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Ep 2 | Killing Tiberius

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Ep 2 | Killing Tiberius

This transcript presents a fictional, high-stakes strategic analysis exploring the hypothetical assassination of the Russian president through asymmetric means, framed as a feasibility study within a geopolitical risk consultancy. The team evaluates operational pathways, including targeting the president during a speech in Vladivostok or through a covert mission in China involving a retired British special forces operative. However, they emphasize the extreme risks—such as retaliatory nuclear strikes from FSB or internal political destabilization—making such an action highly dangerous and counterproductive. Instead, the discussion pivots toward alternative strategies, particularly "super-sanctions" designed to economically pressure Russia into diplomatic concession. The narrative blends real-world geopolitical tensions with fictional elements, such as a novel titled *Killing Tiberius*, which centers on a covert operation in China. The underlying theme is the danger of institutional groupthink and the need for unconventional, heretical thinking in strategic decision-making. The conversation also reflects on Britain’s defensive posture, its training of elite forces, and the legacy of historical military traditions. Ultimately, the session underscores that while direct action against a leader may seem feasible, the broader strategic implications—especially regarding escalation and domestic instability—make it a deeply flawed and risky proposition. The discussion concludes with a focus on risk assessment, ethical boundaries, and the importance of divergent thinking in national security planning.

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This series contains strong language and violence, it is fiction, resemblance to reality is coincidental, this is barehunt, previously on barehunt. - Hey, Dave! - We're talking a signal consistent with. - GPS disturbance. - Deliberate? - Do we think? - We assess Prime Minister. With high confidence, it was Russian. - Prime Minister? Your brother, he says it's urgent. - Don't do what, exactly. - Hold the Russians accountable. - Holding the Russians accountable is World War Three. - Our friends in Washington have expressed our concern. - Fuck off! - You know what they say when you come across the bear? - You don't fucking run. If you're old, I'll build a miracle. - There's a back channel, the US. - And Russia. - Our biggest ally is now protecting them. - Link up with Duffy. - Duffy. Robo, come take a pew man. - Duffy, get down, man. - They were a mile away in grave new world, Robo. - Grab down him! - Fuck the fuck he means no way! - Keep it in him! Keep fucking it in him! Get down! - Prime Minister Karnaway. - Don't have on his face. - This is from the plate manifest. - Eloise Rice. - Real surname is Karnaway. - Tell Robo to break the car. - And tell my brother I'm on the way. - It was just last time I'm your sister-in-law. - You could at least have a slightly difficult conversation with me. - Russian, it's complex. - What are you gonna fucking stand up? - My favourite. - Prime Minister. - We're going on a bear hunt. - Pilgrim. - We're going to catch a big one. - Well, I'll be ready to play. - I'm not scared. - The British lion, the Chinese tiger, the Russian bear. - That's the key, Alex. That's the key. - Lions and tigers and bears. Oh my. - We've got a path. We've got a path. It takes us east. - We hit pickup point Charlie at 1,400. - 1,400. That works for me. Marge Garotty, you take the rear. I want a solid line. Franklin, Ice North, Williams, you point south. We shuffle through in a pack. - You got it. - And we both now. - How are we doing, Williams? - South is clear. - We keep our eyes open. We stay on the path at this speed. - The bomb. - Damn it. - We're coming fire. - Like we've seen that, Harris. God, fuck. - God, damn it. - You're not a head. You're fucking dead. Headshot. - He's fucking dead. Two in the chase. This building. - This one. - Williams. - Congrats, Williams. You are got shoulder. I got arm. I got right leg. You're crawling your way back to Mrs. Williams. - Why do we take this fucking path? - It heads east. We'd reach Charlie. - No, you wouldn't. - With all due respect, Charlie is exactly 1.2 miles. - With all due respect, I created this path this morning to see if there were anyone stupid enough to pack into a fucking street line, and kindly fucking Kanganaway into my rounds. - We recognize the path of least resistance. - The resistance was a 556 in your brainstem sergeant. - Yeah. So, earlier on the ridge, I think we, we double back. - No, no, no, no. We don't replay. We think Call of Duty. End X. - Shite! - We are the Strategic Advisory and Analysis Institute. We are a think tank in essence, advising our defence security and geopolitical risk. We do a lot of work on escalation, deterrence and instability. And as you know from the position, we are investing in our strategic futures consultancy arm. And yeah, that's why we're reaching out to candidates such as yourself. And if you could tell us a bit about you, Daniel, that would be great. You currently work in insurance. Is that right? - Great, great. No, no, no, really exciting. And I'm fully aware of you guys. So, great to be here. Well, not here with you. I met my remote working space. And yes, I am Daniel Marcel. I work in insurance. A boutique risk advise we currently, we will work with energy, shipping, aviation, insurers. I had a small stint. Five years at the Ministry of Defence, at the Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre. Primarily as Red Team Analysts, designing hypothetical attacks, escalation paths, like you say, failure modes. Five, that's four years. It says here, is that right? Sorry, yeah, so just over four years, yeah, four and a half years. So, you went into insurance in 2022? Is the reason for the 2018 to 2022 gap classified? It's not. No, that's not. Right. Yeah, no, so the gap I wrote a few like, I wrote three novels in that time. That deep thinking it's the MOD sparked some ideas that I wanted to flesh out. But I've actually found insurance projects actually really exciting. And I think what were the books, the novels, what were they? Right, so the first was Red Team, I don't know if you know. I think the times really like, I mean, the times loved it actually, that got me the literary agent. And then the other two books kind of tapered off sales-wise. What are the titles? Do I know them? So Midnight in Cairo was the second one, I don't know if you know. Then the last one was Killing Tiberius. Killing Tiberius? Yep. But actually, what I've really found interesting about consultancy work. [Laughter] And there we have it, Pilgrim Old Boy. How much is that major then? This whole shag. Not a penny yet. No foal, no fee. We'll test the mayor in a week or two. If there's one in there, we move on to the next cover. Seems to be enjoying his retirement more than I am mine. Retirement? Yes. Although he makes more money now than I ever did running. If she's impregnated and now carries them in shops for all, that's an elite bloodline. That's 150K. 150K? Yeah. So you're enjoying your retirement too then? No, at first. So I thought I missed the challenge of competition. So I threw all that bloody money into racing. But it wasn't that. I missed drawing up a plan, Pilgrim. A good old nuts and bolts plan. So on the size coming season, I get my book and I plan it out. It turns out I wasn't a spy master all those years. It's just a fucking bore. Anyway, surely some Pilgrim more doesn't want for too much after the tap on the shoulder from the palace. Tap on the shoulder. Pat on the head more like? Not quite, retired. Rather in the grey zone somewhat. Grey? I'd say bold entirely. Speaking of grey zone. I have a question for you, Albert. How would you kill the president of Russia? Someone wishes for a knight to rid them of a turbulent president. Are you asking for a friend or a foe? I'm asking for my latest adventure. An operation, examining. be unconventional. I would, I'd ask the SBU give them what they needed to pull it off. No states, not even Ukraine. No states. What funny little war game are you playing, building? You've made a firm. Asymmetric lethal mitigation advisory. Alma. Nuts, named after the first pitch battle between Britain and Russia in 1854, I hope. Tread carefully, old boy. I forget you have a horse of your own. In that sap-curnaway. Albert, I'm sure I'm not the only lucky mayor on your stud-brook this season. An old stallion like me. I have my options laid out. In which case I will, I will advise in the abstract. Beware of the tendencies of the institution, Pilgrim. The prevailing opinions blow us all in the same direction. Western intelligence agencies are an orthodoxy. For all the zealots you speak with, make sure you find yourself at least one heretic. That's a good boy. What now? Does he have a cigarette or something? So who's next? Keith Boxall. A boxall of Voxall. You're on the China disc the last time I worked with him. He's done considerably well since then. You're not speaking with him an unofficial capacity, I hope. Dinner party. So you got client? Angling for work, Keith, unlike you, I'm going to lean into that spook vengeance or not. I don't want any fucking word. Come on, right? I'll ask you a simple question. Just Simmy, are we? Feasibility study. Hit me. The big fucking smile on my face. Don't share it. A man has evaded 43 assassination attempts. What would need to be different about number 44? It's a question at the front of certain agencies and the nation's state's minds. Who the fuck is your client? No way some fucking church and separatist can afford it. Your craniums won't do it. They tried it. Feasibility study. You're saying it? Exactly that. Comparative outcomes, leadership removal, regime decapitation effects are already indeed analysis on this. Back in 2021, I'll afford it. I've read it. No outcomes. Not our scope. Just the act. My scope being the opposite word, then. What are the weak points, Keith? That's the question. The institutional failures, the dependencies, the rusting, rotting, decaying, exposure points. That could be exploited. And that exploited, you mean. Bulletin is fucking ill. Would it be a bullet? Well, you can't do poison, can you? Nah. No, nah. IED. On the auras, it's VR-10 key. Proved to at least 15 kg of high explosive. It'll survive a howitzer. Packed 20 kg, they're 30 kg for good measure. Pressure plate on the road. Bang, fireball right into the fucker's prostate. 30 kg of high explosive dug into what road exactly? In Moscow, St. Petersburg. BFB, then. Explosively formed penetrator. Remote, targetable. I'm a penetration. The Russians used two identical Aura Senats. We know of at this point. But two fucking EFPs I'm building, Jesus. And we don't know the seat layout. With an EFP, you have to hit the target. Sticking with explosives. Schedule visitation. Get your best field agent to punch it. Collateral. Fucking bet. The problem now is which one of you just blunt pieces during some infirmary to a fucking crush nadar. Six body doubles. The fins are saying it could be more like eight or nine. You could do it. You could pick him out. Sink a few vodka's trying to buy the old times. I'm forgettable, thank goodness. He's not. One becomes an intelligence officer. The other becomes a president. If only he could have done it then, ingestin. Angelica Straza. Yes, those tree remind crushing arms, control discussions, under the date hunt exchanges. So we know the man can't be bought to death. He was right there, chair back against the wall. He didn't speak. He didn't drink. He didn't shift around or it's just there against the wall like some dreary painting. Everything just completely unmoved. A death mask. Mr. Chance, bit of onstuffenberg actually. With a little foreign office satchel. One thing I can't help notice in this library of yours, Keith. Yeah. Rather like our Russian bear, it is a double. Identical to mine, same books, same authors, same titles. Vertical vlasty. That's the Russian disease. Personalist autocracy. Everything dependent on that mute KGB kid in Dresden all those years ago. The whole system is structured to please him. It's why they bogged down in the Donbass. It's why Navalny is dead. It vent yenko. Better soft ski. But what is our disease, Keith? Moral indecision? No. It's this. My fucking bookshelf. Group think. The total homogenization of views. This relentless convergence of opinion. Institutional bias. Don't have shitload of stories on it. They'd happily commission another if your alma project can give it to him. When I was a boy, we had this dog, Randolph. Bulldog, a hacking weezing lump. Didn't make it past seven, I don't think. The English bulldog was bred to bait Bull's Keith. Fucking Bulls. Hence Bulldog. The strength of it. The weight of it all those dense muscles packed into the front quarters. The spring of its nimble hind legs. And then the face, streaks of skin to drain away the blood of the bull. Biological gullies to ensure that dog could clamp down and never, ever fucking let go. Not until victory. A perfectly designed creature for the task at hand. Look at it now. The way I looked at poor Randolph. Over a century, without deviation or variation, that creature is crippled by the very traits that made it what it was. It can't walk, it can't mate, it can't breathe. So you want out the box thinking, in short. I want someone that doesn't use the phrase out the box thinking. All right, I'm going to suggest two lads. Simeon Shaw, Professor Wayne Ellis. Simeon's your master of conflict. He does most of his work in Washington now. And when is a fucking NATO brain box? Come on. Bill Green. Goodness. We may have one. What's that? A deviation. Hey, Daniel Marcel. Not hoping. Oh, Christ, take it. Got five of each fucking what I felt bad for the lads. He wrote all these novels, it's all shit's all. Seriously take one. Take two. I'm going to see if these let want some lavender if you camo my bollocks. What does he do now, Marcel? You went into the insurance game. (dramatic music) - Killing tie buries. (dramatic music) - Thank you for contributing to this feasibility study, gentlemen. - I'm glad to be finally working for you in some capacity, Pilgrim. Shemma couldn't happen in Cheltenham. Very nearly, it's Sonak. - Ships in the night. - You in a US warship, of course, and me in a little English rowing boat. That's who pays the bills these days, is it not, Mr. Shaw? - That's right, defense contractors, all US. - We're talking joint exercises, hybrid conflict planning, all of that. - Yes, sir. - And you, I don't know, too well, win Ellis. Her good things, likewise. Thank you for having me. I'm somewhat blinded by the spark of your CV, so do forgive the squinting. PhD in International Relations and Strategic Geography, Senior Policy Fellow for ECFR on Eastern Europe and Russia, Center for European Policy Analysis, focusing on NATO's Eastern flank, German Council on Foreign Institute relations, finished Institute of International Affairs, and the Polish one, too, the three years at Globseg in Bratslava, regional advisor, Khrank, Kyrzmoldova. Senior Research of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, focusing on arms, dynamics. This thing, programmly, that ORAF, focusing on the India, Russia, China, Triangle, and finally, senior lecturer and course director at NATO Defense College. It speaks English, French, Russian, Mandarin, German, Arabic, and Welsh, pre-known there. Is that good afternoon or something? Exactly that, Mr. Moore. Very impressive. Right, well, we have a fun little project. The bones of which are in here, but the flesh had comes now from us in this room today. Can you clarify the origin of this line of inquiry? No. This is a theoretical exercise. Because if we're evaluating risk to the contributors, as it were, we would need to understand the policy context. All the relevant context will be structured as a framework today, and disseminated into an operation order or a frago. A frago that says to kill the president of Russia. Yes. As a tarot cell unit? Potentially, money and institutional influence will, in this exercise, side with the unit, however. Alma, gentlemen, asymmetric lethal mitigation advisory. Not going to be diplomacy by numbers, is it? Well, this is extremely fucking asymmetrical. It has to be. I mean, there's grey zone warfare, Pilgrim. Then there's this. Yes, but wins, friends, and NATO don't participate on the grey zone battlefields, do they? We are grey zone pacifists. These are counterweight operations to a system that could become compromised. You too, both unable to stick it out to rise through the ranks at MI6, M-O-D, G-C-H-Q. You're not getting any work with the cabinet anytime soon. And the days of protecting this country from the threat of Russia are being counted down every day. All you have to do is look along the bottom of sky news. The British people are heading to the polls imminently. That's the clock. Then everything you've ever done, studied, trained for, advised on, comes to an end. London grad is going to sell one final townhouse to the Russians. Number 10, Downing Street. Six birds, six baths, and a home office that controls the greatest nation this world has ever known. You want to talk about grey zone warfare? We've damn near-lost it, Simeon. I-- look, I suppose the simple pushback on the premise is that this is a declaration of war. Nobody is declaring war. Non-state or semi-deniable violence can absolutely still trigger state liability and war. Black Hand 1914, Ergen 1940, Viet Kong PLO, Hezbollah, little green men. If-- look, Iran are strategically responsible for the Houthis. Houthis are trained and funded. Even if the actor is just tolerated or merely unrestrained, history is consistent, Mr. Moore. Brutally so. Global millions of lives could be billions. No. One life. Just one. One life to pay for many. Hey, just a feasibility study. Just a game. Consider the strategic partnerships for us. Once again, we are still reading the rules. Are we going to play or not? The assassin. Mm-hmm. Do we need to get him home? [ENGINE REVVING] Prime Minister. Pilgrim, how's-- how's-- how's everything? Slow but steady. Having a cigarette? Have you banned that too? Haven't had my phone on? Seriously? A cigarette? Cancer is in my pancreas. Not my lungs, Prime Minister. Pilgrim, I suppose keep it going. But I've got-- I'm meeting the US president in Paris. Mel's coming with me. We're putting our opposition forward for super sanctions. Super sanctions? Yeah, that's right. Goodness me. Who needs trident when you have super sanctions? Helgrim, I'm exploring. OK? I'm exploring avenues, options. As am I, Prime Minister. [ENGINE REVVING] Breathe. Breathe with me now. Oh, flagging. You're not fucking flagging. You're not flagging. You're in pain. You know what they say about pain, eh? Wait, man. Leaving. The party. That's right. Every breath out. Off it fucks, eh? Cleanse it. Get rid of it. You're not weak. You're a ranger. Surrounded by the finest soldiers. Your nation produces. Are you lungs burning? Yes, sir. Well, I'll tell you what. Look around you. These red-flowered trees are red, right? That's a Ohio Lua native trees of Hawaii. They grow on lava flows on fucking lava. The locals make weapons from the wood that grows from fucking lava. Fuck that ass. Too fucking right. What's your name? Barnet. Where? Back and read. What's your name? Roman. Roman, you're not some fucking houseplant that whelps next to the couch because you got two toasting. Too comfortable, eh, Roman? You're not the fucking Ohio Lua. Molten Rock and lava don't burn you. Not you, eh, pal? It feeds you, eh? We are going to create a weapon out of you from the lava pit of your pain. Yeah, yeah. Right. That's it. We'll pass these lots. The man in front of you is your objective. Hunt him down, get past him, and onto the next objective. That's how battles are fought and wars are won, man. That keeps your brothers and your sisters at home safe. Push on. Fuck these Mr. Universe cunts. Get past them. Look at the size of that guy. Barnet, he fitness over effective horsepower. Look at those gymboards. Look at them all. Right now their bodies are burning like a cheap Yankee engine for the petrol. Sorry. Gasoline. War is mass. Do you want to add to your load? Do you fuck, Roman? That is hurt. Fucking pleasure. Grow in the fucking lava. That's it. There's a new chance here, Roman. [BLANK_AUDIO] In grief, let your roots set straight down for it. Now go on, go on, get up there, Roman, get up there! You could kill the wrong one. Lookalikes. Yeah. So we need intelligence or. An occasion where you get the real Russian breath. Correct. We had confirmation, back in February I think it was, that the real one was the keynote speaker, Vady Vostok. Good. Eastern Economic Forum. We got a lip reader on his talks with South African leaders. It correlated to a conversation he'd had the year before about Regnum. That would be frosty, good for the South Africans. Yes, Regnum ran stories about South African corruption. Mm-hmm. He was contesting that. Well spotted. If you want to kill a bag from Vady Vostok, you're in just about the most eastern location of Mother Russia, there fella. Even more isolated than I'm afraid. The keynote speech takes place on Rusky Island, off the coast. Operationally isolated. Well, one bridge, pretty rough seas on all sides. Let's see. Natural landing sites, steep rock, coastal radar coverage, naval patrols, batteries, bunkers, tunnels. Hundreds of miles across the East Sea to Japan. Even further South Korea. Mm-hmm. Very good. On land, it's even worse. 80 miles from China, 95 from North Korea. And actually, because of those immediate neighbors, the island itself is a kind of veneer. It's a point in the Far East that Russia has deliberately polished up as a sort of jewel in organic one, you might say. University campus, conferences, summits, delegations. This sort of very managed openness. That's a potential location, then. Give me a potential method. God almighty. So, ensuring that it's here, the real president. Mm-hmm. Russian president. Rosky Island Vladivostok. Keynote speech, Eastern Economic Forum, 6 June 2026. Lead time is at least manageable. Every point from now, our assassin could begin their work in Russia. Off-grid. Offal comms. Correct. So the EEF takes place in a semi-permanent venue. It's put out at the beginning of the summer. Stages, pavilions, exhibits. Your assassin could work for the contractor that builds up the event infrastructure. Plant the explosives in the stages and platforms itself. Maybe. How would that even work logistically? Timion. Pribory. You're only chance. Down at a military compound. We could look at regiment losses in the Donbass. Find the most dissolutioned fuckers and try and break them for a few million rubles. Get a serious amount of explosives often. Vladivostok is the administrative center of Primorsky Cry. That region is consistently overrepresented in battlefield dead relative to population. Also, to them, the war isn't on the doorstep. It's 7,000 miles away. It's in a distant land. To say the conflict is unpopular, we're beyond a plane. After Primorsky Cry, there's Kabarovsky Cry. Another major contributor of personnel and casualties. That's your region to the north. Again, favorable ground to exploit this content. Very good professor. High explosives under our keynote speaker. Remote detonation. Operative could leave. 48, possibly even 72 hours before. So a head start for South Korea or Japan. Alternatively, through the Leopard National Park, take your chances across the border in Halongjiang, China. I'd be more concerned about snow leopards than actual leopards. The snow leopards are Chinese special police here. I know what the snow leopards are. Now, Russia can give you that opportunity with the corruption that discord in the Far East. But otherwise, trying to pull this off in Russia itself, that's a problem. Yes, please, Mr. Shaw. That's what we like to hear. What is this problem? You're in Russia. That's a problem? Because last time I checked, our target was based there. That's a big fucking problem. Russia are nothing outside their borders, but inside they control everything. Everything. It is a den, Mr. Moore. Russia is a wing to den. There's nothing they want to defend it. Another history lesson. Thank you. You are choosing to take on FSB in their own backyard. I know we're strategizing a particular phase of an action. But look at the outcomes for a second. FSB will either treat this as a Ukraine problem and you'd be looking at a tactical nuclear strike as their retaliation, or at least their FOAB, or they'll treat this as a domestic problem. Domestic threats include chechens, Caucasus Emirates, Islamic State, NRA. Let's say you do this in Vladivostok. Maybe they wait Buryet Republic and the Yakuts too, just as a matter of geographics. You will then bold in Ruskia versus Russia. The ethnic Russians versus the administered margins. Yes. And this is a gift to the already overpowered Syloviki, to the Impertsi, to the Dharajavniki. This would make them stronger. You're decapitating a regime for no gain whatsoever. And that's why this is Plan B. Greet him in the centre beneath the logo. Shake, he doesn't want longer than five or six seconds, he has a bruised hand. His comms team have talked about your left hand? My left hand. They don't want it planted on the President's forearm. I'll try my best. Few photos then move off, no questions. No questions. Not here, no, and no questions later on B8236 or Ukraine. Exit stage rights with his team once had it concluded. I will do. Mr. President. Prime Minister, how are you? I'm good. Oh, you look good. Now you look great. You look great. And you sir. Excited to have these conversations. So exciting. Truly such an opportunity to get his set and talk. I love opportunities. Love them. You like opportunities too, Alex? Yeah, I love opportunities too. Josh is Department of Business and Trade, and this is Mel Murray, as well as being a close friend. Sometimes enemy. Double's partner too. Tennis. Oh, tennis. Wow. Routes serve. Oh, I bet. Mel is also Acting Director of the Secret Intelligence Service. Am I six, sir? Like James Bond? Am I six, hey now. That's so great. Really top-notch intelligence agency. Hey, Mel. Mel. Take a seat. Alex, come sit. Sit right here. Thank you so much. Straight to what we're talking about. What we talked about. Talking about. Much discussed frustration with the. I'm just reading your notes. I'm listening. Great. We feel the next step is, and we'd like your team to use this moniker too, when these discussions are concluded. We are constructing super-sanctions. Super-sanctions. Wow, okay. And they'll be armed and a turbocharged to blow apart the economies of hostile states. Holy shit. That's some powerful stuff. Powerful stuff. Full repurposing of confiscated assets. Block on maritime insurance. That's what we call the Lloyds line in the document. Any vessel containing Russian goods immediately cut off from the city of London. And that's a big thing that that would have actual financial consequences. Absolutely, sir. It may not always look like it, but Britannia still rules the waves. And the financial chokehold with secondary bank sanctions. Banks that deal with Russian institutions or Iranian ones, right? Mm-hmm. They lose access to U.K. U.S. markets. Super-sanctions. Super-sanctions. Great stuff. What is the objective? Prime Minister. So the objective is for Russia to admit responsibility. This is regarding the plane. Yes, admit responsibility, but crucially to withdraw from Greyzone conflict entirely. It's a peace plan, in a sense. But Russia needs to. There needs to be. Oh, great. Yes. Oh, yes, Beth. Beth, bring that through here. This is so exciting. I didn't think they'd get it here, but they got it here. So I spoke with Mark. You're a guy. U.S. ambassador to U.K. Yeah, yeah, great guy. Great guy. He's doing a good job. You like Mark? Moms, great. He told me he told me you guys had a Super Bowl night over there one time in London. He said you were quite the fan Yeah, yeah many lost early hours to American football sea hawks Yes, yeah, you love the sea hawks, right? Right. Yeah, I spoke to the owner. I got this look at that look at that look at the back Wow his jersey from the Super Bowl from the game. Isn't that beautiful? Isn't that amazing? Thank you, mr. President and and as as the end of your time approaches and it's been great You've been doing amazing things absolutely amazing things truly is cross still. Oh course of course This is politics and I wanted to make sure I got this done now after your term I spoke to the league to many many of the team owners - they're all friends of mine would go way back to anything I ask of them. I spoke to them. I told them about you about your leadership about your your skills They want to talk to you about becoming a global representative for the league you'd Well, you'd be speaking to the teams about your your expertise you'd be Special representative Wow was the title. Yeah, how's that sound? Special representative, huh? Special representative special representative for the special relationship. No, I could write headlines Good night write the headlines myself Maybe maybe look into that You're totally sure. I mean amazing offer. Isn't it? What a way to go out. Hi Alex. A new well a new life a new start doing what you love. That's that's beautiful, right? absolutely beautiful beautiful You want to go out with a bang? Yeah of course Ah, that'll be mr. Marcell Hi, you're suppose we're more on you. I am you are Daniel Marcell. Yes, that's me. This is I'm genuinely on it Hello, Daniel. This is Simion Shaw former army man. Then mortgage is sold for cyber at Cheltenham Then remorgaged for some US armless manufacturers Good to meet you you too, and this is win Ellis. Hi, hello future sec general of NATO from the sounds of it If there is such a thing in ten years amazing amazing wow great stuff I'm just gonna sit down here and this the album projects. You're looking for Risk assessment analysis or we talking on are we talking predetermined covered assets or kind of zoom out like macro decision Daniel works in insurance Yes, sorry, I've Daniel Marcell. I'm a strategic risk advisor for anthems. Don't know if you know anthems No, but he agency in the city. I do I do brokerage to and underwriting so that's sort of three and one but But genuinely I spend most of my time in risk research strategy Great Do you take a lot of risks yourself Daniel? Can do yeah can do yeah You did with this Ah What's that there's a novel it's rather good Daniel quit a ministry of defense job to write it That's a risk isn't it That was that no, so that's actually my last one. I did red team which sold we sold quite well Red team so tell us what it's about We're red team. Oh this one. So there's this sped and Well, so at the start his wife is in this car accident and he doesn't know it at the time But she was she was actually pregnant with what he could we skip forward a few chapters right? Yeah, yeah to skip it forward the the kind of central premise is the well, so Tiberius is the codename for the president of Russia And the British have a plan to kill him right which is Well, they get Britain's best soldier Britain's best soldier how exactly without me determined it in what metric it's friction Professor Ellis right and they retire him special forces retire him and send him to To China to assassinate to kill yet to kill Tiberius and it's kind of you know, it's kind of exploratory Like it's a deeply personal story why China Well, I mean, it's it's a bit MoD days got the better of me and writing it's just like massively over detailed in that we'd like to hear it of course, so the The Russian president visits China on a guaranteed recurring annual basis at a parade in Beijing every third of September to celebrate victory over Japan Yes, yeah, exactly so it's a guaranteed appearance of the actual president not one of his doubles because of the Nature of their diplomatic relationship China Russia super power subservient power But also like I go into this whole thing because for such visitations China has to sign off the security personnel It becomes a kind of skeleton security staff for the Russian president and they have to take that, you know It's China. They're dependent on China. So he does it there in Beijing the soldier does because the president's security in the FSB here at a disadvantage Yes, yeah, it's I think the characters won't fully fleshed out, but I enjoyed kind of workshopping all of that happens You want spoilers? Well, okay what what diplomatically what happens because she's I mean really if that happened in China The Chinese wouldn't warrant a Russian investigation No way and you've immediately pushed Russia away you've It's a split a quite traumatic sudden rift in that partnership right between them So the next president has to has to be anti China has to be rather than anti-Chachan or anti-ISIS the US president on the other hand He fans the flames Of course he does Course he does because nothing would be better for him than splitting Russia from China Plus the bullet is is Chinese what the rifle and round in the story is is Chinese That would be difficult for them for Beijing. It would they would go dark. Yeah So Britain's best soldier how does he get into China and how does he get a Chinese rifle? The Brits retire him and he accepts freelance a freelance training Instructor gig is it worth air of Cameroon military and when he's in Yondi of course. Yeah, they're Chinese infrastructures Yes, exactly. Yes, the Chinese presence in Cameroon. They have a military and intelligence coalition with the Cameroonians So the Brits you know, they planned all this baits the Chinese to hire the stand-out bridge Bingo yeah And he's in China what a training troops police what haven't been the usage of firearms? Yeah, and that's how he gets to be in China with access to the rifle Yeah, yeah No, so that's that's killing Tiberius Anyway, no, so Mr. Moore regarding your initial career I Said find yourself a heretic you've gone for an insurance analyst But a bloody good one Albert now you must call your nights to arms Not the simple task. Yes, I best go the heretic approaches All good. Yeah, interesting day Thank you for your efforts don't pleasure. I'll just invoice. Yeah, same email. Same one great great Can't ignore this column afraid of course. No, yeah, actually Could I get you before you head off to sign a copy of your book for a friend of mine. Ah, yeah, no worries at all. Let me just Who's it to? Alex make it out to Alex The British lion the Chinese tiger the Russian bear That's the key Alex. That's the key Lions and tigers and bears. Oh my We are not in Kansas anymore who is going to be able to pull this off This is the United Kingdom, Alex. We don't have the kids but the men The best in the world prime minister. I'm sure what did the Ukrainians ask for what do they ask for more than anything train us Train our men to fight like the Brits do. Yeah I'm not asking the fucking French the angst even When the U.S. Department of War they know we bring in nearly 100 million a year training their meat heads. It had to be this, it had to be this. Centuries ago we would have sent an armada. It would have been at night, an exemplar, a champion, a paladin of the crown, put a Brit on the ground and the job will be done. But your super sanctions, of course, are they armed and ready for launch? No, not something the president wanted to discuss, he's somewhat rather creatively trying to distract me from my position on it. This operative, in the scenario you drew up, what is he exactly? Well, Britain's best soldier was the descriptor, how we identify such a person will take some investigation on my part and his payment would have to be reflective of the task. Leave it with me. With pleasure. Good night, Prime Minister. Cheers, pilgrim. Yes, sir. Robo, how long will you use special forces for? Well, ten years, so plenty of action, never too much action, of course. If I was to ask you, who Britain's best soldier was, I know, in what area or discipline exactly, just if someone asked you that, some layman like me, would you have an answer? Oh, what's that? KIA, KIA, wounded, KIA, how did we find ourselves down here, Jent? As a unit, we wanted to isolate where the enemy acoustics were coming from. Your operational home is in Texas, right? Where do you train? We'll train it further or when from time to time. So the fucking desert, basically. Yes, sir. Perfect training ground for Afghanistan, open desert, visibility for miles, and know what to hide from the United States Air Force orbiting above you. This is the fucking jungle, I've fought in the desert, I've trained in Belize, you could be ten feet away from an enemy platoon on hard routine and none of your fancy sensors will know about them. You need to trust basic soldiering skills. Look at the ground, listen to the jungle, like now, what are you here? Did you track him or did he just fucking sneak up on us? Yeah, kind of, you need to learn to read the jungle. Right now it's not your friend, especially at night. The noise dispass is much further than you or your drones can see. You need to do a little dispersing yourself, Sergeant McDuff. Doing that? Somebody wants you back home. [Music] [BLANK_AUDIO]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The group is conducting a strategic feasibility study on how to neutralize the Russian president, framed as a hypothetical asymmetric operation in a grey zone conflict.
  2. They identify key vulnerabilities in Russia’s political and institutional systems, including personalist autocracy and reliance on a single leader, which could be exploited.
  3. A proposed operation targets the Russian president during a keynote speech at Vladivostok’s Eastern Economic Forum, using off-grid, remote detonation of explosives in event infrastructure.
  4. The study highlights the extreme risks of such an action, including retaliatory nuclear strikes from FSB or internal political backlash that could empower hardline factions in Russia.
  5. The team explores alternative routes, such as targeting the president in China via a covert operation involving a retired British special forces soldier.
  6. A broader strategic shift is proposed
  7. The narrative blends fiction and real-world geopolitical risks, drawing on themes of institutional groupthink and the dangers of overreliance on conventional intelligence models.
  8. The discussion concludes with a focus on risk assessment, ethical dilemmas, and the need for heretical thinking beyond mainstream defense strategy.

Summary:

This transcript presents a fictional, high-stakes strategic analysis exploring the hypothetical assassination of the Russian president through asymmetric means, framed as a feasibility study within a geopolitical risk consultancy. The team evaluates operational pathways, including targeting the president during a speech in Vladivostok or through a covert mission in China involving a retired British special forces operative. However, they emphasize the extreme risks—such as retaliatory nuclear strikes from FSB or internal political destabilization—making such an action highly dangerous and counterproductive.

Instead, the discussion pivots toward alternative strategies, particularly "super-sanctions" designed to economically pressure Russia into diplomatic concession. The narrative blends real-world geopolitical tensions with fictional elements, such as a novel titled *Killing Tiberius*, which centers on a covert operation in China. The underlying theme is the danger of institutional groupthink and the need for unconventional, heretical thinking in strategic decision-making.

The conversation also reflects on Britain’s defensive posture, its training of elite forces, and the legacy of historical military traditions. Ultimately, the session underscores that while direct action against a leader may seem feasible, the broader strategic implications—especially regarding escalation and domestic instability—make it a deeply flawed and risky proposition. The discussion concludes with a focus on risk assessment, ethical boundaries, and the importance of divergent thinking in national security planning.

FAQs

The scenario revolves around a covert operation targeting the Russian president, framed as a geopolitical and military feasibility study involving asymmetric warfare and strategic risk analysis.

The main character is a British soldier codenamed 'Tiberius', who is actually the president of Russia in the story's fictional narrative.

The purpose is to pressure Russia into admitting responsibility for actions like the plane incident and to withdraw from grey-zone conflicts by imposing severe financial penalties on its economy.

It is operationally isolated, surrounded by strong naval patrols and coastal defenses, and politically sensitive due to Russia's strategic investments in the region's diplomatic and economic infrastructure.

The plan involves using indirect methods such as planting explosives in event infrastructure or exploiting domestic instability rather than engaging in direct, high-risk operations inside Russia.

It symbolizes the major global powers and highlights the strategic balance of power, with the UK representing the 'lion' and the mission being about maintaining national strength in a tense global environment.

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