Earnings and the War Guide the Market 4/13/26

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Half-Time Report, the podcast, the most profitable hour of the trading day. You record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks so much. Welcome to the Half-Time Report. I'm Scott Wapner, front and center of this hour. The new and very busy week in the markets, earnings and the war. On investors' minds, we will discuss and debate with the investment committee as always. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Ternovus. Stephanie Link, Jim Lavinthal from Talking Tent. Check the markets here. Open lower, as you know, we've turned around, though. We're basically flat on the S&P, Nasdaq's green, Russell's green, dows down about one half of 1%. And I have to say, guys, the plethora of notes that are out today, the ones that I've seen anyway, are like 90% skewed positive. So you've got Edgar Denney sticking with her call at the S&P bottomed on March 30th, 7700 on the S&P. Dick Wilson, Morgan Stanley, much of the adjustment for geopolitical risk, private credit concerns and AI disruptions already taken place already in the market. Mateco over at JP Morgan Markets could show more weakness, but we stick with the view that if one has a longer time horizon, 3, 6, 12 months, one should be using the weakness to buy. In other words, buy the dip V-shape. RBC, near-term, fragile, foggy bottom, but bottom. So what do you think? I don't think any of us suggested when the market was trading with that heightened sense of urgency in early March that that was going to be a major inflection point. We thought we were on the beginning of a precipitous decline, something like we saw in 2022. So I agree in the theory and the perspective that everyone has. I think one of the best dynamics that ultimately has happened in the month of March is when you look at positioning. And if you think of the institutional community, the institutional community leans defensive right now. The systematic community. They are basically carrying a neutral bias, which means they have a limited exposure. And then we did hear about the retail community making a little bit of a bearish turn for the very first time. So I think that setup is one of the reasons why you have the resiliency in front of you right now. At a very rapid advance above the 200 day moving average, you're sitting there. So the theory and the bias of yes, we want to be long the markets in place. But I think you still have to rebuild positioning and that bodes well further upside the near term. Buies the market, maintain this resiliency because it obviously believes that earnings are more important than oil. At least right now, it's trying to look past the whole situation stuff with oil and it is focused on earnings and the economy, kind of like you have been. Yeah, I've been buying since the since March beginning of March to be fair, not the bottom for sure. You know, better be lucky than smart. But I do think, yeah, the economy has been so resilient and led by the consumer and the labor market to me has calmed down. We were so worried about the labor market softening. And while it's cooled down from the highs, certainly is solid. There's one job available in this country for one unemployed person. Do you believe? Do you believe what I said? Do you agree with that? Is it true? Is that the reason why the market looks like it does? It's more focused on earnings and the economy than the war and oil. And I start with the economy because that's going to impact earnings. So yes, to answer your question short, yes, absolutely. We care more about the economy hanging in there, led by 70% of the economy is consumer. So we can't have that fall apart. Sure, there's problems with inflation. I got it. But they have jobs and wages are growing 4%. And spending is growing 4%. And savings is growing 4%. All that is leading to better than expected earnings and expect them to be better than expected. And I think you're going to get kind of conservative guidance. It's the first quarter of the new year. It's always conservative. I think you're going to look for opportunities. I don't own Goldman Sachs. And I know we're going to talk about it, but I'd be buying that stock because that was a very good quarter. But what's the most interesting to me is since March 30th, the S&P 500 is up 7.5%. The Dow Jones is up 6%. And the NASDAQ is up 10. If you waited and I have said this many times, if you wait for certainty, you're going to miss some of the easy money to be made. And what I also think is really very interesting too is year to date, the Russell 1000 value is up 5. And the Russell 1000 growth is down 5. And there has been a massive rotation, almost a liquidation in growth in some parts of growth, especially software. Not all but some. And that's really hurting a lot of people. And the psyche, I think, of a lot of people that own growth. I think farmer Jim, in some respects, became jittery Jim. And this whole situation unfolded. I mean, you articulated as much on this program on numerous occasions, it even formulated part of your investing decisions on thinking about-- >> Do you have holdings? >> Yeah, on holdings. Are you in agreement with the Yardeni Wilson, Mateca, RBC idea that brighter skies are ahead and you need to focus on that. If you're always looking up at the sky for rain and it doesn't necessarily come, you're going to miss out on the sunshine. >> I feel good, Scott. I do. And that's appropriate. Bring up the on holdings. You were out Friday. I did add meaningfully to BlackRock. So I'm getting in. If I thought things were worrisome, I wouldn't be making that move. I think we've had great discussions from you, Steph and you, Joe, about the importance of earnings. I would say something that fundamentally the energy market is in much better shape than you might think. And why am I saying that? Because yes, well, West Texas Intermediate is whatever it is right now, I'm not going to look at the screen, $103 a barrel. Brent is cheaper. And you know it's cheaper than either Brent or West Texas Intermediate Omani crude, which shot up to $160 a barrel in the heart of the conflict just a few weeks ago. These are the sort of fundamental esoteria that actually matters. And what it's saying is that the flows of oil and energy products through the street of hormones don't matter as much as they did two weeks ago. Now let's not parse my words too carefully. Of course, they still matter. We're talking about $100 handles. But even if you look at where the most pain has been felt, the most pain has been felt in Dutch natural gas pricing. That's off meaningfully from those highs. And what it's saying is workarounds are being felt. Now maybe for the same reason. And I'm not just going to continue talking about earnings. You already did that. That was fabulous. But if you look at things that have also perplexed us, worry dust, things like high yield spreads, those have come down. You go back to January and the Bank of America high yield index was about 265 basis points over treasuries. It's shot up to 342 in the middle of March. Where is it now? 284. That is a meaningful decline. And what I'm telling you is when you lift the hood and really look at the pieces of the fundamental engine, there are things that are going right in addition to earnings. I'm going to guess that there are a few people at least out there who are listening to a lot of this and saying, man, these people are too complacent. They're in denial about what is actually happening within the middle east. The risk at this point is that it gets a little worse before it gets better. If you believe the rhetoric and some of the on the ground dealings, they're a lack of an agreement over the weekend, what's going to happen with this blockade in the straight? I feel like I know it. I know there are people out there who are channeling that. The market is telling you, I mean, to be up today, I'm sorry, Joe, for the S&P to be green on the news we got yesterday. I mean, anybody who's an investor or a trader will look at that and tell you, up on bad news is a sign. Don't give in. Don't give in here. Okay, so, Brynn, you channel those that I just mentioned or you an agreement with those on the desk and the Yardenis and Wilson's and Matechas and gosh knows there's others out there who are just as positive on this market here. Well, I try to be pragmatic and I think that investors need to take right now as a learning point that history shows us and this shows us right now that markets adapt very quickly to the fogs of war. And so I think we've adapted very quickly. I think on top of that, if we have talked about yields, the 10 year seems very well anchored around 430. Really hasn't moved. I think that's another big signal. We're well above the 200 day, which you know, that was really my biggest concern is that we were going to stay under that 200 day for more than a month. We're well above that. I think strategically talking about the war, the US blockading now, the street is very smart tactically because China buys 85 to 90% of Iranian oil. And so if we have a full blockade, then that prevents that. And I've said all along, I think that China can be the player here to end this because they do need that oil. Trump said, we're going to charge them a 50% tariffs to try to say, hey, do not give the Iranians any missile defense. I think probably that works. And I will say on earnings, earnings are strong. What's interesting though, this quarter though, is micron and Nvidia are going to be 50% of the total growth this quarter in S&P earnings. So we're still very concentrated. I think that's why you can't count technology out because almost all of the earnings growth is coming inside of tech. Joe, technically the market's gotten better. Tony P. Gomez. Zach's, Pascarello, head of their hedge fund client coverage says the following, technical factors are supportive. Flows, seasonals, the quiddity, but they constitute a guarantee of nothing when the trading environment is this fickle. I suspect that earnings will be in that positive. So he believes that you're at 15% year over year earnings growth. Again, it goes back to how we began the conversation. The market obviously is more focused on the Pascarello perspective than whatever is fluctuating in the world's energy markets. And the anticipation is, as you go through the course of 2026, the earnings growth actually will rise closer to 20%. So to Brent's point, to my earlier point, the bond market is calm. Steph mentioned before the relationship between growth and value equal weight, S&P 500, 100%. I'm in total agreement, and I want the S&P to be equally to perform well. But since the March 30th, intraday low for the S&P 500, about 63, 16, growth is outperforming value by about 8% S&P. And you want to see that because that's confirmation that we're seeing positioning go back to where the market first saw the reduction in the positioning and the challenges and the concern. And the market is validating where they believe that they will find the more reliable earnings growth. >> Yeah, but I think the debate that needs to be had between you and Steph, because it sounds to me like you're making the case that you think that the makeup of the market has changed. The war has changed it back to now a more growth-oriented environment from what was working before, which is why you had the broadening, which is why Steph can read off the stats she did about value outperforming growth. >> I hear you making a case that you think that's going to be the new normal now. >> Whereas I think Steph is trying to make an argument that she thinks we're going back to the broadening story. >> But yet, you know, it's the most interesting in this down draft. The most names that I've bought has been in technology. Some hardware, some semi, some software getting hit there for sure. That's not an easy play, but I do like the valuations there. So I think it's not all or nothing, Scott. I think we find sectors, we find stocks where profits are going higher because I think it's as simple as stocks follow profits on the way up and on the way down. And that's one of the reasons why we did so well these last three years. Yes, I know the last three years. It was very concentrated. It doesn't matter. Earnings were going high. But as a result, I think this year is the same, but maybe the makeup is a little bit different. It's broader because the economy is doing better. >> Right, but you can either. >> But yeah, go, go, go, go, go, go. >> So I feel like you're making the case. You wouldn't have brought up the stat of value out over growth. >> But maybe you didn't think that value that that's how it was going to continue. It may be some of the software and technology names that I'm buying actually are values, Scott. That's the whole point. >> No, no, man. >> Growth that has become value, I think is, so I think what's important to understand is we've recalibrated the valuation on the technology growth story for sure. Just look at the Mag 7. The forward multiple went from 30 to 24. So you have that recalibration in terms of valuation. A lot of these technology growth names look far more appealing. I do think in the near term, you are going to continue to see a rebuilding first and foremost in positioning for growth growth. >> Okay, how about that? >> I think you'll see that. >> Let's also say, look, I mean, there's a big story here that we're not talking about. We all know it. The whole AI food chain. That's not going away from a war. In fact, it's increasing for security purposes, but the food chain being data center power grid. We talk about it all the time. And that's not changing. In fact, it's accelerating. And that's a big driver of the value trade. Industrials are benefiting. Financials are benefiting. There's a lot of industries that are benefiting from that theme. And that has only accelerated. >> Let me just try another statistic in because it backs up what you said about where valuations have compressed to. Torsten Slokitapolo says today valuations are back to the pre-AI boom levels. They've compressed from 40 times to 20 times as a sector. People seem before this whole AI boom happen. That's probably playing a large role as to why growth has outperformed recently because there was such a valuation correction. At the same time where I think people have a more confident and consistent view of where the earnings growth is going to come from, albeit Brin mentions two stocks in particular that may make up the largest portion of it. It's still coming from that area within the market rather than from others that are more directly tied to the cyclical nature of the economy. >> Without question, I think that is what we have seen so far in the first several weeks of April. Staffs mentioning the industrials a lot of really strong businesses with great balance sheets and clearly defined as I look at it as quality. But they have also over the last several years become more growth oriented. We took a position in train technologies in October of 2023. It's speaking to exactly what you're identifying the AI infrastructure build out as it relates to cooling for data centers. Well guess what, train technologies, we look at that stock now. We think it's a growth quality. >> Well, it's initiated outperformed today at Evercourt. 535 is the target there and there's also as staff was talking about. There's some calls on the data. The power related play. >> We'll get to those in a bit. >> A bit later. >> The transports are doing quite well too. That's indicative of the economy doing better. That's sick. >> How about this? >> How about this, Stadrin, from Jeffrey's trading desk. Tech Momentum just had its strongest 10-day move in 25 years and the best week since the COVID vaccine was released in December of 2020. Meta posted its best week in some two years. >> Yeah, I think that this setup will, has a high probability of continuing going into the earnings of Meta of Google, of Amazon, maybe Apple, maybe Microsoft because these names have been penalized for CAPEX by the way. That is the reason why these multiples have come down because people question, is the CAPEX spend good? But now at the valuation level you can say, hey, the earnings power is still there. I think these are going to be really strong names to own during this earnings season. I think it's a really good setup and a really good note. >> Goldman kicks things off today. As everybody at this point knows, the stock has been down after their fixed trading revenue was a missed. Stocks down 3%. It's off of the worst levels. B of A reiterates it a buy after the result. They had equity trading. They had record revenue and they had a 48% increase in investment banking fees. You own this name personally. >> Right. >> I've owned this name since April of '24. I will continue to own this name. I hope Steph joins me in owning Goldman Sachs because I think it's going to continue to move higher. If you listen to the call, David Solomon talked about the analyst community who maintained very high expectations for this company rightfully so. Remember how it came into this earnings report as one of the leading financial sector names as one of the leading money center banks. You didn't see significant reduction in terms of sentiment positioning for this company. Now, let's go underneath the service for the earnings. We understand that equity trading was ridiculously strong. JP Morgan reports tomorrow probably going to see a very similar type of dynamic there, strong equity trading. Did anyone think that rates and mortgages was going to be the standout for Goldman Sachs or any of these banks? >> I totally agree with you on that. >> That was the problem. Dig in, do the homework on what the earnings really were. Commodities and currencies were fine. The significant contributor to the underperformance and FIC came from rates and mortgages and that's understandable. >> Mayo at Wells Fargo Security says underlying trends seem unusually strong in investment banking and equity. It's a good beat. May fall short of expectations for great. That's how he characterizes it. You look through the Goldman to others and you come away with what when you own Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley. >> For first and foremost, these stocks of all rallied 10 to 15 percent off of their lows. So a little bit higher expectations, which is never really a great setup. But if you go through advisory of 89 percent, equities of 27 percent, assets and wealth management of 14 percent, those all bowed well for all of the big six banks. I expect Morgan Stanley to do very well, especially on their ROTCE. That was the thing that got my attention with Goldman because it came in at 21.3 percent. That is amazing improvement that they have seen. I think Morgan Stanley had the highest ROTCE last, because his profitability metric. They had the highest one last quarter. I think they're going to continue to see good growth there and that's really very important. I think all of the metrics are very positive for the banks. >> Joe, you've been all over the exchanges trade. Talking about it reasonably early, too. Well, Deutsche is on the bandwagon as they include intercontinental exchange, ICE, parent company of this place, as one of its top picks along with BlackRock and Schwab. >> Relative underperformer when compared to CME. I think CME is up about 11 percent for the year. ICE is basically flat on the year. CBO is up 18 percent. That's another name that I think you're going to have. you want to own, but when you see this continued elevated volatility, when you go out and you read that companies, private companies like Citadel and Jane Street and Hudson River are earning more and a quarterly basis than Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley off of trading, you understand, well, I need to own interactive brokers. I need to own Schwab. I'll say it again with virtue financial approaching $50 as an all time high. You don't have a position there. I have a personal relationship, but it is the one publicly traded market maker that you're able to allocate towards when you see a lot of these private companies earning the revenue that they're earning and the volatility. It's not going away. Anyone think the volatility is going to diminish significantly when it goes back to where we are in 2023 or '24. I don't think so. BlackRock included in the Deutsche Note Jimmy as top picks Schwab, BlackRock and Ice. BlackRock got sold off quite a bit, at least in part because of their HPS subsidiary that bought a few years ago, which has a lot of private credit in it. That's such a small part relative to the overall business that is BlackRock that I saw the opportunity. As I said, I added to that on Friday. Scott, it's not a call on this quarter's earnings. It's a call on BlackRock over the coming years having many pistons in its engine that are going to keep firing the eye shares, the multi asset class, and yes, the private assets as well. Take a look at Oracle. Yes. If we could, it's Fox Good War. Yes, Fox Good War. So, stock is a rip. Today, I guess on some headlines coming out of a summit that they're hosting. The stock's up 10th percent, but software, a lot of the names in here today, Intel's up almost four names like CoreWeave are up 8th and a third. You have some pretty good Microsoft is up. I don't know if you can say that. It's up 2.5%. But you kind of get the point because the stock hasn't traded well. Cyber, Palo's up 3. Crowd strikes up almost 6. Dell's up 5 and a third. Jimmy? I think simply put enough is enough. The software stocks in particular and the software adjacent like in Oracle. They've just been sold down too much. I don't think Oracle is up on the headlines. I mean, I've read the headlines. They're not that interesting. But what I said earlier about high yield spreads does matter. And we know about Oracle's debt position and how much it's increased and the credit default swaps, which are off about 20 basis points over the last few weeks. They're still very elevated. Make no mistake about it. But ultimately enough is enough. And I think this is a delayed reaction to things like open AI, which raised over $100 billion in their latest round, which starts to put to bed some of these fears that it won't be good for the trillion dollars plus of commitment. There needs to be like more than one day's activity for others to believe that enough is enough. Wolf today says the downtrend is alive and well. Bryn Jonathan Khrinsky, BTIG. Let's show up the let's put up the IGV. If we could guys he says 77 is key. So we're a buck above it. 77 was a huge level. He says as long as it's below that, we continue to see risk towards 70. Should they move not so important, not so interesting. We'll see where it closes at the end of closing bill today. If it can stay above that line in the sand, the Khrinsky line in the sand, Bryn Palantir worst week and over a year. It's coming off of that today. How do you see this group? I think well, if you're part of IGV, unfortunately, you're going to get lumped together. Right? So whether you're Microsoft, Oracle, or CrowdStrike, three different companies all lumped together in the IGV. I think Palantir, the thought that Anthropic is a competitor to Palantir, which has been part of the narrative to me, doesn't make any sense whatsoever in the over the next five plus years. And so I think that Palantir needs to settle down though. We talked about this last week. It's still an incredibly expensive stock. And so how do you value the company? And so to me, I still have a small position. I originally bought it at 25, sold some at 45, 75 and 100. And then I have what's left because I do understand and respect the valuations. And so I do think it's going to settle in here. But I don't think that this competitive Anthropic versus Palantir makes any sense because Palantir actually uses all of the AI companies. They're neutral on them. And then we'll use them as they see fit. So I still think from the software company, it's expensive, but they are the original AI company. They have great enterprise. They have great government contracts. So I think once it settles in here, buyers will come back in in spite of the valuation. Joe T, we had a significant reduction in our holding of software at the end of January. We're down to five names. I'm not sure about Microsoft or Oracle. I maintain your perspective where I don't think one day is enough. I agree with Brin on Palantir. That is a name you absolutely want to watch. Steph, you might like Caden's design systems. No, I own synopsis. It's cheaper. It's cheaper. It is 100% cheaper for sure. You have Caden's, right? I have Caden's. I think Caden's, I think Caden's, they both work well in the narrative of the software designed for semis. And then lastly, Brin, you're going to feel great about Zoom. When I tell you, I liquidated Zoom because I had it personally and in the ETF, I liquidated it after earnings. I'd love to get back in. It is the play on anthropic. People don't understand the demand right now is insatiable for clawed. I'm using it myself. If you want a publicly traded mechanism to get some exposure to anthropic, it is through Zoom. All right. We'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll do our top calls. The day got another downgrade for a struggling consumer name, a pair of upgrades in the housing space. We'll trade all of it when we come back. All right. Welcome back. Take a look at shares of Starbucks. If you could, please call on it today from Jeffrey Stock is flat. They raised a target to 92. They had it at 86. They also had an underperform on that name. Can you pull the chart out more please to like, I don't know, three months maybe? I think it's a better perspective on Steph. That made a call on this name, right? A few months back. Can you put that back up? There you go. Thank you. Three months up 7%. Obviously you had a dip late last week. So Jeffries goes to hold from underperform. You had already taken it off underperform and put it on a reasonably strong buy. What did you see? It was down on the year when I was buying it. I just can't believe that that would be the case of Brian Nichol, the CEO running this company. It's now up 14% year to date. So it's been a nice performer. Oh, that's a better chart than let's look year to date. Why do you speak? I think that they're focusing on culture. They're focusing on execution, new products. Therefore, they can get to $4 earnings power by 2028 and 3% sustainable same-store sales. This company has had negative same-store sales for the last couple of years. So I think that we're just beginning to see the turn. The biggest interest to me is the operating margins. I think you can see back to 17, 18% over time. So real operating leverage. Where'd you buy it at? Do you remember? Like ballpark? It was 96 and a half now. Probably in the mid-80s. I think in the mid-80s. OK. OK. No, it was a big call when you made it. And I know you talked about it on CNBC Pro. I did. At the time too. Which was great for everybody to get the perspective at the time of the buy. And then now you see the results. A reasonably short period of time, but nonetheless, up since. Let's say, target goes to 120 from 130 B of A. They still like it. They just take the target down. This has been incredible. This went from a turnaround story, which you know I love, to a transformational potential M&A transaction, which could have pro forma revenues if the combined companies do merge of $21 billion. I know why people don't like the deal, because it's down 25% since they announced. They didn't even announce the deal. They're just talking to each other right now. It's down 25% since then, because people wanted the turnaround. This would be a very big transaction under this fairly new leadership team. I think this would expand their markets, their categories. I think there be lots of synergies as well. So I'm sticking with it. Speaking of fairly new management teams, Brynn, analysts just think that Nike keeps tripping over its own shoelaces. Because it got downgraded again today, this time by HSBC, it's to hold from buy. They had a $90 price target that they've basically taken in half. They're at 48 now. Stocks only 42 and a half. Global outlook for sporting goods remains challenging. Now it's funny, because there's bullishness on Dick's sporting goods, but nonetheless that's what they say. They point to weakness within converse. They point to weakness within China. I think that was underscored in the most recent earnings report. Emerging markets and emerging Asia, EMEA, and sportswear continues to weigh on the business recovery. You sold it back in February. Yeah, we know I had bought Nike and on shoes because I thought the Supreme Court was a high probability would come out and say, well, the tariffs were not legal. Neither stock really moved, and so I moved on because that was the reason why I bought it. Offo has been a complete disaster and if you've bought it your hands are all cut up because it has been truly a falling knife and so I just think that they lack execution they obviously have a great CEO that's trying to turn things around but I always tell our team and my kids you don't have to make it back the same way you looked it I think this is a really tough name to own and there's so many other companies that we've talked about in the first 30 minutes that you can you can add returns to so I don't know why people anchor and on stocks that just seem to be a mess just move on okay William Sonoma up to buy at Goldman price target to 18 from 185 Joey makes sense you really need to hear from them at the end of May when they release their earnings since the prior earnings report stock has kind of moved sideways to lower e-commerce 60 to 70% of their business this is a company that's seeing really strong momentum in pottery bond they need to have an improvement in home and that relates to the one area of the economy that just is the laggard in that topic I see my Modi has our news update today either hey Scott the US military says it struck two boats muggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean killing five people and leaving one survivor the Saturday attack brings a number of people killed in both strikes by the US military to at least 168 since the Trump administration began its crackdown in early September now the US Southern command posted on X saying the boats were traveling along known narco trafficking routes more than 1000 in other news more than 1000 actors and directors releasing a letter opposing paramounts acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery the letter was posted to a website called block the merger and says the deal would decrease job and creative opportunities across the industry it was signed by some big names like Brian Cranston and Matamson and Ben stiller finally Delta Airlines unveiling the first update to its long haul Delta one suites in nearly a decade the sweets will include beds that are three inches longer than the older sweets and will give travelers more leg in the room Delta says updates will debut in 2027 Scott I'll send it back to you all right seeming to that seem a Modi still ahead your ETF edge don't you tells us what is coming out of backdrop not the same as it was last week but it's all right it's all right and there's some rotation happening Scott to your point given all that recent market volatility so are there certain specific areas of the market that are seen relatively higher demand versus others we're going to speak with the CEO of one ETF provider for what investors are rotating in and out of that's coming up next for your ETF edge right here on the halftime report welcome back to the half time before and I'm Dominic Chiu with today's ETF edge now with a breakdown in negotiations in the Iran war investors are now facing protracted impacts on domestic economic conditions so how are ETF investors repositioning joining me now for that conversation is Christian McGoon CEO over at amplify ETFs amplify as a shop Christian that has become known on Wall Street as having a thematic kind of approach or suite of products what exactly are you seeing right now with regard to the market volatility and how investors are moving in and out of the markets yeah definitely a move away from higher beta equity plays like technology looking more at hedge equity plays that kind of can limit some of this volatility during all these headline events we're having right now now when you say hedge equity it's one of those situations where they use options and other derivative activities around portfolios right to kind of buffer movements that's correct so it's using covered calls or maybe dividend paying stocks to give you a cushion of 5 10 15 percent to the equity market but still add to your total return through this income stream now what types of parts of the market are you seeing some of the most activity where our investors gravitating more towards and perhaps a little bit more away from yeah so surprise surprise energies the big winner this year sector wise so we've seen a lot of exposure to hedge energy for example so we have an ETF ended that offers a 10% income stream but also capital appreciation that's been up about 30% this year we're seeing people move away from some of the more volatile technology names simply due to some of the concerns about liquidity fed raising rates or maybe just the economy tipping into recession here with oil prices and one quick point here how much is crypto being affected by the market volatility well it's kind of removing some of the liquidity from crypto and addition the other L word legislation isn't really progressing so that's hurting crypto a little bit seem to be in this chop range of 65 to 75 for Bitcoin all right now we're going to continue this conversation over at ETF edge dot CMBC dot com christian's going to be joined by Jamie Harrison the head of ETF capital markets trading over MFS so keep it on that show scottles and things back over to you don't for the record I was referencing that beautiful Augusta backdrop when I tossed to you I did get to see some of it in person this past week so I will say that you know it is as built it's it's it's it's even more beautiful in person than on TV now it only hope that you stay to bit I don't think you got you coming out we'll give you that trade on health care this a really really big moving stock today have some ripple effects and some other names you want to take a look at we're following that money next all right the pool is in the oval with the president let's listen we agreed to a lot of things but they didn't agree to that and I think they will agree to it I'm almost sure of it I'm in fact I am sure of it if they don't agree there's no deal they'll never be a deal a ran will not have a nuclear weapon and we're going to get the dust back we'll get it back either we'll get it back from them or we'll take it who's president of ours enabled blockade is concerned what's the end game is it before us here on back to the negotiating table is it open up the spray so the gas prices ultimately come maybe everything I mean can both of those things certainly and more we can't let a country black bell or extort the world because that's what they're doing they're really black belling the world we're not gonna let that happen and you know the amazing thing is we don't can you believe this we don't use this right we don't need this we have our own oil and gas much more than we need we have more oil and gas and Saudi Arabia think of this we produce more Saudi Arabia and add Russia to it substantially more and by next year we'll have double that amount so we don't need it but the world needs it and many ships are heading to our country right now as we speak to load up with the best really I guess you could say somebody said the best and sweetest I don't know exactly what sweet is but when it relates to oil it's a good thing but they're coming to our country right now there are many boats coming to our country now it could very well be this is going to be settled before that we've been called this morning by the right people the appropriate people and they want to work a deal they would like to work a deal yeah other countries are gonna also we don't need other countries frankly but they've offered the services we'll let it we'll let it be known probably tomorrow yeah started ten o'clock no I don't because Pope Leo said things that are wrong he was very much against what I'm doing with with regard to Iran and you cannot have a nuclear Iran Pope Leo would not be happy with the end result you have hundreds of millions of people dead and it's not gonna happen so I can't I think he's very weak on crime and other things so I'm not I mean he but he went public I'm just responding to Pope Leo and you know his brother is a big Macapurson and he's a great guy Lewis and I said I like Lewis better than I could pop now you have to have a law and order in our country and that's what we have now we have the lowest crime numbers we've had a long time despite the fact that many criminals were allowed into our country but we've gotten a lot of them out we've done a great job on crime so we have the lowest murder rate in a hundred and twenty five years since 1900 the lowest murder rate so we believe strongly in law and order and he he seemed to have a problem with that so there's nothing to apologize for he's wrong and the other thing is he didn't like what we're doing with respect to Iran but Iran is a wants to be a nuclear nation so they can exterminate the world not gonna happen yeah I don't want to comment on that but it won't be pleasant for them let me put it you know it's going on just right now there's no fighting right now we have a blockade they're doing no business I didn't like seeing boats come out if they were doing business with Iran but if there weren't no boats came out so now they're doing Iran is doing absolutely no business and we're gonna keep it that way very easily don't forget the Navy is gone the real force is gone their anti-aircraft is gone their radar is gone and their leaders are gone it's a lot but we have a very good relationship with China he would like to see this end at all He certainly wants to end it. Everyone, I want to see it end it too, but we can't give a nuclear weapon to a group of people that have caused nothing but havoc for 47 years. Look, I'm the president that's done something about it. This should have been-- and many other presidents regret that they didn't. You know, so I'm doing something about it. Ukraine and the patient documents that were just being classified show that Eric Charanella not only submitted false information but that he had no direct knowledge of the alleged conversation, all here, say to the fuel. Indicated by those-- Yeah, I do. Are there a bunch of crooked people? You're talking about with respect to all of the things that they put against me. Yes. Well, it's come out that in so many different ways. Thank you very much for that question. I appreciate it. But in so many different ways, the election was rigged. The 2020 election was rigged. We found that out. What you just said is just a piece of that. It's a big piece. But minor relatively speaking compared to what they did. They cheated on the election. They cheated on the vote. They cheated in every way possible. And it's the only way we got an incompetent man to be a president. And he was an incompetent. And many of the things that we're talking about, even including this, this would have been settled a long time ago, not now. And it should have been settled by other presidents. But the election was a rigged election. We can't let that happen to our country. Yes, the salement of expulsion is very information for what should happen. Well, it's very serious charge against them and the Democrats. They cheat. They can't get elected with their policies. So their policies no good. They want to have, I mean, open borders. They want to have men playing in women's sport. Do you think that men should play in women's sports? I really don't have an opinion on that. You don't have, but you do. No, no. I'm here about tax on tips. Yeah. OK. Thanks, David. We have to go ahead, please. Thank you, Mr. President. Is it your understanding that pouring this period of time while the US Institute in this naval blockade that oil companies will be able to send their oil tankers through the strait, get more and more out from this area? Yeah, I think they're going to be doing very well there. And I think they're doing very well here. You know, a lot of tankers are coming up here. They're coming in empty and outfult. And we have a great capacity to take care of that business. But we know your name, please. Have you delivered to the White House before? I have not. My name is Sharon Simmons. And are the White House good to be? Do you know? Wait. Potentially. Oh, no. Yes, very. Mr. President, can I ask you something? Thank you. You reminded me of that. Mr. President, why don't you insert-- you previously said that you had no problem with countries of setting fuel to Cuba after previously promising to enter them. What happened? Well, we're going to see with Cuba. But Cuba's another story. Cuba's been a terribly run country for a long time. It's got a bad system. It's been very impressive, as you know. And we have a lot of great Cuban Americans, all of whom just about voted for me. And they were treated very badly. In many cases, family members have been killed. They've been beaten up and mugged and, like, terrible things happened in Cuba. And Cuba's a failing nation. And we're going to do this. And we may stop by Cuba after we're finished with this. But Cuba is a nation that has been horribly run for many years by Castro. You've been raised up by a Supreme Court of Military Bill Coltty. Regarding those two recent referrals for the Tishikates were insurance fraud. Do you know if federal prosecutors have evidence to charge? Well, I don't know. I know she's a very corrupt person. Then you're talking about the so-called attorney general of New York. She's a very corrupt person. That's been proven now. And I know they-- I have nothing to do with it. But they're looking at things all over the place, more than one state concerning her and concerning people like Comey, who's a dirty cop. Comey's a dirty cop. And dirty cops are a bit. I love-- nobody likes the police more than me. Law enforcement more than me. But Comey's a totally dirty cop. And we're not going to stand for it. Yeah. The U.S. seat fight is happening at the White House this summer. The U.S. typically numbers those fights consecutively. For, should they label this one, U.S. 1776? That's a good idea. I'll tell that to Dana White. I like that idea, actually. I will say I've been involved with a lot of big events. I've never had an event that's had more interest in the U.S. I will take it back to the president, still speaking with reporters just outside of the White House there on the situation with Iran. The blockade has started of the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran would like to make a deal, no deal without an agreement on nuclear. Those are the refrains that really matter, certainly to the market at the current time, which, by the way, has green now across the board. Megan Kasella for us is in Washington with reaction to what the president has just said regarding the unfolding events in Iran. Megan? It's got that's right. You hit the highlights there. And I would flag just one more that we hadn't yet heard, which is that he said he'd been called this morning by what he described as the right people, and that they would like to make a deal. So that's the first that we've heard that the president sounds like has been in touch with the Iranians, or at least with mediators this morning, potentially, since that blockade began, and that there could be further movement towards a deal. He did sidestep a question about if there was another round of talks planned, saying, again, just that there had been a call on the nuclear material. He said, we'll get the dust back. Either they'll give it back or we'll take it. So as you mentioned, holding firm to that idea that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He was asked what happens if there's on a deal by the end of the ceasefire. Scott, remember that expires just a little over a week from today, next Tuesday. He said he didn't want to comment on it but that it wouldn't be pleasant for Iran to keeping up those threats. And he described the blockade a little bit. He said Iran is doing absolutely no business now, and we're going to keep it that way. Just one other point, not quite the top headline here, but he was asked if China's president Xi Jinping had reached out. He said no, but that he did have a very good relationship with China that China's Xi Jinping wanted to see this ended and that President Trump said he does as well, Scott. - Okay, Megan, thank you very much for that. That's Megan Kasella in Washington for us. We'll take a break. We'll come back after this. (upbeat music) - All right, we'll see you for the last hour of trade on closing bell. The professor Jeremy Siegel would be Dan Greenhouse's as well, Malcolm Etheridge joining the conversation. Jonathan Khrinsky, Matt Fawson, Grakropri. Great lineup, and I hope you'll join me. At three o'clock Eastern time, we are still, I think, green across the board. We'll check that out, yes we are. So we'll have an interesting one for sure. Brynn, do you have a final trade for us? - C-B-R-E, stock went down. I was 40 points off some cloud plug-in. I think it goes back up to 173. - Okay, thank you very much. Farmer Jim, is that you with city? - That is me. I don't normally step in front of an earnings day like I am with city group. - I am your honor, I-I-I-Sir. This stock, the market wants it to go higher, and if something goes wrong, you're still gonna wanna own it. - Back to Farmer Jim, don't be Jimmy Gitters. - Do it. - We've wiped that off the board. We've got some water. - Steph, he already crossed like three. I don't know. - We have the water calendar day. What's up with that? - I'm gonna go with Morgan Stanley after Goldman Sachs report. I feel really confident it's gonna be a good one with better ROTCE. Stock is flat year to date, trades at 15 times earnings. 2.5% yield. We've got a lot of money. In times earnings, 2.5% yield with a ton of excess capital. That's coming our way. - All right, Joe, is that you? - It sure is XBI, revolution, medicine. - Yeah, oh my, I'm so that charged. - We didn't get to it today, but show the chart as you start. - Well, that's 1% of the XBI ETF, but deals are happening in the space. This could be the best year since 2019 for M&A. - There we go, good job guys. Thank you. We'll see you on the bell. - You've been listening to CNBC's Half-Time Report, the podcast. 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