Eagles In TROUBLE, 49ers Elite & Packers Finished? NFL Week 4 Reactions (Ep. 2244)

This is an iHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts, all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Let's go, I've got it. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the tailgate. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by Andrew Erickson and Derek Rao. We are reacting to week four of the NFL season. That's right, folks. We are a month in so far. Like every other week, guys, we're going to start things off with some news and notes talking about all of the injuries that happened, because that has not slowed down whatsoever. As I've been doing, I'll sort of quickly run through the list here. And then we can kind of pick and choose where we want to highlight these, because there's quite simply not enough time to go through all of them. Lamar Jackson, ankle injury that happened on the final play of the first half in their game against the Titans. He looked awesome against them before that injury. He was seen leaving the stadium in a boot. Rapidport said they were thinking day to day. Florio said more like week to week. Jesse Minter said that there was discussions about bringing him back into the game yesterday. I think that was sort of misinterpreted by some people online as they consider doing. And I think having a good discussion could be as simple as like EC capable of coming back or not. So I'm not putting too much stock of that. I'm kind of operating as if he's going to miss a week here. But we'll see. That's obviously the biggest name in terms of quarterbacks. Jamar Chase concussion. We know with those that often means missing at least one game. But we'll see what happens there. Say Juan Barclay hamstring left the game for the Eagles. DJ Moore re aggravated that AC joint shoulder issue he had for the bills. Rishi Rice left his game with the hamstring. T Higgins, another one with the Bengals receivers had the groin issue. Ty Quantorton obviously a very, very, very bad ankle injury that was tough to watch. We're thinking about him open for the best there. Lad McConkey re aggravating a foot injury that he had during the week. And then Kyle Menunguy had an awesome game. But he did have a thumb injury in there as well. And then as DeBro added to our sheet, also Diadria Swift parentheses butter fingers. So that's the other one to be thinking about here. DeBro, I'll start with you. What, I mean, obviously, these are some of the biggest names in fantasy and in the NFL. The first name is a list of Richard Mark Chase and say, Juan Barclay, where do you want to start with the injuries this week? What do the Cincinnati Bengals do in week five when they don't have their star receivers and they do not have the ability to run the ball? And they don't even care about trying to run the ball. Because last week's game was close. You'd swear from the box score. And Joe Burrow throwing the ball over 50 freaking times that they were getting blasted. Like they were losing like 23 to two or two or three, or it's 30 to six or something insane. And yet, it's 13 to three and a half time. Chase Brown doesn't even get the ball. They don't even attempt to run the ball. Well, guess what, boys? Better get familiar with the run of the ball this week? I don't think Joe Burrow's going to throw in 50 freaking times. It's a mental tension. Well, do you know who they're playing this week? I know exactly who they're playing this week. And they might not need Chase and Higgins to do just fine against the Dolphins. I don't know, man. The Dolphins have been quite competitive the last two weeks. They've been, I mean, Chris Bell's long touchdown doesn't get called back. I don't know. I don't know. I think that says more about the Vikings offense, honestly. Erickson, what do you think about the Bengals? Let's say they have to go into this game in week five without Chase and Higgins. I think it just means that there's value on the Bengals. Because I think that Joe Burrow without Jamar Chase without T Higgins is still eons better than whatever we saw from Calamari in this past game. Yeah, yeah. So that's why I'm not overly concerned. The Jacksonville Jaguars are past funnel defense. I don't think that the Bengals were game planning to-- OK, we're going to run them all over Jackson though. I mean, that's why I bet the under on Chase Brown rushing attempts, which wasn't-- he had more catches than rushing attempts in this game because he had 11 catches out of the backfield. So Chase Brown's still a three down-- or in terms of his three down skill set. So he's still going to be involved. He's still explosive and can revolve big plays. And it's just next man up with the Bengals, right? We'll see if they get Kobe Young back. He missed this past game. It's possible. He comes back in returns after missing one week. And you have Ty Dans, Micah Seki. He steps up all the time when these receivers miss time. So they probably won't be pretty. But I mean, that Miami-Dolphin's secondary is so bad. Guys are running wide, open against them. And I think the Bengals can take advantage of it. The other team that has not only is a contender, but had multiple receiver injuries was the Chiefs, obviously Thornton is going to be out for the season with the ankle. Rishi Rice, the hamstring-- you're not sure how much time he's going to miss, yet, unless you guys have seen an update there. But I mean, they can't start giving more carries to Kenneth Walker, Erickson, or already giving him as many as he could possibly handle. So what do you think the Chiefs are going to do if they're down to receivers going into-- actually, you know what, never mind. I just totally forgot. They have to buy next week. So they do get a week on the Rishi Rice side to see how he heals in his back in a couple of weeks. But if two weeks from now, he's not back yet. What do you think about the Chiefs offense? Well, I do have Rookie Cyrus Allen, who flashed a lot during training camps. So it's possible that he gets a little bit more run as one of these starting receivers. Jalen Royals got the biggest bump in this past week with Rishi Rice injured after six snaps played due to that hamstring injury. And all the rumblings are that Terry Kale is going to sign with the team the next coming days. And is it not, obviously, the Chiefs? What other team would he sign with us he's trying to, like, I'm the Cheetah. I'm going to become a bangle. That's exactly what I wanted to. Reunited with a likely danger with the Chargers. I mean, they can't get it any worse, right? So I think it's pretty clear that he'll be signing with the Chiefs at some point. And that's obviously going to be another receiver out to that room. He obviously knows my home. So I don't know what kind of shape Terry Kale is in, but I'm kind of sick of betting against guys coming back from these season ending injuries. When it seems like we're off tonight, guys are coming back quicker, faster, stronger. And the fact that he's free across the league in terms of fantasy, it's worth just kind of picking up to kind of see, hey, how is the things kind of shake out? You're especially with Tykel and Thorin's injury looking like, I mean, he's going to be out indefinitely for sure. By the way, the bagels by is in week six. So I would imagine like they are going to air on the side of caution with both Chase and Higgins because they have a buy the following week and they're playing the Dolphins this week. So they basically have two guys. Debra, any thoughts on the Chiefs offense with these guys going down? I mean, it's a mess, but also, I mean, we're going to see an obvious target bump for Travis Kelsey. But to Erickson's point, they got guys on the roster that could possibly step up. Like, I think Jim and Royals can play the Rashid Rice role. I fully believe that. So if he's like putting that low eight out roll high, you know, I'm not going to say that he's going to get 30% target chair, but I think you're going to see them lean more on Travis Kelsey. Maybe we see more image Johnson. I agree with that, especially because he got zero carries this last game, but I think Chiefs loaded up Ken Walker to start the year because they knew they had a week five by week. I think that really does matter in terms of they knew homes was coming off of his ACL injury. They knew Ken Walker was going to be at his peak to start the year and they hadn't early by week. So they've already backed off the workload a little bit. Like he only got 22 touches last night. So it's not like he was like a 30 year or anything like that. You know, I mean, just, just saying, saying with Saequan, do you guys have any interest in trying to approach this backfield on the fantasy side in waivers this week? I mean, because Bigsby got thanked up too. Didn't he add in Will Shipley? Yeah. I mean, you can catch a bunch of dumbass asses from jail and hurts, because that's kind of what the Eagles offices maybe can become. Who knows? Who knows who they're going to be out there for the Eagles catch passes? So you can be lemon, wicks, Will Shipley against the Jags in London. Good Lord. Yeah. Well, yeah. I don't think we need to spend time on like DG more. That offense is still going to be good. Latin McConkey. That offense is still going to be bad. Oh, we'll talk about the charges later. Same with the Eagles. Come up later. They're back into stock down section of the show. Yeah. I do want to take a second on Lamar's ankle, though, because obviously just in terms of like impact on the league, this is probably the actual biggest injury of the week if there is any time missed because of how important he is in MVP quarterback. And also how important he is for your beloved, and I beloved now to Zay flowers. You know, he went from another utterly dominant first half to not doing anything because of an injury. And the second half this time, it was Lamar's injury. He actually did leave the game for a couple plays when his book got stepped on Zay. He came back in, though. So that's not a long term concern. The numbers for Zay flowers, if you only include the quarters in which he and Lamar Jackson have both been on the field this season, not even accounting for the fact that he was running limited plays in the Rio game. Like just pretending that was a normal full workload from him, which of course wasn't. He's averaging 178 yards a game this season. If you just take a, you know, play out the time he's been on the field of Lamar Jackson, it is unbelievable how much he is breaking defenses and breaking fantasy and breaking, you know, records in terms of efficiency when he has been on the field. Debra, Zay flowers is good. Who knew? Who knew, warm? Who knew? Listen, I knew it was good. I don't know who was this. This is like, he's not as good a player as JSM, but this is like very similar to me of last year where it's like, oh, the new play collar came in and just unlocked everything and changed the way we view this guy. Again, JSM is the better receiver, but it is very reminiscent that like Declan Doyle just comes in the way Clint Kubiak did last year. And it's just like, oh, this is how you could have been using him the whole time. This guy's a stud. So the only thing I'll push back about all of that is right after he signed the contract, I tweeted it out and I looked at everybody. but basically every single per rap metric versus every single coverage that you could pull up. And Zae Flowers is elite or has been elite versus all of it like man coverage, zone, route win, rate, downfield, short like he's been amazing. So my only pushback was been like, he's kind of been that guy for the last few years. And the Ravens just did not lean on him as being that guy, but he's been that guy. Statistically, yes. You don't feel like watching him, it looks different. I feel like it just looks like he's playing uneasy. I just look like they finally lean into running their pass. I can tack through him, like fully through him. It is from Eric center. You're gonna be knocking down Zae at all in your rankings for week five if Lamar's out. I mean if Lamar doesn't play, I think that you have to adjust your expectations for what Zae Flowers is gonna do, but from like a season long perspective, I still am very high on Zae Flowers. We talk about this all the time, right? Process always says, when an elite wide receiver loses quarterback, you go out and trade for them in fantasy 'cause more often than it works out. Sometimes it doesn't like Jefferson last year, but a lot of times it works out like Jamar Chase last year. When he lost Joe Burrow and he ended up just being an absolute monster 'cause he got 20 targets again. So Zae Flowers still be the focal point of the Ravens. Passing attack, he is so elite after the catch that kind of mitigates any type of quality in terms of the targets to him from Tyler currently. And it's not like, it's like a bad backboard back then. - Tyler is a totally functional, right? - Backup, yes. - And it's a new offense too. So we'll see, maybe Declano can help unlock a little bit more of Tyler Huntley. I mean right now we're looking at the line. It's Ravens laying three points, playing at that Lana Falcons. That line to me suggests that Lamar Jackson's not playing because we would probably all agree that if Lamar Jackson was playing, it would be more than three points even more. - That line was six before the games on Sunday. So there's obviously a bit of halved by the idea of Lamar not being there and obviously the totals gone way down. The thing with Huntley too, I'll say is like, I know they didn't score in the second half yesterday with him playing. That was like, he came in cold. He said he didn't even know he was gonna be starting the second half until like a minute or two before kickoff of the second half. Like they kind of threw it on him. And he also like, the task was simple. It was don't lose to the tights. Like you're up by like three scores. You're playing the Titans. It was kind of a weather-filled game too. It was rainy and misty. Like, just don't make the big mistake. And he didn't. And I'm not saying he's gonna be Lamar Jackson. Of course he's not, but he can be better than he showed in the second half with a week of practice and them knowing they need to score more. He's a perfectly capable backup. - My projection for Derek Henry's line was almost spot all in two, worm. - Oh was it? - Yeah, I didn't question that, man, yeah. - Yes. - Nice, well done. Yeah, he just, you know, he's gonna get you that touchdown every week 'cause he's gonna happen. - Inevitable. - Before we get to the next segment, if you want a chance to win one of the most unique pieces of NFL fan gear out there, the large NFL PA wall smack courtesy of our good friends at trophy smack the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your shot. They're oversized, officially licensed NFL PA wall smack are bold statement pieces that are perfect for your fan cave, office, or living room wall. It's not just decor. It's a way to wrap your favorite players in style. To enter, all you need to do is subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below in any of our videos, and that's it. We will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure you turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this epic prize. All right guys, let's get into our conclusion segment, sort of what we learned this week. Erickson, we'll start with you. - Houston, we have a problem sitting at O and four. Can this team rally and get back into the post season? Well, according to next-gen stats, teams that are on four, we have one team that has gone to the playoffs since 1992, the 1992 San Diego Chargers. Now, we talked about this thing last week when the Texans felt on three that, okay, well, they did this before and they were able to bounce back and make it to the playoffs. I think the big difference between this Texans team compared to last year is the defense is not nearly as good. And it's a very hard bar to meet because of how elite and suffocating they were. And we tend to see this from year to year where elite defenses are more likely to address to the mean than elite offenses are. So despite the fact that we got a amazing outing from CJ Stroud last week, 126.7 pass rating, that was the sixth highest of his career, 0.45 e-paper dropback, that was the fifth highest he's ever had in his career. So getting Michael Collins back was so clearly a major boost that this team was missing and obviously contributed to the fact that they are an O and 14. They have not won a game yet. And I don't think it's a scenario where this Texans team being O and 4 is reflected of how talented they are on both sides of the football especially when you Collins is healthy. I think they are better than an O and 4 team, but they are still O and 4. And digging out of this type of hole can be really, really tough and really challenging. You have two road divisional matchups coming up, playing at the Titans should be W, but then you're playing at Jacksonville in London. Then you get the nearest Giants at home and then you get your week eight by week. So if they can upset the Jaguars, maybe go on the 3-0, enter their by week at 3-4, maybe that's the case where their defense can play a little better and they can kind of get a complete game going because right now the Texans don't feel like a complete team. They feel like either defense plays really well and their offense lets them down or their offense plays really well and their defense lets them down. They haven't had this full cohesive unit and when I look at the team that's in first place in that division, the Jacksonville Jaguars to me are a complete team where they finding ways to win whether it's on offense, whether it's on defense. The Texans are the opposite where I feel like one side of their ball or one of their units is letting them down more often than not. I think there's a lot of injuries on the defense that have kind of been flying under the radar as he's all shared, didn't play last week. They have Henry Toa Toa. He did not play, he's also on injured reserve. Mario Edwards was placed on injured reserve. So I think you're starting to see some holes in their defense and despite the fact how good Will Anderson is rushing the passer, like he's a favorite probably for defense player of the year, this team is still O and four. So they can't run the ball. That's another big issue. Fifth highest in pass rate this season. And although it was nice to see Jalen all finally get like 60% of the snaps and you see what he can do when he just plays more, they did this in week two and they put them back in the box in week three and it's super, super frustrating that they're not unleashing their best players. So that's kind of how I feel about the Texans where I don't think that they are an O and four team but they are an O and four team. And I don't know if they're going to have the schedule work in their favor and have the run out that they had last year to really get out of this hole. - I mean, the schedule lightens up outside of the Jags games and then the game against the Ravens. Those are the three toughest games remaining on the schedule. The rest of it is much easier than what the run out has been to start the season. I was just looking at the schedule as you were talking, Erickson. Like it just in terms of just think about the defense. Like I would say, again besides Jacksonville, clearly the three toughest and again the Ravens, clearly the three toughest offenses to face this season were Buffalo's Cincinnati and Dallas and that was three or four for four for this game. I expect the defense to look better. - And does that say hi? They also beat him. - Well, I know the coach, I didn't say that every single team has to beat the four for right off. - And also that Colts game was that Nico. Like Texas are winning that game with Nico Collins. - But he's also like a player that he misses time. Like this is like nothing new for Nico Collins. He has his hand, like the fact that the team is so dependent on, and again, like, is this really a reflective of Houston's offense being, 'cause dude, the Colts defense is also bad. And Houston's offense looked like crap against them, even though they didn't have Nico. I think it's kind of like we have the compounding effect where it's like you get Nico back and you get the Dallas Cowboys. So now your offense looks amazing, but then your defense looks like crap. So yeah, I go back to my point where like, just not a complete team. - Well, again, I'm not saying it's been a perfect start, obviously like they are O and four and that Colts loss was bad. But my point is that three of their toughest games of the season I would argue going into the season in terms of what the defense is facing have already happened. So I'm not surprised that overall the defense doesn't look like statistically as amazing. I wouldn't be so, the rest of their schedule again, setting aside the Jacksonville games, which Jags are better. It's Tennessee, it's the Giants with a backup quarterback. It's the Chargers that look broken. It's the Browns, which eventually are gonna fall back to Earth. It's the Colts again. It's the Steelers with an old quarterback. It's Washington on the third string quarterback. It's Philly, which looks broken. It's Green Bay, which looks broken and then Tennessee again. Like the schedule does lighten up immensely compared to the four games they've had to start the season. Again, outside of those three that I highlighted, which every team is gonna have a couple of tough games in there. It's a math problem though, D-Bro. Like they're O and four. It doesn't matter if they play like a playoff level team from here on out, the margin for error is just, it's not even gone, it's in the negatives. Like it's so difficult mathematically to come back from this. - Oh yeah, I don't disagree with anything. And then you get to the, I mean, there are problems that they have are glaring problems. The only thing they're doing well right now is stopping the run. They're passing in it. Like they're bottom five and explosive pass rate. Yeah, sure, they're pressuring the quarterback and stuff. Doesn't matter when they're secondary is a fricking mess. They cannot run the ball. So they're a one-dimensional offense and at any given moment, C.J. Stroud and C.J. Stroud and Enrico Collins is an out there. Good Lord. I mean, you know, Nick Kaylee might go back to running out Xavier Hutchinson and throw Jalen Ol back into a 30% snap rate. And then cut the routes of Dalton Schultz. Who knows? And none of this is crazy because we've already seen it all happen earlier this season. So it's not like I'm prognosticating things that just sound insane and could never happen. No, we've seen all of this. So I think we're looking at a team that is, I'm not saying they're broken because they have a lot of talent on this roster, but on the offensive side of the ball, it's not being utilized properly. On the defensive side of the ball, it's not playing up to the talent level. So while we look at the rest of their schedule, they say, man, you know, their schedule lightens up a whole lot. Again, the only pushback I'll give is we are at week four or the conclusion of week four. So a lot of it, we still don't know who some of these teams are, who they can be. And if the Texans are playing this bad, we need to lower expectations to some of these teams that are playing above their heads could beat them like the browns. Maybe I'll believe that when I see it. I just can't I can't get over the fact like if I was ranking the most explosive classic one of the worst teams in the Damien NFL right now. Okay, but they didn't beat the Colts didn't beat them with their office. They beat them because the Texans offense was terrible. They can't do anything. Well, they can't run the ball. I know I'm not I'm not arguing that the offense is a problem when he goes off the field. It's obviously terrible. And he wasn't on the field in that game. I'm saying defensively. If you were ranking the most like you're talking about the explosive pass rate. They're giving up the most explosive passing off into the NFL. I think the top three I would list are Buffalo Cincinnati and Dallas. Excuse me. And those are the three games that are affecting those numbers so strongly. Like the Titans are not going to have explosive pass plays against this defense. I don't think the chargers are going to. We've seen this year. I don't think the Shawn Watson is going to the offense is a problem. I zero disagreement with you. They are deeper at all. The Houston offense is bad. And it Kayleigh has done a poor job. It's it is a problem. I don't think the defense is as bad as the stats say because of these offense. And then they play the Ravens at the back half. They play the commanders who it looks like they're going to get Jane Daniels back. They play the Jaguars again. If the Eagles can somehow find their way if the Packers can somehow find their way because the Packers biggest problem is their offensive line. And so if they're offensive line can somewhere get to a semblance of at least in the area code of league average again. I'm big time worried about the Texans because I don't lean on anything that outside of rushing the passer and stopping the run that this entire team is doing well. They should get Brayden Smith back at some point because he's been not into reserve to start of the season, but it was a short term. So they should be able to upgrade tackle. And one thing about shroud that he actually has been good. He hasn't really turned the ball over, which you can't say for a lot of these imploding offenses that we've seen like the Colts like the Chargers. He doesn't have a turnover since week one. So that is working in the favor of the Texans. I just don't see and may I shouldn't say this because we see divisional upsets all the time like they have to win that game jacksville. They are in London excuse me or split at least one of the one of these if they enter the buy week at two and five. I think that's totally different than if they go in on a three game win streak into their buy week. And then I could see, okay, could they maybe sneak into the wildcard if things start to get together. Nico Collins stays healthy and the defense just gets back to top 10 and not giving up explosive plays. I could see that through all the kind of things we talked about because again, I don't think they are an own four team in terms of like you look at on paper, how many guards they give up, how many points they're scoring, especially with Nico and lineup, but to the overarching point, eventually it is a numbers game. And you have to win a certain amount of games and not lose certain amount of games. And that's what really puts the behind the eight ball. Like if you can't run the ball versus the freaking cowboys, you got some serious freaking issues, dude. I mean, the Ravens didn't run the ball that well against cowboys. They ran it. They got touchdowns, but the I think cowboys run defense has improved from the first two weeks of the season. I'm not trying to say I think the techs are going to make the playoffs to be clear. I'm saying I think that the opponents have had a real hand in the statistical like defensive profile that the techs have put out there so far. And I think they are better than an own four team. Again, I do think there's a problem in terms of like, hey, they have these clear flaws and be I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs. I think they've dug to be out bigger. Debra, let's go to your what we learned this week. You've got another team that's in big trouble. The Eagles are an absolute and total mess right now. And like, I mean, let's just go through the injuries. Sequence, her Dallas Godrids, her Devente Smiths, her Lane Johnson's got personal things. The offensive line can't play well. They can't rush the passer and outside of their cornerbacks. Oh, yes. And by the way, Koyneon Mitchell is now hurt too. Outside of their outside cornerbacks, what part of the defense has been playing extremely well. Cooper Dijin looks like he's fallen off a cliff this year to begin the season. The Eagles are in big time trouble. Again, I'm having a hard time coming up with a list of what does this team do well at all versus all the other things that they are not doing well. And another team going back to the volatility of defenses. Yeah, Texans were supposed to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. What are they doing? Okay. So we're the Eagles. They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL is for interns of defense. How he does, how he thinks, big fans, you. Ah, they signed to reek. Well, then they'll just be awesome. They got Jonathan Grinard in the offseason. The past rush. No worries. And yet here we are. Do they make the playoffs? I'm looking at their schedule now. It's a tough schedule going forward. It's not like an all-time difficult schedule, but it's not easy. I mean, they got the Jags in London. They got the Panthers. They've Dallas Panthers who look bricyod looks awesome. They have Dallas. They have at the commanders. If Jay Daniels is back for that, they have a Giants team that, you know, has has been played well and has coached well. They have the Seattle Houston and San Francisco back-to-back back to the season. I mean, it's they're not going to go two and 15, right? But like, there's a lot of loosable games on the on the slate and they do. It is not just that they don't look as good as I expected. They look quite bad, Erickson. Yep. It's a new offense that they still have not clearly gotten all the concepts up. And it's hard to do when you're shuffling offensive personnel. They're embarrassing a week. They're losing more guys. The offensive line is continuing to get injured, older, and that's problematic. So the one thing that equals are doing well is three and outs. They have 15, three and out drives this season. That is the most in the NFL. It's not a list. Maybe the top of 11 of their last 15, three and out drives come in the second half, three more than any other team. I don't think about it. They couldn't beat the Rams because they just couldn't sustain any drives. And then once the Rams offense finally got out of their own way, and Matt the Stafford stopped throwing interceptions. I honestly could not believe because I bit on the Rams because I was like, once Lane Johnson was ruled out like, auto bet, faith, eagles, offense, bury them in every type of ranking. And I'm watching that scoreboard ticker on my TV. And I'm thinking, man, what are the Rams doing? Why can't they score against the Eagles? And I'm like, all right, well, I guess I was wrong. And I look up Rams win 24 20. Wait, what happened? So, yeah, this offense just looks so broken. It looks a lot like last year where it just tailed two halves. Eagles don't do anything in one half of football. They need a big run from Sequon. They did a big play from Devanta Smith. And now those guys are all banged up. I could not agree more with DeBrow as just like the Eagles being in trouble here. And right now, like, are the Cowboys going to win this? Like who's actually the best bet to win this division now? Cowboys. I'll pull up the odds. Actually, I'm not sure what the odds are showing. Because you can say, like, Cowboys are my pay. Cowboys should be my money. But the giants are in first. We kind of feel like they'll probably fall off. Yes. You can only go for so long. But who's, I mean, that's quarterback, like Jane Daniels, like these healthy, you know, can you last? I mean, what's, I just kind of interesting to look at this division. Senses odds on betting pros.com have the Cowboys at plus 140. That feels like a great bet. And you know, who's won 125 is Billy. Cowboys have longer odds than the Eagles right now. And that is consensus odds on betting pros. Yeah, the thing about it is what happens when you go forward to juniors, a full-time player and stuff. Maybe we get a better version of this defense as we move through the season. I would go bet on the Cowboys right now. I bet that I shouldn't be a plus odds right now. I strongly, strongly prefer the Cowboys moving forward here. Yeah. I think that's a good call. You guys both are kind of negative. So I want to go a little more positive with the conclusion this week. Bears defenses may be decent. I mean, they obviously did not do. I'm not saying it with my chest, which I recognize. But this was a defense that we thought, I mean, I can't think of how many shows I do with fits where he said this was the circus team this year where they're going to have great offense. And the defense is going to be so bad that they're going to throw a ton. And every, every game take the over and all that fun stuff. And that played out in week one. Carolina looks pretty good this season in multiple other games. So maybe that was more about the Panthers. And then I mean, I know it was terrible weather conditions, but they gave up fewer than 10 points to the Vikings. They then gave up just seven points to the Eagles team. We just talked about that. They gave up 12 points to a begged up. But decent offense in the jets. What Erie's what has looked like a competent offense this season. I'm not saying that the Bears defense is elite. I'm not saying that it's a defense to be maybe feared. But maybe it is not a defense to be attacked in fantasy. The way we thought it was going to come into the season and after week one where it was, oh, you have anybody facing them go ahead and start them. I mean, maybe you guys disagree, but I have been more impressed than I expected to with the Bears defense. They were talking after this game about how this was like one of the easiest games they've ever played defensively because they were just so few snaps. I think the jets ran like 32 plays in this game. The Bears at 34 first down. It was like some insane disparity where the defenders didn't have to be on the field because Dennis Allen did a great job dialing up third down play calls and getting them out to fields. So I'm not saying it's super talented. Again, I'm not saying it's the best defensive football or anything close to it. But if they're merely decent, that's actually a pretty big deal. Both for facing them at fantasy and for the NFC North and the NFC in general. Once Caleb Williams gets back, they've been surprising as far as a past defense. Their run defense has still got awful. I think what they've succeeded at and the Dennis Allen of all of it is being very aggressive as a defensive unit and that playing in their strengths because of how these games and how their offense has allowed these games to play out. In the sense of, again, going back to the jets of it all, too, like teams can run on the freaking bears. But when the offense puts up points quickly or puts teams in a hole and makes them one dimensional, it's making the game plan a lot easier for the bears defense. Now to their credit, they are playing well. Their past defense is playing well and they're opportunistic and they're aggressive. So if those things can manifest and hit, yes, they look like a much better defense than I think they actually are. But some of what is helping them is their offense putting up points and making other offenses one dimensional and that really kind of carrying the day. Because if a team just decides, like, look, one, we can get a lead on the bears and put them behind the eight ball. Two, we are going to run the ball and impose our will. You're going to see more cracks in the pavement from the bears defense. But to your point, worm, the game scripts, the opponents, how things that kind of played out have kind of helped them, but they've kind of answered the call on the past defense side. Erickson, what do you think? Yeah, I think that the teams that they've played have definitely influenced the improvements by them because look at the Vikings. You look at the Eagles. You look at the jets. Yes, and offensive, we were excited about coming off a monster game against the Lions defense is so bad, right? It's like the total opposite. And I think that part of the reason we said, and you mentioned this, where it's complimentary football, where Ben Johnson is helping out his defense because he's playing bully ball and because he's controlling the time up possession. So what's the best defense is off the field, right? You can't score as long as we have the ball. So that's how we're going to run our games. And I think that was really helping the defense look better on paper. And yeah, it's like if the only opposing team only runs 32 plays, then yeah, it's going to be an easy day at the office for that specific defense. And I like to say this week against the Packers, oh, well, this is where they get exposed. This is the best offense they've faced since week one, but the Packers Office of Line is horrible. So really, is it a best offense that they have faced? That remains to be seen. So I do think that the Bears definitely deserve credit for playing much better over the last couple of weeks. However, when they do run into a legitimate top 10 offense, which I don't think they have faced since week one, when they gave up over 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, who may or may not be top 10 offense. They are at least right now through the first month of the season, based on who they have played. I do think that it may be a slap in the reality for the Bears defense. But when it comes to the Packers, like I'm not ready to say the Packers are top 10 offense, even though I think Jordan Love is one of the best or quarterbacks that they have faced. The offensive line in Green Bay is just, it's so, so shaking. It's just unreliable. Erickson, that's a really good point, man. Like you bring it up. I just looked at the time of possession of each one of these games. And the Bears have had a 32, 34, 36 minutes. I wasn't aware of how much the Jets just didn't do just barely. They had the ball play 17 minutes. Yeah, like you can't you can do anything when you have the ball that little. They ran 32 plays to the Bears 89 and that's, that's insane. I need to tell everybody about a new prediction market called polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in. And sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They are so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $25 on your first trade when you deposit just $10. And now they've launched a new feature squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the polymarket app today and use FPP OD when you sign up. That's FPP OD to get $25 free after you deposit just $10. I'm Hamza and I'm Martin and we're the host of Out of Character. It's a podcast. I know there's a lot of them going around, but why should you listen hours? Well, we're only the best podcast in the entire world and we talk about pretty much everything under the sun. For example, music we're listening to, underground music, trending music, drama in music worlds. Yes, sometimes we even talk about just everyday mundane situations in our lives like the cool Uber driver we just had or the food we just say that is surprisingly delicious. Or we'll talk about the Med Gala and the looks that they wore. Are they awesome? Are they trendy? Come find out because our opinion matters and so does yours. And this is a place where all of our minds can come together and connect. So what are you waiting for? Come connect with us. Listen out of character from Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Pods or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Kylie Breikman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane Cash McDonald, and we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists podcast. We improvise character comedy podcasts where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is faux journal, I don't know if you guys heard of faux journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. Yeah. So we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No! I've been dying too! I'm so sorry, I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald at the Wonderland Bookstore, 14th. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Doc 30. No way! We'll have to come to the last bookstore, though. Kim Catrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday! A panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you get the ovals here, the eyelashes hate each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists on the iHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcast, all about robbery, fraud and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Deppery, Lamorne Morris and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? You're a generational yapper, like me, that's why I had to make yapping a job. And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s, all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents, tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Scam Goddess! Let's go to our reality check, guys. This is where we can sort of present a conclusion versus an overreaction, try to work through together, is this a legitimate reaction or an overreaction, Erickson, what's your reality check of the week? Can the Packers be fixed? So dovetails right from the conversation we just had about the bares and the Packers, that's the matchup that they have this week, where the Packers are catching two and a half points at home against, it was just announced Tyson Beijing, who we're going to be starting in this game on the road in Green Bay. We talk about this on the look ahead show, Worm, and we both like the Packers getting points at home as home underdogs in a divisional matchup. But it does not feel great because of how bad the Packers have been straight up and against the spread, they barely go to Tampa Bay against Jalen Daniels making his first NFL start and win that game now. Upon rewatch, they definitely had opportunities to put that away Caleb Johnson, of course, had a fumble at the three hour to get them all to the bucket of years. And then Jordan loved through another interception in the red zone. So they had opportunities to kind of close out the game. So I don't think that the three point line is this a super indicative of how the game strip was, but they still let the Tampa Buccaneers hang around. And when you are facing a quarterback, an undraft rookie for agent and you barely squeak out with a win, like, that just goes to show that this team is not one that you can trust in any way, shape or form, basically not the same type of team since they lost Micah Parsons last year. And I looked at more in terms of his timetable. The latest from Tom Pellicero was that November is likely the most time he would be actually returning for the Green Bay Packers. So can they tread water this long enough to get him back? They also just put Edren Cooper, who looks like he has a torn Achilles. So he's not going to be helping out that defense anymore, one of their starting linebackers. Offensive line is horrendous. They had ten penalties or they had four penalties just on the offensive line against Tampa Buccaneers. But one saving grace though, if they're offense, we Jordan love can just give him enough time besides the Bears this week at home. They get Dallas Detroit Carolina. So can Jordan love play well enough with the really talented group of skill players he has? Tucker Kraft, we saw have his best game in the season this week against the box. Golden is cooking, Christian Watson is cooking. Can the offense keep them afloat long enough for them to get Micah Parsons back and keep them in contention? I pose that question to you guys. That line by the way for this week. game has moved from one and a half to two and a half that the Packers are getting. Yeah, and that is, and I, and I've already been announced as you starting this week for the packers. There's going to win that. Yeah, we're back. Yeah. Dude, if they're able to keep the boat from capsizing, it's going to have to be because of Jordan love in the passing attack, because that's the only, and I'm going to use this term lightly, the only superpower that they have, that's it, like they can't run the ball. They can't stop the run. Their past defense is woeful. They can't pressure the quarterback, although they, they did start out with a top-down pressure rate in the first few weeks. It's kind of falling off a little bit, but like, so if they can keep the boat afloat, it's going to have to be on the back of Jordan love. He's going to have to carry this team. He will have to do that. There's next few opponents, maybe it just depends on what version of Jordan love the version we've gotten so far this season. I say no, but we also know that he does have the ability to go on these hot, these pronounced hot streaks. But again, as a pressure sensitive quarterback and some honestly got awful pressure versus clean pocket splits, maybe not. We got to get him to Toyota Thon. If we can get Jordan love to Toyota Thon, then he can step up like he usually does that time of year. I feel like Jordan love is a good enough quarterback that I think he can write the ship and carry them. I don't know that he's a good enough quarterback that I am like confident that he will. I think it is on the table. He is that good, but he is not so good that it's like, Oh, well, if he's there, he can solve everything like it could happen. I don't know that it will devote to your point. I'm going to pull up here just to make the playoff odds. What do you think it is for the Packers right now? Cheese. They're tuned to probably much more generous than it should be. I would say they're probably like plus one 15. I would be just going to say the same thing probably like plus one 15 consensus odds on BettingPros.com right now. And this is consensus updated as of like, just to make the playoffs plus two 20. Oh, okay. I agree with that number. I didn't think that it was going to be that high, but I agree. The market is very, very low in the Packers and they get it right when you know, when you are the team that breaks the Buccaneers, Oh, and 12 against the spread, against the spread streak. You're that team like the market is going to absolutely bury you. I mean, they're facing a backup quarterback, which your love is their starter and their catching points. Like that tells you exactly how the market feels about the Packers. Yeah. And again, I mean, we kind of elutist, but like bears, cowboys, lions, panthers, patriots, Vikings, Rams, Saints, bills, dolphins, bears, Texans, lions. That's not an easy schedule for the rest of the way outside of the one game against Miami. Because there are a lot of teams that that could hand this team a loss. So, yeah, that's that's on the Packers. Yeah, I lean towards they can be fixed, but I don't know that I'm betting that they will be. But it's on the table. Debra, what's your reality? Check. I'm going to frame this and I'm just going to start this off with there's a team out there that is two and two, but yet they are bottom 10 and EPA per play. They're bottom three and EPA per dropback. They are seventh worst in EPA per or excuse me, passing success rate. They're also on the defensive side, seventh worst and EPA per play. They are also on the defensive side, ninth worst and EPA per dropback. They're also on the defensive side, bottom 10 and almost every single metric. So with saying all of this, I'm going to tell you that I do not care that the Indianapolis Colts are two and two, I think that they are a broken operation and the head coach in GM must be fired because I don't care that they've won two games. I don't care that in two of those games, they have put up 30 points. If you look at the box scores, there is no way outside of Jonathan Taylor doing Jonathan Taylor things and he's the only reason this team is two and two because that man by himself will them to two victories outside of that, this team is broken. They have made bad and buffoon moves after buffoon moves. You look at Shane Stuykin, can't get good quarterback play. Does get good quarterback play starts to fall off quarterback. It's hurt. What do him and Chris Bauer doing the offseason? Let's invest in the quarterback coming off the Achilles terror and whoa, we're so surprised that Daniel Jones looks like 2025 Kurt Cousins trying to move around and he's limiting in this entire offense. We're so surprised that we spend two first round picks and go a trade for Saul Skarder who's getting burnt on the defensive side of the ball. This organization has lost its way they have last year was an entire fluke. Head coach in GM should be fired. When we were arguing about the Texans earlier, Diva, I had forgotten that this was your reality check. And then when we got here, I was, oh yeah, that's why he kept bringing up the cults law of the Texans because they suck real, they suck warning. Yeah. Dude, he was so bad. This commander is like, I couldn't believe I laid the points at the call to watching Daniel Jones play. And then Jay or Marcus Murray out of goes down and they put in athin Cully Commandess. Caliac Manus. Caliac Manus. We looked it up last night on the show team. I mean, I mean, a seventh round rookie quarterback coming in, if they had been facing any other quarter back and he made some plays, right? Especially downfield again, Mary was far from up before he got hurt too. Saw Skarner getting absolutely cooked last couple of weeks. He's been cooked by Traylon Merck's, Diamy Brown, and Xavier Hutchinson for massive gains. Saw Skarner. So 58 snaps played in week four gets the commanders, 95% snaps here. He let four catch for 117 yards and touched down on five targets in coverage. That was the most yards allowed in a game by Saw Skarner. And this was not terrible. And this was not to fond it like, this was bad wide receivers who were making plays on Saw Skarner, who they traded multiple first round picks to acquire and Dale Jones, third horse and EPA for dropback this season. So yeah, this is a team that I was very hesitant to buy in on. It was like the team I probably liked the least may you see South. And there's nothing I've seen through four weeks where I'm like, man, they really exceeded expectations. I want some saw stats right now. It's really bad. 75 qualifying corners, Saw Skarner, fifth highest EPA per target, Saw Skarner, 10th highest pass rating allowed, it's not good. And you traded the other thing that makes us so, so terrible. You look at the Chris Ballard of this. He traded two first round picks. Did everybody see what Joey Porter Jr. went for? Did you? Did you? Okay, so to me, if you look at the pie chart of assessing blame of this situation, I do think it's like 80% GM, like also building a wider ski broom that is dependent upon one player that is not healthy. The entirety of the offseason. And oh my gosh, he's already out with an injury. It's a dereliction of duty by Chris Ballard. I think Shane Steinke is still like a competent and maybe even good head coach. Having said that when you fire a GM, I am a believer that the GM should be able to pick their head coach. It probably makes sense to just clean house entirely. But if I was a team that needed a head coach next year, I would happily hire Shane Steinke in. Just don't let him develop a quarterback. But I agree with you. Is he Ben Johnson? No. But I think he's a good offensive head coach. This is to me a GM issue through and through. The roster is bad and the way they have gotten to this roster, trading way picks and overpaying injured players and overpaying Daniel Jones coming off in Achilles, right? Like if Patrick Mahomes tears Achilles, you say, you know what? He's so great. You have to just trust he's coming. This is Daniel Jones. We're talking about like to me, this is almost entirely on the GM. We got to get Shane Steinke to be the officer coordinator for the Texans. That's what we need. I remember that. I said it back to Philly. It's fine. He's for that too. Yes. I mean, I'm thinking like with Shane's, I'm like, if Zack Taylor gets fired this year and since he, I think that's an interesting thing. I mean, if Dan Quinn gets fired, he goes to Paragene Daniels. I mean, the only thing I'll lay it at the, at the feet of Shane Steinke is the ability. They picked their quarterback and they did not develop him and I understand there's a lot of Anthony Richardson in a long conversation to be had with that. But also when you're at like, it is laid at your feet to select your quarterback and to develop them and you fail miserably at that. That also, you know, he's got to take some moments. I mean, I mean, it worked before Daniel Jones got hurt. Like it was. Well, it was also one of the proof of concept was that I mean, but the fact that they, they doubled down down, like, okay, we'll just run it back to like, there's no way this is going to work. Like there's like no way this is going to work again. They were like, it's early on. He legit cannot move like everybody saw and if you haven't seen that horrible play versus the commanders this last week, where Daniel Jones likes a statue and then he gets knocked over like like he's some kind of plastic mannequin. He can't move. But again, why are you bringing him back to direct this offense versus like, I said for the entire of the off season, what would this offense and this team look like if they'd assigned Malik Willis instead of bringing Daniel Jones back. So bad. Uh, let's get to my reality check. Uh, and again, this isn't me saying I definitively believe it. It's, it's asking you guys if it's an overreaction or not. I'm saying that 49ers are the best team in football. Um, I was impressed. The Broncos have not been some great team that it's super impressive to beat. I was impressed by the Niners are banged up right. No, Nick Bosa, no, a lot of players, I didn't feel like they brought their a game. And I still never felt like that game was, was ever going to have different direction other than like a seven to 10 point win for them. They ended up winning by double digits 10 point 24 to 14 against the Broncos and while the Broncos haven't looked great this year. This is still a team that was a bonus injury away from being in the Super Bowl a year ago that does have lots of talent I know Cirtan got hurt in this game But like there is a lot of talent on that defense and I mean the Niners haven't allowed a sack this season the broadcast was talking about that a lot during this game They've yet to allow a sack Brock Purdy is looked like an MVP which I talked about on the show last week and Like their schedule it has not been a murderers row But they did destroy the Rams again. We've talked a lot about the travel stuff there They did what they should have done against the dolphins, which is beat them down They beat a cardinals team that has looked pretty frisky and like easily could have beaten the Giants this week and You know it's taking not some other teams and then the Broncos again They went handedly if you look at point differential This is the best team in football, which is a simplistic stat, but just to point it out They're the only team in the NFL that is top three in both points scored and top three and in fewest points allowed They've just looked really really good substation issues be damned and This is despite having a ton of injuries and you know Kyle Shanahan dealing with the concussion stuff and the car accident and the offseason just everything that I felt like it could have been going against them this summer and early in the September They've just looked really really awesome and I actually expect them to lose this week against the Seahawks because Mike McDonald does an amazing job His defenses against Kyle Shanahan offenses, so I'm not saying they're going on defeated or anything like that I just think that they are the best team in football right now and and I'm curious what you guys think is that a You know conclusion or an overreaction Debra. I was prepared to come in here and kind of push back a little bit But I mean, I'm looking at just around the NFL if they're not the best team in football then who we making the case No But to your point though the only other four in O team and I think we could even like The chiefs like the chiefs you can make the bills, but the bills don't have the defensive side I wouldn't make a case for the bills. I think they're too reliable to the offense You know who I was I was thinking about this this morning actually I was trying to think who are the teams that I would that I would put it gets denied because it's a great question by you Debra And I I said the Niners one I went to the Chiefs is to I went to I still think the Seahawks and then the Jags were my four Yeah, so chiefs Jags and Seahawks were the three teams where I'm like I have a lot of belief in them in in certain ways on both sides of the ball Not in every way, but but they are more well-rounded very good teams. There's two losses combined across those three teams teams are going to take losses It's fine those are to me are the contenders here. I'm with you on that and I'll also throw into the fray the right the Ravens if they can get They can get the defensive side of the ball like short up and stuff like that But I mean, I think the Ravens could be I think the bills could be there by the end of the season the Rams, but right now Yeah, I think the Rams are definitely not in that conversation like they're not even all my But again, like I was prepared to push back on this I'm like, oh the 49ers really like in a He started looking around and you're like, well, no actually that's He's right and I think it's I think it's interesting too because I almost went on to this thinking well We'll see what they do against the other like if they beat Seattle then you'll be proved right But the most likely outcome is whether they win or lose their prog in a split with the Seahawks Exactly, yeah, right so it almost doesn't really matter who wins this particular game Especially because 49ers have to go on the road to play Seattle if they lose in a close game I don't think anyone's a good look at the 49ers be like well I can't believe we thought this team was the best team in the NFL if it's a they go down to the fourth quarter last possession Brock Brady gets it or set there he throws a touchdown So I like this one a lot too warm similar to Debra I was like I can't wait to be like yeah, this is so wrong. I'm like this is like cold takes expose They're gonna get smashed as we can see I was like actually like I do Looking at their schedule. I'm like I wouldn't be surprised if they got swept by Seattle again Mike McDonald even dating back to being the defensive coordinator in Baltimore Last year No, didn't that because the Seahawks won I Honestly, no, no, no, they did lose in week, but that was like a week one game where teams are very different a week one Right But then they beat him in week 18 and in the divisional round Three times also three times no, no, the Niners one week one against Seattle lost weekly and then Seattle won week 18 and the division around Yeah, the games that matter. Yeah But I get like like Mike McDonald is has always been very good against shanahan offenses So like even if they get swept by them to me That's more of a head coach matchup thing than it is like like oh that means they're not actually could Team and And then the only other game. I'm like oh well that's could lose that is the chief's like the rest of their schedule But this could be a 14 and three team this season. I'm sorry. It wouldn't some I think they're really good That got me when Erickson's like oh, so they lost every game that really mattered. Okay cool Yes, yes, you're right. You're right. I would say to the 49ers have to Take advantage of when they have their healthiest players available, which I don't even know if that's really even the case right now With the roster. I mean the fight that Mike Evans like gutted out That performance last week where still super productive, but dude every time he catches them all he's like grimacing Watch that game like every single catch that he had he got up off the ground And you're just like yeah, man. I could tell he's feeling it like he's playing extremely banged up But I mean still I thought he led the team and receiving army still had five catches. I believe over 70 yards And the Buckingeers would love to have that kind of leadership in the locker room right now Oh, that was something we should that was one thing that we have not talked about with the Buckingeers But losing Mike Evans losing the Montaillet David a lot. Yeah, I think I can think of when you said like oh, so all the games that matters It's very reminiscent of Shooter McAvin happy Gilmore. How do you finish dead last like that was the exact vibe and we're giving off All right, let's wrap up with stock watch we've each have brought to the table a stock up and a stock down now This can be teams. It could be narratives. It could be players could be coaches you guys went very team heavy with your picks this week Erickson start us off. Who's your stock up? The Patriots baby or back Drake May is back baby Patriots posted 49% success rate high-scame and an NFL this season They're back Drake May looked significantly better than did the first three weeks of the season And although he still did some of his turnover things Get a formal interception not great. He was much more efficient looking a lot like his old self 2237 passing 269 yards and three touchdowns and he's making plays with his legs again Which I was really happy to see so he's not just sitting back like a sitting duck taking hits He's escaping using his legs. He had 54 rushing arts on the ground This doesn't mean the Patriots don't have problems still because they do I still can't really run the football and I kind of wish they would just kind of commit to one guy Because I don't think that they can get any type of rhythm when they're always exchanging running backs at different times So that's one thing that I'm looking to see how they do rest of season The schedule does get a little bit easier as we've talked about some of the fantasy shows with the Patriots Now the Raiders is going to be a tough test because the Raiders defense is like I think pretty legit Especially given how they played last week in the Chiefs I know they gave up 30 points in the end But a lot of that came in the fourth quarter with some of those big Ken Walker plays and then they had the kickoff return That immediately gave the Chiefs a possession deep in the Raiders territory So I'm very interested in this particular matchup, but all in all The Patriots were down so bad after the first three weeks of the season Drake may look like he had never played quarterback before and seeing them go up two buffalo and upset the bills yet again Was obviously great to say so stuff You want to know the biggest one of the biggest reasons outside of Drake may playing really well that changed things for the Patriots Ericsson Does that to do with using motion has to do with use emotion and using play actions Last week Josh McDaniel's dialed up motion at 75.3% of their plays 33.7% play action rates Those were both top 12 clips You look at the first three weeks of the season 53.9% motion 21.7% play action It's it made a world of difference and walking into this week So like I actually sat down on Saturday and I was like man I haven't gotten a Drake maze all 22. I haven't actually watched all of his games and stuff I sat down and watched all the all the games up to week four And I was like he still looks like the same guy, but he's pressing There's a lot to be had where he's just he's going for the big play. He's not taking the smart plays underneath Some what the what what I took away from that is the offense didn't look broken in design It was he was pressing and he was missing a lot of plays I do think in all of this though and I want to say this very quickly is that I think the shoulder thing is a real concern for Drake may because when you turn on the film for him his throws at certain points Where he's throwing off platform and it's all arm. He doesn't have his base under him The zip is lacking a little bit. So I do think that the shoulder thing is real now. How real is it? We'll see how it goes through as more hits pile up more throws and stuff like as we go through the season I do think that the shoulder concerns that have kind of come out in either are more legitimate than they are false This is a stock up clearly compared to the first three weeks of the season It's not like a stock up compared to obviously preseason It's just sort of like starting to get back close to his level But obviously we expected it's I don't think any of us expected Drake made a look like you didn't know how to play quarterback the entire year So at some point we thought this coming Eric's and you were all over this matchup for him Last week just like this is what happens in the NFL is you know the pages look as terrible as they can They go to Buffalo a place they played well before and they upset the bills and it's exactly what happened Debra who's your stock up The vagus read is baby Dude they're Three and one, they go toe to toe with the chiefs. Kirk O'Chains is making a few plays out of structure. Like, who is this man, who is this? I was not told of this man that right now, they are ninth best in points per drive. Their defense, Max Crosby does not look like a player that is on his last leg. This defense is playing very, very well. Like, they've got a functional offense. Now, I'm very curious. Like, as teams get more film on them, what does the offense look? 'Cause they still have definitive, like, they are having issues with the offensive line still and issues trying to run the ball. Brock Bowers is basically playing wide receiver, running a lot of hitch routes. He's excelling versus zone. But, you know, when they play a team that can man up and try to take him out of the game, what's that gonna look like? Like, I mean, they get the Patriots this week. A lot of man coverage. Does that look a lot different? And, you know, you have a lot of these other teams they've played to this point. Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs. A lot of two high defense. Not a lot of man coverage that you're gonna see. So, you know, what do they look like for the entirety of the season? But right now, like, could the Raiders make it into the playoffs as a wildcard team? It's possible, man. Not a statement that anybody, any one of us would have made. And I was very big on Fernando Mendoza, not starting in Kirkco looking good enough to keep him off the field. I didn't see this version of the Raiders coming. Sure didn't. So, hats off. Yeah. I mean, they, they're, they like the seventh best point differential in football. And I know I keep going back to that step. But I'm like, they have a better point differential than the bills, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Rams. I'm like crazy. Like, at the, at the core of all of the things playing football, score more points in the other team and don't give up a lot of points. So now, you know, it is worth noting that of the top seven teams in point differential this year, four of them are the four opponents who have played the dolphins. So I just, it is worth noting that that has been helpful to some of these teams. And now, not that the Vikings blew them out, but, you know, it just want to point that out when I met you, like, oh, the Niners had this great differential, the Raiders had this great differential. They have taken advantage of the dolphins. But that is what good teams do. I'm totally with you, Deeper. And in fact, before you picked them, this was going to be my stock up of the day, was just them looking like they belonged with the Chiefs. It's not even like, like, yes, they lost. Yes, the Chiefs, I do think are the better team and the deserving winner in that game. They belonged in the same field. That was not the case last year. It hasn't been the case in a lot of years in the Mahomes era. I was really impressed. I totally agree with you as a playoff contender. I think we talked about it a little bit last week at our conclusion segment that this team looks pretty good. And then to go out and sort of live up to that with a close game against the Chiefs, I was super impressed, Ericsson. Yeah, I mean, you look at Tototo with Kansas City, did not look overmatched whatsoever. They looked like just as good if not the better team on Sunday now, obviously, it did not work out in their favor, but still not overmatched. And that was a big litmus test, right? I wanted to see what the Raiders did when they were going up a class in terms of opponent and for all intents and purposes, they met the demand of the Kansas City Chiefs. So I don't think that, again, nobody wants like a moral victory, but I do think, or a moral loss, but I do think the Raiders did look really good. And that's why I'm not super confident, picking my Patriots against them this week. I think it's a really intriguing matchup with the Raiders going on the road to face the Patriots. Both teams kind of struggle to run the football. I'm actually curious what you guys think. So Action Gen T right now is fifth worst in EPA per rush this season. I think this team, if they actually want to make a playoff push, they have to get another wide receiver on the roster. Like, I think when you look at what is threatening defense's downfield? Literally nothing. Trade, trade talker, like that's not happening. So for me, the perfect guy, and I think I talk about it in one of the offseason shows is get Brian Thomas Jr. to the Las Vegas Raiders. We've already seen Jacksonville and the Raiders make a trade. Jacksonville traded for Jacobi Myers last season. And if you're the Jaguars, who did you lose to this year? The Denver Broncos. So you lose a tie record to Denver. You want the Raiders to beat the Denver Broncos. Who do you want the Raiders to also beat? The Kansas City Chiefs, at some point. Like, I think that makes way more sense than Jacksonville just keep him Brian Thomas Jr. in a limited time role when, hey, let's go help out our Raiders folk. Help them beat the teams that beat us in the Denver Broncos and get a draft pick or something back in return. So that's what I think they need to do. Whether it's Brian Thomas Jr. whether it's Marvin Harris and Jr. whether it's somebody, they need to add another wide receiver that can tape the top off the football and just give a vertical threat. 'Cause I think that'll actually help the run game hold a bit with Ashley Henty. You see this too with like a player like Jonathan Taylor. His splits are significantly worse when you don't have a player like Al Pierce. And instead that guy is like Juan Treadwell. Teams are not afraid of a Juan Treadwell. So it makes it easier to stop and keon on a running back like Jonathan Taylor. I think that's also part of the issue with the Raiders run game is they're not afraid of anybody taking the top off the defense. - If you look at the playoff picture in the AFC, like let's assume builds when they're division Ravens, when they're division Jags, when they're division Chiefs, when they're division. So you're looking at three wild card spots. Those teams off the board. The teams that the Raiders are competing with are the Patriots who are two and two and are coming off of your game. But like that makes this game really important for them. None of the AFC South teams, I don't think, the Dexas are O and four. We don't like the Colts. The Broncos are two and two and haven't looked good. So it's like the Patriots, the Broncos and then whatever's going on in the AFC North. Bangles, Steelers and Browns, obviously are all two and two or better just to throw it out there. We don't really believe in the Browns. I don't really believe in the Steelers long term. So again, it's like, there's basically like four teams for three spots. That could obviously change. The Lansing team is going to look like different by the end of the season. But I'm like, the Raiders are plus 165 consensus odds and betting pros.com to make the playoffs right now. I'm like, that's their competition. They just had to beat out one of those teams as of right now and their playoff team. And by the way, they have a game up on all of those teams. I just mentioned besides the Browns. Like, I don't see why they shouldn't be considered a team that can make the playoffs. So I think you're totally spot on here. I don't disagree at all. And what I think, one of the very fascinating things that I wanted to get Charles take on this. All right, the next three games are the litmus test. Give me the record of the next three weeks. Patriots, bills, rams. What is the record over the next three weeks? Did they go three and o? Did they go o and three? Erickson? Where they at the next three weeks? Yeah, because you could see them very much going o and three. And then being like, it was a food guide. I see them going three and o. Well, because they're not going to be favorite 90 games. No, no matter what. They could go out and kill the Patriots. And they'll still be under dogs in the bills. And they're still going to be under dogs in the Randall Matthews. Staffers heard. I'm going to say one or two, which is a, which is a cop. That was my initial lean to it. I think they, they sneak one of them. I don't know which Patriots, obviously, the best chance. Probably other than rams, I'm playing that well lately. I think they get one of those three. And then that puts them at four. And I feel like I'm, I'm also feeling I'm discrepting. I'll get, I'm actually going to lean the positive side. I'm going to make them two and one. I think you think they lose again. I think they lose one and if they go, if they go two and one, those playoff odds are going to turn to minus real quickly. So especially if they beat the Patriots, we just had a long conversation of, oh, Drake may is back, but they had the volatility of that. The Buffalo bills, Josh Owens had some stanker games too. It's not like he has and that defense can be had the rams. We just talked about the almost lost to the freaking Eagles. So I'm not saying they go three and o. I think they can get two wins here, boys. I think they can do black holes back. Maybe that'll be fun. And it tells better when the Raiders are good. Just flat out is no, absolutely, cosine. Yeah. All right, my stock up. I you guys want a team so I wanted to go actually with the coach. I'm just saying Liam Collin. We talked a bit about the Jaguars earlier in the show. How we think they're one of the top four teams in football. I feel like this offseason, obviously, there's always a who are the top 10 coaches in football, right? Everybody does their rankings and their list and has all the fun with it. And I feel like everybody looked at last year and said, we knew Ben Johnson was a great offensive coordinator. He looked really good in year one. He's automatically a top five coach already. We're just giving him that mantle right away. And I think it's dessert. Ben Johnson's amazing. Liam Collin has also had great offenses everywhere he's been. Designed a great run game. Had an awesome first year as a head coach as an offensive play collar. Revitalized a former number one quarterback like Ben Johnson. And yet everybody was like, he's really good, but like we need to see it another year. He's more in that like eight, nine range of the rankings. Whereas Ben Johnson was like number four and a lot of people's lists. I think Liam Collin deserves to be in that. There's a lot of really good coaches, but I think he deserves to be in that conversation as a top five or six head coach. Like, I don't know how much more we need to see. He checks every box we look for out of the up and coming offensive head coach. Masterminds, he's worked with Sean McFae. So he comes from that tree. He again has done it at both the college level. In Kentucky, he did it with Tampa Bay. He did, he didn't just call out a great offense as last year. He won a lot of games. It went 13 games. He totally changed Trevor Lawrence's career. He's made good defensive coordinator higher with the Campanilly. Like, I just don't know what more we need to see to say. This guy is one of the easy Kyle Shanahan or Sean McFae. That, no, we do need to see more to get there. But I don't understand the disparity between him and Ben Johnson. Other than Ben Johnson is a better quote in front of the press conferences. Because to me, they both have very similar resumes to what they've done in the NFL so far. And the Jags look awesome. I think they are one of the two best teams in the AFC right now. Again, that could change if the Bill's defense pulls it together or Lamar is healthy. But them and the chiefs feel like the top two four weeks into the season. And I think Cohen deserves credit. And his stock is up for me in terms of his ranking amongst all NFL quarterbacks, Erickson. Yeah. I could not agree more. I think that they're legit Super Bowl contenders. They find different ways to win. Whether it's on offense. Whether it's in defense or if there's a low scoring game or high scoring game, I think that there's one of the most complete teams in the NFL. And I think Liam Cohen's record, what you said, 113 games, 13 to 4 last year, right? Yeah. So he is 16 and 5 since the beginning of last year. Pretty good. Pretty good. And I think too, the reason he doesn't get as much hype is because he plays in a market. That's one of the reasons. That's one of the reasons why the same exact spiel of Trevor Lawrence and all these Jacksonville receivers, they're all cheaper than the Bears because it's just the Jaguars were the the Bears of the Florida. And they just have not as good as the publicist as Ben Johnson in the Chicago Bears does. And that's why Jacksonville was flying under the radar. It seemed like all off season. And I think that Liam Cohen even mentioned that he's like, yeah, we don't get as much hype or as pressed as the Bears do, but we don't care. All we do is go out and win games. And I think you're going to continue to see that. I think that they're just going to continue to go on a streak. I know they dropped that game in Denver, but I know when we were previewing that game where we talked about how Denver really sees it at the very tough players and it's not like they went out. They're going to obviously blown out, like it was a game where they had a chance and they just couldn't finish it out in the fourth quarter. So besides that, I mean, they've been looked really, really good on both sides of the football. Again, you talk about teams that brought back a lot of the same guys they had last year. No team had like less turnover than the Jacksonville Jaguars. And people looked at that. It's like, man, like you didn't do anything to improve your roster. It's like, well, our roster is really good last year. So we didn't really need to shake things up too significantly. I know that their draft wasn't exactly the greatest, but in terms of what they have and they're starting lineup and the pieces they have in place in Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen's offense for another year. Yeah. I think this is a great stock up to call out for him. You hit one of the two reasons why I felt like he doesn't get, it's the market size, why he doesn't get the respect by my national media and the national attention. Like Ben Johnson does. You throw Liam Cohen in Chicago and he's beloved by everybody. You are. Exactly. Throw him in a major media market and he is he's plastered everywhere. The other part about it is I think that people look at him as being a goofball because of his opening press conference, the fact that he's more mile manored and he's got, you know, nerd and the spreadsheets kind of vibes. But that's why people don't respect him enough, man. But again, like that can be why the Jacksonville Jaguar sneak up on teams, like, like, okay, y'all don't think we're good enough and we're going to put all the bulletin board stuff up. Okay, fine. The end of the day, we're going to have more points in you. Just because I brought it up a lot, they're second in the NFL and point difference for right now. They, uh, you know, second few points allowed. And that's not even the strength of the head coach, which is the offense where they're something like. There are multiple team. When you and Erickson, you brought this up when you have the ability to win multiple different types of games, like if we get in the shootout, we can hang with you. If you want to play grimey, we can do that. You want to run the ball and try to stop us. We can do that. And that's teams that make long playoff runs that deep into the playoffs because you are presented with all different types of opponents and some are going to try to take this away, this way, this way, it's going to be cold. It's going to be rainy. It's going to be indoors. If you can be multiple and play in a lot of different game environments, that's how you make a deep playoff run. When you were stuck like, if we can't pass the ball, we're kind of screwed. If we can't stop the run, we're kind of screwed. Like Parker Washington, this superstar we all love had one catch for seven yards yesterday and it didn't matter. They were up 22 to 10 late in the game. Take it back. Go back. He's like, all right, fight. We'll throw to Brenton Strange, a Josh Cameron and we'll dot not dominate, but like win pretty handily against bagels. And two, when you talk about, look at who Jackson was played. They haven't played anyone with a losing record. They destroyed the round two or three rounds over the ball. The only team that beat them right away, they destroyed them. They lost a Denver, but they still played them tough on the road. They beat the bangles on the road and they destroyed the Patriots like literally three of those four teams. We looked at as playoff teams, entering the season. And now they're going to be taking on again, another team that we looked at as a playoff team. That was one thing that people pushed back with Jacksonville in the preseason was, we'll look at their opening schedule. It's really tough. And I remember looking that as well, but then I was thinking, well, where does that come on top of the schedule? This team is going to be able to make a run because they're showing against teams to be viewed as playoff teams. They're dominating. They have the fourth offense. Fourth lowest odds to win the AFC right now. That to me is a mistake. They should have shorter odds. Yeah, they should. They should. And by the way, the bills, Reva's achieves are all shorter odds. I think that's a mistake. Parker Washington announced that game versus Cooper DeGene this week calling it now. All right. We've gone way too long here. So let's just give our stockdowns a get out of here without much back and forth, Erickson, who's your stockdown? Los Angeles Chargers again. Los Angeles of injuries, turnovers continue to destroy this team. The schedule remains absolutely brutal. We're showing Slater Joe Alt, Latin Conkey, all added with injuries this past week, Justin Herbert has become a turnover machine. And who did it get to play this week? Guys, who is it? By the way, just quickly, Slater is a high ankle sprain, the MRI show, the officially this morning. Yeah. So over. I actually looked at my offseason bet for the Chargers to win over 11/2 games. Guess how much I can get for my cash out. I was just happy that they'd let me cash out at all. But by the way, when you asked, they're playing the Broncos this week. Yeah. So another tough, tough spot for L.A. Lucky if you can get a sandwich for that, for that cash out, bud. Prank. Prank. Dibro, what's your stockdown? Broncos, man. Super Bowl contender. They are not. Bonyx looks terrible. I'll just say it while you're saying yours, because to save time, Bonyx was my stockdown. Dude, he looks terrible. He looks like he's regressed so much. People talk about what is the problem with Jalen Waddle? The problem with Jalen Waddle is Bonyx. The problem is Jalen Waddle is definitely Bonyx. And the problem with Bonyx is Bonyx. Also, we can add a little Davis Web conversation and tell this. But yeah, Bonyx is third worst in Yards per attempt, 6.2 Aries per attempt, which is the most in the NFL behind only- >> Don't have a clue. The Bonyx of all of this is, it doesn't matter the play design when he bails the pocket or can't throw an accurate pass. Does not matter what the play is called if he can't run it. And it's, again, talking about a team where Erickson, you brought it up earlier, defensive volatility. This defense doesn't look super bowl caliber. And then when you get to like, now they have a certainis hurt. They're rushing the passer, but outside of that, what are they doing? Well, they can't tackle. They have one of the highest missed tackle rates. They're got all flow defense. They can't throw the ball. And they can't run the ball. So what does this team do well? Nothing. >> Yeah. I totally agree. Obviously, like I said, Bonyx was my-- >> Chargers lockout. >> Chargers lockout. >> That's pitch. >> Lockout. >> Bonyx was fantasy QB7. Each of his first two seasons of the NFL, he has had one game this season better than QB18 finish. I mean, he just, it just looks like he, not that he, I thought he was great. I wasn't totally bought into him being some superstar quarterback or anything, but man, he, he looks worse. >> Anything, Bonyx gets a bright, strong type of benching at some point this season. If he continues to look like this. >> I don't think so. >> I don't think so. >> I don't think so. >> I'm just asking a question. Because he's looked bad. >> No, I think they're not going to do that before they put Sean Payton back in. >> Yeah, I don't think so. >> I'm just asking the question because he's looked that bad. >> No. I mean, I think that there's a common theme with, if you look at a lot of these teams that are stocked down, it's new offensive coordinator, new offensive coordinator, new offensive play collar. >> I was just going to say, he's been the worst first year play collar, Sean, man, you and Davis Webb. >> Mike McDaniel. >> He's pretty bad. >> But he's a, yeah. >> I would say Davis. >> Yeah. >> First time in a row. >> A lot of them have struggled. Like Declando, we've talked a lot of praises on. A lot of the other first-timers have not been good in their ability. >> Should we also give praises on the other side of this for Breditzig and Carolina with how good he's done. >> But again, again, he is the outlier. In this entire conversation. >> Yeah. >> All right. Well, good wrap things up there. We went a little along today. Hope everybody enjoyed the conversation. Reacting to week four. Four Debro and Erickson. I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. [BLANK_AUDIO] [BLANK_AUDIO] [BLANK_AUDIO] >> Hi. This is Kylie breakman. >> Angel Jaretana. >> Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonald. >> And we're the hosts of the artist on artist on artist on artist podcast. >> The improvised character comedy podcast where each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. >> Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. >> And we do a little Halloween sometimes. >> Does the Pope dress up? >> He, he winks on Halloween. >> He gets right up next to the microphone. I hear you'll get nobles here. The eyelashes hit each other. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the I Heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand up comedian, creator, and host of SCAM Goddess Podcast. 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