Ep. 11 - Sixty Minutes W/ Domer | Predictive Programming

From Poker Tables to Prediction Market Trading Predicting predictable predictions. Speaker 2 Predictable predictions. Speaker 1 Predictable. Predictable. Speaker 2 Predictable predictive programming episode 12 Huge guest domers in the building. Speaker 3 Thank you so much, Domer for coming. I'm very excited to have you on. Speaker 1 Yeah, I'm excited to be here. Thanks for having. Speaker 2 Me, for those who don't know, I'll do the shortest bit of bio. Domer is up piles on everything. Basically everything was sports. I looked at your portfolio today and it was like whether or not E girls are actually men, like just the craziest things I've ever seen. Anything but like an NFL football game. You're in there. Really impressive. But why don't we start from the top just a little bit so we have some solid round underneath us. Can you tell us a little bit about how you got started in trading, gambling, whatever the journey was and and and how you've arrived at the point you currently? Speaker 1 Yeah, so I mean, I graduated from college, I had a normal job and that was around like Chris Moneymaker, ESPN poker thing. That's when that was going kind of crazy. And so everyone my age that was like a young guy was like starting to get into poker and like, because it was so easy to do it online, too. Speaker 2 Full Tilt was active. Speaker 1 Yeah, still still a thing. Yeah, before all the before it all came crashing down. Yeah. So I was doing that on the side and I was doing that like in addition to my normal job. I would do it at night. And it got to the point where I was making more doing that than I was at my job. Discovering Prediction Markets and Early Success So I was like, let's give it a go. Worst that can happen is I just quit and go back to my. Speaker 3 Job. How did you study poker back in the day? Yeah, I've always. Speaker 2 Been intrigued by this because there were the tools were not good in like mid aughts which is when this. Speaker 1 I mean, I wouldn't even say that I study poker. It's just like if you know math and you're take a little bit of risk, like you're going to beat the game. Speaker 2 Yeah, I in that era, I would go party all night, get home at 3:00 AM and dump on those sites. So I do know that it was very soft. I was unloading. Speaker 1 Yeah, and then people had multiple tables open, so you had a bunch of games going at once. Yeah, it. Speaker 2 Was an interesting era. OK, so that that got you into it, yes. When do prediction markets get on your radar? Speaker 1 Yeah. So I mean, I, you know, the thing with poker is there's a lot of downtime between hands. Like you're waiting for the other people to finish. And it's like, OK, this is boring. I've seen this 10 million times before. And so I was clicking around on the site. I think it was Bow Dog at the time, which I don't think exists. Speaker 2 Anymore. Speaker 1 No, it does. It does. OK, cool. Well, credit to them. Calvin Harris I think was the guy or something like that. Calvin Anyway, so I was clicking around on the site and I ended up like, I first started like sports, like 3 bucks, I'm gonna bet on the Knicks or whatever. And then I scrolled down and I was like, OK, you can bet on the Oscars. Like that's a thing. Like, I watched the Oscars like I'm like. Speaker 2 50 bucks at the. Speaker 1 Time on my first bet was 10 bucks on I think Crash to win Best Picture, which was very controversial, but it was like 8 to 1 odds. And I won like 80 bucks. And I was like, I'm a genius, like I'm gonna do this. And so. And then I started to look into it and I figured out that there was like a site like purely devoted to it. It's called Intrade. It doesn't exist anymore. But yeah. And I deposited money and started from there. I think my first was 200 bucks, yeah. Speaker 2 So what's the first year that prediction market trading is your primary source of revenue or 6 figure source of revenue? Like, when does it become like, oh, maybe I'm going to go all in here? Speaker 1 2008, yeah, because back then, yeah, OK, Yeah. There were really only two big events. It was the presidential election and then the Oscars. Like everything kind of revolved around that. Within prediction markets. There was not like if you go to Polymarket now you you can scroll for an hour the number of markets that they have. Speaker 3 On when would were you on predict? When did predicted even start? Speaker 1 So there's Intrade even before predicted. Yeah, predicted. It was like 2015. Oh, wow. Yeah. And when the guy was starting it, he was like, I was emailing him. I was like, oh, here's some tips on what Intrade would do. And yeah, it was kind. Speaker 2 Of wild wait, so if it's just Oscars in elections and that how are you? The Avatar Bet: Handicapping Oscar Odds That's how are how are you doing career defining volume? You know, like how, how is that setting off? Like, Oh, I'm I'm going to make this move. Speaker 1 Well, that's a great question because both of those are very slow moving. Yeah, that's right. Because, like, movies come out and then awards. Speaker 2 And election is a lot bigger than us. Speaker 1 Exactly. And then there's primaries and there's debates. And so these are both like very slow moving things and like what I was making a lot of money doing, I mean, not relative to then I was making a lot of money is like, OK, Romney goes up from 20 to 25, take some profit. I'm going to bet on Rick Perry now or whatever the case may be. So you you were doing a lot of like active trading based upon the latest news or the latest debate and then picking the VP was also a big one, so. Speaker 3 And trade was actually a prediction market like P2P. Yeah, exactly. OK, Yeah. Speaker 1 Yeah. And they were shut down in 2012. Got it. Yeah. Speaker 2 Polymarket and calci. When do you start in earnest use any of those? Yes, I was an. Speaker 1 Alpha user on Calci. Like even before the site really existed, I was on it like testing it out. Polly Market, I think I joined a few months. I was very skeptical of Polly Market because it's like crypto site and it's like, I don't know what the hell. Speaker 2 Is you're skeptical from like a counterparty risk everything everything, right? Speaker 1 Depositing with money. Who am I betting against? Yeah. I didn't know anything about it. So I was very, I wouldn't say nervous, but I was skeptical of it. And so I probably waited a couple months past when I heard about it to finally join up. But yeah. Speaker 2 And so when those launch, you have like infrastructure, be it models or just approaches to both elections and awards. No, no. But you had some ball knowledge, right? Speaker 1 Yeah, OK. Yes, yeah. Speaker 2 And so. Speaker 1 Experience. Speaker 2 Yeah. By the way, do you do any quantitative modeling now or is it you're just? Speaker 1 I've hired people to do it, but yeah, OK, nothing that I'm doing. Speaker 3 OK. Can you give like an example of a Oscar prediction? I bet you made any time that was like and walk me through your process? I'm just kind of curious because I'm never. Speaker 2 Without leaking too much, it's not about right. We're not being jerks. Speaker 1 I mean, the way that they divvy out the Oscars has changed over the years in response to controversy is where I won money. But so my, so obviously my first big win, big win was 80 bucks and I was like, OK, I'm launching that. But then my second really big win is when I was like, OK, I'm actually like doing this now. I'm like successful is when I bet on, I was betting against Avatar, the first Avatar, which was like a super popular movie. Everyone was loving it. And I think it was like 5050 to win the Oscars. And I was like, OK, there's 6000 Oscar voters. Like 3000 of these people are like older than 70. Like, they're not going to vote for this cartoon blue alien as the best picture of the year. And so the odds were 5050. And I bet pretty much everything I had that it was not going to win best. Speaker 3 Picture what? OK. When you do that, do you have like an idea of like a fair price or you're just like, yeah, what was your fair at that time? Speaker 1 Below 10, way below 10, maybe 5. Speaker 2 OK, so so truly a Kelly size approaching full bankroll. Speaker 1 Yeah, double Kelly. We have the house, Kelly. Whatever it was, I was all in. Speaker 2 Yeah. And that and and you're on platforms where you can actually sell yes, buy no or are you just buying other? Speaker 1 Yeah. So it was on exchanges. So it's me against someone else. Speaker 2 So you were a. Can you say how much your entire bankroll was at the? Speaker 1 Time, I mean, it's not going to be very impressive, but it was, it was 50,000. Speaker 2 OK. So you were only have 50,000 down on no? Speaker 1 Yes, I I would have. Speaker 2 Had like he's living in some alternate world where this has been like a liquid ecosystem for 20 years. Speaker 3 So the fact that you can, like I look at some of these markets now after all the hype and you can only get a few thousand, the fact you got 50,000 down like almost 2 decades ago, is it very impressive? Yeah, and very impressive. How long does it take you to accumulate that position? Speaker 1 Yeah, probably over the course of like 3 or 4 weeks. Speaker 3 OK, Yeah. Navigating Increased Difficulty in Prediction Markets So when? Speaker 2 We've talked about like learning how to win is the first thing, but then winning at scale is so much different. And even learning how to like, OK, I like knowing for instance, it's only worth it if I get 50 down. It takes 4 weeks to get 50 down. The price slippage is brutal. So like how big an angle do I need to even have it be worth my time? It's like a very small subset of what you actually went. Speaker 3 On now that is that brings you another question. So you obviously want to take a launcher position here. It takes you 4 weeks to get, you know, $50,000. It's not that liquid. How do you not like spook the market and like bring it from 50 to like 30 by by like what is your process there to execute? Speaker 1 Well, thankfully there was a ton of hype around Avatar, so it was not like anything. And they didn't even know that I was on, like, yeah, yeah. Speaker 3 Counterpart. No, no, it's not that. But it's just like if you were like putting in like. Speaker 2 Make the order book. Yeah. Who's gonna reload? Somebody's got to come around and reload, yeah. Speaker 1 Yeah. So mostly what I was doing is matching other people. Speaker 3 And you sure you weren't making you were taking there? Speaker 1 Yes, got it. Yeah, I wasn't trying to be like super aggressive because I that that is a fairpoint. Like if you're putting out a big order, like sometimes the order book crashes just seeing the big order. It like Spooks people. Yeah. So I was going pretty slowly. Speaker 3 Got it, Got it. Speaker 2 How how has that evolved now? Do you find what percentage of your efforts and and timing and your skills are trader? Do you feel like it's dedicated to OK, given some angle, some fair price with alpha, etcetera? I know how I want to attack the exchange, attack the order book, wait for the timing of the size to be appropriate, make just outside the spread versus crossing spread, etcetera, etcetera. Like, is that right now really important to your returns, or do you have an approach where you can kind of ignore all that and just attack? Speaker 1 Yeah. I mean, that's a really good question. So I think it really depends on how liquid the market is versus how much you want to bet. Like there are markets will all just show up and I'll be like, OK, this price is so far off. I'm just going to move the price $0.10 immediately and crash it down. But then there are times where it's like, OK, I'm going to try and get someone to bet into me, but I don't want to put too big of an offer up because then the price will go down by three cents or whatever. So yeah, it, it's very, it's very market dependent. It depends on what I think the price is worth. It depends on what I think. Like, you know, the impotent, like what events are going to happen between now and like let's say 2 days from now? Like is there going to be price movement for XYZ reason? So there's a lot of factors that go into that decision of what I'm going to do as far as like crossing the book or putting, putting up an offer or whatever. Speaker 2 Right now, I would say things have gotten better and better for a guy like you because of increasing liquidity, increasing platforms, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Do you feel still that each passing day your situation is better than the day before it? Or are the other participants getting stronger, the pricing getting stronger? Are you starting to feel some other winners nipping at your heels? Like where? Where are we on that trajectory? Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, it's a lot harder. And I would say, you know, it used to be the case where I was like, OK, I'm easily the best or one of the best. But now it's the case where I'm not necessarily feeling that in every single market. So I mean, what has happened with the prediction markets is previously it was like very small number of markets, but they would be very big. Now it's like a very wide-ranging number of markets and some of them can get really, really big. So it's yes, it's gotten a lot harder, it's gotten a lot more challenging and that's fun in some respects. But then by the same token, like it's the latitude of the markets has just gotten so like you can bet on pretty much any topic that you want to see. So something. Speaker 3 That's interesting to me is I've heard you speak that like you'll look at a market and then try to do some research. If you think based on the volume of thinking, get it done. But as you're saying it's getting harder, don't you run into adversarial selection at this point because like to so many markets and you would become like a Jack of all trades. Aren't you just asking to get crushed in in the end game? And isn't it better to stick with like a couple and be the end boss of those markets? And when we look at your portfolio, you have every market. Speaker 1 Yeah. I mean, yes, maybe that would be better, but it's not as fun. I mean, yeah, I'm trying. You know, part of it is like with prediction markets, especially on like news events, like you're trying to like solve a puzzle. Like if you're trying to figure out what the VP is, like they're gonna, they have some rubric that they're working with. You have to figure out what their rubric is. You have to get inside their head. Day Zero: Approaching Brand New Market Types So it's like it's like a problem solving. So that to me is like super appealing. So even if I was only able to bet like 500 bucks on this stupid thing, like I would still probably do it as a hobby in addition to my regular job because I just it appeals to me like being able to solve these. Speaker 2 Things Can you talk about the process of identifying a new market type like, oh, this is the first time I've thought about time person of the year or the first time I've thought about, you know, ChatGPT benchmarks or something. And when you decide, OK, I'm going to approach this, do you start by thinking about things that maybe you can reuse? Like do I have some tool that's already available? Do you always want to do it from scratch? Is the novelty part of the appeal? Like what is day 0 of attacking a brand new market type look like for you? Speaker 1 Yeah. So I mean, I would say first of all, I scale up my bets with how much research and how confident I am. So I would not be opposed to just putting in, you know, some brand new markets looks fun. I'll put in 200 bucks or 1000 bucks and not think too hard about it. And if I lose whatever, but like as the market gets more popular, you know, as volume is going up or as people are building bigger positions, then it's like, OK, I need to get more serious about this. So it could be the case that I don't research it. I'm working on 10 / 10 different other things. And I never increase my bet. But sometimes it's like, OK, I'm going to try and get serious about this. I'm going to research it, and then I'm going to increase my bet. So it's a little bit of both in terms of like willing to bet on anything regardless of whether I'm an expert on it. But then if I'm going to bet a lot of money, I'm not going to just gamble. Speaker 2 On it, learn more from studying and and thinking about a market and putting no money into it or just like going for it vibe trading and then feeling the actual pain of loss. Speaker 1 I mean, that's a good question. I I feel like researching it yeah is super important. But also, nothing crystallizes thoughts more than winning or. Speaker 2 Losing blood, Yeah. Speaker 1 Because it's like you still remember all these things. Speaker 3 Yeah, I feel like you're the embodiment of the meme of like the bell curve, like just no ball and you have the one end and but you're on the you're on the right tail. We're just like just no ball and bet and that's you. But I didn't want to ask, how does it like in sports? I know you don't do a lot of sports. Have you click or bet into a sharp bookmaker and the price moves back, you are in some serious trouble. You've probably got some adverse selection. Yeah, if you make a bet or a prediction or whatever you want to call it, and the price comes like you bet at $0.55 and then you can get it at 53 cents the next day or a week later. Are you like, yes, I can get more or are you like, damn it, I might be wrong here. What is what is your reaction? When Your Bet Spooks the Market: A Personal Story It really. Speaker 1 Depends. Like yeah, it depends on how how confident I am, how much research I've done. Sometimes I'll just instantly bet, other times they'll be like, OK, who made this? Who moved it back? Why'd they move it back? Maybe I'll talk to the person who moved it back and like, you know, try and get to get. Speaker 2 A level, yeah, I know who it is. It's my boy. He's dumb like. Speaker 1 Yeah. Speaker 2 We we know a few guys in sports who if it comes back, they're in full on, oh great, I get more mode. But it's rare. It's rare to feel that way and actually be right and not. Speaker 3 You know, it's, it's funny, I had an interaction with this because I was on the Domer, the opposite side of Domer and the, the gambling tax I'm getting and I was like, I thought I had and. Speaker 2 Whether or not the gambling tax is. Speaker 3 I thought it was good. I thought I had some good inside information. I knew some people in connected places. And then Dumber was like, yeah, you're fucked. Speaker 1 I mean, I think it's still alive. I think I'm 4. Speaker 3 Percent now and I bought it at like 65%. I'm pretty fucked. Speaker 1 Yeah, yeah. But yeah, I think, I think it was someone who was very overconfident on something. Yeah. They didn't have a lot of knowledge. Yeah. How bills get passed. Speaker 3 Yeah, yeah, that was me. Like I will own it. And it was fun to see that you were like, you were reaching out and you were like trying to figure out if I had some other angle, which I respect. Like, I like that a lot. Speaker 2 Yeah, in general, and I don't mean this to be a criticism of you, but you have done this before. I think sports people are often overconfident getting into politics where they have one or two pieces of information and they can't contextualize it. Like, like, oh, I know this person is like exploring Iran. It's like you don't understand all of these people put together right, these committees, because they're so vain and in love with themselves. Speaker 3 That was the problem. I had this piece of information that even Domer didn't have and I was like, this is this is it, I've got it. I'm going to get the market. And then I didn't realize that doesn't that doesn't really mean shit. The piece of information doesn't mean shit. And I learned that the hard way. Speaker 1 But I remember your offer because it was huge and it was on the book. Yeah. And I was like, talking with the people. I was like, should I match all of this? Should I match all of this? It took me like a couple hours and then I finally just. Speaker 3 I wish you didn't match it all. Speaker 1 Yeah, I apologize. Speaker 2 I think the big take away is if you find out a large offer as Chris's, you just fill and move on. There you go and you don't think about it. Exactly. Domer's Shift Away from Sports Prediction Markets Yeah, but it is interesting. Like I am curious because I did see it first hand. You did reach out to figure out the current party is there. If I had said something that made you think that you were wrong, what would you have done? Try to sell off or just accept the L or what would you do? Speaker 1 Yeah. I mean, it just really depends on what the price. Because the other thing about the market that you traded and this is really big on on prediction markets like on news events is it had to be done by the end of the year. So there's, there's a time decay there. So part of it was like, I think you were betting in like let's say August and they were about to take a few week break. So I was like, OK, I think there's gonna be even if this is gonna happen, I think it's gonna time decay. Speaker 3 Fair, fair, fair. Speaker 2 Yeah. So now, but now a perfect pricing system would understand that that break time is not real time. And it would be like be like half time in a football game or something, right. Where like you shouldn't say, oh, the dog is running out of time, right? But I I what you're kind of implying is that these are not mature pricing mechanisms yet, and they might be making naive updates. Speaker 1 Yeah. And, and the riskless price on prediction markets is pretty high, right. So if you think you deposit money in a bank account, you earn 3 1/2 percent. Well, on a prediction market, it's probably like closer to 10% that you can make just betting on riskless stuff. Speaker 3 I do I do have to ask because I I I bought it $0.65 how bad was my What was your fair price when you bought? How bad is my fuck up there? Speaker 1 All right, that's all. Speaker 3 Right. If you said like it's horrendous, it's really bad. No, no, no. If he he said he had like a roar of like 50 to 10 for the Avatar, I was like, if he thought it was five, I was going to be like, OK, that was really. Speaker 1 No, no, no. Speaker 3 40 I mean it's horrendous it's it's horrendous happy it's a horrendous price so. Speaker 2 So I gotta, and maybe you've said this before. Why aren't you touching? Speaker 3 Sports. Yeah, that is a good question. Speaker 1 Well, I'm OK. So for instance, like pricing a bill, like how many people know how to do that or how many people would be able to react fast enough like. Speaker 2 I can't even handicap that question. Speaker 1 Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah. So it's very, very qualitative and it requires a lot of knowledge and, you know, you can research it and there's a lot of fun. Whereas sports, I feel like, is pretty darn quantitative. And so, yeah, I mean, I will get involved with like if I see a quarterback injury really quick, sometimes I'll pop in and like. Speaker 2 Just fast feeding. Speaker 1 Stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like I'm not trying to 54% with 52% or anything like. Speaker 3 That What about in spots? We had a foster on the other day and you got Foster. Speaker 1 Yeah, mentioned market guy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Speaker 3 He's talked about this where it's just like an example he had was like the spread was 17 1/2 and the team is kneeling showing that they're not going to score. And it's it's a very slow feat. Or, you know, the example I gave you was like hockey's and goalie polls. Like that's a very qualitative thing. Like no one knows the true price of a goalie poll. But like, I do know if they pull a 5 minutes compared to two minutes, you're much likely to be. Do you do anything in that at all or no? Speaker 1 In terms of like. Building a Team to Scale Prediction Market Trading Like like get in the streets battle and prediction markets there. Speaker 1 In sports. Speaker 3 Or in sports. Speaker 1 Yeah, no, not really. Although early on I was making a lot of money live trading sports like 2 late the late 2000s, 2008, 2009, 2010. There was a World Cup at some point, maybe 2000. Speaker 2 6 Taking advantage of like inefficiencies and stuff like that, yeah. Speaker 1 I don't know what was going on with the feed that I was betting against, but I was in the in the US at the time and I took off from work and I watched the World Cup and I was like 30 seconds ahead of the market maker. Yeah, like for every goal. And so it was like Columbia could score. And then I was like, OK, like being called back. OK, let me bet 2000 bucks. And that just happened for like days. So I was like OK, I need to. Speaker 2 Like this is the early early days of online sports betting. Speaker 1 And then you could also like. Speaker 2 This was literally places that were switching from phone banks, so you're just. Speaker 3 Court siding, but just like their feet is just like unbelievably. Speaker 1 Horrible. Yeah, I mean that that that was a bad example. But like, no, no, it's fine. It's getting using the radio to get ahead. That was I think I got that still. Speaker 2 Is an edge actually just to well I say I haven't done this but like AM radio broadcast in cities are are basically 0 decay like it it's true like physical matter stuff. So if if court siding in the stadium works, AM radio for baseball etcetera also basically works. So you can only get basically one station in any given location. But yeah. Speaker 1 The only time I've been banned by a sports book, I was using the radio to that Yankee games live and they were like, no, we don't need you. Speaker 3 Yeah. Speaker 2 Don't blame. That's the only time. Yeah, that was. Speaker 1 Bo dog never cut you off, That was Bo. Speaker 2 Dog, that's how you got cut off from Bo. Dog. Yeah, well, you got a second bite at the apple with Bovada. Speaker 1 Yes, yeah, yeah. Speaker 2 I want to ask you about, you said I'm going to ask you about scaling, OK. You said you've hired people to build some models for you. Do you have any full time employees or is that? Speaker 1 All not yet. OK, Yeah. Speaker 2 Is that the plan? Speaker 1 We'll see. OK. Speaker 2 Like in sports, you know, there's, there's true like qualitative ball knowledge guys who that you know, just things like I grind every press conference, every beat reporter, etcetera, etcetera, who may just apply that knowledge to a market that they assume is otherwise efficient. Or they often get to the stage where they say, you know, I want somebody in my team who can model these games and they don't necessarily have to be the greatest modeler in the world, but just so I know if my piece of information appears to be pricing or not. And then the modeling people, often, you know, they're, they're able to, you know, trade on exchanges or bet, but the better you are, like we talked about at getting the money down quietly and efficiently and etcetera, the, the, the better your turns are. So they often partner with somebody who's called a mover or, you know, some kind of group that is in charge of handling all that. And and so there's a natural way that you can only get so big in sports before you really need to start building a team. So there's a lot of things that don't happen. Like those groups basically never raise outside capital. Yeah. Like, have you ever heard of them? Like just raising funds to never because you're so the the margins plummet with every marginal dollar wagered, right. So it's so important to source. It's so. Speaker 3 Funny, when I was like more actively trading, like I had people like, oh, you do success, Do you want to invest it? I'd be like, no, it's actually negative to take your money. So I'm. Yeah. Speaker 2 And I'll probably repeat parts of this question, but I, I'm wondering because I think you're kind of at the, the limit, like the literal mathematical limit of what one person can achieve in prediction markets right now, more or less. What do you think the the next hires for you would be or what the team would build, build out would look like? What do you think in general will become the consensus way people form prediction market syndicates or or whatever? And do you think we will see VC funding for these groups or will they raise funds like a hedge fund like put 2 and 20 fees? Or will it be like sports where it's always like they're sourcing their own capital? Like, do you have any kind of view of where all that stuff is going? Prediction Markets' Edge Over Traditional Financial Instruments I mean, it really depends how much because, you know, prediction markets are starting to blend in the finance like what what's the Fed going to do? And so the degree to which that happens will probably dictate like how much money is involved and like because obviously they need to be big enough for something like a hedge fund to spin up or something like that. Whereas now it's like, as it exists currently, not not imagining any, any future time, you probably would want to form people like using your own money, right? And, and just kind of keep it in house. And, and, and the way that I would build a team is probably find people with different specialties, right? Cuz like my specialties would not be analyzing Election Day results, right? I'm not, I'm not building models. I'm not very good at that. So I, I would want someone doing that. For instance, you know, I would want someone doing XYZ and ABC. And so it, it would be more around like forming like a, like a, a team of people who have different specialties. Speaker 2 What would be the Canary in the coal mine for you on the financialization of prediction markets where you would say, oh, jump trading or whoever is like is now going to be a real player like that? We've crossed the Rubicon on this. Is there anything that you're kind of looking out for that you say as long, as long as we're in this regime, guys like me are still going to be the big dogs and, and this is where I might start second guessing how long the edges are going to last. Speaker 1 Well, I mean, it's a good question because I feel like just because money is coming in and maybe it's very smart money, doesn't mean that I would be any worse. It's not like they have some super secrets that they're about to deploy. Obviously they may have different sources or whatever, but like, I wouldn't be like skeptical about that #1 #2 like, you mean like Canary in the coal mine in terms of like. Speaker 2 Just signals, signals that maybe the the in, in 12 months, the big winner in this field is going to be operating the level that I just can't compete with. Speaker 1 Gotcha. Yeah. I mean, we're, I think, I think we're really approaching that point because like, yeah, like especially have you seen like the liquidity on the Fed markets like it's. Speaker 3 Like hundreds of millions of dollars. Part of that, OK, part of the problem with the Fed markets is like you can just use like the the yield curve and like they're easy to price and they're easy to price like and that what. Speaker 1 No, I mean, so, I mean, so there is a market already. So it's a CME and they they have Fed fund futures. Now, if you go back over the past few years and you look at how accurate the CME market is versus how accurate prediction markets are, prediction markets are more accurate, period. Speaker 3 Interesting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Speaker 1 And like CME is slow moving and it and it doesn't react as fast and, and sometimes the reactions are wrong. So I feel like prediction markets have a huge, like obviously those will probably change, but I, I do feel like prediction markets are ahead right now and I feel like the money is more likely to come to prediction markets rather than using some antiquated CME, which is very hard to trade. Speaker 2 You think, do you think there are different parties who are trading on both? Speaker 1 Yes, yeah, for sure. Speaker 2 That's strange, yeah. Speaker 3 Wow, who? Speaker 2 Who do you think is the institutional or who's who is the player that is making the prediction market so efficient on those markets? Speaker 1 Well, I, I think it's mostly people like me now. I yeah, now on Kaushi, they have like Sig who they're actually not that good at pricing fed stuff, but like they're probably going to get a lot better. So someone like Sig would be coming in, they would be hiring people to react very, very quickly to things. But like, I feel like prediction market players are much better at digesting my new pieces of information and converting it into price changes, and they can do it very quickly. Speaker 3 Yeah. So this doesn't make any sense to me because like makes. Speaker 2 Perfect sense to me. Speaker 3 No, no, no. Speaker 2 I'll let you figure it out, OK? Speaker 3 You because like when they when you trade like swaps or stuff over the counter that's getting priced in to like what if what the percent chance that there's a cut it is and you're talking about like funds that are dealing in like hundreds of millions of millions of dollars and you're saying that's less efficient than people betting thousands of dollars. I just. Speaker 1 I mean, people are betting 10s of hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars on prediction markets now. But I mean, yeah, to your point, the scale is different. Yeah. But you know, the thing about prediction markets also is you're betting on the exact thing, whereas a lot of markets on like Fed adjacent in financial world, those are kind of proxies, right? Or they're doing different things or they're so marginal inaccuracies. Speaker 2 Just kind of get eaten up by transaction costs and then you don't have to be that good. Speaker 1 To some extent, yeah. Whereas whereas you know a prediction market is trying to trade the exact, trying to forecast the exact percentage chance that there's going to be a cut. Speaker 3 In this meeting. Speaker 2 You know, what it kind of reminds me of is how like in NFL, for instance, the the end bosses of the NFL who have been around a long time were raised on spreads and totals because that's all you could bet for a while and then it was all you can get down money on. And many of them are very good at predicting rosters and and snap counts and things in so far as it affects all that stuff. And when player props came out, they take no interest because it's too small ball for them. And then you have a new generation of people who solve for player props because $500 is a lot to them. And over time, they kind of do start getting better at it than the guys who are betting 50A game because, you know, there's just a new wave Now. Look, I'm making the case. I'm not saying that this is actually true, but. Speaker 3 I'm just, it's hard for me to believe like the size is so much more. Like I remember, like I, I used to work at a family office. They had billions under under assets. And when Trump was going with Kamala, we were trying to figure out the odds that Trump was back testing when not not back testing by pulling out. Like, OK, we know if Trump's elected, the bank sectors are going to boom and some other sectors are going to bust if Kamala is up. And how much of the price change since this and how much of that is baked into other things we're trying to pull pull that data in. And yes, there's also a market that we did, we did look at the, you know, polymarket hours because it had significant volume, but I don't think we really cared that much about it. And I would have guessed that if we actually came to a real number that ours would have been more accurate. Or but like, maybe I'm just arrogantly thinking that like I don't know if you understand what I'm. Speaker 1 Saying like I just, I just don't. How Prediction Market Traders Outsmarted Financial Markets Understand. And we had like we had like so much capital to deploy. I was just, I just don't know how you could think that we were doing a shittier job. You know what I mean? Like. Speaker 1 Well, you're just gonna have to start betting and see. Speaker 3 How it goes? That's fair. Yeah, that's fair. Speaker 2 That is the main take away. Yeah, right. That's fair if you really think it's that bad, but. Speaker 3 Go act on it. But we were, yeah, you were in terms of like we're deploying in the financial markets. Speaker 1 Right. No, I, no, I understand that. And, and I think, you know, what may start happening and something that I'm looking into is like prediction market traders starting to trade financial markets because we've noticed that there's sometimes there's a delay, sometimes they're pretty slow, sometimes they're really bad at pricing stuff. Like someone I know who's really, really smart, but like was looking at all the signs. It was like, OK, I think Israel and Iran is about to flare up and he bet a ton of money on oil and he was like way ahead of the oil traders. Like we do this 24/7. Speaker 2 And there's got to be some stat arm spots too, yeah? Speaker 1 So it's like, you know, you can pick your spots, you can find, OK, I think we have an advantage here versus the oil traders. We're looking at totally different things. So I think, you know, there's a possibility there where prediction market traders are finding more efficiencies, finding them faster and reacting faster and that can get ahead of the people who. Speaker 2 I get the interesting place to it. The thing about statistical arbitrage too is that it's, it's like free money. It's arbitrage, it's free money, but it's very hard to identify and execute often time. So you you do have these lags where it's like, OK, we can see that these things that are extremely tightly correlated are drifting out of phase with one another. And and the player has not spun up who is every single time calculating which side is more likely to be right clicking both sides proportionally correctly and then realigning, which is something that happens like options equities markets, right? Which is like any time anything is trading out of sorts with how black Shoals or whatever, more or less as it should be, Somebody who's just running a constant bot to kind of hammer it into place. And that process is often where you do the discovery, you know, because sometimes it's the transfer market is right. Sometimes it's the PM is right. Certain regimes it's going to be 1 or the other, like, you know, volatility or news timing or whatever might affect all this. And somebody just has to solve for that piece of it and has to have a lot of faith that this size is going to be there long term for it to be worth their time. I don't know anybody working on this problem by the way, but. Speaker 1 So there's a couple of examples that come to mind of like prediction market traders being out of the market. And that was COVID when that was breaking out in China, it was like me and a bunch of other people were like, OK, this is about to hit the US probably a week before the stock market figured it out. And cuz we were betting on it. Cuz there's markets like, is there gonna be a case in the US? And it's like, OK, it's going up. We're figuring it out. We're mapping it out. And it's like a bunch of us shorted the S&P. We made some money doing that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I mean not like a fortune or anything, but like, you know, that's one example, the second example. Speaker 2 Oh, look, by the way, all of these things you could just get lucky over any over any size sample, just putting it out there. Yeah. Speaker 3 OK, to be fair, I'm just thinking about this like I want more examples. Speaker 2 Because people love the examples, we clip the examples and nobody listens to the rest of them. Speaker 1 Yeah, you know, responding to your comment, I've not had a losing month yet. So I mean. Speaker 2 Hey, look, we, we love having you here. I know you know what I'm saying. Speaker 1 Yeah, I'm just. Speaker 2 Continue with other terms you. Speaker 1 Guys have crushed. So the second time is when inflation was starting to creep up and it kind of surprised the Fed. And I think a lot of us were starting to figure out that inflation is about to hit. And we were betting on like inflation indices and stuff like that. And that was another point where he made a bunch of money. Oh, I just thought the third example, the dollar, we bet against the dollar thinking that Trump was about to unveil some tariffs and that was like probably a week or two before it happened and the dollar kind of crashed a little bit. We made some money on that. So to me, when I think about the financial markets, it's like to like that's an opportunity for prediction market traders to find their spots, right? We're not going to just be amazing and everything, but just pick your spots and find some. Speaker 3 Opportunity and to be fair, I was just thinking about this further your point. It's possible to if I told you that Company X smashed their earnings, that doesn't necessarily mean the stock price goes up because they guide differently. And a lot of the times, I guess with like my my presidential example, we bought stocks and and short of stocks based on what we thought was happening with the presidential election. But we might have been letting our like financial hats bias us where it's like we might be directionally correct on on something, but we're actually just waiting way too much on like a financial thing that like. So you're probably going to get pinpoint the true presidential odds better, but not price the stock price better if that makes if that makes sense. Speaker 1 Yeah, it makes a little bit of sense. The other thing that I was thinking about there is like to me, you can get into a really crowded trade where even if you win, you don't necessarily win any money, which is kind of like the appeal to me partially of prediction markets, right, right, OK. There's a set pay off. Like you can't really get into a crowded trade where it doesn't pay off if you're right. Speaker 2 You know what else I was thinking of that's kind of funny is so like our friend Audie does consulting for a part time living, right. I don't know who he's consulting for. He doesn't told me so I'm not doxing him. But the kind of company you might consult for in his position would be like a hedge fund or a family office or somebody who is AVC fund that is investing in prediction markets or in competitors or whatever. And so there's a world where you might say, you know, when you can't beat my old family office, They have billions of dollars in capital. What do they do with Emily? Will they hire the best consultants? Well, who are the best consultants? Well, there are people on production markets. So that's why you can't beat them. Like at some point it does just boil down to people, right? Like how there's some man or woman who knows a lot, has worked really hard on this and has a good opinion and puts their money. But it is true that that person tends to win, be allocated more capital, and so capital and talent are very closely linked over the long term always. Speaker 3 What has biased me so much in this exam? The Pope vs. AI: A High-Stakes Prediction Market Bet Why I think like the offices and not only from working there, but I remember like first couple weeks I worked there, I talked to the analysts, the covered flutter and I'm like, I know more than like probably anyone on the street about their how they how they hold, what their whole percentage is going to be, how they make money, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Let me like look at your model, what you're going through. And he just explained it all and he encompassed everything that I would have given him and. Speaker 2 It's cool when it happens. Speaker 3 And I'm like, I can't even add any value like you don't even this has never, this guy has never placed a sports bet in his life. Doesn't know how the trading team works. And he encompassed everything that I would have done. And I'm like, and then I hear like some prediction market. Oh yeah, I know more than you guys. And that's why I'm like, come on. Like you have to be, you have to be joking me. So that's that's where my bias kind of comes from and and situations like that. Speaker 1 I would say in response to that, sometimes you can be too close to it and if you're too familiar with it and very surprising things can kind of catch you by surprise. So that's why like, for instance, stuff like COVID where it's like people are people are very dismissive of it. They're like, OK, yeah, maybe it'll come to the US, but it's not going to do anything. Or like inflation, like, OK, maybe a bit like you can figure out that, OK, if this hits and it's really big, you can make a lot of money. Like, and people kind of take for granted. One thing that people take for granted is that things are going to stay the same, and especially if. Speaker 2 Nothing ever happens. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, exactly. Speaker 1 Now you can take advantage of that the other way by betting against things happening. But yeah if if you can find some low probability like Black Swan event like you can literally retire off of. Speaker 2 It I we, I had a Co worker at Bloomberg who is in Wuhan like in January, February, went in January and then couldn't get out because of lock downs. And he was like in chat with us and so we we were stocking up on supplies and stuff in my house and I was talk friends thought I'd lost my mind like I was speaking like AQ Anon insane person when nothing had happened. So, but there was this like and also I remember that the US stock market actually got hit probably like the. The crash, so to speak, happened maybe 3 weeks before anybody stopped going to work or anything is out of your rec. It was like February, you saw stock market impact, March was when like social impact was. And the stock market kind of didn't get hurt anymore in March was my recollection. And then kind of slowly crawled back over the course of the year because everybody just piled into like remote type stocks anyway, like Peloton ripped and stuff like that. Yeah, so. Speaker 3 I do it sounds like you really prefer betting on like clear yes, no, and not a lot of derivatives for the for the most important. And when I when I ask if you don't, we, we can cut this if you don't want, but you're clearly taking a position right now looking at portfolio on like the person of the year being something AI related. But like you're taking you're you're making a lot of trades based on the derivatives of of that. Like are you thinking that you might be like, are you pricing every unique AI like Jensen type of thing itself where you're just like I'm directionally right here and I'm going to be betting a bunch of derivatives or how do you approach something like that? Speaker 1 Gotcha. So it probably shows up as me having a lot of AI here just because I'm betting so much against the. Speaker 2 Pope, Yeah, he's no being got it, yeah. Speaker 1 I I have half a million on the Pope. Speaker 2 OK. Speaker 1 Got a person here which is probably too much but maybe cut that for my family members but. Speaker 2 They're all right. They're used to it, yeah. Speaker 1 But yeah, so, so I do think it's going to be something AI or a adjacent. Speaker 3 Got it. Got. Speaker 1 It how I would handicap that from there. That's really tough because it's like I think literally one person at a time. That's his job. So how do you figure out? And I've tried to talk people to people near him and I'm like asking them like kind of questions around the topic and nobody will really answer me. So it's just kind of like a thing that's pretty zipped up. It's hard to handicap. Speaker 2 Why? Why are you so short on the Pope? I know you have a lot doubts like. Speaker 1 No, no, no, no. It's by the way in. Speaker 2 Sports, it's like very dangerous. Speaker 3 Yeah, yeah, I know. Speaker 2 About this but I feel like it's different. Speaker 1 Standards. No, no, no, it's all good. I don't feel like he's done much and like the the previous popes who have won, like they've actually like accomplished something. And and when Francis was named, he was named person of the year the the year he was elected. But it was kind of like Obama, where Obama was like immediately, like, OK, things are different now just by virtue of being named or elected. Whereas I don't think this Pope is really like a. Speaker 2 Transition. He's like going to miss the playoffs. He's just like, yeah. Speaker 1 And plus, like, you know, he could be named person of the year in the next 20 years or however long he's going to live. So I don't think there's any time pressure to name this. Understanding Oscar Voters and Market Manipulation Risks Guy, so I want to ask you, going back to your Avatar trade, I heard from another podcast you talk about your Sarah Palin VP trade, which was legendary, great, great work there. When you said you handicapped it at like 5 to 10% for the Avatar, how were you coming to that? Or if you could, like, were you going through and mean like, did you know? Speaker 2 Back up, back up. What? What was the what was the Sarah Palin trade? Those when you cap to 5 to 10%. Sorry. Speaker 3 Sorry, I'm saying Sarah Palin like I his story about Sarah Palin, which we don't have to talk about now because it's already public and everything like that. You just did a ton of work for that when you said when your avatar trade I'm. Speaker 2 Sorry, the avatar trade is 5. Speaker 3 Percent. You said it was 5 to 10% and you said 3000 of the 6000 or 7. Did you actually go in and like count like every single voter and like, Oh, you look up and be like, I know this person is like I'm not I I'm actually, I'm curious like how you arrived at that at that thing? Or was it just like the public's a moron here? Like let me let me fade him like I'm. Speaker 1 Curious. I mean, so I, I think there's a degree to which people kind of take things for granted. And I, I feel like now it's so much more known that the Oscars tended tended to be older and white. There was like an Oscar so white thing. There was like, oh, we have all these old people, we need to get some young blood in. But before that was kind of known, like if you were really like studying up on this and reading up on it, like you can figure it out very easily. So the exact number of members was known and I think like the average age was known. And then there's a lot of reporters for the Oscars, and they talk to voters all the time because they're going to events where voters are and they're chatting with them. And you can see like, OK, these people are all, you know, their movie credits are from the 60s and 70s or whatever. So you can kind of. And the other thing about the Oscars that made me extremely confident is that there are precursor awards. So Hollywood loves giving themselves award for everything. So like directing, editing, like every stupid thing that happens in the movie, there's an award for that. Speaker 2 Editing movies is so stupid. Speaker 1 Well, whatever. Yeah, so there's a lot of awards. And so you can kind of look at the precursors and be like, OK, well, like, got it. These people that are voting don't really like Avatar. Like maybe they went and paid money and brought their grandkids but. Speaker 2 They're not gonna. A lot of that is priced in out too, right? Like Screen Actors Guild stuff. Yeah. Speaker 1 I mean, the pricing is just so much more. Speaker 2 That actually kind of there was a last year in the NFL Lamar Jackson was the first team All American or sorry, all Pro All American quarterback for the AFC, which is extremely correlated with MVP, particularly if you know, it's not an NFC quarterback. And then Josh Allen won MVP and there was a period where Allen was getting reloaded over and over and over again on the prediction markets and slammed again and again and again. And it seems like like last a year ago awards markets were deep markets on prediction markets and now they are shallow. Like somebody's figured out you don't want to mess around quoting these things for too much size. I. Speaker 1 Think I think you should be, you should be a little cautious after the voting is over or after somebody can know the winner, especially if you're seeing. Speaker 3 Yeah, Well, I'm just the reason I was asking because I've heard some people for awards markets like they, they know all like there's only 50 voters or something like that for like MVP and like they'll go and. Speaker 2 A lot of times there's only a few that anybody listens to, like Zach Lowe and the NBA. People kind of wait to know. Speaker 3 What he's going to do, right? And it's like, well, some of them it's like, OK, this guy lives in Maryland. I'm going to say that he's more likely to vote for Lamar over Josh. And it's like this person reported on the Ravens like 8 years ago, OK. And they have like different percentages for everything. Like that's how they're coming to a number and like. Speaker 2 And you know the media too, They all put stuff out, right? Right. Every once in a while they just announce their vote in advance. Speaker 3 That's why I was asking about that. I was curious, like 6000 is a lot, but maybe you did all that work for like every single voter. Speaker 2 The other thing that's definitely happened in sports, sports and a few of the voters have admitted to this is they're all now way more aware of the odds and they're not confident people who feel comfortable going against the grain. Like it's a total hive mind and they really don't want to vote against heavy favorites. It's it's like a major impact. And I wonder if we're going to get to a point where people start manipulating, maybe not manipulate, but hammering markets, feeling like if I can push this thing past a point of no return, voters will feel like they simply have to vote this way or else they're going to look foolish. Like, I don't think that's that far off. Speaker 1 Right. Ensuring Integrity and Transparency in Prediction Markets And it's like where the tail wags the dog a little bit. Yeah, yeah. Speaker 2 Do you do that guess it's kind of like integrity concerns? Like do you have any integrity concerns with prediction markets that you feel like the the markets themselves should be taking concrete steps? Like I remember you had a great long detailed post about the Who's Alaska. Tom is the other guy's name. The the guy who's doing a a fast a water fast. Speaker 1 Yeah. Oh yeah, I. Speaker 2 Forgot that and just and how like disreputable the thing was from top to bottom. Do you feel like Polly and Cal, she should be stepping back from stuff like that? Speaker 1 Yeah, you can't let the market become more important than the event, right? So like, let's say, for instance, let's say there's a market on whether you're going to cough this afternoon, right? And there's like 10s of thousands of dollars. Bet on that. It's, it's so out of proportion. Like someone can just be like, OK, I'll give you 1000 bucks, can you cough? And it's like, yeah, I'll cough for 1000 bucks. Like the, the, the proportionality gets totally skewed. So you have to be really, really careful. So I think, you know, maybe the future of prediction markets, especially on like unimportant quote UN quote, unimportant things is lower limits and like more. Speaker 2 But you can't set limits right like they're. Speaker 1 Yeah, no. As of now, no. Speaker 3 But like liquidity providers like. Speaker 1 Well, I mean this is theoretical. A theoretical solution is that you institute limits on events which aren't super important so that you don't end. Speaker 2 Up well, OK. Does the CFTC appreciate that? Because I'd love to set limits on markets before I quote them well. Speaker 3 I don't know. I think the problem, the problem with that is there's always ways to circumvent. That's true. Like, yeah, you put $100 a limit and then I go to just every friend I know. Yes. Do you want to make 50 bucks, right. Bet 100 bucks here and yes, bam, we've just circumvented it. I think that would naturally happen If you tell me if you disagree is just for unimportant events. The liquidity is just way lower because like everyone's scared to do anything because the rigging is so real. Speaker 1 Right. But but prediction markets are peer-to-peer, so you can't control the liquidity. So like you can put up 1000 bucks or someone else could put. Speaker 3 Right. But I guess my point would be like if OK, something like the Fed market, yeah, I would be comfortable calling in and making like a three or four cent wide thing if I had like a good model and for hundreds of thousands of dollars because I'm like it's deep enough and there's going to get enough rec liquidity. If you said, I think the fair price for whether Henry will cough in the next predictive programming, like I'm not going to market make that for deep because like it's so manipulative like. Speaker 2 By the way, I wouldn't, I would never cough just to make it easy. Speaker 3 You understand what you could have the best model but like if it can be like well. Speaker 2 This gets us to a question. Why was there depth on these markets in the 1st place? Yes. Why is somebody showing up and quoting something so toxic today? Speaker 1 OK, because it's fun. It's degenerate people are paying attention to. Speaker 2 It market making people are doing that for. Speaker 1 No, but I mean like for instance, the guy who was in the desert. Speaker 2 Fast thing or whatever. Yeah, I can understand taking it for fun. I can't understand quoting both sides for fun. Speaker 1 Well, but that's what people were doing. They were really putting up offers or. Speaker 2 I was I was assuming that the reason you see offers there is because there are rebates that make it worthwhile. Speaker 1 Maybe, yeah, maybe that helped, like, facilitate it, But no, people were getting very, very into it. And then the controversy itself, sometimes on prediction, Americans draws in people, right? So if people think there's going to be a big rule fight, that's like, you know, moth to a flame. Speaker 2 I know people certainly think they have angles on rules, right? Like there might have been somebody who'd said I think the settlement here is gonna bias towards yes or no, and people aren't reading the fine print and so that's a reason to get involved. Yeah, but that also feels like something you don't want to be the long term, right? Speaker 1 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So there's skeevy things that can happen. You just gotta be. You just kind of navigate them. Speaker 2 What do you see as the future of like canonical settlement stuff? Because I know you've written about criticism of the UMAI Wouldn't say you're like, I think you're very I think all these things are very fair. And you whenever it's like thorny, you write very detailed threads. But but yeah, go ahead. Speaker 1 Yeah, I mean, and, and then even as fair as I can be, usually the other side of the equation has at least some point. So it's hard to be like, you know, things are black and white. But one thing that they don't do that they really should do is like keep track of all these decisions that they make. Because one of the problems with these people, with the people that are deciding these markets is that there's no like continuity. There's no like, you know, OK, there's they don't stick to precedence Like so there's no one keeping track. Like, OK, two years ago we were faced with this exact same problem and we did XYZ. And now it's like, OK, that person no longer works at the company. They have someone different who's 10 years younger. He has totally different view and he does ABC. And then somebody who has bet on the same market twice is like, well, hold on a second. Like this doesn't make any sense. Like you expired it this way and then you expired it this way. So there's a. Speaker 2 Lenski suit was kind of like this, right where it's a little bit that's probably a suit, but he's worn that jacket before and it's settled. No right. So how can you settle it? Yes, even though the pants kind of match better today. Speaker 1 Right, right. But then. Speaker 2 That's a tough one, though. Speaker 1 Yes, yes, exactly. Yes. And it's like kind of in the eye of the beholder. And some of these things are, like I said, like qualitative and like there's no like determinate answer. And so it can be very, very hard to navigate. But one thing that one thing that they can definitely do is keep track of things and write stuff down and make like a quasi like rule book. Like these are the things we're going to try and figure out. Because, you know, if you imagine a new user to a prediction market, right, and you imagine he's bet on the, the suit market, he has no idea that they've expired some previous ones. He doesn't know his precedence. He doesn't know who, he doesn't even know who decides whether it counts as a suit or not. This person has just signed up and they just want to bet on whether this guy's wearing a suit or not. So there's not much visibility. It's very opaque. The Future Vision for Prediction Markets and Domer's Role So there it just needs to be a lot more transparency, especially with like New Year's and stuff. Speaker 2 Platforms can become beholden to these traditions in a way to like for instance, we we have tennis markets that we avoid everything on on mid match retirements, which for a long, long time was the standard everywhere and is starting to shift and saying that somebody who's relatively new to sports like oh, this is how it's always been done means nothing yeah it's like oh we we should probably change all this because as much as it is the way of the world, it's probably doesn't have to be that way and you can lose a lot of market share by just kind of being lazy about it. I say that we haven't changed any of it. Yeah, probably by the next major we'll have it our goals modified, but. Speaker 3 I don't wanna ask two last questions for you. What is the future of Domer and what do you think the future of prediction markets are? Speaker 1 Yeah. So, I mean, I think the future of prediction markets is probably they're gonna continue to get more widespread. So more topics, probably a focus on like important things and then one question is whether it starts to filter. Speaker 3 Is like what Joe Buck will say in the next announcement, not important? Speaker 1 Yeah. Speaker 2 Right. Are you bullish on the actual businesses themselves or is that something you don't think about? Speaker 1 I mean, so I've been bullish on prediction. I've been bullets on like peer-to-peer markets for a long time. Like Betfair I think is great. I think one of their failures is like marketing and they kind of focus on like non recreational people. And so it's very hard to, and that's one thing that prediction markets are trying to solve is like making the interface, cuz obviously the core of the product is an order book and that's not very friendly to someone that has just showed up off the street. So you have to kind of make the UI something that's very conducive and very easy to understand. So it's kind of like hiding the complexity of the market a little bit. So, yeah, I'm, I'm very bullish on prediction markets as like an operating system for how we're going to be betting on this stuff. I, I do think it's better than, you know, experts, right? Because if you think about, let's say we're trying to figure out whether there's going to be a recession, right? And 20 years ago, you'd get a bunch of economists on TV or you maybe you get a business leader and you're like, OK, what are the odds? And maybe one guy says 20 and another guy says 70. You have no idea what to believe. So if you put up a market on it, then people are studying statistics like like we, we've grounded this in some variable and then there's accountability. So I do think prediction markets are a huge upgrade over the alternative, which is experts. And it's something that people can kind of like consult on and be like, OK, like maybe there might be a recession this year, so maybe I'm gonna hold off on buying a house or whatever. So I think the markets are very important and they're gonna get bigger and more widespread. And the more important markets are gonna get even bigger in terms of liquidity and trading. And then as far as me. So I think I would love to, first of all, I'm very content doing what I'm doing now. I'm have a ton of fun. It's like a blast. Every day is different, which is really, really cool as a pixel market trader cuz you never know what market you're gonna be trading today. But if I were to do it far more seriously, I'd want to, going back to what I said, build a team of people who are experts in certain areas and kind of deploy a lot of money and, and being able to work together. Because one thing about prediction markets is it's, you know, person versus person PvP, right? And so it's like a bunch of people trying to shoot each other all the time. Whereas if you can get a team and you can build a bunch of guns yourself, you're going to be better off than trying to go through the wilderness on your own. So yeah. Speaker 3 Makes sense, yeah. Speaker 2 All right. No, you what? You asked the big closing questions. Speaker 1 That's no. Feel free to ask us no. Speaker 2 We're good, Domer. Thank you for coming by. Yeah, great. Really appreciate it. I appreciate it. You got a ordered treat to have you. All right, that's it.