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247: Djamal Adib - Stop Loss Hunting and Dancing with the Smart Money in Forex Trading

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247:  Djamal Adib - Stop Loss Hunting and Dancing with the Smart Money in Forex Trading

L'episodio del podcast "Chat with Traders" presenta un'intervista con Jamal Adib, un esperto trader Forex. Adib spiega che, nonostante il Forex sia il mercato finanziario più grande e liquido al mondo, la stragrande maggioranza dei trader retail perde denaro a causa della sua struttura unica. Il mercato è infatti influenzato dalla manipolazione e dalla caccia agli stop loss da parte degli operatori istituzionali ("smart money"), che rendono l'azione dei prezzi apparentemente caotica. Dopo aver subito perdite iniziali, Adib ha dedicato anni allo studio di migliaia di grafici, sviluppando una comprensione profonda della "causalità di mercato". Questo lavoro, supportato da strumenti di analisi dei dati sugli ordini, gli ha permesso di decodificare i principi operativi degli algoritmi degli smart money e di prevedere i movimenti di prezzo. Questa conoscenza è alla base sia del suo trading manuale (documentato su YouTube) che delle sue strategie automatizzate, che formano un portafoglio diversificato. La sua competenza è stata confermata dalla vittoria in una competizione Forex internazionale nel 2019. Adib sottolinea che, senza comprendere questa struttura di mercato, le possibilità di successo per un trader sono molto basse.

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Chat with traders is brought to you by Trade the Pool. Did you know that every decade the market reinvents itself? Online brokers opened the doors. Mobile apps made trading seamless and commission-free trading erased barriers. Now a new era has begun. Meet Trade the Pool, Limited Risk Trading. And now you also have unlimited time to reach the profit target. From now on your trading risk is capped and your trading opportunities are limitless. Trade the Pool funds home-based stock traders with up to $200,000 in buying power. That means you can trade larger positions and scalar strategies without risking your own savings. It's time to trade with more capital, making it truly worth your time and effort. Ready to trade the pool? Click the link in the description and join the stock trading revolution today. Ditch those rookie trading apps. Get Tasty Trade, the platform for serious traders. Chart with 300 plus indicators. Know your profit odds and move fast. Trade stocks, options, futures, and more. All in one account. CY serious traders choose Tasty Trade. Visit TastyTrade.com. Tasty Trade Inc. is a registered broker dealer and FINRA, NFA, and SIPC member. Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chart with Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Markets, speculation, and risk. This is the Chart with Traders podcast. We are an episode 247 and I am Tessa, your co-host of Chart with Traders. It's been way too long and it's about time that we have a discussion on Forex Trading. But this is not your average Forex Trading discussion. This is an episode that I am especially excited for you Forex traders out there and for non-Forex traders like myself because I got a few important key takeaways that I didn't expect. Today, our host, Ian, conducts an exciting interview with Jamal Adib. Some Forex traders may be unaware of how stop loss hunting and market manipulation is done by the smart money. Like many Forex traders, ex-stock broker Jamal Adib experienced early losses which compelled him to study the inner workings of Forex trading and how stop loss orders are hunted by the smart money. Jamal spent four years pouring over thousands of charts of different time periods and programmed his carefully back-tested algorithms resulting in him winning an international Forex competition. He shares his enthusiasm and much wisdom of the opportunities and dangers of trading Forex and why you need an edge. As a side note, Jamal Adib will be joining us in a live discussion inside the Chat with Traders community scheduled for November 16th, where he and Ian will continue this lively discussion on Forex. If you'd like to join this private online membership community, go to the Chat with Traders website and then inside the menu bar, click on Community. We hope to see you there. Now, ladies and gentlemen, without further delay, we are so pleased to present Jamal Adib. - Jamal, I'd like to welcome you to Chat with Traders and love to find out a little bit about your background, kind of what got you into the financial markets. - Yeah, thank you so much Ian. It's a true honor to be on this podcast and very excited. So my mom is German and my dad is Iranian. That's where my name comes from. Yeah, so yeah, I grew up in Germany. I went to high school there. I was always a very driven person, very proactive. I was president of the student council and all kinds of things. I graduated from my school with like a 1.3 average, which is equivalent to like an A-plus. I went to study a Bachelor of Science in Economics in Maastricht and also at Woodworth University in Spokane. And yeah, I did a master of finance, also after that at Eddick Business School in East France. I went also to Harvard Summer School after that. And during my studies, Ian already did several internships. I've invested in banks. For example, I was at Goldman Sachs in London. I was at Bank of America, Maryland, in London. I was also at the South Oppenheim in Frankfurt. And to make a long story short, I did my master thesis, which was about fractal finance. And I graduated. I worked as a stockbroker and investment manager. And then for the last 10 years, I basically traded Forex full time and both, you know, manual and automated. And to be honest, this is a great point in time for Forex interview because as you know, Ian, the stock market is coming down as expected. We had the crypto crash. So more and more people will look at Forex now, I think. - So you have experience with equities. And I'm curious, what led you to focus just on Forex? - Yeah, that's a great question. That's correct. So, you know, when I was a broker, I was trading a lot of equities as well as options on stocks. And I liked it a lot. You know what happened is I started to create own Forex systems in my free time. You know, back then, the systems were quite rudimentary. I mean, if I look at what I'm doing today, you know, it was really like just some very basic statistical systems, you know, like not very complex. And what happened as well is Ian, there was this one client as I remember, you know, and he used to call now and then and place Forex trades. And I saw everybody doing all kinds of things, you know, buying equities, trading ETFs, bonds, et cetera of options. And this particular gentleman, he was like, you know, sniping, placing Forex trades and most of the time, they were also good trades. And I kind of got hooked, you know, like I started to research myself about Forex and I really, you know, found out that this is my passion within the financial markets, you know. That's basically how it happened, yeah. - What could you share about what do you think the advantages or opportunities available in Forex that might not be available in the stock market? Some, I've heard some traders argue that, well, you know, Forex has a very limited number of choices of what you can do and with the stock market, you have thousands of different equities you can trade and there's more opportunity for inefficiencies. How do you respond to that? - Yes, I mean, and that particular topic, you know, gets us straight into it. So that's, that's right. So on the one hand, yes, we know that the foreign exchange markets are the world's largest financial markets. You know, we have to remember that, you know, like the daily transaction volume and let's say your dollar can be five, six trillion US dollars. That means that if you add up all stocks in the world, here we have many days where the transaction volume in Forex far exceeds, you know, the global stock markets. So it is a massive, massive market. It's open 24/7, well, 24/5. It closes on Friday and opens on Sunday night. It's very liquid. The transaction costs allow. We have loads of movement. So when you look at those factors in, all of that looks like really, really attractive for trading, doesn't it? You know, like you think, come on. I mean, this is really what you want. If you want to, you know, actively trade a financial market. But as we know, on the other hand, you know, there are certain things which, you know, like show us at some things of, so for example, you know, when you look at the 10 biggest hedge funds in the world right now, you do not really find a single fund which is like completely dedicated to Forex, you know? So like there may be a pot-based funds which, you know, have certain teams doing Forex strategies, yes. But you know, we don't really have a massive fund which is specialized in trading Forex only. In particular, why is that? What do you think it is? That's a great question. And that the answer to that is to make a long story short. And that's what we're going to focus on today, I guess. It's market manipulation. See, and so in 2013, we still had a big FX fund which was called FX Concepts. It was managed by John Taylor. And you know, this fund, it did very well over decades. It had 14 billion on a management. You know, it was big, but until 2013, it went bankrupt. And to make a long story short, what's going on in this market? And that's also why spin traders do not want to touch it. And they are right, in that sense. The market has a very particular structure and very particular dynamics. I'm completely specialized in that. And I hope that I can really shed some light on that today. And you know, like the reason for the bad statistics, which we know, for example, that over a four month period, 84% of traders trading Forex lose. If you increase this by another four months, we're talking more like 95% of traders lose money in Forex. So, you know what I mean, these are the harsh statistics. So this is a bit of a fact check. And also, as you know, you have like, I think 250 podcasts so far, very few on Forex, isn't it? Yes, very few. So, you know, the reason for that is that, first of all, as a price-taker in this market, without specific knowledge on the Forex market structure, your chances of success are very, very low. Because you need to understand how the so-called smart money algorithms actually operate. What kind of principles they apply to the market every single day? You see, like, and please also understand, these kind of topics, like they are inherent to the market itself. All the broker manipulation, for example, comes on top of that. You see, we can talk about it later as well. But what I'm focusing here right now is the actual price action. Why does Eurodollar move like it does and go up and down like it does? Why does the price action look so erratic to outsiders who do not understand that market? You know, I can explain in detail why that is a case. And by the way, I should also say clearly that, you know, I have been publishing a large part of my work already for four years. So, you know, I have this YouTube channel, you know, I have over 630 videos. They are live-trains, live analysis. You know, it's called SMEFX, so you're free to go there. If you want to, you know, know a bit more about all that. But, you know what I mean? Like, you know, it's not that I'm here since yesterday. I've actually decided already some years ago to publish that kind of work and to show the technology which we have, the charts which we have with leading information. And, you know, at this point in around the thousand people have been following my work. And many of those have actually become good traders in their own right. You know, they have been also using that website, I created. And, you know, I'm very proud of that work. You know, also, by the way, I'm still working on this book, you know, maybe in the next two years I will finally finish it. I'm so sorry, it takes a lot of time because most of the time I'm trading, you know, trading is always my priority. Everything else I do by the side. But what I'm saying is, look, as a little disclaimer, I will make some big claims in this podcast. But please understand everybody who listens to this. First of all, there's a lot of public evidence of that, yeah? Like the newspaper articles where, you know, it's exactly explained, which kind of entities got fined for Forex rigging. You know, there's even a statement by the US Department of Justice explaining how certain entities have engaged in Forex money proliferation. So, first of all, don't take this from me. You need to, you know, if you do your research and you find a lot of content also on my channel about that, you will see that this is basically how the market works. Also, Ian, you know, I would like to emphasize straight away, you know, one has to understand that this kind of market manipulation, or however you want to call it, is also necessary to a certain degree. Like Forex would be different if you know, these entities wouldn't be doing what they do. I don't want to get too far off topic. But you know, if you take a historical view on things, you know, and you go back decades, you can see that in all financial markets, you know, to some degree, we always had, you know, like certain things going on, you know, by market makers, you know, by the sales side, you know, in that context, you know. And also, by the way, there's not necessarily even a conflict of interest regarding the market structure, because people have to understand, when we talk about the dumb money, yeah. - If you wouldn't mind me interrupting here just because I, I'd love to get into that shortly. I'd like to bring it back to your background. If you wouldn't mind. And then you're in 2013, I understand you created a, your Forex firm. - Yeah, so what happened is, you know, I was still a broken investment manager. I got to know, you know, certain people, they were found us of a big gaming firm. And you know, we got to know each other and they said, "Jama, are you interested in, you know, focusing on trading?" I said, "Sure." What happened is, you know, we actually created two funds, one of them was supposed to be a stock and option fund, but it never really got operational, unfortunately. It would have made a fortune, because it was just before the, you know, big bull market of the last decade. But yeah, it wasn't launched. So we launched, however, like a small Forex fund. And you know, I started basically focusing on Forex, but trading. And at the beginning back then, you know, like, it didn't go very well because, you know, all the systems I had put together, they were not really, you know, consistent. So, you know, it was at the point where I was like, "Oh, you know, this is not as a thought." However, what happened then, Ian, is, you know, first of all, I got to know, you know, some really good people, some really good programmers, one in particular, I'm not sure whether he wants, his name mentioned. But we worked together and we started working on tools, you know, which analyze certain data, for example, position, data, limit data, order data, you see. And we were really just tinkering. It's not that we understood how this works. You see, I should also really be humble and say that, I was, you know, I was very motivated to get to the bottom of this. I really wanted to understand how Forex actually works. And as soon as we started, you know, experimenting with certain tools, we quickly realized, you know, it was like a true aha moment. I was like, okay, wait a second. Here we have those positions. Here we have certain orders accumulated. And then, you know, the move goes exactly it goes against those positions. Then to the accumulation of orders on the other side. So it didn't take long until I realized, okay, this game can be correct. And, you know, like we need to, you know, work hard. And, you know, like really, really, you know, improve our tools and get to the bottom of this. And that was a multi-year process, you know, worked like crazy, you know? Like, if I commit to something, I really, you know, work hard. And that's basically what I did, you see? And then, you know, the more we realized what's going on, you know, the more, now I have to explain also in that context, you know, I took a very radical approach. And I said, you know, what, first of all, I just want to observe how this market structure unfolds. You know, I will not come with any ideas or theories, how it should be known. I will simply observe how it unfolds. And then in a second phase, I will basically analyze what's going on. And then, in the third step, I will, you know, try to derive general rules from that. You see, like it was really necessary because many things, which I will also explain today, are a bit counterintuitive. For example, maybe we jump a bit into that, if you don't mind, in a stop hunting. No, you wanted also to talk about stop hunting. - My understanding is that you created, you got into programming algorithms, is that correct? - Well, so, no, I should be more precise. So within the last four years, I also created fully automated strategies. So my own trading Igos, yes. - Mm-hmm. - But that's basically covering my automated forex trading. But regarding the creation of the market causality, this market structure technology. Basically, you know, I paid also programmers to, you know, implement it, you know, to build it. So that, once the tools were good enough, and we find you with everything, then I was able to formulate the complete market causality and, you know, to formulate also those principles, you know, how the mechanics actually unfold in real time. And then, of course, then it enables you to also predict price moves. You see, so that's basically, you know, like the sequence, how it works. So, in a nutshell, to summarize, first, I really, you know, did the complete market causality. And then at the later stage, I also developed fully automated trading Igos myself, you see? - Mm-hmm, once you started implementing these fully automated systems, how was your return and drawdowns impacted by using these trading systems versus prior when you did things manually? - Yeah, I mean, that's an interesting question. So regarding my own trading, I moved more and more to automated systems. So I used to be like a fully manual trader. And I still, you know, trade manually, you know, many of my trades are documented on YouTube, you can watch them where I just basically directly trade the market causality, yeah? So I wait for certain set-ups, let's say it's a post-stop-on set-up or, you know, like a squeeze move, whatever it is, and then I traded them. Now, when it comes to my automated trading, I basically incorporated certain principles from the market causality into those strategies, yes? But the strategies themselves are still kind of statistical, you know what I mean? So it's not that they need all the information in which I use for the manual trading. And as you can see, like maybe also in the future, another time we can also talk in detail about the automated systems, you know, how they need to be set up, you know? It's also a topic on its own. But yeah, I mean, to answer your question, so, you know, my strategies and my bot portfolio, they all have like a great relationship between like, you know, net profit and maximal drawdown. Like I would say is a general rule regarding these kind of trading bots. If you can achieve, you know, like a net profit, which is two, three or four times higher than your maximal drawdown, you know? Then you are on a very good way. The next thing, of course, then is to try to limit the length and the depth of any drawdowns. But what you do is you have a portfolio of different strategies, of course. And then there's also a bit of diversification across, you know, markets, timeframes, strategy styles, et cetera, you know? So it's a big automated trading in, it's also a big passion of mine. And, you know, I'm willing to talk a lot about it. But maybe, you know, first we cover the causality because that's really how the market itself works. You see? So my understanding in 2019, you won an international Forex competition. That's correct. So, you know, that is also quite a story. And I would argue that my whole path is quite an outlier, you know, like all the things that happened, you know, they are quite unique. And yeah, that's correct. You know, there was a forest competition. I was contacted, we were invited to several locations in Europe. There was a group of traders all doing forex. And yeah, there were different stages. I think three stages. I won this competition also because I used the market causality. And, you know, that was also a very, very interesting experience, for sure. Right. So, do you just, did you create one program within the market causality or did you create multiple programs for different market conditions? Okay. So regarding the automated strategies, the bots, I run like at least eight different ones. So it's like a strategy portfolio, yes. So these are like eight different trading strategies. But regarding the causality, you see, that's a good chance now for me to explain that. So there are like very defined setups. You can trade as a price tag on the buy side, you know, using the market causality that leading information. I've defined them very clearly, yeah, for example, let's say there's a dumb money switch. And the dumb money goes from one side to the other. And the major top, the stops are cleared. And you know, like the market snaps into the opposite direction. And you know, other very defined setups. Now it's about to understand the market causality and it's not a strategy or anything. It's how the market really is, you know, like how you play it or how you trade it, whether you do it manually or whether you do it in an automated way, you know, that's kind of another chapter, you know, in this context. So also within the market causality, there are different setups that which are tradable. Now I have shown over the years on my channel, like the setups I successfully traded. But you know, there are more setups than that. And that's also something I've learned just the last two years also by, you know, other traders using that and coming up with their own approaches, you know, like there's some degree of freedom because to be very precise, you know, they are traders. They don't want to do day trading. They just want to place trades every few weeks. So they go to the higher time frames, you know, like the four-hour chart, the day chart. And for example, they just wait until the down money really goes significantly on one side. They do the trade and they just write the move, you know, like similar to traditional trend following. And if you look at Eurodela recently, for example, you know, which went down so much against the down money longies or you look at dollar yen, which did the reverse, which went up so much against the shorties. 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From penny stocks to big caps, ETFs, even the newest IPOs and short anything you like, with zero locate or hard to borrow fees. Start your evaluation, get funded with up to $200,000 in buying power. So you can go big without risking your own savings. And now you can also have unlimited time to reach the profit target. It's a game changer. Not ready to trade yet. Trade the pool offers a free demo and educational resources. Practice on live data, master the platform, and build confidence risk-free before you even pay a cent. Click the link in the show notes to start trading with trade the pool's capital. You know, these traders did very well just riding the move over days and weeks, because you could literally say how the dummy for whatever reason kept on trading on one side. So that's, for example, one way of trading. But there are also people who love day trading and more high frequency trading. For that, of course, you need to be more advanced. You need to have more experience. And you wait for very particular setups, yeah? For example, let's say, you know, like you'll see that there was a news announcement, and the dumb money goes very strongly on one side. And the market will retest the low, let's say, against the longies. These kind of things can be very tradable. So you mentioned a lot about dumb money. So we could call that ignorant money. And so for new traders, so what aspects of Forex trading is most challenging for new traders? And how can we mitigate this? Yes, that's a great question. First of all, allow me to emphasize Ian. Yes, we say the money. But we do not mean that in any disrespecting way, because these are all very intelligent people, smart people. But as you said yourself, they suffer from an informational disadvantage. That's it all. If we play poker now, Ian, yes? And you have cards, and I have cards on the table. If there's a player who can see our cards and who can also decide what the next card on the table is, that creates an informational advantage for that player. That makes us the dumb money. And that makes that player the smart money. So to allow me to use a chance to emphasize, look, there are very, very intelligent people around the world, dedicated people. But unfortunately, by not understanding how the market structure actually works, they never have the real chance in successfully trading Forex. You see, and that, by the way, that brings us back to our discussion from the beginning. That's the reason why experienced traders tend to stay away from Forex, knowing that these things are going on. They know it intuitively. You see what I mean? And that also creates this complexity and difficulty regarding Forex trading. So to answer your question regarding new traders, look, and I feel strongly about this. You do not need to study economics or read a lot of books. I mean, the fact is that there's a massive gap between economic theory and reality. And regarding books right now, there are no great books on the actual Forex market structure out there. I hope I can change that at some point. The best thing you can do, and really, the last thing I want is this here to sound like a sales pitch. But if you would ask me, my honest answer would be, watch, first of all, all the videos for my channel. Start with the educational videos. Understand all the things, such as the Germany positions, the stop hunting, how news announcements are used or abused, how there are short-term games as well. Watch all these videos. Yes, study it, try to understand it. Then maybe watch some of the live videos to see how this can be traded. Then at some point, maybe subscribe to the charts. First, do demo trading for a few weeks minimum. You need to get a feeling for how all these things unfold in front of your eyes. And then once you have passed all that, then you can think about going live and actually trading that. On the internet, there's so much wrong information. And when you see also people's comments on Forex trading, don't you see often that comment? Yeah, it's all about discipline. Don't you see that often? Yes, oh, yes, definitely. I want to disagree with that. It's not only about discipline. I guess you need discipline, but it's no way enough to have discipline. You need a proven edge next to discipline. If you do not have those two components, your chances of being successful are close to zero. That is the reality. And you know, the problem is we have this industry out there, which promotes all these different companies. They're selling indicators, they're selling eAs. They sell courses, they do whatever. And they try to draw this picture that everybody can just go and open an account and start trading and make money. That is not the case. And that's also, by the way, why I decided to make all of this also public. I always think of this retired engineer who maybe has savings of 200, 300K, maybe more, maybe less. Whatever the amount is, he goes to the internet. He sees all these advertisements by brokers, by trade seeding companies, whatever it is. And he thinks, come on, how difficult can it be? How difficult can it be to create a system where my predictions are higher than 50%. And these things, they end most of the time in a horrible manner. These people, they end up getting caught into this loop. They lose all their money. They get frustrated. So question for you. Have you tested out the commercially available program trading options out there? And if you have, what are their greatest strengths and weaknesses compared to a professional forex system, for example? Yeah, so I have tested pretty much everything over many years in. So we're talking about 10,000 of ours. I've tested all kinds of commercial indicators as well, commercial EAs as well, all these things. I mean, already a long time ago, my advice is clearly everybody listening. To stay away from commercial EAs. First of all, the problem is that these trading bots which are sold online, they show you all these great curves and the reality is that most of them are based on some kind of marketing system. So they create some stable return just to completely blow up. And I find that very, very wrong. It's misleading people. It always ends in a horrible manner, like-- and don't fall for it. If you're really a serious, about automated trading, then you need to create a strategy yourself. Nobody can do it for you. And let me be honest here, it is a multi-app process. You can't expect, and you have to do it also in the right way. You know what I mean? You need to take data. You need to incorporate a variable spread, slip pitch, commissions. You need to test your strategy over different data sets. You need to change your strategy. So to be honest with you, we are talking about a few thousand lines of code most likely. And do you know what I mean? It's a complex process. Now personally, I love that and I have done that. And my recommendation, even to purely manual trade us, is really to do some testing. Even if it's not your intent to create an automated strategy or to automate a large part of your trading, you will learn so much just by actually testing several strategies. You see? I see. So are the commercially available products out there? Are they user-friendly enough for newer traders to program in different scenarios so they can test out their ideas? Unfortunately, the general answer to that would be no. I cannot recommend anyone to buy a commercial bought and then to just test it a few weeks on demo and then to test it live. Because-- and you know what? It's also difficult to explain. But for some reason, if you do not understand every single part of such a complex strategy, for some reason also, you're not in a position to know whether, for example, this is the right market condition for an automated strategy or not, you see? So I have to be very honest here and warn people because of course, that's what many people are trying to do. They think, come on, I put down a few hundred dollars and buy some strategy online and I can use that to trade. So in the vast majority of cases, this will not end well. However, of course, at the same time, I should also say, I'm sure that somewhere around the world, there may be one bought which is commercially available, which is not too bad. And if somebody really invests work to understand every single component, given that the creator's willing to disclose those components that is, maybe that can also work for someone. But what I've seen so far, Ian, in the industry, is not great. And that's also maybe one of the themes. I'm very interested in showing reality. I don't want to sell people any dreams. Look, if you become a doctor, Ian, you have to go through-- so seven years of hard studying. After that, you have to go through all this learning as a practitioner. Now, of course, everybody can open a trading account and place some money. It's not something where they're legal restrictions, but the complexity, especially when we talk about forex, is high. That means to summarize that part. If you want to trade profitably, consistently, you need a proven edge. Like, for example, the market causality, it needs to be something very sophisticated, which actually gives you an edge. It can't just be some simple statistical system. Next to all, the other things such as discipline, mindset, et cetera, et cetera, that needs to be a given. If you then dedicate yourself to really commit yourself to the forex markets, you have a chance. And look, I'm in a position today, Ian, to say, yes. I mean, I have guided people through that successfully. And the few people who know my work, some of them do very, very well. And I'm very proud of that. But you need to really be realistic regarding your expectations. It's just the forex market is one of the most difficult financial markets to trade. That's a reality. Yeah, so you would suggest that newer traders or people who don't have much programming experience just simply don't get involved with these commercially available program trading options, is that correct? That's correct. So either really create your own strategy from scratch, and you don't need to be able to program. Find the programmer you like. Pay him to create a strategy you put together. Otherwise, the risk is that you get caught up in the actual programming, and you lose the view of the strategy itself, the big picture. That's a big risk. And you know, like really go down that path and create a strategy. And in the best case, a handful of strategies, which are consistently profitable. That means in which show you a good equity curve over let's say the last eight years, for example. Yes, so that there can be drawdowns. Yes, there can be flat periods all of that. But over let's say the last eight years, including like variable spreads, slippage and all that, the curve needs to be stable. If you are able to reach that, then, you know, you can demo test it, forward test it. And if the strategy works life as it does in your testing, you have a chance that you can take the strategy life. So can we get more specific save when we talk about dumb money and smart money? Is there a noticeable difference between how the dumb money and the smart money put on their positions and place their stops? Okay, that's the great question and the answers. Yes, it's not only a difference. It's literally the opposite. Okay, and maybe I start with a very simple example. You know, like there are these principles, everybody seems to believe. For example, you buy your market, you place your own stop below the recent low. Now, this is a worst thing you can do, you know what I mean? I mean, you're setting yourself up to just be short term stop hunted. Yeah, so all these things, people believe for whatever reason tend to be completely wrong. And that's by the way, why the statistics are so harsh as we discussed at the beginning. Now, let me give you a little hint already. The dumb money tends to trade reversals. So if you would ask me, Jamal, can you please give a very simplistic example? I would say, well, most of the time, the dumb money tries to enter cheaply into markets. So trade some kind of mean reversions ready, gee, you know, where they expect the price to go back to some kind of mean, some kind of average. And most of the time, that results in a failed reversal and the price going further in the previous direction, cleaning out the loss and the stops which are placed there by the money buyers. And even doing so in an exaggerated fashion, until, you know, like the ones who try to trade reversals, again and again and again, lose again and again and again. I see in your videos you show these green and red position bars, which you say represent dumb money positions. Where can we see the smart money positions? OK, that's a great question. So what you see mainly on the charts is basically the dumb money trades. Yeah, there are positions, there are stops. There are the different types of stops. We come to that in a second. We do not directly see the smart money. I used to have one indicator which was actually showing certain activities by the smart money. But by reverse engineering the market, it's not even necessary to directly see the smart money, believe it or not. All you need to do is to understand certain principles, which is, you know, like only a handful of principles. You need to understand the actual dynamics. And I would like to talk about that in a second, at least one specific example. And, you know, that's more than enough to avoid being stop hunted yourself, to avoid being positioned hunted, to avoid getting lured into the market and ending up with a horrible position which, in the worst case, ends up blowing your account, you see? So maybe let's talk about an example. So it's just what you see. I mean, on the 5th of September, I sent you a chart of euro dollar on the forward time frame. You remember? And you could see already then that, you know, there were a lot of dam money buyers trying to buy the market, expecting euro dollar to do a reversal up. And many of those guys actually placed their stops below the low, you remember? Yes. And then when you look at the screenshot from yesterday, again, of euro dollar, you see that it went all the way down to 0.956. So it actually what happened in the days in between, more and more long is kept on buying euro dollar. And what happened, the smart money, I was pushed euro dollar down, again and again, creating dollar strength and taking out all the stops until today, until like three hours ago, where we had a little bit of shorties coming to the market and guess what? There's a little pullback in euro dollar right now. 0.964, you see? But so let's talk a bit more in detail. Let's assume we have that scenario from the 5th of September. Let's say, you know, it's euro dollar. Let's say the market is full of down money, longies, yes? Now, let's assume that above the price, let's say back then 1.01 or whatever it was, there is a big stop target, yeah? So like a big yellow line. Now the stop target. So are we talking about how many traders have put their stops in at very similar levels? Exactly. So let's assume it's the same market structure, like on the screenshot, that longies and euro dollar. And let's just assume that above the price, you know, like let's say 40, 50 pips away, there is a big stock accumulation, yeah? So where a lot of stops accumulated. Here's the thing, Ian. And that's also counterintuitive. The smart money algorithm has no reason whatsoever to directly push your dollar up and take out the upper stock. Because if they would do so, Ian, all these down money longies, which are already in the market and the positions are above the price, they would temporarily get into profit, isn't it? Yes. So, you know, like that's the reason why, in such a scenario, that smart money will not take out even a big stop accumulation, if that would imply that some of the down money positions would get into profit. Well, wouldn't they look at the size of the longs and the size of the shorts and determine, okay, well, if we push up the price, then the longies will be profitable. But if the size of the longies is relatively small compared to those who are short and have a big, you know, many stops at a higher level, is a smart money tempted then to just say, okay, that's okay. We'll let some of the longies make some profit and we'll drive up the price to hit these stops, forcing the shorts to cover their stops. And if that is a case, does a smart money calculate the amount of money necessary to push up the price to trigger these stop losses? And do they ever come into a situation where, hey, it's not really worth it, they calculate the amount cost to push up the price, and then they back away because it's too expensive. Okay, that's an excellent comment and you are exactly right. That's exactly how it is. So, that's right, exactly like you say. So, and that's also where we get to a bit more advanced topics such as the dumb money tolerance. So there is some dumb money tolerance around the price, otherwise the market would move as much as it did. But maybe let me give you a very good example to explain this point which you have talked about now because that makes it, I think, very clear. Let's assume in, exactly like you say, we have dumb money longies in the market, yeah? There is a stop above the price of the dumb money shorties. Now, let's assume here that we have a big news item, let's say US unemployment being published, yes? Yes. Now, guess what? Let's say the unemployment rate is way lower than expected, 2% lower than expected. So what does this smart money do? They push your dollar down against all these longies, taking them out and pricing in this, let's say economic plausibility for the outside world because it looks like, come on. The dollar got stronger against the euro because unemployment in the US was lower than expected. Therefore, your dollar went down, isn't it? Right, that makes sense. Now, but let's now take the opposite scenario where the news result is suddenly much worse than expected. So unemployment is suddenly 2% higher than expected. So they would need to let your dollar go up and have some dollar weakness in order to price it in. Now, in this scenario we discussed, we said we have longies in the market, so those longies would win. So, but we also said there's a stop above the price. So guess what, Ian? They go up, they quickly take the stop out, which wasn't the upper side, like 40, 50 pips of the shorties. And what do they do, Ian? They instantly go down again. And that's a typical price action we see these days. And that, by the way, is the reason why you don't have new traders anymore in Forex because the willingness exactly like you said before, Ian, the willingness of the smart money to either go after the dam money positions or to go after a specific stop area or to create some economic possibility. Of course, fully depends on the amount of the dam money as well as the overall market structure. It's exactly like you said. And also what you say in the second sentence is true as well. There are scenarios where the picture is not clear enough. And by the way, these are the cases where we as causality traders stay away because we are not at power with the smart money. We are not 10 steps behind them like the dam money, but we as causality traders are still two or three steps behind the smart money. So we wait for very clear situations. Whenever there's a scenario like the one you described where you can clearly see which of the factors will be prioritized by the smart money. At least we don't risk our capital. - I see. Would it make sense for the dam money to not use regular stop loss orders and just use mental stop losses because by using a regular stop loss, they make their intentions known and puts a big bullseye on their forehead for the smart money to run their stops? - Unfortunately, the answer to that question is no because if you do not use a stop in your trading, your downside is unlimited. So one single move could blow your account. You know, you have to use stops one way or another to protect your downside, you know? But what do you say? Excellent that you say it because many people come to that conclusion and guess what, that's a trap in itself. Because if you don't use a stop, yeah? Eventually there will be some move which is so unusual. Remember, for example, the Euro-Swissie and you know the so-called flash crash, thousands of papers in movements, et cetera, where you put your whole account at risk. So the solution to that is not to not use stops. However, I have to say in our fairness that why I also recently, more and more, promote using stops yourself and actually going for balanced risk return, et cetera. There are people who trade the causality and they do not place a stop on the market. However, Ian, they either already placed a hedge. So let's say they want to buy you a dollar, they already place a sell stop below the price where, you know, their position will be hedged or if they don't even do that, they will use very low leverage in, you know? Like that's another thing. You can destroy any strategy by over leveraging, yeah? Even the causality, if you don't use reasonable risk parameters, you can still mess it up. - Right, curious, where does the smart money hang out? I mean, I've heard of this thing called dark pools, do many of their transactions and their positions, if we had access to the dark pools, could we see their positions in there? - Yes. So, yes, so first of all, think about the smart money players as some kind of cartel. They will not trade against each other. It wouldn't make any sense. Similar to the prisoner dilemma, you know, in economics, they will not end up trading against each other. Their algorithms are aligned. They don't need manual intervention. This is all automated, this is done by, you know, like programmers, they use certain things such as dark pools and other things I'm sure to align, you know, like the overall market making process, let's say. And, you know, they have price control. And please, again, I would like to emphasize that, don't take it from me, you know? I mean, I have done a video where I have summarized it and I've put together some use articles and all kinds of evidence. You see, but I can tell you right now Ian, if you talk to any senior professional from the industry, whether it's an investment banker, whatever, they all know exactly what's going on. And again, allow me to emphasize one more, Ian. It, all of this may be necessary to a certain point because think about it, Ian, if you would be a market maker and you just underspread between the bid and ask, would you take the full price risk? I mean, there is no perfect hatch neither, you see? Like, it's intuitive that, you know, there is some control also on the market by certain entities, you know, which provide liquidity as it's called, you know? If you ask me, it has never really be different also in historical terms in any financial markets, you know? Like, the difference is, Ian, that these days, you know, we went through a whole phase of algorithmization of automation, that's a difference, you know? Like, the market is efficient in the sense of the fact that it's a fully oiled machine and they, what they do, works very well for them and it's very repetitive, you see? And to come back to our discussion at the beginning, please, if you are novice and you listen to all that, understand this is why you need to understand how this works if you want to trade successfully because otherwise, you simply fall victim to those games which are plain, it's simple as that. Can retail traders ever get access to seeing dark pool activity and therefore adjusting their trading strategy? - Retail traders do not really have a chance to get access to any of that. I mean, I offer to see my charts on the website. You can subscribe, it's called MKWeb and you see my charts live with everything on it. You see, that seems to be the best chance they have. And please understand, again, Ian, you know, I'm a full-time trader. I created this product because that's what I would have needed myself when I started out. You see, if I, when I first started out of Warix, had this tool, I would have been the happiest man in the world. It didn't exist. So, you know, I created it. And by the way, I created that after I published, you know, these principles because I started around four years ago publishing screenshots and predictions and all that. And then some people said, okay, Jamal, we got it. But can you offer something? So I had to go back to the drawing board, you know, put together a plan to, you know, make it possible that people can see their chart and trade them, you know. So that was a whole process and it took a lot of time because, you know, as I said before, I'm trading first of foremost. So I did that kind of by the side. But yeah, it's completed and people can use it. But look, I mean, the in the pot message here is that there is an informational advantage by these players. If you do not put in the homework, you're easy prey, you know, and there is no simple solution to that. If you say, okay, you know what, I will just not do stop. So I can't get stopped out. What happens? You will eventually end up on the Domani side. And you know, you will have a big drawdown. And what happens then, Ian, people try to average down. They try to trade a cheaper price. And the whole downward spiral gets worse and worse and worse. - Excuse the last interruption here. This is Tessa. We hope you're enjoying this episode so far. If you love the podcast, please give chat with traders the best review you can on whatever platform you're listening from. This will help us to keep the episodes coming. Also, if you haven't subscribed to our email list, please hop on to chatwithtraders.com and click on subscribe so we can keep you posted of information that may be of importance. Thank you. Now back to the chat with our guest. - Does a typical Forex trading platforms allow traders to see where all the stop losses are and at what levels? - Not really. I mean, as far as I know, the last time I checked, which is a while ago, I mean, they're out there. They're different commercial offerings. You know, like there used to be like services where you could at least see, let's say, some stops or something. Unfortunately, this is not enough. And maybe explain that because that brings us also to the next point. Look, stops in particular, Ian, yes. They are important, but they are not the dominant factor of such. Because guess what? If you have a clear target above the price, yeah. Let's say you have a big medium-term stop accumulation. Yes, you know that eventually it will be taken. However, on average, I would estimate that around eight to 10 counter moves will be implemented by the smart money I was. Before, they do the actual main target run. You see, I call this pre-main run counter move. You understand? That's maybe something we should explain a bit because that's also where people can get their flavor. And that's also where things are a little bit counter-intuitive because most of us, if we see a big line on the chart, and we know, okay, the price wants to take that level, we tend to stay, okay, abide towards the line. But no, if you want to be more sophisticated and accurate, you need to understand things such as the time and range principle. The smart money I was in and not in a rush, they do not need to quickly take out any stop of that matter, you see, like they have all the time in the world. So what do they do? They make sure that any of the money positions which are placed in front of that target are what I call priced in. There are counter moves against them. Sometimes the market goes flat for 10 hours, just to make sure that any day traders, you know, whatever, who try to trade what's the other target, they close their position before the move. You see, now it's important to understand by implementing those principles, such as the pre-main run counter principle and the time and range principle, and so on. By implementing them constantly, they make sure in that on the dam money side, no matter whether people bought or sold or whether they trade reversals or breakouts or pullbacks or whether they are scalping, as is a collective, not individually, but as a collective, they lose. You see, and that's hopefully something which is now also a realization for people listening to this. Because it's also counter to the E&O, you would say, come on. I mean, first of all, when we look at the naked price chart, there are big trends, they exist. There are breakouts, which are followed by a proper move. There are reversals where the market suddenly completely changes direction. These things exist on the naked chart, but one has to understand how the mechanics are because the price is just the output from the market structure, not the other way around. - So just to summarize, the word stop hunting is a word that you use to describe a cartel-like action of smart money that concentrates their trades to push the price up or down to hit stop losses, which will then trigger a cascading sell-off, for example, which will push the price down further and then thereby enable the smart money to flip their positions at a profit. Is that accurate? - That's correct, that's exactly right. So that means that the stop targets are kind of the final face. These are the moves, so the price moves towards those target levels, they are kind of the last face where the smart money finishes out. Because first of all, market participants who have the stops at those levels, they get kicked out at a loss, the ones who didn't do stops, they get overlairaged in the worst case, they get a margin call, the ones who try to just hold over, they make it into a deep and long drawdown. So that's exactly right. We often see these days, Ian, that the market goes to the target level and then once by the pip almost, the target has been cleared, they snap back up, you see, that's typical house key moves, we see a lot of these days. This is why, like Forex is destroying so many simplistic systems, you know, the ones who try to trade trends, they get whipsawed, the ones who try to trade reversals, they suffer from failed reversals over and over again. You see like this erratic price action, which looks very irregular to like the outsider, is the result of these kinds of constellations, as simple as that. To the point, where sometimes, and again, please watch all the videos opposite over the years, it's very repetitive, you see these things, often I could capture the camera, you know, how the price goes exactly to the target and then snaps all the way back up once the target has been cleared. There is no way for someone sitting at a naked price chart, you know, to cope with that if you ask me. - I see, can you give us a specific example of what you look for to enter and exit from a trade. - Sure, so that depends on, you know, like which kind of set up I am trading. I mean, let's talk about a few specific examples. So let's talk about maybe the post stop on trade because, you know, this is an easier set up to trade. So that's in a situation where the market of all is rather ranging, there is a clear target, the target is taken out, the price overshoots maybe a little, and then the price falls back into the range. This can be tradable because, you know, like you can see in front of you that the job is finished, the stops have been cleared. The smart, the dumb money goes also to the opposite direction, you know, so that's the other thing, like most of the time when you observe the causality life, you will be surprised how well the smart money I go, tricks work, you know, like they work over and over again. You know, sometimes by simply drawing a certain pattern on the chart, let's say, you know, like they draw like a double top. So people for some reason think a double top is, you know, a place to sell the market. And then suddenly, you know, there's a big strong price but to the upside and what looked beforehand as a double top, doesn't now look as like a double top at all, you know, like it looks just like, you know, so messy, messy price action, you see. So I see, and that's a direct result of there being a lot of stop losses right above that double top for them to trigger. And if there wasn't those stop losses there, for example, or say the amount was very small, would the smart money say, hey, it's not really worth fooling with this here. That's exactly the point and that's the reason. And why, of course, if you look at the historic chart, of course, you find double tops and double bottoms, you know, and W's, of course, you find these patterns. But like you say, exactly like you say, the only reason why these patterns than were successful is because, you know, either the smart, the that money was again on the wrong side, you know, all the job has been completed. The main target has been cleared out. You see, that's exactly right. So now to come back to your question. So one particular set, I would be, for example, to to wait, and you know, then straight the counter move after the stop one. But let's talk about a second set up, the so-called damn money switch, because right now when you look at your dollar, you see this nice move up. And as you, if you would see my charts, you would see that the damn money you switched from long to short. So within the last eight, nine hours, we suddenly have sellers, damn money sellers coming into the market, the red bars. That is the only reason why right now, as we speak, your dollar is going up against those shorties. Such a set up, I call it damn money switch, because the money literally switches from one side to the other, can be, for example, a tradable set up. What we typically do in those cases is, we wait at least until the previous loan has been cleared, which has happened here, by the way. So the low zero dollar around the 0.9566 level had been cleared. And then the price comes back up into the range and damn money sellers keep on coming into the market. In that case, you can buy and trade the actual damn money switch. This is a second example. But allow me to give you a third example, which is very relevant looking at the recent weeks, which is a squeeze. And I feel very strongly about that one, because people are so confused. When you look at dollar yen, again, of look at, since fact this year, it went up 3,000 pips, isn't it? Yeah, it was a big move. You see, they went up and up. There were only two pullbacks, even. Apart from that, it was like a strong move to the upside. Now, that's a typical squeeze move. And we actually have a separate indicator. That's the indicator you see on the bottom of the chart, where the squeeze itself gets shown. This indicator shows you overall. It's a damn money overall, rather long or rather short. And is it increasing in that direction? And this is a typical squeeze move. That means, for whatever reason, the damn money keeps on selling to the market over weeks, in this case, which is crazy. And the price goes up. No, you can, as a causality trader, you can trade that. But you will, of course, trade an expensive price is there. That's something where people sometimes have a psychological barrier. And again, it looks like counterintuitive, because you see a chart, which already went from the lower left corner of your screen to the upper right. And then you decide to buy it after it came up so much. But you can absolutely do that if you are a causality trader. You can enter expensively into the market and write the next 100 pips up. And then personally, also, I recommend yourself, in those cases, to use a clear stop. Just in case, that, for example, there's a damn money switch, or damn money leaves the market, all of a sudden. And the price actually turns. You just get out. You understand? I see. So on your videos, I notice that you have these position bars where you show where the smart money is, and then both long and short, and then the stop levels. Do you adjust your trading strategy such that you will wait until those stops get cleared out first? Do you take that into consideration? Well, I'm obviously experienced. So I also trade towards the targets. So it allows me to elaborate. If, you know, and that's actually also a good strategy. If you see, you know, first of all, Ian, it's important that three different types of stops. OK, there are short term stops, there are medium term stops, and there are long term stops. On our charts, you see the medium term stops as orange and yellow. You see the short term stops as blue, and the long term stops as pink. To make a long story short, Ian, the most important stops, especially when it comes to actually trading those moves themselves are the medium term stops. You will see quickly that eventually, those medium term stops get taken out, you know, after the smart money I was doing, what they have to do. You can absolutely trade those moves. However, as I said before, you have to take into consideration that for each of those target runs towards the target, on average, there are, there's a number of counter moves literally to the opposite direction. So what you can do, Ian, and you can also work with limit orders, by the way, that's very, very convenient. You can say, you know what? I see, let's say, the cable right now, look there, medium term stops around the 1.072 level. You know, eventually the price goes there, but you know, also that right now, it's not a great entry price. You have some shorties in the way also, and you have stops on the upper side. So why don't you place a limit to sell, you know, let's say 50, 60 clips above the price with the target, you know, at the, just a few clips above the medium term stops. You see what I mean? So the causality enables you to make those kinds of precise decisions. And to answer your question again, yes, I traded also on the live trades a lot of medium term stop runs. The easiest scenarios to trade the MTS runs is within the Swiss, Ian. That means, for example, you wrote a lot so during the last weeks, and you can see the videos I've made during that time period. You see the longies are coming into the market. You see the big medium term stops of the longies below the price. So you can literally short, even though it's an expensive entry, and you can place your own target just above the medium term stops actulations, you know. And as I said before, in the best case, also your own stop in a similar distance on the upside, above potential longies, because most likely if the price goes against you, it will turn again to the downside at the longie positions. I see. So we've been talking a lot about short term manipulation by the smart money. And I'd like to transition the conversation to government intervention and price supporting or price suppression in the long term. And as we saw last week, Japan's action in their markets by selling off US treasuries and then buying their greatly weakened currency with the US dollar that they just received. Was this action a surprise to you? And do you see more of this coming by other countries that have a weak currency? - Okay, that's a great topic as well. Okay, so let's talk about that. Looking at dollar in and the example you mentioned, here's how that works in a nutshell. First of all, central banks, no matter which currency in general, they of course are concerned about currency rates when it comes to very large deviations from certain levels, yeah? Like the central banks literally do not really care much about short term moves. So you know, like a few hundred tips is nothing for them. However, as you mentioned, if we talk about the multi-thousand-pit move and this affects, you know, like whole economies and world trade as it does, no question about it. Of course, you know, the central banks eventually will do something. However, let's take a close look what they did exactly. Now, when dollar in went up already, I think like 2,200, 2,300 tips, the Japanese central banks started to make certain comments, you know, so they start, like always, they start to, you know, give certain announcements and unscathed announcements in the press, which then end up on our spot boxes, et cetera, no? And as you remember, before the last statement, they already said, oh, you know, looking at recent foreign prices, we will consider, you know, what to do monetary policy wise, or you know, like how this will affect trade, et cetera. Now, the reality is, first of all, it's all a little bit of a game because the central bank way is aware that any common say mechanism's direction can already change currency prices. They know that very well. In fact, as a footnote, there's a whole economic theory, how, you know, you can manage inflation expectations, interest rate change, expectations, et cetera. However, as you can see, what happened after they started to make those comments, shortest came in the market again. So the market went up, you know, another good thousand bips up to the point where we talked about, like, 144, 145. And then, you know, at those kind of price levels, they started to, you know, make stronger statements, you know, and the market started to lose momentum. So what I want to say to make a long story short is to summarize the whole case. And it's interesting to you board it up because, you know, that's a bit more advanced. Yes, the central banks will, of course, always have a mind what the Forex market is doing. But, first of all, they're certainly not concerned about short and price movements. In my personal opinion, Ian, they are very well aware of all these dynamics I've discussed today. But, you know, it's not that that is something which is very important for them. Whenever the market goes really out of line and we have serious macro economic consequences, like in this case, they eventually will do something. However, let's be honest here also, at the end of the day, Ian, look, Japan with this week, Ian will have, you know, a lot of exporting, you see? So, since the country is a big exporting country, it may be in the interest in, at least for a certain time period, you know, to have a weaker currency because that can sometimes boost, you know, exports and all that. You see what I mean? So, considering that there's the distinction between policy-making entities and monetary policy politicians and, you know, businesses and the domestic economy and their potential to export, et cetera, you know? Like, overall, when you look at the big picture, you can see that different interests at stake. - Yeah, yeah, that's a good description. So, wrapping up, what key advice would you give to new traders in the Forex market? - Okay, so, first and foremost, you know, after this little insight, you got today, yeah? Be aware that when you're starting out as a trader and you want to focus on Forex, the odds are really against you. That's a fact. Take this as a given. Now, if you're really, really, let's say, as crazy as me, and you're passionate about the market as me, and you're willing to put in effort, yes, and to put in hours and to learn how you can trade that market and you're serious about it, yes, this is achievable. Okay, be realistic. You will not get rich overnight, okay? You will not make loads of money in your first two, three years. But if you, you know, have the discipline, which is required in this game, if you put in the hours, if you set yourself up for success by having a proven edge, you know, by having your risk management in place and all these things, it can be an amazing path for you. Okay, the potential is there. It has certain aspects. No other financial market can offer you. Okay, and if you are in control, okay, it's an awesome thing to do because, you know, like, you're not just trading some small peripheral market, you know, some futures on a particular bone or whatever, you know, you're basically kind of trading the world. But if you want to be successful in this endeavor, be realistic, okay, do not believe what's shown to you on the internet. Always understand what are the incentives of, you know, the people talking and explaining, you know what I mean? Like, are they actual traders? You know, what's the evidence? You know, have they actually, over a longer time period also, shown how things really work? Or do they just want to make a quick buck? Okay, be very, very skeptical. And then, you know, look, the upside in this journey is, first of all, you will get to know yourself on a very deep level because, believe it or not, by trying to become a successful trader, you will really understand your own psychology. You will understand your emotions, okay, your incentives. You will understand a lot of truth about yourself because it is necessary that you know yourself very well. Otherwise, you will make mistakes. You will quickly lose money and you will become a victim, you know, to other market participants who are very well prepared in this game. So be aware that whenever you click the button in for it, you made a decision where you are very confident that this risk you took on that trade is worth it and other institutions around the world and brilliant minds around the world will be beaten eventually by that decision you made. And since, you know, since it's very necessary to be very humble as a trader, you know, that's by the way, even as you know, better than me, all the good traders, they are nice people, they're very humble, they can't afford to be arrogant. You cannot afford to be arrogant or ignorant in this game. Stop, you know, coming with ideas or expectations or theories to the game, stop it. Take reality as it is, okay, try to become the best decision maker you can be. Okay, have realistic expectations. Do your homework, I mean, I put you on my screen now for years in, I've made screenshots from every single market. Sometimes, you know, every few hours, I have thousands, 10,000 screenshots. I had an order to come to this age today. I had to go to a very long process. It was a lot of pain, let me be honest. But, you know, look, I could, by documenting these factors, I was able in the end by never giving up to come to this position today. Well, you know, I can give you that information first hand. And, you know, that's the reason also why I was really excited to be in the show today. - Thank you very much for coming on the show, Jamal. How can our listeners get in touch with you? - Yeah, so if you are interested in that kind of stuff, you know, my YouTube channel's got S&E FX. I still do like, you know, some live updates there. I don't do so much live trading anymore these days, but, you know, on a regular basis, I still post videos there. The website is www.sne-fx.com. So there, you know, there's also a forum. You can talk to others who have, you know, learned to become causality traders. You can consider to subscribe to, you know, like the screenshots and all that. And very or not, I was able to be on the podcast. Keep on doing what you're doing, guys. It's great, you know, I really appreciate your efforts, you know, to talk to traders around the world. It's so interesting. I've been listening to your podcasts for quite some years. And it's, you know, even if there's some trade-out trades at different market, it's always interesting to, you know, get insights, you know, regarding their methods, their thoughts. So what you're doing is fantastic. You know, it's probably the modern equivalent to Jekshvagas market wizards. (laughs) - Well, great, thank you very much, Jamal. Looking forward to talking with you again soon. You've reached the end of this episode of chat with traders. But rest assured, there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon. So to stay updated with each great new release, subscribe to the podcast and iTunes. And we'd love it if you leave a rating and review. We'll catch you next time on chat with traders. (upbeat music) (upbeat music)

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Il mercato Forex è il più grande al mondo, con elevata liquidità e costi di transazione bassi, ma presenta statistiche di perdita molto alte per i trader retail (fino al 95% in 8 mesi).
  2. La struttura del mercato Forex è caratterizzata da manipolazione e "stop loss hunting" da parte degli operatori istituzionali ("smart money"), che rende il prezzo erratico e difficile da interpretare senza una conoscenza specifica.
  3. Jamal Adib, ex broker, ha dedicato anni a studiare la causalità del mercato Forex, sviluppando algoritmi e strumenti per decodificare questa struttura e prevedere i movimenti di prezzo, vincendo anche una competizione internazionale.
  4. Il suo approccio si basa sull'osservazione empirica della struttura di mercato, derivando regole generali per il trading manuale, e successivamente sull'incorporazione di questi principi in strategie di trading automatizzate diversificate.

Summary:

L'episodio del podcast "Chat with Traders" presenta un'intervista con Jamal Adib, un esperto trader Forex. Adib spiega che, nonostante il Forex sia il mercato finanziario più grande e liquido al mondo, la stragrande maggioranza dei trader retail perde denaro a causa della sua struttura unica. Il mercato è infatti influenzato dalla manipolazione e dalla caccia agli stop loss da parte degli operatori istituzionali ("smart money"), che rendono l'azione dei prezzi apparentemente caotica.

Dopo aver subito perdite iniziali, Adib ha dedicato anni allo studio di migliaia di grafici, sviluppando una comprensione profonda della "causalità di mercato". Questo lavoro, supportato da strumenti di analisi dei dati sugli ordini, gli ha permesso di decodificare i principi operativi degli algoritmi degli smart money e di prevedere i movimenti di prezzo. Questa conoscenza è alla base sia del suo trading manuale (documentato su YouTube) che delle sue strategie automatizzate, che formano un portafoglio diversificato.

La sua competenza è stata confermata dalla vittoria in una competizione Forex internazionale nel 2019. Adib sottolinea che, senza comprendere questa struttura di mercato, le possibilità di successo per un trader sono molto basse.

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A key challenge is market manipulation, including stop-loss hunting by 'smart money,' which contributes to high loss rates among traders. Understanding the specific market structure and dynamics of Forex is crucial for success.

After early losses, he spent years studying Forex market structure, analyzing thousands of charts, and developing back-tested algorithms. This led to winning an international Forex competition and creating tools to understand market causality.

Forex is the world's largest financial market with high liquidity, 24/5 trading, and low transaction costs. It offers massive daily transaction volumes and significant price movements, making it attractive for active trading.

Market causality refers to the underlying principles and mechanics of how the Forex market operates, particularly how price action is influenced by factors like order flow and smart money algorithms. Understanding this helps in predicting price moves.

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