DUP Crisis, Sinn Féin Poll Surge & Renew NI

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We're also gonna be looking at the more in common pool, which was released today. We're gonna be discussing its findings and what potential implications it means 'cause we are six months out from the assembly election. Then a new unit stink tank was launched this week. We're gonna be discussing what it hopes to achieve while it's being brought about with the finder of it, Ryan Hoey. So all that and more coming up on this edition of Stormin' Sources. Hello and welcome to the Stormin' Sources podcast. Will we take you inside politics across Northern Ireland? I'm Deb McCann also on the podcast this week by two regulars. We have Michael McCann and he was former special advisor to the SDLP from 2007 to 2016. We also have Tim Kerns. He was special advisor to DUP First Minister Peter Robinson. Jens, Halloween week, scary times and politics. So, well one other thing I've been asked to do this by my daughter, so I'd better do after I'm in trouble. Her friend is 18 years of age this week and she has a big fan of the podcast. She's called Abe and I'm not sure if they go to the same school or none of them might not. I think they might or they go to drama together. I'm not sure which, but anyway, Abe is 18 and she's a big fan of the podcast. And personally, my daughter said, "Oh, could you get like a signed photo of the three of you?" I said, "We're not doing that." But I will say, "Happy birthday on the podcast." So, happy birthday. Abe, you're 18 this week. - Abe, happy birthday and I hope you're doing something fun for your 18th birthday. Happy birthday. - Unmany happy returns. - There we go. That's a nice, that's a good deed done for today. But on the podcast today, we are looking at the continued fallout from John Cree, yes, they're increasing rumblings within the DUP as Cardinal Lockhart is not, now I buy herself and calling for the First Minister to be withdrawn, Diane Forsyth, Morris Bradley, have joined her this week. So the first two DEPMLAs have come out now and said that they, I believe, that Emma Little Pangelli should be withdrawn as Deputy First Minister in order to ice the First Minister, Michelle O'Neill. So we'll be talking about the fallout of that. We'll also be talking a bit about a new pool that has been released from Moron Common. Will it choose a Shin Fiann surge? But it also shows a collapse in support for one or two other parties. We'll be talking about the wider implications of that. So all that and more is coming up on this edition of Stormin Sources. Just a reminder, you can comment on anything you're hearing, zero travel, three, four, zero, four, six, five, zero seven members of support to Stormin, you'll stop an email, hello at storminsources.com. If you want your comment featured on our new extra time segment, yes. For those of you who love Stormin Sources, we know of extra time. Can you believe last week? And all people think I'm. They can go many outkicking tops of this. But just on YouTube alone, north of 20,000 on YouTube alone, last week. I think it's north of 30,000 of your tech, both podcasts. There we are. Thank you. Thank you to see you watching more. He pays more attention to it than me. Well, I was in the comments to pick out the questions for extra time. And if you want to be featured on it, do you leave us a comment? You could get featured on our extra time segment. After all, this is northern Ireland's most listened to political panel. So let's get into the podcast. No, Carla Lockhart, the rumblings of my Carla Lockhart have been getting lighter over the past few days. She resigned from the party officers last Thursday night. That is the decision making body within the Democratic Unionist party. And it led to a bit of an awkward interview for the party later, Gavin Robinson on BBC's The View. Last week, as it was just a nine, just before he went on. And there was a really catchy exchange between him and Jim Elster. Well, maybe get to that and be seconded by what that means for the industry. I had a front-life seat. From Rose State, I was right there. I was about to say this. Our own Timothy Karnes, who dresses so much better for Mark Rothers than he does for Mayor Michael. And also for the UTV on Tuesday's late this week, there we go. There we go. He's more relaxed with us. Well, I mean, Sunday politics was better. This week, I have to say, I don't know who was on it, but it was better. Well, anyway, you're working your three quarters up. You're a bit more gross. Eddie, could we get over the segment? Anyway, she has not been joined by two of her colleagues, Diane Forsyth, who is the DPMLA Forsyth Don. Not someone who would be considered a hardliner. Someone who would be considered a more part of the Gavin Robinson wing of the party. She declared earlier this week, we're recording all Wednesday night, that she now I believe that Michelle and Neil should be withdrawn as the Deputy First Minister. She did attend that big rally imported on on Saturday night. And today, Wednesday, she has been joined by our colleague from East London, Derry, more broadly, who is also, no, I call it for the DPD First Minister to be withdrawn. So we're asking, will any more night come out and ask for Emma Pangeli to be withdrawn as the Deputy First Minister? Or is this really the end of the road for the strategy? So let's kick it all first, Tim, your thoughts. Oh, more we are, it's been, let's just go back to the stark. 'Cause last week, I want to talk a little bit about unionist unity and supposed there are two unity conversations. Gavin doesn't have unity in his own party, number one. Never mind the wider unionist unity comes to be. You did have a front row seat. A awkward exchange between Gavin Robinson and Jim Elser in particular. And I John Burrows was in Taiwan so he wasn't in the studio. But it looked really, Tammy, how did those two even remotely come together for a campaign that starts six months from now? Well, I think there was a bit of a comms. Blunder, really. I don't know why the DUP, whoever agreed to it, thought it was a good idea for Gavin Robinson to be unequal footing with Jim Elser and with John Burrows. I mean, if I had been doing some comms advice for the DUP, I would have said, well, you interview Gavin and we'll come in early and do a pre-record with that. And then Jim and John can respond to that because Gavin's leader of the union has a meal, double the seats of what John Burrows has. And Tim, also, the seating arrangements were crazy. They had Gavin sitting on the top of the front and Jim Elser sitting behind him as always. You know, they were not beside each other, not facing each other. Like, it looked like, here's the case, we're gonna stab you in the back. Well, kind of say, well, come and sit on the seat. The table doesn't cut, but there's something that's going to look like, but sitting in the seating arrangements as well. So Gavin seemed to move his seat. I don't know why. At one point when John Burrows was speaking, I sent us a dividend Thursday night after the program. The floor manager or whatever he is came over to sort of move Gavin back in but Gavin didn't move any move himself back out. So I don't know, I don't know what the thought was on that or whatever, but the body language is all weird. But where he was sitting, it's a curved table. So he doesn't have a choice over that, but he had chosen to move his seat. The BBC floor manager tried to move him back at a point when John Burrows was speaking and he chose to move his seat. So I don't know what was going on. No, I think from a comms perspective, I don't know what on earth Gavin was doing, been put up. Jim Lester is one MLA and one MP. John Burrows is less than half of what but Gavin has. What you're doing is if you do a three way in that way is you're saying, we're equivalent. This is me and the two alternatives and that is not the case. Gavin is the leader of unionism. He should have done an interview. And if the other two smaller parties want to respond to that, then they can respond to that. That's what I would have done. If I was given comms advice to the DUP and I would have said, BBC. This is not happening. If that is not the way it is, this is the leader of unionism. Well, you know, that is the leader of unionism and the leader of unionism does, does his own interview. And so that, that was a strange comms to such a, like in the studio, it was also very strange. It was clearly very tense and there was a moment where so Mark Carothers gets up off his chair and he wanders over to the other side of the studio. And I, and people have, I've commented this, my wife commented in this as well as to what nurse is going on. So I do a big like this here, which I didn't, which I didn't think was visible because I thought the camera was tracking Mark, but it wasn't. It was on our table. I was actually looking at Gavin. I was trying to try to give a, a support of that was tough mate, but I think as I sailed in, in, in the, in the segment, you know, Gavin is a, as a good guy. He's a blooming nice bloke, I think, as well I said, and our, our story just for anyone to remember it broke literally about an hour before the view, the view is a life program. So literally by an hour before he just said, well, I didn't know when I found out about it. So in the BBC, you go to the front desk and they've got a new front desk. No, you've got to go through like airport security. It was when I was putting my, about to put my phone down on the airport security thing and the BBC front desk, and I, my phone buzzed up. And it's, it's sad, you know, Carothers resigned from the party officers. I tried to text Carla to say, but I couldn't get through to her. I mean, her phone was going crazy. And so Sanbring was the one she'd broken the story to. She was in the studio. So I didn't know, as from what I can ascertain Gavin knew a little bit before that. And I also, but before, before the program started. So I think all of that made it a very difficult conversation. And it didn't look good. It did not look good for the DUP because here's the problem of where the DUP has been at over the last few weeks. They've been on the defense. So they've been on the back foot. They have looked weak because they're on the back foot. And the DUP has been on the back foot for a long time. And Gavin can't get a brick to move to the front foot, unfortunately. And again, on Thursday night, it looked like you have two guys with a clear possession, albeit I think my advice to John Burroughs would be, if you can't do it in the studio and the other two are in the studio, let somebody else do it because it did not, the lesson for him is it doesn't work from a hotel in Thailand. It's better or Taiwan. It's better that you're in the studio. But that aside, the other two fellas had a very clear possession. And Gavin looked like he was caught nowhere. He was trying to write two or so. Somebody described it to me. I was talking to someone who would be fairly prominent in Union of Strategy. And they said to me, it almost looked at them like the DUP had woken up and thought, how can we handle something worse than how we handle the RSC border. Sorry about that. That's quite funny. And it is true because it's like it does feel like they have no possession. They have no choice. I'm told we're recording Wednesday. And I'm told there's a party officer's meeting on Thursday night and they're not going to get a handle of this and they're going to tell us what consequences are. And they're going to make some big statement after the party officer's tomorrow night. That's what I'm told. Well, it's about three weeks to leave. Four weeks to leave. If you're waiting four weeks to get your strategy, you're never getting off the back. This has been, I think, weak leadership from the DUP. And I think it's now going to be very difficult to get a handle in the school. So let's talk about some of the recent developments then that have happened because Gavin's position has deteriorated since then. We thought kind of because the narrative after Carlo went was that Carlos kind of freelance and she was on her own. But now that's actually proven not to be the case. So two DPM LA, some now broken ranks, Diane Forsyth is probably the more no worthy one. Just for the race and reason is she is not a hardliner. If you ever speak to Diane, she's quite reasonable. She's quite modest. She's quite most genuine. That's so quite reasonable, David. Including hard liners. I okay. So some are a bit many aren't I do a podcast with one so I can speak to that. Anyway, but Diane Forsyth, the new generation of DPM leadership, then this has not been followed by Morris Bradley. He's kind of one of the more old school and DUP peers. But if there's two of them and the DEP whilst they do have disagreements privately, very rarely do you see those publicly, very rarely do you see those public. I mean, you have to go back to Arning Foster and that planning Bill Rebellion were 12 MLAs abstained to go back to the last time you had kind of a number of public representatives in the part of entry party, speaking out against the leadership in this way. Are there more who said to come, Tim, from what you know? This has been very interesting actually because usually privately, if you speak to someone who is in the DUP or any political party, they'll give you a private view that they're not going to give publicly and usually at times like this was a bit of crisis. You'll speak to some folk and they'll be very candid privately with you. On this occasion, there have been a few people who have been quite candid privately with me, but it's not been the usual sort of situation and I don't get the sense, speaking to journalists, that people are spilling their guts to journalists either. So I kind of wondered the same last way. I knew there were people who agreed with Carla and I thought that was absolutely sure. People were speaking to me and saying, "We agree with Carla, but we're not going to say something public." Something changed on Saturday night. Now, I wasn't at the event on Saturday night, so I don't know what was being said there with the strength of feeling was, but something changed on Saturday night and some of the folk who were maybe quiet have started to get a little bit more vocal after Saturday night's events in Port of Dine. I don't think it went down very well, that Emma Little Pengelli tweeted a picture as if she was at the event and on the stage and that's certainly what it looked like when it turned out she wasn't. She was may have been out for dinner and he spelt fast. I don't know that's certainly what the Twitter rumors were and I think that went down badly. I think it did not go down well from some of the folk I've spoken to, the sermon that was put out on Facebook on Sunday night. There was a reflection on a publical passage, Sunday reflections or something hashtag. That did not go down well in certain quarters. I think some people then felt with the weekends events between the events in Port of Dine and then subsequently what's been said in social media by others that they couldn't mirror me and silent anymore. So if had Diane come out, we've had Morris come out, will there be others? I wonder a couple of people holding back with and for whatever this big night's was going to be after the party officers and then if it's weak, then I think we'll maybe see more coming out. Johnny Buckley for instance. Well there's others. I mean he's the only one. I mean, Johnny's been very quiet and as I said very much, he's gone silent. It's interesting Paul Geffen is the one out who has been the man. People say to me, it's Paul Geffen, the man rival for Gavin for leadership. Well you would know it because he's certainly not exploiting the crisis. He's been out four square back in the leader. Absolutely. The most vocal person, more vocal than Emma Lepengale. He's been the person who's been four square behind Gavin. That's been interesting to me as well because if there was any serious leadership challenge to Gavin, it would be probably coming from somewhere like Paul Geffen. That is clearly not the case. There is no threat to Gavin's leadership. People are annoyed. I think that's what sums up. Not how far does the annoyance go? Does it fester and does it grow? Or can Gavin get to a possession where he's on the front foot? Or is he always going to be in this defensive posture and only time's going to tell and that I think? And Michael obviously, you know Gavin has, and we've been talking about it for the last few weeks on this podcast. The fact that we're, I think we're now in week four. We're talking about some sort of deep internally and trick. The fact that we're on week four, I mean, it doesn't really auger well for Gavin's ability to get a hand up. Probably doesn't auger well most for Emma Lepengale because she's ultimately the one who is going to end up getting pulled out of her other post surely because that seems to be where we're at. I take fundamentally different view on all of this. All the way, the first thing you should say is Tim should actually get back in there and advise them from, from their point of view, the thing he is saying makes sense. But I think overall, Gavin's suffered enough. No, I think Gavin if he toughs it out, this thing will come back to. I think Carla has played every card she's got. And I think she's particularly with the, you know, the court decision we're recording on Wednesday, but the court decision just come out back and saying that the Secretary of State's intervention was lawful. So hopefully that will put the thing to bed to some extent. So Carla won't be on the backs of trucks shouting out a crowd. And this stuff is overblown. Echoing Ian Peasley with O'Neil must go. Echoing Margaret Thatcher with the ladies not for turning before she promptly turned around on all the videos I've said. I think Carla's overdone it. And Carla and Jamie and the rest of them are a strategy three zone. And I'm not saying that about Gavin Robinson. Gavin's caught a bit by the profound consequences because it's fair and the business is usual thing because it's very hard for him to show that it isn't business is usual. And it's very hard for him to come up with some profound consequences that aren't taken down Michelle O'Neil. But I think they'll have a maiden. I think you'll come up with something. Probably we'd be pathetic, like going to boycott north size bodies or something like that to show how angry they are. And that's fine. But you know, I think Carla has gone. Mars broadly has supported her. I thought Diane's remarks weren't 100% support. She just reminded people that she wanted to see the profound consequences. She didn't actually use the words O'Neil must go. So I think Carla will end up having to get back into the fold and this thing will all quiet and down. That's if Gavin has a good sense just to sit and whip for it to come back to him rather than try and do something dramatic that escalates things further and gives Carla new life. Okay. Ten. Yeah, thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I agree with Michael on everything. Said I don't know what the profound consequences are. I think we've been there before. Having my boycott north size bodies. I mean, I mean, if north size bodies were to close tomorrow, would anybody actually know us? I mean, they're so pathetic. And I'd say others haven't sat in the board of one. I mean, it might have been the biggest worst of four years of my life. I mean, it really didn't do it. It didn't do anything. But yeah, I think I think Michael's Michael's absolutely right. I mean, what can Gavin say? What can Gavin do? You know, does he say I'm a lot of pain? Gully doesn't meet the ambassador of Abu Dhabi do or whatever only comes to when he comes to Dinole and Ireland and those joint meetings can't happen. Who would know this? You know, is that profound consequences? I mean, are they going to say, well, you know, there can't be any joint meetings other than, you know, other than committee meetings and Michelle O'Neil doesn't seem to be out keen and going to those committee meetings anyway. So it's not much of a punishment for. So yeah, it's it's it's it's just I just don't know whether it's a good way out for Gavin on this. So the other reason I think Carla has probably reached the end of the road on this is as I'm well, we'd be coming to the opinion poll and so on. But it's Shinshi and actually ultimately end up being the complete beneficiaries of the whole drum cree escalation by Carla. She will have to look around at all her hard-hot supporters and say to them, yeah, we give them that boost. I give them that boost. And amongst you before, yeah, but so I just think though, I mean to just get back to the kind of the original question, it does seem like Gavin is going to be forced into Helena Mapanga Leon. I mean, it seems very hard to see how this to that any other way, because as Tim, as you pointed out, I mean, not not more on common poll, whilst it is a boost for Shinshi and Finn, it does actually dip dip into unionist sentiments around drum cree. And they're not we're Gavin's. That's that's the big issue for him. And the average job log punter who is voting for the DEP and as a unionist voter, a lot of them are sympathetic to Carla. I mean, we can have, I mean, whether you agree that strategically or not, just talking about where the sentiment is true. It's true. It's true. It's true. It doesn't know you're looking even weaker. Well, yeah, but every does now he looks weak. If he follows Gemma Luster and Emily leaves, he's weak. If he stays in and just you know, says, well, you're going to do meetings, he's weak. Somebody suggested to me a dare to go that this is where I didn't say the budgets today and looks very much like there's going to be about 500 million of consequentials. That gives the billion that's needed for public sector pay. The big fear that the DUP have is they pull them out, there's no budget, public sector workers, teachers, etc. Don't get their money. The DUP's blame for that. So tonight is an opportunity to get the extra 500 million in, get the 500 million of treasure as pro partners every year in. He's got the billion quid that he needs, pay the people the money that the road and then pull them out and then he can't be blamed for public sector workers. No, if that's a strategy, you know, clever enough, one of the if that turns out to be what they do, but I don't know that there's that level of strategic thinking. So yeah, I mean, it's just, yeah, I think Gavin is definitely boxed in the corner, but we'll wait and see what happens, but I think Carla's position within the party. I mean, now she does have some allies. Well, the thing is, you know, we're going to come on the polling in a second. The polling pretty much says what I felt the position was. Union was pretty divided and it's almost 50/50. And you're in the, within the DUP, it's 53, pull them out. You know, and then there's a few don't knows and 30 odd percent stay in. So, I mean, you know, unionism, I think is completely split down the middle and then shocking ways. There's some people who I thought were to you, V, you know, down the line, you've said to me, oh, can't pull them out over this. Got to make no other mark. There's people I thought actually pull the lines. You're sending me low on the water. Got to get them out. No, they were lawyers. So maybe they're, their views slightly different and that they've got a higher view of the real law. I don't know, but I just don't feel I feel like we're not in a very, in a position where they're very clear fault lines on this. I like that's a problem for Gavin as well. Yeah. Well, like, like I say, we'll, we'll wait and see what happens. I mean, it could be a care storm or tight moment. You remember back in May, after the locals, care storm. I came out with this strategy. It was going to turn around and then labor MPs looked out and I agree with you, by the way, his leadership storm. The difference between care storm and Gavin is there were people in the party who wanted to take him down. There's no one who wants his job, not one person wants his job. But, but that was, but that was the point of just, just the echo point that you said that was the point where labor MPs just looked at what he was proposing and just went, actually, do you know what? Actually, wait, this isn't enough. So that may be where MLA's go. Actually, do you know what? That's just get him out. We just need to, we need to definitely that, but it's definitely not. We're here. Some of that led to him go on on the part I'm coming in for Gavin. Gavin will still be leader, but I agree with you and might lead to, you know, not an avalanche, but five or six other MLA's coming out here on their threat, I think, from the TUV. And it would be worried about that threat from the TUV. That's the other dynamic. But look, let's get into the more in common poll, which was published. It was published today. Obviously, you're listening to this today, a day after. So let's talk a little bit about it. I mean, it kind of just confirms what we were kind of talking about. I really shouldn't faint at 30% their best poll polling rating in Northern Ireland since August of 2024. The DEP are on 18. That's actually not much change for the DEP. I've been kind of trending around that. In fact, actually, I think after the, with the weeks they've had the day that this polling took place in October, the DEP probably would be pretty happy with when you consider that would have factored in Drum Cray, the Jeffrey Donaldson stuff as well. 18%. I think the DEP probably would would be happy with that. They're also ahead of the old genius. They're on 13. The TUV are on 11. And this for me is the story of it. Alliance are on 9%. SDLP on 9% as well. Let's talk just a little bit about this. That's Alliance's worst poll rating since 2018. By the way, they've not been single fingers since 2018. The SDLP 9%, that means they haven't moved at all from the, for any interesting now, that corresponds with the University Liverpool poll rating as well. They had the SDLP in single. It's only Lisa talk is hot them up at 13. Other polls have had the SDLP in single figures as well. So let's talk a little bit about this then. I mean, kind of what we expected. But I mean, a 12-point lead for Sinn Fein over the DEP. They were average in six. That's right. That's right the year. Michael, your thoughts on what you on what you're at. Well, obviously this is the first poll we've seen since from Cree. On the nationalist emotion over last house, being absorbed in terms of voting intentions and favorite sentience. We've seen a hike for them. The fact that the SDLP has held at the percentage it was in the previous more in common poll shows that they've actually done all right. I think that they do have that other two or three percent in the bank. I think the work they've done in the assembly with Matthew Tull, the leadership of Claire Hanna and all her town hall meetings has to account for something. And I think it's in the bank and I think that will come back to them. If you look at it very superficially, you could say, you should think of taking the byte out of the SDLP, the SDLP have taken a byte out of the alliance party. And that probably is something close to the drum Cree effect. But the remarkable thing about it all is that and it doesn't really matter kind of the three unionist parties are split this way or that way and you can add a percentage or two to either of them. It shows the DUP haven't collapsed. Maybe Carla has actually saved the DUP a few votes, but you know, perversely that metagon to TUV and that kind of analysis. But overall, I think the big story is the Sinn Fein surge gifted to them by Carla and Jamie and co and the squeeze of the alliance party and you wouldn't expect that to because the two communities, this is a polarizing issue and the metal usually gets squeezed when people get emotional. Tim, your thoughts before we dig into some more of it, just did the overall. No, we're both like Sinn Fein needed to get 29 percent was not what they got in the last time. Yeah, so Sinn Fein needed a strategy to push up to 20 percent. The strategy before drum Cree was pretty clear. Get the big headers back, try to create a smoke strain around that. Get GAA players and I think I heard even rumors that they're trying to get football players and I don't know that that's going to happen. You know, so it was a big strategy of get people who look serious, who look big headers and there's no point in us having nobody's coming out. to replace people on the assembly ticket. And therefore, if we can do that, that will maybe mask for non-performance over the last four or five years. That was shouldn't be in strategy. And then this drum cree thing came along and they've picked up the four or five percent that they were hoping to pick up to be in a strong position and going in the next election. For the DUP, I think they'll look at this and I'll say, look, our strategy was always get the 20 and a half percent. Well, keep most of our seats. If not all of them, if we do that, we might pick up Westbound fast outside chance of picking up North Antrum, although I don't believe that that does really within in their grasp. But, you know, we have an outside chance of coming back with one extra seat and what we have we hold. If we can get to that sort of a high 20.9, 21%, that's the goal. So if I was the DUP, look at this and say, well, look, drum crees, not affected us in the way that people have said it would. We're sitting around here at 10%, the 21% goal is still within our grasp. Can we eat and that to you, Vivo? No, we need another pool to say, is that to you Vivo solid? Or is it like 2022 where it's a bit flaky? I might come back to the DUP. That's what the DUP are better at. It's not so that it is soft and flaky. The TUV seemed to think our stance is solid. Our stance is secure. And therefore that that folks are going to stay with us. Yeah, I mean, one of the interesting things, I think you're right on on where the parties kind of see themselves. I think one of the interesting things is that for for Sinn Fein in particular, because they were trending down across a number of pools, so you can't just look at one bike. We lose a talk, we'll be out in November. In the Belfast Telegraph, and it will be interesting to see how much this maps. The other pools, but Sinn Fein at 30% with a lands done at nine, because remember the bottle this time for Sinn Fein isn't the STLP. It's the Alliance Party. You look at all the gains they want to make and any potential gains. They're all at the expense of the Alliance Party. We wonder to it the expense the STLP, but the vast bulk at the expense of the Alliance Party. If a lands you're done at nine, and Sinn Fein are up at 30, that's a 21 point up. And I don't care, high preference friend of you are, and the Alliance certainly are transfer friendly. If Sinn Fein are on average, 21 points ahead, they are going to do some serious damage to the Alliance Party, upper ban, gone, site down, gone, north Belfast, a Stringford. You can go on and on and on. There are a number of seats that are a land seat that will tumble. If that's the gap. Why are the Alliance Party at night percent? That's what I was going to put back to you. It is just one pool. Why do you think they're trending? What we can say is Alliance or Trending died. So the question then is why are Alliance Trending died? They have it. Oh, okay. It's not extra time cheesy. You're taking over the you're you're the suffologist. I think that there were a couple of things happening. I agree with Michael that, you know, Alliance, and we saw Owen Tannison, he has just struggled to get any position that meets any any kind of coherence. It really, really is hard on an emotive issue and they get a bit squeezed. However, when the executive is in a dysfunctional state, Alliance had been the beneficiaries up for 2017, 2022. Alliance's vote did tick up because of the demand batter people. The people who were just fed up on annoyed and pissed off with our with our circumstances, but because of the answer, and I saw him better than the executive, they can't really do that to the same extent. And I think they're I think they're getting a hammer from both sides. I also think that they are starting to develop a leadership problem. And that's because for the very simple reason Naomi is 10 years, David Ford stepped down 10 years ago, this month, 10 years going October, and Naomi has been there. Remember, Naomi was very high profile deputy leader for years before that. So, Naomi's been an active frontline politics like as a visible figure. You'll deputy leaders quite often. People have no idea they are, but we all knew who Naomi was, right? We all knew who she was. That's 15 years. Why are people tired of her wire? Why are people tired of her? 15 years. Because 10 leader for 10, a high profile deputy for the previous four or five years before that, you know, people get sick of you. I mean, I should tell that she's a bit bored because you never really hear from her anymore. She won, she won that Westminster seat in 2010, right? She was high profile. She was basically a co-leader with David Ford for those five years. Yes, she did take a bit of a sabbatical between not in the 2016 assembly action. David Ford stands down, and she's been, you know, people with the best one, Michelle, Naomi is 10 years next year as the Northern leader. This will happen to Michelle at some point. It happened to Arlene Foster, it happened to Peter Robinson. People get sick of you after a while. They just get sick of you after a while. I'm not sure if it happened to Peter Robinson, like Peter Robinson stepped down and it was still, it was still popping up. Yeah, but Tim, but Tim, I was at the park out in the hotel the night he handed over to Arlene. And there was, you could feel it. There was in 2015 a rasslessness starting to not that there was an immediate challenge, but there was a rasslessness building up around around Peter. And he had been there for a long time, Tim. And I think you may be white-washing history there. I'm not saying he's just a challenge, but certainly there was a relief when Arlene Foster came in. You don't hear much from Naomi. I mean, Naomi used to be, there's very, very vocal. She'd be the person on the Nolan show. She would be front and center. It was like Naomi's party. And she's clearly taking a massive step back from that. No, of course, she's surrounded by very talented MLAs and a very talented MP. That's absolutely clear about that, who are very good on the media and her media savvy. And maybe she didn't have that 10 years ago. But why has Naomi taken this massive step back? Is it because she got talented MLAs and a talented MP, or is this a conscious decision on her part that she's tired? I don't know. I don't think it's all on Naomi. You know, it's the bean engulfment that found it very tough. They were promising change. It doesn't have to be this way. Things can be better. And there's had two ministerial positions and really very little to show for their time. That is all, of course, pre-rom Creek. So that's why they were trending down gradually. And obviously less, a less act of Naomi as well. But this is our drum cree post drum cree pole. And they've gone down further simply by the fact that drum cree is about emotion. The two sides line up emotionally against each other and the middle they never get squeezed. I mean, Owen Tennyson was writing about drum their own issue and press statements doing that videos. But it's position on this with largely irrelevant. You know, it was all about Republicans and, you know, Hardline Unionists. And I think this is not a grip pole for Jerry Carroll. And that's not a grip pole for the green party either. No, it's not. No, no, no. And they're and they're in Diff's tree. What about the old students? Party mean John Burroughs, 13% I mean, not terrible, not fantastic either. It deserves a bit more because he had a very good drum cree. In fact, when you burrow further into the more uncommon pole, not just the party voting intention. The one solution that both Unionists and nationalists have pulled and said they could accept was the one that he first offered, which was the Orange Order Simply Bank, the legal victory and then decide not to exercise their legal right to walk. I think that might have been said by me and this podcast for us. And Burroughs got it from him. But anyway, Burroughs said that. And that's why he hasn't made it. Well, he said it and it turns out the polling shows that that's what people could live with. I don't know, but like I said, I said this at the time that Northern Ireland voters lost. I applauded. I John conducted himself during drum cree. Eunice, the Eunice election has not always rewarded nuance. But I do, but I do think in the past, a nuanced position like that would get hammered and you know, and he's held his own. And I think that's about it. When the noise is still your left and right to hold your own, I think it's not a bad place for all seniors later. I mean, look, look, context is important here. If say that was repeated out in assembly action, he would be the undisfeated leader of the opposition. If he went into opposite, he would be on question. It wouldn't be alliance. It wouldn't be the SDLP. He would have the most seats on the most votes. He would be the leader of the opposition. Michael, want to ask, SDLP at 9%. I mean, that's not great though. Like that's they got 9% of the last assembly. Yeah, I think in any opinion poll, that would find 9% disappointing. But this is a unique opinion poll post drumcree. They have been squeezed a little bit drumcree because the credit has gone to Shinfee and for blocking the road and standing in solidarity with the guvary road residents more than it has with the SDLP who held pretty much the same few, but weren't as visual and visible and tangible on it. I'm told by somebody who was there that some of the shinfee and leaders arrived and they all decided to lock arms. There's nobody in front of the black. There wasn't even the police in front of them or anything. There weren't cameras, yeah. In other words, they weren't, yes, they weren't blocking anybody. They just did it for the photographers. But it really didn't look good for the SDLP. I don't think to be following Shinfee in. No, we thought there were more. I mean, wait. No, it's also known for part from the I think, you know, the STLP people were there to show their support, but they weren't there on the road literally blocking the road. I mean, it's a nice thing. I think Claire ceded the whole drum-create response to Carl White. No, Carl, I think did a very good job. I'm not criticising Carl Law. She should have been the one doing that job, not Carl White. And they ceded their entire response to the Belfast City Councilor. No, no disrespect to Carl, I think he did a very good job. Well, that's because Carl has- That's the STLP Councilor who is unique inside into the work. That doesn't matter if it's commission, not it's my car. That doesn't matter, doesn't matter. Carl, tell me, I'm the leader, tell me the unique possession, and then I can go on the media and talk about it. I mean, that's how these things work. I think it was, I think it was a very, again, very pure communication strategy. No, I think Claire probably didn't want that right. Well, if she didn't have that role, the other answer to David's question, of course, is that I think the STLP have made some progress. And I think they have banked a car to 100% that emotionally left them and will return to them. Well, if I had been advising the STLP, I would have had Carl White maybe done an article, a very technical article on the Irish news, and then have Claire Hanna or Matthew Toul, as the front of it. I think, I think communication wise, it was a bad story. No, I do agree. I think Carl made a very intelligent contribution to the whole debate. And I won't do many harm in relation to his own ambition to North Belfast. Yes, but if your ambitions are one on a Belfast study council, say North Belfast, Michael, the party's part of the North Belfast assembly ship. If that be a bit, you have a Michael, if that is so, the election results are repeated, it'll be shenfin. There's more chance of me when I'm a seat in North Belfast and run them. It'll be interesting to see me, but I mean, you're right, Michael, it is one poll. We are six months ahead. There's still a lot of water to flow under the bridge. So I mean, this is not, I mean, we shouldn't be talking about like, this is a poll six days. I'm not six months. So I do understand. But a long way to go. A long way, a long way to go, I think the SDLP did have to back the resonance, because they would have got absolutely roasted, but the last is just a tactical decision. The SDLP absolutely back the resonance. But I don't know any, no, I'm not questioning the SDLP. Do them out. That was the right thing to do. What I am questioning is how they did that and they can see the point pitch. No, no, well, well, well, well, well, well, we'll wait and see. But I do think that reading that poll, a lot of SDLP is probably have to be pulling their heart out going, what do we need to do? I remember, I remember sent with an SDLP here at the start of 2022, and we ran for a beer. This is when the polls were starting to tick down for the SDLP. And it was like, oh, this is getting away from us. Here, Shen Fener on the way back in 2022. And they were like, they just said to me, David, what more do we need to do? Well, I can tell you wrong. I can tell you're a male, I can tell you're a male. So, well, you've got the most popular politician in Northern Ireland, maybe user, well, I don't have to do the finger outside Trump's tower. You know, that, you know, it'd be better off that she was on the airwaves in Northern Ireland. Well, this was five years ago now, so this is 2020. So listen, the emotion will subside. And I'm confident, SDLP, we'll, we'll get some people back. Well, well, Joe, there's a lot to talk about in two weeks. Let's, let's come around. I am not confident, but what I will say is this. If I was the SDLP, I would look at it. And I would look at the whole genius party, who have a popular, competent leader who has, who has met inroads into the bigger parties, a bigger party. You have the most popular, competent leader who's excellent in the media. Why is she not on that? Why is she not hammering out? Come on, that's what you need to do. Yeah, you met that point, yeah. The point about John Baruch is, he's, he's tapping away against the party that's falling apart. That is, that hasn't done anything right for about two years. And, uh, where, uh, Karahana is rolling against the party that has united nationals behind an emotional cause. And her party that, a party that, um, that has been given a new relation life. And her, well, her and Matthew will turn into flip roles as well. She needs me in this assembly. You can, you know, it's very difficult to lead from Westminster. But anyway, our time's up. Well, look, well, look anyway. We'll, we'll, I want to have a rant against the media again. Maybe with the next week. We're going to come, come back extra time. You will be brought up against the media. We can, we want to hear, you want to hear Michael's rant against the, we can, we say, we can get back in, that's come on, that's come on, that's come on. But we still have more storm sources to come. So coming up after the break, we're going to be sticking with the constitutional question. You may have noticed that a new think tank was launched this week. We're new and I, and we're talking with one of the finders of it. Ryan Hoey about why he's done it and what can we expect from it? So all out of more coming up on storm and sources. This episode of storm and sources is brought to you by Cozy Solar, part of the Cozy Grid. With electricity bills being what they are, solar panels are worth looking into. If you want to reduce how much you spend on energy generating your own electricity at home, means you can use less from the grid and lower your bills. How much you see of depends on your household, how much energy you use. But it's worth finding out what solar could do for you. Cozy Solar is part of the Cozy Group. With over 15 years in business and more than 25,000 home improvement installations nationwide, based in County Dine, they make guessing solar panels fit it straightforward with most installations completed within a day. For out of peace of mind, hands you batteries and inverters come with a 12-year guarantee, while solar panels have a 25-year guarantee. And here's something worth keeping in mind when choosing your installer. Not all installers are MCS certified. The Cozy Solar is, so you know you're in safe hands. And for storm sources listeners, there's 500 pounds of your solar installation. Just quote "Stormant" when you first inquire with Cozy Solar. To find out more, make an inquiry to that. This episode of "Stormant Sources" is brought to you by Cozy Solar, part of the Cozy Group. It's fair to say that the media often presents our country as more divided than ever before. "Partisanship" has intensified, at least among people who are post-sume politics frequently. But in the real world, every day, Republicans and Democrats are discussing and debating and comparing ideas in Washington and across the country. Not for the sake of political point scoring, but because policymakers see a whole lot of issues that still need to be addressed. A lot of Americans, particularly the voters who tip our elections, don't necessarily consume a ton of political messaging. And they may not align with either party all that passionately. The focus of our podcast is this. Ideas. Common ground. The things that American democracy was founded on. And still requires. Welcome to the DC Sources podcast, taking you inside politics in Washington and the US government. I'm Eli Stokeles. It was a White House reporter for a long time in Washington, and now I'm a principal at in variant of Washington Consulting firm. I'm joined by Mara Gillespie, founder of Bluestack Strategies. Mara's worked for Speaker John Boehner, and was communications director and deputy chief of staff, performer, Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger. Not everyone can be dialed in on everything. I think that's part of what we want to do here is to provide information in a way that not only takes into account our experience, our collective experience, but shares maybe some pieces of information that people aren't hearing in their, you know, drive to work or drive to do school drop-off or whatever it may be, because it's exhausting. And it's a lot of information. It's a lot going on all at once. Megan Hayes, who has served in various roles under Joe Biden, including as the special assistant to the president and director of message planning at the White House. This notion that everything is so, so black and white, I think is not where we're at as a country. And I, like, whether it's the ideological, you're too far-left or you're the DSA of the democratic party or if you're too progressive. I just don't think that people think that way. I think people want lower gas prices. I think they want to be able to afford food. I think they want to be able to decide between feeding their kids and being able to have health care for them. And I think that that's what we're missing here. Everyone knows November. That's the midterms here in the U.S. And we're starting our podcast now so you can follow all these stories, the campaign stories, the challenges, candidates are facing. We'll speak honestly and respectfully. We'll listen to people from across the political spectrum, people who some of us will agree with, maybe all of us will agree with, and some that none of us will agree with. But that's part of what matters here is bringing people into the conversation. There are a lot of areas where we see broad bipartisan agreement. So welcome to DC sources. Welcome to DC sources. Okay, welcome back to the storm and sources podcast. Now onto our second topic today. You may have noticed it's been pecked up quite a bit across the media that there is a new think tank on the scene. The new AI is seeking to promote Northern Ireland and its place within the United Kingdom. So we thought it would be good to get one of the founders on the podcast today to talk about, or to talk about what is the argument to be made for keeping Northern Ireland within the United Kingdom. So we are delighted to be joined by Ryan Hoey. Ryan is one of the finders of the new Think Tank. Ryan, you're very welcome to Stormin's Horses. Thanks a lot. Thanks so much for coming. Now, full disclosure. I have already spoken to you and your colleagues. You guys reached out to Tim and myself, and I had a good chat with you at the DUP conference, and you kind of walked me through. But for people who maybe are just coming across, renew you and I. Give us the elevator pitch. What's the rationale? What's the seeking to achieve? Yeah, so, well, we just think that the. There was a sort of gap in the market for an organisation that's going to make a positive case for Northern Ireland. And it really focuses on the sort of bread and butter issues that people really care about. And so it was a group of us who sort of met at university and sort of were thinking about what is the sort of long-term strategic thinking happening within Unism. How are we going to sell Northern Ireland's place within the UK? And we thought that there wasn't really an organisation that was solely sort of focused on doing that, or at least not in the way that we would hope to be doing it. So we decided why not set up our own organisation. So it's probably been about a year's worth of work behind the scenes just putting together all the different things around the website, the messaging, the report that we're going to be putting out in November. And yeah, so we've just launched it a week and a half ago. And I think we've been fairly blown away by the interest in it. Well, I wanted to just talk a little bit about that because obviously, whenever you talk about the constitutional issue, I know for my own sense, you can get a bit of blowback on it. Naturally, it's in a motivation, people do care about it. And there are a lot of people who kind of shrug their shoulders out and in Northern Ireland. And I want to just deal with that first, because you kind of seem to be pitching at the Mia kind of voter, the kind of Mia kind of person who, whilst I think they're talked about a lot, I don't think both sides of the debate, like people like maybe Michael, myself for a 10, who really do have to find these out. I think they're talked about a lot, but not a lot of materials geared toward them. You seem to be gearing your material than materials that are read anyway. Gearing it toward that demographic. Am I wrong on that? No, you're absolutely right. Because, you know, I mean, we've recognized that Northern Ireland today is no longer a place defined by two communities or a majority and a minority. You're now in a place where you've got two sort of significant pluralities, really. And then you've got this group in the middle that don't necessarily see themselves as either unionist or nationalist. Most of those people at the polling shows are pro union minded, but they're not really focused on the, you know, the cultural issues as much, maybe they're the sort of bread and butter unionist, as I said. And also the sort of people I think we've seen in the last decade, whether it's through Trump in the United States or Brexit, that people are signaling dissatisfaction with the status quo. And now as the default option in the status quo option, that I think presents a bit of a, we have a challenge to the pro union argument. So we're not going to come along and say that everything in Northern Ireland is perfect. I mean, every society has its problems. And we're not going to deny that. We are going to talk up the huge benefits that we see and some of the real key strengths that Northern Ireland has with the lower cost of living with sort of key growth sectors with the society that we have today. But we're also wanting to come along and offer sort of practical solutions to the problems that people have. And we really do think that by making those sorts of arguments, we will appeal to that group of the population. It kind of comes back to what the Better Together campaign argued in Scotland, which is around faster, safer, better change. And that's really the argument that we're going to put across that rather than some big constitutional upheaval, you can have change on some of the key policy issues, or the areas where people are dissatisfied whether it's waiting less, whether it's government here not being as effective as it could. You can have change without upending the constitutional-- Right, I just want to unpack a little bit of that because kind of the quiet bit that isn't really being said here is the word kind of unionist or putting that up. And I'm intrigued by that. I'm intrigued by that because I think that one of the things that I find intriguing about your approach is that it seems to be almost a repetition against what the pro-union parties. And there is a difference-- we talked about this in this podcast before-- there's a difference between referendum unionism and political unionism for one to a better term. I mean, is this really being borne out of the fact that the pro-union parties, like I'm thinking, D-E-P-T-E-V-N-E-E-P, is that because do you think they're not maybe selling the union as effectively? As they possibly coach, or is that-- or it's as so busy, are you maybe-- is maybe what you're doing a repetition of the approach that they've taken? No, I don't think so. I think that we're complementary to the political parties here. You know, we're a different organization. It's interesting that since we launched and lots of comments on the social media platforms saying, "Is this a new unionist political party?" People, I don't think, necessarily, got the concept immediately of what a think tank is. Because I mean, you go to London, and you've got lots of think tanks that may be aligned to different ideological perspectives that sit alongside political parties. Whereas we don't have as much of that here, and I think we really want to bring that here. So, you know, political unionism has a purpose, and it has, you know, an electoral base that it has to appeal to, et cetera, et cetera. We're filling a different purpose and we're sort of complementary to that. You know, we can make arguments that are, you know, sort of that we appeal to a different section of the population. Okay. And obviously, I mean, Tim bought it up first. I wasn't really going to go there, but I will go there. Now, obviously, you're quite young. Now, unionism is not renowned for being a very youthful movement. So I think that's probably a caricature to be a caricature. But I think it is, it's renowned. Younger people, we're talking about polls. Back in 1998, when all those young lawyers were joined and I think we were called the bitty barters. But younger people, younger voters, and a lot of surveys and polls are showing this. Most of them are skewing towards our unity. They're not skewing toward the union. And whether they stay that way, I appreciate it is a different, is a different bit. So I have to pose the question to you, Ryan. Why you not going with the, going with the cry? I'm not young anymore. I can't say that. Michael is definitely not young anymore. But why are you not coming over and joining us? Why are you not coming over and seeing what a lot of younger people your age are doing and are thinking with our signification? What is it for you that makes you not go along with that trend? Well, I'm not a very idealistic person, David. I'm someone who likes to see the details and unfortunately for the other side, well, maybe fortunately for us, the other side really hasn't set out the details of what. You know, I mean, it is very much a, you know, sort of, we will have a blank sheet of paper and everything will be great and X, Y and Z. So, you know, I mean, I also, I'm a from the heart unionist. You know, I've said here that we want to make the case to people who are practical bread and butter issue unionists. But I'm also from the heart unionist, I don't think it's, you know, there's any sense in denying that. But I also think that as I've said, we can make arguments that are on the sort of practical issues around the cost of living around the society we want to see in Northern Ireland. So, yeah, I don't think that the other side, I mean, people have been comparing us to as the unionist equivalent of Ireland's future and I don't want to, I don't think that we are. I think we're offering something different. We want to do our own thing and not be defined. Well, hi, how are you different from Ireland's future? Because that's, well, some supportive Irish invocation, I'm not part of our future, but how are you going to be different from what they're all? Because we've had a few unionists because we've had what is it? Is it together UK? Give me right on these Tim, if you know, together UK. And then there was another, was it, there was another one for Northern Ireland? I'm not critical of them because I think we're for play for anyone who isn't doing it. I do think that's a fair question, David. We have had a lot of these, these dawns before. What's going to make you stand out? Yeah. So, just kind of as I was saying, like on the end of the future, one, I don't want to sort of attack them, but they've had, they've had these conversations and events that have gone on for years now, what, five years. And it seems to be, it seems to me that they've just been talking to the choir. And I don't think that they've, you know, made one, like what we're once it's doing, maybe this answers Tim's question as well, is have really serious research or policy work. that we have got. we've assembled a group of people who have a particular set of skills that we can bring to this that will be looking at all of the key policy issues that are relevant to the future success of Northern Ireland and will put out ideas and research. In terms of Ireland's future, they've done lots of events but have they produced lots of serious thinking? They keep on saying the Irish government needs to come up with a plan. Why don't they come up with their own plan and detail it and then actually do it that way? So I think that's kind of what distinguishes us. We are going to be, we'll be putting out this paper in November. This is our first report, this sort of more big picture. And then once we get into the next assembly mandate, we will be looking through each government department, each of these sort of key policy issues and putting out thinking and proposals to sort of encourage the debate beyond just the constitutional question as well. Our ambitions are broader than that. Well, no, it's just, I was interested just, I'd look through your website. What seemed to me to be something you were focused on? I think this has been a deficiency in selling the union actually, is selling story. So, you know, unionism has been very bad at creating a narrative and selling that narrative. It's kind of always defensive, it's always back foot. It's always well, of course, we're just going to be productive. Of course, you know, rather than saying, this, this, this is the heart message. So long when you've said, when you've been touched on with David, there has been about the head message. And I think that's important too. But how are you going to address that heart? How are you going to address the story? How are you coming narrative? Because I think it's something unionist politics has really failed out for 25 years now. Yeah. So I think we put out our sort of launch film that sort of went through some of the messaging around the story, around the narrative that we want to build. Some, there was some criticism of it for using AI to put it together. But we don't, as I said to William Crowley on talk by yesterday, we don't have a big funding behind us. So that was the reason for that. But if you look at that, it really takes you on a journey in terms of where, you know, we start off with how North Netherlands today is a place transformed. It is a place that where people live together within a settlement that respects difference. It then sort of pivots. And it goes to talk about, you know, the problems that we have around instability, the lack of confidence and the crisis of confidence. So that's created. And then sort of goes through to the role that we want to play in that, but also then the vision for the future about how we can create a better North Netherlands. So yeah, I think that the, I mean, I work in communications for my day job. So I'm very keen to, I understand that you need to have a broad story and a narrative to go along with the actual practical policy details. Yeah, because there's a line that really stood out. I think it was in the document that you wrote. The truth is, North Netherlands is the second quarter of the century. The stronger economic foundations than many people realize. We have a lower cost of learning the rest of the UK. Then you go on further down to saying, you know, with higher wage growth. A lot of the stuff peaked Charlotte and Lee Reynolds were done, and I obviously with Lee gone a new role and Pete not able to continue that on. There's been a real gap, I think, within the unionism of building that narrative story. And, you know, I really like that because I think there is a narrative that are in the future. You know, we can say it's all, you know, blue sky thinking and black pieces of paper, but they have put a narrative forward, which I don't think is a fair narrative, that the Republic of Ireland is alone, flowing with milk and hummai. Google has panned everybody hundreds and thousands of pies. Your wages will be 15 times high area. Health outcomes will be better. And this, this place is a dead end where you're just going to have wage growth wages that are going to die and die. Cost of them that's going to go up and up. And that's actually not the true picture. And, you know, and you've captured that there. So, so how do we, how do we reverse that narrative? So how are you going to, you know, because I agree with you, you're selling the right story, you're selling the right things. So what's the next step? How do we, how do we shift? What, frankly, as a wrong narrative that Ireland's future and David McCann would be putting forward and to what is what is the, what is the real narrative of actually economically? We are better off within the union. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a mixture of different things, really. But I think the key, the key point is that you've got to be able to, let's say, engage in the, in the conversation, well, they can engage in, in our conversation about how we make North Ireland better and it's played, and the security is placed within the United Kingdom. You know, I think that we need organisations like this and this is really why we thought let's set it up because there is a sort of gap there. You know, if you have a sort of narrative that's being put out in the media constantly, people just start to believe it and accept it because that's all that they've heard. So you need, you know, people able to come along and actually, you know, talk about either correct, but well, both correct where things are wrong on the other side, but also, you know, sell our own story and I don't think that we've done enough of that. I think there's been a hesitance really to talk up and sell this story about it. Why do you think that is? Why do you think there's been a hesitance? And I agree with you. And I, I, you see, argue this until I was blue in the face of mentioned Lee Reynolds. When we both worked in the DUP, we got overruled constantly, we would say the campaign has to be a narrative. Unionism's most successful campaign was in 2003 when the DUP, it's time for a fair deal. Over took, the else unionist party for the first time and that was a campaign based entirely on narrative. It was entirely on story. The story was it's time for a fair deal. There's a better deal and here is the better deal. Here's a better for education. Here has better for the economy. Here is going to be better for you. And unionism has not done nothing. An election campaign for the last 23 years has been stopped in vain. It's been a negative campaign. So, so why do you think it is? Why do you think it is for 23 years? Unionism has not told that better story where we've simply just said, you know what that lad in? I don't know. I will want to say to others why it is that they've done what they've done. I think there's maybe a bit of a crisis, a confidence and a council of despair out there about unionism. You've seen political unionism over the last decade sort of decline relative to where it was previously. Even though as we both know, constitutional unionism is much broader than that and there is still, I think it's something like 58-42 in terms of some of the polling that Pete's been talking about. But I think people have sinned out those sins in vain take over as First Minister and thought that there is, you know, we're on the, they've sort of brought into the inevitability argument, I think. And there's the idea that if you just, if you talk about these things that you are speeding up that or whatever words, you know, I don't think it's inevitable at all. And I think that there are lots of key strengths of Northern Ireland and I mean, you know, as you can tell by accident, I'm from England. And there's a reason I chose to say here, there's a reason I came to Northern Ireland in the first place because it's a great place to, with great people, with, you know, a lower cost of living, with all those sorts of things. And I think there's, you know, you should be positive about Northern Ireland. So, yeah, I think the, maybe the, yeah, people have just not been, I've probably lost confidence in it. So I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think unionism has lost confidence and we see that, talk about that in the first segment in this podcast. The, the, the DUP have clearly lost confidence and the DUP are clear on the defensive. So, well, well, just for a kick to Michael, because of all Tim's spiel there, like, I mean, the reason why things are higher, have higher costs in the Republic is because their economic performance has been better than Northern Ireland's in the last 25, I'm quite just not in dispute, by the way. But no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, point is there's a narrative put this, I mean, a lot of it, a lot of it, a lot of it, and some of your, some of your, some of your, but, Tim, a lot of it, this is a shuttle, a lot of it, I don't, I don't, I don't just send that to send that's hard on this futures now. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, that's what I don't think that's what that's what that is. Certainly. Well, that is certainly what at least anyway, and I just say that Northern Ireland would have led on a lot of these things once upon a time that we're nice and we need to vote to say in the union for, but because the Republic has now, because Northern Ireland was better off than the Republic back then, and neither Republic has leaked drug. That's all all San on that, but I do, but I'm just, but I'm just making the point. It's not a land versus milk and honey via shithole, but that is, that is what some Republican politicians would have to believe. And then it needs to be challenged and in New Ireland, the North will bring a lot to the party. I've never defeated that. We do have a lot of core strengths there as well. But the one thing I do what I think that we will agree on before I kick at the Michael is Ryan, I absolutely agree with you on the inevitability argument. I've said before I would ban that from nationalism because all it does is encourage lazy thinking. I have been here and said, anyone who grows up with nationalist parents and I've got a very nationalist father. Will remember well remember well my mom bleased the trail for Ryan that is to to follow and Will remember will have our unity by insert date here insert date here And I remember it always used to be 2016 was my dad's favorite and we went down to Dublin for the hundredth anniversary Commemorations as we were watching the army March past I'm ever saying to remember that you were telling me would have our unity by now And can't repeat not repeatable what he said back to me, but I agree with it. I think it encourages lazy thinking within the nationalist parties and And I do think that there does need to be because we're the insurgency campaign. We need to have a bit more Hunger I got we spoke with John boroughs and high. I was a bit disperited by the lack of response from the national side I buy you know when John challenges you to to debate Michelle should have been right there And if Michelle wasn't going to do a car, and I should have been like she won't do I will so I agree with you on that Michael Maria Yeah I think John Boroughs kick the bill out off. We had a reasonable sort of a debate with Matthew tune, but I'll come back to that firstly Welcome Ryan. I certainly welcome the arrival of a new unionist leaning sink tank In northern Ireland. I think anything that is more light than then hate and anything It's more thought than noise is is to be welcomed I'm not a particularly like and I wouldn't compare it to our future our future are sort of I think they're manifesting the growing desirable in the nationalist community for constitutional change and I think they're Manifest and that I would have you closer in my head to you know like pivotal on watch pivotal accept She's maybe not so no particular political leaning or maybe even columnist who's New Ireland Commission where he is established and he's done research on this That you know if you look at the big constitutional change there's 40 for the union 40 for change 20 in the middle and what his research is done focusing in on the 20 is To establish that most of those people Motivated one way or the other Are motivated by those practical concerns that you're talking about those bread and butter issues for that 20 percent It's not emotional for the 40 on either side of the perhaps it is, but for those 20 It's not there are for there is the debating ground and it's a ground that you can occupy it's ground that columnist would Intense to talk you by and I even see signs of this was shen-fee and Amdaren's future that they were realized The job no longer is one of resistance or struggle or even pushing back against your opponents The job now is persuasion and that's a different skill set now. I'd have to say just on my own account finally I'm an Irish nationalist. I believe partition has been a disaster for our north and south If there was a border poem tomorrow, I would vote for our unity without hesitation But having said all that I'm open to persuasion I am actually open to persuasion But let me ask you a couple of questions. That's just me putting a bit of context on things. Can you tell me? I'm gonna ask you two or three quick fire questions. Can you tell me? Who found you What what I'm gonna give you the questions all I want is who found you what's the difference in you and let's say the policy research Unit in the and John Burroughs or street unionist party and Have you a particular new idea that nobody else is articulate that you want to feed into the politics of Northern Ireland and then finally Where do you stand on integrated education? What do you stand on lock now? Well, firstly just to say I'm glad that you like what we're doing Michael and I've compared this to Epithel because I do think that we you know, we're an organization for everyone So on the who funds you point at the moment nobody and we've self-funded Well, we've got to you so far as a bit of a passion project. Well, hopefully I'm hoping that that someone with deep pockets is listening to this podcast and will go and And give us a bunch of money and he's sort of dodgy American billionaires and some of him, you know, fire away I guess maybe where we're different to The all-star unionist policy thing I don't know all that much about them But I guess we're, you know, we're our own thing like as I said before we're separate from Political Camping at the moment aren't they just this week social media campaign on on the benefits of of the union for Northern Yeah, I think there'll be differences there'll be differences maybe on there some of the arguments that we make some of the stats that we pick out You know some of the messaging etc. So yeah, we're an independent organization independent any of the political parties and in terms of one of the What was the other question the question was around a new idea that will come out with will you need to come along to our launch event for our first report on Monday the 16th of November We're out cleaning the first of our fast that people can sign up to on our on our website and there you'll get Maybe some of the new thinking that were that we're putting out there and then also as as time goes on we'll be putting out Reports on lots of different issues on integrated education. I mean we've only launched about a week ago I don't think we've got a fully formed policy yet on on integrated education But what I would say is that you know to the support You know society in which people From different community backgrounds interact with each other get educated together You know, I know people who Friends of mine that Queens who you know the first time that they probably you know Mixed with those for a different background was one when they came to university No, the reason I asked you was just you've spent some time outside northern and and most people I come across Who's either from Northern Ireland who spent time outside it or who haven't been in Northern Ireland and spent time I say they think our education system is barking is like it's crazy separate children by the religions. Oh, I mean I went to a church of England school and my dad went to a Catholic school And it was a very you know generally in England the best schools are generally Catholic schools So I should add in a divided strategy. Then we do that. It's crazy Oh, that's a very good point like we're not unusual. I mean Canada's does secretary of the education system Australia is the same So yeah When is your event when is it whereas and how can we sign up and what time is it up? Yeah, so our launch event Is is to launch our first report, which is the case for Northern Ireland. It's public event at Queens University Belfast and the date is Monday the 16th of November starting at 7.30 p.m And people can register at www.redewandi.co.uk/events I'm watching my hurrah that night, so I can launch it for you For sure we're all like snorfer this I will be in hungry supporting Northern Ireland that night. Oh, well I might I might Total long I go to the cinch. Oh, well, there we go. The grand really appreciate you coming along and yeah, and I mean this even It's not my constitutional viewpoint but for our play do you will win you? Yeah, I'm everyone and know you. I'm sorry I'm sorry, but I appreciate God's good. It's good to hear your open mind at devil. It's it. I've been like you Tim. Yeah, you're so The first play and if anyone wants to go and read any of your policy documents watch your website Renewandi.co.uk Okay, Ryan really appreciate yourness and strong thank you Ryan Okay, well, that was a jam pack episode this week. I was wild. We're still with us well We went everywhere if you have stuck with us for a idea. Hopefully we're not giving you nightmares on Halloween week We hope that whatever you're doing this weekend though if you're dressing up that it's gonna be fun So have a good time. Thank you to Tim and Michael once again for Going around the houses with me. I know our listeners although. I'm going to a bonfire. I'll be going to a bonfire brilliant. Okay, so So thanks very much chance for on the I'm on the legal bonfire Shaman bonfire Oh, there we go. There we go. Our thanks to Randhoey for joining us on this edition of storm and sources Thank you for listening remember you can comment on anything you're in zero trouble three four zero four six five zero seven Remember to use the word stormant since an email to store and sources calm If you're listening to this podcast on Thursday or Friday Head over to YouTube on Saturday. We've extra time More stormant sources. We're just giving the people what they want Thank you so much for listening to us and listening to Northern Ireland's most listening to the political panel From Tim, Michael and myself. We'll see you again next week This episode of stormant sources is brought to you by cozy solar part of the cozy group best in Northern Ireland. 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