Speaker 1Let's break down Chris's way-too-early shortstop rankings for 2027, up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome into FBT Express on Tuesday, November 3rd. I am Frank Stample, joined by Chris Towers, and let's take a look at Chris's top 12 shortstops for next season. Starting with the top three, we have Bobby Witt Jr., Ellie De La Cruz, and CJ Abrams. Some might be surprised to see Bobby Witt still at the top, the home runs, the RBI disappointing this past season. I would expect a bounce back there. It seems like you would as well. And then CJ Abrams, obviously, monster season, one of three players to go 30-30. Very interested to see where the ADP checks in here on CJ Abrams heading into next season.
Speaker 2Yeah, Witt, I get it. The 18 homers, the 54 RBI, that's really underwhelming stuff from a guy you picked no lower than third overall, certainly in any 5x5 league. So I get the disappointment, I get the frustration, but when you look under the hood, nothing really seems to make sense there. Like, he had a.378 expected WOBA. That's actually the second best of his career behind that monster 2024 season. 92.2 mile per hour average exit velocity. Strikeout rate was actually better than the year before. Sometimes these things just happen and there's not a good explanation for them, but I don't really think Bobby Witt Jr. is the kind of guy you expect teen home runs from, you know, 18. I'd put my expectation closer to 25. I think you get the RBI back up closer to 80. You're talking about one of the best bets for batting average, one of the best bets for stolen bases, one of the best bets for runs in the majors. So I think, yes, it was a frustrating season for him. I don't see any reason to think it's going to be a repeat in 2027. I would bet on a bounce back. And then. Abrams, I think you could make a case. I mean, he was the number one shortstop last season, so you can definitely make a case that third is even underselling him. But one, I just think that the physical tools just aren't quite as strong for him as they are for either Witt or De La Cruz. And also just, it is a little hard to shake with CJ Abrams, the fact that he did have the second half swoon again. You know, it didn't happen as early this year. So I guess that's the positive. But. In the second half, he only hit 239. And his OPS fell from 862 to 791. And it was worse in August and September. So I just. How good is he really is the lingering question for CJ Abrams. I think he's really good. I just think it might be more like 25 homers, 35 steals, with a not helpful batting average.
Speaker 1Very interested to see if he remains on the Nationals. There have been trade rumors for years now, with Abrams, and what position he's playing. Yeah. He is a very bad defensive shortstop, and he has been for years. So I totally get it. But what coincided with that second half swoon was the team wanted him to play second base, and Abrams kind of pushed back. So we'll see where that settles up.
Speaker 2Yeah, and that's always tough. I mean, we don't know how that. You can never predict how that's going to affect a player, but you can't definitely say it's not going to affect him, right? Yeah, that's fair.
Speaker 1Yeah. Four, five, and six in your shortstop rankings, you have Francisco Lindor, Connor Griffin, and Zach Netto. With Lindor, down season this year, but if you dig in, I mean, the bat speed, the average EV was still awesome. Maybe he doesn't get back to running as much, but I think in terms of the batting average and power, I would expect a bounce back there for Lindor. And then Connor Griffin, Chris, some people are going to see this name here, top five shortstop. He hasn't really done much yet, but he was the top prospect, and baseball heading into last season. What are your expectations here for, I guess, a Lindor bounce back and just overall what Connor Griffin could do with a full season?
Speaker 2With Lindor, I don't really have any questions about the bat. I think the bat's going to be more or less what it always needs to be, which is, you know, lower but not harmful batting average, which it was harmful last year. And then the home runs were basically where you expect them to be once you pace it out. So I think when you look at that, when you look at the underlying data, Francisco Lindor should be a 260-ish, 250, 25-ish hitter who gets to 30 or so home runs. The stolen bases are a big question. You know, he's going to be 33. He only stole, what, two bases last season? Three? That's not a trend you typically expect to reverse. Now, yes, I would expect double-digit steals from Lindor, but getting back to 30, I think that might be asking a lot. And then Griffin, the one, the thing that didn't show up as a rookie is the power. He only hit six homers in 80 games, but he hit 272 with a totally reasonable 24% strikeout rate. And he stole 23 bases in 80 games. And even the 43 runs, it's pretty good. It's like an, you know, 85, 86 run pace. And so power would be the one thing you would expect to improve with a young player the most. And he certainly got the physical, physical tools to be a big-time power hitter. I don't know. I think he's a 40-steal guy, and I think he's a helpful batting average right now. And he might hit 20 homers next season, and I really wouldn't be surprised. I just think it's kind of going to be your last chance to bet on this kind of talent at any kind of discount. I think we're going to be talking about if Connor Griffin isn't already in, like, the third-round discussion by the time drafts start up, and he might be. I think this will be the last time he's not.
Speaker 1I'm not saying he's going to steal 70 bags, but I think he could kind of deliver early-career Elie de la Cruz type, where it's, you know, maybe it's 260, 270, 20-ish home runs, but, I mean, 40, 50, 60 steals.
Speaker 2And the thing you have to keep in mind about a player this young and this talented is progression is not necessarily going to be linear. And when the breakout comes, it could be the best player in fantasy kind of production. I mean, you could be talking about a guy who goes 25-50 next season. I think that's within the realm of possibility.
Speaker 1Yeah. All right, let's take a quick break, and we'll be back right after this.
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Speaker 1Welcome back, FBT Express. Looking at Chris's way-too-early shortstop rankings for next season. 7, 8, and 9. You have Kevin McGonigal, Trey Turner, and Gunnar Henderson. Henderson has burned us two years in a row now. It's two down seasons in a row. The power hasn't been there. The speed came way down. Apparently, he played through a wrist injury in the second half. But that's now two years in a row where the team has kind of like blamed it on injuries after the season has ended. He really has not been a first-round player since the first half of 2024. But he's still in the prime age of his career. So it's just kind of weird the way things are playing out here for Gunnar Henderson.
Speaker 2Yeah, and then the fact, you know, I think you could live with the down season as a hitter. And maybe explain that. The drop to only 10 steals after going for 30 plus the year before is that's really tough. And it doesn't, it takes away some of the insulation that he has in his profile where, okay, maybe he's not an elite hitter like we thought he would. But, you know, you're still getting five category production from the guy. Well, now if he's not really a stolen base guy, it makes it, it puts even more pressure on the bat to show up. And like you said, the bat hasn't really been there at least at that high level since the second half of 2024. Or since the first half of 2024, I guess. So there's only so far you're going to be able to move Gunnar Henderson down because it's the name Gunnar Henderson and what we've seen from him in the past. But boy, if he's a top 50 pick, it's going to be a real tough click for me to make.
Speaker 1All right. Rounding out your top 12, we have Jeremy Pena, Otto Lopez, and Mookie Betts here at Shortstop. I want to focus here on Otto Lopez, who just had the breakout season, I guess, with him and Pena. Yeah. They both could be trade candidates this offseason. So we'll see what happens there. But Lopez obviously ran a bunch more this year. The XBA has always been good. So I think it makes sense that the batting average, you know, was much better this past season. Where do you think Otto Lopez goes from here, Chris? Would you be expecting maybe a little bit of a step back for Otto Lopez?
Speaker 2Yes. And we already saw that in the second half. He was leading baseball in batting average, I believe, at the All-Star break. And he definitely didn't do that in the second half. Now, full season statistics. More predictive than partial season statistics. We all know that. But I do think it's worth pointing out when you have a player like this who really only has that track record of being a high-level performer for a few months. You know, really, what, three months? Two and a half months? And so I still think he can be a good player. You know, he might be a good bet to hit 285 or 290, given the contact skills. But I do expect kind of a step back. across the board and you're looking at you know maybe overall picture could be more like what Geraldo Perdomo did in 2026 which is still a pretty useful player I would guess more batting average for Otto Lopez but overall probably pretty similar yeah I think he's a low-end starting shortstop but I think if you are starting him at shortstop in 2027 you're taking a little hit relative to the the heavy hitters at the position I think all
Speaker 1right if you want to hear more about the shortstop position we just did a recap on the full length podcast so make sure to check that out fantasy baseball today wherever you listen to podcasts spotify apple podcast uh thanks for listening to fantasy baseball today express and we'll be back again later this week bye
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