pallets of cash to Iran, which was funneled through the Dubai Embassy to operatives in Italy and Merrill Lynch and Geneva, Switzerland. In return, this says that Italian officials used military satellites to hack U.S. voting machines using CIA tools, China coordinated the operation, but also the CIA oversaw it and the FBI covered it up. There's another popular set of claims that Venezuela was involved. I remember this the ghost of Hugo Chavez was stealing the election or maybe Maduro. There's another theory that a CIA supercomputer name Hammer went rogue somehow, changed the election results and the dude pushing that theory is remember back during the early days of the Iraq war. There was one guy who said he could decode al-Qaeda messages in Al Jazeera broadcast. Remember this whole fucking thing? - Yeah. - That guy is the one pushing this thing. That's the level of insanity we're talking about here. That is so fucking insane on every single level, like-- - What do you do with that? - What do you do? Barack Obama and the Italians and like Dubai, which is like, I mean, the other thing, so the truly scary thing is that this is all just about federalizing elections in certain states and making sure the Republicans can never lose power in this country, which is the thing that might happen. I do wanna say for the more comic relief, there are capacity to kind of take a bunch of things that they have theories about or that they once got mad about and just jamming them all together and like a sandwich. It's like the wreck, it's not a coherent theory. - If you look at the Democrats, we're like, you know, what Hurricane Katrina blew in, some information that led to migrants to vote over Republicans. - Yeah, like somehow, it's like this is kind of all, like they just take random quote unquote scandals from the last, you know, from Fox News, from the last eight years and suddenly, you know, Bo Burgdall, like through the election of 2020 or so, you know, like it's so fucking nuts. - I know, I remember when you were kidding, you would go to the soda machine and you make a graveyard. It was like something like that. - I love that, yeah, that's pretty good. - Yeah, that's what this is though. It's one big giant graveyard because they know, like the only audience that they're speaking to is like the dumbest fucking bag of rocks who sits in front of Fox News for 12 hours a day. And that person just hears like, "Palettes of cash." Oh, I remember that, yeah, like they must have, the 2016 poults of cash were saved to pay for stealing the election. in 2020, from Donald Trump, 'cause that's makes sense, yeah. Also, remember, there was some election integrity task force that Tulsi put together within the DNI's office. They put together a memo that named a specific individual and pegged that person as the one who had placed the pipe bombs at the DNC and the RNC before the January 6th insurrection. Shock, surprise, surprise. That information then leaks to the blaze. It's like far right wing outlet and they claimed they got their stores, their stuff like confirmed by Intel source, turns out that was total bullshit. The administration then arrested somebody else, but like they just Tulsi's team just smeared this innocent woman through this election integrity work. - After Blockhead, Banjino said that they actually caught the-- - Yeah, anyway. - Blockhead anymore. - All right, so then there's this like whistleblower issue. So the Wall Street Journal reported that a whistleblower report was filed against Gavard last May. It is described as like so top secret and so sensitive that it has to sit in a safe all by itself. By law, the inspector general is supposed to share credible whistleblower reports with Congress in a matter of a few weeks. They have like a week to assess it. Two weeks to share, it's something like that. But Tulsi and her team have just been sitting on this thing for months and no one really knows why. The complaint reportedly doesn't just involve Gavard, but also some official at another agency. They say executive privilege might be involved somehow. According to the journal quote, representative for the inspector general said the office had determined specific allegations against Gavard weren't credible. Well, it couldn't reach the determination on others, but it's worth pointing up in that the inspector general for the Intel community, these guys Christopher Fox, worked for Tulsi Gavard before taking this oversight job. So, you know, so it's great. So I don't know, like it's impossible to know what's going on here. I thought we might try to do some inform speculation about like what could make her wanna withhold something like this at risk to herself via Congress. What would make it so sensitive? Do you have a theory of the case? This one is even harder. You know, I didn't bring enough tinfoil hats today. I should have brought some. I guess, first of all, the executive privilege thing is interesting 'cause that would usually be the White House. So again, this is informed speculation, not just a guess, like when you hear an executive privilege that that, you know, generally only applies to the White House. Like other agencies don't have the ability to claim executive privilege. They report to Congress in a different way than the White House does. So that makes you wonder whether she's talking to some lunatic in the White House and there is any number than she could be talking to. And again, like if you think about what she's, like her only job, it seems to be, is investigating these election referencing. But remember it was her a few months ago came out with the kind of crazy, you know, theory that about the 2016 election that's, you know, said Barack Obama, so this is all she could be doing. And so I guess one theory is that there's a, maybe a foreign government that is helping her put together these theories, right? And I could think of, you know, a couple-- - Police. - Russia, you know, and that would be the kind of thing of like, well, wait a sec 'cause she's always had these connections with the Russians, we have a little ambiguous. I don't know, I mean, what is clear is this person is just kind of, first of all, clearly not mandating the intelligence community, is just kind of this inspector Klusso for election interference is clearly, you know, not following any protocols. And there's not really any oversight because they're not sharing shit with Congress. They gutted these inspector general functions or put a bunch of flunkies in there. And this is gonna also take more investigative journalism, more whistleblowers, like there are people that know. I mean, this is the thing, this is what is one of the things, time I'm curious to be thinking about this, like the next two or three years, if we're gonna get out of this, it's probably going to have to involve people who know on the inside, having enough is enough and telling people. - And also, like in the first term, they, you know, people like Vindamine, like others who came forward whistleblowers, did so, knowing that there was personal risk, but hoping that the system would protect them. And if, you know, everyone since has seen the system break down and not really protect them at all, so there's even greater personal risk coming out of this term too when Trump is like just made clear that he will go to the ends of their to punish you. - And they made clear that they try to give it to all the Vindamins, like they kind of professionally. - And they got rid of all the inspector generals and stuff, right? So they don't even care anymore. I mean, my theory, you could just imagine an instance where someone in the intelligence community blows a whistle on like a top person to Donald Trump. So Jared Kushner doesn't have a clearance, doesn't have a job. Is he consuming intelligence information? Is he sharing that intelligence information? Did we pick up on that sharing via our collection on the Israelis or something, right? So it comes back around and suddenly we know of malfeasance through some super compartmented, you know, sensitive collection priority, which is why it ends up the document ends up in a safe. Good happen. Could someone be mad that Steve Woodcock flies around the world in his own plane, doesn't use secure comms. Maybe Silly Steve left his like top secret binder behind in the Kremlin and like we found out about it. You know, so I don't know, again, I am totally guessing, but it's just interesting that this IG report involves Tulsi, but then also some other office and another agency, which makes me wonder if she is perceived to have been covering up for something someone else did because she's trying to protect her. That's a very good theory. Yes, and though. That's a good one. Remember when she's going to pardon Snowden? Wasn't that her other big thing? Yeah, yeah, I, you know, maybe he's happy in Moscow. As we gave up on that one. All right, we're going to take a quick break. But before we do, listen, this is your last chance if you live in New Zealand or Australia to pick up tickets to come see Pots of America for the hopefully just visiting tour of 2026. We're in Auckland on February 11th. Melbourne on February 13th. Brisbane on February 14th and Sydney on February 16th. You can get tickets at Crooked.com/events. It'll be a blast. Come see us. It'll be fun. 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So like deadly, dangerously cold. - Yeah. - And leading up to this cold and throughout it, there's been this sustained effort by the Russians to take out Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which led to rolling blackouts and people freezing. Last week, Trump said he got Putin to agree to like a one week ceasefire because of the cold. On Monday, this week, he repeated that claim. Let's watch. - I did call up President Putin and he's agreed, he's put it out to, they have the same cold wave that we do. Maybe different because it's pretty far away, but it's equivalent. And Ukraine's a very cold country. It's much colder than us. It's colder than they say, on average, it's Canada or colder. And on top of that, they have it. [BLANK_AUDIO] is called that, and I asked him if he wouldn't shoot for a period of one week, no missiles going into Kiev or any other towns, and he's agreed to do it, so it's something. On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia fired 32 ballistic missiles, 28 cruise missiles, 11 missiles, some other type, and 450 attack drones and an overnight attack that deliberately targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. So don't know the Putin kept his word, and that doesn't really build well for Putin agreeing to a broader peace deal. NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta took some time off from Kissing Shrubzass in what's Ukraine on Tuesday to his credit, I think like the air defense sirens were wailing as he was there trying to get something done. One small piece of good news, Ben, is that Elon Musk is reportedly implementing a technical fix that should prevent Russia from using his Starlink satellite internet service from extending the range of their drones to hit more parts of Ukraine. This week, the Deputy Prime Minister of Poland kind of yelled at Elon about this on Twitter and accused him of making money on war crimes, and in response, Elon called him a drooling invasal, but good to see cooler heads kind of prevailed here, and Elon seems to be doing the right thing. Just two other quick things on Ukraine, so the Washington Post had a big report that's worth your time to read that is very disturbing about how hundreds of many Kenya have been lured to Russia with promises of civilian jobs or security jobs, and then just sent to the front lines with no training, and they don't even speak the language, and this sort of thing could be happening to men in a dozen other African countries. And then finally, Ben, the last remaining non-proliferation treaty between the US and Russia is set to expire on Thursday of this week. That would essentially just light on fire two decades of bipartisan diplomatic work and could lead to a new nuclear arms race between the US, Russia, and maybe China. So all good news in this section. Yeah. When you put it like that, I think that the Trump's credulous nature with Putin is just astonishing to me, but it's also because he doesn't actually care whether Putin is going to do what he said. He just likes to be able to go out and say, well, I got him to agree to this. And by the way, that clip I'm sure played, you know, to carry the theme of Fox News forward, I'm sure that clip played on Fox News. I'm pretty sure that they probably didn't cover what you just followed up with, which is that was complete bullshit. So if you're consuming the pageantry of the MAGA presidency, you know, Trump is telling you that he got Putin to stop this and he's saving lies in Ukraine. The reality is the war in Ukraine has gotten much worse with the Ukrainians under Trump. Like the violence is up, the attacks are up, like their battlefield losses. They're not getting support from the United States in the way that they did. They're, they aligns at backstem is fracturing, right? And this kind of, to tie all this together, you know, I remember when we were back in the Russia hoax days, you know, and, but people used to speculate like, what, what does Putin want from Trump? Does he want sanctions relief, or does he want this, or does he want that? No, Putin wants exactly what is happening right now. Like let's just think about what we've been talking about. Right, right? Yeah. He can just beat the shit out of the Ukrainians and the President of the United States will tell the world that he Putin has agreed to not do that, even though he's doing it. He just watched the NATO alliance fracture over a fucking Greenland, right? He's watching the elite of the United Kingdom and the United States and several European countries be completely exposed as a bunch of perverted criminals in the Epstein files. I'm not saying he's behind all that, I'm just suggesting that like nobody's had a better a few weeks in Vladimir Putin. And he's just sitting there and, and Trump is just wrecking the Atlantic Alliance, destroying the dollar, fucking over the Ukrainians. Look, you actually couldn't design it if you were a Russian intelligence person. And I don't, I'm not saying that whether or that's because Trump is compromised or whether that's more likely just because Trump is a combination of an idiot and somebody would virus Putin, it doesn't matter, it's the outcome that I'm talking about. And there's no accountability, like reporters try to ask him about the stuff, he just, he doesn't care. There will be no accountability for the fact that he said he would end this war in 24 hours. It's been well over a year. I saw the other journalist posted a photo. So all around the White House, there's something, they're these thing called Jumbo's. It's basically the White House photographer will put up like a selection of 20 to 50 of their favorite photos at any given time and they get kind of rotated. They put up one of Putin and Trump in Alaska at the like absolutely disastrous fail, fucking summit. It's like, why would you put a Jumbo of that up on the wall? That just suggests you do not, like you fundamentally do not care about the policy outcome of your Trump. No, you don't. And but this is actually the, in like some journalist try like Caitlin Collins. Yeah, she did a great job today, Trump. She did. So I'm not saying all of these, she has about Epstein and he told her he's never seen her smiles. Like the most sexist patronizing thing you've ever seen. But the reality is, you know, Joe Biden would get, you know, yelled questions about why you aren't providing, you know, certain tank system to Ukraine for weeks. This guy said he'd end the war in day one and we're over a year in the presidency and the war's got much worse and they, he should be pushed harder on it and more regularly because this is absolute bullshit. The whole reason he invented the eight wars that he ended that he didn't end is to destroy, I mean, this is a distraction, but it's not like a distraction with action. Because I'm going to invent these other wars I ended because the one that actually people cared about, you know, was Gaza and Ukraine. And Gaza we talked about is not exactly a ceasefire and, and Ukraine is just much, much worse. The other war I really wish you would care about is, is Sudan. So two updates out of there. So for the, like the third year in a row, Sudan is one of the worst, about the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet. The quick background is this fighting started in April of 2023, it was between the Sudanese military and a rebel group called the RSF. They were once allies in crushing Sudan civilian government, but had a falling out and now it's, you know, year three of this nightmare. However, but these, these groups are not fighting alone. So that the RSF forces, they get weapons in support from the United Arab Emirates, including drones made in China while the Saudis and Qatar have been backing the Sudanese military, which according to the New York Times, they buy a lot of weapons from Turkey, Russia and Iran. If that wasn't complicated enough, the Times reported that Egypt is now getting directly involved. The Sudanese military is apparently now flying drones that they bought from Turkey from a secret base in southern Egypt that the Times, I think, found with satellite imagery. The Times, they said, it's not clear if it's Egyptian or Sudanese troops that are actually operating these drones, but what they think happened was after the RSF took this major city of El Fasher, the Times thinks that, you know, LCC, then the Egyptians got worried that the RSF was going to fully take over Sudan. And they were already pissed that like 1.5 million refugees had flown from Sudan into Egypt, and so they decided to get directly involved. And speaking of El Fasher, Ben, like we still don't know the full death toll from that massacre. There are some analysts who believe that up to 100,000 people could have been killed in that one single siege of a city. But now experts who are warning about what was going to happen in El Fasher and we're right are sounding the alarm about a region in Sudan called South Cortefon, which is like one of the 18 states that makes up Sudan. The Norwegian Refugee Council published a press release yesterday saying, quote, "The world is once again failing civilians in Sudan with a clock ticking on further widespread atrocities. We got a voice note from the Norwegian Refugee Council Secretary General Yann Eglund who was just back from South Cortefon. Here's a clip. This will flee, mostly women and children. We saw very few men, they seem to be dead, missing or detained or cannot leave. The women walked for days together with a small children to the refugee camps where we tried to give them as much aid as we can with our local Sudanese partners. But we're overstretching underfunded. I've hardly seen in my many as a humanitarian worker, so little available aid in such a tremendous emergency. And now we're in a countdown to a famine of biblical proportions. If we cannot search aid within the next three months because the rainy season starts in May and then the bad roads that are now difficult to navigate, they become impossible in the six months of rains." So catastrophic situation, according to the IRC, they estimate more than 150,000 people have been killed. 12 million have been displaced by the fighting in over 33 million people, which is about 2/3 of the population of the entire country of Sudan need humanitarian relief. So again, the Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize. If he turned his attention to ending this conflict, I think he would earn that, but he just doesn't care. Well, in a lot of the countries that are involved in the proxy war, we've talked about the UA and their backing for the RSF, you talk about Egypt. These are countries that Trump can pick up the phone. Definitely. You know, madman that he is and say, "Cut this shit out." This is a solvable problem in part because of how much external power has drive the proxy fight. The other piece of this is, which we've talked about, in God bless, Jan Eglund and the Norwegian refugee council and the IRC and these organizations, because USAID would have been marshaling, not only providing these systems, but marshaling these systems from other countries. countries. And that's gone now. So, I mean, if ever you're, you know, if people have resources, you know, the Norwegian Refugee Council, IRC, save the children, like the people that have to operate in these spaces, like a lot of them took hits from the USAID going away or a lot of their own governments are cutting funding. So, unfortunately, we're dealing with bigger problems with less resources. You see the, the, the, the Lancet, which is this distinguished medical journal, had a study out today that said the global aid cuts that were led by the kind of USAID defenestoration by Elon Musk could lead to 9.4 million deaths by 2030. Because we make our cuts that a bunch of other countries are all the same. And it could actually end up being worse than that because that's what you can project out based on nutrition and health. But these wars, where, I mean, that's often, you know, where you're rushing assistance to, like this is just not there. Yeah, that's devastating. Okay, our second last story today is about oil, fringe, separatist groups, treason, and then Donald Trump's lust for revenge, Ben. So, it's a fun one. So, last week, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration has met with far-right separatists from the Alberta Prosperity Project three times since May. So the APP, they're pushing for a referendum for the Canadian province of Alberta to break away from the rest of Canada, become its own country for, you know, economic governance, cultural and human rights reasons. Now, imagine some listeners are thinking like, who cares? Why do I care about a random province in Canada? The answer is oil. Up to 84% of Canada's oil production comes out of Alberta and around 60% of its natural gas output comes from Alberta. So, they're obviously a bunch of other implications for, you know, what losing a province would mean for a country. But that we're going to focus on the oil part because that's what Trump cares about. These separatists are hoping to meet again with Trump officials to, quote, "discuss our feasibility study regarding a $500 billion US line of credit to support the transition to a free and independent Alberta." So not only are they hoping to break away, they want us to finance it. Here's the head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a guy named Jeffrey Rath, talking to CTV about his plan. Let's watch. I understand that there's a lot of Ontarians and people in Quebec that suffered deeply from Trump derangement syndrome, but we're not doing anything untoward. It's absolutely, you know, from our perspective, we're just conducting due diligence on behalf of our fellow Albertans. We take what we're doing very seriously, and obviously the attitude of the United States towards Alberta independence, which incidentally is overwhelming and the enthusiastic, is something that informs our movement going forward. If the United States said, "Oh, God, we can't tolerate that. It flies in the face of, you know, the Communist New World Order. We'll have slap a 300% tariff on Albertans if they leave because we want you to remain resource slaves of the Communist Government in Ottawa." You know, it would be a totally different conversation, but that's not the case. We're gratified that it's the case. And quite frankly, the Trump administration shows Albertans far more respect than is shown to Albertans by the government in Ottawa. Love it like an Albertan separatist looks like Robert Ford and a cowboy. Yeah, yeah, yeah, you know. So this was like a great scoop by the FTE, but the Trump administration hasn't really been hiding their interest in this plan. Here's a Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talking about the referendum on a right-wing podcast a few weeks ago. Albert is a natural partner for the U.S. They have great resources. The Albertans are very independent people. Rumors that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not. Sounds like you may know something up there. People are saying people, people, people, people are talking. Many people are talking, people want a sovereignty. They want what the U.S. has got. KG fucking soybean farmer. So Ben, up in Canada, this whole idea has gone over about as well as a farting a pickup truck idling at a Tim Horton's drive-through. Can I, can I, a chain on my inner axle rod for that? KG Prime Minister Mark Carnie told reporters, quote, "We expect the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty. The British Columbia's premiere went so far as to call the group's actions treason. According to a recent poll, only 28% of Albertans support a move towards independence. I'm sure even fewer would be excited about a plan to become the 51st state." But Ben, it's an incredible story, I think, about the links to which this administration will go for oil, for greed, and to just punish a country that used to be one of our closest allies in the world because they will not take its orders. First of all, I just want to point out that our producer Michael is very focused in the story, almost suspiciously. I don't know what his ties are to Albertans separatists. There's some crypto flows around. There's some fairies looking into. No, I actually think this is a really important story, and for a couple of reasons. You remember when Trump got elected the second time, and he started talking about Canada's 51st state, and he started talking about Greenland, and they were talking about Willie McKinley. Remember that he's the president who started formal empire of the United States, right? I think that in a world where Trump could do whatever he wanted, he would like Alberta to be, and when he says Canada 51st state, I just think he means Alberta. It was a resource. That's where the oil is. It's also, even though I don't think they want to be in the United States, but it is kind of like the Texas, it's right wing. It's more conservative. It's more conservative, and so they look at that, and they're like, well, you know, wouldn't it be great if we had Greenland and the Panama Canal and Alberta? Like, I actually think that-- Ben is willing. Yeah, and Ben is willing, which has the most oil in Latin America, right? And I actually think that that is what he wants. That's what Trump would like. He would like that to happen. And so this is something that he actually will pursue, right? And I don't know that it'll like invade Alberta, but like this leads me to the second point, which is it is so striking to me, and this comes back to my Putin theme, that their play is so Russian, right? Remember the separatists in Donetsk and Lahansk who Russia had to invade Ukraine to come to the aid of these separatists, right? Like, this is not some new plan invented by Trump, but they tried it in Greenland. Remember, they sent Don Jr. there to find the separatists in Greenland? You couldn't fucking find anybody. And he's like, you know, trying to take people to launch or something, you know? But like, that's what they want. It's so obvious what the playbook is. It's like, find like a bunch of guys like this fat ass and the hat, you know, you're allowed to say that. Sure. Okay. Who like say they declare themselves separatists, and then all of a sudden you have a wedge and then you got Scott Besson, you know, the seemingly serious man in the administration, although he's talking to like real America news or whatever that is. That's like a pizzeria guy. Yeah. He was talking about real. But, uh, hey, Canadians pay attention to this, because this is, I mean, I don't think it'll work, but, you know, this is what they like. Some Albertan separatists that we have to come to the aid of, like they're in Donetsk and where the Russian army, you know? Yeah. To me, it's a story of, I just think the kind of relentlessness with which these guys are coming back at. They don't have to roll tanks across the border into Toronto, but like, you know, they're being kind of creative. And you're right. They're stealing kind of a time-honored playbook here of, you know, promoting independence in Greenland and Canada. But they are being created. Yeah. And I'd say the Canadians at a minimum, beware of like, right, we media coming up there, like, you know, social media bots, like they will try to run this play and foster separatism and all the rest of it. Creepy stuff. Finally, Ben, I just want to tell you guys all a story about a young Frenchman who's situation rapidly went from bad to worse, and we'll talk about how it escalated. So this is not about a manual Macron. This is about a 24-year-old who showed up at a hospital in Toulouse, according to a police source, quote, "In a state of extreme discomfort, having inserted a large object up his rectum." Right? So that's bad. Then the doctors tell him that to get it out, they need to perform a emergency surgery, right? So that is worse, right? Then they do the surgery, and the doctors realize that the object was an unexploded artillery shell dating back to the First World War. Now we're like, it's so much worse that I don't even know where on the continuum we're at anymore, you know, at a man of worse. So they call in bomb disposal experts, the hospital had to be evacuated. It turns out that the shell dated back to 1918, and it was about eight inches long in grads, and had an inch in girth and less. So with a pointy end, perhaps worse of all Ben, it was a German shell. Talk about beaten back the hunts. So anyway, all's well that ends well, I guess, but a reminder to all you history buffs out there. Be careful. Be careful with what you're up to. Just where did you get that story? It's like the Daily Mail or something. That was a hot hot in the crooked slab. I want to try to imagine the thought process in series events that led to that occurring. So I guess it's just a story, Tommy, about the unintended consequences of war. Yes, they never end. They never end. I also think if you know anyone who's worked in an ER, they spend an inordinate amount of time removing things from anuces. But boy, what luck? Not in my thing. Unexploded shell. Yeah. Fuck man. Also, he might face charges of mishandling category amunitions. That's going to jail for that. That'd be tough. That's how do you explain that to your cellmate? No. Say back. All right. Okay. That's it for the news in California of course in this segment. Stick around though. You're gonna hear Ben's conversation with Ali Vias about what the hell is happening around after the protests, whether Trump might bomb them, who might come next. So very important, timely conversation. You will not want to miss it. (upbeat music) Pate, the world is brought to you by Haya. There's something unsettling to consider as a parent. Our kids are the first generation growing up on ultra-process foods. And we are only now beginning to understand the long-term effects on our kids' health. 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Just mix one scoop with milk or any non-dairy beverage and watch them actually enjoy something that's secretly fueling their growing bodies. We've worked out a special deal with Haya for their best-selling children's vitamin. Receive 50% off your first order. To claim this deal, you must go to hayahealth.com/world. This deal is not available on the regular website. Go to hayahealth.com/world and get your kids a full-body nourishment they need to grow into healthy adults. - US voters abroad. Go to votefromabraud.org and click Request My ballot as to receive it by email. Questions? Don't delay. Votefromabraud.org. (upbeat music) - I'm very pleased to be joined by Ali Weiss, who's the Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group and a friend of the pod over here. Ali, welcome to the show. - Great to be with you, Ben. - All right, so it's been a pretty dizzying few weeks here. Just a recap, we had a massive protest erupt against the Iranian regime. They felt different. They were much broader based across the society. Many factors in forming that. You had President Trump threaten US military action if people were killed, saying help is on the way. Thousands of people were subsequently killed. And the US took pretty nominal action, some additional sanctions as if that's gonna make the difference. But then he sent this, quote unquote, "armada" towards Iran. It seemed like we were renting back up the strikes. He was threatening again. Now there are negotiations going on to stop things from progressing. So that's where we are. I wanna get into a few pieces of this with you, Ali. But I mean, how would you describe where things stand now for our listeners? - As you said, Ben, it's really a dizzying turn of events. And just before coming online, I was checking the news and it appears that the meeting on Friday in Istanbul is now in doubt because apparently, the Iranians are asking for a meeting to be moved to Oman. They're all sorts of other rumors of why it might not happen. But who knows? I wouldn't be surprised if Friday or this weekend, President Trump has bombed Iran. I wouldn't be surprised if the outlines of a deal have been announced. - Yeah, that's exactly where I am. Let's start. I wanna get into the deal. Then I wanna get into the regional players. And then I wanna get into kind of the politics of Iran. I know it's a lot, but I think we can get through it. On the deal, what we keep hearing is familiar to me, actually, Ali, 'cause it was what was in Prime Minister Netanyahu speech to Congress way back in 2014. Some of us remember that. It's no domestic enrichment. So essentially no nuclear program. It's no ballistic missile program. And it's no support for proxies. And I hear that and I understand why the Iranians would want to negotiate because they think they could probably drag out negotiations and avoid being bombed. But I also don't see the Supreme Leader, the Iranian leadership accepting those terms. I mean, what do you think is the possible here in terms of some potential agreement? - Okay, so let me first say that there are several issues with diplomacy. One is the question of style, the second is scope and then third is substance. On style, what is different now is that Iranians seem to rely much more on regional mediation than was the case in the past. As you remember, the Europeans were always the intermediaries between Iran and the US. But there are still some serious differences between the two sides. Apparently, the Trump administration's position is that they don't want to waste time through indirect negotiations. They want direct talks with Iran. Iran still insists as long as the US postures was around a so hostile, they're not gonna have direct talks and they want others in the room. Interestingly, since last September that the European snapback to sanctions, UN sanctions on Iran and have now also designated revolutionary guards as a terrorist organization after the protest, Iran, Europe relations are at a historic low. And the Iranians have decided to replace the E3, which are France, UK, and Germany, with what I call the ME3, the Middle East tree, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar. These are the countries that also signed the Gaza deal with President Trump. And of course, the key criteria here is that they have personal and good relations with the president and have direct access to it. So that's a question of style and regardless of whether the talks happen in Istanbul this Friday or at some point later down the road, there will be regional mediation. We can discuss why the region is now so interested. Second is the question of scope. As you said, there's always been this pressure to try to get non-nuclear issues also on the table. Every administration has been interested in that. Almost every administration has come to the conclusion that the nuclear should be the priority because it was the most urgent. But what is different now, even compared to last, early last year when the Trump administration had five rounds of talks with Iran, is that the facts on the ground are different. Iran's nuclear program has been significantly degraded. Iran has not enriched a gram of uranium since the 12th day war last June. And so, suspending uranium enrichment is no longer a red line for Iran. It is fact on the ground. And maybe that provides some space for maneuvering without necessarily Iran giving up on its right to enrichment. Which as you remember, again, going back to the Obama years, has always been a major issue from the Iranian perspective. Then there's also the question of proxies, right? The Iranian non-state allies in the region have also been significantly degraded. There's so much harder for Iran now to send arms and money to Hezbollah in Lebanon or to even to the Houthis in Yemen, than was the case in the past. So maybe issues like that could also be put on the table. And then finally is a question of the substance of negotiations on what will Iran get in return for these concessions? Would we get some sort of a agreement on principles and then fill in the details later, which seems to be the method of choice for the Trump administration? So there are lots of questions that are out there. And I would say that the gaps between the two sides are still pretty significant. But one thing that brings them together, I think, is the realization that the alternative, which is a conflict, is so much more unattractive. And do you think the only thing you did mention there's ballistic missiles, which seems like it would probably be the hardest thing for Iran to concede, because it's their potential insurance policy to say we can hit US bases or we can hit Israel in an existential conflict. What do you look for in the substance of ballistic missiles? Yeah, I didn't open that count of worms because it's a much more difficult thing to tackle. But the reality is, ever since the 12th they were in June, the Iranians concluded that actually their ballistic missiles are the only credible, viable tool of defending themselves. The policy of forward defense of having these partners and proxies away from Iran's borders didn't protect Iran in a way you can even say it invited an attack on Iran. But their missiles did get through Israel's multi-layered defense system did inflict the kind of damage on Israel. the country had not experienced since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. So you know, every Iranian official I've talked to since the conflict last year have told me that they've realized that their best defense is offense, and their best option is to invest on their missile program. So I see no possibility of Iran giving up on its missile program, or accepting Israeli terms, which are to limit the range of Iranian missiles so that they would not reach Israel. I mean, Ben, if you look at the case of Hisbullah in Lebanon, a group that was almost defeated by Israel ever since October 7th, and especially in 2024, Israel hasn't been able to manage this armed Hisbullah. It's impossible to imagine that a state like Iran that relies on missiles as cordless national security would ever give up this card. But are there other options? For instance, you can imagine a scenario in which Iranians would agree to put limits on testing satellite launchers that could basically provide them with options for intercontinent ballistic missiles. That would target U.S. interests directly, and President Trump can sell that as a major victory, President Obama could never get anything like that. Biden could never get anything like that. So there are other options if both sides step aside from maximum estimate. Yeah, no, that's a good point on ICBMs, which they don't have as it is, so they're not giving up something they have. The one thing that we just didn't talk about was protest, you know, Trump's kind of giving up the game in some ways that these talks are not really about defending peaceful protests. But the momentum seems to be a regime-change-type strike, whether it's an actual decapitation of the Iranian regime, or whether it's kind of really blasting regime targets across the board, the RGC, the Basis militia who are involved in the crackdowns, maybe some regime leadership, and you kind of take a shot and see what happens. Thus far, that has not happened, that could still happen, like you said. To me, it seems like the reason it hasn't happened is, at least in part, you mentioned the ME3, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar. Behind that, I think the Saudis are at least a silent partner, but I would imagine the Saudis have, I saw the Saudi defense minister come out and say, you know, something that suggested they might be okay with strikes, but everything I know about the Saudi suggested they're probably pretty wary of a regime-change war in their neighborhood. They've had a rapprochement of sorts with Iran in recent years. Why do you think that particular set of countries is intent on preventing a war? Egypt's an interesting participant in that because in the past, they've kind of been at odds with the Iranians in part because they're Gulf patrons and the Emirates in Saudi war too, but why do you think we see those countries trying so hard to divert this outcome? It's a very interesting question, so I would say two reasons, two main reasons. One is that the countries in the region have seen this movie before. They know what happens when the U.S. tries regime change and not part of the world, even when there is a policy process, when there is a plan and even seemingly well intentions, it ends in grief, and they are the ones who pay the price for it. There will be instability, radicalization, and refugees spilling across their borders. Turkey is already very concerned. They lived with Syrian refugees for many years. Iran is a country five times the size of Syria. A country of 92 million if it becomes a failed state. It's a major problem for everyone. Before we get to that stage of the U.S. turning Iran into another failed state, they might be caught in the crossfire as we saw in the hot summer of 2019. When Iran was cornered in President Trump's first German office, it lashed out against ports in the UAE, against Saudi oil infrastructure, against shipping in the Persian Gulf, and the strait of foremost. Everybody would pay a price for that kind of confrontation. But there is another reason which I think is often overlooked, which is the fact that as much as the regional countries might welcome a weakened Iran, they don't want a vanquished Iran, because that would eliminate the last obstacle or counterweight to Israeli hegemony in the region. And that's not what they want. So I think Israel's assertiveness is aggressiveness. It's ascendance, especially with the attack on Qatar last year. It has been a wake-up call for a lot of countries in the region, and they don't want to change the balance of power in a way that it would benefit Israel even more. Yeah, that's fascinating. It seems like that Doha strike is kind of what finally got the ceasefire such as it is. It's not exactly holding, but over the line. But if I may add, I mean, just think about how extraordinary it is. Egypt, a country that doesn't even have the dramatic relations with Iran, is doing so much behind the scenes to make this happen. Yeah. And President Trump is hearing the exact same thing from the leaders of Pakistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Oman, and even Russia. It's really quite stunning concerts of regional countries coming together. And these are all people he listens to, unlike, you know, more than I'd say, like a Lindsey Graham. Well, on Iran itself, I mean, you've done great work over the years and just trying to understand both the leadership dynamic in Iran, the public opinion dynamic in Iran. If we do, I mean, one of the questions that has not been answered, including, you know, Marco Rubio, acknowledges in recent testimony, he was asked who would come next and he said, nobody knows. If we do have a regime change scenario, either because of US military action or just because of some kind of, you know, we wake up one day and, you know, it's like Syria people are on a plane to Moscow. What is your sense of what comes next? I'm sure you get this question all the time, but like who are the players that we should at least be considering as viable alternatives to the Supreme Leader? Well, I think we should first make it clear that there is no viable organized alternative outside of Iran. As much as there might be publicity around potential alternatives, the reality is that nobody has infrastructure on the ground in order to be able to hold the country together if there is some sort of a political vacuum at the pinnacle of power. That leaves us with options inside Iran. Inside Iran, you have, as a friend of mine says, a lot of Nelslan Mandelas, but no A&C, no organized opposition inside the country who can take over. So people like Nobel Laureate, Nargis-Mahamadi, former politician, Mustafa Tadjada, who's been in prison for 11 years, even former Prime Minister Musavi, the leader of the Green Movement, who's been under house arrest now for 15 years. All of these people have come out very foragiously, have said that time is up for the Islamic Republic and this regime has to go. Again, the problem is that they don't have any organization on the ground to be able to fulfill that objective. So you're left with either of these three scenarios, I think. One is some sort of regime transformation, similar to what happened in Venezuela, meaning that some parts of the structure decide that for their own survival, it is necessary to push aside the Supreme Leader, put a pillow to his face, ask him to resign or go teach at the seminary and go, or whatever other ideas that they can come up with. And then you would have a version of the Islamic Republic, which is fundamentally different than what we have today. But it would be the same crowd, more or less, who will be in charge. The other scenario is a scenario in which you would have basically a coup. So this is the first option was more of a soft transition and transformation. The second is a hard transformation. And some people in Saudi Iran are openly asking for some sort of Iranian bonapart, a strongman who comes and takes over. There's a lot of speculation about the character of Mahmat-Baghr-Khalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, a former commander of Revolutionary Guards maybe, and he's been in government for a long time and has very good ties with Revolutionary Guards and it's very ambitious man's rant for President several times. So there are options like him or others that are being considered or discussed. And then the final scenario, which is a far-fetched scenario, because this is a regime that is not just deeply entrenched but also deeply benched. And by that I mean then when in the 12th of the war, Israel took out 30 top Iranian generals. They were quickly replaced within hours, and Iran started punching back. So in a scenario of the U.S. dismantling the Iranian state, completely, which requires not just a few hours or a surgical strike, requires weeks and weeks of bombings. You would have more, the most likely a scenario is that you will have civil strife. You will have chaos. Because, as I said, there is no one who can hold the country together. And there is a lot of resentment within the Iranian society, not just against the regime, but also against, there's a lot of infighting among different political groups, minorities, the Kurds, the Baluchis, the Arabs, they have been mistreated than every other segment of the Iranian society. And Iran has the same fault lines that have resulted in civil war in Syria, in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Yemen, and so on. So it will be one of these three scenarios, I believe. And none of them, I would argue, are necessarily better for the U.S. or for the Iranian people. Yeah. And that leads to kind of the last thing I wanted to ask you, which is about the diaspora, you know, I think it's important both because it's a large and influential diaspora. Also, if people who are not close to Iran watchers are just kind of consuming things online, what they're mainly seeing is the diaspora, right? Because there's been an internet blackout in Iran. And, you know, Reza Palavi, the son of the Shah, is kind of not suddenly put himself forward as a potential guardian of some transition. He's also kind of appeared with Benjamin Netanyahu, kind of unsettling, embracing the U.S. and the Israeli government and encouraging them to militarily conduct regime change. And look, I should say, I have a lot of friends in the diaspora who have sincere and, you know, interests, obviously, and seeing a better future for the Iranian people, being able to return to places that they either themselves left or their parents left. I want to ask you, what is the gap between people inside Iran and the diaspora? Is this a challenge that the diaspora is just kind of not organized enough to, you know, help be a part of a transition, is a challenge that they're kind of out of touch with what's actually happening in the country? You know, in Libya, we worked with the diaspora transitional council that just had no ability to manage the transition. That's part of how Libya fell apart, and I put that on us in the Obama administration. But what is the role of the diaspora here, and how would you describe, kind of, the difference between, say, a Reza Palavi movement versus what is feasible in Iran? You touch on a little bit, but I think it's worth unpacking. So I say this as a member of the diaspora that, you know, it is actually a sad place that the diaspora is in right now. I do believe that there is a lot of sincerity and a sense of nationalism that drives what the diaspora does. I mean, when you see scenes of literally tens of thousands, of hundreds of thousands showing up in protests in European or US cities, in support of the Iranian people, that's quite something. And I do believe that they've done a lot in trying to grab the world's attention on what's happening and shed light on the atrocities that this regime has committed, especially this time around, but it is fundamentally different. You know, the speed and ferocity with which the regime brought down its Iran fist is really without precedent. We can discuss why, but again, part of the reason you see the Iran case, grabbing much more institutional attention than in some other countries, and the world where a lot of bad things happen there as well, I think is thanks to the diaspora. Having said this, you know, it's for a lot of them, it's 46, 47 years in exile. And they have not managed to create a broad umbrella. They have not managed to create a realistic, formula agenda that would be able to rally everyone around the same cause. And a lot of them are as intolerant as you would expect the Islamic Republic to be. You know, I think one of the reasons that Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978, 1979 succeeded in leading the revolution from the exile is that his formula was that you're an ally if you agree with us only at 10%. The current diasporos mood is and I will definitely be harassed and attacked for saying those. But their mood is if you agree with us at 90%, but you disagree, address at 10%, you're an enemy. And this is I think the reason that they haven't managed to come across as a serious alternative. Now, Reza Palavi himself, I think he's undeniable that his stock has improved in the past few months. You know, he's a perfect foil to the Islamic Republic. There is a sense of nostalgia about the economic prosperity and social freedom that defined his father's era. And a lot of the younger generation in Iran and abroad don't remember the authoritarian tendencies that he had which and also resulted in his downfall. But the key point is if you look at what he did, he called for mass mobilization on January 8th. And I do believe that a lot of people came to the streets because they invited them to the streets. He had no plan for the day after. He had no agenda on how to protect these people unarmed protesters who had come to the streets because he had called them out. And when the massacre happened, he had this interview on Fox News where he said, you know, this is a war and there is always collateral damage in a war. Which I think is highly irresponsible. He's hopeful that Israel or the U.S. would bomb Iran. But you know, returning to Iran on the back of U.S. fighter jets is not really a formula for building a better future for Iran. And his followers want him to reestablish an absolute monarchy. I mean, he says he wants to be a transitional leader. But his followers want him to basically just like his grandfather and his father to be an absolute monarch. And that alienates a lot of people. But here's the bottom line. At the end of the day, we just simply do not know how much support he has within Iran. I don't think it's in any way close to majority, but I don't have the data and nobody else does. And the only way that someone like him can present a viable alternative is to reach out to forces inside the country and to build a coalition with them. And he has simply not done that. So this is why, I think overall, the diaspora with all the well intentions that they have, unfortunately, have not been able to move the needle. Yeah. It's just an incredibly difficult situation. Like you, I admire the solidarity that's been shown, the attention that's been drawn. But I think there's kind of a good lesson there and the need to really construct that viable alternative, both inside and outside of Iran. That's the only pathway to something different and better, whether it's soon or whether it's after the Supreme Leader dies or whatever it is. Well, look, Ali, people should watch you follow your work at Crisis Group. You're prolific there, you're on social media, so people should follow you there. Thanks so much for joining us to kind of unpack all of this. Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me. Thanks again, Ali, Vyaz, for joining the show and talk to you guys next week. Potsy of the world is a crooked media production. Our senior producer is Alonam and Kovsky. Our producer is Michael Goldspin. Our associate producer is Anisha Bonerjee. We get production support from Saul Rubin, our executive producers, our meat on meat tour, and Ben Rhodes. The show is engineered, mixed and edited by Jordan Cantor, audio support by Kyle Seigland and Charlotte Landis. Thank you to our digital team, Ben Heffkoat, Mia Kelman, William Jones, David Tolls, and Ryan Young. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Adrian Hills, our senior vice president of Views and Politics. If you want to listen to Potsy of the World, add free and get access to exclusive podcasts. Go to Crooked.com/Friends to subscribe, on Supercast, Substac, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. 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