Episode 12: Portfolio Tailwinds for 2026

Hey guys and welcome to episode 12 of Shooting the Bull Pod with Drousy and Bear. Bear, happy new year. Happy new year man. I've been saving up one of my famous intro to the pods for weeks now so I'm really excited to unveil it. But you know that old Joe Kennedy story from he knew it was time to get out of the market in 1929 by what the shoe shiner was telling him and giving him stock tips. I guess the famous like if you're getting stocked up from your cab driver type thing. Correct. So I think the modern day version is I'm sitting at a family dinner over Christmas and the word polymarket came up probably about seven times and people were giving tips on how to play polymarket for lack of a better lack of a better verb. Some people were betting on things in East Asia. Some people were betting on sports. Some people were talking like we've talked before on hedging with polymarket but if there was ever more of a sign of the times of maybe we're getting a little frothy or maybe the focus on investing has kind of shifted from investing to predicting. I think it was my Christmas dinner. That's pretty great. I can't yeah I can't imagine what my aunt would have to say about about polymarket tips you know and I mean and it really you know 2025 was the year of kind of exploring and maybe loosening some of our investing thresholds to some extent. So we're coming off a year that was 17% if folks didn't listen to our episode 11 kind of year end bonanza round table where we had three awesome guests on definitely welcome or definitely recommend go back and listen but 17% and a lot of kind of name chasing we've we've kind of done some stats for listeners and just the amount of stocks that kind of outperformed greatly and got demolished were both pretty noteworthy. Yeah I was kind of thinking about that and we we looked up some stuff just now as we were we're talking before we started recording you know it's kind of interesting it's like what what getting demolished means for an S&P 500 stock you know it is kind of up for debate because it's like you don't want to lose to the 17% that the average did that's kind of bad and you know even if you're up 5% you definitely don't want to be down you know remarkably like I think I threw out some names like Lululemon maybe 45% down for the year I think Duolingo actually ended up about the same. All right I've moved over to my spreadsheet so I can be accurate about this get ready you know Novo Nordisk was down 41% let's see but really I mean not that many you know okay 45% losing 45% when the market goes up 17% is real bad that's that's devastating if you know it's a sizable position but you know I guess if it's a company believe in and you had a small like a 1% position now you're kind of thinking well maybe this is the the opportunity to add if you still believe right. Carmex Carmex was down 53% I never noticed that one but I haven't mentioned trade desk down 67 so oh okay trade desk yeah I haven't gotten to my like I have like a section for sass kind of like broken off so you know the trade desk 68% cheese at last year lost 33% which I was kind of expecting for a long time because they went up 85% in 2023 and I saw like I was actually held him for like a week and I was like this makes no sense I'm out you know and then it went up another 70% after I got out but I was just very confused it was not really doing that well under the hood of spot was down back to 2025 sorry hub spot was down 42% just absolutely sass darling yeah but again these are you know what do we name five or 10 maybe that were down 40% or more you know like I you know that that's bad that's really bad if you happen to hold one of those hopefully you don't hold it inside of course but but just the vast majority either sort of shredded water you know up up or down 5% up or down 10% losing to the market so we should talk about you know like that obviously that matters but in general like there's not like I just feel like maybe some people like the risk of holding at least an S&P 500 type company is sometimes overblown do you know what I mean like am I is is it just sort of my perception or just do some people just seem to think that like and these are but this would not be you or me but you know people that judge you or me yeah they would say you guys are such cowboys you know you're holding these individual stocks what do you know you know that the company could go bankrupt tomorrow and it's like yeah we can point to 5 or 10 out of 500 stocks that got crushed this year but for the most part you know it's not that risky to hold individual stocks it's not as far as like actual absolute downside right and and you make a good point too if you have a portfolio full of stocks and one of them goes down horribly you're able to kind of ameliorate some of that you're able to come back a little bit it's when we get into these ultra hyper concentrated portfolios that really is playing with fire and can be both good and bad and then if you don't have the guardrails of due diligence and research and understanding the company and the portfolio you're running you're really then playing with fire but there are a lot of guardrails I think a lot of people just assume trade desk down 67% anyone who holds that means they're down 40% and you know some people who hold in size certainly but most aren't I mean I can definitely vow jimless survivor but Jeff Green survivor and you know it's tongue and I probably underperformed the market again reminding folks I finished about 14% up so slightly underperforming the S&P but still not devastated and over a long run 14% I'm perfectly fine doing that yeah no I think that's that's well said and you know of course we're just talking about the downside because that's sort of what jumped out at me but think about the you know like to me the upside of individual stocks I mean you don't have to be too smart to you know avoid proof of that yeah I mean it's just a matter of of not picking the absolute wrong ones and then you know having some winners in there I mean Google was up 65% these are not like a little known again I'm kind of trying to stay mostly in the S&P 500 here but like I love it was up triple digits Palantir was up triple digits these would you know those would those would not have been my picks to hold in size all year because they were kind of expensive pretty early on and maybe even to start the year but others you know plenty of them plenty of stocks were up again if you just stick with sort of even the megas you know Nvidia as you know up 39% you know like I already said alphabet but really none of none of them you know now Microsoft Apple Amazon and Meta we're all up but not they all lost to the to the market average thus in P500 average so that's I know in Tesla too so have you seen the campaign calling Andy Jesse a financial terrorist it's one of the funnier ones out there actually have not seen that and I and I think some of this kind of plays into how we've maybe even taken divergent portfolio paths recently you have added positions you have a far greater number of positions than classic bear sort of five six years ago kind of that hyper concentrated SaaS portfolio and now you're kind of seeing the merits of smaller positions which is something that I think I've been very high on and very supportive of and maybe even now doing the opposite yeah yeah I want to talk about that some like so I guess where I was going with all of that about the the merits of picking individual companies it's really it's I see it as a trade off and you know there are times when you know all of the companies I was named you know you could you could probably pick a reasonable handful of 10 or 12 stocks from the S&P 500 as long as you had some you know some some large ones some maybe you know as long as you were just a reasonably diversified like you probably wouldn't stand a huge likelihood of having gotten crushed where the market did okay now you might underperform a little bit you could you know Microsoft underperform a little bit no big deal right but but what I'm starting to feel is that you know the first of all is a trade off and when things so I sort of mentioned the two of the two of the 100% plus growers Palantir and apple oven I wasn't on those at the beginning of the year I was actually I had sold excuse me I had sold apple oven and I you know I would never have touched pounds here at their evaluation so but the point is wasn't on those the other there there was a micron was up like 200 and something percent this year that's never a company I've understood um Robin Hood I held briefly but not for most of its gains it was up to 200 percent at the end of the year so all of the huge winners were not the obvious ones to me and so this gets back to the tradeoff thing to I have I have gotten to a point in my investing career where it's not just concentrated portfolio is the only option if I've sort of been learning this through you know talking to you and through other you know 2022 was a big lesson but just in the last few years since then I've kind of been learning that I don't really need to just go like concentration doesn't have to be my mantra like right now we're not quite at the portfolio discussion time yet but I have a I have a 20 20 something percent position in just the the VOO some P500 ETF and all of my individual positions are much like you know they make up you know whatever the cash is my you know they make up 40 something to 50 percent of my portfolio individual stocks but you know I don't feel the need to double those the sizes of those just because I you know just because I could I'd rather like I said put a decent chunk of my money and the S&P 500 keep some in cash for like when the rainy day comes but like I'm trying to keep that down I don't I don't want to run I've never wanted to run a 50 percent cash position as a as a long term thing that's that's supposed to be temporary if ever that happens and so so but what another part of this that you know it's just kind of evolved for me is I used to think that owning a one or two percent position and something was just kind of pointless unless you were just very early on and about to build it up into something but no mention what your wife said about a one to two percent position yeah but my wife totally called me on this I was we were just talking about like you know she listens to the pie jazz she's our number one fans she she was you know heard me talking about my portfolio or something and she said you know you've really changed you're used to say anything under three percent like what's the point and while I still kind of get where I were old me was coming from you know I honestly think that like now there are so many more positions that I have felt I wanted to dip into I wanted to like you know test the waters so to speak that I've just ended up you know taking a small amount of profit on and getting out of and finding another one and and that sort of back and forth has that churn led to a lot of my profits for illustrious so you know somehow I was up 39 percent for 2025 that's fantastic man and what's crazy though is you know I had so the stocks that I had that just went went nuts in a good way from the start of the year to the beginning year for the for the company we're like credo and apple oven and iron and nebius I think I'm either flat or down on all of those because I didn't buy it at the start of the year so you see what I'm saying it's like there's no way my portfolio can explain the gains I had unless you count the trading and I really think that's kind of my special sauce these days is you know getting into you know these little positions and doing a lot of rowing you know a term that some you know people have used on the Motley Fool basically talking about like you know sometimes you just let the market do the work for you sometimes you have to do a little work yourself and and so that's sort of where I've come down so I'm my question is you know obviously that's not your method but what do you what do you think about that in light of the whole conversation about like you know people are a little too skittish of of the average mid cap large cap stock see I mean I I think it's a perfectly good strategy and I think it's overlooked by a lot I think the one thing that worries me and I struggle with is that taking these 1% positions in companies I'm interested I often lose sight of a broader strategy so before I I realize I have a 1% positioning curiosity stream 1% in Roku 1% in Palantir 1% in all these others and they're all kind of I mean and for the record I'm out of curiosity stream in Roku but all of these like little names that sound interesting but in doing so I've kind of focused on the the trees instead of the forest and next thing you know I have 10 1% positions in fast growers with no overarching strategy over over you know putting too many chips in one industry or one basket and I sort of have lost sight of what I was going for and then you know you start the calling process you bring it down and that's sort of where I am now I've sold off quite a few of my smaller positions I had 23 positions at the start of 2025 and I ended with 17 so I've sort of been going a little bit of in the opposite and curiosity streams long gone what the company might be long gone too so yeah I might just be the first step of that Roku's gone there's a few others yeah I remember you selling some stuff yeah so trade desk no not quite yet trade desk is gone yeah trade desk is I've officially sold out I've I've made stock novice a little happier as I should have followed in his footsteps long ago but yeah and we can talk more about that too but I've put some of that towards shift for position which we can talk a little bit about but I just think I lost sight of the strategy of it the the merit of 1% positions makes a ton of sense it's just the you know next thing you know I have four positions in crazy like connected TV ads and I didn't want that and I that's not where I think my mind goes that's not my excitement for the future none of that passes the snap test I so there's a lot of wrong going on but I do think it's a very good strategy personally I'm on a path right now within video at 37% so I'm quite concentrated and taking a little bit different of a path trying to maximize some of the gains here and play a little bit more on offense rather than defense I love yeah from everything you're saying it's exactly what you said a minute ago it's like we're we've taken opposite directions because you had a lot much larger before than I did you know number of stocks wise for a long time like maybe as long as we've been talking and and now we've completely flipped I mean I don't know that I'm I don't think I'm over 20 positions now I'm like I mean like I'm we're actually probably have met in the middle I'm probably just under 20 first 20 positions and so are you now so that's kind of that's true but the but the other thing I think you're about to get into is the large positions or where you want to focus a lot of your time correct that's I mean I was making some of these calls and I was getting it right which is you know I would say my batting average is maybe slightly above 50% so here I am and I'm just not maximizing the right calls I'm making and not getting enough gains from them and meanwhile I'm spreading out these unstrategic moves on smaller so you actually so you actually want to concentrate a little bit more into your mid size positions precisely that's if you're not so you're talking about like shedding the tail and then like maybe balancing you know the what's left instead of having a longer tail that makes yeah yeah precisely I I want to try to beef up those mid positions in companies that I truly believe in and understand and feel confident in rather than spreading out small bets into companies that I'm intrigued about and I do a little bit of that too and I'm still trying to move very slowly but I'd rather and Google was a great example of this in 2025 I I was blown away by Gemini I was blown away the numbers the narrative couldn't have been worse so rather than taking and keeping my 1% position Monday I took all of that and just threw it to Google and yeah now that's a top 7 7 top 7 spot and I think that's my lesson going forward I think 2026 I'm going to continue to probably concentrate more it not I mean it's hard to concentrate less or concentrate more when you have a 30 36% position in video but I think I'm going to try to run maybe 10 positions that make up probably 90 ish percent yeah I like I like that until a little bit on opposite I mean people I think people know what you mean right you're you're you're not going to concentrate more to Nvidia obviously but the middle the middle you know I've known times where you're you know six to seven largest position was maybe 3% because it was all at the top and then you had a long tail and the tail didn't really mean anything other than you were interested and now you're getting along more you know do you think that this that these two directions make perfect sense for the the ways that you and I are different because like you are pretty much 100% invested well you know with the money that you want in your portfolio anyway yep yep yep you're not you're not holding cash in your portfolio now you also have a full-time job so you this is this makes a lot of sense for you you're you're you have money coming in um you have you know you you have many more years before you know that you have to live on your portfolio yes and you're ancient yeah agreed okay I wasn't going there but uh no but me on the other hand like you know it makes sense to I have the time to like you know dabble with this this trading in these smaller positions also you know like I have to do this to to honestly it's it's you know to keep myself from from always just saying no to things I don't understand it's easier to say no than to buy a 1% position and then manage it but I need to do that for like my my health as an investor you know and so yep and and then of course I'm going to want to keep some cash to sometimes take out a little bit live on so so that's such an evolution too I remember you know when we first started you know talking every day several years ago the conversation was often I can't find anything I've said no nothing meets my criteria and now 1% now small positions and see how it how it goes and tweak and tailor and that gives you more surface area to trade around to boost these returns which I'm actually really jealous that you almost tripled my returns which as folks knows that is my number one driving force in life right now is to triple your returns which I almost did two years ago but last year you demolished me well that's yeah that's well said and yeah yeah I really I feel like this has been an evolution and I have figured out that like I mean so there's I would still say I can't find the absolute slam donks that I felt like I found years ago and that's another reason to do it this way right I mean now I have a few that I like quite a bit you know like I have almost you know high single digit almost double digit position in rubric and you know there's a couple others have I've reached high single digits or even low teens recently but but as far as that being the case all the time like I've just seen a reason to force that you know like sometimes things look like a really big you know opportunity and sometimes you just don't see that and even the positions that you have and you like you know I'll take Mercado Libre I have Mercado Libre I like Mercado Libre do I think that you know it's about to go rip to 4,000 you know double no I really don't you know I just think that it's a really good company I think that growth is really good I don't see any reason for the market to re-rate it I think the market has settled on a place where Mercado Libre is rated you know and then the geopolitical risks may or may not play into that but so just in general you know like I just don't see any reason to to have 15-20% positions and things when I don't see that absolute slam dunk that frankly like let's be honest we just 2017-2018-19 that was that was just a great time to be alive you know it was just too easy yeah correct so yeah that's that's kind of where I'm going with this and we can talk specifics so I'll I'll let you give any 25 25 thoughts that you might want to have or or kick it to your portfolio it's a pick up one thing that you said too about Palantir and app 11 and these these ones that are of hundreds of percentage I mean we didn't catch them early however you didn't have to catch them early to be up 70% or 60% I mean the narrative on these stocks were already there the numbers were there and now again if you liked Palantir and didn't mind the valuation the numbers were there app-loving numbers are video game numbers as we've talked about so they were there so all you had to do is pick up some of it and I think that's what we did on app-loving in particular we you know we saw those numbers we saw it getting slaughtered so we bought in the 350s 360s and we're up a good amount right now and it didn't take us being early or right it just took us finally getting over ourselves and maybe lowering the threshold and avoiding the biases the anchoring bias of you know it was at 600 and now it's at 300s broken or I could have bought it at $20 and now it's at 350 and just sort of diving in and you know it doesn't always work but some of these names especially where the numbers are just so ridiculously good I think that's a really good kind of indicator and the odds are in your favor right by by doing that yeah totally and that's that's kind of closer to what I'm comfortable with is like you have a you have a company that you like you wait for the valuation to come down and then you load up I don't know how loading up looks a little differently than used to I guess but but in general like that's that's the playbook and I'm glad we got that opportunity that's that's one that I feel like I did sort of play traditionally the interesting thing is that Amazon which was up let's say or point no 5.2% for the whole year I it was probably one of my most profitable positions because I just kept buying it when it whenever it fell 10 or 15 or 20% and then trimming it as it went back up and and I did that as many times as it dipped in and rebounded in in 2025 I'm not doing that with Amazon anymore but that's kind of the idea yeah and that's really I mean when you look at Amazon over five years it's up 90% or something it's underperforming the broader S&P you know loud and e-commerce and all these amazing verticals and yet it's only 90% which you know I've held completely throughout and don't intend to ever sell a share but you played it completely right we had the tariff tantrum in April sorry the tariff tantrum in April easy time to buy you bought the best company around that you knew was going to be around no matter what happened and you traded and I mean that worked that worked and this wasn't some small micro cap this wasn't catching the next to stair labs before anyone has even heard of it and just a bunch of engineers talking like this was just you know amplifying the stable company yeah and I think you know back to my point about the companies especially S&P 500 companies I'm just using that as a proxy for large-ish companies or very large companies they're just they're just known as inherently risky as some people would think I mean you can get burned for sure but in general like if you're I just I don't feel super scared to buy anymore and I'm trying to you know it just increases sort of my my knowledge of the market to to be a little bit more open to different names and the Amazon's not something that would have been interested in years ago because it's not growing like crazy but there's other things besides you know like there's like there's the growth and value are on a continuum right and you know you can pay too much for a company that's growing 100% you're over here it's possible and you could just picturing you like yelling at the Amazon truck as it goes by when you weren't interested or you at like the grocery store and everyone else has gone just e-commerce at home and you're you're yelling old man at the cloud yeah this this is the this is the very mature Amazon this is not the yeah I think if I was if I had been around and in 2000 you know investing out 1990 that would have been do you think it might it might it might even it might be in scary in a different way right like I don't know I think we would have bought I'm gonna I'm gonna yes but well I think I would have well no I think we both would I think they would be small 1% positions and would we have held it throughout I mean I think maybe I mean you probably would have traded in and out a bunch but maybe over the long period you would have held the majority of the time I think I would have held some of it assuming I don't get bored after a few years but um now you might have you might have just held every share and that it would be your your in video wouldn't even be your story yeah you would be the Amazon boy instead of the Nvidia I would love to be the Amazon boy yeah yes yeah his new wife on his yacht yeah um why don't we do why don't we do um portfolio kind of review let's talk through our holdings kind of to start the year right and then um you know it's probably a little early to do actually actual kind of percentages other than I'm hoping to triple you this year although listeners as although you guys can't see us right now bear and I are both nursing coughs and you should see us in between takes of just drinking tea and coughing off the mic so we're doing this for the for the love of the game well I'll be really quick about this um I'm just gonna give my current allocations because there's no point in trying to like say what's changed since the end of December it's not it's it's it's the small stuff his his you know been shuffled as you know but S&P 500 position is up to 25% of the portfolio and um you know I'm I'm obviously that can go as high as 100% and I wouldn't it wouldn't be like a like a allocation concern it's more of a it's it goes back to the tradeoff idea and I just feel like right now I there's not I can't find enough that I'm comfortable with the position sizes that I could have 80 or 90% of my portfolio and individual stocks I mean I like my from top position is rubric it's a little under nine percent I like that I feel comfortable with that I would not feel comfortable with rubric at 20% I just wouldn't so uh next this hinge health and Mercado Libre all those are between five and nine percent um then you got your sort of a sterile labs and credo that I'm kind of just in both of those oven Monday and Nvidia all of those are between two percent and five percent um you know but yeah I didn't know if I had I think I had mentioned to you that I had gotten back in in Nvidia but it's actually bigger than some of the smaller ones because this is kind of the Amazon thing right when Nvidia's you know sort of what do you call it um you know when it's sort of hitting its temporary lows or it's it's recent lows not lows in the in the grander sense but you know maybe accumulate a little little position I'm not going to be the drowsy of Nvidia because there's only room for one for you exactly but yeah that's part of the part of the rowing and then other positions I'm rowing are below two percent but uh I still got some root iron see limited exon nebius and I just bought a avertive position mainly because I wanted one I'm really just looking for things to do to row with and that was a John rotante stock so I was like you know what it was down like six percent the other day I was like let's just uh let's play with this a five percent five point five percent I'm not sure if I said that right before but um thirty percent cash and um yeah I mean I just feel pretty good about this allocation now I would the cash is I'd like to get that down even lower um and you know I may just go more S&P but surely there will be opportunities and and yeah I would like to put that into some individual companies too so we'll just see how it goes that sounds great I mean I love this shout out to Jero and an AI infrastructure play I think both of us talk about it all the time and uh we just you know maybe it's a tad bit out of our wheelhouse it's a little bit different of a company different of an industry of actual heavy industry of actually building things that aren't software and aren't involved in chips uh or directly involved in chips but I like the play and it's interesting but I'd like to learn about them because I mean I still don't understand a stair labs and credo and you know those are those are close to four percent positions and like you know I've got Nvidia I've got iron and and nebius like I don't think that any of these are I think I think vertive and maybe some others that I haven't found yet or haven't really looked into yet probably deserve a place in that sort of you know however many I don't want to let this get to like half my portfolio but you know these are all pretty small positions and like this is an important trend and we've talked ad nauseam about it but I want to learn I want to keep learning sounds over to you uh so um I am still running about the same concentration as I've done the last few months uh Nvidia is now a 35% position for me um I'm gonna take a sound a little tangent real quick I I thought so a few days ago you asked why do I hold such a large position in Nvidia what's the rationale what's the reason um and you know I did a bit of soul searching and I think there's a few different parts to this I think the first is um the the actual leadership of Nvidia the company in all the industries that are changing the world so rather than try to diversify into smaller parts of this AI universe that maybe are unexplored maybe have a lot of growth potential I think just buying the leader here and knowing that it's a good bet it the odds are in your favor with it make a lot of sense in having an oversized position number two Nvidia is kind of diversified to some extent they're making investments and all these other AI startups that they the GROC 20 billion licensing deal they're diversifying their offerings to continue to be that leadership position which again saves me from making tough decisions and maybe even somewhat uneducated decisions by expanding into some new technologies and terfs that I don't really understand and then the third one is the leadership obviously some of these companies are new and have upcoming leaders that may one day be the next jensen but there is only one jensen so those three things really hammer home why I feel mostly okay with such a large position right now um we'll see if the narratives change we'll see if any of the numbers changed at CES last week jensen I guess it was this week by the way time stamp we're taking this on Friday January 9th but jensen earlier this week said that the demand of 500 billion is probably too low and the demand is actually going to be higher for the product so all of those kind of little bread crumbs make me feel okay about holding such a large position um number two is axon at just under 17% we've had a nice little run over to start the to start the new year I again I think big things I think the selling from last year is done for axon I think people are kind of shaken out of it and sold for tax harvesting and now it's all about earnings and making sure that the strategic direction is going in the right way after acquiring some companies that kind of were a bit of a head scratcher so a lot to prove but it's still still what I'm obsessed about after all on the roaring kitty of axon um then I have crowd strike at 10% I have Amazon at just under 10% I have Mercado Libre at 8% and then kind of the cliff so the cliff falls off I have Microsoft at four and mastercard at just under four at Google at about three and a half and then I have a new kind of holding so I'm I've taken what is a borderline top 10 position it's probably 11 11.5 12 and um shift 4 payment and and I'm trying to play this a little bit differently I've actually taken a leap position which is not my normal the last time I did leaps was in 2021 with crowd strike and now it's a 10% position for me so that worked out well on that one but I know it's pretty out of my normal and I just I just think there's the odds are in our favor for shift 4 to be valued right now as a completely destroyed company but it's not and I think because it's undervalued and it's being ran off in an industry that's been slaughtered the payment space has been horrible I think there's some opportunity for it to surprise the upside and I'm not sure it's the compounder I'm not sure this is a I mean it's market cap is about five billion I'm not sure if this is a ten billion dollar company or a hundred billion dollar company one one year but I just think I think there's the odds are in our favor and going with kind of the 2025 2026 resolution of if I have a feeling and some conviction to make it count it's a three percent kind of leap position so there's some upside potential here and I've chosen kind of the option route as if this is a bad call I can get out and still be generally fine so I'm going to keep it about there some other tiny positions I still have z-scaler I still have c-limited I still have a sterile labs I have nebius and that is it for me in terms of positions and those small positions I'm going to keep about the same I've been adding to sterile labs recently just it pulled back the numbers are great AI all ships or whatever all high tide raises all ships so I feel pretty good on that one that's probably one I'm most likely to add or continue to add to and then just hoping hoping that this kind of concentrated somewhat diversified top five in particular Mercado Libre Amazon cross-strike axon and Nvidia offer the upside that it did two years ago so underperforming last year really it was not fun but 14% is no slouch and the previous ones we were up in the 40s and 60s and 90s so I'm hoping we can return back there yeah awesome I was that you preempted my question which was going to be of the of the little positions which one would you most likely act add to so and a sterile labs makes makes a lot of sense I have a thing for engineers I can barely understand so what's the smallest of those like of the of the tail nebius which which I kind of debate on this frankly because nebius has insatiable demand for the thing they sell and they're at a great point in the ecosystem of providing surge space to companies that literally cannot get enough of and are building nuclear reactors to try to support just crazy I like that a lot I maybe that conviction and storyline doesn't match my what is a 0.5% position in it so maybe it's a little bit like if I feel that strongly about a company that has this high growth potential maybe it should be higher maybe this sort of starter position seeing how it feels maybe I'm not maximizing the potential gains because I do feel some I mean I do think there's some pretty high conviction and I see the path forward on nebius after you know hand up you and I hated these companies still I mean and still question maybe the long term vitality but I yeah that one kind of keeps me up because I think there's something more there and certainly plenty of good investors are making unbelievable amounts of money on it so I don't know if like 0.5% is the right sizing for something like that what do you think well for me I haven't had any I wanted to say like I haven't had any luck building it up I mean obviously I can do what I want but I haven't convinced myself I should say to build it up for very similar reasons the way I sort of frame it to myself is like you know I'm no longer trying to put you know to find the the six or eight best stocks that I can and put you know 15% in each or whatever but like I am trying to like have my portfolio pretty much in the best stocks I can find it's just the ones that are in that less than 2% allocation bucket I'm not sure if I like I'm not sure about if root is one of the best stocks I can find I'm not sure if I was looking at my 2025 let me go back to current the iron nebius I won't I won't say this about axon axons and axons relegated to this bucket mostly on valuation right now but and friendship that's the that's the reason I have it at all no vertive you know I don't know that these are the best companies I can find and that's why they're in this place in my portfolio so I think I think what you're saying about nebius is I don't know and I think it's only right that you should allocate more to the ones you're really convicted about and you know shift tours on the tail end of that and we'll see yeah but then certainly google and you know I know you added to amazon or you added to moccata libre and like those are that's a different category than than nebius not you know not that you know it could be maybe you could smooth it out of it but I think it directly what you said makes perfect sense to me because you know you have to have room for yes no and I don't know and and I don't know and maybe we're both growing but like I'm willing to own but I'm not willing to own in size yeah no that's a good way to think about too I mean and we're sort of circling around the same like conviction levels should equate to the percentage in your portfolio but that kind of I don't know and and I mean it goes to the trial period too yeah interesting I didn't knew I wasn't even framing the whole that that kind you can kind of sit to summarize the whole spiel I've been on by saying you know conviction still matters it's just a matter of like realize that you don't have to have 20% conviction in something at all times and in anything much less you know four or five or six or 10 stocks I mean yeah you're probably not going to have that at all times and so what do you do with the rest of your portfolio do you buy a bunch of one in two percent positions do you have a little bit of cash do you have a little bit of S&P 500 ETF and I've said yes to all of the above yeah yeah yeah and that makes sense I may I think we're I think we're pretty well positioned kind of to see what happens I I feel pretty strongly about some of the tides that we're seeing the AI the AI trade is just continuing on I think we're well positioned to maximize gains you own at least five or six that are like core AI plays I own one but it's like I don't know half of me as a person so like I'm as tied to it as possible I'm basically like a humanoid so I think this might be a good a good point to kind of pause for I guess stop for this episode we have not bear and I talked about this a bit I'm not going to give a full road map but we're really really excited about some of the stuff we have coming up we have some really cool interviews coming we have some really cool ideas we're trying some new stuff so I'm pretty bullish I would take every sound like a total killjoy I didn't know hold you back from feel free to gosh about everything we have coming I was just like I don't think you need I don't think you have to give us an opsis about the you know syllabus for the year yeah and well and like the guy hold me like I'm but hold me back and you're like I'm not even talking to you we don't tell you're the good time yes seriously we have some really cool stuff coming up and we're we're working pretty hard behind the scenes on it so I'm pretty bullish on another amazing drowsy bear year I would probably give us a six percent maybe seven and our three whoa I mean ten percent position in us yeah it would be a high conviction plays what I'm getting at so it doesn't rise to the level of an axon but I don't think anything could when you find perfect oh this is when you're so I'm your number three position is that what you're saying I get some video and axon and then and then our our endeavors yeah don't tell yeah don't tell my number one and two yeah kind of well happy new year bear happy new year to everyone we got a lot of fun stuff coming so definitely stay tuned