EP136:錯過整段嘎空怎麼辦?

(upbeat music) - Hi,大家好,我是阿Yen, 哇,這個放假放都忘記了. 昨天才是禮拜一啊啦, 今天已經禮拜二了, 因為我們平常Podcast都在禮拜一更新, 然後昨天放假, 然後我想說反正也沒有開盤, 那就留到今天再來錄好了. 那我看一下,我們上禮拜講什麼, 我有點忘記了, 沒關係,我們直接講比較新的情況, 因為我們前面講那個Garcon的這個進程, 進程應該已經到這個第二波的回測的階段了, 第二波回測的階段, 那Garcon其實普遍, 普遍我們翻閱歷史資料這樣子, 看下來,這樣觀察下來, 大概都是兩到三波的情況, 這個是機率最高的,機率最高的, 幾乎啦,大多數都是這樣子, 大多數都是這樣, 但為什麼我, 我不是確切講一個三, 或是一個二呢? 因為不一定, 因為有時候是二,有時候是三, 所以後面我們都會比較保守一點, 比較保守一點, 尤其是在第二波結束之後呢, 都會比較保守一點, 因為你沒有辦法很肯定, 第三波他會不會來, 沒有辦法很肯定, 這是其中一點, 然後再來就是, 就算你做到第三波, 你也會, 就是你有可能會來不及啦, 有可能會來不及, 就像我們, 啊,我突然想到, 就像我們上一集講的嘛, 我們在一二一, 二二年初, 二二年初的時候, 我們就是遇到這樣子的情況嘛, 後面來不及嘛, 所以沒有做到第三波, 我覺得也不一定是壞事, 當下你可能會覺得很不爽, 因為他明明還在長, 甚至創新高了, 但是你沒什麼賺到, 你當然會覺得有點, 有點遺憾, 有點遺憾, 但我覺得其實, 我覺得這跟人生很像, 對不對, 你有時候當下看, 你會覺得, 啊,這種鳥事怎麼會發生在我身上, 然後甚至你會覺得, 因此感到這個, 心情不好, 很愚悶, 很不得志, 等等之類的, 但是你過一段時間回頭去看, 你反而會發現, 當初看起來是壞事的事情, 其實, 不一定是壞事, 對不對, 不一定是壞事, 所以, 在現在這個, 該空的進程裡面來講呢, 我覺得, 你沒有辦法像過去那樣, 這麼的, 這麼的, 不用擔心啦, 這麼的不用擔心, 這麼的積極的, 這麼, 我覺得, 這個風險開始升高了, 開始升高了, 那, 對我們而言呢, 其實沒有太大的差別, 為什麼? 因為我們這一次, 做得太慢了, 做得太慢了, 所以, 這一整段的, 該空的行情呢, 我們有, 參與到, 但是參與的, 程度呢, 其實說真的, 有點低, 有點低, 因為我們只有, 進到了基本部位, 而且是在, 第一段的尾聲, 所以其實, 就賺了, 賺了, 賺了一小段吧, 賺了一小段而已, 那到現在我們的, 部位還是, 還是, 還是握著, 還是握著, 那為什麼會握著呢? 有幾個點, 因為, 假設, 假設他, 後面還有第三波嘛, 那, 那, 你們有必要賣嘛, 對不對? 那假設後面沒有呢, 假設後面沒有呢, 他直接進入了這個, 我們前面一直講, 但是都沒有出現的這個, 中期整理格局呢, 然後其實對我們來講的, 影響也不會太大, 為什麼? 第一點, 就是因為我們前面的, 水位很低, 水位很低, 大概只有兩成多而已吧, 然後再來就是, 第一, 對, 第一波的默契, 你可以回頭去看, 我們第一波是什麼時候講的, 是在9月10號講的, 你回頭去看, 9月10號那時候的, 價格, 然後其實兩萬五而已, 兩萬五而已, 兩萬五左右而已, 所以你, 你如果現在回頭去, 你現在回頭去拉, 以, 以近期你出現的最高價格, 然後拉到兩萬五, 其實, 已經大了, 差不多大概六趴了, 差不多六趴了, 那, 那, 這個六趴, 離, 離這個, 我們先前講的, 中期增利的十趴來看的話, 其實也沒有很遠, 對不對, 其實也沒有很遠, 尤其是, 尤其是什麼, 尤其是他現在, 上禮拜啦, 上禮拜, 今天不算的話, 上禮拜他已經跌了三、四趴了, 對不對, 他已經跌了三、四趴了, 你離這個, 六趴還有很遠嗎? 對不對, 沒有啊, 沒有很遠啊, 對不對, 那與其你, 你, 這個, 把他砍掉, 對不對, 然後想說, 好, 沒關係, 我就等到時候, 來的時候, 我再買就好了, 那你就又又又犯了, 跟前面一樣的錯嘛, 對不對, 跟我們前面一樣的錯, 我們前面就是砍得太多了, 我覺得我們前面操作沒有錯, 但是, 可以調整的地方是什麼, 砍得太多了, 砍得太多了, 因為, 呃, 因為其實當時, 本來就有評估, 大家可能是, 高機率會出現啊, 只差在他回了多少, 什麼時候出現, 只差在這裡而已, 我們當時就是, 比較積極一點, 比較積極一點, 想說, 我覺得啦, 我覺得現在回頭看, 可能是有點太過自信, 太過自信, 我覺得我買得回來, 所以, 就調得比較多, 然後後來發現, 買不回來, 買不回來, 所以, 你現在, 你現在如果這樣做的話, 也會遇到一樣的情況, 也會遇到一樣的情況, 所以我們就, 完全沒有要調了, 我們完全沒有要調了, 第一個是, 水位不夠高, 沒有什麼好調的, 第一個是, 你在調其實, 空間也沒有想像中那麼大, 你很有可能, 很有可能, 假設, 假設, 他假設, 他真的會死怕, 假設真的是這樣子, 那你最後健康的軍駕呢, 其實, 我最後健康軍駕呢, 其實可能會跟, 調整之前, 差不多, 差不多, 所以, 與其這樣, 那我就乾脆不要動了, 不要動了, 也不需要在那邊, 這個, 看著價格, 上上下下的, 就完全不需要, 完全不需要, 所以, 這是我個人的情況啦, 但你個人跟我, 應該不太可能會一模一樣, 不太可能會一模一樣, 所以你還是要想一下, 你自身現在, 比如說你現在水位是多少, 對不對, 你還有多少的現金, 還有多少錢可以用, 你還有多少的資源, 甚至你有多少場外的資源可以用, 這個每個人都不一樣, 所以你還是要審視一下, 你自己的情況, 然後, 我們稍微講一下, 因為我們在, 上週的, 我看一下上週幾, 因為其實在, 欸? 看一下那是禮拜幾, 呃, 二十六號是禮拜幾, 啊,上週五, 上週五之前, 欸? Is it the 5th day of the event? Um, I'll take a look at the time. Before, on the 26th, before the 5th day of the event, actually we all think that the 3rd day of the event is actually quite high, even though it's quite high, and then, on the 5th day of the event, after the event, we found that, after the event, it was a bit awkward, why is it awkward? Because, it's still a bit embarrassing, because I just, my son suddenly came in, I went downstairs to get him some water, and then, uh, on the 5th day of the event, because on the 5th day of the event, on the 5th day of the event, I came out, and then we found that, in fact, what's the good thing about it? The good thing about it is, the third part of the review, the review of the, the review of the, the review of the, and the other situation is, it's already over, the time is over, we have to sort it out, especially in these two scripts, the review, that is, both are possible, both are possible, so in this situation, there is no way, uh, to move more parts, to the third part of the preview, to do the layout, there is no way to do it, because, it looks like two, two possibilities, the probability is actually not going up and down, so if you go too far, like the other side, uh, if you press the right button, it will be more expensive, but if you press the wrong button, right, you are very, very likely, that is, the part of the front, the part of the front, you have to return, then, this depends on your personal risk, it's not the same as yours, but I personally, don't like the feeling of paying, so in this aspect, I think it's more conservative, I won't go too far, to press somewhere, uh, that is, for example, press, oh, I think the third part will definitely come, then I will, make the step bigger, and then wait for the third part to come, I personally don't, don't imagine it like this, don't imagine it like this, but how do you do it, it's your freedom, I just want to talk about my own situation, then next is, today's, after, uh, we think it's still, still, it's the same as last week's five, uh, it's possible for both, it's possible for both, so we didn't go too far, to move our part, uh, now, we can only look at what, we can only check from time to time, uh, that now is not, it is indeed in the third part, is about to, uh, appear, the situation, uh, then what can we look at, this can look at our free space, that free space has actually increased, it's not a lot, I see how much, uh, in total increase, to 5,000, uh, to 5,000, then come to 36,000, 37,000, about, 36,000, 37,000, then actually, you're in front of several times, regardless of this, after all, uh, even if it's 55,000, actually more than 50,000, more than 50,000, it's almost the third part, the last part, the last part of the third part, uh, so recently, you can look at, uh, this free space, do you follow, when you grow up, you can increase, increase, increase, and then there is a observation point, what is it, because we have talked about before, this, when you grow up, the整理, and the measured, the density is not big, not big, and then, the time is not long, so, even, uh, even if you now, may not understand, it's okay, you just look at a few more days, look at a few more days, actually it's okay, it's not very effective, right, I remember we were in, let me see which one is it, I remember it seems to be last week, or last week, um, let me find a little bit, look at it, uh, oh, there is, number 25, we are writing on the article number 25, we, when writing in the document, is, the return of the vacuum cleaner, the parts are not deep, and not long, this time it will not be an exception, but it does not mean that you can, actively, do much, because now, the situation is not compared to the vacuum, the first wave, the first wave is not compared to the first wave, so, so, we can see, for example, if we assume that this time, it is really the return of the vacuum cleaner, then basically, this week will be over, this week will be over, whether tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, whether there is a drop, whether there is a drop, then we assume there is a drop, then if it is the return of the vacuum cleaner, then basically, it is almost, the return rate is almost here, because in fact, if you look at it now, it is about 3 to 4%, about 3 to 4%, then actually, from the historical point of view, you are very difficult, when you see it in the vacuum, it is very difficult to see the return rate of over 5%, then in the current period, the biggest time, it should be 3.58, I did not remember it wrong, it should be around 3.5, 3.5, so actually, it is not far from this 5%, it is not far, so, you can just look at this week's situation, look at this week's situation, and then at the same time, at the same time, let's look at, what we just talked about, the part of the vacuum cleaner, so these can be your, the direction of observation, can be the direction of observation, then you look at it, you will, after a few days of data, you will, you will be able to evaluate, your current step, do not need to make adjustments, which script is likely to be bigger, you will be able to make adjustments at that time, actually, you will be able to do it, so roughly, this is probably how it is, then, then this, this period, I think, actually, actually you have to, the whole process is also very, very difficult, very, very difficult, especially in this kind of, it keeps growing, it's almost like, almost like it's brainless, almost like it's brainless, actually, it's very hard to report, actually, it's very hard to report, so, I think if you do not, the participation is not enough, then you feel that you have lost a lot, or it's a little noisy, and so on, I think this is, actually, it's not necessary, this is not necessary, because you think about it, if you are pretty good, I will give you the lowest point, September 3rd, September 2nd, this is the lowest point, before it grows, you are full, I will give you a, 10x liver, like this is already enough, right, is already enough, I believe you may be sold out on the first day, right, the same meaning, right, because you, you can't get it, you can't carry it, right, your department is so big, so full, liver is so high, you basically, how can you report a whole period, it's very difficult, too difficult, too difficult, unless you have any, this, the habits of the past, but I think this, basically, very, not realistic, not realistic, you want to see how you can be full, and then this, so full liver, it's almost like you, it may be a, 2, 3, 8, 3, 4, 8, you will be exposed to this kind of liver, and then you carry, 2500 points, not possible, right, not realistic, so you don't have to, too, to criticize yourself, say, ah, this, this period, I save money, ah, this period, how am I, ah, if I, before, how is it, how is it, in fact, you don't have to criticize yourself, because I think, on the market, it's like this, you are not earning, you are learning, right, you did not earn this time, or you did not earn enough, did not think so much, actually it does not matter, right, at least, you have to learn this experience, right, you take this teaching and experience, you next time, in the same situation, you can definitely do better, pretend, pretend that this time, for example, 1000 points, make 200 points, okay, you only count, then 200 points, then, then you next time, make 250 points, 300 points, is there no possibility, then certainly, the chance is bigger than this time, right, so I think, I think, that is, whether you invest, or this kind of transaction, I think, in fact, it is a kind of innovation, then I think, if you want to go this way, if you are interested in this, if you want to go this way, I think this kind of growth, thinking is also very important, because you are not likely, you are not likely, in the middle there must be a very, bad time, right, you do not, you encounter these bad times, you have to how to go down, I think this is very, very important, you have to let yourself be able to, continue, continue to be yourself, and then, when you encounter those, difficulties, when you encounter those negative times, you have to how, how to, at the same time, stop the past at the same time, let yourself, evolve, I think this is very, very important, not to say, your period of 2000-3000 points, after you have earned, how much, how much, how much, I think this is a miracle, because you will definitely, will encounter similar situations in the future, then like we first, we first have, have you ever met the manager, yes, have you ever met Gakong, yes, right, then we this time, relatively speaking, in fact, I was our, in recent, a few years, in recent few years, we have dealt with the most, the worst, but we did not, did not feel this, ah, whether it is regret, or delusion, in fact, no, because this, this kind of situation, it is impossible, you this life, impossible, only encountered this time, right, so this time you did not, did not go out, is there a reason, no reason, the point is, you have to put this experience, this teaching, learn, right, remember in your heart, remember in your mind, the next time you encounter, you can definitely be better, I think this is enough, this is enough, you encounter two or three times, your fifth, sixth, seventh, even, in, may learn not so, not so fast, the tenth time, can it be, can it be, right, no need to be so, so, so professional, I think, life is very long, you do not need to be anxious, all right, that's it, then we, see you next week, bye bye, [Music]