Dynasty Team Trajectories + Building RB Depth - Dynasty Fantasy Football

[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Betz and a Baller. [music] Welcome in! It's Wednesday, May 27th, you Dynasty folks. I'm Kyle Morganoni and I'm joined as always by Matthew Betz. It's a very radio-esque of you. Hey everybody out there, listen in. You made 27th Dynasty players? Dude, I have a video show back in the day. You did. In college. I mean, who knew all these years later? You were preparing for this moment. Way back then, you said that wasn't college? It was my friend Dustin and I who actually ended up doing radio broadcasting and then ended up being a reporter for the local, I think it was in Charlotte. But he went somewhere and I'm here. He did something with his life and you're just in your mom's basement. Talking about target shares and Jard's Proud Run. And I mean, your mother must be so disappointed. My parents are actually, my dad's the one that's like, I knew you'd get into sports statistics. I knew that this would be your life. I could tell from an early age. Maybe there's a little bit of revisionist history. But part of this was like always in my DNA and there's probably people listening right now saying, I hate you guys. I want to be able to talk about football as a living and you guys are a bunch of turds. Who gave you the platform to talk about football and dynasty fan is football all the time? I don't know. I can't believe it did. I thought the cancel us by now, Kyle, but here we are. It's so funny. I was obviously making fun of you and how your parents would be very disappointed. Meanwhile on the other side, I went to physical therapy school. My parents were like, you're doing this now? Okay. Okay, cool. So yeah, you know, it's fine. Christmas is a fine. It's not a thing. Don't worry about it. I did. I remember the conversation going to college and picking my major, which my major, I don't know if you knew this part. You haven't looked at my resume in a while. It's been a minute. Okay. It says that I got a degree. So I got my undergrad and then I got went to grad school and I got my master's in teaching. So I was a teacher for all. But my undergrad is rhetoric. I didn't even know that was a thing. You know, in most schools, it's like communications or speech communications, which for a lot of people like the football degree that people get just to like get through college. But I would say that it has helped me over time develop conversations as a writer and somehow as a podcaster. So my parents were not happy because they did the same thing. They're like, I did not know that was a degree. Like, I'm just, I'm finding myself, you know, in college. I'm trying to figure out life. I'll study rhetoric. No one knows that means, but I'm going to study it. Yeah. And obviously the podcasting industry has changed a lot. I think about even when Andy Mike and Jason started things in 2015, like nobody cared about podcasting. There wasn't like a thing that you, you jumped into. So weird world we live in. And on this episode, Betts and I are going to dive deep into the ultimate draft kit and give you some teams and their trajectories in dynasty. So we're going to look at a couple of teams that I think are at a turning point of what you can do with a couple of players. It's one thing to look at rankings list. So if you're one of those people's like, just give me the ranking for the player. That's a starting place. But we're going to talk about a team's trajectory where they're going maybe this year. And then what are the contracts moving forward and how you can kind of position yourself to trade away players to acquire them and what to do? In the example we gave last year on this episode, we're the Washington commanders. It's crazy to think about now. But after that rookie year of Jane Daniels, they were the hotness. And yet their contracts for the team suggested they were going to have to start all over, you know, all the old's Eccler, Debo, Irts, like all of those guys we knew we're going to be at the end of the contract, even Brian Robinson, Jr. who eventually was off the team. But like things change over time. And then you can see Jane Daniels, I know he had an injury filled year. But the team feels so different a year later and who we're talking about. And even a year from now, I don't know if any of those running backs will matter for dynasty purposes on that team. So things can change a lot. You watch your mouth, Kyle talking about Penn State legend, K-Tron Allen, okay? Electric athletic profile. I mean, is this the speed is just, you know, you can't you can't coach that. But you're right, it's just so wild to think about what that team was and kind of where they're going. And it still feels like they've got holes on the roster, right? Because like when we were talking about them on this show last year, the conversation was like, I would just be stashing these rookies talking about the 2025 class because it's like, dude, who knows what happens next year. The depth charts are wide open. And you know, Bill has kind of hanging on. We'll see. Bill's hanging on. The other guy is not. I haven't done that in a while. Okay. Man, last summer was the summer of Bill. Was kind of one of the guys that's like, he's still his value right now. And that could be completely gone, you know, in just five or six months. But right now that's looking okay. The other rookie wide receivers, not really, but at the same time, like they didn't really replace meaningful production at the wide receiver position. So yeah, they're an interesting team. We'll see how it works out. They're relying a lot on Jayden to elevate his offense. I wanted to give one quick announcement at the top. This is your last chance. If you want to pre-order the 2026 ultimate draft kit. It comes out June 1st, which is this upcoming Monday. And all the hard work that our team has put into it, hopefully bets behind the scenes you've been working. I haven't. Yeah, I need to do a local visit for HR purposes to see if you've actually followed through. I've actually done nothing. Just waiting for it to get done. And then the last second, be like, Kyle, I need help. And then you just do it all. Yeah, I've done nothing this year. So it's been great. Nice. June 1st, that comes out. I mean, I'm adding up right now the word count of everything. It'll be around 90,000 words, which is a short novel. But on top of that, you get all the projections from Andy Mike and Jason, which are team level projections. We'll reference today. You also have direct access to the dynasty past something that we've referenced a ton on the show. So the startup rankings we'll talk about today, like I was looking earlier. We'll talk about Jalen Waddle. It's like, I'm trying to figure out what is the bowl case for him. And then what if he's just fine in Denver? Because we've kind of seen this wider see room change over a couple of times of like, well, Troy Franklin had a moment, Pat Bryant had a moment. Quentin Sutton is who he is. So you can see all those startup rankings. You can compare them to others at ultimatedraftkit.com if you want to do that. And I did have a question from the website. So if you want to go to the fans footballers.com, you can submit a question. And I thought this would start our conversation today. It's from Brady in Colorado. He says, "Sup, ballers, how would you handle acquiring running Mac debt pieces in dynasty? What do I do about backups? Who are some names worth kicking the tires on in trades?" And he even went into detail, you know, some of his roster of like, he has some studs, but like, should I go about acquiring the backups for these players? So he mentioned he had Gibbs. Should I go get Pacheco? Or if you have Gentie, should you get Mike Washington or if you have Josh Jacobs, should you go after any of the backups there? Cause we don't know who it is. So let's first start of how do you handle acquiring running back debt pieces in dynasty? Because everybody needs them. Like every single team in your league needs debt. Yeah. And the issue here is that there's often a supply and demand problem. And so when you go to your legmates and you're saying, "Hey, I want to trade for fill in the blank, running back, you know, expect to pay a premium most often just because of that running back scarcity that exists." And when you think about like fantasy, even like, I don't know, four or five years ago, it felt like there were way more committee situations. And not just like, I know who the backup is, but this guy also has a role. And maybe I could get him super cheap as the past catcher in a full PPR format. Generally speaking, like those kind of backfills have, they're not gone, but there's fewer of them, I would say, and there were four or five years ago. So it makes that situation even more difficult to acquire running backs that you actually feel confident enough to say, I will get RB2 production or hopefully better in my starting lineup where it's not best. Well, you have to decide to start this guy. So that's the first problems that there is the premium to acquire that guy in regards to like the backups and trying to secure depth for your starters. In general, that's not something I'm looking to do right now where we have so much time before week one. And it's like, you mentioned the Packers is a good example. It's like, who even knows? Like, what? If Josh Jacobs in the first day of training camp gets injured and is out for the year, do we actually know who's going to fill the role? No, they don't know. Nobody knows, but I'll say what I cannot wait for Kyle. Marsha on Lloyd in the first week, he's going to have like a four or five day stretch where it's like, is he the RB2 and everybody's back and then unfortunately he'll get injured. Be careful trying to apply or guys like that or backups like that where you don't actually know who the RB2 is. So I'm not doing that right now. This time of the calendar year. If I am somebody who's trying to go out and get some depth, I'm referencing startup ADP and startup rankings to kind of just see like, are there guys that just aren't, it doesn't make sense to go get right now for, for a value. There's a lot of hot and heavy names. The dynasty people are obviously super excited about. You know, the young pieces from last year, Gentie, Hampton, obviously the studs at the top. So I'm trying to go down the list of like where you see the tier breaks kind of start to develop of like, these might just be water to your window type guys. And if I truly feel like I'm in content. and I don't want to break the bank with a running back to get some RB2 production. Maybe some flex value. Those are kind of the guys I'm looking at. A couple of names that came to mind off the top of my head. You could pick your favorite carol out of Panther. We're kind of a treat to that as an ambiguous situation right now. They're probably pretty reasonable to acquire. Dave Montgomery certainly is at the tail end of his Dynasty Lifecycle, but if you are a contender, just on volume alone, I feel like he's going to give you some RB2 production. Those are two names that I don't think will break the bank to get some depth on your roster, but you have to understand if you acquire those pieces, there is a floor and there's some fragility there, especially after the 2026 season. I'm looking at a rankings right now, which you could do on the app. It gets really tough because I think of the rosters in some of my leagues. If you have one of the studs, nobody's giving up Jemeer Gibbs. If you're a contender or think you're somewhat there because you're saying yourself, like I have this valuable commodity, you start to get into RB2 world. Even some of those players, you can make the case. These guys are going to finish the top 10 runnyback like Quinshaw and Judkins. You're not going to be able to acquire this guy because whoever drafted him last year sees the path forward for him despite his injury. Kiron Williams, I have him in a league and it's one of those things. I could trade away Kiron because I think Korms more involved or I think the bottom's going to fall out but Kiron's still relatively young and running back world. He has the contract and it seems like they trust him and it seems like this Rams team still has a two year window that they're trying to go for it, especially with this Matthew Stafford extension. I just look at these players in this range. It's like I can't really acquire the high end guys, but then I start scrolling down a little bit and looking at some of the names. Jonathan Brooks was one of them that stood out to me that I thought there could be more there and maybe it's nothing. Maybe you're literally trading a second round pick for nothing or a third round pick. The window for me though to acquire some of these guys has really passed earlier in the season, especially around rookie drafts like in rookie draft season or even the Jacksonville guys like by Sheldon or Chris Rodriguez. You might fall on one side of the other but the window to acquire tooton was like what March or February and now it's on the four free agency. Yeah. It's only going to rise from here. So at the end of the day, I think the problem with dynasty is that there is a market and it's based on perception. And if people know you are targeting a backup running back, they're going to say, are you on to something? So I would just say the best strategy is to make sure if you're trying to get running back depth. It's not your priority number one in your dynasty trades. It's part of a package deal. So for instance, let's say like I have Tyler Algier in a league and I've been trying to trade him and someone earlier this off season right after Jeremy love offered me a third. I'm like, well, what am I going to do with a third? I'm going to hold this player but I am going to try to keep marketing him as somebody as we get into the season that could have more of a goal line role. It's just that these guys aren't that valued. They're probably just better as holds at the end of the day. Yeah, that's the tricky thing too. And on the trade away side of it, it's like, let's just say there's a world that exists where one of these studs goes down for the season, which please don't happen. But if it does, and like Jemir gives happens to miss most of the year, everybody knows, as they have a check over, he comes the hottest name for the lines backfield and he's going to cost an arm and a leg to get in a trade. And it's like, well, if you have that guy and you know that that possibility exists, the way that things stand right now, he probably doesn't have that much value. But when that happens, if that happens, he's going to have a ton of value. So if I'm holding Picheko, I'm like, I'm not selling them to you for a third. Like, what am I going to do with a third? I'm just going to hold him. And if he gets more opportunity than we think or he gets the month coming role or having for a bit gives goes down, I'll flip him for a first or something. If somebody really wants to come get him. So that is the tricky part too. Trading for running back some time, I see man. It is, I don't say impossible, but it is one of the hardest trades to get through because everybody needs them and everybody knows it. Yeah. The biggest wins for your roster are finding guys that go from French committee to end up being like this team trust them as the bell cow like chase brown two years ago. Yeah. But that's so hard to be able to identify and find months in advance. And your team or your leg mates are not trying to be tricked. So a lot of times they just end up being held. I think just to give you a couple more running backs that I think are acquirable that are veterans and not sexy, but throwing a deals. Rico Dattle. I think is one Kenneth Gainwell is another one that I would be interested. And then I don't mind if you want to find Reminders Stevenson a spot on your roster. If you're looking for flex type value. I like I don't love the long term aspect of any of these guys. So please hear me out. I'm not saying trade for 28 year old Rico Dattle as the primary piece. But if you're trying to acquire an RB four, that's really what you're trying to get here a three or four on your free roster. Like you need to include them in a deal so that it's not actually sacrificing the best part of your roster. You're not like the opportunity cost of acquiring a running back as a depth piece should not cost you a starting spot on your roster. For sure. Yeah. I agree with those names too. I think actually both Pittsburgh backs, Jill and Warren and Rico. I think are both interesting. Also throughout too. Like if you definitely know you're at top three or four team in your league, you don't mind parting with a late second. Like the life cycle is gone on Aaron Jones. But for this year, like you're probably going to play them a few weeks, right? Like Jordan Mason is not really a pass catcher. They kind of did the Mason thing and then moved away from him. And like they trusted Aaron Jones. They trusted him a lot actually and then Demon Claiborne's like the only addition in this backfield be the draft. And that was a very late day three guy. So obviously if you trade for somebody like that, you have to understand this is for this season only. But again, if you're a contender, you're looking for depth for bi weeks for injuries, that is another name that makes a lot of sense to me. And the reason I was looking at the list while we didn't share the sexiest of names at the running position is because we didn't have the position replenished through the draft. Yeah. Right. Like I mean, just going through it's like I could take a shot at Jonah Coleman as a, you know, he was a fourth round pick. I image Johnson's an interesting name. But these are all like dart throws that you hopefully took in your rookie draft and you're not counting on them to be a thing. If anything, if they hit this year or if they give you, you know, flex worthy weeks, congratulations. That's not the expectation for this class. Yeah, absolutely. All right. Let's hit quick break and we'll talk about a couple of teams. All right. Before I hit the drop, I want to emphasize this word when I first started the finished footballers, I know that's you could probably say the same thing. The one of like the slogans of the company is that we want to take a holistic approach to fantasy football. And I just love that when we talk about dynasty, we can use a bunch of different markets to inform this. So bets and I on the DFS embedding podcast, talk about win totals for teams or, you know, for best ball, we kind of talk about a sentiment of right now. This is how the market feels. And then we can talk about some of those things. And then in dynasty kind of layer them over each other to get a picture of teams. So at the end of the day, I want to talk about players from like four or five different angles to inform like who they are, their contracts, all that other stuff. So it's just really important to me when we talk fantasy football that we're thinking of this whole list, not just like here's this raw ranking of one player at this exact moment. Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it. And at the same time too, like on this episode with these names and this, these teams, we're trying to think not just this year, but also like forecasting what could this look like in a year if x, y, and z happen or just asking questions of what could go wrong or right for a team or group of players, depending on the situation this year. So yeah, I think that's a good way to put it. And like I said, thinking of doing this in a range of outcomes is obviously the best way to do this from any form of fantasy, whether it's redraft or dynasty, but really trying to think about what happens this year and how does it affect the market next year is the key to this episode. I was driving in the rain because it's been raining a lot recently. And I was thinking about Michael Thomas or as we used to come on the show, Michael Thomas, Michael Thomas. And I was just thinking like man in in in dynasty in a startup, I remember years ago, it's like, is there any better value? Is there anything more valuable than Michael Thomas? And at the time, if you would have asked me, here is Michael Thomas and here's who he will be for the next four or five years. I would have been like, I mean, this dude's going to see 150 targets until they carry him off the field every single year, no matter what, this is the dude. And it wasn't just like this was the value that we all perceive for this player. It was like just slowly eroding away. But then in dynasty, you were like, well, if they just put him on the field, this guy can still be elite. And it just and then it was gone. It just completely evaporated. I made me so sad to remember those days. I mean, I appreciate the good times, but like how quickly it just was gone because of the injury. Porn out. Yeah. And it's more of just a tale. You can give good side and a bad side for, you know, these cases. But in dynasty, we are perceiving value of what we think at the time. And so we try not to be dogmatic about these players. So we'll talk about a couple teams. Let's get into it. Dynasty download. That's a fun drop. I don't use it. We don't use it as much anymore. We used to have a segment, but I guess we have a whole podcast about it now. Bet's and I are each going to bring up a couple teams. I'll bring up one from the NFC and we'll go back and forth. I want to start with the Packers because the game we've been playing for a while is we really rotate their wide receivers. It'll be dobs this week. Read has a blowup game, Watson has a blowup game. And it's been a, it's been a tough ride. If you've been very segmented or you've been dogmatic of this is the best Packers wide receiver. If you had asked anybody over last four or five years, who is the Packers wide receiver you want dynasty? Everybody could have a different answer and everyone was probably right for a second. Everybody is probably wrong for a second. So before we talk about this team's trajectory, I'll look at some adjacent projections. Do you feel like that is still the overarching question that people have about this team is which one of these wide receivers between Watson, Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed is the wide receiver one or the one you want in dynasties? That's still a question. That's tough to answer because so much of last year was clouded by I think a surprise season for Christian Watson. Like if you remember coming off the ACL, most of us thought like, okay, this probably isn't going to be a full-time player. Slowed Richard off the injury. Maybe he's not himself. And to his credit when he came back, he was incredible. And he was really good for a big chunk of the season. At the same time, Jayden Reed missed essentially the entire season with his broken collarbone. And then Matthew Golden, obviously we know has a not ideal track record so far in the NFL and not a great production profile to go with it. And generally speaking, those are not situations you want to buy. But at the same time, they've kind of cleared the deck for all three guys. Like you mentioned, Dobbs is gone, Don'tavian Wicks is gone. Even I think Billy Keith is gone. There's in theory some names behind them, Skymore is on the roster. I love that, by the way. Saviom Williams is a rookie last year. He's kind of a gadgety type guy. But when you think about just who's going to run the most routes this year, those are three names at the top of the list. But the problem is neither guy has ever really done it for a full season. So that I think that is a key for the Packers this year is trying to figure that out. I just think through that situation because I mean, the market is saying the Packers will be good. Historically, under Matt LaFlor, they have been very good. It's six to last seven years, I believe they're in the top 10 in touch now. It's per game. So like you want this offense, but at the same time, which guys are going to be Kyle, tell the people who is it going to be. You run into a problem when you start projecting a team like the Packers because they have functioned quite well. You'd mentioned their offense without hyper targeting one guy in this Jordan love offense. So like the last couple of years, they're not seeing guys that have to hit 20 plus percent target share. I remember two years ago, we were analyzing the team. It's like, this is a wild thing to be able to say, this is a double digit win team. And no one's really commanding more than 18% of the targets. And I look at our projections right now. And Christian Watson is the one that Jason has at the top. But he's never really been that guy in his career. Right. So we are making an assumption that this is the player and what he will be going into his fifth year in the NFL. He's only been a top 24 wide receiver in 31% of his career games. And here's the part that I think with Christian Watson, like we can project a, you know, big playability in touchdowns. But if you look at his splits with Tucker craft on the field and Jayden read on the field the last two years, it is a stark difference with Tucker craft on the field. I mean, he's averaging six and a half fantasy points per game. When he's off the field, it doubles to 12. Same thing with read his yards per game, all the stuff. So if we think that Tucker craft makes his way back, we'll talk about him too. Then I think it's just a hard thing for me to project. This guy is going to see 22% of the targets. And then you're asking him and golden. If you like him instead of Watson to basically be super efficient on a 18 to 19% target share. So I have a hard time buying into Watson. He's entering the final year of his contract, which has a ton of incentives. I feel like Andy Mike and Jason are a little bit higher than me. So for dynasty purposes, like Watson feels like a player. I just won't touch because I feel like there's enough risk that outweighs the reward of a player. I don't even know if he's on this team next year. Yeah, he's so tricky because like, I remember having this conversation about the Packers, Widers, Sievers basically a year ago in the offseason at some point. I remember looking at Christian Watson's contract and we said, you know, going into the year off of the ACL this past season entering 2025, he said to him for agency. So it's a scary proposition, right? Coming off of a dringery, set to hit for agency. And then I think it was during the season, they gave him that kind of one year extension. But at the same time, that's not enough to make people like, okay, he's here for the long run. They they trust him as the guy. Man, and this is what's so fun about these conversations because I talk about both sides of my mouth and it's like, you're not going to put you're not going to put Jane Reed on the perimeter for 90% of his snaps, right? And if Matthew go and target earning potential is as capped as the data says so far, you know, one year in the NFL, sure, but in college didn't really have that to him. So it's like, you can you can see why people are excited about Christian Watson, right? You don't have to squint. So yeah, he's tricky, man. I think for this year, he's the exact type of player now that I'm thinking about this that I had like, I'd be in on in redraft, right? Where do you think about like, where he'll probably go? I don't have a team probably, but like a middle-round wide receiver, where if in redraft doesn't work, you can just move on, right? It's not going to sink your team if your six-round pick doesn't hit, but in dynasty, if we're trying to trade an asset to go get him, or something like that, that really could be a hindrance to your team. So he's a guy that I probably will be more in on in redraft than in dynasty thinking about how it could go right or wrong. So if I have him and people are like, hot and bothered by Christian Watson, like, there is a chance that from this point moving forward, this is the back that his value will be. I hope that's not the case, because he's very fun and he's electric, but that is definitely possibility. That's the point. Is in this market-based game, I feel like we're at a point now where I don't see his value increasing. Maybe it does when he starts the season off hot and then you can maybe trade him or shop him. But there is a possibility that Matthew Golden ends up leveling up this year and just to give you some numbers this past year, you only average 18 total routes per game. So it wasn't on the field of time. A 10.5% target share was targeted on just 17% of his routes. So like, you can see what he did in the playoffs and see why he was drafted to be this player. And we both are projecting Watson and Golden to be the starting outside wider receivers with Jaden Reed in there on three wider receiver sets. Problem is when you get inside the red zone, things shift a bit in how they function. And we'll have to see Tucker craft coming back. But like a lot of teams will then go into 12 personnel and then it's kind of like his golden guy Watson's been a, you know, a red zone guy or at least a touchdown guy. So I just like the price better on Golden. Somebody that we've talked down about. And I think we brought that up multiple times as off season. I don't, I don't like betting on this type of profile. But if the price is this low for Golden, then I'm willing to do it. But I think the window to do that would have been around your rookie draft and just saying, Hey, I like Golden maybe better than this rookie I would have taken in the second round. And I'll just kind of flip him there. But what do you, what do you do with Reed? He just signed a three year extension. And so some people are like, this is it. See, they really like this guy. And it's maddening if you've ever had this guy in your roster before in any format, it is terrifying to start him. Yeah, he's like, man, this is a cop out better and basketball. You don't want to have to click the button to put him in your lineup. But I believe he's a very talented player. The problem has always been playing time, route share, and the ability to get on the field in two wide receiver sets in a league that is slowly kind of morphing into like NFL's a copycat league, right? So we see these trends where it's like on defense, you had the too high show look, you know, era for like three years in a row. And people got all into that and people started copying. Now we have these kind of more innovative play callers doing the heavier personnel sets. The league is starting to slowly draft more tight in the second round and third round of the NFL draft. And it's kind of slowly doing that and eventually will leave this window. And I'm sure it'll be different in four years. But right now, like his archetype doesn't fit kind of that movement. And so he's a tricky player because when he's on the field, I believe he's a very talented player and he's very effective. And he can do things that Christian Watson can't do. They can do things that Matthew golden potentially can't do either at the same time. Like I said, you're not going to line him up on the perimeter on an every down type of situation. So his fantasy value will always be capped as long as that is the case. I've talked myself into situations before where it's like, maybe this is the year they do that with Reed. And I feel like after a certain point in a player's career, you kind of have to stop thinking that way. Like we're entering a window where it's like, it hasn't done it yet. Not saying we should close our mind of the opportunity that it might happen. I just think the possibility of that happening is far lower than I thought it could have been two years ago. If they really wanted Jayden Reed to be an every down player, I think they would have made that happen two years ago. When he had his hot start as a rookie and he really came on strong. And since then, that's just has not been the case. So I'd love to be wrong about that. But I just think after a certain number of years in the league, generally speaking, unless you change teams like play colors and OCs and the staff kind of know you and they know your strengths. They're going to use you that way. And again, he's just not a 90% route guy on the primitors. It's just not his game. So his value will always be capped. I hope I'm wrong out though. This team is efficient. Like across the board, they run the ball time, but like passing wise, they've been efficient. And Jordan Love has kind of lived off that. He was number one in the league in yards per attempt on third down last year. And I just look at the passing pie for these three guys, Watson, Golden and Reed. And none of them so far have been huge target owners. Christian Watson's We saw 20% of the targets in a few minutes. his game is played. That's a career high has been at 16%. Reed was down to 13% in his games played last year. He's average for point eight targets per game. Of those three, I think you're saying that Watson would be the guy if he was going to jump somewhere to like 22, 23%. I would think so. It just feels like I don't want to buy like reads on the wrong offense to be able to be a fantasy star in a double flex league. Sure, start him as your wider receiver for that's fun. But it the experience is so up and down. It's really hard to count on him and it's hard to then make that jump just because of the contract and say, well, now he's going to be on the field every single down. So I just at the end of the day, I just think I'm not going to buy into anybody other than golden at his price. And then my other question is about Jordan love. Is he kind of capped as like a, like he had that career season where he was the QB five and kind of since then I feel like he's capped at like QB 10 to 15 range for the rest of his career. He's so interesting because aside from like an outlier touchdown season. Yeah, yeah. Of course, any pocket passer couldn't get there if they have an outlier touchdown rate. He's always been so efficient, like looking at EPA per play, EPA per dropback, some of those advanced quarterback metrics. He's always there. Like I think Jordan love is very good. But I don't know what it is. Like Matt LaFlor seems hesitant to kind of cut it loose and that be the enemy of the offense. Like they are so content to give Josh Jacobs the ball for four yards, three yards on first down and just kind of stay on schedule and do the old school stuff and then hit you with shot plays and hit you with the efficiency off of it. So I don't know that we're ever going to see the game plan be, you know, go be Joe burrow, go drop back 44 times a game. Like that's in wow, game scripts. Of course, it can happen in one week. But like as the actual identity of the offense, I don't know if they're ever going to be that or at least not in the short term. So that's the tricky part because from a fantasy standpoint, I think he has the tools to be an awesome fantasy quarterback. I don't know that we get enough volume for it to really be like a true difference making season. And obviously he's not necessarily known as an elite rusher. So that's not going to help his case. But yeah, I'm a big Jordan love fan as like a real life NFL quarterback. At the same time, I don't know if there's enough volume to make it a be a situation where you're counting on him outside of super flex leagues to be in your lineup every week. I'm looking at Jason's projections right now. He has the Packers with 535 attempts, which is like middle and the league, like just almost like dead center. And I just have a hard time seeing them like Jordan love could throw for 4,300 yards. Yeah, I think so. I just don't think they they're asking him to. And because of that, he kind of sits in this range in dynasty startup where he's a fine QB two and you'll get some moments where he can be a top 10. But like that's kind of the the range he settles. And then Josh Jacobs last thing. I'll say about him. I think you need to wait for early season schedule to get some touchdowns. If you want to trade him now is not the time to do it, but they are favored in their first six games. So my advice for that is like week two, the jets week three Falcons in a prime time game at Lambo. After that game, that's when you trade away Josh Jacobs. How many yards three touchdowns in coming? So are you are you on board with that with Josh Jacobs? You know, it's so tough. You just talked about the running back landscape, right? It's like if you're a contender, like you're obviously holding him at the same time, he's a running back that scares me from a dynasty outlook where for this year, he projects well, obviously, but it's beyond this year. What does that look like? Who knows? He's kind of hitting that age in dinosaur. You start to ask those questions and you start to consider, I'm not saying this player will be bad, but do I want to maximize my return in a trade on this player? I think that window will close pretty quickly on Josh Jacobs, where you'll have that window right now in this this season coming up. So if you're not a contender, I don't mind that approach at all because I do think you're looking next year. You're not going to get the same thing you probably would for a trade of Josh Jacobs. All right. Let's stay in the NFC. We start with the Packers and let's bring up the Buccaneers because you and I were talking off air. This is an intriguing team. That's really out the crossroads because they're post Mike Evans. And we are kind of left asking the question of, was this team propped up by Liam Cohen's play calling by Dave canals play calling and now they're having to start over again with Zach Robinson now at OC. We're kind of asking some questions about Baker. It's like they fell apart in the second half just completely fell apart. So where do you want to start the conversation about this team? Because we're going to work our way through pretty much everybody. But there's so many names to talk about. Yeah. They're so difficult to figure out what this off has going to look like and kind of who you want in fantasy as a result. Let's start with let's start with the wider seepers. I think that's the most interesting conversation. I think Bucky is very intrigued. We'll talk about the running backs. But I mean, this is the first time ever. We're going to see this Bucks team as we know it without Mike Evans. Like that's huge. Obviously, and you think about how are they replacing him? There was a good article that came out recently from gentleman playing who covers the team and basically talking about like there's two options here. Do we think that they go with Ted Hurst, the rookie as like the true ex receiver? Not saying that he will replace Mike Evans from a production standpoint. Obviously, that's very hard to do. But more from a playing time standpoint. And it's like, well, if that scenario plays out and he earns that trust and he earns that role, how do you get Godwin, a book and a million on the field? Is it just a rotation? You know, what does that look like? That's a major question. If it's not Hurst, does Zach Robinson say, okay, let's, let's not have that traditional set. Let's just have three or four guys that are burst out. They can move all over the formation and not have to have a, this is where you play type of situation. And for a younger play caller, you would think that's kind of how it works out. Like, I don't know what your thoughts are, Kyle, you can talk to this more than I can. Probably about the Falcons and Zach Robinson's kind of 10 year there. But I do remember like there being moments of like, I wish there was morph in this offense. And at the same time, with Drake London, there'd be a lot of fun stuff, especially in the red zone when they move them into the slot, create those mismatches. If he can bring some of that and maybe that's Godwin week, maybe that's in a book a week. Like I'm, I'm kind of into this offense. But at the same time, I was joking with you before the show. I was like, the Falcons in every metric of the last two years are just, they're right in the middle, man, they're just average. You know, there's nothing that gets you like overly excited about this one thing. They're like, averaging explosive play rate, averaging EPA, average and scoring like, they're just the offense. You can't copy and paste like, oh, this is going to be an amazing scheme. The way that we are doing with it's like, look at Mike with Daniel did with the dolphins. Like, what could he do with Justin Herbert? Right? We're not doing that with this offense because of the limitations of Atlanta. So the Y2Civers are fascinating. I think that scheme and usage is one conversation. The other player level conversation is what do you do with Ibuka who, if you took him in a rookie draft, flash drive to the first five or six weeks, I mean, you felt like you were on top of the world. And then every week after you had to keep starting him, but it just was like, you know, punch in the gut after punch in the gut. And obviously it was a very, very disappointing second half. So where do you want to start the conversation with the Y2Civers? Oh, man. I mean, I'll quickly just say being stuck in the middle of the NFL, they say it's the best place to be when you want to build a franchise. It's just to not have a winning season for a long time. With it, Buka, like, just to put context in those first five games, it was the second most fantasy points all time by a rookie Y2Civer. So Puka blew the doors off. Then it was like, Buka, the neighbors and chase. Like, it's, it was a historic start to a career. The problem with this team, if you're looking at just the way that their team lined up, Evans had some injuries, but he's the only one on the team that can like play bully ball. Like when the balls in the air, he's going to win the contest catch or he's going to body somebody on a slant. Baker was dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt against man coverage. Like how bad? Like he was worse than Dylan Gabriel, it's like historically booty. And then I look at this roster and it's like, well, Ted Hurst could maybe be that guy like just bigger body, downfield, X receiver. Who else is that guy? Like, and so like God, when's at this point of his career, he's probably going to be more in the slot. Buka's probably going to be a Z Y2Cver. He's the, he's really the key. If they move him around the formation, they bring him in motion. I think this team could be okay, but they're basically asking a lot from Macmillan or Hurst to be this guy considering they don't run as much 12 personnel as they probably should. And I look at the personnel of their team. It's like maybe the best part of this team is if they played Bucky and Gainwell. Like Gainwell is essentially a wide receiver. Like he's in the mix. So this team is tough to look at for 2026, but I think you still need to be bullish on a Buka as a top 15 dynasty wide receiver. He still commanded the targets and still was targeting on a per out basis that if I compare him to all the first round wide receivers of the last decade, it's in the 75th percentile. I can still awesome. It's just that we felt the, the punch in the gut of the final, you know, seven, eight weeks. Yeah. And if you look at the splits, right? Like obviously the hot start was incredible. Nobody really saw that coming. He had a great camp last year. People were very excited about him, but nobody saw the second most finalist, fantasy points ever through the first five games happening. Of course. And so when that happens, you get this mindset of like, this is the normal for him. This is the expectation. But if you look at some of Baker's numbers, a Buka's touchdown rate, those were just unsustainable. So we should have expected some regression. It's just that it hit in a way that wasn't like a gradual decline. It was like literally all or nothing. And there was also some factors at play, right? He played through a hamstring injury at times a book. there are some rumblings of Baker being banged up. The offensive line was injured last year. So if you just zoomed out, you don't look at any splits first five or six weeks versus the last two months. You just said the entire season, look at it, Lucas Numbers, put him in our formula that we look at in our spreadsheet and say like, what are the chances this guy hits in the NFL? Is the rookie wider see-ers taking the first round? He ever join 0.75 girls per out run as a rookie. If you just told me that, I'd be like, that's probably a pretty good player. Maybe he's not gonna be Jermar Chase. Nobody really is, right? So it's not fair to compare his start to Chase and Puka and those guys, but like, if you just put up that efficiency as a rookie and you first round draft capital, I would say that guy's probably gonna be a pretty good dynasty eye sight moving forward. So at the end of the year, I was questioning like, how talented is he actually? Like what is his role in the NFL? Because when Evans went down, I think they had him doing stuff that he maybe wasn't either ready for or wasn't in the plan. Like not saying he can't get to that level, but when you lose somebody like that and Goblin, of course, was in and out of line up all season, you don't have the ability to kind of learn the NFL and learn different position at Wider Seeber in the pros. You're just thrust into it and saying, this is the game plan this week, you have to go do this. So I think now that the dust has settled, let me just kind of take a step back. If there's any fun on a book out there and people are kind of worried about what happened in the last two months, I personally am not buying, that's the normal like, am I saying he's gonna be the Wider Seeber he was in the first month of the season? Probably not, is the truth somewhere in the middle? Probably, and like I said, first round Wider Seeber with pretty good efficiency, generally speaking, you bet on that, it will work out more often than not. So now that we have this ambiguous situation, and people don't know the target share, and they don't know what it's gonna look like without Mike Evans, I'm just betting on the young ascending player over, I get Ted Hervs excitement, okay? Like, he's kind of a fun prospect. Chances are this won't work. He wasn't a great prospect, like they don't have high draft capital in him. Chances are it's not gonna turn into a prolific, fantasy score, Jill Luck Millen is fine for what he does. Chris Godwin is definitely on the wrong side of kind of his age curve, right? And we have these injury history now, so it's like, man, just, if we look back at the end of this year, and we're like, remember when we were so worried about it, Buka? That seems so silly in hindsight. I could see that happening. So he's one of those players, I'm definitely trying to acquire, won't be cheap, but I think there's a buying window now that maybe would not have been there if the second half of the season obviously didn't happen. Right, and if you reverse it, if he started the year off slow, and then he finishes with the final seven weeks on fire, we'd be like, this, Luther Burton, right? Is the reverse of that. It's funny how that does to our consciousness, but I have an article that I wrote a while back called Dynasty, Wide Receiver Thresholds, that matter, and all it does is just compare. Here's what this guy did in year one. What is the average for the first round? So at least like you get some context, like this is better than what CDLAM did, as a rookie on a lot of per-route stuff, target share, everything else. And I don't think you forget at the time, it's like, oh man, CDLAM will still stutter all the way through. Like it took a couple years for him to be, you know, a top six wide receiver, but I do want to give you some names with that Buka, because he's such a fun name to talk about. Let me see if I even got the big boot drop. I don't even have him in front of me. Okay, am I even doing my job? Do you care? Oh. - It's a rookie sensation wide receiver out of Ohio State. Imiqa, a big boot. - Would you rather have in Dynasty, a Buka, or Garrett Wilson? - Oh man, that is tough. - I would go a Buka. - I think I would too, even though Wilson's just a target monster. A Buka, or, this is a tough one, the Montaix Smith. - Man, the Eagles are another fascinating conversation. - I think for the age difference, I would lean a Buka, but that's honestly a coin flip. - Yeah, but almost four years right there. All right, one more name, Lad Maconkey. We love Lad. - I'm not quitting on Lad. I'll go Lad. - I think I'd go a Buka. - That's fair. They're super close, that's really tough. - Okay. - All right, and then what, I know that the ballers have talked about Bucky, if you wanna listen to the main show, you can listen to a full conversation about Bucky. My question about him is what is his role on this team? Because Sean Tucker has been the goal line guy. Bucky had no carries inside the five. We know Gainwell can be elite as a pass catcher. And he ends up being like, is Bucky gonna be a between the 20s guy? That is so frustrating for fantasy, because we know Bucky can hit the long run, but the most valuable targets are inside the red zone. The most valuable carries are inside the 10. And it's like, if he doesn't get those, you're asking for wild efficiency. And he was arguably one of the least efficient running backs last year. - Yes, but also playing through injury at times, right? So then there's that equation. Is that prescriptive or descriptive? I think it's probably more descriptive because he was so efficient as a rookie that I don't think we should say that this last year is who he was. At the same time, we talked about this, it's a market based game right now. And there are no, there's nothing out there. Right now that's positive on Bucky, right, he's not in the OTAs because of the shoulder. You know, there's all this fun on him from last year. It's like they signed Gainwell. Right now, if you're not a believer in Bucky, which I'm not saying you should or shouldn't be like, I think it's fine to not want to be in on him. Now is not the time to trade him, in my opinion. Like you've got to wait for a moment in season, maybe positive camp reports, something like that. Like now is not the time, but this is a good reminder of like what can happen to these day three backs after even one or two good seasons in the league. Like historically, that's generally more often than not. You're not gonna always be right on these trades, right? It's a game of probability and fantasy and especially in dynasty. More often than not though, on those day three backs that hit as rookies, you just have to take a step back and ask yourself like, can I just get maximum return on this player and kind of what my hands clean and move on from what could be a murky situation. And that's what happened with Bucky. So do not trade him now. The market cannot be lower on him. But yeah, it's a good reminder if we'll can happen to day three backs in the future. - If you're gonna want to trade for him, could you get him for a late 2027 first? - I don't know that I don't wanna do that. - That's what I was wrestling with that and saying like, the inherent risk is that this is a segment at backfield and I end up like having a running game that's fine and good and yet I didn't get the return that I wanted. So I think I would start to poke around and get a second and another young player to see if you can make that work. But it's tough man. - Yeah. - It's tough because we wanna require running backs. We don't wanna be on the wrong side and then set ourselves back a year. I'm like, I traded for this guy and he's not even one of the main running backs here. So tough team man and Baker was playing through something at the end of the year. - Had to be. He just didn't look right. - Yep. - Let's hit Quick Break. We'll talk about a couple more teams. (upbeat music) All right, let's go with the team that had the best record in the AFC this past year. The Denver Broncos went 14 and three. But if you're looking based on just scoring differential, 11 and 6 probably was a little bit better. I mean, they were fortunate in some games. They were tied in 23% of their offensive snaps. So like during the games, 23% of them, that was the highest rate in the league. They were just on the right side of stuff. And if you look at their team's performance, they had the lowest yards per attempt of any 14 plus one team ever in NFL history. So I wanna start the conversation about Bonyx. A year ago in Dynasty Circles, Bonyx would have been the name you would say, like this is going to be the guy for the next five to 10 years that is going to be a stalwart as a top 10 quarterback. He ends up being the quarterback six. And yet if you had Bonyx's past year, it did not feel like the quarterback six in our consistency rankings. He was like quarterback 16. So, weekend, week out, it was really, really rough, including 33% of his fantasy points came in just three games. So wild season. Where does he slot and we'll talk, I'll give you some names to compare, but like what's your outlook on Bonyx recovering from injury? That's one thing. And then just as a fantasy quarterback. Yeah, he's, he's tricky because on one hand, you like the weapons, right? Like adding jail and model, generally speaking, is a great thing. You have one of if not the best offensive lines in football. I think it can sense this top five based off whatever, you know, group you look at, like this offense is great. They return all five starters in the line. We like the scheme, we like Sean Payton. Like I really think there's a good chance we see sustained offensive success from Bonyx and the Broncos. The problem for me is like, if you think about the way this team is set up and think about how good this defense is, generally speaking, like they're not going to get into a ton of shootouts over the next year or two with the way this team is set up or at least they probably don't want to. And so when I think about some of these wild games that he had against like the giants, what they actually had to come from behind, you know, like that's not the norm for the Denver Broncos. So I do feel like his ceiling is probably capped in. When I looked at like some of the average implied team totals that you put together, Kyle, for this season, they're at like 21st or 22nd. I forget the number of top my head. Like the market is not saying this is going to be a high scoring offense or a top 10 offense, a top five offense. So I'm worried about like the perception on Bonaix. Like he feels like a fantasy friendly quarterback who's not going to miss. But at the same time, like it's just more of the production and the touchdowns come on their ground or the defense holds up there into the bargain and they're not in these shootouts. I think Bonaix could have a fine quarterback 12 season, but like not be a difference maker. So for me, I'm okay with him in dynasty. I don't know that I'm, As excited about maybe the market is is how I put it. Yeah, going into last year, this was a quarterback routinely seen as like a top eight dynasty quarterback. I mean, even as high as like QB six at one point, we have a McQB 12 in our startup rankings. And I think that's the issue year to year when you only look at rankings and you say, here's this player, he's going to year two. Like this is going to be a good team. And obviously they responded that way. I made it all the way to the AFC championship game. There's just room for players in the way that they play to regress. So if you look at just some of the metrics behind the scenes, he was 30th among 38 qualifying quarterbacks in off target rate. He was 24th in completion percentage. But here's the thing like they had maybe the best offensive line in football. They dealt with some injuries down the stretch. But like he was first in sacrate, meaning like he was sacked the fewest of his drop acts percentage. But when he was pressured, he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in yards per attempt when he was pressured. Like down there with Shadr Sanders and J. Jim McCarthy in terms of pressure rate yards per attempt. So I have issues with the way that he plays the game like and how it translates to scoring fan points. He runs enough. He's average 23 rushing arts per game through two seas like that. That's a fine floor. But I don't think this team needs him to throw the ball 40 times a game for them to be good. And the worst side of bonus is wildly inaccurate throws. And the dude loves being outside the pocket. And it's just over time. That just doesn't add up to being a difference maker. It's my issues always with Caleb Williams is like, high end outcomes. Dude, they are there. There is a rookie, but they also lead the games where he is so wildly off target, especially outside the pocket that they don't add up to fantasy points the way that we think for his past catchers. So that's kind of my concern with like some of the dudes I like Waddle. I have Waddle in a dynasty league and he's a hold for me. But like there's a range of outcomes where Waddles like the wider seaver 22. And it doesn't feel like it moved before because I don't think this team needs him to see 150 targets. The thing too is just like Sean Payton historically as he's always love rotations at the skill group, right? We know the deal with the running backs. It's said stone. We've known that for years. We saw last year. We'll skid again this year. But even at like wider seaver, right? Think about recent seasons like Simon Jordan, Voldron Humphorn off the seat off the street to run routes. And then there was a moment where it was like this quote and sentence team and it's like, no, this is dry Franklin team. Oh wait, remember Marvin Mims and he'll do this where he like rotates game plans and rotates players in. So when you think about logically, like you send a first round pick for Joe Waddle, you're probably going to use that player, right? Obviously. But at the same time, like nobody should be surprised when it's third and sixth and they have to have it and all of a sudden you have this like fluky screenplay to like Nate Atkins or whoever it is. That's not one of the main guys. Like there will be a rotation here. So I see the high end.com for sure because Joe Waddle is that type of a player he's electric. But it's been so long. It's been so long. We've seen sustained success from jail and model for fantasy. So adding in the the nicks concerns like I think it's highly volatile. I could see. Oh, this was great. I could totally see that. I could see it being like you said. Okay, is wider seaver 24 again. I'm happy I have him, but I'm not like winning my lead because of him. So yeah, they're tricky. You mentioned the bow nicks consistency. I wanted to go back and look just to see like the ups and downs and everything. He was only a top 12 quarterback in eight games last year just to kind of speak to that. And there were three instances where he was the weekly quarterback 12. So it's like most of the time he wasn't the reason or a huge reason you were winning your matchup. So it's like he's fine most weeks. And then he had amazing spike. There's three three games. Right. So yeah, it's I could see a number of directions, man. It's tricky. When you start to sort out their targets too. Like I'm looking at right now we have the vacated opportunities where you look in the running game and the passing game. Okay, so who left and what like nothing changed for this team? 0% of the targets 0% of the rush attempts have changed since last year. And then you add in Jaylen Waddle. And the weird thing is is like you think of Troy Franklin and Mims is like, okay, well, they're irrelevant now. Like they had valuable bit roles on this team, especially in the screen game, which has kind of been something we know Waddle can be good at. We know what Sutton has been valuable for. I mean, he's been the wider seaheer 13 as unsexy as it is in back-to-back seasons. Okay, over a thousand yards seven touchdowns in each like that's a valuable role for this team. He's under contract by the way for four more years wild contract for Quirland Sutton. And like Troy Franklin as silly as he has been a joke on the show Jason's brought him up. He had the valuable targets. Last year, we're like, he led this team and inside the 20 targets. He led this team in deep targets. So you can just put him in the Jaylen Waddle role if you want, but he's still going to be a part of the rotation. Same thing with Pat Bryant. So it's an interesting, weird team. They add Justin Jolie, the receiving titan at a Vinci state. I feel like this team is going to be better in real life NFL than they are for fantasy. I think that's a good way to put it because the production I do agree with you will be pretty spread out. I can't really forgot about Pat Bryant to be honest with you. So yeah, makes sense. Do you think they forgot about it when they told him they traded for Jaylen Waddle and he's like, his agent's just like pissed, just absolutely pissed. Are you trying to sell any of these pieces in Dynasty? That's tricky. I mean, the guy that I would like to capitalize on after his rookie year was RJ Harvey. Now the window I think is close to do that at potentially fair value to the point where it's like maybe I just won him in the roster now because everybody's so out on him, right? But at the same time, I'm nervous about RJ Harvey long term. There's always guys that you could consider trading away, but like you said, what are you getting? Who's coming to you for Quartan Sutton? Nobody. I mean, I don't have Quartan Sutton. I'm not. But you're not getting that meaningful for him right now, most likely, especially after Jaylen Waddle trade. So the name that I think you could get fair value for and potentially get a good return on his bonus, but that's league dependent because in one quarterback leagues, it's just tough to get trades done for quarterbacks in superflex. I think you could potentially capitalize there, where I'm not saying he's going to be a bad fantasy score. Just like I said, I think the public perception on him is juiced up by those three huge games, but largely he's been a replaceable player in your lineup from a quarterbacks standpoint. All right. Let me give you a couple of names for bone, bone X Jordan love or bone X in dynasty. Dang. I'll side with the guy that will run more and I'll side with the bone X. That's where I am too, but it's tough because like Jordan love. I don't think bone X could lead the league in passing touchdown. Jordan love could do that. Yeah. That is right. 3035. Dak Prescott who is bound to be 33 years old or bonix. Man. The ballers love some Dak Prescott. I know. If I'm a contender, I'd probably lean with Dak. Okay. One more name here. And this one stopped me in my tracks. Bonix or Brock Purdy. We should have talked about the Niners today. They feel fragile like the Niners as we know it. I think you're slowly not gone, but like Kittles old, like Evans is old. And yet I still trust Shanahan. Yeah. That's true. I think I'd take Brock Purdy. I think I would too because he runs he runs enough and I think they need him to do more than what they need bonix to do for fantasy purposes. Mm-hmm. Talking about the quarter acquisition. Okay. I'm going to bring up the quarterback that is actually right above bonix and our dynasty startup ranking. This Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. And this is a team that we're going to finish talking about here. Lay out to me how this team finished last year because they won the AFC South. They were 13 and 4. They were really close against Buffalo and the AFC wild card game. But we do need to give some context of their second half. Yeah. The first half I think was filled with the growing pains that you might expect from the first time head coach a new scheme a new play collar on all that sort of stuff. I remember like vividly in like week two. There's like a screen pass or something like that. Or it's just an easy completion to Brian Thomas and they pan to Cohen on the sideline. He's like hitness. He's like hit him in the chest. He's like yelling at Trevor Lawrence. And there was like those growing pain moments and then coming out of the buy week, dude. I don't know what happened or in the buy week, but they found something they were insane. They went nine and one after the buy. They were averaging the second most points per game to league. There were seven to eat paper play. And from that buy week on Trevor Lawrence had a 6.6% touchdown rate. Doesn't sound insanely high, but for Trevor Lawrence, that was a massive leap because historically he had been like a below 4% type of quarterback, which is well below league average. So Cohen unlocked Trevor Lawrence got the best out of them at the same time. I find myself asking how repeatable that was because when you think about the teams they played, you know, they beat the Raiders by one. The Charters were a good team last year. They beat them. So credit there. They beat the Broncos credit there. But it's like, man, it was the Cardinals, the Titans twice, the Colts twice, one of which was the game where Jones actually got injured. The other game, Daniel Jones obviously didn't play. It was Philip Rivers and the Jets. So like they beat up on a bunch of bad teams. And now I feel like there's so much excitement on the Jaguars. And I totally understand where it's coming from. But I will just say I was kind of shocked like looking at the market expectation for this team from the like looking at the betting markets. Like there were only favorite make games based off the look ahead line. And for a team that was so good last year, you think how is that possible? Their average implied team total is 18th. So this is the team that was top 10 touch on screen. for game, one of the best scoring offenses in the league and the market is telling us as far as like the betting future is like pump the brakes a little bit. And so that has me worried at the same time, like we have just ambiguity everywhere on the roster, right? Like running back, we're trying to figure it out. We're not really sure. White receiver, we're still doing the, how much is Travis Hunter play type of thing, is Brian Thomas good anymore type of thing. Apparently Parker Washington is the guy, you know, Jacobi Myers got paid like, we don't really know how the target's going. Even it's hide in. Brenton Strange is a totally capable pass catcher. So it's like, you start to give all these guys targets. And eventually it kind of feels like the Broncos a little bit, right? Where it's like, maybe not the defense as far as the level of play that we'll get there, but just when you spread it out this much, it creates completely uncertain situations. And I don't know how to forecast this, like quite frankly, because I think Trevor Lawrence comes back down to Earth a little bit this year, that's probably a contrarian take 'cause we always assume, oh, it's only gonna get better in the second season with that play call. It's only gonna get better. It's like, man, I think that 10 game stretch that we saw may be the best we'll ever see. And it definitely has been the best we've seen so far from this type of guy. So they're tricky, man. There's a lot of warning signs to say like we've probably shouldn't copy and paste what happened. But at the same time, like we'll like Cohen system and obviously he's gotten really good quarterback play wherever he's gone. So the Jags are fasting. Do you have a read on the wide receiver room because this all feels so fragile? - Washington, like he just looked great if you're just ball watching. - He was awesome. - And your dude, who's awesome. As a separator on this team, I have a hard time trading for a player like that in a contract year and his values only boosted. So he's a player that I'm only trading for like in a combo deal. I'm not like trying to just acquire him and people think like, oh, you know something I don't. Thomas is like a case by case basis where the market is totally dependent on what did this person think was going to happen after a wide receiver four finish because if they thought it was only gonna be great forever and they're disappointed, you wanna capitalize. I think this team, like, okay, I said this to you off air and I'm just gonna say it again, Liam Cohen is good for this team. He was not great for allowing multiple fantasy, like assets to hit the way that we thought they were gonna hit. Brian Thomas's usage changed completely and I worry about having to feed three or four guys. I also worry about it with Trevor Lawrence because his touchdowns inside the 10 yard line, you're not gonna be able to repeat that. ETN was terrible, HN, whatever he's called now, is was so bad inside the fight that they brought in Chris Rodriguez who was awesome in terms of rush and success rate. So I think the touchdowns are gonna change a little bit for this team. They said they wanna do more 12 personnel because they didn't run very well at a 12 personnel last year. I think the buying window for this, I think Lawrence's price is too high for me. So I don't, like, he could be repeat and be like a top 10 quarterback. I don't call that a win in dynasty based on what you're having to trade for him right now. I think you're finding Washington or Thomas as whoever the cheaper one is, that's the guy I wanna go after. - Man, they're different players, right? They don't play the same position, obviously. But I think about historically, like if you just said, what is a player done in the first three years of their career? And then they have a five or six game blip where they do that thing for a short period of time. And I'm not saying it wasn't great, it was awesome for Parker Washington. But like, they didn't go into the season saying our plan is Parker Washington. They happened to have to use him because of Travis Hunter, a season ending injury and Brian Thomas Jr. Disappointed to some degree. So I find myself like, if there is any window to send Parker or what Parker Washington away in a trade, I probably would do that. I just don't know that, like, honestly, players are getting smarter, right? Like, you're not gonna sneak one by somebody. - No. - So you would hope in that situation. So he's a scary investment because of the short, small sample size. I still, I know it didn't work last year at Brian Thomas. In my mind, you don't go from what you do as a rookie to all of a sudden, like you can't play in the league. So if there is a guy I'm buying here, whether it be just a bounce back, it's Brian Thomas, or if it isn't with the Jaguars, like maybe he's a trade candidate at some point soon, and you move on that way. That's where I'm at personally, but yeah, those guys are fascinating for sure. And then what are you doing with Travis Hunter, man? Like, are you just holding? I feel like you just have to hold, right? You took him with the second pick last year in your rookie draft or whatever it was, like, who knows? Who knows? Here's the Travis Hunter, like, tribes. Last year in redraft, it was, if you don't pick him, you're a woose because, you know, because like, he could be this, he could be a yacht. Not even a boat, right? We've never seen anybody like this. If you play an IDP league, you still got to be happy in those kind of formats. In dynasty, you can't act that way. You can't just say like, oh, I'll just forget about it. He is what it is. You're investing in a player that you hope scores fantasy points for your team at the White Receiver position. And then here's the thing. Are you going to be able to say, I am starting this guy every week as a flex? Apart from leagues where you start three White receivers in one or two flex, like, I don't see a route where you can get there unless one of these other White receivers is gone. So I think you just hold because people are going to give you not what he could be worth. - Penies. And so I'm just waiting for something to change here in the room. - Yeah. - I think the myersigning was what shocked me the most because at the time it felt like a short-term fix. And then when they gave me the extension, I'm like, oh my gosh, like, how is this room sorting out considering what they traded to get Hunter, what they have in Thomas, and whether or not they're moving forward. Do you think Parker Washington is on this team in 2027? - John Shipley does a great job covering the team. - He is great. He put out of just a, I think it was like a predictions column. And it was like, I wouldn't be surprised if Parker Washington got an extension with this team. So if that's what he is potentially thinking, then I will agree. - All right, whether Brian Thomas or Trader is Trader or not, okay, we can speculate on that. Is he a player that will be more valuable to you in 2027 than he is right now? - I think so. - I think so too. And to me, that says he's worth a buy. - I agree. I mean, you just, you don't do what he does in rookie, if you're not good at football, you can't just look into that. So, and there was the wrist injury, remember Liam Cohen kind of like let that slip at like week four or five last year. And then there was maybe some off the field stuff. Like, I'm just gonna zoom out and say, this is the first time I'm a water seeer who was ultra productive as a rookie. Again, year two, it was a disaster. Nobody can complain about that or dispute that, but that just, you wanna ebb and flow with this stuff, right? It's like, if everybody thinks this is how it's always gonna be, I'm probably gonna fade that. If people are not always thinking this is the worst it's gonna be and it's never gonna be better, I'd fade that. So yeah, depending on the trade, or what it costs to get Brian Thomas, I would do that. We talked about that entering this rookie class. It's like, you get to the 107106, like that type of range. It's like, I don't know. Brian Thomas is pretty good. Like, are we that excited about Denzel Boston or whoever it was, Kenyne Cedeak? It's like, I'd probably just take Brian Thomas. - Yeah, and just to give you one more context before we close, does Lad McConkey have the same stench that Brian Thomas Jr. has on him in Dynasty? - I don't think quite as big. - But in terms of expectation of what he did as a rookie, which Lad also finishes a top 12 wide receiver, and then is drop in fantasy points per game. It's very similar. The Thomas was even more, but Lad's also in a place now where there are multiple names and a different scheme, and they're probably gonna be running more to tight ends. Like, there's variables there. Chargers, imagine that. A team I wanted to bring up the chargers. I almost brought them up, but like, we just need to think about that with Thomas, what he did as a rookie. It's, here's the list. Guys, it finishes the top five fantasy wide receiver as rookie since 2014. A little Beckham Jr., which was a magical rookie season. If you've forgotten 2014, Jamar Chase, Pukkunakua, Brian Thomas Jr. That's the crew. That's a good list to be on. Yeah, and he's part of that group. So that's gonna do it for this episode of the Dynasty Podcast. Make sure you check out everything we have in the Ultimate Draft Kit, and we'll see you again next week, release it on Monday. To be there, Hidikata. We'll see you then. Goodbye. (upbeat music) Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footmuller's Dynasty Podcast. If you wanna take your Dynasty skills to the next level, Check out the Fantasy Footballers.com