Speaker 1When people say, you know, crypto, it's like boring, I'm like, everything we've ever asked for, from regulation to the US Treasury saying stablecoins are one of the most important single things that we can do, and we don't think that the price is going to explode? So we still think that the price of crypto and Bitcoin is going to explode? I can't say well, then it doesn't. I actually think the whole thing is a super cycle. It doesn't stop. It doesn't stop? What does that mean? It just means it keeps going till 2030. We're kind of in 1997, 96, what happened in the technology boom last time. Raoul Pal, the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision and founder of Global Macro Investor. A former Goldman Sachs executive, he is a leading macro investor focused on technology and digital assets. The economic singularity is going to happen in 2030. The rise of agents went from zero to everywhere. By 2030, all the study of what we understand of economics, relationships between things, it's going to be so screwed up. We now have basically four years to unfuck our future. What did you learn in the last two years about how to allocate better? I've done nothing. Except buy. When? When I got two standard deviations oversold versus a log trend and I added more and I bought some Zcash. That's all I've done.
Speaker 2You've been early on some of the biggest shifts in crypto and macro, but being early and being wrong can look identical for a very long time. How have you learned to tell the difference? It's very difficult for you to be wrong.
Speaker 1You have to set yourself up where the secular trend's in your favor and then the probability of getting it wrong is much less. And then you can take bets on things that are more emerging.
Speaker 2We've done this six times. What's the question I should have asked you five interviews ago, but I never did? You've never asked me the secrets of my good looks. You've been pounding the table on Sui for a while now, and it hasn't been as clear of a winner yet. Have you actually made money on Sui if you look at the average buys? Or is this a thesis that you're waiting on another one or two years to play out?
Speaker 1Yeah, I mean, I started.
Speaker 2Hey, everyone. One of our absolute favorite things at When Shift Happens is to look at our data to improve what we're doing for you every single week. And one of the things that we notice every week is that we're not doing everything right. We're not doing everything right. We're not doing when going through our data is how many of you regularly watch this podcast but still have not subscribed. And so if you want to help us get even better guests every week, take two seconds and click that subscribe button just below this video. Thank you for being with us today and for supporting us every week. And now let's get to today's show. Last time you were in Singapore, welcome back to Singapore. Last time we did that was our first time together. That's right. This
Speaker 1is our sixth time. I know it's been Singapore twice, Dubai twice, Miami once, London once.
Speaker 2Yeah. And as you can see, there is some progress, right? It's a lot nicer.
Speaker 1The first one was a dump. I thought it was going to be knifed in the corridor.
Speaker 2Well, we're bootstrapping a media company, right? That's right. There was actually no other podcast studio in Singapore.
Speaker 1And that wasn't really a podcast studio. No, it was a music studio.
Speaker 2It was a closet. It was kind of like a music studio. So it's for artists, right? Don't pretend it wasn't cool in any way. It was a shoe cupboard. It was kind of a shit hole. Like even the place where you go to toilets was this Chinese toilet where you had to like, like sit down. There was no normal toilet. I was like, fuck man. Like, I don't know how long I can get these big people coming here, but it worked out. It did. You've done all right. So yeah, we had this beautiful toilet and we had the banana on the table. The kiss of death. And some wine. The kiss of death. You were actually saying like, I really hope it happens otherwise I'm going to get grilled on the internet.
Speaker 1And I did. I got grilled on the internet. Grilled banana. That was
Speaker 2two years ago already. A bit more actually, two years and a half, June, 2024. What do you believe today that the Raul I interviewed first more than two years ago would completely disagree with? The banana zone.
Speaker 1It didn't fucking happen. But no, I've said the same thing. It's not like I say anything new or interesting. It's always been the same thing. You need to extend your time horizon. You need to just hold onto this stuff. Be careful with how you allocate. And that's it. Do nothing. And you know, people just, we talk about this all the time offline. It's like, people just lose their minds. They can't do it. They just cannot do it. What did you learn in the last two years about like how to allocate better in crypto? I've done nothing. Nothing different except buy when it got two standard deviations oversold versus log trend. And I added more and I bought some Zcash. I mean, I've done two trades the entire year, which was to buy in whenever it was Jan, Feb, whenever it collapsed first, and then buy again in July. And that's all I've done. I haven't done anything else. I don't do anything else. So people kind of think that, you know, just because I look at the cycles and liquidity that I'm going to trade around it, I just don't do any of that because I just want to compound.
Speaker 2Can you explain a bit more how this compounding works? And if it really makes a difference to buy these like two standard deviation lower, when do you start to see that it makes an actual difference?
Speaker 1Um, you notice when the obvious way is like 2022, I bought, I started buying Solana and ETH in June 2022. I think that was the ETH low. And I started with Solana and then I bought everything in December. I, my P&L was back to all time highs well before the market. That's what compounding is, right? Because if you just don't do nothing, your P&L gets the all-time high when the market does. If you can, if you've got cash to add when it's super oversold, your entry level never gets tested again. Um, so that makes you feel good. It might be tested for the first week or month or whatever, but after that doesn't get tested again. And because you've added more to the market at cheap prices, you're at all time highs well before the market. And that's the superpower. Cause then suddenly you're really on the front foot and not the back foot. And you know, the other thing people try to do versus the compounding is the idea, this myth on the internet. And I was talking to somebody last night at a, at a Real Vision event last night is it's, you can sell out and get somewhere near the top, but you will never put the same amount back in again. You just can't do it. You just, it's impossible psychologically to do it. Um, cause you think there's always going to be the other leg lower. And what happens is, and you're seeing it today is people are trapped. Yeah. And so I just don't do any of that. So if I want to take money out, I'll take money out because I want to take it out for lifestyle chips. If not, I won't because there's no point because it's too hard to do. People think it's easy. People make it look like, you know, Chris Berniski can just come time the market, buy it at the bottom, come back again. It's not easy. And But it wasn't, it doesn't.
Speaker 2Ben Cohen, Chris Berniski. I mean, they were pretty good on the top, but then like they kind of missed the bottom.
Speaker 1That's right. And you don't know how much Chris has put in now. Is he up, is he putting 20%, 10%? And then before you know it, Bitcoin's at a hundred thousand and people still haven't got their money back in. So you end up actually underperforming by trying to do that strategy. While if you, if you just say, I look forward to those two standard deviation sell-offs or one and a half standard deviation sell-offs, then you kind of got money ready for it when it comes, you take it and you say, great, I don't have to do anything anymore.
Speaker 2Well, it doesn't feel good. I applied your strategies, this kind of, I mean, for me, that was a bear market. For you, that was not, but like, Well, it's a bear market, but
Speaker 1it's not the, I didn't think it's the full kind of crypto.
Speaker 2But, but I applied the Raoul Pal strategy. I mean, with this podcast, we're generating quite a bit of cash. And I was like, I'm going to allocate. So I allocated a lot actually every month. I mean, we're kind of like lucky to pick a hype all along Zcash. But did you buy, did you
Speaker 1dollar cost average or along the lows? To be honest, I just DCA'd.
Speaker 2I was like, because I was like,
Speaker 1Cause I think that's suboptimal as well. It's easy to do mentally, but you end up buying all the way down. It's kind of, I find the oversold part much easier than.
Speaker 2I don't look at charts much, like, but I was like, I just DCA'd every first of the month. And now where some people still think it's a bear market, we're kind of barely starting to get out of the bear market. My, my PNL is like two, three X previous all time high already. And now I realize, holy shit. I mean, you have to have the right picks, all that stuff, but like, I'm like, holy shit, it's actually works. It was so boring for a year and it didn't feel good for a year, but you're like, this is the right thing. This is one thing to do. This is the right thing to do. And, and you, as you said, like you, you, you, you're ahead now. And you're like, you start to like think, holy shit, if this thing, if this thing is just the bane of the bull run, like, I don't know what's going to happen. Like, it's kind of scary because you're already at these numbers. You never thought were possible just because of the compounding from the bear market.
Speaker 1That's right. Now the question is, is whether, because a lot of yours are in like hype, Zcash, et cetera, whether they retain leadership throughout. That's the hard one. They won't, they might underperform that unlikely to go the reverse direction of the market, but that's the big, big question then is like having to figure that out. Um, and it's not easy.
Speaker 2No, nothing. No, nothing good is easy. No, it's not easy.
Speaker 1Um, firstly, you try and set yourself up where you, it's very difficult for you to be wrong. So it's very easy if you're buying a smaller applications layer, great project, but if you're buying a smaller applications layer, great project, versus Ethereum, you know, what's the probability that you'll lose money if you're crypto goes up and you own ethereum very little over time it may underperform for periods of time so you have to set yourself up where the secular trends in your favor it's measurable it's understandable and then the probability of getting it wrong is much less and then you can take bets on things that are more sort of emerging um but that's what i try to do to make it easier to get right um because again you know we go back to the conversation we had the whole don't fuck this up thesis and i said that that 10 of stuff that you you fomo and mess around with if i look at that every time i lost money do you still do it with 10 no and i think i'm not going to again
Speaker 2why would anyone do this 10 except if it's their first time because you want to
Speaker 1experiment with a meme and you know you see people making money it just kills the fomo side of you but i've now become sort of super stoic about the whole thing um and so the art the question is when do you know you're wrong it's when if you've got a thesis and you're not seeing evidence accruing that your thesis is right and it's hard in crypto because it takes a while you have to you know think about you know what the technology is what's going to be built on it how it's going to work that kind of stuff so it's hard but i do question all that all the time and look at the metrics on it all but i don't make instant decisions
Speaker 2it takes a while because there is still this kind of cycles and because it's crazy volatile so i think we talked about that last time but it happened about bitcoin right oh 2017 20k 2022 15k five years of nothingness depending where you bought right oh i'm down after five years uh 2020 uh yeah well then there was 69 and then there was 126 but then you're like lower uh than six you're at 60 right so if you bought a 69 in 2020 whatever i don't remember when then like a few years later you're like oh shit like i'm still down i'm at 60 now and i bought a 69 like a couple of years ago and so it's and it was massively volatile in between so like there is this extra like kind of mind fuck where i mean eth
Speaker 1has been the best one for that it's like 2021 peak and then it's not like it's not like it's not like it's not like never broken that high again but it's forming this massive wedge it's like the most bullish chart in the history of charts and all you have to do is nothing and that's the hardest thing because everyone calls you a moron when it goes to the bottom of the range it's dead nobody's ever going to use it and then you know it's like it's ridiculous and you just have to say you just have to have a thesis and hold on to that
Speaker 2like the gold bugs had with gold for so long yeah but much longer than eth and like they're they ended up making money at the end but when everything else rips it's kind of tough to yeah it is to not for more it is what's the belief you held five years ago that you've completely changed your mind on i haven't
Speaker 1completely changed my mind but one of the beliefs was well there's probably a few things but one of the beliefs was that the kind of social economy would come on chain before the finance system did and it's going to be the reverse social tokens and all that stuff yeah and i still think that's coming i was thinking about it today actually i still think that's all coming and i think people can't see it and it's another whole layer of use cases now everyone's fixated with the finance system plus agents but i think i don't know if you saw the video that came out yesterday two days ago which is the new ai video so like on a zoom call you're speaking to an ai and you cannot tell so it passed the kind of tests of that the touring test of is this real or is it not and over 50 of people think it's a real person so we are going to have to have digital id i know people don't understand it yet but there's no way we can operate a system where you can't tell somebody's voice somebody's image what somebody writes online whether they're real people or not and you're going to have to do that because if not it's going to be crime central so i think all of that is coming there's so much that's going to happen on chain um i thought it was going to come first um and so i got i definitely got that wrong i still think it's coming um the other thing is what else have i got wrong i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know i don't know the i thought the correlation of liquidity and crypto would be tighter than it has been and it's been looser because of there's not been enough liquidity so the liquidity that's flowed has got into ai um and we haven't had fast acceleration of liquidity yet which tends to then benefit crypto more so now right now we've got this rotation so tech stops have stopped going up so the money then rotates into crypto but we haven't got the phase that banana zone phase where everything goes up and that i think is still to
Speaker 2come so if you look at this bitcoin and m2 global m2 liquidity chart yeah like this like it's like kind of was pretty correlated and over the last year actually since october last
Speaker 1year that's right and that was for a bunch of reasons one was um the government shut down so they withdrew liquidity for that and that happened twice and nobody foresaw that coming so that that's when it started breaking apart because the liquidity that was still available went to the nasdaq everything else lost it and you've seen this k-shaped economy where the breadth of the stock market has done this where the tech stocks are here and everything else is like all-time lows and it's crazy what's going on and crypto has been part of that whole process so there's not been enough liquidity around then the iran war and so that took liquidity out of the system again because rates went up the dollar went up and all prices went up so there's just not enough liquidity what does that say about bitcoin and crypto today if you look at this chart so when you look at the chart here you can see that bitcoin has a lot of liquidity it's part of and i use different measures of liquidity i use u.s liquidity global liquidity um u.s narrow liquidity the u.s broad liquidity which includes all the loans and leases in the banking system that's almost perfect for nasdaq right now so you can see the marginal liquidity crypto is bitcoin is basically following u.s narrow liquidity which is how many bonds the banking system buys plus the treasury general account and the fed balance sheet um so it's following those for the time being but it's still at a discount to every measure that it is and then you flip it around and say okay what does it look like versus nasdaq and gold because assets generally assets have a have a sort of fair value basis between each other and bitcoin got two standard deviations oversold versus both first it was gold and then gold corrected and bitcoin kind of held stable and then it got two standard deviations oversold versus nasdaq and that trend is a beautiful log trend where over time bitcoin is outperformed by you 99 point i mean i mean um nasdaq has underperformed by 99.97 over time and so that channel got to that and it's like you want to own crypto versus technology and i've owned both but um but it's at this point in the cycle it's like crypto looks the better bet
Speaker 2so bitcoin and crypto should outperform yes everything else and my thesis and my
Speaker 1thesis has been that smart contracts will outperform significantly this time so that's why because the applications layer of what finance is building and what the agents are doing is all smart contracts so it's stable coins it's real world assets on chain it's tokenizing equities it's perps it's all of the things that are being built are all smart contracts so what you're seeing is a massive demand for smart contracts now there is demand for bitcoin as a collateral asset we know that but the convexity of you know something like eth and i don't know what the size of eth is now what its market cap is but it's wildly undervalued versus you know what is coming interesting and how i look at some valuation for example is i think about always about networks right what's the value of a network and people think it's about cash flow it's nothing to do with cash flow this is what everybody gets wrong all the time the applications layer is about cash flow why hyperliquid is interesting because it generates cash flow but that's really an applications layer yes it's a layer one but it's not true broadly speaking it's a layer two it's a layer three it's a layer four it's a layer five broad multi-purpose layer one with ethereum it's really simple you have to ask yourself if i turn the switch off to ethereum tomorrow if you theoretically could how much value did do you destroy today and into the future it would remove 70 or 76 of all stable coins in existence it would remove what 70 something percent of all d5 it would remove most of real world assets um it removes all of the digital art market and it removes all of the layer twos this is a a trillion dollars plus of value that would be turned off if you just discount on a forward basis maybe one and a half trillion of value so it's kind of like it's wildly undervalued on most trading
Speaker 2platforms crypto lives in one app stocks in another and commodities such as gold and oil somewhere completely different variational puts purpose on all of its crypto equities commodities fx and even pre-ipo names in one single account with zero trading fees on every market at any size visit variational.io to see why variational has quickly become one of the largest on-chain trading platforms big thanks to my friends at bitwise asset management for backing today's conversation bitwise is a global crypto asset manager with 11 billion dollars in client assets and more than 70 crypto solutions that includes etfs index funds sd sdn sdn sdn sdn sdn crypto solutions. That includes ETFs, index funds, SMAs, custom option strategies, staking, vaults, and more. However you want to invest in crypto, the experts at Bitwise have you covered. 300 billion should be at least 5x higher, based on like this kind of thing. Yeah, exactly. If I gave you a blank piece of paper and said, write down the single biggest thing the financial markets are mispricing today, what goes on that paper?
Speaker 1I think it's this. I mean, it's boring to say, but right now, it's the integration of AI and crypto. We've gone to an infinite TAM, where before the TAM was the number of users, human users. It was like the internet, where you can go from zero users to 4 billion users, 5 billion users, and that's the kind of TAM. And now we've gone to infinite TAM, and the market hasn't really woken up to that yet. We all talk about it in crypto. Now we're always early to these things, for sure, and there'll be joy and pain on that ride as well, but I think that's still wildly undervalued, and I think it's wildly undervalued because again, people are looking at fees about what the value is of having equities online where they're trading 24/7 on blockchain rails. So I think all of that is still stupidly undervalued. I think the infrastructure layer to the digital age is blockchain, and nothing can exist without it. They were all meant to be. It's like a really weird manifestation of technologies that were not really for us.
Speaker 2They never were. What do you think needs to
Speaker 1happen for people to catch up with this? It's going to be evidence. The difference in people's understanding of AI is staggering. How much I'm using it, and I'm probably in the top 1% of users, then there's another group of 0.1% users, and then there's your friends. And they're using it to find out a good restaurant or something, they have no comprehension of what this thing can do. So they don't know what an agent is. We talk about agents, it means nothing to them. But soon that penny drop will come where it becomes a straightforward thing. And then before you know it, they're making payments without realizing it. And then suddenly they're like, "Oh, I get it." What's something you believe that you wish you were wrong about? That the economic singularity is going to happen in 2030. And I had always 2030 to 2032, where it starts breaking apart. We already see the signs. We can see it everywhere. Bond yields going up, but not inflation expectations. It's to do with forward discounting growth within the bond market. And the issuance of debt to finance the biggest build out in history. The rise of agents went from zero at the beginning of the year, if you remember, to now everybody everywhere. There's now more agents than there are humans on the internet. And that's only been 10 months. And so this is happening faster than I thought. So by 2030, all the study of what we understand of economics, relationships between things, how economies work, who gets the wages, how that works, it's going to be so screwed up that it's going to be really hard to understand. And that's coming faster than I thought. So we still, we now have basically four years to unfuck our future because beyond that, I can't see it.
Speaker 2But what can people do if they believe this too? Can we even know what to do or do we need to be super flexible and kind of like see along the way? Because one of the things is, oh, AI makes everything abundant. Therefore everything becomes cheap. Therefore my question is, if everything is abundant and cheap, why do people even need to build wealth? Your argument is you need to build as much wealth as possible before all this stuff happens.
Speaker 1Well, I don't think the abundance comes immediately. So the first wave of deflation is wages. And we're seeing. Wages are not rising as much as productivity, for example. And that will continue. So we'll see wage growth lower than expected. So that's the first wave of deflation because we can now create infinite intelligence. So knowledge workers, you can print them infinitely for our AI now for no cost. So over time, we see that and then it starts into the goods economy. But it can't get into the goods economy yet because AI needs to be pervasive through all these corporations and all of that stuff, where everyone starts making cost savings and figuring out how to mine stuff cheap and create stuff cheap and create more electricity. Like we've got this massive electricity roadblock right now. But what's really interesting to me is what is on the other side of this. You've got the largest race in the history of humanity, which is over superintelligence. And then it's between two nations and nothing must stop this. Because if you stop it, one nation wins and you can't allow that because then you get a state government. A state that rules everything. And whether it's the US or China doesn't matter. You need this duality. And so the biggest obstacle right now for the US side of the equation is energy. So infinite money will be thrown at solving this in infinite speed. So what happens after you've solved it? So give it five years, seven years of building out massive energy infrastructure, what is the cost of electricity? It's going to be close to zero. The marginal cost of electricity goes to zero. And you've seen that. You've seen Wright's Law with electricity. I mean, the cost of electricity from solar has gone down 99.99% in 30 years and it just keeps going. I mean, what's a world with almost free electricity?
Speaker 3I mean, you can make anything because nothing for anything. So what's the problem
Speaker 2there for people you say, because you wish you were wrong about this economic singularity?
Speaker 1Because society is going to break apart. So what does that mean? Well, firstly, you've got wages that don't go up, right? This is the ongoing everything code, the ongoing debasement where they have to keep debasing the currency to fund this super build out whilst people still suffer from it. But it won't be mass unemployment, but it's just the grinding, I can't get ahead, which has been pervasive for so long now. That continues. And then you get the political backlash, which is, I don't want data centers, I don't want AI, I don't want this, I don't want that. That's terrifying because it's going to split people apart over this. And what they're actually doing is slowing their own progress down because you've got the other side, China, accelerating the race too. So I think the political system is going to get really fraught over this. People are going to get angry. People are going to get concerned. People are going to have misinformation about it. And then it becomes also, whilst people aren't used to the new technology, how much scamming and how much stuff can go on when you've got video representation, vocal representations, calling the bank and confirming it with your own voice is worthless now. All of this stuff needs, the whole structure of society needs to change. And then building a business, what does it mean? What education do you do? What are you trying to aim for? Do you want to be trained as an accountant or a lawyer? Probably not. So that's the problem of the whole thing. And then if agents and AI are accumulating wealth, how does it get redistributed? Or do these guys just get super ultra wealthy? It's probably a combination somehow, it needs to get redistributed.
Speaker 2So your answer is get as rich as possible. I mean it's one of the answers. You just want optionality, right?
Speaker 1Yeah. So the optionality is find a home. A stable place to live. A stable place where if the political climate turns ugly, that you feel relatively safe in. And I've talked about that, nature is a good side of that whole thing. And the other is trying to make money. Try and make as much money as you can in this gift of an opportunity where more money than ever before is being forced into one particular opportunity set, which is this whole technology crypto nexus. So take it. And then, yeah. And then after this whole event, well, if agents are running the world, if AI is running the world and it's taking a larger share of economic activity, well, this is where I've talked about is blockchain is so great because if that's the rails they operate on for the payment system and everything else, and sort of validation online and all of the things that need to come out of it, then you can own those rails. So everybody can own the infrastructure rails. So there's no excuse. And now they're tokenizing all the equity. Yeah. Yeah. And now you can own those equities. You can own those too in any country in the world. So there is the chance for everybody to participate in it, but the crypto rails is the one part that's interesting because it doesn't get disrupted like companies do really just ends up being infrastructure.
Speaker 2You said before, I mean, we definitely had a bear market over the last year, but it's not like the real super painful bear market.
Speaker 1Yeah. Cause we didn't have a withdrawal of liquidity. We had a marginal withdrawal of liquidity. Withdrawal of liquidity, which is why equities went up and crypto went down. So I wouldn't call that a full cycle. It means to me, it looks more like 2019, 2020, where we had that big correction. We didn't go to the low. It feels more like that. And I've, I've said for a long time, I think this is going to be a longer cycle and that's how it feels to me. So the mid cycle correction matters, not market went down 50%. It's paying either way, right?
Speaker 238% of the traders on Calchi think that Bitcoin will cross 100%. Bitcoin will cross 100 K before Jan, 2027, you're agreed that we didn't go through like a proper bear market. market based on liquidity withdrawal, but more like a big correction. If that's the case, how long does this bull run go? And where does it bring us?
Speaker 1See, the issue is, is we can't tell because it depends what financial conditions doing what the dollar is doing all of this stuff. And so we can't tell right now, the dollar has been going up rates been going up, that's not good for forward expectation of liquidity. But we've got the offset, which is the largest capital expenditure in the history of humanity underway that supports the economy. So we can't tell the debt rollover is 5.8 years right now. And so that would give us probably until 20 sort of Q2 2027. But I actually think the whole thing is a super cycle, crypto tech, the whole lot, and it doesn't stop. I think it's going to suck in all of the capital. It doesn't stop. What does that mean? It just means it keeps going until 2027. 2030. 30. Something like that. So this is like, we're kind of in 1997, 96, in what happened in the technology boom last time. And it barely started. It really accelerated after that.
Speaker 2So you're more like, 96, 97, rather than saying, oh, we had this big crash to 2022, which would be like 2001 in kind of NASDAQ. And then for me, there was the great financial crisis. Okay, but like, if you look at tech for 20 years, just compounded.
Speaker 1Yeah. But don't forget, it did have 20, 30% sell-offs. It's only when you look back at the chart, it looks like nothing now.
Speaker 2Well, that would be the 50% sell-off that we have now in Bitcoin. And that might just continue, but people might just think forever. Ah, we have to go lower. We have to go lower. Like now, we have to go lower in October, right? But we just don't. And therefore, if you just DCA or accumulate, we need two standard deviation lower, like you just. I mean, in theory, when you look back, you're like, ah, that was so easy, but actually, it's still so fucking hard.
Speaker 1But just, you know, the way to get your head around it is put up the chart of the NASDAQ, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and do the long-term log regression channel on them. And they've all done this all the way through. And they just continue to follow the same guidelines. And in the end, you don't hear people complaining about the volatility in Microsoft, even though there's been massive volatility. It goes down 50% often. Amazon does too. But in the end, people just know it's a compounder. People just haven't still got their heads around crypto yet.
Speaker 2No, that's why not everyone is rich. Yeah. Because in theory, it's easy and practice is super hard. But it's not. Well, mentally, it is. When AI stocks are going fucking crazy, and you're like, I'm just going to DCA or whatever, wait for Bitcoin or SWE or Zcash, whatever, to go down. And then you're like, I'm just going to DCA or whatever, wait for Bitcoin or SWE or Zcash, whatever, to go down. And then you're like, I'm just going to DCA or whatever, wait for Bitcoin or SWE or Zcash, whatever, wait for Bitcoin or SWE or Zcash, whatever, wait for Bitcoin or SWE or Zcash, whatever, like going to shit to buy, well, it's still hard. Yeah. Because the moment to buy AI is not when everything pumps like crazy. It's when no one gave a fuck or when there is a massive correction afterwards. That's right. Like the same as it went up like crazy, like the same as Zcash went up like crazy. And you're like, oh, I'm going to look at this when it's down 70%, I'm going to buy, right? AI stocks, same, but like, it means you're never cool because you're never doing the thing when it's cool. No, that's right. You can never tell your friends. No, but you can. Or if you tell them, they're going to tell you you're a fucking loser, you're buying Zcash at minus 70% or AI stocks at minus 70%, right?
Speaker 1But there again, I've seen you on X boasting about the fact that you got it right this time by
Speaker 2not being emotional. I was never cool. And I'm still not. I'm still not cool. But now you're thinking you're cool.
Speaker 1No, you think you're cool now because you've actually done it the right way.
Speaker 2No, but I have no one to share it with. I mean, I can share it with you, but like, I'm like, it's kind of depressing. It's very lonely, all this. It's a bit like, it's like being a founder, right? Yeah. It's super lonely because you always do the thing. That nobody else wants to do. At that moment. Yeah. Yeah. And then you're going to have to sell at some point when it's going to be so cool to buy, not to sell. And you'll be like, fuck, man. So you always feel like shit. Yeah. Or you always feel bad.
Speaker 1Yeah. Yeah. The history of financial markets is always feeling shit. And if you're not feeling shit, you're doing it wrong.
Speaker 2Yeah. That's why not everyone is rich. That's right. That's why. We've gone from Bitcoin as digital gold to Ethereum as financial computer to stable current tokenization, DeFi and now AI. What's the next crypto primitive that you think is going to look obvious in hindsight?
Speaker 1ID. Something we cannot fucking, we cannot go another year without it. We simply can't. You've got to have a zero knowledge proof ID to confirm who you are. Because the internet and society is going to break if we don't do it. And I've been bleating on about this for years. I mean, I got Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, a whole bunch of them together back in 2020 and 2021 saying AI is coming. You guys need to have digital ID. And they're like, yeah, we do. And then they couldn't agree a common. Standard. But we're going to have to do this fast because we're going to break society really quickly. Because nobody, you know, in the digital world, you can confirm. There's no way of doing it.
Speaker 2And people, I'm always like an optimist. So I always think like people should have some kind of judgment and say like, this is not this person talking. Like I know this person. I got my ex account hacked sometime ago, a couple of weeks ago. And I realized because I have some other like alt account and I go on there and I see my own account tweeting about FOMO. Hey, I just joined FOMO. What am I buying? And so I'm like, what the fuck? And I see in the comments and people saying, I didn't think you were like that. You fucking loser and everything. And I'm like, I mean, first of all, like you say, I didn't think you were like that, which is like positive. Right. But then I'm like, people should know that. Like, I think that all this stuff is shit, like based on everything I say all the time, but like, yeah. People, people don't have judgment and there's no attention span. Right. So it makes it worse because like everyone makes a decision like in a millisecond. I'm like, do I trust this? Yes. No. Boom. And, and, and, and, and then, and then the hackers, they started to post some, some shit coin on Solana and everything. And I was like, oh my God.
Speaker 1We have to do this with news. We have to do this with everything. Everything has to have an on-chain record to prove its provenance because anybody can make a video of anything now. And, you know, we're going to go through an election in the U.S. And if we don't have ID, not the midterms, but the main election, we're so fucked.
Speaker 2Do you still believe Bitcoin is primarily a monetary asset or has your mental model of Bitcoin changed?
Speaker 1No, I think it's that. I think it works. It's just, you know, I think the whole digital gold idea works well. I think it's a collateral asset that is attractive over time. What we've seen is the seizure of Bitcoin now, like the seizure of gold from Russia was a big signal for, the seizure of dollar assets from Russia was a big signal that got people to buy more gold. Now we've seen the seizure of Bitcoin, the Iranian Bitcoin, which coincided with the Zcash's price rise. No, you know, so yes, I think it continues. I know the sovereign wealth funds are also interested. I think everyone gets it over time. Um, I think the, the privacy thing is also going to be important.
Speaker 2Why does no one seem to care about Bitcoin specifically now? Because it's boring.
Speaker 1What's there to talk about? The fucking millions of podcasts talking about Bitcoin. It's like gold podcasts. It's like, it just is, right? There's nothing else you do with it. It just is. And that's fine. You just buy it. And I mean, do we have whole podcasts based around bank accounts?
Speaker 2Do you still own your one Bitcoin? Yeah. Good. We've watched hundreds of supposedly revolutionary crypto networks come and go, maybe thousand. What separates a network that becomes infrastructure for one that is just another cycle's narrative? It's, you know, it's tough to know.
Speaker 1It's tough to know. Because, you know, some of these are built by really quality teams. Some of them have amazing technology. Who the fuck knows? Um, it's, it's a complicated game, you know? And I've only got one of those bets, which is sweet, as I know. And I'm on the foundation. But I've taken that bet because I think the team is exceptional. I think what they built is exceptional. And I think we'll see the proof arising of use case. Stuff like zero cost stable coins is like a no brainer for the agentic economy. There's, there's so much there, the speed of transactions, all of that stuff, the privacy elements, all of that. But we'll see. I mean, you don't know. You just don't know. It's, you know, it's never that easy to spot the earth. And it's much easier to say, well, I'll just buy Solana. It's fast, it's cheap. They do a great job. It's a great protocol.
Speaker 2What's a great example of a crypto network that you feel is at the inflection point from a narrative to an actual infrastructure and long term usage?
Speaker 1Solana that's matured. So the game is every network business on earth has maybe five dominant players. It's pretty standard across everything, whether it's operating systems or whatever. whether it's cloud or whatever it is. So there's probably room five here. I don't see why it's any different. So who are they going to be? That's the game. Because if you get those other three, there's a huge re-rating. And that's, you know, that's an interesting game to play.
Speaker 2You spent years talking about the exponential age before most people took it seriously. You just published a book about the exponential age, by the way. Now AI is accelerating incredibly quickly. Are we still underestimating the rate of change of AI?
Speaker 1Yes. So a bit about the books called The Everything Code, which is this whole thesis that I've had about the debasement of currency is being used to manage the debt, which grew because of the aging population. So demographics, debt, debasement. That's the story of The Everything Code. That's what's going on. That's the world we live in. That's why we own the only two assets that outperform debasement, crypto and technology. Then we have moved into the duality of that world with the exponential age, where everything has gone vertical. And the end state is then going into the economic singularity when everything changes. So we're right in the middle of every curve going vertical. I did not imagine it this fast. Because we're kind of in crypto used to, and in technology used to Metcalfe's law. So when a network takes off, we know, we'd, put it on a log chart and it all looks normal and we can deal with it. You get your head around log charts. But this is a log chart squared, Metcalfe's law squared. So you've seen anthropics revenues with the fastest ever rise of revenues in the history of the world. The, from zero to a billion users of chat GPT is the fastest in the history of the world. Their rise to the hundred million users was fastest in the history of the world. The output of intelligence per unit of energy, which is what I measure, as a big part of the universal code, which is my kind of big master thesis over the whole thing. We've had intelligence growth per unit of energy at Moore's law, which was like how much compute you got out of a transistor and out of a silicon chip and all of that. And the application of intelligence, it's gone vertical on a log chart, right? So that's called Reed's law. Reed's law doesn't exist in nature. In fact, it's never been observed. I cannot find another example of Reed's law and we're fucking living with it everywhere all around us, which is why we cannot go heads around what is happening in AI because we've now got self recursive learning going on where AI is building AI and it's getting faster and faster and faster. We're getting new models every month. Remember we used to get them twice a year or once a year. So the rate of intelligence from how I measure it is doubling every four and a half months. Intelligence per unit of energy. And we're going to drop, we're going to drop the electricity costs over time. Right now, electricity is actually risen in price because of this demand structure. If you produce solar, it's dropped. So that's why everybody's now, like Elon, everyone's producing solar plants, gas plants, and small nuclear is where they're going. And eventually the cost of electricity will fall and you get the double multiplier. So this is like la-la land and it's not going to stop. It's not going to stop. There's nothing to stop it. And it'll just suck in all of the world's capital as well. We're doing crypto.
Speaker 2Well. If crypto is only exponential, but it's not exponential, exponential.
Speaker 1Well, because you can't trade intelligence. Right. So does Anthropic, if you buy it on the IPO, is it a double exponential? No. I think none of this will be. So the use is the double exponential. The intelligence is the double exponential, but I'm not sure the profits are. So crypto has remained the best performing asset class in the world. Even with Bitcoin, Bitcoin from its lows is about a 45% annualized return. And if it's back to the two standard deviation highs, it'll be about 120% return. I mean, that still kills all of these stocks. So it's just time horizon again. I don't think anything's changed.
Speaker 2If AI makes intelligence and execution abundant, what becomes scarce?
Speaker 1Okay. Scarcity gets really interesting because, and you're already seeing it pricing in market, it's human experience. So human stuff that AI can't compete with. Live concerts. Look at the price of Ticketmaster shares, just like this. Sports teams, just like this. And just don't stop going up. All of these live experiences don't stop. My guess is the size of the YouTube economy, the same, but just none of this stuff stops because it's human. It's human experience. Yeah. YouTube economy.
Speaker 2Good. Well, because, yeah, but don't forget. Actually, it's true. You have, I mean, if you have your face on the thing, et cetera, right?
Speaker 1As long as it's authentically you, and then you can have live experiences around it. Live experience is the other big thing. Yeah. Um, so these are really human things. Travel just keeps doing this, never stops. So those things seem to be the kind of offset around it. I'm actually wondering how much.
Speaker 2People, how most normal people still afford traveling. It's just insanely, it's just insane. I don't know. But then you go to, when you go to, to Europe in summer, you're like, what the fuck?
Speaker 1Yeah. But then where, where are all the friends with less money going to Thailand? They find the place that's cheap, where they can still have fun. Like Spain used to be in Europe, but it's probably is now again. You know, it's, it's pretty cheap again. So people start going to places that are cheaper and that lifts other countries. Out of poverty. It kind of works, you know, not everybody can afford to go to, you know, a lot of places now because they're just priced out. Where does crypto fit into that scarcity? So the ultimate scarcity, so scarcity of a money you can't debase. Okay. We get that one Bitcoin, um, in the scarcity, what does blockchain actually do? In a digital world, you can make infinite amounts of anything. Yeah. Infinite. And you know, in, by next year we can have this conversation. It won't be us. It'll just be our AIs, right? So you can make infinite content. We're seeing that everywhere now. So what is scarcity? Well, blockchain creates digital scarcity, and this is, I keep bleating on and people don't fucking get it yet, but digital art is the greatest example of how this works. It is, it proves that you create digital scarcity out of something that had no scarcity beforehand in digital world. And that's it. It's immensely valuable. So digital art is a representation of culture and it's a compression of all culture. There's your concert tickets you went to, the nights out you had, all of those things, none of them you can monetize. The music you listen to, they're all worthless because they're all infinite or fleeting. So it all compresses all the value of all culture of a period of time, accrues to the art. It's done it every single time. And we're going through it. We're going through the largest change humanity has ever gone through. And we've got this breakthrough art. So art went from canvas to the streets, and it's now gone to the digital streets. And they're doing it with AI as well. If this is not some of the most valuable stuff that ever gets produced, it's beyond me. It's so fucking obvious to me. So I'm actually starting a digital art fund on all of this now called Epoch One. So I think that's, this is probably a pre-announcement of a pre-announcement, but that's in, I think November we'll launch it. But I think it's a pre-announcement of a pre-announcement of a pre-announcement of a digital art fund. And I think it's a pre-announcement of a digital art fund. like you know i bought this and i bought one of these and i got the scarcer rarer one no it's like do you know the artists you know who are the other collectors it's a very different way of you know it's a much more serious
Speaker 2thing so the gpx are
Speaker 1cooked yeah your bag of shame is fucked
Speaker 2i'm sorry people won't like it yeah i mean i have so many
Speaker 1bags of i mean you can see it happening people so want it because people loved it because yeah like it was one of the best moment in crypto yeah it got everybody together it was a lot of fun and people made obscene amounts of money and you know punks was the one that went from what five bucks to some of them traded for millions i mean the returns were staggering yeah and so people have that in their heads um i don't think that happens again you get bursts of it we've seen it recently there's been a few bursts of it so you're gonna have to live with your wallet of shame forever it's fine it's full of a lot
Speaker 2of shit other shit too so yeah quick shout outs to our legendary long-term when shift happens partners without whom none of this would be possible thank you to cast my go-to global money app to store earn move and spend stable coins across 170 plus countries directly with apple pay or a physical card on top of that i can also get paid in usd and euro with my cast virtual account use my promo code shift s h i f t and my link to get 10 off your membership earn up to three percent instant usd cash back on every card spend and get up to 250 in cash for referring your friends no banks no borders just money that moves with you with stable cash rewards do you think we're ever gonna have something exciting again in crypto
Speaker 1yeah like that
Speaker 2excites everyone even outsiders i think money excites most people
Speaker 1i think look basically everything we've ever asked was that to happen i mean when people say you know crypto it's like boring i'm like everything we've ever asked for from regulation to sovereign wealth funds buying bitcoin to the entire financial system now committing to build on this to the u.s treasury saying stable coins are one of the most important single things that we can do that we want to sell our bonds to stable coin holders and we don't think that the price is going to explode we don't think that the price is going to explode we don't think that the price is going to explode and of course it is i mean it's so obvious and that's what gets people excited it's not it's not really the fact that they did it in jpegs it's because they made a lot of money and you know yeah memes will happen again and people make and lose fortunes and all of that but generally just people making money is fun not making money is not fun so we
Speaker 2still think that the price of crypto and bitcoin is going to explode
Speaker 1yeah yeah i can't see i can't say well then it doesn't i can't you just can't because what you're doing is you've set up an infrastructure layer that produces block space and we haven't been using a lot of it and now we're going to use a lot of it so therefore it gets more valuable you
Speaker 2spend decades trying to understand the future you always say i live in the future yeah those constantly think about what's coming make it harder to live in the present
Speaker 1yeah a lot really hard really hard it's weird because i'm always even in my personal life living two three four five years ahead and it's hard to bring yourself back down to where you are does it mean that you live in anxiety constantly no it's motivation motivation yeah so i use it to try and manifest destiny in personal life it's like you know how do you motivate yourself to do something so every morning when i was working goldman sachs and i was on the tube at 5 30 a.m i would focus on what how do i want to get out of this which is i want to i want to leave before everybody else does i don't want to get into the whole partnership thing at goldman i want to leave before people and i want to cut to the lifestyle living in the mediterranean coast of spain and i just manifested it this is an interesting one
Speaker 2because i lived three years in london and the tube oh my god it was not 5 30 it was more like 9 9 30 so peak traffic when you have really worked when you have
Speaker 130 it's fucking lunchtime people in finance actually work for a living people don't realize that i think they get paid a lot but oh my god it's hard i
Speaker 2was trying to build my first company actually we moved to london when i was 20 you're not going to
Speaker 1build a company going at 9 30 in the morning i'm sorry my friend especially because especially
Speaker 2because at 9 or 9 30 actually worked out pretty well but because at 9 or 9 30 you have to wait five fucking tubes before you can take it that's right because it's just full so tell me about the row at 5 30 a.m in the tube like what was going on in your mind
Speaker 1you know it's two things of like what's happening now markets all of that trying to figure out where everything's going but the other side is like why am i doing this you know it was so hard people can't understand like 1997 98 over the financial crisis i was so busy and we were understaffed and i was trying to hire people that i couldn't leave the desk to go for a piss because i was getting pulled to the jones stand drunken miller julian robertson other people at soros lewis bacon at more capital all calling through with orders shouting and only wanting to speak to me so nobody else could pick up the phone to them because they would cut the whole firm off what happened with like lewis bacon or soros they would call up if i wasn't there and somebody from the institutional thing who was like slow moving and didn't know how to deal with these guys they cut off the whole firm for you know a month like we're not dealing with these fucking morons it was like the hardest thing and that was like 14 hours a day at the desk but did you feel
Speaker 2like oh this is so exciting i love my job i love my life or do you feel like i need to get the fuck out of this because i don't feel any meaning in
Speaker 1oh it was the most exciting time but the most stressful time i had eczema and rash over my face i couldn't sleep on a friday i would go out for dinner with friends and i couldn't speak because they didn't know what you've gone through they don't know the intensity all ringing you're on three phones at once trying to shout to the guy over there to get an order get somebody else to pick up a phone everyone's clicking their fingers trying to get other people to pick up phones for you and that's going on for 14 hours a day so you mean couldn't speak because of tiredness or because of like anxiety you're shell-shocked you've like you've gone through so much and you're trying to explain to people it doesn't mean anything to them but you answered the phone and you would you know why is that stressful i'm like you have no understanding when you're dealing with billions of dollars and you're like oh my god there's tens of billions hundreds of billions of dollars um and it's all instant urgency everything must be done immediately it's like it's
Speaker 2hard for someone who is taking the tube or the metro every day going to their nine to five or four to six or and feeling like how do i get the figure out of that what's your
Speaker 1advice to them the advice is what is it that you want and can you get to the same thing easier so most people say let's say i want a house in the sun and i want to have some land and i want to have a nice car and i want to be safe and then they look at prices and it's like well if i try and buy a house in new york like that's five million dollars i can't do it but then all you need to do is look for another place you can do it and you can do it for a
Speaker 3fraction absolutely and
Speaker 1then you realize oh i can have exactly the same quality of life but i'm just not in such a posh place or such a um fashionable place to be but i can get exactly
Speaker 2the same what do you think keeps people in these most posh or fashionable places well that's just
Speaker 1status they just want to be around other people it's also isolating if you're the wealthier person in a small town you're the big fish in a small pond it's not very nice because everyone looks at you and i've kind of done that before and that's not good it means pain yeah um and that's not great look either um but people also don't want to believe they can do it they kind of sell themselves a story that they can't have it and i've seen plenty of people who can particularly now if you can work on the internet you can live anywhere in the world yeah you know and if you're if your dream's a beach i mean you can go to el salvador or nicaragua or somewhere in the central america it's nothing or in southeast asia there's plenty of people who can do it and i've seen plenty of people who can do it you can live for a fraction of the cost and have a nice house on the beach which you can own in a secure politically secure environment but people don't see it people want the ibiza beach and house yeah because it feels less risky well also it's the same
Speaker 2as building a business building a physique or building a career or anything like or or building wealth you could you could see it like in steps or in stairs i'll go first to this cheaper place maybe the ultimate goal is to go to this more expensive but they they want the best thing right now and then it's impossible 100x right now so
Speaker 1they don't do it yeah yeah they you kind of force yourself not to do it and if you tell yourself i'll never get there you will never get there but if you do it either in steps or as you say you accept something different and they use that as a base to build on and that's that's what i did i did that
Speaker 2you've had enormous conviction in ideas that took years to play out how much of your success is actually intelligence and how much is simply having the psychological ability to see through being wrong for a long time?
Speaker 1I don't think it's that. And intelligence, I don't know if it's that. But one thing I did do is I went back through my GMI brain and said, okay, what is my hit rate over 21 years? And it's 65%, which is stupid high. 65% of everything I've ever, every position that's ever been recorded in the history of GMI has been profitable. And the average profit was like 50%. Per trade. So where does that come from? It's the living in the future and pattern recognition. That's what I'm good at. I'm just very good at holding a 3D jigsaw puzzle of everything happening in the world, in the future, in my head. Now, is that intelligence or is just a weird trait? I don't know, but most macro people have that. And it's that.
Speaker 2But for the 65% of the trade to be profitable, probably a bunch of these trades, if not more than a, a bunch were not profitable for a while.
Speaker 1Yes, I've had many of those that they take a while to play out and you really question yourself. And you're like, I don't use stop losses, but you have to have an idea stop and it's really hard when price is against you and you're not sure the facts have changed and you end up, you'll lose more and you'll lose us than theoretically you should, but you should make it back in your winners if you get it right. And time horizon is the thing that's worked for me. But sometimes, the whole structure of the market changed. I was very bullish bonds out of 2022. No, earlier bonds had broken this big log down channel they'd been in for 30 years. I called it the chart of truth because every time it touched it, it reversed and went, yields went lower. Then it broke out and I thought, it'll reverse back into the range. Never did. So it takes you a while before you're like, okay, I'm done with bonds. I don't get it anymore. It's changed. So I lost money. When did I really lose money in that? That was 2022, I think, 21. And then I realized something had changed. So that's painful, but I made it up in other stuff. What do you do when the conviction disappears? When it disappears? It's a problem. And I've learned this, is if I had a big diversified book, I end up forgetting about the positions. And when I've got one in carbon allowances, I made 200% returns in it the first time I did the trade. Then I came back and did it and got the timing completely wrong. And so it was down 40% at one point. But I know how it works. It's driven by the business cycle and the business cycle had been slow because it took forever for the RSM to build up. And the carbon allowances, the European carbon allowances is based on that. And now the trade is up small, but I can't cut it yet. But I just didn't look at it. And that's bad. Because then you're not really managing your P&L. So I've tried to be more concentrated.
Speaker 2So you'd rather be concentrated than in a specific field or two. It's much easier to have conviction, right?
Speaker 1It's much easier to have conviction. It's much easier not to lose money. I mean, I don't play the game of, you know, cutting my downside all the time. You know, I'm not a trader. But even then, I know I've got basically two bets, crypto and technology. And then I'll have crypto bets that are working, some crypto bets that aren't. I'll cut. I'll sell some of them. Or I'll just eventually just give up. -
Speaker 2What's an example of crypto bet that didn't work out and you cut? -
Speaker 1I had a position in, there's a UK listed company called KR1. And they're basically like a open-ended, a closed, sorry, a closed-ended VC fund that was a public company. So these guys were early in the Polkadot ecosystem when that was a big thing. Early in Ethereum, early in lots of really smart guys. But the structure was a bit fucked because they couldn't raise any more money from it because it had a fixed amount of capital in it. And when you looked at the NAV at the time back in 2021, it was trading at a huge discount to NAV. Now in the end, most of what they held proved to be in protocols that weren't super valuable. And who knew that Polkadot wouldn't be? Because, you know, five years ago, it was a serious ecosystem. And so I had that position for ages. Just thought, well, when alts rally, I'll just be able to get out for less loss. And eventually I just cut it down, what, at 80% or whatever. It was a small position, but it's, you know, I've done that a few times.
Speaker 2I just have to say something about this. When alts rally, I'll be able to, like, recoup my investment. This is a very classic psychology that even if you think about, maybe you say, it's okay, I'm in this top meme coin. It's a meme coin, but it's a top one. But when alts rally, this thing should get back. You basically hold the bag, it's at loss, right? Instead of saying, I can just put this money into like something that I think it's already hot or proven a leader. And I'm going to probably make this money back much faster, but I can't fucking sell, right? And so you back hold the thing thinking it's going to go back, but most of the time it doesn't. -
Speaker 1And, you know, I suffer from that. I think the trick is, and I've not managed to do this, is just think of it as new money to add to your position in hydroliquid or Solana or whatever it is, right? Your choice of thing that looks strong and just say it's new money as opposed to, I'm down. So if you put in, you know, 10 grand and it's worth a grand, you should stop thinking it's down 90% and saying, well, I can put another grand
Speaker 2into- - Something I believe in or that's doing well, yeah. -
Speaker 1I haven't got that psychology right yet either, but that's the way to, I think, to think of it. So you distance yourself from the loss and just think of it as the capital, I think is the way. - When do you accept that we're wrong and move on? - It takes time with me. It just takes time where, if it's a big position, then it'll be more big technical levels, you know. How's it trade, what's going on? Is the adoption not working? Or whatever, if it's a stock, you know, is something not playing out here? If it's a smaller position, I'll tend to, yeah, abandon it, which is a bad way of doing it. -
Speaker 2You've been pounding the table on Sui for a while now, and it hasn't been as clear of a winner yet as your BTC bet in 2020 and your Sol bet in 2023. Have you actually made money on Sui, if you look at the average buys, or is this a thesis that you're waiting on another one or two years to play out? -
Speaker 1Yeah, I mean, I started, obviously I got granted from the foundation, but ignoring those, let's look at the ones that I bought. I think my, I bought as low, I mean, I bought in July at 70 cents. I bought previously at around the same kind of levels. I've also bought at two and a half. So I think my average entry is probably, excluding the ones I was given, my average entry, - Yeah. - is probably, excluding the ones I was given, my average entry, is probably 170, 150, something like that. is probably 170, 150, something like that. So they're underwater. -
Speaker 2Underwater, okay. - Yeah. - But you have this big thesis, so you're basically saying, I'm waiting for this to play out, I'm a massive believer. -
Speaker 1Yes, and you know, my job is to question that, right? You build a thesis and then your job is like, is this bullshit? Am I wrong? Where am I wrong? What proof points do I need? And so how I looked at Sui is I started thinking, okay, what is the. Because people are looking at fees, I'm like, stupid. The job of technology is to reduce all friction. So everything has to go to zero in cost. That's how all technology works. So I'm like, okay, so what are we looking for here? What is the value of a network? Is this whole Metcalfe's Law idea? And what I got down to is economic density per user. So how much TVL is held per user? And if that is fleeting, so when the price moves, it moves a lot, it tells you that's not sticky. So Sui actually has more density per user, even though it's because it's got a lot less users, but they're kind of economically valuable that it produces like $4,000 per user. Well, so if you add a new user to the network, it adds $4,000 of value of TVL, which in chain valuation term goes up a lot. So if Sui is like at 150,000 active users daily or weekly, whatever you use, if it added another hundred, it's probably a three X multiplier. I mean, it's like, I don't think it's going to be that big of a deal. I mean, I don't think it's going to be that big of a deal. I think it's going to be a really good deal. It's going to be really good. I think it's going to be really good. And so therefore, that's what I want to own. So I don't care about the other stuff. Zcash was obvious to me. Because the privacy thing just makes sense, particularly after, you know, seizing of assets and that kind of stuff. And, you know, this is just a number of times you can hear fucking Barry Silbert call me up and say, you need to buy this and me ignoring him, and then he gets it right. So, you know, Barry, I'd spoken to Barry a lot about it, and I saw other people I'd spoken to about it. And so, yeah, I bought it at 200 or something. And it's worked out quite well so far. At 400, maybe. 400. So yeah, so I don't get, I've trained myself not to have FOMO. It's like, it's out of my thesis. So pump.fun can go up 50x from here. I don't care, because it's not my thesis. And therefore, I'm just trading somebody else's thesis. Then you have conviction. I have a thesis. I've written a lot about it. I've done huge amounts of work on it. And I know I'm right on layer ones. Am I right on where SWE fits into those? Don't know. But I'm fucking sure I'm right on Ethereum and Solana.
Speaker 2When do you think the SWE thesis will play out and you'll be able to tell people, I fucking told you so?
Speaker 1Well, I hope I can. Because a lot of people have come along for the ride for that as well. And people are hurting. Look, I think it's kind of, all the conditions are there. All the conditions are there. And if they don't get adoption from the agentic economy or they don't get adoption in finance and the hashy, the gold, the sort of gold en suite and other big projects don't get traction and the EVE Online gaming doesn't get traction, then somebody's not executing properly because there's no reason for them not to because the technology stack is so good and the people are highly experienced.
Speaker 2How can you test or see whether the execution is good?
Speaker 1Well, in the end, it has to be use case, right? It's how many active users and how much are those users worth? I mean, it's that whole equation. So it's all well and good to have $4,000 per user in economic density. But if you're not growing users, you ain't going nowhere. So that's the case here. And if it works, it'll outperform because if you think about SUI, it's like there's still a whole bunch of unlocked stuff that has not been issued yet or is out of the market. Then you've got 70% plus of stuff that's staked. So the free flow of this is tiny. So if you bring new users on or new investment in, it matters. It massively outperforms. So that's been my thesis for a while. And we see it every time. If you look at the chart of ETH versus Bitcoin and then look at the chart of SUI versus Solana, they're all the same pattern. And it's the risk curve. So yeah, we're going to have to wait and see. But for me, it's like the next 12 months. It's going to have to go. And it will go at the same time Solana moves and Ethereum moves and everything else moves.
Speaker 2You were a big ETH bull a couple of years ago. And then at some point you said, I don't own ETH anymore. I own Sol, right? I was to 2023. You bought some ETH recently. What's your thesis on Ethereum that made you get back in? Look, almost 90%
Speaker 1of my ETH is in art. Oh, okay. Which I think is the most convex trade on earth. It's as simple as that. And the best long-term store of wealth that moves into the economic singularity where you own, something that's going to be valuable. So most of my ETH is in that. I bought ETH into the sell-off in the summer. I had stink bids in ETH, Solana, SUI, all got filled. But really I just convert my ETH from liquid asset into very illiquid art. Because like the house I bought in the Cayman Islands, I could then own it for 10 years because I can't sell it. And then before you look back and you've made 50X or nothing.
Speaker 3It's like, wow, that's a lot of money. And then you look back and you're like,
Speaker 2wow, that's a lot of money.
Speaker 1opportunity to buy and it's proven that way what's your zcash thesis i think you know it's the moron thesis which is like you know what does 10 of global store of value want to be private yeah and what's its value versus bitcoin you know it's like it's the moron thesis it's like it's so simple that you don't need to explain to anybody is this a trade for you or
Speaker 2not because you mentioned multiple times you said i was in bitcoin 2013 then you went to like 2k then i was up 10x then i sold but then you went to 20k and i was like fuck i lost like a lot of their 10x and then you're buying back around three or four k but a few years later how do you see if people say this is kind of akin to btc but maybe 10 percent it could be like kind of like the next bitcoin in terms of price action which is going to be kind of like the next bitcoin in terms of price action which is going to be kind of like the next bitcoin in terms of price action which is going to be kind of like the next bitcoin in was already kind of crazy right over the last year and a half could still be crazy and catch a lot of attention how do you but your entire thesis is just buy and hold and do nothing and add on huge crashes or dips yeah i don't
Speaker 1know where my level of conviction is to hold it i'm not sure i want to go through this all again because do you know what i mean is like with this one you're going to end up having to fight every government all over again i've fucking done that 13 years in bitcoin and you're gonna have to go through it all again you know every exchange will ban it the europeans will stop it and all of this stuff and it's like it's not easy money and it's going to take time to play out so you know even if it has a blow-off cycle this cycle it'll come down a lot again and then it's going to be really hard to hold on to it so i don't the answer is i
Speaker 2don't know i don't know how big can z cash get this cycle like you mentioned 10 and i mean there's quite a few other very smart people they're all saying 5 10 so some say 20 what's your kind of i mean obviously we're not talking about price predictions but what's your what's your framework for bitcoin and therefore like i haven't really i haven't
Speaker 1really got one i'm just like looking at the chart saying it'll go where it goes so i'm trying not to over engineer where i think it's going to go what it's going to i don't have so much in it that if it goes up and down 50 i even think about it but i got enough that if it goes up you know 5 or 10 x it's like that's that's a really big win so i just wait so you think
Speaker 2one day you're going to wake up and say now is the moment to just not as enough yeah or do you just
Speaker 1take off 50 if it's done really well and you still believe in the thesis but you don't want to deal with having quite a lot of money and having to fight the european government and everything else you just say i'll take 50 off and just run the rest quick
Speaker 2shout out to the legendary team at jupiter the defy super app anything you want to do on chain from trading to earning yield you can just use jupiter personally i recommend getting the jupiter wallet on either your phone or your laptop 10 times faster and 10 times cheaper than the competition you're gonna love it thank you to the awesome team at athena for backing today's conversation athena is one of the fastest growing projects in defy with over 7 billion dollars and it's going to be a lot of money and it's going to be a lot of money and it's going to be a lot of money and it's going to be a lot of money and it's going to be a lot of money in stablecoin supply and an average 11 apy on susde and importantly zero d pegs since launch which is exactly what you want from a stablecoin go check them out by following the link in the description down below last year you said there were there were a few networks whose data was promising right you were mentioning uh sui near and avax yeah uh you mentioned near you said uh this data is very interesting that was last year in december i think something like that right the market seemed to be confirming your thesis a year later with the price of near rising quite a lot have you looked at the near data in your models
Speaker 1recently no but jamie coots at real vision did a big analysis big deep dive on near interviewed them all and came out super bullish on it as well um i have not i just don't have bandwidth to you know i've kind of got my bets i'm not going to change around i'm not going to do anything else but you know that thesis is playing out as near has you know a lot of use cases which seem to be growing it's doing well and you know that seems to be the thesis what's jamie's disease on near i'm not really sure because again i tend not to read anybody else's research but you know he's written a lot about it and nailed it he got it really right and he his thesis was yeah the on chain activity is growing the use cases are growing the team are executing all of that stuff um and that seems to be the case but again i don't really follow it closely i just there's too much going on in the world right just keeping up with ai is hard enough do
Speaker 2you own any other crypto asset that we haven't mentioned you mentioned sui e sol z cash bitcoin i think i still
Speaker 1have some doge left um a bit of that um i still probably have a bit of xrp somewhere um and that's about it
Speaker 2you spend your career helping people understand how to make money at this stage of your life what do you think money is for money at first is for security
Speaker 1right the stress of being a human and trying to exist um it's for that security and then if you're lucky enough it's for lifestyle but security is primarily what it's all about um and that's why you know that's why i wrote the book i'm going to plug the book again the everything code because i wanted to get it down to people exactly how this works and what it's all about why people need to own crypto and technology why it's happening to them why they feel like their future's been fucked or stolen from them what is going on and then what to do about it and the phases we're about to go through so i've laid that all out for people in the clearest possible way in the book um to help as many people as possible navigate this journey because i think where we're going as i said we've only got about four years and it doesn't mean that you can't make money after four years i'm just meaning it gets weird after four years and you want to have security that feeling of security doesn't mean you can't invest anymore but you're going to be competing with agents and markets are not the same thing anymore so all i want to do is say listen we're kind of setting up this is it this is the one um take it and then you can navigate this future much much more comfortably what
Speaker 2are you optimizing for now that you're no longer optimizing purely for wealth lifestyle
Speaker 1it's lifestyle and security of you know your family and stuff around you and then it's you know what exact lifestyle do you want um you know how do you want to live your life and under how much stress do you want to take versus not you want to take some so that's really the main the main thing it's also look i'm in this journey with millions of people now there's nothing i can do about that um so you know i've i've done as much free content as possible i've gone out and explained everything to everybody for 13 years about all of this i've then done as many videos as i can on it i've then written a book on it which is out november the 3rd please pre-order the book um and then i have also built an ai of me so people can then ask me questions i've given like everything i possibly can pretty much all of it's free you're sure you can get my research and gmi and and real vision pro but i've kind of given everything to everybody and said look this is everything i can give you um and you know luckily i get thanked more than than hated on you get hated on the internet and thanked in real life um which is nice because you can change people's lives over time but it's over time it doesn't depend only
Speaker 2on you it depends mostly on them and their decisions yeah but it's amazing
Speaker 1with the uh the ai so it's a it's in my voice or you can you know chat with it it's trained on all of the free content i've ever put out plus everything i've put out behind the paywall on real vision and my x feed and a whole bunch of other stuff background stuff and you can ask a question so it's ralpal.ai and it's free to use what's interesting is the questions people ask so many are concerns about the future concerns about the future concerns about the future concerns about do i hold the right assets how do i manage risk what should i be holding what it's like it's all financial insecurity there's like okay maybe 60 is like what are your frameworks how do you think about liquidity what do you think the business cycle is doing you know etc there's a huge chunk of people it's like desperate for help and i've got to think about how to address that because you know legally compliantly it's not easy to do but needs to be a way that we can address that i think ai will help so with we're planning some things at real vision there because we've got this amazing ai called the rv brain which is trained on not only the kind of on finance itself everything's ever been on real vision but also all the behavior of all of the users on the real vision platform
Speaker 2what's the most asked question to your palvatar
Speaker 3the most concerning or concern that
Speaker 2people have about the future and what's your ai answer and what's your personal answer
Speaker 1so a lot of it is the insecurity bleeding through of, am I going to make it? There's a pervasive sense of fear. And I think this is this four year, they can see what's moving around them. They can see that they're not moving and they're becoming impatient. It's like, how the fuck do I get out of this? Because I can see that the future is going to be complicated where we're competing with AI and robots. And so you're getting this increasing sense of urgency, even with crypto prices not going down. And it's not just about crypto. It's just like, do I own AI or crypto? What do I do? It's like the whole, I need to unfuck for my future is like so strong. And that's scary.
Speaker 2What's your answer? And what's the AI answer?
Speaker 1The AI answer is built on my frameworks of understanding of like, you know, what assets beat debasement, how you should think about it, and broad generic terms, because it can't give full advice. And technology, and think about what kind of weightings you want to own, and what is your risk tolerance, and that kind of stuff. And it tells people to go to the Real Vision platform. The Real Vision brain there has more information to give out. It has real-time pricing in it, all of that stuff. And then there's the community. Just go and ask the community. They're amazing. So people start posting posts about, "Hey, I've got this weighting in this. What do you think? How do I manage this?" So the community is the biggest support of all. And my answer to that is the same, really, as the AI is like, "What is your risk tolerance?" And people think they've got risk tolerance, but they haven't. They always say, "Yeah, yeah, I can deal with 80% swings," like, "No, you can't." And they forget that conversation always when they're down 50%.
Speaker 2Well, we can see that with this Sui bet, where you say, "I'm over 8 Sui," so people will follow that. But then they'll, well, then there is, you say, "Don't fuck this up," or on like Bitcoin or ETH or something. It's all majorly, right? And the other one's less because the smaller ones are more volatile. So for you to feel less pain, you should have almost all less.
Speaker 1They don't listen to that. They just listen to, "I'll take the riskiest choice you're taking, and I'll put it all
Speaker 2into that." Actually, people I found who to be the best in terms of risk tolerance or knowing their own risk tolerance is women. So they will ask me like, "Hey, should I invest in this thing, et cetera?" And the first thing I ask is like, "How much downside do you see?" "How much downside can you take?" That's going to define like your portfolio allocation. And they seem to be much more, even with Bitcoin, like, "Ah, I can't. This is already too much." Like the down 40 or 50% of Bitcoin, this is already too much, right? So I found that-
Speaker 1Or the other way I found is if you explain to a woman about, "Okay, you're going to have to deal with 70% drawdowns, but you're going to hold it for 10 years. When the 70% drawdown happens," they said, "Well, you told me it was going to happen." There's less ego in it and more applied intelligence into it than the man is like, "Oh my God, it's all going to worthless." I mean, it's very interesting to see. Very interesting to see.
Speaker 2What's something you used to think would make you happier once you had it that turned out not to matter nearly as much as you thought?
Speaker 3I don't know, my sanity? You don't need your sanity, it's fine.
Speaker 2We've done this six times, it's the sixth time today. I don't know, you've
Speaker 1never asked me the secrets of my good looks, which I find insulting. What should you have asked me?
Speaker 2How did you go from being in London? You said I had all these problems, et cetera, when you were much younger. I mean, obviously you're a tan because you live somewhere with your son, I would guess, right? Yeah, Spain. But is it just a difference in lifestyle, in happiness, in meaning?
Speaker 1No, it wasn't. It was a lot less stress, because I was just running my own business. I was writing once a month, and it was a lot easier. Yeah. It was the European crisis, the financial crisis, all of that. So it was extraordinary times, but it was also boring. We've talked about this. I was in a beach town in Spain. There's nothing to do apart from get up to no good. And in the end, I really missed being in something. So you have to be careful with that whole lifestyle trade. You have to be careful what you wish for. I thought I could be an olive farmer. I couldn't. So you go.
Speaker 2It's boring. It's boring, but you feel better and you look better. Then you go back in the trenches, building businesses and taking flights all the time. Yeah. But you still manage to look good. There you go. You got it. You do. You do. So what's this? I mean, there's this whole looks maxing trend, right? Yeah. Take it to the very extreme. Like, how much are you into this thing? Like, I actually really need to take care of myself, or do some procedures or some things to actually look good.
Speaker 1Yeah. No procedures or anything. No. I mean, I've always eaten super healthy, haven't I? I don't eat processed food. I cook my own food. It's, you know. All of that stuff. And I did the whole keto diet for like five or six years. I go to a longevity clinic called Fountain Life, take supplements, which may or may not be any use for you, stuff like that. I think really the answer is just being an optimist. Being an optimist. I'm not doing enough exercise. I'm traveling too much. My lifestyle's catastrophic, but just being an optimist and enjoying life. This is the biggest life hack of all. And because it's not like the world is crushing me, you just look for, oh, it's a beautiful day. You might have had a shit day, lost a ton of money or whatever, fallen out with your best friend, but the sun's shining. It's beautiful outside.
Speaker 2It's like, life's okay. In 2024, I think it was in, I think it was in October or November, we recorded a podcast in our second podcast together. In London, you said, I bought a little bit of smoking chicken and fish to pay my ex-wife for the shares of the business that I still owe her after the divorce. Would be funny if this paid off the last chunk I owe her.
Speaker 1Yeah, it didn't. She won that one as well. It went to zero. I mean, it was like, it was like less than 1% of my portfolio. But if it had worked, I was like, that would have been the funniest outcome. No, the funniest outcome is me losing money. And it going to zero again, and she's still winning. 2025? That's one thing, by the way, is even though you try and manifest your destiny, it never fucking happens in the way you think, never. And you have to kind of learn that trick is not to get disappointed it didn't happen in the way. What you're trying to do is kind of move your gravitational force in that direction. But what you find is you do. This, this, this, this. And then you're like, oh, and then it's this. It's not a smooth path. And so, you know, in my head, I was going to pay off my ex wife with smoking chicken fish proceeds. The reality is now I'm still paying her off. Still now? Out of my income.
Speaker 3Yeah. Yeah. In 2025, I think our third
Speaker 2podcast or fourth. I think third, you said I'm massively over a three more than 70%. You still believe this was wise? To tell people to have the position. I would say both.
Speaker 1To have the position is my choice. Right? I know my risk. I've been doing this very long time. I know my income. I know how much risk I can take. So that's my choice. I've now learned. I can't even fucking tell people. Percentage. I just can't tell people anything. You cannot give them any detail because they want to copy you without having done the work.
Speaker 2And you said they don't have the same level of income. All this stuff makes a massive difference. Huge. Risk tolerance. Do I work in the industry? Do I have the information? And you have the income. So even if let's say it doesn't work out, I'm still absolutely fine, right? That's right. People will just copy. They want to simplify everything. I'll copy the trade and the time of entry and the percentage. But it doesn't work. It's not as simple as that.
Speaker 1No. And you know, that kind of copy trading without doing any work on it is so prevalent now. Copy trading, I think, is a great idea. In fact, it's something we're going to be building into Real Vision. But what we want is thoughtful discussion and understanding on thesis and why and why. And that's what I'm trying to do. How do you explain that
Speaker 2to these millions of people who followed you in that trade? Because they did. Like, I have a lot of people after that podcast, they said, "Oh, I bought a lot of sweet." Yeah. At four dollars and three…
Speaker 1Yeah, exactly. Like, how do
Speaker 2you explain that to these people who are like, "I believe in Raoul and I believe in Raoul and I just blindly follow." Look… And they bought much later on. Yeah. And I feel…
Speaker 1And look, I do feel responsible. And my view is… And I've explained to them, is you need to be adding into the weakness if you want to stay in the trade in the same way. level doesn't shouldn't matter over time um now my whole thesis can be wrong okay fine but it's yet to be proven we need to go through an up cycle fully first before we can prove it one way or the other and i've said to people i know how horrible it feels because i've done it with bitcoin i've done it with everything where you've got a your entry price is extremely high you put in too much to start with yeah you either have to cut the trade because the your risk tolerance or you have to add and then before you know if you were adding at 70 cents 75 cents 80 cents before you know it your your entry level is now two bucks and so you have a much higher chance of making money over time so it's hard because i don't get time to speak to people and explain how to think about these things so people get you know people get scared angry and i get the blame i get it but i'm not telling them to buy it um but i do want to help people i do understand what it feels like yeah because it is not nice
Speaker 2yeah since all these celsius and and ftx happened i also always told people i don't advise anyone to buy crypto anymore i think you should not but here is what i'm doing here's what i'm doing but i don't think you should do it right obviously
Speaker 1they still do it but i gave people a whole don't this up thesis but they don't listen i made it clear i published it i've made i think nfts of it we made t-shirts of it did everything but they don't listen and then it's like you may be by suey at the high no i said do this but you didn't do that and i explained why um but i'm still take responsibility because i i want everybody to win and i've gone through this for 13 years i know how this game plays
Speaker 2out yeah but one one thing is for new joiners or newcomers in crypto you will need to accept that the moment you buy is not the law most likely and you probably are going to be down at least 50 on your position at some point and this happens all the time every time we take a new position a new thing it's probably going to be down a lot at some point even if it's not now even if it goes up first or
Speaker 1it could be now you don't know when it comes right if you just accept you don't know when it comes and part of that don't this up was expect 35 pullbacks in bitcoin alone now once you go down the risk curve you're at 70 now don't forget solana in 2020 was down 80 in the middle of the bull run and ethereum did it in 2017 in the middle of the bull run these things fell 50 60 70 and still ended up like up 50x so volatility you don't know when it comes if you if you just tell yourself i'm going to have a 50 drawdown easily and maybe more don't know it could be today or it could be
Speaker 2in a year forget whether you like uh sui was the position sizing wrong 70 percent
Speaker 1uh no i'm still you know i'm still comfortable in the position i won't talk about the sizing of it really but i'm still comfortable in in um in the position because i do believe there'll be three to five layer ones that are systemically important and that will capture 80 of the entire market for block space and i don't see another one outside of sui that can get into the top three i really don't now you know near is a different thing it's built for a different purpose hyperlake was a different purpose what are the other avalanche yeah okay i can see a possibility there but what other layer one there's got any sort of form of adoption that has the technology stack to offer something different than solana or ethereum this it's actually a few it's very few that's very interesting when you realize it's very few because then you can actually build a basket of some of this stuff and assuming that a couple of them don't work out
Speaker 2last year and this year you said when shift happens hold the right assets and do nothing yeah do you still believe this that's all i've done i mean the
Speaker 1proof is in the pudding i told you i've traded twice buying both times and just put in low bids when the market you know fell sharply i bought in beginning of the year and then in the summer and that's all i've done and then before that i've done nothing either i mean i've just bought i don't know how to sell but of the core holdings i don't know how to sell because i don't sell and like digital art i've never sold anything
Speaker 2you spent your entire adult life trying to see around corners if you knew you had one major shift left to witness in your life one thing that would fundamentally change humanity what do you think
Speaker 1this is well we're in the middle of it i mean when i wrote and you alluded to this when i wrote the exponential age they're like this is weird because macro people are supposed to be cynical and miserable and look for value stocks and do all the things look for collapses and i said they can't happen because of what's happening and i said all of this technology is going to go vertical and humanity's never going to go through a period like it everyone thought it was insane and now we're in the middle of it and people are losing their minds i mean we're going through the biggest fastest change in the history of humanity this is the biggest economic race to ever occur the most important technology ever to be discovered and we're here for it what time to be alive we've just birthed super intelligence you know i i think trump is right in renaming it from artificial intelligence to super intelligence because that's where it's going and intelligence now goes to infinity in abundance so we we don't even know what this means but in terms of longevity of life over time abundance um you know solving disease all of this stuff becomes all doable so you know i remain hugely positive even though i understand it's going to be a very difficult societal path but this is the one thing is what is on the other side and we get to see it we get to see what is on the other side of this when robots are walking around with agi brains so they're smarter stronger fitter cheaper than us and they may or may not end up bit coming conscious the does that mean we're going to see it we're going to live through it all
Speaker 3when shift happens
Speaker 1yeah i mean yeah talk about shift right right so talk about shift we've got the slow shift of the entire financial system now finally coming to see our way which is we built this for this and it's all coming to blockchain a whole lot and then we've birthed these creatures called agents and everyone's figured out oh they can only transact in blockchain it's the only thing that's fast enough cheap enough um that will operate this system and then we've been working on that and then along comes intelligence robots and the whole other thing and we're at the epicenter of it all which is why so many crypto people move to ai not because they're just profit chasing maximalists which is great but because they were open to technology technological disruption much earlier than others and you've seen it how fast the crypto crowd has adopted ai is staggering
Speaker 3thank you so
Speaker 2much for doing that for the sixth time the second time this year the second time in singapore also it
Speaker 1is we've done dubai twice singapore twice london and miami we need to change it up we need to find somewhere
Speaker 2else we will i'm sure we will thank you for being so vulnerable and open and honest once again i always am
Speaker 1it's always good fun doing that that's awesome thank you and then i look forward to the abuse i'm going to get afterwards but before you're being abused people need to go and buy the book that's on amazon anywhere else pre-order out in november called the everything code and also listen i built that ai it's raoul pal dot ai just go and talk to it it's in my voice people can just get advice think things through how do i think through a position how do i think where the market is what do i think about liquidity all of that it's all there and it's free so just go and use it how good is that ai today versus how i want it to be um 70 65 it's very useful for good conversations but it's not the source of truth on everything for sure um where it'll get to will be very different because i've built another version of gmi which is much more powerful because it's built in 21 years of everything i've ever written everything i've ever done um and then it's taking in market pricing and stuff this one's different but it'll all collapse into some experience probably within real vision soon and that's all free there so you can go to real version use it there for free and the rv brain which is amazing because like grok you can just tag it in the comment section and you can settle disputes and arguments and do all this stuff it's really smart awesome thank you so much we'll talk to you next time somewhere in
Speaker 2the world i stand as we are as you probably know by now i host some of the biggest name in bitcoin and crypto on my podcast but a lot of the best stuff never makes it on the internet and that's why i'm here today to talk to you about the real world of bitcoin and crypto and i'm going to talk about the real world of bitcoin and the shift newsletter which is where i share that raw behind the scene alpha the insights stories and lessons straight from my guests that you won't hear anywhere else if you want the real insight you can find it on my website at the end of this video and i'll see you in the next one bye bye take on Bitcoin and crypto, join my newsletter, The Shift, in the description down below.
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