Episode 369 - Spanberger’s Virginia: Can the Moderate Line Hold?

Hi everyone, it's Howard Schweitzer. We're back for another edition of the Beltway and Beyond or the Beltway Briefing. And this week I'll be joined by my colleagues from Richmond, Virginia, Julia Hammond and Heidi Hertz who are in the thick of things with the legislative session in Virginia. Virginia is a good proxy or bell weather for where things are nationally and what it means when chambers flip from red to blue or governorships flip from red to blue in the case of Virginia. So we'll get into where things are politically and policy wise in the state and extrapolate out to the federal, the bigger national picture. And I hope you enjoy the discussion. Thanks for joining us and we'll be back next week. We stand today. A date which will live in infamy. I have a dream. Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall. Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country. All right, we are back for another edition of the Beltway Briefing or Beltway and Beyond. I think we are going to at least start to start to call this podcast, this long running highly popular podcast that the whole country tunes into. But this week it's Howard Schweitzer and I'm joined by Julia Hammond and Heidi Hertz both from our Richmond Virginia office and Richmond or the state of Virginia is in the middle of its very intense annual legislative session with a new governor and a newly sworn in legislature. And Julian Heidi, it sounds like quite a bit on the docket. Aggressive legislating going on. And I think we talked about in the fall, we talked about Virginia being a good bellweather for where the country is or was politically. And so let's look at at least in a state that's gone, that's gone blue, blue, blue, what we're seeing and what that means from a policy perspective and a political perspective. Heidi, let's start with you. What are you seeing? It's been pretty exciting. So the General Assembly gavilled in on January 14th and then three days later our first female governor Abigail Spanberger was sworn in. Her inauguration was January 17th. She's the 75th governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia and really brought in a lot of excitement. We have seen just record number of Democrats in the House of delegates. We've got a majority in the Senate. We now have a Democrat in the executive mansion. And so the feeling is that there's a lot that's going to get done that hasn't gotten done in the at least the last two years when we had Democrats in the majority of the General Assembly, but a Republican as governor. So we're we're pretty excited. They've hit the ground running today with a really exciting day. Governor Spanberger signed the legislation setting the voter referendum for the for proposed constitutional amendments on marriage equality, reproductive rights, privacy, voting rights restoration and the very hot topic of the temporary redistricting amendment. So just a few two and a half weeks into her administration, already some big things have been happening. Julia and I should say I should have said at the top, you are both veterans of prior administrations in the state. Heidi on the Democratic side and Julia on the Republican side. So Heidi, this is your time and it is not Julia's time, but Julia, tell us how you're looking at it. Well, I mean, we are very excited about Governor Spanberger. She has filled her cabinet and many of her executive positions, agency heads, deputy secretaries, etc. with Virginians that we've worked with before, people with a lot of great experience. That was a complaint of the previous administration that while the individuals might be subject matter experts and say commerce or education, they weren't Virginia subject matter experts. And that is not what's happening with this administration. Some people have been brought back from previous governors under McCollough and Northam and some are new to state government or new to this governor's role, but certainly not to the Commonwealth of Virginia. And so for all Virginians, I think that's a big positive. We are, we like to be as unique as possible as a Commonwealth. Our session starts is the first out of the gate. It's the fastest and shortest. We like to set precedent. So it is very helpful for these short one four year term for us to have people who have experienced within state government. That being said, for those who may be inclined to vote more red than blue, all of the change and discussions that we heard on the campaign trail, both in the governor's race, but also the presidential, are you're seeing happen here in Virginia. So on day one, the governor had signed several different executive orders, but as one would imagine with ICE and immigration being a big hot topic, she has found a way to unwind or to mandate the unwinding of a lot of agreements between state police and federal immigration enforcement. There's legislation going through to do the same for local ones. The redistricting issue that Heidi brought up is huge. It'll probably make some pretty big news across the country over the next 24 to 48 hours because in addition to the resolution, which is currently tied up in court, yesterday the Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate revealed their new maps to take us from six, five, D to R, to 10, one, D to R. And so we're looking at some districts that span from Fairfax County out to the Shenandoah Valley and not a lot in between, I think, Fairfax County alone would wind up with representation, five different congressional districts. So there is a lot of response to federal issues that we heard about on the campaign trail and now we're actually seeing an action in Virginia. So yeah, for some, it feels a little abrupt. And how's it playing? Do you have a sense of are people paying attention or voters actually paying attention to what's happening in Richmond? No. I mean, the basis of either I think are ignited. There's so much noise in Virginia's proximity to DC in particular makes that difficult because it's not like President Trump or his administration seems to take like a half day ever, right? So you have all of that noise going on and then now what's happening here. I do think there are some individual issues that are making their way through. Obviously, the, we'll call it the Democratic ticket. They ran on affordability, which was a great sounding point. There are affordability challenges, but then we have a legislator in the General Assembly who introduced a new sales tax on services. And that's a long list of services. So I think people are starting to pay attention to individual issues like that. Like how can we be more affordable if we have all these tax increases, etc. But now, I mean, I guess we make our sausage so fast here in Virginia. It's really hard for anybody to kind of latch on and move. Not to say we won't hear quite a bit of it or really the governor will hear a lot once all of these ideas, good and bad make their way to her desk. When the governor really ran from sort of that middle sort of that left center position and a lot of the bills that are currently in the General Assembly are much further left than that. And so really the case will have to be made as to whether or not the General Assembly themselves do what the speaker of the house said very early on he wanted to do, which was show restraint. Like do this incremental, do it measured, not send every good idea that we've had over the last four years that got vetoed by Governor Youngkin, send those to Governor Spanberger's desk. But right now we haven't seen that quite as much as maybe we expected. Now, granted, we're still a solid week and a half from maybe a little bit longer from crossover. So there's a lot of sausage as Julia was saying that needs to be made. And I expect that she's going to be looking to leaders in the House and the Senate to take a little bit of that off of her plate or give her a small step forward rather than the whole thing at one time. So we haven't yet seen what that's going to look like because right now it's those big ticket items that Democrats have been really excited about for years now and figuring out which of those are going to actually make it to the General Assembly to hers is what's up next. So on a scale of one to 10 Heidi 10 being most progressive and one being least progressive. At the end of the day, where do you expect broadly speaking the work of the legislature and the governor here in the first couple of months in your session, where do you say it lands? The legislature is going to push her left. I mean, they're going to push her to be more progressive because a lot of that with the additional seats that came into the General Assembly, a lot of those are sort of the more left side, more progressive candidates. And so I think they're going to constantly be maybe pushing her and she's going to maybe be looking for a little bit more. bit more of it and on ramp to it. So I think she's going to try to play it more conservative than the general assembly and hope that they'll take care of some of the things for her so she won't have to do it. So if you know if one puts the progressive as sort of center, I think she'd like to be at like a three, but I think the general assembly is going to push her to be more like a six. And how does that ultimately, how does that ultimately manifest itself nationally so to speak? I mean, I know it doesn't literally, but I feel like we elections have consequences. We go through these cycles, we push in a certain direction and inevitably then the pendulum swings back and we go back in the in the other direction. Do we just continue that? Is this, I mean, is Virginia, obviously you've just come off a Republican governor? So theoretically, Republicans, I mean, absolutely Republicans can can still win in Virginia. Julia, you're shaking your head maybe. I mean, not, not with those congressional maps they can, but yes, I agree with you. I think it depends on how she balances that sweet spot between the three and six that Heidi mentioned, right? Like yes, we turned blue or blue, but it was for a lot of reasons. Some of them weren't even her or things that the Virginia General Assembly can handle. We see the bigger swings in Virginia when we go from bright blue to bright red and back again. If we can see our sweet spot is definitely more purple and not just politically just success. We are being the best state and the nation for business and for employees. We kind of had that sweet spot in our Bob McDonnell Terry McAuliffe years, right? And that was a far more purple space that we lived in. And I do think the team that the governor has assembled will because they have worked here for so long. They know and remember what it feels like to be in that sweet spot. And to the extent that she has aspirations beyond this job, which I think we always assume governors do even though she's been on the job for two and a half weeks, dictates that like we have to build upon this success. People might not like that or obviously voters didn't want to continue with a Republican governor in Virginia, but it doesn't mean they didn't want to continue being a great state for business. It doesn't mean that they didn't want to continue having low taxes, good quality services, balanced budget in a timely manner, right? They didn't vote that off the island. And so to the extent, I think that she's able to work with the general assembly to get us there, then we can show a path for success that doesn't have to constantly be switching every couple of years. I mean, as a resident of a neighboring state, the great state of Maryland, you know, it's always been noteworthy how much friendly or Virginia is, not just to business, but from a tax point of view, from even things like like vehicle taxes and registration fees and just some of the basic nuts and bolts. It's always been, I think it's just been a much more attractive place to live and work and raise a family. Yeah, now that's our catchphrase. No, I mean it and it's you know, I'm very happy living where I live, but not from a tax and business point of view, Maryland really comes up short, very short when it comes to attracting businesses relative to relative to Virginia, just look at the Dallas corridor. Yep. I mean, it's crazy what's out there. And to give that away is nuts. I would agree with you on that. And I do think those, especially those legislators that have been here for a while, right? And they've started to develop a knowledge outside of just their region or maybe just their sort of their background they had when they were running for office, have gotten that. And that's why I think you to see such differences in the way legislation is handled between the House and the Senate. The Senate wasn't up this last cycle. They won't be up for another two years. They have four-year terms so they can look at things a little differently than some of the House members. House members have a tendency to run on kind of the more of the moment issues where the senators have their longer terms and then 10 year to run from. So I think there's a lot of that. But for the Virginia business community, they haven't had to be hyper-engaged on stuff. Even, I mean, the last four years, obviously there was a backstop or many saw the backstop. But some of the things that we're hearing and feeling and facing in this four years, unlike with the governor Northum four years when they had control of Democrats control the House and the Senate, it feels like you have to be far more engaged. It sometimes feels like saying that you're a business owner is a bad word because there's so much more focus on what the general assembly thinks employees need and not employers. And like, there's employers can do and give so much more. And sometimes forget to realize that the owner is also an employee in a company. And you see that sort of divide now that we didn't have the last time we had bright blue at all levels. Heidi, where's it coming from? I mean, is this a reaction to Washington? Some of it is. You talked about the collaboration between law enforcement and federal law enforcement. Fine, like, the ice issue is out there. And the Republicans, I mean, the administration is definitely losing the battle for public opinion when it comes to that. But setting issues like that aside, I mean, we talk all the time about politics being nationalized. Is this what's causing the leftward shift? I think DC definitely plays a big role because of the proximity. But also, if you think about it, you know, today with the the maps to redraw the 11 congressional districts, well, we got that idea from a from up north. So we're doing what others said that they wanted to do. And we have the votes to do it. And so being able to to get that over the finish line. But I also think the leadership in the general assembly, the speaker Don Scott and the Senate, pro-Tam, Senator Louise Lucas, who's also the Senate finance chair, they are incredibly like smart when it comes to accomplishing the goals that they have. And they will fight for what they think they they need to for their constituents for Virginians. And they feel like they've been waiting a really long time. And so the two of them now have come with their agenda. Sometimes showing restraint other times just really getting done what they feel like they need to get done. And they're doing it. And I think I was in the governor's office the last time that there was a trifecta. And they saw what happened when it went away. And so there's a little more pressure this first year to get things done and to get some of their goals accomplished that they feel like time is running out. Julia and I had a minute yesterday to actually talk with the first gentleman who already has a countdown clock for how many days that they have left in office. And I think it's something upwards of 1400 days. So you know, just to think that they're taking no day for granted. They see this agenda that they want to get accomplished. They currently have the majority. And they feel like they have the right people both in the general assembly and in the governor's cabinet and agency heads. If not now when and taking advantage of that right now. The speaker has said, I don't know, a couple of occasions that you're the goal for him, especially with the new members, especially for the seeds that flipped was getting those folks back. And so potentially going after some of the big ticket items for the general assembly in year one is strategic to then put a little space between that. But yeah, they've hit the ground running and it's been it's been fast and furious. Lots of great ideas or maybe just lots of ideas as Julia would say. But yeah, they haven't they haven't slowed it all and it's really pedal to the metal for the next 40 or so days. Well, but I guess I'm questioning the the promise because I mean, is it just about trying to legislate your priorities over or is it about the long term? And I think net net the country, the state, the country doesn't want per they don't want hyper right stuff and they don't want hyper left stuff. They want they want moderation people generally want moderation. And so I just I don't see how it's in anyone's long term self interest to be legislating or governing on the extreme. I just I don't know, maybe that's just a reflection of the way I think about the world. I agree. But I think we'll be a good test case for that. And we're just a few weeks into the general assembly. So everything is heightened right now to Julia's point where first and where fastest. So we'll see what at the end of this, what actually what comes out. They're starting from a place of very aggressive policy, but we're already seeing bills get more focused or carve out happening or ideas turned into studies and workgroups like we're already seeing some of that happen where they had to shoot the shot, but they're seen as it moves through the process that it changes a little bit. And again, there's the governor that they're really I think in many ways trying to protect her from having that for year be a lot of all the pressure on her either get things done or stop some of the bad policies from from continuing. Well, and I think to Virginia has I guess it depends on which side you're on the good or bad, but we have to pass a balanced budget every year, right? And we do have some parameters around it and many of the individuals, the staff members at both the general assembly and in the governor's office who worry about our finances have been there for a very long time. So they've seen all of these moves and they work diligently to show whether it's the members of the general assembly is they're working through their budget process now and then later the governor's team like here's all of your here's your wish list here's what it's going to cost and here's roughly how much you can actually get done. And so working with them to sort of prioritize and figure out they've always been we joke that you know sometimes staff for the money committees on the house side they're the 101st delegates, but it's true and having that long-term knowledge I do think helps rain in some of the big bright ideas that might just be far too costly for the common mouth. The other thing that I that we have now and it's going to take a little longer for the messaging to get out is we have many legislators who are putting in ideas that they've gotten from other states right other blue states have done and I'm just I'm thinking of one because they were using the numbers the other day having the paid insurance leave pools kind of like unemployment insurance but it's paid leave and they're like it's great and it sounds awesome everybody would get some kind of paid leave but then they're able to look at these other states that have done it these bluer states that have done it and they realize solvency is a problem and it's a great idea it sounds wonderful but as they try to figure out how to make Virginia like Washington or Rhode Island they realize maybe we're not really built that way. Well you know I think that solvency is a good objective. Right and we'll see I think it'd be great to have YouTube back on when when when the when the session is final and and we have a sense of where things settled out it's it's interesting just that Virginia is such a proxy for I think looking at things more nationally and with the midterms coming up and things you know very much up for grabs here it'll be interesting to watch and see where it comes out. Well thank you both we'll keep it short today and let you get back to dealing with your two months or two and a half month legislative session and julien Heidi thanks for coming on we'll be back with another episode of beltway and beyond soon and good luck the rest of the way with your session. Thank you. Thanks for coming on. Thank you so much for joining us for this week's edition of the beltway and beyond. If you enjoyed the conversation the best way to support the podcast is to leave a review on Apple podcast spotify or wherever you listen to your podcasts. 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