ECR vs. ADP: Draft Picks Experts Love to Target with Justin Boone (Ep. 2149)
58m 18s
In this fantasy football podcast episode, hosts Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson are joined by Justin Boone, last year’s most accurate ranker, to compare Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from the top 20 most accurate experts against Average Draft Position (ADP). They analyze several players across positions, focusing on discrepancies to guide draft decisions. For running backs, they support Breece Hall at ECR over ADP, citing his youth and upside despite injury risks, while favoring Rhamondre Stevenson over Travon Henderson due to Stevenson’s superior play and trust from the Patriots. Jonathan Brooks is seen as a value at ADP, with hosts optimistic about his path to lead back and receiving role. At wide receiver, Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore are viewed as slightly overdrafted, but hosts still lean ADP, while Courtland Sutton is a major fade—both hosts prefer ADP, citing Jalen Waddle’s arrival and Sutton’s declining efficiency. For quarterback, Matthew Stafford is avoided at ADP due to age and regression concerns, with hosts favoring ECR. Finally, Isaiah Likely is supported at ADP, with hosts highlighting his chemistry with the quarterback and slot usage. The episode emphasizes trusting your own rankings over market trends, using tools like FantasyPros’ draft assistant to build personalized cheat sheets.
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This obviously is a grouping of 100 to 200 plus rankers.
I, and which you can do as well watching, you can do in a little identifier like I did
where we're going to hone this in to actually the top 20, the top 20 most accurate rankers
in the expert consensus rank.
And we're going to battle that versus ADP.
Now, why is that relevant?
Because we have last year's most accurate ranker from the in-season, Justin Boone from
Yahoo Sports, who's going to be joining us.
It's me and Erickson.
I'm Welsh.
That's Andrew Erickson.
The most accurate ranker in the land, Justin Boone.
That is the perfect person that we could bring on for ADP versus ECR.
So, Justin, again, congratulations.
And how are you, man?
I'm doing well.
I mean, you're saying that we're using the top 20 rankers for this show.
I would argue we only need to use the number one ranker, but that's your choice.
We could definitely go top 20 if that makes the show a little better.
But no, I'm always excited to jump on with you guys.
It's super fun.
And this is a great time of year to do it, right?
I love talking this stuff over.
Things are changing so much right now.
News coming out of practice.
We're seeing a lot of injuries this month, which I feel like in the last couple of years,
it didn't seem like we had that many injuries like this coming out of practices in August.
But that's the way it is.
So we're keeping an eye on that.
We're keeping an eye on preseason games.
And we're adapting and updating the rankings along the way.
Erickson, we're going to change this to the JBCR, the Justin Boone Consensus Ranks,
is what we're going to be doing this episode, if you're ready.
But how this works.
So ECR, again, it's like all of the rankers that are in.
But a feature that you can do when you're checking out ECR is you can hone it in.
You can just say, well, I just want to see the consensus rank of the top 10 people or the top 20.
So I honed it in a little bit.
And we are going to be taking the top 20 most accurate rankers.
And then we are going to be battling that versus what the ADP looks like.
And that is going to create where there are some pretty big discrepancies, Erickson.
Surprisingly, there are some guys that won that even has a 10-spot difference between their ADP
and where they're being ranked in consensus.
So this is a fun experiment using some of the fantasy pros tools, Erickson, that we've got.
And just some common terms that people are used to of average draft position versus where people are ranking.
That's always the battle, right?
Yeah, it's pitting the experts, the so-called experts, as we see a lot in the comments,
where, oh, these experts versus the marketplace.
It's like, well, this is where people are actually drafting these certain players
and picking sides of do we actually agree with our colleagues, the other experts,
or are we men of the people, right?
No.
I'm following the herd.
I'm going with the ADP here.
So it'll be an interesting conversation.
And Justin Boone is the perfect guest to have on.
Perfect guest.
Perfect guest.
Our top accuracy guy.
And again, this is going to be taking sides.
So the battle here is going to be ECR versus ADP.
Both of you fine gentlemen are going to be picking which side you buy,
which is either going to be the high or the low.
We're going to start with running backs, go to wide receivers,
and then a little sprinkle of quarterback and tight end that we're going to be tackling today.
If you guys want to follow along, obviously, check out the ranks page,
fantasypros.com.
slash NFL slash rankings.
You can just type in your search bar, fantasy pros ranks,
take you in there for we're doing this versus half PPR.
You can do the same thing with the ADP.
But a cool thing about the ranks page is not only will it show you,
you know, the names, the ranks,
it'll show you kind of the volatility of upside versus bust.
But there's a nice little thing on the side that says this player is positive
or negative versus ADP.
So it's just kind of set there for you.
And that is going to start us off in the running backs.
The first running.
Back ECR versus ADP is Brees Hall.
Brees Hall coming in as the expert consensus 14th running back.
And again, I just want to reiterate this one more time,
because if you go to ECR, you could see slight differences.
This is what the top 20 most accurate rankers from last year have.
Brees Hall as is their 14th RB.
The ADP is three spots higher.
So this is ECR 14 versus ADP 17.
I kind of feel like there's,
there's a little bit of question volatility of the three running back thing.
There's the injury that's looming out here.
So this is an interesting one.
So Justin Boone, why don't you start us off?
Brees Hall, ECR or ADP?
It's ECR for me.
I have them exactly RB 14 in my rankings.
And really I was a little more excited about him before this injury.
And I think the talk was that we were going to go away from this being more of a committee,
like we saw last year.
And like we've seen sometimes in the past there,
and that this was finally going to be the year where they were going to put a little more on him,
let him take on more of a workhorse role.
And that's got to get you excited because this is a back that we've seen him do this before.
We have seen him step up,
put up quality fantasy seasons.
I know it seems like a long time ago,
going back to like his rookie season when he was a top 10 fantasy back over the first seven weeks before he tore the ACL.
And then we've kind of had a mix since then.
He comes back the next year.
He's the RB six and fantasy points per game.
In 2023 did a lot of that.
At the end of the season,
the final month,
he was the second highest scoring back behind only CMC.
And that got you really excited.
It was like Brees halls back.
We're going to go into 2024.
He's going to make it happen.
And then since then it's just been kind of a downward slide,
right?
And part of that's been the quarterback situation.
Part of that's been the jets.
Just haven't been a very good team.
I think we can all admit that even jets fans would probably agree with that.
But now this guy's still 25 years old.
He's not.
Not old.
We know he has that elite upside if he can stay healthy.
And you hate to see the injury in the preseason here.
You hate to see him missing time.
It sounds like he will be back.
You know,
if not for week one,
though,
it seems like week one is likely then very,
very early,
maybe week two or something like that.
This is not going to keep him out for a while,
but whenever that injury seal gets broken,
you're a little bit concerned,
right?
Could there be an aggravation?
Could there be some sort of like cascade injury where he's compensating?
And then he ends up hurting himself in a,
in a different way.
So all those things are there,
but when you get to the range that he's going in,
like my question is,
who are you bumping above him or below him?
Like in that area,
to me,
he really belongs around RB 14 RB 15,
because the guys below him have just as many red flags or question marks.
The guys that are below him,
by the way,
is I pull this in here or I guess that are like 14 is Josh Jacobs on this.
The guys that are above him,
Jeremiah love is still there in Javante Williams.
So Josh Jacobs,
Jeremiah love Javante Williams are all flowing in there.
So one other thing I'd ask you,
Boone is what do you think is the driving force of the ADP difference?
Let's not use injury because I don't know if injury has adjusted the ADPs or
anything like that enough.
It's either gotta be the lack of offensive support,
just as a jets player or the three running back system.
What do you think drives the ADP?
Cause this is one of those where experts are liking him more than any draft
person is.
And he continuously falls.
We see that every single year.
Not that three spots feel significant,
but it's,
it's significant enough to go from 14 down to 17.
What do you think the main,
if you had to pick one driver of why people aren't pushing the button on
breeze hall versus what experts are saying?
Probably recency bias,
what he's done the last couple of years,
like RB 18 and fantasy points per game in 2024,
RB 21 last year.
So more like the range that ADP has him in at the moment.
It's a bit of a projection to look at him and say,
Hey,
this year could be better.
This could be a,
a bit of a bounce back.
Maybe the jets are actually a little better.
Cause I would argue that that offense that we tried to talk ourselves into
it before in the last couple of seasons this year,
they bring in Gino Smith.
Hopefully you just give them average quarterback play.
They don't need a superstar there.
They brought in some other names.
Now you look at the skill position talent that they have,
you know,
around breeze and in that offense talk about Garrett Wilson,
80 Mitchell.
We're getting a lot of buzz about him having a connection with Gino
Smith.
I think Kenyon Sadiq at tight end is somebody that everyone's
forgotten about a first round rookie.
Who's also dealing with an injury.
So he's not out there to get that preseason and that training
camp buzz,
but he's going to be back early in the year.
He's going to be a factor in this offense.
Hopefully Omar Cooper jr.
Comes along at some point.
It seems like his launch is a little delayed here.
It might take him a little longer to get going in this offense,
but I think you can tell yourself a story that this team is much
better this year.
They're more competitive and that would help breeze hall,
obviously,
because taking a running back,
on a team that looks like they're going to be one of the worst
in the league that often doesn't work out for fantasy.
That's normally not a great situation.
I'm still scared about the Frank Reich of it all.
I don't know how many people are worried about that when it
comes to ADP and more casual drafters,
but Frank Reich is the offensive coordinator is one thing that
kind of keeps me in check.
Really this range though.
Like I said,
it's so tight.
Like when you talk about him,
you talk about Jeremiah love,
who's also dealing with an injury that could keep him out early
in the season could linger even a high ankle sprain.
That's not something you want to hear.
to hear from a running back.
Guys like Travis Achan, guys like DeAndre Swift, people that are splitting backfields,
like we'll see what happens with the Alvin Kamara injury.
But like I said, there are other kind of warts on these backs in that range that you can't
feel super excited about them.
You can still look at Brees Hall, though, and say, man, he's not that old.
There's a chance that he could really get it going still.
And we've seen him do it before.
Andrew Erickson.
Hey there, Hat Brother.
What do you think, Hat Brother?
ECR 14 versus ADP 17.
What side are you on for Brees Hall?
I am also on the ECR side here.
I also have him ranked right around this range.
And I know, Walsh, you said that the ADP isn't being impacted by the injury.
I think it is.
Because when you're in a real life draft, drafting these players, and you see a player
with the injury tag next to them, I think that causes you, from a mental standpoint,
to be a little gun shy.
I meant more the numerical, like the 17 ADP.
I don't think we have gotten the push
of it.
But I agree that. Oh, so you don't think that's even impacting the injury?
So you think it could go even further down?
No, no.
I just don't think that ADP has had. I don't think the injury has had enough time for ADP to be impacted.
I'm not saying it's not being impacted.
You know how sometimes it can take a couple weeks for. Stefan Diggs still has not adjusted to ADP based on where he's being ranked.
I'm more just saying I don't think we've seen enough.
There's been enough time since the injuries happened to see ADP have him fall even further.
That's all.
But I completely agree.
The injury tag affects ADP.
And that's more of a real-time ADP thing, which, by the way, I was looking to see if
we've seen any real-time ADP adjustments.
And I'm going to have to keep looking because I'm not seeing Breece Hall here.
But keep going on.
Yeah, no adjustment on real-time ADP.
Okay, so he's still around 17?
Yeah, he's still 17.
So we haven't even seen him fall further.
So maybe I'm wrong.
I just don't think there's been enough time since the injury to see ADP him drop, you
know, two more spots or anything like that.
I think it points to. And Boone mentioned this, the range of other running backs he's going in, right?
This is the coined RB dead zone rounds three, four, five, six.
And although the dead zone has changed in recent years, it's basically just the running
backs that if we felt really good and confident about Breece Hall, he'd be going into round
one and two, right?
It's like the next tier running backs where it's like, okay, you can make the case, but
you also have all these holes that you can poke.
Obviously, Breece Hall plays for the New York Jets.
He has a groin injury.
These are the red flags.
These are the red flags that he's accompanying him when we're drafting him or looking to
consider him in 2026.
But I agree with Boone with the upside case for Breece Hall as a player once upon a time
was viewed as a top five locked and loaded fantasy football running back, a three down
skill set, an elite receiver out of the backfield.
That's how you unlock a ceiling with running back.
So when you look at RBs that can beat the dead zone, it's guys that catch passes.
And Breece Hall is attached to a non-mobile quarterback.
So I know that we all get concerned about, well, hey, Chan, like he's going to catch
enough passes from him.
Like Willis, Breece Hall is going to catch a ton of passes from Geno Smith, like a 35
year old quarterback who is a statuesque pocket passer.
Yes, we have concerns about Frank Reich, but we know Frank Reich is not going to be running
Geno Smith in any way, shape or form.
If anything, he'll invite more running back dump off passes to Breece Hall out of the
backfield.
So I think that if you are betting on upside, Breece Hall is still the pick here.
And that's why I also have him closer to the ECR than the ADP.
And let's look at it this way.
Like there was.
There was talk last year that the Chiefs might've been interested in trying to trade for Hall
before the deadline and that they couldn't figure out on the compensation.
And so it never happened.
And then I was hopeful that he was going to leave New York and free agency, obviously
signs the contract and he sticks around.
What if he did end up going to the Chiefs, whether through trade or he ends up signing
there in the off season, wouldn't we kind of be looking at him like almost how we're
looking at Kenneth Walker right now?
Like, wouldn't he be going in the second round at least maybe at the one to turn like that
lends itself to what you were just saying, Erickson.
Like, I think that's a good point.
That is totally a realistic outlook if he had gone to a team like the Chiefs in a backfield
like that.
I also think we should just mention quickly and we're kind of hinting at it, but after
the second round, there is a big drop off in terms of like how confident you feel about
the running backs you're drafting.
And then the next one comes and it's even bigger at that point in my mind, at the end
of like the fifth round, maybe it sneaks into like the early sixth, but by the end of the
fifth, there is like a cliff that happens there and any running back you're getting
after that has massive.
Massive concerns.
Will some of them turn out and be good?
Yeah, of course.
But when I'm kind of looking at drafts and where I want to get running backs, that's
another reason why I'm trying to go running back heavy.
I like to grab at least one, but often two in the first two rounds.
Would you guys agree that in full PPR, Brees Hall would be a little bit higher in your
rank?
Just you don't have to do a big breakdown, but would you agree he's like slightly or
is it the same?
It would probably be similar for me.
Okay, similar.
Okay.
I did find one anomaly.
You guys can check out real time ADP.
We've got it on Facebook.
Just type in fantasy pros, real time ADP or real ADP will get you there.
That will show you 24 hour changes in ADP or seven days.
There was no half PPR change in Brees Hall, but he did drop over two RV spots in full
PPR in the last seven days on real time ADP.
So that's where we're seeing the drop on Brees Hall.
Maybe that is more.
I would guess that's more injury relevant.
And by the way, drop down to 17 in full PPR.
So he was a little bit higher.
So I kind of thought that was interesting.
If you're taking a look at that.
All right, let's go into the next running back here.
This is ECR 20 versus ADP 24 Erickson.
This is gonna be an interesting one for you.
This is Travion Henderson.
Travion Henderson being ranked higher by rankers.
Again, top 20 rankers have him as the 20th RB, but he is going at RB 24.
Erickson has done no favors to his value after talking to beat reporters and screaming about
Ramondre Stevenson being the number one.
So I kind of think I know where we're going to go with this, but Erickson, we'll start
with you.
ECR versus ADP Travion Henderson, which side?
Just like I was at Patriots training camp amongst the crowd.
No media credentials.
I'm a man of the people when it comes to Travion Henderson.
So I'm going with the ADP rank of him, which is a lower than the ECR at RB 20 RB 24.
I actually have Henderson even lower than the ADP because peek behind the curtain.
I have this giant document for everything.
Fantasy football related on my computer.
The number one thing, just the first thing I put in at the beginning of the season.
First thing in my notes, Ramondre Stevenson isn't going away anytime soon.
That is the first thing that I made a note of after the season ended.
Yeah.
And it still hasn't changed.
He was better than Travion Henderson last year.
Averaged more fantasy points per game last year.
Henderson averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game when Stevenson was healthy.
The three games that Stevenson missed, Henderson scored 14.
More fantasy points per game.
Like those were the monster performances that we remember the upside case for Henderson.
They all came for the most part when Stevenson was not in the lineup.
But Ramondre in second half of the year, RB seven in points per game after week 13 throughout
the postseason, 15.4 points per game and half PPR.
I mean, the guy was a low end fantasy RB one, and I get that he's not the sexy explosive
second round pick that the Patriots drafted in 2025, but he's a player that.
This team is in love with he fumbled the ball so many times last year and he continued to
get opportunities and credit to the Patriots coaching staff.
They didn't give up on him and he proved that they were right because of the second half
turnaround he had when he finally got healthy.
He was fifth and explosive run rate last year.
Missed tackle rate yards after contact per attempt.
He was number one in rushing yards over expectation.
So he was really good last year.
And I think that he's being faded for the wrong reasons.
I get Stevenson or the Henderson is the sexy piece of this back.
But for me, it's Stevenson is going to be the RB one.
And don't be surprised when we see the Patriots take the field against the Seahawks.
And Ramondre Stevenson is out there for the majority of the first drive in the snaps for
the most of the season, at least to start the year for sure.
Mr.
Justin Boone.
Another interesting thing.
When you look at real time ADP, we actually are also seeing a tiny bit of a slide.
So if I do you one more, if his ADP is 26 and the top 20 rankers have him at 20 ECR or
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So I have, I'll answer it with this.
I have Henderson at RB27.
And I have.
Stevenson at RB26.
And I would like to say, like Erickson, that I was on this all-off season.
I was not.
I have been dragged kicking and screaming towards the remandre side.
I thought we would see a full offseason.
We would see Henderson just slowly win this coaching staff over.
We've seen that before with young, talented backs that have high draft capital and that are explosive.
And little by little, they get more comfortable in the offense and they take over the backfield.
And the veteran can stick around and still be involved.
But they end up being the more valuable fantasy asset.
I'm not convinced that's going to happen here.
And really, it just comes down to everything we've heard out of New England.
Like from the coaching staff to the beat writers, everyone is saying that what Erickson's saying here,
that Stevenson is still that guy.
And that the things that they've challenged Henderson to do to be better in pass pro,
to be a better between the tackles runner, he hasn't proven that to them yet.
So they're going to continue to go with the guy that they trust, with the veteran back in Stevenson.
Will it be a 50-50?
55-45 kind of split?
Maybe.
That's why they're so close and they're both going to have value.
And I think this offense in general is going to be much better.
You bring in the weapons at receiver, A.J. Brown, Romeo Dobbs.
They're going to be better through the passing game.
They saw a ton of stacked boxes last year.
Now having those weapons downfield, that's going to force defenses to respect them a little more.
So this backfield is going to have success.
But I do think that it's going to be Stevenson, who is the guy that probably has a better fantasy season this year.
Still going as the cheaper back between the two.
So I've drafted him a lot more.
I will say early in the season, though, they have a very tough schedule for fantasy backs.
They've got to go up against Seattle, which we've mentioned.
Tough run defense there.
The Steelers, the Jags.
So could get off to a bit of a slow start.
If you remember the playoffs last year, Ramondre was leading the way,
but they were going up against difficult run defense after difficult run defense,
as normally happens in the playoffs.
And Ramondre was getting more work, but Ramondre wasn't having big,
big fantasy games during those weeks.
So keep that in mind.
This backfield might start slow, but I do still think that Stevenson is the way to go for fantasy.
And I don't really want to get involved with Henderson and pay up,
even though there are still paths towards him returning value towards him ending up as the guy.
It probably mostly involves Stevenson getting hurt, but there are still paths for him.
It's just very risky where you have to take him.
So interesting.
The Henderson just narratives we've had from last year to early season to where it's moved to Ramona.
I'm, I've been a reminder.
Andre guy as well.
And you can see ADP real-time ADP is at 26 right now at RB 24 is what you see on standard top 20 rankers have them at 20.
I mean, it's kind of all over the board.
There's a lot of different narratives to go with.
So, you know, we'll see if there's some changes in the top 20 most accurate rankers from last year,
or if they're just wrong and public sentiment is more of the place to go at 26.
One more running back to hit here.
Probably the most popular, no longer a sleeper.
He's graduated from sleeper.
Jonathan Brooks.
Nobody has been more polarizing in the wanting to draft him range and his ADP.
It's it's high rising the ADP that I've got.
I'll give you real-time ADP in a second, because if we're being Frank, this is going a lot higher.
It shows up at 35.
So that's a top three running back a flex running back, if you will, versus an ECR that's got him at 39.
And again, top 20 rankers got him at 39.
I'll give you updates on what the full looks like in any real-time ADP.
But.
ECR versus ADP, 39 versus 35 top three running back versus a fourth running back.
Justin Boone, where are you at with Jonathan Brooks, ECR or ADP?
I'm on the ADP side and I'm even higher, though.
I thought that we would be talking about his ADP being much higher because in the drafts that I'm in right now,
he goes even higher than RB 29 most of the time.
And I kind of got like, I don't know if lucky is the right word, but I put out a video on him from one of our shows.
And it was me talking kind of like I just did about the Henderson-Romandre thing where I had bumped Brooks over Hubbard.
And then 24, 48 hours later, we find out about the Hubbard injury.
And then everyone is like, all right, Brooks now is the guy.
Let's go get him.
He's going to have a great season.
I still have some reservations about that.
So that's why it feels weird that I'm going to sit here and like argue the higher side because they have the toughest schedule for fantasy backs this year.
I still think once Hubbard's healthy, he's going to be involved.
But I get why the crowd is so excited about this.
It's a great story coming back from the ACL tears and still being a young back that could have a great career and could emerge in this offense.
So all of that is there.
I also think when it comes to like the ADP like that, every fantasy manager wants to get that next breakout, that next sleeper type guy,
especially when it's a young player, young player with a great story.
So I feel like everyone is on board here wanting that hype just pushed up.
And that's getting him into it.
It's getting him into a range where even I haven't been taking him because I've seen him go off the board as the RB 25, RB 26 and some recent drafts.
So for me, I guess I'm ahead of things and I'm with the ADP side, but I'm not 100% convinced that he is going to have this breakout season and be that true difference maker for fantasy in part because the offense, the offensive line injuries they're dealing with the schedule that they have to go against.
So him coming back and just making, you know, a decent fantasy.
Season, just being part of this backfield would be an awesome story, right?
To come back from those injuries.
I'm not expecting him to come back and turn into a top 12, top 15 kind of back.
I'll say, though, I think hidden in there was a little bit of wanting to say ECR, because by the way, if you haven't picked up on it, ECR versus ADP is also kind of like, are you comfortable with him?
What level are you comfortable with him at?
You didn't seem quite sold even on like where his cost is going.
So maybe there's a little bit of like you're wanting the discount because there are some inherent risks.
That's flowing out there.
And by the way, the real time ADP, it is adjusted and I'm doing this, but because the standard ADP, if you go to fantasy pros, you're, you're seeing what I'm telling you.
But the new ADP is got him up at RB 30.
So he has moved up.
It's like 10 spots, nine, 10 spots higher, probably going to flow a little bit higher.
So when it gets into 28, there's a little bit of a question of like, yes, this is where we have him ranked.
But like, are you concerned with some of the risks?
So Erickson, I know you've been a big Jonathan Brooks guy when he was going in the thirties and forties.
I think we all.
I felt comfortable with what we potentially get, but now you are going to be paying closer to cost.
Real-time ADP is 30.
The ADP of battling against his 34 ECR down into the late thirties.
What side are you ECR ADP?
I'm also on the ADP side.
I think the ECR is just generally lagging.
I think that we should be really excited about Jonathan Brooks.
He has a clear pathway to becoming the number one running back and cementing his status as the top running back for the Carolina Panthers for the entire 2026 season.
Jabba Hubbard has a.
String injury.
These things tend to linger.
And if he tries to come back too quick, he's not blind to what the Panthers are doing here.
He doesn't want to lose his job again like he did last year to Rico Dowdle.
But if he tries to come back too quick, he retweaks the hamstring injury and then it's just back to the Jonathan Brooks show.
So I understand the concerns about Brooks where again, the torn ACLs, he has not played that much at the NFL level.
But when he has been, I've been encouraged by what we've seen from him in the preseason and during the NFL regular season.
With how he's been used in the first preseason game, he played 80% of the snaps of the starters that suggest to me, hey, this is a guy that's going to probably play the majority of snaps for his offense.
And he's a pass catcher.
Again, talking about the running backs that were concerned about how do they beat their ADPs?
They're receiving threats.
He has run 13 routes, not that much combined between the NFL regular season and preseason.
He has four targets on 13 routes.
That's a 31% target rate.
Look at Bryce Young can't see over his office alignment.
He's going to be checking in.
it down to his running back out of the backfield and that is mr jonathan brooks so i get that
there's some concerns about the panthers offensive line it did not look good in the preseason but
they also didn't have their starting guards so i do think that they'll be okay and they do have
some depth at tackle just in case they don't get any of their main guys back they did address that
in the draft and through a free agency i mean he's only 23 years old and understanding that
the season-long schedule is tough for jonathan brooks it's not tough in week one against the
bears right like like we're gonna see potentially jonathan brooks victory laps all over the place
if he has a monster week one against chicago bears and maybe it's a sell high opportunity
it's like all right i can get like a stud running back for one good game of jonathan brooks
great maybe he's a player we're talking about as a sell high after week one but
i think that he's definitely a player that every draft i go into i'm thinking okay where does this
home site platform have jonathan brooks in adp and i would draft him
one round ahead of where he's going because i think that the sites still have him buried which
is why we're seeing it's still so low here and why ecr maybe isn't catching up so that's kind
of my approach with jonathan brooks i think that he should be part of your draft plan but just be
price sensitive and figure out okay where am i drawing the line where will i not i'm not going
to draft jonathan brooks from round four okay that's not happening for me but round six yeah
like i'm okay with taking him there i think that you should go through the exercise as well trying
to figure out okay where am i comfortable bringing jonathan brooks up which running back tier because
especially if you go receiver heavy i think he fits some of these wide receiver heavy builds
as a running back can get in the middle rounds really interesting note um because i completely
agree with you on the receiving side his real-time adp and ppr full ppr is lagging it's actually at
33 it's gone up but it is lower than the half ppr maybe some to like you know predominant amount of
people the new standard is like half ppr but in where he could thrive in a full point per reception
he is three spots lower than what they are
so interesting ecr versus adp debates and i'd love to hear from people below as well in your
level of comfort the rise of jonathan brooks what level of comfort do you have in drafting
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the next great video and you can claim your prize let's jump to wide receivers ecr versus adp there's
a couple big crazy ones in this one and let's start with ecr 21 versus ecr 24 there's almost
a push of this guy being pushed out of the top uh two wide receivers it's terry mclaurin ecr is 21
adp is 24 this is probably the most gentle of the wide receivers we're going to talk about uh justin
let's go with you here ecr versus adp what side are you on with terry mclaurin if you had talked
to me a couple weeks ago before stefan digs showed up there i would have said ecr and i even had him
higher than that in my rankings now that digs is there he does get bumped down a little bit it is
legit target competition i have met wide receiver 23 so i will go with the adp side i still think
there is a shot for him to have a really good season coming out of that range and you just go
back to two years ago right he had target competition back then as well and he's not
as well debo samuel was a little bit younger was still a good player now i think debo's kind of
past his prime and those days are over um but you had zach ertz there you had other guys in the
offense and yet terry mclaurin had this monster season you know our wide receiver 14 and fantasy
points per game over 1100 yards we could see something like that from him again the defense
in washington is terrible this team is going to be in a lot of shootout scripts we're going to see
these receivers put up uh pretty good points here
so i like him but i think people need to react to bump him down a little bit there's a lot of
good receivers in that range and we'll talk about some more of them here coming up a lot of good
receivers in that area the draft but mclaurin still somebody that i'm targeting digs also
somebody that i think you should be targeting because he's a good player and because that
washington offense is going to just throw the ball so much we just did a standard mock draft
on pros it'll be out soon and we were all just talking about how adps and and most sites are
just not caught up to the value of stephanie
dig still every single time i ever see him get taken in the last two weeks everyone's we're all
like oh man like what a great it's because it's just like people have not queued him up and he's
always a good value interesting fact is the real-time adp is actually with mclaurin up uh so
again i'm just pointing out if you look at our adp page on fantasy pros there's the adp which is
taking aggregates from the sites and then there's a real-time adp which is just uh snapshots of of
a smaller time range he is he's adp 24 but his adp in real time has moved up to 24 and that's
22 we're still getting his 24 as the marker but weirdly going in a different direction erickson
ecr versus adp where you at with terry mclaurin i'm also on the adp side with the commander's
number one wide receiver you mentioned the addition of stephan digs i think that maybe
chica conco is still not getting enough credit for maybe being an upgrade from zach ertz i think
that he could probably command more targets potentially than zach ertz can especially
considering they paid him a hefty chunk of money to come in as their additional pass
again we were shouting for the commanders to add another wide receiver to help jayden daniels
they added a tight end that catches passes so i do think that he's going to factor into this
passing game as well and just looking at terry mclaurin's body of work he has that one season
where he scored a bunch of touchdowns the rest of his body of work is okay this guy's been a really
solid fantasy wide receiver too i think that's more likely the outcome with him which is why i like him
a little bit closer to his adp and then the biggest factor for me which actually caused me to move him
actually the injury to laramie tunsil the starting offensive tackle for the washington commanders
when i look at what he can do as a pass protector he buys time for jayden daniels now obviously
jayden daniels can obviously buy time with his legs but in terms of okay them dialing up long
passing plays that's where terry mclaurin thrives as a vertical downfield threat but now okay if the
pass protection is not as good does that create more underneath opportunities for players like
jayden daniels that's where i think he's going i think he's going to be able to do a lot of things
he's not going to be able to do a lot of things he's going to be able to do a lot of things he's
going to be able to do a lot of things he's going to be able to do a lot of things he's going to be
able to do a lot of things he's going to be able to do a lot of things he's going to be able to do
a lot of things he's going to be able to do a lot of things he's going to be able to do a lot of things
so i think that yes he is a number one on his team but it's not to the extent that oh he's a
dominant alpha wide receiver that is not terry mclaurin he's also 31 coming off an injury
plague season does he get hampered by injuries again so for those reasons i'm also closer to
the adp here a couple other things that i i want to mention real quick real quick that i'll mention
with him we're going to write off last year of course like all the injuries that he had and
jayden daniels only played three games together really so that doesn't even factor into my mind
and what i'm interested in with him this year is they bring in a new oc and david blau and he's
actually talked about moving mclaurin around the formation a little bit more which you always want
to hear when you're talking about receivers and them potentially getting more work so i agree
with you erickson but i think there's a possibility that in this new
offense he does get some more maybe schemed up stuff and put into positions where he's getting
some easier targets as opposed to all that stuff downfield one of the positives for the next guy
is exactly what you just said a guy that we're excited because he could get moved around working
into that z spot move around on the offense could be a big plus it's a mecca egg bucca there's a lot
to this one there's a lot of weird changes i mean there's a little injury thing that um
just this one ecr versus adp is a bigger gap ecr is 23 now again
the top 20 rankers have him as the 23rd wide receiver his adp though it two days ago by the
way it was 16 that's moved to 18 the real-time adp is slightly adjusting to 19 so things are
closing up there was a seven positional gap between where the top ecr guys had him ranked
and where he was going in drafts that's closed down to five it's closing into four so our
official number is ecr 23 versus adp of 18 and we're going to talk a little bit more about that
team a mecca egg bucca erickson ecr adp i'm on the adp side and this is how it's been all off season
as i've kind of kept tabs on where egg bucca has been market price the market has been higher on
egg bucca than the consensus rankings for the most part and i think that the market really likes the
upside case of a bucca and what we saw in the beginning of last year and that's what i like
buying into as well when he was healthy he was a lock to win offensive rookie of the year like he
was going to win that award then we saw all the injuries and we saw all the injuries and we saw
all the injuries to the buccaneers receivers now he's dealing with an injury so i think that has
caused his adp to fall closer to the ecr but if he's healthy i think that he beats wide receiver
23 so that's why i would go with the adp side yeah that's like two in the last i think seven
days two spots uh positionally he's gone down probably with the toe thing so mr justin boone
ecr versus adp for a mecca egg bucca i'm just a little more worried i know a lot of the injury
analysts are out there saying that the type of toe injury it is
he'll be out there week one and it shouldn't impact him much but man a toe injury for a
receiver sounds so scary to me on top of the usual like injury stuff like i was talking about before
where you can have you know other injuries coming from it or aggravations or all that kind of thing
but a receiver who needs to change direction a foot injury a toe injury always worried about that
so i'm on the ecr said i've moved him down a bit here i've met wide receiver 22 i know what he did
last year i wanted to be in on him but this is one injury spot where like i'm not going to be in on him
like i'm just kind of scared and it's so easy to tell the story about how good he was early last
season but remember
It was kind of injuries that helped derail his season last year, too.
It was his injury and also like basically everybody on that offense got hurt.
So we can see this offense being one that rebounds this season.
I hope Igbuka is healthy.
If he is, he's going to crush me on this one.
But I have just moved him down because I'm so worried about that specific injury for a receiver.
All right.
Our next wide receiver that we're going to jump into has the biggest gap is the biggest gap of any of the players that we're going to talk about.
With an ECR of 32 versus an ADP of 22.
Now, one little caveat I want to throw into this because you guys know I'm doing the ECR of the top 20 rankers.
If we expand to the entire ECR, which is what anybody that goes to the list is going to see.
You're going to just see the full ECR unless you do the little drag downs.
He's 27.
So 22 versus 32 versus, you know, 27.
There's a whole lot of gaps that are in here.
So ECR versus ADP, Mr.
Justin Boone, DJ Moore.
What side are you on?
I am a Bills fan.
If anyone doesn't know that so that we can factor that in here, my below bias.
I am on the side of ECR, I guess, mathematically, though.
Maybe I'm right in the middle here, to be honest.
I want to be excited about him.
But this is the one where let's go back to like the Terry McLaurin thing we were talking about.
This range of receivers.
And it kind of runs from like round three, round four, all the way to around six, round seven.
There are a ton of good receivers in there.
Guys that I want to target.
DJ Moore is one of them.
He can still get it done.
Like this guy is a good player.
He's 29 years old.
He's still got some gas left in the tank here.
And I know we fell out of favor in Washington or in Chicago for a variety of reasons.
But last year down the stretch, we still saw him pop up three top seven weekly fantasy finishes in the second half of the season.
And he's.
He's been that top target in an offense before, right?
Had over 90 catches in three of his last five seasons.
So you're pairing him with Allen, with Joe Brady, who he has a history with.
I think we're going to get another good year out of DJ Moore.
I see the upside case for him.
I don't know.
I guess because I'm in the middle, I can go either way on it.
So I, the hopeful side of me wants to say I'm with ADP though.
I have not been taking him in that range at all.
I have taken him when he falls more.
More to wide receiver 27, because I do think the bills are still going to spread things around and yet they haven't had a receiver like him since digs a receiver that they can look at and be that playmaker for them.
I think he's going to come in and get a lot of work.
That's what we've seen so far in practices.
So the hopeful side of me, and again, put a little caveat, little asterisks on there because I'm a bills fan.
Um, but I think he's somebody you should be targeting.
I'm just not willing to pay up the wide receiver 22.
Price.
Well, it's interesting.
So then you're kind of like the East.
Cause again, backtracking it 32 is the ECR for the top 20 most accurate rankers from last year, but the full ECR with everybody who's ranking right now is actually 27 and his ADP is still 22.
So the biggest gap is 10 between the top 20 rankers and ADP, but the middle side, which you obviously live in, I think you would take that is the 27 there.
So Erickson, same thing for you.
Huge gap here.
You don't get, you're not going to get to play the middle side here.
You got to just take ECR or ADP.
This is the biggest difference we have of any player on this one.
I mean, you're not going to get to play the middle side here, but you're not going to get to play the middle side here.
22. I know why the ECR the top 20 is bringing him down because Fitzy is definitely low on DJ more. We talked about him on players that will lose your leagues and Fitzy mentioned DJ more as one of those players. So I think that is holding some weight here. I couldn't go that far as to looking at DJ more in that lens because body of work six of the last seven seasons wide receiver 22 or better. So similar to Terry McLaurin besides that one outlier season with the Bears when he was I think
a top 10 receiver with Justin Fields. He's mostly been like a steady fantasy wide receiver too. And then last year obviously things kind of fell off with him being phased out of the Ben Johnson offense. So I agree with Boone where I still think he has gas left in the tank and something that interesting that they noted on the athletic podcast. Robert Mays was talking to one of the bills reporters the mantra and Boone it correctly if I'm wrong here the mantra this offseason hasn't been everybody eats like they actually haven't said that nearly as much and what
what's changed right. It's like a chicken to the egg conversation. Well everybody eats when you don't have a number one guy. Well you get the number one guy and all of a sudden oh well it's not everybody eats anymore. It's we feature our best players. Those are the guys that get the ball the most. So I'm leaning more on the optimistic side a little bit here with DJ more full disclosure. He's not necessarily like I have to have DJ more in all my drafts. I don't view him through that lens but it's like hey I'm looking for a wide receiver. He's on the board. He's in the conversation for me because it's still a new quarterback wide receiver
pairing that always invites an extra layer of risk because we just don't necessarily know how they will gel. But in terms of the skill set and projecting them DJ more is a perfect fit for what this offense has been lacking with Josh Allen. So I do think that ultimately he offers a floor that's probably not being recognized enough at wide receiver 32. I think that he's going to be a top 30 wide receiver. So that's why I push back against the ECR. And I mean if we're just putting it in the most simplest of terms he's playing with the best quarterback of his career. And if you just looked at that last year with George
Pickens going to Dallas that's all you needed. And he was a mega smash hit because he was playing with Dak Prescott. So ultimately I'm going to have to side with ADP here. Okay. I was right in the middle. I like that you both win ADP. You both went on the higher side of it. The tricky part to help explain my situation with him is I just really like the guys ahead of him as well. I have Christian Watson just ahead of him Parker Washington Jamison Williams. So it's hard for me to move him up even though I want to. And that's why the solution is hit running back heavy. And then when you get to
this range of the draft just keep hitting these receivers. Yeah I don't I don't disagree with that whatsoever. Very good strategy point. One more wide receiver we're going to talk about. This is a big difference. And this is the difference between this wide receiver being a startable wide receiver in a three wide receiver core and not 30 to 38 is Cortland Sutton. Very divisive guy this year. I know Debra loves Cortland Sutton. His ECR is at 30 but his ADP is 38. There's a huge gap. But I'm
because we're seeing it in the opposite direction. Sometimes ADP is going ahead. The top 20 accuracy
accurate rankers have him as a 30th wide receiver but people aren't touching it. It is outside the
top 36. Erickson why don't you kick us off here. Cortland Sutton ECR or ADP. I'm on ADP side and
it feels like it might be a mistake because I know what Cortland Sutton can offer an offense. But
when I just look at the numbers from last year and this is not even considering the fact that
they bring back.
All the same receivers I had in the team last year and then you're adding Jalen Waddle to the fold
after they traded a first round pick to get him. Sutton was not an alpha last year. Sub 20 percent
target share 60 receiving yards per game. A lot of his production came with touchdowns. He had 19
red zone targets which ranked top five in the NFL. But I just don't think the volume is going to be
nearly as much as it was last year when you're throwing in a player like Jalen Waddle into the
NFL. So I'm not going to be eating into Cortland Sutton's targets routes last year and the reports
at training camp are Pat Bryant is going to be potentially doing that this season as a second
year player. So I just got concerns about Cortland Sutton not being able to sustain what he did last
year against fiercer target competition before the week 12 by week last year. He was outside the top
30 wide receivers and points per game. His yards per route run have dropped for three consecutive
seasons. He's going to be 31 years old. So to me it's you know it's going to be a lot of work to
Yes. Can he beat wide receiver 38 probably. But is he going to be a locked and loaded top 20 guy like
he was last year. I mean 124 plus targets back to back seasons has not finished higher than wide
receiver 11. Like that is really strong target volume and it really hasn't paid off in the
ceiling type of outcome that you'd expect from a player seeing that much volume seeing that much
red zone usage that really hasn't happened for Cortland Sutton. So again maybe I'm wrong about
where he actually ends up finishing here. He beats wide receiver 38 but he's going to be
if he finishes wide receiver 30 wide receiver 35 like I think that's more like his real range
of outcomes. So I'm on the side of ADP here. By the way real time has moved him one spot even
lower if you want to look at that. So he's going down to 39. So ECR 30 to real time 39 ECR ADP
Justin. You're not wrong Erickson. I haven't met wide receiver 46. This is a no fly zone. Do not
there unless a bunch of injuries happen around him. And if a bunch of injuries happen you're
just going to get what you had last year which was a guy that barely cracks a thousand yards
has seven or eight touchdowns wide receiver three with like wide receiver two upside if he finds the
end zone. No thank you. Waddle's there. Waddle is the number one. That's how they're talking.
Pat Bryant's coming on to take over as the number two guy. This offense threw a ton last season
and Sutton only put up those numbers. So now he's got legit target competition.
Not somebody that I want. And when you think about the other receivers in that range I would
take Stefan Diggs over him. I would take Chris Godwin over him. I would even much rather go
after a couple guys in the rookies that have been falling a little bit in ADP and Jordan Tyson and
Mackay Lemon because their injuries. I'd rather take those guys knowing they're probably going to
start slow and just hope that when they're healthy and when they get going this season
they can give you more than Sutton can because the ceiling is
not there uh the full ecr of him by the way is 36 hope everybody's falling i know i'm throwing a lot
like real-time adp and top 20 accuracy and stuff but the actual just like blanket ranks ecr is 36
but that's still a top starting wide receiver in the three wide receiver format it's a very
interesting conversation around courtland sutton uh and i feel like it's become divisive but i just
thought it was so fascinating that the higher accuracy people for at least from last year
had sutton so high so take that for what it is on where you guys are at uh we are going to do a
quarterback and a tight end one but before we do whether you are fully prepped for your drafts or
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part of the entire season not the most stressful part all right quarterback in tight end for the
last two here you guys don't have to go nuts with it but this one i i thought again with like
staring at like the fascinating part of like where people are drafting versus what ecr is
matthew stafford at quarterback i think is very polarizing
finishing at the top end of quarterbacks last year yet he is ecr 18 at quarterback but adp
he is up there as a starter at 12 so he's being drafted in adp as a starting fantasy quarterback
this season but rankers they don't want him there so justin what do you think ecr versus
adp for matthew stafford this year i think he is 38 years old and i think he had a huge season last
year and it's incredible when you're a pocket passer
like that and you can come through and end up being a top five fantasy quarterback on a per
game basis he's throwing for you know over 4700 yards 46 touchdowns that touchdown total is more
than he had accumulated the two years prior combined are we going to see him get back there
to that like uber elite level in terms of his passing stats i just don't think it's likely
there's concerns with davante adams in my mind he turns 34 in december seem like this off season
they were kind of flirting with some other guys
there was talk that they were in the mix potentially for aj brown there was talk that
they were in the mix for stefan diggs i think they see the writing on the wall father time
is undefeated he will come for us all except for maybe derrick henry who i think is going to play
forever but he is going to eventually start to sap davante adams production a little bit more
and last year even his production was pretty much touchdown based and we know the deal with
quarterbacks right if you're trying to find that qb2 that can get up into the qb1 range
the easier way to do it is by chasing the quarterback and then you're going to have to
be chasing the guys that can run the ball and last year in the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks
nine of them rushed for over 350 yards if you're not one of those guys you have to have this
incredible season through the air and expecting that stafford at that age with his injury history
with an offense that like you you can call it like a house of cards right you pull out one
piece if there's an injury and all of a sudden it's not the same offense i'm just concerned
and i don't think there's a real good shot that he's going to get back to anywhere near that
range or even potentially the top 10 they're like one glass door away from being a really bad
offense so completely agree just keep them safe please couple notes this is one of those instances
where the the top 20 accurate ecr people have him the lowest because his overall ecr when you put
everybody is actually 15 so 18 for the top 20 guys overall ecr he's 15 adp he's 12 looking we
take a multitude of of of sources and sites uh for adp by the way yours yahoo you guys are the
lowest on matthew stafford so that tracks but there is a there is a site that has him eight
overall so inside the top 10 so i'm just giving you lots of stuff that are ranking out there so
ecr versus adp erickson you've been pumping your fists like you're loving this negative talk here
so i feel like you're going to be on the ecr side but ecr or adp quarterback is so deep this year
there's no reason to draft matthew stafford in any way shape or form and take on all the
risk that justin moon just outlined with him career high 7.7 passing touchdown rate last season
part of that was because they were spamming red zone targets to davante adams to get matthew
stafford the mvp award that's just not going to be part of the recipe this year in 2026
i also think the rams defense is significantly better than it was last year i don't think the
rams feel like they need to win because stafford's going to be throwing for 404 touchdowns every
season i think that they went out and proved their defense so that stafford doesn't have to
shoulder as much of the load like he did last year when he won the mvp so i think that again going
back to how deep quarterback is when i'm ever doing my quarterback rankings i i'm moving guys
up and down i'm like i like this guy i like this guy the one guy that i always find myself never
liking to draft in any capacity is matthew stafford we got to get a tight end here there
wasn't a ton of crazy variants but i did find this one interesting this the ecr
adp is more about one thing it's about a starting tight end fantasy or not the ecr is 13 the adp is 11
and it's isaiah likely what side are you on ecr versus adp the real-time adp hasn't really
adjusted so this is about him being a starter erickson final one here isaiah likely ecr non
startable 12 team tight end or startable adp where he is at 11 tight end and fantasy this year i'm
i like isaiah likely a lot still this year i still think that he has a top five type of ceiling we
saw that with baltimore when mark andrews missed games 11 fantasy points per game that would have
been equivalent to the tight end five in points per game last season and i know there was a lot
of gloom and doom about isaiah like these usage in the first preseason game for the giants when
theo johnson was playing more overall snaps than he was but when i looked at it i was really
encouraged by it they had seven total dropbacks with the starters between the first two games
jackson dart and jamis winston on the first two drives isaiah likely ran six routes on seven
dropbacks that's 86 percent route participation that is elite for a fantasy tight end more
importantly isaiah likely had two targets both of which came on third down who did the giants
lose last year big receiver wandale robinson or not a big receiver but a big target receiver
he was their guy on third downs he was jackson dart's guy on a lot of those third down conversions
and at least so far what we've seen in the preseason
during training camp is that dart and likely have developed a lot of chemistry especially
with malik neighbors not participating fully in team drills and joint practices well
isaiah likely he's been out there every single day catching passes from his quarterback i also
was encouraged that he's running a lot of his routes from the slot as well so you get isaiah
likely big slot sizzin so for me i think that he's going to be dark's check down option and
if neighbors is just not all the way back especially the first month of the season i think
is a really really good pick especially as a late round tight end that can actually be a
difference maker in your lineup so i'm going with the adp here quick question i'm going to throw at
you guys what do you think there are more of people having likely ranked inside the top eight
at tight end or people having him not as a top 20 tight end what do you think is more likely to
start with you erickson not as a top people have them outside the top 20 yes what which one is
which one do you think there's more of non-top 20 tight which one's more likely
eight or top eight um it's got to be top eight yeah i think there's enough to be bullish i think
i would probably do that yeah you guys are incorrect there are more people that do not
have isaiah likely as a top 20 tight end than there are that have them as a top eight that is
in the individual rankers on fantasy pros so throwing it to you boone i'm gonna guess you
are you gonna buy adp here well have they not updated since january or something because i
situation for him is exciting i had him a little bit higher around that that same range as erickson
when we thought neighbors might start the season a little bit slower i think now we can feel a
little more confident that neighbors even if he does get off to a slow start is gonna be out there
closer to what we've seen his peak be in the past so that caused me to bump likely down just a bit
but he's in a pack it's really like him and dallas goddard are the last two guys that i am confident to
draft as my tight end one i have met tight end 13 right now but you could flip those guys either
way in my mind the way i'm approaching tight end this year is you know try to get an elite guy if
you can get them at a decent value i really like tyler warren who in my mind could be elite but
is a little bit cheaper as long as this injury this groin injury is okay if not tucker craft
or george kittle try to get the injury discounts there and if not those guys then you grab from
this last pack of dalton kinkade or goddard or likely so i still really
like him i'm you know a little bit further down i guess by a couple spots than erickson
but i'm confident that he's gonna have a good season as the de facto number two receiver for
the giants you know and fun thing this is uh that's hidden in this episode if you guys like
kind of read through it there's a always a heavy amount of conversation of like you know screw adp
get your guys yeah get your guys absolutely and in this instance this is kind of a conversation
about the experts if you want to use air quotes if you're that type of person that needs air quotes
that experts are differing from ADP.
So you as a listener,
listener can do the same thing this is a conversation around being comfortable with
your guys regardless of what adp is saying you can create your own cheat sheets at fantasy pros
you can pick a couple people whatever it is maybe you're really really great at this and
you all your study don't be afraid to go with your rank over what adp is telling you that's
what this conversation is about but we're just having kind of a macro level of it by using ecr
and by using you know one of the most accurate rankers in the land justin boone justin boone
you can follow him on twitter check him over at yahoo sports him and harman a plus in the land
uh boone we really appreciate your time my friend i i appreciate you guys got a chance to hang out
with erickson at the fantasy expo this year we had a great time hopefully we'll get to do that
every year and yeah anytime you guys need a guest you always know i'm happy to jump on
we appreciate you man and if you guys want to hang out with uh the rest of the fantasy pros
crew and more august 26 3 p.m eastern it is fantasy pros fantasy fest you can join
us and we'll see you next time bye
tons of guests where we're talking rankings tears sleepers bus league winners we're going to be mock
drafting we've got giveaways and we've even got an after party on our twitch where you guys can do
more mock drafting with us and hopefully you do it erickson's going to be there me and erickson
aren't paired together but there's going to be a bunch of big great fantasy pros people i think
it's me and deborah a whole bunch but come and check us out august 26 live on our youtube
youtube.com slash fantasy pros 3 p.m eastern august 26 that is going to do it 80 adp versus
ecr you guys let us know in the comments what
sides you are on we'd love to hear from you for andrew erickson and justin boone i'm chris welsh
good luck in your drafts and we'll talk to you next time right here on fantasy pros thanks for
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to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The episode compares Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from the top 20 most accurate rankers, including guest Justin Boone, against Average Draft Position (ADP) to identify discrepancies.
For Breece Hall, both hosts and Boone side with ECR (RB14) over ADP (RB17), citing upside, age, and improved Jets offense, despite injury and committee concerns.
Rhamondre Stevenson is favored over Travon Henderson by all, with Henderson ranked lower than ADP due to Stevenson’s superior performance and coaching staff trust.
Jonathan Brooks is viewed as a rising value, with ADP (RB35) higher than ECR (RB39); hosts support ADP, citing clear path to lead back role and receiving upside.
Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore see ADP slightly higher than ECR; hosts lean ADP, noting target competition and new offenses, but remain cautious.
Courtland Sutton is a major discrepancy
Matthew Stafford is ranked lower by ECR (QB18) than ADP (QB12); hosts prefer ECR, citing age, touchdown regression, and improved Rams defense.
Isaiah Likely is supported at ADP (TE11) over ECR (TE13), with hosts bullish on his chemistry with QB and slot usage.
Summary:
In this fantasy football podcast episode, hosts Chris Welsh and Andrew Erickson are joined by Justin Boone, last year’s most accurate ranker, to compare Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) from the top 20 most accurate experts against Average Draft Position (ADP). They analyze several players across positions, focusing on discrepancies to guide draft decisions. For running backs, they support Breece Hall at ECR over ADP, citing his youth and upside despite injury risks, while favoring Rhamondre Stevenson over Travon Henderson due to Stevenson’s superior play and trust from the Patriots.
Jonathan Brooks is seen as a value at ADP, with hosts optimistic about his path to lead back and receiving role. At wide receiver, Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore are viewed as slightly overdrafted, but hosts still lean ADP, while Courtland Sutton is a major fade—both hosts prefer ADP, citing Jalen Waddle’s arrival and Sutton’s declining efficiency. For quarterback, Matthew Stafford is avoided at ADP due to age and regression concerns, with hosts favoring ECR.
Finally, Isaiah Likely is supported at ADP, with hosts highlighting his chemistry with the quarterback and slot usage. The episode emphasizes trusting your own rankings over market trends, using tools like FantasyPros’ draft assistant to build personalized cheat sheets.
FAQs
ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) are average rankings from fantasy experts, while ADP (Average Draft Position) reflects where players are actually being drafted. The debate compares expert rankings to market draft trends to find value or overvalued players.
Justin Boone is a fantasy football ranker for Yahoo Sports who was the most accurate in-season ranker last year. He joins the hosts to discuss differences between expert consensus rankings (ECR) and average draft position (ADP).
FantasyPros allows users to filter ECR to see the consensus of the top 10 or top 20 most accurate rankers from the previous year, rather than all rankers. This provides a more refined expert ranking.
Experts are higher on Breece Hall due to his elite receiving upside and bounce-back potential with an improved Jets offense. The ADP is lower due to recency bias from underwhelming recent seasons and injury concerns.
The RB dead zone refers to rounds 3-6 where running backs are drafted but often carry significant risk or red flags. It's a range where many fantasy managers prefer to target receivers or other positions instead of reaching for uncertain running backs.
Experts rank Courtland Sutton lower (ECR 30) than his ADP (38) because of increased target competition from Jalen Waddle and Pat Bryant, declining yards per route run, and age (31). His production last year was heavily touchdown-dependent.
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