Employment Traits of Gen Z, 'Juicy' Bond Yields, Americans Quit Bowling

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Join us each week for a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life on personal finance, on retirement, and wealth management. We will explore how people are earning investing and building wealth. We are live Fridays at Noon Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Television. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. There is good thing we're all in it for the long term. What's different here folks is, you know, we all follow the blur. Scarlett and I do that, but then Romaine's really channeled it. We're going to talk about his perspective. Well, he talks a lot of CEOs and he's got good insight into how some of these consumer-facing companies are managing through this period. Romaine Bostic on a first-word basis with Jaylen Brunson about what shoe he's going to wear next year for Ford. I call him Jay. Doug, great, let's get this started. David Gerrard, we're in the election season. You got Realme Brownstein on here. Bloomberg this weekend. What's your first question around about the cacophony we're living? Why is the President going to Texas and Oklahoma and Alabama? Why is the Vice President going to Florida? What does it say about their strategy, Republican strategy going forward? We were promised by the President a few months ago. Right. Everything's up for grabs. It's going to crisscross the nation. He is sticking firmly to these red states. The personal finance of 50 states is flat on their back. I did Duluth, Minnesota today. Forget about that. Why aren't they in Iowa or the affordability issue? Grassley, at what? 90 years old? 90 years old? Probably, yes, in his 90s. Look, I think in states where now we're seeing racist and credibly close, you have candidates who might not feel so easy with the President going there because of what's been happening in the economy more broadly. And I was struck by what Tom Tillis of North Carolina, my home state said. He of course, retiring from the Senate. This is a time when these lawmakers who are for re-election are focusing on their own states. They don't want to have the burden of the President of these districts. Is this where he mentions Duke is for no? Yeah, I think it is. I will not talk about UNC football on principle on show. Let's talk about the economy, though, because we're main. We got some jobs numbers today. We also got consumer confidence this week that shows people feel really lousy, even though there is job growth. And we have solid PMI numbers which show that the economies are well. It's kind of hard to get a handle of where things are. It's hard to get a handle. I think someone said it best to me. They said, right now you have a consumer. That is behaving a lot better than what he or she actually feels. And I guess that's put in the short term to long term. It raises a lot of questions about all re-reaching a breaking point. And to your point, David, about the midterm elections. This is something that has come up time and time again on the campaign trail. It doesn't seem like a lot of people in Washington are paying a lot of attention to it. But I can tell you this right now, a lot of the retailers and the apparel makers and the companies that are selling goods and services. They are paying attention to it. That's all you hear on the conference call these days. And Nikki, you see that too. With companies like David Busters and Lucky Strike, they're hitting some serious economic headwinds. Yeah, we're seeing real consumer fatigue. And we know when people's finances are stressed, the first thing to go is that they're going to chop out is that discretionary spending and a fun night out. The other thing that's happening is that places like Lucky Strike and David Busters aren't cheap anymore. You're looking at a couple hundred bucks for a night out. When I think all of us can remember the bowl of alley bee, you could have a good time for 20 bucks. You can have a good time for 20 bucks and dead. Between wages, between insurance costs, that's gone way up. So, remain, you have talked to the CEO of Nike a couple of times. Yeah. They have their own issues. Right now, their own execution issues. Ellie Hill inherited a bunch of problems. But they kind of really show some of the challenges that these consumer dependent, consumer facing companies are encountering. Yeah, and it's kind of one of the more ultimate discretionary names out there. And they've been struggling. A lot of idiosyncratic issues. But there are some broader macro issues there too. You know, I was looking a lot of the anecdotal fed data about where spending is. You're still seeing spending strong at value places, the big box stores, the Costco's of the world. Durable goods is just really just kind of starting in the circle to drain. But at the bottom of that stack was actually a paramount footwear. And it had done better at the start of the year, but you're starting to see a pullback. People are only mind the things that either that they absolutely need or things that are really unique and exciting. And there's not a whole lot in between. I'm looking this weekend, I mean, this is Keen Toby. She's got the Jalen Brunson, Nike's custom made, and I don't even know what they cost. You don't want it. And Nike, yeah, like in and in right now. I mean, does the name still matter to Nike, like the endorsement? Oh, yeah, it matters. Yesterday, when they released their earnings report, they also released the Caitlyn Carcline action. This is a huge deal. The most money that they backed for a woman athlete ever. And in fact, the amount of money they're spending on, this rivals what they would spend on some of their male athletes, they really see her as sort of being the potential focal point for the branding, the endorsement branding. Why is this so crated? Well, because they're not selling. Jordan is down, a sportswear is down. The only real bright spots, they had some sort of, and the Nike brand here in North America. China is just abysmal. That was down 22% in the most recent quarter. They're not selling anything over in Europe right now. This is a story right now where people have options. And for a lot of people, those options are not Nike. People have options before being selective with their spending. But David, if you listen to the president, there is no affordability crisis. There is no affordability challenged as far as he's concerned. He fixed whatever inflation problems existed. >> I just want to say, in the Gura House, we bought some subordinates. You know, it's sort of our part, too. >> Okay. >> That's a nice bottom line. But no, I think that's right. And so what we have from the president is this promise of this $5,000 dividend. This promise that come election day, the war is going to end, oil prices are going to come down. And I think there's frustration among the American people with having to hold onto that, is the best hope here that the president is offering. And I think there's just this talk about sentiment, a real disconnect. That was something that $5,000 check was kind of a throwaway line at this Republican convention in Dallas. It continues to have life. And I think lawmakers are having to deal with how do they answer their constituents who now expect this sort of thing. >> At the same time, this has been a little bit of a Republican talking point. It has a lot of truth. Americans are fairly rich. One of the things we're looking at in money is that later this year, they are going to have the Fed is going to release. It's survey of household consumer finances. And we are going to see how it is that people are managing to shop and spend even with everything they're facing. And I think we can't avoid the fact that people have retirement accounts. People have homes by a large. They are in a pretty good situation with their mortgages. It's what feels bad, is sometimes the discretionary stuff. >> You want it, Scar, please. >> No, and on top of that, you have AI kind of looming over everyone. I know that your team wrote something up about how there's a new report that shows AI may force 11 million workers into new jobs. >> It's a really big number from McKinsey and shows the extent of what we could be looking at in the next couple of years. And how our jobs are going to change, we don't know. It's really, I think that's one of the things that's helping people feel not so great, is that tell anyone there's big change coming, but we can't tell you how, but it's going to be kind of painful. And that adds up to some really dark consumer sentiment. Like we saw earlier this week. David mentioned the Carolinas, and for his birthday, what we need to understand is, this is like his second job. His real job is nailing a major pentatonic scale, and the mixellidian scale, with incredible ability here. David Gerrard playing fiddle a few weeks back. >> This is pretty much back. You're back. (laughing) (upbeat music) - I was unsure which video we had. That was a celebration during COVID. - Well, yeah. - Those are some skills. - So much for me. - No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. - Thank you so much for all of our guests today, Nikki Waller, David Gura, and Remain Bostic. Tom? - Well, I mean, there we are, coming up, we've got a really important discussion. This is Susie Welch, hugely anticipated. My essay of the year, last year, she's at NYU, and this will get some heat going in the room. This is a controversial moment with Susie Welch. Including her research on decision-making and how it applies to your money moves. This is Bloomberg Money. - Some people treat Chachy-P-T like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. Chachy-P-T work is a new way of working in Chachy-P-T that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful. Put Chachy-P-T to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chachy-P-T dot com by selecting work mode, available on plus and pro plans. - If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next, the next opportunity, the next investment, the next move. A storm damages a second home. A pipe bursts above a collection you spent decades building. An unexpected loss puts a growing business on pause. Those are the days no one sees coming. But for more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has been ready when they do. 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It's on wealth management. It's on retirement. Scarlet food. What a day the jobs report and then we had like, you know, British hydro, European hydrocarbons and all that. You also have the French bond crisis for anyone who's paying attention to what's going on in Europe. It's like serious stuff, I don't know. Absolutely. We welcome all of you. We're a little bit off topic on that and way off topic here was someone who's beyond important. Joining us now, Susie Welch, NYU Stern School Business Professor, which barely describes her impact. The book is 10, 10, 10, a life transforming idea and we'll talk about their path to academics and all that. I can give you the exact date here folks. September 24, 2025. I said, yeah, Susie Welch said is Gen Z. Unemployable and it's just real simple. It's a blistering essay in the Wall Street Journal about the kids. How damaged are the kids out of, we'll do this. This is the morning must read here. The money must read I should say. This is from the essay and it's just simple. The message is often met with a pushback that business needs to change. What has the focus on achievement gotten us but anxiety? Oh, what was me and who wants a life of scope with action and a decent paycheck with the world is already unstable. How damaged were the kids out of COVID? I don't know if I'd use the word damaged. I have to say, you know, I love Gen Z. I think that they were changed. Or maybe they were changed even before Gen Z but what the pandemic reinforced for them is that they did not want to postpone joy. They did not want to earn their happiness, which is actually a very ancient concept. If you go all the way back to the Stoics, the idea is that you work very hard and then you earn your gold watch and your relaxation and your retirement basically that you work very hard then you get to play hard. And I think what happened and what the research would show is that they came out of the pandemic and they said, we don't really like that arrangement. We would like not postpone joy. And look, maybe the reasons are the bottom can fall out at any time. Maybe there's no joy at the end of the working. So why would we buy something out of it? You started as a steam coming out of my ears scorching. Yeah, a little bit. And they've subscribed to Yolo in a very, very extreme way. Yes. What do old people like Tom, like me get wrong? Well, what do we get wrong about the skills that you need and how to build a career today for this cohort of Gen Zers who don't want to delay joy, who want to live life? I think that people from older generations have the form of array of values, which is they value achievement more and they have also this equation in their heads that you have to work to get your your period of pleasure. You know, I want to say maybe they're right, okay? I mean, I don't subscribe to it. I work all the time and I love working and I've always said that, but I would say that what if you are managing Gen Z and you cannot put your finger on why they are driving you crazy, but there are words for it and that is that their values are very different than yours. And either depending on how much power you have, how much hiring power you have, you can decide whether or not you want the Gen Z with that attitude or you can go get Gen Zers. Are there two groups? Because I got Eli, I'm Bloomberg Money, who works nothing under a 60-hour work, maybe even seven. He knows the King's English, he could do math. To me, there's two parts of Gen Z. There's a Gen Z that you and Mr. Welch, Jack Welch, knew and Scarlett grew up with and I grew up with and then there's this cohort you're talking about. But I think it's okay, so they're not everyone in Gen Z is the same, but if you actually look at the numbers, two percent of Gen Z have the values that we would typically subscribe to. Two? Two percent. So yeah, they exist and you know what happens is there's like a there's a cage match of organizations and individuals who are trying to hire that two percent and the rest have a different set of values. Their top value is self-care and well-being. Their second value is agency, which is like wanting to make all the decisions. They are very, very self-deterministic and then they would like voices. Their third value, which is authentic self-expression. This is how do you say this with a strength? Wait, my question here is starting to interrupt. My question is how do you how much the responsibility lies with schools? I mean, you have to have the knowledge that the skill set base in order to kind of move forward with these kinds of demands. Universities and professors don't appear to be equipping these young people with the right skill set. Their values are formed by the time they get to school. Okay, I mean, I don't think the professors all feel the same way about this. I don't think this is happening in school. Okay, schools have learned to cater to it because they're getting in students who have a certain set of values, but those students didn't arrive with totally different values and then have them change. I think it's happening a little earlier than that. And I want to just say, I have one little piece of data, which I think you're going to be lighting because I've just gotten this data recently. We went in and becoming labs, which is the lab that I work in. And we gave our test, the values bridge to 300 the top 300 executives at a large bank that shall remain nameless, except for to say it is an wildly successful, extremely large bank based in New York. Okay, so we gave the values bridge test to all their top 300 executives. Why? Because the CEO asked me to and we looked at their values. There was 91% value overlap with this group. That's unbelievable. 91% of them had the exact same values. Their top values were wildly different than the Gen Z people that they were managing. But what was fascinating is they didn't have Gen Z's top two top values agency and voice, self-determination, self-expression, those were down at number 14 and 15 for them. So they had risen up to the top. So we've got this very successful cohort of banking exactly. and they are managing people with radically different values. This is what's causing the attention. - Yeah, we wanted to ask you about the worst career advice you ever got. Not the best with the worst. And I know that something that drives you absolutely bananas is something that Steve Jobs used to tell everyone, which is follow your passion. - Yeah, hold it on here. Look, I think maybe you should, but maybe you shouldn't, because your passion, which is often really your interest is just one part. There's sort of a three-legged stool when you're gonna try to build a career that's sustainable. And what you're interested in, your passion is one leg of the stool, but you also have a set of values. Everyone has a set of values, but also you have aptitudes. Like, fine, follow your passion. If you're good at it, you know, like I, you know, I would be up there like with Beyonce if I was just following my passions. I would like to perform, but I'm terrible. I mean, terrible at it. So I mean, I think that what students want is like this wonderful answer. And I understand why people give this advice because if you're technically, first of all, it feels very good to say just follow your passion and everybody goes, yeah, I should just follow my passion. I would also say another piece of it is sometimes people don't know what their passions are. I mean, there's, we've got kind of a generational cohort who will say with dead situations, like, sometimes I want to, you know, be a veterinarian. - That's what I hear. - But then in the afternoon, I want to like, sort of tech company based on AI. It's like, well, you got to choose between those, I'm afraid. - So I'm gonna dovetail this all together with your claim at NYU. You had a father-in-law who is voice. You have a voice when you're a Boston and main railroad conductor. So Jack Welch's father was a conductor on a train a million years ago. - Yeah. - That heritage wasn't about a voice. It wasn't about all the stuff you've brilliantly studied. Here, what did you learn from Jack Welch about grinding through the investment day? - Well, I have to say, I've often thought about what Jack's values. If we had had the values bridge, I would have loved to know what his values were, but Jack actually believed in enjoying your work. I mean, I don't want people to take out what they find to be an enjoyable thing. But Jack believed in hard work. I mean, he was one of these people who was like very driven to, you know, we left our honeymoon early because we missed work so much. I mean, that was our shared personality type. And so I think that he believed in work and the term fun employment probably would have driven him just about as a crazy as it drives me. When my students say they're gonna have some fun employment, which is purposely not work to have fun. And I'm like, well, work is fun. So I think that he would have some thoughts. - So his aptitude was work, hard work. - His value was work. He certainly had the value of work, centrism. His aptitudes were too many to list. - All right, Susie, thank you so much for joining us. Susie, well, we were just getting started here with NYU Stern School of Business, author of many books, but really thought leadership here when it comes to career management and also decision making and everything that it tells. Coming up, we've got a conversation with Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo. Of course, we're gonna focus on personal finance retirement and wealth management. - Okay, you don't need to tell me to artist. - So, study. - So we have a methodology that I teach at work. - Some people treat Chachi-P-T like some kind of smart search engine and some use it to get work done. Chachi-P-T work is a new way of working in Chachi-P-T that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed and turn a goal into finished work. So all the source materials, briefs and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful. Put Chachi-P-T to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chachi-P-T.com by selecting work mode, available on plus and pro plans. - If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next. With deep expertise, coverage for businesses, homes, valuables and more, Cincinnati insurance works with independent agents who take the time to understand what matters to you. Find an independent agent at CINethian.com. (upbeat music) This is the Bloomberg Market Minute brought to you by Comcast Business. The markets faced plenty of challenges this year, rising energy costs, higher interest rates, pushback to massive artificial intelligence spending. Nadia Lovell is head of global equity strategy at UBS. - Ernest has been good and continues to be good. And while we might be past the peak in Ernest growth, we're not past the peak in Ernest level. - But others like Miller-Tayback strategist Matt Mailey say those challenges could eventually lead to a downturn. - Whenever we see a significant rise in bond yields like we have and a significant rise in all prices like we have, the stock market always, or pretty much always ignores it for a while. - And Wall Street may be starting to take notice. (upbeat music) - Let's bring in Torston's lock right now. He was chief economist at Apollo. - Torston's lock with us. And we are thrilled he's with us with an eclectic vision from Deutsche Bank over to Apollo. I've got to say, Torston, I look at this in a thing that ended the weekend. In terms of personal finance, retirement, and wealth management is we have a top line boom economy GDP like we've never had discussed it. It's like after Napoleon's war. It's after 1947 World War II. This boom nominal GDP is extraordinary. - Yeah, because we have very, very strong tailways of growth coming from the AI spending boom. We also tailways coming from the one big beautiful bill. And we also have some tailways coming from the home showing of production, the manufacturing sector is actually doing really well. And what's most noteworthy is also that the weekly data for business formation is telling you that the number of new businesses that created every week is at the highest level ever in US history. We've never had just a dynamic economy as we're having at the moment because people can use AI to start a new business. - Torston, bring this over to the retirement plans where everybody's in four index funds trying to get it. Done, if we have a roaring economy as Edger Dunning talks about are we at risk with our retirement? - Well, this is what's really important about this discussion is something you and I have talked about for years. Because now we have a huge capital need for financing AI. And in the meantime, we also have a huge capital need also for financing the government. So we went from a savings glut from 2010 to 2020 where there was a significant amount of savings from China, from Savers, from people who have it for 1K. But today there are so many things to invest in. You can decide to invest in high government bond rates. You can also decide to invest in AI. The number of projects that need capital is very significant and that's the reason why interest rates keep going up because there's just a shortage of capital relative to the savings glut that we had for many years before the pandemic. - Let me go back to the economy because as strong as the numbers indicate, it doesn't feel like it for a lot of people. The consumer facing part of the economy feels like it's a completely different story than what's going on in AI and all the cat-backs and all the build up of the AI infrastructure. - Absolutely, and that's because the economy's bifurcated into the very strong AI spending boom. And on the other side, you have the interest rates sensitive parts of the economy name your housing and autos and housing mortgage rates during the pandemic with 2.7. Now mortgage rates are 7.2. In other words, it's become unaffordable to buy a house. And if you add that to affordability issues with healthcare, with education, all the prices, that's why consumer confidence continues to do so. - The person within wealth management, within just basic wealth management, project out one year, three years, five years out of how we bring down this odd boom economy. Where will the damage be? That's what Bloomberg money people want to know. - Absolutely, and the key conclusion is that interest rates are going to stay higher for longer because inflation is higher for longer. And from a 60-40 portfolio perspective, that means that we now suddenly need to think more about fixed income. Because the yield you can get in fixed income is actually really, really juicy. If you go back and look at history. And if that's juicy, that means that both in rates, but also in high quality credit, you can get some very high levels of yields that you have not been able to get literally for decades. - Scarlet, juicy is CFA level four. (laughing) - Yeah, it's a very technical term. I mean, you don't even have to go into fixed income. You could just keep money and cash and do pretty well given where deposit rates are. And this is something that you have written about. This idea that people who keep their money and cash with the use of AI, that becomes a whole different picture here because AI can really change behavior in a way that the industry, the financial industry is not quite prepared for. - Yeah, because we've had a lot of conversations in the last few weeks about mues, and what we're mues to choose. - The meta. you have the meta app and your personal assistant that suddenly can make your life easier in a number of different ways and one worry of course you can have is that if that makes your life easier by swiping out cash that you have in your checking account where interest rates are 0.01 if you can swipe that into another account while I walk into Whole Foods suddenly my money go into my account when I walk out and money goes out. Oh hey wise guy we don't do that. So well the question is this is why we have about to figure out how many people are giving the data to Muse and to the personal. You got to be kidding I think it's Kara Swisher said it. You got to be kidding me you're gonna give Zuckerberg and that crew your personal financial data. It's already possible today in many different ways to take your money in and out your checking account. There's some issues sometimes it takes a day sometimes it takes a little bit less time but the issue is that then as a day that if you can swipe your money out of the checking account you can have a checking account elsewhere where of course you also get a high yield so I do think that this is the way we're moving that may not be happening with Muse and the personal assistance from AI but it's certainly that way the things are moving also of course with blockchain technology making these things also a lot easier. I think we can yeah yeah for sure well AI has made it so that price shopping great shopping and switching is now frictionless and that means that I feel like that's gonna introduce a lot more volatility what the number that you see today may not last for very long. Well that's true and that's also why of course the risk ultimately becomes if money moves around much quicker and if suddenly subscriptions are canceled and and subscribe to much quicker of course you could have a more volatile economy so that's why AI once again can be disruptive and it can be disruptive of course in the normal consumer economy but it could also be disruption of course in personal finances. I got to answer this and this comes right over to wealth management to retirement to psychology of what we're doing on Bloomberg money. You are an expert on the continent of Europe is the continent of Europe the United well let's the United Kingdom but are they going to become more Anglo American in their capitalism we're all praying for them to take more risk to me more equity based do you buy it? I over time this will come because the Europeans understand this they know that they need more capital to take risk if they need growth they will absolutely have to grow their economies and have more developed financial markets. Think about it if you're nice sitting in Germany or Denmark or France and we have a good idea you will need to then go into your bank and say can I borrow some money and if that says no okay you really have no other places to go so when financial markets in the US you can go to venture capital private credit private equity you can go in another bank that different places you can go and have this discussion can I borrow from the great one? I'm going to get one morning because Scarlet's got smarter questions you know I bought the Austrian one hundred-year paper oh I'm sorry I was a yield hog folks just so you know I really screwed up on this and Torsten said don't do it I bought the hundred-year paper in his down like 80% I know you're laughing at me or at least I didn't buy leverage I was cash we did that with and tell me about yield hog right now given these bond gyrations within our retirement what's most important about your hundred-year bond is that you bought durations and that tells you that bonds can actually also be very risky we're figuring that out that anyone who has public US treasuries and public credit are also very durations sensitive so that's of course why being short of durations is a good idea at the moment and what's particularly also a good idea it should be up in quality firstly and see a secure top of the capital structure but make sure that you are in short of duration debt so that you're not exposed to those duration moves that you unfortunately were exposed to when you bought a hundred-year bond if you're early on in your retirement planning you've got decades left to work and you want to put money away yes you put it in equities but we're keep hearing about alternatives private equity private credit the idea that this is still a good place to go when interest rates are rising confuses me because private equity and private credit got their hate because rates were so low now that rates are higher how's this still a good time as long as you make sure that you have a high quality private credit high quality private equity I mean you get private credit as investment grade that is as good as investment grade from the US government meaning the rating may not be exactly the same but investment grade is very high quality and that exactly is the whole point that when something is investment grade it's able to pay the higher debt servicing cost that come along will illustrate higher so make sure that you're investing companies I know it sounds trivial investing companies that have earnings investing companies that actually make money and therefore able to pay higher interest rates that we're facing at the market one more things were rated investment grade in the last go around in 2007 and then turned out they weren't of course that's true but I mean today I mean a lot of things I investment grade rated by several rating agencies of course investors need to think about what type of and think about the broad spectrum of risk that investors you can take venture capital where you literally have no earnings the next five years that's a different type of risk relative to investing in private credit that has the property of having earnings and therefore the ability to pay the high debt servicing I got one final idea here are you read in on the New York Yankees your Apollo took a minority interest in the New York Yankees absolutely are you still for Tampa Bay in New York yes so ready I have to have I'm going to wear it and I'm going it will be fun that was that was compliant did you see the read talks were you part of that I was personally not part of that but I do read it and we're very excited about it we're so proud of this all right Torsten thank you so much Torsten lock is chief economist over at Apollo really appreciate it coming up on Bloomberg money for millions of Americans rising expenses are just another pressure point on top of their student loans and guess what those loans the payments are getting bigger we'll explain why this is Bloomberg money can you see over Apollo like he has to know some people treat chachi pt like some kind of smart search engine and some use it to get work done chachi pt work is a new way of working in chachi pt that can take action across your apps and files stay with a project for hours if needed and turn a goal into finished work it's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a 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protect more than what you own they help protect what you're building toward and when a bad day does come Cincinnati insurance has real people there to help make things right because planning for the future isn't only about knowing what's next it's about making sure you're ready for what you can't predict let Cincinnati insurance make your bad day better find an independent agent at c_i_n_ f_i_n_ dot com this is the Bloomberg market minute brought to you by comcast business the markets faced plenty of challenges this year rising energy costs higher interest rates pushback to massive artificial intelligence spending but through it all stocks keep breaking records and some analysts think they still can with a focus on the fundamentals not a level is head of global equity strategy at u_b_s_ earnings has been good and continues to be good and well you know we might be past the peak in earnings growth we're not past the peak in earnings level but others like Miller tailback strategist Matt Mailey say those challenges could eventually lead to a downturn whenever we see a significant rise in bond yields like we have and a significant rise in all prices like we have the stock market always are pretty much always ignores it for a while and Wall Street may be starting to take notice a recent city group index shows more analysts cut rather than raise their earnings forecasts for corporate America for the first time in more than five months that was the Bloomberg market minute brought to you by comcast business one partner powering 90 percent of the fortune five hundred and millions of small businesses when you add it all up no one does business like comcast business Bloomberg money is your new destination for personal finance it's a cross-platform effort that extends beyond your television screen including our new digital hub at Bloomberg dot com slash money and Tom this week a story that feels extremely relevant right now is about sorting student loan bills and affordability because everything is more expensive but now there's been this reorganization restructuring of overhaul student loans that's left people with student loan debt paying even bigger so I'm brave to do this I'm conflicted let's bring in one of the authors of the story Bloomberg money reporter Sarah Foster so Sarah what happened here this has to do with Joe Biden and what he did for student loans and now what president Trump is doing when it comes to student loans right a lot of Americans student loan borrowers are really kind of caught in the crosshairs of these shifting federal student loan repayment plans we spoke with my colleagues Liam Knox in general marty we kind of profiled student loan borrowers across the country asking them what payment plans they're picking how their bills are changing how it's impacting their finances and many of the borrowers that we spoke with told us that their payments have in some cases doubled so that's because they're choosing bigger payments as opposed to extending their loans for longer right there is two new repayment plan options and a lot of them either come with longer repayment windows or they come with higher bills that can accelerate those repayments and so it's resulting in a lot of these Americans who took on student loan debt kind of choosing between paying off their student loan bill or saving for retirement saving for other long-term goals and a lot of the borrowers that we spoke with mentioned to us that you know they're kind of having to sacrifice that. Can you research on this? Is there any understanding that for decades people paid their student loans? I spoke with one borrower who has continued to make payments for almost 20 years and he switched to multiple different repayment plans. He's gone back and forth on forbearance periods while he's gone to graduate school and it's ultimately resulted in the interest of being even higher than the principal balance that he took out. The amount that people are borrowing now is vastly different than what they're borrowing 20, 30, 40 years ago. I totally agree with that. So I don't know that it's a fair comparison. I agree. And what the outstanding student loan out there is massive compared with credit card loans or auto loans. Talk a little bit about the make up there. Yeah, we also looked at kind of the composition of debt that a lot of household have and it's still the case that you know this housing debt makes up the biggest share. But when you compare auto loans and student loan debt you know those are roughly identical and it's really kind of the increase that we've seen in student loan debt since the early 2000s that's big of a major hurdle. I got to do this on personal finance. The chart earlier in the week was a shock and it was so important folks were going to give it to you again. And of course Sarah's living this as we look at the 30 year mortgage rate, who knows where it'll be Monday, who knows where it'll be a month from now. But the trajectory is really, really shocking. The long-term trend of the free launch, Scarlett expanded out to 8,000 square feet right in the bottom there in 2022 and up up we go from 3 to 7% Sarah this is a profound impact even for people who aren't looking for a 30 year mortgage. I go back to the beginning of the year and I think about what I was hearing from a lot of the economists who I was speaking with and the hope was that 2026 would really be better for us. You know we even briefly saw Morgan Drake's tip below 6%. Right, the idea was that we would see interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and therefore that would bring down mortgage rates and allow people, especially first time home buyers to finally be able to buy that home. And it's been so difficult because I think what was originally thought as the ceiling, that 7% rate is now being questioned as whether it's the new floor and you know as long as the floor and Iran continues, you know, oil prices trading above $100 a barrel decent at record highs. This is going to continue to be a problem. Now folks, I've lumbered money. We destroy Sarah Foster's weekend. Let's do it with a book. This is my autumnal read, which I just think is incredibly important on bonds, but it's a highly readable look at the history of bonds from Venice to Amsterdam to London and over to Alexander Hamilton in America. This is a triumph by Robin Wigglesworth, a fabulous debt, which is a quote I believe from England ages ago. I just can't say enough about the readability of this for people that want to know from the past, it reads like Daniel Jürgen, the prize, Commanding Heights, and the others. There's indeed mystified the bond market. It does. And he's beautiful about explaining Tom Keen Babel in English, Robin is a great job and I can't say enough about it. Mary Childs wrote a fantastic review of this book for a Bloomberg weekend. I'm curious whether they're going to turn into some kind of TV series on Netflix or something else. They can talk about how there's like specific examples, right? What happened in Amsterdam, what happened when Alexander Hamilton was leading the treasury? Yeah, it was. And even, you know, he brings up the play from Broadway, you know, so he brings everything easy. Even as Mary Childs in the book, I might point out. Oh, really? Ed Yardani shows up early and then sitting on a great book and I love you've got Gretchen in your book this week. Yeah, sorry. You teased it. Dead is at the heart of the P industry, which is one of the single most significant wealth generators in the past 30, 40 years. You just look at who owns all the sports teams and drives Wall Street. So my book is Gretchen Morgan's Sin and Joshua Rosner's. These are the plunderers, how PE runs and wrecks America. So not subtle at all. They clearly have a point of view. But it's really about how private equity financiers use debt to fund corporate takeovers and load them up with debt while cutting costs and generate big profits for themselves and really remaking the economy in the process and we're now seeing it. When I hear all the time and this goes back to Susie Welch earlier in the program, you can't do this without reading background. And that's what the Wigglesworth and Morgan's and Raj's Rosner books do. They're background to make you have a deeper thought about what we're doing in personal fantasy. I meet so many young people and Sarah, I'm sure you feel the same. You've encountered this as well, who say that they want to go into private equity. This is before they've ever worked in banking at all. They just want the straight line to private equity because that's how you build wealth. That's how you make a lot of money. That's the new investment banking Wall Street. It's true. There's this new rise in young earners, so I think I've realized that you don't grow your wealth through your salary alone. You kind of grow your wealth through assets and especially if you're able to kind of take a job that moves you with some of these stock options. Maybe the ability to eventually work for a company that I PO's is-- But you have a timeline of what? One year, two years? Where am I going to be in four years, right? The investing schedule is difficult and it's complicated. You know, as we see, it's so much volatility in the market that it's something you definitely have to consider. All right. Sarah Foster, really appreciate you joining us as always. We're a reporter, Sarah Foster, with our coverage of student loans, as well as mortgages. For the latest reviews and recommendations from Bloomberg, be sure to subscribe to the on-books newsletter. Tom, your book, once again, the "Elegant Death." Oh, I like that, Robin. Thank you so much. Scar Butchering. The Fabulous Death. A Fabulous Death. A Fabulous Death. Fabulous Death. All right. Really quick. It may feel like summer. The leaves are changing. Tom, head in on "Tom No Book." The gas in the tank to go see fall foliage. We're going to take a look at what are spending their money on this weekend and in the weekends to come. That's upstate. Mark. I think it's Central Park. It's Central Park. Central Park. The Bloomberg Money, and we say good afternoon to your Scarlet Fu and Tom Keane with us now. Lisa Mateo, any number of things to talk about to get through this weekend in Bloomberg, this weekend. But as we said with Torsten Slack, Yankees on a roll crushed the red socks. No one was more happy than Lisa Mateo, the Yankees doing well. And of course, Lisa's been garbed in the dreaded New York Yankees. Merch here over the years and, oh, thank you for the red socks for those guys, really. Yes, yes. Oh, Tom, Tom, I'm so sorry. I know you call them the dreaded Yankees, but we have to go on because, yes, the Fabulous Jacket. I do have the Yankees. Thanks you to Tom Keane. You're so happy. It's too much. It's too much. It's too much. It's too much. There's a first game of the ALDS on Saturday. On Saturday. Yeah, go to Tampa. So after they swept the boss, they swept boss and we're moving on Saturday to Tampa Bay. And then from Saturday, you go to Monday, but then Wednesday, they bring it back home. And that's where you start looking up tickets because my husband's already asking me, can we get tickets? Talk about personal finance and going to play. Yeah, tickets Wednesday. So if you look at behind where the Yankees sit, $6,000, about $6,000 for one ticket, it's $12,000. That's the starting. But then if you go all the way back to 2,300 section, which is usually where we are, it's about between two and 300 bucks. So there you go. 400 more reasonable. Yeah, 400 range. You can get them for 100 and something, but everyone's asking that. Well, that's a nice fan of Yankees' feet red socks. Yes. Still do that special for you, isn't it? Why don't we seguy here to what matters in the autumnal glow? Well, a lot of people driving out and checking out the fall foliage. I've already started. They started in the polka nose. You see the colors are ready. We've been up there. Way up saying you can start to see it too, and they have this great friary that takes you on this whole beer trekking, you know? Oh, I'm shocked. I'll go. Straight up the Hudson River. It's amazing. Just in time for people to visit their kids at school, right? Yes. Visiting weekends tend to coincide with these fall foliage. That's correct. Yes, I know. I just came back from visiting my daughter. It was a great experience. There's also the possibility if you happen to fly. I don't know if you know about this. United wants you to defect from Delta or American. It's the battle of the Wi-Fi. You have to think about it. If you're going to travel, you're going to go united. You're going to go Delta because United has Elon Musk's starlink, and Delta does not. They have Amazon Leo. And this is Wi-Fi service. Yes. Inflite Wi-Fi. So it's the whole back and forth. United is trying to get Delta's customers to say, hey, you know, through October 15th, we'll take you on and we'll keep your loyalty points, too. I mean, I know you're personal finance, but basically, because of Lisa's appearance, your SpaceX is spiked up today. Yes. Not to a 157 level, and that's starlink, right? That's starlink. That's starlink. That's starlink. Yes, among many, many businesses. But, you know, everyone's points. That's personal finance. Did your daughter bother you to class yet? She is attempting, yes. She has a big anatomy of physics test today. Well, so much to her. It's a little stressed out. But it's good. It's very good. Thank you so much. I make sure to watch Bloomberg this weekend every Saturday and Sunday morning, starting at 7 a.m. Eastern time. That does it for Bloomberg money today. Have a great day. This is the Bloomberg money podcast bringing you a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life. I'm Tom Keane with Scarlet Food. 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