Dynasty Time Machine + Training Camp News - Dynasty Fantasy Football

[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Foot Mollers Dynasty podcast with Borg Betts and a Baller. [music] Welcome in. Oh! What? [groaning] I'm doing fine. You know what? I've turned over a new leaf at this show. This is the Dinesy Podcast for those that are interested. Fantasy Foot Ballers, Betts. I'm very interested in Borg. You know what? I realized that being the host of the show, I put a lot on myself. Just carrying the weight and I just want to let it go. When we get into the show, we get in the show. I don't have to come in the way that I've always come in. Today, I'm feeling good about it. I will say if anybody tuned into the DFS embedding show from last week, the intro today was well ahead of what happened last week's show and Kyle had strep throat literally on the show trying to talk. Satan almost got me. I'll tell you that. Vegas got you. Vegas got you. I did probably get the Vegas strip strep throat, but whatever. As they say. Yeah, I've come back from the DFS and I'm here and I'm a new man. That's what matters. Look at you. Yeah, I feel like the intro of the podcast I can come in one way and today I'm feeling renewed, a renewed sense of who I am as a podcaster. I mean, I went through the podcaster's nightmare with strep. It could have put me out for weeks. Now look at me. What kind of strep throat? You got over there. It was actually weeks. It's the Vegas strip. It was actually really, really bad. Like for a couple of days. Oh, strep throat is horrific, but strep is like what? Five to seven. Yeah. Yeah, no, I'm saying like days. Not weeks. But as a podcaster, that's like my main muscle, especially if you baker may feel like you play through your injury, such a back a week. You might damage the the box and the box box and look what baker did. He's like, you know what? I'm going to be a tough guy. And now is like the the organizations saying like, okay, you're a tough guy. You're worth this much money to us. It's wild, man. It's wild. I've been to myself in a trouble by being too tough. Too much dog. He does have too much dog. You know, I mean, we have this amazing show on Netflix called a quarterback, right? Somebody has a file Kyle round for a whole season. Fancy a podcaster. It's just Kyle's documentary of what life is like trying to do this job. I mean, that's that's in our team here. Kyle is in his room again. There he is. He's the keyboard documenting spreadsheets again. There he is. But the 17th week in a row. It's the same yards per out run. Kick it. Just be look up to work. That is visual formatting. Is it working? Good. That is quite frustrating. On this episode, we're going to jump in the Dynasty time machine in a little bit, which is kind of fun to figure out this year's Michael Wilson. And we the three of us. Wait, is that mean the drop is coming? Yeah. I wanted to use it. We never get to use it on this one. We never get to use it. This show lets the drops drive the content. Oh, for sure. 100%. We have no idea what we're going to talk about. Kyle just goes into the drops. And he's just like, oh, this sounds pretty good today. Throw it in the dock. I really thought about like we have the drop that we've joked about before. It's the let's go deeper or I forget. I have deep. Yes. Yes. That in itself is a second. If you all have not gone down on insanity, don't talk to me. Get on my level. I just love that that inspired a drop for our show that we use. And now I kind of like it just for this show because we don't get to use it. But we'll do that. We'll get some dynasty mail back. I think there's some strategy questions that we have from listeners that at this point of the offseason, this point in the training camps, I think will be really, really good to kind of talk through some of that. I do want to mention that all of our projections, everything in the ultimate draft kit, they are updated live. I mean, just looking at some of the stuff we did with Jaguars, which there's been a lot of talk, a lot of talk from Liam Cohen about Parker Washington. Find someone who loves you. The way that Liam Cohen loves Parker Washington these days. Just some of behind the scene stuff, updating. I know Mike behind the scenes like that is something you're doing every single day. You Jason Nandy. Yeah, we were always jumping in to see if we believe in our projections, if what the sentiment that's coming out, because we're in coach speak era right now. We don't have, I mean, some training camp stuff, of course, is starting to filter through. But we don't have the preseason games yet. But then those start changing rankings and you got to be on the up and up. Man, this is the time you got to lock in. Yes. That's one of the contract stuff that we got in the last couple days. Betts. I know you got to update the dynasty blurbs for all of those players. Apparently, Zay flowers is worth over 100 million guaranteed. Guys, that is wild. Like I love him. I know Mike, I know Mike said on and to I feel like I signed a contract. Imagine telling yourself two years ago, Zay flowers is going to get over $100 million guaranteed. Look, that is me. You want to jump in the time machine the way I felt about Zay flowers in the draft period. I would have said absolutely. And then he just continues to dominate on the field. And then there's just stupid dumb dumb idiots who are like, I don't know. I don't know if he's a number one. That sounds like Kyle. Yeah, who are those kind of people? I would. That sounds like Kyle Andy and Jason. I'm glad I usually it's just me by myself. But to be loved in, I feel fine about that. But ultimate draft kid dot com, all the projections, contracts, dynasty blurbs, all those are updated when news changes. But yeah, I'm going to hit the drop. [Music] Marty, you've got to come back with me. Where? Back to the future. [Music] Yeah, don't you get that windshimes? And that's the show. Look, it's this might be a hot take. It's a show for hot takes. Mm-hmm. I like that one better than nice and fire. Okay. That's an unpopular thing, I think. It will be. It will be very unpopular. And you know what, that's all right. Okay, so you're glad that we played the drop then. Oh, the drop rules. Okay, good. I can't tell if there's certain drop. I mean, you're probably proud of a lot of drops. So there might be some of them. You're like, yeah, if we just want to like move past that one, we don't have to use anymore. I don't know the guy who made it, but. Anyway, Dynasty Time Machine. We do this exercise on the main show, but I thought it would be important in Dynasty, because Michael Wilson, who is now going into his final year of his rookie contract for the Cardinals. If you were to told me through two seasons, you know, hey, by the way, this guy is going to be a wide receiver one in his third year. I just wouldn't have believed you. And we kind of go through this exercise a lot where we judge players based on what they did of the rookie year. Or their second year. And I, I'm the poster child of this. I will say make decisions in Dynasty on these players based on what they've done. Because historically speaking, if you put up 1.26 yards per out run, that was through the first two years. You are among a group of players that historically just don't matter. I'll give you a list of them. Through two years, it's Josh Palmer. It's Traylon Berks. James Washington. That was Boykin. Like all of these guys drafted on day two that honestly, they wanted day two that we don't really care about in fantasy and that didn't turn anything. Xavier Ligette also on that list. So I wrote an article and I just said, hey, I can't see it for Michael Wilson in Dynasty after two years. I just couldn't see it. And then them drafting, Marv, I think we all felt the same way. Bet. I just found my answer, guys. You did? You found the guy? Yeah. I know who it is. Was this anywhere on your radar and not even just like on your radar, beginning the season, but like halfway through the season, this wasn't on our radar. I mean, he was irrelevant for the first what eight weeks, basically eight, nine weeks, whatever it was until Marv got injured and Jacobi took over. It took the perfect storm to get here, right? Like it took Marv getting injured. It took Kyler getting injured, slash benched. Jacobi dropping back 47 times a game. Like it took the perfect storm for this to happen. But it was in there all along. Like I think, you know, previously if you had been asking me, Michael Wilson, a good NFL receiver, I would say, he's probably pretty replaceable. Like a fine like wide receiver three ish type guy on the NFL. But after like watching some of the tape from this past year, you can't argue that he's better than I thought he was. Is he going to turn into like a locked in wide receiver one in the NFL? I'm not sure I'm there yet, but like I think he's better than I used to think that's for sure. I also think it's not crazy to make the argument that he produces Marv this year. I guess totally possible. So I have flipped on Michael Wilson completely. And I think what Kyler was pointing out with some of these thresholds that we use. Like you're going to miss every now and then. And there are at liars and Michael Wilson is an outlier from that group. But if you're making dynasty. decisions based off of years and years of data that goes back pretty far. You're going to be right more often than you're wrong. This is one of those rare instances where it's like, yeah, he didn't do anything in the first couple of years, but man, that year three breakout really did happen. So yeah, what a season from Michael Wilson. He didn't do anything through the first nine, like the first nine games of this past season. He had 231 receiving yards. And I like, I had a deep dive. Like that's the fewest ever for someone to finish with a thousand receiving yards at the end of the year. So like, even throughout the season, you wouldn't have said this would be the dude. I don't know anybody. Maybe I need to go back and find somebody writing an article or pounding the table for Michael Wilson week six or seven, but I don't even know if Drew Petsing was and things shipped in the offense. I know Mike, you in Arizona, I don't think you guys saw this coming either. Oh, absolutely not. He was. I remember being at a, um, I was at a, uh, draft Kings final with Smith. He, it was taking place in Arizona. He was like, Hey, dude, I got an extra, I got a plus one. I'm in. You want to come? It's like, hey, dude. So hung out, you know, the huge high stakes tournaments going on. And we were talking about, because I think Michael Wilson was like a popular play that particular week. And he was just, we're just shooting back and forth of like he's, Michael Wilson just doesn't have it. Like he's not getting open. No separation is just a, like I said, Betsy, I'm, it's, he's an NFL player who deserves to be on the field, but it's just he wasn't a, a difference maker. He was very replaceable. And then he got better, which is, it's, it's this weird thing that we forget can happen. Like, even though we all do it every single day of your life, you slightly get better at something. If you're a professional working on something, you just, you get better, but you have to, in the NFL because of how fast it is, you got to get better quick. And you got to have some luck built into it of your, your surrounding circumstances of, you still get to stay on the team and you still get to be a, a starting wide receiver. And that's what worked out for Michael Wilson and they were, they held on long enough that he looks like a, a real dude in the NFL. It's like Alec Pierce. Right. So those first couple of years, it, Pierce would hit big plays, but he, his harming would call it, he was the sacrificial X or, you know, I mean, he's just out there running windsprints team cardio. Just his entire job was maybe he gets open and we're going to take a deep shot, but mostly it's just take the top off of the defense and open things up for the good players. And then Alec Pierce gets that monster contract because he has gotten better. So let's set some criteria and, you know, we'll take multiple shots here of who could be this year's Michael Wilson. So we're looking for a wide receiver who has multiple seasons under their belts. So we can't pick a rookie. Mine's only a year, mine's a year or three guy. That's my one stipulation. Okay. That's good. That's good. That's good. Let's try to Michael Wilson. So that's my, that works. You kind of like need them to be overshadowed over using the same template like, hey, there's somebody else in the team that is carrying a bigger name. And then, but you're saying if given the opportunity, something unexpected could happen. So Mike, why don't you shoot your shot first? So I'm going with a, this is a year three guy who I liked. I liked what I saw coming out of college. It took him truly. It took him some time before he eventually transferred to Virginia, had a monster season. And then, then still falls to the sixth round in the draft. It's my leak Washington guys. The runway is told like you want to talk about Michael Wilson, the runway cleared for him. The runway is there. There's who's there? Who is in Miami? Hey, like, are you wearing a John Tolbert? I was going to say name three other pass catchers besides Greg D. Like it's the average person. That's a difficult task. There's Marshall. Oh, God, there is God. Everything I have read about training camp for in just the off season for Miami is Malik Washington is just, he's kind of the de facto number one. And then now it's, we'll look, we got Malik to Malik, right? If Malik Willis can be anything that we saw that he was on the Packers, he'll put up some yards. You know, like, he's going to throw the ball every single game, just like all the other quarterbacks. And I think Malik Washington is a good player that if the circumstances aligned, which they are right now, like, you know, on the main show I've talked about, I'm more open to the idea that Malik Washington becomes a presence on fantasy football rosters going the Michael Wilson breakout right that that's the outlier. But I still think that he can give us value. And right now he is just in fantasy football circles. It's an absolute nothing, you know, I bet he's not even drafted in, in the vast majority of redraft leagues. You might be on Dynasty Wabrowires. He might be on, you are right. Might be honest. Yeah, he's, he, he was kind of a type cast player in the former dolphins role right where it was Tyreekin Waddle. And obviously nobody else is really going to earn targets in that scenario. Exactly. And it's like, yeah, if you're a six round wide receiver, how do you possibly get any sort of target share when your competition is Tyreekin and Jalen Waddle? Yeah, my only question on him as far as like playing time and everything is he was pretty much a slot only player. Can he be an every down player like Michael Wilson became and is that I'm not sure, but I think it's a really interesting. Yeah, interesting shout. All right, Betts, you got an interesting name who I think people forget he's even on the roster sometimes. Yeah, what about Jill and Macmillan? You know, obviously for years it was the Mike Evans and Chris Goblin, check millions, millions millions. And then obviously a mecca Buka breaks out in the first handful of weeks until Gronk ruined his career, you never forget. But Jill and Macmillan missed so much of last year because he had the neck injury in August in preseason. Misses the first two months roughly comes back and has a limited role. But there was a flash in the pan in the rookie year where he was putting up production every single week and kind of just was on the field necessary and running all the routes and, you know, I don't say luck to production, but he was it was very much touchdown reliant when he was on the field as a rookie. But even so last year over two yards crowd run, it was a small sample, but it's like, whoa, maybe he is like really talented. He was on a roster in college with NFL players at Washington, right? Like, I thought you're good at stop there. Yeah, Washington. He might he was just on a roster. He was on a roster. Come on. Hey, Betts, I'll just talk to you because we're a burden bros. Yeah. Macmillan might be the best one. Why, why can't I not be a burden bro? I love that. Well, you're not a leveling bro. I can't, you've been telling us Rome is the best value. Kyle loves the value. Yeah, Kyle just get the best players, dude. The grownups are talking about the wide receiver one for the Chicago Bears Lutherbird. Who's on my dynasty roster in the league that we play? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's always leveling and you and you crap all over him. You don't appreciate what you got. Keep going. Like, is Rome really that good? I know he was a top 10 pick, but is he that good? Jalen Polk is out to league, literally retired. It's like, do we end up that Macmillan was the right pick all along? That'd be pretty funny. It's possible. And I think people are very excited in dynasty about Tedhurst and I get that perspective. I just think we need to pump the brakes on Tedhurst. This was a small school, you know, it's going to take time type of, of archetype in my opinion. Macmillan is already produced for an NFL team. I think he's going to be on the field a ton this year and if we'll see what Goblin has left in the tank, but there's a world that exists where Goblin's kind of toast and it's a Buka and Macmillan and all of a sudden Macmillan's putting up production and weekend and we count. So he's, he's interesting this year, I think. Yeah, I like shooting this shot where he's at dynasty value wise because he's probably just forgotten at the end of the bench. Nobody cares. I'm going to start from the probably most expensive in dynasty of this group to like bottom the barrel. Okay. Because like the easiest answer for me is like Josh Downs is the wide receiver you want with the Colts and they just threw a bunch of money at Alec Pierce. It remains to be seen if he's the dude in two wide receiver sets. I hope he is. I hope that like they just figured out and he's the dude, but they could also sign somebody. No, they've been linked to like Keenan and you know digs and other guys offer offer out for Debo, but he took San Francisco's. He wanted to go there. Jalen Coker is an interesting one if you think that like he could vault ahead. Trey Harris is kind of now left for dead behind the other two chargers, wider receivers, but he was a second round guy. I think we all thought he was talented, Adol mis. He's interesting. And then the bottom of the barrel left for dead. Even even under Malik Washington. Keon Coleman. Oh Kyle. Let's not let's not be silly. Let's let's not. Hey, through two years, what if I told you that he's had a better targets brought around and better yards brought around than Michael Wilson did. That's fine. That's fine. We if you listen to the dynasty pod, we knew Keon Coleman wasn't going to work. That just sounds like like the three of us, Jason for kind of all just together just said like we're going to bully this guy before he comes in the league. where our hit rate is outstanding guys. - But if you asked their GM, Brandon Bean about, it's not his fault that they drafted Kim Provin. - No, I didn't wanna draft him. - Personally, I would never, they made us. I cannot believe that happened this off season. - I think we're gonna look back and say, potentially that that GM fumbled one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history because he loved his own farts that much. That's gonna be the issue. I'm serious. - I don't know how many times I gotta say on this podcast, it is so easy. It is so easy. And part of the plan being so easy is you have a superstar wide receiver, at least one. And do they have one? - And they, no, they don't. They don't. Like I'm more open to DJ Moore having a usable, or a surprising season where you know, his, we're at the point now of, it's not an apples to apples conversation, but it was Stefan Diggs goes to Josh Allen. And you're just like, we're worried, well, 'cause Allen wasn't Josh Allen yet. But it was like, we believed very much in Stefan Diggs that this was a potential superstar wide receiver. And then he would, in like the sixth round, like the all risk was built into it. So I think part of my hesitation with DJ Moore was just, man, or people gonna freak out, like it's Buffalo, it's Stefan Diggs for sure. It's happening all over again. He's gonna get a 30% target share. But that, that the market has not reflected that. And so the market being the way it is, you have to, I mean, this is a, this is a Borgononi special of if the market is saying one thing, then I must, I must at least consider the other side of the story. - I'll think about it. I'll consider it. - See, see. - This task of us trying to find this year's Michael Wilson, if we're dead honest, there's probably not anybody like them. - Oh, of course not. - It's the fool's errand. Who's the new Puka? The fifth rounder who kind of comes out of nowhere and then is like a top three receiver in the NFL, that's not gonna happen every year. All right, last little question on him. Does he get an extension with the Cardinals? - Michael Wilson? - Yes, I believe so. - I'm with Bats, I'm playing it as if they extend them. - I think so. I think so, but it, because you might be able, it's one of those like this isn't, this is a very team friendly contract where the player gets cash, but it's also not overextending the, the percentage of the salary cap to that type of a player. So I think I lean that it probably happens. - Michael Wilson or an Irgally 2027 second. - That's not right. - It felt right when I threw it out. - Yeah. - I lean. - Probably take the second. - I lean the pick. - Okay, it's right there. Either way, but good for him, good for a player that literally came out of nowhere. Let's take quick break and we'll be right back. (upbeat music) All right, we're gonna jump into a number of listener questions and in the spirit of just using drops, Mike, don't prepare your pipes at all, don't do it. Don't do it. - I will not. (upbeat music) - Mailbag. - There you go. We get to use that one on this show and other shows. - Nice. - We have a number of submissions here that we got off X and the first one is about Camp News, which I think kind of sets this season forces from Daniel. He asks, "What Camp News is real? What is noise and how do I spot it?" So there's a couple of different variations that I almost, it'd be helpful if we could like, come up with a couple of headlines, but we do have an article on the website I want to point to, it's called the Fantasy Football Translation Guide decoding training camp news from Aaron Larson, which is kind of a fun article. But how do you guys go about this season, figuring out what's real and what's not real, especially in this age of AI when people are putting random highlights up all the time? - Oh man, this year feels, the social media clip of a guy catching a ball and then being like with the tagline of, are they, they might be back or, you know, oh, it's over, like the true-- - That Viking's bomb has been like this, it's like a-- - Are you talking the research video? - Yes, that one gets thrown around so much about Tyler's back and it's like, oh, but Tyler's not throwing the ball and that's highlights from last year and-- - Yeah. - Oh, that kind of stuff. - That's just full troll stuff, which is-- - I hate that. - I know, there's a group of people. I'm sure they like it, but I don't, I don't understand the point other than you're just like, yeah, I troll, that I did it. Okay, okay. But the news is, one-offs are fun, but it's really just, it's a steady growth of do you hear this over and over and over? The example of this offseason has been pure insanity for the Chicago Bears in terms of what do we do with this wide receiver room? We've, you know, we've joked about the gang fight of the Jets versus the Sharks, you know, you have team of Dunes A and then you have team Bird and we're all just gonna have a death match. And because of course, there can be only one. I can't be both of them. But the offseason drumbeat of Luther Burton propaganda and hype, not just from us, us fantasy football talking heads from reporters, from coaches, like Luther Burton, I feel like there's something on him every single week. And so it's very difficult to keep, to hold yourself back from the excitement. His ADP and Redraft has gotten to a point where he's just, that's a really scary bet to go in on a player who he's, Luther Burton, you have film, you can watch and play and like be really, really excited about it, but he is truly peripherals. Like he is the nerd stats. He's not counting stats. He is nerd potential production. So that's what we've been going on. But you have that then combined with everything that's being said. It's very, it's tough not to go all in, at least for me on Luther Burton. So that type of a thing where it's repeatedly over and over you're hearing about this player, not just fun videos of a player catching or dropping a ball. Those are fun 'cause we haven't seen football in quite some time, but over and over and over, that's more newsworthy than just a, oh, how do you think about this guy? Oh, I like him. I go for the most part of course. A coach is gonna say something positive about his player 'cause that's what we do. We're team players. We wanna build up the people who are on our side and build their trust. So drumbeat is what we kind of refer to it in fantasy football. Yeah, that consistent drumbeat I think is, is pretty important to follow, but along the same lines like Mike said, if you're getting a lot of your quick hitting information from let's say you're on Twitter or X or whatever, and you're just seeing like highlight reels. A lot of that means nothing, right? It literally means nothing. Correct. The thing that I care about the most is the consistency from low beat reporters saying, in install on 11/11, this is always the running back one. He's always first in line. He always gets first reps, stuff like that. Or, hey, we're lining up in 12 way more this year. Like there's a lot of talk on the Eagles and some other teams that are trying those things out. And it's like, okay, we need to think about how that's gonna affect the offense. The things that I care about the most are injuries, obviously playing time. And consistency, like Mike said, the things that I do not care about are like local beat reporter opinions. Like Kyle and I always give this example a couple of years ago when Darren Waller went to the Giants. A lot of Giants beats were like, man, we've never seen somebody move like Darren Waller. Okay, well, he was just coming off a horrible year the year prior. He had so many injuries a couple of years ago. Like, are you sure this is the same guy? And he got seemed up, remember, like in redraf leagues, by the time we got to late August, he was like a fourth round pit. I was all in. He didn't, he got hurt though. I don't recall. Didn't he? Maybe, but he did have some injuries. But I think your point is like, this is the evaluation of a beat reporter saying somebody moves differently, which is very different than a coach saying, here's how I'm gonna install this player in the offense. It's just, it's all hype. Yeah, that's a great one. And I think a lot of like a lot of times, teams have already told us what they think of players. Like follow the moves, follow their draft picks, follow the money. That will give you enough signal instead of having to chase your tail with all this kind of camp hype and news. And like, man, think back to last August. The players that dominated August, I mean, Bill was a sensation, but Bill actually was a transaction, right? Like that was actually one of those things that if you were on, hey, they might be moving off Brian Robinson. They actually did. So that transaction came true. Granted, Bill didn't have the season we were maybe hoping for, but for somebody you got off your waiver wire, like you could plug them in and play them a few times. That's great. But the things that did not work, out that were Camp Hype August that were like day three late round rookie picks that were they even going to make the team. Kondra Lambert Smith. There was a time where like he was the hype. Chargers, yes. Don Tess Thornton. Yeah. If you guys were called Raiders. Those guys dominated August last year. They might even make the team this year, you know. So just be careful. Yeah. The other one that we always talk about is when they when they share that somebody is running with the ones, you want that over a sustained amount of time. So they're consistent. Just today. Yes. Because it's what Betz brought up. It's about teams installing certain players. So like, Bershard Smith was a seventh round pick by the chiefs last year. And he he's kind of an exciting player because he has the past catching profile. They were installing him on third down and passing down because they wanted to like see how this rookie could work. That does not mean that he's the passing down. Back there just in any job you're getting experience practicing something and that day in practice, he was running with the ones, but it doesn't mean that he is now on the first team. And this year, it's like just like, I've never seen his name mentioned at all. Like a couple of times here and there, but like he's irrelevant now. He's a relevant name in 2026. So it's almost like it's more important of like, what are they not saying? Who am I listening to? And then what are the coaches consistently saying if they're saying the same thing over and over about this team? The Jaguars, they talked a lot in the off season about 12 personnel. Their beat reporters, like one of their best ones is John Shipley. He's like the dude for the Jaguars. He's kind of, he's kind of said like, I'm seeing a little more 12 personnel, but like nothing crazy the way that they talked about it. And I think that's kind of tipped some of my approach of like, they're probably going to still have three wider sewers out there for the Jags. The Jags moving off of three wider sewers with beans. That's what I'm saying. They have too many of them to be like, you know what? Let's go to two tight ends and just keep some of them off the field. I mean, it would be, yeah, that would be bizarre. Yeah. So it, there's a lot of stuff out there. And I would say if I gave a percentage, I don't know, 20% matters. Maybe that's too high of a percentage. I was going to say it might even be less. Yeah. Next question is from Lewis. He says over the past two years, I've acquired five tents of next year's first. I need to use five tents because it's 10 man league. I have one legit running back. Oh, no, hold on. Hold on. It's you Mike. But we also are spending. He says he has five tents of next year's first. So he has five of the 10 picks. Can we not just say I have half of them, but it helps give context as a 10 man league. No, but it also is very confusing to say five tents. This is what Lewis told me. Well, this is what Lewis wrote in about. Okay. Well, I have four, 12 picks next year that we have. I am certain that we have poor Lewis. We have so Louis do better. I'm certain we have several several. Math high school math teachers that listen to this show that heard that and their heart. Paws and there was like, so. Lewis. I'll rewrite it for you over the past two years. I've acquired half of next year's first in a 10 man league. Do that. That's awesome. Okay. Great work. He says I'm one way. Great work by Lewis on that. Not by you changing the question. I'm one legit running back away from a ship. Do I hold or do I overpay and I want to narrow it down when he says legit running back. I'm saying top five guy. Not like, hey, I'm, you know, I'm getting somebody down there. Like, if you have half of the first round picks for next year, would you say, hey, I'm going to go after one of these guys and maybe you have to dip a little further because these people don't want to pay up. But like sure, it would take a haul and we say all the time, like, hey, who's going to trade away Gibbs? Who's going to trade away, be John? But if you threw three first round picks, somebody might listen to you. Yeah. I'm open to the idea of doing that. If it involves anything that anything that can closely resemble or even just get a whiff of being next year's one or one, no, no, absolutely not. I will not trade away anything that could be the one or one. But what if you're getting one of the top running backs and dynasty? Look, whatever you're trading three first and one of them and you happen to get rid of the one or one, but you're getting Shimmer give us back. Guys, I know what Jeremiah Smith's going to be. And it's, but I want to win a ship. But we also thought Marvin was going to be something. And now he's just trying to. Marvin, Marvin is not Jeremiah Smith. Yeah, but as a prospect, everybody thought he was. No, everyone. If you think you are one running back away from winning a title, I don't care about the one or one next year, man, go get the title. That's where I'm at. I would look, things go sideways. We have had in our in our dynasty senior league, we have multiple years, not just multiple years. We have like I've gone into the league looked at someone's roster in totality and you're like, how do they possibly lose a single game versus stacking it up against everybody's rosters? And then literally everything hit the fan for that team. And so I was like, don't so okay, I'll put it this if you're, if your team is trending that way in season and you're like, man, I really, I got to figure this running back to spot to take me over the top. Then okay, make the trade, but don't do it right now where when the season is not in motion. But I'm telling you the Jeremiah Smith is going to be instantly a top five dynasty wide receiver. I think we. I think we agree with that. I'm with more on bets inside of like going for a ship and maybe it comes down to like going a tear down from this top five where you can say I'm going to give you two first and something else to go after like Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook. I would much rather do that. So again, the. Some I'm clear. So this person, their team can win a championship right now. Yes. All they're missing is the running back to. They just said I'm one legit running back away. Lewis, this is our buddy Lewis. Okay. So maybe it's their RB one. It will figure it out. But so it's like your team is already this good and you have all the picks. I mean, I don't know if you want to know if you want to try to middle of this thing, which I think is really dangerous in Dynasty. Like we always tell ourselves like I'll kind of go all in, but then I'll also like plan for next year. It's like you got to do one of the other is my opinion. And that's how I played generally speaking, but one or any back that came to mind when we were talking through this where you could probably give up a first and maybe something else and get the deal done before I think his value will spike. It's chase brown where we don't have the contract yet. You kind of have to claw your shot. We've talked about this on the show a couple of times. I think he's going to get an extension for it. And that's not it's obviously not going to cost you anything close to Gen T Gibbs, B John, whatever. So I think you give a first and get chase brown back. And that might feel a little bit if he right now, but if he does get the extension and he's the dude for the Bangalore for the next two or three years, that seems pretty fair to me. Just like if your team is that you're looking at your team and you're so secure of it, my team is so good. I'm just one running back away. That means you're going to win a bunch of matches, a bunch of weeks as you're going along. Just saying you don't want to you don't want to trade away three of your five tenths of next year's draft and then your superstar gets hurt the next week. So that I would I would wait a little bit. I would hedge on this in this particular situation. Next one is from at utopian warlord. Yes, when do you feel is the best time to sell high during the years? It off season preseason or at the trade deadline. And I would just caveat this by saying it's different for rookies. It's different for veterans like they have different windows of when things are best to sell high. I think that if there are windows right now for certain rookies that are like fringe guys, you're going to sell them like now's the time for to sell Cyrus Allen. If you're going to sell them probably was you know a couple days ago, but like those are the for those players, but like the sell high for me for veterans is four or five weeks in the season. People are like this is what this player is. And I know this they can't keep this up. Like remember when Joe Mixon crushed for the first 10 weeks of that season. It's like, okay, this guy's old. He's not going to keep it this way, but he's the RB one and he's been really good. I'm not like saying he's not good, but I know in dynasty, like this is the time to cash out. Dave Montgomery is that player for me this year. If he gets up to a hot start, it's like, oh, well, I'm going to flip him because I know he can be valuable, but like I know what he is. And so it's the sell high window for running backs for me is like week five in the regular season. Yeah, once injuries start to play in another contenders in your league are kind of desperate for some running back help. And you've got a guy that projects for 18 touches of game, but you know, dynasty, like this is the end of the life cycle. Like you got to do it before the seasons over, unless you yourself are contender, then you can write it out. But you need to look for those windows for sure with veterans in season. I would say the rookie hype is kind of building right now and it will continue for the next three to four weeks as we could closer to the season. There will be moments where some rookies that maybe you were lower on that you happen to grab them off a way or why are you. the third round of your rookie draft. They're getting a bunch of camp hype and camp buzz. And I'm with Kyle, like, I'm usually willing to kind of, unless I feel strongly about that player, just cash in, include them in a package deal, get a, you know, if you got them in the third this year, flipping for a second for next year, you're stuff like that. I think back to last year, when the bill hype was going crazy, I put Bill in the trade block in my league, just thinking like, hey, he could be amazing. He's also a seventh round rookie. Like, we see this all the time and I got, I sent Bill and a sec, I'm sorry, yes, Bill in a second, I got Z-Flyers back. And half of the people that commented on that on Twitter were like, you are an idiot, dude, Bill is the next running back one yada yada, whatever. And he might still be having great season this year, but you know what you're getting Z-Flyers. So like, there are windows where you can capitalize on the news. It was after the money net football run, if you guys recall that, where he ripped off, you know, the 25 round run, it was like that night, the deal got done. The, it's funny of, Z-Flyers, the beginning of last year is, I feel like people didn't really like Z-Flyers. Like, I went back and looked in our dynasty league of, he got traded right before last year started. I would have to look again, but it was just, it was a shockingly low trade value that got it done. And it's funny of like, it may be now with the contract, people will start to change their opinion. But I feel like even after he came through with over 1200 yards and what five touchdowns, whatever was, people are still like, hey, hey, this is like, so that's just a funny thing of the values A Flowers who just continues to be undervalued by fantasy players. I love that people trashed it on both sides. And that's a good trade. Yeah. And that's perfect because people are making up their minds of what somebody is what they aren't. I think people are a little disappointed. It's like 14 touchdowns through three seasons. Despite Lamar kind of being an outlier touchdown guy, that would probably be the only other side why he doesn't feel elite. I will add in this last little thought about sell high time. I feel like March is one of the best times to just capitalize on just right now. This is what's happening, which is a move happening or not happening in free agency is like, this is the perfect time. This is what happens. And there's this flurry of action. People feel like, this is what it is. And then you kind of take time to realize, like, I know we love Mike loves Romeo dobs. But like, that was the time for Romeo dobs to say like, he is the dude. And I think Mike knew they might do something else one day. Yeah. But like that was his peak value is the point. Oh, yeah, 100%. So awesome. I'm going to the comments. This is so. Oh, it's so good. This is good stuff. I'll have to. I'll have to read this. People can check it out. Yeah. Because someone who says bookmarked bets with a gif of you will live to regret this. My favorite comment on this is just your idiot. Nothing else. Just your idiot. Oh, man. Someone got burdened in a second for Bill. Dude, fancy football. So fun. Bill, Bill, hype was what you have all summer. Dude, once you have an idiot, all the information and you can look back, it's so fun. Oh, man. All right. Let's take a quick break. We'll go through some more questions. I'm going to leave a comment on that one right now too. So I have you actually blocked. So I would have been. All right. Next question is from Daniel on X asking about a couple of rookie white receivers, Jeremy Bernard or as we call him, Gurmey and Antonio Williams are ranked really low. They both have good, degrade opportunities in the rookie season. What am I missing and why aren't people on this? So Jeremy Bernard for the Steelers, Antonio Williams for the commanders. I think my first question is like, are they going to be on the field in two wider severs sets? That is, I think where the question has to start. I would say my zoomed out version is to say Jeremy Bernard has a great opportunity. I think is not accurate. You have DK Metcalf and he's gigantic Albatross of a contract. Then you have Michael Pittman who is legit good at football. And Jeremy Bernard, funny Kyle, you were like, okay, who's the Michael Wilson? And I was looking at year three guys. There was Roman Wilson. I was like, ah, Roman Wilson. But Bernard is in a camp battle right now with Wilson. I expect Bernard to win. At least just based off of the first two years of of Roman's career where it's seemingly he was not liked very much by the organization. Might have been a coaching decision, but I don't know. It seems like they did not like him. So I drafted, like I made a choice of in our rookie draft. It was, do I take Malachi Fields, third round wide receiver attached to Jackson Dart who, you know, I've kind of softened a bit, but I'm still very, very excited of Dart could be, Dart could be of one of our dudes moving forward like a true franchise and fantasy football study. It can happen. So do I want to get attached to that or take who I think is the better player a seconder pick? It might have to wait. So I took Jeremy Bernard, but I think he's a longer term type of a situation. Antonio Williams is an exciting player because the Dept Chart says that they need help right away. I would say what I've read through training camp and everything so far is sounds like a guy who will be worked in more and more and more, but right now I think we're off to a slow start. Like this, this isn't the immediate. He's jumping on the field in two wide sets and he's going to make an impact. He's going to be right there with Terry. I, of the two of them this year. Antonio Williams over Bernard, I think is the most likely outcome. But longer term, I think for both of them is not, it would surprise me if one of those guys really turned into a difference maker and not just kind of a flex play for your roster. Yeah, I think just to piggyback on that, we always like to paint the picture of the most positive outcome that could happen for these rookies. And when you think about them on your roster, you're thinking about what could be the truth is for most of these non first round wide receivers in the real NFL draft, they might hit for the NFL, meaning they will have a role and they will make the team and they'll be productive. But like, are they going to be a top 24 top 36 fantasy wide receiver? That's what we care about. And the the truth is, yeah. And the truth is though, it's just that like there's fewer of those guys than you realize, right? Like you always think that those guys could ascend to be that. And I'm not trying to, you know, not have fun, but obviously it's like just be realistic. Like pulling up Felix model in the dynasty pass, you know, Jeremy Bernard's a 77% tile prospect in in that. It's fine. We've seen that many times those guys come and go all the time, right? It could work. It might not work. I mean, 20 Williams 66% tile probably not going to be a difference maker for your roster. I also think with Antonio Williams, we just need to be really careful about copying, pasting like he is wide receiver to because as of this recording, he is, but I think it's pretty likely Stefan digs a sign in there. There's been a lot of kind of rumors on that. And so if that happens, it probably tells you a lot about what they think about Williams's ability to contribute right away this year. And like Mike said, it's kind of been a slower start. I mean, it's only a weekend, but a slow restart and training camp. So just be careful. Putting arbitrary, like this is what could happen values on players because most of them are not going to turn into what we hope they will be. Yeah. Let me just give you a couple of names to think about because we look at day two rookie wide receivers. And we say, that's pretty good draft capital in the game that we play. And we say, there's an opportunity that like they're the obvious player. This team drafted them. We know about all these other veterans. This guy is shiny and new, but we have so many examples over the years of players were we projected opportunity. And in the NFL, it's just not given to them. So like even Jalen Polk, we talked about him earlier was a second round pick by the page. And in our main thesis, because his per out stuff was not great. It was mostly like, man, like who else are they throwing the ball to? And it had to be in what like DeMario Douglas and these other cast of characters. And then he's out of the league in two years, which is a wild story. But like there's so many guys, even second round guys, Skymore, like, well, we liked his per out stuff. The chiefs needed somebody. We like Patrick Mahomes. Like this is going to be the guy. Jonathan Mingo. Remember when the panthers took him in the second round? Sure do. Jack Besh. I was holding my co-host. I wasn't going to say it. Hold your tongue, Kyle. I need to bring it up because I can finally say like I can be stubborn. But today, I was sad. Just sad. I was the best news. Always affects me way more emotionally than like almost any other player. I am so invested in wanting him to succeed. Well, what we need to figure out, this is the main thing because the news today was just that he wasn't the top three projected by some beer reporters of like, ah, he's going to be on the field. But we know is of note because they don't have anyone. Yes. And also, it's of note because clincubiac said on record that there's no turds on this team. And I don't think Check out the next one. I had the cut of his jib. I don't know if he's out of the shirt. Okay, good. I mean, the guy who could forget as a freshman, leading LSU in receptions, as a freshman tied in over Malik neighbors. That's the stuff of legends. No, the stuff of legends for Bash was that we were, I felt like as a show we were so much higher on Jack Bash than what we were hearing out there. We're like, "This guy's good." Then he goes on this second round. That's a crazy win. He dominated the senior ball. And then he did nothing. I was reminded of the trade I talked about in our dinolique for Zay flowers. This is September 4th, 2025. So this is right at the beginning of last year. Tony Pollard, Khalil Shakir, and a third for Zay flowers. Wow. (sighs) I did want to throw out this. So he brought up Jeremy Bernard, brought up in Tony Williams. Why aren't they going to set up an opportunity? There was a really good study done by fantasy points, which is just based on your round where you go. Round one, round two, round three. How much do you see the field? And in the first six weeks, if you are a round two player, you're going to average out about maybe 48%. That's been the average of the last decade. So that's not great. And that's like the average. So we see so many players in the low end. If you're around three, which is what we're getting from Tony Williams, it's down there at 30%. And it takes until week 13 on average for you to start seeing the field at a clip that really matters for fantasy. So in Dynasty, we like these guys as like a long term asset. But just even snaps wise, if you're looking up and you're like, "Hey, it's week two or three. Why isn't Tony Williams chilling out at like 34% snaps?" That's kind of the norm for these guys. As opposed to like, oh, they'll see immediate opportunity. All right, this next one is from Charlie. He says, "What are the questions?" Charlie says, "What are the questions?" A dynasty owner should be asking themselves before deciding who to cut or pick up off waivers. So you're looking at yourself at the mirror and you're just like, "Okay, obviously you can't cut anybody in your roster, you never should." No, you can't cut, you can't cut that guy. Nope. But if you were going to, here's what I would ask. All right, go ahead, best. Yeah, what were you asked best? So I think when I'm trying to find like a sleeper on the waiver wire, right, which in Dynasty, 99% of the time, they don't work, right? It's just the truth. The waiver wire is not supposed to be filled with talent. Otherwise, it's a weird dynasty. It's those guys get drafted. But if you're trying to pick up somebody that you can see the path for, I think what you're asking yourself when you're dropping a player is like, am I holding this player on my roster, but I know I will never start them. For example, there were years where I had Darious Leighton chilling on the end of my bench and I didn't feel like I wanted to pick up a rookie. And like, sure, there was probably like one time that I started Darious Leighton, spoiler, didn't win the league that year. You know, there are guys that end up being kind of roster cloggers, but you're like, they're the Widers, Seeroth, three on their team. Like maybe they could be, you know, but like in those situations, I'm fine moving off of a guy like that to just take a shot on a rookie and maybe, you know? So if you're never like going to plan to start that guy on a weekend and we got bases, I'm not saying this that you would do it for like a rookie or an up and coming second year player, but like guys that have been in the league for years, that just happen to be on your bench. If you're not looking at yourself to start those guys routinely, you probably can move off of them for an upside pickup off the way for where. - Yeah, I think that that's solid and is, it's just like what is the path or what is being said about this player right now? You know, you have to be able to really tell yourself a convincing story of, okay, this is what has to happen for this player to see a difference in their usage and how many steps is that? Like as the, I have had a ton of success in dynasty of, you know, it's hard to come by starting running backs. Back up running backs are much easier to acquire. They sometimes they fall to the waiver wire and you gotta be like, if you're staying up and up on the news, backup guys just, you'll find them there. You 100% will, like what was it two years ago? It was like Jordan Mason's on the waiver wire. - Right. - I picked up Jordan Mason like the year before, I mean, it was not a complete year, but it was, Jordan Mason was just freaking awesome for like half the year. So those types of things, but I agree with Betts, it can be the roster cloggers are the most difficult guys. Like I had, I just caught him guys. So you might wanna go pick him up off the waiver wire. Like I just cut Rashad Bateman. Like this dude was the ultimate roster clogger of, I can, you can 100% see the upside of a first round pick who flashed early in his career, just had bad luck with injuries. - You also have a good team. - The team, yeah, I do it. Yeah, I have a strong team, but saying that the ravens just keep giving Bateman money. Like they want him on the team, but it's like this isn't happening. It's not happening, it's not gonna happen. I'll let him be depth on somebody else's team. I'm gonna go, I'm gonna go pick up like Amari DeMarcato where it's like that's disgusting. But if he's following the news, yeah, I don't know that he's good at football, but everything right now, you know, Emmett, Emmett's the hot rookie could, but he was a fifth round pick if I'm not mistaken. Like everything right now is said, okay, DeMarcato's the next man up. So get back up running backs where, the plan of action is just one thing happens. All of a sudden this player is super relevant. - Yes, I was looking at our main dynasty league. I saw that you picked up DeMarcato a while back. And I was trying to like sift through and say like who were the names like George Hullani as somebody we picked up a couple months ago. It's like I just want to take shots while also clearing my roster of dusties like I'm looking at some of the guys that have been dropped like Cedric Tillman. You can move on from players like that. Jalen Hyatt, they shouldn't be on a roster. Sabion Williams for the Packers. It's like all of these guys are such French. I would drop him. - You can not cut that guy. - You can't cut that. - I would never have had that guy. - Second year player third round pick, they just got rid of. - Sabion Williams is not somebody. Well, I have a good roster too. But I'm just looking at some of the runny backs that would have been picked up in the league. And it's like those are the dudes that I want to take multiple shots on. Eric Hall Jr. is also excited. - Yes, Eric, the drumbeat for Eric Hall from the Cincinnati Bangles has like, I feel like his is the loudest that people aren't really paying attention to. - He's still on my way. - I'm on a stage right now. It's because that path is still a bit longer 'cause you have Jamar and T Higgins there who are gonna soak up good Lord. I don't 60 or so percent of the targets. So there's not a huge piece of the pass in Game Left. But we've seen Mike Gisickey on the Bangles when T Higgins missed weeks. Gisickey was awesome. As like those are the things where Eric Hall doesn't look, he's not gonna profile and all of a sudden become your tight end one each and every week. But if T Higgins misses games as he usually has in the past, all of a sudden, Eric Hall could become a Hawke commodity. It's not, like I said, you're not multiple steps away from relevance. Yeah, the other kind of ambiguous running back to situations that I was thinking of off top of my head. We don't know who the RB2 is in a de-nappless. There's a decent chance. You get a Giddins and/or Seth McGall in life doing your waiver wire. If JT goes down, goodness gracious, that guy's value immediately. So we're not sure track camp news. The other one is there's been some rumblings of like, is it for now now? Is it Isaiah Davis's RB2? Sure. Isaiah Davis's some waiver wires. Those types of guys I would be willing to pick up just to see. And obviously if it doesn't work, you just move on after the year, no big deal. So yeah, I would say right now, don't get stagnant with your bench. Be willing to pick up some upside picks that turn into an RB2 for you. I'm already Mercado and Michael Carter last year when the Cardinals had injuries. You could play with those guys, you know what I mean? And then at the end of the year, you really start dialing in and paying attention to contracts of players that, everything is a long shot, but if back up running back who hits free agency, they might find himself in a much better situation. You know, this one's ridiculous 'cause it's super outlier, but it's like, I picked up Rex Burkhead. His ex-era, and he, right, like right at the end of his, he was with the bangles, right? Things, right? And then it's like, this is a hilarious transaction. What in the world am I possibly doing? Then it goes to the Patriots. I know he kind of got Gillis lead, but like he had some value up there in New England of from out of nowhere. - The early days of the podcast were fun. I just remember, just remember a lot of those names that like, these are the guys that you just kind of rode with. Patriots Backfield, you had the Jonas Gray game. Like those were fun games. - Oh man. - Who could freak? Like that is the ultimate. Remember that guy? Remember that guy? Like 10 years from now, remember that guy? Four touchdowns or whatever it was. I think is a good segue to what we're doing next week because you guys kind of you talked about Eric all junior talked about You know some of the backup running backs next week. Oh, we're we're having our nasty boys of the summer episode so We will be giving players like I had a cup. I had someone today asked me like hey is this player nasty? They brought up Brian Robinson junior. I was like no, no, no, no. I need someone Yeah, wait a little I want some of the sun even on a roster yet. That's my goal. You know not even in the league Okay, I just cuz you're gonna put Keenan Allen down he's not Keenan ain't nasty. He's just He's just good at what he does, but we won't be doing that next week Which you know we've talked about dynasty bench strategy and stuff like that over the summer We have some different tools and website articles But the goal of that is just look at some players last year Bill was in that group that we talked about over the summer He was one of the nasty boys so next week we will give our nasty boys of the summer group It should be good, but that's gonna do it for this episode of the dynasty podcast Make sure you check out ultimate draft get it ultimate draft get calm See you again next week Good but Thanks for listening to the fantasy footballers dynasty podcast if you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level Check out the fantasy footballers.com