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EPS 281 | Dividend Earnings Season is still on fire | UNH, MO, SAP and LVMH

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EPS 281 | Dividend Earnings Season is still on fire | UNH, MO, SAP and LVMH

In this episode of the Dividend Talk podcast, the hosts review a dynamic earnings season marked by substantial dividend hikes and notable stock price declines, particularly in the technology sector. Companies like Microsoft and SAP experienced double-digit drops despite reporting strong quarterly growth, attributed to high market expectations and rich valuations. The discussion covers multiple dividend increases, including significant raises from Deutsche Bank (47%) and Microsoft (17%), alongside more modest hikes from firms like Chevron and LVMH. The hosts analyze specific earnings reports, noting LVMH's revenue dip in fashion and leather goods offset by cost reductions, and express caution around companies like Signify, which raised its dividend minimally amid operational struggles. They emphasize that dividend growth investing remains engaging, offering insights into global business trends and economic factors, while reiterating that their commentary is not financial advice but based on personal investment experiences and observations.

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Welcome to the dividend talk podcast episode 281 Erning season on fire and it rains dividends Hey everyone, it's Derek here from dividend talk every week European dividend growth investor Anoy sit down and chat about the world of dividend growth investing This week we are back on the topic of earnings and we're choosing some of the best companies from Europe also the United States of America as always if you want to continue the conversation after the show about companies we may have missed then please follow us on discord on Twitter on Facebook or any social media page and if you want to level up your investing then feel free to check out our premium service at dividendtalk.eu we'll see you on the inside What a crazy crazy week European D.J there's lots and lots to discuss we've got dividend hikes we've got earnings we've picked four we could have picked a lot more there's lots of news big kind of dropping Microsoft is dropping I mean it's crazy what is going on in the world this week a lot that's why I like dividend investing I mean who says it's ever as boring I mean it's been really raining the dividends day a big shower not all are as nice as we we hope so we've got a lot going on this week but I love it I don't know how it's for you but in the morning before I go to work quickly check if some earnings are in already then when I get home look a little bit deeper didn't miss something sometimes there's price action there and we'll talk about SAP for instance dropping 15% or Microsoft 12% dropping right we were used to this by Intel but now it's not just Intel anymore so we've got a new new few stocks to look at and maybe call one of those dividend day at a certain moment but yeah I don't know about you but I have a lot of passion for dividend investing I have a lot of passion for learning about businesses I mean I did a deep dive of visco fund the other day the Spanish how is it casing it's the real world but they make those rappers around meat yeah yeah about like like what you have on the hotdog yeah okay I shouldn't think further about this but it's so nice to learn about how all these businesses are doing right and you get such a nice insight in how the world is operating because I don't know some are blaming geopolitics others tariffs others are blaming the weather there's always something and others are just coasting they are just like doing what you expect to do them they don't whine about anything it's just like bam bam bam bam bam yeah so for me it's really entertaining these weeks I mean the boring middle for me is the summer not this yes I mean look we've got quite some news to unpack but before we get in thought that we will do a disclaimer that none of this is financial advice any of the companies mentioned here is not advice from us we are just going to talk about our own journey our own experience and and all of that so once that's the order the way let's get onto the news the week because there's some companies here that I want to talk about because you spoke about SAP before you spoke a lot about Microsoft I mean these are two big big companies and they've had two big big price drops this is not big kind I mean I thought we're going to be talking about the big kind price drop but no we're talking about one of the best companies in the world in Microsoft and also one of the best European one of the most thickiest companies in Europe in SAP yeah and I also saw a chart this week I think yesterday about the biggest drops in the stock market and I think 80 or 90% were information technology companies as software as a service companies I think there have been just so many expectations priced in into these earnings that the market is not taking any any little miss here and straightaway punish them so hard so hard and I can imagine that it even accelerates some selling then that people get scared of it Prince also sales force I think sales force hasn't been trading at these multiples for some time also pay a dividend since recently but SAP drop of what is 15% I will look at the earnings soon I will share a little bit my thoughts later in the podcast but Microsoft then I mean I I it's it's crazy when you think about because on the surface these earnings look very solid very good yeah I mean they grew their earnings in constant currency 15% to 81 billion in revenue in a single quarter 31 billion in that income in a in a single quarter I mean that was a 21% growth in a single quarter that that sink in at a company worth a few trillion this is crazy but this is crazy does that show that these companies are priced far perfection I mean they made five six billion more profit in the same quarter than last year yeah five six billion which company can claim that and they still drop double digits yeah okay so this has to do with valuation yeah and for me they have been always on the rich side with things because if you think well they make now let's say four dollars and third 14 cents in earnings right in a quarter so let's make it 16 dollars at a 20 multiple would be 320 let's be a bit more generous with with the rounding that I did those so maybe 340 340 would be 20 PE so they're still probably trading at 27 PE something like that but then you're only thinking about 20 PE which is kind of what some stocks consumer staples are trading at like maybe Pepsi and such with no growth yeah so that's what we're talking and this company is growing 25% bottom line so this may be a pack ratio like price earnings divide by growth in the low one if if you if you will take it now at face value I mean I'm doing this from my head so maybe the numbers look a little bit less attractive but all I'm trying to say is like on the surface it looks really good the current execution looks really good I think that there is also something maybe there there's a little bit of a not a red flag and orange flag so they have this commercial remaining performance obligation that that increased by 110% with an average duration of two now if you're talking here about 625 billion the the issue is that a lot of this a lot of this comes from open AI so roughly 45% of the commercial balance is driven by commitments from open AI yeah so if you take that away the remaining balance from our broad customer base grew 28% yeah with benefit from the and tropic commitment so what I'm trying to say there's a lot of a lot of dependency in their future order book let's say based on open AI and we know open AI there is a lot going on there with the Nvidia investments and and and all this like you know the circular money that's going on so this may not look too good on Microsoft and you know I never really know why the share price is going down you sometimes it's it's quite obvious because there's one single narrative but sometimes it's a bit harder so I would assume here that it has a little bit to do with that but also that it was priced really good but I didn't have a feeling that Microsoft is out of the ordinary in terms of fellow evaluation I don't see Microsoft like the volunteers Tesla's of this world yeah so I'm I'm still a little bit surprised by how how hard it has been punished how hard it has been punished but hey I think the whole world is wondering now or at least all the listeners that we have I guess our listener base is as big as a state of Luxembourg so what are you going to do are you going to buy your first share I seen I seen someone wrote this card am I going to do the right the right thing and buy back my shares not the moment I tell you why it is getting close I think like you said it's trading probably 24/26 P.E. rate which for the growth company like this is definitely forgivable to consider on what you said around 20 P.E. for some consumer stable so it's getting it's getting close I have to say it's getting more and more attractive I think of the of the Mag 7 stocks now that you have it's probably one of the most attractively valued I think Google's after growing. I think 7 P.E. Yeah I've already grown in taxi. Yeah so yeah it's getting it's getting close but I do have some shares I have to remind you I have some shares in my trading 2.12 P.E. just not enough. So it just now it came from 520 high it's just 90 dollars down when is it good enough for you then when when when when will you feel like just I mean okay you know what if it drops below 400 and you don't buy it then then I will do a GoFundMe or something like that or buy me a coffee and I will ask all the listeners to chip in so that you can buy a single share of Microsoft okay I will I will buy it if it drops below 400 I will buy it okay if you don't we will do a buy me a coffee for you we just need people to do 5 euro each or 5 dollar each so we need 80 people and we'll get you a Microsoft share because just I mean I have to share the dividends then as well. No but on the next dividend talk meetup you should buy us all a coffee back yeah no yeah okay good good you'll get so 400 it is so that's like another 7-8% drop yeah yeah we'll get that. I hope so for you you need the share just as a token I mean I have the same as a mail I've got one share but maybe about different hikes that we want to go to it hike the dividend by 17% nice nice nice massive impact on your portfolio by God I just entering this in my sheet and you see the dividends annual income and dividends bump up by a few cents like it's like a wet dream I mean yeah you can't make this up it's it's amazing yeah but look speaking I have speaking of different hikes we've got a lot of hikes to look at right now and one of the ones that Konnistokia was Patrick Sherbler's and it's Deutsche Bank which increased its dividend by 47% I know I know that you are big into your next big into London stock exchange group but what are your thoughts on Deutsche Bank if they have a question bank it's not Deutsche Berzer Deutsche Berzer. Of course yes Deutsche Bank Deutsche Berzer I think this is all former nationalized stuff the Germany wants privatized here and they just talk Deutsche in front of it it's one of the only countries I think in the world where they always take their country name in front of it do you have like Irish Bank do you have like Irish posts on the stock exchange do you have everything starting with Irish? No no no we have one bank Allied Irish Bank AOEB Bank of Ireland but it's not it's not the force it's not like Irish that's not yeah yeah because in the Netherlands you have ING it's not starting with maybe the ISME for Irish you have AB&MRO although you have National and Netherlands and then group but they even they took Netherlands it's now NN group so yeah now there's something with the Germans and sticking Deutsche in front of it yeah so I read that wrong first of all it's Deutsche Bank and they increased a bank increased its dividend by 47% so what do you think it is it's amazing I think he made already 300% on this in terms of dividends so Patrick and then he's of course referring the bankers are no wankers because they are really increasing the dividend and it's right he's right in this case yeah kudos to you Patrick enjoy those dividends as long as they last but kudos to you yeah the cash flow is coming in and I just want to say like don't get used to it Patrick in the end these are bankers yeah they give you an umbrella when the sun shines yeah remember that but when it rains they are not there for you you're standing outside in the rain you're getting so wet you wonder why am I doing this why am I why am I doing this you all think scientific which is a company that's come up a little bit in the last few weeks around their circles it's it's dividend by 20% to 72% per share it's a matter of as you alluded to I had a massive 17% hike which I mean as a business goes it's fantastic what they are doing we've got a telecom provider APN height it's dividend by 10% um also euro price so euro yeah euro price are performing well here their dividend increased with 7% AVD who we spoke about last week or the week before I raised its dividend by 7% rush was quite disappointing for me they only raised it by just about 1% but they're they're starting to see some proper growth after the pandemic so they struggled I'd say for several requires after the pandemic we were starting to see decent growth so I'm expecting hopefully a bigger raise over them next year but currency is killing them from what I read on their report no fee had a nice 5.1% raise and announced the 1 billion buyback say raise it's dividend by your buffing you must have put this in there oh yeah buffing one euro cent you know what they do right signify that's a spin off from Philips you know Philips has already several years the same dividend and and they are selling light even the ticket control is light yeah and they're just struggling I mean I open the report and it's this is down that is down this is down that is down I felt like well you know this is if you would come home as a teenager with such a results list at the end of your school year you would be sent to a summer camp to work by your parents yeah but these guys they just get away and say like hey let's hike the dividend 1% because it's a second allocation capital allocation policy the first one is safe balance sheet a safe credit rating and then rising dividend so at least for dividend investors that are looking for this growing growing dividend they are exactly doing what you want them to do it's an 8% yield here so you could maybe treat this as a high income but I mean if I will get home with such a a result list when I was a teenager to my parents I would have house arrest for a week and then in an hour times you would be sent to your bedroom right and it was a punishment now I've asked and my kids to the bedroom I screw myself because they are very happy to be there yeah they have phones they have a PlayStation everything yeah I get a put an 8% yield for a company I signify is a big big risk for me I spoke to you before Phillips was one of the top brands for loading that we use to use going back when I was electrician and probably shown my age and how long ago that was there was still part of Phillips at that time but that industry moves fast to have to say it moves very fast and I'm not up to date on signify but I do know that we're looking at renovating our house and we're looking at all this kind of stuff and Phillips is not even coming up on the list when I when I go to the suppliers I used to go so that says a lot to me yeah but they are they've installed the lights at the the Roman theater or something like that yeah that's what you see in your annual report yeah that's that's what they belong back in time but we've moved on probably they're sponsored as well yeah yeah yeah and actually it's dividend 2.9 percent which is well quite a quite a small one but it's just 16 consecutive year of dividend growth at less capital who you are quite fond of kept this dividend flat and but it's it's quite awkward this one because it keeps it's it's based dividend flat but then it gives a special dividend of whether it's two Swedish crowns that based dividend is three Swedish crowns and that's when I look back at your deep thought that's one thing I quite saw and then the dividend history is quite awkward to analyze because if you take away the special dividend it looks like it's flat or even culture times for the pay special dividend every time which brings it up so it's yeah so let's of course struggling a little bit at the moment so I mean it's it's not easy for some of those industrial companies at the moment all the all what's going on in the world but on the other end back shoring as I call it to the European continent to the American continent requires also an equipment refresh cycle typically so there's a lot of opportunities at the at the other hand as well they're struggling at the moment Louis Vuitton kept its dividend flat we'll talk about that later Charles Swab how it's dividend by 19 percent not a banker Chevron how it's dividend by 4 percent and then Elchrey Harris is the final one with 4.2 percent and Swab is quite interesting it's not with 19 percent yeah yeah and it's a bigger hike than SCHD in this case over the last year yeah so yeah it's interesting I'm very interested for instance also about interactive brokers I need to look into that one as well they also are doing quite well lately they've shown a lot of growth but I believe they had a bit too expensive in terms of multiples but I think Swab and interactive brokers are things that I would like to look into a little bit to try to see if this is like investment worthy for us we have been spending a lot of time on the stock exchanges right on the stock exchange group euro next the CME and NASDAQ all of this so I wonder how the likes of Swab and such fit into this as well so that's quite far on my side it'd be quite awkward right if you'd review interactive brokers and realize they aren't below power but then we have all our cash in in their brokerage comes a little bit awkward then nice look plenty plenty of dividend hikes and expect them some more and I can't wait for some more European ones over the next few weeks we should keep them rolling in um so Aaronings and yeah look we mentioned Louis Vuitton kept its dividend flat so I think it's a good place to start with them I know you're quite fun with them so talk us through your earnings what did you learn what's good what's bad well what's let's start what's good they reduce their debt by 26% to 6.8 billion I really like that and the operating free cash flow increased by 8% to 11.3 billion good numbers revenue it's a bit of a different game declined by 5% from 84.6 billion to 80.8 billion this doesn't come as a surprise the trend was very clear in Q1 and Q2 I would say in the second half of the year I think they not reverse the trend but it kind of stops declining the extent that was doing yeah it's really simple actually with LVMH um half of the revenue comes from fashion and leather goods 75% of the profit comes from fashion and leather goods so it's really one business line you really need to pay attention to fashion and leather goods declined by 13% in net income and by 8% in revenue so it is a bit like a fashion and leather goods is not operating you will drag all the rest down yeah so it has a high exposure to that they are saying that the year before japan tour season was very high there and and brought a lot of earnings and revenue in and this year not really that much but it was still declined by 2 billion in revenue so that's really what you need to know about Louis Vuitton I mean we can talk about the spirits right as I always say your body is a temple so you should fill it with spirits we tried to do the Lemelmo but those were not the the LVMH kind of spirits yeah we kept it with Diaggio we felt they had more need to be supported but then you know it's it's like a 5 billion business compared to 40 billion business and a 1 billion profit compared to 13 billion profits so I'm just mentioning this like you can study a lot you can really be scared about Gen Z and everything I think LVMH had this what was it they had this crap kind of bag created remember that lobster they had a lobster bag created yeah I think that's probably why it is down I mean they shouldn't play around with this kind of shite well I do find impressive because oftentimes when you see a company declining revenue they struggle with their cost basis yeah and that that has been helping them a lot so while they went from 84.6 billion to 80.8 billion in revenue so let's say decline of 4 billion they were able to lower the cost of sales by half a billion but also by a billion their marketing and sales expenses plus another 300 million lower in general net management rate of expenses so a lot of this delta half of the delta has been also caught let's say captured by cost reductions and this is what I like yeah and because this what you expect from a company it also shows that there's a lot of variable costs involved here which allows the company to shrink a little bit at the same time as well and with that it was still able to score around 22 euros per share the year before the 25 years per share and 2023 30 euros per share so we are in the third year of decline now we know that China had a really weak economy that the consumer is also not too too happy necessarily maybe with European or luxury products but still I would say goodos to the company and and that's why for me this dividend of 13 euro they keep it now flat for three years they can afford that easily there's no no issue there at all so I'm just very happy that I was able to buy a lot of LV image earlier last year when the share price really came down I understand why they're not increasing it I'm happy that they're not declining it but I could expect if they feel that if they feel if they turn it around and it will be trading again at around 25 euro earnings per share and and the future looks better I think we will see double digit hikes very soon again yeah this this management is just very conservative even the CEO last year has been buying a lot of shares personally on the dip so all and all I would say very strong execution actually on the cost side which you want to see in such times and and another example of that is the free cash flow then it's it's slightly up right and and much of this comes from the working capital management which they did much better in this year again so they know they just know how to how to navigate and operate in difficult times it's really simple yeah so I'm quite impressed with the numbers I know that the shares went down that's fine it's it's far from where it was trading last year when I was building up my position but we are we are you know we do this podcast for six years now we know already that for two years luxury goods in this kind of category is doing difficult I would say Hermes is the gold standard they can price their their wooden elephants whatever they want and they still have these five six buyers that pay a fortune for it Louis Vuitton is a little bit more in the upper middle class I would call it until into upper middle class maybe early richness but not in the extreme wealth that's why I see Hermes more yeah yeah yeah it'll be actually quite interesting to see with this trade deal now going on with the EU and India how that will benefit companies like LVMH because I would imagine luxury companies will do particularly well in India from from a European perspective will let's let's see if that that is a catalyst yeah but all in all I'm quite on the optimistic side with it given knowing all the circumstances yeah I feel asleep really well at night with LVMH in my portfolio yeah it's about a 60% pay ratio I think which is annoying with there yeah and of course you know as a student growth investor I would rather have to see like that first I was 13 years last year 14 euro maybe this year 15 euro but we know that this company has he rewards really well in good times and puts on the break in in struggling times that's just the the nature of this company how it's been done by the founder and you quickly see that if you would invest in this stock yeah yeah yeah I look he's been there don't worry he knows he knows what he's doing okay we'll move we'll move away from European luxury and we'll move on to some US luxury and when I say luxury we'll talk about you know it is healthcare in the healthcare system when you look at the top line numbers it looks like they had another strong number so revenue was up double digits year over year by about 12% and both sides of their businesses did show growth on this front so you've got the insurance arm under what they call you know the healthcare care they got the services side which is prescriptions and that kind of stuff so both of them saw growth in the top line and I mean because of European it's sometimes I struggle with this company but I can see why so many people are interested in this in this company they deserve well over 50 million people and that gives them the ability to generate an enormous amount of cash you know we say cash is king when we're looking from a dividend perspective we always look at cash flow over earnings and they they generate so much cash so you can see why different investors flock to this company but if you look past a little bit past the headline that they give you and you look more at some of their key metrics particularly around profitability you can see that their earnings from operations dropped from 8.7 billion to 4.3 billion that's nearly a 50% drop and that get them a net margin of just 2.1% when you dig into that you can see that medical costs are going up so they have this medical care MCR ratio that they call it which was 89.9% and they say this is due to what they call elevated costs plus Medicare funding reductions and they call it party program changes from the inflation reduction act and all three of those sentences that I said they are are probably one of the reasons why I would struggle to invest in a company because you got political risks you got funding risks and you've got elevated costs that they probably can't control people don't like the CEOs of these companies yeah and look you can understand that because as a European we come from we come from where health is for the public good health force and the business second whereas this is business forced people's second so you can you can understand the types of families that are arguing they're extracting profit from them at a time of need that they probably don't even have but then it's it's literally low for debt in some situations so you can understand that that sentiment which is which is why I would struggle with that but yeah it certainly seems like this year that they are certainly paying more evidence claims than that they are receiving in premiums when I say more than they're not paying out more claims than premiums but I'm just saying that the claims are rising higher than what they're bringing in in premiums also in their services business which is called optimum operating profit was on their pressure they are as well and we can see another 44 percent decrease on this and this is driven by continued reimbursement pressure due to the Medicare funding reductions and elevated utilization costs just plenty of reimbursements there that they that they have to go back and again this this is rising all of this probably contributed to a huge share price reduction 17% down this week you also had the Trump administration proposing a flat and a flat increase increase not throughout world but like this reimbursement plan which is about 0.1% usually it is close at the 5% so the content is a lot of top line and makes sure because that sort of forward looking results are probably going to be lower than what was expected I mean you think of a company like this you think of all whether you would imagine that in all market conditions usually the top line is grown because people's health doesn't just stop because there's a pandemic or because there's a banking crisis or anything like that so it's a bit of a shock to the market to see that we're not going to have this strong this this growth anymore that this has been pulled back by Trump which we know he has said he's aggressively going to try and deal so I think that along with the margin pressures have probably contributed to that large share price so yeah look they said they still generate plenty plenty of cash they can still afford a dividends they're not going to go broke anytime soon but there is just a lot of pressures there at the moment and the Trump administration how they are looking at this whole Medicare system as well so there's a lot of political risk my question here right imagine that you feel okay with all of this and you understand the healthcare situation here 15 PE the 3% yields do you can you see why people find this interesting at this price is this value for you or is it value trap I would imagine its value I would imagine its value at this point I mean you get different and I think the political risk here is is quite real but you get a different administration every four years and they bring something different to the table so it's it's hard to gauge if if what Trump brings in will be long-term or maybe someone else will come in on the Democrat side and change that but they're not going to change the business model overnight in America to give free healthcare everyone so they're going to need these services so if you're a management then would you go full on the buybacks now with your extra cash yeah they have 15 P probably I would rather massively hiking dividends I would look at going back shares they they represent some value one thing I did see though on on extra don't usually pay attention to these things but you know you have these Nancy Pelosi trackers but there's there's also a couple of accounts that do all politicians and different politicians and one I saw before this pro-strap was early last week there was a politician that's on some of these boards and sold all these shares and you know it healthcare and then it drops like 10% straight afterwards I don't know I don't know what that what that tells you if if it's long-term or if the expected to keep dropping if you can buy back these shares it does definitely summary that involved but I think as a business look it's still going to generate plenty of cash it still generates lots and lots of premiums they can't control the claims at the moment but you'd imagine that will flat line and maybe return to it's mean over a longer period of time so I would imagine it's a Boeing opportunity if you're interested in this company for me it's the closest thing to a sin stock that I probably wouldn't buy yeah I see what you mean yeah okay cool cool so and you know there's no hospital that that runs without SAP or SAP however we call it yeah and you know everyone has a hate-love relationship that works in a corporate because then you're quickly used to SAP it pays out the salaries the purchase orders and it's like if you if you know this this is movie beauty in the beast we're not talking about the beauty here yeah and I speak also from a personal experience I hate this software it's unbelievable but it doesn't mean it's a bad company total revenue 36.8 billion over last year I just want to remember that remind you that Microsoft made 81 billion in a single quarter yeah so SAP is not even allowed to you know shine the shoes of Microsoft it's not sitting at the same table no exactly it's still an 8% increase or 11% consequences yes they say so that's really good and their cloud and software revenue is 32 and a half billion which was also a 10% increase so not too bad right in terms of revenue and actually the most growth came from EMEA from Europe in the Middle East about 30% increase America's 15% increase so it's really really good cloud revenue is around 26 billion out of this total revenue which actually for me is also really a lot because I started looking at SAP a few years ago and they were just starting the transition to cloud and they were already much later than others but to see them now here is later being at this stage is good host of management that they have been able to pull it off but also here the share price went down and I think it's a simple result of what they call a slightly deceleration of the current cloud backlog yeah so still growing 25% but decelerating yeah I mean come on guys this is what you can expect yeah so this this should really not come I mean this is just how goch all the time 20 plus percent is crazy how can we even get used to it yeah the total cloud backlog is now 77.3 billion up 22% as before so also again these are crazy numbers that's for them probably like three years of backlog add of them yeah that's a lot of profits coming in free cash flow approximately 10 billion so also really good expect cloud revenue to jump by another another jumped about 26% but they also of course expect it again to grow with quite some large numbers I think even they expect where is it I can't see it so quickly anymore my sheet generally speaking they continue to expect these kinds of numbers yeah around 20% growth so this is really a lot and I just want to help you here to then the outlook right 26 billion of cloud revenues 21 to day around 18% operating profit they expect there so we know now that it quickly dropped but then if you if you look at that right they have 9.7 billion in cash on the balance sheet and only 6 billion in debt they paid some down a billion there so this is like no no no debt on the balance sheet you could say yeah no net debt to the 10 billion market cap net income of 10.4 billion 20 21 PE probably having the opportunity if they manage well in terms of working capital and such to to add another 20% in profit next year so that means that it probably goes to an 18 PE forward earnings I mean not too bad I would say and once I don't I'm not here Jim Kramer hitting the buy-by-by button I think the the dividend is also only 1.4% here for SAP but you know I promised our it was a request on Discord to make the stock cards so this weekend I will really go a little bit deeper in the numbers of SAP and want to hours on on all of this and make a dividend stock cards that our premium subscribers can see like how safe the dividend is according to us is it very very safe or just safe I don't see I don't think it will be unsafe at all but also what fair value I will stick to it so yeah yeah yeah very interesting for me and this one stock that I involved in 90 euros one time and then sold at 120 euros thinking like hmm I I don't see them doing this with cloud I've been oh you know that's my issue when you have a love relationship with a stock I really really know they have a vendor lock-in yeah you can't get rid of them you're effectively there companies rather expand with their software than decrease I think the opportunity of AI deployed in SAP ecosystem is massive so think about all manufacturing sites and everything if they can get better insights real-time insights by applying Jenny I even just to ask questions or even to do troubleshooting trying to find out where there is a hiccup in the manufacturing line by looking at the data I mean massive opportunities here to turn this into very much benefits of our companies so it's just like it's such a clunky software right and it's so expensive so that that that is the hate love relationship we have with this company yeah yeah but okay I'm actually quite impressed here because I know I'm speaking to you couple years ago they were quite late to the game and cloud but they they've managed quite well since and in fairness so we have to give them some credit but from what I know about SAP you can't use them systems without smoke and are taking up smoke because you're so stressed you just need something you need a different type of outlet and next time my list is is all three I take a simple oh and it's it's a company I also had a love hate relationship it was one that I kind of thought would do quite well in this I mean when this transition happens to smokeless worlds and new products I thought they would really really be at the forefront the data tons of that they're not and but still still an interesting company so I want to start off by saying what what the CEO said and it's on the first the first lawyers are the first page of their press release it's 2025 was a year of continued momentum for Austria mouth by strong financial performance strategic performance across a smoke free portfolio new relationships in support of our long-term growth goals and significant cash returns to shareholders that's what he said that's what Billy Gifford said okay that's what he said I think you look at the numbers and you go red news are down 2.1 percent we're expecting red news to be down because we know smoking is going down and apparently this is better than what they expected still down 2.1 percent for the quarter 3.1 percent for the year and everybody's happy about this but what I actually thought was a little bit more concerning was that volume dropped by 10 percent whereas the industry average was only 8 percent so it's 2 percent above the industry average are losing their losing volume top it out it looks like Malboro which is that flagship brand of some market share and I think this is a clear indication that consumers are moving more towards maybe cheaper brands maybe not so brand orientated because you know when when the consumer gets hit they still need the smoke but they won't always go with it with it I think smokers will have a really hard time to ever reach a fire state in the end with the current prices of tobacco and if I'm at the airport and see what it's priced at I thought like my gods you will never be financially independent on the middle-class income smoking cigarettes yeah but from what I know from the smokers around me that they will have a brand but then if somebody's like Ireland is quite high if they're traveling to Spain or to France we get this chilly free they'll always ask people and it doesn't matter the brand they they will still smoke them so I think they just need that nicotine hit one of our three is main growth and propositions at the moment is our pricing power and but there's only so much you can keep increasing prices but they would alienate your whole consumers have it's really difficult at the moment we see that in all the consumer reports yeah and and that's exactly what I'm seeing with with this Milbro with with that market share dropping I'm seeing that has to be from consumers that are just struggling will be hard at the moment and going for cheaper alternatives and to be honest I'm not really impressed with the smoke free transition either I mean you look at the slides looks good right they show 10% growth on this on-page but actually the market share overall and that is down 3.4 percentage points to 15.4% so they'll lose a market share so it just means the competitors British American tobacco Filipinas because Altria was struggling they did the dual acquisition right where they screw up with these flavors and everything in the U.S. and the patent with British American tabaccos is British American tabaco really eating Altria's lunch right now I would say Filip Mars is probably more but I think if you're to rank rank him in in order in terms of who's executing that power better Filip Mars is at the top of the pile I think over 50% of their revenues is is common from new products that execute really well British American tabaccos is second and Altria is so much through the floor they're just been horrendous horrendous with that we've seen this with enjoy as well with they've have 1.2 billion worth of impairments on their income statement as well from that so they're just struggling with execution and I go back to what the CEO said like he said new relationships in support of our long-term growth goals what are they they what are these relationships and how are we going to see these these long-term growths I don't really know as a disclaimer I owned the business last year I sold them so via a covered call I just felt I didn't need to two companies in my portfolio from the tobacco and this was just on the performance. Until the CEO will on the next investor they say in front of on CMBC maybe even when he gets into you saying like we need to communicate the value of our products better. Yeah yeah I mean like the one positive you can give to them is they do generate ahead of a lot of cash and they do return that to our shareholders and they're quite explicit in that I mean it's it's quite high-opened our press release it's it's on the first slide of their their investor presentation but I always think when when you go to a presentation and in the first slide they talk about returns to shareholders it generally means there's nothing else happening because usually if those better news they put that news they're forcing you put the returns then slightly underneath. Okay so question to you go first this one also it's a this one also has a 15 PE instead of a 3% yield what United Health Care Head Altria has a 6.8% yield if you had to if I put a gun on your head which would it do? I'd buy you a Knight Helker yeah I'd buy you know like if if I look if I look at this you're looking at bad management in terms of new products compared to everyone else you're looking at the kind of volumes in their their core business it's it's it's struggling they're only kind of held alive with our pricing power and the capital returns but that's not the basis of long-term growth in MOE position whereas I feel like you know it health care can can get back to some growth depending on policies and funding. Yeah so look not I'm not impressed not impressed with with all three I have to say yeah but yeah let's let's move on we have a couple more we might speak about quickly yeah because you know we just took out four we could have talked about 25 but let's do a bit of a lightning round yeah first of all Starbucks yeah really quickly I think did it quite well comparable sales store sales in North America where up 4% 3% in transactions and 1% in tickets which is really good because in the past it was all time price hikes price hikes but now they see volume growth the same in Europe 5% comparable store sales up and it was 3% in transactions and 2% in tickets store count went down in in America with by 200 stores but then international went up by 720 stores so I think this is actually quite good they make much more revenue in America than internationally so maybe they need to get us more addicted in in in the other side of the world as well I was actually positive surprised with the Starbucks results I must say and then also they had an international day and finally finally finally finally I see that they want to do something with the afternoon I mean it's always been annoying to me like I don't like their pastry that they sell yeah at least in European Starbucks right and then the coffee yeah in the afternoon you may want to drink something else yeah and you want to so I think the CEO gets it he really he really talks about coffee houses again and they want to exploit more the afternoon which I think is really really good so they're introducing a few new products a matcha chai beverages and new globally inspired bakery and food items yeah so let's see I really hope that they have if if the CEO is listening don't come with American crap to Europe also don't come with with with with fancy looking stuff that you charge twice as much well at the neighbor at cracks you get it for get it much more homemade because like like like local made is how we like our tastes yeah if you do it be a little bit my as McDonald's either keep it American so that we as European consumers but then take the nice stuff out of the Americans don't give us a sugary shit yeah and maybe have a little bit of localization in it that we recognize like few in the Netherlands give us a proper cheese sandwich a proper one not the American style one yeah tail out to your audience and I know this is quick for but we did get a question a round Starbucks that is probably good time to ask and it's what your thoughts on the plane story about is it a is it a red flag for you or are not so did you hear about the story yeah I mean Starbucks removed the hardcap the 250 000 hardcap from far yeah they want the fact that the CEO to use the private the jet also for private trip yeah when I mix them in there and I believe he didn't and I don't know where he lives now but when he took the job they even created a new location for him at his home and put an assistant there as well right we were making jokes about it at the time I mean it's crazy it remains it reminds me general electric ready just had the airplane flying after the CEOs airplane just in airplane just in case yeah so I don't know if Starbucks is going there I mean from a cost point of view it's it's really not meaningful to the company the question is like what signal are you giving to all the baristas that you call partners everywhere right as a shareholder I couldn't really care as such if this you know if he uses the airplane to do a lot of visits everywhere to motivate employees to get good insight on how the business operating that we see him on the working floor from time to time by all means do it if this is more just to enjoy being up in the air and collect the air miles or Starbucks miles then that's a different story yeah because time is money for CEOs as well right and and these are not the cost that I'm worried about as a shareholder I want this I want this premium brand perception coming back more to consumers I want a handwritten name on my cup again not the low effort sticker yeah I want a handwritten if he can get that back shops will be full badly written with the wrong name doesn't matter doesn't matter it's the personal attention that you give to your customer yeah and even we can we can say put edgy on it edgy we can no there was also the part of it just some funny names yeah yeah not the stickers yeah I have to say same sentiment in regards to the plane in material cost and if it's for boots underground and I'm all far and let's move on we have a couple more Texas instruments revenues came in at 4.4 billion which was down 7% sequentially but up 10% year over year what was interesting was analog revenue grew 14% and it's embedded processing grew 8% so still quite strong results and it's industrial market grew on the high teens which is good but it's data center which I know is only 9% of revenues grew 70% year over year and that's a trend that we probably expect to see from a man's faction expansion perspective the Sherman Fab is ramping ahead of schedule so we should start to see the benefits of that earlier than expected as well as usual they generate 7.2 billion and operate the cash flow we know they are in an elevated capex cycle at the moment so they had free cash flow of only about 2.9 billion they return 6.4 billion to us as shareholders the remainder that has to be made up through or means out of cash on the balance sheet our true depth again nothing really to worry about the share price popped I think after that as well it was up from 195 98 up to around 215 at the moments market responded quite quite good to that as well really happy with that I'm a happy Texas insurance investor and it's been doing really well for me it's the typical stock that I like to buy on the dip yeah exactly exactly I actually thought that they'd dip a little bit longer consider on the capex cycle it's going for another year or two but the market is not being foolish in this one they keep buying interesting to see visa visa was another one strong results I mean we talked about visa and mastercard also post a strong results net revenue grew 15% year of a year up to 10.9 billion really really strong and especially I follow that the payments volume was nearly 4 trillion which is crazy which again is 8% year over year and the value added services revenue grew 28% also involved in some tokenization and they now have 17.5 billion tokens globally and they're looking at some agentic commerce and stable kind expansion so moving into the world of maybe not so much crypto but into the blockchain I would imagine so look they keep continuing to turn out the numbers as we said and I mean we spoke about them six years ago if we bought them six years ago we'd be happy we were looking at and then saying they can't keep growing double digit year over year they've done it for the last six years who say they won't do it for the next six six or seven years but yeah strong strong results and happy for shareholders there and then Apple Apple is the last one that we would look at really interesting record breaking quarter from Apple at this day and revenue of 140 three billion with iPhone revenue reaching an all-time record of 85.3 billion which is remember Microsoft 81 billion in one quarter revenue to this 144 billion in a single quarter in revenue for iPhones and all pants sorry but I mean look it's it's crazy and it wasn't so long ago people were saying Apple was dead again even though the share price was still quite elevated there was talks that they were running downwards but I mean record record revenue says difference to that from a different perspective they were telling 32 billion to share holders 3.9 billion in difference and 25 billion in buybacks so their different shares stands at 26 cent but yeah look good good results from those as well I would say interesting which which ones were your favorites out of all ones today I think SAP more more because it's a European company doing well I would say happy with Starbucks beef tax instruments because I all own them for the rest Apple I own Apple as well I reduce my position by two thirds last year share price didn't do a lot in response since since I was selling so I don't have this feeling of like I've sold to early yet may come later but I've been really upping the yields with the seals of apples and in some stocks that I was really wanting to have for instance what the scleror is now more it's now 3.1% trading today while we are recording here in the in the late afternoon early evening but I want I wanted to ask you are you a world scleror fanboy because I am a little bit and the share price went from 170 euros last year to 80 it's now 78 euro 3.1 dividend yields I started really slowly building up a position I've got the 85 euros average share price so what are your thoughts about such a company because I know you're leaning usually a little bit more to the higher yielding stocks yeah I do lean a little bit more to higher yielding and I'm all your fanboy I appreciate the company I know how well run they are during it as I would say sticky segment as well and they don't usually touch this type of yield so from that perspective they look quite good but as you said I do lean into a little bit more higher yield the market is open to disruption I'm not as confident in that area as as you are I would say so yeah in terms of conviction I wouldn't have a 100% conviction so that's rate at the price where it was in May 2021 so almost five years ago well and that was after back of the pandemic as well yeah yeah it's quite quite good yielding actually I know you've been speaking about it for a long time so I'm happy for you happy for the some people in the group as well are buying because I see discord is water's clear water's clear ADP so it's them and quite happy because these stocks came now into a buy zone for dividend investors and of course it can go much lower and nobody is saying that this is stopped if you look at the price chart it's ugly it's like literally only red days yeah like like I think out of the last year if it had 20 updates it's I would consider that a lot yeah so the share price is ugly it's really an example of a falling knife that just keeps on falling so you know I just want to say to people that you don't need to be stock market hero and buying continuously on this one yeah so that's why I'm dollar cost averaging and and taking it like that but yeah very interesting one yeah good yeah quite interesting and so we move on to some business questions and Ryan has asked us at any particular earnings you guys are looking forward to yes and then group ASR shell I hold though has those are really top on my list also the known actually they had this issue now with this milk powder here and potential toxicity in it and so those are a few what else I'm kind of curious also what uni-leavers doing now if we this CEO being one year in yeah yeah and then legal in general I really see how they are doing legal in general one one that's the same for me is British American tobacco that don't really well in terms of share price now I just want to see how they compare to to first of all all trade they should be better but then compare them against Philip Morrison see see how they're going some interested that obviously insurance I'm quite big on in my portfolio so that will be important and I hold that lazy just to see what comes out of yeah because I expect a lot of currency impacts yeah and I'm also wondering how they are doing with their home brand let's say their private label brand there yeah yeah and their us exposure obviously with the legal consumer I hope that will affect them so and if they ever will spin off bulb bulb dot com yeah let's let's see my tears as those are thoughts on concentration risk so you have Microsoft open Aoi those this weren't I think we spoke about that's not for me basil as those we've seen some oiled price movements and we thought well point yourself you know it helped do you think that the scale of passive investing and algorithmic trading has fundamentally changed our markets operate yes I do believe that I believe at the moment there will be a liquidity issue or fear in the market driven by fear of loss of job for instance right and people start pulling their money out of index funds because they want to save it I think we will we will get a much harder decline in terms of Microsoft in unit united health I think these are still encapsulated price drops to some extent maybe a little bit if you would have a SaaS index that was a bit more selling there yeah but for me it shows just the market the market has been going up and up and up and up and up for the last few years right so I think this has maybe reached this stage where people don't take it anymore yeah yeah yeah yeah I think a lot of gold prices doing that that must be a signal that there's stuff going on that the market is nervous will go with marities everything seems to be all-time highs and what was interesting I saw something online about Microsoft and they are largest degree daily decreases over the last 30 years and 12 percent was near the bottom of those incredible decreases it's it's not huge in terms of history exo Alasastos once you have selected a stock guidelines you have for building up opposition does it vary by portfolio tier watch out your criteria for assigning a stock to different tiers so generally speaking let's say this referring to me having four tiers for diversification and so what are my criteria for assigning a stock to different tiers so for me for instance in the tier one that is those are my foundational stocks those should be like generally speaking right having very strong balance sheet very strong earnings power for me those are like they should be top in their game within their sector let's say so that's one that's why you see Microsoft in there as an example and not PayPal yeah and then that's how you then go lower yeah it's more like filling it up in my case 10 stocks per tier let's say now when it comes to building up a position a tier one simply takes longer because it's not exactly how it's not exactly the volumes I work with because I want to keep it a little bit private let's say if you can invest a thousand euro a month if a tier four would be I don't know four thousand for the simplicity you can buy four times and then I dollar cost average to take voltage clearer forks for an example I bought around eighty eight and then I wait or eighty nine then I wait for the 10 percent drop at eighty eighty one I bought something again there was a month difference in between so I also don't want to buy a few times in the same week so yeah that's how you need to look at it it's more dollar cost averaging and then if something would be like I don't know tier one would be 20k you just need 20 months to build it up yeah there so it's not like I can build up a position fast because I'm cash constrained yeah I'm fully invested so I just need to wait until my dividends come in so I can reinvest and that my salary comes in and so they can reinvest yeah my sense yeah yeah Sansa evil skin disaster have you ever done the sums are the maths and about the pros and cons of choosing an investing platform he currently uses hl and however the free structure is changing which has led him to look around for options he trusts how greaves as a reputable established business and they do have good customer support but he's wondering if they're cheaper options elsewhere yeah well cheap doesn't exist cheap is usually something you get read from yeah as such but I do think there are maybe potential better price value for me interactive brokers has a really good price to value ratio you know that I'm move I move there my American stocks because of the real estate the heritage tax estate tax but for my European shares I really like them at interactive brokers so I would definitely look at interactive brokers for this one I think it's also quite popular in the community the UI sucks so give yourself a week of time pickification and try to to learn the user interface it's different than that what you're used to but other than that the fee structures really good and you know you can read their balance sheet they're there they're annual reports and you will see that this is a well-finished yeah I will has asked us about our preferred business models do you have any preference and are there any no-go investments for you as so it from banks so prefer business models are high margin business models with it I said close to monopoly but not not close enough to make the watchdog or the government chase you yeah yeah those are usually like like like a market where there are two three strong players strong products but also a customer lock-in yeah and those both I like and I think Microsoft is a good example yeah Microsoft is a good example I like typically asset low economies in high margins return plenty of cash to us and like you said has a strong competitive advantage doesn't have to be monopoly yet certainly have have some sort of advantage over its peers are a hoi barrier to entry into their into their segment yeah and usually I like that the business model is supported by secular growth trend so for instance I was looking at fiscal fund and what I really appreciate in the business model is that you know the population continues to grow middle-class continues to grow in the next few years they are one of the only producers of casings of all the kinds of casings so you have that and and there needs to be and while the middle-class growth more protein intake will be needed so I mean you come to really wrong on such a catalyst right no it will be really weird to grow such a business slower than the the population growth in the middle-class growth will be really weird so but decline will be very very weird yeah yeah exactly how you agree then has asked us about DCC what do you think about them the cash flows is this important dividend the earnings have been dropping quite a bit I think we're gonna have to go I have this on my backlog to research since they spun off the health health care and everything I I the numbers are too polluted at least the last time that I checked to really get a good grasp on how the new business is operating so I guess I need to still wait a few months and really look into it so so sorry then it's a bit hard for me to answer I would assume the dividend is still safe based on the same numbers that you are seeing but yeah I don't know if I still it's like with theatres selling at the time did you know it's business yeah and then also yeah what what is left yeah so I I I need to look into this properly again and team is asked us have you ever tried an experiment of pulling your portfolio on percentage weights into aoy and asking it to profile you as an investor I have major major trust issues doing that with with aoy I've told you before I'm one of the episodes I was after putting it into aoy and it was giving me companies that I did not even own maybe it's progress in stand but would you break my trust it's hard to get a package yeah so I've never done it I couldn't care less yeah yeah sorry for this answer but I maybe it maybe I should play around a little bit with it but yeah but from what I know of Tim that describes him very well I would say yeah you know what the issue for me sometimes with AI is it's trained on let's say the world's knowledge so it takes the average out of that but I don't think I'm the average investor you understand what I mean yeah yeah yeah I get it I get it so I mean if you want average go to use use use AI if you want to be the at least if you have the ambition to be the best special reach your own stuff and get your own opinion yeah Trevor is asked do you have any high quality non-dividend pain stocks on your watch list or in your portfolio no I tell you why I struggle with this because I invest monthly and if I was to not invest in dividend stocks eat in particular month or two months if I was to spread it out I'd feel like I'm just losing income that's yeah exactly that's how I feel I'm still too early in my journey I think I think if I have a more mature portfolio and close to financial freedom maybe I might start looking but right now it's it's more income based yes I really wanted to start looking a little bit at Salesforce for instance for you know I always put a few few percentage in growth and I'm curious about Salesforce I haven't really looked into it but yeah I want to look into it it Jeremy has asked with the new EU India trade deal what companies do you think will benefit the most and quickest I mentioned Louis Vuitton earlier I think they'll do well and maybe some auto I think there's some reduction in tariffs on auto maybe as well so maybe per se days or something like that I really don't have a good view on it I just wonder you know China's the manufacturing hub of the world India has been the services hub of the world good India also for instance allow some European companies to continue having low cost manufacturing but eliminate the geopolitical risk that China brings to the portfolio so I'm more thinking from a cost structure point of view not so much as from a market point of view because I think most companies are trying already the Indian markets here where possible yeah that's a nice take 18 be out tonight one of my favorite names question for you both do you have a stock you hold where the negative sentiment price action makes it hard to keep holding despite your conviction and if the financials are not deteriorating do you prefer to average down even if it's a full position I don't have that I don't have it that it's hard to keep holding Princess HP Q HP ink yeah the laptop producer it's at 19 dollars right now I'm gonna average price probably of 25 dollars so it's a six or seven PE and then I think like well the financials are still good enough the dividend is safe why is everyone putting it in dumpster that's the question that I have like what am I not seeing am I considering selling not at all is the full position yes am I considering buying more I would love to but I'm not yeah I really need to stick to my roles yeah evolution gaming might fit this narrative as well where negative sentiment prices deteriorating but financials are okay look for me it depends on the company evolution gaming is one of my portfolio I don't think anyone has fits the bill maybe UK wind maybe for their small positions and so on that's that's it imagine if I would have a concentrate the portfolio five stocks I would be sweating as hell with evolution gaming not not when you have 50 stocks yeah exactly exactly dividend controller has asked have you ever calculated your average holding time no no but when I do my spring cleaning I'm sometimes surprised about how much fluctuation I still have in my portfolio yeah me too I think I made a goal was that last year the year before to stop selling as much so I was aware I was over trading in my portfolio let me say stock junky ASMR holding are taken profits with these multiples that's fives on that I have one share and I'm holding yeah these types of questions it's hard because it depends on on on your goal if you're looking at it from total return price and trying to get the most money out of it maybe selling it is quite much a profit if you're looking at it from what we are which is dividend investors it just raised a dividend by 17% so why would I sell them so depends on and where you're coming from they see how do you see the earnings of SAP which you went through and now and oh yeah so I think that service now I haven't looked at service now in SAP I think we discussed so I really don't have anything to add there yeah do you see AOE is really treated them I was thinking about that question absolutely not I think SAP poor that's actually the bull case I would say yeah AOE AOE yeah I want to just make sure if you think that with some vibe coding you can trade your own SAP instance for a fortune 500 company please guys maybe in 10 years from now but but no no no no no your whole salary payment purchase order system based on vibe coding by students no no no no no I would not not I mean no no no you don't want to do that to your business if I ever hear a CEO saying AI we're going to replace SAP we have a bunch of students like Gen Z very handy with this stuff they use loveable for some vibe coding I would sell my shares straight away straight away I think that's the thing I mean you know how poor the code sometimes you get out of there and if you can't read code you're you're really putting a really lots of risk on yourself there yeah exactly exactly and and for a massive massive company that's it that's a no no that's a no no and Gianna Zastos about our concerns on the euro dollar do you automatically reinvest in the same stock or do you have a list of stocks to reinvest in first so I have a few that have automatic drip on but that's rather an exception I would like to do more if possible but generally speaking I just collect the dividends and let's say if it's up to thousand I'll reinvest them again actually even I just look at the balance on my account I just invest how much I can invest yeah yeah I have a tone down and interact with brokers for UK and for US stocks can't do it in European and I just let it let it right Elkuba has said what are your thoughts about proctor and gamble results didn't actually look at him and what are the news what are the new CEO do you think he should follow more in the Fernando Fernandez from Unileva and invest heavily in premium brands and sell the non-core business I think proctor and gamble went already like several years ago through this whole margin expansion and everything with the same invested that is now in Unileva so I think proctor and gamble is just struggling with every consumer staple struggling with flattening earnings weaker consumer after years of price inflation where but the wallet is not increasing enough of the consumers so proctor and gamble is just experiencing everything the same as everyone else yeah the issue is actually that these are premium brands yeah because the gap became sometimes much higher and some areas not everywhere with the with the private label brands yes so that's the problem and Unileva has this problem already a little bit longer here because there was also just less appetite for their brands I think proctor and gamble was executing better and that's why they have the CEO now yeah yeah it's quite it's quite difficult for these companies should it should be copy in other CEO probably not but I think it's a pressure they have to do they have to try and increase the volume growth sales growth without over discounting and trying to protect our margins I mean they're already like a global large scale brand I mean there aren't so many brands so you're right yet they just have the same problem that every consumer state but will go through in time so it's a it's a tough one for that for that CEO especially in this time I think it's a tough yeah tough and very tough at the moment very tough and the last question maybe outsource all their manufacturing to India but then they first need to read domicile to to Europe yeah proctor and gamble Robert has asked us about the Netherlands tax that we spoke about last week he's got a few positions there with over a hundred percent gain what what he talks what what would you do in that situation if you were in the Netherlands which are not and you had these companies do you think that it would do you think investors know from the Netherlands will sell these companies and move into different kind of asset classes damn man you're opening a topic and it's the last question of the show you you have half now do you have the beer popped yes so I mean this we spoke about last week but this just sucks I mean how can you build wealth if your tax 36% on your unrealized gains your wealth increases let's say with 100k you need to give in 36k okay there is like a tax free limit first but I mean I don't know I don't know Robert I think at a certain moment it just becomes a question do you want to stay in the country just the fundamental question like we have to think about this even even as a non Netherlands resident I'm invested in three or four those companies and I look at this and I think if I was if I was a person living in in the Netherlands and this tax is culminating you were sitting there with big gains that I know I want to be tax done there's no incentive for me to keep that if everyone thought like I did and and saw the positions the most I want to deal to the share price of our of our companies it's it's going to drop so I think we know the yields it it only creates a better buying opportunity for us are to then businesses yeah but then the foreign investors are the ones laughing because they get to buy the according to your analogy we get to buy a lot cheaper that the yields we get to buy it much cheaper yeah so we'll attract more foreign investment yeah it's it's such a tricky one Robert we can't we can't tell you on what you should do but I mean what I would say is that it's I mean I know how you feel we have this tax for ETFs in Ireland we we are tax on redoes gains and it's the reason why I don't I don't do it I'm afraid that this bill's over to other countries because we already piggyback on the middle class and and also take the savings away right to to fulfill their climate ambitions ambitions and such and to to fill the gaps in the annual butchettes yes so it could be a test but then the test could be that if what if they've won't just says up beforehand and they don't have any they don't they make less money because people are not a trading watcher yeah but if you if you sell that means you you you turn it into a realized gain and and put the money on your bank account it's still a wealth because it's a wealth tax yes so it's really like it's just for me this is like the middle ages where a king was living a too rich lifestyle and then asked the knights to to just harvest more from the farmers and the farmers had nothing left to eat that's how I look at this yeah yeah yeah it's it's crazy it's crazy let's let's see that didn't take a half now no no but now I wanted to end up on a nice note this podcast and I'm bloody frustrated thank you robots thank you for sharing your frustration with me I I need to cool down for all for an hour now and I'm not even having this text on me I live in a country where it's much more better organized with this we even get like it's I think called eco or okay in in in half a year probably which is more the Swedish model so that that that's really something I'm looking forward to really you know well let's finish on a nice note then it is the weekend we've recorded this earlier so you have the friday night yourself you can relax you can have a beer you can think about anything else over the dodge tag system you can you can enjoy yourself I think it's time to support LVMH a little bit today with a spirit yes yes I shall I shall join you with that shall join you okay look that is all for today's podcast we got through lots of earnings for a little bit more detail and then we went through three or four more which is quite interesting we'll still have more earnings to discuss which is always fun so thank you thank you for all your questions and hopefully we will see you all back here next week

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The podcast discusses a busy earnings season with significant stock price drops for major tech companies like Microsoft and SAP, despite strong financial results, highlighting market sensitivity to high valuations.
  2. Numerous dividend increases are highlighted across various companies, including Deutsche Bank (47%), Microsoft (17%), and others, emphasizing the appeal of dividend growth investing.
  3. Analysis of specific companies like LVMH shows mixed results, with revenue declines in some segments but effective cost management, while others like Signify face challenges despite maintaining dividend policies.

Summary:

In this episode of the Dividend Talk podcast, the hosts review a dynamic earnings season marked by substantial dividend hikes and notable stock price declines, particularly in the technology sector. Companies like Microsoft and SAP experienced double-digit drops despite reporting strong quarterly growth, attributed to high market expectations and rich valuations. The discussion covers multiple dividend increases, including significant raises from Deutsche Bank (47%) and Microsoft (17%), alongside more modest hikes from firms like Chevron and LVMH.

The hosts analyze specific earnings reports, noting LVMH's revenue dip in fashion and leather goods offset by cost reductions, and express caution around companies like Signify, which raised its dividend minimally amid operational struggles. They emphasize that dividend growth investing remains engaging, offering insights into global business trends and economic factors, while reiterating that their commentary is not financial advice but based on personal investment experiences and observations.

FAQs

The Dividend Talk podcast focuses on dividend growth investing, discussing earnings, dividend hikes, and analyzing companies from Europe and the United States.

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Microsoft's stock dropped due to high valuation concerns and dependency on OpenAI for future orders, despite reporting 15% revenue growth and 21% net income growth.

Deutsche Bank increased its dividend by 47%, Microsoft by 17%, and Charles Schwab by 19%, among others like SAP and Chevron.

Signify raised its dividend by 1% despite declining performance, offering an 8% yield, but the hosts view it as risky due to the company's struggles.

LVMH reduced debt by 26% and increased operating free cash flow by 8%, but revenue declined by 5%, mainly due to a downturn in fashion and leather goods.

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