District Twelve (Ep. 18): Michael Lange

[Music] Welcome to District 12, a Ghostrunner production. My name is Eli Miller. I'm a law student for Republic Policy Researcher and Blayflong New Yorker, and I read a blog called Ghostrunner where I write about New York City politics and other stuff I'm obsessed with. I'm starting this podcast because I want to learn more about the upcoming congressional race in the district I grew up in, New York 12. Our guest today is Michael Lang. You do not need me to introduce Michael Lang. But here he goes. In the summer of 2021, Michael Lang started the narrative wars, his personal sub-stack. A few days later, Lang wrote a 6,000 word essay about East New York's former Assemblyman Charles Barron, his decades-long career, and his lasting influence within Brooklyn's Black Socialist Movement. And then he was off. Since then, he's written a sprawling magazine length essay about the history of New York City politics at about a once-month clip. Lang has also become one of the sharpest analysts of the dynamics of M.S.E. politics today, and particularly of the rise of the D.S.A. And I consider him to be the city's premier election mappner. He has a staggering depth of knowledge of the city's election districts and political demographics. There's no one else in New York City media who can speak more knowledgeably, but who lives in what N.Y.C. micro-nabrahood, who they might vote for, and what this means for a closely-condested upcoming election. It feels too obvious to say, but I'll say it anyway. Michael Lang has been a huge inspiration to me personally, as I've embarked on this project. He has achieved enormous amount of success, doing consistently excellent work completely on his own, and he's been incredibly generous and supportive to people like me who are interested in following in his footsteps. Lang and I had a wide-ranging conversation about the state of the race, the dynamics that are going to prove decisive down the stretch, and who we think is going to win. We spoke on Wednesday, May 27th, so some of this might be out of date. I really hope you enjoy my conversation with the city's premier election mappner in New York 12's own Michael Lang. All right, Michael Lang. Thank you so much for coming up on the podcast. I'm glad you're going to be here. Thanks for having me. Your beat is citywide, so there are many different elections that you're obsessed with right now, but just for New York 12, help me set the scene for a little bit. The big question I get all the time is, why should I care so much about this race? It seemed like they all agree, and I don't know if it matters that much anyway. What are the stakes of this race? Why should people be as obsessed with it as you and I are? That's a great question. I think you're even more obsessed with it than I am. To give it credit. I don't know if that's good or bad, but I think to foreground this, I mean, you've got a whole podcast around it. So credit to you. Why does this race matter? Yeah, I mean, the candidates do agree on a lot of things. I think it's just this congressional seat, being where it is, given who the constituents are, given the cultural and media institutions in the district, you're inheriting a mantle that I think is still very much real. I think it's worth discussing what roles and things that we preemptively ascribe to things in 2026 that might have no real actual standing with society and things like that, especially politically. But I do think that this district is like, it really is a world unto itself and it comes with a lot. And I think it's almost inevitable that, again, given the way our media and our culture is now that the person represents this district will have an outsized voice beyond that of a sole congress person, again, particularly than it's like kind of generational turnover. This representative, I don't want to say it's inevitable, but will be really well positioned to be one of the leading voices in the future of the Democratic Party. And again, that's just a given based on the constituency and the opportunities available to that next representative. So in some ways, you're, you're electing, I think, a lot more than just one member of Congress of 435 here and then framing those debates in the years after. And like, you know, this, this congressperson can then become a governor, could become a senator, even if they stay in the house, you know, they will, you know, you walk around those buildings in Washington, right? Like, most of the members of the House of Representatives, even if you're really into it, it's like, oh, you know, I'm really heard of you. You're not really, you know, like not a lot of them matter to be honest, especially when it's outside leadership. This one will surely matter. So that's why this race matters. Yeah. And then I think also there's the effect on the Democratic Party nationally. And this will have effects down 10 years. I think this also, I think we'll get into this more as we go. There's the sort of local proxy battle that actually has very little to do, I think, with the policy stakes of, you know, national politics. But this is an array of very interesting groups that are choosing one side or another. And I think that which groups end up having influence on that person and also just end up having sort of more or less clout in local elections in your city, in general, I think that that's the other thing that I would highlight. I think we'll just state that more. So now that we've set the scene, what's your gut feel? We're almost exactly four weeks out from Election Day, which means we're less than three weeks out from the start of early voting, which means that if you're working for one of these campaigns, you are losing your freaking mind. Set the scene, you know, I wouldn't normally ask this, but you're Michael Egg, you're a DJ and like, I am. Oh boy. So put it in percentage terms. How would you set the market? I think before I set the market or whatnot, let me just back up, right? When this race first started, as had the race been two years or four years ago, when I'm Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Meloney were kind of thrown in the district and they had to hide it out. Most folks, including me, including you, frame this race is like, well, like, you know, there'll be some interesting candidates, but it'll probably just come down to the West Side versus the East Side and very quickly kind of those two sides of Central Park coalesce behind their respective candidates. Michael Ashir on the West Side, George Bygierry Nadler, quite the resume. He has certainly in an Alex Boris, you assembly member for the East Side, you know, represents some of, I believe, the wealthiest assembly district in New York State, kind of park Avenue to fifth corridor there and then some of Midtown. Oh, look, Ali. Oh, look, Ali, as my father said, and now I'm just taking it, you know, I guess that's what happens, right? At a certain point, you become old enough for your coin, it becomes that of your sons. So that was kind of the initial lens that I think a lot of people took to the race, but then, you know, there was like, there was a Jack Schlossberg moment. There was like, oh, George Conway is in the race. So those are Romney Republicans who now vote for Kamala Harris and Andrew Cuomo, right? So I do think there is actually like a constituency in this district that is very much like George Conway. It's just that constituency is nowhere close to a majority let alone a plurality of the vote. You know, again, I had the good fortune to officiate one of the first forms where all of the candidates were there and George Conway was like, oh, wow, we got George Conway to come. He has to come to the other ones, and this guy, I mean, we'll get to lack of depth and answers in a bit, but I mean, he was, there was a lot of Trump and it was very thin on the other stuff. So, you know, he's like pulling the double digits and I don't think he's ever gotten near at that kind of upper tier. And I also think that is the race progresses and then narrows to two. His vote circle decreased. The other one is Jack Schlossberg. Now, Jack Schlossberg, of course, had a real moment, right? Like I would say maybe a month, a month and a half ago. And it's like, wow, he's, he's leading the polls with 22%. In this district of all these institutions, it is very hard to win as a candidate not connected to those places, right? I think this is like this kind of the last district of institutions, I would say. And by that, I mean, local democratic clubs, like, like, neighborhood, political infrastructure. I think it's one of the last places for that. Schlossberg was actually the one person who could have transcended that, right? Because of his familial background because he's young. And, you know, like, I guess there was some social media potential there. Like, he actually, I think, had like on paper. He had the tools to do that. But I never really thought that he could because it was kind of clear, like, okay, you get him in a room next to particularly again, the two legislators from Albany. And it's like, okay, you know, there's a, there's a quality gap, you know, just to be totally honest about it. And I think you have to actually convert the eyeballs. Like, yes, yeah, that's great. And it's like congrats. Like, he has the highest name, I think, but he was only at like 21, 22%. And I remember again, doing that debate. And, you know, he had some not great answers about Israel and the West Bank, like, like, objectively, no matter which side of the issue you're on, it was just like, oh, like, he kind of doesn't know what he wants to say or he knows what he wants to say, but he feels like he can't say it. That type of thing. And I was like, oh, this is like rough, you know, because it's one thing to like see it in person versus hear about it. And then people are coming up to me afterwards and they're like, you wouldn't believe it. That was actually one of his better forums. And I'm like, okay, like dead on arrival. I'm sorry. You know, I can't. And I think it was a candid to see that with more exposure was always kind of deaf. in to thin out, right? And so I think that, you know, for a while, it's like, well, Schlaasberg Conway, but now those folks have, I think, receded somewhat, I mean, they're polling kind of speaks to that. And now it's-- And that point, yeah. And this is this will set us up. A pattern that I've noticed in recent Newer Sea elections is that when they're first passed the post, especially, they often polless to two people, two person, even in big fields. So, you know, Sleeva collapsed down the stretch and Cuomo got most of his vote share. Actually, like, even in the ranked choice one, you know, Adrian Adams and Delen and Iry voters, like, really saw the ready in the role. Wall and basically just voted for Mombani first. Even Bradley under two, you know, was reduced to 11%. Yeah, no, oftentimes it's the voters just being like, it's a two horse race. I'm going to tactically be right here. What percentage do you think will go-- I guess it's going to be like 10% is someone besides Boris or Lashar? Is it going to be like 30% is someone besides Boris or Lashar? I think there's so many candidates that it'll probably be like 20 or 25, to be honest, but I do think that like the world in which Jack Schlossberg or George Conway is getting 20% in their own is rapidly diminishing. You know, I mean, again, I don't want to totally write them off. But I think they're in a position now where as this race is increasingly framed as two people, which I think is like the honest ring of the room, right? That will work against them. Like I could see Conway going all the way down to 5%. I could see Schlossberg ending in the single digits genuinely. And yeah, and then that kind of sets up his arms right so you're asking me to handicap it. And I think like if you put my life on the line, like a month out, I'd probably be like, well, I'm still taking the West side candidate, Michael Asher, but there would be a big, I mean, I wouldn't feel great about, you know, and I think that that Alex Boris has reclined interview, like that's worth three to five percent in this district for sure. I think he has he at least has like an identifiable issue that is close with, you know, that's associated with this campaign granted. Like I know we're definitely probably super concerned about AI, but if there's like one place in America where like the voting populace is insulated from AI ripping through white collar industries, it might be the boomers of New York's public congressional district. So there's that. And also like the negative spending is polarized people for him. I do think that his campaign has been stronger and that's kind of why a month out where like, oh, this is like genuinely neck and neck. So it's a hard race to read other than all we have is the geography. I mean, I guess the big wild card, I would say is just like voters under 50, right? Like that was, you know, voters under 50. I mean, yes, well, New York 12 has like 99 percentile for millennials in the country. And that's how Zoran wanted in the primary that's that was that kind of really raised his floor. So just like, what are these? What is it that percentile? What do you? Sorry, 99 percentile compared to other congressional districts in America. Like there are more millennials. Yeah. In New York 12. It's a big, I mean, it's millennials and then boomers. And then ironically the silent generation other than Florida. There are more folks from the silent generation who live in New York 12 than live in any other congressional district outside of Florida. That's super interesting. I guess because like, you know, below Central Park is like entirely millennials. Yeah. Right. Right. Yeah. If you look at a map of the age of the blocks and the district, things like that. Yeah. It is super millennial. So I guess, you know, if it's really West versus East, right? Perhaps it comes down to the millennials south of Central Park, you know, and how many of them come to vote. I think ironically, Schausberg's best demo was not millennials. It was boomers, right? And how many of those millennials were like, Oh, Alex Boris, you know, kind of interesting. And again, it is talking about an issue that me at my white college job cares greatly about. I think if he's going to win, he has to exploit that competitive advantage in the electorate, I would say. Yeah. And I mean, just taking a step back for a second, when you were writing about this race back in like October, November, December, you were more cautious than I was. I was out here telling people like, it is over. Michael Asher is on this race. It's going to be East versus West. The West I always wins. Yeah. This particular East versus West is going to be a slaughter because like, it's six months out and already every single no one is waiting around to endorse every single major endorsement is going for my cut enthusiastically and immediately, including like people who are allied with like the, you know, stight down that area, which geographically should be more Boris, the when Bacher dropped out, I was like, oh my god, like, it's going to win by 30. Like, this is crazy. Why did I, this is going to be boring. And I think the fact that Boris has started with such a disadvantage in terms of institutional endorsements in the clubs and everything like that. And as managed to make you and I'd be like, wow, like, it's basically 50, 50, maybe it's 55, 45 or so like that. Yeah, right. Is an incredible accomplishment. And I think that's why, that's why, but still all what you said is why like, again, if my life was on the line, kind of got to ride with the West side, right, born on the West side, live on the West side. Like, you know, that's the vibe, but still, like, I wouldn't go, you know, it's like, oh, I think this is real. But I mean, let's see, right? I mean, there was again, not that there'd been a ton of public polls and there's been some internal polling. Well, we can tell that like the Schlaasport collapse or his drop per se has helped Michael Asher considerably. And it's like, I imagine that's among older older voters, things like that. But but I definitely like, I mean, it's, it's, it's definitely really live the last month. And I think that, I mean, what might a, you know, when he talks about, oh, you know, I'm experiencing federal state city, I think that's like genuinely compelling to an audience of voters. But it does feel like he's kind of the local candidate, right? And Boris is kind of has stepped into the vacuum with more of the national candidate here. But I mean, then again, we have plenty of evidence that when push comes to show of the local candidate wins a lot of the time. But, but I do think that that to some extent, he's been outflanked on certain issues. What's your feel for turnout right now? In my head, I'm like, this is the box office everyone says with this, the times you're going to write about it every day. Obviously, it's not going to hit, you know, 2025, um, Merrill primary levels. Like, that would be insane. But like, with the sort of bounds that we have being like on one end, the 2022 primary between Maloney and Nabler had like just under 90,000 people turn out. And on the other side, it was 25, the Merrill primary got like 177,000 people. That's crazy. I'm just looking at this now. Wow, I didn't realize it was that low and in 2022, I guess half of the district was in the Hampton. Yeah, that's the other element is that that was like in August, whereas this is June, also a time where a lot of the district is going to be in the Hamptons. Yeah, right. Yeah, no, no, no, no, excellent question, excellent question for me. Actually, one I have not thought about until now. So you're going to watch me like basically figure this out in real time. So 90, what is your process? 90 August 22. That's like quite low. It's also like Biden midterm August by forcated primary definitely higher than that. Mayoral in 21 was 135. And then of course, the mayoral last year was 168. So I mean, again, this is from 2.0 midterm. This is like P. I mean, this is the Super Bowl for the voters of this district. I'm thinking floor 125. And then like what's the upside 135? You know, 140, right? Again, if 168,000 voters in this district came to the polls last year for Mumtani Cuomo. I'm like, well, like shave off 20% of that, right? Well, with that kind of put us out. They would put us around like 135 ish. Yeah. So I'm like, that feels right to me. 125 to 135. I could see that. Yeah, well, making me do it in real time. And I think the like does high turnout benefit anyone in particular. I don't know if it's one of those races. I think actually if anything high turnout might hurt our friends, Mr. Shlossberg and Mr. Codley. Because I just think that the more the more people tuned in the selector, it's probably going to be like, well, like, but also any good argument acknowledges its limitations, right? Like at least in 2022, it's like NADLAR Maloney universal name ID in their bases, basically like real clash of the Titans. And last year, right, it's Cuomo Mumtani, right? Even if the district's media and voters kind of either of those people, it was big, culturally very established, fault lines, well-known voters, things like that. Like Micah and Alex, you know, and Jack, it's not quite the same event even if the macro political conditions are kind of making it like that. So yeah, it'll be interesting. So maybe 125, but let's say that, let's say that plus or minus 10,000. Yeah, it's interesting that you Just more like Maloney and Abler think than I think. of right now is we're looking at this. It blows my mind that Seraj Patel got like, you know, 15 to 20 percent of the vote. Like that's insane to me. He got five and a half percent less than Carolyn Maloney. But I think that actually is a good cautionary note as we're sort of thinking about our comps here where like I'm looking at election districts where like Nabler won by 80 points or something. There aren't actually that many of those. But like Nabler won by 60 points. And I think it'll be good to remember like, okay, but he was going against a weakened opponent who had a somewhat split Eastside coalition or not East side coalition. But like, I don't think Lathor's going to win any election districts by six. Yeah, Jerry's, you know, dropping 80, you know, from the logo. Yeah, right. No, he's dropping 80 on Riverside Drive and Maloney. Telling like eight and nine percent, like fighting it out. No, and it's also, I mean, that race is fun. I think retroactively because number one, Jerry won every assembly district, which is just like, I mean, that's Armageddon basically. But then it's an interesting inflection point in the race, certainly. And I, right, like is Micah dropping 80 points on Riverside Drive? Probably not. To the same extent. I mean, I think like here, if I was, if I was trying to worry Micah or if I was going to be like, "Oh, you know, like, not the case against him, but where it's like, this would keep me up at nine." It's like, "Micah ran in the 69th Assembly District two years ago. He had all of the same supporters that he did now basically." I mean, Eli Northrop, who I love, and there's a really good candidate. He's beating Eli Northrop by like, you know, 5235. It's not like, "Oh man, that was a slaughter." And that's like in his, in a lot of his base. Now granted of course, the more upper West Side precincts he did better in. But it's like, if Alex Boris can even like come close to those types of margins on the West Side, this race gets really live really quickly. And then maybe what's like the case, or it's like, if I'm Alex Boris, I'm just getting worried. I mean, I'm just liking it every single election result where the West Side Candid, it beats the East Side Candid, and the East Side is less cohesive. The West Side Candid's winning precincts in Yorkville, and then it's just annihilating you on the other side. I was looking at the power's home and seagull map. Oh, this is a little bit sick of a moment. BP race from also last year. And the thing that's jumped out to me is, like the colors on the map are what you'd expect where the East Side is, I have powers as green in my map, and home and seagull is orange. And so like the East Side is orange, and the East Side is green and West Side's orange. But the turnout, if you sort of election districts by turnout, well, interesting. The top 10 districts in turnout are all West Side districts. If you could turn out both sides at equal levels, like it's not that you'd have to win districts on the East Side. It's just that you'd have to like juice some of the like, Yorkville vote by like 20 to 30 percent, which is something that I think if Boris's team was here, they would say is in play. Right. I mean, normally again, like the West Side in Yorkville, they kind of, they can steal some votes, pull some precincts. They can make Yorkville super competitive. But I think Yorkville, even though it's not in his assembly district, I think that profiles is decently favorable to Alex Boris. Again, particularly, I'm just going to assume that he's going to have some degree of an advantage over Lasha with younger white collar voters, particularly if they're not on the other side of Central Park. So, right. So, it's like, can oligarch alley be your wall? And then it's like, can you also win Yorkville? Or can you win Steytown, Midtown East, Kipps Bay? Can you not get annihilated in Hell's Kitchen? But it's tough because it's like, we're looking at this math, and it's like, there is a structural advantage that very much points one way. And again, that is why I've gone to my head. I'm still not wav- I'm not moving off of that position. But like, you know, like if I- if I was a danger of losing my life here, like I would be tweaked out, you know? Right. Right. What is your- so we've talked a lot about past races and just your feel for your knee-brows. Generally, when you're covering a race like this, that even this race doesn't have that much polling. It certainly doesn't have enough polling to be confident. Everything we're saying is like, well, the polls are this, but here's all the other stuff. What are you doing to get a feel for actually the Boris campaign has a shot here? I can actually out there, their momentum is like, are you going to a lot of events? Are you reading coverage obsessively? Like, I am, are you like in a lot of group chats with like people who are going to be in favor? Like, what are the signals that you're focused on? And with three weeks out, like, what are the things that I should be paying the most attention to? Yeah, that's great. No, definitely. The signal group chats that will warp your perception of the world. I think so. New York 12 is like, I was born here, right? Roosevelt Hospital, West 59. It's now, of course, a mountain sign I can glamour it, right? I went to school here. I got a church here. Like, it's, it's my home, right? Like, I know it quite well. I know these two. I couldn't, Alex, I, you know, passed in present assembly member, right? So I know both of them well. I'm going to give you a very long-winded answer. Um, I studied college. I studied economics, but I also studied political science, and I did a history minor there at the end. Political science, like, I'm not trying to be rude, but it's like, I don't find it a very useful degree. I got an entire degree basically so that people could hear that I studied political science and then they asked me, oh, do you like politics? And that could like, catalyze a conversation. I should have studied sociology because at least in New York City, and I would suspect, and also in New York State, and I would suspect farther out from that. It's all like sociological, right? Age, race, cultural orientation to things like wealth, right? And that really is the prism with which I analyze these types of elections. I think, again, knowing both of them, I think, is to some degree an advantage because I can perceive how they will relate to different constrictions scenes in this district that I've known for a very long time, right? And because, you know, like the top lines of New York 12 are, it's like, well, it's like super wealthy, super white, you know, not as interesting. And it's like, I kind of hear you, you know, like, there's a reason that the narrative wars is doing more on New York 700, New York 13, but it's still, like, there's still like tons of nuance in this district. And I think also then you get a sense for how different people, different neighborhoods relate to like national politics and also like these political institutions that again really matter in these communities in a way that they don't matter to the same extent in others. So, but I mean, to be honest, there's no perfect formula. It's a lot of, it's a lot of gut. And one of the things that I like about elections for all of the terrible things about politics and there's so much spin, there's so much nonsense. But I think the nice thing about politics is that at least at the end of every campaign, we do get empirical data to spin stops and the numbers or what the numbers are. And like, look, American democracy for the most part is a sham. The Democratic primary in New York City is like our last real like frontier and even that. It's been polluted by big money and misinformation, all this other nonsense. But having that kind of hard data that you can really look at how many people voted for whom, where, and what kind of was the age and racial and class composition of those voters. And you can over time, you know, it's certainly quite informative. It's no perfect. As I said to someone who I very much admire recently, I said, it's not quite a science. It's like an art, you know, and like an artist, right? Like, sometimes your painting or your work is great. And then other times, you know, it's like, well, like we're going to start back over and learn what we did, you know. And sometimes you make a painting that boldly predicts a Mandani squeaker where everyone thinks he's going to lose by 10 points. And you're like, I actually think you could win by one. And then he wins by 50 and then he wins by a million. Yeah. I'm still I still have beef with Emerson because before their poll the day before the election, which times with when I said that sir, I would win. He was down 10 in every poll. And I'm like, wow, like I'm going to say he's going to be the polls by 10. And then it's like, well, he still beat the polls by 10. Yeah, no, it counts. But it's just like it would elect a little tiny bit better. But I think people don't quite. But this is the you and I are, you know, I'm one of the 10 people who paid attention to like the margin and the like, oh, well, this is what the like you would like to be evaluated based on like, you know, how close you are in the probabilistically, everyone else is like, Michael Langs, did he win? And then yeah, right. Exactly. So I'm fortunate about that. You know, I'm probably going to have to go out on a limb again this year and be like, oh, I think Daria leads a a village. I was going to get to her the district north of here. Yeah, I think she's going to win. That's kind of that might be my new my new stepping because like Claire Valdez is like everyone thinks she ironically the media perception around Claire Valdez is even stronger than it is like. I mean, I'm so let's do this part. Yeah, so I'm going to go on this and then I'll I'll circle back to the end here. So in New York seven, we just got that Emerson pole. We did. Valdez is up 23, 3, knows the 21 to 1, 13. I wrote this was a great result. Because I have been so, you know, killed by like everyone in my feed being like, parents gonna win by 20, you guys. I think I locked up, like the Monday endorsement is a, you know, conversation ender in New York 7. You saw it the other way. You thought that like being up like you with this stage in the races is a very solid result for Claire Valdes. - Right, let me, yeah, let me split the baby here because I think we're both correct but we're coming at it from different perspectives. I think you're like, I've heard so much about Claire's gonna win, it's inevitable and she's up to it with a month left. Like what are you guys talking about? Like he's still in this, 40% of the side that he's done it on it up. And I think actually talking to people outside of the socialist laugh, like I was speaking to him. I don't think she'll mind if I told you this. - I would just speak, I tried to do as much as possible but it's very correct. - Yeah, I don't think she might have told you the Sanitza but like I was speaking to Sally Goldenberg at the Claire's Iran rally on Saturday for your listeners. She's a reporter for the New York Times. She's like, I just assume she's gonna win 'cause like Mamdani, so I think like, if you're like maybe in a different ecosystem, you're like, I've heard so much about this comic core or Mamdani, I just assume that it's like a runaway. Whereas I've always been like, I think Reyna so would be ahead in the beginning. I think it'll tie and I think she'll kind of pull away in the last month, like when by maybe upper single digits, maybe 10%. - So from my exactly on pace for that. - I mean, not gonna be kind of not gonna win maybe, like kind of, I just wanna be correct here. - So from my perspective, I'm like, she's not only exactly kind of where, I think if you said to Claire in December, he said, hey, you're gonna be statistically tied or even ahead with a month left, I think everyone would take that totally. So from my perspective, I'm like, if Antonio, like I'm still treating it like Antonio is like live, like he can totally win. I know he's been, he's been to some degree pessimistic, but like, I think he knows he still has a very much, as a shot, right? So I'm treating it from that perspective. And I'm like, well, if you're Antonio right now, like yes, like you're still not, you're not done. But I think you wanna be, you would want to still be up. You still want some degree of cushion with a month left where it's like, if we're like statistically tied, and then it's like four weeks of Maldonin, the DSA, actually OTV operation, I'm just like, I don't, I wouldn't feel great about that if I were him. That's why I described it as I did, is like, this is less than ideal because it's not like, oh, you're done. But he would want with all of his advantages, I think he would want, like he would want a cushion here that he just doesn't have. - I think the interesting thing on that one is, you could make a case that either one is sort of, we should think of as the incumbent, like, yes, the other think of it. But like, if you were trying to think of it as like, one of these people has the institutional advantage of the incumbency and other person is the challenger because the next, you know, you know, you know where the stuff that I do, but like, the election's 101 is the incumbent needs to be ahead, like the challenger is the one who can surge at the end. - Oh, that's interesting. - If you have these interesting ahead at the start, then they're in trouble. And I think that, you know, all of these signifiers of incumbency, you know, Reno so has a bigger office and he's been in it for longer and he has more connections. And so logically, he sort of feels like an incumbent. On the other hand, Valdes has the one connection that like matters. You could also see it that like, she's also sort of the pseudo incumbent. - Anyway, that's fascinating. So this kind of reveals that maybe I wasn't paying attention in political science 101 because that framing is fresh. Speaking though of again, an insurgent who has more runway versus an incumbent who might be so-- - So Narek 13. - Yup, yeah. I think-- - So you're feeling it. You're, you're, Garly's a pelt. She's gonna pull it off. I do think she's gonna win. Yeah, I need to like, this is the problem though, is like you got it, you know, there's a lot of, now I thought I was gonna have another contrarian take, but now like people are already on the set and I'm like, okay, like, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not a contrarian. I might have to go down on this one. So I think ironically, I think to some extent, the race will come down. It'll come down to a million different things, but one of the things it's like, like a neighborhood like Morningside Heights, right? Which was not, which has not really been in the 13th District until relatively recently, right? It's like, you know that neighborhood, I know that neighborhood, a lot of love for that neighborhood, but it's like, you know, you have some Columbia students, but it's like faculty and it's older, progressive liberal, pretty decent Jewish population as well. Voters like that are gonna really, I think, decide it, because it's like, are they going to see, Darly Elite says like a Columbia student, like an ultra organizer, right? Like is she like a student radical? Or are they gonna be like, wow, like she's kinda like AOC, she even has like, the three names, right? Like, are we gonna have our own AOC in Congress in New York 13? And then how do they look at Espaya, who like, he has absentee in that neighborhood, like totally, you know, only takes A-packed money, but it's like, well, he's like undocumented, he's got an immigration, like, how will those voters feel about it? That I think, in my opinion, can swing. The entire race, it's, I do think that over the next four weeks, because people like the underdog versus the incumbent narrative, it's kind of the thing that really takes off. I do think we're gonna see more and more eyes, kind of diverted to that district. And it's huge on Hassan, like, huh? Right, yeah. The eyes are there. The eyes are there. Yeah, that's the thing. They're coming. There was a good tweet from like, some anonymous account and it was like, the only people talking about New York 13 are Michael Lang, Hassan, and Inwood Indivisible, which was very fun. And I enjoyed that because I'm the best. You know, I know Indivisible, like, broadly has been like, well, like, you know, they struggled during the Biden years, like, Inwood Indivisible goes so hard. There's a string of, I would say, plurality white, majority white neighborhoods, west of Broadway in Washington, I'd say Inwood. And they love Robert Jackson. They're super organized. Like, those folks go so hard and they're like, all with Dariel Itza. And that part of Upper Manhattan and also the West Bronx, like, that's not Drianos like base, say, I didn't quote. But there's, but the problem is is that for, in his base for the longest time, there's been like a really powerful counter mobilizing force. And they seem to be like, we're with Dariel Itza. The Robert Jackson endorsement to me is like, come to Robert Jackson's like, he's kind of awesome. And he also, like, what, again, when Espire tried to, to unsee him, really well-funded challenger had tons of labor support, things like that. Robert Jackson crushed him in a district that, again, Robert Jackson's district is like majority Hispanic when you look at the census. But then when you look at who's voting, it's like, oh, there are a lot of older white folks and young families in Inwood and Hudson Heights. And that that's kind of more so than almost, maybe, any other congressional district, you are 13, is like the, don't look at the census, look at the electorate. And the electorate is like very, racially diverse and quite well split between Hispanic, white and black voters. And Espire had his entire career has been built on, we're turning out Hispanic, namely Dominican voters. I don't really, it's like a war of attrition. I don't really have to, build support with these other voting blocks, things like that. Like it's just all based. But it's like, your base is now a third of the district. You could go hard there. And if you're losing white and black voters, it's all hard. - The idea of Morningside Heights deciding that one, I did not have in my head. And that now, I mean, if that's true, I feel much more concentrated about her than, I like her odds of Morningside Heights. I have faced in my Morningside Heights brethren that they're gonna, - Yeah. - But wrapping up here, back to your 12th or second. - Yeah, of course. - What is the Mamdani perspective on your 12th? And the way I'll frame that is, you run in these circles, don't say anything that you're just gonna get your trouble. - Of course not. - Do you have any insight into the Morse cats angle here? Like Morse cats is one of my Mnani's key advisors and is sort of like, you know, forest gump of Democratic politics right now. He's just absolutely everywhere. He's like running everyone's campaign all at once. And it's just tough, you know? Like I can barely do three jobs at once. I don't know how you do 10, you know? But yeah. - That man is everywhere. He shot mad with Lashar. Generally, if you pay very, very close attention and you're listening, my sense is that most people very close to this race believe that Lashar is the more progressive candidate. He has a deeper commitment to certain progressive principles and has proven that in a deeper way over more years. But it's very, very close. And I would say that he is working very hard to keep this a secret, which I find to be a weird decision. And so in that environment, do you think Mnani like and his team would prefer Michael Asher to win? And do you think that if it looks like it's really a coin flip, they might like, I think there's no chance he endorses, but like, do something like, you know, you mentioned Sally Goldberg, maybe she wrote a story that's like, sources close to Mnani have shared with me that, you know, it's a little anonymous, like that'd be interesting. - I think so. - Where do you think he goes the other way? And like, I guess you're like excited about AI and there's like a Mnani Boris, thank you. I think if you're Saron, I mean like again Morris advises Saron, but he also like he is a business you know and he's got clients and things like that and I think that not always like like his incentive to be supporting Michael is like very different than like Saron's incentive for like staying out of the race right it's just kind of the nature of some degree conflicting incentives or just different different attitudes things like that. I think if you're Saron I mean like he he knows both of them from Albany you know I think that Michael was I mean he was very famously included in that article New York Times article after Mumbani won the primary of like the inner circle of like surrogates and things like that. I think if you're Saron you're probably not loving how they've handled public questions about like oh like you endorsed him like how do you feel and like they're just kind of like well like yeah I was shocking to do it again right like yeah they're stunned. Well I think you know the forces that don't like Mayor Mumbani and the district are far better organized than the forces who do you know. You're a trouble is a lot of progressive leaning voters who I think feel kind of homeless in this campaign but they're not super well organized you know we'll see like what the working family's party does or does not do right. So I think if you're the mayor here you're like I'm he's literally now a constituent of this district which is quite funny to think about. Whoever this is like a live race it's going to be very close. Let me like if I'm him I'm like my plate is full like with all this other stuff you know particularly all these other races where it's like I feel like his the calculus to weighing in is so much clearer or even weighing in tacitling right steering support things like that whereas here I think it's more just like let me let me ensure that whoever the next congress person is comes you the morning of June 24th roughly the Democratic nominee that we are in a position to grow and build because that that will be a big potential ally you know that's someone that you would you really would want to be not just like on your side politically but kind of an advocate for the city and the administration in Washington so I think you know you'd kind of have to play that carefully. Yeah that's not a sexy answer or anything like that but I think it's probably the God on his truth. Totally. So just to wrap up you actually get to moderate a debate with all these people so you are experienced asking them questions just like a million years ago that debate. When and if I get these candidates on what are some questions or what's one question this is my favorite part of your podcast is when you ask people and I I did not come prepared. How will you not only advocate for your constituents in the 12th district but the constituents of all the all of all the congressional districts in New York City and how do you how do you how will you help New Yorkers or less fortunate than your constituents I think that's kind of the big one is like you know again because of the national and the prestige of this district and all those other things is that you know like you get on the sixth train you know you can you can be in a whole different world really fast and I think that the representative of this district for what it represents needs to also be a very leading voice for those significantly less fortunate who live only a couple subway stops away you know it can't all be yeah CNN press heads and things like that you know you need to to really show up in those neighborhoods and care and I ran and you know that was that was kind of John Lindsay you know back before this district was consolidated and things like that you know I think that that used to be a little bit more top of mind and eat those of the representatives here so I think it's important to continue that. And I think I mean I think Jerry has a strong record of going to bat for where people in greater New York. Yeah so that's a legacy that they're both trying to you know carry on carry forward. That's great Michael and thank you so so much for coming on the back gas of the phenomenal ends I look forward to being in touch with you over the next four three weeks since we become completely consumed with these this primary and yeah thank you so so much it's great. It's a special pleasure thank you for having me. Thanks for listening to District 12, a Ghost Runner production. My producer is Jonathan Jalbert. We're also very lucky to have original music from Peter Day. If you like this podcast please subscribe to Ghost Runner blog on Substack and to the podcast on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We have a bunch of great things coming and feel free to share it with your friends and family especially if you are friends with or related to Michael Asher Alex Boris or Jack Schlossberg we'd absolutely love to have all of them on.