Episode 43: What's the Catch? Tariff Impact on Global Seafood

[Music] Ludent agriculture is the largest and most critical industry on earth, feeding the world's growing population while navigating constant change and mounting challenges requires strategic knowledge, as well as a passion that is singular to global food and agriculture professionals. In this podcast, we'll be covering latest action, developments and trends across the industry. This is Agri Food for Thought. [Music] Hello and welcome. I'm your host, Jamie Chadwick. Thanks for tuning in. If there's one thing that we have learned over the past few years, it's that global food supply chains can change very quickly. And when they do, the effects are felt all the way from producers to processors, all the way to retailers and food service operators, and of course, ultimately consumers. And one of the biggest forces shaping those changes right now is tariffs. Now, tariffs have notably been in the news since 2025, but we do have some new developments on that front, impacting the entire food and agriculture value chain. And we're going to dive into that during this show. As always, nothing we say in this podcast constitutes advice for the Foldess Claimer. Please see the link in the show notes. Now, tariffs can influence where products are sourced, how they're priced, how companies can manage risk, and even what's available on grocery shelves and on restaurant menus. Now, at Expana, you know, we're tracking 23 commodity categories, thousands of products, right, across the entire food and ag space. But today, we're going to talk about one, and it's a big one. Today, we're going to talk about seafood. Now, seafood sits right at the center of global food trade conversation. It is one of the world's most globally traded food categories. And it's often one of the first industries to really feel that impact when these trade policies shift. And that's why today's conversation is so important. And we're joined by an expert in global seafood trade to really break down the latest hair of developments. You know, what that impact could look like, what businesses should be watching as these policies continue to evolve. Because whether you're catching it or farming it, whether you're importing it, processing it, buying it, selling it, or featuring it on your menu, understanding these trade dynamics is becoming increasingly important in terms of doing business successfully here. So let's dive in. And yes, that pun was absolutely intended. And I know my guest will appreciate it. Joining me today is senior editor at Expana Ryan Doyle. Ryan, welcome. Hey, Jamie. You're definitely happy to hear the seafood puns are alive and kicking here at Expana. Thanks for having me. Always. We love a good pun here at Expana. Many in the industry are familiar with one of Expana's longstanding brands. Of course, seafoodnews.com. Ryan is the senior editor for seafood news here at Expana and of course delivers even more news coverage on Expana's platform for our subscribers. I've had the pleasure of working with you, Ryan, for many years now. And Ryan, I just have to say you put in a tremendous dedication to delivering news coverage across the seafood space. Which, by the way, is massive. I mean, the seafood market, it's so diverse. There's so many species, so many product forms, regions, seasonalities. It is an absolute monster of a market to follow. And you really do incredible work to make sense of it all. Yeah, thanks, Jamie. And you see, food news has, you know, backed with it over 30 years of coverage. One of the oldest and most established trade publications. And when Expana integrated it and acquired it, the idea was to kind of combine that deep editorial history and those industry relationships that they've seen for news built over all the years with Expana's data infrastructure and global commodity market coverage, as you mentioned, those 23 categories. And in practice, that kind of means our readers get both the news, what's happening and fishing, farming communities across the globe. And then we're going to talk about tariffs as we're going to talk about today. And then also that market context to understand what it means for prices, supply chains, trade flows. And like you said, on a daily basis, I'm tracking developments all over the world. And we keep you very busy here at Expana and we really appreciate all that you do. I mean, you've covered a ton of events over the years throughout the industry. What would have been some of the biggest events in the seafood space that you've covered in the last few years? I think off the top of my head, we go back to Russia, Ukraine during the 2020 right ahead of 2020. And then you had the COVID situation as well, Jamie. You have significant weather impacts as well. I mean, the list goes on and on. And we're talking global. We're talking things in India, Chile, Canada, United States. The list goes on and on. And at the moment tariffs is taken the cake. That is the number one priority across the seafood industry. Absolutely. I mean, especially for the seafood industry, like you said, it's very global. I mean, in the United States, we import roughly what? Right. 90% of the seafood we consume in this country. Yeah, it's hot. So any of these sort of geopolitical events that arise in the trade policies that we're seeing right now have the potential to have significant impact on trade and on markets. So let's kind of get into it. We've had some new developments on the Terra front since in July of 2026. Run us through what some of these changes are. And you know, because the tariffs, the new tariff structure announced this month. It's not simply a continuation of, you know, the earlier reciprocal tariffs that we saw announced in 2025. Those got struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead, the administration here is relying on section 301, right? Yes, correct. So that's the big news. Like I said, a lot of development so far in July. July 24th is a big date. That's when the section 301 forced labor tariffs were implemented. And they were imposed under a completely different legal authority than the previous tariffs the Trump administration would be using. And that distinctions key because the Supreme Court struck down those earlier tariffs. So then administration pivoted to section 301, which has more established legal track record and the goal for me administration is to make these stick. The rates on those new tariffs range from 10 to 12.5%, depending on the country. And the trigger is essentially whether a country has a law against forced labor on the US fines appropriate. Countries that have passed that kind of law or are committed to doing so, landed the 10% rate. And everyone else landed the 12.5% rate. And just quick for seafood specifically, we'll dive into this much deeper. This reshapes kind of the competitive landscape. You have Ecuador and India 10%. Vietnam and China 12.5%, along with Norway and Chile at 12.5%. But you also have Canada, Mexico, who are at 0% because their seafood is largely US MCA compliant. So there's a lot of moving parts we're going to have to dive into. I think it's a great time for us to discuss this because it's brand new. It's only a few days old. Right. And like you said, there's so many layers. But effectively, you know, section 301, it gives the US trade representatives office a lot more authority to investigate whether another country's policies are unfairly burdening US commerce. In this case, like you said, it's investigations into whether trading partners were failing to adequately prohibit or enforce bands on goods made with forced labor. This is what the outcome is. And again, these tariffs tend to be a lot more durable than the ones made under IEPA. They rest on specific congressional statutes that have been used for decades. It's what we saw with China back in 2018. Many of those tariffs remain in place today. So, you know, this, this is a more formal administration administrative process. And it makes these tariffs a lot less vulnerable to the same legal challenge that invalidated. The IEPA tariffs. So what's interesting here for seafood is that seafood was named specifically as a target here. Was it not what's the story there? Back in February of the USTR did highlight seafood as well as rice specifically. And the reasoning connects to a few things on the Department of Labor's own list of goods produced with forced labor includes several seafood categories. So that's number one. But on top of that, you had domestic industry pressure from Shrimpers, groundfish harvesters arguing that imported seafood produced under substandard labor conditions in their eyes created unfair competitive advantage. Other side of the seafood industry did argue back. So there is a bit of a push and pull there back that the right response would be enforcement and labor standards not just these blanket tariffs on imports. That argument didn't win the USTR was clear. The goal wasn't to create domestic production, but it was to pressure pressure countries to change their laws. Now, in terms of exemptions, there, there's a few exemptions here, right? Yes. And that's, we need to really be precise about this because even talking with our market reporting team covering the seafood, there's, there's a lot to dive into here. On the country side exemptions, I mentioned this a little bit earlier, Canada and Mexico are the major ones. USM, MCA, compliant goods from both of those countries are going to have zero additional duties. So you see Canadian snow. crab, lobster, salmon and ground fish, all terra-free. You also have a few other significant producers, but not at the top tier of the list here. Iceland, Farah Islands, and Greenland weren't included in the investigation at all, so their products will face none of those section 301 duties. On the product side, nothing was exempt. USTR received over 1,600 comments and heard over from 100 witnesses and seafood got no product level exemptions. Beef made the list, coffee made the list, certain fertilizer ingredients made the list, but seafood, which made the same exact argument as beef made, was denied. So that's a significant, significant blow and a significant, significant decision from the USTR and the administration. Absolutely. And we saw sort of the tariffs on Canada and Brazil, which also was breaking last week. And we did see a lot of seafood products exempt from those Canadian tariffs also under USMCA, but there was a lot under USMCA that wasn't going to apply anymore because of some of that tarot structure there too. So there's a lot of layers and a lot of loopholes, but like you said, I mean the difference with beef and seafood, I mean that's got to, that's got to sting a little bit for the industry. 110% and you brought up Brazil and I do want to clarify, I'm a few things regarding this section 301 that was a bit eye opening for me as I was diving into it this week. Brazil did receive exemptions under a separate 301 investigation. So there's another 301 investigation that's Brazil that focuses on digital trade, anti-corruption, deforestation and that levied to 25% tariffs on certain products. That's a big win for Brazil's Talapia and Rock Lobster. However, Brazil was listed in the 301 forced labor investigations at 12.5%. So their seafood is still going to face that 12.5% tariff. I think it's a good moment also Jamie to point out that there's other section 31 investigations involving China specifically as an independent one. Vietnam has their own as well and an upcoming excess capacity section through your own investigation that will cover a lot more countries like the forced labor one did that could lead to additional tariffs and higher rates for certain countries. So in a few weeks we could be having another conversation diving into this. There's layer after layer after layer and kind of breaking this all down is really important for the industry and the importers. It's extremely complex and I really appreciate that explanation because it does get very messy. Some of these so really appreciate you offering clarity on that and for our listeners here. So when we're looking at the tariffs, the most recent structure, who are our biggest trade partners in which of these countries or products are really expected to be the most impacted by the latest round of section 301 tariffs. Yeah, I've mentioned Canada a few times but they're the largest single seafood supplier to the US. They dominate and snow crab lobster, salmon as well and they're effectively insulated. So that's a huge advantage for them on the tariff front. On the shrimp side, we're dominated by Ecuador and India. Ecuador's been running about 30% ahead of 2025 levels year to day to the import side while India's seen a downturn, roughly 24% through May, which is our latest data. And Ecuador has surpassed India since 2025 and that kind of shifts back to Trump's initial tariffs. But it seems to be that's going to continue to be underway. But at the end of the day for shrimp in general, you think of the major suppliers, Ecuador, India, Vietnam, Indonesia. This is the first time they're essentially on a level playing field from a landed cost standpoint with these new rates. So there's going to be some winners, some losers there, but the expectation is you know, more of the same on the import side. Then we dive into salmon. Obviously, another major seafood species. Chile and Norway are the two most exposed and they're two biggest suppliers. Chile is over 40% of the salmon we bring into the US and Norway is right behind them. And they're the premium fresh filet supplier, which is a key distinction. Both of them, like I said, say that 12 and a half percent while some of their smaller competitors, but I mean, important competitors, Pharaohs and Iceland are at zero. So there's a structural disadvantage there, but I don't see major shifts. It seems like that's going to be months and years rather than days for anything to shift there. You also have whitefish, Norway and China, both at 12 and a half percent. Iceland had caught it zero. So that could mean a little bit of a structural win for Alaska, wild Alaska Pollock up north. Yeah, Ryan, you mentioned Norway a few times. Norway is really a fascinating case, right? They're a close US ally. They have a sustainable track record for both aquaculture and fisheries. How does the industry feel about this? The reaction from Norway is primarily frustration so far. And that's been the case since terrorists were kind of first implemented even last year. Seafood Norway, one of their major industry groups has been very vocal that the assessment's unreasonable. But the industry is pivoting. China overtook the US as Norway's second largest export market in the first half of 2026, but their volume up significantly, I think roughly 50% of memory serves. And recent stats from the Norwegian Seafood Council for the first half of the year, US imports were down 28% year on year before July 24th. And the CEO said, "You have to go back a few years 2022 to find a lower export value in the market." So there's, there's like you said, they have a strong track record, but the impact is certainly real. So who backfills that gap? It seems to be Chile. They're, I'll talk with Ecuador in a few moments, a little bit closer to the US. Norway's known as a premium product. But it could be, you know, Faroe Islands could step in here. Iceland with a 0% rate. I just believe Norway has a lot of that infrastructure already and the strong well-known name across retail and food service here in the US. So we'll see what the significant move is and Canada's also a factor as well. So yeah, that's, it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out here in the near term. Right. And Ryan, we've talked about, you know, there's going to be some winners, there's going to be some losers. Ecuador, like you mentioned, keeps coming up as sort of the quote-unquote winner in shrimp. Anyway, what's driving that beyond the tear of differential? I do think we have to go back to 2025 when it's rise really coincided with the earlier rounds of tariffs that hit India hard. I believe there are around 50% if not higher when you threw in anti-dumping or counter-baling duties too. And when those duties made India shriet more expensive, Ecuador stepped in really, really aggressively. It passed India, like I mentioned back in December 2025. And I believe, if memory serves, it serves that it's shipped over or more shrimp than India in all but one month so far this year. The section through our one rates that just took effect put them at the same level. So it doesn't really widen the gap further, but it does lock in Ecuador's position and kind of keeps Vietnam and China and other sources at a disadvantage at 12.5%. But to answer your question, really, beyond tariffs, Ecuador as the right conditions, they have geographic proximity, extreme, exchange rate advantages, and just a strategic shift towards larger count premium product. And they are working to expand their process and capacity. They're not there yet talking with some of our experts on Helen Jim on the shrimp side, but they're making inroads on that front. So Ryan, for food manufacturers or restaurant chains that rely on imported seafood, what are they thinking in this moment? And what could we see as a response to managing some of these changes throughout these supply chains? I think a lot of its cost management and conversations you probably don't want to be having. There's a few, I called them levers when I was thinking about this question, Jamie, that they can pull. The first is going to be like absorption, eating the cost to protect the menu prices. seafood, as you know, is kind of seen as a premium product out there. But how sustainable is that if these tariffs are long term? You could see some reformulation, substituting species or origins. I think of a QSR running a seafood promotion the next time around, it might shift to a different species if it saves them a few bucks here and there. But those substitutions aren't immediate. You have specs, you have to meet, you have supply relationships, you have to meet and labeling. So that's another option they can take. And finally, I think it's just price pass through. We've already seen some of this in shrimp. I saw some NFI data recently that showed frozen shrimp prices up 18% year over year in May and pounds sales fell 11%. So I want to say demand destruction, but that kind of indicates that. But I think the number one place is the uncertainty. The IEPA tariffs, which were struck down in February, they're not as durable as section 301. We already saw already on expana. Today, legal challenges are already here for section 301. But we're not sure where that's going to land anytime soon and if you're working on six to 12 months, supply contracts, the tariff environment could look drastically different in a few months. The uncertainty is really key for those in the industry. Yeah, and certainly on the demand side of the picture, this is all happening at a time where food inflation is up at food service specifically. And right now, of course, we're in the middle of summer. It's peak travel season, which is typically peak food service season. We don't have the data yet on restaurant traffic and what it's done in the wake of higher gas prices. And typically, you know, we always used to assume that when gas prices were up discretionary spending on food and dining and entertainment would go down, we've seen a surprising amount of consumer resilience in the last few years, I think since, you know, really 2020 when we know we had that sort of revenge spending from consumers. They have demonstrated a lot more resilience than I think we ever thought possible, but we don't really know what that picture looks like this summer in terms of spending at dining. But seafood, like you said, it's sort of a premium product, especially in the fine dining space. So it's going to be a very interesting situation to monitor and understand exactly what the impacts will be because we really just don't know what those impacts to the extent that they're going to be. Right. Yeah, I think at this point, you have a lot of it's just understanding the situation, trying to get your head wrapped around what terrafrates are where, you know, what are my suppliers? What does this mean for our products? But a lot of that stuff's going to be going to come through as we near the fall already. Absolutely. And we know you will be staying on top of every single one of these not so happy task here at expana. So Ryan, outside of terrace, which of course, take up a lot of your time. But what are some other things in the seafood industry that you're monitoring outside the terrace? What are the top three things on your mind right now? First is going to be the Marine Bamble Protection Act. It's kind of one of the most consequential non-terriff stories on the global seafood trade right now. The Philippines and Venezuela kind of come top of mind to me. They engaged in this process, but failed requirements, which means they're not allowed to import on product from certain fisheries that don't mean meat, the Marine Bamble Protection Act standards. So that means 9 to 12 percent of the U.S. crab meat was lost overnight. Venezuela, I believe, there are another 10 percent also lost overnight. You had Vietnam and Indonesia and Sri Lanka. Also, major crab meat producers got back in because they met these comparability findings. They're called. But overnight, 20 percent of the blue crab supply was essentially just gone. So that's a major factor that's been kind of top of mind for us for a few months now. I think we all focused on El Nino recently. Seafood obviously is going to be impacted. You might think wild fisheries, but aquaculture as well. I think looking back 10 years ago, roughly, the West Coast fisheries lost over 141 million in disaster losses. Dungeonous crabs, salmon, things of that nature. And also, you have the Noah budget cuts in the background of that, which could eliminate monitoring programs that could help track it and potentially reduce impacts. So you have that there that we're going to be keeping an eye on. And I think this was an interesting one from the consumer perspective, but I also think those in the industry should keep a close eye on it. Sushi. Americans are eating a ton of sushi. Back in January at the Global Sea Food Market Conference, sushi was like the clear winner. Going through all the food service and retail stats that were shared there, people love sushi. Poke also followed the same playbook. And the question to me is what comes next? I think seafood snacking could be an under-export market right now. Seafood jerky chips, protein sticks, things of that nature. So I'm kind of interested to see how seafood kind of takes the next step, see if they can corner a little bit of a market here. I'm a seafood guy. I'm through it through now after being in the industry for so long. So those are kind of the top three things I'm looking at right now. Aside from tariff, which are far and away. Yeah, so in other words, no shortage of moving parts here to monitor that could potentially have impacts. And of course, I did an episode a few weeks ago on the protein demand in the US and across the globe, really. And seafood obviously can claim a part of that. And I think you might be right in terms of seafood snacking. And sushi has become so ubiquitous and really popular among you know, millennials and subsequent generations. So it's really exciting to see what's happening there. But Ryan, like you said, so many things to stay on top of in the industry right now that are market impactful. I want to end on a really good note here. Tell me your favorite thing about covering news here in the seafood markets. It's obviously a little bit stressful, but there's this. Yeah, no, it certainly is. You're definitely, and every morning takes you a different place. And I think that's the best part about it. There aren't many beats that I've covered that take you from geopolitics to food culture to economics all in the same morning. The range of stories on our editorial calendar just for this week and next week alone is remarkable. And to me, it's like one of the true global proteins. You can get seafood from any part of the world. And it's probably pretty darn good too. And I also like to think what happens in Norway and Ecuador or a vessel down the road from me and New Jersey and Kate May or Barnagot Light to show up on a menu that I eat at or grocery store down the road for me. So that connection between the global supply chain and the dinner plate is interesting to me. Oh, it absolutely is. Well, Ryan, thank you so much for taking the time to be here with us today. Great information to all of our listeners. As you know, the situation remains extremely fluid and we're staying on top of updates every day on expana. Trust Ryan and his team to deliver those updates and those insights on the daily. So stay tuned for more. Again, thank you Ryan and thank you to all of our listeners for tuning in today.