Draft Strategy: How To Attack Your League This Season (Episode 1012 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Jack Miller)

(upbeat music) - Hello and welcome to episode 112 of The Official. EstablishTheRun.com podcast. My name's Adam Levitan. We've talked about a ton of very important things over the last few months such as players and rankings, but we have not dedicated a full show to draft strategy. And to me, that is a huge part of the battle. To discuss this today, I'm joined by two young men you know and love, Mark Duncan-Bring, how's it going today? - Going great, Adam, excited to talk through this. I have my first redraft league of the season kicking off tonight, so a lot of the strategy will talk through, I'll be, I'll be employing tonight during the draft, which is, will be a fun time. - Indeed, Jack Miller, how goes it? - It's going okay, I'm excited to talk about redraft and get shifted into redraft mode, but the reason I am excited for that is because my best ball, Portfolio, has taken a huge hit over the past seven days with Jordan Tyson out two months with a hamstring injury and Jaden Higgins out for the year with a torn ACL. So we might be on to 2027 for best ball, but it's still 2026 for redraft, so I'm excited to get into it. - Exactly, well, there's still plenty of time to draft more teams regardless. That's how I'm rationalizing the Jordan Tyson. And Luther Byrd and stuff. Okay, and Ricky Pierce all stuff. Okay, on today's show, we are going to talk all things strategy for 2026 season long snake drafts, early rounds, running back strategy, picking from different pick ranges, middle round strategy, late round tactics, kicker, defense, and more. If you have a fantasy draft coming up, and I know you do, we can help. I promise no one dedicates more time and frankly money to ensuring we have the best and most up-to-date rankings. Our draft kit Pro is just $55, includes Silver's Top 150, Silver's Tears, all our ETR rankings, my draft strategy article, Player by Player Notes, Formant's rankings in season and tons, tons more. So if you've not yet picked up the draft kit, again, $55 head to establishthoron.com, find the subscribe tab and get access to everything we are working on to get you set for your draft. All right, let's get into it here, boys. I've had, you know, a lot of people ask me, I can pick where I wanna pick in the first round. Adam, where should I pick? And normally, each year, I have a pretty strong feeling about where I think is best based on how I feel about the players in Round One, who comes back in Round Two/3. This year, I think you can actually make a case for a lot of different pick spots being the best. Jack worked on the articles for us. If you have draft kit, you can find them about picking from each spot. Jack, where do you think is the best place to draft from this year if you could pick anywhere? - Yeah, so my favorite pick to have this year is the first pick, and my second favorite pick is the second pick, and that's because it gives you access to Jameer Gibbs and D. John Robinson at the top of the board. I do think that there's quite a gap from Robinson to the next running back in Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor McCaffrey has the injury concerns and Taylor isn't quite the past catcher that B. John Robinson is, and then Jameer Gibbs has the same combination of rushing workload and past catching volume, and he's on a significantly better off. And so those are the clear top two for me with Gibbs at the top. I think after that, it becomes a lot more interesting and with the run of Running Max, you see at the end of the first round. I think it's pretty defensible to prefer a late pick in the first round after Gibbs, if you can't get the first or the second pick, but for me, if we're talking, you have the choice of any of the 12 picks in the first round, where are you going? I'm going first pick, if I can't get first pick, I'm going second. - Yeah, and see, I think that there's a big gap for me at least between Gibbs and B. John. So, you know, the first pick to me is huge. I obviously love getting Gibbs there. I'm going to make a case, and I'm curious what you guys think about this. I'm going to make a case for a late pick being best this year. And it really depends how you think your draft is going to go or how it's going to go. But let's say you get a pick between pick nine and 12. From the back of round one, you can get really strong running back, running back, starts. So like James Cook, Kenneth Walker, to me is an awesome start. Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown, Ashden Gen D Derek Henry, Sequan Barkley, Kenneth Walker, whatever you like. But those running back, running back starts are the easiest, I think, and the cleanest to build out the rest of your roster with because as we'll get to all the wider receivers that I want to target are in round three through eight or so. And so if you don't have to force running backs in that range, that round, four, five, six, seven, eight, because we've already addressed it early, I think that's right and easier. So I think the back is maybe my preferred this year, but I don't feel strongly like to Jack's point, getting the first pick is a huge advantage also. So Mark, any thoughts on this? Where's your favorite spot to pick from this year? I think there's a little nuance in terms of what your roster looks like and how that's constructed in your leagues. If you're only starting two wide receivers in a flex and then two running backs as well, I think picking at the end of the first is probably the best spot to be because you are guaranteed to lock in pretty much to a high upside RB1s there, but I think ultimately if I'm in a league that starts three wide receivers, I'd be totally fine getting Jamar Chase or Pukinakua kind of in that three-four spot. You do have to get a little bit lucky, I think in the second round that maybe like a running back would fall back to you, but ultimately if I'm in a league that starts three wide receivers, I'd be more open to starting like a Pukin and then get AJ Brown or Nico Collins kind of thing depending on who falls. You can also get some starts where maybe Derek Henry or Devon H&N would fall to you in the second round in those three-four spots, but again, I think you probably do need some ADP followers just kind of looking at the home league landscape and seeing what's going on there. But I agree with you guys, and I do think it's important to note that we heavily prefer Jamir Gibbs over B. John Robinson as the 101 this year. That's certainly a question I've gotten a lot, and I think it is a tear gap in its own right. So I wanted to make that clear on this show too that if you have the 101, we strongly prefer Jamir Gibbs there. - Yeah, so I wanted to just follow up on that for a second here, Mark, because it has certainly changed a lot the meta around where you should be taking running backs. It is contrarian this year to do a wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver start. Even hero running back is a bit contrarian this year, and the reason that is the case is because when you get to the middle rounds, you're going to be into guys like Juggkins and Skataboo and Tutin and Dave Montgomery. And I prefer wide receivers in that range over those guys almost every time. And that's why I've still just, even though everybody's doing it, I still prefer the running back heavy starts. So even in Lee's wise, I'm forced to start three wide receivers here. Mark, are you worried that if you start go wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver? You're going to end up passing on a bunch of the wide receiver values in the mid range in favor of running backs, who I have concerns about. Maybe you don't, I have some concerns about the running backs in the middle rounds there. - Sure, I'm definitely worried about that, but I think also in redraf leagues, one of the advantages you have at the running back position is being able to kind of place bets on ambiguous backfields. And I would say rounds like eight to 10 range. You also have the waiver wire to play throughout the season, which we don't, and best ball as well. And so if running backs do end up getting injured this year contrary to the past couple of years, there's probably going to be some waiver wire targets that become valuable fantasy assets throughout the season. So sure it definitely puts you in, I think a little bit behind the hate ball, I would much rather have at least one running back. You know, in the first three rounds, I would say, but again, I don't just want to reach on a running back just to secure that position and take like a Kyron Williams in the second round over someone like Nico Collins or AJ Brown. So you know, certainly want to go into drafts with an idea of what I want to do, but I'm not going to say, oh, I'm taking running back here regardless of who else is available. - Yeah, and to be clear, I think Jamar Chase and Pugana Kua are incredible picks. I would take them at pick three and pick four, like absolutely incredible outlooks and profiles. I've seen a lot of people lately take running back over JSN when they get pick five Jack. What do you think about picking from say five and six there where it's a little bit not as clear how you should be starting? - I think it's perfectly defensible to take Christian McCaffrey over JSN. JSN was just such an outlier from a target earning perspective last year. And this offense still doesn't profile to be as good as the Rams or the Bengals passing offense. So you're really depending on him sustaining that outlier high target share. And with McCaffrey, we know what he's capable of when he's healthy. It's a big risk on health as his age and his career workload gets up there. But you're talking about a guy who's right there with Gibbs and Vijon if he stays healthy for 17 games. And so if you're comfortable taking their risk on health, I don't mind taking McCaffrey to five. - Okay, one thing and I've been talking about this for the last few years, this running back barbell strategy in Redraft. I know people who've been listening for the last few years know I've just are probably tired of me talking about it. It has been an absolute printing press for the last few years. And by barbell, I mean, invest heavily in running backs early, skip over the middle rounds and invest in it. again in flyer running backs with upside or handcuffs late. I still think that's the right way to play it. But anyways, this is the first year I think you can actually extend it to round four. So in previous years, I was like, man, I really want to get this done. This running back heavy stars two in the first three rounds there. I've seen drafts and I think there will be some homelies, especially depending on what platform you're on where you can get a Travis ETN in round four. You can get Javante Williams in round four. You can get Josh Jacobs in round four. Maybe I'd include DeAndre Swift in there too. And so to Mark's point about not forcing running back early, if you don't want to, there are round four options. So like if you go into a draft and you can completely project that one of those guys will be there in round four, I am more open to wide receiver heavy starts because I think in round four, ETN, Javante, Jacobs, if he's not suspended and Swift, I think those are fine picks. And other people might throw other guys in there too. You might like Skataboo. You might like Juggins. You might like Dave Montgomery. You could throw other guys into that mix as well. So when you think about round four here, Mark, is it running back wide receiver? There's, we've lost some wide receivers in this range too, you know, to injury, concerns like bouquet, et cetera, burden is now in round five. So yeah, Mark, any more thoughts here on the round four landscape? Yeah, so I have noted down if you do start, you know, through wide receivers in the first three rounds that that ETN and Swift are the two guys that I would want to target kind of in the fourth and fifth round ideally. ETN is going there currently. We'll see if Alvin Kamara, sprained MCL injury, like moves his ADP up much in home leagues. But I think DeAndre Swift for sure, his ADP is typically like in the low 50s. And home leagues, I think he's an awesome way to start your running back room if you start wide receiver heavy. We'll also get to Titans in a second. But I think Colson Loveland in the fourth round is is really someone I'm going to be targeting heavily in home leagues, you know, I'm typically not a Brock Bowers in the second or Tramick Bride in the second. I'd rather take the stab on Loveland in the fourth there. So he's, you know, without playing my, playing my cards out too much with with my home league made. Hopefully they're not listening. But Colson Loveland is certainly a guy I want to get on on as many redraft teams as possible this year. Yeah. And you know, we're pulling in into our half PPR rankings. A, I guess an aggregate of home league ADP across a bunch of home league sites. And like I'm looking at ADP of Breast Hall 32 Swift 51 ETN 41, Montgomery 49. And then you start to get into the, the more upside, but flimsy or profiles. And so in a 12 team league like it's tougher for me on Treby on Henderson. It's tougher for me on Tutan, Engedarian Price and Bucky Irving. Like their range of outcomes is wider. And I think when playing against 12, 11 other people that I don't need to take swings like that as hard. I will note too that one of the advantages of drafting at the back of the first round is I think the three four turn is really strong that I think that's a really flat tier of you can get guys that that I really like at at both the end of the third and the beginning of the fourth round. Whereas like the two three turn if you're drafting, you know, in that one or two spot, I do think that that is kind of a tougher spot where I don't feel as as vindicated on some of my takes of players that go on that range. Yeah. And I mean, there's a lot of wide receivers that available there to that three four turn. You know, I like to make a gookah there. Hopefully his toe is okay. Zay Flowers can be there. Devonta Smith can be there. Lad McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Jalen Waddle. There's a lot of guys as a three four turn at the wide receiver position you can get into. And when you're started the back there, that just like sets up perfectly because you already have likely the running back running back start. I always go back to this tiebreaker stuff, Jack, you know, like yeah, I think it's really close between Justin Jefferson and Sequon Barkley. I think it's really close between CD Lamb and Kenneth Walker. But then when I get to say around three or around four, like we were just talking about, I don't think it's close between Zay Flowers and Kim Scataboo. I don't think it's close between Junkins and Waddle. I prefer the wide receiver there every time, you know, Dave Montgomery versus Luther Burden. I prefer wide receiver there every time. So like as I'm starting to like come together with my strategy, I'm always thinking, if it's close, where do I want to be at later where it's not close? So Jack, anything to add here and running back before we move on to other parts of Strat. Yeah, I'll just say that definitely, it feels better from a structural perspective to take the running back in round one and probably in round two. But part of the reason we're still taking Jamar Chase at pick three or Pukinakua at pick four or Justin Jefferson potentially in the top 10 is because from a projection standpoint, we do have those wide receivers really separating. So I don't think you want to pigeonhole yourself into taking two running backs in the first two rounds. If there's a really capable wide receiver worth taking at that pick, but it's certainly something to be mindful of because I do agree with you then rounds three, four, five, six, it does feel better to be able to pound wide receivers. Yep. All right. Let's go to quarterback strategy for this year. It's a really interesting landscape at quarterback. We are getting lower prices on some really strong dual threat quarterbacks. Not Josh Allen, he's still very expensive. We'll talk about him more in a second. And Lamar is also more expensive. Lamar Jackson is also more expensive in season long than he was in basketball. I'm talking about specifically Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz and Drake May quarterback is incredibly deep this year. But if any of those guys slipped to round six, it's tough for me not to pull the trigger on Jaden Daniels who could easily run for 800 yards and throw for 30 touchdowns. Jalen Hertz, who could run for 15 touchdowns easily and Drake May, who is clearly ascending as one of the best quarterbacks in the league and sneaky dual threat guys. So I don't want to take a quarterback early, but these guys around six is really tough for me to pass on mark any thoughts on the overall quarterback landscape this year. Yeah, I agree with you. I generally don't want to take a quarterback early, but when we get into the sixth round, I no longer consider that early. You know, so this year, I'm totally targeting Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz, Drake May in the sixth round. As you mentioned, I'm probably overlooking, you know, the pocket quarterbacks a little bit in that range in terms of Joe burrow and Dak Prescott a little bit later. I just don't necessarily think they have the top two or three upside that that the rushing quarterbacks do. But certainly, yes, want to want to attack Jalen Hertz and Jaden Daniels specifically in that range. I also think to, you know, in in redraft leagues, people, people don't want to take Jaden Daniels last year, because he got Hertz and they, they, you know, invested a high pick in him. And I was at a family wedding and one of my mother-in-law's friends came out to me and saying, Hey, I had the one, I have the one on one pick. I want to, I need to pick your brain a little bit. So, you know, I told her to take Gibbs. We went through kind of the whole draft. She had her ex-husband drafted in the two hole behind her. So she's like, I got, I got to get this right. And I said, Oh, yeah, I do, I do like Jaden Daniels, you know, this year again. And her response was, Oh, I can't draft them. He got her for me last year. You know, so I, I think that carries over a lot of this season. So, I do think in, in a lot of homeligs, I'm going to end up with with Jaden Daniels or Jalen Hertz and the six round. And, and hope, hope that this ADP holds, because I think that's an awesome value. Yeah, I mean, I'm not saying all of them are going to make it to, um, the six round, but one of them might sneak through, you know, and so I'm always like, just tracking those five guys, Alan Lamar and the three we just mentioned to see where they're going to go. And if one of them will slip to me in round six, but you know, the other side of this Jack is that, yeah, I think they're awesome picks in round six. Typically, in most leagues, most people are taking just one quarterback in a one quarter rack redraft league. So then someone, like, if you go back and look at our mock that we did, I believe Jack got Jackson Dart in like, round 13, or like, you're going to get Trevor Lawrence in round 12 or Jared golf in round 15. And then I'm looking back, I'm like, God, I burned quarterback in round six. I could have had Jackson Dart in round 13. And so there's just so many quarterbacks this year that I don't know. It's interesting how deep it is, Jack any thoughts on playing quarterback this year. Yeah, I agree with you guys in the sixth round. My experience with a lot of homeligs is that a lot of these high end quarterbacks don't make it that far in the quarterbacks on average go to early. So if you can get Daniels or Hertz in the sixth round, I think that those are both really strong picks. But if you miss out on that top tier, really even the top two tiers extending it down to Jalen Hertz, I think you can wait a while in most leagues. This is a spot where you do have to know your league, though, because there are some leagues where everyone's taking two quarterbacks and you don't want to end up with Sam Darnold as your QB1. But projection wise, we have a very small difference between the QB seven or eight and the QB17 or 18 this year. So I don't really see the point in paying up for a Patrick Mahomes or a a Trevor Lawrence in the seventh round, let's say, when you could just wait and draft someone like Bonaix or Jared Goff significantly later and continue to load up on running back wide receiver and potentially even tight end. So I think that there's merit in taking one of the high end guys if you can get them. I think that in a lot of leagues that I've seen, they will probably go to early in which case you're totally fine to wait until the last few rounds of your draft to take your QB1. Yeah. And so what Jack is describing there is a very, very flat tier for us at quarterback. And I know Mark you've talked about this before, if you guys listen to the ETE shows, very few points are separating our say QB, I don't know, QB 10 from QB 22 roughly. And so like there's no reason to to reach for that whatsoever. I have some guys that I personally like more. Then others in that range, I think the idea of taking a platoon, in other words, two quarterbacks in this range and playing matchups, you're going to get them very, very late. Like it's almost free to start Dark Kyler and have both of them on your team. You know, Stafford, Nick's, Purdy, Baker, Love, maybe Malik Willis in a little deeper format. Like there is a lot you can do there and just take two cheaply and play matchups. So Mark, if you do miss on that round six range, what do you think about playing that back tier? Yeah, absolutely. Love that. I do think, I will say, like part of the advantage of getting a quarterback in the six, if they do fall. I agree with Jack. I bet, you know, most in homelinks, they will probably go in the fifth with Jane Daniels in Lamar, for sure, but we'll see there. I think the advantage that gives you not only on the potential points edge, but then I feel very comfortable only rostering one quarterback. Whereas if you do rate weight to the QB 12, you know, on range, then I do think it probably is more optimal to draft two quarterbacks and hopefully like one emerges as the clear starter, but then you are using a bench spot that could potentially be used on a high upside running backer or wide receiver instead. And so I do think that is a slight advantage of targeting, you know, the upper end of quarterbacks, but certainly, you know, if I'm not getting those guys, I am very comfortable waiting. I think it goes late, Brock Perty is someone I think is very underrated as a fantasy quarterback. People do not talk about his rushing nearly enough. I mean, Brock Perty has averaged over four points per game rushing in the last two seasons. He started to scramble a lot. And then you also have Kyler Murray, who I think people are sleeping on quite a bit. He's got great weapons in Minnesota and then ultimately, you know, if you really, really want to push it like Malik Willis is pretty much always there at the end. And then Daniel Jones, you know, is absolutely free and read draft leaves. He's going as like the QB 28. So I think with kind of how things have developed this off season with Daniel Jones, you know, he's he's very free and and was was one of the was one of the key, you know, waiver pickups last year when he started treading for the cold. So I do think it's probably, you know, wait as late as you can if you don't get the that top tier or second tier of quarterbacks. Yeah. And the bigger your bench is, the more you can do this to quarterback stuff, because to Mark's point, if you only have like three bench spots or four bench spots, it's really hard to carry two quarterbacks. There's going to be a ton of good ones on waivers though you could try to do the streaming thing. So in 10 bench spots, I like carrying two quarterbacks late and playing matchups. We know somebody like Jared Goff is extremely weather dependent. There's other guys like Darnell that are pressure dependent. We can kind of project that stuff beforehand and figure out what's a good matchup. What's not a good matchup and figure out who to start between those guys. I'll again, Cape for Jackson Dart to be part of a two quarterback platoon just because he is an insane rusher or can be an insane rusher like what he did for a rushing perspective last year. I hate the night, naggy stuff. I hate the Malik neighbors is hurt, but gosh, you know, Jackson Dart running for 800 yards is not that crazy whatsoever. And that is just such a cheat code near your quarterback to do that. Okay. Last question for me, a quarterback. Everybody wants to know, Jack, Josh Allen is the best player in fantasy in terms of raw points. He's outrageous. He's consistent. He has his insane floor. He scores 20 points every week. He has his insane ceiling gains where he runs for three and throws for three hits 40 points. Is Josh Allen a good pick where he's going to go and read draft leaves, which I assume is somewhere around the two three turn, maybe earlier in round two is Josh Allen a good pick there. For me, not in redrafts, I actually like Allen in basketball when he goes around later and you need multiple quarterbacks because we see the QB two prices are inflated this off season, but that's not really a factor in one QB redraft release where you only need to draft one quarterback per team and he's going about around higher than he is in basketball. So I don't really see myself ever taking Josh Allen in a redraft league this summer. What about a 10 team league or an eight team league? In those setups, I'm like, I'm really tended to take Josh Allen early in those sets. What do you think there, Jack? It depends on the league. If it's a softer league where I'm confident I can get running back and wide receiver value later. I'd be more open to it. The problem with that mindset is that in the softer leagues, you're probably going to see Josh Allen go higher because these people like drafting the highest scoring players in Josh Allen might be the highest scoring player in fantasy this season and so I'm open to it in the smaller leagues where you can get running back and wide receiver later. But in general, I think that in home leagues, especially his price just gets so inflated. Right. This is all about value over a placement. The difference between Josh Allen and Kyler Murray is going to be big. It will not be as big as they get between say Kenneth Walker and Rashad White or something like that. So just think through the two v2s there is why it's tough for us on Josh Allen there in the middle of round two. Let's stick with the onesy positions here, Mark. I think we should start with the Bowers conversation because this is hard. You mentioned that you're not on Bowers in round two. This is hard for me because I actually think Bowers is going to have an insane season. Like an actually insane, awesome season. The problem is he better have that at the tight end position. You better be really sure he's going to have that. So I see both sides of this, Mark, what do you think or I guess you're out on it? Why do you think no Bowers here in round two and redraft? Yeah. I think it's more so I am targeting Colson Lovelin a couple rounds later. It's not that I think Bowers is going to have like a bad season necessarily. I do think there are some more to the Bowers profile though in terms of just the offensive environment. And I guess I'm not as sold that like Coling Cubiac coming in is just going to make the Raiders a top 10 offensive team. They do have Kirk Cousins and another rookie quarterback there in Fernando, Mendoza and Les Sold on kind of the production there. So it's just such a premium pick and ideally, I do think this changes for sure if you're in a 10 team league. And like again, you only start to running back to wider receivers like I'd probably be much more open to taking Bowers in the second. That's not typically the format of my league. So I felt, you know, I pass them over a little bit more. I will say to like Ryan Paganetti who's been doing the rounds on a lot of NFL coverage. He worked in the in the Raiders front office last year, which is just super awesome having his insight and access to his knowledge. And, you know, he said that they were going to pump hours with more targets and trying to have him said like the NFL record for catches in a season, which when you look at this wider receiver core, you know, that's certainly on the table with what the Raiders have going. So I do get the appeal, it's just man, I just have a tough time pulling trigger in the middle of the second round on him. So I just mentioned value over replacement. To me, that is the argument to take Bowers in round two that he has a historic season and you basically enter every matchup with a huge lead on your opponent in projection because we're going to have Bowers projected for 20 something points and someone else is starting Tucker craft who we have for like 11. And at other positions, it's just easier to make up that ground. And as always, the argument for tight end early jack, do you have a take on this at all? What do you think about Bowers in round two? I'm pro Bowers. And I generally like getting one of the elite tight ends, which I, I categorize as Brock Bowers, McBride, Loveland or Tyler Warren Bowers and Loveland are my two preferred. And I think that with Bowers specifically, it becomes an easier click if you took a running back in the first round because we've talked about not falling behind at running back and how quickly running back can fall off and liking the receiver value in the middle round. So if you have a running back in the first round, like a McCaffery or a Jonathan Taylor, it becomes a lot easier to take Bowers because then you've got the elite tight end. You've got the elite running back and you can still catch up a wide receiver over the next few rounds. I think, you know, what I think of my opponents matters to, you know, if they're going to make a lot of mistakes down board at running back in wide receiver, it's much easier for me to say I'm going to take a tight end in round two. Like if they're going to let, I don't know, if they're going to let Travis ETN slip to the end of round four, I'm way more comfortable taking Bowers in round two. And so part of that is the platform you play on, you know, I think if I'm up against a bunch of people that aren't that prepared and we're playing on ESPN, I am so confident that I'm going to get some crazy values later. If it's on Yahoo, I'm not as confident like their default rankings are way sharper than ESPN or CBS or anything like that. So, you know, there's some nuance and some soft skills. I think that that matter when preparing. Um, I also, do you think you like in homelies like as Bowers even locked in as a tight end one, I think people come in and, you know, not grinding the stuff all off season might, might just see Tramie Bride there and be like, why is Tramie Bride going after Brock Bowers? You know, so I certainly think that's a case too where like if Bowers does slip to the end of the second or early third round, you know, I think it's much more palatable there, whereas like if it's Brock Bowers worth Derek Henry, you know, and a half PPR homelink, like I'm probably taking Derek Henry right there. Um, and Bower, like I don't know if I'm as sold as like Bowers, you know, goes in the top 18 to 19 fix or something. Yeah, and to be clear, if you go to our half PPR rankings, if you have draft kit, I mean, we have Brock Bowers 22nd overall, you know, well behind Derek Henry. And to Mark's point, the ADP that we're pulling in here, Brock Bowers 21.3, Tramie Bride 22.3. It has gotten much wider than that in the best ball streets, but in redraft to Mark's point, I don't even realize that that is very close. Like Cherry Bride is going to be a tough click for me there if his ADP is 22. Um, okay, the other thing I want to talk about at tight end is this idea of if you don't get one of the elites. Just don't call the waiting and waiting and waiting and there's some options late that I think you can take shots on George kiddo is our tight end nine. I don't know how long you can wait for him with more positive news There's been positive news around dawn cancade. I think he's has the upside to be a top five tight end. He's our tight end 10 I don't know how long you can wait for him. I say it likely. I think we think is a bit over drafted right now at an ADP of 105 once you get past that it's really hard for me to like Find guys that I think can compete and so in a head-to-head game I kind of want to get one of the top eight cutting it off at Kyle pits And that includes Laporta fan in craft and then the four quote-unquote elites that we already talked about so Jack any more thoughts on Tight end how much repair it is it for you to get on to one of these top eight tight ends Yeah, I'm with you there, and that's why I'm even prioritizing the top four I would cut it off after fan and I'll note that as we're recording this on August 20th Sam Laporta heard his hip today and we don't know if he's gonna be Available for week one so that's certainly one to watch because I'd have Laporta before fan and assuming he's fully healthy But I think that fan is the last one that I'd be really comfortable with as my tight end one if we get more positive Kittle news and we know that he's gonna play in week one. I think you could throw him into that group as well, but I really do like get It one of the top eight or nine kind of the opposite of what we've talked about a quarterback where you can wait forever Yeah, it's tough to wait forever at tight end and like I like the George Kittle stuff, but I Can't have me my only tight end, you know He's 33 years old. He's coming off into killies. I don't know what he's gonna look like I'm not confident that he's gonna play week one I think he's gonna play some time in September I wouldn't bet my life on it. So like if you wait and you get down to Kittle and Kinkade I think you're gonna need me to end up having two on your team, which I don't love carrying two tight ends Maybe I'll do it for the first week just to see how it goes with Kittle's health or something like that But yeah, Mark anymore on down board tight end strategy I think there are a few targets that at the very end I'd be okay Taking a swing on John Johnson sticks out as one of those guys with the Jordan Tyson injury news I think honestly, John Johnson is gonna project as like a top eight to 10 tight end for us and in week one or at least until Jordan Tyson comes back So I think if you are waiting towards the end he really stands out as as a value option I do want to shout out like Terrence Ferguson as well on the Rams There's a chances in week one his role is way better than then we're anticipating like he could be in the tight end one Discussion so I kind of want to take you know shots on on upside guys like that as opposed to you know someone like Pat firemuth or or You know any other name way at the end But Joanne and Terrence Ferguson specifically stuck out as me as as late-round, you know Hey, we'll just see how this goes in week one and again I think Joanne is gonna project really well for us going into the start of the season I'm working on the explain in the default articles ESPN one is already up Yahoo will be up before this you guys listen to this Show one thing that I'm noticing is that that those tight end five through tight end eight are really up in ADP in other words Fan in craft LaPorta and pits go way higher in Redraft then in bestball or then I think that they should and that's just another argument for getting one of the top four Like I think the top four are priced somewhat Appropriately McBride it looks to be a little bit overvalued in ADP But the top four looks priced somewhat appropriately You're gonna have to pay I think if people are going off default ranks on any of the applets really to get Fan in LaPorta pits craft and yeah, I think LaPorta is gonna be okay I really like him. Maybe this gives a little bit of an ADP dip here on LaPorta with the hip thing All right Wide receiver so you know, this is the inverse of running back There's fewer viable wider sievers now in fantasy football than there was Four years ago three years ago because teams are just straight up passing less There's fewer wider sievers on the field. There's more tight ends and running backs and fullbacks on the field You can take some really low scores at wide receiver now the flip side of that is the receivers that are on the field They're getting to compete with dusty tight ends for targets and they benefit in a big way So how that's translated to ADP people are pushing running backs up so much you get Boring wide receivers. I don't know Devante Adams Mike Evans even non-boring guys like Jameson Williams I think should be going way higher or he would have been going higher in a different iteration of fantasy in this running back Heavy iteration you can get those guys through the middle rounds So I know I've been talking about this for a few years, but to me the middle round wide receiver is where We win Jack any more thoughts here on overall wide receiver strategy and landscape for this season Yeah, I just want to point out that I think that's kind of what we're seeing at the top because we've Spent a lot of this episode talking about how we like getting running backs in the first two rounds and yet in our half PPR rankings We still have Jamar Chase Pukinakua JSN Justin Jefferson Oman Ross Saint Brown and CD Lamb in the top 10, I believe and that's because those are the true Alpha target earners that are going to be out there on every play and in Solid to above solid passing off fences and after that there is kind of a tear gap I think really Jamar and Kukar probably in a world of their own in that regard But I think that that is is the argument for taking one of these hyper talented wide receivers in the first turn Even though structurally it feels better taking running back is that the wide receiver landscape has changed the little and it has made Those super high-end guys more valuable. Yeah, and I felt the market is adjusted Mark, you know It like the way NFL defenses play now. It is harder for guys like Xavier worthy Matthew Golden Alec Pierce it's harder for these guys to be consistent and good fantasy performers Just based on the way defense is play now, but the market's adjusted you can get Matthew Golden at like 120 overall or 130 overall you can get Jaden Reed at 90 overall even though he's only going to play in the slot There's just a lot Xavier worthy goes, you know 110 115 in redrafts So there's definitely talented guys down board. It's just going to be You know, you're gonna take some really low scores, you know, that's about my you're gonna take some really of scores Those guys gonna be inconsistent any more thoughts on general wide receiver landscape this year Well, that's why I'm I'm still open to starting out wide receiver heavy I think one thing that you know we talk about in the best ball landscape that transfers over to read draft Is is kind of the idea of draft them early or draft a lot, but don't do both So I think you know if you're starting out wide receiver heavy early in draft So you can you can just kind of stop drafting after four or five wide receivers and lock in you know The ones that we feel really good about their their volume and talent level and then just fill your bench with with high upside Running back stashes and you know, maybe a couple quarterbacks and in that scenario and so you know I hate to say it's like very very draft dependent But I do really think it is and and yeah kind of looking down the board at values to me It really comes back to the the rookie wide receiver as you mentioned Matthew Golden there I also like both of the Browns guys sadly KC conception and and Denzel Boston Maybe we can get the Sean Watson off the field so they can get some some usable targets The John Striblin is also going you know way later and and like Striblin is someone that that's a week one if George Kiddles And I healthy or just his role is is really strong that that you know it could be an absolute steal in like the one 40 so You know, I think I think it's certainly fine waiting and taking more of the upside stabs But I'm probably not in a read draft league taking someone like a Debo Samuel Necessarily in that range because I do want you know more of more of the upside swings later in drafts Yeah, and I talked about this you can read some of my articles about draft strategy or player by player notes or the perfect draft All that is in the draft kit I identified some wider series that I like Late but Jack and my off base in thinking that The wide receivers in the mid range. I'm talking burden Mike Evans, Jameson Williams, McLaren, Parker Washington That range To me is like where I want to be where I think the best picks are in that range Do you disagree at all there Jack or any more thoughts on the mid range of wider receiver? No, I agree with that and I think that as we talk about these high-end wide receivers separating more because teams are running more and Playing more tight ends and all that stuff the market has adjusted pretty starkly if you compare last years ADP to this year Running max going way earlier this year, so I think the targeting that range of wider receivers is is what I want to do as well Yeah, I think important also like when you're taking wide receivers late like you want to take big swings You know, I think goby Myers is probably a little bit underrated in best ball He is not a player that I would take in redraft at all and we'll get more of that Those strategy can difference his between best ball here in a second, but I'd be remiss mark We didn't talk about kicker and defense because this is a I Think people kind of like thumb their nose at it and they're like oh people play with kickers or defense or idiots or I think there's actually a big edge In understanding like how to think about this stuff Which kickers to stream off the wire which defense to stream off the wire how early to take them in drafts So I actually don't mind when they're in drafts. I do think that there is an edge here. Let's start with kicker mark because the big question is Brandon Aubrey I'm tempted to take this guy like way earlier than any human normally Should in the right setup. So mark what do you think about Brandon Aubrey and kicker thoughts It pretty much is Brandon Aubrey or bus set at the kicker position in terms of like you know Do I draft a kicker early if if the if the question is Brandon Aubrey? I think, you know, you very well could say yes. There is a little nuance too in terms of your league settings. If you play in a half PPR or standard league, where you're starting, you know, one quarterback two running backs, two wider receivers, and a flex and then it's kicker and defense. Like your kicker score is gonna, you know, take up a decent amount of your total, you know, final score of that week. So I think you can target Brandon Aubrey in those formats, even heavier, like, you know, maybe in the ninth or 10th round, honestly. And in terms of looking at Aubrey's career, he's averaged 11.1 points per game, which last year would have finished as the wider receiver 16 and half PPR. I was tied with with James and Williams, you know, who's going in a fifth round this year, but it changes a lot when you look at full PPR formats. That would be equal to the wider receiver 38 and full PPR. So again, scoring formats in your league depends a ton. And then, you know, beyond Brandon Aubrey, over the last five years, no kicker has averaged more than 9.6 points per game. Again, Aubrey was at 11.1. So it's really a big tear gap from him to the next, you know, reasonable kicker. You can get kind of, you know, a 10 plus point per game season out of kickers, but it's not as predictable as Aubrey has been so far over the last three years. So, you know, a pretty, pretty big tear gap there, I think. And ultimately too, like a lot of ESPN standard leagues or your standard scoring, they only go up to, you know, five points for a 50 yard field goal. They aren't tracking six points for a 60 yard field goal just because historically in the NFL, you know, kickers weren't attempting those nearly as often. And now we're getting that. So maybe your league, you know, counts six points for a 60 yard field goal, which would make it even, you know, more advantageous to get Brandon Aubrey or like a Cam little who have, who have these big legs in that range. So I would say it's very nuanced towards your league, but certainly Aubrey, I do think is a reasonable target ahead of some other names that you would be shocked, I think, to realize like how much of an head she's provided over the last three years. - Right. And so the only way that I would do this setup, this Aubrey thing would be half PPR, relatively small starting lineups. Now Brandon Aubrey's ADP that we're pulling in is 120th overall. So that's basically the 10th round. There are some very good players like, you know, stripling might go in the 10th round. I don't want to really be passing on stripling for Brandon Aubrey most likely, but I'd at least consider it in round 10 or 11. If it was the right set up, if you do not get Aubrey though, I think last round kicker or streaming kicker, probably makes sense. Defense, Mark, I think we can address more quickly here. I typically try to find one that slips that I think is really good, or one that just has a good early season matchup. And you know your league, if people are carrying a bunch of defenses and streaming's not gonna work, that's a different story. But for most people, you're going to find something every week that is a pretty good spot to stream your defense. So Mark, any final thoughts here on defense? Yeah, I think drafting defenses early is probably the dumbest draft day decision you can make. I certainly think waiting on defense till the last round is the way to go. There's always going to be streamers that are available and, you know, the defense eight to 12 kind of ADP ranges. This year there's three that really stand out to me. That's the chargers, Jaguars and Steelers. The chargers open their season at home against the Cardinals and the Raiders the first two weeks. They're massive, you know, touchdown plus favorites in both of those games. The Jaguars get the Browns at home in week one. That's very likely going to be Dishon Watson who's been an absolute dumpster fire in terms of taking sacks and turning the ball over. Then you get the Steelers at home week one against the Falcons and what looks like it's gonna be to a tug of eye low S. So I think those three, you know, none of them are going earlier than the defense seven or eight and leagues I think waiting and taking them and the last round is the way to go. Card, Steelers against two. Card, I'm worried, man. I hope Penny gets back there soon. Okay, we'll talk more about that with Silver next week. Okay, last thing before we get out of here on strategy, I know a lot of us, including myself, have been on best ball brain for a long time now. There are very clear things I think we need to do differently in redraft than best ball. I want to open this up to you guys also. The first thing that comes to mind for me is that, yes, we always want upside, right? We want there to be a path to a big hit at cost. That is nothing new or groundbreaking. I do want to be clear that it's counterintuitive, but the boring stuff is better in best ball. Like, since we can't drop anyone, since there's no actual bench, taking zeros or really risky stuff, isn't as good as it is in say, redraft where I can take a swing on an 80 Mitchell or someone like that or something really risky, Jaden Blue, and if it doesn't work out, I just drop him. Whereas in best ball, there's no dropping. So to me, that is like the most important thing. Guys like Gobi Myers are worth way more in best ball to me than they are in redraft. Jack, thoughts on that or anything else you want to say about differences between best ball and redraft. Yeah, I'd say especially late. You want to really prioritize upside. Like in best ball, we've been high on Cooper Cop and Calvin Ridley and Jerry Judy and these boring veteran ride receivers all off season. In redraft, I would have zero interest and then I would rather have a guy who might be a stone zero, but he actually has a chance to be a top 36 or a top 24 wide receiver running back if things go right. I also think that from a roster construction perspective, Mark kind of touched on this earlier, but things are way different. If I start wide receiver, wide receiver, wide receiver with three receivers in the first three rounds, I might only take one or two more the whole rest of the draft. And if I have a seven player bench, I might have one wide receiver in six running backs on my bench, just to maximize my chances of hitting on someone like that. And then I also think that in redraft, there is a huge benefit to guys whose role we will know earlier because inevitably after week one, someone's gonna get hurt or someone's gonna have a bigger role than we expect. And you're gonna want to drop someone to pick them up. If you have a bunch of purely handcuffed running backs who need an injury who would be really good if the starter gets hurt, but you have to kind of wait and see if the starter gets hurt. Those are tough guys to drop or is if you have someone like a Terrence Ferguson who Mark mentioned earlier, we might know in week one if he suddenly has a massive role like McVeigh has done on the past with Puka was the most notable one, he did it with Kyrie Williams and kind of with Blake Korum as well. So we might see in week one that, oh, all of a sudden Terrence Ferguson has this big role, we might also see, oh, he's still a tight end three. Another one I think would be like a Jalen Noel who after the Higgins injury yesterday, we don't know, Higgins played 64% of his snaps inside last year. I still observe your Hutchinson who they like a lot on the outside so they could play, they could keep going the slot. We'll know in week one if he's going to be a slot only guy or if he could actually push for outside while you're super two duties. So I think having guys like that who, they might be totally useless after week one, but in that case, you can just drop them. I think that that's something we should prioritize over guys where you kind of have to wait and see how things play out. - 100% and you know, basically what Jack's saying is we want to be churning the wire. Like the way we're going to win and rejaph is by churning the wire. I want to have guys who's, I know early information, figure it out if I can drop them or move on. So I want to take huge swing. I thought Terence Ferguson was an awesome example. Jalen Noel was on my list, also as an example. I throw Cyrus Allen into the mixes as an example of someone in a deeper league that you could take late and find out very early if he's going to have a real role or not. Mark, any more thoughts on differences between rejaph strategy and best ball strat? - I did want to talk through hand cuffing a little bit. I know that that always gets asked, like should I hand cuff my first round running back pick? And to me, I do think there are some spots and season long rejaph fantasy where you should or where you could hand cuff. And to me, it comes down to back fields that are high scoring offenses with a clear like talented hand cuff that would absorb the majority of the work and kind of going through all the, and they're a cheap cost. I will say that that the hand cuff running back is cheap. And so to me, it pretty much came down to one player and that's tank bigsby. So I do think like if you have sake one hand cuffing and with tank bigsby is fine because at least as of now, you know, if sake one were to go down tank bigsby would absorb a massive amount of that rushing workload, whereas we'll shiply and another, you know, running backs they have on the depth chart are probably one factor in much. The other name that came to mind was maybe Ray Davis, you know, of the bills just given how run heavy they are. You do have Ty Johnson who would likely mix in for some pass down work, but he's currently injured as well. So those are like the two teams of elite offenses with a guy, you know, next in line that would assume the full roll and they're very cheap. You know, like Blake Corm doesn't apply to this 'cause he goes in the 90s, you know, not trying to hand cuff crime limbs with Blake Corm. So I do think those are like the two spots this year that I'd be willing to hand cuff otherwise I would avoid it. - Hand cuff is for sure worth more in redraft because we don't take the zeros. Like we know when to start him in best ball, you know, you could have tank bigs be on your bench all year. It could be a lot of zeros, man, if nothing happens. To sake one, whereas yeah, in redraft, I'm keeping them on my bench, I keep my bench, I keep my bench, I keep my bench. I would throw Tyler Algier into the mix, we'll see what happens with James Conner, but maybe Tyler Algier has a clean path and Jeremiah Love already has a high ankle sprain here. Two more small notes for me on redraft strategy differing from best ball. I don't stack like, you know, we talked about this with Leonie Summon. I believe it was man versus machine. I don't remember exactly. Stacking has been official in redraft leagues, but not like it is in best ball. And so I did not go out of my way to stack. If it happens, it happens. I don't go out of my way to stack. And the last thing is a lot of redraft leagues have IR spots. There aren't great candidates for IR spots right now. I think Jordan Tyson is a really good one. A Zach Sharpening, I think is a good one. Maybe Kittle, but I doubt it 'cause I don't think he's actually gonna start the year. On IR, but my point is that if your league has IR guys that are hurt are worth a little bit more Jack anymore thoughts on best malverse redraft or shall we get out of here? I think you guys pretty much nailed it. All right Hopefully that helped You guys start developing your strategy for your 12 team or 10 team or 14 lead 14 team redraft league be sure you are updating our rankings. We are making tweaks My god 20 30 times a day at this point with all the injuries and depth chart news. So Before you guys draft be sure you're uploading Or refreshing the ranks also if you are going to a ESPN or Yahoo or sleeper draft and you want to see our rankings in the Appleth that is part of draft kid pro now you can find that under tools and Get the extension going and you'll be able to see our ranks in there, which I think is a really big value add to anyone drafting On those sites All right That's gonna do it four Mark For Jack for Sir Ryan for Sir Luke I'm Adam early bird beth under early bird bundle price expires monday good luck everybody (upbeat music)