Dynasty Decisions + Is the 2027 Class Too Hyped? - Dynasty Fantasy Football
62m 23s
The hosts open by celebrating the last day of school and summer plans, then dive into a mailbag question about the 2027 rookie class. They note that early mock drafts project nine quarterbacks in the top 32, but warn that such hype is often premature, as players like Nussmeier and Klubnik returned to school, and injuries or poor play can alter the class. They emphasize that while the top of the class is strong—especially with quarterbacks like Arch Manning and Dante Moore—the middle and back of the first round may disappoint. Scramble rates are discussed as a key fantasy metric, with LaNorris Sellers and Sam Leavitt standing out, while Dante Moore’s low scramble rate raises concerns about his fantasy ceiling. For wide receivers, Jeremiah Smith is praised as a generational talent, though he needs route refinement, and Ryan Williams is flagged for declining production and target-earning issues. The hosts advise dynasty managers to hold 2027 picks, as their value will increase as the NFL draft approaches, but caution against overpaying for mid-round picks. They also mention tight end Jamari Johnson as a sleeper. Overall, they temper expectations for the class, suggesting it may be top-heavy rather than deep.
[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footmoller's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Betts in the Baller. [music] Welcome in! It's Wednesday, May 20th, the last day of school, Betts. Is it really? For your kids? Yeah! Last day of school. Summer's out. Or summer's out. School's out for the summer. Wow, dude. Baseball, summer, the southern heat, pool parties, Georgia, beaches. I mean, the list goes on on Sweet Tea. What do we do down here in South Kyle? I actually am not a Sweet Tea guy, which, you know, if you're from the South, maybe that's, like, psychro-illigious. But there is something about the last day of school that still feels special as a parent right now. So my kids get off the bus and we do it every year. We just destroy them with water balloons. We attack them. And that ends up being like the last, like, you know, takes at least an hour. But like that, that magical feeling of, I finished my class. I'm leaving. I'm never going to see you suckers until August. You know, that's the, that's the feeling. And it's funny because, like, I remember as a kid being like, "Man, I got all summer." And then, like, when you're on the other side of it and your parent, you're like, "Dude, this flew by." And now it's over. Um, do you guys have any big plans for the summer? I'm aware that boys have all star baseball for the next month and a half. We're going to be doing that. Go into Vegas in July. There you are. Backstreet boys, right? Backstreet boys at the sphere. So, you know, a lot of that, drafting bestball. I still doing my job though. That's, that's going to be the thing. Like, I still have to do the thing that I do and talk football. Talk and ball. I, I was, somebody had to talk ball this summer. And, you know, it's not going to be. Apparently, I'm, what, what's that? Corporate. Too good for this show. What happened to, what happened? You know, I just wish they cared. They don't. I wish they cared about the show. They don't. Um, no, in all seriousness, Andy and Mike and Jason are doing no work right now. They just chose not to be here. No, obviously UDK season is here. We are in a full force ahead of June 1st. So the guys are doing a bunch of work behind the scenes for that. They said, "Hey, Bets. Borg, could you guys hold down the fort for us today on the show?" And I was like, "You know what? I don't really love talking to just Kyle, but for you guys, I will do this. And we'll make it happen." So I'm excited, man. We got a mailbag episode today. A lot of good questions from the listeners. Yeah, one of the questions that will start us off, I think we'll contextualize a lot of what we're doing in Dynasty over the next year. It's funny when we're looking at the 2026 class, we just finished our rookie drafts. I feel like we almost got more questions about the 2027 class as people were doing their drafts. So I wanted to make sure we started off the show hot with a really hot topic, which is this one comes in off Instagram from Rye Guy 1515 because 1514 was clearly taken. And he asked a simple question, but I think it leads to a bigger conversation. Do you think the 2027 rookie class will live up to the heights? So obviously, Bets, I'm putting a gun to your head a year in advance, basically telling you, you know, tell me exactly what's going to happen. But just to give people context for where we're at, if you look at early mock drafts, you might say to yourself, who does that? Well, every single site out there the day after the NFL draft puts together a 2027 mock draft and a lot of them are wildly off. But it does give us a sentiment of where we see certain classes. And right now, if you're looking at mock draft database of the top 32 players they have, nine of them are quarterbacks. Wow. Okay. Nine. Now we know for a fact they will not be nine quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL draft or, you know, this is crazy. Last year there were six that were in the top 15 at this point. Okay. Like you're at Nuss Meyer was part of the group. Kate Clubnik drew Aller, all the boys that decided, you know what? I'm going to, I'm going to make sure that for my family's future, I'm not going to give them as much money. That's what they decided to do. It's so funny every year this happens right where first off people doing mock drafts the day after the actual NFL draft. Sick individuals. Is this like a Michael Jordan like PSA? Maybe. Get help. Yes. But we talked about this entering this past draft cycle where the quarterback hype was so real. It's like this quarterback class is going to be sick and we always say that. And then eventually then are the college season plays out, whether it's injury, poor play, a combination of those things. Some guys happen to fall off. So yes, the quarterback class is once again getting hyped. Be careful about what you believe in May the year before and college season happens. I do think there is some merit to it, right? Like, give them a talk about arch for two years now. People talked about Dante more all last year thinking he's going to come out and he went back to Oregon for another season. I do think at the top it's pretty strong quarterback, but there's going to be names that emerge from that we're not on this list. There are going to be names that fall off of a list. And then the bigger talking point I think is kind of like that wider seer, but there's some heavy hitters as well. Obviously, Jeremiah Smith is the guy people waiting for. He's kind of built as like the next jamar chase, S.C. prospect. And there's a couple other ones that are very, very good as well. So all in all, I think the top of the class is going to be very strong, especially if you're playing in superplex. I do think there's a chance that and you get to the middle and back of the first round. You might be disappointed based off how the season goes. It's impossible to predict what that looks like right now, but we do that every year, right? Where it's like, okay, this is the class circle it on the calendar. It's going to be amazing. And sometimes that just points to the top of the board. Where it's so good, the top heavy prospects are great. And then it's like, oh, maybe it's not as great as we thought. So I don't have any strong takes on that right now. Just kind of my general PSA is like oftentimes we're overhyping certain players, certain prospects way too far in advance. Yes. And just to give you some context of the top 32 players on mock draft database is early. 18 of them are offensive skill position players. So players we talk about in fantasy quarterback running backs, wider sewers and tight ends. And it's pretty heavy at the quarterback position. Like I mentioned this past year, we only had 10 offensive skill position players that were ranked here when we were got to the draft. So that's like why we've talked so much about how was a week draft class and once you get to the back of the first round, your rookie drafts. It was really, really tough. But let me just contextualize these quarterbacks because archmaning, Dante more kind of seen as those two Julian Sain of Ohio state. And then you have some other names, Darrym Mensa, who was at Duke, now transferred to Miami is an interesting name. Lenora Sellers almost came out this past year out of South Carolina. He runs the ball. We'll talk about him. Trinidad Chameless, which I'm just, you know, from old Miss, was he going to go in out? Was he going to stay in the NCAA? He's kind of snuck into the back of the first round here. I do think his name is going to drop. But I think having nine names in front of us. And I'm going to add 10 because I actually am a big fan of Sam Levit, who was at Arizona state. Now it LSU had a season cut short of injury. He's like my name that if I had to pick from this group, who's going to rise? He's the dude. I think the biggest question is, do they matter for fantasy? Because it's like, let's say we do have nine guys that are in this group. Half of them, if half of them are first rounders, that's amazing for dynasty purposes for super flex leagues that we have four or five guys like we did a couple years ago. When we got six in the first round. But then of that subset who end up being first round picks, how many of them actually run the ball to a point where actually care for fantasy? Like that's kind of the, here's the group a year out. Here's the group once we get to April. And then here's the group that actually runs. And it's smaller than you think. Who are the guys? I hate things. Who are the guys that you think? And I organize these by scramble rate, which is just here's the dropbacks. Here's the number of scramble. It's just a really telling statistics. Lenora sellers of South Carolina, 12% scramble rate would have led this entire class. I got to mention Gunner Stockton. Gunner. Gunner stocks. I can't tell you how many Georgia boys get to say that. Come on Gunner. Let's go Gunner. I had 11.6% scramble rate. I don't know if he's going to be part of this group, but I had to mention it. Sam Levitt was at 10% from Arizona state. He's interesting. Brennan Soresby. You've seen his name probably in the news all over the place. Investing and was interested in investing in a lot of really off sports that are off the mainstream. Who amongst us Kyle has not bet. I'm sorry predicted what is going to happen on the 4th of July with the hot dog eating contest. I mean, what is wrong with this country? That's what this country is built on. Tradition like that. You can't fault that. After that, we've all been there. Come on. Yeah. Who among us hasn't placed a wager on badminton in Russia? I saw a bunch of the Twitter comments on that. And it's like some of them that made me laugh were just like, oh this guy was gambling gambling. I'm not like, oh, you know, I like--
I like Duke's night or whatever it is like it's like this guy was gambling. Yeah, you know, because you're right. I didn't even know you could bet on that if I'm being honest. So Saur's B you'll be an interesting name. He'll probably drop down from this list. Arch Manning, 7% Scramble rate. That's actually the cutoff point for me where I start to see things translate to the next level. And Arch had his first big game if you went back to this past season a Ohio State where I was just like, oh no, this is a train wreck. And then slowly but steadily over the course of the season, look like the quarterback that people all thought he could be and he actually will run at the next level. I think Dante Moore is the one that like is my personal favorite prospect of the quarterback position. But I need to throw out two things. One, he's an organ quarterback. So that's great because I'm biased towards organ quarterbacks and I've always loved them. But also the comps that I've seen and then for me watching his film like his initial film from this past season, he reminds me a lot of college CJ Stroud which we both loved. And yet for fantasy, I don't know if he's going to run the way that I want to. And then also you look a couple years down the road. It's like, I think CJ Stroud can be a good NFL quarterback. Can he be a game changing fantasy quarterback? I think that ship has already sailed just because he's never going to run enough. Dante Moore's scramble rate was 4.8% this past season. So I bring up all these numbers to say, if you're holding a first round pick in 2027 drafts, especially in super flexiics, you should be excited. I do think you should temper your expectations because if you have the 108 or 109, it's probably not as strong as what people told you in my opinion. Now I'm also guessing we will have wide receivers that emerge from this group that we're not in the mix here. And yet like even at the running back position, like I still feel like, I mean, I don't feel like there's like one prospect, a mod hearty Adam Missouri was actually recently in the news. He was he was shot and hospitalized. So we're still trying to figure out who the running backs are on this class. But I'm like, once you get to 109 or people going to be disappointed, it's possible. I will just say the general opinion that is shared by just about everybody playing dynasty is that this is the class. And this is the class that's going to change things. And you know, you're going to have a bunch of these amazing prospects. I'm not saying that's wrong necessarily, but that is the sentiment. So if you have those picks, what I would say is obviously if you get through the season and if you're a contender, you need to sell those picks to make around a title, you know, do it. We're here to win. But at the same time, just understand those picks by month as we get into November, December, January and then all the way to NFL draft are only going to gain massive value because you've been told for basically two years, this is the class. And so I would just be hesitant. Not saying you can't use them trades, obviously, you can just be hesitant to to move off those picks too early because again, when you get to January, we get to the NFL playoffs and people start to turn their attention to this class and the NFL draft, the value exponentially will increase, especially on those those early picks. Yeah, one of the I can't figure out if I made a mistake or not in the ballers main dynasty league, we traded away our 2027 first this past year when we were making a run. And we got Jalen Waddle, and I believe like another another piece. And I'm looking at where our team is our team finished second to Mike versus terrible. Yep. But our 2027 pick like our team is very, very strong. We have a Pukin JSN end of sentence like I mean our team our teams awesome. And yet let's say that my pick ends up being the one of nine one 10 11 or you know, we went at all. I still feel like we made the right decision getting Jalen Waddle and then his value actually increasing going to Denver, where for a while I was kicking myself, man, I traded a 2027 pick. But if it's a back end pick, I don't feel bad, especially in a one quarterback league. Yeah, for sure. I agree with that. Okay. Last little thing I just wanted to mention because it's rare that a player as a freshman has talked about in dynasty years and advance. And you're going to hear so much Jeremiah Smith talk, but I just love watching it play football, man. Like I I feel jealous of people that have the top and pick that you even have a shot at this guy. I do want to give people like an early scouting take that I feel like he is exactly what you want as like a pound for pound wide receiver. And the best examples I can give you is like prime Andre Johnson, which is probably older for some people or Julio Jones, where it's like you were born to play this position. I would not call those guys the fastest guys in the league, though, like I would not call Jeremiah Smith. I just think for his size, he's the best. He's still needs to develop as a route runner. Like there is parts of his game where he just wins as a bully as and being bigger and faster. And I also would say in the open field, he's not the most elusive player in the entire world in its breaks. Now over time, he will become an all pro. So I'm not really worried about that. But if you turn on the field for Jeremiah Smith, you see the production, you know, the last two years, 3.44 yards per out run, just awesome over span of two seasons. But I would not say that he is like Justin Jefferson in and out of his breaks. Like there's parts of his game. He's still going to grow into. Yeah, they play differently. Those two guys, I know that we're going to move on here in a minute, but I wanted to ask you real quick what's like the early temperature on Ryan Williams? Because I feel like when people were talking about this 27 class Alabama wide receiver at the beginning, those two were kind of mentioned. I don't know if they were the same level, but they were kind of in the same breath almost. What was like, do you have these two stud wide receiver prospects? And it's been very disappointing the last year plus. Do you have any idea what's going on there? Do you have any insight? Because when we talked about that with Jeremy Bernard, it was like, well, to his credit, like, you know, there's not a lot of amazing data points in Jeremy Bernard's profile. But it's like, hey, he at least was stealing targets and usage from Ryan Williams, who has been billed as a great young potential prospect. Do you have any idea what's going on there with his fall off? So it's funny you mentioned Bernard, because we think of him as like a, I wouldn't say middling prospect, like fine, like nothing that you would say, like, I feel really, really confident about does a lot of things. Him being well, but not anything specifically that's amazing. So with Ryan Williams as a freshman was like a video game character. If you watch some of the Alabama games, like just like so fun. My brother was like, this is one of my favorite players I've ever seen in Alabama. And this past year, the production, like, I'm just give you some numbers here. 49 reception, 689 yards, four touchdowns, but they moved him into the slot a lot more. So he was at, ooh, I got the number here. 55% in the slot. So part of it was a roll change, which I think when we evaluate him a year from now, we'll say, okay, well, they moved him around the formation. He can do a little bit of everything. So I'm not so much worried about like him being a first round talent. I do not think his body can hold up long term. The same way we look at Jamison Williams, like he's a, he's a thinner Jamison Williams type that where you go like, okay, you can make big splash plays and then you can vanish at times on the field. So in terms of earning targets, that's going to be the red flag in his profile that you and your spreadsheets when you bring them up this next year, you're going to be like, Hey, Kyle, why did this guy not earn a lot of targets? And I'll say Jeremy Bernard. I'm going to say, dude, don't you remember on May 20th, we talked about this last year. Come on. Yeah. And by the way, he did add the, um, he hyphened his name. He's now Ryan Williams Coleman, which is very confusing because Cam Coleman, who was at allburn is now going to be at Texas. And so we're going to mix up that a lot. Yeah, that's definitely going to happen. So those are the kind of the top wide receivers. There's some interesting Titan names. Jamari Johnson out of Oregon was the second Titan behind Kenan Sedeek and spoiler alert. I think I liked him better. He was stealing some targets from Sedeek down the stretch. Yeah, he's, he's definitely like a name early on the process that I'm a sucker for, but like I said, Oregon players, I'm usually in. And there's people out there that are like, like college football purists that are like that is such a Mickey Mouse form of football that they play over there in Oregon. Just fun teams. Okay. They're fun to watch. They're always fun in the mix. So let's take a quick break and we'll be right back. All right. We are going to hop in the mail back, but I do want to remind people that you can visit the site, the fantasy footballers.com and click submit a question. We have this entire channel in our Slack that just has every single question that anyone's ever asked. So I could search and see, you know, bets asked something in 2016. Like, hey, you know, what do you think about Eddie Lacey? Kyle. Eddie Lacey. Dude, you, I remember the first, honestly, that he goes in. With my college buddies, we did an auction. Okay. It literally took like 12 hours. It was, you know, 25 picks, whatever. Oh my god. Took so long. But Eddie Lacey was like one of the first guys to go and I think we drafted in. It might have been 2016, 2015, something like that. And it was like him and Desbrien went for like top dollar at the top. I'll never forget that. And then within like two years, you know, he was done. People submit questions, you know, all over the place. I pulled a lot of these today from Discord. I actually have a voicemail, which if you want to send those in, 302 464 TFFB, you can send that in. I do want to give people like if you send in questions, being brief will probably help you be on the show. If you say here's this long question and and here's my entire
roster. It's very hard for that to contextualize and kind of help a wider audience. But our discord, I want to remind people is the best place to get things answered. We have Dynasty channels, Dynasty Superflex channels. All over the map, we have all those things. But I will not make you do the drop though. Male bag. Is that a cop out drop? I mean, I appreciate that. Nothing crazy, but a little cold right now. So I would have loved to not do the male bag drop. So thank you very much. I am going to start us off with a little voicemail, which we don't get to do much on the Dynasty podcast. Well, let's go for it. So, Bollers, would you trade the 111 picks straight up for Cuba Hubbard? Kind of been neat of a running back and dying if you'd love to hear your thoughts. Thanks. All right. So the question was, would you trade the 111 for Cuba Hubbard? So this year's pick, if you're a running back needy team. So we always say this on the show, put a name to the pick or a couple of names that are probably going to be around that pick. So with 111, you know, the prospects this year have not been incredible. You know, it's guys like Jeremy Bernard and maybe Denzel Boston kind of falls in that range. What if like Jeremy Bernard was on my team? That doesn't mean a thing. It doesn't mean a thing. I'm going to look at our diner junior league draft just to give you a couple names that went 111 was Mendoza, Jonah Coleman. Yeah, those are the dudes. I'm also looking at in the Dynasty pass. It was one 10 Denzel Boston 111 Omar Cooper and Chris Bell. So it's like pick your own adventure when you get to that point of the draft. So all those guys have issues. Maybe that is in consideration at 111, 112 has issues. So I don't think that you should be like afraid to trade this pick. The problem for me with Cuba is he's a very, very difficult guy to evaluate for dynasty because on one hand, they paid him a couple years ago, which is great. On the other hand, Rico Dato stole his lunch money, right? And really was a better running back for part of that. I know part of it was injury related when he came back with the calf injury and all those sort of things. But right now, I feel like he has artificial value because of the fact that Rico is gone. And he feels very to use like a redraft term, like a dead zone back, right? Where it's like, well, you obviously can reject him for the volume. He's the only guy really because we're not sure about Jonathan Brooks in his health. I feel like it's okay. I'm not like running to smash except on this trade. Does Cuba put this over the top for running back new team? Like do you think Cuba can be a difference maker as your RB two this year for me? That's kind of a tough sell given the, you know, he wasn't really this like highly touted guy and he's kind of not really been the most efficient pass catcher. So it's a team that wants to run the ball. That's good for him. It's an offense that I think is capped from a ceiling perspective most likely just because it's more difficult this year with the schedule. We're still kind of waiting for Bryce Young to take that next step. I'm not sure that he will. And so he feels like a guy to me that's kind of trappy. That said, at the 111, you're not getting a slam dunk prospect anyway. So I'm okay with it. I don't necessarily love it. I'm okay with it. I just know that if you're looking for somebody to be your RB two, it's fine. I agree with you like not putting it over the top. I'm going to read you exactly what we have in the U.D.K. for his dyno blur because it with Chuba Hubbard, we talk about him being a hold for running back needy teams. So if you if you had Chuba on your roster and you needed running back, you wouldn't be like, Oh, I need to trade this guy away. Despite his age, he failed to have a single run of 15 plus yards on the season. And he's purely a volume based play. But he's in his age 27 season and he's under contract for three more years. I think that's the hard part. When you look at this player, like he feels like a player that's aging out. He's inefficient. He doesn't hit the long ones. Who cares? But his contract says you can get two years out of this. Now, I'm not going to say three. I figure like that be a point where they cut him. And I think we're still speculating how much action Jonathan Brooks get. That's more like a fun, you know, dark throw. So I think I'm fine with this. Like I'd rather do that to help my team to give myself a shot. Then the percentage chance of my 111 pick, the guys you listed is probably 35% that they're relevant into years. Yeah, the easiest way that sometimes I think this is a silly way to think about this. But at the same time, it's helpful on June 1st when the projections from the guys are out and available to all of you, you can look who projects from our points this year. That guy is more likely to help my team. And if that is your single goal right now with his trade points points, you can also look at redraft AP, which or best ball ADP and be like, Hey, you know, obviously this is different game. We're playing different game of dynasty. But it's like Denzel Boston goes in well, like the 15th round or something like that or whatever your guy is here at the time. And Chuba right now is kind of like in them, if they're six, it's like, well, obviously we all think Chuba will score more fantasy points this year. If that is your goal with this trade to put your team over the top, I get it. He just feels like a scary investment for dynasty. But for this year, I understand, I understand where you're coming from. All right. Let me give you one more data point here because people love talking Carolina Panther stuff just all all the time. What if I told you ESPN 30 for 30 voice? What if I told you that the chiefs are spending the second most on offensive line in the entire NFL? Okay, $77 million cap hit. What if I told you that the Panthers are the most at over $100 million on the offensive line this year? Wow. It's a lot of money. It is a lot of money and they invested in picking Monroe Freeling in the first round as well. I guess it's kind of wow. When you look at how they built their team and they felt really flimsy last year getting to the playoffs, you look at like the percentage time leading their score differential. It's like, man, that's not going to hold up. I'm a sea South champs, baby. I know. It's gross division. Everyone's looking around like, Hey, you guys stink. And everyone's basically saying the same thing, thinking they can win. But I just like that they've invested in the offensive line so much. And it gives me a little bit more push to say, Hey, I think you can get another season of Chuba. I've never I never knew I would spend this much time talking about Chuba on a podcast. Must be me. All right. Moving on. This one's from Discord, which by the way, they've been doing roster reviews. If you're one of those people like, Hey, I want to know where my dynasty team is at. They do roster reviews on certain evenings and give you way more context for your decision making. This one's from him for Sam. Yes. Is Jaden Reed a buy in dynasty? Such a sucker for Jaden Reed. Me too. He's rostered him. So yeah, to have a different feeling. It sounds fun until he's actually on your team. And you have to figure out when to start him. That is terrible. But I think we can all agree he's a talented player, right? Like when he's been on the field, I'm when he gets targeted, generally speaking, good things happen. He's been highly efficient when you're looking at some of his per out numbers for efficiency. The problem has always been, well, he's not going to play into it or she resets. And in a league that is trending across the entirety of the league, every team is different. Obviously towards more of those heavier personnel looks, that could be an issue. The thing that keeps the light on for me for Jaden Reed is like, you know, we've talked for the last what three years or seven green bays like, well, you know, they love the rotation. You're going to see dogs. You're going to see wicks. You're going to see bow melt and you're going to see whoever else on the field. But when you look at the depth chart right now, obviously wicks isn't gone. He's in Philly via trade. Romeo's Obs left in a frequency. He's with New England. Who by the way, he led the team with 390 routes last year did Romeo dobs. They don't really have the depth they used to. And so is there a world that exists where the routes finally condense to Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed? I think yes. The problem is I don't know that he's on the field in two Irish he ever set. So it's a tricky proposition. But after a couple years of like hype on Jaden Reed, where everybody was so excited after the rookie season, I feel like the excitement for him has really come down to the point where I am buying if the price has come down. So I don't know what he would cost to acquire in a trade, but I'm hoping to find out. And really the bet for me is is twofold. One is I mentioned the lack of playing time, you know, competition. The other thing is basically this is a bet against Matthew Golden. Like I think the Packers will want him to work. Obviously otherwise they'll have egg on their face from spending a first round pick on him. Like they're going to give him every chance to play in those two Irish he ever sets. But there's a lot of data points from his rookie profile and this rookie see a rookie season excuse me that suggests probability is not on his side. So if Golden Flops and this is a win now team, they might just say, look, we're going to Jaden Reed and Christian Watson and that's kind of our two Irish he ever set moving forward. So I think it's a wide range of outcomes. Then there's a lot of variance here. But if the price has come down on Jaden Reed, I'm interested in finding out. Yeah, it kind of just matters what that price is and how he fits into your roster. Like I would love to have Jaden Reed as my wide receiver for. So if you play in a start three wide receiver league and you're at another flex or two wide receivers and two flex, I want him to be that fourth guy. I do not want him to be a guy that I need to count on every single week because I've lived the experience the last couple years. Do you think that you could get him for what we've been setting as the Josh Downs price, which is kind of what we talked about with Chuba, the 111 ish reigns. Could like would you rather have Josh Downs or Jaden Reed? Oh, that's tough. Man, that is so. tough. I guess I I guess I lean gin read, but I like both guys. If you want to split it by scoring in full PPR, you want to go downs and have PPR, you want to go read. That's a perfect copy. That's exactly what I wanted to do. Just so that somebody out there feels good about it. I think I could do a late first, but you might be looking up a year from now, feeling differently. But three or contract extension really matters. Christian Watson is in the final year of his deal. I know last episode, the footballers talked about him getting extension. Who knows? But 20 million guaranteed. I think Jane Reed's going to be a meaningful player for this team the next two years. So next questions from Instagram. Does playing in a basketball dynasty league make me less of a man? I like the humor, by the way. Appreciate it. No, I mean, I've never played in a basketball dynasty league. Honestly, but I like the idea of it. To me, like, there's something that's challenging in a good way where you're like, I need to make the moves that I feel conviction on. And I'm not just like, well, it doesn't work out. I got to other guys that could pop up for random 20 points on a deep bomb touchdown. You're actually making those starts to decision. So that's the way I prefer to play. But I don't a bunch of people and friends that play in basketball dynasty leagues and actually really enjoy it. So I think it's more of just a personal preference thing. Yeah, there's one that was started up by a footballer's writers a couple years ago. And I know Jason's in that league. And for him, it's kind of refreshing. Like in terms of everything we do that, I don't have to set another lineup. But I do want the feel of managing a team. So no, like I think it's a really worthy way to say I want another dynasty league that I can't manage the same way. Like we get asked all the time, hey, will you join a new dynasty league with me? And I'm like, I can barely like function based on what I'm doing right now. So adding a dynasty league feels like even more. So I think I would encourage this for people. Instead of just adding another one, basketball might be a better format. That's maybe I'll talk you into it. I'm sold. Okay. That didn't take much. No, it's it's a good format to add in there. This one is from Sammies off of Instagram is Travis H and Junior, AK Travis ET and AK now a saint, a trade for or a trade away player. He's 27 years old. He signed that four year deal. It's worth up to 48 million. But it's essentially a two year deal. I looked into the contract. He is a zero dollar dead cap in 2028. So I'm treating it as a two year window with him. But what do you think trade four trade away in dynasty? I think yes. He's like the perfect. There are certain players every at some point in their career that are a perfect match for a player or team that's contending to go get that guy and a team that should be very willing to trade that player away and maximize the return on a player's value who will likely to climb at some point in the next two years. It just happens with running backs that get to 28 29 years old. It just happens regardless of how good you are. We talked about that with Derek Henry in recent episodes where it's like at 28 and 29 people like you gotta get out. And it's not because people said he was going to be bad. It's just you want to maximize your return in the trade market. So if I'm a contender, I would love to have Travis ET and like art Travis H and whatever his name is. I'm excited about the saint's offense. They get to play in a dome. They got the uptemp who offense with Kila more. We'll echo we saw from Tyler Schruff last year offensive line could be a lot better. You know, you go on and on and on about the workhorse role that could be there for a guy who got paid in trade and see and there's still some rumblings on we don't know what avant-karmara's situation is if he's on the team if he's how much work he's getting all that sort of stuff. But the investment says he's a big piece of this offense and Travis H and and so if you're a contender I would love to have that guy. If I'm sitting and I'm like, man, you know what? Realistically, I'm like a piece or two away. I'm probably like going to finish in like fifth place or something like that. That is the worst place to be in dynasty. This is a perfect time to trade away Travis H and maximize value. Get a 27 first maybe more and start this kind of rebuild process. So I think he's a perfect trade for candidate if you're a contender and I think it's a perfect time if you're not a contender to put them on the block and see what you can get. I think personally if I feel like I'm not a contender I would wait to see his value hopefully go up from here because we've talked about the Saints from like a systemic standpoint. I think they're going to be a lot of shootouts. I think their defense isn't going to be very good and there is an opportunity where out the gate, let's say first five or six weeks into the season. He's a top 10 running back and that's when I want to shop. Like I love shopping running backs after weeks five or six before your trade deadline week 11 or 12 because everybody is desperate. Everybody's like my my running back went down or I'm really going for it this year and he kind of fits that player. This is like what Dave Montgomery was for years. Where it's like before the season this is sexy standard trade for no I don't really want him but then the productions always there the opportunities inside the red zone you're like okay I need a player like this that scores fantasy points and I will trade for him. So I think his value could see an uptick you can still market that he has this long term deal to people and his age might sound scary 27 years old. Remember he missed that first year dealing with an injury so you know you just think about some of the trade on tires like it wasn't there from him early in his career. So I don't mind it it will be interesting to see if he rebounds inside the five he had 12 carries inside the five. Turned in only two touchdowns it was the second worst success rate in the NFL but I don't think there's any other competition especially if Camara's you know not with him. Yep. Okay. Next name is from Jarrett on Instagram he says you guys haven't really mentioned Skyler Bell recently any chance he's a potential sleeper. Skyler Bell was a fourth round pick taken by the bills White or Sea Reddy University Connecticut we did talk about him before the NFL draft is like here's the name. Do they're out there I think my biggest issue is is he basically little Shakir. The bills have a type of don't they they love a little bit of an undersized guy play the slot gets low eight out targets right for the catch it's the Joe Brady scheme right like that's what all of these guys are kind of doing. So the problem with that is not just Closha here they also sent was a second round pick for DJ Moore and you know Mike has mentioned this too and I agree it's like I don't know that DJ Moore is the same player he was three or four years ago but they're not going to not play him like they just sent a second round pick for him so obviously he's going to be on the field a bunch Closha here sign a four year 53 million dollar extension not that long ago he signed through 2029 Don't Can Cade will continue to work in the short intermediate area and so will Dawson Knox who you say which one about Dawson Knox like he will play and obviously James Cook and Josh Allen with their legs at the goal line are the engine of the offense so I just have a tough time seeing outside of injury how does he work on the field more than like I don't know 30% of the routes this year like 50 is like the best case scenario again outside of injury and so for a day three guy that I think he was a fun prospect wasn't obviously a slam dunk guy by any means it's more just like he goes to a good team and you could see how it could work if he somehow works as well on the field I just don't see that scenario playing out most likely in 2026 I have a stat I can't find it right now which means I'm not doing my job but it was basically like looking at every single day three wide receiver and who is you know who's actually done something in their career and the hit rate is so depressing that you're like it's like something under 10% ever give you any type of top 36 season like that's just even one in their entire career we think of the pukas Stefan digs all these kind of dudes even like the best that you could get is like Gabe Davis like that's like the best outcome of a gave Davis career so you have like a almond raw it's it's a really really small list so for this guy to be on a team that hasn't needed wide receivers is a terrible landing spot man. I yeah it's just like I think his skill set could work within this offense it's just I think they view him as depth and nothing more yes than that for this year yeah the problem that we do in dynasty is we look at a team we see the success of certain players like Cleel Shakir great example good NFL player got a second contract for fantasy Cleel Shakir what do you think his best finishes in his career? Oh let's see just like raw finish not points for you correct wide receiver 29 it was this past season when he finished as the wide receiver 38 okay and and like Cleel Shakir is a good player right like he's good for the NFL he's fits for this team and yet for fantasy purposes been like not the most startable player outside of a full PPR league so I just I hate us in dynasty we look at this player oh they've had success with another day three guy and here's going to be the same exact success is the same thing that last year people did with brishard Smith
like, oh, look, they had success with the seventh round running back from Pichecco. Therefore, we will have success with Parshard Smith and with the Chiefs. And who knows that guy even makes the roster. So I like scholar bells, a prospect. I would love to stash them on my taxi squad, but I think that's probably where he's going to end up being. Yep, makes sense. All right. This one's from Stacey in Toronto, which means you have to say, oh, Bajor. Yeah. As a French speaker right here, she asked, would you trade Dalton, Kincaid for Christian Watson in dynasty? And she gave some context. I need some tight in help. And I feel like you've been talking about Dalton, Kincaid is kind of like a sneaky bilo recently. But I think you also like Christian Watson. So I thought was an interesting question for you. So I guess she's asking, trading Christian Watson away for Dalton, Kincaid because she needs tight in help. Is that them just any question? Yes. So they're, these guys are interesting, right? Kincaid's 26.6 years old Watson is 27. So there's no real age advantage. They both, I think are highly volatile. Their contract is not necessarily set up in a way where you want to tie this player to the team for a super, super long time. Kincaid was a former first round pick. So if they pick up the fifth, your option will have a few more years there. And then Watson is on a one year deal. So like, I'm not viewing this anything beyond 2026 for me personally. I looked at our startup rankings of the ballers have Christian Watson is 68th overall. They've got Kincaid 101st in the consensus ranks. I think the potential that Christian Watson could be one of those just like, oh, how did we not see this coming players this year is exponentially higher than Dalton Kincaid ever reaching that ceiling because one player just or one team just added DJ Moore. And has a very run heavy focus. The other team has Matthew Golden who and others some truth are out there and all those things like rookie season was terrible and his production profile was not great. So if that does not work and Jayden Reed can't work his way on the field and two Irish super sets, I do agree. Christian Watson, Mike, he's brought this up could be one of those like, how do we not see this coming? How could we not have been on this? And he has one of those amazing seasons. On the other hand, he also has a significant injury history and he's never put it together for full season before. So I think Kincaid probably is like a little bit of a safer investment. But for the ceiling outcome, I'd much prefer Christian Watson. So I don't think Donk and Kate is winning you a title. You know, he's not like a goddess and go out there and run 85% of the routes and pop up with 12 touchdowns of either tight and you needed this year. I don't see that being a possible outcome for him. So for me, I'm not necessarily doing this ceiling. I'd be looking for a different type of tight and if I need a tight and help. It's interesting because both players carry the injury label. Both players are kind of disappointing for what we thought they could be in dynasty. I think Watson, if I'm just comparing these two, does have the upside that can give you the nitro boost for your roster, where Kincaid on a per if your league only does per route stuff, crush us man. That's all you need. Change all your settings to per route, targets, route run, yards, route run. And then you'll feel much better about Donk and Kate. But man, he's still in the tight in life cycle. Does he still have room to like, Evan Ingram this thing? Like get a second contract somewhere else and be a PPR weapon. It's possible. Yeah, it's hard for me with Watson in the final year of his deal. Yeah. But that's true. Way more upside there. Let's hit quick break and we'll be right back. This next question is from Grant and Dallas. He says, Hey guys, me and my buddies are starting a dynasty league. I'm just thinking about Grant, you know, him and his boys, Grant the boys just sitting around, you know, and they're just like, dude, what should we do today? You guys want to start a dynasty league? Let's do it. He wanted some good rules, ideas, tips to get everyone engaged with specifically settings. And I do want to draw your attention. We have an entire section on the website that's called dynasty 101. We also have a new article that shows the exact settings and format of the ballers, dynasty league. So the one that's been going on for over a decade, if you just want to look through some of those simple settings, how we set up things. It's not perfect and you can change whatever you want for your league. That's fun. But you can look at that online. But I would just say for me, I have a couple of leagues where there are events on the dynasty calendar that kind of make sure that we're staying in the orbit of dynasty. So you have your rookie draft, but we also have stuff before then that we kind of get together in one of my leagues and talk through, you know, the NFL draft, like even before a rookie draft, like we just talk about draft stuff. That in itself is super fun. Then we make predictions like we have a whole thing when we get to August where the whole league makes predictions of what we think is going to happen and you get to call out people in the league and say like, Hey, by this time next year, your team is going to be like asking to trade away all your good players because you didn't make it. So like we make predictions like that. And then during the playoffs, we have a get together too. So just like having things on your calendar for dynasty that's different than redraft. I think that's a good one. I also add, if you can do your startup in person, it takes longer, obviously. But like I mentioned that league previously, we still joke about that day and talk about that day and, you know, like there's inside jokes from like that day that happened and that was like literally 10 years ago. So it is like the foundation of our league and everything. So if you can do it in person, it's a more work to get together. You know, obviously it takes more planning, but it's so much fun and it really does set the foundation for your league. So if you can do it, I recommend it. Yeah, Grant, you and your buddies. Just make sure the grants buddies are actually a part of it. This next one is from J Spiegel one off of our discord, which rookie running back is one of the most valuable backups or insurance policies for fantasy. And he started listening to some guys like Seth McGowan who went with the Colts and rounds seven, Jamari Taylor, an undrafted free agent for the Jaguars. Kaelin Black, third round and the 49ers actually had some draft capital. And then we could go through the list of like Nick Singleton and Matt Johnson, but any backup rookie runny max that you want to draw people's attention to. I mean, I really would just side with draft capital here and say like, Kaelin Black is certain to the name out of all these guys. Jamari Taylor is probably not even really going to do much of that. I picked him up. Gadgety role this year, perhaps if he's even active on game day. There is a world where Seth McGowan is the backup. It's just we don't really know right now. We all thought that J Giddens could be the guy last year as the backup and Jonathan Taylor was amazing and stayed healthy. And so we never really cared who was the backup. So these guys obviously it's Kaelin Black. I think the guys that are interesting as far as not just like who's the backup, but like who can emerge as having a real role moving forward. We talked about Jonah Coleman with the committee and what if Harvey falls off and all those things in Dobbins injury. He's an obvious one. But then the two Penn State guys are kind of in completely ambiguous situations where I don't know what depth threat looks like in week one, probably Chakuri Kroski Marit and Rashab White, both having a lead back role and a past catching role. And then maybe Ketron Owens, just the goal and back. But like there's also a world that exists where Bill Kroski kind of falls off and get him wasn't awesome last year. And maybe they give Ketron a shot down the stretch. And then for Tennessee, you know, like 20 pallets fine. But if this team is not good this year and they happen to just kind of look at themselves in November to December and say, Hey, let's just see what Singleton can do. Like I could see those guys getting on the field much more easily in my opinion than guys like Seth McGowan or Jamar Taylor. Yeah, those the Penn State guys in Tennessee for Nicholas Singleton, Washington, Ketron Owens. I think have the path that we look for. I'm saying college production and biggest backfield. I like Adam Randall. It's more of like a shot in the dark. If you think a year from now, things change or God forbid Derek Henry gets hurt. I don't think that justice Hill turns into an every down back. So that's that's kind of like what is that situation? Demon Clayborn for the Vikings is like a next year when Jones and Jordan Mason aren't on the roster. He's an interesting name. But I mean, most of these guys sadly are going to be irrelevant. Yeah. Unfortunately, next one's from Mason in California off the website. Do you think Rico Dattle will get more touches this year and as you're talking given, you know, some great advice, but I'm going to look up Jason's projections this year so I can see what he's doing. So I guess you could take the question. I'm one of two ways. So I think he will get more than he did last year or do he get more than jail in Warren? You could take this in two ways. And this is a guy who's banked 280 plus total opportunities in back to back seasons while not really being the guy to start the season, right? Which I think is a sign that like Rico is a good dependable back. I don't think he's the most explosive or most dynamic player in the world, but you can give him, you know, 17 touches in a game and feel pretty confident about your offense. So looking at what he did two years ago with Mike McCarthy, who obviously is now in Pittsburgh, when he stole that RB1 job with the Cowboys down the stretch was off.
awesome for fantasy. And then last year, of course, kind of stole that job from Chubah Hubbard. Then when Chubah came back, it kind of turned more into like a 50-50 split. But still, this is a player who's had 280 plus total opportunities in back-to-back seasons. I think we could see another one here where, you know, a lot of the playing time at Pittsburgh, fortunately, unfortunately, he's going to come down to Aaron Rodgers' Trust. That's just kind of the way it goes. But I think both Warren and Rico are dependable backs. So I think both will see the field. You can kind of typecast one guy and say, "Okay, he's more of the lead back this year. The other one might fill that kind of game-well role. If there's one of those two that is going to do that, I think Warren will assume more of that pass catching back. And I think the data will lead the team in carries is how I would project it. But there's some volatility here, for sure. If I was making a bet right now, I think most likely, Rico probably leads the back field in total touches. But I think it's an interesting conversation. And one that we're going to track, obviously, throughout training camp. This is something that I've actually, I'm looking at Jason's projections here. He has Warren with more touches. I just think that this is a different offense. Like this will be a different offense than what we saw last year with the Steelers. And Mike McCarthy has gone kind of like pass heavy, pass heavy in the past. But also that's kind of what they were at some regards. I don't think we'll see as many targets out of the back field that we saw last year because they just didn't have anybody else to throw the ball to. Rico's tough because you can't really trade for him. Like I wouldn't trade a second for Rico. And then nobody's going to take a third. So then he's kind of a no man's land. You just kind of sit around and wait unless you want to give me a first in Dino Junior for him. That's I would love to do that. I've been waiting to ask you if I could trade. What if I told you I waited so like I tried so hard to trade him off of that run left this past year. You know, like his insane like three or four years. Nobody was buying it. Nobody cared. Nobody cared about guys putting up 30 point fantasy games at all. Oh man. He burned bright. It was it was nice for my crappy team. Alan in Ohio says, would you trade Malik neighbors away for two first round picks and you get some context. It would net me the 102 this year in a high end first in 2027. So probably that's either Jordan Tyson this year or Carnotate. That's kind of the consensus at 102. And high end first that is intriguing. But I would do it. You would do it. Yeah. So I brought up some Jackson Dart concerns. Okay. Here we go. And here we go. And maybe it's me. Maybe I'm the only person out there. But last year on this podcast, I was like, man, I kind of like Jackson Darts film. I really think that this guy could be a first round pick. And that wasn't February by the way. Yeah. It was I felt like am I too high on this guy? He goes in the first round and then I go, all right, I don't know about this guy long term. And now I'm out because everybody else is in. But that's also my personality. But we're asking neighbors to come back to what he was before, which we haven't really seen him play out with Jackson Darts, a different offense, different coordinator. I think the team's going to be better too. We just need to understand that. Like they don't need him to see 15 targets a game. Could he come in that? Yes. But this is a better defense than like the Bengals where like Jamar chase has to have 15 targets for this team to survive. So I'm playing out that outcome. We've also talked about how it's going to be a slow start. You've written up his injury stuff that it's going to be slow. So if I know I could get Jordan Tyson in a high end first, I think it's fair value is what I'm bringing up. Yeah. This is definitely a fair trade. It's just I feel it's so complicated with guys like this because if he had not gotten injured last year, then this trade is probably not even considered by a lot of people, right? It's like Mike neighbors is in my opinion, I think one of the superstar and he is unbelievably talented. So it's like, do you want two shots that the guys you're getting with those picks could be middle like neighbors or do you just want league neighbors? And I think it's a very fair trade. Obviously the injury clouds things and you're going to have to take a hit this year for production wise. So it's tough. I still lean neighbors. I just think he's that talented. But I wouldn't fall on anybody for taking the first. I think it's very fair. Okay. Yoans in Norway. He says, he says how large should a dynasty roster be talking about bench spots compared to the other starters. I'm trying to convince my league mates to add more bench spots. So I've played in a couple that have been like 20 plus five taxi. I played in just 25 and I've played in 30 man plus I think three taxi. And like it sounds fun to have 30. I don't like those 30 plus because then the waiver wires it's literally irrelevant, which most honestly it is anyway. But when you have 30 12 players with 30 players and then three stash on taxi, there's nobody on the wire. So it's like what's the point? But it does feel like a lot like you're putting a lot of effort into finding out who should you stash and all these things. And the reality is like the vast majority of those guys are not going to make a difference anyway. And they're never going to hit your lineup anyway. So I kind of like having the smaller relatively speaking, like you're obviously going to have 20, 25. But the extremes of 30 plus three taxi was just like way too much for me to handle. Because you're not paying attention to the end of your bench at that point anyway. Yeah. I think our sweet spot is somewhere between 25 and 28 total players on the roster. And if you want to start 10 to, I don't know, I see people up to 12. I think that's totally fine. I think one of our main leagues, which I mentioned the article before, it's like 18 players on the bench. And there's no taxi squad. So like you could do it either way. Taxi squad is really fun. But it's kind of like just having a bigger bench. It's not an eye played in leagues where I loved it and other leagues were like I didn't really care. But I think if you have a ton of starters, it's hard for me to have a bench that's lower than 10. Yeah. For sure. Okay. All right. Let's finish with this one. This is from Nick P from the website. He says, can we get a little too early? Can't cut that guy check. I mean, is there anything better in Dynasty world than you just not being able to cut that guy. So let's go back and forth here. First name I'll give you Jalen Lane, wide receiver for the commanders. I would not cut that guy. Yet. Why is that? They're likely adding some veteran wide receiver here. But as things stand, I mean, the wide receiver too, right? Is like Antonio Williams who like, I like, but let's be real. Antonio Williams and Traylon Berks. It's not impossible. Jalen Lane can come out and get some playing time this year. So you cannot cut that guy. But if they happen to get IU or Steph digs or he just can't get on the field of her Traylon Berks again this year, I think next year you can probably cut him. But for now, I would not. Okay. Give me a name. Let's go with Tori Horton. Oh, Tori Horton, man. Do you have you seen his college production profile at Colorado State from the last year? So I mean, that depth chart in Seattle, like we know what Rashid Shaheed is. Yeah, he got some money. But like Cooper cups out of the way. There's room for this guy. And we saw the beginning of the year where he actually made an impact on this roster before getting hurt. Let's also not forget. This is a super bowl champion. So yeah, you can't cut that guy. Yeah, he got a ring. Yeah. Here's a fun name. Keandre Lambert Smith, Chargers wide receiver. Oh, man. He's two weeks last summer. This is he was. Maybe you should probably cut this guy. But tell me was the. Do you remember that two weeks stretch? Oh, I'm going to find something that Andy said about him where he was just everything. And people were like, maybe he's the guy. Yeah. No, it's over. You can got like a. This is a this is a six six tax. But here it is. Looks like we had a camp hype in in in August. And who Andy did share something. Could he be a roadblock to trade Harris? No, but he was not. He was not. All right, give me another name. All right, Jordan, the winning 10. Oh my god. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Rams legend. Jordan, winning 10. This guy belongs on a dynasty roster for a couple of reasons. We know Devon Tadam is not going to play a full season. We know he's not going to be in the league for a couple of years. Okay. Puka off the field stuff guy gets injured. You know, who knows? And who does Shamnick Vey trust to step right in to get those reps? It's Jordan, winning 10. It's not. Could not a month field two two apples on the roster. This guy is somebody that you can count on. Man, I can't get that guy. I really hope all the Rams guys stay healthy and they're they're good for fantasy because they're very fun. What are the conversations going to be like if having for bid Puka sufferers a season ending injury and they're like forced to play. Could not a month feel a lady put on the snap. So whatever guy it is because all draft cycle it was like, well, they're just they're going to get a guy at 13 right they're going to get my high limit. They're going to get Kenyans city whoever it is and then Tyson's just chill on the bench. I hope
I hope they stay healthy, but it'll be an interesting scenario to see what the conversation is like if that scenario happens. Well, what's going to happen is Shumikfei is going to like take all the 13 personnel talk and be like, you guys suck. I'm going 14 personnel. And just we took another tide in just to stick it to everybody else. They're all in the field together. All right. Last name here, Isaac Garindo. This guy, and he also adds that he's a CMC manager. Look, Shani, can I help himself with the day two back? Could it be, could it be Garindo? I wouldn't be surprised. I mean, especially if I have CMC, I'm not cutting any 49ers running back until we figure out what's going on in camp. Yeah, this guy's averaging five yards per carry in his career. Look at the speed score. Dude, it's amazing. I'm a roof. The roof. Dude, I mean, he had as many touches as me this past year in the NFL. Did he get injured? What was the, what happened? Or he just didn't play. He did not play. He technically appeared in 14 games. Did not register an opportunity. Oh, boy. I, so just to add this in at the very end, I am rostering in a league, Caleb Black and Jordan James as like the CMC insurance policies. Yeah, we're just trying to figure out which one of those. I'm just throwing darts. Yeah, exactly. And maybe Garino doesn't even make this roster. I don't know, but yeah, don't cut that guy. It's the 49ers running back. I will roster Jeff Wilson Jr. if I could. And he's not even in the NFL anymore. Oh, man, I've had so many teams with Jeff Wilson, whether it was like the Miami stop, obviously with the minors. My name is Jeff. Yeah, dude. I mean, those are the kind of players that like usually win people titles or you look back later, you're like, man, remember when I like counted on this guy to be my RB2 for a little stretch? You know, just what a time. I saw on Haskins, like I'm going to come up with a list of those later. That's going to do it for this episode of Dynasty podcast. Make sure you check out the ultimate draft kit, ultimate draft kit, dot com for all of our rankings. And we will see you next week. Goodbye. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. If you want to take your Dynasty skills to the next level, check out the fantasyfootballers.com
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast hosts discuss the start of summer and personal plans, including baseball and a Backstreet Boys concert in Las Vegas.
A listener question asks if the 2027 rookie class will live up to expectations, prompting analysis of early mock drafts and quarterback hype.
The 2027 class is projected to have many quarterbacks (nine in the top 32), but the hosts caution that such hype often fades after the college season.
Key quarterback prospects include Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Sam Leavitt, with scramble rates highlighted as a fantasy-relevant metric.
Jeremiah Smith is touted as a top wide receiver prospect, but he needs route-running development; Ryan Williams has disappointed due to role changes and target-earning concerns.
The hosts advise holding 2027 first-round picks as their value will rise closer to the NFL draft, but warn that mid-to-late first-round picks may underdeliver.
Tight end prospects like Jamari Johnson are mentioned as emerging names to watch.
Summary:
The hosts open by celebrating the last day of school and summer plans, then dive into a mailbag question about the 2027 rookie class. They note that early mock drafts project nine quarterbacks in the top 32, but warn that such hype is often premature, as players like Nussmeier and Klubnik returned to school, and injuries or poor play can alter the class. They emphasize that while the top of the class is strong—especially with quarterbacks like Arch Manning and Dante Moore—the middle and back of the first round may disappoint.
Scramble rates are discussed as a key fantasy metric, with LaNorris Sellers and Sam Leavitt standing out, while Dante Moore’s low scramble rate raises concerns about his fantasy ceiling. For wide receivers, Jeremiah Smith is praised as a generational talent, though he needs route refinement, and Ryan Williams is flagged for declining production and target-earning issues. The hosts advise dynasty managers to hold 2027 picks, as their value will increase as the NFL draft approaches, but caution against overpaying for mid-round picks.
They also mention tight end Jamari Johnson as a sleeper. Overall, they temper expectations for the class, suggesting it may be top-heavy rather than deep.
FAQs
The 2027 class is highly hyped, especially at quarterback with nine QBs in early top-32 mock drafts, but the sentiment is that the top is strong while the middle and back of the first round may disappoint. It's advised to temper expectations and not overhype prospects too far in advance.
If you're a contender, selling those picks to win a title is fine, but otherwise hold them because their value will increase dramatically by November through the NFL draft. The hype around the class will boost pick value exponentially as the season progresses.
Key QBs include Arch Manning, Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers, and Sam Leavitt, but fantasy relevance depends on rushing ability. Scramble rates vary, with Sellers at 12% and Moore at 4.8%, so not all will translate to fantasy production.
Jeremiah Smith is seen as a top wide receiver prospect, compared to players like Andre Johnson or Julio Jones, with great size and production, but he still needs to develop as a route runner and isn't the most elusive in the open field. He's expected to become an All-Pro over time.
Ryan Williams saw a role change, playing in the slot 55% of the time, leading to fewer targets, but he remains a first-round talent. The main concern is his thin body type, similar to Jamison Williams, which may not hold up long-term and could cause inconsistency in earning targets.
The running back position in the 2027 class is unclear, with no standout prospects yet, and a recent injury to Ahmad Hardy adds uncertainty. Managers should be cautious about expecting strong RB options in the middle of the first round.
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