Dynasty ADP Price Check + Bear Fight! - Dynasty Fantasy Football
66m 20s
The podcast opens with the hosts celebrating the launch of their Ultimate Draft Kit, emphasizing its dynamic updates, such as adjusting projections after AJ Brown's trade to the Rams and Miles Garrett's move. They highlight the kit's real-time nature, which sets it apart from static draft guides. The main discussion centers on Jalen Hurts' dynasty value. Jason remains bullish, ranking him QB6, while others see him as a backend QB1. They argue that Hurts' rushing touchdowns and dual-threat ability make him undervalued, despite a down passing year. The departure of AJ Brown is seen as less concerning because the Eagles added new weapons, and Hurts has historically thrived with different coordinators. However, they note a two-year window before age and offensive line decline could impact his production, making him a buy for teams in win-now mode. The conversation then shifts to Dynasty ADP volatility, using Rashee Rice as an example. His value has dropped due to off-field issues and an expiring contract, with fears he could become a mediocre asset if he leaves Kansas City's system. The hosts acknowledge the difficulty of trading such players at fair value, as league mates may be hesitant to pay a premium. Overall, the episode blends draft kit promotion with strategic dynasty insights, emphasizing the importance of context and timing in player valuation.
[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast with Borg Bets and a Baller. [music] Welcome in! [music] It's June 3rd here. Finish Footballer's Dynasty Podcast. You got Borg, Bets and Jason. Finally got a Baller on here. Finally. People, they, they unsubscribe to Jason. They were just like tired of Borg and Bets. I did because I would have to, but they're back now and they're back now because the UDK is out. We've been, this last month, we've been working hard, we've been recording all these videos, we've been doing everything to get the ultimate draft get released. And so that's why you guys lifted this show upon your shoulders and collapsed under its weight. Correct. It's because we were busy doing the real work, but that's launched. It's awesome. The feedback has been great. And I, I say all that, but you guys do so much work. You guys are grinding the whole month of May as well. All of our sweat and tears and pride and joy. They're all in the UDK. It's all available. It's all up, not just the Dynasty version, but the whole thing now, ultimate draft get.com. Make sure you get it because you need it. I mean, you're right in a lot of ways. And I think of over the years, I mean, a lot of you guys listening, you listen to footballers for more than a decade. But think about how many iterations of the draft kit you've had Jason, the different, like versions, the different upgrades. And then just think about where we're at now, not just like the total words and content, the number of videos. But then the way that we update everything is when trades go through, you know, we talk about miles, Gary, we talk about AJ Brown. It's like everything that we do is live and available there. Including the projections, like you and I on the back in bets always see, like, here's what Jason did going into his stat doc and actually adjusting the target shares and making sure that things actually are right as opposed to just, here's where I feel like AJ Brown should go. So like, those are the things that I think I feel most proud of with the draft kit that like, in real time, we are adjusting things. This is the first year I feel like, you know, like it was released, obviously on June 1st. And usually when it's released, it's like the dead period of kind of NFL window. So it's like, all right, it'll be released. And then when we get in training camp, this thing is updated as soon as we get news. And it was like within hours of being released, we got very big news. Obviously with AJ Brown being traded at miles, Gary, which I don't know if that affected anything on your guys. And Jason from a projection standpoint on like the Rams offense just because of like, holy crap, brains defense, they just be unbelievable. But the projections were updated. Yes, it didn't change my stats. I thought about it, but I do think it changes kind of my upside hope and guys like conception. You know, just the fact that if the defense is really, really good, and they are holding the other team to nine points by the end of the game, then the passing work might go down and the ceiling for conception is lower. I didn't change the median outcome projections, but I do. It's like a mental change where I go, okay, maybe, but it's still the brunt. Yes. And that's the big problem. We will get to talk about conception on today because we will be playing a dynasty ADP price check game. And whenever we have games on the show, I always feel bad because I have all the answers. I have them in front of me. Oh, you do? Yeah, of course. I, you know, and so I make sure to make you guys feel dumb. Yeah, for this game, got it. I thought you meant just like in life and for all fans. No, no, no, I am very short on a lot of things, but it gives me great pleasure to basically have things in front of me. And you guys kind of squirm like, I don't want to give a dumb answer. But here's my gut reaction. It's always hard. It sucks. These games suck to be on this side of it. Yeah. So we'll talk about conception on ADP some, some different players that I feel like will be good discussion points. But like Jason mentioned, everything's updated ultimate draft kit.com. I do have a quick question, which essentially is a game as well. And you can play along if you're listening with us or watching on YouTube. Is a who am I question? So I'm going to read out a clue. And when you guys have an answer locked in, let's do it. And I think it'll lead to a good discussion. So clue number one, clue number one, the last time that I was a top eight player at my position was 2023. We're discussing the player. This is that's what this game is. That's what this game is. Who am I? And don't say it out loud. But when you feel like you got the answer, move on. Or if you have any thoughts like, okay, 2023. A couple of years ago. 2023. So we just finished 25. 24, 23. So three years ago. And they were top eight at the position. Okay. Okay. Okay. All right. Next one could be an old guy now. Could be a little bit older. Let's go with clue number two. I am coming off a season where I set a career low in rushing touchdowns. Okay. Career low and rushing. So how does so far? How's this player trending for you guys for 2026? I've got my. I've got my. I've got my. Oh, yes. Already. Um, I do not. Uh, Jason's writing it down in his left handed pinmanship form. Yeah. Okay. So a bad hand ready. Okay. So obviously the trend is not great. Uh, is what you want to say. Obviously the trend seems seems to think. And knowing me, what, what, what do you, where do you think I'm going with this? That means it's got to be someone that people are excited about for fantasy now. I, which probably means what I wrote down is okay. I'll say this. Knowing you guys and knowing our listeners, this is definitely like I'm trying to play with your emotions here because I think this is a player that we all like. So, all right. So so far, last time they were top eight players 2023. They're coming off a season where they set a career low in rushing touchdowns. Clue number three. I'm entering my age 28 season. Okay. That kind of narrows who this player is where they're out in their career. If they're age 28, you probably can guess they're not on their first contract. Obviously any any any any good vibes bets. I think I have a name or two that I'm considering. I don't want to lock it in yet, but I got a name. There's somebody at home that is screaming. They're so much smarter than you guys. They understand. But I, I'm obviously trying to throw you off a little bit. So I'll give you clue number four. And this might help you. My team has more wins than any other NFL team over the last four years. I still think my answer might be right. Do you want to lock it in Jason? Uh, yeah, at this point, I'll at this point I'll lock it in unless I want to change my mind. Okay. Okay. Okay. Tell us who it is. I, I mean, I don't know if I'm supposed to reveal now or wait. I say because clue number five, I think will will very much narrow this is our final clue. Will very much narrow what it is. I mean, I will say this. We don't even know the position. That is very true, Jason. Go ahead, Jason. So go ahead. I have an answer if you want me to give mine. Well, if you've already got one, I'm going to go. That was my guess. That is correct. Yeah, baby. Yeah, but I did it after two. I wrote this down. Wow. I was like, he kind of seems like 27, 28. I started to feel that. And then when they were like, oh, most wins in the NFL last four years, I was like, oh, they've been a playoff team. I second guest it. I second guest it when lowest rushing touchdowns of his career, I was unsure because like rookie year, like Jalen hurts, was that he really had more rushing touchdowns? Rookie. I think I said as a starter, as a starter, but I tried to use rushing touchdowns to throw people off. I'm thinking running back. But in the final clue was the discussion that I want to have is the ballers are split on my dynasty startup ranking. Jason, you are the most bullish on Jalen. Usually. And Andy and Mike have him as a back and quarterback one. You still have him at QB six. And I checked a couple of other sites. He's in that QB six to eight range on most sites in rankings and post a J Brown. I want to have the discussion about Jalen hurts. Betts, your viest, you can give your thoughts to his Eagles fan. But I feel like in in redraft circles, he is a discounted version of the guy that we've been drafting over the last four or five years in dynasty. There is this point right now where post a J Brown people have made up their mind of this is really good for him or this is really bad for him or I feel like what a lot of people like, I don't know what to do. So Jason, do you view him any differently with a J Brown out from in terms of like what he's good at in fantasy, which is just running the ball. Yeah, I mean, it's it's always bad for a quarterback to lose a great wide receiver. So I don't view AJ Brown leaving as like, oh, there's going to be so much better for Jalen hurts. Now he doesn't have a diva in the locker room. He could target whoever's open doesn't have to get in his head about targeting AJ Brown. That narrative, I think, is a little bit nonsensical. However, they're not just losing AJ Brown. They added McCyell him and Eli Stowers. So as a receiving core,
I don't think they are that much worse. More weapons sometimes is better than one big weapon. And like you said, it's really the rushing value that has always been Jalen Hertz's cheat code for fantasy. There's a guy who can go out there and rush for 15 touchdowns with the push, which obviously we know is not being eliminated. So I still like when I started Jalen Hertz out, I started him originally without a J brown. Like I did the whole team automatically without AJ Brown and then I just added AJ Brown in on top because I figured he was going to move. So nothing has changed for me in my belief for Jalen Hertz. I think he is perennially undervalued in fantasy. And the fact that this has become such a defensive run the ball team over the last two years has people really sour. He knows a guy who is only going to throw for just over 3,000 yards and they don't need to air it out. And that's what we have seen. And that's why he is not valued very high. That doesn't mean that that is what's going to happen. Like that's not a usually things go back and forth. We've seen him throw for 3,800 yards. We've seen him throw for 3,700 yards. Like he can get it done. And there's a different offensive coordinator. I mean Sean minions in town. And so we'll see. Obviously the defense being great will probably mean he's not going to throw for 3,800. But if he comes out this year and throws 3,500 yards, I'm not the least bit surprised. Yeah, I don't have too much to add. I mostly agree with Jason's point there where it does feel like any time in fantasy football we're always so recency biased. Like what happened last year? Let's just draft players accordingly. And the Eagles offense was basically unwatchable every single week because of the ski issues and among other things offensive line problems, all those things. And so if you just expect some kind of regression in a good way back to kind of what we've seen with this Eagles offense in the last three to four years, I still think Jalen hurts is a very very strong candidate to put up top six, top eight type numbers this year. So for redraft, like I'm totally in the question for me on hurts from a dynasty outlook is how much do you believe in McCiell Eman? Because I think that is a huge factor here. The other thing is the offensive line likely has a lot of turnover probably coming in the next two-ish years. And this is largely been, I don't know, over the last like three years considered a top five unit. So if they're losing some of these veterans, can they replace them and go down that path. So I could see this kind of trend happening where like hurts is great for another couple of years in fantasy. And then you start to get to like the age 30 season you asked yourself, is he going to run as much as the offensive line getting worse at that point to about to Smith will be 29, I believe 30 years old. And so I do think there's a window where like the hurts years will still be very good in the short term, but I do agree dynasty like it's you're somebody that likes to play more than three years out, which that's not what we do, but people do like to play that way. I think there are things to consider, but I'm with you Jason, just like this guy has been a prolific fantasy score. Basically, since he's been in the NFL, I mean, you really haven't seen much to say that will change in the short term. So if you've got him, I think I'd still be still feel very confident about him as a locked in quarterback one. Do you guys feel like this is a small buy window? Let's say you're in a super flex league and you're like, I want one of the elites, but he's not being priced as one of the leads. Like I'm looking right now like he's behind Jackson Dart, who we think can be that guy. He's obviously young enough to be that guy, but we know Jalen hurts can score 10 rushing touchdowns. We know that his offense could be top five in the league where like hurts is behind him. He's behind Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Rehomes, whatever you think about him. Like that's kind of where hurts is being priced. Yeah, that's probably where he belongs. And you know, I would still take Jackson Dart. If this was a dynasty startup, I'd rather draft Dart over hurts, but that doesn't mean he is not also a buy candidate for a certain team in a certain situation. You've got no quarterback. You don't have to give up a ton for him and or he is now acquirable. But I will say that, you know, I think it's a two year window because his archetype, he's not even though he's thrown for 3,800 yards, he's not the prolific pocket passer. The entire world knows that, you know, he's not like Josh Allen will not be able to run for 15 touchdowns and, you know, six or 700 yards in three more years. But when that change happens, he could sit there in the pocket and throw for 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns that can't that transition. I don't think can happen for hurts. So dynasty, you're really if you're buying him, you're in a championship window and you need someone to put you over the top. Agreed. And the opposite coordinator stuff is just wild. We've talked a lot about how hurts is basically at a different coordinator since really beginning of college. But you think look at the Eagles. It's basically been, who is their coordinator was stiking. This is great. Next year, Brian Johnson, train wreck, Kellyn Moore, go back to the Super Bowl and win it. Last year with Patulow, who are do you do they even say that name and Philly anymore? Kevin Patulow. Only when you want to replace a swear word. That's okay. Yeah, they say it like they're specifically on the ground. Patulow. You don't know where is the passing coordinator for the dolphins this year. I know he was somewhere, but I also in the back of my mind thought like, does it matter? Or maybe it does because who knows? That's going to be great. Whenever they promoted from within bad things have happened. When they hire from the outside. Yeah, really? Good things happen. Yeah. It's just so weird that they hired Sean Manion. Like out of nowhere. You know, it's not like, like Kellyn Moore was a grab. You know, they went out when they when they when they lost and they had to fire their O.C.'s a couple years ago after they their first round of, you know, hiring from within. They went out and they got stall warts. They got like the best most known commodity at DC and O.C. that was existing on the market. And this time they're like, let's try someone with no experience. He's I mean, Sean Manion's still in our player profiles because he was in the league like not that long ago. But yeah, I mean, these were the Packers last couple of years. We'll see. I've only heard great things and I'm really excited. But also I want the Eagles to be a thing. Like I want we all went to Vante Smith to be an alpha and to be great. So we'll see how we are. We are genuinely like here's thing Kyle and I have always been die hard to Vante Smith fans. And college like as a prospect as a wide receiver, we love him. And then you got bets who's just an Eagles fan. So of course. So as a show, we are very, we are very bullish on the talent of Devon Tess Smith. Why do you see one baby? AJ Brown. Do you like which nickname do you like better? Do you like slim Reaper or skinny Batman bets? I just like smitty. Smitty. Okay. I mean, he's great. You can't do the skinny Batman thing because that was his thing with AJ Brown. Swole Batman. Swole Batman. And now we don't even we don't say that name and fill any more. So he's AJ. Oh, yeah. Yeah. He's he's a bad guy. I love it. The fan reaction is so funny because like half people are like hate his guts and the other half are like this guy was like one of the best receivers in the league for four straight years and been to the playoffs and put up and you got a super bowlers and they're like went to two super balls. So always get dry somewhere in the middle. Filly fans man. No, I'm an AJ Brown guy. All right, let's take quick break and we'll be right back. All right, we are back and we are going to play a little Dynasty ADP price check game. Let's get into it. You better check yourself before you wreck yourself. Before we get into our first name, I do want to give a little caveat about Dynasty ADP because like we're ascribing values to players based on perceived worth. We think this player is going to be worth this over a period of time, but everybody plays Dynasty a little differently. You can see players, you can see Jason's projections and that's how we rank them, right? We rank them based on here's the fantasy points. They will score and these are the stat based projections for Dynasty. It's a little vague and so ADP can be a little vague sometimes too. Like in the last month, if you would have asked me at the beginning of May, how much is Rishi Rice worth? 15 wide receiver in Dynasty. That's what he might be talent wise and then based on sentiment alone, I went on a couple of sites, but one of them, he's down to wide receiver 30. And because the vibes obviously are very different. If we're just talking about you might think Dynasty ADP doesn't change that much because it's like, all right, we're doing this over a sample size. This Jacobs in a week, the vibes changed very much so and we're still waiting on if there's anything, there's nothing he's showing up at OTAs is if it's nothing, but like what business as you that was the phrase, right? Business as usual. Yeah, that was that was what La Florese. But I just wanted to bring that up with Dynasty ADP. Things can shift and it also shifts based on your league mates like what piece of news did they hear last? And if they have Josh Jacobs and they're in a certain cycle of their team, they're like, I gotta get out now.
I have to get out of Josh Jacobs or I have to get out of his she rice. Jason, you have her she rice. Ben, don't you have Middle League as well? I've got him in Dino, Jr. Yeah. Why me what you guys got to be terrified like nobody I'm assuming you will not get a price that you think he's worth. No, I mean, I, I've been terrified for like a year and a half with, with rice as a dynasty manager, just knowing that he's not going to be the same fantasy value on any other team in the league. He's an unrestricted for agent at the end of this year. And if he leaves town, I think he becomes a mediocre fantasy asset. While he's on the field with my homes and Andy Reed in the system that they have been deploying. He is a fantasy superstar. He's like a top five wide receiver on a points per game basis. Now you add in just the constant headache, knucklehead issues off field and stuff that is like you might miss games this year. And I can't imagine that the chiefs really want to resign him to the deal that he is reportedly asking for. So in my opinion, I am hoping that no suspension comes that the first four weeks of the season, he is dominating. And I will trade him for whatever I can squeeze out of him. Yeah, both these players now is not the time to trade them. Like you want to have him blow at the market and just accept like there will be times in the calendar year where your players, unless your league mates are for whatever reason asleep, you really can't trade them. Like you're not going to get anything close to the actual value where she rice is going to provide your team. So like Jason saying, you get past training camp, you get over this knee injury. This man is literally in jail currently as as this recording once all of that stuff starts to kind of be in the past. You have those big games as blob games and you flip them to a contender in your league. I'm with you on that. The Rishi Rice thing is so tricky because it's like, and I grew through on the chiefs thing, like normally players that do it, Rishi Rice is done in the first part of the career on the field, not talking about any of the other stuff. By now, there are already in contract extension negotiations and the chiefs have basically closed the door on that because of his off the field stuff. So I don't think he's a chief long term. Quite frankly, it's how I'm viewing this. I think it's more likely that he's your test open market next year. And the chiefs are kind of done with the off the field stuff. So yes, I'm with you. I'm quite worried on Rishi Rice. So let's go through the 80 Ps of a couple of different players. The way that I did this is I took an aggregate and an average of a couple of different sites, dynasty league football. So we have some friends that have been there for a long time, sleeper, which we use a lot and we'll use on mock drafts for the show and keep trade cut, which is another website, which is more crowd based. I tried to take an average so that it wasn't just tied to one website. And the way that we're going to do something to name a player and you guys just tell me what position they are. So wide receiver X, you know, wide receiver 10 or whatever they are. And the first player is Casey Concepcion, which I think we are all very big fans of, but in a dynasty startup, okay? You can start with a little range. Like I think he's a low in this. And then we'll try to nail it. But where do you think he's going in startup ADP? Usually this time of year, rookies and startup ADP are behind where they should be going, I think. So I'm going to guess he's very low for a first round rookie wide receiver. I'm going to guess like wide receiver 50. Oh, wow. I'm way, I think he's going way ahead and I'll go wide receiver. He should be 28. All right. He's going as wide receiver 30 and in a superflex startup, he's like seventh, eighth round. It still feels like no man's land. If we're honest, like if you've been in a startup and you're taking players who we have literally never seen step on in a field, you're taking this player to be your wide receiver three and that may sound exciting. We really like the profile. We talked about them on tons of shows throughout this year. I know Mike likes him a lot as well. But it feels like no man's land when you compare it to known commodities and what else? Who's he going? Who's he going next to? Do you have like the 180 people that get you list? I'm curious what wide receivers would be there because it you're right. When you're building a startup, it's nice to have those young guys, but it's scary. If that's your wide receiver three to be like, I'm, I'm, you know, when you draft them in a rookie draft, he's just kind of, he starts as a bench guy on your team. He starts as your wide receiver four or five and you just hope when you grab, that's why I assumed he'd be very much lower in a startup 80 P, not necessarily start a breaking. Not only enough, a player that's going right after him, Rishi Rice, who we just talked about. Yeah. Alec Pierce, Jordan Addison, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden. Interesting. It's, yeah, I mean, it sounds, it sounds about right. There's big question marks with all of those guys. I'm not sure who you would be thrilled to have as your wide receiver three on your team out of those guys. Maybe, maybe Alec Pierce, because he just got the money. He's shown he could do it on the field, but obviously, you know, we just had the debate on the main show yesterday of, of Alec Pierce, uh, there's some disagreement on what he can provide for, for fantasy on a consistency basis. Yeah. And that's, that's, I, I would probably pull the trigger on conception on, you know, the, the first round rookie who we haven't seen versus the first round rookie from last year that we have seen be bad in Matthew Golden. Right. I want to like talk about his range of outcomes real quick. And Jason, you can look up your projections. You have the ultimate draft kit for conception on, but that's like kind of paint the picture of, I mean, we're at the start of the career. So all of us are kind of saying this could be great. This could be really great. Like, I think he can be more than a gadget player, which I think he kind of gets pegged as. So like in your one, could he leave the team and targets or is it fan in like, I feel way more comfortable as fan and I think he could. I think the, most likely outcome, especially if you look at, kind of what Todd Mocken has done with going back to the Ravens days with the tight end years there, obviously in Andrews and likely like the tight end position will be featured. So now that David and Joku's gone, I do think Fanon's probably more likely. I don't know what percentage I would give that probability wise, but I would say he's probably more likely, but I wouldn't be surprised if Casey conception on is able to earn targets the way he did in college in an offense that outside of fan and doesn't really have legit target earners like whenever a new staff comes in and they get their guys, especially in round one, like, sure, Jerry Judy's in the roster, but it's like, Todd Mocken spent the offseason review of the Jerry Judy film and said, we need better water seepers. So he doubled it. The NFL draft with Denzel Boston, like I think Casey conception is on the field right away in week one as a full time player. And so yeah, if he is that that target earner that we saw in college, I think it's possible. He could leave this team and targets. Jason, where do you have met in terms of targets? Yeah. In terms of targets, I've got him with 95 targets. I've got him third in the packing order here behind fan and Jerry Judy in his rookie season. I do think it is within the range of outcomes that he leads a target leads the team in targets in year one. But obviously that's not how I project it. His his role is going to be the thing that I'm most interested in because he was a do it all as a freshman NC state. And then when he transferred this past year to tech saying him, it's like he had a lot of slants. He had a lot of screens, but he still had the part of his game where he could like win on the outside. He wasn't just a slot only dude. And that's the part that like if you could be more than like I'm looking at his route tree. And I compared it to some NFL guys. It's like, please be more than Cluel Shakir good NFL player. Got a second contract. No slight to him, but like they drafted him to be more than that from the spot. So can he be. Can he be that group of white receivers? I hate saying auto back him like primo, but like him and the smaller guys who can start on the outside and win on the outside, even though they're not six foot plus like that's the kind of route that I think he can go. But he's struggled with drops. Hopefully that's not a thing. And then hopefully they get a quarterback at some point like you're tired. You're still guessing that this team is going to be somewhat competent two years from now. And they get a quarterback. So that's kind of like the hard cap for me right now of saying this is what he will be. I will say that the trade that they just made is really, really good for for the Browns. I mean, obviously losing my house's care hurts, but like when you're looking at this youth filled team, with Shadour Sanders right now, either he steps up and becomes a legitimate quarterback or they're going to have a top pick and tons of draft. The next couple of years they have so much draft capital and they have good weapons here. You know, two early drafted wide receivers fanning. This could be a team where in a couple of years, I could see the offense being like, Hey, this is a, this is a top half a top third offense. Because of the amount of capital they have. So from a dynasty perspective, I'm a little bit more bullish on conception on then just my redraft outlook for this season. Yeah, you're going to take some lumps this year just with the quarterback play, I think, but like you said, if they can move up or get their guy next year, like you could see the ceiling outcome here. Real quick, the mouse Garrett trade, like we don't talk real real life NFL trade outcomes very often, unless it's fantasy related, but kind of like what the Browns are doing. Like I'm now scared is obviously like the man, like nobody's questioning that. But it's not like Jared versus a bad player like Jerry versus a awesome ed rusher. And he's only 25 years old. So to get a first, what a second and a fifth on top of it or whatever it was. Yeah, I mean, that was that was a poll. I don't know how you could not take.
that deal because it's not like you're winning a Super Bowl next two years and Miles Garrett's 30 years old. So it's like what you hold on to him so that when he's 33, you know, and and pass his prime that you can know you take that hall. It was a great move by ever since the Dishon Lots in contract, which it was egregious. They've done a lot of good things in the front office. So we'll see. Trading back last year, acquiring picks this year, even drafting Spencer Fano, trading back like all those things. I feel like they're making the moves that we would say, like you're building the right way. Yes. All right. Next name I'm going to talk about is Brock Purdy, quarterback for the services co 49ers in a startup. What quarterback rank is yet? So we mentioned something that names earlier. Too low. Would you say too low? Too low. He's too low. Okay. He's too low. People do not give Brock because he was the last pick in the draft. It will carry with him forever until I mean, he is good. He's good at he's good for his father feels that throws touchdowns. He throws touchdowns. Like, you know, you look at most guys and you're like, oh, this 7% touchdown rate. That's the outlier. It's obviously going to regress back to 4%. He's like living in the high fives, 6%. He throws such a and he's young and he just got a monster contract. So for dynasty, I think he's under I think he'll probably be drafted about quarterback 15, which he should be a top 12 dynasty. I was going to say quarterback 14. That was the that was the number that came into my mind. All right. Because we talked about hurts earlier and hurts is kind of that back in quarterback one range dart. He's going as a QB 13 right now. Okay. So I would say based on those sentiments, you guys shared it's like, okay, this is low enough. But when you start to stack up the names, it does get tough. Like, nobody's going to take. Party over Jackson dart or right now Trevor Lawrence, who is trending in a really good direction. Bo Nix is a name that is going ahead of him that I think is an interesting name to throw out there too. And then if you're in a superflex startup, he's going at this three, four turn and depending on your strategy and superflex, if you're doing a startup, you might be one of those people says, Hey, I'm taking my quarterback in the first round, no matter what. I feel like he ends up being a value. If you get him as your QB two in the third round, if you want to play that way, because we all like Brock party. And he ends up being one of those guys that just consistently throws touchdowns the name that shows up on the list of who has the best TD rate. This many games in the career. Number one is Tony Romo, who wasn't always the sexiest quarterback, but always did put up touchdown numbers. And then it's Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Brock party at 6.2%. And you guys remember what he did at the end of last year when he was, I mean, he won me a championship league when he's the QB five, four and one, those final three weeks. So I think we all agree that you add Mike Evans. Did I have Mike Evans? No, I'm saying you add Mike Evans, at least, you know, for this year, you've got Shanahan. I really like him. I do have him one spot ahead of Bo Nix. And I think some people would be like that, that's, that's crazy because of the age, you know, Bo Nix is younger. And it's like, no, he's not. They're both 26 years old. You know, it's like they are, they're the same age. One of them already has a guaranteed next contract. Um, Nick's runs a little bit more, but I do have him. I was looking at my ratings. I have Brock party as my quarterback 12 and dynasty. Yeah, I like that strategy. You caught out Kyle. If you were in super flex, like, there's always a demand, obviously for quarterbacks early on in drafts. But if you wanted to take the approach of top tier skill players and snag party as your quarterback one, like I feel, I feel good about that. Um, if you wanted to take one early, double dip on a couple of skill guys and come back with him as your quarterback to obviously that's great. So yeah, he just kind of feels like a guy that in this system and in the scheme, we've just seen it and they are a little older. So like, there is some like, what does life look like after that thing? See and kiddle and Trent Williams and all those guys. But like, man, I just think about these Kyle Shanahan teams and like, he had Jimmy Gropalo playing top tier level or like Nick Mullins on a random Thursday night. Like last year with Mac Jones and Kendrick Boer, like the offense is just humming. So I don't know. Kyle Shanahan is just he's that good. And I think pretty is that good. But people don't really give him credit for that because like Jason said, he kind of has the stigma of where he came from the NFL draft and all that sort of thing. But when he's gone on the field, he's always among the league leaders and fantasy points for dropback. Should we just punt those fears down the road since we play two to three years at a time anyways and just say, Hey, there will be a day when Christian McCaffrey, basically the best fantasy superstar of our lifetime, retires and kiddos gone and we'll deal with that then. But for right now, this is a high end quarterback two or a low and quarterback one in dynasty. Yeah. I mean, I look, Kettle got injured last year and Juan Jennings was the guy who Brock Pertey used to be great. You know, when you were winning a championship, there was no Mike Evans. I don't remember if Kettle was injured yet at that point. But I mean, this is Shanahan's scheming things open and Shanahan's not going anywhere and Pertey's the Kettle injury was in the actual NFL playoffs. It was after fantasy was done. All right. Next name that we're going to bring up 23 year old, a Marion Hampton running back for the Los Angeles Chargers. Where is he going in startups? What what running back? RB five. I yeah, it's going to be high. I I was thinking RB seven. Okay. But it's it's going to be in that range. You guys are both dumb. It was RB six. You guys are could not be could not be Dumber. I was going through this task before I figured out I had the name and I was like, okay, let me work backwards. Okay. So it's Gibbs and B. John. They're at the very very top love of genty. They're going to be ahead of him. Yes. And then and that's then you're trying to piece together like who are the names and who do you want? Do you want H. Anne, which I'm totally fine if you want to put him, which he is. But then right after that, it's like James Cook, Jonathan Taylor. It's older guys. It's three three year older guys. You're 100% right. I'm looking at my, you know, my rankings and that's exactly how it goes. It goes, you know, those top four guys. And then I went, I went H. Anne over Hampton. There's only a one year gap there. H. Anne's still pretty young. He's already got the next contract. And he's shown that he's great in fantasy. Hampton is still a projection. You know, some of the efficiency numbers were really bad in his rookie season, even though he did very good things for total fantasy points in the games he played. I'm not too scared of that because I think the offensive line issues last year were real and are gone. I love Hampton. But yeah, I mean, you almost have to have him six. I can't imagine taking Jonathan Taylor or James Cook or Chase Brown or a Christian McCaffrey over, you know, they're just so much older. They're so much older. I mean, the only guys that I think if you really want to call your shot on, if you wanted, it has to be one of the younger guys. You're like, no, Travion Henderson's going to be better. And I'm going to vault him way up there or Camp Skataboo. You know, Ken Walker is only 25 and has a brand new contract. Like that's, but to me, it's Hampton. I think it's fascinating that we're talking about Hampton and H. Anne going back to back in startup drafts, considering the Mike Bay Daniel connection here. Man, I wouldn't be surprised if Hampton flips, um, flips him in ADP startup or even ahead of Gentie. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised just like as you close to the season, you think about the Charter's offense and compare to the Dolphins offense. Like I know that that's a redraft take, but people draft dynasty startups with what's going to happen this season in mind. And obviously you look at the arrow of the Charter's offense and the Dolphins offense and they're heading a complete opposite direction. So I wouldn't be surprised if if it's Hampton over H. Anne has like a consensus take, um, I don't know where I land on that quite frankly, but certainly from a team level perspective this year, you got to be more excited about what's going on in LA. I was looking at the Charter's offense as I do most days of my life. And I this is you're literally wearing a Charter's. Literally daily cows looking at Charter's stuff. Well, my kids asked the other day like, do we like the Charter's more than the Falcons? And I said today, maybe, maybe we do. But so Mike McDaniel, his system that would like in 2023 when that was like the Rahee most year. Remember was like most scored whatever 20 touchdowns. They were so good in like zone based stuff. And if you look at what Hampton was really good at in college and then what he was way better at last year is this man gap Greg Roman. We're going to punch you in the mouth. And then Hampton's always been a tackle breaker like that was his thing at UNC. I'm just trying to figure out what this offense looks like because there's what McDaniel did in Miami, which is just straight speed, right? Like that. We are better at anybody else. And now you look at an offensive line that's healthy. Some tight ends that can block Charlie Kohler. They brought in and Joku. I'll fullback who he brought over from Miami. I look ingold. And I'm just trying to fix
- Keaton Mitchell. - And Keaton Mitchell is the, is my question. - Keaton Mitchell is a real, like if Hampton has a bad year this year for fantasy without being injured, I think Keaton Mitchell would be the reason why. He fits that type of McDaniel scheme perfectly, blazing speed, just like lightning in a bottle where, I mean, you saw, like that was the thing with, with most or two, just 'cause he was bigger. You don't remember how fast most it was. The speed there is, is very important to McDaniel. - I just, like are the ancillary guys? Like I think Hampton can eat, but there is this thing that McDaniel loves, his obsession he has with speed, where it's like, is he gonna mix in Mitchell or Vidal more than, more than we want to, so that like Hampton's really, really good, but isn't like, 350 opportunities. Like he's not getting this crazy amount and they just live off efficiency and they rotate guys. Like I love this offense, but I also worry like, is there just so many dudes that they could just keep diversifying wide receivers and running backs and tight ends? - Yeah, earlier in the off season for, for redraft leagues, just looking at 2026 fantasy points, I had Hampton ahead of Gentie because offensive line, offense, quarterback, all of that. I've flipped it now. I have Gentie ahead. I'm more and more bullish on Gentie as we go along and it's really the opportunities. If you told me that both of these guys get 350 opportunities, I would take Hampton. I would take the offense, the touchdown upside, but I'm far more confident in one of those guys actually getting 350 opportunities and it's Gentie. - I think I agree with that. Yeah, I think I agree with that. Some of the best teams in the league, it doesn't feel that way for us in fantasy because we obviously want everything to be for our guys in our roster and nobody else. But some of the best teams have this ability to rotate that wider receiver and rotate it, or any back and give you three or four different looks in a game from a personnel standpoint. I think that's what we're getting with the chargers. I could see weeks were frustrated with the chargers offense in fantasy, yet there's still a very, very good offense and they're a very good team for real life and NFL purposes. Obviously it'll all come back to Herbert from top down perspective, but I do think the, at least like in the short term by Dow and Keaton Mitchell's stuff, not that they're gonna take major, major work necessarily, but maybe just enough to kind of be annoying. I don't think that's crazy. - Yeah, I think Mitchell's a really fun stash that you're not counting on to be a thing, but it wouldn't surprise me if you had these spike weeks. Probably a better and best ball, dynasty best ball format, but definitely a fun player that he signed because he has a substantial speed. So it should be an interesting name. Let's hit Quick Break and then we will talk about Roma Duneze. (upbeat music) Jason, as your friend. - Yeah, yeah, tell me. - The other day on the main show, Mike just set it up with the, they had an explain yourself episode on the main podcast and it just, he was throwing punches right away and I really wanted you to do Jason, 'cause I wanted you to fight dirty. I wanted you to just go for the go-nass, right there on the show. - Just sink 'em. - Yeah, just something that like, shocking off that like, hey, that's not fighting fair. And but, 'cause I know you, but you took it like a man, you responded the way that you should in terms of Roma Duneze versus Luther Burton. I want you to develop that conversation a little bit more. We can talk about the dynasty outlook because I'm telling you, redraft people love Luther Burton. Dynasty people are the pants have been off for a while and considering I have on my team, I'm excited too. So, where do you think Roma Duneze is going in Dynasty startup? - Man, I know in redraft, he's about wide receiver 30, but he is young, a top 10 pick. So I would imagine he's got to be ahead of that. - Mm-hmm. - I'm gonna say he is fallen to wide receiver 23. - I was gonna say wide receiver 25. - He is still the wide receiver 16 in Dynasty. - That shots me honestly. - Where's Burton? - So, Burton, let me pull this up. So, Burton, as much as we love Burton, we know that he hasn't fully done it yet. Let's see, Burton is wide receiver 20. - Interesting, I wonder if that will flip, 'cause it's flipped in, you know, in redraft. And if you think that Burton is going out score Rome this year, he is younger. He should be drafted, I mean, that makes no sense to have a redraft burden ahead. I'm gonna take the burden hand, which is the wide receiver that we've seen, have plenty of dominating games. Rome dominated so many games last year before that foot injury. I'm curious Kyle, you know, you help make the cases on the explain yourself episode. You built the case against him. You also listened to both. You have Burton, you are an intelligent football mind. Where do you genuinely stand on the burden Rome? I have not heard your take once. - I think the redraft conversation I'm completely on your side. He's way too cheap right now for what he can do and I still think he's the one. I got that, that's how. Okay, that's my question is, who do you think is the wide receiver one for the Bears? - I think he's the one. I think that there is an outcome that Mike is kind of bringing it up and touching like, this isn't just like a good wide receiver for the Bears. Like this could be like a top five for years, whispering like names like Antonio Brown type of wide receivers. That's where Mike is going. - You're saying Luthier Bird, yeah. - That's what you think. - I just wanna say Mike Copping Rome to Darius Hayward Bay and Michael Floyd was nasty work man. Come on Mike. - Yeah, you wanna talk. - Someone's doing dirty work. - What are those names? - I was like, oh no, he did not. Which obviously is, you wanna make the point. You wanna make your point as strong as you can. You pick the most obvious top 10 bus you can. - I blame Kyle one hundred percent for that. - I'm obviously being a Bears pick was just so good. So that's it to Mike for that. - Honestly, Colson Lovelin. Like genuinely, that is my stance. I think this offense will run through Colson Lovelin and I think that's probably a contrarian take. But I just go back to like, what happened down the stretch? And the same conversation with Rome with the foot injury and how healthy was like, obviously was not healthy down the stretch. For the last like two months of the season who was playing through a stress fracture in his foot, you're not gonna be a hundred percent. But I keep coming back to like, in the playoffs, like they're designing routes for Lovelin with the game on the line. Like I think he's, I've felt this way for a while but I think he's truly a special player and I do think he could ascend to be like one of the few tight ends in the league that leads their team in targets. So truthfully that's where I stand, but on the Rome versus Luther Bern thing, it's so tricky man. 'Cause like I tend to buy into these target earner type archetypes, but I still think there's a possibility. I don't know what percentage it is, but if there's a possibility that he's not like a true 90% of the routes type of player, burden? Yeah, burden. Whereas like with Rome, I know for sure he's on the field and he won't leave outside of injury. So, it's tough. - The nice thing. - The nice thing for burden, like I can see a world where I can paint a picture where it's like, okay, you really do have Lovelin and Odunse as the primary targets. They're soaking up the vast majority, you know, 55% of all targets go to those two points. And then Luther, thank you. And then Luther, burden is just a more of a gadgety use, get some screens and that use case. But the depth chart at wide receiver for the Bears puts Luther, burden on the field in two wide receiver sets. Like, I don't think he's gonna be more of the slot guy not playing the majority of snaps simply because who's taking them off the field? Khalifa Raymond. - Hey. - Xavier and Thomas. - That's Lion's legend. - Khalifa and Lisa. - Should I even Walker? - Yeah, sure. So, you know, that's where, I mean, I think, yeah, I mean, the Bears are probably gonna be the most interesting team to watch. To see like, what is it? How good are they? You know, can Caleb be a 4,000, can Caleb be a 4,500 yard? - Can Caleb complete 60% of his passes? - That's what we're asking. - Yeah, so, yeah, it's fascinating. I went to look at my stats because I was curious. I'm also with you, Betz, that I'm in very much so on Loveland. I think he could be one of those tight ends that leads us team in targets. And I was just curious to like, did I have him leading the league in targets? 'Cause I took a serious look when I was standing out the Bears at all the times that the three were healthy on the field together. Loveland was, during that time, including the playoffs, he was dominating the targets. He was up over 30%, which is outrageous.
That's great for a wide receiver. That's like a guaranteed top 12 wide receiver in fantasy. And so for a tight end was great. But during those times, Rome was very hurt. And I have Rome at 132 targets and Loveland at 124. So I do have Rome leading the lead leading the team in targets. But just I really like the script writers for our show because this Jason Adunesay Mike burden thing like it's kind of like bubbled up to be a thing that will keep going. Like it's it's not just like we brought it up in the off season. Hey, that was fun. Like this is going to keep being a thing. No, yeah, for sure. You've chosen your sides. I will say that I used a stat that said how bad Adunesay was when burden was on the field. The flip side of that is you could do the same thing when Adunesay's on the field and burdens on the field the same time. I mean, Luther burden his yards for outrun was like 1.52 like it wasn't good either. So the part of this equation that we're having to kind of wrestle with is take DJ more out. How does this offense now function when like here's how we looked at all the targets for the first month of the year. And Adunesay was great. Here's how we looked at the targets down the stretch when DJ Moore was still there in the playoffs. So I will say that the DJ more targets to me are Luther burden targets. Okay. Like I think that the the type the role the screen game. I think that'll be Luther burden. All right. So but it wasn't like DJ Moore DJ Moore had 50 catches. It's not like we're we're taking 125 catches and distributing them to the rest of the team. Right. There's about 17% of the targets were like, okay, here's how we distribute these. Here's how we figure out how to do it. The the dynasty bow that I want to put on Adunesay is wide receiver 16 is going late in the fourth and a superflex startup. Would you feel excited to have him as your wide receiver to in dynasty? Because that's that's what he would be for your team. I would be because I believe he is the alpha bet you will be if he is the alpha. There is certainly a world. Okay. You'll be happy. If there is there is certainly a world where he is the whoever is the number three target on this team will be a massive crushing disappointment in fantasy because they're all being drafted like they are going to be really good and all three are not going to be really good for fantasy. I love thinking because it feels like an either or or I need to choose sides or if this happens this happen. There is another fourth door which is don't say this Kyle people. Yeah. No, it's true. They just suck. They just know. I don't know. No, the fourth door is that all three are bad for fantasy regardless of the good. They could be good. Like they could be a winning team. The offense could be good and the way that that happens is very realistic. The way that that happens is that all three players are good in the NFL have plenty of stats at the seasons end and had the worst consistency scores imaginable. This game is a Rome game. That game is a Luther game. This game is a loveland game and you play him in the wrong spots. You think you can rely on him. They goose you the next game. It could be a catastrophe where all three are good but because all three are good no one is good reliably. That's my biggest fear with the bears. I agree. That's possible. Fantasy is fascinating. I was having a conversation with the friend today of like there's parts that feel so easy. There's parts that feel really complex and then there's parts that was like week to week. This is how it actually plays out in the NFL of like Caleb ran in a score backup tied in catches the touchdown and then it's burden with a hundred yard game. You're like what happened to Colston level in this week and you're like I did not see this come and he got six targets and yet he was three for 45. Like those are the range of outcomes week to week. So we're trying to project dynasty knowing that that is possible. We have the we always want to think about the best case like just log out. Either you think it's yes or no you think it's like this guy that guy knowing that that is possible. Right now if you have Luther burden there is an unbelievable amount of value that you have in your roster. I'm not saying trading in the way is a great move for everybody but there are going to be leagues where you can get a haul for a player who works extrapolating a very small sample size on. Yeah. He was a good prospect right like he wasn't like the best prospect but he was pretty good as a prospect and now we're taking like you know a short time frame and saying well what if he's this like and if you're somebody that likes to avoid risk on your team and you want to just maximize return in dynasty. I don't think putting him on the trade block is the craziest idea in the world. You probably can get a huge haul. You could get a haul of halls for a player who hasn't done it yet. And I risk how to say he won't do it. Yeah for sure. You think like if somebody like mid show like literally just put them on the trade block like like as you were literally saying that they could get did you just do that. I was doing it like as he started like churning as the as the wheels of the train I was like I know where this is going. So what leagues listen. Dino junior. Okay. I'm rebuilding. He's perfect for the squad. He's great. I did want to finish this out one final name and I'm going to continue on our bears train because the name I had for us is Kyle Menungai a guy that at I don't really know what he is like I don't know in dynasty in redraft you could say this is a bench stash. This is a flex maybe flex with benefits. It's it's all that a seventh round pick that last year ran for seven or 83 yards five touchdowns. He had a monster game in week nine where Ben Johnson was a sicko. Swift was out. He saw the ball 31 times and he was actually pretty good efficiency wise. But in dynasty no idea what he is for a year from now. You know why he was so efficient. I do Kyle because Swift was out. You played the bangles. Well okay. I know I know what Kamenungai is. He's absolutely worthless. Really? No. Just people in startups think that probably. Because yeah I mean I you're saying the 80p price check that's what I that's the I'm guessing he's it shocked me. It shocked you is he's not in the 20s. Is he in the 20s? No. Running back 26 bets. I was going to guess like RB 45. Okay. He is the RB. Wow. 26. Oh. I know. That's crazy. So here's here's why I'm low on Manungai. He is he had his games and he had his touchdowns. But he wasn't really a special player. He wasn't truly efficient. Some of the the better metrics to look at for how good a running back are you Jason. Okay. I don't think he was that great and there are metrics that of that. Of course. Of course. Say that he wasn't that good. I mean I'm sure there's metrics that say everything. This is a team that has for the last couple of years been heavily rumored at taking one of the big running backs and a draft going to one of the big running backs on the free agent market. It hasn't worked out that way for them. And it's fine. But that's coming. DeAndre Swift is going to be a free agent and I think this next offseason they're going to go get a dude. They're not going to you know they're going to want to do what the Lions did. You look at how they've built this team. They're just kind of like doing the same thing. Let's focus on the offensive line first. Fixed. Ben Johnson comes in. They do that. Let's get the offensive passing weapons. Good. We've we've got that going. Now it's let's find our jimmyer Gibbs. I think they want to do that. And so it my take is that next offseason the bears are going to go get a star running back. And that will make Menongai not a flex with benefits. That will make him a an insurance back. I mean any backup can be good if the starter gets injured outside of that. I don't think that Menongai. I mean I certainly wouldn't be drafting him as running back 26. There's a there's a seventh round running back. Agreed. This team is not committed financially investment wise. They're only committed depth chart wise and they don't like the depth chart. That's what's going to change. This is why startup ranks or rankings in general for dynasty do not tell the full story. I would love to have common fungi for 2026 on my bench as a as a potential flex. I would be terrified to draft him in a startup at RB 26 compared to some other names because the range of outcomes is you just drafted a player where in 2027 you're like, oh my gosh, they got their gifts. They got they got whoever that. So I wanted to bring that up because you know this team was awesomet running the ball. And towards the end of the year, it truly was a 50 50 split. Mike and I spent the morning for real talking about Deondre Swift and Kyle Menongai because Mike is having unhealthy thoughts about Deondre Swift and as his friend, I've tried to direct him in the right path. But will it be a 50 50 split this year? That's a question. But in dynasty circles, I don't think this is a pick that you should be taking in the ninth round of your startup because a year from now. Now, if you're in a league right now, if you want to throw them in on a trade, that's that's what I would prefer. But like startup is terrifying. I mean, I thought I'd be going off the board at RB 45. So the fact that he's going at this price to me is like, I'm going to be going to the next round. I'm going to be going to be
crazy. So I agree with you guys, but at the same time, like he said, you know, could he have standalone value? Possibly. Obviously, if slip goes down, you have massive value on your squad. So if you already have them from last year and like you took them in the fourth round of a rookie draft or something, like, great, just sit on that for a while and, you know, kind of let the, let the season play out. But if there's a window to be like, hey, slips out, go trade this guy. Like I'm doing that for sure, because I agree with you guys, I do think they invest heavily in running back position sometime in the next year. Start up rankings when you get to about RB 30. And I mean, Jason could like look at his rank. There's like, there is a massive cliff after that where it's like, uh, Jonah Coleman, no idea what that guy is. Nicholas Singleton. Same thing, uh, Bill, JK Dobbins, Kenneth Gainwell, Tony Pollard, it's like all these guys are around that 30 range. So they're going behind him. Maybe they're more valuable year from now. But like you're just shooting your shots in startup drafts. So I get why people are aggressive. But I just, this is no man's land. This is like a spot in your drafts that like, you're just hoping you get some, uh, Riko Dowdell, Jonathan Brooks. These are all names that are basically going around him. And they're kind of in the same bucket or tears. So when we do episodes in July, we go through the tears, the dynasty tears. That's how we really talk about players. And when you kind of bucketed bets, you're like, he's like 40 ish 45 like that's probably worry belongs. But who knows you're from now. So, uh, last thought Jason, do you under swift? Do you think that Mike is having unhealthy thoughts? No, I think Mike is having wise thoughts. Swift is the better player. The split was not 50, 50. I'm looking at the last nine weeks after. I did week. Yeah. So, you know, the thing is is Swift is usually more involved in the passing game, had more snaps, had more opportunities. I mean, I guess I didn't look at just the very, very end of the year. But I do think Swift is their primary guy. And Swift is always literally always an RB two. He's never not been an RB two in his entire career. Uh, so I, I'm pretty confident that at the end of this year, he'll be an RB two. And usually he's drafted after that in, in drafts, people don't want him. So I don't, I don't think I don't believe that Mike looks at Swift as like an RB one. I don't think he's viewing him like, Hey, he's got this massive upside. Uh, I think he's just seeing a value because he is being drafted behind where he's almost certainly going to finish. And he's decently consistent, isn't he? Like what's his consistency score? Last year, yeah. Yeah, I mean, that's, that's fine for a guy that's, you know, usually like I'm seeing him at the five, six turn in startups right now, or not, not dynasty startups, but just in redraft. I mean, to get a guy that's pretty much a guaranteed RB two, who's pretty consistent, like at the, in the sixth round, where it's usually just the dead zone. Who's going ahead in dynasty startups for these two guys with no, no, no, I think it's still Swiss. Is he really has to be? It's split on different sites. That's, this is the whole point of bringing up this conversation. I was like, I get it and I don't get it. And I don't, so what are, what are your, you said you wanted to counter me saying that he wasn't very good. What, what are your stats that you have to like sell us on mananga? I've been very negative on mananga. Change my from week 12 on, it was a basically a 50, 50 split, 52% of the attempts and targets were swift, 48% were mananga. So as close 50, 50 as we can get, in terms of, well, you can get 50, 50. That's the closest in terms of five plus yard gains, which is actually more predictive than the explosive stuff. Same exact rate of swift and second best in the entire NFL, 43% of his carries went for five plus yards. And depending on your site, you want to look at like yards after contact a lot of stuff. It was better on some sites. And then mananga was worse on others. Like it, my point is for a seventh round guy, he was pretty good to impressive to me. And when they gave him the opportunity, I know was the bingles, but like 30 carries is like a sick thing to do to his seventh round rookie Ben Johnson. And then down the stretch, he still saw what swift was swift was also gone. Yeah, I'm just saying, but like 30 carries for a seventh round rookie is not normal. It's happened once since 1991 and it was mananga. Like it's just, it just doesn't happen. So my point is bringing up is like, I think swift was way better. I agree. But mananga wasn't like some slub that like did not put together meaningful carries. And this team had the six most rushing yards the entire league. He was a huge part of that 783 yards for a rookie as a part time players is impressive. So I, I think he's a better in redraf flex and in dynasty. I'm scared. That's like where I'm landing. And I year from now, I agree. They will draft somebody really cool next year. And mananga will be like, Oh, yeah. Remember when he had that cool little moment? That's what that's my thought. Yeah, probably. I think he's a solid back who fits the scheme well, but isn't a near replaceable talent. That's how I put it. Yeah. For a seventh round dude, prep, we need him to be good for that. That alone, that alone matters. If you want to see all of our dynasty startup ranks, you could find them in the ultimate draft kit plus you can find them in the app if you're scrolling on the toilet and you're like, Hey, what's Jason's ranks on this player? As most people have thoughts, they can do that. So ultimate draft kit dot com. We will be back next week. Spoiler alert. We are doing a startup mock on the draft. So we'll see you there next week. Good bye. Thanks for listening to the fantasy footballers dynasty podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out the fantasy footballers dot com.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The Fantasy Footballer's Dynasty Podcast episode, recorded June 3rd, celebrates the release of the Ultimate Draft Kit (UDK), which includes real-time updates on trades and projections.
The hosts discuss Jalen Hurts' dynasty value, noting his rushing ability as a fantasy cheat code despite AJ Brown's departure, with mixed rankings (Jason has him at QB6, others QB1).
They debate whether Hurts is a buy window for championship contenders, given his age-28 season and potential offensive line turnover.
The show transitions to a Dynasty ADP price check game, highlighting how player values shift with news, using Rashee Rice and Josh Jacobs as examples.
The hosts express concerns about Rashee Rice's future value due to off-field issues and his expiring contract, which could hurt his fantasy production if he leaves Kansas City.
Summary:
The podcast opens with the hosts celebrating the launch of their Ultimate Draft Kit, emphasizing its dynamic updates, such as adjusting projections after AJ Brown's trade to the Rams and Miles Garrett's move. They highlight the kit's real-time nature, which sets it apart from static draft guides. The main discussion centers on Jalen Hurts' dynasty value.
Jason remains bullish, ranking him QB6, while others see him as a backend QB1. They argue that Hurts' rushing touchdowns and dual-threat ability make him undervalued, despite a down passing year. The departure of AJ Brown is seen as less concerning because the Eagles added new weapons, and Hurts has historically thrived with different coordinators.
However, they note a two-year window before age and offensive line decline could impact his production, making him a buy for teams in win-now mode. The conversation then shifts to Dynasty ADP volatility, using Rashee Rice as an example. His value has dropped due to off-field issues and an expiring contract, with fears he could become a mediocre asset if he leaves Kansas City's system.
The hosts acknowledge the difficulty of trading such players at fair value, as league mates may be hesitant to pay a premium. Overall, the episode blends draft kit promotion with strategic dynasty insights, emphasizing the importance of context and timing in player valuation.
FAQs
The UDK is a comprehensive fantasy football draft resource released on June 1st. It includes projections, videos, and live updates, such as adjusting for trades like AJ Brown's. You can access it at ultimate draft kit.com.
Losing AJ Brown is generally bad for a quarterback, but the Eagles added new weapons, and Hurts' rushing ability remains his fantasy cheat code. He's still seen as a strong QB1, though his dynasty value may be more short-term.
Jalen Hurts is ranked around QB6 to QB8 on most dynasty sites. He's often behind younger quarterbacks like Jackson Dart, but he's considered undervalued and a potential buy for championship windows.
Hurts is undervalued due to recency bias from a poor offensive season and a run-heavy defense-led team. However, his rushing touchdowns and ability to throw for 3,500+ yards make him a top fantasy scorer.
Concerns include the Eagles' offensive line turnover, his reliance on rushing as he ages, and whether he can transition to a prolific pocket passer. His value is strongest in the next two years.
DeVonta Smith is a wide receiver for the Eagles, and the show is bullish on his talent. With AJ Brown gone, he's expected to take on a bigger role as an alpha receiver.
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