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Speaker 6Way too early first base rankings for 2027. Up next on Fantasy Baseball Today Express. Welcome to FBT Express on Friday, October 23rd. I am Frank Samples joined by Scott White, and we are taking a look at Scott's top 12 first basemen for next season. And we will start up at the top. Numbers one, two, and three. We have Nick Kurtz, Miguel Vargas, and Sal Stewart. Plenty of options here up Scott. Top Scott, obviously a loaded position this past season. We didn't talk about Nick Kurtz on our full length podcast because he dealt with injury. He did not finish inside the top 12 at the position. But before he got hurt with that thumb injury, he was a monster this past season.
Speaker 7Yeah, he was. And it's easy to lose sight of that because he finished the year with a 256 batting average, which was a little less than you'd want from the number one first base. And seems like the inevitable fulfillment of his very high strikeout rate. Okay, he managed to hit 290 as a rookie even with that strikeout rate. But 256 seems more appropriate, right? Except before hurting that thumb, as you mentioned, he was hitting 280. And he had a 951 OPS. He was very close to that massive rookie season that made him look like far and away the top first baseman in fantasy. And I think it proved that he is the sort of player who can consistently deliver a near 1000 OPS, which is a very rare breed of hitter. So adjusting his stats for the timing of the injury and expecting better health next year, I think Kurtz remains the clear number one at this position. I'll also note Vargas and Stewart second and third here, mainly because they're eligible at third base for next year. And that's a much weaker position. Fourth and fifth, if you don't see the. Graphic or Ben Rice and Pete Alonzo. If we're just comparing numbers for numbers, those might be second and third. Rice and Alonzo ahead of Vargas and Stewart. But we're not just doing that. We're doing where they should be drafted. Vargas and Stewart go ahead because of that third base eligibility.
Speaker 6All right. Numbers four, five and six. You gave some of it away here, Scott. But we have Ben Rice, Pete Alonzo and Matt Olson. Obviously, two old reliables here in Alonzo and Olson. And then Ben Rice had the. Breakout that we were all expecting. And yeah, you partially answered my question. Why is Rice behind Vargas and South Stewart? OK, I think it's I think it's very close between all three of those guys. But yeah, I think the steals in the third base eligibility. I totally get why Vargas and Stewart are ahead of Ben Rice. But yeah, all young guys kind of like entering their prime. And I totally get, you know, this top five being interchangeable at the position.
Speaker 7Yeah, it pretty much is. And I'm including Pete Alonzo in that because I think he he was more or less the best version we've ever seen from May 1st on. He hit during that time. He hit for average is the main thing. And this is two years in a row now that Pete Alonzo has hit 265 or better. I was. I was 267, 2026, 272 and 2025. This is a guy who used to be a liability in batting average. And what we've seen from him the past two years is exit velocities increased. And he's not pulling the ball as much, which could be a problem, except because Alonzo is hitting it so hard. He's still showing that 40 Homer power, not a big strikeout guy as much as you'd think for how much power he has, where his batting averages tended to be. I think he might actually be a. Plus in that category. Now, again, 267 doesn't blow you away. His expected batting average of 2026 was 285. So, like, he left a little bit on the table there. Yeah. And at the very least, I think you could slot him in for 270 batting average next year. In addition to having the the big counting stats, home runs, RBI and runs.
Speaker 6Yep. Again, that was Pete Alonzo. We were just talking about. Let's take a quick break and we'll be back right after this. Baseball season is in full swing and there's no better. Place to be than Cal Shee, America's number one prediction market platform. Atlanta is currently trading at 7% to win it all, meaning a $100 trade pays out over $1,200 with a win on Cal Shee. You're trading against other people in a live market. No house, no odds makers. And as the odds move, you can buy in or out any time throughout the postseason. Download the Cal Shee app and use code fan to get up to $500 in bonus credits. When you trade $25 KALSHI. Cal Shee, trade on anything. 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Cal Shee products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see calshee.com slash regulatory. Welcome back in FBT Express. Taking a look at Scott's way too early first base rankings for next season. Seven, eight and nine on the list. We have Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper and Vlad Jr. Again, mainstays at the position, but we know it was a huge letdown season here for Vlad playing through various injuries for most of the season. Scott, how did you settle on Vlad Jr. being ninth in your first base rankings?
Speaker 7So one through eight, there are basically the mainstays, the ones who, you know, obviously there are some newcomers there. Vargas, Stewart and Ben Rice, who are just so good that they had to rank among the mainstays. But otherwise. It's the kind of players you're used to seeing at the top of the first base rankings that didn't do anything to fall out of that group. Vladimir Guerrero did do something to fall out of that group. Obviously, he was he was so bad in twenty twenty six that frankly, in a lot of shallower leagues, he would have been better off just dropping him because he never did bounce back. But he still has that track record of greatness and is still in the prime of his career at age twenty seven and still had his usual bat speed, his usual plate discipline. Didn't fall off by the usual age indicators. You know, makes sense. He's only twenty seven. I think he was playing hurt. We know he was playing hurt. He's playing with a back issue all year. And that can have a it can have a serious impact on power production. So offseason of rest should do him a lot of good. If he comes into spring training with a bill of health, clean bill of health, I think. I think. I think. Guerrero is going to be a strong bounce back candidate, and I'm ranking him with that expectation. I think he has a lot of good baseball left, and we're going to look back on twenty twenty six and see it as the outlier. So I'm happy to accept the discount, having him only ninth at first base.
Speaker 6Rounding out your top twelve at first base, we have Jack Caglione, Bryce Eldridge and Alec Burleson. Cags and Eldridge. The breakouts are on for next season.
Speaker 7Yeah. Yeah. And it's kind of difficult. But to separate the two, they both hit the ball incredibly hard. They both don't have the kind of severe contact issues you'd expect for for how hard they hit the ball. And I think they came halfway toward their ultimate breakout in twenty twenty six. They showed a lot of good signs, Caglione especially, which is why he ranks higher of the two. He was pretty much a monster from the. over the final four seasons from June. first on um head-to-head points per game during that time for caglione was uh 3.31 which is basically what pete alonso averaged for the season um the top line numbers again this is from june first on for caglione 317 batting average 18 home runs 914 ops he still has launch angle issues like he could he needs to elevate it more to fully maximize his power as a 35 to 40 homer guy but he does have that kind of upside otherwise the data for caglione looks very similar to nick kurtz and i think uh i think caglione has number one type potential at this position uh which is why i rank up 10th ahead of for instance alec burleson who had a huge year wilson contreras freddie freeman who had a kind of a down year but obviously he's been a mainstay this position for a long time i'll take caglione all over all of them uh because i think there's another step forward here and potentially a huge one
Speaker 6yep and those are scott's top 12 first baseman for next season you could find his top 20 first baseman on the website there's an article there bunch of positions way too early rankings for next season so make sure to check those out cbssports.com slash fantasy slash baseball or on the cbs fantasy app for more extensive fantasy baseball coverage listen to our full-length podcast fantasy baseball today on spotify apple podcasts or anywhere else you can find us on our or anywhere else podcasts are found thanks for listening to fbt express and we'll be back again next week bye paramount podcasts
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