Ep. #206 - Mike Scavuzzo (Numerator)

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If you use code ShaneWhite, and that's just ShaneWhite, one word, during checkout at NuraRose.com, you'll get 30% off your order of Nura Rose mushroom coffee. So whether you choose the ground or instant option, the ShaneWhite 30 discount code will work for 30% off. All right, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Shane White Show. I am pumped today. It's an exciting one. My homey, Mike Skavuzo on the podcast. Mike, how are you, buddy? No complaints, man. Thank you so much for having me as a listener. It's fun to be on here. I think this is my first podcast. So this will be an exciting one for the both of us. Oh, I'm fired up. That's awesome. We were joking before we hit record. You have quite the setup. So if everyone, anyone's watching this episode, even we can watch it now, Mike's got like the professional camera. It's right at face level. He's got the microphone. I'm like, this is good. Maybe I need to put it all up. As I said, my guests, let's hold setup that you got. It might be the move. You know, it would be in sales and having that remote setup. I think it's key and crucial to have a solid professional setting just to come through a little clear, because I know sometimes computer cameras are not the best. I do think it actually does level up like the way you look to clients. It's funny. I've done the same. And then some days I'm just on my laptop and there's a big difference between the two. Yeah. Yeah. Covers up the imperfections on the computer camera. This one puts a little more focus. Exactly. Exactly. Well, for everyone listening who doesn't know who you are, would you mind give everyone just a little bit of a background and intro into yourself? And for everyone who's listening, me and Mike know each other for a long time. I met Mike back in 2017. Funny enough, I wasn't that long when I joined our ex bar. Mike was there. He'd been there a little bit when I joined. So that's back in the OG RX days before we sold the house. I know. Days I look back finally too. But yeah, my background is has been always in CPG. I was lucky to kind of fall into the industry while I was at school. I went to Michigan State for an undergrad degree in marketing and thought I was going to go to the agency route and do more of the creative end of marketing. But I was fortunate to land an internship with the big K Kellogg at a battle creek. So that was really my first entrance into CPG and specifically category management. So I supported their ready-to-eat cereal and frozen food categories. And three days a week my senior year would drive down to battle creek and work there. And it was just an incredible experience to get that training and that kind of exposure, that young in the career. So it was there through my senior year and then after graduation went to Whirlpool for about a year and a half. Really great company. Obviously another Michigan Southwest Michigan company and appliances. Yeah, Betton Harbor. It appliances just didn't do it for me. I looked back on what I was doing with food and Kellogg and just absolutely loved it. I wanted to get back into that space. So I was able to find an opportunity with Red Bull down in their Dallas office for their business unit down in what they called Mountain South at the time. And really just supported a sales team from a category analyst role. So sea stores, grocery, small chains, big chains. A lot of what I was doing was going in with my sales counterparts and giving more of a category approach instead of a hard sales approach to why we should push some of these Red Bull initiatives and why it would be better for the category at large. So did that was elevated into a category development manager role which essentially is you know you're doing the same type of work but now you're on you know three to five of the largest chains in that region. Which another great experience some of some of the customers were H.E.B. Corner Store which was the Valero spin-off. Time wise stripes which was eventually acquired I believe by 7/11 but down in Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, Texas. So yeah just helping them but I understand the energy during category you know what the trends were, what's working, where consumers going. Just a super cool experience and you know at Red Bull I was super fortunate to have a couple of leaders that you know saw some potential in me on the sales side of things because I was going into so many of these meetings and seeing firsthand you know how each of the different sales folks at Red Bull sold I soaked in a ton. So the opportunity was really to be a bit more of a one-stop shop for sales and category management and I got to cover the great states of Mississippi Arkansas and West Tennessee. Just slinging Red Bull. So an awesome awesome area to cut your teeth and it was funny like the buyers knew it that I was calling on. They knew that that was kind of a rotational area so I would take a lot of grief from a lot of those buyers like all you're only going to be here for a year or a year and a half and then we're going to get the next in person. So you know it made some of the meetings and sell ones a little tougher but you know a great great area to really learn the business. And around that same time you know I started seeing a lot of these smaller you know upstart beverage companies, regional players some not necessarily not necessarily national yet start to pop up on the map and they were a you know half share one share two share but on a billion dollar category you know it's that's that sizeable size of $1.00. So I was just super interested in you know how are these smaller brands coming into the category and taking share and getting space on shelf. So I found an opportunity with IRI back up in Chicago which is which is where I'm from so my family was stoked that that got me back back home but it allowed me to explore kind of this whole emerging and mid market space. So I was calling on bring companies to cookie companies to better-duty-in-company companies and got to see you know a lot of the different business challenges that these folks had and you know we're either trying to sell in to a retailer we're trying to defend space in a retailer we're trying to do better marketing like you name it there there were a lot of different business challenges that they had and you know soaked in a ton and learned a lot again a great team over there but ultimately I missed the ownership of you know I would help a brand understanding this is the type of data you should be using and bringing in to you know solve whatever problem you're trying to solve for and then we'd hand it off and you know I don't know what would happen. - Sure. - But what I did see is a lot of these emerging brands are dealing with very, very similar issues. So it was that time that, or excuse me, our X-Bar was starting to make their big push. And saw an opening for Midwest Regional Sales Manager role with them and was able to get that interview and come in with them. And as you mentioned, 2016 towards the tail end there, joined in just, I mean, you know, the our X-Bar story from there. But it was an incredible opportunity because it was right before the real ramp up in sales volume going from 35 mil to 120 mil, which is just outrageous. So many love stories. - I remember even when I joined, I don't think I understood, 'cause I came from Walmart. So like the numbers at our X-Bar, I didn't fully, I couldn't wrap my head around how big that was. - Yeah. - And then hindsight now, knowing so many brands, it's insane what we did. - It was the worst entry into startups you could have. - I mean, it just wasn't real life and realistic. And like it's such an anomaly compared to, you know, the day to day for so many emerging brands. And it's a total tip to the, tip of the hat to, you know, Peter, Jared, Sam, Jesse, like the folks that were there early and really built it. Like, you know, you can say timing was big. You could say, you know, a lot of things, but man, they worked their butts off. They made a lot of really, really smart decisions at crucial moments and, oh, I mean, just, it wasn't real life. - It's crazy. No, yeah, you've bounced around. I was funny looking through, I've just even glanced through your LinkedIn yesterday. How many different places you've been? Because you even, were you at Red Bull during some of their crazy growth times too? Like I was looking back on those dates, and I couldn't remember if I felt like from what I remember and research I could find that you were there kind of in a crazy time too. - Yeah, it was 2012 through 2016 with them. And, you know, energy drinks got hit a little bit hard in the 20 or 2008 kind of financial crisis. And then coming out of, yeah, coming out of, coming out of that, it was just like, high double digit growth a year over a year. And like energy drinks to me are still such a fascinating category because they still post high double digit growth. Like, going back, look, do a historical look of Monsters stock price and take it back to like 2006. They were just unbelievable performance. And like, if I could have just invested in them. - Yeah, yeah. Like, it's just, it's cool. - Why do you think that is? Like, what more people just giving it a chance? Like, 'cause I remember, well, I mean, I'm thinking, I mean, I was in high school when energy drinks kind of came on the scene. I don't remember even high school people really drinking them very often. Like, that wasn't really a thing. But at least the people I ran with, it wasn't like all of us in high school were grabbing energy drinks. But then like, college came around. And I feel like that was really popular for me. I was in college from the fall of 2010 through 2014. And I remember by the end of that, it was, and then I know first year of working, I fucking pounded monsters like that. Like, I mean, so it's funny to think back to, 'cause it must have just exploded in the like mid teens. - Yet, it, it, you know, they started. I think the first can was like 1987 or something like that in the US or maybe it was in 1997. - Oh, it was, it's been around for a long time. - Oh yeah. Yeah. But it started on that kind of on-premise or bar scene. And I think it was partly just, you know, the consumer adoption. You think about when a brand is entering a consumer's life and college is such a pivotal moment for all consumers. And many consumers that are going to college where you're kind of more open to experimentation and trying different things and new products. And you're also heavily influenced by your friends. And, you know, I think about the college scene like Red Bull and Vodka or, you know, monsters for studying at the library. It was just easily accessible. And I think that entry point carried with that consumer base through kind of your 20s, even into adulthood, like beyond 20s. Like it's just, like as consumers have had their transition, like I think about my life stages and being a single guy getting married having kids. I love coffee, but I still like an energy drink every once in a while. I don't drink them as often as I used to my frequencies down, but I'm still a consumer and still shop the category. So I think they brought a lot more consumers into the fold than kind of that 2010 to 2015, 2016. And consumers became a lot more comfortable with energy drinks at large. Like if you recall back in the day, like there were a lot of studies and reports coming out that like energy drinks were really bad for you. - Right, they were lost. - They were lost for that. - That's all this shit, yeah. - Yes, yes. And it's true with that. And, you know, anything else, moderation is key. Should you drink four, 16 ounce monsters that have a 200 milligrams of caffeine in the day? Probably not, you know? - Right, right, right. But for a pick me up, like it's, it serves its function, it serves its purpose. - It's interesting too, 'cause you were at Red Bull and Kirkken from Wrong, there wasn't a ton of competition category. Like there were a few big players, but today there's unbelievable amounts of people that have entered that space. It reminds me of the bar space. - Oh, totally, totally. It was Red Bull Monster, Rockstar, NAS, which NOS, which was a Coca-Cola company. - If you remember that one. - Yeah, is that all around? I'm sure it is, just, I don't know if I can see it or hear about it. No. - Yeah, I'm not sure. - What a disgusting name for a drink. - I know. I know there's another one that I'm missing, but you really had five key players in that category and that towards 2014, 2015, like Celsius was coming on to see, and like that's a brand that I remember back then, like starting to come in and eat up share. And we've obviously seen their kind of explosive growth and then to your point, entering bang energy and bang. - Bang. - Yeah. - So some of these other ones, it's a fascinating category that continues to grow double digits year over year. - That's wild. So, Red Bull, that makes sense, and you were there to, I would call it a pivotal time. When you joined Rx, I don't think I've actually really had anyone on here that's been a part of the Rx story. So you joined in 2016, yeah, 2016 was that to me, like I missed the, 2017 was nuts, but I came on towards the end of 2017. So I really came on like right around the acquisition. What was it like in 2016 being at Rx during that time? Because it just, because how many people, you know what number you were? When you joined? - I think I was probably like 35. - I was 30, 35 somewhere in there. - Okay. 'Cause I was like 55 or 60. So yeah, I feel like I was at the tail end of like the slow and steady hiring. - Yeah. - And then exploded. But, wow. Yeah, so what was 2016 like when you came on? - It was, it was no shortage of chaos. Like it was like many other startups that I've experienced since where, you know, the company clearly had product market fit. The product was selling well. Retailers were really, really excited about it. So it was more so keeping up with demand. And, you know, I think about a shining star from that story. You, the supply chain team at Rx. - Oh, yeah. - You, the best in the business. I mean, in 2017 we launched, I think four regions of Costco. This was all in the month of May. Four regions of Costco, target nationwide, and corrobor nationwide. And somebody might want to fact check me. But it was, it was those three in the same month at scale. And we did it without missing a beat. Like this is a pie chain team. - Which is crazy. Like, on a real. - Back on it and knowing brands now, like that doesn't happen. Like you get small regional plays and it slowly expands. Do you remember like how did we, was it just that we were crushing it everywhere else? - Yeah. - It goes back to, you know, you have a product that was serving a white space and meeting a need that was unmet in the category. So there was clear like, we were solving a gap for retailers in the bar side. You had packaging that was so on point to consumers at that time and just dropped all the BS and you saw what was right on the front of the package. And you think about like the leading up to 2016, and like when I came in, that team did such an incredible job on figuring out who to launch and when to launch with them to build the more of the data story around like, our stats were like the number one velocity item, number one growth contributor. Like we just had such strong stats to bring in to all of our sales meetings. To gain placement, get additional facings and like we just had such a strong story and compelling story for retailers that, you couldn't ignore it. And it was, you know, paleoho 30, like it was just kind of sweeping across retailers. So a lot just aligned really, really well. It seemed it was so weird because it's one of those classic stories like, you know, even when I came in a little after you or a year later, really, like sitting in some of these retail meetings or at least like, I know I was a part of putting some of the decks together, putting insights together from a finance side. And then obviously your team did the actual like market insights. At the time, I didn't, I didn't realize the unicorn we were a part of. And you think back to it now, and I know we both have worked with plenty of brands since our X bar. And you just don't see that. Like every one, there's some really cool, exciting products out there. Like there's some ones that I'm super bullish on that I work with. But that just, it felt like every meeting at that time at our X, I'll never forget some of the, like, this is nothing against them, but even going to retailer like lifetime fitness, like falling up to Minneapolis. And it was just like, they're obsessed with us. It was, it really was such a weird time to work at a CPG brand that was at that pivotal moment because it seemed like every meeting we all had, like we'd all work really hard and putting an info together, but you'd walk in and it almost seemed like it was just selling itself. It was wild. Yeah. And again, you think about values and culture of companies, everybody lived it. And I think one of the keys, like, you know, being easy to work with and being someone that like, you know, a retailer or even external partner, like looked forward to the call. Like it was just folks that lived and breathed the brand, wanted the best for the company. And, you know, we didn't drop the ball match. Like we didn't have a ton of supply chain issues. We had the one peanut recall it, then to what 20 2018. Yeah. But beyond that, like you talk about a consistent partner that delivers is selling like crazy. You have people that you want to work with and engage with. Like it, it just checked the backs on so many levels. Yeah, it did. And it's funny thinking back on that too. The, I, because I hate this word, but people have asked me like what was so special. And I say culture, but then I quickly, I'm like, it's, but it's different than what you're thinking when I say that word. Yeah. I know when I, you know, I was at Walmart.com and I was an Indianapolis and then flying up to Chicago and I'm flying driving up Chicago and doing the interview, like that final interview, or I think I sat down with Jim, Jesse, and then Peter to finish it. Yeah. And there was something about just like walking into that office. I don't know if it was like the age group to just like a lot of young fast moving, you know, business savvy folks that you just, there was something that it's almost impossible. I think to replicate because it was like the perfect coolest product at the perfect time with the best people. Like it really was. And, and that's like people that weren't there. It's hard to explain what it was like, but especially it's two to five. Like before, before we made the big move to the big office, that small office, I only got to be there for what three or four months. But that was wild. That was, that was the time I would love to go back and work in that office again. It was, you know, I hope to find myself in an experience like that again one day, but if I don't like, it's, it's a highlight of a career type of situation. And just to be able to play a small role in that, entire brands, growth, trajectory, all of it. And again, I look back to the founders with Peter and Jared and, you know, they made such a push for hiring, hiring the right people, getting a structure and process in place. And more importantly, being able to back off and let the people that that you brought in go do what they were hired to do. I think that's another piece that doesn't get looked on quite as often or quite as frequently. Like what that had to take to, to kind of let loose of the reins and, and for Peter to, to move his focus from, you know, product in, in R&D, which I'm sure he still had a hand in, but he was so focused on people hiring in culture. Oh yeah. Like at that point, like I think that was really the driving force in, in creating like that buzz and energy in the office, because it was, you know, there was a model for, for folks that they were trying to hire with core values, skill set and capabilities. That's a really good point. I don't know if anyone's ever really said that that I've heard publicly, because that's hard to explain that without talking to people that were there, but that's so true, because he really was. I mean, he was such a big advocate for all of us. And that's, that's a funny thing. It's a funny way to phrase it because I had never really thought about it, but thinking of all the people that came on around, even when I came on, it was like, we don't, we are doing, you know, process ABC, but we're bringing you on because we think you're, you have an experience that you can bring this and give us fresh eyes and actually like evolve it and like go figure it out. And it was all ton of that. There wasn't, I don't know if that room or any team that felt like they were like overly managed, you kind of had the free willy to just like go figure stuff out, test it, break it, learn quick. That's so true across the board has every function. You had the support, and it was fail, fail fast and learn and and share, you know, what work and what work and what, what, what didn't, like that. I always think back to the thing that I've, I've seen another organization since our X bar, especially at that time, like 2017, 2018, they're, you hit on really well. There was a, which I think is a big differentiator for anyone who's, you know, starting a brand or working at a small startup today. There was just this, how do you, how do you, how do you explain it well? Every decision that was made, whether like it was Kyle and I on Amazon, or it was someone working on the Costco business or Kroger, whatever. The decision at the end of the day was always made on what's the best for our X bar. It wasn't what was best for your role, what was best for your function or your team. It was always like what's the best decision for our X bar. And to your point, sometimes that was unfortunately like a hard to, like something was actually made that would, for that team, it was a big bummer or maybe like not aligned with what they wanted to achieve for that year, but it was better for the overall organization. Man, that's a, that's a tough one that you don't see replicated enough. We're just like the siloed mentality. I would, I always said that about our X for the longest time there was just no silos, which is hard to do when you're scaling that fast. And having the vast majority of folks in Chicago, I think made a big, a big difference. I mean, I think about, you know, the early part of, especially the sales role that I was in when I first started, being able to lock over to Steve's desk and Steve was supply chain, chain lead for those folks that are listening and be like, hey, I just got a request from Meyer and they're looking for a ship or program in two weeks. Can we execute on this and being able to give me an answer like that to go back to the library. Yeah, we can do it. Let's, what's your pre commit? Well, it's crazy. That's so quiet. Yeah, that was like, I got to see the tail end of that, but it was that office like for everyone listening, it was one floor. So it was just everyone. There were rows of desk that we also slammed into because it was tiny, but you're right. You could just walk over and talk to any function in two seconds. And there was like really one big meeting room and then a few other smaller ones. So it was just you could always get a sense of what was going on or what the, like the emergencies were, or opportunities. I mean, it was, it was very easy to overhear things. Everyone was kind of looped in. Even when we changed offices and we went to the bigger office with multiple floors, you felt that immediately like when you have floor separation between your functions, it created a totally different dynamic. That's really wow. They forgot all about that. Yeah, it was that was that was great, great office. That was five, two, two, five, two, two, five. I never forget. It's awesome. Well, cool. Well, yeah. So Rx, that's a cool experience. And I mean, we could talk all day about Rx. We'd love to know now though for you. So now you're over a numerator. Yeah. Would you mind giving everyone a little bit of a background? I think, you know, I know my understanding of what data is available. I think for a lot of people listening, this is a really interesting area that you're obviously one of the best I know and why I wanted to get you on here. Before our Rx, I noticed everyone a little background. I mean, I really didn't know what these data sources were. And if you're someone listening who is, you know, wanting to understand an industry, Mike here is going to be, I mean, honestly, he knows some of the best data sources and understands how how to not just you don't just understand them, like how to manipulate them and actually get meaningful takeaways. I'm team Mike up here because at Rx, this is what him and his team did. It was like, we'd have a question of what's going on in the market. They were able to not just get data, but like manipulate it and tell stories. Always what I explain. Like you guys were amazing storytellers with data. So for anyone listening, I mean, when I came on Neilson and IRI, those were like the two. And then I remember profitario. We worked with a little bit which helped with commerce. So explain to everyone what numerator is, how that works, how you guys get data. I would love to just give everyone like a quick 101 on how it works. Yeah, absolutely. And thank you for the kind words you're far too kind. And it was a phenomenal team there that helped with a lot of that. It was an absolute mission for me. But numerator is America's largest single source on the channel panel. And what we do is, you know, we have a consumer facing. app that we collect receipts from. So a consumer goes out, does their grocery shopping, takes a picture of the receipt on the app, the more receipts they upload, the more rewards that they get. That's how that worked. Yeah, so there's a clear one-to-one value exchange. And the process of gamifying it like that turns uploading receipts into a habit. So we have a very strong static panel. And when I say static, it means consistent uploads month over month, multiple trips, multiple retailers so that you can start longitudinally seeing how consumer patterns are shifting over time. And more importantly, and this is where Numerator really stands apart and shines, we can connect one to one to e-commerce. So we can understand how someone may have started on Amazon and now where they're shopping brick and mortar. Oh, wow. As we saw with COVID, you're on brick and mortar, you just shifted to Instacart. We're tracking Instacart as well. So we're collecting receipts. We link into the consumers on the app with their permission, of course, their Amazon account, Instacart, retailer, loyalty. So we get, again, that full on each channel. Wow. And so when you connect to Amazon, when someone purchases on Amazon, that just like goes to Numerator, like the receipts kind of flow over to Numerator the same way automatically. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Cool. Oh, I didn't know that it comes late. So it's, you know, allows us to do a lot for our brands and, you know, Numerator itself has been around for, I think this is the 11th year they launched in 2012. And that receipt technology, in uploading receipts is, you know, very much a disruptor in the market research space. And this is where things get super fun to work with a lot of brands. Because we're collecting data at the receipt level, we have verified purchasers. So we know two days ago of somebody purchased elite sweets or elite donuts. And we can trigger a survey to that consumer to say, hey, what do you think? Why? Why? What do you think of pricing? If you did a reformulation, I know you mentioned that they, yeah, they're going into shelf stable now. shelf stable. What do you think of the new shelf stable product? So we can start understanding like very quickly, almost real time. Why consumers are making the decisions that they are. So when you think about taking a step back data at large, you have two main sources for, for CPG. You have point of sale data, which is what's going through the register. Maybe your kind of meal, snire, ice, spins. That's going to tell you what happened. What was purchased? Was it on promotion, things like that? Panel is really the why behind the buy. So you can understand like, what consumers have only bought one time. And this is another area we do a ton of work on. Who are those one time purchase consumers? Where do they shop? Where do they consume media? How do they buy? What do they look like, demographically, psychographically, to then help inform marketing strategies and try to convert those one time buyers to two, three, four time buyers? Oh, interesting. Do you try to inform them? So if someone but purchased one time and they're not purchasing again, are there methods that you guys are using to try to get them to try it again, whether it's like a discount or some sort of promotion? Not through our platform. So we keep a very purest point of view where we do not want to bias consumer shopping, decision making, anyway, shape, or form. We want the purest form of consumer behavior possible. Now what we can do is take those insights, give it to the brand marketing team and say, hey, pure one time buyers are 18 to 25 year old males that over index on TikTok cooking videos. And then they can go start serving ads or partnering with influencers on TikTok cooking videos that over index with that consumer base to start running tactics to get those buyers to come back into the fold for that for that brand. Oh, love that. That's really cool. So then you work. So I get it. So consumer facing side, obviously that's where you're getting all the data inputs. And then on the back end, you work with brands because the brands then can obviously leverage the data sets to make smart decisions. Exactly. Exactly. And you know, we work with retailers as well. We work with Wall Street. We're actually, and this is a super interesting one. We're getting into more of the government space. You would be shocked at the level of data that the government has at, you know, their disposal. I think when they're putting out whether it's inflation reports or CPI, like that data is almost six months old by the time they're publishing the reports. Oh, wow. And with our database, like we, we track all this on our own. And there's a lot of free resources on our website where we're trying to better inform, you know, the US government on what's happening with consumer behavior. It's just, it's, it's a very cool time to be a numerator. Yeah. But what would the government do before a tool like numerator? Like where are they getting all this info? I see, I can't speak specifically to it's not a, not a group that I sit in, but I think you have some syndicated data providers that are sending in data, but it's not, it's not real time. I think it's just a data dump that gets sent over and then manipulated by economists to come up with reports and what, what they pump out. Yeah. Wow. Okay. And it's funny that one of the reasons it sparked wanting to get you on here was, which I love, I love it when people start posting like something that they're specifically interested in. And in my opinion, it starts kind of getting some virality. And for you to build off of what you just explain with numerator, Mike started from listening and I'll, I'll put a link to a recent one in the show notes. But Mike started posting essentially like category overviews on LinkedIn. So you like break down a category from the numerator data and you'll explain kind of like the good and the bad of where this category is trending, which I personally get, I get all nerded out on. I've, I've loved your posts just so you know. Thank you. Thank you. So for everyone listening, what are you, what are you excited about? Like you're looking at all these data sets and you and I are going back and forth on LinkedIn a little bit. I'll tell you my next, but do you have a specific category that you're, you're just like really fired up about, you know, we talk about our acts and Red Bull and where those, those categories were going back in those days, but you were just an expo too. Was there anything that stood out to you or looking at the data that kind of jumps off the screen as an area that's just exploding? You know, there's, I mean, it's what drew me to numerator and what, what I love about it is, you know, I, I've had a lot of brand experience and, and I've been fortunate in, in having the, you know, the experiences I've had, the people I've worked with in the companies I've worked at, but it's typically been singularly focused to one brand in those challenges. Right. With numerator, I get to work with multiple brands in the emerging to kind of mid market size base. So it's a loaded question to ask for a, for a favorite category because there's, there's a lot, obviously I posted on nutrition bars, which I have a consumer of. I love hot sauce. So that's another one. Oh, I saw that one. That was cool. I've gotten a lot of requests from other folks on, on categories to go into. I think one of the more interesting ones that's developing kind of right before our eyes is, is the disruption to carbonate its offerings. And you think about prebiotic, probiotic sodas, your ollie pops, your, your poppies, they are coming in and making a, a significant push. And it's not a flash in the pan. Like they are consistently growing households. As consumers become more aware, they try, they continue to buy. It's a category or a, a emerging category that, you know, I think has a ton of runway. Because, you know, it's a, you think flavor and functionality are two keys. The flavors there, I think historically like, yes, a category. I needed to be created by someone, but, right. You know, I think consumers to get the functionality were willing to sacrifice on, on taste. And I think this goes for a lot of categories at large when you're going more of a functional product focus, they'll, they'll sacrifice on taste. But with a lot of these prebiotic and probiotic sodas, the taste is awesome. Yeah. So I think really good. And, and consumers are willing to pay a little bit more for it, which that becomes more appealing to retailers. They can retail their start expanding space in the center store aisle. Maybe they give some beverage cooler on the, on the perimeter. Like, it just affords more placements and positions for brands. So that's, that's one I think is, is super cool and, and fun to look at, on the data side, because we're at the early stage. I mean, they've been around for two or three years or three or four years at this point. And that's just continuing to grow and grow. It's really funny you hit on that one because literally in the last week, my wife is bought Oli Pop and Poppy. And Poppy, she loves, I was pushing her, because I actually had Dave from Oli Pop on here a long time ago. I probably, I'm going to go to the next one. two years ago. Yeah. And they were definitely getting traction, but they've exploded since I talked to them. And it's funny because once you try them, I personally like, why would I ever have a soda? Like it just doesn't even make sense when you look at like what's in both. On the flip side, it's so much more expensive. So it's really interesting because that category to me, it seems like they're, I guess the same way protein bars kind of were when our ex came out, but I always feel like when there's such a separation between what was the old and what is the new from a price point, you're inevitably going to have this, like you're going to have this subset of consumers that just can't afford the better one. But I guess over time, maybe those prices could come down a little bit, but I don't know. It's interesting. Yeah. You obviously want to keep the premium price point as much as possible, but then you start getting into channel strategy. Like you're not going to have the same price at a, typically not at a whole foods as you will, you know, a jewel, a, you know, Walmart, of course, or Costco. So the price will come down. But what I hope doesn't happen is, you know, the category, which I think we're a ways away from happening, becoming commodity and that driving price down, which I don't, you know, it's good for the consumer, not great for the brands, especially when they're emerging in startup brands. Not just the super, super cool space. Definitely. And the one that I mentioned to you on LinkedIn, I don't know why, but I've become extremely bullish on this in the last, honestly, since Expo, and it's the non-alcoholic space and there's two big reasons. One, at Expo, that was my takeaway. There were so many brands. So there's obviously a lot of folks that are seeing something and there's so much, there's like, it's funny. I was my takeaway at Expo was there's, there's two parties that I noticed. One, brands that are trying to emulate what alcohol tastes like without the alcohol, which a couple I felt like got pretty close. And then the other side of the coin are brands that are saying, I don't want a taste like alcohol. We just want to be a cocktail experience, like a cocktail club, I think was what it was called or mocktail club. I can't remember. That one was, I thought was impressive because it was like very well thought out in the kitchen, where the flavors and taste came from. And then you go to the, like, I go, we have a jewel that's dentistry here in Elmerst. And go to the, you go to the, just the cold aisle. Now it is just, it's enormous. It's incredible how many brands are in that space that are all alcohol and how small the non-alcoholic space is. And then I take a step back and I look at just the even millennial direction that people are going with pulling back on drinking with things like, I, and again, I've worn like a whoop for a long time and I see that community. And that is the one thing that stands out to anyone that tracks with those types of tools is that of anything you put in your body, alcohol is probably the one that has the biggest effect. Yeah. And then I was reading this report the other day about Gen Z consumers, how Gen Z consumers that are in college today, I can't remember the data source. So that's probably an important piece to this. But the report said 60% are now saying they've been shrink less than our generation did in college, which is wild. Yeah. Like they're all like smoking and just doing other things besides drinking. I don't know. That one excites me just because I feel like there is just a, it feels like the younger generation is just pivoting towards like not wanting to drink as much. So it seems like there's an opportunity. But generational shifts. And again, this is what gets me stoked about like numerators. We can see all of this happening and playing out real time. Yeah, I mean, you nailed it with not with not hell. It's consumer driven by Gen Z. And you know, it's now making its way, you know, into older generations that are questioning, you know, what is my relationship with alcohol or, you know, maybe I don't want to drink as much or I want to feel comfortable in a social setting and have a can in my hand, but I don't want it to be a beer. And again, I think taste has come a long way in that category where some of the stigma is gone. There's still stigma there, no doubt. But it's reducing over time and you have products that actually taste better. So it's like enjoyable to drink and you don't feel like crap the next day. Like there's benefit on benefit on benefit and teach their own to do whatever you want to out there. But you are seeing a major shift happen real time. And again, what this means and means and the ripple effect that it has generationally knowing that it's starting now with Gen Z. I mean, big, big impacts and I would imagine there are many, many of alcohol brands that are figuring out and talking about, you know, what does this mean for us? And then I would think the mergers and acquisition space is going to heat up with more and more of these folks coming in. If I was a betting man, if you look at a lot of the categories that you and I both play in, it generally seems like, and I could be totally wrong here, but you look at Kellogg or General Mills or the ones that we've been close to and it's like, is there a product right now that I could see them acquiring? Like, I don't know. Like, there's just not a lot of the growth in the profitability that there was in 2015, 2016, 2017, when some of those crazy, crazy numbers were being put up and then the acquisition dollars that were being put out. And then you look at, I feel like the alcohol space is one where there really hasn't been a, I mean, there's been some, but there hasn't been like massive acquisition. I don't know. Yeah, I think there's a huge white space there personally. It feels like I could exactly what you said. If there were some brands that came up and actually made some, made a dent and actually saw some growth and had a profitable base, which is tough with canned goods. It seems like that could be a really juicy place for some of the major alcohol companies in the US because it just snatched some of those up and then they have, you know, a high growth and an alcoholic brand. And they, you know, same stories are excellent. All these other ones that we talked about. Totally. And it's a grind especially for beverage and, you know, you got big, big out brands that are probably not making it super easy. You get a lot of space in the store. So, you know, I have nothing but respect and admiration for a lot of these early stage operators in this environment that are just grinding it out to, you know, see the next day and keep seeing the next day and build their business, you know, one store of time. It's not easy, but it's doable. There are some proof points out there in the marketplace with strong brands gaining, you know, national presence and national reputations. It seems like in beverage too, what's so interesting is there's some brands that have the regional approach that seem like they do well enough because they can kind of keep their distribution tight so they can keep profitability to some degree. And then it seems like there's no middle ground like you either have to do that or then go national almost and like have a big distribution deal. There's not a whole lot of people in the middle, right? Or they burn out in the middle. Yeah. Because it's just so expensive and tough it seems like. It's, I think it's the one thing that, you know, I appreciate, you know, the folks that talk about it openly on LinkedIn, it takes a lot of money to start a CPG business and it's crazy. Make sure it goes. Again, going back to the RX bar, you know, unicorn in every sense of the word. Like that's not the norm. And with the shift now to companies, you know, favoring profitability over top line growth, like they don't really reinforce it further. And, you know, being really, really smart with how you're spending your dollars and, you know, folks are running out of runway and it is a tough, tough environment currently. I know that's been something funny on my side of the fence is that something that we've always tried to do since we started Noble was just we have this profitability approach to everything we do. I mean, I think it's one avenue that no matter what the economy is doing, it's just so important. No, right? It's so important to have a good understanding of your channels. It's crazy in the last eight to nine months, how much of a pivot I see brands are going through of where it was grow top line at all costs to now it's like, how do we have profitability? It's everything now. It would be interesting. I feel like in your space with innovation and categories that are growing because inevitably what that has to mean is, yes, some brands aren't going to make it, right? Which then questions like how fast some of these categories grow? Are you seeing anything like that? Like, are there any categories where not necessarily you see writing on the wall that brands are going to go out of business, but we talk about categories growing. Are there any that you think are shrinking that like there's better for you products that you and I are both interested in, but inevitably like it's just a tough category through this time that you might see that you think will shrink over the next year or two? Yeah, it's a tough one to answer. I would have to go run some numbers. I can only speak anecdotally and just kind of my gut and what I've kind of seen and experienced. When you're looking at the category level, we're talking about, think beverages, think, cookies, candies, like those are large categories. So the buying behavior will be there. It's when you go a step lower into subcategories where you start to see some of the shrinking and expanding and that of course when you go brand level. I think very much like it's going to come at the expense of big companies. I think you have a lot of disruption happening from these emerging brands that are delivering or extending a use education for, you know, The thing of protein bar, you typically have a pre-post workout or in the middle of the day, like a breakfast occasion or a dessert occasion, like finding additional ways to extend the usage of a product. And I think those will start coming at the expense of kind of the more legacy brands in the category. I know that's not a great answer to your question, but I think there aren't any categories that are going away any time soon. I think you have a lot of early stage brands that are blurring the lines of categories and extending those use cases that are probably taking some of the trips and the purchases away from your more longstanding brands on shelf. Got it. No, I think that's a good answer. I mean, what's interesting to me and I saw this at Expo, it seems like I go back. I remember towards the end of RX, there was a big debate internally before I left. This was probably 2018 and 2019. I remember talking to you about this. Keto. Exactly. Just like having this conversation of, is it something that's going to stick or not? Do you have any perspectives on that? Because I find that so interesting where like Paleo was one of the things we jumped on at RX. It's still around, but I don't hear anybody ever be like, oh, I'm Paleo. It's just, I don't know, that's not some people maybe eat that way, but I don't hear people. It's not this like loud and proud thing that people are slapping on their Instagram. You know what I mean? It's Keto for sure is. People want to say they're Keto all the time. It's so funny that you bring that up. I remember that time vividly at our ex because everybody, I don't know if you'll remember the chart that I'm about to explain, but everybody was showing the Google Trends chart. I remember this. Like Keto. Didn't you or Piers? Didn't you or Piers? You or Piers someone found this and was showing. Yeah. So, you know, Keto is an interesting one. And this is my personal opinion. This isn't, this isn't, I don't have data tied to this yet. I think Keto is probably wound down from where it was. I think there's a core consumer base, but that core consumer base, I don't think can be a real hit. I think that's a real hit. Yeah. A funny example not to call out a brand, but there's a bar called True Bar that my wife just picked up at Costco. Literally, it's True Bar and the exact same, it's not the same thing. fought, but it's really close. It's black and white. And then they use like really bright pink and green packaging. And it's basically just like, it's basically Rx's plant bar, but actually. Oh, okay. It's like vegan plant based P protein. But it just reminded me it was, you know, they say no bad stuff on it. It's just like, come on. Just just do, but they're in Costco. Gotta give credit. I mean, they're sure they're doing something. But yeah, the innovation side, I hope, I hope we see more brands try to bridge that gap. Totally. And, you know, you think about the way that that package came to life. It was, you know, Peter, Jared, Sam, Jesse going to CrossFit events and telling the bar. And they would talk about, you know, when somebody asked what is this, they would explain, you know, it's just a couple of dates, egg whites for protein. Like it was on the back of the old packaging and they found themselves like flipping the packaging over and going through it. And then that was like the inspiration that, you know, they gave to the packaging firm that they worked with and how they got to it. But it's, but it's simple stuff like that. Like you need to know the consumer. It has to be at the heart of everything. And that doesn't get unlocked unless you're having those conversations or you're in touch with the consumer and know, you know, what about your product is working for them. And why are they using it and why doesn't make sense? To be able to unlock things like that to help with that mass appeal and how you make that next jump. Because you're going to have a niche to start, but you're going to have to grow your consumer base if you want to get to the next level in terms of sales. Whether that be five mill, ten mill, fifty mill, hundred, whatever, maybe there are always going to be consumer cohorts that you're not tapping into that you have to understand to make those jobs. Right. You do. And that's wild. It's funny because the thing that just came to mind as you said that is I wonder if we're going to see a little bit of a pullback in that behavior. Because that's so true. They were literally at CrossFit events talking to CrossFit athletes getting that type of feedback. And when COVID happened, so much went remote. I wonder if that just inevitably is something that new brands now. It's an uphill battle because they're probably not boots on the ground as much as folks were back in 2014, 15, 16, 17. For sure. But I think that pendulum is going to swing back because you have to be. I still think that's really the only way that you can actually, you know, build a business or an effective way to build the businesses you win in your own backyard as a brand. Right. Your boots on the ground, your ad events, your local brochures, wherever you're getting placement. Once you win, I think you stage gated that prop at that point. What's the next most similar region we can go into? Because again, you want a cherry pick success along the way. Where are you going to do the best to then build that momentum and help that story for the next retailer that you picture or whatever it may be? But it all comes back to the consumer. So I think, you know, I always look forward to demos when I go to shop and I'm in stores. So I, you know, yeah, it feels like they're coming back more and more and, you know, having two young kids. I can't say I'm going to Coachella or Lala Pulusa. So I don't know what the sampling activities are there. But I feel like branch should be making an effort at those locations because it's, it's awareness and you're tapping into people when they're going into an experience where they're looking to try something new and can be easily influenced. And that's a shout out to Dr. Dreams Richardson, which it's one of his main focus points and is ramping your brand book. It's effective. Consumers are looking to be influenced there and having an effective field marketing strategy to meet them at that place and in an authentic way, be influenced to try the product is is pretty big impact. Oh, that's cool. I'd out to read that book. I'm now that's my list. I've not read it. It's a, it's a great one. Really good. Awesome. Well, to get into the, we're getting to the end of time here. So I have three questions that I always ask every guest. So the first one, and if you want to use that one, you can. But if you want to give another one, I'd love to hear it. The first question is source of knowledge that you'd want to share with the audience today. So whether it's a book, whether it's a podcast, you've listened to recently, you know, an article, anything like that that really like comes to mind right away that the audience should know about. There's, so there's two. Can I go a tour to it? Of course. Yeah. No, throw them out. All right. So the first one, I'm not going to use the one that I just shared because that one's still good, but breakthrough brands by Jared Shriver is another one where he's actually one of the co founders of numerator, which was formerly info scout, but he basically takes, you know, a look from 2016 to 2019. And the top, he takes each category top winning brands from that category and a losing brand from that category and talks about what separates the winners from the losers. Think good, be great. Yeah. But for four CPG brands, awesome read super interesting. Oh, wow. Okay. So that's that one. And then on a personal level, the boy, the boy, the mole, the fox and the horse is the second book. And this is more of a personal just kind of life, good message, good sentiment, really, really good book was given to us as a gift for our daughter, but I was so unbelievably touched by the book. And I don't know if I'm getting soft as a dad or whatever. Yeah, love love that one. So highly recommend that one too. Love it. Okay. I will check both those out. I'm putting the quite the book list. Like I've tried to talk to someone. I get really good books and like neither of those were on there. They're always new. And now my list is getting so long. I'm like, I don't know if we're going to dig out, but that's a good problem to have someday when I'm old and retire. Hopefully I can just finish all these awesome books. There you go. That's a great one, Mike. The next question is one of my favorites. This is actually a new one. So this is a new question that I wanted to ask you be a good one. So you've obviously had quite the career already. Is there anything for everyone listening that you would say at this point in your career has been a regret or just a huge opportunity that you've learned from that you want to take into the next part of your career, like basically the next half of your career as a young professional? That is a great question. I can't say it's a necessarily a regret, but it's definitely something to take further into my career. But it's saying yes more often and not being scared of what the challenge may be or what other people's perceptions of your own personal decision to make whatever that decision may be. Not letting that hold you back. I think getting more uncomfortable in, hey, I might not whether it's role related or learning something new, am I a perfect fit for this role? Maybe not, but say yes to it, try it, see if it works. I think a lot of growth, at least I've seen so far has been at the times where I've taken a risk and said yes, even one, maybe I didn't think I was fully qualified to go do the job. You don't know that until you say yes and you know, a lot of it doesn't work out, you fail. So let dust yourself up and get back out there. That's a really good one, man. I just had a conversation with someone the other day because I was looking back, I'm 31 and I realized that the right when I got into college, I really started getting into the weeds of investing. So I've been in that game for 10 years, like actually putting money towards stuff. I've been doing it for 10 years, which feels crazy. It's crazy, I think I've been out of college that long. I was like, I should take more risks. Back then, I was like, oh, I got to make sure you're being smart. Don't take too big a risk. You're like, I could have taken so many more risks in my career, invest it. It's a good one, Mike. That is a good one because you don't realize how much time you have, hopefully. Yeah. And it's the Chinese proverb, the best data to plant the tree was 20 years ago, the next best days today. Like hell, yeah. You just got to go do it. Yeah, absolutely. That's really good. Appreciate that. Hopefully everyone love that one and can take something from that. The last question, and this one I'm a nerd about. So I love asking this one because all the smart people I have on here that are way smarter than me have way better ideas. But what tools do you use to get shit done on a daily basis, but also to achieve the goals you have, whether it's life, career, like do you have, are you a pen and paper kind of guy? Use apps? Like what do you use? Just kind of like map out and get your shit done. Panda planner is panda planner. I've heard of this one is my biggest one. That has fundamentally changed how I just approach my day, week, month, year. It's basically a pen and paper notebook where you go out and plan your week ahead. I do it on a Sunday. Every morning I started off planning my day from, you know, what are my three, you start with what are you grateful for? Which is always a great way. way to start the day, top three priorities, tasks that need to be get done. I've adapted it a little bit to fit my knee. I've been doing it for probably two years now. But it's just the best way for me to focus and make sure I'm spending my time against the highest value and highest impact areas and just a way to cut out some of the noise and clutter because you get the whole quadrant of important and urgent and making sure I'm in that important and urgent and not doing stuff that just isn't a priority. I love that. I use something similar. It's called the full focus planner. I mean, if you're in one of those, it probably gets ads for all of them. Same exact thing though. You're big three for the day. You have a weekly view where you sit down on a Sunday and map it out. I should be a salesperson or they should be a sponsor and podcast by now because I give them way too many free plugs. But it's funny because there's so many apps out there and everyone loves the apps because you can capture everything. But if you just get whether I know one other person that loves those panda planners for full focus is funny on my shelf that no one can see. I started it right before Kyle and I started working on a no-bowl and I've had a notebook every quarter. And it's funny. I can I read through it all the time. You can see how I never used one of those before. And the time you can start something or get something off the ground is just like using one of those planners. It really gets you to stop and think about what's important. I'm a diehard in those. Totally. Yeah, that's the biggest one for me. At least the one that immediately comes to mind. I love it. That's awesome, Mike. Well, cool, man. Well, can't thank you enough for coming on the podcast. I know some sure. Yeah, thank you for having me. This is great. This has been awesome. Love your stuff. You've had some terrific guests and you're even better to talk to on the podcast. And that just listen to. Well, thanks. I appreciate it. It's funny. You know, I someone just asked me the other day, they're like, what's your end goal with the podcast? And I was like, it's growing. It's consistently grown. I don't have an end goal to be honest with you. It's people talk about hobbies like this is one of my favorite hobbies I have. I get to talk to cool people like you. And like, how often do you get to sound with even for an hour and just talk about stuff like this? Like even if you're in an office, like you don't get to sit down for an hour, actually like focus one on one and talk somebody. So totally. It's awesome. You know, it's funny. And I say this way too often too, but you really should. You would you would have a great podcast. You got a great podcast. You have really cool information. Like, have you cool for you to have people on in the industry and just talk about, you know, categories and different growth mechanisms? I think it'd be sweet. Yeah. Well, I don't know how you're doing it with a new board at your place and the job. I need my wife to figure out the time management aspect. But I appreciate that. Thank you. The key is you don't sleep. Yeah, you just do just keep going. I don't really sleep a lot. I just work and do podcasts all day. Oh, man. All right, Mike. Well, thanks so much, buddy. I will, I'll let you know when this is when this is up in live. And I can't thank you enough whenever I will. As always, everyone listening, I'll add show notes to get to Mike to learn more about numerator. All the stuff he talked about. This is awesome. Man, I appreciate it. Of course, man, keep, keep crushing it through. Great, great chat with him. Thanks for having me on.