Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft + Trade Downs - Dynasty Fantasy Football
73m 42s
In this episode of the Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast, hosts Kyle Worgononi, Matthew Betts, and Jason Moore analyze the aftermath of the NFL Draft for dynasty fantasy football leagues. They open by lamenting the draft's overall weakness, noting that after the first 10-11 players, talent drops off sharply. Betts explains that second-round picks historically have a 40% hit rate, while third-rounders are nearly worthless at 10%, and this year the gap between rounds is even smaller. They advise managers to trade back in the second round to accumulate extra dart throws or to trade current picks for future 2027 selections, which project to be deeper.
The conversation shifts to veteran winners from the draft. Jason reveals he traded the 1.12 pick for Josh Downs, a move that received mixed reactions online. Downs benefits from the Colts trading away Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell, leaving him as the primary possession receiver with a potential 80-90% snap share. At just 24 years old, Downs has averaged seven targets per game over his career and could lead the Colts in targets. Betts counters with Mark Andrews, who gains from the Ravens losing Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, positioning him for a resurgence with Lamar Jackson. The hosts stress that in this shallow draft class, acquiring proven veterans like Downs or Andrews is often smarter than gambling on unproven rookies. They conclude by previewing a mock draft of later rounds, encouraging listeners to trust their instincts rather than consensus rankings.
[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Betts in a Baller. [music] Welcome in! It's Wednesday, April 29th here. Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast. I'm your host Kyle Worgononi, and I'm joined by Matthew Betts and Jason Moore. What's up, fellas? How was everyone's NFL draft experience? Well, I'm a Cardinals fan, so it wasn't great, but I'm more than a Cardinals fan. I am a Fantasy football fanatic and analyst, and so it also wasn't great. My draft week was as sucky as the draft. How was your guys? Well, I was a huge MacKyle I'm a fan before the NFL draft. I've now kind of settled into this acceptance phase of the A.J. Brown saga, where of course I've loved him for years and it's my team and all that stuff. I saw you take him over Tate. It's funny, so in our Dino Junior, you were whatever that is, pick three or something. Pick three. I went and I looked this morning, I was like, "Oh, you took MacKyle over Tate." Wow, and then I go, "Oh, yeah, he's an eels fan." Of course he took. That was the tiebreaker. I don't blame you for that. I don't blame someone, look, don't draft your hometown hero or your favorite guy over someone much better. But I mean, there's debate between those three. If you want a tie break with, look, I want a root for this guy. That's good. That's fine and dandy. Although we can backfire, Mark. It sure could. Yeah, no, the draft is going on right now. I've been wheeling and dealing during the draft. Me and Falcon. Had another trade. Dude, I haven't made any attention because I don't have any picks. I think I've checked the 307, which in this draft is the equivalent of like the 12, 12. I don't care. That's fair. We will get to talk about some of those picks that we have done in our dynasty draft that on this episode we'll walk through a couple rounds. And there might be people out there like, "Why don't you guys go three rounds? Why don't you go four rounds? Why don't you go five? Because in my league, this is what we do." Jason brought this up before the show. There really is not a huge divide. You saw that in the real life NFL draft. And then now you're seeing it in rookie drafts where once you get to about the, I don't know, even the 112. I was debating the 112 with somebody. And I was like, am I taking a third round wide receiver at 112? Where last year, that was the Matthew Golden Luther burden spot. So it is definitely a very big downgrade. I mean, genuinely, you've got like 11 players. You can argue 10 players that are should, you know, that are worth like drafting. They have the capital, have the town, have the opportunity and then it gets dicey. So yeah, when you're, if you're in the middle of the second round, usually, usually, I value second rounders and third rounders drastically different. I look at a second rounder as you've got like a 40% hit rate. You've got almost a 50/50 chance of getting a player that matters for fantasy in the second round. And the third round, I view, as absolute utter garbage worthless, you've got a 10% chance. I mean, it, it feels so great when you land that third rounder, when you draft Pukin, letting them go on draft and he becomes maybe the number one starter. It's awesome and it happens. Third rounders matter. But statistically, historically, I'm sure everyone that listens here has a much higher hit rate than 10% because you're smart. But the third round hits at about 10% rate. It's garbage. This year, that might be just the second and third round like they're, they're all garbage. So I don't know, maybe that's an argument to go deeper this year. I also think on the same line of thinking, if you're someone that's holding right now, if you haven't had your rookie draft yet, and you're holding the 204, something like that, and you can move back four or five spots and pick up an extra couple of shots on goal here and just pick up an extra third or something. I think this is the class to do that because once you get to 201 to 305, I mean, sure, you might have your guy that you like or whatever. But from a tier based standpoint, like these guys are all pretty much the same. So I think moving back in the second round and trying to pick up an extra, extra dart throw, it makes sense to me. There is, I have always been a proponent of trading future picks for this year's picks. You get a free year. It is mathematically wise. I have never been a fan of the trading this year's pick for future picks until this year. Once you're out of that first round, if you've got a mid second, someone loves the player there, and they want to trade up because they're a huge Chris Belfand. And they think that's he's going to get over it is, you know, they really believe you can flip him to a 2027. I think I would do it because the draft next year projects to be much deeper. I mean, I don't, this is just the 30,000 foot view. I don't know it, you know, in depth, but for a couple of years, people have said the 2027 drafts going to be big. And usually when you hear those things years out, they, they tend to be true. We heard that this was going to be a week draft. We heard this was a bad draft for running backs. Both of those were true. So yeah, you can wheel and deal and you can look at 27. It'll be interesting to see at this is a sick game. But like of the 36 picks, let's say you're doing three rounds in your rookie draft. How many of those are still going to be on an NFL roster in like two years? Because like there will be guys on this list that were like drafting, you know, round five running backs in the second round of a rookie draft. That's what we're doing here. And two years from now, we're like, ah, that guy's like irrelevant on this team. That guy like does not matter. They drafted his replace him a year later. So we're going to walk through some of those, give you some range of outcomes for these players where you could take them. If you want to swing away, this is the year to swing away. Like don't don't say like I'm at the 201 and I have to go with this ranking because this is what the consensus says about this player. If anything, the NFL taught us this year, they don't give too far. It's about consensus. Yeah. If you have conviction on a player once you get to that second round, just take whoever you like the best. I do think that that's the case. Now, if you don't know these players intimately, you know, you're you're a casual dynasty fan and that's why you listen. That's you love playing and but you don't have the time in your life to scout these guys. We do go deep. We do put a lot of effort into our rankings. You know, my ranking is sorted very purposefully. One player versus the other. I will take this guy over to that guy every single time. And so, you know, our rankings now post draft our live on the fans footballers.com. If you have the UDK plus or if you're an ultimate foot clan member, those come with all the dynasty information. So if you've already got it, check it out. Use our rankings. They are good. And if you don't have it, get it. You should get it. You should just get it. Foot clan that. Treat yourself. Treat yourself. There's a new mock draft there. There's risers and followers. And then another part that I think post draft we forget about is that we update the opportunity for every single team. All 32 teams. And from that, you can kind of see how there's certain players that maybe don't have the sexiest name or appeal and dynasty. Yet they've come through as winners. And so that's our quick question before we get into our mock draft is to quickly give us a veteran winner from the draft. And then maybe what that could mean for 2026 and beyond for a lot of players that are veterans. It's like, okay, here's this one year window where you are assured of this opportunity. And sometimes that's more than enough. So Jason, the name of the euro down. Mine is not that. Bet's traded for him. Oh, I see that. Dad, come here today. In Dono, Jr. Dude, I traded the 112 for this player, which I like to talk about. Oh my gosh, what a great trade. I was going to bring you. I did not know this. I really did not know this. I was going to bring up today. And I was going to use the 201. So one picked different as my example. That if I was in this year's draft and I had an early second and I could flip it for this guy would do it. You did that genuinely not even a joke. I was planning in both of our main leagues to go try to do this after the show and you already did it. You did it. And the best part is I posted it on Twitter. I'll let you share about the player in a second, which we haven't even mentioned yet. Never mentioned his name. Half of the replies, which I think this is so fascinating. We're like, you idiot. I would never trade it first for this guy. Yes. You got fleeced and the other half were like, dude, an amazing trade for you. You won this trade. And I love that about Dynasty trading is that there is no right or wrong. It is. I mean, there will be a perception of the pick and how you feel. So you get to get to the point. But we're so we're so fast to be like, you won. You won the trade. But here's a thing. But again, we haven't said the player. But here is the tree when we want to never will. When you are talking about a trade for candidate or someone that is a by-low candidate, you have, if you put a tweet out and everyone thinks you won, that you didn't, you know what I mean? Like you didn't actually by the whole point is that not everyone sees this, which is why you target these players. I think the biggest winner veteran.
is Josh Downs especially for Dynasty. Josh Downs, first and foremost, he's a really good football player. He just is. Last year, I'm going to peel back the curtain. I don't think we've ever said this on the show. I don't even know if you two guys know this or not. And you could say, oh, yeah, we talked about that on the show. I don't know. For a long period of time last year, Mike, the fantasy hitman, right, had Josh Downs as his my guy. He was going to be one of his three my guys. I helped talk him out of it because I really believe that Michael Pittman was like the the the mouse to feed with Tyler Warren. Michael Pittman being there. Warren Adnight Mitchell. Like it got scary to me. Now it was a late round draft pick. But the reason Mike loved Downs and Andy was right there with him was because he's really good at playing wide receiver in the National Football League. I know he is undersized five nine one 71. So it's not ideal. But he's good. And how good is he? He is good enough that the Colts chose to send away Adnight Mitchell, then send away Michael Pittman, Jr. Their star wide receiver who they pay like a star wide receiver. And then not draft any important wide receivers, not go after wide receivers of free agency, say they're good to come out. Baller came out and said they're good because of Josh Downs. He's literally saying, Josh, you guys forget how good Josh Downs is. Our wide receiver core is fine because we have Josh Downs. Josh Downs is now not a slot wide receiver only look at the depth. He is on the field every play and he wasn't. This is a player that's going from like, if you could tell me, Jaden Reed got to play in two wide receiver sets. I would say he's going to be great for fans football. He's not going to get to play in two wide receiver sets. Gonna be Matthew Golden and Christian Watson on the outside. But for this team, Josh Downs is going to be playing a lot of snaps. He's going to go from whatever he's, you know, been in the 50s to 70s to, he's going to be out there 80 and 90% of the snaps. He's going to be the number one target. You have so many targets gone. He has at least the chance to be the number one target. Him and Tyler Warren to me, Alec Pierce, great wide receiver, but he's not a target hog. Like the possession receiver is Josh Downs. He's very good for dynasty purposes. He's 24 years old. This is a young player who feels like a left over veteran schmuck. And I expect him to be a wide receiver too in fantasy. So this isn't necessarily like, oh, he's going to go out there and be jamar chase. Don't hear what I'm not saying. I'm saying that in the second round of your fantasy drafts this year and rookie drafts, you're drafting guys that you hope could maybe develop into a wide receiver too that might work in NFL. And then if they work in the NFL, that they could work well enough to be relevant for fantasy. I am 100% confidence confident that Josh Downs will be important for fantasy this year. Like he is the primary possession wide receiver for the Colts. If Daniel Jones is back, this was a great offense last year. It's just a lot of things to like and the value is solo. I look at him in underdog. I look at him in redraft ADP and he is dead. He is like a 10th round pick, just worthless. And that's not like I haven't got to the Colts yet. I'm doing the UDK. I'm statin out every team. I am excited to see when I get there. Like he has to have a good target market share. Just the depth chart says so his talent says so. The transactions of the Colts say Josh Downs is important to the Colts. He's he's 24 years old and just to give you a stat like through almost 50 career games. He's averaging seven targets per game. And it's really rare to find that from a wider receiver that's taken in round three and that continues to do it. Like we've seen like Deontay Johnson, Cooper Cup, Terry McClellan. Those are the best of the best and he's there with that group. So we don't know what he is. This is the final year of his contract, but it wouldn't shock us if he leads his team in targets. Him or Tyler Warren this year and then gets an extension at some point. So bets like I mean, the one 12, which is sad because I have the two or one in that league. Jason was trying to throw it out there. I could have offered the two or one. Yeah, you should have, dude. But like, well, offer it now. That's has it. Hey, maybe, maybe, you know, and I think it's really important to put names at that pick. We always talk about that, which we'll do our mock here, but just for everybody that. Peak behind the curtain in the updated new mock in the dynasty pass. Like at the one 12, it was Chris Bell and at the two of one, it was, it was gurmy. It was Jeremy Bernard. And it's like, I don't, I don't even know if those guys are good. A and B, like in most years, those guys are like the two oh nine type of pick that we make in rookie draft. Like the one 12 this year is not a real first round pick for being honest. So that's why I made the deal when I look at Jeremy, but it's everything Jason said. Jeremy Bernard, even Denzel Boston, Antonio Williams, Dejon Stribling, Chris Bell, Ted Hurst. Like those are my next six players. One of those guys could absolutely turn out to be better than Josh down. It's like, you know, hopefully, you know, the teams are drafting them to be. They don't project to be fantasy stars. You hope that they can be as good as Josh down. So it's already been in Josh down. So yeah, that's, it makes sense to me. For sure. Let's go. Let's go with the real guy. If we're to talk better and better. We love. I can't agree with us. I'm an I can't even know who yours is. Oh, it's Mark Andrews. Oh, man. And look. This is obviously very specific to this season because the, I think there are signs of decline. Obviously from the guy we used to draft, you know, three years ago and like the fourth round of redraf leagues. Like this is not the same player. But when you look at what happened with Baltimore this off season, obviously, I say, luckily, it's gone. And I think kind of sneakily important. Charlie Kohler is gone. And Baltimore was a team that was rumored to be in on Cedique. They passed on him at 14th overall. They only draft one titan. It's in the fourth round Matthew Hibner out of SMU. Look, I know Mark Andrews is not a sexy name. But if you're looking for a, a contending team to get a player that probably is going to be second on the team in targets. Behind Z flowers with an innovative new playclub. This is not the hardball Ravens. Like I think Mark Andrews could surprise some people this year and have one of those like, you know, 700 to 800 yards. Not wow you there. But come away with 12 touchdowns and be the Titan five on the year. You know, something like that. No, you're not winning your lead because of Mark Andrews. I just think based off of what could have happened in the draft coming out of this, especially after signing a three year extension previously, he's a big winner from NFL draft. Do you think you could trade that same exact pick, the one 12 for Mark Andrews? Oh my gosh. I think you could. I have Mark Andrews. If anyone wants to come get him for the one 12, I mean, I, what do you do it for the one 12, Jason? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. This year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, here's the thing. I, I don't disagree with what Betsa saying. I think Mark Andrews is a huge winner. I think in redraft leagues, he's going to be higher than expected so far while I've stated him out. I have done the Baltimore Ravens. And I've got him with, you know, eight and a half touchdowns. This year it looks likely that he'll be around that number. He could easily get to 10 touchdowns. What's going to be his target share? His target share right now. I've got him at 18 and a half percent. Okay. He'll be a very relevant asset in fantasy. But in dynasty leagues, people are tied in hungry and needy. But you don't have much time left. There are signs of decline. So if you, I think, you know, look, if you're at the one 12, you probably or possibly have that because you won the championship, right? You're, you're drafting 12 because you won. Now let it be very clear. That is not why Bets has the one 12. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. However, for a lot of people that's, you know, they've got a championship window type of team. They're going to be picking low and maybe in that window, they need a little extra help at tight end. I don't, I don't think it's a universal. I wouldn't do it or I would do it for my team. If I could trade Andrews for a high draft pick, I still would. I would capitalize on it. But that doesn't mean I disagree. Obviously after the draft, he's a huge winner. They need to use him now. He's going to be on the field more now with likely gone, you know, consolidation of the tight end targets, which has always worked well between Lamar and Andrews. And I will say this while we look at Andrews, like he's dead to rights. You know, he, oh man, he's, his career is over. You look at what, you know, he's not that old for a tight end for a tight end at 30 years. He's not 32. He's 30. You look at what George Kiddles been able to do. You look at what Travis Kelsey's been able to do. You look at what Zach Erts, not the super athletic. Like when you're a really good player and they signed a contract extension, he's good. He's 30 years old. He's not, is prime, but he's not toast anymore. So yeah, I think there is a place where he needs to be on a competing team that needs a tight end and you move him around in dynasty leagues. He is definitely a winner. But also if I could capitalize him on my team, I would. But I have how pit. So, you know, I'm locked at the position. Don't worry about me, fellas. You're, yeah, because your team and I believe in that league, Dino juniors, pretty irrelevant over the last couple of years. I don't remember anything about your first of all super not irrelevant. I win lots of championships, but also that's not the league I have marked. Interest that's Dino. That's the main Dino league I've got. Interest. I've got Kelsey in Dino junior. I'm going to throw out a veteran winner that is not a sexy name, but the Vikings. They had five pre draft visits with the running back position. Historically speaking, that usually means you're going to take a running back early. It's 80% in the top four rounds. That's what it's been. They don't take a running back.
until round six, they took a full back in round five, but round six was to Montclave Horn. So Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason in Dynasty probably didn't feel like assets that felt very valuable to your team. But with Kyler, hopefully being the quarterback, they're all lined up with a ton of injuries last year. And yet they were still 11th and adjusted yards before contact. I feel like both of those players could have value, which is crazy for Aaron Jones at this stage of his career that he kind of keeps enduring and keeps giving you life. So those are just two guys that I think I just assumed they were going to take somebody and you could just move on and it's going to be irrelevant. But you probably have one more year and I have a dinosaur team. I'm like, I would kill. I've Aaron Jones, my RB two on a team like that. Yeah, that's a good call out. This is the type of player. Again, if you're on a championship contending team and you've got a low second, which is basically crap. Now you might be able to get him for that because the guy who has him, if he's not a contender, just wants anything for him, expiring asset. But he'll make an impact and redraft and and Kathy Bates, also the rookie there. I don't know if you this is I heard this this morning from Julia Papworth. She was she she calls clayborn Kathy Bates. And I was like, what? Why are you calling him Kathy Bates? And then she sends me the movie poster from Dolores Clayborn, the movie starring Kathy Bates. And that's all she can see. So so yes, now now that's the rookie's nickname. 100% there's no way that when we when we bring this up, you cannot restrain yourself from bringing that up on the main show. No, that's because I think my comp was LaCroix James Cook. That that was my like comp for him, but LaCroix. Kathy Bates for someone who is very, very different than Kathy Bates is it's pretty great. Let's hit quick break and we'll be right back. All right, we're going to go two rounds for this rookie mock. Let's go. The fantasy footballers mock draft. The order for this one quarterback draft is going to be Jason, myself, and then Bates, and then we'll just keep repeating the super flex. Gals and bros out there. I don't think that much will change. I really don't like we brought this up on a couple different podcasts. If you want to take Mendoza as high as 102, that's fine. I think we're more in the 105 range. 106. So you can adjust that in the ultimate draft kit if you want to. The real question for I mean when when you're looking at a super flex league, yeah, okay, some of the mobile quarterbacks that are backups. Maybe they sneak in your third or fourth round, but for the most part, it's pretty much just where would you take tie and where would you I mean, you know, like Carson back. Okay, maybe you throw them in the third, but true hour. Yeah, I mean, totally. So it's not a deep draft. So really the super flex and single quarterback bros were not that different. I really feel like the primary change is simply and only you know, where do you where do you take tie and that's going to very drastically. Some people want to take him right around Mendoza. They think the future as a as a ram with make vei with weapons, a year to sit. The future will be very, very bright, but obviously you don't get them for a year. He's not a mobile quarterback as far as like he is mobile capable. That doesn't mean that he is going to accumulate rushing arts for fantasy. He won't not not not in a significant fashion. So he's interesting. I would say in this draft, maybe you do pump him up more to like the back of the first early second in a super flex. Yeah, I've done I've done two draft so far in different leagues that are already through the first round in one super flex league. He went the eighth pick. The other he went in the 12th. So somewhere in the back half of the first, I think is where else that'll yeah, and I don't think you can use situations like pinnocks or Jordan love to say, well, here's what happened with these guys who were clearly sitting for a while. It's just like every situation's different. This one's unique with McVeigh somebody that we trust. And then, you know, do you guys see the news coming out in the last day or so? Like they had secret meetings. Yeah, I did see that which actually we like that we do we do we do like that. You know, on the main show on Tuesday, I talked about how I think there's big disagreement like between my viewpoint and Andy's viewpoint on whether it was a good pick. There's like a right and wrong thing. Yeah, like a right and wrong and and I actually don't think it was a incorrect pick, but we'll talk about that on the main show on Thursday. Because overall, the Rams have given us enough years to say there are smart organizations. Yeah, I mean, that is a huge part of it. A huge part of it. So Jason's at the 101. Oh, I am. I'll take care of my love. But I want to hear you can give the fan reaction part, but like in year one, I'm assuming you've done the Cardinals. I have done the judges. I have done the Cardinals. Yes. That must be painful to do for the running back position. Yeah, I mean, it is really I I body James Conner. I think that he is, you know, he was a captain of the Cardinals. This is a very, very important locker room guy. It'll be told all they they gave him money and the offseason, but really they restructured his deal to be able to keep him around. This is a new coaching staff that didn't work with him that brought in Jeremiah love that brought in Tyler Alger. So I think it's pretty much the beginning of the end for James Conner, a very valuable asset to the team that I don't expect to get a lot of work. I feel so bad for Tyler Alger, the man. I mean, you drafted into the NFL. You think about this. You you spent your entire life to be coming NFL running back. You're drafted into the NFL. You get the opportunity. You rush for a thousand yards as a rookie. You're like, I can do something. I am here. I belong. I am a quality NFL running back. And then the next year they draft a top 10 be Jean Robbins, a generational guy and you're a backup. What do you do as a backup? Oh, I don't know. Just score a ton of touchdowns. Frustrate everybody because the team really wants to use it because you're really good, but it's okay. Your time has come. Free agent marketplace. You're going to get a big deal and you're going to be the guy for the Cardinals. You're going to go prove you can be a lead back. What do they do? Take a top five running back and make you a backup. It's like it just go, just go retire, Alger. Anyways, to give you a redraft outlook on Jeremiah Love, I have not stated enough. You know, I'm through the first five alphabetically teams. What people are like, oh, yeah, you sure you said Arizona first. I do because they alphabetically come first. He is behind Chase Brown. If that gives you like an idea because Chase Brown is one of those questionable. How how is he going to do? I think everybody right now views like in a redraftly. They go, I know what I think of Chase Brown and where he should go. He's good. You know, back in R.B. One, maybe 13ish. Right. Exactly. And so so far, I have Chase Brown scoring more fancy points of Jeremiah Love in his rookie season. How many how many total opportunities? So, if literally looking at targets and rush attempts, because that's something bets and I were debating recently on DFS and betting pod because of like man, year one, how much workload? I've got them for a modestly nice 269 total opportunities, which is just for context. That's really good. That's not great for the third overall pick. No, it's and it's not great for where he's going to go in your redraft leagues. I do think it's fine for where he goes in dynasty. You know, this is just like Ashen Gentie was a was a good pick and had a disappointing rookie season. He was still very good. You know, finishes their RB 12, but disappointing. Bright days ahead. So young and and I believe Jeremiah Love is 20 right now. Like I don't think he's turned 21. I'll let me double check that. But yeah, I mean, you've got time. You've got time with love. So love would be the number one pick in all formats. Everyone's league and you'll be happy with them, but just don't expect to have a superstar his rookie year. Yeah, I think it's so easy to make this comp because tell you how jures has been on both teams, but I really think Abijon Robinson rookie season is kind of what we're in for here where it's like you're left wanting more like why don't they give him more work? Why don't they do this and then all of a sudden year two and beyond he's unbelievable for fantasy. So I agree with you that like in redraft, it might be a little disappointing. I think in dynasty, no matter what, he's the first pair. Jeremiah Love is 20 years old. He doesn't turn 20 years old till May 31st. He's got another, you know, two months or so or I guess one full month now of being 20. Right before that UDK release. He turns right. That's right. He's just old enough. He turns just only one eagerly celebrates. He's going to crack the champagne as the UDK releases. Congratulations, Jeremiah Love. Or as I read it, Jeremiah. I hate how he spells his name. I hate it. I hate these names. I hate these names that are just spelled different with the same name. Derek. I hate the name Derek. You spell it four ways. There's some good detrains. D train Derek's out there. Gurmeets. Gurmees. Fine. If you spell it that ridiculous, I know how to spell your name. I hate when it's just slightly different. Like Derek such an easy name. D-E-R-E-K-D-E-R-R-I-C-K. He's like, "Ahhhh." Hate it. Poor Gurme. I know. I bet you think you got made fun of growing up. Only by the teachers who are reading the name. Yes. He was the coolest kid in school. The teachers just bullied him over and over again. All right, I'm at 102 and I did have this decision in our Dino Junior League between these three wide receivers. And I. kind of been in the same spot the entire part of the process and I'm not really changing now. It's going to be Jordan Tyson drafted by the Saints at eighth overall. This is a I was tempted by carnalt hate and yet my prior said who earns the targets and what translates from college to the pros who had the youngest breakout age of anybody in this class and really one of the youngest that we've seen in the last decade is Jordan Tyson. So Olawe is a bonus there. I think some people see that ago. Oh man, they're going to compete for targets. What if just the offense is awesome and what if Kellan Moore, who is selfishly one of my favorite play callers, just hyper targets this guy. So Tyson is my one of two. I mean, the number two target is like as far as quality as far as talent has been Joanne Johnson. Like that is not that is not what you want for your NFL team. No offense, Joanne or or Valey or whoever, you know, is there trying to be the wide receiver too. There is a there is an enormous Grand Canyon size amount of targets available for Jordan Tyson. He's my number one as well. I he was my number one pre draft. I think his landing spot with a good looking young quarterback in place and it's not like Olawe who I still think Olawe is the one for the team, especially rookie year version of Jordan Tyson. Look, I have a lobby in Dynasty. It is a terrifying prospect at any minute. His career can be over with the concussions any minute. And if that happens all of a sudden Jordan Tyson is left alone. And so yeah, Tyson would be my number one. I will say this since I assume a guy lemon is about to go to bats. I did flip the entire process. I was Jordan Tyson, McCoy lemon, carnell tape, but carnell take going number four to cam Ward and being so invested going to a team where I don't view any competition for being the number one. I don't think Ridley or one Dale or they're not they're not Chris Olawe level at this point of Calvin Ridley. So I think Tate is the one for the Titans year one. So that flipped him for me over McCoy, but that's you're on the clock. Yeah, I mean, honestly, I think either guy is fine here. And I think they're kind of like I still view them in the same tier personally. I know other people think that the draft capital difference between Tate and McCoy lemon matter so much. Yeah, I could see that. No, no. So I can tell you statistically, historically, data wise is zero difference in those two picks. In fact, sometimes the lower drafted first round, not the end of the first, but like the middle of the first, sometimes those end up better spots simply because you go to better teams, which makes sense. Yeah, no, for sure. But yeah, I'm sticking to my pre NFL draft evaluation process here. And I think McCoy lemon has the better fantasy football outlook, which is what we've been talking about. So I'm going to take him here. But as I've said many times, I would do it the NFL did if I was drafting a wider seer that I needed to be my true one. It would be carnal Tate, but I think McCoy lemon has a better fantasy football skill set in that look. And there's been so many people make, you know, so many comparisons to like the Jalen Hurts can't throw with the middle of the fuel. He's allergic to the middle of the fuel. That's like all these things. It's just noisy. It's that's just noise right now. Like McCoy lemon is a good football player. You can play it in the slot and on the perimeter. And you look at the depth chart. Like are we really worried about Hollywood Brown? Don't TV and Wicks. Like I'm fading all of that kind of fud that's out there personally. And I think McCoy lemon will be a very good pro. I love McCoy lemon. And the Jalen Hurts can't throw the middle is nonsense. I think that that is to say that a say that a quarterback, a Super Bowl winning, you know, MVP running caliber quarterback can't throw the middle of field is just lazy. Things can change. You remember with C. Yes. Do you remember with Cam Newton? That's true. It was like he cannot check down the ball. He cannot throw to the running back. He will not throw the running back. Well, you know what he does when he has CMC? He checks down to the running back a whole lot because you've got a player there. Like, oh, it is if you think if Oman Ross ain't Brown, not that McCoy lemon is Oman Rob, but if Oman Rob was traded to the Eagles, we'd be like, ah, no, Jalen Hurts can't find Oman Raw. Yes, of course he can. Yeah. Things do not stay static in the NFL. And especially when you have a play collar that might be a mystery to a lot of people, but Sean Manian was a hot name in the process. Yeah. I'm excited. I'm very excited for the team. I am skeptical, but hopeful. Yeah. I'm excited for the team's trajectory. I don't know fantasy if they're going to cannibalize. I would say I would say I'm pessimistic. Like you can be hopeful and pessimistic. And I think that's where I am. I want it to work because I want Sean Manian to be a thing. I think it's hard that he will. It's a difficult thing to just come in and be a great OC. He's got the opportunity to most first time OC's don't necessarily just always work, but I love Sean Manian. He should have been the starting quarterback for the Rams for many years. Um, joke. But anyways, I'm on the clock. I will obviously take Carl Tate. What I'm taking it to we've talked about him enough. He is my Felix model has him as the number one prospect in the draft ahead of Jordan Tyson. Um, I like Shuck better than I like Cam Ward. That's really what it comes down to for me. But you could argue as I did earlier that the target competition is much less in Tennessee than it is in New Orleans. I just think the pie, the passing volume, the pace of play, all of that is more in New Orleans. That's the tie breaker for me. Love those three guys. Now we're at the pick where you go. Okay. Let's use our brain. I had to make this pick in our diner, junior because I mean pulled off a great trade to somehow get the 102 and 105. And before the draft, it was Casey. Like I was just like, that's who I'm going to take the talent evaluation says, I like this player no matter what. Now, Giderian price is in the conversation to say, if I need running backs, am I willing to take him here? Now normally speaking the way that I would build in dynasty, it's just saying, I'm just going to punt the running back position down the road until Jesus comes back like, I just don't care. And I showed bats my running back room and he goes, I don't even think that's a running back room. I have four running backs on this roster. That's how bad it is. But I was curious. And so the way that I did my homework for it is I checked the Felix model because you know, that's that's that's a little, that's everything. And how it elevated Giderian price to at least at a spot saying, man, before he was like the 109 110 for me, can I really take him at the 105? And it was really a toss up between him and conception. The only other player I considered is do I want one of the tightens here? And I think it's too early for me. So I took Giderian price out of I think a first round running back on a team that I really like. And I actually, I think I liked him the most out of the three of us. So I actually already had like a soft spot that I felt fine. I don't feel great picking a running back over a wider seabird that I personally love. But my team was desperate. And I also think he he's 105106 to me. Yeah, price. Yeah, price will be there. This was a prospect I did not love. I went back and liked him a little bit more the second time around when you know, he was obviously getting all the buzz of might be a first round pick. And I see the physical traits. I hate the reception profile, which basically is meaning nothing. He didn't do any receiving work in college. Doesn't mean he can't and then I fell, but you want to see it. But I mean, Charms is probably going to start on the pup. You spend a first rounder. You want to run the ball. You're good offense. You're literally the Super Bowl champion team really hard to bypass that. I would it was very difficult when I was making my rankings and I did the same thing. I I put you there in price at five. Jardy. I think it's fair. The sea ox talked about trying to trade back and they couldn't and they knew if they didn't take him at 32. He was not going to get to 64. So they took their guy and I do worry like we're going to not artificially, but like, I don't know what the right word for this is, but like inflate the first round draft. Sure. It is going to have because it's kind of true, but also kind of not true. You know what I mean? But regardless, the opportunity is there. I don't think people realize this act is a carbonate situation. Like in best ball leagues, the carbonate still goes in like the 10th round or something like that where it's like, he's not just going to start on the pup. Like I truthfully think this year for him will be not irrelevant for fantasy, but hard to be relevant until like late November for fantasies. The way I would put it based off his timeline. He'll just be there. He'll just be there to crush Jardy and the playoffs. That's correct. But the opportunity is certainly there, obviously. So I don't mind this this pick. I was going to take basically whoever Kyle didn't. So I will take Casey Concepcion. I know that the quarterback play this year is a question mark in Baltimore or in excuse me and Cleveland and all those things, but just betting on the talent with the first round wide receiver. I love him. I hope he crushes it. And I'm really, I love what Cleveland did the last two years. So they're building something there and they're building it the right way. And I love taking two shots of the wide receiver position with the early capital. So I think he can morph into more than just being a gadgety slot guy. I think he can eventually start outside for them. So Jason's very happy. It seems I'm extremely happy. I am very unhappy. I am very, very unhappy because a lot of.
people want to take a tight end there over a conception, which I don't blame them. Either one, if you want to take a tight end over a conception, do it. I would not. I, I think conception can end up in a very Z-flowers role. You know, he's, he's kind of a Z-flowers comp. Uh, he's got that little bit of the jitterbug quality wide receiver, not a big, you know, hulking six to two, 10 type of guy. And you've got Monkin, uh, who's going to be able to manufacture touches for him. And so I, I like conception. Now comes to the tight ends that I'm so upset because I've said from the beginning, from day one, I like stowers more than Cedique. I want to put stowers over Cedique. Think he's a better receiving fantasy football prospect. Not necessarily an NFL, uh, you know, well, tight end if, if blocking matters. Uh, and then you look at the situation, obviously Cedique picked with the 16th pick in the first round versus the 54th pick, uh, that falls in the second round. You look at the jets need targets behind Garrett Wilson. They need someone to throw the ball to, but they also grabbed Oh, Mark, we were junior. Oh, you know, the stowers. Oh, the, the, the you're going to lose AJ Brown. And so stowers can come in. Dallas, God, it's going to be on his last leg. And then the future is bright for stowers. Oh, but you brought him a guy lemon. There's a lot of similarities here. I can't justify my priors over coming what the data says, uh, what Felix says, what the draft capital says. I'll take Cedique. I would rather if I could like if, if someone was here and, um, you know, if, if I'm on the clock and I got to take one of these tight ends and someone really wants to deke, I would love to just like flip a pick, grab some extra draft capital and take stowers. But then that's not what's happening here. I'll take Cedique. All right. So Jason feels terrible with his tight end pick. I'm going to take Eli Stowers because he is the tight end that earns targets. And I, I think it's, is going to be a tough year one for him to carve out something that's super meaningful. And then I saw a lot of hate on the landing spot. Just a ton, just like with McCyell, and you don't, you got a quarterback. Doesn't throw to the middle of the field. Then you've got stowers now competing with McCyell, I live in on the field. And so people are like, I hate this landing spot. They just only stand there. That's the only spot on the top. That's all they do is they just wanted to the middle of the field where they know JL and her can't throw the ball and they stand there. That's what their entire career is going to be. Silliness, um, however, that's you watched the Eagles closer. Um, I don't, hopefully you're not, you're, you're not swayed by fandom. But opinion analysis was like, is there a spot for stowers? Is it a bad landing spot? Is it a good landing spot? What, what do you think from, from your educated analyst perspective? Well, I think it's an archetype that, you know, I think back to the Eagles years of old, like there was always kind of like the move tight end and the in line guy. Like years ago, it was like Brent, Silicon, Zachards and that sort of thing. Um, I could see that type of situation playing out right away in the first season, but we've talked about this just him as a prospect. Like he needs time to kind of develop into being an NFL tight end. And so I agree with Kyle's point where it's like, in year one, I don't think he's going to command much of the offense personally, but you think about the opportunity that they have, you think about the ancillary pieces behind lemon and Devon to Smith. There's not really much going on here. So like I do think it could be a slow first season, but obviously they've got a plan for him. And you just kind of bet on the upside case here. So this is a player that I don't think we'll do a ton this first year, but I do think there's a place where it could work out, you know, in Philly. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what your boy, Sean Manion does when it comes to 12 personnel and how he fits in because it seems like, okay, well, it's going to be wicks on the outside. Okay, now what are you doing with lemon? Holly was just running wind sprints. It'll be interesting to see how they fit everybody in the way that they manufactured touches for Dallas. Goddard last year was so freaking frustrating to me as just a football fan because Dallas Goddard does nothing with the ball in his hands. Everything I feel like they would give him 10 targets and I don't have the data in front of me. I'm sure it wasn't this bad, but feel like there were games where it was like he had 10 targets and ended with like 40 yards. And he caught nine of them or some, you know, it was just insane inefficiency. And I am hopeful that, you know, maybe, maybe that could be a situation where they manufacture touches for instead of Goddard get stowers the ball where he can break tackles. He can run away from guys. He can't get in space, which aren't necessarily across the field. They're still going to be more, you know, in the flats, but I also looked back at, I mean, it's hard to tell because it is jailing. He's a rookie season. That was the only year he played with Zachards. But Zachards did have a pretty bad year that year. So, you know, once he started his pace was not not great. He would have been on pace for 672 yards of four touchdowns with a rookie jailing hurts hard to factor that in. I think it's so incredibly inefficient running the ball inside the red zone last year. I mean, say, Juan, what had one touchdown side to 10. And then so Goddard ended up being their kind of red zone weapon, which he's not going to be able to repeat that year of a year. So stowers, you're going to have to play the long game, but a lot of these guys, I mean, you're just, you don't know what they're going to be like. Even this guy, you're about to pick bets. Yeah, I don't know what Omar Cooper Jr is going to be quite frankly, but at the ninth pick, I'll take him. Obviously, they come back into the first round to select him after Cedic. You know, we've talked about him before like to me, this is not a first round NFL profile historically of what we've seen. So I'm not necessarily like putting all my eggs in the first round draft capital bucket here with Omar Cooper Jr. But obviously they've got a plan for him. And there is an opportunity for a wide receiver to step up beside Garrett Wilson. I really don't think Gina Smith call me crazy. He's going to support all three of these guys in fantasy this season. But when you just think about their team building perspective, like clearly the jets are just planning to, hey, let's put weapons on this team. Let's drop a rookie quarterback in here next year and see what happens. Funny. They do have really good weapons. I mean, you're telling me an offense with Brie Saul, Garrett Wilson, Eli Stowers, Omar Cooper Jr. Like I didn't like Omar Cooper Jr that much. I didn't dislike Omar Cooper. It's weird. Like last year, I disliked Matthew Golden and I kind of comp Omar Cooper to Matthew Golden this year from me from like a perspective of, I don't think he's as good as the NFL thinks. But I do like him a lot more than Matthew Golden. That being said, it's it's a really tough to be like, okay, well, so who's the target pecking order is coming from Gina Smith. It doesn't look great. It's a worse offense than what the Packers were when they inherited Matthew Golden last year. I really don't want to be at this point in the draft. And now is where you literally get to the spot. The rest of the picks are the guys we talked about where I would rather have Josh down. And you could make an argument about Omar Cooper Jr. I would probably still take the first round draft capital of Omar Cooper Jr. over Josh down. But I mean, I would I'd be happier with probably those down. Anyways, after this, you got Jeremy Denzel and Tony Williams, Dejon Strublin, Chris Bell, Ted Hers, Elijah Strublin. Like it's all crap. Shoot. And we're in the first round. So give me Fernando Mendoza. I'm going to take the 101 in the NFL draft. I know he's got a long leash. I think he's really good. I do not believe he will be a fantasy football sensation because in order to be a fantasy football sensation with his archetype, you have to become Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. Now he could ironically develop into a Kirk cousins. His now mentor who everybody is comfortable forever. And Kirk cousins was great for fantasy for many years. He didn't win people championships, but he was an important asset every year for a stretch. That's the hope. Mendoza is a quality quarterback. I like him. I'll take him. Yeah. I like having a quality QB2 on your roster. I think we forget that it can matter not just for bi weeks, but like over time, you're hoping that this person becomes more than just, oh, he's a QB2. Like he could have a season where he just in her births and ends up being a top five type guy with the right situation. And obviously the offense is on the ascension. They just need a wide receivers. They don't have those. So the broadcasters signing former Vanderbilt quarterback, Diego Pavia to a three year deal. Boom. Pavia behind the next Lamar. Jack. Actually, it makes a lot of sense to me. It makes a lot of sense. I mean, you don't, but you've got to do a dual threat back up quarterback. He's a heizman candidate runner up a lot of, I mean, he's a backup. He's this Lamar Jackson's team, but Pavia should have been drafted. Don't you think? I mean, I don't know. He's he's tiny. His film's not that great. His production is fantastic. The Ravens will only ever have one backup. And it's Tyler Huntley. He's a lot. He's the only only guy allowed. It's Crowboiler. Tyler Huntley to you, sir. 111. I'm taking Denzel Boston. He would be the next wide receiver. Could he be better than Casey Concepcion in terms of fantasy production? Maybe. But the draft capital is fine. I think we all thought he was going to go to the first round. But 111.
It's fine. Oh man, I hate this pick. Here's is the worst spot. All right. I talked down on this player. I feel like a bunch, but Second round wide receiver. I'll take Gurmy. I Don't love it. I'm being honest given the quarterback room and or Aaron Rogers and DK McEff a Michael pitman there, but There's kind of some sneaky outs and pitman's contract if things don't work out So I think there's an opportunity that down the road this could develop so I will take Gurmy out this pick Okay, feel it we can finish this show in about 45 more seconds if we just wrap it around take all these nonsense guys that nobody wants already Already right at the beginning of the second All right, let's take a break and then we will wrap it around boys Just to recap the first round it went Jeremiah Love Jordan Tyson McEy lemon carnal Tate Jardyans Jardarian price at 105 Casey Concepcion Kenyon Citi Keelah Stowers Omar Cooper Junior Fernando Mendoza Denzel Boston and Jeremy Gurmy Bernard at 112 Jason you're on the clock at the 201 I'm on the clock at the 201 This is where I try to trade for a veteran In fantasy football yeah every pick just try to trade for Josh Downs or or someone I mean Mark when I look at all of these players every single one I would put the vast majority of my chips on they don't become a fantasy Star not that these guys can't have a game But like you know the guys that are gonna be on waiver wires that you pick up and you play and they have relevance and they have a career And then if I'll that's how I feel about most of these guys um You took you took Gurmy I did I'm gonna take Antonio Williams Antonio Williams to me I know Betz you liked him as a prospect He also currently looks like he's got one of the best opportunities. You got a good quarterback which a Daniels You really need a number two behind Terry McClure and and right now Antonio Williams has the opportunity to slot in now There's a lot of rumors for an I you might be coming to town and then that hurts his pecking order the same way that Gurmy is the Three for his team And we do I just want to say we do know his name is not Gurmy Um for those that are new to the show but you spell it like that it gets said like that okay consequences actions Um, yeah, I'll take Antonio Williams You know good draft capital good enough draft capital good enough talent and a great opportunity For the Washington commanders on a good offense Um, you could really make an argument that maybe he should go ahead of Of Gurmy um simply because of the pecking order, but I am kind of factoring in the brand and I you Yeah, drama. I mean what a soap opera did you hear the latest crazy? Did you see the latest which is Teams can't get a hold of them Like right now like teams are trying to get a hold of brand and I you they can't get a hold of them Like what the vibes cannot be worse. This guy is a psycho He signs this monstrous deal Has ever it's all roses and then just implodes his life Weird I hate thinking that he was like an entire offseason For like thinking about the show over the years like we had the left bell off season uh-huh We there is an entire offseason with brain. I you because pretty much every single day part of the news Yeah, he took that from me. I want it back Uh, yeah, Antonio Williams might have the cleanest landing spot as of any You know day two wide receiver for opportunity. I'm gonna take Chris Bell It feels like a I'm swinging for the fences. Mm-hmm at this pick Somebody that could have been a first round NFL draft pick before tearing his ACL He was the second wide receiver taken by the dolphins Caleb Douglas they I guess took before him and most of the NFL's like I did not have this guy on my board But Chris Bell projects to be the better long-term solution All right, I'm gonna take Jonah Coleman at the 203 obviously things feel crowded right now with Harvey Jackie Dobbins and now Coleman But just kind of betting on the guy that we all liked and seeing what shakes out in an offense that we love for a scheme That has worth a beloved I think the most likely outcome here for Coleman is it's very frustrating for all three guys because they're all gonna play They're all gonna have a role you're probably see Tyler Bade on like you know third and twenty type of stuff But just like Probably bring them all in probably bring them all in But like if injuries or something happened in front of him. Yeah, I think he's got the talent to if when jk Dobbins is there man He's got the talent to capitalize. So I'm gonna take him out the 203 He's Vaughan on this roster too. I feel like they do not use it. They can't find him though Um, I I feel like jk Dobbins It's really had the short end of the stick. What a good guy who has worked so hard In so many years with so many massive injuries that are out of his control I mean, that happens such a good player. He is he said like Really unfair to work back from all those injuries only to get another one to then I mean he's still doing it You work back. He got a contract. You're gonna play he's gonna get injured This is the craziest part of this draft and I'm actually Enjoying this process because I don't know who you guys are gonna take like My rankings I look and the next 10 guys. I don't care who I would take out of the tent You know, I've got them in a very specific order for very specific reasons I would take them. I will take them in that order But if you take them in a different order, I'd be like yeah, I get it. I totally get it For me, I like Jonah Coleman, but I cannot justify taking A day three round four running back over someone who was Borderline a first round wide receiver. Do I love it? No But Dejean's struggling a couple picks into the second round because the Niners were able to trade back They said if they couldn't trade back they would have taken them in the first Insanity However, there's a team where it's like okay, Mike Evans is old. They've got a good. I mean Kyle Shanahan and just he gets it done with everybody Do their day two picks work for the 49ers? No Will they work? Probably not but could they work and I mean you you also you know Joanne Jennings is gone There is a need for targets here George Kittles health and the draft capitals there He also had production so Dejean's struggling I he reminds me of Terremakoran In that I remember the Terremakoran year when they drafted him it was a real shock It's like wow. I did not think that this guy was gonna go that high in the draft the team believed in him And for fantasy football that year Because we all spent time with our big boards And our draft process and we had our rankings and we hadn't really like I hadn't scouted Terremakoran before that draft much You know, I was like oh I got it. He's basically a kick-returner. Yeah, it's like at least coming in that's what you thought I was unfamiliar with him to be completely honest I'm not a college scout. I do NFL fantasy football and then after the year I go and look at who's of the combine and who's Projected in big boards and he wasn't and so because of that His ranking in startup drafts was way below Where it should have been by what the NFL did and that's how I feel with Dejean's struggling Nobody was looking at him in Dynasty circles at this point in a draft ever But the NFL did and that's what matters so I will take him here Dane Bruegler I want to say two weeks before brought up his name as hey, this is somebody that's Could be in the day to conversation like that that was the first time I knew the name from him playing in the SEC But not okay this guy might be a first-round pick and I think it's the best case scenarios you say Kyle Shanahan knows what to do with wide receivers that are thrown away Like Joanne Jennings like Kendrick Bourne and get the best out of them. You hope that he is that. Yeah It's got the opportunity in this draft. I guess that's what you want to do. I'm gonna take A day three running back which is definitely not something I would normally ever do But in this draft We're looking at guys that are like the fifth or sixth running back off the board So I'm gonna take Nick Singleton because Opportunity-wise one of the better landing spots long-term now next year they could easily take somebody on day two And it kind of erases it But Tony Pollard Taje Spears aren't gonna be on this roster next year This is a new regime and I think Singleton his injury concerns is what dropped him the most It was a broken right foot bets correct and so Opportunity-wise it's there this these are the type of picks that are shots in the dark in the second round and in this year It feels gross to take a round five running back at the 205 but that's what I'm doing Kind of interesting when I round six running back at the 206 doing all right, let's go Who is it look and this part of the draft we already talked about these guys are not gonna be in the NFL in two years Right, I mean that's that's a kyle said League winners come from ambiguous situations. I have no idea how good bill is Rashad White is making one year two million dollars on his contract What if that man is Brian Robinson and falls in the unzoned ten times this year So I will take patron Allen after Nick Singleton and say that this pick is not very good This is the perfect the guys this is the perfect example of I mean, it's not What are we gonna do here? The perfect example of the 2026 draft The pessimism is completely founded folkland if you're listening please understand like
Most of these players aren't gonna work out. You just took a sixth round running back. There are day two wide receivers that were drafted highly that you're taking over. - You do start living bets. - And but that you can't really, like I would not, that's not how my rankings are, but you can't say it's insane, and we're in the second round here. This feels like the third round in most drafts. I'm going to take a player, I really liked, had good production. This was, I think I brought him up as kind of a sleeper in one of our early episodes that I liked. He's only 21 years old, and he's going to a team that's a good offense with a good quarterback, and they just lost a Hall of Fame wide receiver. I'm gonna take Ted Hearst, the heir. The heir apparent replacement for Mike Evans. He is not Mike Evans, he cannot replace Mike Evans. It is a crowded field there with a Buka already in tow, and God went there, a couple other young guys, McMillan, I mean, they've got a loaded core, but I liked Ted Hearst. I think he's a good player, the fact that the Buka nears agree with that, and have an opportunity for him. I will, I will draft him. - Full disclosure, completely forgot about Ted Hearst, so I would have taken the two of us. - FantasyFullBullars.com, look at my rankings, they're great. - Ted Hearst at 207, Pets took a six round run. I'm gonna take a fifth round running back here, just to keep it going. I liked Emmett Johnson before the landing spot behind Kenneth Walker's not ideal, but I actually think the competition for RB2 for KC is non-existent, the rest of the roster. So he's probably just a change of pace back, but Kenneth Walker's also not very good at staying on the field. So Emmett Johnson at 208 is where I will go. - Okay, oh my goodness. I'm gonna throw a curveball here. I'm gonna take Elijah Serrat. - Ah, that's who I was gonna take. - He, technically the Ravens had Jekobli lane higher on their board based off draft capital, but I mean, there's more production with Serrat. So I'll take him, they talked a little bit after the draft about maybe kind of moving him into this big slot role. - Yeah, see. - That's exactly where I want him. - I think he could be, I think he could be really good in that role. So I will take him here at the 209. - Yeah, that's a, I think that's a really good pick. That would have been my pick. And that's surprising because that was one of my movements. Like putting him above Jekobli lane. Jekobli lane was drafted 80th, and Elijah Serrat was drafted 115th same team. But I like Elijah Serrat better. I loved, I mean, this always sounds stupid. I hate when I say things like this and this will be on the record forever. It will turn out to be wrong. Obviously the NFL thought it was wrong. I liked Serrat better than Omar Cooper Jr. When I watched him, like that's the player that I would have wanted. I thought he was a better just well-rounded wide receiver, good route runner, I saw separation. Other people said they didn't, whatever. I liked him a lot. I think that's a good pick. I am on the clock now. I'm gonna take a player who was rumored at times to be maybe a first round pick. And then I was like, nah, you're not gonna be a first round pick. He was not a first round pick, but he got a good landing spot. He's an archetype. I don't like infanity because it usually doesn't work. But when it works, you're talking double-digit touchdowns. Give me Malachi Fields, wide receiver for the Giants now. You got, you know, not a lot of competition there for targets after Malik neighbors. They need someone else. Malachi Fields big, bodied, you know, touchdown threat type of guy. You know, he was someone that I was very much betting against going into the draft because he was like a, I don't know what his breakout age was, but when he really dominated was like his fifth year in college. Like this last year, he was just like dominating little boys and he was this giant guy. You know, my notes were giant man with a late breakout, basically catching sideline balls over little kids. A lot of George Pickens, I can see that with some of his incredible catches, but Call Me Skeptical, his tricks will work in the NFL. That's how I feel about him, but at this point in the draft, you're talking about someone who should have the opportunity to be the number two for Jackson Dart. And if it works, it's good for fantasy. The type of player you're not a possession guy, but you're a touchdown guy. Mike, just for context in our rookie draft, Mike took him at the 202. So there's this range right here where Jason just took Malachi Fields at the 210 and Mike's like, hey, I would be willing to take him anywhere in between here. So that's, that's kind of what you're dealing with in some of these players. I know Betts, it's Betts' favorite player in this draft Malachi Fields. He's going to be a future all pro. Were you anti where you anti fields? I mean, I'm pretty much anti all these guys. I'm being honest. He's going to do a really good job being a diet version of Darius Slayton. Yeah. I think he's actually like a nice compliment to what neighbors is, which is everything. Yes. And he can be the sacrificial X, which is what I think he'll be. Yeah. I mean, all of these guys, it'll be interesting. I thought about Chris Brazil here who hopefully is not just that player for the Panthers. But since all these guys are in the same tier, let's just, let's just have some fun. Let's just take a player exciting, lightning quick. Could do anything. A great pick of the third round for the Atlanta Falcon. You're got your, your Falcon. The next time the next Tyree kill, right? He's at least something fun. Summer saying. I look, I don't, I don't mind. Taking a pick when you, when you're looking at most of these guys, you are looking at people who probably won't work out, but when it works out, you say, okay, what does it look like? What is the path for some of these guys? And what you're saying is if it works out, they are maybe a, a flex option. Like that's the, that is the, I hit. I hit this pick. That means, hey, I'm going to look, they're going to be on my team and I'm going to be looking at the matchup and say, I'm going to play this guy this week. I'll bench up next week. And that is the hit. Zachariah Branch is a guy that we're going to bet against. He was a, you know, a screen warrior. He just manufactured so much of his, you know, touches and production and college from the screen game and those are usually hollow. Those don't work out. But if it works, if Zachariah Branch hits the NFL and does there what he did in college, you aren't talking about a fantasy star, like someone that really, like his speed, his speed is, it, you know, you, you only want to win a tire kill because their tire kill is one of one. But as far as the engine starting so quick, that like immediate burst, it's not the top speed, the 40 time or whatever. It's just the like, start and stop is crazy fast with branch. I like this tape, but I, you know, I don't mind at this point. Swing for the fence. Swing for homeruns. I'm with you. Like this is the type I always bet against. And I'm throwing aside the homerism is a new regime. The only other white receivers in the roster, Dotson and Zacchaeus will, won't be on the roster next year. So if this regime is making a pick, could he end up being the number two behind Drake London and morph into a one-day Robinson type flex play? Cool. I'm down with that. I get it. I'm, I'm totally into it. Let's close this out with a completely unknown. What are they doing, but trust the team? I'll take Max Claire. They have like 19 tight ends on that roster. So this is obviously a pick that you're not making and getting much if any contribution this year, most likely, but just kind of forward thinking that got a plane for the sky. I liked him going back to his Purdue tape, but two 12 look it wrong. He was stuck around pick. McVeigh likes his tight ends. He knows his tight ends well. So that's his, that's is a sucker for Max Claire. He's talking about Max Claire, the whole process. He loved them last year. He's going to be good. He went to a team that is just going to eat itself at the tight end position. There's you wait Jason. And you walk away from the season with 200 yards and two touchdowns. Yeah. Come back. Like that's your right. He could walk away with 406 touchdowns and you'll never be able to play him because you have no idea. I'm not drafting for this year. Yeah. This is dynasty. I'm drafting for future 2026. I'm drafting this guy for three years down the road. That's right. That's how I play this game. So would you rather have him or Terrence Ferguson in a startup? I like Terrence Ferguson better. Yeah. Exactly. So you're drafting a backup site in for the future. Got it. You know, Betz is. I told you what you get to the one 12 all these guys are out of the NFL. It's crazy. So we just finished our ballers, dynasty mock draft that will be on the website for everyone to see on the, our writing staff. And we, we did that in addition to this podcast. We went three rounds there. If you want to check that out a little deeper one of the guys that dropped to me, think it was like the 307 or 308. And I just couldn't believe it. And the same thing is happening here is Kaelen Black, a day to running back. I, you know, it's like, I know we didn't like him. And we did, he wasn't, he wasn't at the combine. He runs funny. He's obviously behind Christian McCaffrey. But at the same time, he's a day to running back. For a good offense with a fragile older veteran in front of him. It feels like, you know, we're taking six rounders, fifth rounders, fourth rounders ahead of them. Is that, is that the right thing to do because we just know it's not going to work out? Or it's weird because we have this new bias about Shanahan where it's like, he's really good. And yet, uh, John Lynch and him have these weird draft board conversations. Can you like, imagine how good the Ford and I should have.
been these last five years and they've already been one of the best teams in the NFC. I said if they actually use their drive up on any. So many times if you got Shanahan a good GM, he'd be winning super balls. If Kaelin Black went to like the Jaguars on day two, would we be like, oh my gosh, that that changes things because that's a landing spot. We're like, or the Viking. Let's say you went to the Vikings, the team that we thought we were going to draft a rune back and he went in the third round. Where would he go in rookie drafts? Yeah, you would go, I think you would go higher. The fact that he's behind Christian McCaffrey and the fact that we've seen this day two running back pick for the San Francisco 49ers now over and over and over and over and over and over and over. All of them happens all the time. But at the same time, we saw the, we saw the Patrick Mahomes Kansas Chief's wide receiver drafted. It doesn't work out whether it's Xavier Worthy or it's Skymore. Or you know, they took all these guys and then it was like, oh, what rushy rice did? So just because some don't doesn't mean none can. And I'm going to follow the draft capital there, the situation and especially when you're in such a crap shot area where you're just spreading out darts and throwing them out. There's enough to throw there. I do remember and it was so crazy. Mike and I were in the throngs. We had just finished scouting all of our running backs. Like we went, you know, 20 deep or whatever. We scouted everybody that was at the combine. I've got my Felix models. I have guys being scored by my Felix model that I haven't watched deep names that I don't know. And then we start looking at Kyle's spreadsheet of top 30 visits. And we're looking at all the names and where they're going. Okay, Jonah Coleman's here. And we keep seeing this black, black, black, black, black, black, every team bringing in this, this guy named black at running back for a top 30 visit. And Mike and I are like, who the heck is that guy? Who is black? I didn't even know who it was. It wasn't in my list. It wasn't in my gigantic list. He went as an even the most known running back from his own college team in this draft. I mean, it was unbelievable. But but I will say this, I bring that up to say that it is not just 49ers. He was brought out for a top 30 visit by so many teams that there's got to be something there. Even though he runs, he runs like he's got poop in his pants, man. I mean, I don't understand he's wearing a diaper or something he run is disgusting running style. That being said, a lot of teams brought him out for top 30 visits. He went on day two. It's got a fragile veteran in front of him. I think he's being undervalued in drafts because he might go through three rounds undrafted while these really, I mean, keep in mind before the NFL draft pushed all these running backs day three, we didn't really like them. We did not think these were great prospects. You know, the Mike Washingtons and you know, we were like, they're not that great. So I don't know day two. I'll go NFL draft capital. Yeah. Make sure you check out that mock truck like Jason said a lot of round three guys guys and Jason's rankings, Andy's rankings, Mike's ranking that you can look through and sort. And it's okay to say, Hey, I don't have this figured out because I don't think the NFL totally knows what to do with some of these guys. We'll be back next week. Make sure you go to Utica plus calm. Check out those rankings. See you next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy footballers Dynasty podcast. If you want to take your Dynasty skills to the next level, check out the fantasy footballers.com.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The hosts discuss the 2025 NFL Draft's impact on dynasty fantasy football, noting it's a weak class with only about 10-11 players worth early picks.
They emphasize that second-round rookie picks have a ~40% hit rate, while third-rounders are only ~10%, making this year's later rounds particularly risky.
Jason Moore traded the 1.12 pick for veteran wide receiver Josh Downs in their dynasty league, sparking debate about its value.
Josh Downs is highlighted as a major veteran winner
Mark Andrews is also a winner after the Ravens lost Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, positioning him for increased targets and touchdowns.
The hosts recommend trading back in the second round or trading 2025 picks for future 2027 picks due to the draft's shallowness.
They plan to walk through a mock draft of later rounds, advising listeners to trust their own convictions over consensus rankings.
Summary:
In this episode of the Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast, hosts Kyle Worgononi, Matthew Betts, and Jason Moore analyze the aftermath of the NFL Draft for dynasty fantasy football leagues. They open by lamenting the draft's overall weakness, noting that after the first 10-11 players, talent drops off sharply. Betts explains that second-round picks historically have a 40% hit rate, while third-rounders are nearly worthless at 10%, and this year the gap between rounds is even smaller. They advise managers to trade back in the second round to accumulate extra dart throws or to trade current picks for future 2027 selections, which project to be deeper.
The conversation shifts to veteran winners from the draft. Jason reveals he traded the 1.12 pick for Josh Downs, a move that received mixed reactions online. Downs benefits from the Colts trading away Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell, leaving him as the primary possession receiver with a potential 80-90% snap share. At just 24 years old, Downs has averaged seven targets per game over his career and could lead the Colts in targets. Betts counters with Mark Andrews, who gains from the Ravens losing Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, positioning him for a resurgence with Lamar Jackson. The hosts stress that in this shallow draft class, acquiring proven veterans like Downs or Andrews is often smarter than gambling on unproven rookies. They conclude by previewing a mock draft of later rounds, encouraging listeners to trust their instincts rather than consensus rankings.
FAQs
The class is considered weak, with only about 10-11 players worth drafting. After the first round, the value drops significantly, making second and third-round picks largely interchangeable.
The 2027 draft class is projected to be much deeper, so moving back or trading for future picks can be beneficial. Once you're out of the first round, the players available are similar in value, making it a good year to accumulate future assets.
Josh Downs is a veteran winner because the Colts traded away Michael Pittman Jr. and Adonai Mitchell, leaving Downs as the primary possession receiver. He's expected to see a significant increase in snaps and targets, making him a potential fantasy WR2.
Jason traded the 1.12 pick for Josh Downs. He made this move because the players available at that pick, like Chris Bell or Jeremy Bernard, are unproven and unlikely to be as good as Downs, who is already a proven NFL receiver.
Mark Andrews is a winner because the Ravens lost Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, leaving Andrews as the clear top tight end. With an innovative new offense, he could see increased targets and touchdowns, making him a valuable asset for contending teams.
It depends on your team's situation. If you're a contender needing a tight end, Andrews is a good target. However, if you own him, trading him for a high pick could be smart, as he's 30 and showing signs of decline, but his value is currently high.
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