Episode 13: Jason Moser On Surviving and Thriving During Market Downturns

Hey guys and welcome to episode 13 of "Shootin' the Bull Pot" with Drousy and Bear. Bear and I have been looking forward to hosting this guest now for months and months. And we are very excited to have the one and only Jason Moser is a senior analyst at Mollie Fool and we're so excited to have Jay Moons out Jaymo. Thank you for spending some time with us. While those are some very kind words but it is a thrill of joy in you so thanks for having me. In true "Shootin' the Bull Pot" fashion, never knowing how a show is going to start. I wanted to start this show with a story. In let's go back to 2016 and a young Drousy, right? I pushy-tailed Mollie Fool Member in STOLAM, was constantly researching a small company called NVIDIA at the time. A $20 billion market cab, big into gaming, all my friends at the time were gaming, couldn't stop talking about GPUs and how fast and how realistic the graphics were. And I did my one and only write up on NVIDIA which no one will ever see because the grammar mistakes alone make it illiterate so it's helpful to no one. But that was the one time I put hours and hours of research in and the one time I publish a piece. I then remember I was working out in early May and I was listening to Mollie Fool Money, the Friday show, and stocks on the radar, slightly younger but no less astute JMO had mentioned that he was very interested in NVIDIA. And I was on the treadmill, I was running about, I don't know, six-minute mile. I was really low age but what am I, a marathon man? Anyway, so I was running. Some of these details are more accurate than others. Yeah, this is history. I remember running and listening to JMO and I remember stopping and almost falling off the treadmill. At that moment, I put in my first order for a video, 10 o'clock in the morning or something, and that ended up to be $1 share split adjusted. More personally say thank you for everything you do, thank you for changing my family's fate. It truly changed my family's fortune, so thank you JMO. Well, that's an awesome story and I mean, you're the one that clicked the buy button, right? That was just a stock on my radar. I'm gonna extend my thanks to David Gardner because David Gardner is the one that got it on my radar back when we were talking about that on Team Stock Advisor. So man, that sounds like an awesome result there for you still hanging on to those shares. I am against lots of advice to maybe trim and have you seen the market today? Yes, still holding on 80 or 90% of them. So. So we're going to be on Wednesday, February 4th and we have to start off by talking about SaaS apocalypse and the market, at least the tech and growth market is in free fall kind of reminiscent of some of the COVID drops that we experienced in 2020, 2021 obviously different world but still 5, 10% down for many of the names that we wrote up. So JMO, I wanted to get your kind of initial take at what's going on in the market and how you're approaching things. So I would say generally speaking when I think about things like this, I always kind of approach this by thinking well, first and foremost, the market usually has it right. Yeah, I mean, the market is no dummy and usually you want to be paying attention. Now with that said, I mean, this is just a sell off of Epic portions, right? I mean, there is just no, no, no company is safe from this. It feels like and I think that you know, this is all hinging on that AI thesis, right? That AI is going to disrupt everything in these SaaS businesses in particular or vulnerable. And I think to an extent that's true. I mean, yeah, AI is definitely going to disrupt some of these companies and render them probably obsolete. But that's not going to be, I think the, the stand, I don't think that's going to be the rule, right? I think that'll be the exception. I think they're going to be a lot of companies that ultimately use AI to make them better. But with that said, I mean, it's understandable sort of if you think about this SaaS business model and you think about subscriptions and you think about seats. And if companies are paying for those seats to get whatever service, if AI is able to automate a lot of those tasks that those people are doing, well, then that results in, you know, fewer employees, fewer seats. And you can kind of see where we're going with these a lot of these businesses, they start to feel a little bit of a crunch on that top line and that works the way all the way down bottom line. But again, I don't think that's, I think that's the exception. I think generally speaking, we're going to see more companies utilizing AI to ultimately make their businesses better. But I'll look at Salesforce as an example here, customer relationship management, obviously Salesforce, I think the funny thing about Salesforce is it's always a little bit difficult to fully explain what the company does, right? But it's because it does a lot, right? Customer relationship management and being able to help their customers, you know, convert sales in manage relationships with their customers. Now it is a big business with a lot of moving parts. And to think that you could probably just go like vibe code something that would compete with what Salesforce is doing, I think is naive to be honest with you. I mean, I think that's just that's probably not going to happen. And yet Salesforce is just getting thrown out with all of these other companies. I mean, Salesforce is using AI in their business today, right? That Salesforce AI agent and they continue to find new ways to incorporate into their business. So again, I think you look at certain businesses where they're going to say, well, this business is going to be stronger because of AI. You're niche businesses that maybe kind of have more of a one off offering, they could be susceptible. I mean, it's not guaranteed. But you know, I was looking at there was a tweet that Aaron Levy sent out earlier today. Now Aaron is the CEO at box. And I tend to like to listen to guys in this space because they know, right? They're the ones witnessing this firsthand. And he, you know, he knows he thinks AI coding is going to, you know, 100 times more software and solutions. And I think that's right. I mean, I think this is ultimately going to give us more and better software than we've ever seen in our entire lives. But that doesn't necessarily mean that every customer is going to want to be responsible for owning and managing their own systems, right? I mean, that just takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of effort. It takes a lot of budgeting, right? Do companies want to waste their resources on trying to build their own system? You know, building it, working out the bugs, proving the case, then you got to maintain and support it. You got to figure out distribution, all of that stuff. Or do you want to just go ahead and rely on a vendor or provider that has a track record of success and gives you everything that you need so that you can allocate your resources to actually solving the problems that your customers have. So I do think we'll see some companies try to build it and utilize AI to their advantage. But I don't think that's going to be the rule. I think what I find pretty interesting about this. I'm glad you brought up sales force. I think as we're taping now service now sales force, AC and all down 40, 50, even 60% snowflake down about 1400,000%. So it's quite the downturn. And what's interesting is usually during these downturns, I've seen, and what I've practiced a bit too, is kind of a coalesce around strong companies. You coalesce around mag seven, you coalesce around Amazon and Google because whatever happens in the world, those companies are going to pass to quote David Gardner, the snap test. Those companies are going to be there and probably stronger because they can take advantage of these week time. This is so violent and hitting those stalwarts that people relied on for so long. Those companies that should be the beacon in this realm could be so violently upset in such a short period of time. At least that's the perception. This is almost putting the traditional kind of approach to these kind of balance ahead, making more volatile. Yeah, it's just it's indiscriminate. I mean, and that's sometimes it is irrational, right? And you know that old saying the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain a solvent. So you got to kind of buckle up for stretches like these. And you know, you asked earlier, like, how do I deal with these types of situations or handle these types of selloffs. And you know, it was interesting. I don't really look at my portfolio all that often, but I was curious today to see what was going on. I looked at my portfolio and you may hate me for the strousing. I'm sorry, but my portfolio is just rock solid flat for the day. It's not up. It's not that it's flat. That's pretty good. That's an amazing. It's not pretty good about that. You know why it's flat. It's because I own companies in there like Visa and Mastercard and Home Depot and Nike and Starbucks and companies like that where, you know, AI isn't going to build your house, right? I mean, it may help companies in engineering design. It's not going to pour me a cup of coffee. It's not going to print me and build me a new pair of tennis shoes, right? So I think my point I'm getting at there is I times like these are great reminders for me in the value of diversification, right? I mean, you're McCormick's of the world. They don't like the world on fire. But when times like these come around, it kind of helps you sort of emotionally handle stretches like this because as we know and investing is is very emotional. And in one of the biggest challenges, I think we all have to face and it never ends is just sort of figuring out ways to take the emotions out of it. And for me, diversification is one of those ways. One one thing that we were talking about a bit pre show is these defensive plays valuations are getting pretty stretched. I totally agree that AI and if AI gets rid of the software layer on some of these stacks, then they have more money to put elsewhere. They can hire they can produce more coffee. They can reduce workforce potentially all, you know, straight to the bottom line. So that's great. We're now saying Walmart at evaluation of 40 41 forward sales. No, sorry price to earnings. and in videos at 26. You're seeing Target have a plus 10% day in the last few days, up 10%. You're seeing all these having their moment and I get it, it's just such a weird valuation play. So I'm wondering, how do you think about parsing out this kind of these names that should be defensive are quite expensive kind of relative to their normal valuation? Meanwhile, these SAS plays are being treated as if they're going to zero, which I mean, I'm with you. I think many are not. And I would bet on Mark Benioff and some of these other visionaries to kind of see their way through. But it's just such a dislocation. So how do you think about that? Yeah, it does feel that way. And you know, that's sort of, I guess we hear that word rotation, right? We're seeing a lot of people rotating out of one class and rotating into another. And yet that demand can certainly push those valuations up as people continue to sort of flee towards safety. I think that for me, that's where you focus on sort of the quality of the business. You talk about David Garder's snap test. And I think you think about things like the snap test where you snap your fingers and the company disappears what it matter where the world feel it. And then there's the other test, the cola test. And this will apply a little bit later on in the show, I'm sure. But like, is there a Pepsi to their Coke? You know what I mean, I mean, look at companies like Visa and Mastercard. Yeah, those valuations are getting a little bit pushed up there. But those are companies that are also just the absolute leaders in their market, a home depot, same kind of idea, right? I mean, it is the leader in its space. Starbucks similar, right? Going through a little bit of a transition here and we'll have to see if Brian Nichol can make it all work. Yeah, even when those valuations do seem to get a little bit stretched, I remind myself, just as stocks are cheap for a reason, sometimes they can appear expensive for a reason. And oftentimes that's just due to the quality of the business and the competitive position the company holds. So that kind of got me thinking a bit on as we think towards looking through the record. You have some of these amazing names. So let's move, I guess slightly beyond like the Salesforce, but you have CrowdStrike, you have kind of the cybersecurity plays that I know you love and hold dearly as do I. Bear has been trying to get me to sell my CrowdStrike for years. I just can't part ways with it. And George Kurtz has such swag. I just can't have a thing for CEOs with swag apparently in Jensen. But I wanted to get your thoughts on maybe helping investors think through how to what to best focus on in terms of looking at these down being companies. A lot of them are well known. A lot of them have been around the block. Is there a certain metric or certain thing that you can help investors think about how to evaluate strength, basically? Yeah, well, I mean, this is a good time to really look at healthy balance sheets for sure. I mean, the companies that have weak balance sheets are going to find themselves in a more precarious situation than those that are healthy. So looking at that balance sheet, making sure the company is in a net cash position, understanding are they burning through their cash? You can just look at the balance sheet over the last five years and see, is that cash position growing or is it dwindling? And that can give you an idea of if they're going to have to play a little bit more defense or if they get stuck having to raise capital in an environment like this where their stock prices is getting hit so hard. I mean, that's really a double whammy that you don't want to ever see. So you see a company doing a capital raise in conditions like this that could be concerning. Generally speaking, I always just pay attention to what management says they're going to do. That's one of the things we talk about assessing management, assessing leadership. It's always kind of a squishy topic. But I like just looking for leadership that does what they say they're going to do, just consistently in and out. And sometimes you just have to kind of suck it up and deal with tough stretches like this. But if it's a company that holds a strong competitive position, you can see that through top line growth over time. I think that's a good indicator that the business is performing well and just dealing with a difficult environment, which is just going to be out of their control. I was thinking about something you said earlier, Jason, where the companies that you may not be super looking at recently to add to in your portfolio, maybe the ones catching a bid here. And the diversification really goes a long way. This is something-- Drowsy and I have talked about recently. I used to be a very concentrated portfolio guy. And Drowsy definitely has his concentrated positions like Nvidia. Take me back. But it is a good point, because I think recently I have enjoyed the merits of smaller positions on average and more of them. And then when something like this comes along and some of my favorites are down 30% year to date, I'm thinking of rubric, applovens down 40%. That's the time to add when those multiples start coming down. And another thing you said is make sure you're not missing something. The market isn't usually completely wrong. But the market is also not completely right, I guess, to give the multiples that it was giving to those stocks a month ago. I feel like that's one place we can sometimes look as the stuff that we were already excited about, the stuff that we have recently added to the portfolio, or recently been looking as an opportunity to add. Rubric is already-- it was one of my favorite positions coming into the year. Now it's down 33%. I don't like it any less. Well, I mean, you make a great point there. It's funny you mentioned rubric and, you know, Drowsy had mentioned CrowdStrike. And what I've been looking at here over the last few days is actually cybersecurity. And I've wanted to establish a position in cybersecurity for a while now. But the valuations just always kept me a little bit skittish. And I'm also not like an expert in cybersecurity. I mean, I know that we need it. And I have exposure to CloudFlare, which that's part of its business. But I really wanted to gain some exposure to cybersecurity if and when the time came. And it feels like it's now. It feels like this is going to be an attractive time. So I'm not trying to necessarily pick a winner. I was looking at actually kind of putting together a little cybersecurity basket. And it would be CrowdStrike, Rubric, and Palo Alto Networks, possibly Z Scaler. But just taking a lump-son, maybe breaking that out into the three or four positions, and just building that little cybersecurity basket, because I am fairly confident that five and 10 years from now, we're still going to need cybersecurity. And I'm fairly confident we're going to need for the rest of my lifetime. And so when you find-- I also don't feel like I'm going to be asking Cloud to just spin me up a little cybersecurity application. And how am I going to know if that works? This works, right, Cloud? [LAUGHTER] You know, you're going to see the companies where you got to look at it and say, you know, they're utilizing AI to their advantage. They're the companies that can see around those corners and protect us from the threats. At the fore, we have this quantum leap service that we just started up. And we're kind of looking-- we're focused on the quantum computing opportunity, which is really just kind of starting to gain a little bit of attention. But I think over the course of the next five and 10 years, we'll be hearing a lot about it. And one of the big threats there is post-quantum cryptography. And cryptography is just how all of that information that goes around on the internet is kept secure. And right now, that cryptography is just based on classical computing that we all use. And it's just kind of what these companies are focused on. But these companies are also very much-- and even Visa and Mastercard, these are companies that are looking at that quantum computing future and figuring out how to build protections for that post-quantum cryptography. Because quantum computing will be able to crack a lot of modern classical cryptography methods today. So it's never ending. It's always evolving. And I mean, you're looking at those companies as they're the ones that are really leading that charge, which gives me sawas and feeling like, those are companies that you can hang on to for a long time. I-- the overlap of your war on cash basket and cyber security is crazy. I was just thinking, I've owned Mastercard since 2012, 2013 time frame. And just the amount of press releases I've seen on expanding their railroad, their infrastructure, but also on protecting it, and coming up with new innovative ways and partnering with new companies is astounding. It is playing exactly into that cyber security basket in a way 10 years ago I didn't even think about. Yeah, absolutely. And these companies-- you get your understanding, they're competitive position. And kind of they're-- I mean, you want to talk about pass in the snap test, right? I mean, Visa and Mastercard pass it easily. But I mean, that is just-- right, the digital movement of money is only going to continue to be the case as time goes on. And so yeah, they are really thinking ahead as to how to protect all of us from those threats and themselves as well. I don't see Baron. I look in quantum anytime soon. We need to figure out what quantum is. And then maybe in a company, we know it as I on Q or whatever that kind of meme stock is. But I think that's the extent of our-- I'm speaking on behalf of us. Yeah, we don't know anything. It's a fascinating space. I didn't know much of it going into it. But we have a 90-way, a small team of analysts that are working on the service together. And we've all had a lot of fun learning about it. It's high tech. It's complicated stuff for sure. I'll say this as part of my education on diversification. I've come to appreciate the merits of a half percent. position or a 1% position and something. And you know, Drowsy and I have talked a lot about the Neoclouds. I'm sure you're familiar with Nebias and Core Weave and even Iron probably. You know, when I first heard about these things, I, you know, I was very flip. And I, I, I just kind of laughed them off and said, what these things are never going to make any money. And then of course, you know, 200% up later, I'm like, well, maybe I should take a quick walk, you know? So certainly I think that even, you know, that, that not understanding a new technology is not necessarily, you know, the barrier to at least starting your education, maybe even with a half a percent position or something. I know Drowsy did something recently similar with, um, was it rocket lab? So I mean, you know, we're not rocket scientists, but we can, we can, you know, start our education somewhere. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's the key is, I mean, I think as investors, I mean, humility is one of the greatest qualities, uh, you can, you can possess as an investor is like just knowing what you don't know, recognizing the factors. There's a lot of stuff you just don't know. And as long as you know that, then I think it opens yourself up. You can learn more. You can say, well, I, you know, I don't really know enough about that. I'm going to take a pass on that idea. I'm not really sure why it makes sense. I mean, I, you know, I would use Bitcoin as an example there. I mean, I don't, I still know that I don't understand why it exists. Clearly, there's something there. I mean, but I just don't know enough about it. And I've just said, you know what? I know what I don't know here. And I'm just going to take a pass. People have made some money with it. I think that's great. Uh, you know, we'll, we'll see where it goes. And, you know, I think cybersecurity is another good example. I mean, I, I can't sit there and tell you all of the puts and takes in the tech, uh, behind it all. I do know that it's something that we need. And I do know that you can look at companies where just they have a track record of success in growing customer bases and growing revenues and whatnot. And you can sort of start to pick out some of the winners in those spaces. So yeah, I think, uh, knowing what you don't know is, is a, is a good quality. I, uh, while we, I think we got the most hate mail that we've received from our, you know, thousands of listeners. And when we spoke against iron and nevius, I never received so many. You guys just don't understand. And very, and I were very blunt. We don't understand that's right. The numbers don't make any sense. Yeah. We never said we did. And then a few episodes later, hand up. We got it wrong. Yeah. Me, Colpo. That's on us. Yeah. Well, while we're, people said to me, you just, you know, you don't get Bitcoin. I'm like, yep, that's exactly my type of. I can't. Kind of said it better. Just not, I don't care. It's okay. Whatever I understand that I don't understand it. That's, I admit that. Well, and while we're circling around humility, um, maybe this is a good time for an intervention. Uh, Drazi, you want to tell Jason, uh, what percentage of your portfolio you have in Nvidia? This is something I'm always working on and on. And, um, yeah, it's hard. It's hard to sell. It's hard to pay taxes. It's hard to do all that. But, uh, the, it, it, I believe it's still above 30%. Yeah, even after this drawdown, I'm at 34% in video. And, and it is obviously my largest holding by a lot. It is, it's hard for me to try to trim the company is doing everything right. The narrative wins are pushing it up and down and that's fine. But they're getting lots of wins. I mean, the China upside that just came through was not in any analyst expectations. There's lots of geopolitical, shave going on to try to see through it all. Like the company is doing just fine. It's led by one of the best CEOs of all time. So I see bears point that it is painful on drawdowns like these. And there are other areas that I know probably are more profitable and chances of doubling are a lot higher than a five trillion dollar company going to 10 trillion. But, uh, whatever this company is just doing everything right and it's tough for me to sell something that the underlying company is doing so well. Well, and of course, I'm, I'm kidding about the intervention here. We don't really need to, I mean, this is totally your business. But, um, and also, I'll even say that you're probably down a lot less on Nvidia than most of the things in my portfolio year to day at least. So, so there's that. It's for me, it's more just this, this sort of this idea of diversification, um, not, not even necessarily as a, like I'm not super worried that Nvidia is going to zero or anything like that. Or even the truth going to lose your shirt on a big pullback because, you know, if it's pulling back, there's probably other stuff pulling back, blah, blah, blah. It's more just the opportunities that I see to, you know, add the things that really are, um, worth adding to opportunistically and to, uh, you know, the tradeoff of if Nvidia does kind of stagnate for a while, maybe, maybe you could have moved some of that to rubric. And of course, I'm going to pick that one, but, you know, um, I'm not going to, I'm not going to tell you, um, how to, how to, I'm not, obviously, like, this is all theoretical. And this is all just sort of how I think about things. Well, that Nvidia position too, it's not like you bought it. Yeah. Yeah. And you're portfolio, right? I mean, that's a good problem to have. And it just starts to take up more and more because the business has done so well. Great point. Yeah. I don't have any issues with outsized positions as long as you feel like you understand what the business is doing and you're comfortable with it. I mean, you know, that's, uh, we talk about the sleep test, right? I mean, is this something that keeps you up at night? If not, well, hey, I mean, everybody's, everybody's got their own path and their own sort of, uh, risk tolerance in as long as it's something that you're okay with and you feel comfortable and following the company and know what they're doing. I mean, yeah, I've seen, I've seen, I've seen folks with, with heavier positions than that, I can tell you. Like, like Michael Saylor, but, um, I just put on, you know, when I wake up in the night and kind of worry and get a little cold, I just put on my leather jacket and I want to ride back up. Um, I think it's a good opportunity if we're talking about percentages and portfolios. My number two right now is axon and it was at, um, a 17% position, which I hadn't added, added to recently, again, going back. I first bought it at $30 or so in 2017 or 2018 and just sort of held and added along the way, especially post earnings when it kind of had a clean bill of health, especially a couple of years ago, 2023 and 2024. Um, I'm the roaring kitty of axon. Um, I could not wait to talk to you about axon as someone who has interviewed the company multiple times in excellent, excellent interviews that all of our listeners should, should definitely go back and listen to better understand axon and understand where they're going. Um, I wanted to get your take axons down about 27% this year. You know, the chart looks awful. The narrative wins. The, um, political ramifications going on. There's so much going on, uh, except the business hasn't given us any new news. There's nothing, uh, really alarming from the business sense is my take. But I wanted to kind of open up the conversation and leave it broad. What are you thinking about axon right now? Yeah. I mean, I, I've not owned axon quite as long as you have, but I've owned it for a while. And so, you know, even with this pullback, I, you know, I'm looking at a nice winner in my portfolio in, in my first inclination is like, man, I'm starting to get a little interested here and maybe adding to that position. Now one thing I had called out a while back, I've recommended axon. I think four times in the services that I run at full. And, uh, I think every time I recommended it, it said, you know, one of the biggest risks with this company is valuation in the sense that it is just priced, uh, as, as a market leader with zero competition. And I mean, you think about a company like axon passes that snap test very easily. And I think more interesting though is the colotest. Like, there really isn't a Pepsi to their Coke. I mean, there are companies out there that do some of the things that they do, but as a collective, there's no company out there that does everything that axon does. And, uh, so for me, at least the valuation being the biggest risk, I mean, I get it, right? I mean, they plow so much of that money back into the business. I mean, if you look at just R&D and SG&A alone, I mean, you kind of get the picture. That's where, that's where a lot of that profitability is going. But when you look at the top line, I mean, the company is just continued to grow like, wow, fire. I mean, I was looking through my notes here from a quarter ago where revenue grew 31%. That was the seventh consecutive quarter of growth for better than 30% and the 15th consecutive quarter, better than 25%. Now, you know that old saying records are meant to be broken, right? At some point, that streak is going to stop. And so the question I was always asking myself is like, what is the market going to do when that streak ends? And I don't know, but I do feel like we're seeing a lot of selling of this company today, based on really no news, right? They haven't really done anything other than make a couple of acquisitions there. What they bought the 911 companies, right? It was carbon. Carbine. Yeah. Other than that, though, I mean, they haven't really, you know, they haven't really made any news. So, so again, it's kind of, it kind of goes back to the valuation. I think just the general selling that we've been seeing. But yeah, I mean, I've been able to interview Josh isn't the president with the company. I think I've spoken with him three times now if I'm not mistaken. He's just a really nice guy and he always gives, you know, a great interview and talks a lot about about the company and the opportunities. And I think what impresses me with the company, probably the most is how they continue to expand that market opportunity, right? I mean, the acquisition of D-drone, right? And building that drone is a first responder service. The acquisitions of the prepared and carbine and really building out axon 911, the AI era plan. I mean, building these tools like transcription and translation. I mean, that transcript. the transcription tool has gotten the green light from the justice system, right? The judicial system, it's already taken it in the courts, judges, prosecutors, they all say, "Wow, this is a product that really works." And it's saving police just loads of time in preparing those reports. So I am definitely looking at this pullback and starting to get a little bit interested and maybe adding a little bit more in my position because I do feel like they still have a lot of room to capture a lot of market share. I do continue to wonder, what does the market do when those streaks end? But by the same token, I don't necessarily see why those streaks would end anytime soon. As soon as I say that, it probably ends this. >> [LAUGH] >> 16% drowsy cannot be found. Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> There's so much I want to pick at, just really fun to actually kind of go deep on the axon and bear here's this almost every morning we talk. And listen about axon, he's ready to cut me off. There's so many different facets that you raised, the growth prospects and what happens next, something that keeps me up at night. A few things that I've been thinking about recently, some of the drop, them buying a 911 company with low margins that's not counter-drone, that's not sexy, that fills out their ecosystem. It seemed like a smart move, but it seemingly caught investors really flat-footed. It played into this narrative that Motorola had taken sort of these low-hanging fruits and Motorola wasn't doing a great job, so why is axon waiting into their territory and trying to get it? I get what Josh was saying, you kind of need to have from call to bad guy put away. You need to have that transparency, you need to have that whole ecosystem to offer and drive margins higher and drive kind of packages to customers. But that really was surprising. A few things that I think about also international sales, this is a major driver for axon. Rick Smith once said that he expects 70% of the revenue to come from overseas compared to its 30% right now, so he expects domestic versus international flip, which I think is crazy and also so much upside. And I'm waiting to see those announcements. And they kind of filter and occasionally like the Brazilian national police and the random European country signs a deal and I like that, but I really want to see some steps showing that that 70% is actually attainable and is actually in the near-ish future. And then the other thing that I think about a lot too is the enterprise expansion. So they've signed one of the biggest customers. I absolutely loved your attempt to find out who that customer was. I loved Josh deflected it very nicely, but I was really hoping. I hoped it rhymed with shmammage on or something. But they also are in the Walmart testing phase too. And that's been going on over a year and no big announcement about that enterprise deal. So I'm starting to get a little nervous in the right word. Maybe impatient is the better word. They have these big horizon, these big things over the horizon that I think will keep that 30% growth and even expanded. So I'm really excited. But we haven't seen those breadcrumbs over the last few quarters of them achieving these big goals. Yeah, I mean, I think that makes a lot of sense. I too, when I saw that projection regarding the international revenue, that was an attention getter. And I thought, and it made me think back in the day, if you remember when Netflix said the same thing at some point, probably a decade, maybe even more 15 years ago, when Reed Hasing said, ultimately, believe it or not, this company is going to make more money outside of the US than it does inside the US. And you look at where they are today and that seems to be the case. And I get it. I mean, entertainment is worldwide. I think public safety is also worldwide. And I do think that they ultimately will be able to get to that. When that happens, it's anyone's guess. But I do also appreciate the fact that they are capitalizing on the enterprise side of things going beyond public safety. And I think we're seeing just more and more. I mean, those solutions are really, they're really needed. And I know at some point we're going to find out what that big customer is, who that big customer is. All I could get was that it was something in logistics. And I don't know if it's UPS or Amazon or whoever, but I do think that enterprise opportunities, maybe something that's flying a little bit under the radar right now, but they've got the new, the new, many body cams coming out and companies more and more looking, not only to protect their assets, but also their employees. It's just one of those things where I feel like the market opportunity for a company like Axon is never going to go away. And I understand their position in wanting to maintain that leadership position. Keep the foot on the gas because this is the time to really do that before other companies could come in there and try to take away some of that share. Especially with enterprise. It doesn't pass the New York Times test of a company doesn't spend an extra amount of money to keep their employees safe and they have an increased amount of sexual assaults on the job or theft. It would be insane for companies to not invest in this. And Axon is taking advantage. I want to see, and this is me being greedy, I want to see those announcements start rolling in. I want to see that actually pick up. They've been to tons of trade shows. They've done everything right. They've done podcasts. They've really laid the foundation. I want to see those big deals rolling in because I really think that's the next wave. I want to see a lot of other companies running on the same day. was on John Oliver and not a good light showing, or John Oliver, I guess, let me rephrase this. John Oliver did a series on Axon on how tasers don't actually save people and the company was being a bit shady. I think a lot of it's been dispeled. Rick Smith went on a podcast and did a whole blog about how John Oliver got it wrong. I think there are these like perennial narratives that tasers aren't as effective as Axon claims that the translation isn't as good, that draft one and their AI programs actually don't save the amount of times claimed. There's lots of these little articles. I mean, they're out there. I don't think they matter and I also think the perception, I mean, they're trying to do good. The perception is they work. So I think some of these articles are just floating out there. I've been asked like, "Oh, does this make you want to sell?" No. I mean, not until there's actual studies or hard facts or adjustments, which I think Axon would acknowledge and then try to figure it out. So they pop up every now and again and there's also some stuff on Axon culture and what's it like working in the company is it for at-house or as an actual tech company. All of these are out there. I just flag it for our listeners, our investors. I don't make much of it. I'm curious if you have any kind of concluding Axon thoughts on it. Yeah. I think there's always anecdotal stuff that comes up with any investment and I tend to, I mean, I always at least pay attention to it and try to make sense of it. And I mean, you can see plenty of anecdotal evidence that the stuff that Axon is doing is just scoring on all fronts. Right? They have plenty of testimonials that they put out there from public safety. You can find those in the shareholder letters and whatnot. I tell you, another anecdotal little thing that I'd like to throw in here. You know, I play golf. And I guess a couple of years ago, I went out and played golf with a buddy at work and he had two friends join us. And these are guys that are officers with the Washington DC police department. You know, we got, you know, a golf is together for four and a half hours on the course just and so there's plenty of time to talk and whatnot. So you spend four and a half hours on Axon. You went by and started me being the investing nerd I am. I was like, guys, let me ask you a question. And I was like, you know, Axon, you ever heard of it? What do you think about it? And both guys, they were like, dude, we can't live without it. They were like, it is just, they do everything. They do it well. Music to draw these ears. I couldn't hear you over me putting in the order right now to buy more. So I mean, again, anecdotal, but they they were very clear. They were like, there is no other competitor out there that they feel like they would consider and that they're that their office absolutely fully 100% depends on it. They like it. You know, they like all of the all of the goods and services that they provide. So again, just anecdotal, but I thought it was pretty cool to get that feedback from a couple of guys who really actually have intimate knowledge of using their products and services. I think the perfect way to wrap up the Axon part. I wanted to why don't bear, why don't we do our quick update and then we'll kind of wrap up with stocks on our radar? Sounds good. Do you want to start? Yeah, actually not not really too much to talk about other than I've put a lot of the cash back to work. The sort of order of the portfolio sizes still still looks pretty similar to the way it always has with rubric at the top of the individual stocks a little bit bigger just across into double digits. But then I got some mid single digit positions that will sound familiar. Orange health, Apple oven, avocado, Libre, sterile labs and credo. Do you limit it as up to almost four and a half percent position anyway? So I've really been thinking that's a screaming by right now. And then you're going to like this, Josie, right about 4 percent Axon. Move it up. A tear to my eye. And then I've got, you know, Monday, actually I did back Reddit. So these are all three percent and under. And then the ones we've talked about, many times, Navias, Rout, Iron. I've added a little bit to Duelinggo. Just a bunch of, you know, sub one percent positions. But anyway, yeah, I think, you know, if I could throw my two cents into the Axon conversation, I mean, to me this is, this is like the company I think about when I think about moats. I mean, there's just really don't get much more lock in than what they have with, you know, police departments everywhere. And everything else they're trying to do to me just seems like complete, you know, hopefully optionality, but certainly like shots on goal. I think of like, you know, what did Google used to call their other bets, you know, like the, yeah, I mean, Rick is obviously totally a forward thinker and he's getting into drones and he's like, what's going to be next and what are police departments going to need? And you know, the year 2050 and, you know, he's on it. And that's what they're thinking about. And they are very tied to that clientele and are going to do everything they need to do. And so, so my two cents is just that this is a perfect time to make it an exercise and adding and trimming. I've owned it for a long time. I got out of it at some point. I was not in it at 800, but I think, well, I had at least one share around 700 with one share because of drowsy, but that's true. But again, you know, this is a, this is a valuation story. This is a, you know, it's a market cap of it's down to about 35 billion. I think, you know, could I see them being 100 billion someday? Sure. Sure. I mean, they're not going to, but then by the same token, they're not going to be Amazon. So you just got to kind of, I think it's a perfect one to be adding and trimming. And the market gets excited about it. And right now the market's not excited about it. So I'm that I think one of the most, okay, you got me back on axon. Sorry, sorry, sorry. What's your portfolio look like? Well, speaking of axon, no, as if we didn't know. I think, I think Rick Smith's most important thing he's said in the last few years, I don't remember which quarter was, but was in 2023 or 2020, early 24. When he said he spends 200 days on the road meeting with customers every year, I think that is an unbelievable mode that no other company in the space even comes close to. And yes, he's in his 60s, he's getting up there. So like, I don't know if I want him to continue to be that out there, but the fact that he's talking with these people every day, I think cannot be understated. Yeah, I think they love him and the team. I mean, like Jason Scroff, but he's, you know, they love axon. They just think axons got our back. And his ability to speak to customers and get real problems and then come up with solutions. And he has a great team around him to action. Like he can be the ideas guy. He doesn't have to be the actual arm. He's got, he's got a Josh and Brittany to do that. Okay, bear, what are you overall? And as listeners know, we casually compete sometimes more casually. Bear, what are you up or down so far this year? Well, everyone that has listened for a while will know that your goal is to triple me. You do not want to be tripling me this year. I'm down 12% year today. I'm going to be a little sorry. 11 and a half. Let's let's round down. Okay, so 11 and a half. Okay, so for me, what I've done this month is, and I've talked a bit about this last year. And it's a little bit of an out there play for me. So I ended up selling out of Apple completely. So I sold my Apple position for the first time to be completely out since 2012, maybe 2013. I mean, something that bear that you've mentioned, the upside going forward on Apple is probably not as high as some other companies that are undervalued or are experiencing hyper growth. And for me, Apple was always just tried and true and steady. It went up. I wanted to use that money, a for life stuff. So I did take some money out of the market, but B, I wanted to try something a little bit different. I ended up building out a 3% position in four, and I bought leaps on four, which is something that I don't normally do, but shift for payment for listeners that don't know as a payment option. The company's market cap is sub 5 billion. It has been absolutely shwacked by investors thrown out with PayPal and all these others. But it has accelerating growth. It has a run rate of 1 billion, 1 billion dollar run rate by 2027. It's buying back over a billion dollars of share. There's a lot of good there. And I just think the odds are in my favor of maybe a good outcome. Now, I'm not sure this is the next Amazon. 5 billion turning to 10 billion seems a lot easier than an Apple 3 trillion going to 6 trillion. It's having a good day today. It's had a horrible couple of weeks, so I wouldn't think too much into it. But the numbers are there. So I'm intrigued to see what happens. I think if they execute this billion dollar share a buy back, it's going to be quite interesting. That would be, I don't know, 15-16% of outstanding shares. And this is also 30% lower than where the CEO just bought on the open market, 16 million dollars. So I think there's enough there that makes me interested. I built out a little bit of a position there while selling Apple. The rest, I still have the same percentages as I usually do in videos up to 38%. That's kind of wild. I'll see how well I sleep at night. I'll have to pull up that leather jacket real tight. Axons about 13% crowd strikes at 10, Amazon's at almost 10 and Mercado Libres at 8 are my top 5 and the rest are about the same. I am, as we speak, I'm only down 10% so by my math, I'm currently tripling bare. So that's the first time ever. ever since, yes, since Desert Storm, I'm now tripling there. I just want to that bear and I are both down to the S&P, which is the S&P up this year. I think the, yeah, about a little under 1%. So, and as all of our listeners know, do not follow us or we are not recommending anything, do not follow us and please don't follow us right now as we're under for the digits to market. No hate mail, please, you've been warned. So, at the end of January, into February, I'm slightly beating bears, so we'll see if that continues on. But to wrap up today's show, I wanted to do stocks on our radar. So, JMO, as we've been listening, Bear and I have been listening to you for over a decade now on the various podcasts. We love stocks on the radar. Obviously, I started the show by saying how one of your stocks on the radar, on your radar, changed my life and now is like 40% of my life. So, we wanted to end it with a traditional stocks on our radar. So, JMO, would you like to hit us with the stock? I love it, yes, sure. So, this company kind of rhymes a little bit with Axon. The company's called SameSara, and the ticker is IoT. And this is a company that I've recommended in one of our services few years back. And it promptly just started running. It really took off. And I mean, I think it hit somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 per share a little bit more than that. And it's really pulled back recently. But SameSara is a company that ultimately is mission to, is to increase the safety efficiency and sustainability of operations. What they do is they connect physical devices and operations to their connected operations cloud. This cloud helps companies manage all of their things that are connected on the internet of things. And so, I think the easiest, the easiest example would be like vehicle telematics. That's their sort of gateway drug. So to speak, is a big company, a trucking company, whatever it may be. You get this big fully of vehicles. And so, SameSara provides the cameras and technology to go into those vehicles to help drivers drive more safely. And then it kind of goes from there. They'll connect any all sorts of devices and operations within warehouse factories. But the idea is to connect everything that the business owns, the physical assets of the business so that they can keep track and monitor usage and whatnot. And it's an internet of things play, hence the ticker IoT. But this is, I think this is just a really interesting business that I certainly understand the pullback. I've always said with SameSara as well that valuation was the biggest risk because while the top line is growing considerably, they're still not profitable, right? And they are working towards getting cash low positive stock base compensation eats up a lot of the operating cash. But it is founder, run and led, Sanjit, Bishwas, Biswas and John Bickett are the founders of the company and they own a considerable slug of it as well. And I've just heard anecdotally from people, they've talked about this company and the founders and Tim Biers, if you guys know from the full, he and I were talking the other day about this and he actually had an opportunity to interview Sanjit this was a while back. He walked away, just very impressed. But I think that with this pullback, I'm starting to kind of take a look at it, it's SameSara and see if it's maybe not something that I wouldn't maybe want to add to my own portfolio. Music to yours. That's a good one. Yeah. That's So, So, Sorry, I was a company I owned for a long time. I think, Jouzi, you owned it too or do you still? No, I sold that. I owned it when we did, we did a deep dive on it. So, we looked at SameSara in 2024. It's probably one that we heard about originally from the Mali full. So, shout out to your company. It comes full circle. Yeah. Did you have a, are you want me to go? Yeah. You know, I could pick a number of things really. I guess I'll, I alluded to it a minute ago. I guess I'll go with C-limited. It's actually still a fairly new position for me. I was interested in it when it sort of went on a tear back in 2021 or whenever that was. And then of course, it got absolutely crushed when they ran into a little trouble. And really, righted the ship over the last couple years. And they are neck and neck almost with Mercado Libre as, you know, as far as companies outside the United States that I pay attention to. And we're talking about 20 billion plus in revenue, which is almost as much as Mercado Libre. I sort of, you know, look at the metrics for these two companies very much in tandem. It does sort of surprise me that C-limited seems to be trading at a discount to Mercado Libre. I mean, they're both, they both look really good right now as far as neither is expensive. They're both C-limited for sure as pulled back, you know, 15 or 20 percent. And it was, it had pulled back at the end of last year too. So it's, it's really in a nice place right now and looks, looks pretty attractive. The best part about C-limited is CEO is force Lee. And the amount of puns that you can make about don't miss the force for the trees or something along those lines is just endless, which is obviously gets a premium on our show. I have a lame response. My stock of my radar was going to be Mercado Libre, just the opposite of exactly what you were saying. I think it's consolidated over the last few months. It's an incredibly strong company that has not had the run that many others have. Its valuation is still stretched. I mean, it's a Ford PE is 34, which is not super high. It's Hegg ratio is about one, which traditionally is a decent indicator. It passes the snap test easily. It's revenue from advertising is growing at a huge pace right now and has a lot of opportunity ahead. I just think it's a safer bet in kind of a sea of despair right now. Now it's going back to how we start too about kind of going back to MagSaturn or some of these big companies. Mercado Libre fits that a little bit, but I think it still has an edge and it has the mode. It has outside the US, I think is probably a plus right now too. And still the leadership team there has been there for years and years. That's mine. I've actually an addendum to our portfolio review. I added to Mercado Libre as well this month. That's one that I'm watching closely still. And I still have my sea limited position from five years ago. Exactly even now. So that's been a big five years for me. I have zero dollars. The company is doing well and going in the right direction. Any final thoughts for the episode before we do wrap up. Okay, final thoughts. This is the first time you've ever asked that. It was a good episode. I think highly of it. I wanted to make sure your thoughts. Well, I'll just say thank you so much, J-Mo. If I may call you J-Mo. Jason, you've been a great guest. We appreciate you spending the time with us. If there's anything you'd like to say to our listeners, please feel free to do so. Well, I've been again. I really appreciate you guys having me. This was a lot of fun. I always love talking shop and you clearly y'all are as enthusiastic about investing as I am and we are the fool. I guess I would just say I know right now these past couple days have probably been painful for a lot of investors. Trust me, the more you go through these types of stretches, the easier it gets. This builds up your mental toughness as an investor. And I remember very well going through the great financial crisis as an investor. And I just was like, my God, but it was a wonderful experience in that it just made me a better investor. You learn to not get too emotional, understand these things come and go and it's never a straight line up. Take advantage of stretches like these, take advantage, take some notes and let it make you a better investor. Well said, yeah, I would second every bit of that. As someone who kind of cut my teeth on the molly fool and the boards and solves board, I think that learning by doing is really the only way I can ever imagine anybody doing the investing thing for themselves. And it's totally a worthwhile endeavor if you're so inclined. I always say investing is easy or as difficult as you want to make it. And I mean, I know some people say investing is not easy, but yes, it is actually. If you're working for a living, you have a job and they give you an option for retirement plan, just have that money deposited into your retirement plan, put it in the S&P index, I'm going to just keep on living, right? Just check back in 30 years, but just keep doing that. That's as easy as it could possibly be. Now, if you want to make it more difficult, you can go in dabble and individual stocks like we do. And you can even make it more difficult by, you know, option strategies, whatever. So, you know, there are all sorts of different lanes you can choose, figure out which lane works best for you. And if you feel like it's just too emotional, man, get some money going in that S&P index fund and just let it ride. And that is just one way to really help keep your emotions a day. And to be clear, I own shares of an ETF as well, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. And it's just a way for me to protect myself from myself, right? From getting a little bit too cocky or thinking I know it all, I've always got that ETF to fall back on. And it makes me feel a lot better. It helps me sleep at night. Yeah, I didn't even mention that the SNP 500 fund is actually my largest investment. And it's certainly if not for that, you know, the negative year would be down more. But just think about the people who are SNP and chill. They're listening to this episode wondering what we're talking about. What's this devastation you guys are talking about? People with their time if they're not stressed, they're not checking every three minutes. They don't read every axon conference call. I mean, I just can't identify with them. I played it for my kids putting them to bed for a while too. It gave me an extra time to listen and my, okay, one more story. And then I promised we're wrapping up. I, my little one, I was like, okay, go choose a book from from Daddy's closet, whatever you want. He pulls out Rick Smith's book. So I had, which I obviously have read and have. And I actually read it to him the other night. Way too little lasted about half a page. But again, we live, live, sleep this. So, okay, I'm going to jump in and do wrap up. Jayma, thank you so much for being here. We great. I failed. I felt it wrap up. We appreciate you being here. We can't wait to have you back. Thank you for just helping us through our investing cycle or investing life. It's been really a pleasure to talk with you today. Well, thank you for the invitation. It was a real, real pleasure to join. And happy to come back anytime you all have me. Thank you. Take care, everyone.