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Speaker 3Take a look here. The GOP's best party registration position relative to the Democrats in the midterm in at least 20 years. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona. The bottom line is this. Republicans right now are in a much stronger position than they have been not just compared to eight years ago, but they have been in a much stronger position than they have been not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good.
Speaker 1So you probably had not heard that little factoid until we just played it because we're in the middle of a big demoralization operation that's designed to get Republicans not to vote, right? It's headline after headline. Doom is coming. Disaster. Republicans are about to be crushed. Is that true? Or is that wish casting? And if it gets repeated enough, does it kind of become reality? Okay, so Republicans, right? We're about to get wiped out. Destroyed. Tsunami. Meteor level destruction. Dogs and cats living together. The end of the world. Or maybe, maybe, maybe not. So I want to take a quick survey of the Senate races. Because again, what we keep hearing over and over again is that it's the end of the world. That Republicans are going to lose all these Senate seats. They're going to end up with zero Senate seats and Democrats will end up with 100. So the House, yeah, that one's pretty good. Pretty much a foregone conclusion because Republicans only have to lose two seats to lose the House. So get ready for Speaker Hakeem Jeffries. God love us. But the Senate tells a different story. As I've been saying, every single major Senate race is within the margin of error. So I'm looking at the poll numbers right now. In Michigan, where Abdulrahman El-Sayed is running against Mike Rogers. And according to that RealClearPolitics polling average, El-Sayed is running about 3.2 points ahead. But all of the latest polls are showing this thing within margin of error. Qantas. Qantas has El-Sayed up one, but the margin of error is 3.9. YouGov has El-Sayed up one, but the margin of error is 2.5. Trafalgar has him up two. Margin of error, 2.9. Fox News has him up one. Margin of error, three. So again, all margin of error. But in the prediction markets, these wanted prediction markets, places like our sponsors over at CalSheet, it's 69% to 31% in favor of El-Sayed. I gotta say, these polls don't justify that. And I do recall when El-Sayed was running against Haley Stevens, and he was a 99% shot to win that race. And that turned out to be kind of a demoralization operation on behalf of Abdulrahman El-Sayed. Because it turns out, if you tell everybody that Haley Stevens has no shot, some marginal number of people are going to not show up to vote for her. And that marginal number of people is all that separated her from actually becoming the Democratic nominee in that state. This is why I say, I am not sure by any stretch of the imagination that El-Sayed's in the lead. The Democrats are bringing Obama to Michigan for a reason. If you were well ahead, if you were way ahead, the way Roy Cooper is way ahead in North Carolina, then Barack Obama would not be descending on Michigan to campaign with El-Sayed. Also, Michigan shows a pattern of Republicans outperforming final polling averages in recent presidential and also senatorial elections. In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton was pulling 3.4% ahead, and then Trump won the state by 0.3 percentage points. In 2024, Harris was pulling ahead by half a point, and then Trump won by 1.4. And again, with El-Sayed's primary early, this year, he was ahead 10 points in the real core politics polling average, and he won by one. So, I am not under any sort of certainty that El-Sayed wins that seat against Mike Rogers. There's a big debate that's coming up between El-Sayed and Mike Rogers that's going to make a world of difference. And you've already seen El-Sayed trying to run away from the thing that distinguishes him as a candidate, namely the fact that he radically supports terrorism and loves pretty much every terror group and can't determine the difference for the United States between Israel and Iran. And the fact that he campaigns with the Sunpiker. He's been walking away from that stuff. He's trying to run away from that stuff, screaming. I don't think Michiganders are stupid enough to let him fall for it. Okay, move on to Maine. That would be a Republican pickup, by the way. Republicans right now have 53 senators. That would take them to 54. Okay, Maine, you have Susan Collins running against Troy Jackson. Troy Jackson looks like he has bodies hidden in his basement. Somehow, the Democrats in Maine came up with a candidate even less attractive than Graham Plattner, who actually probably did have bodies in his basement. Troy Jackson is a gigantic weirdo. Like a very, very weird man who cuts weird ads. And Susan Collins is perhaps the most professional campaigner in modern American history. She's been basically set to lose her Senate seat a dozen times over at this point, and she wins every single time. In fact, the last time she ran in 2020, she won 51% of the vote. A late Emerson poll had her opponent beating her by six. A Pan-Atlantic poll showed her opponent up by seven, and she won 51%. She ended up winning her seat by like eight points in that race. In 2014 and 2008, she won Maine by between 60% and 68%. So again, she's a tough campaigner, and right now, if you look at that real political politics polling average, Troy Jackson, the gigantic weirdo who may in fact have paintings of clowns in his house, he's up 0.7%. That's a dead tie. Marist has him up four, but the margin of error is four. CBS News, tie. Traffler, tie. Coefficient, Collins up two. NPRC Jackson up two. Insider Advantage, tie. Tie goes to Susan Collins. Susan Collins in Maine. That's how this works. Okay, so move on, by the way, to Texas. So in Texas, which of course is the big Democratic hope for pickup, the real political politics polling average has James Tallarico, the weird howdy-doody Texas candidate who somehow knows his favorite drag queen. He is up 2.8 percentage points in Texas according to that real political politics polling average. And again, the RCP polling average is a good way of sort of drawing a middle line. That's what an average is, but it's also taking in all the data, including outlier polls and kind of churning it through the machine. It prevents the outlier poll from defining the aggregate, but that outlier poll can in fact tug and yank the entire average out of whack. So take a look at the last two polls from the polling average. YouGov has Tallarico up six, 50 to 44, margin of error three. But Rasmussen has this one point race in favor of Tallarico, margin of error three. Fox News says 51, 49 Tallarico, margin of error three. Big data poll has 47, 44, five Tallarico margin of error too. So again, dead heat, dead heat. And there are a lot, a lot of times in the recent past when Democrats seem to be polling pretty well in Texas. And then it turns out that Texas is still comprised of Texans. So, for example, in 2024, Ted Cruz was running against Colin Allred, who was a moderate Democrat, and he beat him by four points. Colin Allred was basically in a dead heat. Greg Abbott outperformed Beto O'Rourke for governor in 2022. Beto, when he ran against Ted Cruz, was polling much higher than he finished against Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, Tallarico seems to have disappeared a little bit lately. He hasn't been seen in a campaign event for the past 12 days or so. I don't know, maybe it's a drag queen clown convention that he felt the deep necessity to attend. It's possible that he had to go to a Bible seminar where the Bible was forbidden. He says he got the flu. It's also possible that he has a narrow lead. He's kind of sitting on the narrow lead. He doesn't want to make a lot of big mistakes. One of those mistakes, by the way, would be taking a lot of money from Reid Hoffman. Reid Hoffman, of course, the tech investor. And now people are starting to notice that Reid Hoffman had. had a nasty history of hanging out with, say, Jeffrey Epstein. Now, again, one of the things that's happened with a lot of prediction markets is people take prediction markets as sort of a gospel truth. If someone is up in the prediction markets, that means they're definitely going to win. First of all, people don't know how to read percentages, just as a general rule. This is a point Nate Silver, the sort of pollster extraordinaire, has made in the past. He has said, if you tell somebody that they have a 60% shot of something happening, their brain immediately goes to, it's going to happen. 100% shot. 60 equals 100. No, no, no. 60 equals 60. It means that six in 10 times, a thing will happen. But four in 10 times, a thing will not happen. And if you take it to a context where people take things pretty seriously, say, death, you know this. So if I say, eat this cupcake, you have a 60% shot of living. You're not going to eat the cupcake because you immediately assume you have a 40% shot at death. If I tell you, however, that James Tallarico has a 65% shot at winning, you immediately go, oh, he's probably going to win. He's for sure going to win. No, it means that he has a 65% shot at winning. Maybe. And again, that's just in the prediction markets. Okay, move on over to Iowa. So Iowa, you have Ashley Hinson versus Josh Turek. Turek is about as good a candidate as Democrats have put up this election cycle. He's sort of a blue dog Democrat, pretends to be moderate on issues, including trans and immigration. In the real-world politics, polling average is essentially a dead heat. Turek is up 0.7%, but CNN has Hinson up two. Stuffolk has Turek up, four, but a poll with a margin of error is 4.4. Margin of error for people not familiar with statistical categories and calculations, that just means that if a poll says 48-44 Turek, it theoretically could be 48-44 Hinson. There's an error within which any outcome within that sort of margin of error is possible, equally possible, by the way. So if it says 48-44 Turek, that means that- That poll could theoretically be 52-40 in favor of Turek, or it could theoretically be 48-44 in favor of Hinson. That's what a margin of error is. So you really have to keep your eye on the margin of error when you look at these polls, because again, polls are just calculations of statistics and how those statistics work actually matters in real life. New York Times-CNN, by the way, has Hinson up one. And yet, if you look at Calshi, Calshi actually, on this one, they say 56% shot that Hinson won. Okay. So again, if you take a look at this, even if you look at just the Calshi markets, the Calshi markets right now are suggesting that El Sayed is going to beat Rogers. They're suggesting that Jackson is going to win. Again, I don't think that's true. They're suggesting that Tallarico is going to win. So that would hand the Democrats, the Senate, right off the bat, basically, because they're also going to win North Carolina. But they're suggesting that the Republicans hold Iowa. In Alaska, the real crop politics polling average has Mary Kaltola, who's running against Senator Dan Sullivan. Up 1.2 percentage points. But again, look at the polling inputs. Alaska survey research is 51-49 Peltola with a three-point margin of error. So that's called the dead heat. Qantas, 48-47 Sullivan by margin of error for dead heat. New York Times-CNN, 50-43 Peltola, but the margin of error is 5.1 points, which is really a very large margin of error and puts a possibility of a Republican victory basically on nice edge there. Coefficient says 41-49 Peltola. New York Times-CNN, 50-43 Peltola, but the margin of error is 5.1 points, which is really a 49-46 Sullivan. 3.5 percentage point margin of error, by the way. The calcium markets suggest a 76-24 Democratic advantage in that seat. But again, I don't think that those prediction markets are, shall we say, in these cases, always predictive. So here is the thing. None of this data makes a lot of sense because there's also data suggesting close races in, say, Kansas, close races in, say, New Hampshire. Our friend Clay Travis had a good tweet about this. He said, New Hampshire and Minnesota to be super close Senate races and Nebraska, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas to also be close. The polling is way off somewhere. I'm betting it's way off in favor of Democrats like normal. Go vote. That seems right to me. It'd be a very weird election cycle where Minnesota, where Michelle Tafoya is running an excellent race against the psychotic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. It's impossible for Minnesota to be one point apart, but also for Kansas to be one point apart. That would be super duper weird. And so I think some of these races are being mispolled. I think that there's a narrative that's being built. Now, Nate Silver, by the way, is saying the same thing. He's saying that this happens at the end of every election cycle, that a bunch of pollsters kind of start following each other around. They don't want to be the outlier poll. So if everybody in poll land is saying Democrats swamp, then all of a sudden you're going to start seeing other pollsters who congregate around that and also say that Democrats are going to swamp. Here's Nate Silver saying that.
Speaker 4They do the same shit they always do, right? Why would you want to wait until the last minute? To shift all your forecast, right? Look, I like the people individually at these agencies, and they have a good track record of what we would call discrimination in the business, not the bad kind of discrimination, but meaning you distinguish relatively stronger and weaker cases. But yeah, the whole notion that there is a Democratic surge now, no, the environment's been pretty good for Democrats all year. To the extent there was a surge, it came after Labor Day with this latest round of gas price increases. But to say, oh, now things are, like, now things are just, they've been good, they've been really good for Democrats ever since Labor Day. And that hasn't changed appreciably over the past, like, week or something.
Speaker 1Okay, so again, what he is saying is that what you're seeing is late-breaking narrative building by all of these pollsters. And we've seen that before. We saw this, for example, in 2016, when the polls were actually somewhat closed between President Trump and Hillary Clinton, but a narrative started to build up that there was no way she could possibly lose. And that's how you end up with everyone in America believing that Hillary Clinton is actually going to win. By the way, that perception may, in fact, have lost her in the election. So it's possible that the narrative buildup here in favor of a Democratic tsunami actually suppresses the Democratic turnout in certain ways, because people figure they're going to win anyway. Why bother to go vote? Now, again, it's not all good news for Republicans. I don't want to pretend, like, it's unalloyed good news. Here's the thing. There are certain things that you can game for and certain things you cannot. You can't game for your own death, but you can game for what happens to your family financially if, God forbid, you plot. Well, this is why you need Policy Genius. It's a free online marketplace. You can compare quotes from some of America's top insurers side by side. Their licensed team explains coverage amounts, prices, and terms, answers your questions, handles the paperwork, advocates for you throughout the entire process. They help you find an affordable policy that actually meets your needs. So add life insurance to that fall maintenance list. Somewhere above investigate strange furnace. Let's just get it done. With Policy Genius, you can find 20-year life insurance policies starting at just $276 a year for a million dollars in coverage. Head on over to policygenius.com slash Shapiro. Compare life insurance quotes from top companies. See how much you could save. Start today and help finish today and make sure that your family's taking care of it. It's policygenius.com slash Shapiro. Jim Garrity has a good piece over at National Review pointing out that Republicans are spending gobs of money in states that normally they wouldn't spend at all. The Senate Leadership Fund is no longer spending in North Carolina. That means they're basically giving up the ghost there. That's a lost seat. And again, that would be another error of the president's. The president decided that Tom Tillis was insufficient to fill the seat and ousted Tom Tillis. The president decided that Tom Tillis was insufficient to fill and now that's going to just turn into Roy Cooper, a Democrat. In any case, the SLF is spending $14 million to help Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas in his race against Adam Hamilton, which is not great. That, by the way, is a drop in the bucket. The same thing is true in South Carolina. They're spending $5 million just to help out Darlene Graham. They're still running some ads in the Senate race in Georgia, which is interesting. But in Ohio, they're dropping $93 million to help Senator John Husted try to avoid his ouster against Sherry Brown. In Texas, the Senate leadership fund has already spent $131 million. Again, some signs of obvious Republican weakness. And according to CNN, you're starting to see some early voting data that shows advantages for Democrats. According to CNN in Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests. That's up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it's 66% up from 62. In Maine, it's 57% up from 53%. Now, again, in Pennsylvania and Maine, those are minor numbers. In Iowa, that's a bigger number. But also, Iowa, it's still going heavy for President Trump. So, these numbers are not predictive. Again, Republicans tend to vote a lot day of. This is just the reality about Republican and Democrat voting. So, those early balloting numbers aren't fully demonstrative of anything, given the fact that Republicans show up the day of. If it was going the other way, if Republicans were showing up very early to vote, you would imagine a Republican wipeout. Because Republicans pretty much everywhere tend to show up more to the polling place than Democrats, and Democrats tend to vote early. Now, as CNN does note. It's worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are right now, which is to say Democrats are running in the early vote in a lot of these states behind where they were in 2022. Now, again, we're going to keep giving you this coverage. This is why you subscribe over at Daily Wire. We're in full midterm mode already. We have an election hub over at dailywire.com. It'll be live next week, and it will have interactive maps and a March Madness-style bracket challenge where you can make and save your picks for the big contested races. On election night, we will all get together for special coverage of all the most important races. I'll be joining the other hosts, David Phillips. We'll join to do live analysis and break down the results as they come in. So stay tuned for all of it at Daily Wire because we are nearing a very, very important election. Okay, now to the economy. This is the biggest issue in the election, is the economy. As always, it's always true. And this is also where President Trump is getting absolutely just bulldozed. His numbers on the economy are bad. They're just outright bad. According to Pew, the percentage of people who approve of him on the economy went from 92 to 76 from 2024. Now among Republicans, 59 to 35 among independents and 27 to 10 among Democrats. Overall, he's in the 20s in his approval rating on his handling of the economy. Why? Well, the answer is obvious. People don't believe prices have come down enough. Now, again, I think that when the president expressed what he was going to do during the 2024 campaign, people misread that. He said, I'm going to bring prices down. There is no way to bring prices down, like actually bring them down, absent economic recession. That is how prices actually fall. What he meant was, I'm going to reduce the rate of increase in prices, which is not the same thing. And it's very easy for people to say, hey, hold up a second. You said you were going to bring prices down. I was paying, you know, 20 bucks for a pizza. Now I'm paying 25 bucks for a pizza. And even if it's true that you're reducing the rate of inflation in the pizza price, people still can look at a price tag and figure they're paying more than they once were. But let's talk about prices. Because as I've said many, many, many times at this point, if you're talking about prices, obviously a lot of focus on the Iran war right now because of oil prices. But if you're talking about prices, you're looking at prices. And that's legitimate, of course. But if you want to look at where the president crossed paths, where he went from approval rating in the positive territory to approval rating in the negative territory, it's on Liberation Day. That is where things changed. And why? Because it turns out that if you wish to bring prices down, you have to use this thing called the free markets. That is the thing that generally brings prices down. Capitalism does a few things. It incentivizes people to increase supply when there is profit margin. So if things go wrong, if there's high demand and low supply, right, that a lot of customers who are trying to compete for the same product buy it, that's what drives up prices, then people crowd into that industry in order to make more of that product and take advantage of the profit margin. That increases supply, and then the price comes down. So the best way to bring prices down is through free markets. You increase supply, and that reduces price. Or maybe you innovate. You create a brand new product that obviates the need for the original product in the first place. Markets are awesome at this. Tremendous at this. Unparalleled at this. Like really, really, really good at this. Price controls don't do it. Rent controls don't do it. The free market does it. You know what else markets are great at over the long haul? Raising wages. In the short term, sometimes markets bring down wages. It depends sort of on the labor supply. But in the long arc of history, markets increase wages. Marxism said the opposite, right? Karl Marx got this totally wrong. He suggested that the industrial revolution would be a system of workers. That basically everybody would be forced to pour into cities, and then they'd be paid a pittance, and everybody would starve to death. And it wasn't true. It turns out that companies compete with each other to hire workers. And if there is a shortage of labor, just like any other good product or service, the prices go up. In the long term, if the economy expands, and more workers are needed, and people compete to hire those workers, the wages go up. Now, again, it doesn't mean wages always only go in one direction, but that's the general rule. Okay, so now let's talk about a couple of things. First of all, let's talk about the lower prices. Restricting the labor supply. This does not lower prices. If you make it so that people can't hire workers, this increases prices. Okay, and let's also talk about something else that does not, in fact, lower prices. Tariffs. Tariffs increase prices. These are two things that are guaranteed to lift your prices. One, restrict the labor supply. Two, restrict the actual number and quality of goods that are coming into your economy. So on immigration, for a second, let's separate out a few justifications for immigration restrictionism. Some of them are very good, and some of them are very bad. So when it comes to immigration restrictionism, we should not import people to our country who are not willing, capable, able, desirous of assimilating to our culture. We shouldn't. That's a bad idea. We shouldn't import people to the United States or to any Western country to be dependent on our welfare systems. We shouldn't hang a free donuts sign in the shop window and welcome everybody in. That's not how you should do immigration. You shouldn't welcome people in who have a criminal record, or who are likely to engage in crime. These are obvious things. And then there are some people who make the case that for economic reasons, we shouldn't allow immigrants. This is wrongheaded. Absent welfare dependency, right? Again, that's a big condition. Absent welfare dependency, or state benefits, or taxpayer dollars flowing to immigrants. So you just come here and you're not getting any benefits. Immigration, if you're not getting any benefits, is very good for economies. Why? Because if someone comes here wanting to work, they increase productivity, they innovate, they create. Well, how about wages? In the short term, when you increase the supply of anything, including labor, the price will go down, which means wages may temporarily drop if more workers come into an economy. But then productivity goes up, and the economy grows, and absorbs more workers, and the wages rise again for all of the reasons that we've talked about. So why is all of this relevant? Well, again, both of these issues are now on the table. Tariffs and immigration restrictionism with regard to employment. So according to the New York Fed brand new study, tariffs, it turns out, are responsible for nearly all of the inflation-inkey goods in the past couple of years. According to CNBC, the cost of many everyday items would have declined last year and early this year without President Trump's tariffs, according to the New York Federal Reserve. The cost of 67 categories of goods was 2.9 percentage points higher as of February, thanks to tariffs, according to a paper from a team of researchers at the Central Bank's New York Arm. Without the levies, the team found that prices for the products they studied, would have pulled back by almost 1%. Who could have been arguing this for, you know, years on it? Who? I don't know. I have to search my memory banks. I have to think real hard about this one. Again, the laws of supply and demand are undefeated. This is just supply and demand. If you restrict the supply and you maintain the demand, the prices go up. And just think about every price as an auction. If there is only one apple pie and everyone wants the apple pie, the price of the apple pie will be high. If there are a hundred apple pies and a hundred people, the price of the apple pie will be a lot lower. Okay, so that's tariffs. How about immigration restrictionism? Okay, so yesterday, the vice president made a big announcement regarding immigrant work visas. Now, there is some argument inside the administration on this. Trump is in favor of immigrant work visas and J.D. Vance is against it. So, let's start with Trump. So, yesterday, the president gave awards to a wide variety of innovators. Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, Saiya Nadella, among others. Okay, now, we should note how these people got to our country. And because all of the people that I just mentioned are immigrants, they all came to the country. That's good. We are better off because they did. It's not just good because they increased our economy and because they built great companies and created hundreds of thousands of jobs between them. It's also good because we brain-drained all of our enemies. Elon Musk came to the United States on a J-1 student visa and then later, he obtained an H-1B visa. Sergey Brin, founder of Google, was given refugee visa status at age six when his parents immigrated from the Soviet Union. Jensen Huang of NVIDIA is a Taiwanese immigrant. Lisa Su of Advanced Micro Devices immigrated from Taiwan as a child as well. Saiya Nadella of Microsoft came to the U.S. from India on an F-1 student visa. By the way, these are not the only example of high-powered immigrants in our land. Peter Thiel immigrated from Germany as a child. Chamath Palihapitiya, he got a professional work visa after immigrating to Canada as a child and later, got an H-1B. David Sacks immigrated from South Africa as a child. Sundar Pichai over at YouTube, he took the student visas. Here is the thing. Brain-draining other countries is awesome. Great. We should do it. We need more smart people coming here and working. That is a good thing. Yesterday, the vice president, he said that Microsoft violated immigration employment law. Here is what the vice president had to say.
Speaker 5Thanks to an ongoing investigation, we have decided to suspend the PERM program for Microsoft, which means they will no longer be able to take those H-1Bs and apply for permanent resident status within the United States of America. Now, our message to Microsoft and to any other foreign or domestic corporation is quite simple. We obviously want you to thrive in the United States of America. We want people to invest in the United States of America, particularly the American technology sector. We are the biggest boosters of your industry. We want you to continue to grow and to employ a lot of people, but we want you to employ American workers. And so our message to Microsoft is you're a great American company, but you've got to hire great American workers.
Speaker 1So they suspended Microsoft from a program that allows H-1B visa holders to apply for green cards. So H-1B visa holders are people who come to the United States on a work visa. And then the company can apply on behalf of from the H-1B visa holders for a so-called program Electronic Review Management, Green Card, that's PERM. The action by Vance's anti-fraud task force, he's claiming essentially these companies engaged in fraud, is targeting Microsoft, Adobe, and several tech recruiting companies over what officials have alleged are widespread abuses of the Visa system. Vance said that no other company has abused the system more than Microsoft. They accused Microsoft of laying off U.S. citizens only to replace them with foreign workers brought into the country on H-1B Visas. Okay, so number one, that is not a violation of the law. That's not a violation of the law. If Microsoft brings someone on H-1B Visa from India to work at their company, you may think they shouldn't do it. It is not illegal to do that. And so suspending them from a program for doing that, that would be illegal, and Microsoft is going to sue. A Microsoft spokeswoman said the company plans to send the administration more information on what they are doing. She said the vast majority of their employees in the United States are American citizens, and that of the approximately 6,000 H-1B Visa applications it submitted in the last fiscal year, 80% were for people. who are existing Microsoft employees. In other words, these are people who are just getting renewed for their H-1B Visas, rather than getting them a green card to just get their H-1B renewed. Companies can employ somebody on an H-1B for a maximum of six years, and then they have to sponsor them for a green card to keep them. That's the PERM program. Now, when they apply for the green card under the PERM program, a company must perform a so-called labor market test to ensure that no Americans are qualified to fill that job. Now, the Trump administration is alleging that the company's basically fixed the process. They rig it by advertising jobs for green card holders very narrowly. So they kind of game the system. And they essentially put out a notice saying, you need this extremely specific set of skills and no Americans can fill it. Okay, now we can apply for PERM. And if they provide evidence of that, that, in fact, is a violation of the law. But the vice president did not provide any evidence of that. He basically said that because Microsoft hires people on H-1Bs and then fires people who are not on H-1Bs, this amounts to some form of. of immigration fraud. That is not true. Again, the vice president is not presenting any actual evidence of PERM abuse here. Maybe he will, but you didn't hear. And so he's conflating two programs, the H-1B visa program and green card applications for people for whom there is no American replacement. So, again, we should be clear on a couple of things. There are lots of arguments to restrict immigration, including legal immigration to the United States. A bad argument is that H-1Bs hurt the economy. That is a bad argument. It is an unfactual argument. Restricting H-1Bs raise, by necessity, the cost of hiring in America. That's how it works. If you restrict your labor base, you're increasing the price. If you increase the price, it increases the price of goods and services at the other end as well. You end up with inflation. And by the way, typically speaking, if you artificially boost the price of wages, what happens? Typically, no hiring or offshoring. You either cut jobs or you offshore. And that means that tax revenue and local consumption that the U.S. has to pay for, and that means that the U.S. has to pay for, and that means that the worker would have put into America is now gone. It's not theoretical, by the way. In its own form, this is what happens in the American auto industry in the 50s. So in the 50s, the rest of the world was basically in ruins and shambles because of World War II. The United States was still robustly industrialized. And we unionized all of our auto companies up the wazoo, and we artificially increased the price of labor. What did that mean? Well, it meant the price on goods and services, like cars, went up. And then eventually it meant the only way to keep prices competitive was to make crappier cars. And then eventually, Tokyo just ate our lunch. The Japanese just ate our lunch in the 60s. The general economic rule is that if you restrict the labor supply, major companies wind up offshoring. There is zero evidence that I'm aware of that H-1B restrictions increase American employment and wages after you account for the offshoring of the jobs. Now, the head of the Federal Trade Commission, Andrew Ferguson, who was there during this announcement, he said that America is not a jobs program for the rest of the world. And of course, that's true.
Speaker 6America is not a jobs program for the rest of the world. We didn't build our institutions for the rest of the world. We built them for Americans. Our rule of law, our system of sane and sound regulation, our capital markets, our justice system, everything that makes the American economy thrive, we did not build for the planet. We built it for us. We built it for Americans first. The fraud described today denies Americans that institution. And that is what the fraud that the task force has spent the last nine months uncovering has consistently done. It denies Americans of their own patrimony.
Speaker 1Okay, so again, this idea that there is, quote unquote, an American job waiting for you is a category error. There are jobs in America. And if you can fill that job, then that job is waiting for you. But if somebody else can fill that job, that job is waiting for them. The job is still in America. That is an American job. It's just being filled by somebody who's coming from another country. Now, again, you can make a lot of arguments about whether we should allow people from certain countries to come in. But the economic argument here, is incredibly weak. And it is very, very difficult to make the argument that you wish to bring prices down while artificially restricting the labor supply. And that's just a reality. By the way, you know what creates jobs actually outside America? Artificially boosting the wage rate in the United States. You do that, and guess what happens? Just created a crapload of jobs in India. So I was at University of Texas at Austin a couple of days ago. And there were a lot of students there at TPUSA who looked like this. Now, again, you remember this photo because Beau French, he's a candidate in Texas. He suggested that this was sort of the end of the world. Okay, well, a lot of the people who came to this TPUSA event looked just like that. And you know what? That's great. That's fine. That's wonderful. Because all these people are conservatives. They're coming to a TPUSA event. So I've got a bunch of Indian American students, many second or maybe even third generation, presumably conservative oriented, getting an education, getting jobs and assimilating. What would be the gigantic problem here? So I was asked about this in a bit of a different form yesterday.
Speaker 7My question was, was regarding immigration. And I come from a small town in Texas where there are a lot of illegal immigrants from Mexico. And they largely fill, honestly, all of the jobs that Americans don't want to. My dad's a rancher and there's a lot of dirty, hot, messy jobs that he really only had success by hiring illegal immigrants that he would love to find, you know, somebody in town, but he just can't do it. So I guess my question is, what is your answer to that? What is your answer to the labor shortage and if the illegal immigrants weren't here and there's not people that are willing to do these low-wage, hard jobs? Yes, this is actually a phenomenal question.
Speaker 1Okay, and then I basically gave that same explanation that I've been talking about right here. And the reality is that the laws of economics remain undefeated. There's another problem here. What happens when we stop brain-training the world? So the vice president was asked, if you basically stop people from coming in to get jobs, how do you decide who gets in? How do you make it so that Elon Musk
Speaker 5gets in? Now, it's one thing if you want to bring in a person like Elon Musk. I think 99% of American citizens look at somebody like Elon Musk or Lisa Su, the CEO of AMD, and they say, obviously, if that person wants to come in and build something great in the United States of America, we support that. But if you're bringing in an accountant who's making $40,000 a year and you use that foreign indentured servant making $40,000 a year to replace an American worker who is making $70,000 a year, you're not bringing in a genius to build a great American corporation. You're committing fraud against the American people and against this visa program. It has to stop. And thanks to the work of this task force and, again, the empowerment of the president of the United States, we are doing something to stop it.
Speaker 1So he says, if you're just coming in and get paid $40,000 as an accountant, we don't want you here, but we definitely want Lisa Su here. Lisa Su immigrated to the United States as a child. Lisa Su came from Taiwan. I'm going to give you three guesses what her parents did. Her father was a statistician for the city government and her mother was an accountant. So it turns out that unless you have a magical wand and the ability to identify Lisa Su at age four and you ban her parents, the accountants from coming into the country, you just don't get Lisa Su's. And the same thing is true of Elon and Sergey and Jensen and Saigonadella and all of them. The same thing is true of all these things. Now, pretending away the problem doesn't make the problem work. The problem, go away. So the vice president is now blaming socialists for H-1B visas.
Speaker 5Back in 2016, one of the most interesting things that happened is when Bernie Sanders, then of course the leading socialist in the United States of America, was asked about open borders, he gave an answer that sounded similar to Stephen Miller's where he said, of course we're not going to have open borders because that's going to displace American workers. It is ironic that so many of the self-described socialists running across this country, they love the idea, of replacing American workers with foreign workers, which suggests to me, it's really not about the working class, it's about their hatred of native-born citizens. Okay, well actually,
Speaker 1a lot of the socialists are in favor of open immigration, not because they want them replacing American workers, but because they want them on American welfare and because they wish for them to vote for Democrats. That is the real reason. As it turns out, actually a bunch of socialists in say Scandinavia are very much interested in immigration restrictionism because they realize free donuts plus open door equals bankruptcy. So the vice president is in favor of massive government interventionism up to and including taking stakes in private American companies. He has praised the economic plans of everyone from Elizabeth Warren to Lina Khan. He was asked an awkward question yesterday about how he defines socialism since he is very much a government interventionist in the economy. And here is his answer.
Speaker 5How do you define socialism personally and why do you think socialist candidates are popping up everywhere across the country? Oh man, you know, I guess, it's honestly, it's a hard term to define these days because very often and socialism. You know, classically, you would think socialism is about prioritizing workers. And yet, in reality, I guarantee that most of the self-described socialists running across the United States of America are going to howl about this announcement today, which is prioritizing American workers over foreign workers. So I don't know what the term means anymore. I think in reality, what it actually means in the American context is that you want to replace American workers with foreign workers and you want boys to play in girls' sports. That's what unites the socialists that I see running across the United States of America
Speaker 1today. It is a stupid belief that men are women, but it is not a particularly socialist belief that men are women. Socialism, definitionally, is an economic and political system in which the means of production, distribution, and major resources are owned or controlled by the public and the workers collectively rather than by private individuals. And that's what socialism means. There are programs that are socialistic in nature because the government nationalizes them. Or gets involved, grants a monopoly. Heavy regulation of industry can be effectively socialistic because we don't have control over the dispensation of your property or control of your property. Because of regulation, the government effectively runs it. And here's the thing. That's not going to win elections. It just isn't. You can't outbid Democrats when it comes to this stuff. You cannot outcompete socialists with socialism white. You can't just shout American jobs and American workers while the prices keep going up and the wages aren't keeping up and then hope that those slogans are going to make up for the negative outcomes that are outgrowing. Outgrow the policies that you pursue. Now, again, this doesn't mean that JD Dance is wrong on everything. The vice president made another announcement yesterday where he was right. So here he was going after universities for J-1 visa fraud.
Speaker 5I want to make one final announcement here because while we see a lot of H-1B visa fraud, we also see a lot of J-1 visa fraud. And this is where some of America's most elite universities bring in foreigners, again, to undercut the wages of American residents. Now, there are nine universities in particular that we believe merit. And in investigation, those universities are Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Brown, the University of Pittsburgh, UC Davis, Caltech, Arizona State, and MIT. And what we see is that when you employ an American worker as a graduate student, as a researcher, they're making about $20,000 more than someone brought in under a J-1 visa. And importantly, these universities are employing J-1 visas for federally funded grants at a rate of about 61 percent. The national average is 38 percent. So something. Something weird is going on at these universities. They're using these visas way too much. They're using them to undercut the wages of American grad students and American researchers. And it simply has to stop.
Speaker 1Now, he is right about this. Unlike F-1 student visas. So F-1 student visas is where a student from abroad wants to come to Harvard or something. And very often, F-1s turn into a pathway to employment or whatever. J-1s are typically paid for by government funding or institutional funding. And J-1s, unlike F-1s, have a two-year return home requirement. So after you finish your education, you have to go home. You have to come home for at least two years, which means that the brain drain that I want, which is to take the smart people from other countries and make them American, that is a thing that doesn't really happen very often under J-1s. It's one thing, by the way, to do that with our European allies. But a huge percentage of J-1s come from, wait for it, China. Like 25 to 35 percent of J-1 visas at top institutions go to Chinese students. Why do universities do it? Well, because they get paid full freight. They get paid more, right, as in a scholarship. And meanwhile, these people come here and they steal our IP and then they go home. And all this started as a way to build ties, supposedly, between various countries. I don't feel like we need to give our IP and access to our best intellectual institutions to our enemies to build credibility or trust. So the vice president is certainly right about that one. OK, on to the cultural world. So there's a website called IndieWire. And they went and they dug up a crew member on the film that we are currently making over in Montana. This is the ICE film, the film about an ICE arrest of an illegal immigrant, a criminally illegal immigrant. A crew member quit. So here's the actual story. The crew member was hired. The person was informed. This is a Daily Wire film. I mean, it's a Daily Wire film. You can fairly guarantee that, you know, the politics aren't going to be left wing. Exactly. There was a long line on the Daily Wire film and it discussed exactly what the film was about. And then this person was sent a script. And the person, like a lazy ass, did not read the script until this person apparently arrived in Montana and then did a day of work and then went home. And read the script and then wanted to quit and went to our producer, Del Sonier, and said, I want to quit. And Del said, OK. And then we flew her home. That apparently is the entire story. But here is how that is played by IndieWire. Quote, an ICE agent can cover their face while doing their job. But a crew member's name remains affixed to a film long after it wraps with credits shaping the opportunities that come next. Taking direction is part of the gig, of course. But knowing how to execute a scene isn't the same as knowing what story you've agreed to tell or whose politics your work might serve. Well, excuse me. You were told the love line. You were told for whom you worked. And then you were given a copy of the script. And then you quit. And there were no consequences. So what exactly is the big deal here? Apparently, it's a huge deal, according to IndieWire. The worker who spoke to IndieWire says the problem began earlier with what they say they weren't told about. Quote, I was asked my availability, was told it was a fun action movie in downtown Livingston. Great crew, great whatever. That was the whole pitch. They said, yep, I'm available. The crew member said they requested the script and specific information needed for their role, but did not receive substantive details. About the film subject until well after taking the gig. If I had known this, I would not have even accepted the job, they said. So the log line was, in fact, available. The employer was, in fact, available. The company making the film was, in fact, available. And then this person, again, got the script, had it a week before arriving, apparently, in Montana, we were told, and didn't read it. And then got there and then read it and quit. That's the whole story. But, you know, you're a victim if you are too stupid to read the script that you are actually handling. You're the victim. Even if we, and again, then the script was leaked. I wonder by whom, to the media, just shows you that when it comes to Hollywood productions and free speech, again, tends to only cut in one direction. Joining us on the line is an actual American hero. That's my friend, Gary Sinise. We spoke with him yesterday. Gary Sinise, he's an Oscar-nominated actor. Of course, he's won an Emmy, a Golden Globe, two SAG Awards. He's known for roles in films like Forrest Gump. And Apollo 13, he's also a New York Times bestselling author. And he has a new book coming out next month. It's called Graceful Warrior, the true story of a son, a father, and a family who carried each other through. Gary, thanks so much for taking the time. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 8Good to see you, Ben. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1So, the book is really a remarkable tribute to your son, Mac. Why don't you give people the background on who Mac was, what Mac's story was, and how it affected your family?
Speaker 8Well, thank you. You know, I really had to write this book, I guess. It was just something I had to do. My son was just, he was a wonderful son. And he was diagnosed in 2018 with a very, very rare cancer called chordoma. I mean, I had never heard of it. Most people hadn't. And it's a rare bone cancer. It probably affects maybe 300. 300 people in the U.S. per year. About 70% of the time, Ben, they can go in and they can remove the tumor like other cancers, and they can cure it. 30% of the time, however, it comes back and metastasizes. And that's unfortunately what happened to Mac. And then, as this is an incurable cancer with no drugs developed to fight it, you're left with radiation and surgeries. And just throwing spaghetti against the wall and seeing what will stick. And he, during the course of about five and a half to six years, he tried 25 different drugs, many, many radiation treatments, surgeries. And he fought so gracefully and so valiantly through it all that I was just, I was just motivated each and every day to do whatever I could as his battle buddy to just try to help. And he fought so gracefully and so valiantly through it all that I was just, I was just motivated each and every day to try to help. him through this terrible thing that we were facing. At the end of his life, the last year of his life, 2023, he was a great, great composer and a great songwriter, great drummer, great musician. He went to USC Music School. And that last year of his life, which, of course, we didn't know was going to be the last year of his life, he went back to work on some music and ended up producing an album called Resurrection and Revival. I believe I've talked to you before about these records. Now there are three records in this series. And I write about this in Graceful Warrior. The battle was tough in 2018 at the same time that Mac was diagnosed with chordoma. My wife, two months before, had been diagnosed with stage three breast cancer. My father had died just a couple of years before that. And it was just. It was just a really tough time with the family. And we were really trying to pull each other through what was a very, very difficult time. But that last year of his life, I write about this quite significantly in Graceful Warrior, was probably in some ways been one of the best years of his life.
Speaker 1So, Gary, obviously, I'm the father of five. This is an unthinkable situation that you had to go through as a father. How do you deal with that as a human? being what do you see your role as well tragedy is occurring around you, how do you, how do you face the world every morning, you know, dealing with the tragedy that was upon you?
Speaker 8Well, of course, you know, losing a child is like the, I mean, it's, it's certainly the, the, the hardest thing I've ever faced. And we, you know, everybody goes through a lot of difficult, difficult things. Uh, and we have, you know, certainly in our family, I write about some of that in my first book, grateful, grateful American, but losing a child and facing an incurable cancer, uh, is, is very, very difficult. And the most difficult thing that I've ever faced, I stepped away from acting in 2019 because things were getting just tougher with Mac. And I, uh, excuse me. As things got harder on him, uh, Ben, uh, fortunately I had had some success in the movie and television business and I could afford to step away and just be the battle buddy for him and the caregiver and try to do everything I could to find drugs and to deal with doctors. You know, I had 40 different doctors, cell phones in my phone that I was staying in touch with constantly, uh, on many fronts. You know, you've got the radiation team, you've got the oncology team, you've got the surgery team, you've got, um, foundations out there that are trying to find solutions for this particular cancer, one called the chordoma foundation that was started by somebody who had chordoma. And so I had some, I was just constantly in touch, trying to fight the battle as best I could so that Mac could, um, just enjoy his day. Um, the cancer disabled him very, very badly, Ben, uh, to the point where he was paralyzed from the chest down. He could still move his arms up and down, but he could not walk anymore. Uh, he was in a wheelchair. We had a hospital bed at home for him. Um, you know, all, all the while my wife is in and out of the hospital with multiple spine surgeries and cancer surgeries and heart surgeries and all these different things. It was. I was, you know, it was, it was like, we are all tested in some way in this life. Some, some of us are tested more than others. And I've certainly met many who have been tested, you know, far more than, than, than we have. And I've learned from them, you know, during, throughout my work with the Gary Sinise foundation and the serving the men and women who served our country, I've met hundreds of families who have lost a loved one in military service, or who have died. Been severely, severely injured and wounded and have to deal with life in a much different way now. And the caregivers are also always, you know, a, a primary part of that day-to-day survival. And that's kind of what I, I was trying to do for Mac is just help him so that he could have a good day when he was feeling good. If he wasn't feeling sick from the cancer or sick from the treatment or in pain or something like that, Mac was. Remarkable and how he was just focused on today. I'm going to feel good and I'm going to do the best I can. And so I tried as a father to take a lot of the medical stuff away from him so he could learn about that. And I write about this journey, you know, in graceful warrior and graceful warrior, by the way, is, is something, um, is a term it's how I described Mac in an interview that somebody did with me and they asked me about him and, and it just came out. And I said, you know, he was, he fought hard. He was like, he was a graceful warrior in the way he dealt, dealt with it. And he was, and you know, I've met many graceful warriors over, over the years who have been just really challenged physically and mentally with, with survival. And, uh, I'd been inspired by them and I was certainly inspired. So much by Mac so much so that I, I just had to write a book about it.
Speaker 1You know, when, when readers pick up graceful warrior, what, what do you hope that they learn? Not just about Mac, but about life and about being a dad and about going through tragedy. What do you hope is sort of the takeaway message for, for people who are reading graceful warrior?
Speaker 8Well, you know, while, while fighting cancer is certainly a part of the story, it's not the story and it's not. A book about cancer. It's a book about a family who carried each other through, you know, and a son and a father who were battling together and, uh, and, and what it took throughout that time to keep getting up, you know, from, you know, there were times Ben, when, when it, you know, you can imagine, you know, with five kids, you know, coming home and from the hospital and Mac was in the hospital multiple times in, in 2020, he was in the hospital six out of the first eight months of the year with two major surgeries and radiation, chemo, all those, all these different things, uh, hemoglobin numbers dropping, you know, to the point where I just, I thought what can I do? You know, there's, I'm trying so hard and I don't know what, I don't know what to do. And there were those moments where I just fell to the ground. And then you gotta, you gotta get up, you know, you gotta, you gotta, you gotta pick yourself up. There's, there's people depending on you. And as a father, I, my son was, he needed me to be strong and I had to, I had to remain strong and just keep trying to do everything I could to, uh, to protect him and to fight for him so that he could, he could live each day to the fullest. And I want people to know, you know, that, you know, while we went through a situation that didn't turn out the way we wanted it to, there were so many, so many things, blessings throughout this journey, this terrible fight and, and, and many silver linings. And those are the things that, you know, in times of challenge like this, you must stay focused on, because if you let yourself curl up in a ball and go into the corner, and start, and just think about, uh, the impossibility of what you're dealing with and how it's knocking you down, you won't, you won't be able to get up. And so you have to focus on those blessings. And we had a lot of them, Ben. I mean, Mac, that's what was remarkable about Mac is that he focused on that. He knew that, you know, I'm, you know, I'm somebody who was in the movie and television business. I did, I did pretty well financially. I could afford to. You know, bring in some additional help, bring in some nurses and, uh, who he needed round the clock, 24 hour care at a certain point, once we got him home from the, uh, from the second made the fifth major surgery in 2020, he was not able to walk anymore. He was not able to do a lot of things for himself anymore. And I was blessed that I could afford to bring in some additional help to help us. That was a blessing. He knew that was a blessing. He knew that we, you know, we had, uh, uh, a way to fight this, that maybe other people don't, you know, that don't have that kind of financial cushion or support system around them. He thought quite a lot about the, the lone person living in a trailer who doesn't have any family at all, who's fighting an incurable cancer and doesn't have any help. And he thought about those kinds of people all the time. And he. Always looked at the silver linings. And that's what I hope that, that people will take home from this book is that in times of great challenge like this, when you, when the chips are down and you're feeling like you're losing, keep your eye on those blessings though. They'll give you a lot of courage. They'll give you strength and they'll help you through day to day. Well, the book
Speaker 1again is graceful warrior. It is moving. Mack was a tremendous person. Obviously, Gary, as I say, is an American here. You should go check out his book, graceful warrior, the true story of a son, a father, and a family who carried each other through Gary. Thanks so much for taking the time and sharing with us today.
Speaker 8Thank, thank you, Ben. The book's in pre-order so you can pre-order it and all of that, but it comes out officially on November 10th, which is Mac's birthday. It would have been his 36th birthday.
Speaker 1Amazing. So make sure that you pre-order it right now. Thanks so much, Ben. Great. Thank you, Gary. All right, folks, the show continues right now. Only if you are a daily wire member, we're going to get into some culture. We're going to talk about the actors community. Some actors starting to realize that actually, you know, Republicans watch movies too, but you have to become a member that also helps us do all the awesome film TV documentary projects that we're doing. All of our political coverage. We can only do that because of your membership. Go help us out right now. Become a member. Use code Shapiro. Check out for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us. We'll see you next time. every significant movement in
Speaker 7history has started with protesting uncle tom this is our generation civil rights i have
Speaker 6no idea what the protest is about bingo given the current climate should a figure as polarizing as clay saunders even be allowed on campus uh
Speaker 9can you hear me okay saunders is a close personal friend of chancellor friedman this is a decision i cannot fight islam will conquer the west are we paying attention they've taken over the building they're downstairs and they've blocked the doors i seek forgiveness from allah the almighty we cannot run and hide muhammad is the messenger of god there is no god but allah what do you say we turn those sobs into a fine red mist as we move one man will cover while the other guys go they call that leap cross you need a course
Speaker 2in safe weapons handling listen up there are enough people listening
Speaker 1to the show right now that if they don't vote it could swing key states in the 2026 election to the democrats and everyone listening knows every single ultra far left democratic socialist will be showing up to vote this fall democrats are fired up we can't let them win because if we lose they will undo everything our movement has fought for i need you to vote early so you can bank your vote and fight back against the left's turnout machine if you live in the critical senate battleground states of maine or ohio early voting is already underway starting this week go to gopvotes.org right now find out when you can vote making your voice heard is easier than ever you can get election reminders look up your polling location and pick a date to vote early go to gopvotes.org today paid for by slf pack not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
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