El Niño could be 'strongest in living memory'

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. An award-winning behavioural scientist and author of the best-selling book How to Change, as she shares true stories from Nobel laureates, authors, athletes and everyday people about why we make the choices we do and how to make better ones to help avoid costly mistakes. Listen to Choiceology at schwab.com slash podcast or wherever you listen. I'm Valerie Sanderson and on Friday the 21st of August, these are our main stories. Weather experts warn that a developing El Nino event could become the largest in living memory. Imran Khan, Pakistan's former prime minister, is returned to jail after being taken to hospital. We report from the occupied West Bank, where Israeli settlers have returned to a village after 21 years. Also in this podcast, the true story of a man who cycled from India to Europe for a long time. Love is turned into a film. You meet them and you're like, wow, you know, this is a love story with a happy ending because you're still together. They hold hands and they're affectionate and I'm like, I want that after 50 years, you know. It's amazing. It seems every week another report is released about extreme weather and the increasingly worrying state of the climate. Today is no exception. Scientists are now warning that the El Nino weather event, developing over the next few years, with the Pacific Ocean, is likely to be the strongest in living memory. Professor Adam Scaife is head of long-range forecasting for Britain's Met Office, which released the latest data. I've been involved in long-range forecasting for many years and I have never seen an event like this in our forecasts. The tropical Pacific is warming faster than I've ever seen and assuming the forecasts are correct and we've got very high confidence at this stage, we think that when it peaks in November and December, it's likely to be record event, unprecedented beyond anything we've seen in living memory. I heard more from our environment correspondent, Matt McGrath. I think it's worth bearing in mind that this current El Nino was only declared just over two months ago in June and that declaration means the temperatures in the water have reached 0.5 degrees above the long-term average. Now that's gone from that to two degrees in a couple of months. It's likely to go higher to at least three degrees according to the Met Office, maybe four degrees according to other forecasts. Those are significant increases in temperatures and if you look at what's driving it, there's heat down in the water, perhaps eight degrees above the long-term average deep in the waters of the Pacific. So that's an awful lot of heat that could come out of the, and will come out of the ocean and will have impacts all around the world. A lot of people listening to this, Matt, are going to think, you know, why is El Nino itself so important? What does this system actually do? Yeah, what it does really is disrupt the weather patterns and the weather systems that we've all gotten used to around the world. So the monsoon, for instance, the increase of heat, the increase of change in the winds that's caused by the rise of heat in the Pacific, that increases the chance of a very low monsoon, which affects millions and millions of people. You'll also see different aspects of it as well. So you get flooding in some places. We've already seen reports in Peru, which is right in the path of El Nino, right close to it, of getting increased floods in the last couple of weeks. We've seen the Panama Canal declare that they're going to cut the number of ships because they're being affected by a drought. So each and every area around, particularly around the tropical belt of the world, is hugely affected from Indonesia to Australia, all around that central bit. But other parts of the world are affected as well. And we're likely to see the biggest overall impact, which is our new record global temperature next year. That will be directly linked, I think, to the added heat that El Nino will push into the atmosphere. I mean, this is a simplistic question, but can anything be done? I don't think there's anything that can be done directly. And people often talk about these events as being linked to climate change. And this is one of those events that's a, it's a natural event, but it occurs in a much warmer world. It's not directly linked to climate change. So us cutting back our fossil fuels and our emissions aren't going to directly impact El Nino, but it's happening in a much warmer world. And if it wasn't happening in such a warm world, it may not have such a direct impact. The floods, the droughts might not be as strong. So I don't think there's anything we can do except bear it, be aware of it. Listen to the forecast, be aware of what's happening in the world, but stopping it. I'm afraid it's a natural event. It happens every two to seven years and we've been having these for almost a thousand years. Matt McGrath. We heard there from Matt about the growing threat from El Nino. Indian consumers are already feeling the impact with the skyrocketing price of sugar. Now the Indian authorities have approved duty-free imports of raw sugar to bolster local supplies. Our India business correspondent, Archana Shukla, is following this in Mumbai. I asked her, will these measures be enough to satisfy the demand for sugar in the country? Well, to some extent, yes. They are hoping that with additional supplies coming in, the prices will start easing, which have gone up by more than 40% here in the local markets. And with the festive season coming up, we have a long period of festivals with the Shehra, Diwali, and then the wedding season. That's a period when the demand for sweets actually goes up quite a lot. And that is the period when the government hopes that the supply would help. You know, it wouldn't have been this big a problem if the cropping season was normal. But because of the El Nino impact, there have been erratic rain patterns and the sugarcane crop has been hurt. And the spare capacity that India has normally is now being directed to ethanol-based fuels. So the supply actually is crunched from both sides. And that is pushing the government to import first time in a decade. And that definitely will also have impact globally. Because remember, India is the second largest producer of sugar and second largest producer of exporter. And this is happening at a time when, you know, other hub exports like Brazil and Europe, are also seeing impacts on the sugar crop production. And I was checking earlier in the morning, international prices of sugar has already started ticking up with news that India would be importing now rather than exporting. And Ashana, tell us about other ways that Indian consumers might be affected by El Nino. Well, you know, across different aspects in our lives. You know, this time in summer, we saw some of the most intense nighttime heat for people. The demand for. You know, power went up, you know, for cooling, for air conditioning went up. It also impacted people's sleep patterns, their work life. And the biggest impact is now coming on food with erratic rains. And we know India's, you know, majority of the farms here in India are rain-fed. And, you know, with the monsoon being delayed, monsoon being erratic, it's affecting crops, not just sugarcane, but also rice, wheat, the entire monsoon cropping season. And it's hitting food prices. We've seen some of our kitchen staples becoming very expensive. From the grains, from vegetables. And that's a direct hit on household budgets. Then we are looking at, you know, water reservoirs, you know, at very low capacities at this point in time. And, you know, everybody's looking at the monsoon to kind of fill in. Otherwise, you know, water for drinking water purposes and even for winter crop, it could be a problem. Ashana Shukla. Israeli settlers have returned to the settlement of Kadim in the occupied West Bank, 21 years after it was evacuated by a previous Israeli. Kadim is the last of four West Bank settlements dismantled in 2005 to be reopened under the current Israeli government and is part of a sprint to expand settlement across the West Bank before elections are held in Israel in October. Our Middle East correspondent Lucy Williamson has this report from outside Kadim. Flanked by government ministers and rows of new white caravans, settler leader Yossi Dagan congratulates Kadim's new settler families as the inaugural ribbon was cut. We've corrected the expulsion from northern Samaria, Dagan said, using the biblical name for the occupied West Bank, vowing that Jewish settlers would return to Gaza too. This area around Jenin is the latest focus of Israel's push to expand settlements across the West Bank. Government ministers and settler leaders were invited to Kadim's opening ceremony. Journalists were not. Down a narrow track just behind the settlement, we found a Palestinian vegetable farmer and his family. He asked us to hide his identity. As a boy, he told us he'd watched from this same house as the settlement of Kadim was built, then watched it evacuated two decades later. Now he's watching the settlers return. This time it's different, he told me, Back then, the settlers lived alongside us. They lived their lives and we lived ours. But now, they already drove my nephews away from their citrus trees, telling them, you have no place here. Don't come back. Kadim was one of four Israeli settlements forcibly evacuated in 2005. Israel's current government has reopened all four of them and approved a new settlement. approved more new settlements. in the area as well, overturning a 20-year ban on Israeli settlers around Jenin. By the time caravans had arrived at the new settlement of Emek Dotan, Palestinian teacher Samad Jabba says the problems had already begun. Settlers try to enter our homes and provoke us in every possible way. The biggest problem is after midnight. After midnight, they have powerful floodlights. And they stop right next to the house, shining them directly through the windows, house after house, until two or three in the morning. Alongside new settlements around Jenin, a new Israeli military bases, including one near Jenin's refugee camp, the first permanent Israeli military site built on land under full Palestinian authority control. In the past, we enjoyed. We enjoyed the bliss of not having settlements. Now, we live in a hell made by settlers and their attacks. Kamal Abu Al-Rab is the Palestinian Authority governor in Jenin. It's as if the Israelis are racing against time before the upcoming elections. Many of the areas around the city are now surrounded by settlements. Farmers are afraid and anxious about settler attacks when they go to work on their lands. They have also cut off roads, bulldozed lands and cut down trees. This is the road that links the new settlement of Kadim to Israel. The last time I was here, just a few weeks ago, we sat in a cafe over here drinking coffee surrounded by Palestinian shops and businesses. Since then, dozens of those businesses have been flattened by the Israeli army. It gives you some sense of how fast things here are changing. Lucy Williamson reporting. This morning's headlines here in Britain are dominated by the news that Prince Harry and his family are returning to the UK after six years in the US. And reports in Australia say that his wife, Meghan, has been offered an acting role here, which sources close to the family have not denied. Bronte Coy is senior entertainment and royal correspondent at the Australian outlet news.com.au, which broke the story. This is such a key part of the puzzle. And I think when we all heard that news that Harry and Meghan were moving here, and within a matter of days, and the kids were enrolled in school, everyone was asking, well, what is Meghan going to be doing? Is she keen on returning to royal life? Or what will her career look like in the UK? And I think this here answers a lot of that now. I had heard rumours that potentially she'd be stepping into the acting world a little bit more. We saw a sign of that actually late last year when it emerged that she had filmed a cameo as herself in a big upcoming movie with Jack Quaid and Lily Collins. But this is obviously a massive step now back into that direction. And again, this is clearly part of why they've decided now to relocate over here with the kids, because either she has signed or is about to sign on for this project. I'm told it's significant, and she's very excited about it. But we don't know exactly what it is. And when we look at the fairly scant level of detail that we do have, the fact that the children will be enrolled in school might be telling, because things like Hollywood blockbuster movies or TV shows, they tend to be filmed reasonably quickly now in just a couple of, in a couple of weeks. So it could be a longer term role, a longer lasting role, perhaps. You're exactly right. I mean, this has clearly been a top secret operation as conversations have been undergoing. But what we can glean is that if they are going to be here for what we're told is an extended period of time, it does indicate that it would be a lengthier project, possibly a show. I think we will find out relatively soon, because if it is now at the point where she is signing on, I know this project is definitely happening. Because as I say, it's a big part of why they wanted to move over here. There's also obviously Harry. Harry's connection to the UK and wanting to spend time with his wider family. But this is a big part of it. Bronte Coy speaking there to Anna Foster. Still to come in this podcast, a classic 19th century novel reimagined by AI for Generation Z. I used to stare at the headstones trying to imagine what they looked like, which was bare brain rot behaviour when you think about it. Just me standing in a graveyard, doom scrolling through my own trauma. This is Jana Kramer from Wine Down with Jana Kramer. I had this moment the other day where I thought, why am I waiting for my next vacation to enjoy life? I don't need a week off. Just a day to rest and recharge would be amazing. And so I went to resortpass.com. There are hundreds of hotel resort pools, spas and private beaches that you can be enjoying today without spending the night. I booked a one day pass at the Four Seasons Hotel, in Spa, Nashville. And I'm like, wow, why am I just learning about Resort Pass? I may have only been 15 minutes from home, but it felt like a whole different world. 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Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan is back in prison after being taken to hospital amid reports that he was unwell. His lawyers say he's practically blind in one eye. But on Friday morning, doctors at the hospital deemed him medically fit. Mr Khan has been held in prison for three years, on corruption charges, which he says are politically motivated. A short while ago, Imran Khan's sister, who'd been present at the hospital, spoke to reporters. They only examined Imran Khan's eyes. No blood tests or any other medical examinations were conducted. Only his eyes were checked. I don't know who these doctors were. Only Imran Khan's blood pressure was measured and no other tests were performed. I got more from our correspondent, Caroline Davis. During that conference, they talked a little bit about what happened last night because there was really quite a lot of confusion around this transfer to hospital and then back again to prison. There'd been a Supreme Court ruling that had said that he should be moved to a particular hospital, which was a private hospital. That was the hospital that his family and party preferred him to go to and they wanted him to be seen by his own personal physician. However, it has now emerged that he did not go to that hospital. Instead, he was taken, along with his sister, to a different hospital, which is a state-run facility. His doctor, meanwhile, told us at the conference that he was taken to the private hospital where he waited for Mr Khan, but Mr Khan never appeared because he was taken from the state-run hospital straight back to prison. So a lot of confusion around exactly what happened there. Mr Khan did have checks and tests done on him. They were observed by his sister, who is also a doctor as well, so that she was monitoring what happened. Now, the other sort of element of confusion here is that we were repeatedly told during the press conference about how, you know, how fit and healthy Mr Khan is as an individual, but also that they have these ongoing concerns about some of his blood pressure readings that had been taken in the run-up to this. Those have apparently improved and the eye condition that you mentioned as well, which was particularly prevalent earlier this year, we've also seen reports that that has improved as well. And Mr Khan is now back in prison. I think beyond all of the health concerns, which obviously a large amount of his supporters are very worried about, this is also about something else. This is the fact that, after over three years in prison, this is the first indication of Mr Khan getting some form of relief, in whatever form that is, from the court system. And the fact that that hasn't happened for the course of the last three years has meant there's been a lot of speculation here in Islamabad about what might be going on behind the scenes that has led to that level of development. Now, that is all speculation. We have not heard of anything from Imran Khan's party talking about any form of deal or discussions, particularly with Pakistan's politically powerful military and intelligence services. And of course, we've not heard anything from the military's side either. But that is certainly what people are watching. And that is also why all of these tiny intricacies, which might seem like intricacies about which hospital he went to and how quickly he was transferred back, are also being monitored and looked at because everybody's trying to see if this is an indication of what might happen next with Mr Khan. Caroline Davis. A new film, The Cycle of Love, focusing on the discrimination people can face because of India's caste system, has premiered in the US. It tells the true-life story of P.K., a street artist from the marginalised Dalit caste who cycled more than 9,000 kilometres from India to Europe to try to reunite with his true-love lotter from Sweden. About 200 million people in India are Dalits, historically known as untouchables, who face generations of discrimination and exclusion. Our culture correspondent, Noor Nanji, spoke to Priyanka Chopra Jonas, who executive-produced the movie, and its director, Orlando, von ein Siedel and I Ask them what the real-life P.K. and Lotta think about the film. I think one of the things that makes me feel that maybe we got it right is when this film's played at film festivals, P.K. and Lotta have come and they've watched every single screening of the film, which is amazing. Cute together, like, you meet them and you're like, wow, you know, this is a love story with a happy ending because you're still together and you're still cute. Like, they're still, like, they hold hands and they're affectionate and I'm like, I want that after 50 years, you know? It's amazing. What does this film say to you about the power of love? I think it stands for how resilient love can be. And I think resilience is one of the most important qualities when it's actually really true love. Like, when you're resilient and you're like, I will bend heaven and earth to achieve this thing, that makes it passionate, it makes it magical. And this movie's like. It's an absolute example of that. Orlando, do you think many people outside of India will be shocked that this level of discrimination based on a person's caste exists? Well, I think discrimination exists in all societies. I think more than anything, this is also, as Priyanka was saying, this is a story about extraordinary human resilience and a man learning to love himself and by loving himself, being able to love others. And Priyanka, the issues in this film, of social justice and a fairer system, are very topical right now, given the protests we've seen in India. How timely do you feel that your film is? And what do you hope that the film will achieve? I think this is a conversation which is timely at any given time. And it's unfortunate that, I'm sorry, but your question makes it timely just currently. I think these are issues we've discussed historically. And as human beings, taking the right step in that direction is what is crucial. And the word untouchable itself, is quite contentious and maybe even offensive to some. What discussions did you guys have around it? So, you know, whenever you make a film outside of your own socioeconomic experience, it's an enormous responsibility. We took trying to get this right in the film very, very seriously. That began by working together with PK, Lotta and the whole family. But we also surrounded ourselves with experts. We worked with a number of cast experts on this film. And, you know, I knew very little about this before getting into it. And I've done my best to educate myself. And hopefully we've done a job of representing this correctly in the film. Orlando von Einsiedel and Priyanka Chopra Jonas speaking there to Noor Nanji. There have been many adaptations of Charles Dickens' novels, but here's the latest. A reimagination of great expectations to reflect the way teenagers speak today. The novel was fed into an AI model and translated into Generation Z, or Generation Z slang. Here's the opening of the novel. The way Dickens wrote it. My father's family name being Pirip and my Christian name Philip, my infant tongue could make of both names nothing longer or more explicit than Pip. So I called myself Pip and came to be called Pip. I give Pirip as my father's family name on the authority of his tombstone and my sister, Mrs. Jo Gargery, who married the blacksmith. As I never saw my father or my mother and never saw any likeness of either of them, for their days were long before the days of photographs. My first fancies. Guarding what they were like were unreasonably derived from their tombstones. And here's its Gen Z translation. So I called myself Pip. ICL. I can't lie. It's not exactly a name with much riz, but here we are. I never knew my parents. I'd only ever seen their gravestones in the churchyard down in the marshes. Proper bleak vibes, all mist and sadness. Just me. Standing in a graveyard. Doom scrolling through my own trauma. It was on one such evening, Christmas Eve no less, that my life went mad delulu. Simon Jack spoke to Lucinda Dickens-Hawksley, the author of several books on Charles Dickens. She's also the great, great, great granddaughter of this celebrated novelist. So, what does she make of this Gen Z version? Well, I mean, I think it's always great to have Dickens reinterpreted. I think people get really hidebound by, oh, we have to just stick to the original. As long as the original is always, kept and able to be studied. I think it's great to bring Dickens out for a new generation. I just think that maybe people aren't as all hidebound to the Generation Z text speak as we think they are. I guess the thing is, it's all very well having modern words, but as long as they're accurate as whether they convey the original meaning. Yeah, I mean, I read an article that said that this version was so that parents could understand what their Generation Z children were talking about. And it just really made me laugh. The fact that every single parent apparently knows Great Expectations well enough to be able to translate it. I mean, that's a great idea. I just don't know that that's always true. I think, joking aside, I think it's a great thing to have Dickens reinterpreted because every generation learns a new Dickens. I mean, we have so many different adaptations of things, such as A Christmas Carol. Every year, there's a new one. I do think we need to look at the fact that this was written with AI. So, does AI actually know what Generation Z is talking about? And I'd also like to point out that AI, like, anthropic and meta have actually taken without permission or payment works of many authors, including me. And I think that they couldn't have written this without having scraped, perhaps, words by Generation Z authors. So, that's something that really does need to be looked at. We can joke about it and say it's a good gimmick, but AI is a real issue for real working authors. And I wonder, what would Dickens have thought of that, of his work being rewritten, not by a Generation Z author, which would be great, but by a bot? You mentioned it yourself that, you know, how many times has Christmas Carol been done? How many times has Great Interpretations? I mean, why has his work been adapted so many times over the years? What is it about the work that still captures each generation? Whatever interpretation is done, Dickens wrote great plots, and that is what's always going to work. As long as you get the plot right, it's when people take great works, classic works, and they rewrite them and give them their own ending because they didn't like the original, or whatever it might be. I think that is a bit frustrating, because then you're not really sticking with the essence of it. But what I love about Dickens is his characters stand the test of time. Lucinda Dickens-Hawksley. And that's it from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us at globalpodcast at bbc.co.uk. You can also watch our episodes in full. Just search for The Global News Podcast on YouTube. And don't forget our sister podcast, The Global Story, which goes in-depth and beyond the headlines on one big story. This edition of The Global News Podcast was mixed by Darcy O'Brie. The producer was Adrian White, and the editor, is Karen Martin. I'm Valerie Sanderson. Until next time, bye-bye.