Ep 29 The development of the renewable C&I sector in Asia with Gavin Adda
41m 7s
The podcast features Gavin Adda, CEO of Peak Energy, discussing his extensive background in renewable energy, from early solar projects in the U.S. to leadership roles in Asia. He defines the C&I renewable sector as selling electricity directly to commercial and industrial customers, primarily via rooftop solar and corporate PPAs, emphasizing cost reduction and energy security as key drivers in Asia. Over the past decade, the sector has grown from niche to mainstream due to declining solar and battery costs, rising grid prices, and demand from tech companies and data centers, though regulatory fragmentation across countries persists. Peak Energy scales by operating multi-nationally from inception, centralizing support functions to manage costs, and leveraging structured B2B sales processes. Battery storage is highlighted as a game-changer, allowing solar energy to be used at night and increasing project viability. The discussion underscores the sector's rapid evolution and the strategic approaches needed to capitalize on opportunities in Asia's diverse markets.
Hello everybody I'm Ben and I'm Yi-O. Welcome back to Sustainable Energy Asia podcast. Yi-O today we have a very insightful episode with Gavin Adda on the Renewable CNI Sector in the back. Indeed, Gavin has a front row seat to the development of the Sector in A-Pack. It is a founder of CleanTech Solar, headed Renewable at Total Energy and is now the CEO of Peak Energy, one of the Stone Peak Renewable Platforms in Pack. We had a very interesting discussion covering topics such as the evolution of the Sector, the regulation in different countries, how to scale, the terms to get right in CPP and bank ability. And to our listeners, please take a moment to read, comment and share the episode with your friends. It's the best way for new listeners to find us. Thanks and on with the show. Welcome to the podcast, if you can introduce yourself and work through your journey in India for you to take the role as CEO of Peak Energy. Sure, happy to do that. I started in the tech sector with doing startups and bits and pieces like the arts in Europe, MBA in France, with INSEAN, and then I go at work in Korea and doing various different things. Internal strategy consulting, challenge office for Samsung, but then spend a few years to benefit utility scale and rooftop projects in the U.S. until the 2009-2010 tide period. We did around a billion dollars of utility scale, large solar farms, 200 megawatt projects. And it was at that point that we saw returns dropping very, very, very late from sort of a 25% U.S.D. returns with a nice [inaudible] I really liked it, right? Then the next year was 15, then it dropped to seven and then received five, six percent returns. This all the share partnership play would develop exactly tax equity structures, et cetera. And Samsung was kind of saying, well, our hurdles, 15%, what do we do and imagine when I started to look at doing rooftop that we looked to buy a solar city, which is Tesla now, and Sun Power which ended up being bought by total energy just before Samsung could get in there. And that's a reason I mention that that that ended up then be my dream. Like there was this inspirational moment that was dinner with the PG&E, the Pacific Astronautics, one of the largest utilities in the U.S. and I thought, wow, what I really want to do is come to Southeast Asia and develop rooftop projects, because in a sunlight, you know, more expensive power, cheaper labor, like this is going to be great. Then come to Singapore, unfortunately, nobody wanted to do rooftop solar and nobody wanted to do CNI. The only thing that we're doing with Newables in Singapore with any scale was REC, so another Norwegian solar panel manufacturer and I took a role there doing various different things with a key thing was to sell them. So this very dynamic Norwegian private equity oil and gas high network individuals had bought REC and they wanted to sell it as quickly as they could as fast as as much as possible. So my job was buying the buyer and so in 2050, I ran the process to sell them. So this was the last one of the last non-Chinese solar panel manufacturers in the world and we sold them to Kim China. That was the largest reviewable M&H action in 2015 and then after that, I stopped the company called Pintet Solarth with a couple of million dollars from a few individuals and started doing CNI in India, so that was some of the first CNI projects in Cambodia and that was then bought by Shell and then Kempel and then most recently 100% bought out by Kempel and then I left there raised money some infinity, which was a Belgian and now also in Japan and the U.S. that was the PID find stroke renewable developer that was the founding and founding investment of Sun Edison and what's it called, the yield code that was sent out. Oh, okay. Okay. So they were the founding of the stand, worked with them for a while and then eventually sold that to total energies, the oil and gas company in France and you know, as a very small group, so four people, especially at some powered points, we joined her town and built out a research business that ended up being about 250 megawatts across 30 countries. We created a yield code with NEOs, the Japanese oil and gas companies sold down 50% of the assets to then and made a high exit island on that transaction. And then I ran the utility scale business for total in Asia, which is around 50 gigawatts of operating projects, so probably the one of the biggest owners of operating projects in Asia and land that so a few years and developed the total energies report project for Singapore which is over 10 gigawatts over what I was about to eat, there were a few, there were a few different things that happened that caused me to decide to leave total. One was there was a market opportunity, deregulation was coming through, we still see that coming to the region, right? And there's this really exciting opportunity to jump onto that. But you need to combine sort of B2B sales and market C, PPA negotiation, development, so really controlling land acquisition and permitting development as well as all the rest. So all the normal development stuff, plus B2B sales and marketing. And I think that was going to be difficult to do in total and needed to be nimble and fast and all that. And then I think second thing was there was just a change in strategy from total. So we ran a process, me and my CFO business partner, I've been working with for 15 years now with him, Samson and all the other contestants then. And we ran a process to pick an investor just after new business, went to the normal list and picked Stove Peak, which is one of the biggest infrastructure investors based on New York, raised $450 million to start peak energy. We demand eight to go after commercial industrial, after CNI. Rooshtop on site as well as our site and we've hired about 110, 150 people in the last pay-key balance now. We've got to about a gigawatt of projects under the environment. We're running on the Rooshtop side about 10 times, backstab, grows, then we had a total. We've built one of the largest factory projects in Australia and got that operational. We're operating one of the largest solar farms in Korea. I'm really growing incredibly quickly, so very exciting and transition and trajectory. Very interesting. Maybe I'd like to step back a bit, just defining the sector because for some of the listeners from my build, a bit less familiar, could you define what we mean by CNI or renewable energy sector and could you maybe just outline as well the main business model from leasing to corporate PPAs and the like? And actually, a title that gets confused a lot of the time in total and in state peak. So the way I think about it, CNI is commercial and industrial and basically the point is here, we're not selling to a monopoly utility like historically in Singapore, like in Vietnam, you can only sell to EVN in Malaysia only to TNB, basically what it means is we're able to sell electricity directly to the commercial and industrial customer to the end customer. In most countries, that means RISCHTOP on site, right? So in Indonesia, you have to be on site, you cannot sell directly, but in some countries we've seen that de-vegination, that really is the essence of why we exist. We were created to go after that segment. And so you see Japan de-regunates, Singapore de-regunates, you see Vietnam announce several times over the last five years. I heard the next draft would be a walkable company. And so we really structured to go after that and that kind of comes from a history of coming from the US and Europe where we were developing projects in Samsung, looking for sustainability and looking for those renewable energy credit. And that was the key value driver. And you come to Asia, it's cost, right, EVN, that's been a key element. So CNIL is the main element, but if you drop down country by country, it really depends. The regulations and the way in which you engage in Philippines, the Philippines is a good example. There was PPA, then the operating fee, then the DPSA, the bank, the operating fee is depending on what was happening in the regulations. But essentially, the RISCHAT is we put the money in to build the projects, we handle all of the RISCHAT performance as the seller of electricity. It does a cloud, it does a shift and does a work. That's all our risk. And then we have commercial or industrial customers that buy the electricity as it's produced. So we had the front road seats into the development of this space in the region from clean texola to total energy and no peak. If you had to take a view into the last 10 year hole, have you seen this sector evolve? Yeah. So my model, the one that I keep looking back to is Europe and the U.S., right? So Europe and the U.S. is 10 to 20 years ahead of Asia. Jane really speaking. And so I remember in 2015, you know, I was doing the cold calling. I was knocking on the door and they trying to get into a customer to say, okay, can I put a solar system on your roof? I will pay for it. I will put a million dollars of solar system on your roof and you just pay me for the electricity that's produced. And they wouldn't let me into the office. They would basically be in the reception area and they'd say, no, no, no, go away. Go away. You, European guys go back to Italy, go back to Germany where they pay stupid money, the stupid projects we don't want to see. That was really the start. The clipface running in a car around India trying to sell, you know, projects like that. And if they realized you're spending all the money, then it became a lot easier for them to swallow. I would say you've gone from that and then the awareness of the value is really a product. So I cut my tea, literally trying to get people to buy into sustainability is all about cost in Asia. And for me, that's wonderful because we're in the jungle. Like we're having to go out there and science to generate real cost benefits for our customers. Well, that's where I come from. Not, hey, you should do it because it's good to the earth. Not because you've got some wrecks. Not because you're going to have a sustainability report at the end of the year that you could show your investors. No, we're going to save you money. And what's really exciting is over the last, you know, 10, 50 years, we've been able to show how the cost reductions in solar and now in batteries versus the grid cost escalation, I've meant, you know, huge, right? So a tyrant with 50% cheaper than the grid in Japan with 40 to 50% cheaper than the grid everywhere with cheaper than the grid, apart from Indonesia. And so that's a huge driver. And they really put against that the commodity spine in GANS, other 2020, 2021, 22, you know, you have now governments and large corporates who are very nervous of being exposed to that energy, sort of boom bus cycle and price cycles. So, you know, the energy security has come in, relying, there's a lot of other factors that really have taken solar and CNI solar, especially from super fringe, very, very western, usually French companies deciding to make a stand and show that show themselves to be, you know, special to now everybody chasing after this. And so I think it's really evolved as a market in terms of the awareness and the customer demand and banks have been, finance have been very quick to adapt because you've got people like, you know, BNP in this region saying, hey, no, the local bank doesn't want to do it. We've been doing this for 20 years in Europe, we're more than happy to provide debt. And so that's been a huge driver also far for the growth of the industry. A significant share of the growth in the demand from what we observe has been around the last center expansion in the tech company, having been commitment and wanting to have green electron. Who has these layouts in a pack and do you think it has been shaping the demand in a big way? So I'm a little bit nervous about the data center because it's such a huge impact on how a demand should at least, right? So if you look at Japan over the last 10 years, we've been forecasting reduction in demand, reduction of price. We could say that the spot market is basically going to reduce over the next 10 to 20 years. Now because of data center demand in Japan, Japan is probably one of the largest markets in Asia for data centers, not counting in China, you're now forecasting very significant increases in power demand. And that's also driving price and the price is pretty important for us to be able to do a long term infrastructure investment. So so it's fantastic as a driver, it's great, but it needs to be, it needs to be maintained and you see a lot of this questions around smile around, you know, is this a bubble, is AI a bubble? Because that's really driving the state of center demand. So the baseline is what I got my team is it 50% of our projects are signed with data centers. And we're talking to all of the data center providers, the height of scale and all the renters. I mean, on a day basis across all of our markets, so very close, he tied to that and stir up the owns through the portfolio companies, some of the biggest data center providers in Asia. Very, very close, I think that the one of the, one of the good examples to look at is Singapore and what has happened in Singapore in the last few years, right? So so Singapore has that 80% of power demand, they sucked up by the data centers that explains to a large extent why we have some of the highest prices in Asia, so the power, it became so important, such a big issue that they Singapore created it instituted a moratorium. So normal data centers allowed to be installed in Singapore and and and nested an excerpt to a new bio energy. That gave rise to that very large import tender to bring renewable energy from nearby countries. So we're talking literally billions of potential investments happening there. But but essentially what the data centers have realized is we can't be focused on just Singapore. So they've gone on to Malaysia, they've gone over to Indonesia, then looking in other markets. And I think Malaysia is now turning looking like a multi billion dollar renewable opportunity for solar. What's the quite interesting is to have for solar outside the Malaysian entities, regular soy entities, looking for batching solar combinations and as a whole, no, no complex sea land, the wheelie. But I think it's a huge strider and it will be very interesting to see how, because they really experts in power purchasing power procurement, they Google Microsoft, they're very very clever. And that would just fantastic trust on the perspective of, you know, you've got a good counterparty to go and do first of a kind type projects. But it always makes me nervous if I've just got one customer. The whole point of CNI is to broaden that and multiple data and customers and diversify the risk rather than just having that monopolistic structure. So it's good, but it needs to match they can. There's one point you mentioned, I find interesting is, you mentioned that you're also working on offering with battery and like a base load is quite, especially for data centers is really important. A whole predominance is battery now and what kind of project are you developing with battery? Yeah. So back to prices have dropped like ridiculously quickly in the last two or three years. So we're talking 50% drop annually as far as I can see from where I am over the last two three years. And that means the use cases have changed and are changing almost months to month. And so where is the pool? We can have a solar system that would say, for example, say, for example, a company has a reduction in power demand over lunchtime. We can move that. We can generate power during lunchtime and then put it in a battery and discharge it in the afternoon. That was the only use case that was really making sounds and we needed a two or three cycles per per day. And we now see one cycle per day can make sounds and we see that we can install solar plus of actually charge of actually during the day and they take all that generation and drop it in at midnight at 1 a.m. at 2 a.m. and be cheaper than any other form of power effect at that time. And that's super exciting. That's kind of the hoodie ground like because if you talk to the oil and gas guys, they will tell you, yeah, solar and weight, but it's only going to generate when the sun's up or when it's blowing and that's not the case anyway. And what sort of seeing is you can add solar plus fasts. You can build it faster. It's cheaper, not really based load. So that that concept of, you know, it's just going to run for 25 hours. That's still a long way away. Like that might be 10 years away, but 30% yeah, that's doable. There's a Morocco project in Philippines that will do 30% or 40% of Manila's power coming from this huge solar system to back to, yeah, that's 50% capacity factors throughout that most of the day and early evening. Yeah, she got in the grip that's that's really the holy grail to the industry. Okay. One of the challenges in the sector today and as I see it in many platforms is really to achieve scale and especially when we spoke about behind the meter project rooftop and also because region is also quite fragmented. So they have so many countries with different regime and also some time high SGN costs. How at peak energy are you addressing this constraint to scale? Yeah. So there's a few different strands to that. So in the very first moment that we started a clean head. The position was that we needed to divert to diversify the snorkel countries. So immediately started with India, you know, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand and St. Malaysia. And we said, okay, we need these five because you don't know what's going to happen year to year. It was the same in the US in 2009. One state would implement fantastic subsidies. And then they would just shut down all rooftops you needed to be able to pivot. Once you do that, you think, okay, I'm going to be multi country. Then you think, what is the best way to structure my organization in order to optimize SGN? And you get so very interesting benefits that way, right? You could put your engineering center one place, your finance somewhere else, back office finance on me. And that actually means that you don't need one in every country. When I look at a lot of our competitors, they haven't set up like that. They're having kind of a core country that they were really good at, they started there. And then they said, okay, now I'm going to go somewhere else. And then they kind of evolved over time, rather than planning for the beginning, if you plan for the beginning, you can control the SGN much better. So we could start a new country with two people. We don't need finance, you don't need HR, you don't need IT, you don't need agent, you need mental centralized. So I think the first thing is controlling the SGN. The second thing is the scaling, you're absolutely scaling behind the meter. I think that there's been a lot of people trying to work out how to do this, like try to figure it out as they went along. But for me, there's two models that I kind of use as my north stuff for how to do this. One is IT. So I was in IT, when I was in IT, we were moving, she was moving from government to business. She was moving from government to CNI, you know, Oracle, Microsoft, IBM, they only sold to government entities, DARPA and Ministry of Defense. And I was part of the process where we worked out, okay, how do we sell to thousands or tens of thousands of different corporates to, you know, Walt Disney and Reggie Tenerco, exactly. And they are, there's a system. It is a bit scientific, you know, there's a core sector, there's this, that's how you gain your scale, you have a funnel. So this whole B2B sales and marketing, that's a system that needs to be protected place. And that isn't something that the energy industry should just me as had, right? If you were monopoly, you would just call people up and say, Hey, you're renewing the next year. This is your price, you know, and you didn't have any negotiation. So there was no, so a lot of the utilities in Europe and the US really got caught because they didn't really know how to do B2B sales and marketing. But they thought they owned a customer, but they didn't work due regularly. So for us, daily, it's really formally good customers. And so if you're going to large customers, you're going to, you know, Ikea or Coca-coda or something like that, very in all of these markets, they want to have one customer and they will help you to go from one customer to the next. So I think that's been a really important factor. That's really interesting. We just closed from the actual industry and space in India. And that was also pitch and repeats customers, et cetera, and very interesting on the SEGNA. In many processes, now what we see is the seller starts to sell the multi-country platform, but a lot of investors are not okay with all the country and then they ended up breaking up and breaking the synergies. So it's interesting how you look at it. One critical point as well to get right is the CPPAs and from experience, what are the most critical terms that you need to get right when you're negotiating such agreements? Yeah, stepping back, we're a regional business. We know that we're going to be signing 50 to 100 PPAs a year, you need to be signing that kind of body, otherwise you're not skating fast enough. So if you're thinking that and then you're thinking, okay, five years to now, three years to now, I'm going to be coming to Bedrin and I'm going to be saying, okay, please, will you give me data online, 300 projects? Your first question out, so the first question I got in the US was, how many different PPAs do you have? Like, if you have one template in multiple different languages, okay, if you have four templates, okay, probably okay, but if you have 300 different contracts of each one is customized for that customer, forget it, no one's going to do it. So I started with a very structured, very organized, risk-sharing mechanism and then pushing that out, well, when I look at some markets, they're very hierarchical. I know the supplier, you're the customer, you tell me, and I will try to make it happen. And that's it's you. It's very damaging because it means that the customer, like a big customer, like Google or Microsoft or Amazon, leverage can push the developer around until we see that local smaller developers sign me contracts that are not bankable and it was very famous in 2009. They caused it, they called it the "casm of death" and so basically, literally thousands of solar developers doing projects in Arizona and Massachusetts and whatever, they would get to 30 megawatts, it was 30 megawatts, and then they would die. And the reason is you could raise 20 million dollars or 30 million dollars and go through some projects, but when you came to the banks and they looked at the contracts, the contracts weren't bankable, there's no debt. You can't raise any more equity, you get stuck at 30, 30 megawatts generates around two or four million dollars of revenue, and that's a lot to try to keep people aligned for a long time. Like, if you fire all your stars, the founders pretty much are okay with two or three people on O&M and they can kind of slow-greed for a very long time, hoping that something's going to happen. So for me, standardization of the contracts is super important and then awareness of the key animals. So your termination fee, your ability of banks to directly take over the project and something goes wrong. There's a few of those kind of clauses which are probably four or five, red line, unacceptable. We need access whenever we want, if you don't give us access, we can't fix the project. These kind of things are really critical. And so you would never deviate from those terms? To be walked away. We've walked away from a lot of projects because customers just say, "Sorry, we are never going to be able to persuade a bank to give us debt without debt." This project doesn't make sense. It's not. We don't make enough for a term. This is the infrastructure. And I feel like there's a lot of people who came in at the beginning and there's 30 times, maybe from Ted or maybe he's from finance who saw, "Okay, this is like IT and this is VC and all of that. It's not. It's infrastructure." And so it needs to be super stable, super trustworthy, very stable, red new lines. We need to have flaws on projects. We just saw what happened at Vietnam, right? It just converted some of pure generation tariffs for commercial industrial customers to a combination of the capacity payment, the generation to the tariff that people pay and collapse. What is it? Nothing, right? What understand is, they haven't done that. So what they're doing is today, they're presenting on the invoice the two options. So you have the old weight and still hope of the cause of being built. But then you have the other way with capacity payment and the energy payment and the energy payment. Of course, the marginal cost of generation now is lower than your CA and I rooftop, so that could be a big concern if they really decide to implement that. So what's interesting is that we saw that happen in Arizona in 2009. We saw that happen in Cambodia in 2016, maybe 2017, something like that. So these things have happened and these are techniques that are used by the incumbents to prevent renewal from coming in. And it works, right? And Indonesia did it in 2019, right? So so it definitely is effective, it's appropriate. And there's a whole strategy that you can use if you're a buyer of power to reduce the capacity to reduce the adjust your consumption with batches and with soda that see, you know, still benefit. But what I would get to is we were in Vietnam, we were developing projects, everybody was doing a grid discount, right? So it's a grid, minus 20% of what I said, you've a set. And the big battle was to say, and we get a floor and you can't go below the floor. And this is where I would have my local team screaming at me like, you know, come on, the rest of the market's not doing floors, why do you keep insisting on floors? And it was because of this kind of situation where eventually the banks are going to come back and say, you're going to pull your DSC on coverage. It's a work. And the PPA stuff is really sticking to guns and understanding that risk, those that you're going to have. And the fact that you put all the money in and the customers getting discounts against the grid, you know, which quite frankly, no risk on no money out there from their side. So it's competitive, but you need to stick with the fundamentals. In my previous life, I was also looking at financing, CNI, portfolio and it hard for credit to get around like portfolio of hundreds, assets, etc. Generally speaking, like when you go for financing, what is the best strategy are you going for financing, country, backcountry, or better to look at multi-geography, or what is the ideal structure that you see? That pulls a number interesting strand to really, if you look at most of these markets, can you scale it? If you are 20% of the Philippines rooftop market, that means that you're probably when picking the number out of the air now, but it means you're going to cheat 50 and 100 megawatts of projects. That means you're going to cheat 25 and 50 million dollars of CapEx. That means you're between 5 and 10 million dollars of equity, maybe 15 million dollars of equity. The numbers that you're talking about are really small. And depending on where you go, the cost on legal advice or technical advice, that can be half a million dollars, a million dollars. So if you're raising 10 or 15 million dollars or 20 million dollars of debt, and you've got half a million dollars or 1 million dollars of upfront fees and all that kind of stuff, it's just not viable. But for me, we've taken this view from the beginning, it usually makes sense if you're doing debt across multiple different countries, which come back with standardization. Now, India is different, China is different, you know, people have been able to scale on significantly. And most of the other markets, I think you need to have multi-country. Now, the way we think about us, we end up targeting that sort of half a billion dollars to the boy and think about, okay, you know, what does that mean in terms of capital capital equity? And much of that is, you said she's scale, how much that's going to be DG, sort of behind the knee tap. And, you know, we think you get a 50 to 100 megawatt per country of DG. So what is the local financing versus the region? So you want to have both of those options during the same time. In many markets, or in many markets, it's actually offshore is quite interesting once you get into the details. And withholding packs in any details would think capitalization will some of the markets are actually more attractive offshore than they are on show. If we look at the competitive landscape, how would you characterize it in the market where you operate? And according to you, what are your key advantages? When I was first launching the utility business for Total, we were trying to find a regional player that we could just buy, you know, the total energy is instinct is, let's go and buy a big player that does everything for us and we could just buy it and then grow it over time. It's quite difficult to find, if there are not a lot of regional players here, you know, some seed EDPR, possibly, you know, send core, but, you know, I'm not sure you want to find a send core renewable portfolio. So I think the first thing is we should be regional, we were in Japan, we're in Korea, Taiwan, we're in Philippine, Thailand, so they are Australians and so that Brent is, I think, is going to be interesting for somebody who wants to be able to scale. And then we control the key pieces of the pie, right? So I think about as being land development, it's very, very difficult for large companies, I tried it in Samsung, I tried it in total of the last 20 years of development and renewables, it's really difficult in a big company for them to give small amounts of money with high risk factors. I'm going to spend $10,000 on $20,000 to buy some land. Well, frankly, I need a local guy in Philippine or Korea to have some relationships with hands that believe I need to be able to delegate and I can't bring up to my level and I definitely can't bring it up to five different levels above me, going up to the chairman of the big organization. So we've been able to build a team with really solid experience, developing land and permits and create each of their countries and that's why I would argue we're already the biggest player or one of the biggest developers in many of the markets that's already in. Then there's the B2B sales piece, so we signed and negotiated, I don't know, 300 or 400 corporate PTAs in Asia, I don't know anyone who's done that kind of body, there are few but not many, but the combination when you come by, they let it the fancy. So the fact that you've got stone people hide you with 450 million dollars committed, you know, you've got the LPs and the biggest companies and the biggest investors in the world, like, you know, you've got a sub and well signed advanced in the country. So the ability to then scale and the credibility of the team we're very lucky to have and I know really good people that are well known in each of their markets and have strong networks and can never. But it's it's moving so fast, you really need to adapt and learn and learn from a lot of good players around us. So it's a really, really great teams alongside us all find to achieve similar objectives and space in the market. So this is the one industry where usually I'm pretty competitive. If we're competing for deal and I'm quite good, but on renewables that time, like, hey, you know, we want everybody to be successful, there's plenty of space and if we can help each other out on the way, then I'm quite keen to do that. When you see all the geographies in APAC, where do you see the best opportunity today? And I know it's changing all the time, but you know, I love today, what's your view on that? So the way I think about it is the each one has its own particular chapter and and somehow they counteract on the unattractive side, right? So I think Philippines is bust. You know, you can go get the land, get the permit, get the Greek connection, that can happen in two years, you know, in Japan, it's fine or in Korea, it's for. So that early stage fees, Korean Japan really payable Philippines attacking. But then once you get into debt and the liquidity and potential investors in the future, Philippines is tricky, really tricky. There's not proven, right? There's not been a lot of, you know, secondary market, not been a lot of sales of existing operating projects of people who've developed projects and Philippines. They hold them, you know, and what's the cost of debt in Philippines and how long is it and what's the structure? Is that advantage? Sure, like we're not when you compare to Korea and to Japan, a cage of pan has doubled the interest rate from, you know, point five to one, but still incredibly powerful to have that kind of dependency on your financing. So I would say, you know, for us, we've been quite successful in Korea and spent 10 years trying to be successful in Korea after NF Samsung, but we've managed to solve that one. So I think we've probably got 700 megawatts of projects in developing Korea. That's turning out well, but it's a very complex and sort of localized market. Philippines, I think everybody would say is one of the hardest markets or will be it's not yet reported yet. I think the analysts are not seeing it yet because it's just a huge amount of development happening. And I think that's good. We're going to see that in two, three, four years as those projects CLD. Philippines is going to be a lot more stable as a country, like a lot more sales reliant, a lot less exposed to the commodity price. Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, there's a lot of people all kind of vying for that second, third place. And regulations are going to be really important in terms of how we land. Well, I don't think about pressing Malaysia. So the reading charges and just like, it's crazy. It's normal in every other market in the world. It's 5% of my revenues go to re-encharges or less 3%, 2% in Malaysia. It's 75%. It isn't in any way representative of the actual cost of we are. It's basically a political group that have decided to increase that and all to suck as much return as possible out out of the projects. And that is down to not be causing the data centers and the big electronics manufacturing customers to think, well, hold on a second. Do I really want to be exposed to that risk? Because there's no way I can take that risk. There's no way. It also changes every three years. I was presenting in the Singapore International Energy Week on another topic and somebody asked that question and so I just kind of started responding. I was like, wow, you know, how could you change every three years? And it's 75% of my revenues and how the hell are we supposed to do it? This is not at all CN's legs. Unfortunately, the CEO of Chris was the next speaker. So he was a little agonizing but here's the actual fantastic because he went out and did his speech. He cut a lot. He said, well, you know, after that previous question, I don't know how to how to manage it. But he really, really do want to do this. But they aren't in a very tight constraints with TNB and with down the players and like the converts are not openly encouraging when it was to come in. And so he has constrained the extent to which they can increase the really charge every year. But I can't come to come to many banks and say, hey, by the way, I don't know what my really charge is going to be and I don't know if I can repay that if they just decide to because this happened right in Romania in 2013 or 2014, we build 50, remember what's a project in downtown? We see a deed and then six weeks later, they increased the reigning charges 600%. And so immediately that was the end of it. Our payback period was eight years or nine years. It went to 35. He's been a huge deal then. And so and everybody was dead, right? Everybody had put money into Romania with, you know, their product to hold that. And so we went to the expansion call to justice. I think the cases are still there. You know, you're never going to wait. So I think once you once for the more experienced players, this is very very difficult to accept. And so we're trying to find our ways through it. But it's not a viable long-term structure. And just to conclude, where do you see peak energy in five years time and how are you thinking about the long-term trajectory and exits of the company? Yeah. So year one was built a team. So hiring a hundred people, where you're at five or kept person company, that that's that's basically a full-type job. We also needed to win a few projects in the first year. In the second year, it's really scaled the development capabilities. So make sure that you have development engines that are coming in and processing lots of land opportunities and reached on opportunities in the Asian market. This year is construction. Like this year, it's starting to starting construction on and winning PPAs in on some pretty significant opportunities. And then next, you'll be fine, fine tuning operations. They'll be financing, they'll be always the different things that happen. When you look at hard-fired years, it's difficult to know what it will look like. But I'd like to be in the top two or three layers in each country. You know, the biggest development in Korea, the biggest development in Japan, big bridge return. Like there are a lot of people out there who are happy to buy projects, make a one percent return or two percent return and basically never be able to sell. We're not that we want to do good projects of a real long-term viable projects that establish the correct approach to be sustainable, not sustainability, but like sustainable business industry. And that is going to be with that too. Like it's totally different. We're not just like, okay, the solar produces as this kind drop it into the grid. How do we manage that risk? How do we move that generation to fit with the customer? How do we adapt to the development as that increases the second market? So I'd like to be to do one of the organizations that helped to design that in Asia, because that too will catch up with Europe and US. Europe and US is struggling with this right now. They don't really have it sold. And so I think we can kind of catch up with them. That's fantastic. Thank you for coming on the show. Very, very nice to talk to you too. Thank you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Gavin Adda's career spans from tech startups and solar development in the U.S. to founding CleanTech Solar and leading renewable energy at TotalEnergies, culminating in his role as CEO of Peak Energy, focusing on the commercial and industrial (C&I) renewable sector in Asia-Pacific.
The C&I renewable energy sector involves selling electricity directly to commercial and industrial customers, primarily through rooftop solar and corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs), driven by cost savings and energy security rather than just sustainability.
The sector in Asia has evolved from initial customer resistance to widespread adoption due to falling solar and battery costs, grid price escalation, and demand from data centers, though market fragmentation and regulatory differences pose scaling challenges.
Peak Energy addresses scaling by operating in multiple countries from the start to diversify risk, centralizing functions to control costs, and applying B2B sales systems akin to IT industry models to efficiently reach numerous corporate clients.
Battery storage integration is becoming economically viable, enabling solar power to be shifted to nighttime use, enhancing reliability and moving toward higher capacity factors, though true 24/7 baseload renewable power remains a future goal.
Summary:
S. to leadership roles in Asia. He defines the C&I renewable sector as selling electricity directly to commercial and industrial customers, primarily via rooftop solar and corporate PPAs, emphasizing cost reduction and energy security as key drivers in Asia.
Over the past decade, the sector has grown from niche to mainstream due to declining solar and battery costs, rising grid prices, and demand from tech companies and data centers, though regulatory fragmentation across countries persists. Peak Energy scales by operating multi-nationally from inception, centralizing support functions to manage costs, and leveraging structured B2B sales processes. Battery storage is highlighted as a game-changer, allowing solar energy to be used at night and increasing project viability.
The discussion underscores the sector's rapid evolution and the strategic approaches needed to capitalize on opportunities in Asia's diverse markets.
FAQs
CNI stands for Commercial and Industrial, referring to selling renewable energy directly to commercial and industrial customers, rather than to monopoly utilities. This often involves rooftop solar or on-site projects, enabled by deregulation in various markets.
It has shifted from being a niche, sustainability-focused market to a cost-driven one, with solar now often cheaper than grid power in many Asian countries. Increased customer awareness, energy security concerns, and supportive financing have accelerated growth.
Data centers are a major driver, significantly increasing power demand and prices in markets like Japan and Singapore. They seek green electrons and often engage in power purchase agreements, though reliance on a single customer type can pose risks.
Battery costs have dropped sharply, enabling solar-plus-storage to provide power during non-sunny periods, such as at night. This allows for higher capacity factors and can make renewable energy cheaper than alternatives even during off-peak hours.
Peak Energy plans for multi-country operations from the start, centralizing functions like finance and engineering to control costs. It employs a systematic B2B sales and marketing approach, similar to IT companies, to efficiently reach numerous corporate customers.
Common models include leasing, where the developer funds and maintains the system, and corporate PPAs, where the customer buys the electricity produced. The developer assumes risks like installation and performance, while the customer benefits from cost savings.
Chat with AI
Loading...
Pro features
Go deeper with this episode
Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.