Epic Heat Check

[MUSIC] >> Hi, seniors. Welcome to the P.G.S. >> Hello, listeners. Welcome to Geo-Political Cousin. I'm Jacob Spira. That was my three-year-old research assistant. Yes, we are bringing you your fourth episode this week. This time we welcome on second cousin, Matt Girkin, one of the three Musketeers. We recorded this yesterday. Afternoon Thursday, March 5th, we're putting it out afternoon, Friday, March 6th. Also, Hamidra Azizi, Iran expert over on the Jacob Shapiro show as well. Crazy times out there, hoping you're enjoying all the content. Share with your friends, leave us a rating, lead us a review. Hope we all have a good weekend, LOL. Cheers and see you out there. [MUSIC] >> All right, Cousins, Musketeers, we are back at it. Do we want to start with a moment of silence for Christy Nome? Bye-bye. You're fired. The celebrity apprentice makes an appearance in the Oval Office, any jokes, anybody got some? >> I think Trump should have liked milk this, like in videotaped it, made it like brutal and awesome in a room. He or her and homin, and it's just like tension builds. You're fired. Homin, you can go back to your office. >> Or better yet, it should have been like a special episode. We have a special guest and then it comes in Senator Tilles. >> I've been waiting to do this for three months, Ms. Nome. Okay, here's how I thought we would start, because I am constantly trying to pick holes at our own arguments. We recorded just two days ago, Cousin Mark, I can't even remember. We said this was not World War III, but in the interim, we've had Azerbaijan hit by Iranian drones. I've seen some Iranian government suggestions that it wasn't them, but Azerbaijan has been hit their mobilizing. We had the US Navy knock out an Iranian frigate in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sri Lanka, which was there at the invitation of the Indian government for exercises. So India is not super happy about that. The number of countries that have been hit by Iranian rockets, we can add Turkey apparently was able to shoot down a missile, but you can add Turkey to the potential target list. You've already got the UAE cutter. I don't have to go through all the countries in general. Jordan, Iraq, Yemen, everything else. Is this spiraling into a regional war? Should we be worried that our old sort of, "Hey, this is going to be a three-week layup, and it's not going to extend beyond the main actors, because that's what happens in geopolitical conflicts that goes away?" Then also, we should just say that the timeline of the war, even in the last two days, has expanded. It went from days to two to three weeks to four to five weeks. You have Politico reporting some folks in the administration and take some folks with a grain of salt that they're prepping until September for this to continue to be going, which seems like nonsense to me. But all of that cuts against our thesis right now. So I wanted to throw it back at both of you. Either of you getting nervous, either of you blinking at your assessments, or do you think this is just all part of the game? Well, I have to say it's kind of, for me, I've been a little bit more alarmist, so I'm nervous looking at the opinion polling. That Trump's going to try to. I mean, I think he will. He has to back out. His polls are suggesting he's got to do the taco thing. He's got a deescalate, etc. Most of the issues you're highlighting are sort of the reason why I've been saying, "This is going to get bigger before it gets smaller." It goes back to the fact that the Iranians have to assume that the objective is regime change, even if Trump himself isn't really committed to that, or even if he doesn't really believe that. Yeah, and I've always had a view that President Trump is going to capitulate whatever the consensus is. He's going to do it in six times faster this time around. And so you can accuse me of being super sanguine. Certainly, by every previous crisis we've experienced, this would mean that you want to be super optimistic about this situation. Like what I just said sounds incredibly sanguine, but I'm also on record being like, "I don't think this is just about Trump this time." He's not going against the Prime Minister of Denmark or Canada on some trade negotiations. This is about the other country and their survival. It's not about their access to Greenland or their access to American markets or access even to critical semiconductors to the long-term viability of the claim to superpower status. This is about Iran's surviving as a state. And because of that, I do think they are incentivized to prolong the conflict, to kind of illustrate to the US. Even once President Trump says, "Oh, it's over." Maybe they do want to take an extra week or two or three of pain. And that's where the drone thing comes in. And I think that's just the most critical thing of all of this. I think Jacob, it's interesting that you were prompted to ask this question because of a rocket to Azerbaijan. I don't care. No, I really don't. I couldn't care about a single building. I want to be very hyperbolic here just so that people listening can kind of like test the thesis. But I really don't care about Iran's ballistic missiles at all. Like at all, zero care. Like I think they're not an event. They are not an event at all. And I don't care that they're vulnerable. And I don't care that Israel and the US can bomb them. All I care about exclusively from a perspective of global relevance is that I don't think anyone can convince me that even a failed state Iran, you know, looking for its keys in the rubble, even that Iran, I think, can close the streets of Hormuz. That's my concern. And my concern is there's an asymmetry of military technology that people just haven't wrapped their minds around. They're like, oh, but look what we're doing to them in Tehran. Look at their, the posity of their ballistic missiles. They're not hitting anything. They're like, they're, you know, any of the, they do, they get intercepted. Yes, but I just don't think you need that much know how to shut the streets of Hormuz. And I think that was kind of the message of the mini podcast, Jacob, you and I just released. With our good friend Ed, who is a tanker expert who did agree with my assertion that we should take the Yemen and the Houthi example. We should take it. We shouldn't ignore it. We shouldn't just say all, well, it's different now. Americans really mean about opening the streets. So yeah, I guess I'm a larmist too, you know, like, you can, you can add, I know you're deliberately excluding the other capabilities. And I know that the US has a lot of ability to to warrant those attacks, but the one today, the tanker off the coast of Iraq and Kuwait, that was a small little boat that came up and just slapped an explosive onto it, which was always, you know, that was their old technique. And so they can, they can do a lot of surprises. And that's even excluding the drones. And your point, I think maybe is probably more important, which is that the drones are the big new game. But well, and I think, I think the overall point is that the media, the news, President Trump, Israel are focused on like, we can fly over Tehran and kill whoever we want. They can't really hit much with the ballistic missiles. It's all good. The market's like sick. But I think if you're a ship owner or you're like a captain of a boat, you're like, okay, cool. I'm glad you guys are flying fighter jets over their Ministry of Education. But I don't know if I can like sail over there. Number one, my GPS doesn't work because you're spoofing it. Number two, like my buddy captain just got almost sunk in Kuwait by a zodiac boat, you know, like, and then I can't see the drones. So also, I don't know if you guys talked about this when you last talked, but you know, the one of the things about the straight-of-formos, if I think pretty much everybody knows this now, but it's very narrow at the part where you can actually move the ships through. And so the maneuver that they have to do is a very routine maneuver. Their actual navigation route is extremely constrained and they have to sort of bend around it in these two lanes to and fro, which means that the targeting is very simple. It's a, like, it's very hard for, you know, for these, for the Iranians to open and wide expanses if they're getting hit by Americans because they can be spotted. But when they have such a narrow navigation route, it's actually the constraint falls on the shipping rather than on the attacker. Yeah, and one thing, sorry Jacob, just one last thing I want to say. I think obviously I'm the godfather of fading geopolitical risk. Like we get, I've become a meme on this, you know, people are like, well, geopolitics says do it. Look, okay. However, when the Somali pirates can do something and the Hutis of Yemen can do something, you know, we should kind of like think about that a little bit. It's in this case Iran does have a logic to extend this. And I concede that the United States of America can use punitive attacks against Iran to then eventually, you know, force them to cry on call. What's the difference between Hutis and Iran? Hutis are comfortable living in, you know, medieval real estate. Yeah. You know, so you're right. Like Iranians have a much lower threshold of pain. I think I said that correctly. Right. Lower. I mean, maybe, I mean, they've had a high enough threshold to deal with sanctions for how many days? decades now and now they're getting pummeled to me to steal your point from last time by the great and little Satan at the same time. Like there's a rally around the flag sort of a hundred percent. I'm trying to make a case. I'm trying to make a case against myself, you know, like, yeah, well, no, it bothers me though, because you know, the background and we talked about this on Tuesday too, Marco. Like there is now, it's not a drumbeat, but you had that report that Rubio and Hegseth are at each other's throats and that maybe Hegseth is cool with boots on the ground and that Rubio is not cool with boots on the ground. And you've got even guys like Ian Bremmer saying, well, maybe the US is going to seize cargilot or maybe US troops are going to go and secure as much of this energy infrastructure as possible, as leverage over the Iranians. And if you control that, maybe you have a better chance of protecting it from drone attacks or from some of these other things. And now you start spinning into a much deeper conflict and then it goes with the reports of that. We can go a hundred days. We can go till September. I mean, I don't, that's still not my base case. I'm still sticking to my guns, but as I look at the play by play here in the next step, I mean, unless the Trump administration is going to do something like that, then you guys are right. Then it's sort of game over, right? And then it's just about when do the Iranians want to stop versus when the Americans want to stop? I think we're at that point. It's really when they agreed to negotiations and it was significant that Trump said that Mochitaba, Kameh and I was unacceptable to him because for those who were looking for Trump to back off quickly, that was an opportunity. He's not doing that. And the other thing was the Israelis trying to take out the assembly of experts, like the mechanisms that exist in the regime to create a succession. If you think that you were going to do a Venezuela playbook and you accept what's left of the regime and you just change the personnel, well, then you have to let the succession process operate. But that's not the signal we have so far. And then finally, if there's anything to this Kurdish thing, which I don't think the Kurds are just going to leap to doing what America says, but they might have a historic opportunity to take some autonomy. And the US president did call the leader of the Democratic Party of the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran. So he is talking to them. That's a regime change kind of behavior. That's not something you can easily talk about. They might be twisting themselves into a pretzel you can't unwind unless you eat it. Did you think of that one before? That was clever. No, it's nice. Like in the moment, baby, in the moment. But it's also why we should be concerned about this Azerbaijan thing. Marco, I don't want to yon it this because I mean, what, roughly 20% of Iran is a zary. I mean, I'm not saying that it's one, oh, because 20% is a zary, they're going to welcome in Azerbaijan as conquerors. But I mean, Azerbaijan has a serious military. They just whack the shit out of our Russian-backed Armenia, which is not that much in the green scheme of things, but they've still shown their teeth a little bit. They've been friends with the Israelis for some time now. So maybe they've got some nice fence tech technology. And sure, the Kurds, I mean, even if the Kurds moved on that, and I don't, I agree with you, man, I don't see the Kurds really doing that. They've also been betrayed one too many times by this administration to even think about doing that. And I see Azerbaijan saying we will respond to the Serrani and Drona tech, and we are mobilizing troops on the border. And you think about all those millions of the Zaries that are right there on the border. Like now I'm starting to sit up in my chair a little bit and entertaining that was I really too flippant when I said this wasn't, I mean, let's not call it World War III, but I mean, I saw one guy on X, I'm sorry, I forget who said it, but this feels like more of a Gulf War than either of the two previous Gulf Wars. Like everybody's actually involved now. Yeah. Yeah. And I'm going to tell you guys, what is Iran's strategy when they, you know, attacking everyone, right? I would I assume is that they want to create a, a fear factor and an economic cost and forced the Americans to backtrack. And so that's why they strike in every direction and they raise threat. But you could argue that it's been very stupid of them to get to offend the Pakistanis and the Azerbaijanis and the Turks and everyone all in one go, you know, not to mention the Gulf, Gulf Arabs. So I just want to say one thing, I really want it to be hyperbolic and focus on drones. You know, I just, I just want to keep bringing everyone back to that. Like I can't, I can't tell you how important this is. The reason I scoff at everything else, including like the true Gulf War, which you call it, let's trademark that, that was brilliant. Well, we will start selling the true Gulf War. Let me explain something. This is really bad. You need Baghdad Bob if you're going to sell mugs. Oh, yeah. Can't sell them with our Baghdad Bob. My point is that, look, people talk about Middle East as if it matters. It like doesn't, you know, it really doesn't. What matters is the hydrocarbons that exit the straight-off removes. That's it. You see what I mean? And so, and so the reason I say all these are interesting scenarios, but like even a super wounded, invaded Iran, if there's one faction that can launch drones in the straight-off removes, like, then you know, the straight could be shot for a decade. That's my point. Like, so whether it gets invaded or whether it doesn't, they can still be this capability, no matter how weak Iran is. But to answer your question, Matt, this is why I think they're doing what they're doing. I think that the reason they're attacking absolutely everyone in the region is that they're trying to illustrate to the rest of the world that they are willing to go down, swinging against everyone, you know. So if they launch a ballistic missile into Turkey, it's like, you know, they're trying to tell Turkey, call your congressman. Yeah, it's called America, you know. But really, which, yeah, yes, they have a few. You know, like, and that same with Pakistan, same with Azerbaijan, it's, it's, look, we're serious about this. We're going to do something about it. The only country that I think, the only country on the planet that I think has an interest in Iran becoming a field state, even if it causes the world to plunge into a recession, is actually Israel. Like for Israel, I can make an argument for why like 24 months of like a deep economic pain is like, okay, if this thing is taken off the map, you know, uh, uh, and aggressive Iran. And so like, if I was Iran, I would actually not be throwing any, any ballistic missiles in Israel. Like, you know, you've already, like, they're already committed to the part. You need to kind of alert everyone else in the world. You mean business, you're being as essentially threatened and you should try to call the Americans to back that off. Yeah. But there's two things I want to say to that. The first is Matt, I think it's a good question. And I think this is where, um, maybe the pitfalls of the reason Iran is still resilient or starting to come in because it was very obviously a top down strategy decision to bomb these other countries. But the United States has killed all the leadership and Iran is this multi layered, uh, what is, come around always call it a Leviathan, murky spatial Leviathan. I forget what come around calls it, but they've delegated authority to local commanders. So there probably isn't central authority right now. So you might have, I mean, I don't know if this is true, but I would infer from that that the local commanders are like, okay, well, the strategy was set. We've lost contact with the Supreme Leader and leadership council. Sure, let's hit Azerbaijan and let's hit Turkey because the whole strategy was, let's cause as much pain as possible. And then these folks will want to sue for peace and they will respect Iran again because they certainly didn't respect Iran post, um, the spanking that they got in the 2025 war. But how do you stop those guys that there's no body to tell the local guys, hey, like don't go after Azerbaijan, like what are you doing? Turkey, like leave Turkey out of this. We don't need to mess around with the Turks right now. Just focus on the Gulf. I worry that nobody's raining them in and market to your point about Israel. I think another thing we should say about Israel, um, you're absolutely right that they're the only ones, um, with this, you know, perpetual instability in Iran. I'd also just point out like I think they're hydrocarbon discoveries themselves. They're offshore natural gas, um, discoveries also allow them to do this in a way that even 15 years ago they wouldn't have been able to or a lot of Israel's existence. It was all about importing commodities in order to keep the economy going. But now they have, I mean, natural gas of their own, not that their energy self sufficient completely, but they can take it on the nose. They don't care if the straight of war moves is closed, right? Like it's actually Egypt and Jordan or it's anyway, you know, I'm stretching. Israel will have a recession too. Like it doesn't matter. Like Israel could be bathed in oil. And if the straight of war moves causes a global recession, just a global recession, you know what I mean? Like, my point is that like let's imagine a scenario where Israel didn't have any hydrocarbons. I would say they would still like that is how well like important this issue is for Israel uniquely like the end of this regime is almost like infinite like whatever infinite pain. Before all is upon Israel, I think that'd be cool with it. But you are right. Like this does enable them to be even more cool with it. The rest of the world though, I think like nobody really cares that much. Israel does and God bless and for it. These guys in Tehran have been saying like, Hey, you shouldn't exist like jokes on you. You know, like, yeah. So no one knows, you know, whatever we solved. Check, you know, we understand Israel's logic. The thing is the entire planet has a different view. Yeah. Even the United States like you would think Matt. Yeah. Yeah. I want to ask you then like so, so let me ask you this question then and I feel free to vibe however you want, but like. Last year President Trump is on the lawn of the White House and he drops the first ever presidential F bomb, like public F bomb, where he says, basically I don't know what the fuck people are doing, he means Israel. Because Israel did not stop the attacks against Iran when he thought it should. He was clearly mad, didn't buy the regime change story, you know, and then December, he starts talking about supporting the protesters. January, Venezuela goes great, he's like, yo, yo, let's go. What do you think changed? Was it just like Benjamin Netanyahu was just like constantly DMing him, like slitting into his DMs, like, yo man, like, you know, it'll be great though. Yeah, yeah. Like what do you think changed in those eight months? Because I don't see Iran having become more Iranian, you know, like more like annoying well, it look, and I mean, you're probably like, you probably had this thought, but it's the domestic unrest. I think what happened is they became vulnerable and it was a critical vulnerability. And with the succession looming, the unrest bubbling up, Netanyahu could make his claim a lot more effectively on more persuasive land Trump. And he could say, this is the opportunity. If there's ever going to be an opportunity and you criticized Obama for not taking action during the so-called green revolution, this is the moment. So if you're going to do this, you know, I realize it's inconvenient. I realize there's a midterm election, et cetera. But this is about your legacy. This is about the United States. And he could have brought to bear or someone could have brought to bear the arguments also that Trump is already effectively gridlocked in a lame duck. He can't pass any laws this year. And then that's going to be worse after the midterm. He has a negative 15% net approval rating. Like someone could have made the point, listen, your legacy building starts now. And this is the opportunity for long term American interests to reassert hegemony over the region. It whether that was Netanyahu making the whole argument or a combination of deep state elements and Netanyahu, you know, I don't know. But I do think we have to pay respect at this point to geopolitics because there's something about the fact that the US just has the capability to intervene. And so no matter what Trump ever said and no matter what half of his maga base believes or any of the criticisms, the US had the capability to intervene and there is a power vacuum. And so they took the opportunity. And Iran showed its vulnerability, which made it even more attractive. Like 2025 was maybe too easy. Yeah. Yeah. And I think that goes also with Israel's other operations like against Tess Bolah. Like it's just it was a house of cards. And you know, some people thought that I think you probably thought that Iran was a house of cards prior to all of this, but not very many people did. And I certainly didn't. I thought and I still think Iran has some hidden strength or something that they're going to, you know, be able to reveal. Trump. Yeah. Yeah, drones. The point is, but the point is that this, this moment was a historic moment for those who believed and we have basically two nationalist movements in Israel and the United States right now. And they did believe that Iran was capable of being a nuclear armed proxy of Russia and China and dominating the region. Others can call that paranoia, but that's what they believed in the opportunity emerged and so low and behold. So I hold on. I think you guys are dancing around something. And I think I'm uniquely suited to bring this up because if either one of you brings this up, you'll be accused of something you don't want to be accused of. First, let me just read from this 2017 New York Times profile of Jared Kushner, quote, "Back then, Mr. Kushner was a high school basketball player, LOL, a Billy Joel fan, a quiz manager, and no one's guess to become a negotiating partner with Mr. Netanyahu. But unlike other students on the trip, he knew the prime minister who was friendly with his father, a real estate developer and donor to Israeli causes. Mr. Netanyahu had even stayed at the Kushner's home in New Jersey, sleeping in Jared's bedroom, a teenager moved to the basement that night." End quote. Here's the question. What the heck does Israel and Netanyahu have over Trump? Because to your point, Marco, last year Trump is saying, "I don't know what the fuck you're doing." And now he's burning whatever is left of his legacy and legitimacy and everything else on a fool's errand in Iran. What is the geopolitical logic of getting involved if you're the United States with Israel to go after Iran in this manner? It does not make any sense to me. It's uncomfortable for me because you're seeing the proliferation of all of this anti-Semitic imagery online, the Netanyahu and the Jews are controlling everything. But here's the part that we get you guys in trouble, but can't get me in trouble because my name's Jacob Shapiro. Even I'm like, "Yeah, I don't get it." I was Israel pulling the strings here. I want to be able to talk to them the fuck off. I want to be able to record. And he was going to go in with them. I want to be able to record here. Matt, you don't have to answer this. I want to be able to record and say it's a coincidence. You should never speak about it. Yeah. Well, look, also, Jared, we went to Jared when it came to Iran. Jared, challenge you to a one-on-one game of basketball if you're listening. I'd love to see. Love to see your game. He may not be listening to Jacob. I'm sorry to say. But look, the only thing I have to go in on though is that, you know, there. Again, it sounds farcical now to say this, but what the movement behind Trump believed was that, well, America had status anxiety because of the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia and the perceived loss of influence in the global South and potentially at least in the Middle East. And this status anxiety produced a nationalist government. Nationalist government looks around how can we reassert American, you know, will in the world? And they pick low-hanging fruit. They pick regimes that were hostile to them using angry language, relying with Russia and China and had already devastated their own economies. So in a way, it was, I think, especially within Israel and now with Iran, I think the mistake might have been that they had success in Venezuela so that they got heubaristic and then they took on something a lot more dangerous. But it's not as if there weren't people telling them, "Hey, Iran is a totally different game. This could be very messy." It's just that there is a deeply embedded belief in the United States that the open-door policy is the grand strategy. If the U.S. cannot open doors in any particular region, if we don't get access, then that can become a regional empire and then that could be a Eurasian block that controls the Middle East. So whether you think it's crazy or not, this conforms with a really blunt geopolitical outlook on regional empire building. So yes, okay, let's pause there. First of all, Jacob the title for the podcast, I just thought of it. The epic heat check. Because you know, vast reference to Venezuela being successful. Basically, you're talking Malik Maun, driving out of bounds. Malik Road? No, I think you're talking about Isaiah Ryder. We need somebody a little crazy. Yeah, like, you know, basically boom, makes a shot and then comes down to the core and is like, fuck it, logo three. So that was what it was. It's Lance Steven. Lance Steven. The U.S. is Lance Steven, he checking. Now here's the thing Matt, everything you say, you know, you know, this is what we do for a living. We all come from the same school, you know, hashtag God bless George, you know, like, we, but, but I just want to say something. When you've got the United States of America, the president tweeting, he's going to issue insurance to boats, to ships. When you've got the president of Ukraine, Zelensky saying he got a call from Trump to like get some anti drone. Oh, you know, what I'm getting at here is that guys, this was a fucking heat check and they walked into this unprepared. And I'm sitting here and I go back to the hoodies of Yemen, the drone thing and I'm like, it was staring at all of us. So like, I get it. You're angry at Iran because it's mean. It's allied with China, got it. You know, Israel, you know, through Jared Kushner had influence, fine, cool. And God bless him for that, you know, they wanted to destroy the regime. But how can you as defense of the defense of war, not defense of the Department of Defense, but Department of War, sorry, as Marco, it's now the Department of Special Military Operations, not the Department of Military. But as that, how do you not like game plan, the very obvious thing we all knew would happen, like Iran will retaliate against the Straits. And the reason I say this is that if I'm correct and some other people who are like obsessed with this are correct, like we're going to slide into like actually 1973. Yeah, it's a big, it's a big one. I mean, this is the big oil shock. This will usher in. This will usher in the most thorough democratic party sweep in American history, not necessarily this midterm, because I don't think my view will be articulated by that. But like by 2028, bro, like you'll better be learning how to tie those red handkerchiefs around your necks, because you know, I've already learned how to do that back when I grew up in Yugoslavia. Well, it's interesting you say this, though, because that's why like I, it almost gets kind of mystical. It's like political philosophy. It thinks coalescing in a way that seems. like a zeitgeist, but it's like the United States has not had a generational change in our leadership, but it's happening in 2028. It's not happening now. We have octogenarians. And these people have apocalyptic visions and they're going out. You know, they're exiting earth. And they think earth is exiting too, by the way. And you can apply this to Kamehnai too. Like Kamehnai and Netanyahu and Trump and Biden for that matter. These all represent this like you're fading from earth. And so decisions need to be made now, because otherwise it's the end of the world. You don't. And I'm just saying that generational change is reflected in this nostalgic, nationalistic movement, rising up, America's going to play at old school as if fucking Patton is the president of the United States. We're just going to hit him where they aren't. China's given us a problem over here. We're going to punch Iran in the face. You know, Matt Jacob tried, bro. Like he tried to get us from getting canceled by one group of people and you just walked us right into the baby boom or fucking bus sub and well done. Like, well, hey, but I'm, but I mean, there is something to it. But but the point that you have to also fit it in with is, so I'm just saying all these things coalesce. Everyone's always looking for one cause or one solution. But what it has something to do with Iran being recalcitrant and pursuing a nuclear weapon in the missile program in the region. Israel being apocalyptic, having been attacked and you know, having all these successes that they keep building on militarily. It has to do with China and America's anxiety about not matter anymore. How can China, how can the United States reestablish hegemony and have a stranglehold on the world commodity supply? You know, it has to do with all these things happening at once and it's effectively a generational crisis before the next chapter. You know, it's people who are on their way out attempting to affect fate and leave a legacy and entrap their children into a future that they designed rather than a future that they think that they don't want their children to be locked into, which they think is luxurious or corrupt or whatever. Maybe you're right, but I guess the problem I have with that and maybe it's maybe this is actually proof of what you're saying. Like, they went after the top fruit at the very top of the pistachio tree. Like the low hanging fruit was not Iran. This was like the hardest thing. This is the last thing that you should have done. He just, you know, you, you, you, you punched Iran in the face last year and told everybody you obliterated the nuclear program. You had a wonderful operation in Venezuela. You've got Delci doing whatever you want, marching to the beat of your own drum. You've got Mexico killing drug cartel guys because you put the pressure on. You've got Cuba coming. You, you were able to say face and get something out of this Greenland deal and you really showed them that. You're going to have your US China deal and claim all of this credit for it. Why in the middle of all this? With the midterms coming and everything else, are you going to go after Iran? Like maybe after the midterms or something like that. You stacked on a couple more of these things. But to your point, to have a heat check, Marco, you usually like on NBA jam. You had to hit three in a row. Yeah. Before the ball started playing you through the net. Like he didn't hit three in a row yet. He hit one and he was like, let's do the hardest one. Like why? And to do it in such a non-prepared way, this is what I'm saying. Like if, and, you know, like our regular listeners, Matt, no, I don't have TDS, right? So like I've defended many of Trump's foreign policy operations over the past 80 months. My point is like, it's not that you can't defend this. You can, you can. But to not think of the obvious retaliatory tool that Iran will have, whether they have indoor plumbing or not. You know, like this, and that's where I think, that's where this may on surface look like reestablishment of American hegemony. But under the surface, it just reinforces what many countries have already been doing for the last 18 months, which is planning for world post-American hegemony. The United States of America got walked into this because of a heat check, because of Jared, whatever. You know, a kind of health or scalter like Yolo, let's go. Let's see what happens, shoot from the hip. But then you don't plan for the consequence. Which again, we're not there yet, right? Like, let's be clear, we're not there yet. But if it turns out that those traits can be interdicted much in much cheaper and weaker ways than we suspect. Like, holy shit, the rest of the world's going to be like, you know what? I guess we need arc aircraft carriers. Because if you're going to use them so irresponsibly, we're going to have to use them for our interests and so on and so on and so on. Right. Yeah, that's, I mean, it's interesting, though, because the thing is that the powers that suffer the most from this are the ones that the Trump movement resents, like Europe or China. Whereas the powers that benefit are like the United States or Russia, right? So if you're a commodity-based traditionalist, like religious movement that loves your nation and wants to remind everyone that you matter, then you like this war. But if you're, you know, if you're like a commercial cosmopolitan trading society, you're like, whoa, guys, you're, you know, you're, you're going to create a dystopia. You know, what are you doing? That's a great fucking point, Matt. No, no, let's print it. Let's just book it. Yeah, no, I'm waiting for Leonidas to come on and say, this is Sparta. Like a space, yeah. No, we should pause that. We should pause that. Now, listen, I've had that thought too, Matt. But it's interesting that Trump has over the last couple of days. It's almost here, just stands my charge against him. And so he's out there tweeting, the United States Navy will continue to guarantee, like, shipping in the world. You know, he's getting ready for his meeting when she, you know, like, yeah, he wants to be like, ah, ah, ah, yeah, you're like, your ships are transiting because of my power and benevolence. But like, those ships got a transit brother. Otherwise, she is like, thanks. Right. So it's funny because he is not embracing the moment the way you are, like, illustrating it. But he might be days away from doing exactly that. Well, and also there, as you guys always know, there's a difference to in Trump and the movement. Like one thing that I'm emphatic about is that it was a nationalist movement. It was an emotional movement in the United States that emerged. And Trump was riding this wave. But people, and I've argued it over and over, people put way too much stock and Trump himself. But this war is the best example of how nothing Trump ever said mattered at all. And by the way, Obama said he was going to get us out of war's too. And he didn't, right? And it goes back to the fact I had this chart that I would show that was military spending as a share of GDP, very simple. But I would, I looked at other countries that for US for long time is like at 4%. You know, and I looked at other countries like that. And it's like Pakistan or Thailand. Countries that are ruled by their militaries. So the US, so it's the Spartan aspect of the US. It's not the whole part. The US is an amazing country because it has both the Spartan and the Athenian aspects. But the Spartan aspect is the one that's predominant right now. But I would say not necessarily the type of zeitgeist that would be identified with the Deep States though. Because I think the Deep State would not endanger global trade because there isn't like a elite consensus within it. The Deep State is not captured by like nationalist right leading, you know, but you're describing this as being. We all know who's captured the Deep State. Don't we? Aren't they the ones with the interests in their eyes? Actually, I'll tell you what, now I'll put on that. We're not touching that Jacob. I can't stop it. I can. No, you can't stop it. No, I'm, I'm inoculated. Vaccines, they're great for lots of different reasons. [LAUGHTER] No, but look, the Deep State, I think this is what the Deep State was doing for any of those bureaucrats that are very important, like essential, everyone relies on them, but none of us know their name and they work in the CIA and the NSA and, you know, whatever department of defense. I think what they were saying is the US has a long-term interest in reasserting control over the Middle East and preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And we especially have an interest in rolling up this Trump movement into a ball and throwing it at Iran, rather than letting it invade Greenland and destroy NATO. So to me, there could be a game of distraction going on with the-- So in other words, imagine a president who just simply cannot evade reports from defense planners, from army planners, from Navy planners, from everyone pointing out, hey, this is a critical vulnerability in Iran right now. We need to do something about it. And it's just unremitting. Yeah. Sorry, it's not the Trump is detracting with Iran. It's that the Deep State is using Iran to detract their-- are, you know, like-- are the lesson president who's like, I want to go there. What about Iran? But you know what, again, again, I just don't understand how the planning was so poor if this was going to be a long-term war. That's kind of what-- I mean, have you seen who is our Secretary of War? It's not very hard for me to imagine that the planning wasn't very good. Well, OK, but also-- and honestly, this is a question. But you sort of refer to this earlier, Marco, because there's your hyperbolic point about drones so that the strait can be disrupted for 10 years. But the other point of view is that the US can use ungodly firepower to just annihilate the entire coastline, you know? So in other words, they can disrupt the strait for longer than anyone expects right now. But on the other hand, at some point, the US can just pulverize the entire thing. No, no, that's true. The thing is that the mathematical equation that balances those two realities is going to spit out some number of how long it is that Iran is going to do that. I think it's an extra week. Right. But you guys both accused me of not of setting their paint threshold too low, which is fair. Fair. I was comparing it to the kutis, you know. You're right. What if that threshold is not that low? What if it's higher? All I'm saying is the worst case scenario here gets us to a global recession. And I think it's curious to me that that's what we walked into, right? Like without presenting that as a risk to Trump. But hey, this happens. This is how these things happen. That's why we have global recessions. No, but I think that's actually, I think that's a really good point to bring us back a little bit because Marco, I'm still at the same mind. Like I'm exploring the idea that I might be wrong, but I would be very surprised. This is going to go on for more, I mean, two weeks is sort of my max, but I would be very, very surprised if this was going to go on more than two weeks. In part, because if this goes on more than two weeks, I think global recession is too soft to term for it. I mean, we're talking about global, I don't know, you want to call it depression, crisis. I don't know. It's going to be really, really bad if it goes on more than two or three weeks. And you sort of alluded to this like, at what point are we past the point of no return? It's not some arbitrary date or something like that, but what has to happen for us to look at this and say to ourselves, this is going a different direction than we thought. There is no taco. Trump is doubling down or Iran is tripling down or like the straight is going to be closed for a year. What are you both looking for that will tell you we're in that universe rather than in the taco? Well, a couple of things. To my knowledge, they haven't even tried to attack the Abkak refinery, which they struck in 2019 as their sort of signal that they are that they have a real capability. That would be one or the East West pipeline. And you know, this is an open above ground, of course, pipeline that you should not be hard to sabotage. So I'm just saying once we get, because you could argue that the taco is still possible as long as there hasn't been permanent damage done to the structures in the region. But once you do the permanent damage to the structures, then we're definitely having a recession. And now America is super enraged in going to pursue now your way steep in blood. So you might as well go all the way and destroy the regime. Yeah, to me, it was Iraq. You know, Iraq has just shut down one of its pipelines due to storage, lack of storage capacity. But you know, like, what if we start seeing sabotage there? That's something that I've always focused on, particularly Bostra, if the Iranian linked militias in Iraq start threatening things in the country much more seriously right now. They're kind of flying some drones above the green zone, which is not really that much. Also I think rhetoric just sharpens, you know, severely. And President Trump starts doubling down, as you guys have talked about, on all this conversation about arming different groups and so on. I do think a lot of that is just planted PR, you know, CNN, CNN carrying a headline that Kurds are going to be armed, like, come on, bro, like if you know, if this was serious, they would have been armed six months ago or maybe, or maybe not. Maybe we're, we are that useless and incompetent as a country. But I do think that was planted there so that the Iranians can read it as well. Right. That is still negotiations. I think you want to look at concrete stuff that, as Matt says, they can't be taken back. Also why have the, here's one, why have the shea, why have we not seen shea attacks in Bahrain or in Eastern Saudi Arabia? Or, you know, like, there's some levers that Iran hasn't really pulled yet or they haven't, I mean, it's not like Iran didn't have time to plan and it's not like Iran's cells, you know, militant cells in different countries haven't had time to plan. So either we're about to start seeing that kind of stuff or the Iranians are convinced that they don't want to go that far because they think Trump is going to back off. Well, and one of the first things, I mean, the Saudis did this on day one. They had the pictures of the, you know, armored personnel carriers and everything rolling across the bridge into Bahrain. So I think the Saudis are like, uh-uh. This is where we're going to, we're going to put a pin in this right now. So you've seen a little bit in Bahrain, but I think Saudi is like ahead of you there and that's where they're, their strategy or at least their tactics went immediately. Yeah. And then that would, I guess, send us back to Iraq then as the big signal as to whether this becomes a region wide conflict. It's the only place where Iran still has, I think, you know, obviously, Hasbola is Hasbola and Israel is going to, I guess conquer everything up to Beirut. Well, I'm shocked Hasbola is still in the game. I thought they were gone, but now we're getting reports that they're deploying to the south and, you know, Israel, I mean, there's like 100 dead and Lebanon so far and they're telling people to evacuate Beirut. I mean, yeah. I mean, a game changer though, a step function difference would be Iraq, you know, and it is still the only part of the real state in Middle East that you can truly say is control by Iran. Also, what a world in which, what a world in which the most stable country in the Levant might be Syria. Who would have had that on their bingo card two years ago, right? Go back to like the, again, the saga that you guys have followed. I mean, there was, there was an Iraq that acted as a bulwark against Iranian expansion. The Americans took that Iraq out. Then the Americans had to try to negotiate a region settling deal with Iran. The Americans walked away from their own deal. Now destabilizing Iran itself, well, the problem with that equation very clearly is that Iraq was never fully fortified, was never fully stabilized and has not to this point become the type of state that you could rely on as a bulwark in the region. So now from below just stand to Lebanon, it is just a complete shatter belt and a complete power vacuum. Matt, I want to go back to something you said that caught my eye. When you talked about the sort of glorification of the American military and the militarization of US politics, it's funny. I had a British client who was asking me this question earlier this week and he was afraid to say anything negative about the US armed forces if you're getting canceled or something like that. And I just wanted to gut check myself on this, but I reminded him that in the 1970s, it was okay to talk shit about the American military. Post-Vietnam, I mean, sure, there were parts of society that were still like going to support the military, but there was a very strong sort of anti-military feeling in the US culture. Like just go from, we started, we make movies like Apocalypse Now, but then you get into the 1980s and 1990s and everything flips and it's all about support the troops and the nobility of the US military. So I guess the question, I wanted to gut check myself on that cultural change and to ask you both like what you think the cause, if I'm right, what is the cause of that cultural shift? And is that something we could see shift because I don't know, like it seems to me that something has changed in US culture towards the military and it's one of almost slavish adoration of the troops and what they're doing. And the Pentagon and the Department of War is pushing this. I mean, when you look at what I know we're talking about Trump doubling down in the rhetoric, Higgseth's already doubling down on the rhetoric. I mean, some of the things he's been saying about unleashing, you know, everything else on Iran. You can't get much more strident than he is. So I don't know. I just wanted to throw that at you, Bo. Well, I have a whole story about this and I think you're right to bring up the Vietnam era because I think that really is the original sin for the United States. It's just that's where the polarization comes from is that and I'm back on the boomers again, you know, but it's it was a generational trauma that, you know, those, and by the way, I wasn't really, I wasn't actually criticizing the military earlier. I was really talking about the structure of the US, but I see what you're saying. And look, they, some of them were getting spat on and called baby killers, right? Even though they were just serving their country. On the other hand, what ended up happening was those that were peacenicks joined the universities. They joined the media. They believed in an ideology that they could change American policy and behavior if they could change the discourse. And then meanwhile, and they, and they, they treated it as an ivory tower. They excluded conservatives progressively. Now meanwhile, the conservatives neglected all civic life institutions, social values. They just sort of went this route that was saying, well, it's all about the green, right? We're just going to get rich. And the problem is you have this, and you can see this with the boomers. It's so clear and Trump and Biden are just such an illustration of this. You know, one is like an institutional die through and through nothing but rhetoric. And then the other is just a, like lives in a house of gold, you know, King Midas type, right? And it's, it's this extreme division between those two. And I think the military was the only institution that retained some austerity and some values. And so Americans, and you can see in the Gallup polling, Americans continued to revere the military because it was the only thing that was reminiscent of the ideals that they believe that they all believed in. You know, now, you know, I'm not sure where that goes from here, although I would say that the Democrats best bet in 2028 is to get a white male veteran just because there is still a lot of reverence for the industry. institution and Democrats if they go down the route of you know socialist or woke or whatever I mean that could work if the economies of Shambles and everything goes up and flames anyway, but if if you're in an environment where there's an actual competitive race You want Mark Kelly you don't want You don't want another sort of woke French character You know I think we got to discuss one thing also since this is kind of Thinking about all the ways that we're red teaming this right like all the ways that it can go wrong and one of the ways that You know, I'm emphasizing is the drones. I can't get over Matt's comment That you know this when you think about the vulnerability to this I mean look if there's a global recession everyone's gonna suffer and I think the US is going to suffer the most Particularly because the problem in the architecture of our macro environment today is not your obs energy vulnerability It's over investment in private credit and private assets in the US like if you think about where when the tide goes out Who's gonna be swimming naked? It's gonna be mainly you know VC tech pros and a lot of pension funds that have invested in In that world obviously investors invested in that from all over the world, but that's where the epicenter of this is But who cares the point the math is getting at is really interesting when you think about The kind of emotional idea You know, I'm really taking this as as what I'm taking from this conversation. It's like Russia, US, the good you know energy producers will be fine You know and then energy consumers not find the spark to versus Athens Athens Some words versus the everywhere is kind of a you know like notion and the reason I think that's interesting is we got to talk about let them drink bleach You know, which president president Trump never actually said that like to be fair to say that he did no he didn't actually say let them drink Bear Leech you know like he didn't actually say like It is a fairly complicated set in structure. It's not normal for him to you know employ which quite that flower no, but like he What am I getting at like What I'm getting at is that you know president Trump has this incredible ability to taco everything and I again I hate the term taco. Whatever. It's really to land the plane, you know, but If and this was my concern about the tariffs and you guys know I was extremely sankuine about tariffs before after April 2nd Like didn't give a fuck and it was because like Relax, but on April 3rd. I didn't get a little worried and Jake could be going to pockets together about it And I was like look man like if this starts sliding into a global recession He's just gonna say like blame China blame Europe, you know, he's gonna then like triple the tariffs He's gonna go the other way Once you can't land the plane you're gonna crash his heart crash it harder in other words And so I think that in this case if this does go off the rails I can see president Trump leading into what mad is saying It's kind of a gut gut reaction. It's like very like You know primal cortex kind of a view Well, fuck him, you know like I never meant to secure a straight to for moves anyways We have enough oil And so that's the danger the danger is that if this does get out of hand You know, there is a case where this can get really off the rail That's what I would call that kind of let them drink bleach moment and since you decided to You know color this podcast Jake could be in a very apocalyptic terms like tell us how The relatively sankuine view can be wrong That's That's my take, you know, so that so I guess then you end up with just carpet bombing, you know The Iranian coastline, you know Well, I mean like the US still like and now actually I'm seeing something else Matt. I'm saying like Trump was like, where does he go next? No, no, I'm saying like If you're if you're solely the reason there's a global recession President Trump has this thing where he leans into it, you know what I mean like yeah, yeah And so the way you lean into it is you don't even carpet bomb you're like you know actually we don't care about the straight to for moves Hey China, why don't you come here and do something about it like this was our intention all along You know in other words your point is Your point is when you actually lay down who's benefiting the most who's what let's me put it this way Who gets hurt the most who still gets hurt but maybe marginally less initially He could actually lean into that and say like you know what it's not my responsibility to To control the straight of her moves. We get 2.5% of our energy from it Like well, you know what if you're up in China. I have a problem with it come here insecure It's that you know that that it's an interesting thought and that may be where the US military truly Sort of orders the president to sit down and be quiet, you know like in other words We're gonna break the straight of our moves so that we can fix it so that everyone in the world can know that America give it America take it away, you know, I mean, but we're not gonna invite the Chinese Navy to come in and be the new guarantor of peace in the Persian Gulf You know, I mean like if but it would align I agree with you that's like I see what you're saying, but it doesn't line neatly With the worldview you've laid out like in terms of like how this lines up from a kind of a nationalism versus universalism Sparta versus Athens some words versus everywhere is like look that would be the ultimate lean into that Maga camp to your point. It doesn't matter what Trump says. What is the What is that nationalist movement in America says? It's very isolationist and by the way, it's built on many false Views like the fact that America is self-sufficient with energy, right? Doesn't mean that the straight of her moves doesn't matter to America, right? Like you the three of us here agree with that But I can see the president of United States America just being like well, fuck it I'm just gonna lean into that view because it allows me to pretend that I didn't cause this Unknowing of its consequences, which is where we are right now Right, right. It's it's the shoot the hostage moment, you know Okay, well we have like about 10 minutes left roughly so and and you're right Marco I did frame in a little bit apoc I guess it comes off apocalyptic. I was really just trying to poke holes in our In our self assuredness because I was feeling a little bit of pressure But let's say let's let's let's first of all agree to come back here together as three musketeers on April 5th What do you guys think we'll be talking about on April 5th? Like what's your base case for what our conversation will look like on April 5 I mean I can go first. Yeah, please. Yeah, I mean, I'll look I think Trump is gonna taco like within hours and days That's my view and I think Everyone's gonna rally everyone's gonna be super super happy I think someone is explaining what we're saying right now to president Trump Like bro, you're gonna be guilty of a global recession, you know um And so I do think he's gonna pivot everyone's gonna be happy. All's gonna fall Mark is gonna rip and then Iran's gonna be like no That's what I think is gonna happen and I think there's gonna be a carnage further I'm very worried. I think that this is Substantively different from anything we've seen since October 7th 2023 In that you know, this is the first time the regime is Existentially threatened and Matt has really pointed out why the difference is Uh the protests against the regime Really made a big difference. I think both in the calculus of president Trump but also in Tehran So I don't think the day can do what they did last year where they were like okay cool. Thanks You know like let me throw some missiles at bases And so I do think that there's going to be a pretty violent Uh retort from Iran by April 5th. I Gone to my head. I think it's over I think the fact of the matter is that the United States America can carpet bomb Iran I don't think Iran wants to be a failed state Where some remnant of the regime acts as if they were Somali pirates The khutis of Yemen You know Do have different living standards, you know, you give them some cut to chew They're kind of happy Not to be stereotypical and I apologize to the khutis listeners that we have but I think you know that I do that out of Deep respect for your military prowess The truth is like I think that so I do think by April 5th. This is like Over that's my base case scenario However, I think that the probability that this tit for tat goes completely off the rails is the highest it's been Since January of 2017 when president Trump was inaugurated. This is the first time he's dealing with a regime You know, that is not just going to be like oh you've served the delicious dark. Oh Allow me to consume it Yeah, I don't I don't have anything to add to that. I think that was perfectly well said like that my my statement would have been The Iranians I think will get at least one lucky strike maybe two and it'll be a spectacular attack, you know whether it's a a refinery or something. And I think, and now we can sort of debate about their capability, but because in order for them to do that, they have to, they have to exploit an American oversight or weakness. It's very hard to do, but I don't accept the idea that America's going to have flawless execution in a war with this is much of an expansive territory and an enemy that's been planning for a long time to wage asymmetric war. And it doesn't have to be a missile or drone against up cake. You can tromp off for stock. Could they sink a ship? Yeah, yeah, exactly. It could be a ship. And it could be, and also I would say that it could be a, it could be a military failure like they sink an American military ship. And of course, that's hard to do, but it happens, right? You know, the other thing would be it could be a tanker. So in other words, you could have an economic cost or you can have a political cost. Jimmy Carter had both and got wiped off the face of the earth. But if Trump just suffers a military humiliation like an operational failure, it will severely damage him, even if it doesn't produce a global recession. But of course, the risk here is, is global recession. I want to make a joke about the Council of Experts announcing that they've anointed Paula Trades as the new Supreme Leader of Iran, because this is, I mean, this is what we're getting to, right? If the Iranians can control the straight-of-war mousse, he who can control a thing that has the power, that's going to get tested a little bit here. Jacob, and the, yeah, go. That's an incredible analogy, brother. You know why? You know why? Because in the Doon series, the Fremen control spice through disruption of harvester activity. But they are not a sovereign state. They're basically, you know, the Houthis. They are. And that's what I think we walked into this. And by we, I mean, everyone collectively Israel, US, the West, it's like we were focused on a wrong thing. Iran can't defend the Ministry of Education building in Tehran. Who gives a shit? And this goes back to my problem with a lot of the, you know, Maga thinking. A lot of it is very refreshing and new and sexy and interesting. But one of it is that almost everything that came before it was done by morons. So this idea, well, no other president ever had the balls to attack Iran was up. Let's go. And it's like, well, first of all, one of them did. And his name was Ronald Reagan. And he got the straight open in like two days. Wasn't it was a brain mantis? Well, yeah, but not like, yeah, but he was like, you know, like focused, like he wasn't regime change. That's the point. Right. That is the point. That's the problem. Is it what Trump got himself into is he accepted those who were telling him that America can operate this offshore strategy. It were the naval power. But he forgot that that means that then you don't try to destroy the regime on land or or or bomb them. God bless you. You know, offshore, you know, like gumbo diplomacy offshore balancing, but, but like a lot of the plane to land. And I just stand, I understand how regimes are different in terms of what constraints they can impose on you. When it swell up, I think that that's also an amazing metaphor, though, because with Venezuela, they went in because they knew they had Delcy, like go back to that that question that he got in the in the oval office where he was asked. So is there some is there a version of Delcy? I'm paraphrasing. And he was like, I we killed them all. Yeah. He said that. He also said that the next leaders might be worse. And he just today said that most tabas unacceptable. So he hasn't pivoted yet. Even though Marco, you're still making a really good case that he's going to and and I have to say again, I reviewed all the the polling this morning. I mean, from an American political point of view, he has to withdraw. He has why tell us tell us tell us tell us listeners the color here. What do you do? Okay, so net approval rating on all the major like foreign policy, immigration, and general net approval are all dipping from negative 10% toward negative 15% and net approval of economy is negative 15 percent. You know, and in fact, you can see this opening up even broader because of the direct, if you look at the chart, the directionality, it's looking like he's going to have a 35% approval on the economy. And this is an economy that's actually booming, you know, like like the economy's doing fine. So something is just woefully out of place here. And it implies that of course, then you can look at the support for the war, which I don't think is as bad as some people make it sound, but 40% support at the beginning and our friend Jesse Curry made a great point today. Remember that at the beginning of the Iraq war, it was 75% approval and then it collapsed. But this is 40% of approval at the beginning when supposedly it's like the GI Joe moment. So from those polls, he has to do what you're saying, Marco. And then again, the but the Iranians have to do it. They have to raise the economic cost regardless because they're actually speaking to future presidents. They're not talking Donald Trump. No, they got to update the utility function of the West. Remind us why no president has tried to eliminate the regime. Bomb them on occasion, calibrate the regime like sure. But there's a reason for it. And it's not because every other president was a pussy or stupid, you know, which is the callous argument of the Maga camp. Like no, because they keep shut down streets of her. It's like it's right there. And that also goes back to the point about hubris that there may have been an argument that prevailed and we'll find out or the New York Times will find out or something. Bob Bordwood will let us know. There may have been a prevailing argument that because of the energy independence and because of the the firepower that we can actually prevent hormones from getting blocked, you know, and that may have been the reason why they ultimately agreed with the Israeli approach because they thought that they were going to be able to and maybe they will. Maybe one week from now, we'll see that things are resuming. But again, I think that comes from political change rather than a military. I think it's ironic that it's ironic that most of us would have agreed that Joe Biden looked like the next Carter. Yeah. It's ironic that he may be Donald Trump if he doesn't lead the plate on this. So, you know, well, I mean, the other aspect of what you're saying, Matt, is and I mean, you really sort of have to start doing three-dimensional chess here. And I just don't think they're playing three-dimensional chess. But I mean, there is a version of this where the US shale industry was really hurting under low oil prices. And by doing this, if you have an extended, you know, an extended closure of the straight-up or moves, then US energy producers, it's going to be boom-town. The problem, though, I think, is you're right. Then you don't go to step two, which is that doesn't mean that the world is going to be okay. If you close the straight-up or moves, the prices are going to rise for everyone. And the US is going to be able to export. Including America. And then Americans are going to be paying higher prices. So, you're screwed in the first place, which goes back to, I don't know, your thing about polling. The polls told me he shouldn't have done it in the first place. If he was reading the polls correctly, he shouldn't have even gone at it. So, I don't know that a dip in the polls is going to say that now he should stop it. But maybe there's something in his head that he's saving the US energy industry by getting oil back up and he still can put the genie back in the bottle in two weeks. And it's like, hell, I don't know. Actually, I do think you're onto something there. So, there's two versions that there's the rubric that everyone we all know is that you don't metal with Iran before a midterm election. And Trump himself referred to Jimmy Carter when he first started talking about this. So, we all know that everyone knows this. But the alternative is what you've sort of pointed to us. Maybe he's already decided that, you know, he's on a trajectory. He's already shaping his end legacy. And it's, and he's really indifferent to the fate of the Republican Party in the midterm election. He's, he's trying to shape the Middle East and go down in history as a great president. Okay, I can't add territory. You know, I wanted to add Greenland. You're telling me I can't do that. So, I'm going to go and take, you know, take away the Iranian regime. The problem, of course, is you don't go down in history as a great president if you end up with a recession and a fireball. You know, and that's the, that's the real story of Carter. No matter how many people try to do the research and resuscitate his, you know, legacy, they can't do it because it ended bad. So, last word do you, Marco? It's a question. So, to you guys, I mean, should we start like practicing to drink bleach? I know. I, someone bests it or somebody's going to tell him that there's still time to try to salvage the midterm, salvage the Senate, you know, etc. Oh no. But look, look, oh no, you've Scotty doesn't know. Scotty doesn't know. Yeah, you have just, you have just walked into that one. Did you guys collude on that? Did you just, did you guys talk about this before? No, I don't, I have no idea what I walked into. Jacob's favorite gift/me. My favorite meme. Is Matt Damon from your interest. I'm hoping Smooth is going to splice it in right here. Oh, God. I don't know if you're familiar with that legendary piece of American culture. The Euro Trip? No. The movie? Oh. - Yeah, man, you're too sophisticated for that. - Yeah, yeah, sorry guys. - You can't really shoot a die. - I was reading Klaus what's, you know. (laughing) - Yeah, it's time for some American pies, some Euro trip, like you do. - Let's make sure it's spliced in right here. - I remember American pie, I mean, come on. - Yes, it's funny. - It's of that vein, it's not, yeah. - It's funny 'cause I'm the same as you, Matt. Like I watch American pie not the Euro trip. So I actually had to look up the meme, Jacob, to be. - You've never seen Euro trip? Oh my God. - I've never seen it. - But I knew about the song. And I just didn't know where Matt David's famous punk, rock anthem, Scotty doesn't know, come in. But anyways. - All right, well, we really have to mimic Bill Simmons for real here in the rewatchable Zero Trip. Watch three very intelligent geopolitical analysts, watch one of the worst movies of all time and see what pearls of wisdom they can generate. - It sounds like a Master Pancake theater kind of thing. - Yeah, it's really, it's really quality. It's up there. I mean, it's like American pie, Road Trip, Euro Trip. I mean, that's like a holy truck. - But that's how literally someone pitched the movie. They were like American pie in Europe. And Hollywood producers were like, fuck it, let's go. Like done. - That was the, that was the unipolar era. I mean, those were really the good times. You could make that movie in the year of our Lord. - Where the right people ran the world. - Okay, but Marco, I gotta go pick up my kid, but I'll say, I don't know that we start drinking bleach, but man, the prices of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, food, up. They stepped in here. And that's, and again, this is the same story. We're saying over and over, but like, you can't. Trump wants to, at some point he's got a deescalate and it's just not, I don't think it's entirely up to him now. - Yeah, I just, you know, the one thing I'll say is, if that does happen, if it is rising food prices, like every single major geopolitical cataclysm going back to the French Revolution, you look hard enough. You will find rising food prices as the cause. Maybe this isn't even the big one. Maybe we're about to get a big spike in global food prices and maybe there's some other thing waiting for us in the weeds that we haven't even thought of yet as the unintended consequence of an Iranian butterfly waving its wings in the wind of American air power. - Ooh, look at that. - Just blows. - That was nice. - Yeah, you landed that. - This is definitely the virtue of Athens over Sparta. Okay, on that note, we will get out of here. (singing in foreign language)