E376 Analysis/Betting Discussion of races 8-13 from Sar on 8/29/26 including the Travers Stakes

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Welcome to the sport of King's Podcast Episode 376 sponsored by Amwager. Go to amwager.com to see all their promotions, including the upcoming 0% takeout on win bets at Saratoga every Sunday. In August, that's right, you can bet 0% takeout into Saratoga's win pool in which the CAW teams are throttled down. This is the last Sunday of August, so take advantage of it while you can. As always, I welcome your feedback on Twitter/X. My handle is @Durby1592 and this week I am rejoined by special guest Scott Carson, my former sport of King's co-host. We're bringing the band back together for a detailed discussion about graded stakes races 8-13 from Saratoga on Saturday, which includes the Traverse stakes. We'll focus on finding and exploiting value. We will talk about our strongest handicap in opinions and how we might leverage those opinions using optimal betting strategies. Hi Scott, welcome back, how's it going? Thanks Chris, it's great to be back and it's going really well. I'm having a great August betting wise. I went to Saratoga on Winnie weekend and crushed it. Probably my best betting weekend excluding contests that I've ever had at Saratoga. So even though some people might expect that I won 50,000 or something, I didn't win that much, but I did hit about the 10,000 mark, so I'm feeling pretty good. It's a five-figure day, not bad at all. And you got to go to Saratoga and enjoy that as well. So making money and spending the weekend at Saratoga sounded like a pretty good way to spend your day or spend your weekend. It doesn't get any better. Well, yeah, I had a really good week at Del Mar last week as well. I had a book signing there, got to talk to a lot of people. And they stopped by and said, hello, sign of some books. It was really enjoyed. I want to thank everybody who showed up and came by and said, hi, I also want to thank Chris Bar from Del Mar, who helped with all my arrangements. He was a great host. Kurt Hoover for allowing me to be a guest on his Del Mar preview show. That was fun on Friday. And then Frank Scatoni had me on as a guest on his Sunday. And he kept me seminar at Del Mar. That was fun. And it was fun just watching, you know, horses live, really good horses like Knights Bridge that really, you know, shredded their stuff. And it's just, it's not, it's just nicer. It's, it's more, I don't know, just more fun to watch the top horses. You know, in action as opposed to on the screen. And so I really had a good weekend. So it sounds both of us are kind of coming in off as some good times at the track. And, you know, I talked about my books, signing my book, betting on horses. You can go to bet with the best media.com to find out more about that. If you're a new listener to show, I know Scott, you've read the book. You wanted to say a few things about the book. So what would you think? What kind of stood out? What were the things that you thought were the most valuable parts of the book? Okay. Well, first of all, I apologize for taking so long to read this book. I purchased it before the NHC. And I guess I, you gave me a, or I got a copy in the mail right after the NHC. I did not get a chance to read it because I had things going on. But I read it last week. And I absolutely love it. It's as modern as up to, and up to date as you can possibly be, and includes tons of great betting strategies. And what I like about it is it's kind of a best of the, it's kind of a best of the bet with the best podcast. Basically, you've taken the gems from the podcast. You've taken all the best angles and put them in the book. And now, you know, so I have it. I've got all kinds of markings. And, you know, I have a, I do this with books. And I always have, I will write down on the inside cover. I will write down pages where I find interesting info. And I have a bunch of pages marked probably 15 to 20. And for example, it'll say page 102, the ITP pick and strategy. 110, ITP pick fours, 117, the pyramid approach, which I think is a Tommy masses thing. The Kelly criterion, which, you know, I'm not a professional horse player, so I don't really worry about that. But I just, you know, the great thing is, you know, once I've done my handicapping and I have a horse that I like. Or a couple of horses that I like, I can look in this book, you know, I already have, I think some pretty good betting strategies, but you forget about them. And I find that, you know, now that I have a couple of horses that I really like on this card, I'm going to dig into this book and look at, for example, on page 112. There's an ITP strategy for optimizing your chances of having a big score on the pick four. And it's just, you know, it's just, it's just great info that is, it's, you can't find it in one place. I remember ITP was on the Jason beam podcast and I listened to that podcast a bunch of times and I took notes and I don't know where the notes are. But now I've got your book and, and I have all his strategies in here. And I also have other people's strategies like Paul Matisse and Mike Maloney and it's just, it's really great. There's other information that's really good like formulas for creating a fair odds line converting percentages of, you know, if you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning. You know, how, how that translates into odds, making a morning line. There's just so much here. And, and lastly, I'd like the live bank role contest strategies, which I may or may not be in the middle of a mon with challenge this weekend. The, the only reason I might not do it, I might not do it because I go into a wedding and, you know, we've all been in weddings where we were, we're, we're sneaking a, we're sneaking a race on our phone during the ceremony. I don't know if I can get away with that on this particular wedding. So, but, but regardless, I will look at the live bank role contest strategies because I never know if I'm going to find a gem that's going to help me out. Well, thanks. I mean, the thing you said about marking up your books, that was one of my favorite parts of the book signings is when people would bring the copies they've had and they show me where they had marked all kinds of stuff up because that makes it feel really good because they thought it was worth, you know, marking something in the book. So, I really enjoyed seeing that and it was interesting just to see the parts that they marked up sounds like you really valued a lot of the great stuff from ITP on betting, which is some of the best stuff in the book, for sure, especially for most players who probably can improve a lot more on the betting side than on the handicapping, you know, I start the book out with the lament. You know, I'm a, I'm a really good handicap, but I'm a lousy better. I think that's true for a lot of players. And that's why I spent a lot of time on the betting stuff in the book. And there was so much wisdom that came from some of the players. And you mentioned some of the top ones like ITP and Mike Maloney and Paul Matisse. Those guys, they were willing to share a lot of what helped make them successful as players. So I really appreciate all those comments. I'm glad you liked the book. It doesn't matter, it's better late than never in terms of getting to it. And hopefully you can put that to work, some of the stuff that you read in there. You can put to work on this card, both in handicaping and betting on the card. - Well, I can tell you one thing that I probably won't be doing thanks to the book. And that is playing the pick five. I probably will not play the late pick five. Or if I do, I'm going to single two, ten plus to one horses and then use a bunch in the middle and just have an action pick five for about 50 bucks that if it comes in, we'll change my life. - Yeah, that's icing on the cake rather than trying to make that your meal. That's a probably a really good approach. For most players, I think that's really good advice. The pick five is not for the meek. One thing I will say at Saratoga, that late pick five, they supposedly keep the teams out of that pool. So if there's one pick five pool, you have a fighting chance and it's the Naira late pick five. And in fact, all the Naira pools, they throttle the teams to some degree. But supposedly they're not allowed at all, at least. And they probably have ways to get around it. But that's probably the most player-friendly pick five pool around. Is that late pick five at Naira? But I agree, if you are going to play it, the way to do it is to try to make a score and not bet a little and make a lot kind of thing that you used to put the pool in the teased line. - Yeah, I admit that one of the reasons why I spent so much money on the pick five in the last few years is because we did the pod and we covered the pick five. I did not want to cover the pick five and have a pick five come in that I didn't play. And I have to tell people on Twitter, "Oh yeah, actually I didn't play it." So since I'm not doing the pod now, I really don't play the pick five very often. On windy day, I hit the middle pick five or one of the middle pick fives. And I didn't even play the late pick five because I liked the middle races. - That's the way to do it. - Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up because I will have to say that I'm guilty of promoting the pick five to players because when it first came out, what I liked about is tracks were promoting a low takeout and from a takeout standpoint, those 15% pick five takeout, that's really good. But in reality, most players shouldn't be playing that. It's a tough bet to hit and that CW teams just feast on those because they can wager so much more precisely. They're kind of eat players lunch in that. And unless you're really good at structuring your tickets or just really sharp player, the pick five is probably not the right pool to play in. And the main reason being, most players, they want to cash. And so you kind of play with what I talk about scared money in the book where you're afraid to lose. So you end up getting spreading because you don't want to, you know, because if you're betting more in that pick five than you're willing to lose. So you're getting spreading just so you can hit it. And you know, that's just the, you know, that is not the way to play long term on the pick five. So I, you know, I kind of feel a little bit guilty for promoting that over and, you know, we did on the sport of Kings. Partly because it was just convenient, you know, the light pick five or the pick five with all the big races that week. But, you know, in retrospect, I wish I hadn't pushed it or promoted as much as I had to be honest. So that's an apology I make for players out there that I'm, if I influenced you in any way to play more than you should, I apologize. Okay, so great. Let's move on to the races then really looking forward to this. It could be a kind of chalky sequence, but it's some good racing and the travers is really competitive. So, but it's races eight through 13, all but one or grade one races, the others are grade two and it kicks off. With the eighth race, the grade one, Alan Jerkins, seven for longs for three year olds. This is always a fun race. This year, there's a kind of a standout in Englishman who just, you know, ran an incredible race is last out. That was about two and a half months ago. He hasn't run since. He's the three to five morning line favorite might get even bit lower than that. Are you going to try to beat Englishman? If so, who do you think is worth betting on against Englishman? Well, there are two favorites on this card, at least in the six races that we're doing that I really want to beat and one of them is Englishman. All right, let's hear it. And, you know, I mean, there's no doubt that his last race was spectacular. And that's why I want to bet against them. They're just kind of like kind of like a further adieu's bluegrass was spectacular. He ran his brains out and Englishman did that too. And it's entirely possible. He's got good rest into this. It's entirely possible that he will be able to repeat it or just react a little bit and still win the race. But I think he bounces enough to let one of these others catch him. Now, he was kind of staggering down the stretch. I know he's got a good workout coming into this. He's got good spacing, but he's three to five. And, you know, he's going to be that low or lower. So I definitely want to look elsewhere and the horse that I like the most is deep flame. He's improved every race. He won his last was a good number, but not like a spectacular number. The spectacular number on Englishman, at least on the third graph sheets is like a minus five. Where's deep flame ran a minus one. And that's that's something that, you know, a three year old can handle, especially with good spacing. So I think he can run pretty well. He'd be my choice to win. I don't think I'm going to bet the race. I'm also interested in local knowledge a bit. I think that if I were going to bet this race, I would probably bet an exact it was deep flame and local knowledge and exact a box. He's not quite as fast, but he's improved every race. This would be his fourth race. And I think he could run another good race. So, so those are the two horses I'm interested in. How do you feel about Englishman? Yeah, I'm not as negative as you are. And it's just part of it is a horse is nowadays these the top horses. They just don't typically regress much, especially with a trainer like street of bow, who's really reluctant to run them unless they're fully recovered and ready to go because they just give them so much time between races. Back, you know, when I first started playing, these kind of horses would run back two weeks later. And then again, two weeks after that, you know, even the top horses would be running every two, three weeks. You know, more than a month was like a really bad sign if they didn't rent rent run in the last month. And then, you know, they run these huge efforts and they certainly would have a tough time stringing together, you know, those kind of races every two or three weeks. You know, you don't get the regression, but you just don't get it much at this level anymore and she's giving him two and a half months. He's been working like a monster sense. And you know, it looks like a big jump up on the sheets, but the horse, you know, the one race that were it got beat was going a mile and the other sprints at one, you know, laughingly easily, I think it could have gone faster in those races. This is a really, really fast horse. So I'm not going to try to beat it. Probably I wouldn't bet this race, but the only way I'd played as if I was playing some pick and it involved this race. And I would just single the four Englishman. So, but I get it. I understand exactly what you're saying. And those two horses aren't are pretty nice horses deep flame and local knowledge, nothing wrong with them. But I just have a feeling they're not going to be able to beat Englishman in here. Well, I don't really have anything else to add, but that's where the way you got to play it. You got to try to beat him or just single him, but you don't want to kind of do both. You don't want to like play three horses in this race in the picks or something or you know box Englishman with those other two, you know, the other sure anything silly like that. You got to kind of make a choice, which we're going to go you're choosing to try to beat him. I'm choosing not not to, you know, just single him. That's probably the way to do it one or the other. And you know, I think that deep flame at three to one, you're not really getting paid. If you're if you're betting this horse to beat Englishman, three to one is not a lot of, you know, it's it's not a great. pay off. But I might play a double into the next race because I've got an interesting horse there. And that's where I can make some real coin with a small investment. You know, you put 20 bucks on deep playing to win. You win 60 bucks at three to one. But you put 20 bucks into the double and you that that that that can be a lot more rewarding if you've got to play in the next race, which I think I do. Yeah, I like your way of thinking. So what what would be a bettable when price for deep playing? Let's say they bet Englishman like crazy at what price would you get interested in betting deep playing to win? Hmm. I'm probably six to one. Yeah, I could play him a six to one for sure. You know, there's some value there, I think. Yeah, I mean, I don't think you're going to get six to one, especially that one of the three buyer, right? But that but that shows you why you don't want to be betting him to win, right? Because you think you need significantly more than that three to one to make it worthwhile. And you're not going to get it. So like you said, if you don't know, if you want to play, I mean, you probably need to look at another pool. Yeah, yeah. And you know, I mean, I would not be shocked to see Englishman open up at one to nine and de-flame to be a 10 to one, but chances are, you know, if you look at the DRF rejected odds, it'll probably say three to one or four to one. So you know, I wouldn't get excited, but I might get interested if it's five minutes to post and he's still six or seven to one. And I do think Englishman will be the single on, you know, just to all the picks. So doesn't mean you lose anything by singling, as long as you just single, you know, cold single. You don't lose any equity, but you're not gaining much of anything. And if you can beat him, you're probably getting even, you know, more than you would by beating him in the wind pool. So like you said, looking at the doubles or some other pick is probably the way to play it if you think you can beat him. So let's look at that next race. Sounds like you've got something, another race that looks kind of chalky on paper anyway. And first glance, the grade one personal incident, a mile and eighth, for Philly's and Maris three year olds and up, you've got a rematch of the two, fully subscribed in the four Scottish lassie, fully subscribed, got the better of Scottish lassie in that race. Other six to five and seven to five in the morning line. It sounds like you might have somebody you like other than those two. So what are you thinking in here? Yeah, you know, the first thing I want to say is that personal Ensign was my favorite horse of all time. She, you know, continues to be, you know, I first went to the races in the 85, 86. And she ran and she ran starting in 86. And she ran through 1988. She was, I think 14 for 14. She won the Breeders Cup distaff over winning colors. But one of the most fun things, one of the more fun things she did was beat Gulch and King Swan in the Whitney at Saratoga. And, and I just don't remember, I watched the race on TV because we were sitting in the back. And it was just, it was just a great experience watching her beat those two really good horses. I think she was favored, but only slightly. And, and it was, you know, I, I will die always remembering the great races of personal Ensign. Well, her last win in the Breeders Cup over winning colors was amazing. It looked like there was no possible way. She was going to run down winning colors. She was so far behind, but somehow she got up on the last jump and stayed undefeated and finished her career. That was quite the race. Indeed. So, so in this race, you know, it's, if I was playing pick ends, I'd, I'd be flummox trying to figure out whether to use fully subscribed or Scottish lacid. And I, I think I'm, I think I'm going to go against both of them. I mean, I would lean towards fully subscribed only because even though Scottish lacid has better numbers, you know, except for that big race that she wanted to tell you last year, she hasn't really delivered since then. And she might have won her race or two, but she, you know, she looked like she was like this great thing and she just, she hasn't really realized her potential. So, I'm going to play a little angle, I see on Margie's intention. She's always been solid. She wasn't fast as a two-year-old, but she only had one race as a two-year-old. And she ran, you know, beginning at the early age of three, she ran pretty solid numbers. And as a three-year-old, she ran her best number in her last race, which was the bell name it aqueduct, which is at the distance. She came back as a four-year-old and ran second in her four-year-old debut, which is fine. And then she wanted a heavy favorite at Laurel. Her she number showed a little circle back into her projecting that she could run her best race ever. And I like that, I like the feel of the line. And I think she's given that she's a year older than when she ran her best races of three-year-old. She figures to improve. And the patterns right and she's got great spacing. I think that given that she's 12 to one, but with that year of improvement, I think that she could win this. And I will try to make money with her by singling her and pick ends if, you know, if I choose to go that route. But I will at least have a double going from deep flame into Margie's intention as a potentially big payoff action. But yeah, that's probably 50 to one, at least, that double. So even though you got that small field, that's where you could certainly turn two chalky-looking races into a nice score of Margie's intention can get the job done. So it sounds like you're probably leaning of the favorites you preferred, fully subscribed over Scottish last year. It's not like you're kind of negative on Scottish last year, but you're going to try to beat them both with the one Margie's intention. Yep. Yeah, I am. I'm just trying to pick which one of those horses is going to win, fully subscribed to Scottish last year. I've played that game before and I always end up losing money. Yeah, you probably, this is a race where probably most people will go too deep, they'll play in both. So if you do pick one of them and even if you think they're both equal, just pick one, you're going to get some equity if you get through the leg because I do think this is one where the beginning, you know, these two races we talked about, a lot of people are going to play, you know, English men, single, fully subscribed Scottish last year, they'll play them both. And that'll be how a lot of the tickets will have that structure. So if you can break that somewhere, you're trying to break it in both. Or if you just even in this leg, you know, narrow it down to one of the two, I think you get a little bit of equity. For me, it would be fully subscribed over at Scottish last year, just because that was when I was at Saratoga, that for that race. And Scottish last year pretty much can look like she had at one and couldn't hold off fully subscribed. So I'm not sure why she, I don't think she can get at any better trip. And she does seem like a horse that, you know, when she wins, when she, you know, she wins, she wins by a mile, but when she's in a race, she doesn't win, you know, she's so, I would lean towards fully subscribed. I was trying to beat those two, too. The first place I looked was speed shopper because we'll wall them and make a surface switch. A horse that, you know, there's some unknowns. So, you know, I don't, I mean, she, you know, I don't know how she'll run on the dirt, but I was just a bit too much of a stretch for me. And then, Nara Zuri and the workouts, she easily outworked silent tactic. But I decided just looking at her form, she just, I just don't see the race that went, beats the other, the two favorites and maybe, but that made me a little more negative on silent tactic, right? The positive on Nara Zuri. Yeah, I was considering silent tactic as a possible underuse in the super, in the, in the travelers, but given that bit of information, I'm likely to exclude her. Yeah, I don't, I didn't have a lot of other workouts to compare to, like, is he just a bad workout horse? He's not a very, he's kind of an ugly mover and he was, you know, he was trying and Nara Zuri was just sitting chilly and he couldn't, couldn't get to her and, you know, he fell back in the Gallup. It was kind of, you know, a bad workout for him as well or maybe a good one for Nara Zuri, but I look at her form and I just can't, I can't pick her off her form, but, you know, maybe she's the one of the bunch that I maybe can break up. Maybe Scott, he said, Scott, and we both, we're both a little bit. more negatives guys last year. Maybe she throws a clunker and nearest early could get up for second. I could see that. But she's only six to one on the morning line. So this was a kind of race. I couldn't, you know, these first two races and that we've talked about are there's just no bet in there for me, unless I'm playing a pick. And then for me, it would probably just be single Englishman, single, fully subscribed. That's probably how I'd play it. Not getting a lot of value out of that, but I'm not really giving up any equity either. All right, ready to go the next one? The 10th? Sure. The great. This is the only not grade one race. It's a grade two, the lake placid for a mile and a mile and an eighth for three old fillies on the turf. And this is one when we don't have like a standout favorite, the two to one favorite is the queen of Hawaii, making her second start off a layoff after a good comeback effort. Are you going to try to beat queen of Hawaii? Are you going to lean on her? What do you think? This race definitely a little more interesting than the first two. Well, you know, it's interesting. You know, one of the things I do when I'm handicapping, I try to make sure I don't know the morning line before I go through the sheets. And the reason for that is I don't want to be biased. I don't want to be if I knew that queen of Hawaii was two to one morning line, I'd start like trying to beat her right away, right? And the fact is that at least with this field, the horses are incredibly evenly matched. So what I wrote before I saw any morning line was play the odds, right? And one of the races on Winnie weekend that I hit and it was the Friday, it was a Brad Cox horse that was I think something bell Kentucky bell. Was that like a first time starter? No, no, it was a stakes race. Okay. Okay, Kentucky bell. Okay. Yeah. I know. Yeah. Yeah. And they're really sick. They're really six or seven horses on the turf. And they all had the same, they all had the same numbers. And I, you know, I was like, well, Kentucky bell, you know, trained by Brad Cox, written by IRAD Ortiz. And so many texts me and was like, why is she nine to one? And I said, well, because the the favorite who I forget who it was was taking a bunch of money. So, you know, I played the odds. And I, you know, she won at 10 to one and it was a good cash. So, so I, you know, so long story short, I, you know, when I, when I saw that Queen of Hawaii was two to one, I said, wow, that's, that's, that's not a great price on her. I don't know if that will be correct. You know, I, I don't know how they're going to bet this race. And, you know, even though David Aragon was great, it, you know, is sort of a guess. You know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I wouldn't blame him if, if, if the, the odds were wildly different because, you know, you're, you're guessing it's how people are going to bet this thing. So, I would be inclined to use all, but, and, you know, again, I, I mean, I'll play any pick ends, but if I do, I would go kind of deep and, and just for winners purposes, you know, just set, to have a winner, I would go with Coke emotion, who ran a really good race in her debut at Tampa, ran a number that if she runs that number here, puts her right there at 12 to one, then she's circling back to that. And, you know, I, do I feel confident that she's going to run that number? No. So, I, I, you know, I'm, I'm not going to have a win bet on this race, no matter what, but, um, but that too, I would take, I, I think almost all of these have a shot. And if I do do a pick five, I would single Margie's intention, and I'd go seven deep in this race. And, uh, whoever you pick, I probably have somewhere. Well, I, I agree. Coke emotion is probably the most interesting of, uh, rice horses, you know, going second off the layoff, like you said, had the really nice debut, um, which kind of showed that she has talent. And she got hung really wide, uh, in her last race. So it was better than it looks, I think, on paper, uh, you know, she was out in the 12 hole. She gets a new writer, a much better post. So for sure, you know, of the, the, the price horses, she's the one. In fact, of all the US horses, I think she's the play. Uh, but I do think that the five Naomi's kind of stands out in here. Um, I'm always higher on the euros than you are. Um, they've been kind of dominating these races at Saratoga. And I've cashed and getting some pretty good prices on some of them. So if this horse, the five Naomi's doesn't go off favored, I think it's a, a really good play. Um, and horse just won a group two. Um, was pretty impressive in that race. She, and all her races, she can kind of sit mid-pack. She, she makes a move and just finishes her races off really nice. Her race before that, she also won. It wasn't a great at stake. But, um, you know, she just typically breaks well. She settles. She can beat, she's been down on the rails. She's been in between horses. She seems to relax regardless and, and finish her races really well. So I think she kind of stands out in here. She's been in the US for a while in the Chad Brown barn. She's got a lot of works. I was able to watch them on X, X B TV. She's out working everybody that she's trained with. Um, you know, she gets flavian Pratt. Uh, I think she kind of stands out. Now, is she a good bet? Well, not if she gets bet down below her morning line, which I think could very well happen. But I think she would be the strong lean for me. The possible wind bet would be coke emotion. And those would be the only two I would probably use if I were playing any kind of picks. So you and I see this similarly other than, um, you know, the, the, the shipper. All right. Uh, gaining all stat on that one. Uh, well, you know, it's interesting. It deep learning looks like a really interesting horse. And I think, uh, Pratt gets off and Manifranco gets on. I love the line. I, I, I absolutely adore this sheet line. And she's explosive. Um, but you know, so she could win this race at four to one. And, uh, and I, and I think she could, she could beat the horse that Pratt, uh, is on because you, you just don't know until they run, you don't know if they're going to, um, if they're going to do it. But, but I, but I certainly would include, uh, Naomi's, uh, in, in the pick five. But, um, so deep learning, though, just has, just such a beautiful line. Her first race off of that was a little bit better than her best race as a two year old. And what I'm hoping is that she gets beat here. I would include her in the pick five. But I'm hoping she gets beat here and doesn't look very good. And then I'm going to crush her in her next race. Yeah, she's the second most likely winner of the race. I'd say behind Naomi's quite significantly behind. But, um, I don't, I wouldn't want to play her at the likely price. But, uh, many Franco has been riding well. And, you know, so I, I don't think, you know, Pratt, Pratt chose the right horse. And he chose the one you figured he would at the French shipper. But, um, deep learning is a good horse. You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see that horse win if the, if the French horse doesn't fire. Yeah. So anyway, we see this one real similar, I think, except for I just, you know, other than I, I rate the, the five higher than you, but the rest of the, all the US horse, I think we kind of evaluate pretty close. Agreed. All right. So we go to the next race. This is another grade one. The four go at seven fur longs for three rolls and up. Another big favorite, uh, and what could try not to be a pretty chalky day. This one's the five. Book of Dano. And if you want a hunch bet, play that double queen of Hawaii to Book of Dano, who's also the five, um, in this race. So, um, that would be your hunch, but play the, uh, the one five double. But, uh, you know, Book of Dano, very nice, cool horse. He's even more in the morning line. Are you going to lean on him? You're going to try to beat him. If so, where are you going to go? Well, so I, I have a hard time with this race because it's really hard to have a problem with Book of Dano. I mean, you know, he, he's always been fast. He ran fast as a two year old. He went to Dubai or Saudi Arabia in early in his three year old year and one. And then he ran a giant number last year in one of these grade ones seven for a long races. I think it was the last year. Well, he ran a good race in this race last year. But before that, the bigger race, the biggest number was the six for a long July 19 race. I don't remember what which one that is. But anyway, he looks like he's going to run that number again. And I don't see why he shouldn't. However, you know, these horses that run big races race after race after race, you know, they're not machines and anything could happen. So I am, you know, I'm going to play the pick five with a couple of double digit singles. I will include Bookham Dano because I, you know, I think that with the double digit singles and Bookham Dano, the powerful still be good. But I would use two other horses in this race. And one of them would be my top pick. And that is banishing. Oh, I banishing his scratching. So you can't play him. He's going to run a Charles town on Friday. Yeah. I should have mentioned that. I was wondering why they weren't running a Charles town. Yeah, that's where they're going to be. So I should have mentioned that right up front. I apologize. But yeah, no, can't play him. All right. Well, then I mean, you know, he was the only horse that had numbers that even came close to Bookham Dano. So so likely, yeah, God, this isn't going to make the whole sequence unplayable. But yeah. So anyway, you really hate playing the favorite. I do. But sounds like in this one, you're that's where you're leaning. Well, the other horse that I would use in the pick five, which now is turned into like a $30 action play is the other horse I would use is senior officer. You know, he's, he's a solid horse. He's four for six with two seconds. He ran two good numbers earlier this year. And then his last he had he had trouble. He was, he was, yeah, he brushed the gate. He was a little crowded at times. He was stuck in between horses and he couldn't get through. He was very intimidated or, you know, potentially intimidated, but didn't let that bother him. And he finally did get through any one pretty well. I wouldn't, I wouldn't put it past him to jump up and run up big race if Bookham Dano doesn't run a giant race. So, so I would use those two and, and, and, and, you know, just for purposes of the pod, I would pick senior officer, even though the seven to two morning line is a little light. Yeah, I, for me senior officer, his last race, if, you know, you mentioned it in the stretch, he kind of like really got shut off and had to re rally and weave through traffic. It was pretty impressive, but it was so, it was one of these so obvious trouble lines that I think he'll get over bet off that. It's one of those ones where like, you know, nowadays it, those kind of horses tend to get actually over bet were 20 or 30 years ago. You might have actually got some value out of that. If you, if you took note of that. So I, I absolutely think he's a good horse and I wouldn't be shocked to see him run well, but I have a feeling he'll be a strong second choice in here and not any real value. And I agree with you about what you said about Bookham Dano, but it's funny because this is the one where I'm trying to beat the favorite. So it's good. It's good. You know, we're kind of, we're kind of like a, yeah. Yeah, maybe, maybe I, maybe I can add a horse to my, to my action pick five. Yeah, now it's a replaced banishing because I mean, it's good. You know, I was kind of not willing to take shot against a couple of them. You were in this one. I, I, I thought when I look at this race, there's just no speed at all zero pace. And for me, you've got tip top Thomas who I think is really look strong because he's going to get an easy lead. And he's got a really strong golden pattern. I mean, he's going second off the layoff. I, you know, he's his comeback effort was good. He got run down by senior officer, but, you know, he probably needed that race. And that, that was a tightener for him. Now, second off the layoff, here's where you expect to see a really big effort. And he should get everything in his favor from a pay standpoint. I could see him jumping up quite a bit in terms of figures wise in here and giving getting the fact that he's going to get a perfect trip. And I think he will be, you know, the third choice in the betting. And I, you know, I really think he has a big shot to upset the favorite. So that's, that's the, this is the place where I think I can get some separation in the picks with tip top Thomas. And I might even try to, um, play an exact with the two him who, uh, has really become a better horse since they gilded him a few races back. His, he seems to be much improved. He gets a good post. He should be tracking on the inside. Um, you know, and his best effort, uh, definitely could give him a chance. I think to run second. I don't know if he can run down tip top Thomas. If that one gets, you know, the easy lead and improves like I think it will, but those two are the ones I'm kind of interested in here, where I'm, I'm going to try to probably beat Bookham Dano, uh, in the picks. I like it. I like, I like the way you're thinking, uh, tip top Thomas. I can see it. I can, I, you know, he ran fast as a two year old. He ran fast as a three year old, um, and second off the layoff as a four year old Kupau, right? So, so I, I like him, uh, him, you know, I was a little negative on him because he ran a minus two, two races ago. But you have a good point. This is a subtlety that I did not notice that he was gilded, uh, before his, uh, four races ago. I mean, after the gilding, he, he ran a new top and all three of his races since then have been better than any race he ran before that. Um, maybe, you know, he, he's the one horse that can run that big number that has already run the big number. And, um, and I, I did not watch the replay of his last race, but it says he was bumped at the break. So, you know, that could be, that could be any kind of major bump. And, uh, so I've got to inspect it because if he's got the legitimate excuse, then he, he also was against a, uh, CFR racing flow, um, closing favorability rating of five, which is, uh, it, it's hard to close against a number like that. So he is an excuse for finishing second, 12 to one morning line for the, uh, the second fastest horse in the race. Probably worth using. Yeah. Yeah. I think so. So this is one where I'm, I'm going to try to, try to beat the favorite, um, may not, I mean, I, I try to beat Book of Dan over four and got burned. And he certainly loves Saratoga. So, uh, I don't, I won't, uh, if anybody likes him and wants to single him in here, I wouldn't talk you out of that. But that's, to me, if you like him, that's what you got to do. You got to, you got to go with him and just him. All right. Anything else before we go on to the Pint ultimate race in the sequence? Yeah. We're going to have five for six of Saratoga, which is, uh, pretty, pretty spectacular. Um, no, uh, I don't know anything else to add. All right. So now we go on to the grade one ballerina, another seven for a long race, uh, speed figure makers will love this card. The weather is supposed to be good. So no rain, uh, supposedly, you got three grade one, seven for long races. You have figured the ought to be able to get a good track variant, um, uh, for this race. This one's for Phillies and Maris three year olds and up. Another one with a strong favorite ways of means. Another horse that likes Saratoga, a lot like, uh, sort of the analog to Book of Dano for the Phillies and Maris with the seven ways and means, not as short at nine to five, but a lot more competition in here with 12 horses, many of which have are pretty accomplished. So are you, uh, ways and means, uh, player in here, or are you going to try to beat her? Well, you know, that's interesting. Uh, you know, I watched the replay of ways and means earlier in the week before I got the numbers. And I really liked the way she won that last race. And I like the way she galloped out. Um, so she looked really good and I was thinking, I may just have to, you know, single her. But then I looked at this field and, um, a few things I realized, um, one is, you know, ways and means, disappointed so many times, one of the reasons is because she tends to get into trouble. And I noticed that, uh, she has never won a race with a field larger than eight. And this is 12 horses. And I think if there's any, you know, there's any, um, chance of her getting into trouble, it's today, right? With a 12 horse field, she's, she's going to get into trouble. And even if she doesn't get into trouble, she still might not win. But, um, you know, she ran a minus four on the sheets. She did that last year, and then she was off for a year. And she ran two races and she just repeated to the minus four. It took her a year to recover from that first one. And even if she looked good and I liked the gallop out of her last race, it's pretty hard to repeat a number like that. And, you know, given her, the price and the, you know, her, her, her, her inclination to get into trouble in bigger fields, I'm all about beating her. The, the, the only problem is who do you beat her with? And, you know, that, that is, that is the challenge. So I would probably go four or five deep in the pick five to try to beat her. Um, and I guess I haven't, I haven't decided who to, who to, who to, who to play. But I think that I'm leaning towards Killwyn. And Killwyn is, um, you know, I'm interested in her because she's three for three on the dirt. She won the test last year after she stumbled so horribly that if I had bet that race and I'd put a lot of money on her, I'd, I'd be ready to kill myself because that, that, that stumble was so bad and she's still won. Now she is slower than these on speed figures, but she's three for three on dirt, two for two on faster. She should be at least eight to one. She's got a great workout coming into this. She, you know, she won the test last year, then her next race was an off race on the turf. And then she came back and she won in her first race off the layoff. So she has the golden pattern. She just needs to really improve. And, um, you know, but she's got like her best workout since that layoff race, a sizzle 46 to bullet. Um, I'll make her my top pick. Well, this is, we finally landed on the same horse. I like Killwyn quite a bit. Um, the pace should be hot, assuming that art is faster and made of both go. There's other horses that want to be forward to, but those two are kind of need the lead types. You would think you'd get a really hot pace, which again should help Killwyn who always finishes well. And certainly has been really good on the dirt. And, you know, this was the target. You know, the last race was a prep. It was a perfect prep, um, you know, after having won this race last year, they're, they're coming back to try it. Not this race, but running winning a grade one at seven foot long at Saratoga last year. That was the three-year-old version now trying to win the four-year-old version. Same distance, same track. You know, that's been the plan all along. And not only that, um, the stable mate echo sound, uh, inside pretty much the same kind of horse, but it's a horse that wants to be forward. It's got the same, uh, you know, second off a layoff coming in off a really nice prep. Um, that horse is dangerous as well. And I would think from the rail, they will center to help, uh, that's probably the best chance for that horse to win anyway. And that, again, should help, uh, kill-win, uh, set that, uh, set things up for kill-win late. Um, so I went with you on kill-win. I, I think echo sounds kind of interesting. It, um, both those horses, I think, are capable of running much improved second off the layoff with the strong pattern. Uh, and ways in me means, like you said, isn't the most consistent horse. And what palmatees would say, uh, when she gets into a scramble, you know, a big field with a lot of traffic, she isn't really, hasn't always done her best, like you pointed out. And there may be some scrambling to do in this race. Although I have a feeling some of these horses, uh, you know, like are gonna be, are that seem way overmatched might be scratching. Plus Safi has three in here. So you gotta wonder if he's gonna run them all. I hope he doesn't scratch our disaster because that one hasn't run in a while. It hasn't been working real regularly. Um, the work tab spotty and he's got three entered. I'm just wondering if that one's a scratch, then the other horse I would consider would be the eight Mehta, who could be just the, the speed of the speed, if artisaster's not in the race. Um, that horse, when she gets the lead, she wins. Um, and I've cashed on her before. Um, so I, I think she might be the one that could go wire to wire and hear if artisaster scratches. Um, if artisaster's in, then, then I'm sticking with Killwyn. Um, if that one scratches, Mehta might become more interesting for me. Yeah, Mehta, you know, I, I recognize her as potentially the speed of the speed. Um, I did not have her in my list of five horses. Um, but I'm putting her in again, just in case that artisaster scratches. Now I do have artisaster in my five, um, my five horse, uh, pick five lists and, uh, yeah, I don't know, you know, I'm not sure why she's been off the whole time, but she's looked really good. Her, she, she doesn't have a gigantic number that she has to, um, return to. You know, it's possible they were just like, we are going to win this grade one seven for a long and, um, you know, maybe they decided to not run her in between because they figure she has one big race left in her and, um, I, I, I don't know, but I, I'd have a, I'd have a hard time excluding our disaster if, if she runs. Yeah, I mean, for me, I'm a more negative. I mean, it's been four months since she's ran and she's had three workouts that, that doesn't look good to me. That, that's why I'm having a, I'm thinking I wouldn't be surprised to see them scratch. Plus she's got to try to duel with me to every step of the way. So I'm a kind of against that one, especially as the second choice or maybe third choice, I guess. Yeah, I gotta look that up because that would be strange if she's only got three workouts. That's what I mean. Her, her work tab is very spotty for a horse that's coming off a layoff, you know, into a grade one race. Yeah, I mean, you know, her, her last workout was a sizzle 46, three bullet. Yeah. Has she really not worked out or are they just not paying attention in Florida? I don't know. Well, that's that Saratoga though. She's been. Saratoga. Right, right. So she's, she's worked out three times with Saratoga and maybe, you know, she's been working in Florida, but there, there's three different, you know, there's three main workout tracks. There's a goal stream, pacing and palm meadows and, you know, maybe she's just been under the radar. I don't know. I would, I'm still going to use her if she runs. I mean, I'm going to use her because I think she's dangerous. Yeah, if she had a better work tab and made it was in the race, she'd be really dangerous, because like last time she ran, it looked like she might get loose. And she did. And that was the time to, well, I think I played her that day against ways and means and issue, but in this field with the speed and coming into this race, you know, with such a spotty work tab, I'm kind of negative That one. We haven't mentioned the 12 Eclatont who is certainly one of the, you know, the second choice in the wagering, you know, she's run some big races before, you know, she's, and she draws an outside post, which at seven for long to probably not a bad place to be. What do you think of that one just might be worth getting your opinion on that one. Well, you know, it is one of my, that's one of my five horses and, you know, I certainly think she has a shot. I would include her. She ran, she ran a big race. She beat our disaster. That was a keenland. It was a great one. You know, the only comment I have is that she weakened a bit on the gallop out. She, but, you know, that was an April. So who cares. And she, she won her next race. She's three for five of the distance. I mean, that would include her. And mainly because she's run a big race. And it's been a few months since that big race. So I think she's a contender. The post isn't doing her any great favors. So she could run the, she could run a big number and still not get up. But I would include her. Yeah, I think she's one of the more likely winners, but just there's no value there, but she's certainly a nice Philly. I do have one other horse that I want to mention. Okay. And I like beauty range. I, you know, I think she's a great underkey. Now you got to figure out, you got to figure out who's going to be on top. But I liked her last race. She had some bumping at the start. Her, she, she ran pretty fast as a three-year-old. She's just been improving as a four-year-old. She's two for four of the distance. I, I think, you know, given the, the potential hot pace here, I think she could light up the super. And I would have a hard time not including her given that there are a number of horses that, that have big numbers that indicate they may run clunkers. They may all run clunkers. Any horse that's run a giant minus number. I think beauty range needs to be used somewhere. And I would, you know, I would, I would put her in my five horse pick five lists because I think she's just getting good now. And that's all I got to say about her. Yeah, I think with the likely hot pace, I could use her if I were playing like tries or supers. The other horse I put in even at a bigger price in that category is the nine paradise city. That's one of the saffy horses if she doesn't get scratched. All her best races are sprints. They finally figured that out. I think she has upside. She'll be finishing. And I don't think she's going to win, but she's the kind that could get a piece at a really big price and really juice up the payouts and like a try or super. So that would be kind of the bomber I would use underneath just because I think she is a spreader and she's going to be finishing in a race that has a lot of speed. And she's been in races where, you know, you talked about closer favorability. Well, she won a race to back with a CF. She came from off the pace, not from way back, but from fourth in a race that had a CFR of one. And in her last race, she had similar kind of trip. And one, again, easily in a CFR or closer favorability rating on race flow of seven. So those are really speed favoring races. She's been able to finish and win those. And now she's going to get an race against much better horses, but it probably a much faster pace. And she certainly seems to run better going, you know, the one turn sprints. So that's my kind of a bomber underneath a paradise city, the nine horse. I, you know, it's really interesting because I didn't know that you were tracking the racing flow numbers. But, you know, as you mentioned that horse, I noticed those two CFR numbers, which basically means because she won both those races, she will be a bold racing flow upgrade. And, you know, I know one horse player that used to, he hasn't been doing as much, but he used to always bet 100 to win on any racing flow of bold upgrade. But, you know, given how slow she is on, you know, compared to the rest of them, like, like beauty range. I wouldn't, I wouldn't better to win. I wouldn't include her in the pick five, but I think she's a reasonably use underneath that big balloons. Yeah, that's exactly the way I feel. Yeah, I've, Jake showed me how to enter, leave the racing flow numbers into your PPs on in DRF. So I really like that. So now you just got it right there in the PPs. So, and it's useful. I mean, you can see the races that kind of had extreme flow, either favoring or not favoring closures. So it's a quick way to kind of sense for what the flow was of the race. So it's really nice having it right in relieved with the PPs. So for those of you who use DRF PPs, you know, look at the racing flow website and you might want to get those numbers. It's pretty easy to once a week. You got to do a little download, but it's, it's very useful, I think. I do the download whenever it comes in because I never want to forget because when you're looking into the PPs and they're missing those numbers, you know, because you didn't upload them one week. It's like vexing. So, I mean, the numbers don't always mean much, but sometimes they do. Yeah, you can see the extreme ones right right away. They pop out. Yeah, and sometimes it's just enough to like get you over the top. Like you're not sure about the horse, but you're like, wait a minute. I like this, this, this, and this. And it just like overcame a negative pace scenario for it. It, you know, I didn't hit a 60 to one that won a contest for me at Monmouth, and that was one of the reasons that was one of the things that put me over the top. All right. So we gave racing flow a plug. It's it's cool product. It does help you spot those kind of extreme race shapes either favoring or are not favoring horses. I will send you my Venmo in a DM on Twitter. Okay. All right. So let's move on to the final race of the sequence. The big one, the grade one travers, the mid-summer Derby. I think it's become, you know, clearly the second biggest race of the year for three year olds. It maybe has always been, but even more so now. The grade one travers at a mile and a quarter. This turned out there's no great horses in here, but it's a great race because you can make a case for all of them. And the favorite is going to be the Derby and Belmont winner golden tempo, who I always try to beat has been has beaten me the last couple of times. But at least the last time it was a long shot in adult Derby, but certainly doesn't lay over this field. What are you thinking in here? Where are you going to? Who do you like in this, the big one, the travers? Well, I love this race and I'm going to be betting it with both fists. All right. There's two horses that I really love here. One of them is golden tempo. He only figures to get better because he's by Curlin. He's two for two at the track and distance. I don't see why he can't improve again. If he's five to two, I'll take it, you know, because I think he should be lower. I think he's the most likely winner. He doesn't tower over these though. So, you know, I wouldn't do anything like put 500 to win on him, which I did in sovereignty's last race because I was like, now's the time, and he was only two to one, but that's how I made a thousand dollars by betting 500 to win. So, I wouldn't do that with golden tempo here. I will look to my long shot play, which I'm counting on Golden Tempo to get in the exacta, and the other horse that's going to be in the exacta, for me, is an emerging market. He's the last horse to have beaten Golden Tempo. I think he could do it again. Since beating Tempo, he was near a hot pace in the Derby, so I'm just going to toss that race. It was only his third race ever. In the moment, he went to his knees at the start. I didn't bet him. I didn't notice that, but when I had this race, I saw that he stumbled. I watched the replay. He went to his knees at the start, and he didn't run a horrible number. It wasn't like a complete van him off kind of race. In his last race, he was so only bumped at the start, and that did not make the chart. If you look at the head on, you will see that right after the start, he gets hit by the horse on his inside, and it was a good shoulder check, and the kind of bumping that I think that really affects the horse. He still finished second in that race. He improved on his previous number. Basically, circling back to his Louisiana Derby number, and I think he can improve on a Louisiana Derby number. I don't know if he's going to be Golden Tempo, but I'm going to have a fat, and I'm talking $50, exact, a box. Golden Tempo emerging market, and I will single emerging market in the pick five, because if you have Bookham Dano and Golden Tempo in the pick five, you're not going to get anything. So if I'm alive going into emerging market, then I'm just going to make that exactly even bigger. I like that. Yeah, again, that was the weekend. I was at Saratoga, and I watched that race. I bet against the Virgin Market and catched, but he didn't have a good trip. He was also hung wide, and he was against the flow. That was a closer, favorably rating of four, and that was against older horses. They weren't grade one older horses, but those older and allowance horses that Saratoga are pretty good. So, yeah, I could see giving them excuses for those three races. Golden Tempo, you said you wouldn't bet. What price would you need to bet to win on Golden Tempo? Because it sounds like you like him a lot. Is there a price you would, what price would make it a win bet? I mean, I'd feel pretty confident about him at three to one. So that would be real borderline. Given that I really like emerging market, I don't know how much I would put on Golden Tempo to win. So, what would you bet, emerging market to win? He's on the inside. I don't know. I don't think I'm going to have a win bet on this race. All right. Yeah, because I'm thinking you will get 15 to one emerging market, and I'm thinking you will get. You know, you might get the morning line in Golden Tempo. I'm not sure that one is a little tougher. I think the Derby Belmont winner is going to get over bet, but I think a lot of people think he's kind of had setups and his wins. So I'm not sure exactly that. Maybe that five to two is just about right. I'm not sure. I don't think he's going to get bet way down below that though. So I think you won't, you're not going to be odds on or anything like that. So you're liking Golden Tempo and emerging market. So we're going different directions in this race, not surprisingly, because there's a lot of ways you could go. So let me get you. I know who you're playing. Yeah, you probably guess. Well, let me get your opinion on one horse that I think is probably the trickiest one in the field. And the one I'm not sure how it's going to get bet. And that's a seven horse sea strike who comes off that really huge effort. Last out. What are you thinking of that horse because that feeling he may he may get bet down below that five to one or he may not, I'm not sure, but that, you know, that horse Brad Cox, I mean, Chad Brown, Flavian Pratt off the big win. You know, that horse could take money. What are your already thoughts on that one and and Pratt, you know, gets off of emerging market to ride sea strike. You know, he he looks good. But jeez, I mean, you know, he's got really ample spacing between all his races. Now he comes back on only four weeks rest, which, you know, for Chad is kind of kind of coming back. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I'm going to toss him. I'm not going to use him anywhere. That's my feeling. Look, there was nothing wrong with that race, but it was a perfect trip. And, you know, he was he was really poised. Had I had I handicapped that race ahead of time. I would have absolutely crushed him on the win end because he had a pattern saying that he was going to run it. And a big number. And and he didn't run the big number. And I think he reacts to that now because it was like an eight point top and he, you know, he's he's got upside so you could keep improving, but this is this is one that I'm going to, I'm, I'm, I'm going to let beat me. Yeah, I'm kind of with you. I'm scared a little bit of that horse. Just don't know what you got there, but I agree. I have a feeling it will be short. And I'm not not worth playing, but I'm a little bit nervous about that one. So who did you think I'm going to pick? I'm just before I. All right. Well, before I give you the name, I will also be playing backup triples with this horse on top. And that is Napoleon solo. Yeah, you, yeah, I figured you'd get down right. Yeah, I, I just think he controls this race. I think I'm about the only person who thinks he's a really good horse. Nobody, at least none of the people who do podcasts or picks or anything. They all seem to think he's, he's no good. But I thought he got it just a horrible ride from Paco last time. He parked him for wide and you let baby vino come up the rail. I had to understand that ride. Sometimes Paco does some weird stuff. I actually think the switch to Johnny V is good. And this is a kind of horse, Johnny V, you know, and this kind of race on this kind of horse is exactly, you know, it's just tailor made for Johnny V. And I think he controls this race from the start. I, you know, I think, you know, mile and a quarter is stretching it bit for him. But, you know, especially Saratoga in this race, you know, speed is very valuable. If you can control a race, you have a big advantage. And if he's really eight to one, which he certainly could be in this field, I think he's, he's the play. You certainly know lock. It's just, it's a value play. I do think he's the most likely winner just because I think he's as talented as the other horses and he's going to have the tactical edge. But he's not, you know, miles above anybody. And there, I think you can make a case for a lot of the price horses in here. I mean, I had mentioned silent tactic earlier. I really wanted to make a case for him. Because after that last race, I thought, you know, watching that race, I, he's the horse I wanted out of that, whatever that was, the prep for this Jim Dandy, because if you remember, he had those foot, he was running with foot issues. Cassie even admitted, you know, he's, he's been trying to hold them together and he ended up missing the Derb because of him, but, you know, he got beat by renegated o'clock, but, you know, he had a bad foot that day and they freshened him up and he came back and he was fresh. He was a little closer to the pace and they probably like him. He never really spit the bit. And he probably got a ton out of that race. So I, I, and you know, him coming back, and that's kind of a normal thing for Cassie four weeks. He's not, he likes to run his horses. So, you know, this is, it's not a super golden pattern, but it's a similar kind of thing. And plus, if you figure earlier in the year, he was running on a, on a bad foot. But he's kind of like Napoleon, so if he's over those foot issues, he may be ready to run big. The reason I kind of soured on him was watch that workout where he just got crushed by the Philly and, you know, he just didn't look like he's a really good mover. So, you know, I would have to use him if I play any verticals, maybe even horizontal is a backup, but I just with the post. And the fact I'm not sure he does his best running, going a mile and a quarter, all the off breeding, you think he ought to be able to. So he was one I was trying to talk to myself into, but the workout was the deal breaker for me on that one. And then the other horse I'm kind of interested in is the upside horse. That's the two horse leading change who as look good in his first two starts. I think he could get like that the stocking of tepid pace, stocking Napoleon solo. So he should be the one closest. to him. I'm hoping they don't try to send him. They haven't done that before and I don't think they want to go trying to get a mile in the quarter with a lightly raised horse. They're going to want to lock horns with Napoleon Solo right from the start. So I think those two could go one, two around the track. Maybe, and just maybe he's good enough. You know, it's kind of a stretch for him, but I would be having a, I'd probably plan an exacto with him underneath Napoleon Solo as kind of a long shot. And then the other one, sort of similar to silent tactic, is the Puma, who is another one who comes out of that race, probably needed it, comes out of a prep race for this at the one at mom. If he probably needed that, you know, he missed the Derby as well. Now he goes second off the layoff. He could really improve second off the layoff. I've always thought he was a little overrated. He tends to get over bet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in there. To me, horses like silent tactic and the Puma aren't that far behind. Horses like Renegade and Golden Temple, who are going to be a lot shorter. But like you guessed, I'm going to go with Napoleon Solo. If I can get that eight to one, he's, he's to play, I think. Yeah, just a couple of comments on your horses. A leaning change, you know, in paragraph, they have the siblings and their best numbers. And one of the horses ran its best number rounding, but all the other ones ran their best numbers sprinting. So I think that it might be, you know, I think the mile and the quarter may be beyond this horses capabilities, but I don't know, they paid 800,000 for him. So maybe not. Well, I had also only a third start too, right? You know, against really good horses. But I wouldn't use him myself. I do have the Puma as as an underuse. And I, you know, when I see a number that's like a two and a half in March, and then they come back a few months later and run four. So it's a point and a half off its top. To me, that's perfect to run its top. And yeah, I think that so I would not be surprised at all. See the Puma in there. And so I will use him underneath. Renegade, I will use underneath, but I would not use them on top. I think the mile and the quarter is beyond its capabilities. And, you know, silent tactic, I do have as a use. I would possibly use under as a long shot. Not sure about him. You know, it's only Thursday as we were trying to. So, you know, there could be scratches. And so, you know, I have a lot of time to figure out what I'm going to do. But and the biggest challenge for me is going to be like how I'm going to see this race when the wedding ceremony is exactly an hour earlier. That maybe, you know, it'll be total reception time and nobody paying attention and I can watch this thing on my phone. We'll see. Well, you won't be the first person sneaking a peak at a horse race during a wedding. I guarantee you that. All right. So, looking back across these six races, what bets or bets are you most eager about making? Well, you know, I'm going to do I'm going to do a pick five. It's going to cost me 52 bucks roughly where I single Margie's intention and I single emerging market. And if I'm alive, going into that emerging market, you know, I will be doing I will have a backup with golden tempo personality insurance. I'm interested in doing the the double deep flame into Margie's intention for 20 bucks. I think there's some upside there. And, you know, and and and as I mentioned, I'm going to crush the exact it's a minimum $50 exact a box emerging market with golden tempo. I will have a try key with Napoleon Solo over those two for like 10 bucks. So, that's a $20 total bet. You know, just in case he wins, which, you know, I absolutely think he can. I respect your opinion. I respect the line. To me, it's it's those three horses, right? Emerging market, Napoleon Solo, golden tempo are the ones that can win. Yeah, it sounded like you really liked that from a betting standpoint too. I mean, with your your emerging market is definitely juices things up in that race. Yeah, yeah. So, you know, I think that's kind of it. I have some interesting angles in, you know, some of the earlier races. Well, if you got a spot play, you want to share? Go ahead. Well, I haven't fleshed it out, but I will I will mention that when Bill Maught has a first timer that's working well. And I'm talking about like a sub 49 gate work or a sub 101 gate work. They're live. And he's got one in the first called roughkin. It's 10 to 1 with Hoseva's Kano. And there's another horse with without good workouts being ridden by junior Alvarado. I think there's a really good chance that roughkin can win that race. Now, I'm not sure about that race because there's a lot of good workouts. And, you know, so I'm, I mean, I'm probably not going to bet that particular race. But I think the Bill Maught wins with a first timer two year old. It might be that race. But if it's not that race, then I'm really going to, I'm going to, I'm going to put a nice bet on Warfie in the sixth race. There's another horse that Luscano is running. And Luscano used to run, ride a lot of good horses for Bill Maught. He ran. He won the Brewer's Cup Mile Tourist. He's, he's won plenty. I think he was the rider of that, that sprinter that won the Brewer's Cup Sprint. I forget its name. It wasn't that long ago. But I'm beginning to lose my, my faculties. So, so I don't remember who it was, but I think it started with an E. So I would just say that if I decide I really like the horse, I would put it on Twitter. But I would say keep an eye on Ruffkin in the first and Warfie in the sixth. If Ruffkin doesn't win the first, then I think that Warfie's a stronger play in the sixth, because I think Maught's going to win with one first time starter. All right. Those are two races that I, I didn't even try to tackle after first glance. So that's good. You got me. I got a little action play on those races, Ernie. All right. Well, that should, anything else for me wrap it up? Oh, I think that's about it. Okay. Well, it's a, it looks like a great card. Let's support it. Let's support Sirotoga and Dira for throttling C.A.W.s. Let's make this a record handle day. Certainly has some good racing. That'll, pretty much wrap things up for the show. Thanks again, Scott, for rejoining me today. It was great to have you back on this Board of Kings. I'm glad to see that you're, you're still cashing. And hopefully we can cache a few tickets tomorrow. And again, I thank all the listeners out there for continuing to support the program. That'll conclude. Show number 376 of the Sport of Kings podcast. Good luck this weekend. And please enjoy the Brooklyn Bougaloo blowout. Cheers. Have a round. [MUSIC]