Hey guys and welcome to episode 24 of "Shootin' the Bull Pod" with Drowzi and Bear. As always, you can hit us up on Twitter at investing_bear or @DrowziInvester. You can also reach us via email at shootingthebullpod
[email protected]. We've got a great show for you. We have a return guest, someone who's put up just absolute numbers over the last few years, someone who's being the market by hundreds of percentage and has a knack for finding the next great thing. He is the creator of growth investing mastery channel on YouTube and welcome back to the pod WPR. Hey, thanks for having me. Excited to be here. We've got so much to talk about, but in true shooting the bull fashion, I have a story for you guys. So guess what kind of market we're in. You tell us. One of these days you're going to come up out of left field and like, let me guess your cousin told you about a stock and I'm going to be how the hell did you know? Zero day trading on Calci. That's the market we're in. Maybe we should open that as like a market generator. What will Drowzi say next? So, best bottom line had a boatload of NVIDIA unloaded it recently at kind of at all time highs and bought a house. Really great for him. I could not be more happy for him and he listens to the show. So he knows exactly who he is and now to call him out a bit. So he comes to me and he tells me you heard of this company. They do power. I was like, I don't know what that means. Unspecified power, a great power competition. Are they in electricity? Like what's going on? He tells me the ticker is VRB. And naturally, I'm like, I don't know them. Maybe it's a J-Rose small infrastructure play. I really don't know. So he's telling me all about how they're all about power. And he, you know, threw several thousand dollars towards them and what the hell? Not only did he not get the ticker right, but he was talking about VRB, the RT. And I would argue they're in the electricity industry in Deity Center build out. And Dr. J-Rose talked about them, but I don't think they do power. What I'm quote, so again, to go along with my story of last week of an A&D investor who put lots of money towards this computer company. Now we have a power company to go with it. What did the guy last week say he was in A&D or A&D? $5,000 towards the computer company A&D. So I think investors are chasing a bit here and are maybe going outside their comfort zone to try to find that next great thing. No, what you got to get this symbol right, that's important. Yeah. Turns out that matters. Yes. So, so back to the topic at hand today. So WPR tell our audience a bit about kind of your service, about how you manage a portfolio, maybe a bit about your recent success. So over to you? Oh yeah, sure. Yeah, my background actually got started in a custodial account back in the late 90s when I was just a teenager. My dad helped me get set up there. And then I was, you know, on Motley Fool and investors business daily for a while, like reading investing books. I just kind of, you know, for a lot of years, it's just kind of working on my own strategy, making bits and pieces from other people I could find. My formal background is actually in computer science, study at University of Michigan. But then I played poker professionally. And that actually kind of shapes a lot of my like philosophy, I guess, you know, of, I guess I'm understanding the risk of reward with a given stock, you know, if it's a good value or good growth potential. And then yeah, I found Sal's board in 2020. That was kind of like a leveling up for me in terms of, you know, Sal had a pretty similar style to me, I guess, of, you know, finding a growth name, which has a lot of potential. Learned a lot there and it kind of felt like my strategy became more comprehensive and around 2023. And that's why I started posting my own content quite a bit more. So I was originally just posting on Sal's board for a few years there. Then expanded to YouTube with my channel growth investing mastery, gearing up to create a membership there later in the coming months. And then also on Twitter as I guess my handles GI mastery there with growth investing mastery. And then Baron, I kicked off this Reddit recently and senior, senior around there in Jersey. So yeah, that's going pretty well. You know, more people are coming online there and interesting to see how that develops. Yeah, I've been enjoying, you know, trying to get that Reddit going. I have another place to talk stocks and enjoying running that with you. I'm kind of my two best investing buds here today. This is great. But as you're talking about, you know, Sal's board and that transition and poker, especially, I do think I remember Saul talking all the time about how, you know, if you like games, you'll like investing. And you know, and really he was talking about stockpicking. He's talking about like, you know, he used to, you know, he's a math guy and then, you know, he went a different way with his career. But he, he's always enjoyed games. But you have pointed out, I think something that's all, all is to point out is that it's not like poker or many other games. It's not zero sum. And I've enjoyed, I think that's a good thing for people to remember, especially, you know, we're talking about, you know, not using options or levers, just regular old and, you know, buying shares, it can be a win-win. So just random stuff. I was thinking about as you were talking. Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, to win in poker, right, you have to take from somebody else and there's a casino rake as well. So you're kind of like swimming uphill in the sense on that. But, you know, with long stock investing, it's a, what you call positive sum game or not a zero sum game. So you're not taking from somebody to win in growth investing. It's not true for all forms of investing with options. There's always like a counterparty or somebody who is a loser. So more generally, you can say like the long stock investing is a positive sum game, but not all forms of investing are that way. Right. But yeah, I think like my approach is heavily kind of based off like some poker stuff. Like there's this theory called game theory optimal in poker, which kind of changed poker around 2015 where these solvers they are called. They use this really balanced strategy to make an unexploitable strategy in poker. And I've kind of thought about what that would mean, bring coming over to investing. And one of the ways I think I was talking about, you know, how my strategy is balanced or optimal is it's the balance of being diversified, right? Having a having enough name so that you're not just relying on one company doing well, but then also the concentration side, which we've talked about there, fair amount where, you know, if you want to select well and you want to get paid off kind of for selecting well. So it's kind of that balance there, you know. And so yeah, I think poker is kind of shaped how I think about investing quite a lot. Yeah, that's, I mean, another pitch for the Reddit. You can, if anybody's listening and get a link in my Twitter profile, but, but yeah, we've talked a lot about portfolio structure. And I really think that the way you do it is sort of like me at my best and Saul, you know, but there's a lot of overlap there between, you know, exactly what you said with not being, not letting stocks just run forever until it's 80% of your portfolio, but also not cutting them off at the knees when they're, when they get to 5%, you know, like having some kind of like get some payoff for your time with reasonably large positions, but then don't, you know, don't let it get out of hand and you have a portfolio that's not balanced because then you're not really getting the value of the picture making other than that one position that's run or two positions that have run. So I really like the sort of, it's a balance kind of thing. But one of the, we can talk about portfolio structure and concentration and all that, all you want. We can certainly nudge drowzy a little bit about large positions, but we really would like to hear and have our listeners hear a little bit about, you know, you've just found so many stocks. I'm always complimenting you on this to your face and behind your back about how you've just really done a great job of, it's hard. You know, I'm a rice to do a little bit better about this second, like 2016, 2017 when I was first cutting my teeth, it's all, but like, you know, it takes time and it's, it's, you know, I was never as good as screeners as you are. So like finding stocks that way. So like, what are some things that you look for? What are some, how are you finding all these promising stocks? Yeah, a lot of my strategy centers around the earnings season, right? So each company is reporting a set of new numbers and there's, you know, tons of companies which have, you know, just discovered explosive growth in their business. There's also tons of companies where there's a disappointment too. So, you know, basically trying to be in the most promising growth names at any given time and that kind of earnings season resets sort of the whole, the whole plate, I guess you could say. So, you know, it might have a top conviction position that disappoints and that frees up some cash and then there's some new names that I found through a screener or elsewhere that look interesting. But one thing I think about is like, the universe of stocks, like isn't that big really? There's like maybe 4,000 NASDAQ stocks and 4,000 Dow stocks. If you throw in, you know, some like international, like OTC stuff, it's maybe 10,000 names and if you put that set down to like the names that are growing over 40%, it's a couple hundred, right? And then the names that are growing over 40% and are profitable may be between like, you know, like 100 or 200 names. So, kind of, you know, like what I'll do is I'll look through financials through a screener.
and basically like market cap and how much revenue these companies have. I always like to search on the numbers first because like in the past, I would get hyped up on an narrative about a company. I'm like, oh, that's an amazing product. I spend like, you know, two hours diving in and then realize, oh crap, they have like, like so much debt or something. Or there was like, you know, like finding a blocker later. So that's why I look at financials first. I want to make sure there's no blocker like, you know, like I like to see like, you know, high growth in the revenue, the top line, ideally high growth in the bottom line, but the top line is more important, typically that sales are growing as opposed to like optimizing for profit. But then like gross margins are pretty interesting, I guess metric, which shows the profitability of the product itself and that can be useful. I will look at the balance sheet, like I mentioned, you know, if they have a ton of cash or a ton of debt that might be a factor. But then yeah, I think the big like difference that I do is, you know, printing out the earnings transcript, I actually like to do like pen and paper, like old school stuff. And I find that kind of, that makes me kind of review it a little more closely. I just have a lot of trouble just like scrolling on the screen. You know, it's probably from browsing the phone too much. It's just like, you just used to scrolling and not reading too carefully. So I don't know when there's posts. So I'm very familiar with that. - Yeah, so basically, I mean, yeah, I'll read through that transcript, you know, and if I'm excited about the name, you know, then I'll look some more too. Like sometimes, you know, halfway through I'm reading the transcript and I'm like, oh man, this is like incredible, you know, like whatever. - And this is, and just, I think I've heard your answer this before, but just sort of like to refresh me and for our listeners, like, how do you feel like you can get up to speed? Does it, do you think oftentimes you can do that based on just the most recent quarters transcript? Or do you have to go back through other materials? Or what exactly? 'Cause I feel like sometimes, well, let me just leave it open ended and you tell us how it usually works. - Yeah, well, I'll look back at the last year's financials and then I'll look up some like basic aspects about the company. I call it sometimes like a smoke test or something to see where the headquarters is. You know, how many employees they have get a kind of general sense of the business. I'm sometimes, you know, you'll find a red flag right away, like the headquarters is in Bermuda and they're like Chinese company or something, like the sounds kind of American company or normal or something. Sometimes the company has like, you know, 20,000 employees, you're like, oh, wow, but they have, you know, 100 million of revenue or something or you might find out they have like 10 employees and it's too small or something. - I'll tell you one thing, I'm getting a little spoiled because you usually have done so much work with the companies that you mentioned and made sure that there are no obvious blockers. But when people used to bring stocks to Saul's board in the past, it was almost, I almost immediately would find a blocker and I feel like that's horrible. - No, we did that. - That's the second check. - That's the first thing, right? Is like if you can find a blocker, you just saved yourself hours, right? You just saved yourself the whole trouble of, you know, getting, and you cross something on the list that, you know, you can always revisit at some point, but for now, it doesn't meet your criteria. So that's, I think that's pretty huge and you mentioned a couple things, massive amounts of debt or maybe you could find something that was just a really clear indicator that, you know, this quarter was a one time thing, you know, that kind of like, they grew 50% quarter over quarter, but it wasn't, but then it was gonna go right back down next quarter, something like that. So. - Oh yeah, yeah, it sucks when you find a blocker after you get, you know, spend a few hours like-- - After you, after you've just saved. - After you've just saved. - I remember one time it was about arm holdings on Sal's board had this like nice clean right up and the first reply, maybe like an hour later, was, are you fine that SoftBank owns 90% of this company and it was like, oops, I'm actually not fine. (laughing) Like I sold them back the same day. I think they were up like 5% that day, so it was nice to like take a tiny win. But sometimes the other, that happens a lot where, you know, I mean, not a lot I guess, but I'll read that first earnings transcript and everything seems like great. Financial seemed great, but then, you know, you find out something later whether that's going through like the 10K or something like that. Usually like to make sure there's no blockers, usually, like if I'm gonna make a video about a company, I'll usually look at the past two earnings transcripts, like maybe a tech conference, like a from an investment bank, and the 10K just to like cover all my bases. I actually don't need all that work to start a position. I'm okay to take like a 0.5% position, and I always say this phrase like while I learn more. So it's not like, oh, like I'm in this company, 100% for sure and like I'm all in now or something. It's always kind of this process of like, you know, learning more, maybe I get some new information to get some feedback from investors. And I guess that's like sort of the point of the Reddit is, you know, if I write something up, then people can respond. And I can see kind of one if people are excited about this name that kind of indicates them on the right track. But then other times there's like a lot of critiques as well. And that's helpful too. You know, if a critique causes me to sell, that's like super useful information. I think, you know, a lot of people get, I guess, defensive about their names, you know, like that they own. But you know, if somebody brings up a good bear case, like, you know, that actually helps me in a way to find something, you know. Yeah. Go ahead, Josie. So my, I think you started to hit on this, but I want to really dive in further on this. Well, first off, falling into narrative traps is like my, my past. So totally agree with folks who say on the numbers first and letting that drive where you go with your research next, rather than, oh my God, this is a 3D printer. How cool is this? Or oh my God, this is a handheld, whatever MRI device that it's going to go bananas or any other narrative that's easy to fall in. So love that advice. My question and one thing that I've always wondered with your style and you were starting to hit on this a bit is how do you build up that conviction? You're in a screener kind of portfolio or you find names be a screener or kind of your network of tips and some of these are in random industries that maybe you haven't looked into as deeply yet. You do the 10K, you do the kind of quick research, you take the position, but how do you get that conviction in some of these names that are harder to understand, optics is not easy to understand, advanced computing, is not easy to understand. So I'm curious how you build that conviction. Yeah, definitely. Yeah, one thing is to kind of like live through an earnings season with a company, you know. I guess I'll use Silicon Motion because that name is kind of top of mind. You know, I had like a 4% or 5% position. I wish I had a bit more going into the earnings, but you know, the earnings was like way above my expectations. To be fair to you, I think you had found it within like a month before earnings. So I mean, a 4.5, that's a pretty good, you know, that's not bad. Yeah, I mean, obviously like, you know, the timing is relevant, right? If you're a year too early on a name before the growth, you know, it's not a good place to be like, you know, parked in a stock that's like flat for a year, right? So I think that's kind of important to recognize like this company's accelerating like right now. And they're like, I'm always kind of looking for these hints in the transcript of like, are they saying anything about the next quarter? Especially when I do my earnings prep, or you know, sometimes we'll say like, oh, you know, April was a strong month or something. It's like, okay, that's really nice or something, you know. Yeah. And for folks listening to this is ticker SIMO, SiliconMotion, something Baron, I have talked a bit about, but frankly, our first inclination of it came from WPR. So before I interrupted you, you were saying, when you lived through an earnings, it kind of, you got to sort of get some confirmation, I guess, about your, what you were expecting. Yeah, exactly. Just kind of realize I'm on the right track there. And you know, SiliconMotion, like maybe, you know, six months ago, I've been saying we're, you know, have these tier one customers. And they would never say who they are, but it turns out, you know, they're Nvidia and Google. And you know, they would say, oh, it's like, we're working with a tier one search leader that makes TPUs or something. You're like, hmm, who could that be? I wonder. So they, but, you know, confidentiality is like, a big thing in their industry, right? So nobody wants to have their tech stack exposed for the hardware side to have somebody come in, come in and copy their architecture. Well, us, we're in one of these things. They said something like, they named the product. They were like, oh, we've got this tier one customer that has this thing called NVLink. And it's like, oh, look at that. Oh, yeah, yeah, they go way out of their way. I'm with Schmidt Bidia. Yeah. Yeah, like they have to, in their 10K, they actually have to list like customers that are over 10% and they haven't on the very last page. Like, so I know exactly where to find it. There's scroll, scroll the very end. I guess they figured like, nobody reads the last page of a 10K. But yeah, one thing you made me think about too is like when you're asking about like industry, you know, like some people, I think they work backwards so they say, okay, I want to get into photonics, like who makes photonics? And I used to kind of be that style investor, or maybe in like the 2010s, I'd be like, okay, social media is a big thing. Like, you know, I'm an invest in Facebook or meta now, or Google LinkedIn or something. I think that's pretty common that people, you know, we'll find a big idea and then be like, you know, who's in this industry, who's growing. But I think my approach is a little different that it's open to any industry, you know, so I might be in like a Celsius energy drink or like a hymns and hers, which is kind of like, you know, a lot of people might look at that name and just be like, that's not a serious business. You know, I want to be in semiconductors or, you know, something serious, you know.
So, you know, sometimes I'll have like a lot of oddball stocks in my portfolio from time to time that it's like, I know they're not going to be a big interest to like the majority of the audience in some ways. Just because they're unknown names, you know? You know, I think a lot of people want to be in the name that like, they can tell other people they're in and like, people think they're smart or something. I don't know. Like, you know, like, you don't want to be like in some like unknown name and then lose a ton and then it looks like kind of dumb, you know? Well, when you, I do feel like the investor circles that all of us traffic and do tend to get hyped up about, you know, one or two names at a time, you know, like, I think Nebius has been one this year that has garnered so much attention. We've seen, I've seen so many people with, you know, 30, 40 percent, Nebius position. Because they've grown, you know, and these types of investors, slightly different, I think, from you and me, you know, from all three of us. You know, they'll just sort of lash onto that and then sort of talk themselves into why they made the right decision. And they'll get excited. Like, like, Dr. Alcy said, or like you were just saying, they'll want to tell their friends about it. And they'll be like, hey, I got Nebius and they'll have their cost basis. I've had a lot of people since we started the red and asked me about my cost basis. And I'm like, who cares? You know, like, what's the price today, you know, and what do I want my position to be today? So, but anyway, I, Drosi, what else do we need to ask about portfolio stuff and finding stocks? I feel like we could, we could go on on this, all day. And I like to talk about screeners or we could get into, you know, the numbers, you know, more specifics about the numbers. But, um, where do we want to go with this? And because I know we have some other things we want to chat about too. Why don't we, um, why don't we transition a bit to tell us a little bit more about your portfolio on which names and a little bit of, um, a little bit more depth so that the audience can understand which names we're talking about kind of and putting, will we just spoke about it, how we manage portfolio kind of in real world context? Yeah, I'm feel free to talk about like, you know, the history of each position. If you're going to talk positions, you don't have to just give the names you can say, well, I know I was actually calling you out probably on our last episode about how you were one of the first to buy app, love and, you know, before it went nuclear. So, oh nice. Yeah. Um, yeah, my portfolio is kind of AI heavy right now. I guess, um, maybe about 60% or, you know, related to AI build out in one way or another. Um, I have a few names, you know, ester labs in credo or two of my top ones, the AI networking companies. Um, they're just growing really fast and just a remarkable pace of innovation there. I think I like, you know, a little overvalued recently, but, you know, beaten down past few things. Yeah, yeah. What do you, what do you think of, I think is a good trend there, not transition, a good segue for a quick. What do you think of the pullbacks? So we're taping this on Tuesday, not Tuesday on Thursday, July 16th after the market closes. We just live through quite the AI trade reversal, several names that a lot of us own, including ester labs and credo to some extent are down lots of percentage. Um, it seems they're rotating back into some safer mag seven type plays, but obviously we've been writing this train kind of along with you. You've been the conductor of it. So I'm curious your thoughts. Nice. Yeah. Yeah. No, I've been in Estera, maybe like six months since the IPO or something back when it was a $40 stock. But, yeah, I think their prospects are better than ever pretty much. Um, you know, they're in, they were also saying for a long time, we have these design wins at the hyper scalers and, you know, we're at every hyper scaler. And it's kind of like, okay, well, let's see the numbers and what programs you're in. So it turns out there in the, you know, training for Amazon and then the M.I. 500 for AMD, which is pretty much like two. The best programs it could be in. But yeah, I think this stock got like, you know, overcooked a little bit on, on valuation and ran up so fast so quick. Um, we, I think it's actually kind of healthy for the market to have some days where like dumps off like this because, you know, um, people, there was a lot of talk about a bubble or I guess there still is even, but, you know, it's, it's better that it's not just like going up at a 45 degree angle for months on end. Um, you know, so it doesn't need to cool off of it, like, you know, in some ways, but I think it's, I think it's good overall. And I think what's happening right now is like companies are reporting great numbers, but then the market gets skeptical of like, oh, you know, somebody has a new technology. Uh, and then it just, you know, gets like slammed. Um, I think we're going to see like a lot more of that as, you know, like there's new technology introduced. But I guess something to keep in mind too is like with these companies like, like, Rome wasn't built in a day. You know, it's like they're, they have plans to scale up to 2029, you know, but investors are looking on this like super short like week or month timeline. Like, oh, is photonics going to be the thing or is, is copper dead is, oh wait, photonics might have, you know, like some supply shortage or memories, the new hot thing. It's kind of challenging market actually where like stocks aren't moving based on results or moving based on like, I guess narrative, which is a bit unusual. Like normally you see like, you know, in a flat market, you see a company reports a good result. It goes up. It's like easier to play. Like this is like, now it's like stock goes up 300%. They report a great result. The stock goes down like 20% after it was like, quote unquote, braced in or something. It's like, okay. Like, it makes it much harder to know what to do in some ways. So true. I feel like, you know, sometimes when stocks are just going up every single day, it does make it hard to know like, what is the market trading on? So what you said it quite well that, you know, sometimes it's just news or headlines or, you know, some, some fake out. I think I don't, I don't want to interrupt too much, but I do want to eventually get into talk about neo clouds and how, you know, a headline like meta's recent headline where they're going to explore. They didn't even have a real news. They just said we're going to think about selling some of our compute, you know, so they didn't even have a contract like the recent space X contracts or anything. So, so definitely those kind of things are are moving stocks and well, I think we each maybe react to that differently. I'm very, I do, I do probably pay more attention to valuation than others. But I do agree with you that you got to look at the long term and the short term, I think is my interpretation or the way that I would put it. The short term may be crazy volatile. And, but the long term is eventually what's going to matter. And so you may make it some opportunities to. And like piling into the hot industry like in this market is gun, like, you know, really poor results. If you look at photonics, let's say, oh, photonics is up 300% and you're like, I'm going to get in now, you know, and it's like straight down. Like same thing with memory, right? And similar similar story with space stocks similar story with neo clouds, where the markets like super hyped up on neo clouds for like a couple of months. And then it's like, okay, maybe the business model doesn't work or something, you know. We certainly hand up. We have been negative neo clouds despite me buying into it because I had FOMO and bears. Scowl as I told him that I was long nebius only to trim recently. But yeah, we've kind of been negative on neo cloud business for a long time, even as we've underperformed the rest of the neo cloud investors. Well, yeah, actually, I've kind of sourd a bit on the neo clouds recently. I just, you know, I guess recently I feel like their business model is not as proven as something like silicon motion or stair labs where it's like, you know, they're already profitable, right? And for these neo clouds, like I was just looking at core, even it's like they have two billion of revenue, but they lost 700 million in income, right? So they're scaling up in their, you know, reinvesting everything into catbacks like like it's a race or something. And like, you know, the neo clouds a new idea in a way. Kind of like it's like they're trying to be like a hyper scale or scaling up really fast, but, you know, I just think the business model isn't as proven as like some other industries. But yeah, one thing to keep in mind with the neo clouds, too, I think is, you know, core weave is maybe like a year ahead of nebius and nebius is a year ahead of iron. So if you try and just do like revenue to revenue like, oh, well, core weave has two billion. A cloud revenue like iron has what, you know, like 30 million a quarter right now or something, but that it almost like, you know, it's not really like apples apples in a way that the one started spending two years in advance, like taking out loans to spend. But I think the thing that really kind of, and use the word sour, but it's, you know, they all, they did such big capital raises, right? So I kind of realized like, oh, wait, like these businesses aren't sustainable on their own, which is something I look for like going back to Silicon motion, they pay a dividend, right? So it's like, you know, they're profit, they're profitable now. So it's like, I'd rather have something that's like proven now than something like it could be a big thing later. Also, yeah, go ahead. Well, I sort of alluded to the meta thing and the SpaceX thing, you know, these are giant companies. These these don't just dwarf iron, you know, these dwarf core weave and all the rest combined, right? You know, and if so, so with SpaceX, you know, they had a, I'm in a butcher this, but I think something like a $25 billion contract with anthropic and another $25 billion contract.
with Google, maybe something like that. And the idea is, if that can happen, and obviously it can, because it has, what is that, how does that affect? How does that trickle down or not trickle down to the rest? Is it, if you are anthropic, why not just knock it out in one field, swoop with SpaceX or Meta? Why bother finding 15 different little irons and tarar wolves and ciphers and all these, and just cobbling together all the stuff you need. So that really is a sort of a wrench in the thesis. Yeah, it's funny how that one little story with Meta about just like, we might sell some excess capacities. Like, yeah, Meta decides they want to be a neoclod, they can throw almost infinite money at it. Well, I think it started with the SpaceX stuff, because I remember people saying, of course, you've got it, you've got everybody is just juggling it when it first comes out. It's like, well, maybe this is a really good thing, because maybe it's just saying, let me look at these, look at the size of these deals. There's obviously demand, there's so much to go around. But then the fact that these smaller companies aren't really signing deals at all, right? Famously, I run for a few quarters now, it's been one deal, right? So the meme. But I think that sort of started, and it was like, well, maybe it's good, maybe it's good. And then when Meta came out, it's like, okay, this is getting weird. But I don't know. Well, I don't know. Yeah, if we circle all the way back to when we're discussing neoclod originally, Barry, I remember you saying, why aren't the hyper-skillers doing this? Or why aren't these larger companies getting in this game? If it's going to be a 90% gross margin, and super profitable, everybody needs this. So I think maybe it's come kind of full circle where now we do have a hyper-skillers saying, okay, we do want to get into this business or SpaceX, as you mentioned, that-- Yeah, I'm not calling a victory lap yet, because I still don't know how this is going to play out. I still feel like it's who knows. But I do feel like the capital that they're putting in, as you just pointed out earlier, is it's just a tremendous amount of capital. I mean, we know how much Meta has invested in all this stuff. I mean, they're on par with the Amazon's and Google's and Microsoft's of the world with how much-- we know that the aggregate there is like $800 billion a year that all these companies are putting in. So Meta's a big chunk of that. And SpaceX, if you go back to the GROC days, who knows how much Elon was spending? I don't know if it was on par with those, but it's a lot. So to get to the level where you're doing these kind of $25 billion deals, I mean, who knows how much you've spent. And this is spending $100 billion, $200 billion a year we're talking about for something like Meta versus, Iron's trying to spend $10 billion, I think. I don't know the exact number, but it is a blip on the radar screen when compared to these big companies. So it just makes the whole picture even more clear to me. Oh, yeah. And I mean, also, Core Reven, Navias, I already had deals with Meta, right? And Iron was the one that didn't have a deal. So that kind of makes it less likely. I think if Meta wants to build out this capacity themselves as opposed to outsourcing. And I think-- Well, you also mentioned like, why are the hyperscalers not doing it? I mean, I think they're obviously in this business to some extent with their cloud platforms. It's just a matter of-- I thought I thought it was telling even way back, and like going back to last year that Microsoft was kind of like hedging, you know? They're like, oh, I'll throw a bit of money here. And a bit of money to your point just now. Meta was kind of doing the same thing. That is a super murky point to me. It's like they have contracts with Navias and CoreWeve. But now they're maybe going to compete with them, too. So it's just-- Yeah, there's kind of a weird spot where they're a customer and a competitor in some ways. But I think the-- why you're asking about why they didn't get in it to it in the first place. There's just a lot of hard engineering work with the power substations and stuff. I don't think Meta wants to be building data centers as opposed to selling software. I think that maybe that was their original philosophy. But now I think a lot of these hyperscalers, they're already building their own chips, and they're getting interested in energy in these other fields. Whereas before they might have said, we're just a software company. But now they're looking at hardware solutions and maybe thinking, maybe we can do some of this engineering procurement work, which would be lower margin than we would outsource to a contractor. Maybe we can get in that game. So I wouldn't be surprised if Meta's hiring all these electrical engineers or things like that. Yeah. So-- Go ahead, Josie. Yeah, no, no. So I interrupted you earlier with the portfolio rundown. So we talked about ALAB and Credo. I'm curious additional names that you guys were-- that you're tracking, that you're focused on, especially since many of the names that you guys-- sorry, you guys-- that you, WPR, invest in, are new to us, and are kind of the cutting edge tip of the spear of eventually when old geezers like Bear and I jump in, we're like, oh, yeah, it's a common name for you at that point. Nice. Yeah, maybe we can look at some non-AI names on my list, which are app lovins, one of them, that's high confidence position for a while. Interest to see what they report. Also, this company Pattern Group, which does-- they're like a brand accelerator, kind of interesting name. And then I have ethos technologies, or their symbols life. It's a life insurance platform that's growing pretty fast. Let's see what else. Figure technology, FIGR. It's a block-- they do blockchain stuff. They've been kind of hammered with crypto-related-- getting swept up in that. But they're doing mortgages and tokenizing mortgages and things like that. So I think there's a lot of innovation there. I guess like Straduism, kind of always looking to see a company pushing this pace of product development innovation. With FIGR, they're tokenizing-- they have this maybe 70% of the market share for tokenizing real world assets. So it's kind of this unique value proposition. Probably not a very well-known name by the general market, but pretty interesting company. Yeah, I actually started in Hingehouth, too, Bear, which I had started earlier. But yeah, that's interesting. And their guidance was really strong. I'm not super hyped up about the product, being kind of this app for healthcare. But I think their numbers are so-- About the title of the episode. WPR, not for healthcare, or WPR, not for health. Yeah. That's up. Everyone gets sick with WPR. Yeah, episode 24. Everyone's up about health. Yeah. He's bearish on health, bullish on AI. But I think a couple of those names are really good examples of what you're talking about with. Like FIGR, FIGR is a really-- you and I are looking at the numbers and going, what's growth going to be sequentially in Europe? You know, pretty big, godly numbers. And not really thinking about the theme as much. I mean, it's kind of cool that they're using the blockchain to do this thing. But that doesn't mean they're the next upstar. You know, they'll get thrown in as ad and somebody will buy them because of that or sell them because of that. And they'll get thrown in with crypto, like you said. They don't have really anything to do with Bitcoin. They have a stable coin that they're using, which is-- they think it's a big opportunity. It's not pivotal to the main thing that they're doing. But they are a blockchain thing. And so they just get lumped in with all these headlines of that have nothing to do with them, which I think is really interesting. And then the hinge to your point-- I'm not super excited about the products, either except that it's plausible that it'll work. And it seems to be working. And I kind of follow the numbers first and then get excited about the product and because of the numbers, really. I don't know that much about health care or blockchain. But I can read numbers. And I think that's sort of something we have in common with the way we're looking at these and not the themes or the headlines as much. I think I have to say at this point, Drowsey is pro-health. I'm just saying it on a platform. Someone should be. Yeah. Episode 24, Bear and WPR are both unhealthy. Yeah. Sorry. Back to you, WPR. Oh, yeah. Speaking of health care stocks, I just think that the regulatory environment so uncertain that it's up in the air, which way things can go. But yeah, I think back to that, numbers talk. When companies are posting this accelerating ramp or revenue or earnings, it just gives you a lot of confidence that the business is performing. So you don't need to understand every detail of the product or what people are saying about it even. If the company's overperforming on the top line and bottom line, it's a good chance to stock well overperform. Obviously, it's not a guarantee. Sometimes, I was just thinking to Apploven. They had two great reports in a row back when I started and investing in them. And it was a big laggard in my portfolio. And there was one analyst was even like, why doesn't the market respect your results? I don't know. They're like, I don't know. It's the gaming. Is it something else? So sometimes I mean, that's one of the most Polish things an analyst can say is like, you know, why is the market
and not boosting your stock price when you're having such strong results. - Well, I don't they believe. Why don't they like the product? - Yeah. - Where they being like bear and WPR, they don't like health. - Wait, wait. - I'm not happy with the way I said that. So let me just reiterate, I totally agree that it's, sometimes the numbers can make you ask the question, why is this working? And then you get excited. If you try to do it in reverse, you get to a situation where yeah, maybe the product is exciting, genuinely, but the numbers just don't hold up. And that's, you just, you can't go that direction. You gotta go the other direction, am I paying? - When you're looking at earnings, like, and you mentioned this earlier with Silicon motion, but you have the numbers and then the commentary around the numbers to indicate something big is about to happen. You were just mentioning with App Love and of, kind of over the horizon. And then the analyst saying, well, why aren't people seeing this? I'm curious, are there phrases or setups that you look for within kind of the earnings or the press release or something that hit set over the horizon? And I'll start with something that I look at. If they're, I mean, if they're updating guidance, already you have my interest, but some of the things, some of the 2030 outlook, like by this time we should be at this number and that number always is astronomical. But if it's not that far in the future, I also think that management is putting that out for a reason. And they're putting this out on, and a target on their back if they don't hit it, suggesting the level of conviction has to be really high for them to kind of put this sort of X on their back. So that's something that I look for that, for instance, Mercado Libre has done this. Trade desks did this unsuccessfully, which is why we're not even going to mention them on the show anymore. But that's kind of a key thing that I'm looking for in some of these earning releases. It's not only raising guidance, but it's by 2028, we expect some crazy number that blows analyst expectations, which then sets the bar. Yeah, for sure. Those are all great things to look for. I remember with Silicon motions earnings, when it was first introduced in the company, they said every quarter of 2026, we'll see sequential growth. And I was just thinking, man, that's such a bold statement to make because they're a hardware business. Like what if one of their buyers, you know, their product line wraps up that quarter or something, it's very hard to guarantee that you're going to grow sequentially throughout the whole year as a hardware company. So they must have some massive confidence that, you know, and it makes sense when you tie that up, then I try and kind of tie that up with the narrative. Okay, so they signed in video, they signed Google, but then they have all these memory customers too, like SK Heinix, Micron, and others. So they have this top tier customer list. Their customer list is like booming pretty much every one of those companies is like 100% growth or something. So you know, like, so that's really encouraging. So, yeah, I'll try and, you know, before the earnings, I'll try and estimate where I think the numbers may land. I remember with Silicon Motion, I think on their guidance, I was looking for something like 330 million or maybe 340, I thought would be a good number and they guided all the way up. I forget exactly what it was like around over 400. And I was like, oh my God, yeah. Like, okay, I was definitely right. That they're like, you know, seeing this big ramp. There is this kind of like, you know, reading between the lines, I guess, because so many like management teams are so convincing. Just, you know, if you just were going to look at their promotional material, like we were talking about with without looking at financials, right? You know, any company can put out like a good promotional video or something that could get you hyped up about the products. But then you might look at the financials and realize, okay, even though they say they're doing really well, they're just not growing or something. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, yeah, go ahead. I like the example with Silicon motion because that was something that you mentioned that perked my ears up to is not only are they saying that this sequential growth will continue, but because they're not going to be more specific than that. They have no reason to be. But then that was after they grew, well, they also grew 20 something percent, so literally last quarter and guided for another 20 percent or something for this coming quarter. So you can kind of sort of put the pieces together that, hey, maybe this isn't just going to be small steps up each quarter, they're seeing something that's really explosive. And then when you dive into the sort of the detail of what they're saying, you can kind of back that up too. You can see they're talking about, oh, this product is not even launched yet, but it's going to be big. We've already got a tier one that's going to buy it and all this kind of stuff. So it really kind of is putting the pieces together, I think. Yeah, I want to see everything line up with the numbers they're posting along with the narrative, like explaining why they're having that growth. So I guess you could say my approach is like both numbers and narrative or objective and subjective. So I want strong numbers, which are showing like this geometric acceleration and growth, but also I want something that I'm excited about in terms of the product and name and things like that. So it's kind of this two-part approach of, some of its subjective, some of its like, oh, this percent went up, you know, 70% quarter, or quarter, that's a great number. Drasi, I don't want to pre-empt you and I don't want to, if you had more to say about the portfolio WPR, please do. I know Drasi wanted to hit on memory at some point and your thoughts on memory. He did a great post on our Reddit about your thoughts, but if there's any update or if you just want to reiterate that, I think everybody's interested to hear because it's definitely been, you know, an ongoing question, I think, for all of us in the market and just investors are trying to figure out what to do about this bottleneck that has turned into a big thing, in AI. Oh yeah, I went on a bit of rant on Reddit about commodities or the term commodity. I don't know who is ranting against, but, you know, it just feels like the term commodity has been kind of misused, you know, giving this example like soybeans being a commodity, right, one soybean is equal to another. There's no technological evolution of soybeans, right? But when you look at something like high bandwidth memory, right, it's on the fourth generation, there's only really three companies that can produce it. One interesting thing that Thread brought up, I was asking, you know, what are the differences between SK, high-nix, HBM and micron? And it's, they're actually vastly different, even though they build to the same spec technically, they use different processes. It's very like niche information that has such a big ramp up. And there's even, there's another company called Nanya, which is a Taiwan-based company. They make DRAM, but they don't make HBM RAM because they just don't have the technology. There's the same thing with some Chinese companies, which make DRAM, but they don't make HBM yet, and they're trying to get there. And that's where I feel like this doesn't meet the definition of a commodity, at least on the high bandwidth memory side, right? It's like a very advanced solution. It has to go through this long qualification process. There's like a very high barrier to entry. But it's kind of interesting, like, you know, with microton, it's like, you know, could be, there could be an argument made, it's undervalued, you know, if you look at, you know, either PE, like PEG ratio or, you know, price to sales, like, it's not too expensive if it gets re-rated as more like a technology player, but, you know, I've heard the case, you know, it's like, Nvidia is making this, you know, like unique innovation, right? Nobody has a black wall. Nobody has anything close to that, right? So everybody's trying to play catch up. Whereas in HBM, you have this, like, you know, three companies, I guess. I forget how you call that, but it's trioply. - Alligatoly? - Alligatoly, yeah, trioply. - Yeah. - Yeah, exactly. Something like that. (laughing) - The listeners come to us for words, so yeah, we're somewhere around there. - Yeah, exactly. So yeah, but yeah, I think the big, like, driver there is like the demand is greater than the supply, you know? And it seems like that's extending through 2020, like the end of 2027 at least, at least from what Micron is saying. I actually felt like Micron was like almost defensive on the call, like we're not sickleful, like, you know, like don't think of us as sickleful anymore. But then, one thing I found that stood out to is like, they almost apologized, they're not getting enough to product out there, they were like, we're trying our best. Like, they make it sound like they're not even doing well. You know, we're trying our best. - Okay. - It's a tough thing for them to navigate, I'm sure, because it's like, you can't just snap your fingers and then you've got more capacity, you know? That's, there's a lot, you have to invest a lot of money and then they don't wanna build all these new factories or whatever they have to do to get more supply. If they don't know that the demand's gonna be there. So, I really, I think some of these things that they've done, like the long-term contracts make a lot of sense. It's a, they definitely have to throw out a needle, though, there, I think, because they don't wanna, I mean, if they can get a, you know, price that's ridiculous for the next two years, they don't wanna lock into a price that's like half that, right, or maybe even less, even if they can get a 10-year contract or five-year contract or whatever these contracts are. So, it is a bit of a, it's a really good problem to have, but it's just, it is a slightly complicated story. That said, the Baini traditional metric, they seem cheap, so it's just a matter of how can we convince ourselves of what this is gonna look like going forward.
- Yeah, definitely, the long term contracts are really good for both sides actually. Like the automotive industry is critically dependent on memory for example, or these other industries, which might be kind of neglected otherwise, that aren't in the AI industry necessarily. They still need an allocation, right? So it's good for them to be able to lock up the supply. And then it's really beneficial for Micron too. I was surprised that, well there's analysts asking about, like how do these arrangements work? And it's basically like take or pay they call it, but it's essentially like upfront cash, unrestricted cash. Micron doesn't need to hold them in like a bond or something like that. It's like can pour that money back into CapEx. But I think going back to your earlier point about like factory expansion rates, so these fabs as they're called, they take this huge timeline to come online. So they've been building this like Idaho fab, I mean, Micron. And one in upstate New York, I think they have one in Tokyo, Singapore. So they're spending maybe 10 billion or more of CapEx per year, but no result with no revenue generation for years on end. So that's where the barrier to entry for these businesses become so big, right? But yeah, they're operating at a huge scale. But for Micron, their bit shipment, it's called, this is basically the amount of product they're producing. It only grew 20%. So that's not too impressive on its own, but I was mentioning that company Nanya would said that the DRAM price is 1 up to 60% quarter of a quarter and 500% year over year. I mean, it's just crazy to see these companies go from these low gross margin commodity and quotes to being like, we control everything now. Like, come to us for your high bandwidth memory. I love that the argument we're in a bubble, and all people have to respond with is, have you seen the price to earnings of Nvidia and Micron? We are not in a bubble. These companies have profit. They have money. In videos, price to earnings is the lowest it's been in five or six years at 18 or something, which is cheap for a company growing at 50% plus percent. Microns is single digits. I love that. That's just the response and conversation over. And yeah, and there's froth in some of these AI names for sure, but this is not a bubble in terms of traditional aspects of a bubble in 1999 situation. Yeah, if you look at the Korean exchanges, like historically low PE, because they have Samsung and they have SK high next, which are two of the top performers. So it's like the graph of the PE. I saw somebody show this is like, you know, it's like going way down. I actually learned a lot of people got over leverage in the Korean market and they got kind of washed out. So it explains why SK high next lost a third of its value real fast, even though they're, you know, like obviously, financials are crushing it and they're about to report another big quarter most likely. But yeah, I do feel that that's not how counter to you. You got washed out trading Korean futures. So yeah. I don't know exactly how to put, you know, like how to push back here. But I do feel like I have to be, I have to at least be the voice of the people who would say, well, you know, when, when commodities, you know, when the PE looks the best is like right before, you know, the stock gets cut in half or whatever. And I do think that it's really hard to know where this is going to go next though. Everything does look cheap. You know, that that is typically how that goes. I will say however, things have looked cheap for a while. So it looked cheap when a, when my car was at $300, you know, $400, you know, and it still looks cheap at $800 or $9 or whatever it's announced. So it's, it's kind of, I have to sort of talk out of both sides of my mouth on this one because I just think that there are a lot of just unknown, unknowns here, you know, like, have you, either of you guys looked at that new IPO, Sabras, Sarabras, or what, I don't even know how to say it, but I think they're using a whole different kind of ramp from what I just basically heard this on a podcast, haven't really looked into it much, but something called S-RAM. And, you know, then I also hear about all these other potential innovations that are probably years down the road. And this stuff is complicated. You know, this is, this is, the hard thing to me with big companies like Micron, SK Heinix, and certainly Nvidia is just like, it's a little bit, it's a little bit different. You don't have to worry about with something as small as Silicon Motion or, you know, even to take up completely different, you know, market or industry, something like Figure, and think that you don't have to worry about like, oh, they're gonna eventually, you know, butt up against how much demand is actually out there or whatever. No, I mean, those smaller companies that can just kind of grow like this until growth organically slows down. They're not gonna have to worry about, oh, we've taken all the market share there is to take. Yeah, for sure. No, I mean, even back in 2022, Micron had a huge downturn because, you know, all these memory companies, they overproduced because of phones and like consumer things like PCs where they thought that consumer was gonna go through an upgrade cycle, but people just held on to their iPhone for an extra six months and it totally like tanked everything pretty much. So I mean, it's not that like ancient history that like, you know, there was a more cyclical nature to the businesses. All right, and it's so hard to see that coming in either direction, right? So if you had bought then after everything had tanked, there would have been brilliant, right? But like nobody necessarily saw even a year and a half ago that the shortage was gonna get this bad and the prices were gonna go this high. If they had, they would have everybody in the world would have bought Micron and, you know, Apple and a bunch others would have bought all the memory that they needed for a while. And so it's these things are just really hard to. And I'm sort of in the camp with you guys that it's not gonna get solved in the next six months or a year or even maybe more longer than that. It may be 2028 before we even have an idea of when the only question mark for me is just how forward looking as the market gonna be when those things start to appear. Is the market gonna freak out, you know, long before that ever actually happens and we actually get these, this supply online. Yeah, and there's a whole lot of new drivers or demand, you know, from robotics or from the hyperscaler, ASIC programs, which, you know, you didn't have in previous cycles. So, you know, all those ships at Amazon or Google is building, they require the HBM memory. So, you know, and the demand's going up on their side and then, you know, people are building robotics or humanoid prototypes, you know, they need the memory as well. Interesting, yeah, you're mentioning Cerebrus or Cerebrus, I don't wanna say it either. But yeah, you know, like obviously there's gonna be like new tech coming along the side, but you have to consider like kind of scale up, right? You know, like does it require some like rare earth metals or something like that? Because you know, I mean, probably somebody can build a prototype that's way better than HBM or something, right? But can they, can they make a fab that can, you know, output that at scale in like in the near term or something? So, I think there's gonna be a lot of stories where it's like, oh my god, this company has a breakthrough technology in memory that's 10 times as fast, okay? But it's like filled with like rare earth metals or something, you know, or it's hard to make, right? That's the difference, you know, I think I was looking into like what goes into making the memory that's currently being produced. And it's more of these kind of basic commodities like Gold Silver, like, you know, some copper, but it's not like, it's not hard to find things, I guess. So I don't think like their supply chain is necessarily at risk. The same way that like, well, maybe this leads into photonics, but I really like lament them a lot, but one thing that keeps giving me pause about them is this India phosphate, I think it's called a phosphide. So they rely on this kind of like hard to find composite material or metal or something, mostly produced by China, but you know, I'm just kind of wondering if, you know, some of these photonics solutions, they might kind of run into a wall, and you know, if they're, you know, building 100% more product, do they have 100% more raw materials like on hand to get up and running? Yeah. It's complicated stuff. And you know, just think about how we just didn't use to have to worry about this with software companies. But you know, one of the things that I've always admired about how you are willing to do the work to get up to speed on these things. Even if you know you can't understand everything, we don't have all the answers as we're, you know, just circling around this memory stuff. But just the idea of just sort of like going with the numbers, not in a foolhardy way, like I'm all in or I'm levering up or whatever, but just like I'm going to like be brave and like, you know, take a stab, get into this, follow the numbers, and then continue to follow the numbers and let the numbers lead. Even if I don't, you know, like there's just very rarely wherever going to have all the answers. And I feel like I've learned a lot from this as I've
I've tried to reinvent myself over the last ever since 2022, you know, when SaaS crashed the first time. And it's just, it's really something I'm trying to do more and more of is just sort of say, there's going to be a limit to how much I can predict. And yet it's still worth, you know, following these companies and owning these companies and following the numbers in very similar ways, even even if you can't have every answer you could possibly want. Yeah, definitely. I mean, yeah, I think we got a little spoiled during the SaaS time where it's like these companies were so predictable, right? You know, if they're guiding for 500 million, you know, they're coming in at 515 or 520, you know, like you can bet anything on that prep for a lot of years, it was that way, before kind of, you know, I mean, they did kind of saturate the enterprise software market. There's only so many, you know, fortune 2000 companies to sell to. Yeah, that's that was eventually the problem, right? In 2021, it was just not, you did not a SaaS company that wasn't hiding in plain. So I mean, there was hiding at all. It was just everybody in the market caught on to what we had enjoyed for a few years and with these SaaS companies and they just got way over their skis. But yeah, definitely feels like some of these higher growth names is a lot more unpredictable. Now you just don't know where they might land. You know, the range is a lot wider for where the numbers may come in. So especially as these product cycles are different, you know. Well, I appreciate it. I feel like, you know, we have covered a little bit about the setups and the things that you look for, you know, especially just like that quarter, you know, where you sort of see a possible inflection. And then the confirmation when they report again, I feel like that's a huge, you've done that so many times and I feel like that is the kind of thing that, but, you know, especially by the time the confirmation comes around, I can, I remember when, when Seemo, when Silicon motion did, you know, exactly what you were hoping it did, it was a pretty, pretty exciting time to buy still. And so we really can follow these companies, I think. And I'm just trying to be more open-minded about it all. So thanks for sharing all those, all the, all the, you know, some of the things that go into what you look for. Oh yeah, definitely. I know we said about an hour, so we were definitely coming up on time. I guess before we joined any closing, do you have any thing you'd like to share with our audience or any, you know, you have the ear of hundreds, maybe millions of lists. Yeah, that, that, that are exponential stuff. Nice. Yeah. Yeah, I mentioned with my YouTube, I'm actually going to have a membership or a paid section where I'm going to have like a whole lot more content. I think it's going to be something really unique for the depth level of depth that's going to provide for growth investors. So I'm pretty exciting thing kind of going to be upping the amount of content I'm producing. I'm going to be basically kind of turning my, like, quote unquote, promising new ideas and new stocks into like a lot more content than with more earnings coverage and like weekly, more weekly or up to date portfolio activity and things like this. So that's some of works are stay tuned for that and not exactly trying to release day for that. Yeah, but that's pretty exciting. Something I've been thinking about for a while. Really wanted to make sure I provide like a lot of value if I'm going to, you know, ask for something in return. So it was something I was thinking about a lot. Yeah, that's awesome. So yeah, growth investing growth investing mastery on YouTube. I'm sure we'll have a lot of people that are interested in checking out what you come up with. Okay. Final completely random question. So all three of us play poker, you and bear did it way more successfully than I did favorite hand and it can't be like pocket rockets or heases truly random. Minus a jack two off so jack do's off. So stupid. There was like 13 players left and folded around to me in the small blind and I ended up going all in on the sand like like shoved free flop, which is and it because the blinds are really big, but I don't know. It's so stupid, but yeah, but anyways, I called and he had like a much better hand. He had like, I think Ace Jack and then it ran out and the last card was like a two or something. I was like, the guy was like devastated. I felt that. But it was, I don't know why like the origin behind that hand is kind of funny because we were found we're watching a broadcast and they're like the broadcast are like jack do's, jack two soft suit. He's got jack do's. He's gonna raise it. But somehow that was some code like oh my gosh. Yeah, jack do's watch out. But it's a it's a terrible hand. I guess like if I was going to name another hand, I like it might be six seven suited. It plays like super well in like all these different spots. It's probably like an actual real hand bear yours. You guys aren't going to believe this, but I used to play with a few guys in town and we were just cracking up one night about some nonsense. And it for some reason, everybody was was enamored with a hand that somebody played and it was Jack Jack to we were calling it Jack duck, you know, duck suit for two's or something called ducks. And so my screen name for like fantasy football for the last eight years has been jack duck. So that's a crazy coincidence. What are the odds? That's a mystery duck to you, jack duck. And as you were as we were talking, I was also like well, if I had a serious answer, what would it be? And like six seven like suited or you know, maybe five six suited something like that is is also a great answer. Also small pocket pairs are pretty fun. But like you didn't ask me like hold the hands that I like to play. So Jack duck, yeah, for the win. That's amazing. Nice. What I think I think Jack duck and Jack, Jack to off suit are the perfect way to kind of wrap up this episode. So bear, do you want to wrap us up? Oh boy. Do I? So we so for anybody that doesn't know we have this running joke, but I don't know how to end the podcast, which is not really a joke, which is actually true. But I'm going to give it a try. So WPR, thank you so much for joining us today. Everybody thanks for listening. You can always find us at shooting the bull pod 2025 a Gmail. Is that right? Okay. Sweet. And oh gosh. This is where I always get caught. We'll be doing great buddy. Oh man. Oh, I was I was on a roll and then I stopped to ask you if I was right. So hit us up at the pod or on Twitter and we'll be back with you soon. Thanks for listening.