Early Education's "Long Shadow"

Intro OK, so think about it this way. You're building a skyscraper, right? You wouldn't like just skimp on the foundation? No, definitely. Speaker 2 Not. Speaker 1 Those early stages, crucial, right, for everything that comes after. And when it comes to people, that foundation is so much of what happens in early education. You know, it's fascinating how even seemingly small changes there can have these massive ripple effects years later. It really makes you wonder, like, what happens when you change something really fundamental and how young minds learn what are the real long term consequences? Well, today we're diving into a real world example straight from the Philippines. It gives us some surprising answers. Speaker 2 Yeah, We're going to unpack this significant education policy change that took place and look at the data years later. I mean, it's really a powerful example of how even efforts with the best intentions in early education can lead to some pretty unexpected, even widespread outcomes. Speaker 1 So your mission, should you choose to accept it, and let's be honest, you're already here, so is to understand this natural experiment, Basically what happened when the Philippines shifted, how they taught young kids. We want to see how this policy impacted their learning, how it rippled through their whole school journey. Because those early years, man, they cast a really long shadow. Speaker 2 Absolutely. To get to the bottom of this, we've got some excellent material. The NBER’s working paper on the Philippines’ education policy shift Mainly we're diving into a recent working paper from the NBER that's the National Bureau of Economic Research. For anyone not familiar, they're a well respected research organization. This paper, it really meticulously analyzes standardized test scores and census data after a key education policy shift in the Philippines. They went deep looking at information for the Philippines Department of Education depth head and crunched numbers from the Philippine census both from 2010 and 2020. Speaker 1 OK, so before we jump into what they discovered, can you give us a quick snapshot of the education system there? The Education System in the Philippines I know for quite some time the Philippines had a system where kids were learning in both English and Filipino, which is based on Tagalog if I remember correct. Speaker 2 That's right, yeah. But then in 2012, things took a bit of a turn. Speaker 1 A turn how? Speaker 2 They implemented the Mother Tongue Based Multilingual Education Policy, or MTBMLE for short. Catchy. It was a nationwide effort targeting public elementary schools specifically for kids from kindergarten all the way up to Grade 3. Speaker 1 Gotcha. So say you were a student back then, right there in those early grades when this kicked in, what actually changed in your classroom? Like what was different? Speaker 2 The most significant change was the language used to teach subjects that weren't language classes themselves. So instead of using English or Tagalog, schools were mandated to pick a local mother tongue. It became the primary language for things like math and science. This was all happening in those early years. Speaker 1 Interesting. And it wasn't just a choice between one or two languages. Speaker 2 Right, that's important to note. The policy recognized 19 different local languages officially. However, a key detail is at Tagalog and English. They remained the languages for instruction from grades 4 all the way up to 10. Speaker 1 OK. So you could have some schools teach in, I don't know, Cebuano or Ilocano for those early grades and then other schools. Speaker 2 Other schools chose to stick with Tagalog as their primary language of instruction, and that's what creates this natural experiment that we talked about earlier. You have these two groups, essentially schools that switched to a mother tongue that wasn't Tagalog for teaching the treated schools, and those that continued using Tagalog, which we consider the control group. It's a real world situation where we can see the effects of this policy play out almost like a controlled experiment, but it happened naturally. Speaker 1 Got it. So the treated school switched, the control school stayed with the Galag. But even those control schools had a change too, didn't they? Speaker 2 You're absolutely right. Even in those schools sticking with Tagalog, its use expanded before this policy subjects like math and science. They were actually taught in English starting in I believe grade one for science and grade 3 for math, but after the policy, Tagalog became the language for those subjects in those early grades, even in the control schools. Speaker 1 OK, So what was the driving force behind this shift to mother tongue instruction? Why did the government switch to mother tongue? What were they hoping to achieve for these students? Speaker 2 Well, the reasoning was multifaceted. There was a definite awareness that for many students, the language is being used in classrooms. English and Tagalog weren't the languages they spoke at home. This mismatch was considered a potential barrier especially in those early years when so much learning is happening. Also, the Philippines hadn't been performing well as well as some other countries in international assessments like Tim's. Some people believe teaching in a language kids understood from the get go, like in some of those higher performing nations, could build a stronger foundation. Speaker 1 Makes sense. You learn best in the language you're most comfortable with. Speaker 2 Exactly. On top of that, there were international organizations advocating for mother tongue education, suggesting you could have benefits for brain development, reading and writing. And there was also a strong desire to, you know, promote and preserve those diverse local cultures in the Philippines by actually using those languages in schools. Speaker 1 Yeah, sounds like a good idea in theory. But putting big ideas into practice can be messy, right? Roadblocks Were there any hurdles? Speaker 2 You've hit the nail on the head. Despite all the good intentions, the implementation of MGB, Emily ran into some pretty big roadblocks right from the start. One huge issue was the lack of time schools had to get ready. Speaker 1 Oh really? Like how much time did they have? Speaker 2 The official announcement of this nationwide policy? It came just 3 1/2 months before the school year started in June 2012. Speaker 1 Wow, 3 1/2 months to switch up an entire system? Speaker 2 That's not a lot of time for such a fundamental shift. Speaker 1 Definitely not. What problems did that create? Speaker 2 Well, a huge one was the lack of teaching materials in local languages. Those other than Tagalog schools were expected to teach in these languages, but they didn't have the usual resources, textbooks, workbooks. The policy actually required them to create their own learning materials. Speaker 1 So the schools had to make their own materials. That's a massive undertaking. Speaker 2 It was the Department of Education laid out four major tasks for schools. They had to create those resources, document spelling and grammar rules of the local language, and put together a dictionary. Speaker 1 A whole dictionary. Speaker 2 Yeah, a dictionary. And later, when researchers surveyed schools to see how it went, they found that only a tiny fraction, something like 9%, reported finishing all four. Wow. Speaker 1 Less than one in 10 schools. So picture this. You're a teacher in a school switching to a new mother tongue. Basically, you're starting from scratch, not a lot of support. Speaker 2 And it wasn't just about having the materials. Teacher preparation was another major hurdle. A lot of teachers simply didn't speak the chosen local language well enough to teach in it. The national hiring process. It only required proficiency in Tagalog and English. Speaker 1 So a teacher could be placed in a school in a region and not even speak the language they're supposed to teach in. Speaker 2 It was a common problem. The lack of adequate training was a major criticism and on top of that the policy had this one-size-fits-all approach at the school level. Even if a school picked a mother tongue, it didn't mean all the students in one classroom spoke that language. Speaker 1 Right, so kids might still be learning in a language that wasn't their first language, just a different local 1. Speaker 2 Absolutely. The Philippines has incredible language diversity. They have local dialects even within broader language groups. The policy struggled to really grapple with that on the ground. Speaker 1 OK, so we've got good intentions, some serious practical issues. Impact on Student Learning Now the big question. What does the data show about how this affected student learning? What about those standardized test scores from depth Ed? Speaker 2 Right the researchers, they analyzed data from the National Achievement Tests, or Nat, for students in Grade 3 and Grade 6. They were comparing scores before and after the 2012 policy. When they looked at Grade 3 scores the last year of mother tongue education under this policy, they didn't find statistically significant positive or negative impacts right after the change. Speaker 1 So no big jump in scores right at the end of those mother tongue years, but I think you mentioned there might have been a trend before. Speaker 2 You're right, the data hinted at a potential positive trend in those schools that would eventually implement the mother tongue approach even before it started. So when researchers accounted for that, the estimates actually lean towards a slight negative shift in those grade 3 scores, although it wasn't a super clear cut finding statistically speaking. Speaker 1 Interesting, so no clear positive impact in grade 3 and maybe even a slight -1 what happened in grade 6? Speaker 2 Now this is where it gets really interesting and to be honest, a bit concerning. By grade 6, they found significant and substantial negative effects on scores for students from the treated schools, the ones that had switched to a non Tagalog mother tongue. They scored significantly lower across all subjects compared to those control schools that had continued using Tagalog. Speaker 1 How much lower are we talking? Can you give us a sense of the scale of this drop in performance? Speaker 2 Sure, it was around 2/3 of a standard deviation. That's pretty substantial in education research. It's basically like missing a good chunk of learning, and it wasn't isolated to one subject. These lower Grade 6 scores, they were consistent across English, Tagalog, math, science, even history and geography. Speaker 1 Wow, a widespread impact now? I think they also used a few different ways to analyze the data, right? What did those tell us? Speaker 2 Yes, they compared standard estimates with what's called instrumental variables estimates, right? Imagine it's a way to double check using an external factor to really isolate the policies impact. Yeah, make sure the score changes weren't due to something else going on in those schools, right. The interesting thing is those instrumental variables estimates, they actually pointed to even larger negative effects than the standard ones. Speaker 1 So it's not just random noise. Speaker 2 Exactly. And it suggests maybe better equipped schools were more likely to choose the mother tongue approach, but even they saw those negative results. It really suggests the policy itself was a key factor in those lower scores. Speaker 1 OK, so even when schools were seemingly better set up to make this work, they still saw those negative impacts. Long-term effects Makes you think, but test scores are only one part of the picture right? What about the long term impact on a students education overall? Did this early switch in language affect how many years of schooling they completed? Speaker 2 You're right, test scores are just one piece of the puzzle. To get a clearer picture of the long term effects, the researchers turn to the Philippine census data, specifically from 2010 and 2020. They wanted to see if there were any lasting impacts on educational attainment. Speaker 1 And the census data is massive, right? How did they pinpoint the impact of this specific policy on individuals? Speaker 2 They use something called a triple difference analysis, which sounds very complicated. Speaker 1 Yeah, mouthful. Speaker 2 But think of it as a way to compare educational attainment across different groups. They compared younger people who experienced the policy with older people who didn't. And they compared regions with high exposure to the policy to those with lower exposure all across those two census years. It helps to control for other factors that might influence how much education someone gets. You know, besides the policy itself. Speaker 1 Makes sense, but how did they measure that exposure level in different regions? Because, I mean, not every school in an area switched, right? Speaker 2 You're right, not every school switched. They created something called a treatment intensity measure. Specifically at the municipality level. It was based on the predicted proportion of students likely to have been in those schools using a non Tagalog mother tongue based on the language situation before the policy even started. Basically, regions with more schools likely to have switched had a higher treatment intensity. Speaker 1 OK. So more switching equals higher treatment intensity. What did they find? Speaker 2 The key finding here was pretty substantial. Individuals in those regions with higher treatment intensity, the ones that were young enough to be in those early grades when the policy was in effect, they actually ended up completing significantly fewer years of schooling by 2020. Speaker 1 Fewer years, so this policy might have actually shortened their education. Speaker 2 That's what the data indicates, and to make sure this wasn't just a pre-existing trend, they did a placebo test using the 2010 census data before the policy. This showed no major pre-existing differences and how educational attainment was trending between regions that would later have high versus low treatment intensity. It makes a strong case that those differences in 2020 were really due to the policy itself. Speaker 1 Wow, that's striking. And it wasn't just the total years in school, right? They looked at completing specific grades too. Speaker 2 Right. The analysis showed significant negative impacts, particularly on completing grades four through 8, which suggests that the difficulty students faced in those early grades maybe due to the challenges of learning in a new language without enough support, they kind of snowballed and continued to affect them later on. Speaker 1 So if we step back and look at what we've learned, it seems like the mother tongue based multilingual education policy in the Philippines, despite the really good intentions, might have actually lowered the quality of early education for a lot of students. Conclusion That's a good summary. Speaker 1 Lower scores on standardized tests later on and a decrease in the overall amount of education they ended up getting. Speaker 2 Exactly. The policy aimed to improve learning by using a familiar language early on, but it seems like the implementation challenges were just too significant. Speaker 1 This really emphasizes how vital those early years of education are. It's, like you said earlier, like the foundation of a skyscraper. The findings from the Philippines, they serve as a stark reminder that even seemingly small policy changes at that level can have huge, long lasting ripple effects. It really makes you think twice about the complexity of educational reform. Speaker 2 Absolutely. It really highlights the need for careful planning, thorough preparation, and robust support systems when implementing any changes, especially when it involves something as fundamental as the language used in instruction. You can't just have good intentions. Practical realities matter a lot. Speaker 1 So as we wrap up this deep dive, here's something to ponder. These findings come from the Philippines, a very multilingual country. What lessons can we draw for education policy in other parts of the world that have similar language diversity? What about the potential unintended consequences of well meaning changes in early childhood education? Even beyond language, What are the crucial elements to ensure quality learning experiences for all children in those early years? These are definitely questions worth exploring further. Speaker 2 I agree. This case study is a great example for anyone involved in education policy. It reminds us that rigorous research, thoughtful implementation, and ongoing evaluation are essential. We need to ensure that our efforts to improve education actually benefit students in the long run. Speaker 1 Couldn't agree more. Thank you for joining us for this deep dive. We encourage you to look into the research and keep thinking critically about the things that shape our education systems.