Speaker 1No, it's not a joke to me, okay? I don't have time for this crap in my life. My life is hard enough as it is, okay? I don't need this crap. I got kids at home that went to bed without me right now, and I was supposed to be at home an hour ago, and I'm still out here working, and I got to get up at five in the morning and do 10 more stores. So this is not a joke to me.
Speaker 2So the person you're listening to, his name is Wald. He's a middle-aged white guy who works at Red Baron. He stocks shelves, taking their frozen pizza, putting it at Walmart, for example. And he's going after an 18-year-old clout chaser who's harassing him by pretending to steal his money. Our politics ought to be focused on Wald. So why is everybody focused on pleasing the 18-year-old douchebag? All right, so I want to play you the entire clip here. This video has gone viral. It's been reshared across multiple social media platforms. And here you see someone named online only as Wald. Who's approached by somebody who pretends to steal 10 bucks from him through Apple Pay. The streamer holds out his phone to the employee's phone. The Apple Pay transaction sound plays. And from the viewer, it's pretty obvious it's a pre-recorded sound, but it's not clear for the employee. Now the Instagram account for that clip has been deleted appropriately. Here's what the whole transaction looked like.
Speaker 3Dude, thank you, bro. I just took $10 out of you. But I need it. But I need it real quick. I am not aiming for this crap right now. Apple Pay? Dude, do you hear me? I just need to buy some real quick, though. You think this is funny, don't you? Are you recording me right now? You think you should record me right now? No, I'm going to report you. All right, bye, boss. Thank you for the $20, man. I appreciate it. Let's go outside, buddy. Are you for real, bro? It is not that deep. Oh, dude, I will destroy you. It is not that. I mean, if you really want to go outside. I don't know if you're recording me or not. I don't know what's going on. But I don't need this stuff. It's not that deep, man.
Speaker 1It was just a joke. You're just a little punk.
Speaker 3It was just a joke, bro.
Speaker 1It was just a joke. It was just a joke. My life is hard enough as it is. Okay? I got kids at home. They want to bed without me right now. And I was supposed to be at home an hour ago. And I'm still out here working. And I got to get up at 5 in the morning and do 10 more. And I got to go to the stores. Okay. And now I'm probably going to get kicked out of the store because of you. Not funny. Okay, I'm sorry, bro.
Speaker 3No, you're not funny. You got a smug look on your face. I'm sorry, bro. I'm sorry. I'm just like. I don't need this in my life. No, I get you. No, you don't. You're probably making money off this.
Speaker 1I can't even pay my guy's mortgage. And I got four kids at home. Okay. So not funny.
Speaker 2And so this entire series of events led off by an 18-year-old pretending to steal money from just a blue-collar worker who's stocking shelves. This resulted in sort of a white-pill moment in a GoFundMe for this person. It was organized by a person named Luke Oakenshield, who clarified in the fundraiser description he has no idea who the employee is. He says, quote, this fundraiser is about standing up for a working person who is busting their butt and should not have to fear losing stability because someone wanted content and clicks. And this. Has currently raised something like $465,000, approaching half a million dollars. Now, Red Baron Pizza put out a statement saying not only is he not losing his job, he's got a fan club. They put out a tweet. They said he's the employee of the month. He's still here. He's got a fan club, including us. Employee of the month. Nominations are closed. You know why. Now, listen, I don't know who this 18-year-old streamer was, and I don't know who Walt Z is, really. But they are sort of emblematic, at least in feel and vibe. For. For a broad swath of other people in the country, Walt is the guy who matters here. The 18-year-old douchebag really doesn't. Unfortunately, our entire politics is now built around the 18-year-old douchebags, which is just one reason we have a bunch of entitled selfie-addicted idiots running around harassing blue-collar workers for social media clout. We're supposed to care about this Gen Z-er, the same kind of person who is probably complaining he can't get a $22 burrito from Chipotle delivered by hand from an Uber Eats driver. But I think we should be much more worried about the guy. That's a company, for those who don't know, that ships frozen pizza to your local Walmart and then gets sold for $5. We should worry about the guy who buys pizza for $5. You can't afford it. Or the employees who provide that pizza. Not the whiny Gen Z-ers filming them and creating medias about stealing their money who want their $22 burrito. So, one of these guys is struggling to get by, and the other is a spoiled brat, and they are not the same. So, I want to take a step back here and talk about Red Baron, because if you're talking about how to make people. If you're talking about how to make people like Walt Z. more successful, the answer is you make Red Baron more successful. And Red Baron is how America used to work. Red Baron was started in 1952 by a 23-year-old in Minnesota, somebody closer to the age of the cloud chaser. That person started delivering ice cream door-to-door. By the 60s, they branched into frozen pizza. By 1970, they bought a small production facility in Kansas to make their own. And 50 years later, it's one of America's biggest frozen pizza brands. In 2022, they reached a billion dollars in annual retail sales, and they still manufacture. They manufacture over 100 million pizzas a year in Kansas. And again, this is not food that is being delivered to your door by a new-breed striver for $22. A Red Baron pizza costs $3.99 at Kroger and $4.82 at Walmart and under $5 at Target. Did more retail sales than DiGiorno last month. Red Baron, as a business, should be our focus. How do we make them more successful? Walt, as an employee of Red Baron, should be our focus. Red Baron's customers should be our focus. But let's just be real about this. Our entire politics, our entire political discussion these days, is focused on the $22 burrito influencer kit. Why? Two reasons. First of all, it's really, really easy because you never see Walt Z. He's not spending his days on social media cloud chasing. He's actually out there doing a job. Most of our political class is also closer in personality to the 18-year-old cloud chaser than the Red Baron guy. They're not stocking shelves. They're making social media TikTok videos to try and gain the support of the 18-year-olds and go viral on social media. Also, there's an entire cottage industry of political consultants who barely know that the middle-aged white guy who stocks the shelves exists. It is why the polls are routinely understating Trump's support. Political consultants understand that basically what they do is a form of voodoo. Essentially, they create metrics for their own success. The only way political consultants succeed or fail is if their candidate gets elected or doesn't get elected. And they don't know about that until Election Day. So in the whole intervening time, they have to look at fake data. Because there's not a lot of great data on Wall-T. But you know where there is great data on X. You can see precisely how many people have viewed a particular post. Or they can look at polls, which are all within margin of error. They can look at social media likes and replies. So political consulting, those are the people, the experts, the politicians hire. It's very often just a scam enterprise. You tell your politician that they went viral online and this is quote-unquote a win. And then back to our political class. Who do they have more in common with? The kid walking around with a camera looking for viral moments. Or the guy who spends his time on the internet. Or the guy who spends his day loading freezers with frozen pizza. Before having to get up at 5 o'clock in the morning and doing it all again. We all know the answer to that question. The apex predator of the selfie stick generation is actually 65 now. A career useless person we made president. His name was Barack Obama. And you'll recall him ripping on the Cheesecake Factory not all that long ago. Again, the reason that matters is just a sort of cultural indicator. Is because this is always who Barack Obama was. He's a dude who's significantly more likely to spend his evenings at the French Laundry. Than at the Cheesecake Factory. I gotta say, by the way, the Cheesecake Factory. Is like a great American company. And it's all in the name. It is a factory that makes cheesecake. Which is awesome. It's not some Parisian chef in the back. Whipping up a specialized cheesecake for $100. It is a factory that industrially makes cheesecake. It's in the name of the restaurant. But Obama doesn't like that. Because that, of course, is too blue. It's gauche, you see. According to Barack Obama.
Speaker 4He's got the white ass looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory.
Speaker 2I guarantee you that for Walt. And for a lot of people like Walt. The height of luxury is probably taking his family to Cheesecake Factory. Or Olive Garden. By the way, I just gotta say. As somebody who keeps kosher and can't eat at any of these restaurants. They look fabulous. I don't envy eating at sort of the four-star Michelin chef restaurants. I envy being able to walk into a Cheesecake Factory. Or into an Olive Garden. That has literally an endless bowl of pasta. Like eternal pasta. Which sounds incredible. That sounds great. Donald Trump reacted to Obama slamming the Cheesecake Factory. And Obama's response was to basically double down.
Speaker 4That was the interesting thing about how the administration responded to the speech I gave the other day. They did not dispute what I said about them being directly responsible for rising prices. They did not argue with that. They did not deny tariffs were contributing to higher costs for families. They didn't say anything about that. I accused this administration. Based on the facts. That they were engaging in unprecedented levels of corruption. The president wasn't even mad. About the Saddam Hussein comparison. That part didn't bother him. But he was very upset. About the Cheesecake Factory comments.
Speaker 2Ha ha ha ha ha. Well actually what he was. upset about was the idea that again you go after these sort of upscale dining experience of kind of normie americans but again this is typical barack obama back in 2008 was caught on tape saying that americans who didn't like him were people who were bitterly clinging to god and guns and xenophobia people have
Speaker 4been beaten down so long and they feel so betrayed by government now again there's a reason why barack obama has always targeted quote-unquote
Speaker 2the political youth because he agrees he's a selfie stick president he always was and a huge percentage of our current politicians the dsa being the most obvious indicator are people who are programming to the 18 year old cloud chaser not to waltzy they like to pretend by the way that they're programming to waltzy but because they're leading a revolution of the proletariat but people like walt z are not voting for bernie sanders it's a bunch of college educated idiots who are voting for bernie sanders it is not a bunch of blue-collar voters who are voting for bernie sanders now if you are building a political coalition and this goes to the midterm elections and beyond you need to center that political coalition on more waltz and even waltz parents so again vote i've made this argument over the past couple of weeks focusing in both parties focusing in on the 18 to 29 year old vote that is chimerical it is idiotic it makes no sense the recent aarp poll shows that according to the exit polls 50 plus voters cast 55 of all ballots in 2024 59 of all ballots in 2022 more than six and ten turned out in the last midterm in 2022 compared to just three and ten in the last midterm in 2022 people under 30 again young people have always been an overrated part of the american electorate middle-aged men aged 45 to 64 voted trump plus seven in 2020 they voted trump plus 20 in 2024 and that swing accounted for 2.2 percent of the full electorate in 2024 that was 3.4 million net votes those in other words are the people that the politicians should be targeting if they had to vote again the right keeps focusing in on voted biden plus 15 in 2020 trump plus one in 2024 that gigantic swing represented only about 1.7 million votes so like half of what the middle-aged audience represented so again republicans and democrats are making a gigantic error here they're focused in on the 18 year olds if you're on the right you gotta get theo vaughn and his and his gen z and his gen z audience on board and if you're on the left you gotta keep call her daddy on board if you're left gotta make sure those x vibes keep on vibing well when you're looking to take care of your family you need to do responsible things one of those things is obtaining life insurance yeah the reality is that god forbid something happens to you you know your family can't game for your loss but financially there are things that you can do to ease the the problem and this is why policy genius exists their license team helps you understand coverage amounts prices and terms they answer your questions handle the paperwork and advocate for you throughout the entire process policy genius has thousands of five-star reviews on google and trustpilot from customers who found the right policy fit life insurance shouldn't be bought by word of mouth you can just get the best offer possible with policy genius you can find 20-year life insurance policies starring at just 276 bucks a year for a million dollars in coverage heading over to policygenius.com slash shapiro and compare life insurance quotes from top companies see how much you could save i have life insurance my wife has life insurance again it is just the responsible thing for you to do if you have a family you have dependents people who count on you life insurance is a must policy genius is the best way to get it head over to policygenius.com slash shapiro again that's policygenius.com slash shapiro so let's take a second and talk about the 18-year-old cloud chasers okay what the cloud chaser in this video is doing is obviously immoral it's immoral walking up to anyone i don't care if you're rich poor i don't care if you're the white collar executive or if you're the blue collar guy stocking shelves at the walmart walking up to somebody and pretending to steal money from them is disgusting and wrong obviously that is not the case if you're the white collar executive or if you're the blue collar guy it's not a prank it's a piece of delinquency and what's driving all of this morality social media a need for attention boredom these people don't have real jobs and they don't really think they need real jobs apparently they don't have kids yet many of them never intend on having them and what the polls show is that fewer young people than any time in literally all of history now plan on having children and we've now trained entire generations of americans to be this way right if you have sympathy for walt z it's because he has four kids and guess what it makes you a better and more responsible human being to have children and have responsibilities walt z is a better person than the person who's pretending to take money from him for clout and yet we've built an entire society around the idea that we should be apathetic about these concerns an entire entertainment sphere has been created around this so yesterday nikki glazer who is a comedian she was on a podcast with kylie kelsey and she joked about motherhood and and she joked about motherhood and and she joked about motherhood and comparing it to heroin
Speaker 5comparing it to heroin comparing it to heroin it's because they it's that's a great feeling to feel the love that you have for your child it's a feeling i've heard of and it sounds so good it's because they it's that's a great feeling to feel the love that you have for your child it's a feeling i've heard of and it sounds so good and i might not get to feel it and sometimes i get bummed out by that i'm like is this a human life worth living to not feel that great love and then i think about you know you don't get to feel every feeling in life that's good you know like i also have no plans on doing heroin like i hear that feeling's pretty great i hear it's might be better than the kid feeling to be honest with you because i know people who have kids who do heroin and they're like kid schmidt's like leave them in the car let's go get more heroin okay well she
Speaker 2now admits that that kind of joke now she's feeling it again we taught entire generations of people to be the the influencer social clout chasing person the irresponsible person and here's nikki glazer now admitting oh that was a
Speaker 5mistake when i wrote that joke i was still like in my 30s and it's like maybe i could but now i'm 42 and it's like the window the door is closed i didn't freeze my eggs it's done like having my own kids is not something that my body is interested in doing even even accidentally you know so it's not gonna happen for me and if i mean i'm open to adoption and things like that but it's it's to have your own is it's a it's a sad thing to say goodbye to even if you never wanted it and it's something that i'm like dealing with well
Speaker 2yes i mean and if if people had actually engaged in the proper raising of children then we wouldn't have this meaning it is not a matter of moral apathy on a societal level to tell people it is better for you to get married and have kids it is it is better for you and it is better for society for you to get married and have kids now again there are some people for whom this is an obstacle i'm not talking about that i'm not talking about people who have infertility problems i'm not talking about people who've been abused that's not what i'm talking about here when you set a general societal standard on how you turn an 18 who's full person the answer is marriage and children but instead we've crafted an entire society around the idea that this is a matter of at best moral apathy and at worst sinfulness nikki glazer says childless women cheer for her on this podcast sometimes
Speaker 5when i talk about i don't i didn't have kids on stage when like childless women are like and i'm like i'm just kind of like let's calm down with that like i i just i think that because i don't look at myself as like i'm a poster child for like you didn't choose to be a mom go get it girl get your career it just it's not like i chose a career over having kids it really it never occurred to me to have kids it's just it just was never a thing that ever even fluttered into my brain even once like it just never presented itself and so it's not like i'm like pushing it down and i'm choosing this it just wasn't like a thought the flow along the way i mean well typically
Speaker 2speaking that is a result of bad parenting because it should occur to your time they're very young that getting married and having children is the thing that you ought to do as a human being i mean that's something we owe it to the next generation to pass on like all my children except for literally the baby who is not capable of speaking they all understand including the three-year-old that the future is going to be getting married and having children because this is what it means to raise children you're talking about that kind of stuff constantly and yes it is good and yes it is a matter for parents to teach their children we haven't done that and so we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful and we have to be careful or at least a huge swath i don't say all of them but a huge swath of young people who are useless and we're supposed to cater to them and then there's walt so walt is by his own description a working class guy with four kids he is not as we say the seedbed of the revolution right we're being told that the upswing in socialism is coming from walt it is not he is not at least by the average polling data the guy who wants the american health care system torn all the way to the ground or who wants a socialist mamdani revolution he's not watching abdul el sayed doing tiktok dances or agreeing with abdul el sayed that america is the problem in the world he just wants the american life he wants to work a job make a little more money every month get some time off have some upward mobility spend more time with his family and his kids so the question in american politics has always been how do we make that easier now historically speaking there have been two approaches in american politics one sounds good verbally and always fails in the long term and the other sounds not as good and always succeeds in the long term approach number government more regulation more unionization more intervention more subsidization and it sounds great because it sounds easy you want more money well the democrats just print you more money and then they give it to you or they force your employer to do so or they yell at your employer and then if your employer doesn't give you anything then they yell at your employer some more that doesn't work it craters business it destroys economies it incentivizes fraud so we've tried this approach over the course of the past several generations particularly since the 60s and what that has resulted in is a federal debt that now exceeds 100 percent of gross domestic product for the first time since the end of world war ii the federal government according to the wall street journal had previously reported that the publicly held debt as of september 30th was 32.2 trillion dollars with the release of economic output for third quarter thursday that figure equaled 100 percent of gross domestic product over the fiscal year and the outlook is even rougher social security is projected to reach insolvency in 2032 that triggers automatic benefit cuts unless congress acts to either raise taxes or restructure the program net interest costs are projected to climb by more than one percent of gdp over the next decade according to the cbo we are now paying more on our interest on the debt than we pay on our defense budget and by the way this also results in inflation because if the government owes a bunch of money to other people and that debt gets paid in american dollars one way to get out of that dilemma is to inflate the currency and pay back with cheaper dollars which obviously impacts people who are working on a wage so things that sound great in theory in practice suck you're seeing the same thing happen all over the political landscape for democrats in philadelphia for example mayor sherelle parker is now proposing a subprime mortgage program again these are things we've tried before and they have failed and not only failed they've credit
Speaker 6the economy this model thank you for affirming uh massachusetts um it is the only state uh with a with a program like this and philadelphia will be the first city in the nation to unveil it imagine uh getting a mortgage um a 30-year commitment with no pmi so no private mortgage insurance and we have in essence brought down the interest rates but here is the part that's extremely important for the banking industry the city of philadelphia has created what we reference as a loan loss reserve and so we need philadelphians who have less than perfect credit to be able to qualify so if you have a credit score of 620 we want you to uh the lindy industry banking industry to say hey we'll take this risk but the city of philadelphia proper shoulders it again this
Speaker 2is always the democratic platform it is what if the city absorbs the cost and then everything craters this is exactly what we do with subprime mortgages throughout the 2000s what if we just give people who won't be able to pay back their mortgage mortgages and then it turns out that they get upside down on their house and they just abandon their mortgage and they just abandon their mortgage and they just abandon their house and then the entire economy craters we've done this before the el sayed campaign is openly admitting taxes are going to have to radically increase to pay for quote-unquote medicare for all will taxes
Speaker 7go up under medicare for all well certainly but how much is the question i don't know if you even know what that answer and neither does abdul if we go to abdul's medicare for all book that he published in 2020 i've read a good chunk of it um that book is a canadian style single-payer system and what that means is that in canada the government uh there are private health care providers but the government is the insurance plan abdul's book is a canadian style where there are no it you can't it's illegal to set up a different health care system and what that does is it forces everybody on one system and ostensibly it means that you have the widest purchasing power because you have collective bargaining and you you're forcing all of the people with means onto the same plan so if they want it to be good for them they need to make advocate to make sure it's good for everyone well what
Speaker 2does that really mean it means you don't get to pick your doctor you don't get to pick your health care and your taxes go up right that's what we're talking about here everything that always sounds good in the mouth of democrats turns out to be horrible in actual practice and by the way incentivizes everything from illegal immigration to tremendous fraud speaking of illegal immigration abdul el sayed himself says that under his medicare for all plan people who enter the country illegally will be paid for by the american taxpayer
Speaker 8should undocumented folks be eligible for federal health care plans so we want to
Speaker 9make sure that you know to me is if you pay in then the program's there for you if you pay in right so undocumented or documented it's about if you pay in but here's the thing i want to get to a world where there's not a conversation about undocumented everybody has a pathway forward but there is i get it i get it and my point is just this if you are paying into the system right the idea is that the system is there if you pay in right you paid in if you paid into the system if you paid into the system if you paid in okay okay um so
Speaker 2just going to point out again this is the result of democratic programs and they're not designed for the blue collar person they lie and they say there are but they definitely are not the programs incentivize fraud they incentivize inflation they incentivize debt that's what they do and they kill by the way the very businesses that people like walt z works for there won't be an employee of the month if democrats had their way in terms of industrial regulation for example well walt looks like a great employee you know somebody who's working hard to do the thing he is supposed to do you need great employees but it's hard to find great employees i mean really it is and this is why zip recruiter is out there it's the best way to find qualified people who are genuinely excited about the role you're offering zip recruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested qualified candidates first so you meet the right people faster candidates can tell you in their own words why they're excited about your job which you need you don't just need somebody who fits the bill you need somebody who wants to work where you need them combine that with zip recruiters powerful matching technology you can find the best candidates quickly we've used zip recruiter here at the daily wire for years to find some of the great people who work here let zip recruiter find the right people for your role seasonal or otherwise try it for free right now at zip recruiter.com daily wire that zip recruiter.com daily wire again if you have a business and you need better employees or new employees zip recruiter is the way to do it try it for free right now at zip recruiter.com daily wire again that's zip recruiter.com daily wire meet your match on zip recruiter well speaking of fraud the daily wire has a shocking story today from luke rosiak the story is about again medicaid scams quote ram kumar shetri has a routine every morning at 6 a.m he pulls into the driveway of a nearby home sits in the car for two or three minutes and then leaves at 5 p.m he does the same drives up fiddles with his phone in the driver's seat and then returns home why does he do this every day pennsylvania allows poor elderly people to steer government medicaid payments to their relatives or friends for helping them cook clean and perform other everyday in-home tasks its version of the program is so generous that home care is now the most common profession in the state a home care aid only has to do one thing to get the state to pay out use a gps enabled phone app that confirms the worker is at his client's house when he clocks in and when he clocks out to anyone checking the system shetri a bhutanese refugee appears to be working 11 hours a day seven days a week caring for an elderly person work that unleashes 82 000 in government payments in reality he seems to spend five minutes a day in her driveway the daily wire amassed months of footage of shetri doing this like clockwork as he left one afternoon he gave a smile and a wave before lighting up a cigarette as he piloted his electric car at the turtle-like pace of a man with nothing to do no show home care is so common in pennsylvania it's no longer viewed as something to hide in august the federal dea arrested a drug trafficker in the state who asked the agents to let him out of handcuffs so he could clock out of the home health shift he was supposedly working when they pointed out this was illegal he seemed confused saying quote everyone is doing this if this is a problem you have to arrest the entire state again this is what the predations of big government actually mean in real terms massive fraud massive gaming of the system and let's be clear about this the democrats don't care they don't care about any of this they don't care about it when it comes to immigration either the new york times is a shocking report today about ilhan omar it turns out that under barack obama the fbi and department of homeland security investigated her fra her almost certain fraudulent marriage to her gay brother that case stalled chiefly because prosecutors concluded the potential crime of felony fell outside a five-year statute of limitations according to the current and former officials most of whose law enforcement careers span several presidential administrations in august of 2016 according to the times a local news station reported the u.s attorney's office in minnesota had opened an investigation into ilhan omar that prompted the campaign to form a crisis management committee according to a lawyer who represented omar in a 2018 deposition a means to quash it came in october and in august of 2016 when the campaign released a letter it requested from andrew luger then u.s attorney in minnesota in the three sentence letter luger wrote quote my office is not investigating nor have we requested an investigation into miss omar but in an interview last week luger said the letter was never meant to say anything about the substance of the claims instead it was narrowly written to rebut the news station's report luger had asked ice to investigate miss omar which he called erroneous after the letter became public local news coverage waned so basically this u.s attorney killed the news coverage of what very obviously seemed to have happened which is that she fake married her gay brother to get him into the country and then it failed by the way last week barack obama called a raid on her immigration status appalling quoted as a basic principle of american democracy that the government can't selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say but that's exactly what the trump administration is doing to congresswoman ilhan omar of minnesota this is So appalling, he said it was his administration who literally was looking into whether she married her brother. Which apparently she did. And by the way, the New York Post is reporting that her actual Muslim husband was quite upset with her brother. Her brother came and lived with them. He wasn't upset that she was married to her brother. He was upset that her brother was gay and living with them. Quote, Ilhan Omar's first husband was embarrassed when her effeminate brother, who she is accused of marrying, came to live with them in Minnesota. A family friend told the Post. The congresswoman had two young children with Ahmed Hirsi when she suddenly split from him in 2009. She then quickly married an extremely feminine Somali guy from London, Ahmed Nur Saeed Elmi, fond of wearing short shorts with cowboy boots. One of Hirsi's close friends claimed Omar and her first husband were actually still together and Elmi suddenly moving in caused strain on their relationship. The whole community was gossiping about Elmi when he first arrived, said the source, who's walking around in tight female clothing, which is heavily frowned upon in the Somali community. So I went to ask Ahmed about it. He told me it was his wife's brother from London and that Ilhan had, quote, embarrassed all of us by bringing him here. Ahmed used very strong words and said it was disgusting. So, you know, the immigration fraud, that was one thing. But the brother being flamboyantly gay in the Somali community, that was the thing. By the way, Ilhan Omar, she has no leg to stand on here. This is the same lady who has repeatedly called for Donald Trump to be prosecuted, like over and over and over again. All on March 30th, 2023, when Mar-a-Lago was raided. Our democracy rests on the rule of law. When someone, no matter how powerful they are, is suspected of a criminal act, our justice system investigates, charges and convicts them in accordance with due process. Yes, that is true. Vice President of the United States, Shady Vance, was on Fox News with Jesse Waters. And he talked about the possibility of prosecuting Ilhan Omar.
Speaker 10When the New York Times says that you maybe married your brother and you're a Democrat, maybe you married your brother. Yeah, I mean, look what we've tried to do in this case. And people always. Ask me, you know, what's going to happen? What's the result? And I say, I honestly don't know, because in the Trump administration, we don't prejudge. We let the facts and the law drive these decisions. But if you look at some of the people that we've gotten prosecutions of, I think you do see evidence that finally an American government is taking the corruption seriously. And a lot of the public servants who have betrayed the public trust, they're being investigated. Some of them are being prosecuted and some of them are going to spend time in jail because if you violate the public trust, that's what you should do. But remember, all of
Speaker 2your betters, all the 18 year olds with selfie sticks who are now 45 and on late night TV, they say you're racist. If you care about any of this, that was Jimmy Kimmel's play yesterday with regard to, say, the opposition to Abdul El-Sayed, a clear Muslim Brotherhood fellow traveler.
Speaker 11Remember when racism was supposed to be a secret, like they'd whisper this stuff in their foursome on the golf course to each other while they were looking around like this? Now it's your grandpa's Facebook page live on stage every day. They keep saying El-Sayed is part of the Muslim Brotherhood. This guy was born in Rochester Hills, Michigan, and played high school lacrosse. He played lacrosse, football and hockey, the three widest sports there are. Oh, my God. What is he hiding in those goalie pads?
Speaker 2Oh, it's all it's all just it's all just fake because, you know, he played hockey. Sure, his dad and his mom and pretty much everybody. Everybody associated with him is a Muslim Brotherhood fellow traveler. And sure, he agrees with basically all the principles of the Muslim Brotherhood. But but it must be racism, obviously. Again, this is the game. I have a question. Is any of that designed to make Walt Z's life better? Any of that? Barack Obama, meanwhile, is in Georgia saying that he's worried about high health care premiums. Well, if only he had been president and then rammed through a thing called actual Obamacare, which was designed to bring down those premiums. And he failed.
Speaker 4We need to rein in the cost of child care. We need to rein in the cost of high health care so those same young families can afford it. We've got to make sure that nobody has to worry about high health care premiums. We we have a lot of work to do. And and I understand people's frustrations. I get the anger. I get the cynicism because the system's not working the way it's supposed to. Partly because of gerrymandering. I have laws like Citizens United that that allow rich and powerful people to try and buy and sell elections like never before. Hundreds of millions of dollars just pouring into elections. Partly because we've got a Republican Party now that it used to stand for smaller government and now seems to stand for corrupt government or inept government.
Speaker 2OK, so I'm just wondering. You opposed the Republican Party when it stood for small government. You opposed it ardently. You and Paul Ryan were like enemies. Pretty incredible. Just remember, we have two proposals on the table. One is big government and that results in, you know, never doing anything useful. California, the high speed rail chief has now quit. According to the New York Times. Amid criticism, following a recent state report that found the agency had misused roughly 600 grand to pay for the travel of outside consultants. Crews have so far broken ground in the government. They have now been fined $1,000,000 a year. They've been fined $2,000,000 a year. originally approved. It was projected to cost $33 billion and be completed by 2020. We checked a calendar. It is no longer 2020. It is 2026. The latest estimates have pushed the opening date to 2040 and the cost to a range between $126 billion and $231 billion. Okay. So again, there are two approaches to the problems of Volzi. One is high regulation, high taxation, high government interventionism, and the other is free markets and private property. You know, the thing that made Red Baron a big company and allowed it to hire many people like Walt Z and make him employee of the month. That is a better approach. And it turns out that when phrased properly, people actually like that approach. When it comes to, for example, cutting taxes and government spending, 66% of Americans say they favor decreasing taxes. That includes 67% of Democrats who would like to see taxes decreased. How about increasing government spending now, decreasing it or keeping it the same. 69% of Republicans say that government spending should be decreased. 71% of Democrats say it should be decreased. 73% of independents say it should be decreased. It turns out that when you explain to people how economics works, they're actually capable of understanding it. As the actor Tim Allen says, the balanced budget is very scary to politicians. They ignore it. Grow a spine into your job. He happens to be right about all of that. Now, it turns out that a more deregulatory economy is stronger. There are some good Q3 GDP stats that came out yesterday that would be even better if we didn't have a gigantic tariff regime that was in place or government investitures in specific businesses. Obviously, foreign conflict plays into it also. But as I've said about foreign conflict, that's sort of a different category because you got to keep America safe. According to CNBC, the U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter that's faster than expected and well ahead of 2.2% growth in the second quarter. Okay, so elections matter, obviously, right? We're going to take one of these paths, the path of regulation, of pandering to the revolutionaries, or path two, which is sort of the traditionally American free market path. So where are we right now? So let's take a look at sort of where we are in this election cycle. Well, the CalSheet markets, of course, they're our sponsors. They point out that the Democratic Party currently apparently has a 70% shot of taking the Senate, those odds have been rapidly rising since essentially the end of the summer. It'll be interesting to see, you know, how that actually materializes. 43 million votes have already been cast nationally in early voting, about half mail-in and half in person. Turnout is up across the board compared to 2022, except in Iowa. In the battleground states for the Senate, 46% of early votes are registered Democrats, 40% are GOP, 14% are independent. If you go state by state, you can see where Republicans still have a sort of built-in advantage. So states that are going to be really, really just serious battles main. Right now, Democrats lead Republicans by about 74,000 early ballots. Probably in this state, when it comes to final voter turnout, somewhere between 375,000 to 475,000 votes are still outstanding, right? Either will be voted absentee or will be voted day of. Republicans probably need to win somewhere around 60% of the remaining votes in order to win that election. Can Susan Collins pull that off? She certainly could. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but you can see why some people think that's an uphill battle. Michigan is actually a slightly better story for Republicans. Right now, Democrats lead Republicans by about 241,000 early ballots. About 1.7 million ballots have cast so far. They lean Democrat by a 14 percentage point margin. Right now, there's somewhere between 2.8 million and 3.3 million votes remaining. The GOP needs to win 54% or above of the remaining vote. Could that happen? I mean, considering the day of balloting tends to shift heavily Republican. Absolutely. In Ohio, Democrats lead Republicans right now by about 70,000 in the early balloting, but there's still between 2.9 and 3.4 million votes remaining. The GOP needs to win probably a bare majority, about 52% or above of the remaining votes in order to hold that Ohio seat. In Iowa. Democrats lead Republicans by about 52,000 early ballots. However, again, the GOP only needs to win 52% of the remaining ballots in order to win that election. In Texas, James Tallarico has a really uphill battle. Republicans are actually leading Democrats by 61,000 early ballots right now. Somewhere between 2.9 and 3.9 million votes are remaining. On the low end, theoretically, the Republicans could even slightly lose the remaining outstanding vote and still win. Because, again, Texas is extremely, extremely Republican. So this brings us to the latest polling. So CNN released a batch of polls, and let's just say these polls are dicey at best. First of all, each one of these polls is a very, very high margin of error, like a five-point margin of error minimum. The sample size is pretty small, 700 to 900. So to understand how polls work, you have to understand margin of error. Margin of error just means the more people you sample, the more chance it is that that is representative of a broader population. Obviously, if you could sample the entire population, your margin of error would basically be zero. Because now you know what everybody thinks. The question is how you build the representative population. So that has two components. One is the size of the sample, the larger the sample, the closer you're going to get to representation. But that relies on a given, which is that you are composing your actual voting base properly. So you have to estimate what you think the final voting base is going to look like in order for it to be representative. So, for example, if you have a poll of 7,000 Republicans and it shows 7,000 people voting for Susan Collins in Maine, that does not mean that 100% of people in Maine are going to vote for Susan Collins, right? Your sample has been poorly drawn. So you have to draw the proper sample and then you have to have a big sample size to have a really, really well-drawn poll. CNN makes mistakes on both these grounds. And this is why, again, just assume that all the following states are within margin of error because they basically are. So in Michigan, the RealClearPolitics polling average has El Sayed up by about 3.2 points. CNN has El Sayed up 7. The current sample is 50% Democrats and 43% Republican. Now, CNN attributes the El Sayed plus 7 finding to, quote, that lead rests on worsening views of Rogers as well as consolidated support among Democrats following the state's contentious August primary. But we should point out that the sample is only 768 voters and the margin of error is 5 points. So theoretically, this thing could easily be a tie or Rogers could be up. Now, fascinatingly, that same CNN poll shows for Mike Rogers supporters, they say they're voting to stop El Sayed, not to support Rogers. And now what does that sort of indicate? Well, there could be a sort of buried lead there. So for El Sayed supporters, they've already moved from supporting Rogers, from opposing Rogers to supporting El Sayed. In August, September, 31% of the people supporting El Sayed said they were doing it to oppose Rogers. Today, only 24% do. Among Rogers supporters, the opposite. 41% said in August, September, they were voting for Rogers to support, to oppose El Sayed. Today, almost 6 in 10 say they're doing it to oppose El Sayed. That seems to be a bit of a buried lead because that means a lot of the Mike Rogers support, I'll bet, is coming from independents and Democrats who are crossing over. Again, that chart is coming from a 7.4% margin of error. So the CNN polling is, I would say, a little bit garbage in, garbage out. Same with regard to Texas. CNN poll says Tallarico is up 6 against Ken Paxton. But the RealClearPolitics polling average has Tallarico up 2.1. The sample is more Democratic than GOP, which is a little strange considering that, again, Texas is a heavily Republican state. In Maine, CNN has Troy Jackson up 4. That is tripling RCP's average. In Kansas, they have Adam Hamilton, the Democrat, up 4, which is well above the RealClearPolitics polling average. So let's take a look at sort of how this breaks down more specifically. So we're going to look at some of the factors that require us to see how much sort of these states are moving. So if we use the current RealClearPolitics polling averages for 2026 elections as the actual outcomes of each race, Texas, Iowa, and Maine are polling kind of where history would predict. Republican incumbent races in Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina are polling significantly more Democratic than what history would predict. So this right here is a graph. It shows how big a swing each poll requires compared to prior president to midterm swings, meaning presidential election happens, then there's a midterm. Usually the party in power loses. There's some points between the two, but the swing in most states is of moderate size. So, for example, right now, Michigan is polling within sort of a normal variance. Maine is also polling within a normal variance. But the normal swing that would be required here by the polling is a 16 point swing in Kansas, a 16 point swing in Texas, a 16 point swing in South Carolina, a 15 point swing in Ohio, a 14 point swing in Alaska, and a 13 point swing in Iowa. All right. So that means that's how much of a swing you would need away from the 2024 result for today's polls to be correct. And swings of that size historically are rare. It doesn't happen that much. And as you can see on this chart, the dots show how often this happens. So, you know, there are a lot of six point swings, a lot of eight point swings, not a lot of 16 point swings. There are a few 14 point swings, not a ton. Most of the swings are within that zero to four percent range. OK, so again, you need a real outlier election for the Democrats to win Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, Ohio, Alaska or Iowa. And now here is one more graph. This one uses a regression analysis to show how each race might end up based on the 2024 presidential vote, Trump's approval rating and incumbency. In Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and South Carolina, the polls, in other words, are running significantly more Democratic than historical trends in each state would suggest. There would have to be a massive shift. So to take an example, Texas. 2016 to today's polls. So in 2016. Trump was plus nine over Clinton. In 2018, Cruz beat Beto O'Rourke by 2.6. In 2020, John Cornyn won by almost 10 points. That same year, Trump won by about six points over Joe Biden. So, you know, fairly close. Mirroring. In 2024, Cruz beat Colin Allred by about nine points and Trump won by about 14 points. So what you would sort of expect. Is that this would stick in the normal Texas range. Democrats would need to experience a massive, unprecedented swing in order to win that state. So this is why I say when you look at the polls that are coming out right now, one thing that you ought to understand is that many of the polling outfits, number one, are grouping because they want to be part of the narrative. But number two. Polls affect. How people vote. This is why it used to be pretty common, you know, 25 years ago for various companies to release their exit polls the day of elections. And then in many countries, it became illegal to do that because it affects how the actual voting is going to go. Well, understand that's happening with the polling right now. Do not be discouraged from voting because the CNN polls say a thing. They are very likely to be in error. They are very likely, even if they're not in error, to be within the margin of error. So just don't do all of this. By the way. It just shows you where the media are more generally speaking in the media story of the day. It really is pretty astonishing in the media story of the day. Fox News is reporting that Barry Weiss is facing significant resistance inside CBS News. Why? Well, because she keeps asking them to do things like do news. According to Fox News, CBS News editor in chief, Barry Weiss, faced, quote, significant resistance from staff at Thursday's 9 a.m. meeting about the growing Alaska ballot controversy. Network insiders told Fox News Digital. Weiss pointed out that what's happening in Alaska is a scandal. Now, remember, we did a lot of the show yesterday on this. What happened in Alaska? Basically, the Democratic Party recruited a person with the same name as the Republican candidates to run in the very, very tight Alaska Senate race. Draw away a few thousand votes caused Dan Sullivan, the actual real Dan Sullivan, to lose because some other schlub named Daniel J. Sullivan is also on the ballot. That was the entire goal. And Weiss said, this is a scandal. You should investigate it. And her staffers went crazy, apparently. Many on the call shrugged it off as routine politics. And said Republicans have also engaged in similar scheming. When Weiss asked for other examples of ballot confusion, Face the Nation moderator Margaret Brennan pointed to New Hampshire Senate candidate John Sununu, suggesting that midterm voters might confuse him with his brother, former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. Well, that's an incredibly dumb example, Margaret Brennan. I'm so confused. Is John Sununu not running? Is he not a legit candidate? That's like saying that Bobby Kennedy running for president might confuse people because John F. Kennedy was once the president. What the hell? That is not the same thing by any stretch of the imagination and shows you where Margaret Brennan is politically. I promise you that if Republicans found another candidate named Sherrod Brown to run in Ohio and put that guy on the ballot, Democrats would be screaming bloody murder and the media would be up in arms. CBS News political correspondent Ed O'Keefe said nothing was new. Earlier that morning, O'Keefe stressed to viewers that what happened in Alaska, quote, could be a dirty trick, but it's not illegal. Adding, this has happened. happened before, kind of. Funny how fast do they run to, it's happened before, kind of. when it clearly has not really happened very much before, like at all. But the point here is that Barry Weiss is just asking her team to do news and they're very mad about it. They're very, very angry that Barry Weiss is asking them to do news. Every time, in fact, Barry Weiss asks her team to do news, they get pissed and then they leak it to somebody. Which is why, you know, again, if I had been advising Barry Weiss when she took over CBS News, she should have gone in there with a hatchet and fired three quarters of the staff. Because it turns out an enormous number of these people are just hacks. Let them go to Substack and build their own constituency. If they're that good at the news. But legacy media going to legacy media and even when you put somebody in there to correct it, they're still going to face some fairly strong systemic obstacles. Now, meanwhile, the influencer wars are upon us with regard to politics. Nicki Minaj has come out and she's activating the barbs against Kathy Hochul. Quote, Kathy Hochul is an evil woman that, of course, the governor of New York running for reelect. The Democratic Party should forfeit her seat because even if she wins, she'll be of great consequence to them. Downward spiral for her. She will not escape God's wrath. She did not denounce evil when she had a chance. And then Kathy Hochul responded to Nicki Minaj. Here she was.
Speaker 12You should get outside. Stop going to Trump rallies. She says, stop going
Speaker 2to Trump rallies. It's poisoning your mind. Um, I mean, is it though? I mean, you're, you're not, you're not good. Exactly. Also, she's very excited to tout a potential Cardi B endorsement. So Nicki Minaj bad, Cardi B good is the way that this works.
Speaker 12You know, I don't play games in this business. This is serious. And if people want to support me, they're welcome to. In fact, Nicki Minaj supported me back when I ran for lieutenant governor the last time. So you can ask her what, what she's been, what, what, how she's been poisoned by Donald Trump.
Speaker 2Again, amazing. Nicki Minaj apparently is not enough a person to think for herself. She must've been poisoned by Donald Trump, but Cardi B, that serious stuff. You need the lady who literally brags that she drugged and robbed men. That lady is the one you want on your side. Meanwhile, Zoran Mamdani, the influencer kid made mayor of New York. He's out there reacting to all of this.
Speaker 8Nicki Minaj came out and sort of tore into governor Hochul.
Speaker 13Can you believe that's a sentence?
Speaker 8So Nicki's beef in the rap world is with Cardi B, who you have come out with in support of your 2K program. Wondering what your reaction is to Nicki coming into the governor. If you're hoping to see Cardi, you know, come out in support of her and just your reaction to all of this going on.
Speaker 13I think it's hard to believe that it's all real.
Speaker 2No, it's hard to believe that it's all real. Well, I'm here. You were back in April campaigning with Cardi B, dude.
Speaker 13Cardi, what do you think about free child care? I feel like free child care is very important. Sometimes us women, we can't really go forward because we don't have nobody to help us take care of our kids. This fall, we're starting to deliver Universal 2K. Yes. Which is just like pre-K, just like 3K, but 2K for two-year-olds. Yes. Free child care, 2,000 seats in the fall. Wow. And there are going to be seats in the Bronx. Starting it up. Shout out to the BX. And enrollment actually starts in June. Wow. And we had a question for you. Yes. We're going to have a competition to create. We're going to have a competition to create a jingle. Oh, really? Yeah. So New Yorkers are going to submit their best jingle. Oh, wow. And we wanted to know if you would help judge that competition. Oh, I will judge it for sure. Cardi's going to help you. Yes, I'm going to help you. By judging this competition. No, the mayor's going to help you. And I'm going to judge, and he's going to give, he's the one with the fun.
Speaker 2I'm Donnie Smarm Factory. I'm sure that the Walt Z's of the world are deeply concerned about the jingle competition via Cardi B and Zoran Mamdani. Again, we are just doing politics wrong in this country. We just are. Already coming up, we'll get into the latest in Venezuela, where actual good things are happening. And a little bit of a white pill over here. We'll get to that in a moment, but you have to become a Daily Wire member. Now, as I've been saying for weeks, we have so much good stuff for you when you're a Daily Wire member. Like so much good stuff coming. We have Election Wire that is available right now at our election hub. And we're going to have massive election coverage, obviously next week. We'll be doing it all together, basically all night long. We'll be telling you how things are going, giving you our analysis of the politics of the day. And then we have Confession, our biggest release, our best release that we've ever done as a company. And then we have much, much more coming in the near future. Can't wait to tell you about that. New hosts, new content, new movies, like amazing, amazing stuff. There's never been a better time to become a member. So do it right now. Become a member. Use code Shapiro at checkout. Two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us.
Speaker 14We'll see you next week. And they brought me here and they tell me nothing. What have I done? Article 58, counter-revolutionary activity.
Speaker 15That is all I know. They have to deal with so many enemies of the state, all of whom claim their innocence, who protest, who cry. There are no answers here other than the ones they put in your mouth. You'll break. Today is your opportunity to demonstrate your loyalty to the people.
Speaker 14You'd like to know why I'm here?
Speaker 15Of course. But you already know, don't you?
Speaker 14You must believe in something greater than the party. You will remember your duty. I told you I know nothing. Lay ground like a feral animal.
Speaker 5You stink of failure.
Speaker 14You want me to lie.
Speaker 5Still a drunk.
Speaker 14Damn you! They all break.
Speaker 3Maybe. You're a drunk.
PodcastTranscript AI